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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go fifteen Cuddy twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty, forty five, fifty and the kickers block

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Speaker 2: look college football world standard.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled the football.

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Speaker 2: The lateral turn, the counter of the job.

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Speaker 4: Don't you believe I'm not tap them.

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Speaker 3: Up the field tonight.

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Speaker 2: It's not the sage on the game, it's.

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Speaker 3: The sage of the fight in the role.

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Speaker 5: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 5: on Campus Podcast. This is the Big Ten Betting Preview.

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Speaker 5: I'm stucky, enjoying me as always my co host Colin Wilson, almost.

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Speaker 2: At Arkansas time. But first, before we get to the SEC,

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Speaker 2: we have to talk some Big Ten. You ready to roll?

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Speaker 3: I'm ready to roll, man. After going to the media

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Speaker 3: days and hearing Kevin Warren say that they're gonna do

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Speaker 3: what they want, They're gonna scoop any team to join

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Speaker 3: this conference in USC and UCLA might just be the beginning.

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Speaker 3: Amaze at how college football is transcending, and the Big

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Speaker 3: Ten is right at the lead of that, especially with

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Speaker 3: these TV contracts and the details that are.

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Speaker 2: Coming out on that.

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Speaker 3: So Hey, This is an exciting league. I'm excited to

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Speaker 3: see how it pans out.

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Speaker 2: No new head coaches in this league. Fourteen teams, zero

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Speaker 2: zero head coaching changes. There are eight new offense coordinator

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Speaker 2: changes depending on how you look at like co versus main,

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Speaker 2: and eight defensive coordinator changes. Up to you know, some

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Speaker 2: are kind of questionable, like do you think Michigan has

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Speaker 2: a true quarterback battle? I kind of do, but you

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Speaker 2: know there's some that are. But up to you could

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Speaker 2: argue up to seven quarterback battles, which we'll get into.

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Speaker 2: Ohio State the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten

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Speaker 2: there minus two hundred, Michigan next plus eight hundred, Wisconsin

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Speaker 2: twelve to one, Penn State fourteen to one, Nebraska, I

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Speaker 2: what twenty to one, and you start to get down

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Speaker 2: on Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, et cetera. The Big Ten East,

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Speaker 2: which is obviously one of the most loaded divisions in

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Speaker 2: all of college football. Ohio State's a minus three hundred

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Speaker 2: favorite to take it home their win total. We'll still

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Speaker 2: start there because the Alabama we agree, We've talked with this.

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Speaker 2: I think most agree it's not rocket science here. Ohio

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Speaker 2: State and Alabama are head and shoulders above the rest

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Speaker 2: of the field this year, I wouldn't be shocked depending

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Speaker 2: on how Georgia handles all the bodies they lost, I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked that at some point, you know, I

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Speaker 2: say Clemson's quarterback situation doesn't work out and everything goes

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Speaker 2: right for Alabama. Ohio State, but they're fourteen points better

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Speaker 2: than the third best team. It actually wouldn't shock me

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Speaker 2: this year. So Ohio State their win total. These books

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Speaker 2: don't want to get middled in other various reasons, but

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Speaker 2: over ten and a half minus two thirty, I think, like, what,

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Speaker 2: let's see what else is Over eleven minus one thirty,

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Speaker 2: I project eleven point four wins. I have him over

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Speaker 2: a two touchdown favorite in every single game. I don't

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Speaker 2: really see valued over eleven minus one forty. Look, we

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Speaker 2: don't really have to spend too much time on Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: Threty be double EDGITR favorites sever game. We know about

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Speaker 2: their offense, right They've lost some talent in the NFL

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Speaker 2: at receiver and offensive line, but they're still reloaded HIGHS

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Speaker 2: putentil quarterback, highs potential running back. And then they bring

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Speaker 2: in Jim Knowles, which is that's the biggest thing. On

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Speaker 2: the defense. It's now national potentially a national title contending

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Speaker 2: defense because of the organization and scheme that he will bring.

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Speaker 2: So this is a complete team. It's one of the

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Speaker 2: top two teams in the country. I think they're just

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Speaker 2: a hair behind Alabama and the defense really comes together.

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Speaker 2: I think they'll give Alabama a run. I remember they

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Speaker 2: were one hundred and twenty ninth in returning experience going

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Speaker 2: into last year. Here's here's my argument of laying it.

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Speaker 2: Just laying minus two hundred two on Ohio State doing

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten. They're going to run the table if

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Speaker 2: they who's one game in the regular season before that

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Speaker 2: Michigan game, only just one? Right, they go, they go

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Speaker 2: to Michigan State and pitt State. As long as they

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Speaker 2: beat Michigan and then as long as they beat say, Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: then they still win the Big Ten in all likelihood,

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Speaker 2: you know, they'll be like a twenty point favor in

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Speaker 2: both those games. That's like a minus six hundred parlight. Now,

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Speaker 2: obviously other things that have happened before, but they are

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Speaker 2: so much better than every other team in this conference.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Michigan is closer than I might have power rated.

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Speaker 2: But any thoughts on how to approach Ohio State from

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Speaker 2: a betting perspective or as you don't see anything here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we are not a podcast that sits

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Speaker 3: around and dwater cooler talking about how good they are.

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Speaker 3: We have to give betting deliverables, and that's really tough

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Speaker 3: with Ohio State when they've been out priced in every

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Speaker 3: single way. Jackson Smith and a Juba is down to

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Speaker 3: twenty five to one for the Heisman in certain spots,

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Speaker 3: opening up at one hundred to one, when when Heisman

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Speaker 3: odds were put out there and you just can't find

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Speaker 3: a good bet on these guys. And you mentioned it.

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Speaker 3: The biggest acquisition is Jim Knowles coming in from Ohio

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Speaker 3: State a year ago. We're sitting here talking about Kerry

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Speaker 3: Coombs and the bull position and we're going to figure

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Speaker 3: out a way to have a floater go all over

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Speaker 3: the field and that's going to stop us from getting burned.

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Speaker 3: That should all be done now Jim Knowle's coming in.

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Speaker 3: It should be an issue anymore about them getting burned.

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Speaker 3: Eight percent returns according to Tarp and I think one

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Speaker 3: thing that you should take note is that Jack Sawyer

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Speaker 3: goes into his second season, he's primed to follow the

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Speaker 3: footsteps of Chase Young. This is going to be a

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Speaker 3: play on team every week. If you don't want to

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Speaker 3: go to Division, you don't want to go just all

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Speaker 3: in the Big Ten, because right now those prices are

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Speaker 3: about the same price it would be like when they're

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Speaker 3: money lined in the Big Ten championship game. But let's

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Speaker 3: start with game one. Let's get it deliverable out there.

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Speaker 3: This number opened up around fourteen against Notre Dame. That's

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Speaker 3: steamed up to fourteen and a half, fifteen and a

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Speaker 3: half in some spots. I make it seventeen and a half,

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Speaker 3: and I think by the time we get to week one,

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Speaker 3: we're going to be looking at a number that's just

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Speaker 3: teetering between sixteen and a half and seventeen and a

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Speaker 3: half with sharps and squares and everybody getting on both

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Speaker 3: sides of that. And I think that you should go

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Speaker 3: and hit that fifteen and a half now. The reason

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Speaker 3: is because of what Notre Dame brings back. I know

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Speaker 3: you and I have had some disagreement on about what

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Speaker 3: we think of Marcus Freeman, but the last time Ryan

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Speaker 3: Day face Marcus Freeman at Cincinnati Ohio State was up

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Speaker 3: twenty eight to zero at halftime. Notre Dame is expected

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Speaker 3: to start a red shirt freshman in offensive tackle to

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Speaker 3: start the season this year. That is really bad when

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Speaker 3: you look at Jack Sawyer. It's really bad when you

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Speaker 3: look at Zach Harrison. I would not want to bring

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Speaker 3: a freshman tackle into a game against Ohio State's new

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Speaker 3: defense with gym Knowles. Who's going to be out to

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Speaker 3: prove a point after you know, not making the Cultural

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Speaker 3: Wall playoff last year, losing the Michigan This team has goals,

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Speaker 3: their focused, their defense is going to be great, and

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Speaker 3: these defensive ends are going to eat Notre Dames tackles

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Speaker 3: for lunch. So I would bet the Notre Dame number now.

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Speaker 3: I worry about coming back on the other side later,

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Speaker 3: even if probably don't even need to. But that's my

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Speaker 3: bet on Ohio State right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Jim Noles did the prep for Notre Dame

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Speaker 2: in the bowl game last year, which should pay off

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Speaker 2: with a whole offseason to add on to that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I would lay it with a I said last year,

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Speaker 2: Ohio State the first time it was the first time

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Speaker 2: that they didn't make the Culturable Playoffs. Since twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 2: the first time they didn't win the Big Ten in

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Speaker 2: five years and the first time they lost of Michigan

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Speaker 2: in ten years. And I mentioned they were one of

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Speaker 2: the two least experienced teams in the country. I think

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Speaker 2: that all that changes this year. Nole's has a lot

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Speaker 2: to do with it. They win the Big Ten, they

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Speaker 2: beat Michigan, and they go back to the College playoff

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Speaker 2: and if it is Alabama Georgia and THEFTC Championship, give

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Speaker 2: me Alabama that rematch for all the marvels.

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Speaker 3: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers.

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Speaker 2: Avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 5: Let's check in with bow Dog Jim.

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Speaker 2: All right, so let's move on to Michigan, who win

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Speaker 2: total sitting at nine and a half if what it's

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Speaker 2: worth in the Big Ten East. And I should mentioned

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Speaker 2: that we're going to talk with Mike. I interviewed Mike

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Speaker 2: Allen Ianella, who does our group of five podcasts at

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Speaker 2: Mike Calabreeze earlier today. He's going to give us a

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Speaker 2: lot of inside on Penn State, and we touch on

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Speaker 2: a few other Big Ten teams. Michigan in the Big

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Speaker 2: Ten East. You know the problem is they have to

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Speaker 2: go to Ohio State this year. So in order to

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Speaker 2: win the Big Ten, and I like it, they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to win that game, which they finally did last year.

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Speaker 2: Win total sitting at over nine and a half flat,

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Speaker 2: I project them nine point three and then the Big

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Speaker 2: Ten East. Look I mean, I said, Ohio State no

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Speaker 2: value in the wind total, Penn State over eight minus

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Speaker 2: one forty five, I make it like eight point one five,

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Speaker 2: Michigan State over seven and a half minus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I'm at like seven point eight, Maryland over five and

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Speaker 2: a half minus one thirty five. I'm at five point

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Speaker 2: six to three, Indiana over four minus one twenty, I'm

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Speaker 2: at four point two, and Rutgers over four minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: I'm at four point one. The big time, last tize

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Speaker 2: of discoveries we'll get to. But I don't have any

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Speaker 2: value on any wind totals in the Big ten East.

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Speaker 2: But I know you like a couple, so you'll give

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Speaker 2: us some guidance here, including Michigan, a Michigan who should

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Speaker 2: be favored by more than two touchdowns at seven games,

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Speaker 2: big dog against Ohio State. Maybe a coin flip at Iowa,

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Speaker 2: which could decide this. But New coordinators, They lost some backs,

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Speaker 2: and they lost some key defensive pieces in the secondary.

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Speaker 2: And then most importantly I think is are they going

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Speaker 2: to still be able to generate this same amount of

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Speaker 2: habit because obviously they lost two key edge rushers to

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Speaker 2: the NFL. Those are the biggest questions with Michigan in it.

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Speaker 2: Addition to the quarterback situation, is it McCarthy's in McNamara,

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Speaker 2: who's going to get the job? Is it going to

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Speaker 2: start with McCarthy and then eventually go to McNamara. So

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Speaker 2: there are questions with this team. The special teams should

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Speaker 2: fuck all year, which will help. The offensive line might

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Speaker 2: be the best in the country and it is getting

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Speaker 2: rave reviews at camp with a lot of the guys

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Speaker 2: that are there. I mean, this is argue the best

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Speaker 2: off its line in the country last year and it

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Speaker 2: could be even better this year. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on the Wolverines?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a low dollar play on me for going over

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Speaker 3: nine and a half. I'm like, you stuck a lot

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Speaker 3: of these numbers that are out there in the market.

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Speaker 3: They've been been hit for a couple of months, so

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Speaker 3: there's not really a lot of value level for those

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Speaker 3: of us that make win totals in the offseason, and

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Speaker 3: this is one of those. I mean, I make Michigan

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Speaker 3: nine point three, I'm gonna go over nine and a

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Speaker 3: half for a number of reasons. First off, this team's

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Speaker 3: going to be favored in eleven of twelve games. I

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Speaker 3: think my ideology when the off season started was, oh,

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Speaker 3: my gosh, Josh gatis Is going to Miami or Mike

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Speaker 3: mcdonn going back to the Ravens. And then you look

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Speaker 3: a little bit closer and you realize this is Jim

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Speaker 3: Harbaugh's offense. Josh Gaddis had to bend what he wants

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Speaker 3: to do, the speed in space or whatever the heck

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Speaker 3: it was that he wanted to do. When he got

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Speaker 3: the Michigan he had to bend and do what Harbaugh

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Speaker 3: won it on offense, which is, you know, running this

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Speaker 3: unbelievable ground attack behind Hassan Haskins and Blake Korum. So

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Speaker 3: I don't expect any change in the offense whatsoever. As

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Speaker 3: a matter of fact, Jim Harbaugh said it out loud

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Speaker 3: at Big ten media days and when he was pressed

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Speaker 3: about who your quarterback is going to be, I think

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Speaker 3: within thirty seconds, he said, Kate McNamara is going to

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Speaker 3: be the starter, and then thirty seconds later said JJ

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Speaker 3: is going to be the starter. So you know, I

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Speaker 3: mean JJ McCarthy's going to be the starter. But I mean, really,

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to do more of the hot

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Speaker 3: hand McNamara with the highest floor, McCarthy with the perceived

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Speaker 3: highest ceiling, right, So I think it just depends. And

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Speaker 3: he only had forty one dropbacks last season. The real

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Speaker 3: worry with JJ McCarthy is protection of the ball. If

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Speaker 3: that improves, he would probably see the field all the time.

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Speaker 3: The good news is the offensive line is anchored.

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Speaker 2: A little Man Zell in him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no kidding. And the good news is that the

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Speaker 3: offensive line is anchored by one of the best sinners

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Speaker 3: in the nation. The offense, I don't think is going

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Speaker 3: to have anything to stop them from what we saw

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Speaker 3: last year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Ronnie Bell back, the wide receivers more experienced overall

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Speaker 2: in general, they've flashed a lot more in camp. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think the passing game should be a lot more

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Speaker 2: explosive this year. I mean, Bells just such a huge

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Speaker 2: piece for them, and he had his knee brace off today,

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Speaker 2: like he looks fully healthy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And then you have Donovan Edwards, who kind of

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Speaker 3: came on late at the end of last season, can

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Speaker 3: do everything from rushing to receiving to even passing the ball.

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Speaker 3: He's only he was targeted eleven times in the game

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Speaker 3: against Maryland, and it was just an absolute highlight reel.

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Speaker 3: So if you get that for a full season, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I don't know what the limitations are on this Michigan offense,

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Speaker 3: you know, until they run into an elite defense like

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Speaker 3: they did with Georgia in the playoff last year, and

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Speaker 3: then you look at the defensive side of the ball

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Speaker 3: and you think, oh my gosh, Mike McDonald like completely

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Speaker 3: revamped this Michigan defense to where they're not, you know,

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Speaker 3: getting tortured or they get in these big games and

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Speaker 3: they get pushed around. You know, I talked to Jim

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Speaker 3: Harbaugh in depth about this. I always said, you know,

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Speaker 3: Jesse Mintor is also with the Ravens. Can you tell us,

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Speaker 3: you know, tell me the process of how you went

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Speaker 3: to the Ravens and you were, you know, looking at

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Speaker 3: Mike McDonald. He said, listen, we we had Mike McDonald

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Speaker 3: and Jesse Mentor both on the interview list for the

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Speaker 3: job of defensive coordinator. Here at Michigan. We just got

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Speaker 3: farther down the road in the interview process with Mike McDonald,

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Speaker 3: So that's who we took. So when Mike McDonald went

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Speaker 3: back to take over the defensive coordinator duties for the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: who was the first one to call Jesse Mentor. So now,

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Speaker 3: Jesse I wouldn't be surprised if Mike McDonald ever leaves

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, if Jesse Mintor is the guy to step

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Speaker 3: up and take over that job. But I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Harball family here, Sharon, coordinators and assistants like there's

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Speaker 3: no tomorrow. So there's not going to be a drop

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Speaker 3: off in the aggressive blitz or dropping eight and passing downs.

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Speaker 3: There's just not going to be a change. And I

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Speaker 3: expect these two guys that have been in the Ravens

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Speaker 3: you know, coaching system so long, it's going to be

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Speaker 3: the same For Michigan. I think it's just you know,

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Speaker 3: we're going to see more of last year. I think

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Speaker 3: the offense can be even more explosive. I think they

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Speaker 3: can be even more efficient, and that's saying something considering

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Speaker 3: this offense is number one in the nation and Havoc

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Speaker 3: allowed Jim Harbaugh does not like tackles for loss there

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Speaker 3: are not full. He does not tolerate fumbles, you know.

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Speaker 3: So for me, he said media days, we have three goals,

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Speaker 3: beat Michigan State, win the Big Ten, win the national title.

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Speaker 3: He said, we did not beat Michigan State. He couldn't

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Speaker 3: stop repeating about how much you know we didn't beat

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Speaker 3: Michigan States this year. Yeah, well, we don't mention the

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Speaker 3: team from up north, I think, is what I heard.

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Speaker 3: But you know, Michigan State is a game that he'll

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Speaker 3: put all his energy into, so be aware of that

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Speaker 3: on your schedules you go down. But I'm taking over

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Speaker 3: nine and a half. We're not changing things on both

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Speaker 3: sides of the ball. I don't think the new coordinators

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Speaker 3: are going to change, you know, anything about the play calling.

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Speaker 3: And this team's dangerous and they're explosive, and I we

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Speaker 3: have not seen the Michigan offense that is explosive downfield

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Speaker 3: as well as this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, one thing I'll be I have to keep

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Speaker 2: my own as the secondary. You know, you lose Dax Hill,

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Speaker 2: and you know they have some talented players that they're

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Speaker 2: going to plug in there. But that's something that I'm

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Speaker 2: certainly watching all right. Now it's time to bring on

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Speaker 2: our guest for the Big Ten betting previews. And if

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Speaker 2: you listen to all of our podcasts, you should. You

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Speaker 2: should be familiar with them, mister Mike, I and Ella.

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Speaker 2: And if you're not familiar with them, that's the reason

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Speaker 2: I had him on because Mike and Mike has ever

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Speaker 2: heard them do such a good job with our group

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Speaker 2: of five podcasts during the year. If you're like a

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Speaker 2: legacy and you've been with me forever and you're like

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Speaker 2: I only listen to Stuck Evill, stop, you got to

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Speaker 2: listen to the Group of five too, because they do

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Speaker 2: such a great job each and every week. So I

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Speaker 2: wanted to introduce to those of you that aren't familiar

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Speaker 2: and then also for those that aren't get his thoughts

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Speaker 2: on the Big Ten and specifically Penn State because you

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Speaker 2: are a Penn State alum. Correct, mister Ryan Ellen.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I had for worst years you could have been

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Speaker 4: a Penn State student in recent history. Because my freshman

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Speaker 4: year was right after Joe Pod Bill O'Brien, and then

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Speaker 4: the year after I graduated we won the Big Ten.

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Speaker 4: I was stuck there for you know, Matt McGloin and

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Speaker 4: Christian Hackenberg was my four years of college experience.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, happy to be on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I grew up in Pennsylvania. My dad is a

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Speaker 2: die hard Penn State die hard, so I grew up

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Speaker 2: hating Penn State.

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Speaker 4: Now you're in Pennsylvania, you either love Penn State or

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Speaker 4: you hate Pen State, and there's nothing in between. And

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Speaker 4: I will say I'm one of those fans slash gamblers

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Speaker 4: where you'll never see me ever bet on or against

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Speaker 4: Penn State, mostly because I'm just too nervous as it is.

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Speaker 4: I'm nautious every Penn State game regardless, So I actually

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Speaker 4: never bet Pen State games.

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Speaker 2: You already have action, It's already, it's like you already

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Speaker 2: have action on the game. We'll just get into your

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Speaker 2: favorite win total over and then your favorite win total hundred.

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Speaker 2: But we'll start with Penn State. The problem with your

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Speaker 2: Penn State nimylliance is the division they're in. It's not easy,

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Speaker 2: and Ohio State is a big favorite to come out

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Speaker 2: of that division. Now they do have to go to

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Speaker 2: Penn State. I assume that's the white out game. But

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Speaker 2: you know the Penn State win total. When I did

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Speaker 2: the analysis, I said that the win total and the

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Speaker 2: entire season. The trajectory of the season. I win, I

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Speaker 2: didn't even know as I'm wearing I'm wearing a produce shirt.

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Speaker 2: Probably comes down to that Purdue game in Week one.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, I am a very anti conference

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Speaker 2: game Week one guy, I hate them. I don't think

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Speaker 2: that you should start with the conference game. But they're

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Speaker 2: three point favorites. I believe the market's still sitting at three.

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Speaker 2: Obviously a massive game for the win total, for where

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Speaker 2: Penn State's gonna goes. What are your overall thoughts on

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Speaker 2: Penn State as a team. Where are you worried about?

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Speaker 2: What do you feel good about? Do you like the

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Speaker 2: over the under? Is it as simple as I'm making it?

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Speaker 2: And it comes down to that, Probably going to come

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Speaker 2: down to that Perdue game.

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Speaker 4: I'm not as bullish on Purdue, to be honest with you.

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Speaker 4: I actually have as a Penn State win. But I

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Speaker 4: agree to I hate the conference game starting we had

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Speaker 4: to start in Wisconsin last year. Got the win, but

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Speaker 4: that was kind of that crazy game. Jacwon Bridgers in

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Speaker 4: the end zone to end the game.

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Speaker 2: I was a grammar and special that game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: From a nervous Penn State fan, I hate it. Let

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Speaker 4: me ease into it with beating up on a MACT team. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: matter what I say, it's gonna come off as bias,

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Speaker 4: but I do like over eight and a half, I

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Speaker 4: do think they go nine to three. It's never a

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Speaker 4: good sign when you constantly have to defend your quarterback.

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Speaker 4: But Sean Clifford was light years better last year than

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Speaker 4: he was the previous year in his career, fourth year

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Speaker 4: as a starter, one of the most veteran quarterbacks in

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Speaker 4: the country, his second year under Mike year six, which

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Speaker 4: is his first time ever having the same coordinator two

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Speaker 4: years in a row. He had more big time throws

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Speaker 4: last year than the previous three seasons combined. You hear

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Speaker 4: all the talk is like, oh, they lose John Dottson,

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Speaker 4: they lose John Dotson was awesome, But we heard the

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Speaker 4: same thing when we lost Alan Robinson and then Chris

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Speaker 4: Godwin's a star and then he moves on. It's like,

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Speaker 4: how you know puts Godwin and Deshan Hamilton and then

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Speaker 4: kJ Hamler burst onto the scene. And then when Hamler left,

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Speaker 4: it was like, oh, all that speed. Then John Dotson emerges.

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Speaker 4: Now it's just gonna be Parker Washington, Like, I'm not

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Speaker 4: worried about losing Dotson because I think Parker Washington is

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Speaker 4: the next superstar, you know, former four star at eight

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Speaker 4: hundred and twenty yards last year. His hands are unbelievable,

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Speaker 4: Like he could be a first round pick next year

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Speaker 4: as well. Mitchell Tinsley comes in from Western Kentucky, who

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Speaker 4: you know, we love down there in the G five land.

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Speaker 4: They have two stud tight ends. The biggest issue with

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Speaker 4: the offense has always been the running game. You know,

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Speaker 4: they signed Nick Singleton, who's the number one running back

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Speaker 4: in the entire country. I think he gets plenty of carries. Really,

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Speaker 4: I think they are going to use him a lot

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Speaker 4: to begin the year, which is good.

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Speaker 2: Clifford's gotten a lot of shit, but man, he got

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Speaker 2: no help. No in the running game, absolutely none.

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Speaker 6: And he's mobile two, which is good. And you look

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Speaker 6: at last year.

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Speaker 4: You know, people forget they were five and oh fourth

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Speaker 4: in the country and up over they up seventeen.

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Speaker 6: When he got hurt against Iowa.

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Speaker 2: I had Iowa that game probably my luckiest cover of

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Speaker 2: the year.

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Speaker 4: Still clearly hurt against Illinois, I will die on the hill.

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Speaker 4: They go nine and three last year, if Clifford says healthy.

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Speaker 4: So you know, obviously it was disappointing, and you know,

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Speaker 4: if God forbid that happens again. They did sign Drew Aller,

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Speaker 4: who twenty four to seven has the number one quarterback

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Speaker 4: in the country, maybe the least talked about number one

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Speaker 4: quarterback ever. You know, there's so many switch talk about.

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Speaker 4: You know, Quinn, you were as an arch man, and

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Speaker 4: it's like Drew Aller was the number one quarterback this year.

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Speaker 6: I feel like nobody even knows who he is twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty three.

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Speaker 4: By the way, I'm all in under the line take

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Speaker 4: them to win the Big Ten next year with Aler

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Speaker 4: and Singleton as sophomores. Clifford's just going to continue to

432
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 4: get better. We saw it last year. The defense is

433
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 4: always good.

434
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 6: So I'm not really worried about that. They lose Brent Pry.

435
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 4: You can argue Manny Diaz was maybe one of the

436
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 4: best coordinator hires of the off season. I think Ida

437
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 4: is gonna be awesome on this defense. Surely they lose

438
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 4: some key lime, you know, they lose linebackers, they lose

439
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 4: Juan Brisker, who was the heart and soul of that defense.

440
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 4: But Gyra Brown's back. He led the country's interception last year.

441
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 4: Joey Porter Junior is a stud at corner. It's weird.

442
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, And my whole.

443
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 4: Penn State you know, career was like it was the

444
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,719
Speaker 4: d line and the linebackers and the secondary was atrocious

445
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:47,360
Speaker 4: when I was there.

446
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 6: Now it's kind of flipped.

447
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 4: They used to love Curtis Jacobs, who's kind of the next,

448
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 4: you know, linebacker, you stud.

449
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 3: PJ.

450
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 4: Muster for coming back on the defensive line is absolutely was.

451
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 2: The defense was just light night and day with him

452
00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,400
Speaker 2: in the lineup before he got hurt.

453
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 4: I'm stunned he came back. That was like, that was

454
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 4: a big one him coming back to me. There's two

455
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 4: big questions obviously, Brew wonderbacks. One of them is the

456
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 4: offensive line is kind of always a concern at Penn State,

457
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 4: especially recently, and losing Jordan's stout is massive. He was

458
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 4: the number one punter draft he got he got, Yeah,

459
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 4: you're gonna love him. Down to him and Talker, I mean,

460
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 4: that's the best special teams unit in the NFL. So

461
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 4: as far as a win total perspective, I'm giving Penn State, Purdue, Ohio,

462
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 4: Central Michigan, Northwestern Indiana, Maryland Rutgers.

463
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 6: That's seven.

464
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 4: Wintill is eight and a half. So you look at

465
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 4: at Michigan and at Auburn, Auburn probably is gonna stink.

466
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 4: So to me, you have to win one of those

467
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 4: games at Michigan at Auburn. I'm talking Ohio State up

468
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 4: as a loss even though it is at home, just realistically,

469
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 4: and then you got Minnesota and Michigan State at home.

470
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 4: So to me, it's gonna come down in Michigan State,

471
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 4: which is the last game of the year.

472
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 6: It's at home.

473
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 4: We always always always just play weird, bad games against

474
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 4: Michigan State, so that game does scare me. I think

475
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 4: I don't agree with you necessarily only coming down to Purdue.

476
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 4: I think, I mean, it's dumb the state comes out

477
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 4: of last game of the year. I give them seven wins.

478
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 4: You got to win one of the at Michigan at Auburn,

479
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,360
Speaker 4: and then you got to win one of Minnesota Michigan

480
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 4: State at home. So I'm gonna give them at Auburn

481
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 4: and I'm gonna give them Minnesota probably at home. To me,

482
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: that gives you nine to three. You lose to Ohio State, Michigan,

483
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 4: Michigan State, again, So I.

484
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 6: Like over eight and a half.

485
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 4: Personally, I don't think there's a fan base on the

486
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 4: country that is hoping the divisions and conferences goes away. Yeah,

487
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,640
Speaker 4: because we would have made the playoffs in twenty sixteen

488
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 4: and we got we got screwed with that. You know,

489
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 4: we beat Ohio State and then they get in the

490
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 4: playoffs over us.

491
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, no, I mean I agree. I see nine

492
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: to three if they beat Purdue. So my thought, you

493
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: have them beating Purdue. So my thought is like I

494
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 2: don't want to It's a pass for me, Like why

495
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: time if your money because if they also don't lose

496
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 2: the produce, it might be a bad sign of other problems.

497
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 2: So just bet them against Purdue in week one and

498
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 2: you know, to hold your money. But anyway, good stuff there.

499
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: How about quickly run through your favorite over and your

500
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 2: favorite under or undervalued team in the Big Ten outside

501
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: of Penn State.

502
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 4: I think I like under nine for Wisconsin. I think

503
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 4: they're overvalued just because it's Wisconsin. You know, Braylen Allen

504
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 4: is an absolute freak and he's the next in line

505
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 4: of the stud Wisconsin Backs. But I mean Graham Mertz

506
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 4: is just bad. He's just he's not the quarterback we

507
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 4: saw against Illinois through more interceptions than touchdowns. Again last year,

508
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 4: they lose their top two receivers. They lose Jake Ferguson,

509
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 4: which is huge. I mean, if you watch those games,

510
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 4: it was if they're thrown out and if he was

511
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 4: rolling out and Ferguson was not open, it was not

512
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: a completion. So that's such a big low. He was

513
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 4: such a safety blanket for Mertz. They lose eight of

514
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 4: their top ten tacklers. Their schedule is really hard this

515
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 4: year at Ohio State, at Michigan State, at Iowa, at

516
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 4: Nebraska home against Minnesota. So I'm going under on Wisconsin,

517
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: and then my favorite over which kind of hurts Penn

518
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 4: State is Michigan State. You know, their win totals down

519
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 4: at seven and a half. They were eleven and two

520
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 4: last year, so I'm not really seeing where this big

521
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 4: drop off comes from. You know, Peyton Thorn's back. He's

522
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,959
Speaker 4: one of those kind of like underrated, not great. He's

523
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: almost a lot like Sean Clifford. Honestly, where's not great,

524
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 4: but he gets the job done. Sure, they lose Jalen Naylor,

525
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 4: but they bring back Jayden Reid you know, they lose

526
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 4: Kenny Walker, but they bring in Jake Bristars from Colorado

527
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 4: Jalen Berger from Wisconsin. So they're kind of doing the

528
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 4: same thing. And you look at again their schedule. They

529
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 4: got Western Michigan, Akron at Maryland, who I'm really down on,

530
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 4: at Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana.

531
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 6: There's six wins right there.

532
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 4: So they need to win two games of at Washington,

533
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: Minnesota at home, Wisconsin at home at Michigan Apenn State.

534
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 4: They need two of those to go over. So I'm

535
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 4: higher on Michigan State. I don't think they drop off

536
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 4: that much from eleven to two to you know, seven

537
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 4: and five.

538
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 6: So those are probably the win tolls that like.

539
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: The teams that I think can have the biggest bumps

540
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 2: this college football off season are our coordinator movies like

541
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,959
Speaker 2: you Love the DS and it's every year you love

542
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: the DS move for the defense. I think just Minnesota,

543
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,719
Speaker 2: that offensive coordinator was a you know he was. They

544
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 2: were match made in heaven with Morgan you just described

545
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 2: in that system, so good stuff. Mike. Make sure you

546
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: check him and Mike Calabreeze out each and every week

547
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: on the Group of Five. They did a great job

548
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: with myself, Colin and Brett on the Group of Five

549
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: conference previous if you haven't checked them out, Thanks for

550
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 2: joining us, Mike, and good luck with Penn State if

551
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: in any nine overtime games this year.

552
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 6: No problem.

553
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys can. You guys can clearly listen to

554
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 4: my Penn State bias. When Stucky bullied me into betting

555
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,360
Speaker 4: Akron plus one hundred to one Joe Morehead to win

556
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 4: the win, the Max Ducky bullied me into that in

557
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 4: our Mac previews. So we're all aboard Jomo and the

558
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 4: Zips this year as well.

559
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 2: Perfect time to end there, go Zips, go more ahead.

560
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 2: Thanks again, Mike, Thanks Doug, all right, thanks again to Mike.

561
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out the Group of Five podcasts

562
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: each and every week. We love those guys, So Colin,

563
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 2: we covered Penn State pretty in depth. Mike also likes

564
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 2: the Michigan State over He doesn't see as big of

565
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 2: a drop as the market is implying from what they

566
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 2: won eleven games last year. On second order win totals,

567
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: they probably pop up a lot because they were what

568
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: they went seven to two in the big time, they

569
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: were negative yard differential, there were four to zero and

570
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 2: one possession games, but you also like the over. I'm

571
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 2: like seven point nine right around there, seven eighty four

572
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: on the dot, so if I had to, I would

573
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: go over. There's there's some there's some winnable games on here,

574
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 2: but there's you know, they have four gummeas their underdog

575
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 2: four times, and then they're a favorite. Is four four

576
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 2: times as a single digit favorite. There's just some tough

577
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 2: spots that would give me a little hesitation. They if

578
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: you just break down the nuances of the schedule. So

579
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 2: you know, they go to Maryland and they'll be a

580
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 2: small favorite there, but that's before Ohio State, and you know,

581
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: then they get Wisconsin at home, which is like a

582
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 2: coin flip game between Ohio State and Michigan. And then

583
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 2: after this huge run of this is a brutal stretch,

584
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 2: by the way, at Washington out of conference coin flippish game,

585
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 2: then your home against Minnesota, then you're at Maryland, then

586
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: your home against Ohio State, then your home against Wisconsin,

587
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: then you're at Michigan. After that brutal stretch, then you

588
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: go to Illinois, so like kind of letdown ish, and

589
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 2: that is a set that is a seven game stretch,

590
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: which is absolutely brutal. So you should win their first two,

591
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 2: they should win their last two. How does how do

592
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 2: they handle kind of you know, can they upset someone

593
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: in there? Do they get trapped a couple of times?

594
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of worried about their schedule, just how

595
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 2: it sets up. So it's a stay away for me.

596
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on SPARTI?

597
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 3: I am a believer in mil Tucker. This guy just

598
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: runs around, you know, buy his NFT.

599
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: He's not like an NFT coming out on a token.

600
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 3: Gosh, I gotta stop and showey Otani n FT's and

601
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 3: give me a mel Tucker n FT. The guy just

602
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: runs around with a chip on his shoulder. That's the

603
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 3: way he lives his life. That's the way he coaches

604
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 3: his team. Seven and two against the spread as an

605
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 3: underdog so far, and he covered every non conference game

606
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 3: last season. He does not take a week off, and

607
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: his attitude is legitimately always little brother mode. Right. He

608
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: adopts that. He puts that on his players and they

609
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 3: beat expectations so far since Meltucker has been there, And

610
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 3: you know you don't kind of threw out the two

611
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 3: and five records from the pandemic season because there was

612
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 3: up There was an upset in there that he shouldn't

613
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 3: have had. But you know, you have to look at

614
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 3: the player personal. Kenneth Walker's gone, Jalen Naylor's gone to

615
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 3: the most explosive players in the Big Ten along with

616
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,919
Speaker 3: the offensive line. They all depart and they leave huge holes.

617
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,719
Speaker 3: But the Spartans got over sixty eight hundred snaps from

618
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 3: the transfer portal, plus eight players gained. Former Wisconsin running

619
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 3: back Jalen Berger was dismissed from Wisconsin, but now he's

620
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 3: on the squad here. We don't know what happened there.

621
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: He wasn't gonna get any playing time with Braylen Allen,

622
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 3: who will talk about and then Colorado's Jared Bussard. You

623
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 3: would think somebody that Meltucker recruited before he took off

624
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 3: for East Lansing is going to come in. They're going

625
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 3: to fill the role of Kenneth Walker. And then in

626
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 3: the air game, it's all about Jayden Reid, somebody that

627
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 3: can do special teams, somebody that's going to be one

628
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 3: of the most electric wide receivers in the nation hauling

629
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 3: in passes from Peyton Thorn. So I don't see a

630
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: monster drop off. Even though Kenneth Walker, the Heisman hopeful,

631
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 3: is not there. I don't see it dropping off that much.

632
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 2: Good transfers, and the hope is that the pass defense

633
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 2: gets a lot better because it was absolutely very experienced secondary.

634
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: Now you out a Georgia corner and I like some

635
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 2: of the linebackers that brought in Power five that the

636
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 2: hope is that the past defense gets better because that

637
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: it was just absolutely dreadful and Ohio State exposed them

638
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: in that regard. But there should be someone proof.

639
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 3: That you could think yeah, and that's because of the

640
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: scheme that Scotty Hazelton is calling. But this team got

641
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: very comfortable rushing three and dropping eight and letting everybody

642
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 3: have the middle of the field. But then when you're

643
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 3: finishing drives, when your defense doesn't hold up past the forty,

644
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: it's you know you're going to get into boat races,

645
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 3: which is you and I. I mean you and I

646
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: were betting overs weekend week out, and I think by

647
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: the third quarter you and I were cashing tickets. There's

648
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: a chance this team could win ten games. They're gonna

649
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 3: be favorites in eight. I'm taking over seven a half,

650
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: even though I projected at seven point seven, and considering

651
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: mil Tucker's history as an underdog history against non conference play,

652
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna snap somebody up. I don't know

653
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 3: if it's Michigan, if it's a house state, but these

654
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 3: conference odds that came out of like sixty to one

655
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,479
Speaker 3: true odds for Michigan State should be about twenty two

656
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 3: to one to win this conference. I'm not saying go

657
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: out and spend a whole bunch on forty to one,

658
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: sixty to one, whatever these numbers are, but that is

659
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: way too high on these guys.

660
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Maryland, we agree that numbers about right. We'll see

661
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: if with another defensive coordinator, if they can improve on

662
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 2: that side of the ball, and if they can stop

663
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: turning the ball over. Hope is that a new kicker

664
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 2: transfer kicker Island is pretty reliable, will help their special teams.

665
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: But it's a mac kicker, so we'll see. But it's

666
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 2: going to be the same old Maryland store. They're gonna

667
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: be able to score. They have an electric receiving room.

668
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 2: I think the number is about right. The two teams

669
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: bringing up the rear in the Big Tennis, Indiana and

670
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 2: Rutgers win totals both of their win totals sitting at

671
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: both teams have ongoing quarterback jobs at Indiana or Rutgers,

672
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: I mean Indiana. The quarterback play at both of these

673
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 2: schools last year was absolutely dreadful. I think both numbers

674
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 2: are spot on here. Yeah, I'll give you just a

675
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: couple of sentences on each team and if you like

676
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 2: the over under and each.

677
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 3: I'm laying off of a Maryland future. I do love

678
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: to watch this team, especially how explosive they are on offense.

679
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: With Dante Dimas coming back fully healthy, Rakeem Jared is

680
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: another weapon on the outside. Talia Tagovola finished sixth best

681
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: and uncatchable pass rate. I mean he's accurate and that's fantastic,

682
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: But Sephany's.

683
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 2: Throwing pick six is to burn me. Against Bence State,

684
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: they come in dozens.

685
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: But you know, I think the one game that you

686
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 3: need to look out for in Maryland schedule SMU. If

687
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 3: you want to go over the win total of Maryland,

688
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: they have to beat SMU. And if you look at SMU,

689
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: that game against Maryland falls the week before the Mustangs

690
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: face their old coach, Sunny Dikes. I'm not sure they're

691
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 3: going to have a care in the world about playing

692
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 3: Maryland when they got Sunny Dikes. A little bit of

693
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 3: off field stuff, you know that happened when Sunny Dikes

694
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 3: left the campus. And I think that that roster for

695
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: sum is going to be ready to go and not

696
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: really looking at Maryland, So I would go there. Indiana.

697
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 3: As much as I enjoyed meeting head coach Tom Allen,

698
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 3: I think nicest guy I met out of all coaching circles.

699
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 3: His team's going the wrong direction, completely the wrong direction.

700
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 3: You were bringing Connor Baslac from Missouri. He had more

701
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 3: turnover worthy plays in big time throws. Last year. You

702
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 3: have gotten Walt Bell as your offensive coordinator from UMass.

703
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 3: There was struggles between Bell's coaching style and the players.

704
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: It never sat well. I think there was going to

705
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 3: be a strike. There was all kinds of things going

706
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 3: on up at UMass. His previous stop at Florida State,

707
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: there were rumors of Willie Tagger taking his play calling away.

708
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 3: So if we're trying to find answers in the post,

709
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 3: Michael Pennix, Kaylan de borr Era, I don't think Walt

710
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 3: Bell is it and Connor Beazlak is definitely not it.

711
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 2: If you're going to bet their win total of this Wait, Like,

712
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 2: if you if you like them, if you like some

713
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: of the chances they brought in. I mean, last year

714
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: their quarterbacks, they sort of four quarterbacks including a walk on.

715
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: They had nine touchdowns and fifteen interceptions with a fifty

716
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 2: one percent completion percentage. And I don't see it getting

717
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 2: much better this year. Save your money. We have three

718
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: winnable games to start the year against Illinois, Idaho, and

719
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky's off of bye. They also have

720
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 2: to play Nebraska off of bye, Rutgers off of the bye.

721
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,719
Speaker 2: They have two road trips, two separate back to back

722
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: road trips Cincinnati, Nebraska in Ohio State and Michigan State.

723
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 2: So after those first three, like, if they don't beat Illinois,

724
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: not a given, And if they don't beat Western Kentucky

725
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: off by not a given, it's not going over. It's

726
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: gonna get ugly. So they better start three and now

727
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 2: because then it gets brutal. This is the top ten schedule.

728
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: How about Rutgers, what do you see there?

729
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Rutgers is an underplay too. I mean, I'm happy

730
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 3: that they've made a Bowl last year and Shiano's continuing

731
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 3: to you know, get the recruiting profile going up, but

732
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: I'm not a believer. And then Taj Harris coming in

733
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 3: via portal from Syracuse. I mean, he breaks a lot

734
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 3: of tackles, but he's supposed he's supposed to fill bow

735
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 3: Melton's role, but he's just not the same wide receiver.

736
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 3: All of this is on quarterback Gavin wimsat four star recruit.

737
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: It's going to be one of the highest recruits that

738
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 3: Rutgers has ever had. You know, I'm not banking on

739
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 3: it whatsoever. So other than fumble, Look, I don't know

740
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 3: how they get the five wins.

741
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 2: I mean, they're gonna be a really good punter. They do.

742
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 3: And by the way, I have a video I asked them.

743
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 3: I said, now that the punk God is in the NFL,

744
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 3: what would you like your nickname to be? What nickname

745
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: can we give you? Do you already have a nickname

746
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: around campus? Like when we start referring to you as

747
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: the best punter in the nation. What nickname would you

748
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 3: like the Australian punt God or what would you like

749
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 3: to be doing?

750
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: Yeah?

751
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: No, I don't know. I can't really pick my own nickname.

752
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: I guess my nickname around campus is it's just like

753
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: generally just Ausie. I don't even think anyone knows my

754
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: first name or last name. It's just Aussie and Punner.

755
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 1: That's the two I normally get. These guys can get

756
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: creative with it, and generally these guys are pretty good

757
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: with the nicknames.

758
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 3: So stuck here on the clock for getting Rutgers Punter

759
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 3: a new nickname out. But uh yeah, under for these guys,

760
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: they're gonna pun a lot.

761
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: I haven't projected at around four, but I have them

762
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: a double digit underdog at seven. They're a realistic ceiling

763
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: it's like five and a realistic floor is two. So

764
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 2: if I were to go one way or the other

765
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: on the over under, I would go under linebacker, which

766
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: was you know last year a lot of experience. They

767
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: had three linebackers like buying for eighty four starts and

768
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 2: eight hundred and fifty tackles that are gone, had more

769
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: injuries to linebacker and spring a very questionable linebacker group.

770
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens to Rutgers. But also, like Indiana,

771
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 2: quarterback situation is and they have a top ten schedule,

772
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: top ten shrinky schedule, it's not a rescue for success, allright,

773
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: that's wanted. The Big ten West Wisconsin plus one seventy

774
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: to take it home. Nebraska is sitting in a round

775
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 2: plus three fifty Iowa plus four hundred, Minnesota plus five hundred,

776
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,280
Speaker 2: Purdue plus six hundred, that Illinois thirty to one, Northwestern

777
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 2: one hundred to one. So you can see a little more,

778
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 2: a little more wide open then the Big tennis without

779
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: Ohio State there at the top. And look, one of

780
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 2: the things you noticed when you look at the Big

781
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 2: ten is listen to some of these names, Graham Marks,

782
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 2: Sean Clifford, Spencer, Petris, Tanner, Morgan, Connor, Beazlek, Ryan Helenski, Devido,

783
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: no Evedril, all these quarterbacks that have been around that

784
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 2: have not had a success there still around. Somehow he

785
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: still has the jobs. And that's the same case with

786
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: our boy, your boy Graham Mertz, who is gonna get

787
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,240
Speaker 2: the job again because who's the wolf is not getting

788
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 2: it the backup it's gonna get Mertzurts is gonna have

789
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: another chance, and what can he do? He will have

790
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 2: one of the best running backs in the country, I think,

791
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 2: potentially the best talent wise, but there are other questions

792
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: on this RUSS. So the offensive line is not solidified yet,

793
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: and that usually is obviously at receiver. There's a new

794
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator, Bobby Ingram, who wants to pass it more.

795
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 2: You want to do that with Graham Mertz, I had

796
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: spread it out more. We'll see how that works out.

797
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 2: And then the defense, which Jim Leonard is gonna get

798
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: a big time job eventually always does a great by

799
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 2: the way, I think Wisconsin's offensive line is gonna be excellent,

800
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: but there's still some questions on a couple of spots.

801
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 2: But the defense, which Leonard always has just right in line,

802
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: is one of the best in the country. Lost a

803
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: lot a lot of talent, especially at inside linebacker. The

804
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: linebacker they're gonna think their fourth linebacker coach too in

805
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: the last year. So there's we've got a lot of

806
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 2: questions on this defense, which usually can rely on with Wisconsin.

807
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 2: Can you really trust Graham Mertz? I have them projected

808
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 2: at eight point twenty four win total, not over nine

809
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 2: plus one ten, so I'd lean under here. They have

810
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: a loss at Ohio State, you can chalk up. They

811
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 2: have four gimme wins. Have them favored around right around

812
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 2: minus nine to ten and four other games and then

813
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 2: small dogs in a couple. But I think it's under

814
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: or nothing with Wisconsin because the defense just lost too

815
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 2: much and you just can't trust Graham Mertz.

816
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm done putting money on Graham Mertz more

817
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 3: turnover worthy plays and interceptions than big time throws and tds.

818
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: His numbers slightly improved with pressure in the pocket.

819
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:42,879
Speaker 2: But it's not that great.

820
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 3: And what you're going to pass the ball with Braylen

821
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 3: Allen in the backfield, So yeah, it's all running. And

822
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 3: the good news is they have at least five offensive

823
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 3: line with three hundred career snaps. But it is a

824
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 3: crossover schedule from hell.

825
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 2: If you look at the odds with the Big ten West,

826
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: the three favorites or Island Nebraska, Wisconsin, Wisconsin goes on

827
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,439
Speaker 2: the to both yep.

828
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: So they're not my play to win the West at all.

829
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 3: I mean at Iowa at Nebraska, you know, I mean,

830
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 3: the under is the play here. You'd want a hedge

831
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 3: position in Lincoln on November nineteenth, But I'm not playing

832
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 3: Wisconsin whatsoever.

833
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 2: Moving on to Iowa win total over seven and a

834
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 2: half minus one of five minus one ten. Guess what

835
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,280
Speaker 2: Iowa city in the state, entire state of Iowa outside

836
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 2: of Ames, I make your win total eight point zero one.

837
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: I don't show value on the under. They have coaching stability.

838
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: And guess what I just I gave a bump to

839
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 2: Iowa because I'm tired of just them over performing. And

840
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 2: I went back and I just double checked all the

841
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: things to talked about last year. Every year they're gonna

842
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 2: have great special teams, they're gonna win the turnover battle,

843
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: they're not gonna get penalties, all these little things. They're

844
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 2: gonna overperform. So like, yeah, I'm not betting they're over

845
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 2: I have them at eight. And then it comes down

846
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 2: to the quarterback. Lay Spencer peaches. How consistent could he be?

847
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 2: What does this offense look like? There's a lot lot

848
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 2: of questions on the roster. They also draw Ohio State

849
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: and Michigan out of the East. They do get Wisconsin

850
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: Nebraska at home, so it could potentially be good for

851
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 2: the division. By the way, at Illinois rutal spot, Illinois

852
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 2: has some good spots. They go they play Michigan and

853
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 2: then they go to Illinois before going to Ohio State.

854
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: A little trappy, so we'll see if the defensive line

855
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 2: could generate happening. So there's some questions with this team,

856
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 2: but I have them favored by double digits in six games,

857
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: clear loss at Ohio State and then like five coin flips.

858
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 2: Think you know, the last four games of the year

859
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: of all coin flips basically minus three, minus three, minus three.

860
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: So nothing for me. They're going to outperform metrics. That's

861
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do. So I'm not going under Yeah.

862
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 3: I mean Iowa's Iowa. I'm not sure if for instance,

863
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: those that this transfer portal exists, they brought in just

864
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 3: one player, you know, so eighty two percent of the

865
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 3: offense returns. They lose one of their best running backs

866
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 3: over to Purdue that we'll talk about. But you know,

867
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 3: there's really two sides to Spencer Petris. There's a best

868
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 3: season ever from a decision making standpoint, by increasing his

869
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 3: big time turnover to turnover worthy play ratio. But then

870
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 3: there's a Spencer Peatrice that was benched and through just

871
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 3: a single TD in seven ie t's in the second

872
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 3: half of the season. So we'll see which one shows

873
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 3: up this year. Tied in Sam Laporta is still there,

874
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 3: He's going to be the biggest weapon on offense on

875
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: every down. And the Hawkey's defense was stellar per usual,

876
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: and Jack Campbell is just a big, oversized linebacker that

877
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 3: just destroys everything that he runs into. And Riley Moss,

878
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 3: the pick six King, is back, and you know Iowa

879
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: is going to be double digit favorites in six games.

880
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 3: So you know there's a projected spread, like Stuck said,

881
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: of five or less the entire month of November against Perdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska.

882
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 3: So this isn't over for me. I expect Iowa to

883
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:43,959
Speaker 3: keep doing Iowa things and end up in a bowl

884
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 3: with eight wins on New Year's Day.

885
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Nebraska, who I think

886
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 2: we both like to win this division. So I'm sure

887
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 2: that will end well Nebraska.

888
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: Honestly, it's not for everyone.

889
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: There are plus three fifty to win the division over

890
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 2: seven and a half minus one twenty played over seven

891
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 2: half minuts one ten. It is my favorite and only

892
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 2: win total that I played so far in the Big ten.

893
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: It is the one I show the biggest edge on

894
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 2: by far, and one of my biggest bets that I've made.

895
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 2: I showed Nebraska luck. I mean, there's a lot of

896
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: things that I like what they did in the offseason.

897
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 2: I think Casey Thompson will be fine. They did lose

898
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 2: to you know, a lot of key pieces that you

899
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: have to be a little concerned about, the NFL cornerback,

900
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 2: their interior offensive line, but they brought a ton in

901
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 2: to the transfer portal. I love what they did there.

902
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 2: I love some of the coaches they brought in, specifically

903
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: offensive couidator Mark Whipple. I think the offense will be fine.

904
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: Remember this is a team last year that inexplicably went

905
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 2: oh in nine, oh in nine in one possession games.

906
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: They somehow went one in eight in the Big Ten

907
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: with a positive point differential. I don't even know how

908
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 2: that's possible. A lot of positive regression potentially coming. But

909
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 2: I like some of the players that they brought in.

910
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 2: I think Casey Thompson will be fine. And I love

911
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 2: the schedule. First nine games. I have them favored at

912
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: all nine, eight by double digits. The only one I'd

913
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 2: down is the home against Oklahoma, and I'm probably I

914
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 2: love that matchup. Win just those games and you are

915
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 2: eight wins and you clear the win total, and that's

916
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 2: before a coin flip at Ohio to close the year,

917
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: you know there'll be a dog. Maybe we'reun a touchdown

918
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 2: in Michigan, and then they'll be favored at home against Wisconsin.

919
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: Before we even get to those last three games. Even

920
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: if you lose to Oklahoma, just win. The eight games

921
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 2: are very by double digits. Now we know Nebraska doesn't

922
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 2: like to do that. But about a positive aggression coming.

923
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 2: I love who they brought in, I love the coaches

924
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 2: that they brought in. And then one of the biggest things,

925
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 2: why did Nebraska lose so many close games? Well a

926
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: lot of it was mental errors, which you hope that

927
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 2: they can fix, and special teams blunders. I can't even

928
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 2: count how many times Nebraska's lost games over the past

929
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 2: fews because of special teams. Well, what do they have now,

930
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: a special teams coordinator for the first time since twenty sixteen.

931
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 2: What did they bring in the FCS kicker, punter of

932
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 2: the year, brought in reliable ers from the transfer portal

933
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 2: FCS level as well. Then the return game should be

934
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: much better. This special teams, which this is a team

935
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: that lost. You look at the Michigan State game, remember

936
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: the punt there return games punt and kick. We're among

937
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 2: its the worse than the nation. I think this potentially

938
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: could be your most improved special teams unit in the nation,

939
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 2: which could turn some of those close losses into wins.

940
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: Love the schedule, love the team, loved the potential regression coming,

941
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 2: and most importantly I love the number. And they have

942
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 2: void Ohio State, Ben State, and Michigan State give you

943
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 2: the bresk over. And I also love them to win

944
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 2: the division. I'm with you there.

945
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 3: Anything you want to add, Yeah, my bet is on

946
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 3: the division plus three eighty. And you know, I think

947
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,479
Speaker 3: when Scott Frost showed up to Big Ten media days,

948
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 3: he looked very unhappy to be there. He didn't really

949
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: enjoy answering questions about how he has essentially no grip

950
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 3: on this offense whatsoever. His comment was the same, no

951
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 3: matter what was asked. Whips is in charge, Whips is

952
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 3: running with it. Whips is the one doing that. So

953
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 3: he's referring to Mark Whipple coming over from Pitt. I

954
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 3: don't think he's exactly happy to an athletic director. Trev

955
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 3: Alberts is putting all this on him. But if it

956
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: turns out to be wins everybody's going to be happy.

957
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 3: But Frost is not in control of this team whatsoever.

958
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 3: Trev Alberts is the one pulling the strings here. So

959
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 3: we'll see how Mark Whipple turns out running that offense.

960
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,399
Speaker 3: We'll see if Frost kind of overrules him on game

961
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: day execution, what to do on fourth downs, what to

962
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 3: do in certain situations. You know, the biggest transfer you mentioned,

963
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 3: Casey Thompson is coming in a quarterback out with Adrian Martinez,

964
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: and you're going to get a kid that was at

965
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 3: Texas and we still do not know what his ceiling

966
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 3: can be because there are games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma

967
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 3: and Kansas we're at a sixteen to two TD to

968
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 3: I in t ratio. But then there's games where, you know,

969
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 3: against TCU where he had four turnover worthy plays and

970
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 3: look terrible. So you know the source of all this

971
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 3: is pressure. When Casey Thompson doesn't have pressure, he had

972
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:57,240
Speaker 3: twenty two tds and four interceptions. When he does have pressure,

973
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 3: his turnover worthy plays triple his big throws. New offensive

974
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 3: line coach comes in, Donovan Royola. He was with the

975
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 3: Bears for three years. So if you go do some

976
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 3: digging on the Bears dead last and adjusted sac rate

977
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,320
Speaker 3: last year, So we'll see how much Royola was a

978
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 3: part of that or if it was just maybe the

979
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 3: unit itself. And I agree with you, you know, I

980
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: like this Nebraska team. The schedule is just so easy

981
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 3: leading up to Thanksgiving week. You could take a ticket

982
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,399
Speaker 3: like I did on the division at plus three eighty

983
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 3: and you don't have to worry about it until Wisconsin

984
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 3: and Iowa and Michigan come up there in mid November.

985
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 3: So this is something where you kind of I remember

986
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 3: the little ron CoA Steamers. You said it, you forget it.

987
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 3: I would bet on it. I wouldn't worry about it

988
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 3: till November. You don't need a hedge plan at the

989
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 3: beginning of the season. Just see how things play out.

990
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 3: All you guys in the SUP book, you follow all instructions.

991
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 4: And you.

992
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 3: Either this is going to go extremely poorly with the

993
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 3: way Frost has been kind of removed from the game execution,

994
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 3: or it's gonna go real smooth and they're gonna win

995
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 3: this division. They're gonna be playing in the Big Ten

996
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 3: championship games. So I'm betting on the ladder.

997
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,919
Speaker 2: YEP, I completely agree. Before November twelfth. There are only

998
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: two road games before November twelve. They're at Purdue and

999
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: at Rutgers Minnesota. I do like the upside of bringing

1000
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: in sorokas the offensive quidator again who just you know

1001
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 2: with his RPO quick slant scheme. He had so much

1002
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 2: success with Tanner Morgan before leaving. Now he's back and

1003
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 2: I think that'll that could potentially do wonders for the offense.

1004
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: But there are questions on the offensive line, receiver across

1005
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: you know. I have them as what a touchdown dog

1006
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 2: in four games. Their win total is sitting at set

1007
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 2: over seven and a half minus one thirty. Not much

1008
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:42,959
Speaker 2: room for era there. I project them at six point

1009
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 2: ninety two, so I would lean the under if anything,

1010
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 2: but I do respect that I love that offensive quidad move.

1011
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 2: So I'm personally staying away. You want to add a

1012
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:55,760
Speaker 2: sentence or two or why you're going to under on Minnesota.

1013
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm going under because of the offensive line and experience.

1014
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 3: The front seven on DEEF is inexperienced. The trenches on

1015
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: both sides of the ball can be taken advantage of.

1016
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 3: I'm glad that there are holdover players from the Kirk

1017
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 3: Soroka era when he was there. Listen, Minnesota just does

1018
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 3: not have it in the trench to hang with some

1019
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 3: of the teams on this schedule. The trench is going

1020
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 3: to be a thorn in the side of PJ. Fleck

1021
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: through a lot of these games. I projects six point eight,

1022
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 3: so under is the play.

1023
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 2: Northwestern. We won't touch too much on their over four

1024
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: minus one oh five. They should be favored in four games,

1025
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 2: but only two gimmes. You know, they've got Miami, Ohio

1026
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,879
Speaker 2: at home far from mc gimme, and then they'll probably

1027
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 2: be favored at home against Illinois to close up the year.

1028
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 2: Just wait for that game. But it's a you know,

1029
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 2: Northwest or for whatever reason. Pat Pittrail the defensive coordinator.

1030
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 2: The new defensive coordinator struggled immensely last year with Jim O'Neil.

1031
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 2: We'll see if he can get it together in the

1032
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 2: year two. But because teth half Fitzchild bad year than

1033
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 2: good year. Usually I have a bounce back in Northwestern

1034
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 2: a lot of times does out and perform their metrics.

1035
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 2: The last team we'll touch on is Purdue. Look eight.

1036
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 2: O'Connell's back at quarterback. Purdus win total over seven and

1037
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 2: a half plus one twenty five. I project six point

1038
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 2: five too. This is an under that I may end

1039
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: up adding wearing Purdue gear. But then part of me

1040
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 2: just says it's probably gonna come down to like the

1041
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 2: Penn State game to start the year, or maybe the

1042
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 2: Indiana gain to close out the year. So I want

1043
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 2: to tie up my money, but I do have a

1044
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 2: lot of questions with this roster. You know. The good

1045
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 2: thing is they avoid Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State,

1046
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 2: and they have an easy road schedule, right like Hughes Many, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana.

1047
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: A lot of their tougher conference schemes are at home.

1048
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 2: But I generally don't like that for an over with

1049
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: a middling team. What cany O'Connell do to make everyone

1050
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 2: around him better is the biggest question. Right, there's no

1051
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 2: David Bell, there's no right, there's like, there's not a

1052
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 2: lot of talent on the outside, and there's the running

1053
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 2: game is non existent, so there's no explosiveness. There were

1054
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirtyeth in passing explosive last year and

1055
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 2: now they're a lot less talented than the outside of

1056
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 2: receiver and they have no running games, So I mean,

1057
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 2: how much can O'Connor really do He's not playing the

1058
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee defense in a bowl game. Carlaughis is a huge

1059
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 2: loss on the defense side of the ball. His stats

1060
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,919
Speaker 2: won't value, but he's at the attention that he drew

1061
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 2: on that defensive line with double and triple teams freed

1062
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 2: up a lot of other things that they were able

1063
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 2: to do. So I have a lot of questions about Purdue.

1064
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 2: But the first game I hate these conference get to

1065
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 2: start at home against Penn State. The field go under

1066
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: all that sets the tone for a whole year. They

1067
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 2: win that, all of a sudden, you know they're gonna

1068
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 2: have a chance to go over they lose that, It's

1069
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 2: going to be tough. So I'm not sure I want

1070
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 2: to tie my money. Any quick thought before we wrap

1071
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 2: this up.

1072
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 3: Pat Fitzgerald told everybody a big ten media days that

1073
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 3: the formula for backing Northwestern is whin he has experienced.

1074
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 3: He said that flat out last year. He said, literally,

1075
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 3: I thought I was listening to my own podcast last

1076
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 3: year when I heard him get up there and say

1077
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: we were the lowest team in returning production last season.

1078
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 3: That's why we started off and played so poorly this season.

1079
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 3: Before that, we were the highest team in returning production,

1080
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 3: and look at the kind of results we had. And

1081
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 3: I'm just sitting there like Pat fits Gerald is speaking

1082
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 3: my language. So if you're a believer in that they

1083
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: get eighty percent of their offensive line snaps back, the

1084
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 3: schedule says that they can easily get to four, I

1085
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 3: don't know where the fifth win is, but you know,

1086
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 3: play play Northwestern. When Pat Fitzgerald says we have experience

1087
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 3: as far as Purdue goes, you're right. Aiden O'Connell elevated

1088
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 3: himself so well in that offense. The Jack Plumber transferred

1089
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 3: to Cal. No room for Jack Plumber anymore. O'Connell finished

1090
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 3: up tenth highest graded quarterback in the Power five last year.

1091
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 3: But I have issues with this team too. And this

1092
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 3: is the hot name, right, this is the name that

1093
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 3: everybody is saying can win this division and move on

1094
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 3: and play in the Big Ten championship game. But you know,

1095
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 3: there's just you know, the defense loses two key pieces.

1096
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,280
Speaker 3: One is George call Offtus at edge and then coordinator

1097
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,720
Speaker 3: Brad Lambert. He moved on to Wake Forest and Lambert

1098
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 3: moved this team inside the top twenty five in tackling,

1099
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 3: and he limited explosive plays and passing downs. Lambert has

1100
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: created havoc everywhere that he's been so, you know, that's

1101
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 3: good for Wake, that's kind of bad news for Purdue

1102
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 3: and the opening it's Penn State is just a real

1103
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 3: matchup issue. The Nitney Lyons are projected to have one

1104
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 3: of the best secondary units in the conference, if not

1105
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 3: in the country, and so that really, I mean, I

1106
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 3: might be taking Penn State in week one. I'm still

1107
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 3: doing a deep dive on that. See how Sean Clifford's doing.

1108
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 3: But Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska, those are coin flip games. But

1109
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 3: those are teams with no experience at linebackers, so Aidan

1110
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 3: O'Connell can expose them. So I think really it's a

1111
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,879
Speaker 3: game to game thing on Purdue. Can the back seven

1112
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 3: handle what Aidan O'Connell wants to do? You know, my

1113
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 3: projection is a little bit lower than the seven and

1114
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,840
Speaker 3: a half. They're the hot name, they're steaming in the market.

1115
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: Everybody expects a lot from them, But Brad Lambert's gone

1116
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 3: from that defense. Defense is gonna step back. Their best

1117
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 3: player at the defensive line not there anymore, So I'm

1118
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 3: kind of cool on Purdue here, and I think Penn

1119
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 3: State's going to be a play for me early.

1120
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I should have mentioned with Northwestern, we'll see who

1121
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,840
Speaker 2: wins that quarterback job. I would assume it's Ryan Lenski,

1122
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,280
Speaker 2: but there's a I think Sullivan the freshman is impressing

1123
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 2: in camp, and and I don't think a starter has

1124
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:54,399
Speaker 2: been named.

1125
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 3: And when your first game is in Dublin, are you

1126
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 3: not playing a guy named Sullivan?

1127
00:50:57,760 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, fair enough. I don't think Indiana's they have to

1128
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 2: start under either between Tunnel, who's terrible and Connor Bazlek,

1129
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 2: who was terrible last year. I should mention that. And

1130
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:08,959
Speaker 2: then Nebraska technically has a name. They start up between

1131
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: Thompson and Pretty, but I imagine Thompson will get it.

1132
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 2: Iowa Peterrison and Padilla Peachris should start. I don't know

1133
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: if it's Padier or Padilla. I've heard both names called Rutgers,

1134
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 2: Vedrol or they have a young kid, Simon or Wisp.

1135
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 2: I would assume lis Man gets it, but we'll see.

1136
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 2: And then the last one we didn't mention, Illinois Arts

1137
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 2: and KAlSi, who's awful. H and Tommy Devita who they

1138
00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 2: brought in. I think he fits kind of what they

1139
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 2: want to do. I love what Illinois did on the

1140
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 2: defense last year. I love Ryan Walters a defensive coordinator.

1141
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 2: What a jump and efficiency they had, especially against the pass.

1142
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,799
Speaker 2: The problem is it's hard to find a lot of wins.

1143
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 2: They got to start. You know, they could start four

1144
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,839
Speaker 2: and out. They're gonna they're wyoming at home, then they're

1145
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:51,320
Speaker 2: at Indiana, then home against Virginia, and then home against Chattanooga.

1146
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 2: Then things get a little messy. I only have them

1147
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: favorite of the two games. I've projected four point four

1148
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,439
Speaker 2: to three. If I had to bet it, I would

1149
00:51:58,440 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 2: go over. But I think the number is about right

1150
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 2: Before we wrap up, and we'll talk about Illinois some

1151
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 2: more because they're gonna be playing a week to zero

1152
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 2: favorite future and indoor win total. I don't think we

1153
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 2: need to go into the predictions for who wins the

1154
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: big time because I think we both agree it's going

1155
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:13,919
Speaker 2: to be ohigh to State.

1156
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:16,040
Speaker 3: But what do you got Listen, there's no edge in

1157
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 3: the number. But I think Michigan's going to go over

1158
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 3: nine and a half. I don't think that we have

1159
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 3: seen how electric that this offense can be something that

1160
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 3: we're not really used to with Michigan. Last year was

1161
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 3: ground and pound, but now Donovan Edwards is gonna get

1162
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,439
Speaker 3: more touches. Ronnie Bell comes back from the offensive side.

1163
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 3: They got two capable quarterbacks, and Hardwall is going to

1164
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 3: continue to ride the hot hand. It doesn't matter that court,

1165
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 3: and there's new coordinators on both sides of the ball

1166
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 3: because they're gonna run the same schemes. It's not going

1167
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 3: to change much what's going on. And this schedule is

1168
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 3: conduce so that they're going to be favored all the

1169
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 3: way up into Ohio State. So I like Michigan over

1170
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 3: nine and a half, and then from a future's perspective,

1171
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 3: Nebraska plus three eighty is something that you a ticket

1172
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 3: that you could put in your pocket and you don't

1173
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 3: have to worry about it until the middle of November

1174
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: when that schedule really counts, specifically Wisconsin and Iowa at

1175
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 3: the end of the season, and what's going to decide

1176
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 3: this division Casey Thompson has a very high ceiling, also

1177
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 3: a very low floor, but that's going to work well

1178
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 3: with Mark Whipple coming in as offensive coordinator and as

1179
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 3: long as Scott Frost can gets some attention on those

1180
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 3: special teams, which have been near dead last in the

1181
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,319
Speaker 3: nation for years. If they can get some improvement there,

1182
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 3: Nebraska's going to return to be in the old corn Huskers.

1183
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 3: They're going to win this division and play in the

1184
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 3: Big Ten Championship. So I love Nebraska plus three eighty

1185
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 3: to win the West, something that you can easily hedge

1186
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 3: out towards the end of the season.

1187
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 2: And I'm going to build them what you said about Nebraska,

1188
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 2: and my favorite win total is Nebraska over seven and

1189
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 2: a half games. I have them favored in their first

1190
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 2: nine games, eight of them by double digits. Just win

1191
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 2: those games and you're over the wind total. Love the

1192
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 2: addition of Mark Whippo. Love what they did in the

1193
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 2: transfer portal. They did lose some production, some key positions,

1194
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 2: but I think they'll be able to replace them with

1195
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 2: some of the additions through the transfer portal. And like

1196
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 2: you mentioned, special teams has really cost this team, especially

1197
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 2: in close games, so those mistakes are amplified. Last year

1198
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 2: they went to nine and one possessions. Crazy. It's a

1199
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:04,240
Speaker 2: lot of regression coming and I think just by solving

1200
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,920
Speaker 2: the special teams issues, some of these close losses can

1201
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 2: turn into close wins, and I think they did that.

1202
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 2: They finally have a special teams coordinator. They went out

1203
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 2: in the transfer portal brought in a very reliable punter

1204
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 2: and kicker. I think their return units will be much

1205
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 2: better this year and that'll make a world of difference

1206
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 2: for a very talented team that is doing a lot

1207
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 2: of breaks this year. So I love it from a

1208
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 2: schedule perspective, and then for what they did in the offseason,

1209
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 2: give me Nebraska over seven and a half wins. From

1210
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 2: futures perspective. Look, I agree with a lot of the

1211
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 2: win totals and futures prices, but if there was one,

1212
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 2: I was going to bet just light the two hundred.

1213
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 2: If you find minus two, I don't know how to

1214
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 2: state to win the Big Ten. This is their conference

1215
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: this year. All right. That'll do it for us. Thanks

1216
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 2: to Mike i Andel for joining me to talk some

1217
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:51,400
Speaker 2: we are Penn State football. Thanks to all of you

1218
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:54,240
Speaker 2: for tuning in. We're going to be about to record

1219
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 2: the two big two sec episodes here shortly. We'll have

1220
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 2: special guests through Franklin from KSR and our old friend

1221
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 2: Birdie Miller from The Athletic to talk LSU can't wait

1222
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 2: for those two episodes, and obviously Colin's gonna give us

1223
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 2: all the insight on Arkansas, but leave a review, Subscribe, unsubscribed, subscribe,

1224
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:16,320
Speaker 2: tell friend, telling enemy, five star reviews. We're doing giveaways

1225
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 2: next week. It really helped us out. You can say

1226
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 2: whatever you want, make fun of Brett for pipping out

1227
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 2: sets and Bended for Heisman, make fun of me for

1228
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 2: whatever you want, just as long as you leave a

1229
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 2: five star review, and if you have already, just borrow

1230
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 2: someone's phone. But appreciate all the support. We got to

1231
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 2: go get cracking ahead of the SEC episodes, so we'll

1232
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,399
Speaker 2: see shortly. Cheers, peace out,