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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacherath

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Speaker 1: Jay Jake zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson

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Speaker 1: in this episode ten to seventy three of the Late

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Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football podcast. Oh, I'm still here. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: tuning in. The season's winding down. There aren't many more

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Speaker 1: of these podcast episodes to do, but I'm not going away.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're keeping up to date with all things

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Speaker 1: fantasy and all things Late Round Fantasy by subscribing to the.

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Speaker 2: Late Round newsletter.

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Speaker 1: It's free and it's nerdy, and it takes two seconds

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Speaker 1: to sign up. Just head to Lateround dot com, click

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Speaker 1: newsletter and submit your email address.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 1: Then you'll be on top of all the things going

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Speaker 1: on with Late Round Fantasy Football this offseason. And there's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a lot going on. I can promise you

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Speaker 1: that twenty twenty six it's gonna be a big one

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Speaker 1: for the business. But it's a mail bag day. Let's

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Speaker 1: get to these questions. The first question this week is

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Speaker 1: from Twitter is from at Late Round dB. It says,

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Speaker 1: how would you assess or approach to the Miami Dolphins

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Speaker 1: offensive weapons for this Bengals matchup? With your starting Waller

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Speaker 1: seemed like a must start in all formats with the

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Speaker 1: data that we had with him and Tua, Now with yours,

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Speaker 1: how do you view it impact on others like Waddle

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Speaker 1: and Achan. My general stance is that this is bad

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Speaker 1: for all the players in that offense in general. Of course,

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Speaker 1: there's an outcome here where Quinn Youwers is just way

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Speaker 1: better than anyone anticipated. He just surprises everyone. But we've

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Speaker 1: kind of seen this story before many times, and they

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Speaker 1: generally don't go in a favorable direction. The splits last

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Speaker 1: year when Tua was out for Devon h Chan, that's

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Speaker 1: especially noteworthy and frightening, especially as someone who's relying on

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Speaker 1: a chan.

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Speaker 2: Quite a bit this week.

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Speaker 1: But with Tua last year, a Chan averages sixty percent

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Speaker 1: running back rush air per game rate. He was at

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Speaker 1: an eighteen and a half percent target shair. Without Tua,

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Speaker 1: those numbers were fifty five percent, so a similar enough

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Speaker 1: running back rush here, but his target share per game

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Speaker 1: rate fell to about ten and a half percent. It

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Speaker 1: felt pretty dramatically, And I'm not even talking about his

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Speaker 1: PPR points per game.

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Speaker 2: I'm just focused here on his usage. His PPR points.

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Speaker 1: Per game fell dramatically with and without Tua. We're talking

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Speaker 1: like nineteen point five PPR points per game with Tua

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Speaker 1: and eight point eight without him. Now, look, we don't

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Speaker 1: know the tendencies of viewers within this particular offense and

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Speaker 1: what he'll prefer to do. And fortunately for Achan, this

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Speaker 1: is a good matchup. Overall, Cincinnati's defense is playing a

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Speaker 1: little bit better though. Four of their best seven games

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Speaker 1: by EPA per play have come over their last four games,

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Speaker 1: and that's against Buffalo, Baltimore twice, and New England, all

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Speaker 1: good teams. Now, I was already nervous about Waddle in

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Speaker 1: this matchup to begin with, Cincinnati's been pretty good against

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Speaker 1: top wide receivers and even as a whole, they rank

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Speaker 1: close to a bottom ten matchup for wide receivers this

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Speaker 1: year by justin Fantasy points allowed. So yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: a downgrade for these guys. I think Waddle he's something

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Speaker 1: that you now consider benching this week, depending on who

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Speaker 1: you have. And then Darren Waller, for me, he's now

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Speaker 1: in a tier with like Theo Johnson and Dalton Schultz.

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Speaker 1: He's like a high end tight end two. And then

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Speaker 1: Ah Chan he's still a higher tiered guy. I don't

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Speaker 1: think you're benching Devon ah Chan. I just moved him

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Speaker 1: down a couple of spots below the other elite running

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Speaker 1: backs overall, though not very good for fantasy football, even

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Speaker 1: if Tua has plenty of question marks as a passer

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Speaker 1: at this point. This next question is from Patreon. It's

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Speaker 1: from Joel. It says, how do you feel about George

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Speaker 1: Pickens the last few weeks. He's received criticism for lack

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Speaker 1: of effort. His target share has declined below twenty percent,

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Speaker 1: and he scored single digits the last two His motivation

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Speaker 1: and body language seems to have changed since the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: leaked he will be franchise tagged, and Cede Lamb has

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Speaker 1: taken over again since.

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Speaker 2: Look, I don't know if that's the direct connection.

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Speaker 1: If the franchise tag stuff is the pure one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent reason we're seeing George Pickens kind of take some

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Speaker 1: plays off, but that's also just George Pickens. This isn't

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Speaker 1: the first time this has happened. This has really been

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Speaker 1: a two week thing for George Pickens. They had that

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Speaker 1: game against the Lions where I think things were more glaring,

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Speaker 1: where he saw nine targets on a nineteen percent target chair.

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Speaker 1: We can kind of brush that aside and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: he had a bad game. That happens for everyone. We

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Speaker 1: just haven't been used to it with Pickens. But then

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Speaker 1: last week seventeen percent target shair not horrific, but not great,

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Speaker 1: and his previous five games before these two he was

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Speaker 1: closer to a twenty nine percent target chair. But guys,

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is a really tough matchup for wide receivers though,

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Speaker 1: the third toughest matchup for wideouts by adjustin points allowed.

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Speaker 1: They also rank twenty sixth and adjusted target share allowed

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Speaker 1: to wideouts, so wide receiver rooms are generally seeing less

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Speaker 1: volume when they face the Vikings. Now, something I think

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Speaker 1: is really important this time of year is to really

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Speaker 1: focus on the action. Like we sit here and we

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Speaker 1: question players in week six, Week seven, week eight, because.

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Speaker 2: There are a lot of games left to play.

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Speaker 1: There's more forecasting going on at this point in the season, though,

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Speaker 1: We're essentially saying are we starting or sitting this player?

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Speaker 1: And if we're sitting him, should we be dropping him?

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Speaker 1: And I think with Pickens, you're probably starting him given

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Speaker 1: the state at wide receiver right now. I plan on

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Speaker 1: researching this over the offseason. I've been talking about it

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks, but wide receiver twos

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Speaker 1: they've been terrible this year for the most part, and

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Speaker 1: wide receiver threes they've been so much more replaceable than usual.

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Speaker 1: And even if Pickens starts to find himself in that

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Speaker 1: group of players, he's still going to be someone that

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Speaker 1: we're ranking ahead of those players.

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Speaker 2: Think of it this way.

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Speaker 1: Let's say that George Pickens has another single digit pper

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Speaker 1: point game this week on like an eighteen percent target share.

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Speaker 1: Next week the Cowboys get the Commanders, great matchup, We're

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Speaker 1: probably gonna be putting Pickens as a top twenty wide

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Speaker 1: receiver again, even with the down performances, unless something has

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Speaker 1: happens on the field that clearly tells us not to

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Speaker 1: do that.

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Speaker 2: Because even though some of those.

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Speaker 1: Players are likely going to outscore him, someone like I

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Speaker 1: don't know, Jaden Reid, he might outscore Pickens, who knows.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just a two game sample. We can't

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Speaker 1: necessarily project that. When we're projecting these things, we're looking

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Speaker 1: at the most likely outcomes. So my feeling with Pickens

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Speaker 1: is that I think that we can be a little

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Speaker 1: bit forgiving here. He's certainly not as much of a

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Speaker 1: lock as.

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Speaker 2: He was like three or four weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, I don't think that's really

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Speaker 1: changing our approach unless we're in a shallower league or

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Speaker 1: unless we have an unbelievably loaded team. This is still,

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Speaker 1: overall a very good fantasy environment. If he's running routes,

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Speaker 1: he has a good chance to score some fantasy points.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he won't be top six, but because of that environment,

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Speaker 1: he can still be useful. This next question is also

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Speaker 1: from Patreon, is from Ben. It says, how do you

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Speaker 1: handle a quarterback like Jacobe Bursett in the playoffs?

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Speaker 2: He's been nails.

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Speaker 1: But I'm in a two week Super FLYW Dynasty final,

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Speaker 1: and I also have Lamar and Justin Herbert, and I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to wrap my head around not playing probably Herbert

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Speaker 1: versus Dallas for him. Do I trust the numbers and

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Speaker 1: let it ride? Well, I think you have to ask

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Speaker 1: if this is fluky from Jacoby Brissett, Are there signs

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Speaker 1: of regression?

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Speaker 2: Is what he's.

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Speaker 1: Doing just simply unsustainable, because as we know by now,

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Speaker 1: Persett has been a top twelve quarterback a QB one

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Speaker 1: every single week that he's been a starter, including last

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Speaker 1: week against Houston, which no other quarterback has been able

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Speaker 1: to do. One thing we should keep in mind here

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Speaker 1: is that the Cardinals are the number one team in

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Speaker 1: football and pass rate over expected. No team is throwing

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Speaker 1: it at a higher rate than the Cardinals are, so

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Speaker 1: that can help him on the touchdown front. Usually, when

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Speaker 1: I question if what quarterbacks are doing is fluky, I

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Speaker 1: look at touchdown rate first touchdowns divided by attempts. Because

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Speaker 1: Bersett is averaging almost forty three pass attempts per start,

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Speaker 1: he's getting more opportunities for touchdowns, and his touchdo rate

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Speaker 1: as a result is still a reasonable four point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing abnormal about that at all. I then look

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Speaker 1: at some advanced metrics. He's fifth in the NFL and

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Speaker 1: completion percentage over expected. He's twentieth in EPA per dropback.

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Speaker 1: He's actually got a lower deep ball rate than most quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: and according to PFF, he's not even doing anything crazy on.

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Speaker 2: Those deep balls.

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Speaker 1: He actually only has one deep ball touchdown this year,

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Speaker 1: so it's not like he's doing all this because his

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Speaker 1: wide receivers are breaking free unbroken coverage. He's just been

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Speaker 1: really methodical on Arizona's defense just hasn't been playing that well.

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Speaker 1: So that volume, those game scripts, those environments, they've been

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Speaker 1: great for him as a passer. And look, this time

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Speaker 1: of year, we only have a two game sample, like

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Speaker 1: I've been saying, and in his two games, they get

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Speaker 1: Atlanta and Cincinnati. Those are two great matchups. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised at all if we look back and we

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Speaker 1: see Jacoby Brissett as the best quarterback option over these

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Speaker 1: final two weeks. That's absolutely possible given these matchups. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned Justin Herbert against Dallas. Yeah, Herbert's not a

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Speaker 1: bad play this week. But let me give you this

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Speaker 1: nugget to make this choice pretty clear from a process standpoint.

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert hasn't scored fifteen Fantasy points in each of

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Speaker 1: his last five games. Sure, blame the injury. I don't care,

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Speaker 1: but he's still dealing with that injury. He's had some

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Speaker 1: tough matchups. Sure, but Herbert is not a locker right now.

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Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett has literally not been below eighteen standard Fantasy

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Speaker 1: points as the Arizona Cardinals starter. His lowest point this

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Speaker 1: season has been more than three points higher than any

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Speaker 1: of Justin Herbert's games over the last month plus, the

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Speaker 1: result can be in Herbert's favor. We might see Justin

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Speaker 1: Herbert rankheaded Jacoby Brissette at the end of this week.

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Speaker 1: Of course that can happen. But I feel pretty good

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Speaker 1: about Jacoby Brissett, and I think others should feel good

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Speaker 1: about him too. If it doesn't work out, the process

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Speaker 1: definitely was not wrong, and at least you can live

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Speaker 1: with that. This last questions for Patreon, it's from it

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Speaker 1: says Tampa Bay versus Carolina this weekend, big game for

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Speaker 1: both teams. Tedoro McMillan has had about three bad games

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Speaker 1: in a row, only getting four targets last week. On

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Speaker 1: the other side of the field, we have a mecha

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Speaker 1: Abuka who started off hot but is tailed off and

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Speaker 1: is no longer than number one with Evans back on

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Speaker 1: the field, but still had seven targets last week. Looking

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Speaker 1: through your rankings this week, I'm curious what your logic

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Speaker 1: is on having McMillan ahead of Abuka by a decent margin.

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Speaker 1: Do you consider things like big division swinging games when

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Speaker 1: thinking about your tiers and ranks for the week or

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Speaker 1: is it strictly data. My process for doing rankings is

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Speaker 1: having a baseline projection that I run each week, But

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Speaker 1: I don't sit and rerun projections all week long trying

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Speaker 1: to make them perfect. I'm not playing dfs with them.

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Speaker 1: I'm not selling the projections. No one is looking at

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Speaker 1: these projections. It's a full time job to maintain projections.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you guys, it's not an easy thing if

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Speaker 1: you want them to be accurate. I'm just doing it

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Speaker 1: to get a base from there. I use my ball

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Speaker 1: knowledge via data points and what I see happening more

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Speaker 1: subjectively to create the rankings, and as I go through

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Speaker 1: the week, I'm researching more. I'm discovering new things about matchups,

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Speaker 1: and I'm shifting players based on those new things. If

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Speaker 1: you listen to my discussion on perspectives last week was

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Speaker 1: subverted down. I think you can sort of see two

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Speaker 1: data heavy analysts who approach things just kind of differently,

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Speaker 1: And to me, there's nothing wrong with that as long

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Speaker 1: as there's a service and helpfulness it's being provided. But

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Speaker 1: subverted down is very much focused on nailing that projection

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Speaker 1: with a ton of data inputs going into that projection.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit looser with how I'm looking at things.

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Speaker 1: For lack of better term, I'm probably injecting a little

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Speaker 1: bit more subjectivity than he is now to something like

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Speaker 1: a division rivalry game. Go into how I'm ranking players,

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Speaker 1: I mean not really, since a lot of what I'm

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Speaker 1: working with will start at the sportsbook line level and

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Speaker 1: work its way down. If that line was really high

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Speaker 1: or really low, then that'll be reflected to some degree

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Speaker 1: and how I view those players, Like, what in information

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Speaker 1: do we have about a Mecca Buca and Tetero McMillan

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Speaker 1: to tell us that they're going to be better because

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Speaker 1: this is a big game. How is that going to

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Speaker 1: actually change our approach right? I have no idea, But

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Speaker 1: to me, this is about looking at what's going on

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Speaker 1: right now within those offenses. For Abuka, we have Jalen

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Speaker 1: McMillan and Mike Evans back and like I said on

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Speaker 1: the ten Trends episode, we got a sixty three percent

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Speaker 1: route chair for Abuca last week, he just happened to

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Speaker 1: see a twenty two percent target chair. He was targeted

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Speaker 1: at a pretty high rate per route run. But routes

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Speaker 1: run allow a player to actually see targets. He needs

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Speaker 1: to be out there running on as many dropbacks as possible.

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Speaker 1: If he's on the sideline, he doesn't matter. The average

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Speaker 1: target share for all wide receivers who have had a

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Speaker 1: rout share between sixty percent and seventy percent this year

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Speaker 1: is below fourteen percent. Last week, obviously a Mecca a

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Speaker 1: Buka outperformed that. Meanwhile, Teteroa McMillan hasn't been below a

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Speaker 1: ninety percent route share since Week two. So if you

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Speaker 1: look at the ninety to one hundred perce in terms

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Speaker 1: of route share, that's when you get the more elite players,

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Speaker 1: and that target share it goes from below fourteen percent

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Speaker 1: to about twenty four percent. And that's exactly why I'm

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Speaker 1: focused on route participation rates alongside target share and raw targets. Now,

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Speaker 1: McMillan's had a couple of mediocre outings in a row,

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Speaker 1: but the Panthers also took an insanely run heavy approach

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Speaker 1: against the Rams that oddly enough ended up working. And

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Speaker 1: then they faced New Orleans where the Saints are one

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Speaker 1: of the biggest run funnels in football. When teams face

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Speaker 1: the Saints this year, they see their pass rates fall

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Speaker 1: by seven percentage points. That's the biggest drop in the

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Speaker 1: league with any opponent, so I think the last couple

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Speaker 1: of games for McMillan just haven't been totally normal. Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay is a matchup is the opposite. It's a pass

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Speaker 1: funnel defense that typically sees opponents throw the ball more

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Speaker 1: against them, at the second highest rate in the league,

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Speaker 1: behind only Jacksonville versus those opponents season long averages. Overall,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a better matchup for McMillan than Carolina

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Speaker 1: is for Mecca Buca. McMillan's run more routes, he has

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Speaker 1: a higher projected target share, and I'd argue there's just

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Speaker 1: way more volatility and way more unknown with a Mecca

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Speaker 1: a Buka, given the wide receivers in Tampa Bay right

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Speaker 1: now and.

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Speaker 2: What we saw last week.

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Speaker 1: So that's a little bit on my process for creating rankings,

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Speaker 1: what I see in these two wide receivers and why

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Speaker 1: I have McMillan ranked well above Abuka this week. I

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Speaker 1: would imagine consensus agrees that McMillan should be ranked ahead

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Speaker 1: of a Mecha a Buka, but hey, these wide receivers,

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Speaker 1: they're both non elite wide receivers. They're not locks at all,

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Speaker 1: so anything's possible. The last question this week is another

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Speaker 1: Patreon one from John. It says two Trevor Lawrence questions

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Speaker 1: Number one, how much do you trust his recent performance

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Speaker 1: with Jacobe Myers continuing, especially with a tough matchup against

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Speaker 1: Denver this week? And then number two bit of a

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Speaker 1: game theory question, but I'm going against someone who has Myers?

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Speaker 1: What do you think about starting Lawrence as a hedge?

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Speaker 1: Are there instances where it makes sense to adjust your

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Speaker 1: lineup based on dependencies between players and head to head matchups? Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's first talk about Trevor Lawrence. He's been really strong

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Speaker 1: of late, since Jakobe Meyers started getting more involved in

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Speaker 1: that offense. Lawrence is averaging twenty three and a half

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Speaker 1: standard Fantasy points per game. Now, obviously that forty four

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Speaker 1: point outing last week that's skewing things a bit, but.

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Speaker 2: It was still solid enough at eighteen point three without it.

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Speaker 2: But that's the thing. Eighteen point three. The descriptor we'd

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Speaker 2: use for that is solid.

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Speaker 1: It's not elite, it's not amazing, And yes, you can

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Speaker 1: definitely say that taking away a performance like that is silly.

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Speaker 1: It's like taking away the longest run for a running

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Speaker 1: back when calculating yards per carry I'm just giving some

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Speaker 1: context outside of last week's game. As a matchup, Denver's

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Speaker 1: not easy, and keep in mind during this Trevor Lawrence stretch,

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Speaker 1: he's faced mostly easier matchups, especially his last four. He's

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Speaker 1: faced Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and then the Jets, all reasonable

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Speaker 1: matchups for a quarterback. Denver's a bottom five matchup according

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Speaker 1: to Justin Fantasy points allowed. Lawrence has faced six teams

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Speaker 1: this year that ranked twenty fifth through thirty second and

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Speaker 1: adjusted points a lot of quarterbacks, meaning they're like bottom

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Speaker 1: eight matchups for quarterbacks. And for the record, Houston represents

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Speaker 1: two of those matchups. In those games, he scored ten, eight,

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Speaker 1: twenty six against the Chiefs nineteen ten and fifteen standard

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Speaker 1: fantasy points. That's good for a fourteen point seven point average. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think he could be better than that this week,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think he's like a must start even

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Speaker 1: after last week's performance. It's a tough spot for any quarterback,

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Speaker 1: and this game is in Denver. Now to your other question,

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Speaker 1: I've talked about this a lot on the show Blocking Opponents.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned it last week when someone said if they

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Speaker 1: should start Isaiah likely because their opponent had Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 1: and I mentioned how that's not that good of an

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Speaker 1: idea because Lamar can score points without likely scoring points,

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Speaker 1: which is what we saw. But you're approaching this from

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks perspective. I do think there are instances where

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Speaker 1: starting the quarterback of one of your opponent's players as

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Speaker 1: an okay move. Like, for instance, I'm in a league

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Speaker 1: where I have Jacoby Brissett, one of my opponents has

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Speaker 1: Trey McBride. I feel really good about the rest of

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Speaker 1: my lineup versus the rest of his lineup. Let's say

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Speaker 1: I have a decision between Drake May and Jacoby Bursett

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Speaker 1: this week, and let's just pretend that I would probably

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Speaker 1: start Drake May over Berset in a normal circumstance, but

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Speaker 1: it's close, Like let's say that's like fifty five to

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Speaker 1: forty five. Well, because it's close, I might decide to

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Speaker 1: just go with Bersett to mitigate some of the Trey

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Speaker 1: McBride damage. Because Trey McBride is playing out of his

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Speaker 1: freaking mind. He's such an important edge and such an

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Speaker 1: important fantasy asset. McBride can score more points than Berset

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Speaker 1: with a big game, but at least I know that

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Speaker 1: my quarterback is tied to that big game, and then

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Speaker 1: obviously if a touchdown doesn't go to McBride, my team

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Speaker 1: is gaining a nice little edge. But to be clear,

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Speaker 1: I'd only do something like that if number one, it's

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Speaker 1: a truly close call from a start sit perspective. But

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Speaker 1: then number two, you're doing it with a player that's

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Speaker 1: incredibly meaningful. With to Kobe Myers, he's playing great, but

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Speaker 1: this is the Broncos that we're talking about. On the

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Speaker 1: projections front, He's not projected to be like a top

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Speaker 1: twelve wide receiver this week, and Trevor Lawrence isn't projected

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Speaker 1: to be a QB one, so there's not really a

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Speaker 1: huge need to force something like that.

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Speaker 2: I'd rather just play the optimal play. I would imagine

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Speaker 2: your opponent has way better players this week than Jacoby Myers,

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Speaker 2: and I think in a lot of leagues there's a

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Speaker 2: chance you have a more optimal play than Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 2: this week. But as usual, your question would come down

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Speaker 2: to who you're starting instead. If it truly is close,

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Speaker 2: then sure, play Trevor Lawrence. If you like the other

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Speaker 2: matchups that you have against that team.

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Speaker 1: Just please don't force it, because when you force something

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Speaker 1: like that, you start to become suboptimal. That's it for

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Speaker 1: today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,

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Speaker 1: make sure you are by searching for it pretty much

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Speaker 1: anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't to follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

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Speaker 1: Like I said yesterday, with the holidays next week, there's

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Speaker 1: a limited podcast schedule, so this is also the last Mailbag.

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Speaker 2: Episode of the year.

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Speaker 1: It's really been a pleasure doing all the various Thanks

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Speaker 1: for tuning ins this year and answering your questions on

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Speaker 1: this show. This is always one of my favorites to

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Speaker 1: do each week. Now, I do have a Perspectives episode

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Speaker 1: dropping later today, you don't want to miss that, and

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Speaker 1: then I'll also be live with David Kitchen at one

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern on the YouTube channel to do the Late

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Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football show. Tune in for that if you

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Speaker 1: miss it, though, it's going to drop in the podcast

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Speaker 1: feed tomorrow morning.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate all of you. Thank you so much for listening.

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Speaker 1: Good luck in the semi finals and I'll catch you

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Speaker 1: next week with the fifteen Transaction Show