1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:03,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we cut 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: through the noise and. 3 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 2: Get to the heart of the issues that matter to you. 4 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: Today, we're diving into the escalating tensions in the Middle 5 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: East with a guest who brings a lot of experience, 6 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: Vice Admiral John W. Miller, who is a former commander 7 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: of US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet. 8 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: He spent a lot of his career in the Middle East, 9 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: working in and around it, so he knows a lot 10 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: about these issues. So we're going to dig into all 11 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: of it. Will the U United States be dragged into it? 12 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: Does Iran actually have or how close are they to 13 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 1: obtaining nuclear weapons? Particularly after intelligence failures of the past 14 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: looking at Iraq when the Iraq Survey Group ended up 15 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 1: finding no active WMDs, no nuclear weapons programs at the 16 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: time of the invasion back then, or no significant chemical 17 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: and biological weapons stockpiles. So what to make of this 18 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: preemptive strike from Israel too Iran? How close is Iran 19 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: to actually becoming a nuclear Also? Is I ran a 20 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: paper tiger. I don't know about you, but I've been 21 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: surprised by how weak Iran really is. So I'll ask 22 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: the Vice Admiral if he's surprised by what we are 23 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: seeing happen, and then also what happens if there's regime change, 24 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: I mean, Israel is taking out a lot of Iran's leaders, 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: What would be next for Iran? What sort of instability 26 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: could we see? And most importantly, what will the United 27 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: States involvement, if anything, be in all of this. So 28 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: obviously there's a lot to unpack, a lot to dig into, 29 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: and who better than someone who has spent his life's 30 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 1: work working in the Middle East and on these issues, 31 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 1: So stay tuned for Vice Admiral John W. 32 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: Miller. 33 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: Well, Vice Admiral John Miller, it's great to have you 34 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: on the show. You're my friend's dad, but you also 35 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: are very esteemed and have spent so much of your 36 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: career in the Middle East. So lucky to have you 37 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: as a friend to be able to, you know, get 38 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: your expertise in times like these, so I appreciate you 39 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: making the time, Sir. 40 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: Great to be with you, Lisa. 41 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: I think we're all pretty surprised by what we've I 42 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: guess you know we've seen the lead up obviously with 43 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: the October seventh tier attacks. 44 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:16,519 Speaker 2: Clearly are on. 45 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: You know behind that with Hamas Bang, it's proxy. But 46 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: just by what is escalated in such a short period 47 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: of time, have you been surprised by the amount of 48 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 1: damage Israel has been able to inflict in. 49 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 2: Such a short period of time? 50 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: And I guess how would you assess the damage that 51 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:38,839 Speaker 1: has been done so far? 52 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: The Israelis have been very successful. 53 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: I'm not surprised that they've been so successful because you 54 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 4: could see this coming over the. 55 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 3: Last several months. 56 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 4: And if you go back to the direct attacks in 57 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 4: exchanges that the Iranians and the Israelis had last year, 58 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 4: So direct attacks from I ran into Israel in April 59 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 4: of twenty four and then again in October of twenty four. 60 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 4: In the interim, the Israelis have been very busy taken 61 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 4: out the proxy states that provided a great deal of 62 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 4: the military power that the Iranians rely on. So the 63 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 4: takedown of Hezbola with very little ramifications or damage done 64 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 4: on the Israeli side, really a masterful piece of work, 65 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 4: including a lot of spycraft that got the bombs into 66 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 4: the pagers and that sort of thing. And then the 67 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 4: eventual will takedown of ISRAELA look at the way that 68 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 4: they took down Syria and separated Iran from Syria. And 69 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 4: then obviously the work that the Israelis have done over 70 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 4: the last several months or years really in Gaza has 71 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 4: taken away the military power of Amas. All that jails 72 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 4: down to Iran being reliant strictly on their own military power, 73 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 4: which has never been all that impressive. They do have 74 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: a lot of missiles. They have obviously some longer range 75 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 4: ballistic missiles that are able to get to Israel, but 76 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 4: they don't have an unlimited supply of those. 77 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 3: They're not terribly accurate. 78 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 4: We've seen that, and the Israelis at the start of 79 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: this particular operation did a lot of work taken out 80 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 4: the command and control and then what was left of 81 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 4: Israeli or Iranian air defense systems. And so I'm not 82 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 4: surprised that it's gone well for the Israelis, and I 83 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 4: think it's going to continue to go well, and every 84 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 4: day that this goes on, it's a little better for 85 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 4: the Israelis and a little worse for the Iranians, and 86 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 4: particularly for their nuclear power, their nuclear weapons program is iren. 87 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: A paper tiger. I think a lot of people seem 88 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 1: surprised by the weakness of the country and sort of 89 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: anticipated that it had, you know, stronger capabilities. 90 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 4: What they have had historically since the revolution is a 91 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:16,799 Speaker 4: lot of asymmetric capability. So these they used proxy's third parties. 92 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 4: They engage in terrorist type activities, the bombing of the 93 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:26,359 Speaker 4: marine barracks, the bombing of Coobar towers, the invention of 94 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 4: the ied that that was used so prolifically throughout Iraq 95 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: against American troops. So they always seemed to be a 96 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 4: large military power really since the revolution. 97 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 3: You know, they fought along war with Iraq, and Iraq. 98 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 4: Turned out to be more of a paper tiger than 99 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 4: anybody would have inspect expected once we. 100 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: Got engaged with the Iraqis. 101 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 4: But they the two countries fought for eight consecutive years 102 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 4: and basically fought to a standstill. 103 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: So I would. 104 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 4: Say Iran as never possessed a great military power. They 105 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 4: had some air defenses that they received in recent years 106 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 4: from the Russians, the S three hundred system. The Israeli 107 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 4: has destroyed all of those after the October Iranian ballistic 108 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 4: missile attack on Israel, so their air defenses were left 109 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 4: to things that they could kind of clues together. They've 110 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 4: never had a significant air force of any sort of capability. 111 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 4: They don't have a navy that is effective in a 112 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 4: way that we would consider navies to be effective, to 113 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 4: be able to operate over the horizon out at sea 114 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 4: in the blue water. But they do have a lot 115 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 4: of asymmetric capability. You know, they have thousands of little 116 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 4: speedboats that they put either RPGs on or they put 117 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 4: fifty caliber weapons on. But the Iranians have also realized 118 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 4: they're not a great military power, and so they've steered 119 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 4: away from direct confrontation until April of last year when 120 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 4: they directly in front of the Israelis. 121 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 3: That was a mistake. 122 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are wondering how close 123 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: Iran is to becoming a nuclear power. You know, we 124 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: all remember back to the Iraq days when the Iraq 125 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: Survey Group found that, you know, there were no active 126 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: WMD's in Iraq, there were no nuclear weapons programs at 127 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: the time of the invasion, that there's no significant chemical 128 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: biological weapons stockpiles, and they found some old degraded munitions 129 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: from before the nineteen ninety one Gulf War. 130 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: So, you know, questions about how good is the. 131 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,679 Speaker 1: Intelligence, about how close Iran is to becoming a nuclear power. 132 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:44,559 Speaker 1: You know, we're these premptive strikes necessary. So I guess 133 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: what do we know about Iran in terms of being 134 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: a nuclear power or how close they are to becoming one, 135 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: particularly given you know, some of the intelligence failures of 136 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: the past. 137 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 4: Lisa, given our history with Iraqi WMD, I think it's 138 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 4: right for everybody to be a little bit skeptical about 139 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: what's going on in Iran and trying to understand, Okay, 140 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 4: do they really have a capability? Iran and Iraq are 141 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 4: different in a lot of different ways. Iraq really wanted 142 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 4: Saddam Hussein wanted people to think that he had weapons 143 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 4: and mass destructure, that he had the ability was developing, 144 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 4: the ability to build nuclear weapons, that he had chemical 145 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 4: and biological weapons. 146 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 3: Even his own. 147 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 4: Senior military personnel thought that the country had chemical and 148 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 4: biological weapons. They all thought that they were in a 149 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 4: different division than the one that they happened to be running. 150 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 4: So Iran is a lot different in that regard. One 151 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 4: of the reasons I think that makes the attack that 152 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 4: the Israelis are in the middle of right now a 153 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 4: good idea is there are many things that we don't know. 154 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 4: The Iranians have gone to great trouble to hide their program, 155 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 4: and in some ways they've tried to hide it in 156 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 4: plain sight where they have acquiesced through the j CPOA, 157 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 4: which was never a good agreement to international inspections. To 158 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 4: a certain extent, they share data. To a certain extent, 159 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 4: we know Massad has been able to penetrate all levels 160 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 4: of the Iranian government, and so they can fill in 161 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 4: a lot of the blanks. Masad has been able to 162 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 4: fill in a lot of the blanks in terms of 163 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 4: what the Iranians really have UH. And then there are 164 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 4: also parts of the program that that we know about 165 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 4: because the Iranians are making the declarations. And so when 166 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 4: you look at nuclear enrichment, the Iranians are a signer 167 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 4: of the non Proliferation Treaty, and and if you're a 168 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 4: signer of the non proliferation treaty, you agree not to 169 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 4: enrich to the point where you can make nuclear weapons. 170 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,439 Speaker 4: They're in violation of that. They've said they're in violation 171 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 4: of that. They've said they're going to pull out of 172 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 4: the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, but they haven't done so yet. 173 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 3: But they're enriching. 174 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 4: If you need enrichment to about five percent we'll say, 175 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 4: of uranium to be able to use a nuclear power 176 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 4: plant or to be able to use nuclear medicine. But 177 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 4: if once you go about five percent, now you're getting 178 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 4: towards the ninety percent that you need to make nuclear weapons. 179 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 4: The Uranians have admitted that they have a great deal 180 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 4: of material that's an excess of sixty percent enriched. And 181 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 4: so we know enough about the program to know that 182 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 4: it's a danger not just to the Israelis but to 183 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 4: the entire free world. And we know enough about the 184 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 4: program to know that there are probably some unknowns that 185 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 4: would be dangerous to assume a way as insignificant. 186 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: And Israel takeout Iran's nuclear capabilities unilaterally, you know, I know, 187 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 1: I've read and heard a lot about how you know, 188 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: Iran has hardened facilities like nuclear sites a pordoh buried 189 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: deep under ground that you sort of need advanced bunk 190 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 1: or busting munitions that Israel just does not have. They 191 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: don't possess them. So can Israel unilaterally take out irans 192 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: nuclear capabilities or do they need the United States and 193 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: other powers. 194 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: There's a presumption I think that we can make that 195 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 4: the Israelis wouldn't have started the job if they weren't 196 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: confident that by themselves they can finish the job. And 197 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 4: one of the things that's really not well known about 198 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:42,119 Speaker 4: Israeli defense force is they're not interested in having allies 199 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 4: fight with them and for them. So they don't seek 200 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 4: out American troops or air power to. 201 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 3: Do their work. 202 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 4: They do seek out capability, you know, they seek out 203 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 4: the ability to buy the weapons and to buy the 204 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 4: the airplanes, to get foreign EIGHTD. We give them a 205 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 4: great deal of foreign eight is, I think everyone knows. 206 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 4: But they're not interested in having somebody else fight for them. 207 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 4: They're interested in Israelis defending Israel, and so I don't 208 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 4: think that they would have undertaken this endeavor had they 209 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 4: not been confident that they could finish the job without 210 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 4: intervention from someone else. In other words, there's a lot 211 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 4: of talk about these bunker busters and the US has them, 212 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 4: and do we loan them, be two armors with bunker busters, 213 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 4: or do we rent them, or do we go in 214 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 4: and do it for them. I don't think that's the 215 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 4: Israeli plan, but I'm not sure exactly what their plan is, 216 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 4: and I think we'll find out over the next couple 217 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 4: of days, because I think most of the effort that 218 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 4: regards neutralizing the entire nuclear weapons program in Iran is. 219 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 3: Yet to come. 220 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 4: There are other ways to be successful in a place 221 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 4: like Florida, which, as you mentioned, and it's deep, it's hardened, 222 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 4: it's a very difficult target for the Israelis to get 223 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 4: at with bombs. It can be done without bunker busting bombs. 224 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 4: You just need a lot of them. But there are 225 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 4: other ways. In The Israelis have shown since the attack 226 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 4: of October seventh, an enormous level of ingenuity in terms 227 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 4: of how they employ their forces. And I go back 228 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 4: to the pager incident with Hasbola, where virtually the entire 229 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 4: leadership structure of Isbola is taken out in a matter 230 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 4: of minutes because all of their pagers and their cell 231 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 4: phones start blowing up. And so it may be that 232 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 4: the Israeli plan is not to take out a place 233 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 4: like Fodo outside to inside, but maybe inside to outside. 234 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised to see that, And so I 235 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 4: think the Israelis have the capability to finish the job. 236 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 3: It's very important that they do. 237 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 2: So we've got more of the Admiral. 238 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: But first, folks, we're seeing something truly disturbing. Anti Semitism 239 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: is on the rise around the world, and sadly, right 240 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: here in America, Jewish schools being targeted, synagogue's threatened, family 241 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 1: is living in fear. It's something we hoped we'd never 242 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: have to see again in our lifetime. And let me 243 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: say this, silence is just not an option. This is 244 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: the moment to take a stand. That's why I want 245 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: to tell you about the International Fellowship of Christians and 246 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: Jews or IFCJ. They're on the front lines providing real 247 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: help where it's needed most. They're giving food and shelter 248 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: to Jewish families under threat, building bomb shelters for children, 249 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: and helping survivors of hate rebuild their lives. And they 250 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: don't just respond to crisis, they work every day to 251 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: prevent it. Your gift of only forty five dollars will 252 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: helps support their life saving work by helping provide food, shelter, 253 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: and much more. The Bible says I will bless those 254 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: who bless you. Supporting IFCJ is a spiritual stand. It's 255 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: showing up for God's people when it counts. So please 256 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: call eight eight eight four A eight IDJ. That's eight 257 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: eight eight four A eight four three two five. Or 258 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: you can go to IFCJ dot org every dollar hopes 259 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: don't wait be the difference is it IFCJ dot org 260 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: or call eight eight eight for a eight IJ. 261 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 2: Now, how do you compare Masad to. 262 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: Like the CIA or some I mean, it seems like 263 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: some of the stuff that they've been doing is like 264 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: you know, double O seven, like movie stuff where you know, 265 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: you see it and you're like, oh, yeah, that's not real, 266 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: and then you're like, oh, well, maybe it is. 267 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 4: Well, the great thing about Clendestine organizations is you don't 268 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 4: really know what they're capable of doing. So I think 269 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 4: it's difficult to do a comparison between an organization like 270 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 4: the CIA, which has enormous capability obviously, in an organization 271 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 4: like Masade, which has an enormous capability and they were 272 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 4: I mean, think about this in terms of an intelligence coup. 273 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 3: They built a drone factory in Iran. 274 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 4: And they used that location to launch drones that took 275 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 4: out air defense systems. They took out leadership, they took 276 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 4: out certain parts of the communications infrastructure in Iran, all 277 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 4: from Iran, and this was all built in Iran by 278 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 4: Israelis without the Iranians having any knowledge whatsoever. So rather 279 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 4: than try to compare which one is better, because neither 280 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 4: one is good to have mad at you, I think 281 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 4: sufficient to say Massada is an extraordinarily capable intelligence organization 282 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 4: and they've proven that over the last two years in 283 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 4: ways that are like what you would see in a 284 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 4: movie or are like what you might see on TV 285 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 4: and say, wow, that's not real. 286 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 3: That can't be done, and they've done it. 287 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: I wonder too, because Israel probably benefits more from kind 288 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: of like bragging about those things or getting it out 289 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: in the open, right because you know, considering the fact 290 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: that Israel is the size of New Jersey and face 291 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: by enemies that seek its destruction, it's to its benefit 292 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: to you sort of boast or you know what I mean, 293 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: to kind of have that bravado versus the United States, 294 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: it's probably to benefit to like for the CIA likely 295 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 1: to sort of keep undercover some of the things that's doing. 296 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 2: I would imagine. 297 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 3: Do you think that's fair, Yeah, I think that's fair. 298 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 3: I think it's a great point. 299 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 4: They do use Masad unlike the way we use CIA 300 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 4: as a deterrent, and so they do a lot of 301 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 4: cliant DestinE things where they wouldn't necessarily have to take 302 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 4: the credit and attribute the actions that occurred to the masade, 303 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 4: but they are oftentimes eager to do so because it 304 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 4: is a deterrent. 305 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 3: To other nations around them. 306 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 4: And when you look at the geography of Israel, they 307 00:17:55,320 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 4: are a country that is the only non unfriendly nation 308 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 4: that they have a border with is the ocean, it's 309 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 4: the Mediterranean Sea. The rest of the country is surrounded 310 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 4: by nations that are not friendly for the most part, 311 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 4: with the exception of Jordan to the Israelis, and so 312 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 4: I think they see it as an advantage to them 313 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 4: to say we're miss out and here are the things 314 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 4: that we can do, and if we're willing to talk 315 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 4: about those things, imagine what we can do that we're 316 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 4: not willing to talk about. And that is a very 317 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 4: different mindset than than the CIA and a lot of 318 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:41,360 Speaker 4: other intelligence agency use. But I think it's a very 319 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 4: powerful tool that the Israelis have used to very good effect. 320 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: You know, President Trump tweeted or I guess posted on 321 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 1: X to leave Iran. Why do you think he did that? 322 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: What do you think is coming. I guess what does 323 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: that signal to you? 324 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 4: I think it's just another way to increase the fog 325 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 4: of war. And you can expect the Iranians with the 326 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 4: loss of infrastructure that they have, and particularly the loss 327 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 4: of their leadership, especially those that are involved in air defense. 328 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 4: There's a lot of confusion in Iran. It's difficult to 329 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 4: communicate from one place to another. I think President Trump 330 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 4: is keenly interested in the Israelis being successful, as he 331 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 4: should be. I think we all should be, and I 332 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 4: think he saw this as an opportunity to add to 333 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 4: the chaos. It's important to note that people were already 334 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 4: leaving Tehran before the President posted this on truth social 335 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 4: I think his particular posting has accelerated people's desire to 336 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 4: leave Tehran. And having Tehran under threat really goes back 337 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 4: to the Iraq Iran War, where people often refer to 338 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 4: it as the best of two cities. And this is 339 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 4: where they were launching missiles from Iran into Baghdad and 340 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 4: for the most part, launching some missiles, but flying airplanes 341 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 4: from Baghdad into Tehran. So there's a history that's not 342 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 4: all that distant. It's within the lifespan of a lot 343 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 4: of people that live in Tehran of remembering capital under siege. 344 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 4: And I think this just adds to that chaos and 345 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 4: confusion and gives the Israeli as a better opportunity to 346 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 4: complete this operation quickly and while being successful minimizing the 347 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 4: overall loss of life. 348 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 2: Who are Iran's friends? 349 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: You know, are any countries coming to Iran's rescue? 350 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 4: Well, I don't think there's anybody coming to Iran's rescue 351 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 4: that really is useful. 352 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 3: To the Iranians or to anyone else. So in terms 353 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 3: of who they rely on. 354 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 4: And you know a lot of times people will refer 355 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 4: to as as our rans second strike capability. 356 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 3: That's no longer true. And and and Hisbola. 357 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 4: Has been largely neutralized for now as a as a 358 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 4: military force. 359 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 3: And you can see that they're not involved. 360 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:12,880 Speaker 2: Uh. 361 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 4: The only organization, not a nation, that appears to continue 362 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 4: to support Iran are the Houthis. 363 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 3: And that's not surprised because the Iranians give. 364 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 4: The Houthis the capabilities that they're using to make themselves, 365 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 4: you know, infamous in the world of of maritime transportation 366 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 4: and the ability to keep the ceilanes open. Other than 367 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 4: that their proxies are gone. Syria has gone aside, his 368 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 4: Bola has gone, and Lebanon Hamas is gone in Gaza. 369 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 4: And so if you look at nation states that might 370 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 4: support them, uh, they're not nation states that are particularly 371 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 4: useful to them. The Russians are very busy, uh trying 372 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 4: not to get you know, uh defeated completely militarily in 373 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 4: the Ukraine, so they're not going to be terribly useful. 374 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 3: The Chinese are not going. 375 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 4: To get involved in any way, and are likely only 376 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,640 Speaker 4: to be involved in some sort of a diplomatic way 377 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 4: because they see the activities that are going on right 378 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 4: now as a threat to the oil that they get. 379 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 3: Out of Iran at a great discount. 380 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 4: There's no use in having a country like North Korea 381 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 4: or Venezuela's friends other than they can foment some sort 382 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 4: of mischief in various different parts of the world that 383 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 4: people find unhelpful. But when Anatola wakes up in the morning, 384 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 4: his list of friends is very short. It doesn't go 385 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 4: far beyond any international boundaries, and it's getting shorter every day, 386 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 4: you know how pivotal. 387 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: President Trump obviously worked in the abraham A course during 388 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 1: his first administration and then recently had what has been 389 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,880 Speaker 1: deemed as a successful visit to the Middle East, most 390 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 1: recently with some of these Gulf states making economic and 391 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 1: roads as well. You know, he had that great line 392 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 1: in the future of the Middle East is commerce not chaos? 393 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 2: How? 394 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: You know, how does that trip sort of lay the 395 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 1: groundwork for what is happening now? And also the Abraham 396 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 1: Accords previously. You know, do you think the future of 397 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 1: the Middle East could be commerce not chaos or do 398 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: they want commerce or do they want chaos or you know, 399 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,719 Speaker 1: sort of what's your assessment. 400 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: Of all that. 401 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: As someone who's you know, worked and spent a lot 402 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: of time on the Middle East, I. 403 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 4: Think that the Arab states, and especially the Arab states 404 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 4: that the President visited, are are keenly interested in stability. 405 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 4: They're keenly interested in commerce over chaos. They do a 406 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:49,360 Speaker 4: very good job of really taking care of their populations. 407 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 4: So these are monarchs. They're not elected, they're not democracies, 408 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 4: they're not likely to be so anytime soon, but they 409 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 4: take care of These monarchs are monarchs that take care 410 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 4: of their people in terms of bitch cation, infrastructure, you know, 411 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: the ability to work and to and to grow and 412 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 4: too and to thrive are all priorities for these these 413 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 4: monarchies because they want that stability and they want to 414 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 4: be able to be part of the global economy, to 415 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 4: make money and make their countries and their people more prosperous. 416 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 4: I don't think that's true with Iran. They really do 417 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 4: thrive under chass the regime does. I think most of 418 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 4: the Iranian people would much rather see a different regime 419 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 4: and have have a peaceful Iran that's part of the 420 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 4: Community of Nations. 421 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:44,919 Speaker 2: Got to take a quick commercial break. 422 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: More with Admiral Miller on the other side, My opinion 423 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: is that President Trump sort of the perfect president for 424 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,199 Speaker 1: this moment because he's a guy who, you know, obviously 425 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: wants the United States to be like the superior power 426 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: in the world. 427 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 2: He doesn't mess around. 428 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 1: He's willing to engage if needed, but he doesn't want 429 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 1: some sort of drawn out nation building. He realizes the 430 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: Middle East is different, like they're never going to subscribe 431 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: to democracy like we do here in the United States. 432 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: You know, they're never going to be a constitutional republic. 433 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 1: So he's not really trying to impose or worldview on 434 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: the Middle East. He's sort of just accepting the Middle 435 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: East as they are. And you know, he obviously doesn't 436 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, So I think 437 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: he's sort of the perfect person to be in charge 438 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 1: right now, Like given the context of all those different things, 439 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,879 Speaker 1: sort of what do you make of that assessment? And uh, 440 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: you know, I guess my opinion that he's very clear 441 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 1: eyed versus in seeing the world versus kind of seeing 442 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 1: it through you know, rose colored glasses that don't really exist. 443 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 4: Well, it certainly brings us a different approach to international 444 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 4: relations than than what we've seen in the past, and 445 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,920 Speaker 4: it is a business approach. And he's been very clear 446 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 4: with the Iranians when you lay out the timeline he 447 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 4: gets into office, he gives the Iranians sixty days to 448 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 4: make a deal in terms of their nuclear weapons program, 449 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 4: with the bottom line very simple that they cannot become 450 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 4: a nuclear power, they can't have a nuclear weapon and 451 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 4: it's unacceptable. And on day sixty one, the Israelis are 452 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 4: bombing the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities that they're using to 453 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 4: be able to. 454 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 3: Make a bomb. 455 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 4: So it's very clear on that and nobody should be 456 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 4: surprised and nobody should really really object to what's happening, 457 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 4: only because it was all laid out very clearly and 458 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 4: you know, if this, then that, and so from that standpoint, 459 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 4: he has been very clear. I do think that that 460 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 4: business approach has a lot of sway in the world now. 461 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 4: I find it particularly interesting how it plays off the Chinese, 462 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 4: who do take a more hole of government approach to 463 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 4: foreign affairs than the Western countries typically have done. And so, 464 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 4: you know, he sees things in the Middle East as 465 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,719 Speaker 4: more of a you know, kind of a straight up 466 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,399 Speaker 4: business deal, but he also sees things that way with 467 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 4: his engagements in the rest of the world. And you 468 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 4: get into the whole debate about tariffs and and and 469 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 4: those sort of economic moves as the way that President 470 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 4: Trump has chosen to put forward to the world not 471 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,360 Speaker 4: only our foreign policy, but our foreign and economic policy 472 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 4: wrapped up into one, but more skewed towards the towards 473 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 4: the economic side. I certainly think that pays a certain 474 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 4: dividend in the Middle East where there's interest. And if 475 00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 4: you look at the Middle East today, you go to 476 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 4: the capitals of the Emirates or Qatar or Saudi Arabia, 477 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 4: they are different places than they were ten fifteen twenty 478 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 4: years ago, and far different places than they were a 479 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 4: half a century ago. These are modern capitals with great 480 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 4: infrastructure airports and roads and schools and hospitals and all 481 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 4: of those things that make for. 482 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:26,440 Speaker 3: Good societies. 483 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,959 Speaker 4: And I think they share a vision of the world 484 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 4: that is similar to the vision that President Trump has. 485 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 4: And you see that play out today in what's happening 486 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 4: by the fact that the air countries by and large 487 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 4: have chosen to stay on the sideline while this fight 488 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:50,080 Speaker 4: between Israel and Iran goes on. The end goal of that, 489 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 4: I think in President Trump's mind, and I think he's 490 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 4: onto something here, is that this is how you get 491 00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 4: long term peace and stability. You solve these problems one 492 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 4: way or the other, and then we can all move 493 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 4: together peacefully and concentrate on making everyone's lives better. And 494 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 4: so I think at the end of this you're looking 495 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 4: at a situation not to say that we don't have 496 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 4: to deal with the Palestinian issue. 497 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 3: It does have to be dealt with, but that sort 498 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 3: of sets the table for events like. 499 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 4: The Abraham Accord to grow and to become treaties or 500 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 4: agreements that other countries are more likely to join. In 501 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 4: on as a way ahead for the future. 502 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 1: What happens to the Iranian regime if it collapses? What 503 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 1: does the future of Iran look like after that happens, 504 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: Like who would take charge? 505 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 2: Is there concern that it would be even more. 506 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: Volatile than it is now, if it's even possible, or 507 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Like, what does what does 508 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 1: regime change if that is a byproduct of the regime 509 00:29:58,760 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: getting taken out. 510 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 4: Well, that's a great question and sort of a caveat 511 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 4: to start with, is we want to be a little 512 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 4: bit careful about what we wish for. So these really 513 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 4: have made it clear that they're not after regime change, 514 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 4: they're after the nuclear weapons program. Having said that, there 515 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 4: are a number of things that the Israelis have done 516 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 4: that might lead one to believe that they're not telling 517 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 4: the truth, the whole truth and nothing. 518 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 5: But yeah, like taking out the leader, well, taking out 519 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 5: everybody but the leader, right, so he has no friends, 520 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,120 Speaker 5: you know, he holds a meeting and nobody else shows 521 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 5: up because they're all dead. 522 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 3: You know, they get a new army chief is down. 523 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 2: Not a lot of job stability, huh. 524 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, opportunity, but not stability. So that's that's all true. 525 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 4: On the other hand, go back to nineteen seventy nine, 526 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 4: the Shah really was. It was a terrible dictator. He 527 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 4: was more along the lines of Saddam Hussein. And then 528 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 4: probably Western history likes to record. And and so the Iranians, 529 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 4: we were sick of the regime and they wanted they 530 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 4: wanted a new one, and lo and behold they got 531 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 4: one that's worse than the one that they had. And 532 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 4: so because of the way the regime is structured today, 533 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 4: should the Iyatola get killed in the course of this conflict, 534 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 4: it's not clear who takes over and and. 535 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 3: And who is in charge of Iran. 536 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 4: And what we must remember is that it's a big 537 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 4: country eighty million people, you know, a couple of times 538 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 4: the size of Texas. It has enormous petroleum reserves that 539 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 4: are important to the world. And so an unstable, chaotic, 540 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 4: ungoverned Iran is not in anybody's interest. And all of 541 00:31:54,640 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 4: these ORGC, the Revolutionary Guard boats that they have have 542 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 4: the ability to launch drones to be terrorists not only 543 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 4: in the region but all around the world. Because there 544 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 4: are Iranians everywhere, or GC everywhere. That's not a picture 545 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 4: that necessarily benefits the Israeli's the nuclear power program or 546 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 4: the rest of the world. 547 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 3: And so I think a good solution, if. 548 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 4: You're looking at this from is the Israel standpoint or 549 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 4: from the US standpoint, is that the Israelis capitulate or 550 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 4: the Iranians capitulate on their nuclear weapons program, the regime 551 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 4: stays in power long enough for stability, and then over 552 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,719 Speaker 4: the longer term, in the next five to ten years, 553 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 4: we see some regime change and a better regime. But 554 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 4: I don't think a collapse of the regime in the 555 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 4: near term is in anybody's interest. 556 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 1: Before we go, I think a lot of people are 557 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,239 Speaker 1: wondering kind of like what the United States you had 558 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, that Israel wouldn't have done this without believing 559 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 1: it can kind of like accomplish its goals, you know, laterally, 560 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: and that's kind of how it typically does things. 561 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 2: I guess is. 562 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: There you know, could the United States get drawn into this? 563 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 4: You know? 564 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are concerned about, you know, 565 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 1: being involved in another sort of Middle Eastern war given 566 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: past history, Like what's the likelihood of that. I imagine 567 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 1: I ran right now probably doesn't really want to get 568 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: the United States involved, but sort of what's the likelihood 569 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 1: of that and kind of like what are you looking 570 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: for in sort of the coming days and weeks as 571 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 1: you kind of watch how this all goes down. 572 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 4: I don't think there's any appetite within the United States 573 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 4: or within the in the in the region, from the 574 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 4: from the Arab States, or or the Israelis for the 575 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 4: US to be involved. 576 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 3: So I don't know. 577 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 4: I don't think there's a lot of appetite for the 578 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 4: US to be directly involved, And I don't expect that 579 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 4: to happen because I don't think the Israelis are going 580 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,160 Speaker 4: to need for it to happen in order to finish 581 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 4: the job here. I think what the Iranians are looking 582 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 4: for is the US intervention in terms of a ceasefire, 583 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 4: in terms of the ability to go back to the 584 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 4: negotiating table. But we've been negotiating the nuclear weapons program 585 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:24,240 Speaker 4: with Iran basically for the entire century without any success, 586 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,919 Speaker 4: and so I don't think this is the time nor 587 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 4: the opportunity to just go back to the table for 588 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 4: the US to say, Okay, let's have a ceasefire and 589 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,440 Speaker 4: let's talk about this in. 590 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:40,399 Speaker 3: A productive way. 591 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,240 Speaker 4: Because the Iranians aren't going to have that epiphany until 592 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,920 Speaker 4: it's too late, So I expect that the Israelis will 593 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 4: continue to do their work. I expect that at the 594 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 4: end of the day, they're going to be successful and 595 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 4: the US won't have to get involved until the nuclear 596 00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:00,320 Speaker 4: weapons program has had the kind of setback least a 597 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,560 Speaker 4: decade that the Israelis and the rest of the world need, 598 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,280 Speaker 4: and then there's an opportunity to negotiate a better future, 599 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 4: not only for the region but also for the Iranians 600 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:14,840 Speaker 4: so that they don't live under this regime that is 601 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:19,160 Speaker 4: replete with all sorts of sanctions that make everyday life 602 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 4: in Iran a very difficult proposition. 603 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,439 Speaker 1: Do you think the Iranian people will rise up right 604 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: now or you know what's sort of the possibility of 605 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 1: an uprising? 606 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think there will be some uprisings. 607 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 4: I think there'll be some There's always this level of 608 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 4: discontent that's sort of just below the surface. Whether or 609 00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,320 Speaker 4: not it's coordinate enough to end up with an overthrow 610 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,359 Speaker 4: of the regime like we saw in nineteen seventy nine, 611 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 4: I don't know, and I don't think so, but there 612 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 4: will be disturbances in Iran I expect that they're already 613 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,759 Speaker 4: happening to a certain extent, and the Iranians are trying 614 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,040 Speaker 4: to keep a lid on that, both in terms of 615 00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,279 Speaker 4: what's happening and what we know about it. 616 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 3: But it is something that that. 617 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,080 Speaker 4: The Iranians are going to have to deal with and 618 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,520 Speaker 4: we're going to have to be aware of. But I 619 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 4: don't think they rise up and overthrow the government. That said, 620 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 4: the longer this goes on. We saw some footage the 621 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 4: other day of a oil storage facility, facility on the 622 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:35,799 Speaker 4: outskirts of Tehran that was on fire. So when when 623 00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:40,760 Speaker 4: there isn't enough fuel to be able to have people 624 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,400 Speaker 4: get to and from work, when they when they can't 625 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 4: you know, they can't cook in their homes because there 626 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,400 Speaker 4: isn't any fuel available. 627 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 3: You know, the more difficult life becomes. 628 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 4: As the war drags on, the more unhappy the people 629 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 4: are going to be, not with the Israelis so much 630 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 4: as with the regime. And so from that standpoint, it 631 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,800 Speaker 4: isn't in the best interest of the regime to stand 632 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,640 Speaker 4: up and say, hey, we will open the doors. You could, 633 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 4: you know, Iaa can come in, the US can come in, 634 00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,920 Speaker 4: and they can look at our program, we won't enrich 635 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,319 Speaker 4: here's all the stuff we have enriched. You know, they've 636 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 4: got to give it up, but they've got to give 637 00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 4: it up completely in a way that everybody believes it 638 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,400 Speaker 4: because in the long term, the survival of the regime 639 00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,520 Speaker 4: is at stake, and I think that the IOTOTA is 640 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 4: probably already feeling that pressure fair enough. 641 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 1: And then where'd Fozzy come from? 642 00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 4: Well, so I'm up and somebody said that's what I 643 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,439 Speaker 4: look like when I was twenty two or twenty three, 644 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:44,800 Speaker 4: and I didn't know what that meant. 645 00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:45,799 Speaker 3: So I said no. 646 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,719 Speaker 4: And you know, once you say no to a call star, 647 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,440 Speaker 4: and that's it, because there you go. 648 00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,839 Speaker 1: Vice Admiral John W. Fozzy Miller. And I've always called 649 00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,760 Speaker 1: you Fozzy, so I never knew where that came from. 650 00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:58,839 Speaker 2: So all right, well that's good. 651 00:37:59,200 --> 00:37:59,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. 652 00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your expertise and your time 653 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,440 Speaker 1: on this. I really appreciate you breaking it down for 654 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:06,840 Speaker 1: all of us. 655 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,800 Speaker 3: You bet, Lisa, pleasure speaking with you as always. 656 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: That was Vice Admiral John W. Fozzie Miller. Appreciate him 657 00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,320 Speaker 1: for making the time to come on the show. Appreciate 658 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 1: you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday, 659 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,480 Speaker 1: but you can listen throughout the week until next time.