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Speaker 1: just gonna hit two games from last night, the Warriors
Speaker 1: impressive win over the Suns and the Bucks impressive win
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Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. So the Warriors get another impressive
Speaker 1: win at home last night. Has been a theme throughout
Speaker 1: the season. One twenty three, one twelve over the Signs.
Speaker 1: It was never really in doubt. They went up twenty
Speaker 1: five in the first quarter. There was a brief moment
Speaker 1: there in the third quarter where the Suns worked it
Speaker 1: back to three, but then, as usually happens when that
Speaker 1: sort of dynamic takes place, the Warriors immediately took control
Speaker 1: of the game had it back up to double digits
Speaker 1: in no time. Draymond talked a little bit about this
Speaker 1: on his show last or this morning, but like it's
Speaker 1: kind of an I've been flowing these basketball games, the
Speaker 1: better team gets out to a big leader, at least
Speaker 1: the better team on that particular night, the other team
Speaker 1: has to expend a ton of energy to get back
Speaker 1: into the game, and the other in the team that's
Speaker 1: in front probably let their foot off the gas a
Speaker 1: little bit, and then when things start to enter a
Speaker 1: danger zone, the team locks back in and the team
Speaker 1: that came from behind gets fatigued a little bit, and
Speaker 1: then we kind of get back to where we were
Speaker 1: at the beginning. Clay Thompson really set the tone at
Speaker 1: the beginning of this game. He at eighteen points just
Speaker 1: in his first shift. I thought one of the biggest
Speaker 1: dynamics that led to Clay thoms because Clay Thompson got
Speaker 1: good looks to start this game. All four of his
Speaker 1: threes that he made in his first shift were on
Speaker 1: defensive mistakes from Phoenix. And you know, it started with
Speaker 1: miscommunications primarily between Joshua Cog and Clay Thompson. They had
Speaker 1: excuse me, josh Cog and Devin Booker. Booker was on Clay,
Speaker 1: josh Cogi was on Steph. And one of the things
Speaker 1: that the Warriors do really well to confuse teams is
Speaker 1: they will run interchanges that lead into interchanges, and that
Speaker 1: really punishes teams that like to switch. Now, we talked
Speaker 1: about this a lot when we were talking about the
Speaker 1: Lakers and the rap right. So like the Raptors were
Speaker 1: hugging up on Anthony Davis and not switching that screen,
Speaker 1: but they were switching everything before. So it puts the
Speaker 1: switching defenders in a complicated position because if they have
Speaker 1: to navigate a switch immediately before the ball screen, they're
Speaker 1: out of position for that ball screen. And that was
Speaker 1: happening a lot in the off ball actions with Klay
Speaker 1: Thompson in this game. So imagine this. I'm Josh Akogi
Speaker 1: and I'm guarding Steph Curry, and I'm preparing to deal
Speaker 1: with Steph Curry as he's running around all these actions.
Speaker 1: Now as Steph is doing a dribble handoff with Clay,
Speaker 1: I'm tied up with Steph. Now, Devin Booker's screaming at me, switch, switch, switch,
Speaker 1: because Clay is coming off this dribble handoff. Now I'm
Speaker 1: suddenly on Clay and Clay is immediately coming off of
Speaker 1: a dribble handoff from Kevon Looney. Now, normally, if it's
Speaker 1: a dribble handoff, and I'm guarding Clay and Kevon Looney
Speaker 1: is the screener. I'm in either a lock and trail
Speaker 1: position or a top lock position, a top block position.
Speaker 1: I'm trying to refuse Klay Thompson's ability to use the screen,
Speaker 1: so I'm going to position myself between Clay and Kevan
Speaker 1: Luney and try to force him to cut backdoor where
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna have help because Kevan Luney's not a shooter,
Speaker 1: so the screen defender is probably gonna be further back right.
Speaker 1: But in that position, I need to be in position
Speaker 1: between Clay in the screen, or if I'm in a
Speaker 1: lock in trail position, I'm in the exact opposite. I'm
Speaker 1: positioning myself right behind Clay and I'm trying to stay
Speaker 1: as close to him as possible so that when he's
Speaker 1: flying off of that screen, he doesn't get separation from me,
Speaker 1: and then I can chase him over the top and
Speaker 1: funnel him into help in the paint. But in order
Speaker 1: to lock in trail or top lock, I need to
Speaker 1: be in position first, and if I'm out of position,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to have much of a chance to
Speaker 1: do my job. In either of those situations. So what
Speaker 1: was so smart about what the Warriors were doing? And
Speaker 1: Clay got threes on three of this specific type of
Speaker 1: action in that first shift. If I am guarding another
Speaker 1: player and I'm suddenly switching onto Clay, who then's going
Speaker 1: into that dribble handoff, I'm out of position. And I
Speaker 1: picked two plays like this that you guys can see
Speaker 1: that are on my Twitter feeds or go to at
Speaker 1: underscore Jason lt a clip two of these. You guys
Speaker 1: can see what I'm talking about. But you'll see josh
Speaker 1: Akogi gets suddenly switched on to Clay and then be
Speaker 1: hopelessly out of position to chase him over that following screen.
Speaker 1: You have to be so so sharp with the Warriors
Speaker 1: in their offball actions and be so prepped for that
Speaker 1: switch and be ready and in position for that next
Speaker 1: action to have any chance. And there were times where
Speaker 1: Booker wanted to switch, but there Josha Cogi didn't hear
Speaker 1: him or they didn't communicate well, and then Booker was
Speaker 1: out of position. And then there were plays where they
Speaker 1: did switch and Joshua Cogi was out of position. There
Speaker 1: was even on the I think it was the fourth
Speaker 1: three of Clay's first shift. It was a transition play,
Speaker 1: and Booker just was Booker's It's in transition, Clay's running through,
Speaker 1: Booker's kind of trailing him underneath the basket, and I
Speaker 1: think it was Draymond who ends up setting the pick
Speaker 1: and Booker just kind of gives up on it and
Speaker 1: doesn't even chase Clay out there. He gets a wide
Speaker 1: open three. In order to deal with the blender that
Speaker 1: Golden State puts you in, you have to be oh
Speaker 1: sharp defensively. And you know, we've talked a lot about
Speaker 1: how I think that the biggest weakness for the Suns
Speaker 1: with the trade they made for Kevin Durant is their
Speaker 1: point of attack defense. And point of attack defense is
Speaker 1: not just pick and roll defense. It's also all chasing
Speaker 1: shooters around. It's locking and trailing, it's top locking, it's
Speaker 1: chasing guards over ball screens. There's a bunch of responsibilities
Speaker 1: that come to point of attack defense and the point
Speaker 1: of attack guys. For the Suns last night, we're not
Speaker 1: ready for the challenge. They got punched right in the
Speaker 1: mouth eighteen points by Claying his first shift. Then once
Speaker 1: he got going with the off ball stuff, he had
Speaker 1: like a driving left handed layup on Devin Booker. He
Speaker 1: had a nice post up on josh Akogi where he
Speaker 1: took a drop step towards the baseline and hit a
Speaker 1: nice bank shot. He just completely destroyed the Suns in
Speaker 1: the first shift and it completely changed the dynamic of
Speaker 1: the game from the start, and it was basically over
Speaker 1: at that point. You're not coming back to beat the Warriors.
Speaker 1: When you're down twenty five in the first quarter in
Speaker 1: Chase Center, it's a done deal at that point. Even
Speaker 1: when they got close, like Draymond was talking about, there
Speaker 1: was no real threat there. And I want to shout
Speaker 1: out competitiveness because you know, Clay has always had a
Speaker 1: little thing with Devin Booker. And what I appreciate about
Speaker 1: Clay is, you know, beyond a shadow of a doubt
Speaker 1: that he's gonna come out ready to play against the Suns.
Speaker 1: And because I've talked a lot about Clay, like he's
Speaker 1: kind of a funny guy and he's portrayed as a goofball,
Speaker 1: but the dude is a savage competitor and it's one
Speaker 1: of the most un underrated things about him as a
Speaker 1: basketball player. He was the one that set the tone
Speaker 1: early in that game and was a huge driving force
Speaker 1: throughout this whole season. Clay Thompson has been one of
Speaker 1: the guys that has kept the ship afloat despite some
Speaker 1: unfortunate circumstances. And then when he checked out, Gold State
Speaker 1: was up fourteen and Steph took over from there and
Speaker 1: they started running the same kind of stuff with Jordan
Speaker 1: Pool and Steph Curry, and they had a same kind
Speaker 1: of miscommunication that took place between Devin Booker and Damian Lee,
Speaker 1: and Steph got a wide open three and then Steph
Speaker 1: hit a nasty step back on Damian Lee. You know,
Speaker 1: Steph kind of smelled blood in the water at that
Speaker 1: point and went for the kill because like, up fourteen,
Speaker 1: that's manageable. Clay got you to fourteen, then Stephed over
Speaker 1: got you up to twenty five. That when the game
Speaker 1: was really over. And then I was really impressed with
Speaker 1: Jordan Poole because when Phoenix made their run and got
Speaker 1: it back to within two or three points there in
Speaker 1: the third quarter, Jordan Poole made two massive plays that
Speaker 1: got them back up to their big advantage. He had
Speaker 1: a nice driving left handed layup where he initiated contact
Speaker 1: and went up strong on the left side of the rim.
Speaker 1: He had a nasty step back three. He was a
Speaker 1: big part of them getting that lead back up to
Speaker 1: where it was comfortable. And you know, Jordan Pool. A
Speaker 1: lot of Warriors fans have been critical of Jordan Pool
Speaker 1: over the last couple of months, and I haven't talked
Speaker 1: a ton about him. And one of the main reasons
Speaker 1: why is I'm a big believer in slotting and the
Speaker 1: reality of Jordan Pool is he's a flawed basketball player.
Speaker 1: Like offensively he's superhelter skelter. He kind of is like
Speaker 1: a controlled chaos, like he plays out of control a lot,
Speaker 1: and defensively he's very limited. Right, that kind of thing
Speaker 1: doesn't matter as much when the Warriors are whole because
Speaker 1: usually he's the only weak defensive link on the floor
Speaker 1: and the team can cover for him on offense. They
Speaker 1: kind of rain him in a little bit. With the
Speaker 1: overall collective basketball i Q on the floor, that gets
Speaker 1: him to make better decisions and he's attacking with more
Speaker 1: of an advantage. It all kind of works. But when
Speaker 1: guys are out of the lineup, that's where it's like,
Speaker 1: suddenly he's in lineups with lesser defensive personnel, his defensive
Speaker 1: shortcomings become a bigger deal. He's playing in lineups with
Speaker 1: lower basketball IQ. Suddenly his decision making becomes a bigger deal. Right,
Speaker 1: That helter skelter thing becomes a bigger deal. That inconsistency
Speaker 1: thing becomes a bigger deal. The way that Jordan Poole's
Speaker 1: gain is shaped actually makes a lot of sense when
Speaker 1: the Warriors are whole, and makes less sense when they're
Speaker 1: dealing with personnel limitations. And so, you know, the big three,
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green were completely locked
Speaker 1: in in this game, and I think that's a big
Speaker 1: part of what made Jordan Poole's job easier and would
Speaker 1: allowed him to impact the game well. From there, every
Speaker 1: Warrior played well. It seemed like I thought Draymond Green
Speaker 1: was frightening defensively in his first shift. You can always
Speaker 1: tell when Draymond's locked in defensively when he's closing out
Speaker 1: to three point shooters with that reckless abandon. He's got
Speaker 1: ridiculously long arms. It's one of his best physical attributes.
Speaker 1: And when you see him sprint out to a three
Speaker 1: point shooter in the corner and he reaches that arm up.
Speaker 1: It's ridiculous how much he can bother shooters even when
Speaker 1: he seems like he's out of position. Jamichael Green had
Speaker 1: a really nice burst there in the light second late
Speaker 1: first quarter, a slipped ball screen where he got a
Speaker 1: lay up, and then on the very next possession he
Speaker 1: jumped a passing lane and got a dunk. He was great.
Speaker 1: He's been ever since he came back from injury. He's
Speaker 1: been awesome off the bench. I thought Andrea Guidala was
Speaker 1: really good again. And what's interesting with Andrea Gudala hasn't
Speaker 1: always been pretty since he came back. Like he's had
Speaker 1: some nasty misses from threes from three, and he's been
Speaker 1: a little bit of a liability there, and he's committed
Speaker 1: some fouls you know, where he's gotten out of position defensively,
Speaker 1: But for the most part, he's been really good, and
Speaker 1: just in the little things in the game, he's such
Speaker 1: a connective tissue piece for them offensively. You know, there's
Speaker 1: a play in this game where Jamichael Green like kind
Speaker 1: of caught on the right bass line and Andrea Gudalac
Speaker 1: cut out of the week side corner, and so Michael
Speaker 1: Green pushed it to Andre, and Andre through like a
Speaker 1: touch pass just right on the catch that hit Moses
Speaker 1: Moody in stride for a nasty dunk in traffic. And
Speaker 1: I'm sitting there thinking, I'm like, I'm like, that's just
Speaker 1: a high basketball IQ, connective tissue type of piece play
Speaker 1: that makes everything work. And I think he's been a
Speaker 1: good off ball defender for the Warriors since he came back,
Speaker 1: and I think it's shown him plus minus in in
Speaker 1: his minute since returning. He's been plus seventeen overall. Even
Speaker 1: in the three losses that they had, he was a
Speaker 1: positive in his shifts in two of those three games.
Speaker 1: Like I think, I think his basketball IQ and both
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively have made him an impactful player for
Speaker 1: the Warriors, even despite him still working his way kind
Speaker 1: of back into his shape. And and you know, they
Speaker 1: may not even end up needing him when they to
Speaker 1: the postseason, if Gary Payton's healthy and if Andrew Wiggins
Speaker 1: is healthy. But I still think it's good to have
Speaker 1: him as an option out there just because he's not
Speaker 1: going to be scared. He's gonna know where to be,
Speaker 1: He's gonna know how to impact the game in his
Speaker 1: own way. It was a really impressive, dominant win for
Speaker 1: Golden State. They're heading on the road for five games,
Speaker 1: so they're gonna have to figure out a way to
Speaker 1: translate this to the road at Draymond talked about it
Speaker 1: on this podcast. There's been a lot of talk, but
Speaker 1: they haven't been able to translate it yet. So this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a good way for us to learn.
Speaker 1: I think their first game is the Clippers. That's gonna
Speaker 1: be a tough one. There's a they have a lot
Speaker 1: of perimeter size, which is a specific weakness for the
Speaker 1: Warriors with Andrew Wiggins out, so that's gonna be a challenge.
Speaker 1: But they're gonna have what it takes and I think
Speaker 1: they'll find a way. I think you'll see Draymond Green
Speaker 1: guard Russell Westbrook again and play off of him. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be a good challenge. This road trip is going
Speaker 1: to be an interesting one for the Warriors. And I
Speaker 1: haven't looked at the schedule to see exactly who they
Speaker 1: play yet, so I could be wrong about the Clippers first,
Speaker 1: but I think I heard Draymond mentioned that in his podcast.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to oh really quickly. Just
Speaker 1: on the Sun's You know, I don't want to think
Speaker 1: too much about them because they don't have Kevin Durant,
Speaker 1: but like the reality is, their guards have to defend better.
Speaker 1: There's a reasonable chance that it could be the Suns
Speaker 1: and Warriors that play in the four or five matchup
Speaker 1: this year and they're gonna lose that series. If you
Speaker 1: do not play better defensively in the backcourt. You have
Speaker 1: to be prepared for Golden State's blender. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: to sharpen some things up, all right, Milwaukee, Sacramento. This
Speaker 1: was just an absolute master class from Jannis. Every once
Speaker 1: in a while, there are these games where you see
Speaker 1: a player reach a height that no one else really
Speaker 1: can reach. I used to see this a lot with
Speaker 1: Lebron when he was younger, or like Kobe Bryant back
Speaker 1: in the early two in the mid two thousand and tens,
Speaker 1: where it's like, oh, yeah, like that guy's just better,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. And this, the first half
Speaker 1: of this game was a great example. Sacramento came out
Speaker 1: and through a great punch in this game. And we're
Speaker 1: not going to talk a ton of Kings today because
Speaker 1: we talked ton of Kings yesterday. But like like Demonis
Speaker 1: Sabonis came out just attacking brook Lopez, even though he's
Speaker 1: given up a lot of size there, just initiating contact
Speaker 1: and finishing around the rim. Kevin Hurder came out guns blazing.
Speaker 1: Keegan Murray came out guns blazing. Darren Fox was fantastic
Speaker 1: in the second half. They offensively, to the King's credit,
Speaker 1: everything they did worked pretty well against Milwaukee. You know,
Speaker 1: obviously their defense was a big problem to give up
Speaker 1: eighty points in the second half, but they came out
Speaker 1: and punched Milwaukee in the mouth with a great offensive
Speaker 1: punch in the first half, and on the other end
Speaker 1: of the floor, everybody for Milwaukee was off except for Jannis.
Speaker 1: Joannis was had an outstanding playmaking game. He only had
Speaker 1: four assists, but I haven't looked up his potential assists,
Speaker 1: but he probably had ten to fifteen potential assists because
Speaker 1: guys just couldn't make shots. Though Bucks started like one
Speaker 1: for ten from three, the only guy to make a
Speaker 1: three in that first ten threes was Jannis and then
Speaker 1: he was destroying Harrison Barnes in the post. He was
Speaker 1: destroying Harrison Barnes on the offensive glass He hit like
Speaker 1: a pull up mid range jump shot, just had everything going,
Speaker 1: completely dominated the game on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: It was just an absolute masterclass from Jannis and a
Speaker 1: great example of like the level that he can get
Speaker 1: to when he really hits the jets in the problem
Speaker 1: that that presents for other teams. We'll talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about that more here in a little bit. Chris Middleton,
Speaker 1: like he was one of the guys who was getting
Speaker 1: those wide open threes from Jannis in the first half,
Speaker 1: just could not make them. Finally hit a shot there,
Speaker 1: I believe in the mid second quarter, but I think
Speaker 1: he only hit one shot in the first half. Finally
Speaker 1: in the second half he broke through and got some
Speaker 1: really good spot up looks from Jannis and Drew Holiday.
Speaker 1: But you know, the big thing that you can tell
Speaker 1: when when Chris really has it going is that pull
Speaker 1: up transition three. That's kind of like his bread and butter.
Speaker 1: When Chris is really feeling good and in rhythm, he'll
Speaker 1: just bring the ball up the floor, get the ball
Speaker 1: into his left hand, high hesitation, rise up into that
Speaker 1: transition three while the defender's back pedaling. He hit one
Speaker 1: of those early in the third quarter, and it was
Speaker 1: like that was it. It was like he clicked into gear.
Speaker 1: He hit his he hit like a nice relocation like pump,
Speaker 1: fake and sidestep three d in the left corner. He
Speaker 1: had a kick out three from Yannis on a nice
Speaker 1: drive on the left wing. Then he started going to
Speaker 1: work in the post, like spinning off of guys, and
Speaker 1: he had a big and one in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: when the game was close to excuse me, pump, bake
Speaker 1: and draw the contact and rise up and knock down
Speaker 1: the shot. He's just so incredibly important to the high
Speaker 1: level half court offense element to the Bucks that can
Speaker 1: be a little bit of an issue for them in
Speaker 1: specific matchups, not really for the Kings, but in some
Speaker 1: specific matchups. I don't think it was a coincidence that
Speaker 1: the Bucks went for eighty points in the second half
Speaker 1: of this game when they when they really have it
Speaker 1: going with their spot up shooting alongside a locked in
Speaker 1: Jannis Antenna Kumbo, they're really difficult to guard, and way
Speaker 1: too often when we're talking about Yannis, we talked about
Speaker 1: him as an offensive player who's just a bullyball player
Speaker 1: who can't do much on the offensive end of the
Speaker 1: four skill wise, compared to his peers, and that just
Speaker 1: couldn't be further from the truth. The dude is at
Speaker 1: like he is a much better playmaker than Kevin Durant.
Speaker 1: He's a much better playmaker than Jason Tatum. He's a
Speaker 1: much better playmaker than Paul George or Kawhi Leonard of
Speaker 1: all those guys who are those big forwards at that position,
Speaker 1: other than maybe Lebron, He's the best passer. That's a
Speaker 1: huge part of his game that goes underrated, and it
Speaker 1: just comes from reps year after year of him going
Speaker 1: against walled up defenses that are trying to seal him
Speaker 1: off from the paint. He's just figured that part of
Speaker 1: his game out, and you know, when you kind of
Speaker 1: put it all together, that's why I have the bucks
Speaker 1: right now is the safest bet to win the title.
Speaker 1: At this point, that could change. We're gonna reapproach it
Speaker 1: in mid April. You know, if teams are healthy. I'll
Speaker 1: have to reconsider it certain teams right but right now,
Speaker 1: I think they're the safest bet. Jannis is the best
Speaker 1: player in the world. He's the best defensive player in
Speaker 1: the world. He's a top five offensive player in the world,
Speaker 1: and his game translates to the playoffs at an extremely
Speaker 1: high level. All of that is fact. Chris Middleton is
Speaker 1: the high level shot making piece and the spot up
Speaker 1: piece that was severely missing him and Joe Ingles, although
Speaker 1: Joe Ingles didn't play last night dealing with some injury management.
Speaker 1: But you know, Chris has had a rough year. He's
Speaker 1: been in and out the lineup with injuries, hasn't looked
Speaker 1: like himself. But he's peaking, it seems like at the
Speaker 1: right time. Obviously, we'll see if last night was a
Speaker 1: fluke or if he can continue that here down the stretch.
Speaker 1: But if he can add just that little bit of
Speaker 1: high level shot making, and if he can add that
Speaker 1: high level spot up shooting that they're missing, that's gonna
Speaker 1: be just a game changer. That was the difference in
Speaker 1: that Boston Celtics series last year. They just couldn't. It
Speaker 1: was a lot of Wesley Matthews. It was a lot
Speaker 1: of Grayson Allen, It's a lot of Bobby Portis, a
Speaker 1: lot of guys that were just a little bit inconsistent
Speaker 1: knocking down those kickout threes, and this year it's gonna
Speaker 1: be different. Javon Carter is a Miles better spot up
Speaker 1: shooter than he was last year. He couldn't play last
Speaker 1: year because Bud didn't trust him to knock down shots.
Speaker 1: He's gonna get those minutes this year. He's a much
Speaker 1: better point of attack defender than guys like Grayson Allen
Speaker 1: or Pat Conatson. But Pat Countitton and Grayson Allen both
Speaker 1: do their jobs. They're perfectly fine rotation players for a
Speaker 1: playoff team. Obviously, you know Jay Crowder is an option
Speaker 1: for them, is that bigger, physical forward to throw at
Speaker 1: certain teams. Joe Ingles didn't play. He can run second
Speaker 1: side action as an excellent passer, is a great spot
Speaker 1: up shooter. Drew Holliday one of the best point of
Speaker 1: attack defenders in the league. I get a little frustrated
Speaker 1: with him offensively sometimes because he takes such difficult shots
Speaker 1: seemingly unnecessary, but there are other nights when that can
Speaker 1: be a ceiling raiser for this team when he's making
Speaker 1: them right. So like, really, when I look at it,
Speaker 1: they have they have every bit as high a defensive
Speaker 1: ceiling as anybody in the team, except for maybe Boston,
Speaker 1: just because Boston has a little bit more wing athleticism.
Speaker 1: But even then, I would argue in just a different
Speaker 1: archetype of defense that Milwaukee's defense is every bit as good.
Speaker 1: And then on the offensive end of the floor, when
Speaker 1: they have Jannis surrounded by that level of offensive skill
Speaker 1: and Chris Middleton playing at that level, they're not going
Speaker 1: to be that far behind the teams like Boston. They're
Speaker 1: not gonna be that far behind. They're not gonna be
Speaker 1: that far behind the teams in the Western Conference, especially
Speaker 1: if Jannis is playing at this level. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think they're the safest bet to win the title.
Speaker 1: They We'll see what happens over the course of the
Speaker 1: next month or so if we need to adjust that.
Speaker 1: But man, I think i'd take them defensively and offensively
Speaker 1: over Boston right now. I'd have to think about it more.
Speaker 1: But in Boston lost another tough one in Houston last night.
Speaker 1: Boston is going like this, in Milwaukee's going like this.
Speaker 1: It's it's it's just I think I think it'd be
Speaker 1: foolish to bet on anybody else out of East right now.
Speaker 1: All right, before we call it today, I want to
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about the MVP in advanced metrics.
Speaker 1: So this was a debate that I had with Matt
Speaker 1: Moore from the Action Network the other day, and then
Speaker 1: Draymond actually brought it up a little bit, not the
Speaker 1: advanced metrics part, but brought up the MVP debate again
Speaker 1: today and it got me thinking. So Chris Mannix, one
Speaker 1: of our co workers here at the Volume, said that
Speaker 1: him and Nick Wright had a debate over Yoka chimbid
Speaker 1: and they talked a little bit about the advanced metrics thing.
Speaker 1: And I want to be clear, like, I'm in the
Speaker 1: minority here. I do not have a vote. Obviously I
Speaker 1: hope to one day, but I do not have a vote.
Speaker 1: And the people that do, the majority of them, do
Speaker 1: factor in advanced metrics. I completely disagree with that. There's
Speaker 1: a couple of reasons why. First of all, when it
Speaker 1: comes to advanced metrics, I just find them to be
Speaker 1: useless data. The comparison that I made was the zestimate
Speaker 1: on Zillo. I worked in real estate before I did this.
Speaker 1: It was the flexible job that I could do to
Speaker 1: make money while I was trying to pursue this career.
Speaker 1: And you know, all the time I get asked by
Speaker 1: listing clients like, oh, but my estimate said this, you know,
Speaker 1: and this estimate was just a basic algorithm that would
Speaker 1: take basically average sales prices from the neighborhood. Right. But
Speaker 1: the reality is of real estate is no two houses
Speaker 1: are alike unless you're in like real track home areas.
Speaker 1: Most houses are different, especially in Arizona because Arizona is
Speaker 1: kind of more spaced out. There's big pieces of dirt, right,
Speaker 1: Like like my first home was on almost an acre.
Speaker 1: That was my first home, like an inexpensive home that
Speaker 1: was on literally like two thirds of an acre. Right,
Speaker 1: You're not getting that in other areas, So like different,
Speaker 1: every lot is different. What kind of views do you have? Pool?
Speaker 1: Pool is a big thing in Arizona because how hot
Speaker 1: it is. Like the houses are. There's there's old slop
Speaker 1: bought combs that are six from the nineteen sixties, and
Speaker 1: then there's these brand new stick and stucco homes from
Speaker 1: the early two thousands. Like they're also different. So like
Speaker 1: I would just tell my clients like, this estimate means nothing.
Speaker 1: I have to run detailed comps of all these different
Speaker 1: things that are similar to your home in order to
Speaker 1: find a realistic valuation. So like what I would tell
Speaker 1: them is like this estimate's fun it's fun to look at,
Speaker 1: but the reality is is it doesn't actually mean anything
Speaker 1: when it pertains to what your house is actually worth
Speaker 1: and what someone's willing to pay. That's the way I
Speaker 1: look at advanced metrics. They're fun, you know, like it's
Speaker 1: cool looking to a player efficiency rating or raptor you know,
Speaker 1: ESPN real plus minus or any of these catchall metrics.
Speaker 1: But the reality is is the game of basketball is
Speaker 1: so much more complicated than that, and you cannot hope
Speaker 1: to assign a player's basketball value to a number. I
Speaker 1: think it's I think it's blasphemous to the game of basketball.
Speaker 1: And you know what was funny is is Matt More
Speaker 1: His point was like his point was like, you can't
Speaker 1: trust your eyes. Your eyes will deceive you. You need
Speaker 1: concrete data. And my counterpoint to him was, I don't
Speaker 1: view that as concrete data. I agree that eyes are flawed,
Speaker 1: there's no doubt, like I make mistakes with my analysis
Speaker 1: all the time. That's big part why I read the comments.
Speaker 1: You guys do a good job providing different perspectives. If
Speaker 1: you're a fan of the Sacramento Kings, you watch more
Speaker 1: Kings games than me. I might watch forty to forty
Speaker 1: five Kings games a year. You're gonna watch eighty two
Speaker 1: Kings games every single year, so you're obviously, like, obviously,
Speaker 1: the eye test is a flawed concept, but so is
Speaker 1: the data, and I think that it's a lost cause
Speaker 1: you are never going to be able to assign basketball
Speaker 1: to a single number. I still believe in data, you
Speaker 1: guys know, I look at data for you know, single
Speaker 1: play types, like I like to look at pick and
Speaker 1: roll points per possession, post up points per possession, lation
Speaker 1: points per possession. I like to look at defensive ratings,
Speaker 1: offensive ratings, all line up data, but all of those
Speaker 1: are directly associated to the scoreboard on a per possession basis,
Speaker 1: so they're much more accurate. But even those aren't one
Speaker 1: hundred percent accurate, because if a guy's got if you know,
Speaker 1: a player that's on a team that has tons of shooting,
Speaker 1: his pick and roll points per possession is going to
Speaker 1: be swayed by the fact that he's got three great
Speaker 1: spot up shooters off of him, Whereas you know, like Lebron,
Speaker 1: the work he was doing in pick and roll earlier
Speaker 1: in the season, surrounded by a bunch of garbage shooters
Speaker 1: like it's different for him. So even the data I
Speaker 1: look at is not perfect, and I'll acknowledge that here.
Speaker 1: But like the single metrics, the catch all metrics, they
Speaker 1: are hopeless and their endeavor to try to capture the
Speaker 1: game of basketball. So my thing is, like what you're
Speaker 1: considering to be concrete data, I don't consider to be
Speaker 1: concrete data. And I'm okay with the fact that we
Speaker 1: can never some basketball up to an exact science. I'm
Speaker 1: good with that. I love the organic nature of basketball games.
Speaker 1: I love that you can be the better team for
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions, but if you don't execute on two
Speaker 1: possessions at the end of the game, you can lose.
Speaker 1: I love those details about the game. And what I've
Speaker 1: always said is the counter to my eye test mistake,
Speaker 1: the mistakes that I might make with the eye test,
Speaker 1: is that we have a huge voter pool. Like, if
Speaker 1: I've got one hundred people that are watching the games
Speaker 1: with their eyes and voting based on their eyes, it's
Speaker 1: gonna average out to something that's closest to the truth.
Speaker 1: And I would much rather fail with my eyes trying
Speaker 1: to perceive the realness of the game of basketball than
Speaker 1: to point to an algorithm and let them do the
Speaker 1: work for me, not to mention like there are so
Speaker 1: many Like, let's break it down from a math perspective.
Speaker 1: What is an advanced metric. It's basically an equation with
Speaker 1: variables and you're plugging in the variables and you're getting
Speaker 1: out a result. Right, Maybe that's points per game. Maybe
Speaker 1: that's your plus minus waited for like they're super complicated
Speaker 1: now like these, If you look at the formula for
Speaker 1: like raptor, it's like, it's ridiculous the amount of detail
Speaker 1: that they put into it. They're trying, they're failing, but
Speaker 1: they're trying. But here's the thing. Where is the variable
Speaker 1: for a player's ability to move without the basketball to relocate?
Speaker 1: Where's the variable for a guy who sets better screens
Speaker 1: than his opponent. Where is the variable for the guy
Speaker 1: who runs his lane in transition every time and doesn't
Speaker 1: get the ball that occupies defenders. That's just like four examples.
Speaker 1: If I really thought about it, made a list, I
Speaker 1: could probably make an like fifty or sixty different basketball
Speaker 1: skill set things that are literally impossible to measure statistically,
Speaker 1: And because of that, it will never be possible to
Speaker 1: capture the game of basketball in a single metric. So
Speaker 1: I know I'm in the minority. I know they disagree.
Speaker 1: But if if when I become a voter, if if
Speaker 1: it happens, if I'm lucky enough, if I'm blessed enough
Speaker 1: to become a voter on NBA Awards, I will do
Speaker 1: my very best to watch the games and come up
Speaker 1: with what I believe is my best guests who deserves what.
Speaker 1: And I will not allow myself to you to allow
Speaker 1: to use a flawed metric to cheat the work. And
Speaker 1: I'd rather fail with my eyes than fail by being lazy.
Speaker 1: And I know that I'm not calling those people lazy.
Speaker 1: Those people also watch the games, but I just think
Speaker 1: like they actually factor that stuff in a huge part.
Speaker 1: A huge part of why Yokich is number one in
Speaker 1: MVP voting is because of the the advantage he has
Speaker 1: in the advant metrics. And I just don't think that
Speaker 1: that's good process. So again, that's just my that's just
Speaker 1: my two cents on it's a lot more complicated. You
Speaker 1: guys know how I feel about MVP. I'm a big
Speaker 1: thirds guy, Like, who's the best player in the world
Speaker 1: is a third of it? Who's the best player in
Speaker 1: the best team is a third of it. Who's the
Speaker 1: most valuable is the third of it. That's kind of
Speaker 1: the way I break it down. That's just my thing.
Speaker 1: Everyone's got a different opinion on it. I who's the
Speaker 1: best player in the world. Part is where I factor
Speaker 1: in postseason success. I believe postseason success shouldn't matter. Yes,
Speaker 1: it's a regular season award, but we're in pursuit of
Speaker 1: Hilarry O'Brien. That's the goal. So like I think that
Speaker 1: stuff matters. All right, I'm off my soapbox. Um, that's
Speaker 1: all I have for tonight. We're gonna be back tomorrow morning. Guys.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have a bunch of games to talk tonight.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get into some more Eastern Conference
Speaker 1: teams tomorrow as well. As always, I sincerely appreciate your
Speaker 1: sport now, so you guys tomorrow. Ali