WEBVTT - The Path Toward a COVID-19 Vaccine 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 And of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.280 and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, ol Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560 on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.320 by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, our next guest overseas 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.280 the largest healthcare provider and private employer in New York State. 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:43.159 We're talking about north Well Health. The health system has 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.680 hospitals on Long Island as well as in Manhattan and Queens. 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:49.400 It was hard hit by the virus pandemic. So delighted 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:51.960 to have back with us. Michael Dowling, just to check 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:53.920 in with him. He's president and see you at Northwell Health. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:55.560 He's also the author of a new book. It's called 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:59.000 Leading Through a pandemic, the inside story of humanity, innovation, 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:03.200 and lesson learned during the COVID nineteen Um, he joins 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:07.080 us on the phone from Long Island. So, Michael, it 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.200 is good to have you here with Alex and myself. 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:12.399 Lots to talk about on this Tuesday. Um, how are 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:14.920 you guys though doing as a health care system. Oh, 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:17.160 we're doing quite well and less I'm delighted to be 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:19.960 on with you guys again, thank you for the invite 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:23.160 and I we're doing quite well today. We have only 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:29.399 about ninety patients we'd COVID in all of our facilities. Um, 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:32.200 we have only about ten people in I see us 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:36.399 and we have nobody and on vents. So we are 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.520 quite frankly in a very very good position right now. 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:42.880 So what we have to be careful, of course, is 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:46.760 not to get complacent, and we have to be you know, 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:50.720 very very diligent because um, you know, we can get 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:54.800 a surprise if people don't behave and people don't wear masks, 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.480 and people don't social distance, and business doesn't do what 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:02.680 business should be doing by forcing those standards. Um, we've 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:04.840 just got to protect the progress that we've made, As 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.440 the governors has said, We're doing quite well in New York, 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.880 and we want to keep it that way and continue 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:11.839 to get better so that we can continue to open 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:16.160 up the economy. Folks, Michael, you sound cautious, and rightfully 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.399 so in terms of what you folks in your team 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:21.160 have seen on the front line storing these hard hit 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:25.720 months in New York. So tell me, are you anticipating 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:27.799 that we're going to see another wave? Are you nervous 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:32.720 about schools reopening and if it? If it is, I'm 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.799 not nervous about any of those things, if they have 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:40.640 done properly, if people take the appropriate precautions and be 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:46.320 extra extra cautious. Obviously, Um, you're always worried since this 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.000 is one of those things that is quite invisible and 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.640 it can bounce back. So this is why we have to, 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:55.000 you know, not, as I said at the beginning, to 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:59.200 get complacent. We do have plans in place if it 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:04.920 goes combat. We have been organizing our plans, developing cabletop exercises, etcetera, 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:07.760 so we know exactly what to do if it comes back. 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:11.400 Those plans are very detailed. We're hoping, however, not to 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:14.520 have to implement them, but if it does, happen. We 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.280 are prepared, and I think the public needs to know that. 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:21.880 So um So to that point though, to watch through, sorry, 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:26.200 to that point, being prepared, what are you missing to 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.160 be prepared? Is there anything that you need more of, 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.359 any more support that would help in that next wave? 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:36.560 And I don't nothing major at the moment. I mean, 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:40.320 all of the hospital systems are working together Mount Sinai 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:43.680 you know, Columbia prayers and my you not. Well, we're 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:47.960 all working together. We talk every week, we coordinate or activities, 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.240 and of course the governor has put out a lot 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:54.360 of guidelines and directions, especially over the last couple of days, 0:03:54.440 --> 0:04:00.000 requiring that all of us have sudden amount of PPE available, um, 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.560 that we've planned all of our searche planning, and that 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:05.240 we make sure that we have the staff compliments, etcetera. 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:09.080 So this is an ongoing process. But you know, we've 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.440 gone through this and we did learn some lessons, as 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:15.760 I recounted in the book that you just mentioned. So 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:19.000 obviously we're in the belt a position today. Then we well, 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:23.559 I would say, back in federally when at that time 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.040 we you know, we thought it would come. We wasn't 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:27.800 sure what it was. We didn't know how big it 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.000 was going to be. Now we know that if it 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.400 comes back, and it comes back with severe severity, we've 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.719 just got to be optimally prepared. So we're in a 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.200 good place right then. Is the public continues to do 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:40.480 what the public should be doing. Yeah, there's definitely, you know, 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.159 a base of our foundation of knowledge at this point. 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:45.479 And I do want to get into your book, Michael, 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:49.000 about leading through the pandemic and the COVID nighteing crisis 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:50.840 in a moment, But I do want to ask you 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.280 about some of the news that we got today about 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:58.000 Russia registering its first Corona virus vaccine. You know you 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.800 are talking to drug company, these health care systems, those 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:03.719 folks are on the front lines in terms of developing 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:07.279 a vaccine. What is your take on that news this morning? 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:12.040 I would be very skepital um. First of all, you 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:15.719 you know, you cannot let politics dictate the decisions about 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.279 when the vaccine is going to be ready, and you 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.440 cannot let politics tell you whether or not the vaccine. 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:25.760 There's advocacy with the vaccine. You've got to let science speak. 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.040 Kates here. It is too dangerous to the public at 0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:31.960 large to be jumping ahead to try to be the 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.640 first out of the gate politically, And we have that 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.960 problem in this country. We have you know, national administration. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:39.960 He of talking about while we're gonna have it by 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:41.920 the fall, we're going to have it in November. We're 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.880 gonna have it before the election. This is dangerous. We 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.240 should let science dictate. Obviously, we need it to be 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:51.120 done quickly, but these these vaccines have to be tested 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.159 in tens of thousands of people for certain periods of time. 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:58.239 And um, the FDA is going to have a major 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:02.240 issue in its hand uh over the next couple of months, UM, 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:06.200 because they're going to be under enormous pressure to tell 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:08.719 the public that we have something that we believe works. 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.240 They cannot say that. They've got to say we have 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.440 something and we know it works. That's the difference. So 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:16.880 we've got to be very careful. So with the Russian announcement, 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.520 I would be very I would be quite scaptable. So 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:23.800 I'm assuming you wouldn't take that vaccine just quickly. No, 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.200 I will not take it right away now, I would. 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:29.839 I would wait to see what happens with others. Um, 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.120 have we learned anything yet about leading through the pandemic 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:37.080 or is it too early? What's your takeaway, Oh, I 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:40.039 think that we've learned quite a bit. When you go 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.760 through something like this, which none of us have ever 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:47.440 been through before, you learned quickly on you know, as 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:49.960 you go through it. And when we did the book, 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:54.600 every every weekend I worked on it with my co 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:58.080 auth of Charles Kenny, because it was very fresh in 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.320 our minds and were it as we were going through it. 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:06.039 And each chapter of the book outlines various lessons to 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:10.400 be learned. And the idea was to help other people 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.160 when there is a crisis, whether it's a pandemic or 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:18.120 a hurricane or another major trauma situation, and that there 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.040 are cuttain things that you've got a plan for, think about, 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:26.280 prepare for an advance plan ahead so that you don't 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.040 get caught unawares when you're in the middle of something 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:31.800 that is a major, major crisis. Michael, what was the 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:37.440 biggest thing that you were caught unawares? Um are unaware of? Well, 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:41.160 that the speed of the increase in the number of 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.080 cases at the very beginning, I mean went we went 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:46.920 from a couple of hundred cases and in the course 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:49.120 of a week or so we got the three thousand, 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:53.559 five hundred in patient cases. The acceleration in the number 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:57.160 of cases was pretty extraordinary. So, you know, you have 0:07:57.200 --> 0:07:59.360 a hospital that one day looks like it's you know, 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.760 everything is on the control, and in twenty four hours 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.440 later and you know, you're just completely inundated. And if 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:07.600 you don't have a plan in place as to how 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:10.520 you're going to deal with that when those situations do occur, 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.800 you're going to be left flat footed. And the other lesson, 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:16.679 of course, is that you've got to spend an awful 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.160 lot of time focusing on the safety of your staff, 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:24.280 enhancing the morale of your staff, inspiring the staff, because 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:26.440 what we see happening on a day to day basis 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.000 during the course of the pandemic was extraordinary in the 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:33.000 compassion and the dedication. But it does require that you 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:37.280 the staff needs to know that management is with them, 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:41.679 understands their circumstance, and has does everything possible to make 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.680 sure that their safety is paramount To say, lots and 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:47.679 lots of lessons I have to say when they jumped 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:49.480 in and you know, we have a little chat at 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:50.880 alex and I, you know, just so that we don't 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.000 step on each other, and she's like, God, I wonder 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.240 if Michael ever sleeps, and I do wonder, like, how 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.160 the heck did you write a book amid all of this. 0:08:57.320 --> 0:08:59.559 I mean, you know, everybody in the medical community was 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.120 talking about how exhausted they were, Like I just can't 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:05.679 even imagine. Well, I I you know, I don't sleep 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.040 much in the in the best of times anyway. I 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:13.000 mean it's like it's like a broadcasters doctor, isn't it. 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.079 Like what you're supposed to do is sleep. You need 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:19.600 sleep now. I mean, you know, I I have never 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.000 worked the day in my life. I have enjoyed every 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.960 moment of it. So for me, I know, if you 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.920 want to stress me out, give me time off, you know. 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:32.120 I and writing it on the weekends, we were in 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.360 the middle of it. So when you go home, you 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:35.960 you know, you said, today we spent a lot of 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:38.959 time talking about employee communication. So you go home and 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.720 you write it, and as you write it, you think 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:43.520 about all the things that you should do. So it 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:47.440 was a kind of an evolving process. Um, and I'm 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:49.559 I'm so delighted now that we did it. I mean, 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.080 there were you know, tense moments trying to you know, 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:55.679 get it all done and make sure it was correct, etcetera. 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.800 But we interviewed a lot of our own employees, so 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:02.720 there's a lot of input from employees and including frontline employees, 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.600 which is very very very instructed, and hopefully for other 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.200 people to read it, they will say, oh, that this 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.480 is a kind of a playbook, as you mentioned earlier, 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:16.000 that will help me to prepare for As one of 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:19.280 my staff says, how do you prepare to be unbelievably 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:26.040 comfortable with the uncomfortable? Yeah, which is and remember health 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.600 care is we deal with crisis all the time in 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.079 health care. We have trauma, we have accidents, we have 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:35.600 car accidents, etcetera. So we deal with life and death. 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:41.240 This was an intense, long terran issue that that was 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:44.480 with us for three months. And if you don't write 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.719 it down and you don't try to report on it, 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.280 you eventually will forget about it. Right, And it's also 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.960 a great lesson of the unexpected. You know, this whole 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.040 idea of really thinking out of the box about the 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.840 worst case scenarios and being prepared for it. You know, 0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:01.560 we all learned unfortunately, very very harshly sing lesson on that. Michael, 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.199 thank you so much. Michael Dowling Presidency at Northwell Health. 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.080 Check out his book Leading Through a Pandemic out this month. 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:10.840 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:14.920 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio and a special vaccine issue. Bloomberg 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.839 Business Week looks at the biggest challenges, promising solutions, and 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.680 the weirdest science from the molecular level on up. It's 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.480 all about the path to a COVID vaccine. As part 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.440 of the coverage, Bloomberg Business Week Economics editor Peter coy 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:28.960 writes about exactly where we are in the process and 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.720 what's involved to getting a vaccine. He joins us on 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:33.520 the phone in New Jersey along with the editor of 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.679 the magazine, Joe Weber on the phone from Massachusetts. Joel, 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.400 this is a must read for really understanding how difficult 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:43.400 all of this is the path to a vaccine, right, 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.760 And that's why we wanted to do a vaccine issue, 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.680 to really sort of look at this this endeavor from 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:53.120 as many different angles as we could possibly look at it. 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:56.720 And Peter does such a wonderful job of just helping 0:11:56.800 --> 0:12:00.600 make sense of whorl of the world of science. Often 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.719 economics and more and more I feel like I pull 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.640 them in to talk about science. And you know, the 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:09.720 thing that I just thought really stuck out to me 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:14.680 about the introduction that he wrote is just the which 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.760 is just this wonderful essay is obviously we have many, 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:22.600 many different attempts under way here, and it's all an 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:27.040 attempt to really just have something that sticks, because the 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.880 especially in the U S. We have utterly failed at 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.280 containing this thing, and a vaccine is really starting to 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.960 basically be the only way out of this madness. So, Peter, 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:42.240 you talked to many, many, many people um for this article, 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:44.600 and I'm just curious, like, what were the what were 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.240 the things that really stood up to you when you 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.400 spoke to people who who work on vaccines for a living. 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.360 Just the creativity that's going on now. Vaccines have been 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:58.840 around for centuries, really going back to the cow pox 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:04.160 vaccine that's stop smallpox, and yet in the last few decades, 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:10.640 thanks to biotechnology, genetical engineering, there's just a profusion of 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:15.000 new concepts, entirely different ways of producing a vaccine. One 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.160 of them, I think is so cool. You actually take 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:23.200 some of the nucleic acid that produces the the vacs 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:27.679 the virus when it reproduces itself and you put that 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.079 into the human body. The human body produces a portion 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.960 of the vaccine, just some of the proteins, which is 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:38.400 not harmful but does stimulate the immune system. So the 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:44.640 body becomes the factory for making the vaccine. I want 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:46.520 to know the question that I can ask Peter Core 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.280 that he won't know the answer to. Oh no, no, no, 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:54.320 I don't have it. I never have it, right, So, Peter, 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:56.960 I guess when we try and look at the vaccine 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:01.600 through then the economic lens and through the mark it lens, 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:05.800 like what's the reality of one in a company says, hey, 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.719 this vaccine works in phase three and then all of 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:10.760 a sudden, everyone's great and everyone's good and we can 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.800 travel in life is normal again. Well, today, I guess, 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:15.880 if you believe what came out of Russia, we already 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:20.120 have a vaccine. Uh well, it hasn't even started phase three, 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.800 So maybe we take a pause. Yeah, exactly. So I 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.560 think we're gonna probably see more of these popping up 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:28.320 in different countries around the world. Thing we got one 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.320 to go out in my Godlin, and we're just gonna 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:34.720 have to step back and say is this trustworthy because 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.080 you really want to see a vaccine go all the 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:42.080 way through phase three for both efficacy and safety before 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.160 you're gonna want to like put it into yourself or 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.880 your kids or your parents. And that's gonna be months. 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.360 That's gonna be month, probably either late this year or 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.680 early next year. Now, the hope is that there are 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:57.480 so many of them that even if no one of 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:01.640 them is perfect, they'll collective league give us the amount 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:07.600 of protection we need to be back this pandemic. You know, Peter, 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:10.840 The part of this that I think, you know goes 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.880 to what you're saying Alex about you know, a timeline 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.760 and stuff, is is that there's a cost associated with 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:21.120 the pandemic. And obviously that is what's generating headline after 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.120 a headline every day, and it's also what's you know, 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:28.840 allowing um scientists to sort of expedite some development. And 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:30.800 you know, Peter, do you have a big number here 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:34.160 which I think, what was it, three hundred and seventy 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:40.960 five billion dollars, billion dollars for every month. That is 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:43.520 just an insane amount. So so when you think about 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.680 the economic implications of this and why vaccine is so relevant, 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:50.160 can you kind of help help make sense of that 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:53.160 for us. Yeah, So if you're thinking, why should we 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:58.000 put money into this looney ideas somebody's got um the answers, 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:01.320 you probably should because even if there's only a small 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:06.360 chance of its paying off, it's it's enough to justify 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:09.200 a fairly big expenditure of the same thing goes for manufacturing. 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.119 Why would ever build a factory to make a vaccine 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.440 if we don't even know if it's going to work well, 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.720 Because if it does work, you don't want to be 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.920 having to wait around while the factory gets built. You 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:22.240 want to be able to go into production right away. 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:26.000 And this whole attitude, I don't think there's quite enough 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.120 of it. I think the scientists understand, I don't think 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.480 funders have fully grasped it. There is some pretty generous 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:34.360 funny but we could afford to be doing even more, 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.880 and it's unleashed, just as I said before, a profusion 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:40.480 of creativity. Which this makes this sort of a golden 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:45.760 age for vaccinologists. So for everything that we've gotten wrong 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.280 here in the US, Peter, perhaps the strategy of of 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.600 actually throwing billions of dollars around it, or millions of 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:55.320 dollars at various companies is maybe the right way. Yeah, 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:58.720 it actually it is billions. Uh, it is. It is 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.920 exactly the right thing to be doing. So that's one 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:07.560 case where um, I mean, as I said in the article, someday, 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.320 when there is a vaccine or actually probably multiple vaccines, 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:13.520 assuming that they actually do what they're supposed to do, 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.639 we're gonna look back on this as these these scientists 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.280 all over the world, from India to China to the 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.520 US to Germany, we're going to thank them. We're going 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:28.159 to thank them for essentially saving our society. Be a 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.280 happy day. Well. I don't want to be a debbut downer, 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.920 but I mean, you do point out and the magazine, 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.600 the magazine has talked about this before that we still 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:41.159 don't have a vaccine against HIV. So I mean, and 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:45.480 this is a complicated virus that impacts people differently. That 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.400 is so true. All right, So I guess you did 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.679 kind of bring down the optimism I was trying to 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.639 inject into the conversation just thirty seconds to to react 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:58.840 to that debbut down very true. We still don't have 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.880 an HIV vacine. This every other viral diseases for which 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:07.280 there are no vaccines. This one is looking though as 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:12.320 if it does seem amenable to a vaccine. And uh, 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:18.240 in fact, again multiple vaccines using different avenues, So something's 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:20.760 probably going to work. Maybe not as well as say 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.680 a small box actually maybe more like the influenza vaccine, 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:26.680 but it will have something probably within a year. Well, 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:28.800 it's a must read, and it really walks you through 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:32.119 this whole process. And as uh, you and Alex and 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.480 Joel mentioned to the economic costs and why we need 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:37.800 this badly. Peter Coy, you're the best. We always love 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.960 reading what you write, Peter Coy, Economic Stator business We 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:43.640 can of course our thanks to Joe Weber. You're listening 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:47.560 to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Mazer and Jason Kelly 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:51.800 on Bloomberg Radio. Hello everybody, I'm Alex Steele in for 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.080 Jason Kelly. I can try and do an impression of him, 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.520 but I don't like sports, so Carol, I don't know 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:57.960 how much I can help you with that. Can you 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:01.679 talk fitness, workout, running us? I can do those things 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:05.080 and plates and I can pretend a little bit. We're 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:08.439 joined now by Jeffrey Cleveland, his chief economist over Payton 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:12.800 and a regal talking about how the recession now is 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:15.560 significantly different than two thousand and eight, and then I'm 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.720 assuming the prescription to fix it is also very different. Jeffrey, 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.200 thank you so much for joining us. As we move 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.240 out of this, it's sort of like, what do we 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:26.560 what do we do? How do we think about the 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:30.480 playbook when there is no playbook to think of? Well, 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.240 I thought I was going to start with my impression 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:36.800 of Jason, so oh, you can definitely please yes, start there. 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.359 I wouldn't do that. It's just me to be the 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:42.639 three of us. Nobody's gonna, you know, we will share it. 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:46.840 I think the biggest danger really for investors is I 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.199 don't know if it's recency bias or what, but you know, 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.840 the tendency is to look back to the last recession 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:54.720 and then think that this one is going to be 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.560 like that, and then you should position your portfolio accordingly. 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.679 And if if you look back to two thousand and 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:03.160 eight and you look at the job market, for example, 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:07.000 we were shedding jobs for twenty six months I think 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.680 before we got to the lows, and then it didn't. 0:20:09.880 --> 0:20:12.320 It took us another six and a half, almost seven years, 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.600 to get back to the pre recession levels unemployment, and 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:19.639 so that was a really long drawn out affair, and 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:22.280 I don't think that's what we're seeing here. I mean, 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:24.719 you both may feel otherwise, but I think this has 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:28.879 happened much more quickly. We we shed over twenty million 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:32.399 jobs and then we've added back now just over nine millions, 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:36.040 so we've retraced. If I could steal a technical analysts 0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:41.840 terminology there, we've reach retraced of the jobs lost. So 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:44.480 this is it's just happening on a much more compressed, 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:48.080 quicker time scale. So I think investors shouldn't be positioned 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:52.200 for years of slow growth necessarily. Well, that's what I 0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:54.480 wanted to ask you, okay, because we I know Alex 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:56.119 has talked to folks about, you know, when we get 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.040 back to pre COVID levels in terms of the economy. 0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:02.160 I have as well, Jason has as well. Um, when 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:04.040 do you think we get there? Because I've heard estimates 0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:07.240 of a few years, maybe two, three years. Yeah, I 0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:09.320 think it depends on what you're looking at him. If 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:11.360 you look at the g d P level, I think 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.640 you could make an argument that we won't get back 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:17.920 there until two or three. If you're looking at the 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:20.879 unemployment rate, Carroll. I mean it's the drop of the 0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:23.639 unemployment rate is happening much more quickly than I had anticipated. 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:25.720 I thought we were going to get up to and 0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:29.000 stay there. We we peeked out on that U three 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:31.520 measure of the unemployment rate just shy of fifteen percent. 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:34.000 We're already back to ten point two. We could very 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.600 easily be below nine by year end, I think, and um, 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:39.560 and then it could again it could take another couple 0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:40.960 of years to get back to three and a half 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:42.639 to four percent. But I think we'll get there, and 0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:44.440 I don't think it's going to take seven years or 0:21:44.480 --> 0:21:47.160 six years. And I know we talked about this all 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:49.320 through that period of two thousand nine all the way 0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:52.480 to and it wasn't really untill we had a great 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.159