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Speaker 1: He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson on

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Speaker 1: your twenty four to seven home of the Black and

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Speaker 1: Gold SNR Steelers Nation Radio.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Drive.

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Speaker 3: I'm Dale LOLLI he is Matt Williamson, and well we

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Speaker 3: were talking there about the Steelers' expectations. So Matt, if

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Speaker 3: I told you, if I gave you these numbers in

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Speaker 3: the second half for Kenny Pickett, his eight games started,

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Speaker 3: he miss remember he missed the game against the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 3: a win down there where Mitch Trubisky actually played pretty well.

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Speaker 3: So after the bye week, Pickett had eight starts through

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Speaker 3: for fourteen and forty two yards, five touchdowns, one interception,

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Speaker 3: and a passer rating of eighty four.

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Speaker 2: Also ran for.

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Speaker 3: One hundred and thirty nine yards in a touchdown. He

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Speaker 3: was very efficient in the second half of.

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Speaker 1: The season, very efficient.

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Speaker 3: And oh, by the way, the Steelers went what's six

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Speaker 3: and two in those starts by Kenny Pickett?

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, exactly. So is there a question there?

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Speaker 3: I just said, you know, letting EVERR know, I just

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Speaker 3: letting every like I don't get no. Five times he

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Speaker 3: had one interception in the final eight games.

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Speaker 1: I know that's remarkable, and I'm searching for something right now.

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Speaker 1: But to even back that stuff up, like I think

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Speaker 1: we can all concede. His first eight games, he was

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Speaker 1: really unlucky with interception luck, you know, I mean, and

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Speaker 1: they were losing. And I'm not excusing him. He made

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Speaker 1: some bad throws. I mean, he made some bad decisions,

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Speaker 1: but he paid for them at a pretty remarkable rate.

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Speaker 1: Where we have mixed feelings about Pro football Focus, but

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite things they do is, you know,

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Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays. You know, when the ball leaves your hands,

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Speaker 1: you can't you know, it's not your fault. When they

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Speaker 1: get tipped or hits the receiver right in the hands,

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Speaker 1: go straight up in the air and somebody picks it off. Well,

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Speaker 1: he had only had that one turnover worthy play too.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't like, boy, he got really lucky. You should

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Speaker 1: have thrown five picks, but he only threw one, you know,

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Speaker 1: Like that's not the way that worked.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And so I just look at what Picket did

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Speaker 3: last year again, the fourth quarter comebacks, the game winning drives.

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Speaker 3: I look at what he did, and I think, Okay,

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Speaker 3: that has a chance to be pretty good. I also

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Speaker 3: look at Nause Harris's second half of the season final

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Speaker 3: nine games of the year after post by Nause, Harris

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Speaker 3: nine games, one hundred and sixty four carries, six hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy three yards, six touchdowns, seventeen catches with another touchdown.

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Speaker 3: He averaged in the second half of last year eighteen

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Speaker 3: carries for seventy five yards and also averaged two catches

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Speaker 3: per game for another thirteen yard, so basically averaged right

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Speaker 3: around ninety yards to ninety total yards per game.

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Speaker 2: That was just Naujie Harris.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't factor what Jalen Warren did in the second

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Speaker 3: half of the season as well. This is a team

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Speaker 3: that wants to run the folly. I think they found

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Speaker 3: the formula last year. Oh I do too, and they

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Speaker 3: found it. I mean, if you look at who they

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Speaker 3: played in the second half of that season, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina,

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Speaker 3: the Raiders, Baltimore, and Cleveland, that stretch is very comparable

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Speaker 3: to what this to who they are playing this year.

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Speaker 1: As By the way, the second half of the season's

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Speaker 1: schedule was earlier. There was easier than the first half schedule,

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Speaker 1: but it wasn't a cakewalk. I mean you still got

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Speaker 1: the Bengals and Ravens. I mean it was not a

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Speaker 1: ridiculous you know little sisters of the poor.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, everybody's pretending like, oh, they didn't play anybody down

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Speaker 3: the stretch. They play the Ravens twice, they played the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: The Saints were not an awful team, you know that.

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Speaker 3: So it's not like they didn't play anybody, you know,

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Speaker 3: they but this is that's who their schedule is this year.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's the teams are playing. I mean that's

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Speaker 1: basically what's on there, right.

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Speaker 3: I mean I look at that first half of the schedule. Cincinnati,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots, the Browns in Cleveland on a short week,

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Speaker 3: the Jets, the Bills, the Buccaneers, Miami at Philadelphia, Like

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Speaker 3: five of those are road games, and you played a

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Speaker 3: murderer's row of teams.

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Speaker 1: H No. The one thing I was looking for on

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Speaker 1: on Pickett too, and finally my computer was being slow,

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Speaker 1: is I looked up EPA for all quarterbacks from week

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Speaker 1: nine on. He was eleven. I mean he was right

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Speaker 1: behind to a right in front of Josh Allen, you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean he's in the Dak Prescott to uh Alan

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones neighborhood for the second and half of the season.

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Speaker 2: So if he does that right, right, he does that,

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Speaker 2: you're in great shape. Again.

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Speaker 3: I saw something about somebody talking about the Lions. They

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Speaker 3: were writing about the Lions as a team that's gonna

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Speaker 3: you know ride what it did. Yeah, they went in

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Speaker 3: their last eight games last year, they went six and

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Speaker 3: six and two the last nine games last year, the

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Speaker 3: Steelers went seven and two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it just so happens. I'm looking at it. Golf

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Speaker 1: was number one on that list. Actually, second half of

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Speaker 1: the season EPA, right, I mean he was on fire,

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Speaker 1: he played really well. I mean, the Lions could be good.

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Speaker 1: I'm not you know, I think they I think they

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Speaker 1: will be good.

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Speaker 2: I'm picked the win that division.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the conversation is let's kill the Lions.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers are better Lions. But to me, there are

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Speaker 1: some similarities in that if there were one more playoff spot,

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Speaker 1: there would have been the Lions and Steelers, you know,

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Speaker 1: like they were the just inmus teams last year. But

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Speaker 1: there's no similarities in that, and I like what both

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Speaker 1: teams are doing front office wise, is how they're building

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Speaker 1: their teams, you know, line of scrimmage stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: But everyone's buzzing about the Lions. No one's really buzzing

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Speaker 1: about the Steelers, and this stuff matters. The Steelers have

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Speaker 1: won a few more playoff games than the Lions in

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Speaker 1: the last fifty years. You know what I mean, Right,

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Speaker 1: one of these organizations wins and one doesn't.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know the other part of the equation with that.

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Speaker 3: In that final of those the two losses they had

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Speaker 3: in the final nine games, they lost by seven to Cincinnati.

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Speaker 3: They lost by two to Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if I.

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Speaker 3: When I look at that schedule, a three point loss

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Speaker 3: to the Patriots, a four point loss to the Jets,

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Speaker 3: a six point loss down in Miami where they were

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Speaker 3: throwing into the end zone twice in the final four minutes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with the rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they got blown out. You know, the Browns beat

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Speaker 3: them by ten up there in that short week.

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Speaker 2: The Bills blew.

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Speaker 3: Them out, the Eagles blew them out. But those two

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Speaker 3: teams did that to a lot of teams last.

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Speaker 1: Year in Buffalo, in Philly. Yeah, and they were they

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Speaker 1: were two of the best four teams in the league.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think there's a lot of argument

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Speaker 1: there with Kansas City and San Francisco. Maybe the Bengals

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Speaker 1: are in that conversation, but they're two top five teams

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Speaker 1: without what with a rookie quarterback, and they're better than you.

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Speaker 1: You know, and I'm a big point differential guy, but

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Speaker 1: those two games really killed that. You know, when you

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Speaker 1: look at things like that Miami game that was winnable,

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Speaker 1: the New England game that was winnable, and back to

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Speaker 1: the schedule slightly. If their AFC opponents last year kept

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Speaker 1: them out of the playoffs, their their conference record was

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Speaker 1: really rough on them. Yeah, because the Patriot game where

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Speaker 1: you made this point Friday, their conference games that aren't

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Speaker 1: in the AFC North are as sweet as could be.

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Speaker 1: You know, like I'd be shocked if the if if

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Speaker 1: a tie breaker comes down to conference you know record

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Speaker 1: that they don't get in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I just look at that.

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Speaker 3: That schedule means so much, and we knew going into

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Speaker 3: the schedule you know who they played, but when you

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Speaker 3: play them is so much. I mean, you know, the

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Speaker 3: lack of of the short road weeks and.

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Speaker 2: Things of that. Like again, I'll look at that.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So they played Cleveland on a Thursday night after

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Speaker 3: playing the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Right, that's a tough order, and that's a.

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Speaker 3: Tough order to go up to go to you know,

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Speaker 3: hop on the bus and drive to Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: It's really difficult to do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, still physically reeling from the week before and no

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Speaker 1: practices and right now you're the host of those two games.

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Speaker 2: It's a big difference, huge difference. And you're that you're

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Speaker 2: at home.

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Speaker 3: You know that that week before that, I think one

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Speaker 3: of those one of those Thursday night games that they

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Speaker 3: have that the team that they play, I can't remember

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Speaker 3: which one it is is on the road the week before.

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Speaker 1: It might be the Patriots.

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Speaker 3: I didn't think either was, but I oh, maybe I'm wrong, okay,

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Speaker 3: but either way, Yeah, it's just again, I think the expectation,

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Speaker 3: like there's a there's a feeling out there, Well.

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Speaker 2: You gotta again, you've got to be able to go

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Speaker 2: out and outscore the opponent or you gotta get to score.

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Speaker 2: You gotta score thirty points. No you don't, No, I'm

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Speaker 2: with you on that, like that, you have to score

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Speaker 2: one more point than your opponent that week.

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Speaker 3: Again, I look back, nobody in the NFL, not a

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Speaker 3: single team average thirty points per game last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think scoring will be up? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I know that's a real sidebar. It was so down.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if you'll get rebound a.

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Speaker 3: Little bit of Usually there's some kind of adjustment made

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Speaker 3: by the league, whether they go back to you know, hey,

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Speaker 3: let's not call holding again, or something like.

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Speaker 1: That some of the rest stuff.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but if that's the case, I think it benefits

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Speaker 3: to stee Deelers as much as it does anybody else.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we're not gonna call hold.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you know, yeah, your guys.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you've got guys that can win off

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Speaker 3: the edge, which they do, they're gonna win for whether

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Speaker 3: they're calling holding or not.

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Speaker 2: H like is as little as they called holding?

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Speaker 1: Was that two years ago in twenty Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The twenty twenty or twenty twenty one Steelers still led

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Speaker 3: the league of sacks that year, Steelers led the league

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Speaker 3: in sacks that year, watt led the league and individual sacks.

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Speaker 1: M hm. That was pre Chiefs like leads either.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that was the year they lost Bud Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: you're right, you know he was out, he was missed

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Speaker 3: half the season.

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Speaker 2: Well, high Smith right now is equal to what Bud

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Speaker 2: was better.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, right, I mean I think he's better.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so okay, you don't want to call hold, you

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Speaker 3: don't you want to make holding legal again?

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Speaker 2: Go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they still got guys that are going to get right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, pickingtle benefit and everybody will benefit, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean get your kind of equal for everybody. I

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Speaker 1: think it was a side note. I think that the

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Speaker 1: league will want scoring to go up. They also would

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Speaker 1: think so, yeah, sixty nine different quarterbacks starting games either,

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Speaker 1: well there's.

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Speaker 2: That too, There is certainly that.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean I just I look at you know,

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Speaker 3: the league as a whole, like so people were going

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Speaker 3: to look at the Steelers season as a whole from

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Speaker 3: last year as well. You know, they only average eighteen

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Speaker 3: points a game. You can't look at I firmly believe

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Speaker 3: you can't look at their season like that. I almost

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Speaker 3: looked like I look at it like they played two

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Speaker 3: different seasons last.

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Speaker 1: Year, and the Lions qualify as well. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: some other teams out there similar and you can look

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Speaker 1: at the other way too sometimes. You know, the Ravens

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Speaker 1: are a really good example. Off top of oh, absolutely, yeah,

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Speaker 1: second half of the season was miserable. First half of

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Speaker 1: the season was great, but if you can blame injuries,

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Speaker 1: that's a little different. Where the Steelers, it's like, well

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Speaker 1: they found them themselves. They got better. Yes, they played

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Speaker 1: easier teams, but I also think the Week thirteen team,

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Speaker 1: the Week thirteen Steelers beats the Week three Steelers by

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Speaker 1: fourteen points, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, not only that, but the Week thirteen Steelers beat

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Speaker 3: the Patriots at home, and the Jets and the Jets

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Speaker 3: and they win. They win at least one of those games. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: but that way, maybe you don't win them all, but

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Speaker 3: you win at least one of them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, everyone knows. I'm into some of the side

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Speaker 1: stats and metrics and whatnot. Like their time of possession

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Speaker 1: was so bad, you know, for the first month, six weeks,

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Speaker 1: maybe even the full half of the season, and then

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Speaker 1: they end up like almost leaving the league in time

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Speaker 1: of possession after starting in an unbelievably deep hooll you know,

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Speaker 1: Like do you know how much that helps Cam Hayward

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Speaker 1: and Najie Harris and James Daniels, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: Like those type of things, like they were always on

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Speaker 1: the field to start the year. Defense that's what.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking for. Were like, that's the carryover I'm looking.

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Speaker 1: For me too, right, Like that sustainable that travels.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because like so you know people are gonna look

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Speaker 3: at it. Well, the Steelers average eighteen point one points

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Speaker 3: per game last year. I can remember writing at mid

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Speaker 3: season looking like they were they were dead last. They

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Speaker 3: were averaging fourteen points a game. Yeah, you want to

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Speaker 3: talk about digging yourself a hole and then having to

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Speaker 3: dig out of it, you know, to increase.

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Speaker 2: Your scoring average by more than four points.

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Speaker 1: Over the course of a seventeen game season.

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Speaker 3: Over the course basically over over nine games, you had

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Speaker 3: to do some pretty good things.

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Speaker 1: That's like the time possession stuff. You know, when you're

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Speaker 1: at the bottom of the league and it's already week eighth, Well,

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Speaker 1: if you could get the league average, wow, that would

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Speaker 1: be amazing, let alone getting near the top. That means

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Speaker 1: you're holding the ball thirty eight to forty minutes a

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Speaker 1: game time and time again. You know, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: change those trends.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I look at that scoring over the

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Speaker 2: second half.

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Speaker 3: They had twenty against the Saints, thirty against the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: twenty four against Colts, nineteen against the Falcons fourteen. Again,

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Speaker 3: both games against the Ravens were lower scoring. That kind

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Speaker 3: of skewed everything. He scored fourteen or twenty four against

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, thirteen against the Raiders. But if you remember

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Speaker 3: that night, it was like zero degrees.

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Speaker 1: It was miserable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was brutal.

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Speaker 3: I go, Yeah, walking walking from my car to the

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Speaker 3: stadium was ature, let alone playing a football game. And

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Speaker 3: it sixteen against the Ravens and then twenty eight against

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Speaker 3: the Browns. You compare that to what they did in

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Speaker 3: the in the first half of the season, where.

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Speaker 2: They had they broked.

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Speaker 3: They had more than twenty points in the first half

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Speaker 3: of the season once, wow, in the opener against the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: and the Bengals had to turn the ball over five

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Speaker 3: or six times for that to happen five times.

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Speaker 1: Right right, Yeah, I do think the scoring, I was

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Speaker 1: going to figure it out, but I was just I

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Speaker 1: was going to figure out how many points per game

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Speaker 1: they averaged those nine games.

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Speaker 2: I think it was. I want to say it was

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Speaker 2: like twenty two.

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Speaker 1: I would say I remember a point or two over twenty.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's some that are under. And that was

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Speaker 1: also worse weather. You know. I mean I mentioned the

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Speaker 1: Vegas game in Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: That was also with Chris Boswell having the second having

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Speaker 3: the second worst season of his career.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you think about it, you could

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Speaker 1: easily add twelve more points for the season the kicker

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Speaker 1: or fifteen, which makes you go up one point per

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Speaker 1: game basically, you know, right, Yeah, And I have no

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Speaker 1: worries about pause, you know, no, I think he'll be

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Speaker 1: he'll be fine, He'll be back. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: But if you if you'd had a better start to

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Speaker 3: the season, that game against Buffalo was just a killer

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Speaker 3: where they scored three points. But if you have a

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Speaker 3: better start to the season, you know, again, everybody's gonna

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Speaker 3: look at you know, and I've already seen it. Well,

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Speaker 3: you know, the Steelers only averaged eighteen points a game

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Speaker 3: last year. Yeah, if you look at the season as

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Speaker 3: a whole, that's what they averaged. If you look at

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Speaker 3: the second half, I mean, if they have at the

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Speaker 3: twenty two points a game or so that they averaged,

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Speaker 3: put some almost that's like upper half of the league

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Speaker 3: right from last year scoring, right, I mean the Dolphins,

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Speaker 3: for all the offensive weapons that they have averaged twenty

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Speaker 3: three points a game.

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Speaker 2: The Chargers much better at TUA, but still, Yeah, the

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Speaker 2: Chargers had Herbert for most of the season twenty three

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Speaker 2: points a game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers twenty one

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Speaker 2: point eight points per game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the league at this point. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's some alarming stats of how low scoring

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Speaker 1: was this past year. And again I keep going back

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Speaker 1: to the young offense, like it would shock me if

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Speaker 1: they're not noticeably better, even if they have three season

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Speaker 1: ending injuries, you know what I mean, as long as

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Speaker 1: they're not to the three worst guys you could have

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Speaker 1: them to. But you could lose Jones, Friarmouth, and Harris

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Speaker 1: and still score more this year than last year, oh,

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Speaker 1: without a doubt. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, just looking at this, Matt, these are the

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Speaker 3: teams that scored twenty five or more points per game.

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Speaker 3: And again I remind you, nobody scored average thirty points

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Speaker 3: per game. The Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles, the Cowboys,

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Speaker 3: the Lions, the forty nine Ers and the Bengals. That's it,

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Speaker 3: twenty five points per game. That was twenty five or more. Now,

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Speaker 3: all those teams averaged twenty six or more. Yeah, but

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Speaker 3: nobody averaged more than twenty nine point two. The Vikings

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Speaker 3: averaged twenty four point nine.

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Speaker 2: They were just under that number.

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Speaker 1: So still what harps with What sticks in my head

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Speaker 1: from mister Rooney is score more points, score more points,

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Speaker 1: more points. There's a lot of ways to do it.

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Speaker 1: You know, they didn't just go We'll invest the bazillion

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Speaker 1: dollars in four receivers, set and throw bombs left and right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can do it on the ground and

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Speaker 1: physicality and stopping the opponent and creating turnovers. So I

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Speaker 1: don't think either of us are implying that's.

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Speaker 3: Just do what you Yeah, just do what you did,

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Speaker 3: and you know you'll score twenty five points a game

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Speaker 3: exactly exactly.

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Speaker 1: But it is trending the right direction in terms of

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Speaker 1: players getting better what we saw their last eight games,

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Speaker 1: you know. I mean there's a lot of proof on

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Speaker 1: tape let alone. The teams you're going to play. I

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Speaker 1: absolutely think Kenny oll and the red zone offense will

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Speaker 1: be noticeably better.

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Speaker 2: That's what I was just going to bring up.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and Boss, yeah, bos is going to be better.

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Speaker 2: He's not. They're not going to miss I think eleven

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Speaker 2: or twelve field goals.

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Speaker 1: Like they did.

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Speaker 3: Last year, they were at fifty one point nine to

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Speaker 3: two percent scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That was

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Speaker 3: twenty second in the league.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you get that up around to the mid

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Speaker 3: to the mean the you know, the mid levels, fifty

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Speaker 3: five percent. Basically, you get that up to fifty five percent,

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Speaker 3: let's say, let's let's scare scoring three or four more

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Speaker 3: touchdowns over the course of the season.

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Speaker 2: Very twenty eight points.

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Speaker 3: Now, all of a sudden, you are averaging more than

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Speaker 3: twenty points per game, and you probably win an extra

381
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Speaker 3: game or two that you didn't win last year.

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Speaker 1: And there was of course, as we've mentioned a couple times,

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Speaker 1: there's all right, well, what's third and eight on the

384
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Speaker 1: eighteen or fourth and eight on the eighteen. We'll kick

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Speaker 1: it boss, We'll get a three. That one didn't go ahead,

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Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, it's so scoring. I do believe will

387
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Speaker 1: be better. I mean, there's no question in my mind

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Speaker 1: about that. I don't think there'll be a top ten

389
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Speaker 1: scoring offense. But if they're fifteenth.

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Speaker 3: Ish, yeah, I mean, I mean, let's put this way. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,

391
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Speaker 3: nine ten. The tenth best scoring offense in the league

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Speaker 3: last year, where the Jaguars at twenty three point eight

393
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Speaker 3: points per game.

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Speaker 2: That's a little.

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Speaker 1: Bar of those top How many were playoff teams? I

396
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Speaker 1: bet it's eight or nine everybody but the Lions, and

397
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Speaker 1: they were right with the Steelers one off. You know,

398
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Speaker 1: if there were eight teams, they would have been number eight.

399
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Speaker 3: I mean, if you're talking fifth to fifteenth best offense

400
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Speaker 3: in the league at scoring wise last year was the Packers.

401
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Speaker 2: At twenty one point eight? Okay, I mean three points

402
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Speaker 2: per game?

403
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Speaker 1: Three points per game, right right.

404
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Speaker 3: Gets you, you know, over the course of the season

405
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Speaker 3: gets you into that. And again they pretty much averaged

406
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Speaker 3: that over the second half of the season.

407
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Speaker 1: No, no, they did. I Mean part of me's torn

408
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Speaker 1: a little on this conversation because I asked that question

409
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Speaker 1: about the playoff teams, because I still think the best

410
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Speaker 1: way to the playoffs was being a top ten offense.

411
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Speaker 1: I mean, I still think the league trends that way heavily.

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Speaker 1: Can this be a top ten offense? I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I mean it could be a top fifteen offense. Can

414
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Speaker 1: it be Chiefs, Bills Bengals level? Probably not this year.

415
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Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that doesn't mean they can't go

416
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Speaker 1: to the playoffs, you know, I mean, but can they

417
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Speaker 1: get there in two years? As a top eight offense

418
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Speaker 1: year after year after year for a year that I

419
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Speaker 1: absolutely believe, you know, I mean, you took you started

420
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Speaker 1: from nowhere and at the bye week you really didn't

421
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Speaker 1: get anywhere past that, and then you took a huge

422
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Speaker 1: step forward to top ten offense perennially year after year

423
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Speaker 1: in my opinion, from the bye week towards the end

424
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Speaker 1: of the season. Now, if you can just take a

425
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Speaker 1: normal size step forward, you're going to be in that neighborhood.

426
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're going to be in the range. Here's the

427
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Speaker 3: other side of the coin of that, Matt. So, the

428
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Speaker 3: top ten scoring defenses had the forty nine Ers at

429
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Speaker 3: sixteen point three, the Bills at seventeen point nine, the

430
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Speaker 3: Ravens at eighteen point five, the Jets at eighteen point six,

431
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Speaker 3: Dallas at twenty point one, the Bengals at twenty point one,

432
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Speaker 3: Washington in Philadelphia at twenty point two, the Saints at

433
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Speaker 3: twenty point three, and then you had the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: At twenty point four.

435
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Speaker 2: Okay, So if your defense is better this year, if

436
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 2: you can get that, if I if I'm giving up

437
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Speaker 2: nineteen points per game, but I'm scoring twenty two or

438
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: twenty three. I'm probably winning a bunch of more games

439
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 2: than I'm losing.

440
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 1: So thinking about the defense, I was in it on

441
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: that road too, Like, I think you look at two

442
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,439
Speaker 1: ways in terms of them we've been creating points. Like

443
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 1: do we think their pass rush will create more sacks

444
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 1: than it did last year? I leaned towards yes, because

445
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: of what and all those years leading up to last

446
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 1: year they were super high in that category. Are they

447
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: gonna recover more fumbles? Yes, They're not gonna be thirty set. Yeah,

448
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: but they probably won't need the leading receptions either, you know.

449
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: Yeah year with turnovers.

450
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: They ended up plus four for the season. They were

451
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: plus four with and they had twenty three total takeaways

452
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 3: thirty fumbles, yeah, twenty The Cowboys led the league with

453
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: thirty three takeaways, so they were ten off of that.

454
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 3: They were kind of league average there, and they were

455
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 3: league averaged despite leading the league in interceptions.

456
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: And being last in fumble recoveries.

457
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: Like last and fumble recoveries, I mean, that's so the

458
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: Cowboys had seventeen fumble.

459
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: Recoveries, Yeah, but yours had like one or two or something.

460
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: They had three three for the season, which the Jets

461
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 3: had for the Dolphins, the Rams and Titans had six.

462
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: If you if you double that to if you if

463
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 3: you get to seven or eight, which is more than

464
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 3: you know what you typically get, right, you're in much

465
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 3: better shape. You don't need to lead the league in interceptions.

466
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: It's nice to be able to do so.

467
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: Right, all right, and you probably won't again. I also

468
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 1: think I think that's creating turnovers. There's a randomness to it,

469
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: there's not a sustainability to it. But I do think

470
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: pass rush is the number one component. I think scheming

471
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: guys up is another component to it, but also more

472
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: so in terms of this fumbles versus interceptions conversation, I

473
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: think recovering fumbles is even more random than creating interceptions.

474
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: Well, I don't.

475
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 3: I don't think it was a cool like so Alex

476
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 3: high Smith led the league in forced fumbles last year.

477
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 1: Right right, right, but they just didn't happen to fall.

478
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: They just didn't happen to fall in the Steelers direction. TJ.

479
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 3: Watt has traditionally forced five or six fumbles a year himself.

480
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 3: So if you get ten forced fumbles out of your

481
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 3: two outside backers, and chances are you're going to recover

482
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 3: half of them. I mean, that's just the law of averages.

483
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were. That's kind of mares going with it,

484
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 1: Like I would feel more confident with the team leading

485
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: the league in interceptions the year before and lasting fumbles

486
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: then the other way around, Like, I'm really not putting

487
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: faith in Oh, this team's a seventy percent fumble recovery

488
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: team that'll keep up next year. You know, that's more

489
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: random than boy, they're going to create turnovers via interceptions.

490
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 1: They may not. They're not going to lead the league of interceptions,

491
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: but I doubt they're bottom five and fumbles. Roll a

492
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 1: thirty two sided dice and they'll who knows where you're big?

493
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 1: You know? Yeah, so you had.

494
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: The Cowboys had seventeen fumble recoveries. The Giants and Jaguars

495
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: both had thirteen.

496
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: Okay, that that led the league.

497
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: Why did the Giants overachieve? You know why? You know

498
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: why they get in the know.

499
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: They only had six interceptions as a team on defense, but.

500
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: They were the opposite which would scare me if I.

501
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: Were, which was tied for last in the league. The

502
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 3: Jets and Raiders had six each. Well, I wouldn't feel

503
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 3: good about that.

504
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,360
Speaker 1: No, right, right, right. They don't have great secondary play,

505
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: they don't have ballhawks, they don't Minka, they're on the

506
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: pass rush, you know.

507
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 2: So I just think that that's interesting.

508
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 3: I expect Kenny Pickett to take a step forward, or

509
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 3: I shouldn't even say a step forward, but to continue

510
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 3: down the path that he started down last year in yeah, yeah,

511
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 3: continuation of that. There's an expectation there that he's going

512
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 3: to be better.

513
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: And something you kind of opened to the conversation with

514
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: last segment was people aren't talking about the Steelers as

515
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: a sleeper and there's not a lot of time to

516
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: buzz I bet when Warren Sharp's album comes or preview

517
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 1: comes out, and the Football Sider Preview comes out, and

518
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: the people really start to look at the numbers of

519
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 1: some of the weird things that happened to the Steelers.

520
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 1: Next year, all of a sudden, you're not going to

521
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: be able to find their betting odds at eight and

522
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: a half games. It's going to be nine or you

523
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 1: know what I mean, like like people are going to

524
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: catch on that. Wow, this team was a lot better

525
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season than I remember you.

526
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 3: Know, and oh, they play a similar schedule to what

527
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 3: they played in second half of.

528
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: Last season, and they're not going to recover three fumbles

529
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: over the course of the year, you know, like they'll

530
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: get to eight probable. Yeah, right, Well he's going to

531
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: get back to his average.

532
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: Yeah everything.

533
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: I mean, when you have when you have a track

534
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 3: record like that or or you know, in the case

535
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 3: of the fumble stuff, that's what the norm is like.

536
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 3: Its just things return to the norm. They just do

537
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: they return to the mean. Hey, you can subscribe now.

538
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 2: To The Drive.

539
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 3: Every episode we do is available for you to download.

540
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 3: Subscribe today through the Steelers Mobile app, the iHeartRadio app,

541
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 3: or wherever you find your podcast. He is Matt Williams

542
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 3: and I am Dale Lowlly. You're listening to The Drive

543
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 3: here on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back with more

544
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:43,239
Speaker 3: right after this