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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Conference championship episode?

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Speaker 1: He's Pat Fitzmorris. I'm apperold. We are on the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel where we will be on Sunday as

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Speaker 1: well live. It's going to be a fun countdown to

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Speaker 1: kickoff as we will get into our prop bets and

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Speaker 1: more on Sunday. But for the two games that are happening,

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Speaker 1: the NFC and the AFC Championship games, Pat, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be an interesting weekend. We have three football games

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Speaker 1: left in the twenty five to twenty sixth season. How

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Speaker 1: are you doing well, Matt, Yeah, it is going to

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Speaker 1: be interesting.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it would have been a little more interesting either

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Speaker 2: if the Broncos had a healthy bon Knicks or if

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Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills were able to win and set up

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Speaker 2: a Titanic AFC East showdown for the AFC Championship.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think there's a couple things that we're

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Speaker 1: going to dive into the game. Obviously both games, and

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Speaker 1: we can kind of look at the Bonex situation and

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Speaker 1: the injury, but just to kind of take a look

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Speaker 1: back at the Sean McDermott situation, do you think Sean

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Speaker 1: mcder Let's say he did get into the championship game

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Speaker 1: and he lost at New England. Like the Patriots beat

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Speaker 1: the Bills in the AFC Championship game. Do you think

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Speaker 1: the Bills still fires on McDermott. That's a good question.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure why McDermott was the one who, you know,

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Speaker 2: had to fall on the sword here and not Brandon Bean.

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Speaker 1: You know, they promoted him, they gave him a ring,

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Speaker 1: he got a promotion.

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Speaker 2: It's not like McDermott was the one responsible for Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen throwing to Brandon Cooks and you know, Tyrrell Shavers

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Speaker 2: and all these guys in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Like, I don't know, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they would have because I'm sure Bill's fans feel

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Speaker 2: like they're on the treadmill here, and how frustrating it

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Speaker 2: has to be for them to not get to a

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Speaker 2: super Bowl at the height of Josh Allen's powers. I

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Speaker 2: totally get that, but I am kind of surprised that

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Speaker 2: it's McDermott alone taking the fall.

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Speaker 1: So Josh Allen's twenty nine years old. If the Patriots

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Speaker 1: win on Sunday and make the Super Bowl, Drake may

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Speaker 1: will have made a super Bowl in two years before.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen has made a super Bowl during his entire

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Speaker 1: tenure in the NFL. It is remarkable, and it really

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Speaker 1: is Patrick Mahomes's fault. Like, if you want to look

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Speaker 1: at why John Harbaugh and why Sean McDermott both got fired,

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Speaker 1: it's because in the year that Mahomes was not good

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Speaker 1: and not in the playoffs, neither Lamar Jackson nor Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and

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Speaker 1: thus both teams decide to fire their longtime head coach.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen years for John Harbaugh, nine years for Sean McDermott.

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Speaker 1: But I also think you can't underestimate the moving into

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Speaker 1: the new stadium as to how that was going to

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Speaker 1: affect the Bills. That if you go in there after

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Speaker 1: a championship, or you go in there after a Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl appearance or something of a high note, and it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're really close, and now the new stadium and all

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Speaker 1: this new excitement. I understand why the Bills did what

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Speaker 1: they did and made the move on Sean McDermott, because

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Speaker 1: you can't be losing, even in gut wrenching fashion, you

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Speaker 1: can't be losing to Bonex and the Denver Broncos. When

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Speaker 1: you think you run the AFC and you know what's

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Speaker 1: coming next year, you know what's going to happen. You're

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Speaker 1: going to get a Bengals team with Joe Burrow that

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Speaker 1: will be formidable, you know. Mahomes now getting back on

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Speaker 1: the horse here and trying to resurrect what happened last year.

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Speaker 1: We know that the Broncos aren't going anywhere, the Patriots

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Speaker 1: aren't going anywhere. So the AFC has gotten more difficult

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Speaker 1: for the Buffalo Bills. This was their year, this was

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Speaker 1: their window to make the Super Bowl. And I do

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Speaker 1: think that there's a lot of worry in Buffalo about,

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Speaker 1: uh oh, are we going to miss this with Josh Allen?

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Speaker 1: Are we not going to get to a super Bowl

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Speaker 1: with Josh Allen. It's such a great fan base.

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Speaker 2: Those fans are so loyal, so rabid, and you know what,

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Speaker 2: fan base has been kicked in the teeth more over

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Speaker 2: the years. Four straight Super Bowl losses. Now, this not

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Speaker 2: being able to get there with the best quarterback of well,

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Speaker 2: one of the best quarterbacks of the era.

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Speaker 1: It's just it has to be frustrating. All Right, Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the AFC Championship game that will be the

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Speaker 1: first of the two, the Patriots on the road against

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. I will say this at the top,

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Speaker 1: this number at four and a half, five or five

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Speaker 1: and a half, this number factor directly into the same

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Speaker 1: trend that we talked about last week and why I

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Speaker 1: took the Bears at plus four last week. You just

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Speaker 1: don't see teams in the playoffs being home dogs of

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Speaker 1: four points or more. Teams that are four point dogs

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Speaker 1: are more in the postseason over the last fifty years

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Speaker 1: are now ten and zero straight up. This is obviously

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Speaker 1: the Jared Stidham factor. In his first start, he becomes

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Speaker 1: the first quarterback to ever start a Championship round game

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Speaker 1: without taking a single snap in the regular season. Pat

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Speaker 1: how do you handle this handicap here with an unknown

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Speaker 1: at quarterback for the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: I have seen a lot of people talking up Jared

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Speaker 2: Stidham on Twitter. Okay, the guys made four NFL starts

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Speaker 2: and he did throw for two hundred and nineteen or

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Speaker 2: more yards in all four of those starts, six touchdown passes,

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Speaker 2: but he also threw four interceptions, fumbled four times, and

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Speaker 2: took thirteen sacks. The Patriots defense, Matt as you know,

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Speaker 2: looked outstanding against the Texans, and I realized the Texans

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Speaker 2: don't have a high flying offense, but the Patriots really

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Speaker 2: smothered them. And obviously we're doing a great job of

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Speaker 2: taking the ball away. Bronco's running game hasn't been especially good.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Denver can run on New England or

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Speaker 2: really lean on the running game like you would want

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Speaker 2: to lean on the running game with a backup quarterback

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Speaker 2: starting for you. Denver's defense, you know, undeniably terrific, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's any better than Houston's defense. And

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Speaker 2: the New England offense was able to do enough in

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Speaker 2: that game. They were able to generate enough on the

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Speaker 2: ground with the running game, and even though it wasn't

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Speaker 2: Drake May's finest hour, he you know, through an interception,

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Speaker 2: lost two fumbles, took five sacks, but he made a

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Speaker 2: few plays when he needed to. So I actually like

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Speaker 2: the Patriots in this game, bucking all the trends about

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Speaker 2: the road favorite of more than a field goal being

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Speaker 2: a bad bets. I don't have a real strong feeling

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Speaker 2: on the total, which is what forty.

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Speaker 1: One and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think it's been pretty stable there, but I would

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Speaker 2: slightly lean toward the under there just because it's so

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Speaker 2: hard to imagine the Broncos offense putting up twenty points

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Speaker 2: in this game. And that's why I can't take the

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Speaker 2: points with the Broncos. I just I don't think they

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Speaker 2: can generate enough offense.

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Speaker 1: Matt, Yeah, there's a lot of positive trends for the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: So I gave you that's the big one going into

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Speaker 1: the four points or more that it's ten and oh,

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Speaker 1: So is it due to lose? Maybe? But the Patriots

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Speaker 1: are twelve and oh straight up and ten and two

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Speaker 1: against this when they are favored by three points or

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Speaker 1: more this season, Drake May has never lost with Mike

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Speaker 1: Rabel when they've been favored by three points or more. Additionally,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots have been the best AFC team on the

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Speaker 1: road this year. They are eight and zero straight up.

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Speaker 1: They are seven to one against the spread. They are

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Speaker 1: the second best team against the number over all. The

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Speaker 1: Seahawks are eight and one against the spread as well,

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Speaker 1: which I've talked about the Seahawks and their domination on

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Speaker 1: the road and why Magma. I mean, I think if

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks could pick, they would put the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: on the Eastern time zone because they have been so

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Speaker 1: dominant going east and playing in the Eastern dime zone

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Speaker 1: this season under Mike McDonald. But now they're at home

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Speaker 1: and they've won. We'll get to that game next. But

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Speaker 1: they've won eleven straight, ten straight games in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: at home. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots

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Speaker 1: handle the environment in Denver. So if you see the

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Speaker 1: way Drake May in New England in Foxborough, he's a

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Speaker 1: different quarterback. Why all three losses this year came at

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Speaker 1: home for the Patriots. They don't for whatever reason, they

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Speaker 1: don't perform their best at home, so they go on

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Speaker 1: the road where it's a hostile environment. They've got to

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Speaker 1: be much more precise. And maybe Drake May is a

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Speaker 1: better quarterback in this offense because he has to get

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Speaker 1: rid of the football because if he hangs onto the

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Speaker 1: football against this Denver pass rush, this is the recipe

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Speaker 1: for disaster for the New England. He got away with

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Speaker 1: it in both home playoff games. He was stripsacked multiple times,

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Speaker 1: he was nearly picked off multiple times, He threw late

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Speaker 1: multiple times. Things that we did not see during the

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Speaker 1: regular season, and now this is his first career road

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Speaker 1: start in a place in which Patriot fans know all

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Speaker 1: about it. This is the House of Horrors. This is

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Speaker 1: the one place where in October I said to Mike

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Speaker 1: Vrabel and everyone in New England, get the darn number

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Speaker 1: one seed. Don't have to go to Denver, a place

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Speaker 1: where even Tom Brady was zeroing too in AFC champ

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Speaker 1: Chip games, because that building is just so difficult for

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Speaker 1: the Patriots to go there and win. And if Drake

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Speaker 1: May does do this, and you're right, and Patriots go

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Speaker 1: in there and they win and they cover and they

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Speaker 1: exercise all these demons from the past, this would be

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Speaker 1: cathartic for so many people my age who remember the

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Speaker 1: Orange Crush, who remember John Elway, who remembered that the

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Speaker 1: Patriots were just a doormat to the Broncos for pretty

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Speaker 1: much two decades when they were ruling the AFC and

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Speaker 1: dominating and going and winning Super Bowls. This is going

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Speaker 1: to be Drake May's most difficult test, and he has

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Speaker 1: got to be more careful with the football. If the

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Speaker 1: Patriots don't turn the ball over, I think you're right.

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Speaker 1: I'm very concerned about the Patriots with the turnovers.

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Speaker 2: Though, hearing your take on this, it makes me feel

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Speaker 2: even better about the under and that might be my

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Speaker 2: favorite beat of you know, favorite sideer total from either

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Speaker 2: of these two games. Like I just it is going

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Speaker 2: to be hard for Drake may to Like no one

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Speaker 2: and no one is dicing up.

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Speaker 1: This Broncos defense. It's just too good, yep.

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Speaker 2: I think maybe the only thing that could short circuit

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Speaker 2: the under here would be well, turnovers, turnovers in short

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Speaker 2: field situations, Yeah, that would be a problem. But otherwise,

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Speaker 2: you know, even though the weather I think is supposed

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Speaker 2: to be pretty pristine for this game, that should not

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Speaker 2: be any sort of hindrance to either offense. But I

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Speaker 2: do think the defenses are going to be major hindrances

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Speaker 2: to each of these offenses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Jared Stidham is the big question mark, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is an un in the postseason. We have seen

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Speaker 1: a quarterback start a game in the postseason, not championship game,

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Speaker 1: but a playoff game where he did not play in

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Speaker 1: the regular season. Those quarterbacks are one in seven in

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Speaker 1: those games. The only win was Frank Reich by the

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills up against the Houston Oilers. Back in nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety two. It's been a while since we've seen a

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Speaker 1: win like this. Jared's did them fourth round pick for

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. Everyone's talking about him and the fact that,

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Speaker 1: well he got two contracts from the Broncos, not just one,

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Speaker 1: but the first day higher the first quarterback that was

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Speaker 1: brought in by Sean Payton was Jared Stidham. So clearly

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Speaker 1: there is a liking there. Then he gave him another contract,

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Speaker 1: he kept him and re signed him to back up

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Speaker 1: bo Nicks. He's not mobile. This is the problem I

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Speaker 1: think for this Broncos offense. They've been so rpo heavy

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Speaker 1: and why I liked them last week because I thought

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Speaker 1: bow Nicks would be able to run, and he did

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Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills. It's how he broke his ankle

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Speaker 1: was scrambling and running and the rollouts that they do

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Speaker 1: all the time. That is not Jared Stidham's game. Remember

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Speaker 1: he was drafted as one of the potential air appearents

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Speaker 1: to Tom Brady, meaning five step, seven step drop hand

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Speaker 1: back in the pocket, survey the defense and go ahead

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Speaker 1: and pick apart whatever you see. Josh McDaniels was his

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator when he was drafted by the Patriots. Everyone's

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Speaker 1: talking about the fact that this guy is Sean Paton's

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Speaker 1: you know, he feels about him. The Patriots know this guy.

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Speaker 1: They know him really well. Josh McDaniels knows him really well.

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Speaker 1: They know what he likes to do, what he doesn't

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Speaker 1: like to do, they know what he struggles with. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a huge advantage of the Patriots know this guy.

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Speaker 1: I think if they didn't have any real background with

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Speaker 1: him or didn't have a real feel for what he's

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Speaker 1: capable of, how many hours of tape do the Patriots

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Speaker 1: have of practice and other things with Jared Stidham, Like

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Speaker 1: they know this guy, so I have a Patriots future.

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Speaker 1: I don't like five and a half. That feels too

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Speaker 1: heavy to me, So I think if it goes back

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Speaker 1: to five and a half. I know hard rock bets

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Speaker 1: at five, and other books have been at five and

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Speaker 1: a half. I think if it goes back to five

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Speaker 1: and a half, you can go ahead and take the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: or sorry, take the Broncos at plus five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I do like that side because I think it's too heavy,

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Speaker 1: But this number might come down and you might be

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Speaker 1: able to get four. You might be able to get

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Speaker 1: three and a half at some point by the time

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Speaker 1: we get to kick off. If it goes that way,

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Speaker 1: I do think your side is decent. I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: the Bronco money line just as a hedge off my

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Speaker 1: Patriots future. But this is a game where people expect

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Speaker 1: the Patriots to win and the numbers. It's not gonna

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Speaker 1: stun me either way. The Patriots lose this game, I

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Speaker 1: won't be stunned. The Patriots win this game, I won't

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Speaker 1: be stunned just because the Bonux factor pat is so significant.

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Speaker 2: Where do you think this number lands would kick off?

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Speaker 2: Matt if you had to guess four, Do you think

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Speaker 2: it comes down to four?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think I think the money's gonna come in

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Speaker 1: late on Denver. I think it's ahead. I think the

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Speaker 1: driving it up to five and a half was a headfake.

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Speaker 1: I think that was the professionals just trying to get

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Speaker 1: that number up to five and a half. But I

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Speaker 1: have talked to one person that I really do respect

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Speaker 1: a lot, and he thinks Denver's in really try a

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Speaker 1: lot of trouble here. And he thinks because of the offense,

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Speaker 1: if you can't run the football, and he doesn't think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to run the ball on the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and frankly, the numbers would bear it out. When Christian

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Speaker 1: and Zalez, Robert Splane, and Milton Williams are all on

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Speaker 1: the field for the Paytriots, they are sixteen and o

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Speaker 1: this year. They have not lost, so they're sixteen and

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Speaker 1: three overall. But when they have their healthy defense, they

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Speaker 1: haven't lost. So you take a look at what happens

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Speaker 1: defensively for the Patriots against the running attack, and you

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Speaker 1: put it all on Jared Stidham's shoulders. And I know

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Speaker 1: he's got Courtland and I know he's got some deep threats,

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Speaker 1: some players that are going to be wanting to get

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Speaker 1: the football down the field. But they've got a secondary

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Speaker 1: right now. And I know Carlton Davis got banged up

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Speaker 1: in the game and we'll see what his status is

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Speaker 1: coming up for the Patriots on Sunday. But you have

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Speaker 1: arguably the best shutdown cornerback in the AFC and Christian

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Speaker 1: Gonzales And so now who are you throwing to tight

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Speaker 1: ends like this is? This is tough. Denver has to

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Speaker 1: run the football and play the rpo game because that's

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Speaker 1: how their offense is built.

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Speaker 2: We had seen Woody Marks run for more than one

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Speaker 2: hundred yards against a pretty respectable Steelers run defense, fourteen

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Speaker 2: carries for seventeen yards. Last week against the Patriots, they

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Speaker 2: could not run the ball at all on New England.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not even close, guys. Today's show is being brought

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Speaker 1: ticket to the big game. Coming up this weekend. We've

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Speaker 3: hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be twenty

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Speaker 3: one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms of conditions apply.

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Speaker 3: Concerned about gambling in Florida, I call one eight three

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Speaker 3: three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you

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Speaker 3: know as a gambling problem wants help, called one eight

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Speaker 3: In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Virginia, we go to the Lake Game and into an

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Speaker 1: NFC West matchup, and it's not shocking. I think when

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Speaker 1: you and I first did this conversation, I talked about

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Speaker 1: taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl. At plus

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Speaker 1: one forty, you're guaranteed to get a team into the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. If you made that bet, you're guaranteed you're

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Speaker 1: gonna have one NFC West team. In which one will

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Speaker 1: it be? Well, I think you and I disagree here.

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Speaker 1: Number opened up at one and a half. It's been

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Speaker 1: bet to two and a half. That's where Vegas opened

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Speaker 1: for Seattle. This is a Rams team that has not

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Speaker 1: looked good and back to back wins. They were fortunate

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Speaker 1: to beat the Panthers. They were extremely fortunate to beat

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Speaker 1: the Bayer. Where are you on Rams on the road

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Speaker 1: against the Seahawks?

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's revisit the two meetings between these

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Speaker 2: teams during the regular season. Matt so The Rams won

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Speaker 2: the first game twenty one to nineteen. In Week eleven,

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Speaker 2: Josh Meyers, the Seattle kicker, missed a sixty one yard

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Speaker 2: field go on the final play of the game that

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Speaker 2: would have won it. Seattle actually outgained the Rams four

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Speaker 2: hundred and fourteen to two hundred and forty nine, but

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Speaker 2: Sam Donald threw four interceptions. The Rams only at the

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Speaker 2: ball for about twenty two minutes in that game, but

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Speaker 2: that was mostly because Donald kept throwing interceptions that left

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Speaker 2: the Rams with short fields. Two of those interceptions led

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Speaker 2: directly to Rams touchdowns. I think one of them set

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Speaker 2: the Rams up at the three yard line. Second game,

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Speaker 2: Seahawks win thirty eight thirty seven in overtime. In Week sixteen,

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Speaker 2: a barn burner nine hundred and ninety six yards of

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Speaker 2: offense in that game, the Rams outgained the Steelers, this

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Speaker 2: time five hundred and eighty one to four hundred and fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Once again, turnovers were kind of an issue for the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: They committed three of them, including two or Sam Donald interceptions,

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Speaker 2: and the Rams committed none. Stafford had four hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty seven passing yards pukin Nakua, two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: five receiving yards, and two touchdowns, and yet Seattle was

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Speaker 2: able to get the win. All told, in these two games,

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Speaker 2: the Rams outscored the Seahawks by one point and outgained

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Speaker 2: the Seahawks by one yard, so this is a pretty

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Speaker 2: even matchup. We get quite a bit of offense in

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Speaker 2: those games, not a ton of points in the first game,

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Speaker 2: only forty, but Seattle did pile up the yardage just

365
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 2: didn't amount to a lot of points, and we also

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Speaker 2: got a lot of Sam Donald turnovers in both of

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Speaker 2: these games. I like the Rams here. Matt Seattle has

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Speaker 2: the better defense. The Rams have the better offense and

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Speaker 2: the better quarterback. And I don't mind that the Rams

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Speaker 2: have had to struggle in their first two playoff games,

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Speaker 2: like they've showed resilience on the road against a pair

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Speaker 2: of teams have threw something close to their best punch

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Speaker 2: against the Rams. Seahawks didn't really get a first test,

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Speaker 2: or much of a test at all from the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers have had two really good tests. Maybe that

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00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 2: is important if this game comes down to crunch time

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00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 2: at the end in the fourth quarter. And oh, by

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Speaker 2: the way, the Seahawks owin six against the spread in

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Speaker 2: their last six home games against the Rams. So I

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Speaker 2: do like the Rams here, and I like the over.

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Speaker 1: So let's get into this because I'm the trend guy.

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Speaker 1: So there's all sorts of trends here in this game.

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Speaker 1: So teams with the rest advantage, and the Seahawks will

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Speaker 1: have the rest advantage. Here are twenty one and seven

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Speaker 1: straight up at home in the postseason since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and three. In two thousand and four, the Rams did

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Speaker 1: not cover in either game, but they won both games.

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Speaker 1: This is very rare. The Rams are the first team

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era to lose against the number

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Speaker 1: in both the wild card round and the Divisional round

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Speaker 1: and yet be playing in this round. It's very rare

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Speaker 1: to be able to get through it without covering. And

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Speaker 1: then you look at where we've seen here for teams

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Speaker 1: just you know, at home favorites have been. Last week,

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Speaker 1: favorites went four to zero straight up, three and one

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Speaker 1: against the spread, just the third time in the last

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Speaker 1: twenty years that that happened. And I think if you

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Speaker 1: look at if you look at the Rams third consecutive

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Speaker 1: road game that they're playing since realignment in twenty two.

400
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: In two thousand and two, teams playing on their third

401
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,439
Speaker 1: consecutive road game into the regular season or the playoffs

402
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Speaker 1: covering at just a thirty seven percent clip, and when

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Speaker 1: teams are listed as a dog, they're covering out a

404
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Speaker 1: twenty four percent clip. In the playoffs, teams that are

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Speaker 1: on a third consecutive road game are just twelve and

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Speaker 1: thirty straight up and nine and twenty eight straight up

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Speaker 1: as an underdog. So the Rams are trying to buck

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Speaker 1: every one of these trends here that it's really hard

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Speaker 1: to go on the playoff into the playoffs and win

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Speaker 1: three consecutive road games but also be favored in two

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Speaker 1: of them, not cover, and then get to the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: My problem with the Rams is their inconsistency. They just,

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Speaker 1: for whatever reason, they're very inconsistent, and they're walking into

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Speaker 1: a place where you can't be inconsistent. The twelfth man

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Speaker 1: in this building is going to be ferocious. I mean

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Speaker 1: that game was over at kickoff against the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 1: opening kickoff return touchdown game over. It was seven to nothing.

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Speaker 1: The Niners scored six points up against this defense. It's

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Speaker 1: the number one defense in football, and they're going to

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Speaker 1: pressure a quarterback that I like in Matthew Stafford. But

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Speaker 1: if you can make him move, and the Bears made

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Speaker 1: him move. You saw him go through a really big

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Speaker 1: period in the second half of that football game where

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00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 1: things are not going well at all for the Rams,

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Speaker 1: and the Bears had the football in overtime with a

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Speaker 1: chance to go down and kick the field goal, and well,

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00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 1: the ghost of Caleb Williams showed up and he made

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00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: a horrible throw and DJ Moore ran an awful route

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Speaker 1: and it was just a bad combination interception, and then

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Speaker 1: the field goal gets kicked in the game is won

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Speaker 1: by the Rams. They're very lucky to be here. I

432
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 1: can't back a team that I don't think that should

433
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: be here, and I have a future on Seattle. I'm

434
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 1: not sure I'm touching this. I may just sit back

435
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 1: and go, you know what, let this play out, because

436
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: I like the Seahawks. I'm probably not even gonna hedge this.

437
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: I like Seattle. I think they win the game. I

438
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 1: think they cover, but if I was gonna bet it,

439
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: I would lay the two and a half points just

440
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,679
Speaker 1: because of the home field advantage, and this is a

441
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 1: really hard place to play pad it is.

442
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: Admittedly, the Rams have not been the same team in

443
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 2: the last month or so that they were for most

444
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 2: of the regular season, when they were consistently you know,

445
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: top team, number two, number three in the NFL power rankings.

446
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: They were always way out there, and with good reason.

447
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 2: I thought they were probably the most complete team for

448
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 2: most of the season as far as offense, defense, great

449
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 2: defensive line. That hasn't been showing up as much lately.

450
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 2: But I still think that they are capable of being

451
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: that complete team. And I just what I can't get

452
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: past here is the gap between these two quarterbacks, both

453
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 2: in terms of playoff experience just overall talent. I just

454
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: I don't want to be on the Sam Donald side

455
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 2: of a Sam Donald versus Matthew Stafford duel.

456
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: Ultimately, really, even with the way he played this year,

457
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: you don't I Sam Donald still.

458
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 2: He was you know, he played really well during the

459
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 2: regular season this year. He played really well for most

460
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: of the regular season last year and kind of wilted

461
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 2: when it mattered most down the stretch. Donald against top

462
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 2: competition is different than Donald against you know, losing teams,

463
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 2: five hundred teams, and we kind of saw that during

464
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 2: the regular season with the five interceptions in these two

465
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 2: games or was it six interceptions in these two games

466
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 2: against the Rams, I mean, he was a turnover machine

467
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 2: and these I just wonder, if you know, if we

468
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: get the bad version of Sam Donald, I think Seattle

469
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 2: is gonna have a hard time winning this game, even

470
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: with the twelfth man.

471
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: There are some crazy numbers. Sean McVay against the Seahawks

472
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 1: at night in primetime, it's happened five times. He's five

473
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: and oh ats in those games, covering the spread Bay

474
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,479
Speaker 1: over five points. But Sam Donald and Mike McDonald whin

475
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: they're together at night. They are six and oh straight

476
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 1: up in those games. McDonald's four and seven straight up

477
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 1: with every other quarterback while he's been the coach of

478
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, including zero to four ats with Gino Smith

479
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: and five and one ats with Sam Donald. So things

480
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: have really changed here. And again, I just think defense,

481
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: I don't like the Rams defense. I thought the Rams

482
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: again are lucky to be in this game. And defensively,

483
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: I'm going to back a Seahawks team that I think

484
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: we'll be able to get after and make the quarterback

485
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,479
Speaker 1: in Matthew staff move And as long as you make

486
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 1: him move, you can make him uncomfortable. And granted, look

487
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 1: at you know, people are looking at Sam Darnold. Sorry,

488
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 1: they're looking at you know, the Patriots and what's happening

489
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 1: with Drake May and the MVP conversation with Matthew Stafford,

490
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 1: and they're like, you know, both these guys aren't playing

491
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 1: well in the playoffs. And I would agree. I mean,

492
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 1: both guys that dominated in the regular season, this is

493
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 1: the playoffs, guys, it gets more difficult. Guys aren't going

494
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: to go out there and throw for four touchdown passes

495
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: every week. It just doesn't happen. These defenses are really good,

496
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: and now they're both on the road, and if they

497
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 1: both win, they're on a collision course in San Francisco.

498
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: And I think if the NFL was to pick who

499
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 1: they want to win, La New England is the game

500
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: that they want. It's mcveigh's revenge, it's MVP versus MVP.

501
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: There's storylines all over the place if we get there,

502
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: and remember, the super Bowl is and we don't want

503
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: to admit it, but it's a TV show. Okay, It's

504
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: the most popular and most watched TV show every year.

505
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: So not to say that Jared's isn't a great story.

506
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: But if you're the NFL, you want Denver and Jared

507
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: Stidham in the super Bowl and talk about him for

508
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 1: two weeks. Or it's Seattle and Denver in both teams

509
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: are west of the Mississippi that are playing on a

510
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 1: West coast super Bowl. It's the super Bowl. Everybody watches it.

511
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: But they want big numbers, they want big ratings. We

512
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 1: already have problems with the bad Bunny situation. People are

513
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 1: ticked off about that, about the halftime show. You add

514
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: in two teams that aren't that sexy and aren't that interesting. Okay,

515
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play conspiracy theorist, but I am

516
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: playing conspiracy theorists just to say, be careful when it

517
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: comes to the zebras, like there could be calls that

518
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: go both the Rims and the Patriots way on Sunday.

519
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: Hey, I'm I'm the guy betting the Matthew Stafford Drake

520
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 2: May super Bowl here, Matt, you don't have to tell

521
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: me so.

522
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: And I think it's a really I think it's exactas

523
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: are a really good way when you're talking about betting

524
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: right now, and if you're looking at value, there is

525
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: some really good numbers out there in the market when

526
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 1: it comes to exact as to take Patriots rams rams

527
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 1: over the Patriots ramp patrol the rams, like, there's some

528
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: numbers you guys can accumulate that won't be available come

529
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 1: the super Bowl once we get the matchup, and you

530
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: can take both home games, you know, both home teams

531
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 1: with Seattle against Denver or Denver over Seattle. Look at

532
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 1: the exact of markets and shop around, because that is

533
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: a really good way of approaching what you might be

534
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: able to get on and take. Here for a number perspective. Guys.

535
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: Remember you guys can track these bets and stay accountable.

536
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 1: Level up By downloading the Betting Pros app with Sportsbooks Sinc.

537
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: You and antomatically track all your bets across all major

538
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your bet performance

539
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: by sport and bet type, including picks, props, and parlays.

540
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: You can create custom systems to find winning trends. New

541
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: users can get a six month for free Betting Pros

542
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543
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Speaker 1: partner sportsbook. Learn more by going to bettingpros dot com

544
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 1: slash Premium. All Right, so before we get out of here,

545
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 1: you like, I'm betting Bronco's money line as a hedge,

546
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: but I think the Broncos at five and a half

547
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,479
Speaker 1: is a good look. You like the Patriots laying four

548
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: and a half, right?

549
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 2: I do like the Patriots if I can get him

550
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: at that number. And you know, you think this winds

551
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,199
Speaker 2: up at four. I kind of think it winds up

552
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 2: at four to four and a half. You know, if

553
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: I had a guess, probably four and a half. I

554
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 2: would take the Patriots at anything four and a half

555
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 2: or last I get at five and a half.

556
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can do that. We both

557
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: like the under, though, right I meant this is low

558
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: scoring game, correct, So yeah, we both like the under.

559
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: And in the night game, I like Seattle laying two

560
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: and a half. You like the Rams taking two and

561
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: a half.

562
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 2: Right, correct? And I think I'm on the over and

563
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: you're on the under. We are polar opposites on this game.

564
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't think the Rams score. I think the

565
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks defense is going to be the

566
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: story of the game. I think Mike McDonald's going to

567
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: call a very conservative game plan Offensively. I think the

568
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: Charbonney injury is bigger than people realize, in particular in

569
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: the red zone. I think it will lead to more

570
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: field goals for Seattle than it will for touchdowns for Seattle.

571
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: I think it's a field goal fest. I think it

572
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: looks a little bit like the Bears and the Rams game,

573
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: and if it goes to overtime, I wouldn't be stunned.

574
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: I think it's like, you know, a twenty seventeen, twenty one, seventeen,

575
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: something in that range type of win. It's on a

576
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: big cover for Seattle. But I do think they get

577
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: over the two and a half. I think this number

578
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 1: is going to close at three. I made that prediction

579
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: on Sunday. I think we're going up, and I think

580
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna stop at three, and I think it stays there.

581
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: If it doesn't, I'd be very curious because that means

582
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: there's a lot of money in the market for the

583
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 1: Rams and that the books are afraid to go to

584
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: three because they know what's coming. If they do have

585
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: Seattle miles three, all the RAM money come in and

586
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: they could get buried on one side if they do

587
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: touch three. So watch the line move during the week

588
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: to see how that goes, and then comes Sunday on

589
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: our live stream, we'll be able to kind of re

590
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 1: set a bit and see where the number is going

591
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: to go. That number is going to close at what

592
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 1: in your mind?

593
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm torn between two and a half and three,

594
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 2: and that's why I'm gonna wait until Sunday because I

595
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 2: if I don't get three, like I would love to

596
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 2: get three with the Rams, if I can only get

597
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: two and a half, I'm just gonna take the Rams

598
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: on the money line right because it's super expensive, I mean,

599
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 2: the most expensive move in the sports book is to

600
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: buy up from two and a half to three.

601
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: That's the most expensive thing. You're gonna pay heavy juice

602
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: to do that, and so the books are always very

603
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: hesitant to go from two and a half to three.

604
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 1: There has to be big money on Seattle to make

605
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: that happen. It could, but if it does ever get there,

606
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: that tells you that there are some respected people that

607
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: like the Rams to go into Seattle and get it done.

608
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: If not cover on your point money line, it just

609
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: win the game outrights and make it to the Super Bowl.

610
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: We're gonna be with you on Sunday on the live stream.

611
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: It begins at two o'clock Eastern time. He's Pat Fitzmorris.

612
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: I'm at Perelta talk to you on Sunday. Be watching

613
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: our live stream for the NFC and AFC Championship games.

614
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: Will break it all down. Props coming as well on

615
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: Sunday from both of us. Hope to see you all

616
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: on Sunday as we find out who's going to Santa

617
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 1: Clara for the Super Bowl.

618
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

619
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

620
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

621
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,640
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622
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 4: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

623
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros