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Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break for Tuesday, May sixteenth.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, doubts on the dead Speaker McCarthy says

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Speaker 2: he's nowhere near a deal with President Biden.

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Speaker 1: The US prepares to buy more oil to replenish the

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Speaker 1: strategic reserves.

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Speaker 2: A top FED official favors pausing great hikes, and.

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Speaker 1: Sources say a megadeal in the biotech industry will be

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Speaker 1: challenged by regulators.

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Speaker 3: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani deni as sexual assault allegations.

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Speaker 3: Plus a gunman kills three people while randomly shooting in

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Speaker 3: the New Mexico neighborhood. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead from.

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Speaker 4: John Stas showering towards the Yankees one in Toronto, the

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Speaker 4: Mets lost in Washington. It's down of the final four

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Speaker 4: in the Stanley Cup playoff.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, The Business

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Speaker 5: News You need to starn your day in just one

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Speaker 5: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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Speaker 1: following today.

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Speaker 2: All eyes are back on Washington today for a second

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Speaker 2: round of talks on the debt ceiling, with the clock

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Speaker 2: ticking toward a potential government default. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 2: says he is nowhere close to a deal with President Biden.

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Speaker 5: We only have so.

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Speaker 6: Many days left.

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Speaker 2: The President decided to wait one hundred.

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Speaker 7: Days before he would negotiate.

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Speaker 2: He treated this the same way he treated the border.

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Speaker 2: He wanted to ignore the problem. Speaker McCarthy says staff

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Speaker 2: level talks have not been productive. The President is insisting

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Speaker 2: on a clean debt ceiling increase and leaving talks on

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Speaker 2: spending to the budget process. But former White House Budget

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Speaker 2: Director Mick mulvaney says it seems there's never a right

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Speaker 2: time to talk about spending in Washington.

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Speaker 8: Apparently, it's not when we do a budget, because that

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Speaker 8: leads to a government shutdown. We can't do that. We

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Speaker 8: can't do it when i'm debt ceiling because that leads

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Speaker 8: to default on the day. But when it is a

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Speaker 8: good time. It doesn't seem as ever a good time

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Speaker 8: in Washington, DC for some people, at least to talk

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Speaker 8: about spending. Less a lot of folks never want to

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Speaker 8: have that discuss and that's where I think frustrates a

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Speaker 8: lot of Republicans. Just look, we get it. We'd rather

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Speaker 8: not talk about it here, We'd rather talk about it

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Speaker 8: on a regular day, but no one talks about it

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Speaker 8: with us.

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Speaker 2: Former White House Budget Director mc mulvaney spoke with our

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Speaker 2: Washington correspondent Joe Matthew on Bloomberg's Sound on Catch the

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Speaker 2: show weekdays at one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or

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Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, the US is already paying a price for

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Speaker 1: its failure to raise the dead limit. That's the word

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Speaker 1: from Treasury Secretary Jenety Yellen and a letter can congressional leaders.

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Speaker 1: Yellen said, quote, We've already seen Treasury's borrowing costs increase

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Speaker 1: substantially for securities maturing in early June. Yellen says that's

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Speaker 1: the time when the Treasury risks running out of cash

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Speaker 1: for its obligations.

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Speaker 2: Well, the debt sailing negotiations continue, Karen, the US is

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Speaker 2: buying more oil. The Energy Department's preparing to purchase up

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Speaker 2: to three million barrels of crude to refill its strategic

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Speaker 2: petroleum Reserve the country's emergency stockpiles at its lowest level

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Speaker 2: since nineteen eighty three, after releasing more than two hundred

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Speaker 2: million barrels to curb high energy prices last year and

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Speaker 2: checking prices right now now NYMXED crewed is up twelve cents.

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Speaker 2: It's seventy one dollars twenty three cents a barrel.

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Speaker 1: Well, turning to the economy now, Nathan, there are more

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Speaker 1: signs the Fed may hold off on more rate hikes

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Speaker 1: to be caught up with Atlanta FED President Rafael Bostik.

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Speaker 7: In today's environment where there's so much uncertainty in the economy,

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Speaker 7: I don't think we can really rule out anything. If

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Speaker 7: I had to have a vote right now, i'd probably

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Speaker 7: vote to hold. But we've got two more inflation readings,

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Speaker 7: we have a jobs report that's got to come out.

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Speaker 7: There's a lot more information we're going to have as

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Speaker 7: to what's going on.

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Speaker 1: And Atlanta FED President Rafael Bostik made the comments in

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Speaker 1: an interview with Bloombergy, So Michael McKee stay tuned for

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Speaker 1: more of that conversation coming up shortly on Bloombergy Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: Now, Under the equity markets, Karen where we're finding out

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Speaker 2: what some of the biggest names on Wall Street have

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Speaker 2: been doing with their money. Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us

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Speaker 2: with details.

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Speaker 9: John Yeah Nathan required Quarterly reports filed with regulators show

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Speaker 9: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made a bet on Capital One

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Speaker 9: Financial during the regional bank turmoil. It may have paid

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Speaker 9: off if Capital One surged as much is nine point

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Speaker 9: six percent. Overall, Buffett was a net seller of stocks

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Speaker 9: in the first quarter and pocket at ten point four

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Speaker 9: billion dollars. Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in

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Speaker 9: The Big Short, now has a big long when it

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Speaker 9: comes to China. He boosted bullish bets on e commerce

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Speaker 9: giantsjad dot Com and to Ali bomba group. He made

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Speaker 9: those bets even as other hedge funds cool on China,

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Speaker 9: and the filings also show activists investor Nelson Peltz recently

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Speaker 9: adding to his stake in Walt Disney after calling off

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Speaker 9: a proxy fight earlier this year in New York. I'm

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Speaker 9: John Tucker, Bloomberg day break.

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Speaker 1: All right, John? Thanks Meantime, the mood among global fund

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Speaker 1: managers appears to be souring, According to Bank of America's

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Speaker 1: latest survey investors are flogging to cash amid concerns at

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Speaker 1: a recession and credit cruncher looming. The sentiment among fund

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Speaker 1: managers and may deteriorated to the most bearish this year.

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Speaker 1: Sixty five percent of survey participants say they now expect

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Speaker 1: a weaker economy.

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Speaker 2: Well this morning, Karen Omega deal in the biotech in

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Speaker 2: my history is in jeopardy. Amgen's twenty seven billion dollar

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Speaker 2: agreement to buy Horizon Therapeutics will be challenged by federal regulators.

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Speaker 2: Sources say the Federal Trade Commissions expected to file a

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Speaker 2: lawsuit today to block the purchase. It'll argue the tie

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Speaker 2: up with hamper innovation and slow the pace of drug development.

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Speaker 2: Shares of Horizon are down eighteen percent in early trading.

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Speaker 1: On another corporate news, Nathan Wells Fargo has agreed to

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Speaker 1: pay one billion dollars to settle a shareholder lawsuit. Plaintiff's

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Speaker 1: accuse the bank of making misleading statements about its compliance

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Speaker 1: with federal consent orders that was in the wake of

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Speaker 1: the twenty sixteen scandal over opening unauthorized accounts.

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Speaker 2: Also are in the banking industry, Care and more job

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Speaker 2: cuts maybe on the way. Bloomberg News has learned Morgan

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Speaker 2: Stanley's considering a seven percent cut to its Asia Pacific

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Speaker 2: investment bank. Deal making slowed in China due to weaker

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Speaker 2: economic growth and worsening US relations. The cuts are part

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Speaker 2: of Morgan's plan to reduce about three thousand jobs globally

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Speaker 2: by the end of this quarter.

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Speaker 1: And finally, Nathan Elon Musk is being tied up in

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Speaker 1: controversy surrounding Jeffrey Epstein. The Tesla CEO is being issued

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Speaker 1: a subpoenas JP Morgan's lawsuit over Epstein, and Bloomberg's Ed

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Speaker 1: Baxter has the story.

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Speaker 10: This comes from the US Virgin Islands, where the US

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Speaker 10: claims JP Morgan Chase knowingly benefited from Jeffrey Epstein's sex

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Speaker 10: trafficking operation. The core papers say the government had reasonab

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Speaker 10: believe Epstein may have referred or attempted to refer Musk

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Speaker 10: as a client. Several other billionaires, including Google co founders

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Speaker 10: Larry Page and Sergei Brinn, have also been issued subpoenas.

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Speaker 10: The paperwork asks for any documents regarding Epstein's involvement in

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Speaker 10: human trafficking in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 10: straight ahead.

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Speaker 2: Your latest local headlines in the check of sports. This

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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg Time Now to take a look at some

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Speaker 2: of the other stories making news in New York and

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Speaker 2: around the world, with Bloomberg's Michael Vaar.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. Parents and school children

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Speaker 3: in New York City are expressing their concerns about the

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Speaker 3: city's plan to temporarily house some asylum seekers at school

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Speaker 3: gyms as bus loads of Mike griants keep arriving in

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Speaker 3: the city. While some parents say the migrants need help,

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Speaker 3: they are concerned about safety. This woman lives near PS

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Speaker 3: one eighty eight in Coney Island.

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Speaker 6: Why don't we put them in Gracie Mansion. You look

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Speaker 6: at some place to put them, Put them into people

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Speaker 6: who are elected who put this in place, put them

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Speaker 6: in their backyards, because you've dumped on us long enough.

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Speaker 3: About seventy five adult migrants are staying in the gym

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Speaker 3: that is not connected to the school. Attorneys from marine

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Speaker 3: veteran Daniel Penny are defending his decision to put Jordan

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Speaker 3: Neely in a chokehold on a New York subway train

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Speaker 3: earlier this month. Neely, who was homeless was later pronounced dead.

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Speaker 3: Penny's defense says Neely had been threatening passengers, but prosecutors

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Speaker 3: say there was no indication Neely was violent. Meanwhile, a

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Speaker 3: legal defense fund for Penny has surpassed two million dollars

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Speaker 3: with donations from kid Rock and endorsement from Florida Governor

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Speaker 3: Ron Dessentis. Police in Farmington, New Mexico, say it appears

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Speaker 3: an eighteen year old gunman who shot and killed three

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Speaker 3: people and wounded six others, fired to add random as

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Speaker 3: he roamed the neighborhood. Authorities say it appears the suspect

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Speaker 3: fired at least three weapons, including an ar style rifle,

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Speaker 3: shooting at homes and cars. Farmington, New Mexico, Police Chief

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Speaker 3: Steve Hebby.

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Speaker 4: It's difficult to understand how something like this happens, but

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Speaker 4: we are doing the best that we can.

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Speaker 3: He's through and talk with family members of the suspect.

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Speaker 3: Chief Hebby says the gunman was shot and killed. Rudy

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Speaker 3: Giuliani is denying sexual assault allegations and a new ten

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Speaker 3: million dollar lawsuit. The former mayor of New York City

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Speaker 3: is also accused of harassing a former employee, Noelle Dunfee

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Speaker 3: claims she has audio recordings to back up her claims.

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Speaker 3: Two staffers for Virginia Democratic Congressman Jerry Connolly were attacked

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Speaker 3: by a man with a baseball bat in Connolly's district office.

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Speaker 3: Sergeant Lisa Gardner of the Fairfax Police.

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Speaker 6: We found two victims. They sustained non life threatening, non

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Speaker 6: life threatening injuries, and they were both transported to local hospitals.

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Speaker 3: Sergeant Gardner says the suspect is in custody. Global News

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Speaker 3: twenty four hours a day, powered by more than twenty

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Speaker 3: seven hundred journalist nanalysts and over one hundred and twenty countries.

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Speaker 3: I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, brought

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Speaker 2: to you by Tri State Outy. Good morning, John stash.

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Speaker 4: Hour, Good morning, Nathan. The Yankees went to Toronto the record

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Speaker 4: of just three and nine in series openers, first of

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Speaker 4: four with the Blue Jays second batter of the game.

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Speaker 5: Two swing at a high drive.

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Speaker 11: It's right field and pretty deep for Springer. He's gonna

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Speaker 11: turn and watch it. It's gone a home run into the

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Speaker 11: elevated Yankee bullpenning straightaway right Aaron Judge is gone yard

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Speaker 11: here in the top of the first off, Alex manoah

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Speaker 11: it is home run number nine and the Yankees are

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Speaker 11: in front one on Wfan.

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Speaker 4: Three batters later, a Willie Calhoun two run shot Judge

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Speaker 4: it another solo shot eighth in, and that one went

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Speaker 4: four hundred and sixty two feet to straightaway centers for

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Speaker 4: four homers in the last three games for the American

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Speaker 4: League's all time single season leader. The Yanks led seven

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Speaker 4: nothing held on to win seven to four. Mets lost

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Speaker 4: in Washington ten three. David Peterson's now one in six

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Speaker 4: with an eight ERA, and the Mets have lost fifteen

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Speaker 4: of their last twenty one, haven't won a series in

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Speaker 4: a month, and this next series won't be easy, hosting

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, who comes in with a record of thirty

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Speaker 4: one and eleven. Justin Erlander on the mound tonight, his

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Speaker 4: first city field start as the met NBA and NHL

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Speaker 4: playoffs both down to the final four. The NBA's West

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Speaker 4: Finals start tonight in Denver Nuggets and Lakers. Nuggets have

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Speaker 4: never played in the NBA Finals. They are zero to

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Speaker 4: four in this round, and three of those losses have

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Speaker 4: been against La the East Finals start tomorrow in Boston.

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Speaker 3: Celtics and Hey.

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Speaker 4: Dallas Stars into the Stanley Cup West Final, beat Seattle

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Speaker 4: in game seven two to one, will now take on Vegas.

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Speaker 4: NFL broadcasting news Matt Ryan said he's not necessarily retiring

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Speaker 4: after fifteen seasons, but he is joining the CBS as

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Speaker 4: an analyst, and the NFL says one of the wild

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Speaker 4: card playoff games will be aired on Peacock, NBC's streaming service,

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Speaker 4: so it won't be on free TV. John Stashedward Bloomberg Sports.

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Speaker 12: Live from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 12: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SIRISXAM, the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 12: and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. There is no sign of

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Speaker 2: rate cuts in the near term. That's the word from

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Speaker 2: Atlanta FED President Rafael Bostik, speaking with Bloomberg's Michael mckeeb

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Speaker 2: about monetary policy, inflation, and the recent banking crisis. Bostik

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Speaker 2: says there's still ways to go to tame price pressures,

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Speaker 2: and he hinted at what the Fed's next move might

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Speaker 2: be at next month's FOMC meeting. Let's listen in to

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Speaker 2: that conversation.

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Speaker 13: Now, headline CPI and core CPI have come down from

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Speaker 13: their peaks, but they seem to have kind of stalled out.

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Speaker 13: The Atlanta Fed has an underlying inflation dashboard that shows

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Speaker 13: a bunch of other measures of inflation, and a lot

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Speaker 13: of those are worse now than they were a year ago.

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Speaker 13: So has the Fed done enough?

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Speaker 7: Well, First of all, thanks for being here. It's really

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Speaker 7: good to have Bloomberg is an attendee at our conference.

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Speaker 7: This is a really good group and your team really

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Speaker 7: contributes a lot to that. And when I think about

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Speaker 7: the trajectory of inflation, I think that we've made a

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Speaker 7: really good progress on it. If you think about where

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Speaker 7: the economy was and where inflation was last summer compared

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Speaker 7: to where it is today, we've seen really positive things happen.

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Speaker 7: We're not the nine and ten percent levels. We're in

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Speaker 7: four and a half to five range. Now, look that's

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Speaker 7: still twice two times what our target is, so there's

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Speaker 7: still a ways to go. But I do think that

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Speaker 7: we've seen a lot of some of the frost really

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Speaker 7: come out of the inflation measure. Now, one of the

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Speaker 7: things I look at one of the measures I try

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Speaker 7: to keep track of is the number of goods in

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Speaker 7: the basket of that's used to calculate the CPI that

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Speaker 7: are showing inflation above five percent Right now, in the

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Speaker 7: latest report, that came under fifty percent, less than half

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Speaker 7: no hour in that range from one point it was

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Speaker 7: seventy or eighty percent. So I think we're seeing that

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Speaker 7: breath narrow and that's a really positive sign. So I

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Speaker 7: think we are starting to see our policies really work.

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Speaker 13: But do you rule out any more additional rate increases?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 7: Oh no. Look in today's environment, where there's so much

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Speaker 7: uncertainty in the economy, I don't think we can really

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Speaker 7: rule out anything. Look, I think we are in a

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Speaker 7: place now where we've been in restrictive territory for something

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Speaker 7: like six to eight months. That's about the time you'd

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Speaker 7: expect to see our policies start to bind on the economy.

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Speaker 7: And when I talk to businesses, they tell me they're

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Speaker 7: starting to feel that bind, and that's a really positive thing.

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Speaker 7: But as you know, we've had surprise after surprise after

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Speaker 7: surprise over the last few years, and most of them

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Speaker 7: have been to the negative. When it comes to getting

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Speaker 7: closer to our inflation target. So I've got to keep

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Speaker 7: that on the table for sure. But right now I'm

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Speaker 7: feeling like, let's see how our restrictive policy is working

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Speaker 7: and that'll give me a sense of what our next

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Speaker 7: move needs to be.

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Speaker 13: Well, you still have a PC inflation report and a CPI.

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Speaker 7: We got two more exactly for your next meeting.

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Speaker 13: What are you thinking now though for the June meeting?

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Speaker 7: Well, if you if I had to have a vote

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Speaker 7: right now, I'd probably vote to hold. But as you noted,

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Speaker 7: we've got two more inflation readings. We have a job's number,

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Speaker 7: a jobs report that's going to come out. There's a

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Speaker 7: lot more information we're going to have as to what's

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Speaker 7: going on. But again, the folks, I'm talking to the

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Speaker 7: businesses across the sixth district and even in our survey responses,

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Speaker 7: they're all telling us that there is a lot of

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Speaker 7: slow down that is that is on the way, and

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Speaker 7: that really gives me some comfort that we're kind of

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Speaker 7: in a place where we can let that play out

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Speaker 7: and then we'll see where what we need to do

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Speaker 7: at that point.

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Speaker 13: We are speaking with Rafael Bostics, the president of the

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Speaker 13: Atlanta Federal Reserve. You're talking about what the businesses are

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Speaker 13: telling you. What are they saying about their pricing power

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Speaker 13: and their plans to use it or not be able to.

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Speaker 7: So, you know what's really interesting. Through most of the pandemic,

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Speaker 7: our business contacts have said, if we needed to raise

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Speaker 7: prices because our costs are for input, we're going up,

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Speaker 7: they could just pass that through, and the consumers were

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Speaker 7: accepting that. I'm hearing much much less of that now,

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Speaker 7: and many of the businesses and the people in the

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Speaker 7: marketplace are telling me they're pretty much at the limit,

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Speaker 7: and their ability to continue to raise price and pass

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Speaker 7: through those higher costs is far degraded, in part because

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Speaker 7: consumers have become a lot more price sensitive, which again

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Speaker 7: is I think these are the things that we'd want

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Speaker 7: to see if we were getting to a place where

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Speaker 7: the economy was moving back to balance, which then would

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Speaker 7: get us to that two percent target. So pricing power

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Speaker 7: is not nearly as clear and as ruthless as it

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Speaker 7: has been. I think that's really positive development.

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Speaker 13: What about on the employment side, FED forecast at five

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Speaker 13: basis points of tightening should be raising the unemployment rate.

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Speaker 13: Instead it's gone down. What are they saying about their

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Speaker 13: plans for labor.

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Speaker 7: Well, I would say two things on this. So first,

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Speaker 7: everyone is telling me that their labor market experiences, their

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Speaker 7: ability to hire, and their turnover internal to their business

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Speaker 7: is far better than it was last summer. Now it

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Speaker 7: is not still elevated and tougher than it was before,

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Speaker 7: but there has been progress made. The second piece to this, though,

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Speaker 7: is that we just came through a pandemic where many

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Speaker 7: families are thinking about how they're going to work. Many

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Speaker 7: many employees are thinking what is my connection to the

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Speaker 7: labor market. We had all these retirements, so there's a

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Speaker 7: lot of churn that's happening. I think that's contributed to

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Speaker 7: some of the historically low unemployment numbers that we've seen.

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Speaker 13: If I could use a phrase you're not allowed to

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Speaker 13: use in economics, is this time different in the sense

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Speaker 13: that it was so hard for companies to hire coming

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Speaker 13: out of the pandemic, that this time they're going to

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Speaker 13: hoard labor and we may not see the kind of

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Speaker 13: unemployment rates that you forecast.

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Speaker 7: Well, I am hearing that businesses are saying, we don't

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Speaker 7: want to let some of our best people go because

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Speaker 7: it may be very difficult to get them back. I

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Speaker 7: am definitely hearing that, but I'm mindful for how you

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Speaker 7: started this. Every time there's a declaration that this time

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Speaker 7: is totally different, it winds up not being totally different.

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Speaker 7: So we're going to just keep our eyes open, my

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Speaker 7: eyes open, and our team. We're going to be out

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Speaker 7: there really trying to understand where things stand. I do

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Speaker 7: think when the pandemic is triggering some real structural changes

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Speaker 7: that it's going to take a while for us to

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Speaker 7: understand those things. But we're going to have to understand

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Speaker 7: those before I'll be willing to make any declaration that

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Speaker 7: the old laws of labor markets don't apply.

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Speaker 13: I want to follow up on that in a second,

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Speaker 13: but first let me ask you about banks, because there's

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Speaker 13: been a lot of talk about that. Thanks all, we

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Speaker 13: titan credit standards. When the Fed is raising interest rates

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Speaker 13: and loan demand always falls. So the real question is

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Speaker 13: are you seeing anything or do you anticipate anything that

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Speaker 13: would be worse than normal in terms of credit.

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Speaker 7: That's a good question. So look, as you noted, when

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Speaker 7: we raise interest rates at the Federal serve, we expect

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Speaker 7: loan conditions of learning conditions to tighten. That has happened

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Speaker 7: that I usually don't want it to happen as in

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Speaker 7: such as volatile a way as it has with the

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Speaker 7: Silicon Valley bank challenge and other things. But a lot

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Speaker 7: of this is going as expected as I expected it would.

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Speaker 7: Now the question is is it going to accelerate, is

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Speaker 7: it going to stay where it is, or is it

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Speaker 7: going to slow down. The bankers that I talked to

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Speaker 7: tell me that the rise of liquidity risk as something

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Speaker 7: that's really on their radar screen has caused them to

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Speaker 7: want to be more conservative in terms of their willingness

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Speaker 7: and desire to lend. But I'm not hearing right now

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Speaker 7: that they've gone into hyper mode where we really have

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Speaker 7: something that I would characterize as a credit crunch. We're

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Speaker 7: not there today, and I'll be monitoring to see if

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Speaker 7: we get closer to something like that.

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Speaker 13: The fit is sketched out a sort of backward looking

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Speaker 13: monetary policy framework, and that you're looking at inflation numbers

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Speaker 13: for quote, a clear and convincing evidence that the price

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Speaker 13: level is coming down? Is it time to switch to

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Speaker 13: you more forward looking kind of policy to find indicators

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Speaker 13: that tell you what's going to happen rather than what

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Speaker 13: has well I would.

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Speaker 7: Say we've always done both right, So we definitely want

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Speaker 7: to see what the official numbers are saying. But through

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Speaker 7: our Regional Economic Information Network, we are talking to businesses

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Speaker 7: all the time through our surveys. We have a pretty

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Speaker 7: robust survey shop, and we're talking to businesses and we

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Speaker 7: get feedback from businesses in those cases, and some of

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Speaker 7: the questions we ask are, as you're setting wages moving forward,

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Speaker 7: are you doing that as a catchup because your workers

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Speaker 7: feel like they're falling behind, or are you doing that

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Speaker 7: because you think that pricing is going to be where

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Speaker 7: you need to do that Today, what businesses are telling

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Speaker 7: us is that they're in catchup mode. Their employees know

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Speaker 7: that they've been their wages have fallen behind inflation, and

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Speaker 7: to keep them they feel like they've got to allow

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Speaker 7: that catchup to happen. But we are also and that

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Speaker 7: to me, that's a very positive thing because it says

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Speaker 7: it's reactive and not proactive, and as long as we

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Speaker 7: stay in that environment, I think the probability that we

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Speaker 7: get inflation to continue to recede is very positive.

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Speaker 13: Now, you've said, and most of your colleagues have said,

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Speaker 13: that you anticipate keeping rates where they are at least

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Speaker 13: through the end of this year, possibly into next year.

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Speaker 13: Is there any circumstance under which you think you would

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Speaker 13: change that view if inflation came down quickly or if

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Speaker 13: the economy sort of fell apart.

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Speaker 7: Well, of those two scenarios, I would be more inclined

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Speaker 7: to change if inflation came down quickly. Look, inflation is high,

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Speaker 7: is too high. We've got to get this back to

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Speaker 7: our two percent target. If we do not do that,

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Speaker 7: inflation expectations change and you might get into this cycle

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Speaker 7: where it becomes very, very difficult to get back down

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Speaker 7: to a reasonable level, and that has all kinds of

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Speaker 7: bad implications for families, for investment, for businesses, and for

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Speaker 7: the country. So we've got to get that under control.

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Speaker 7: The scenario for me of a rate cut, which I

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Speaker 7: don't think is what's going to happen, is that inflation

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Speaker 7: really starts to come down robustly through the course of

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Speaker 7: this year. You know, my models and my team and

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Speaker 7: my outlook really tell me that we're I'm expecting to

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Speaker 7: be in the high the mid to high threes by

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Speaker 7: the end of this year, and that's still quite a

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Speaker 7: ways from two percent. If I was wrong and inflation

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Speaker 7: was much lower than that, then there would be a

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Speaker 7: conversation on it. But I think right now, if you

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Speaker 7: had to tip the skills, the next move is going

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Speaker 7: to be an increase or a cut. It's pretty heavily

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Speaker 7: weighted to the end for me at the current moment.

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Speaker 13: I have a leftfield question for you because this just

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Speaker 13: came up in the last twenty four to forty eight hours,

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Speaker 13: the State of Florida banning the use of a central

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Speaker 13: bank digital currency as the monetary overseer for the state

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Speaker 13: of Florida from your Atlanta office. Does that make any

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Speaker 13: sense to you?

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Speaker 7: I have not been in any conversation, so Noah's motivated that.

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Speaker 7: You know, we at the federals A have done some

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Speaker 7: study of this. We had a white paper, lots of questions.

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Speaker 7: It's something we're mouling. I don't think something like that

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Speaker 7: is imminent, but I don't know. Maybe they know something

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Speaker 7: I don't, But yeah, I'm not really having a lot

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Speaker 7: of conversation on that.

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