Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Perrault. Find us on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Hadi and at Sports Talk Matt Matt Week seventeen.
Speaker 1: What's going on?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, for starters, I look like I just
Speaker 2: kind of woke up because I just did. So this
Speaker 2: is an early morning tape session here on the West
Speaker 2: Coast for me, So I do apologize. If you're like
Speaker 2: Matt Man, what happened to you? I'm on vacation, all right,
Speaker 2: I'm on vacation. Actually that's what happened to me. I'm
Speaker 2: a vacation. But you know, look last week, Week seventeen,
Speaker 2: Week sixteen into seventeen, it's hard. This is a really
Speaker 2: tough time. I know we went two and three, but
Speaker 2: I'm I'm proud of our first run. I mean, I
Speaker 2: know we came in the top two hundred, into the
Speaker 2: top two hundred of the DraftKings contest, not in the money,
Speaker 2: but I think I learned a lot about the DraftKings
Speaker 2: system for next year because it is a different system
Speaker 2: than than others. Given that two bye week situation, did
Speaker 2: you have to take ye? Were you happy with where
Speaker 2: we took our by weeks? Would you rather have taken
Speaker 2: them earlier? No?
Speaker 1: I think that they were good. I don't you know.
Speaker 1: I The one thing I think I would change is
Speaker 1: that I think we went in with a set mindset
Speaker 1: of what we were going to do with the bye weeks.
Speaker 1: This week. This year in particular, it was so tough
Speaker 1: because there were certain weeks that I think provided more
Speaker 1: value than others, which we didn't know about because of
Speaker 1: COVID concludits right where there'd be a line, they have
Speaker 1: to set. These lines, they get set on Wednesday, and
Speaker 1: then you might have you know, half the teams out
Speaker 1: they can find out on Saturday. So I was very
Speaker 1: happy with our first year in the contest. Again, you
Speaker 1: mentioned top two hundred, one hundred and seventy first out
Speaker 1: of about seven hundred teams.
Speaker 2: So really not eight hundred. It was like seven to sixty, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it might be eight a hundred number was right.
Speaker 1: The number was a little different, so it might be
Speaker 1: eight hundred, right, So that's top. You know, twenty five
Speaker 1: percent went thirty eight and thirty two fifty four point
Speaker 1: three percent, which is good percent of course. So we
Speaker 1: were four picks out of the money, so we make
Speaker 1: four different picks, and I feel like, you know, yeah,
Speaker 1: I was. I was very happy with our first showing.
Speaker 1: We we you know, didn't have a great final week,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, we lost on the Rams. You know,
Speaker 1: even though the final the final week was a little
Speaker 1: different too, because we were thinking a little bit strategically,
Speaker 1: Like we left in the Browns that we liked originally,
Speaker 1: even when all the receivers were out, which we realized
Speaker 1: figured probably most people wouldn't be on given the line
Speaker 1: and everything like that, but it was worth taking a
Speaker 1: shot on them that obviously didn't work out. Your Rams,
Speaker 1: Jared Goff Jared goffed and you know, broke his thumb,
Speaker 1: so you had that. The Titans, we were just we
Speaker 1: just missed on the Titans, like that was that was
Speaker 1: a pick I know you liked. We kind of missed
Speaker 1: on it.
Speaker 2: Just I miss on the Rams. I missed on the Titans.
Speaker 2: I mean I missed my two favorite picks of the
Speaker 2: week that I liked a lot, and some of the
Speaker 2: crazier ones you know that that were later in the week,
Speaker 2: you know, the people that was doing the other contests, with.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is this is year four for me
Speaker 2: doing contests, and you know, every year I learned something new.
Speaker 2: It's incredibly difficult. Next year, the DraftKings contest will have
Speaker 2: probably four times as many people as they're in it
Speaker 2: right now. We will probably have three thousand people in it.
Speaker 2: Four thousand people that are in it next year. And
Speaker 2: you know, the rules every contest, they'll tweak them and
Speaker 2: they'll turn them around. But you know, I think one
Speaker 2: of the more challenging things this year was the idea
Speaker 2: of who and when the game gets played and who's
Speaker 2: going to be in the game, and so this was
Speaker 2: as challenging. It's hard anyway people think, oh, static lines,
Speaker 2: it's easy. No, it's really hard, But not just that.
Speaker 2: It's really hard when you don't know for sure whether
Speaker 2: players are going to be in or out, and then
Speaker 2: the impact that that player being out is it significant
Speaker 2: or is it nothing? And trying to balance that is
Speaker 2: pretty hard. But I do like the fact that DraftKings
Speaker 2: has that late change addition. But one thing I think
Speaker 2: what you and I did, and what I did more
Speaker 2: than anything, is that I talked us off way too
Speaker 2: many picks. I take responsibility for a lot of that
Speaker 2: because I think I think I talked us off of
Speaker 2: at least three guaranteed points during the week.
Speaker 1: I think what we should do, we should stick with
Speaker 1: it a little more, stick with our initial thoughts for
Speaker 1: sure if we can. I also think, like I don't know,
Speaker 1: maybe next year something that we do it. We should
Speaker 1: maybe we should each have like one one like guaranteed
Speaker 1: pick or something like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. Do we hold on to
Speaker 2: and that's hours yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah. And I also think we did this once with
Speaker 1: the Rams versus the Patriots, which again that was that
Speaker 1: was one that you pushed and you were like, no,
Speaker 1: this is my favorite bet of the week, and I
Speaker 1: did like it, I think, even though it was a
Speaker 1: parathosm with the five and a half, but that was
Speaker 1: a Thursday game. And the one thing that separates the
Speaker 1: DraftKings contest from these other contests is that again, you
Speaker 1: can make the Thursday pick but not lock in your
Speaker 1: other picks. You can you can mess around with all
Speaker 1: the picks. They don't lock until Sunday mornings, so you
Speaker 1: can make picks and then change them right before Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: And your other kinda is in the West Gate in
Speaker 1: the circa. You if you pick a Thursday game, you
Speaker 1: lock in all your picks at that point, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I went three and oh on Saturday in Week sixteen.
Speaker 1: Oh really yeah?
Speaker 2: Three? I got all three games, right, nobody, but nobody
Speaker 2: wanted to use it. Yeah, and I So I literally
Speaker 2: went to you and to my other two partners and
Speaker 2: I was like, here's what like on Saturday. And I
Speaker 2: liked all three games, and everybody was like, nah, man,
Speaker 2: I can't do it. I can't can't play Saturday. We
Speaker 2: just let's just stick to Sunday. I was like, but
Speaker 2: I like the forty nine ers. They're like, you like
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I was like, yeah, I like
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. Are like, no, I'm not playing
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. And then I was like, oh man,
Speaker 2: so it's just it's whatever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, are you still alive in any of them at all?
Speaker 2: West Skates? I am still alive. So I am. I
Speaker 2: cannot win the Westgate reboot, but I can come in
Speaker 2: the top ten to cash. Okay, So I need a
Speaker 2: four and one game. I mean, I basically am half
Speaker 2: a point out of the money. But everyone's gonna mean
Speaker 2: this is week seventeen. So this is always a real
Speaker 2: topsy turvy week. And this is where people who this
Speaker 2: is what I love about the West Gate in the
Speaker 2: Circle for that matter, people who have you know, one
Speaker 2: or two teams. Sometimes they have two teams in they
Speaker 2: will go and they'll bet once and then for their
Speaker 2: other team they'll bet the complete other side. Yeah in
Speaker 2: case in case they go oh and five, they go
Speaker 2: five and oh with their other team, and they potentially
Speaker 2: could get into the money that way. So you know
Speaker 2: where the standings are right now. I mean, look, if
Speaker 2: we go four and one in the West Gate, then
Speaker 2: I think we'll probably be in the money. But one
Speaker 2: of my friends is tied for thirtieth in the circa
Speaker 2: right now. Wow, and they're they're currently in Maui on vacation,
Speaker 2: and I'm like, you better not get vacation, brain, because
Speaker 2: you have a chance to get I mean quite a know,
Speaker 2: you're coming in the top ten in the circa and
Speaker 2: you're cashing a six figure check. So you know, I'm
Speaker 2: watching closely Sausage King of Omaha if you're curious to
Speaker 2: watch that, the Sausage Kings team Sausage King of Omaha.
Speaker 2: I think it's number three because he's got three, he's
Speaker 2: got one, two and three, but potentially they may get
Speaker 2: into the money.
Speaker 1: All right, So no more contest picks here for us,
Speaker 1: because again that all of the west Gate and the
Speaker 1: Circa are still going. They go through week seventeen. DraftKings
Speaker 1: ended on week sixteen, So we're just gonna basically get
Speaker 1: our five best against the spread bets on this pick.
Speaker 1: We're gonna you know, essentially contest it, but we're gonna
Speaker 1: use the consensus lines of our betting pros dot com.
Speaker 1: Again that takes the aggregate lines that are available and
Speaker 1: gives you a consensus of what is and like you
Speaker 1: can see, they're dropping, like the Steelers Browns line is dropping.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I can tell I've got the Westgate numbers,
Speaker 2: so like I can use where the betting Pros consensus
Speaker 2: lines are, I can use that up against the west
Speaker 2: Gate just to give you an idea of the differences
Speaker 2: as to where the contests are going to be versus
Speaker 2: where we are for right now with the lines.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, so let's get started then, Matt as usual,
Speaker 1: why don't you kick us off with your number one
Speaker 1: play of the week.
Speaker 2: Oh man, this is this week's stinks man, because you
Speaker 2: just don't really know what each team is going to do.
Speaker 2: Like there, you know we know that certain teams like
Speaker 2: the Bills, the Steelers, we already know that they're not
Speaker 2: going to be playing their starters, right, so like.
Speaker 1: Do we know that? Hold on, do we know that
Speaker 1: about the Bills?
Speaker 2: Pretty much? Yeah, I mean this morning saw McDermott, like,
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 1: Somebody made their decisions.
Speaker 2: Basically, Yeah, Matt Barkley is probably gonna play quite a bit.
Speaker 2: I think I think you might see the Bills play.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe they start the game with their starters
Speaker 2: and they pull everybody out.
Speaker 1: I think that's what they did last year. The one
Speaker 1: thing is, and again I don't know, Matt, and you
Speaker 1: might have a better sense of this, is how much
Speaker 1: they care. Like, for example, if the Bills win and
Speaker 1: the Steelers lose, then the Bills are going to get
Speaker 1: the second seed. Correct, I don't know how much that
Speaker 1: matters to them. You avoid the Chiefs, right, You avoid
Speaker 1: the Chiefs until the final round essentially for that, But
Speaker 1: I guess you would anyway. I guess it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: Just really be the home game that's sort of coming
Speaker 1: out there. So I don't know. I don't know whether
Speaker 1: or not that matters to a team at this point
Speaker 1: or whether it's legitimately well where second or third doesn't.
Speaker 1: We don't really care. So we're going to completely rest.
Speaker 1: But there is something on the line, at least for
Speaker 1: the Bills. But go ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's difficult because I think if they fine,
Speaker 2: teams that have to win have to play. So one
Speaker 2: thing that I've been looking at, I'm looking at the
Speaker 2: early games for the game I'm gonna bet and the
Speaker 2: games I'm gonna pick, because I don't like that later
Speaker 2: in the day, if you already know your fate, then
Speaker 2: it gets I don't.
Speaker 1: I didn't they set it up so that you don't.
Speaker 1: Didn't they set it up so that any game that
Speaker 1: affects another game gets played at the same time. I
Speaker 1: think that's what they did.
Speaker 2: It gets played early, right, So I think most of
Speaker 2: the games, like, Okay, so Bill's Dolphins is early, right,
Speaker 2: Steelers Browns is early, Cowboys, Giants is early other games,
Speaker 2: and then the and then the Packers and the Bears
Speaker 2: are late. Seahawks forty nine, Ers is late Chargers, Chiefs
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. And then you've got Saints Panthers, which is late,
Speaker 2: and then the night game is Washington and the Eagles.
Speaker 1: So both the Titans and the Colts play late right
Speaker 1: at the same time, given that they're both fighting it after.
Speaker 2: The correct correct Yes, so like those are those are
Speaker 2: games that do matter. It matters from home for home teams,
Speaker 2: right sure. So like I, I don't really have a
Speaker 2: number one at the moment, Okay, yeah, because I'm having
Speaker 2: a tough time with the week. But if I had
Speaker 2: to make a play right now, it would be on
Speaker 2: the Cowboys to beat the Giants, Okay. And I think
Speaker 2: the one and a half line in the Westgates Super
Speaker 2: Contest are two right now, the consensus lines two. There
Speaker 2: are the Fandals at two and a half, so there
Speaker 2: are some numbers are climbing. I think up to three points,
Speaker 2: I would take the Cowboys over the Giants. I just
Speaker 2: think that this offense for the for New York is
Speaker 2: really struggling mightily and Dallas is making a serious, serious run.
Speaker 2: I'd a buddy of mine h three weeks ago tell
Speaker 2: me the Cowboys are going to win that division, and
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, well that's probably not gonna happen.
Speaker 2: But I do think the Cowboys have a legitimate chance
Speaker 2: here to make because they can't make the playoffs? Right?
Speaker 2: Are they alive? Still? Well? Who Cowboys? Yeah?
Speaker 1: If the Cowboys win and Washington loses, Cowboys win, they okay, right.
Speaker 2: Good, that's it. So, so the Cowboys know they have
Speaker 2: to win this game out right, And I just I
Speaker 2: watched them play last week and I think they're coming.
Speaker 2: I think McCarthy's got something going. I think the offense
Speaker 2: is playing pretty well for Dallas. So if I had
Speaker 2: to bet right now, I would lay the one and
Speaker 2: a half two when the Cowboys at the Giants.
Speaker 1: My big worry about it is just that this has
Speaker 1: got to be the because everybody saw what the Cowboys
Speaker 1: look like, right, everybody saw that. They've seen how terrible
Speaker 1: the Giants are. Like the Cowboys just feel like such
Speaker 1: a public play they always are, Oh yeah, and the
Speaker 1: exact time that they let you down though, right, like
Speaker 1: this is the historical sort of like here come the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Here they come, and they're gonna let you down. And
Speaker 1: the Giants, meanwhile, I know they've lost, you know, several
Speaker 1: games in a row here, but Daniel Jones has not
Speaker 1: been close to one hundred percent. They've played some good teams. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, coming in, I think the Giants might be
Speaker 1: a little better than people think at this point. And
Speaker 1: I I'm just it's funny because I looked at it
Speaker 1: and my initial reaction was like, oh God, the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are gonna are gonna win this game, Like they're gonna
Speaker 1: be fine. Bye. If you're giving me less than a
Speaker 1: field goal, I like it. My worry just is this.
Speaker 1: You know. It feels like the line is saying we
Speaker 1: know everybody is going to take the Cowboys and we
Speaker 1: don't care. And I agree with whether or not you
Speaker 1: think about that.
Speaker 2: No, I absolutely, of course I do. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: I I completely trapped. Lines are out there, but in
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. I mean. The one thing about Vegas is
Speaker 2: I learned this in my second week of being here
Speaker 2: in Las Vegas, where I was talking to a friend
Speaker 2: of mine who who is working at the time for
Speaker 2: Sez Sportsbooks, and you know, he Matt Holt his name.
Speaker 2: He's gone on to do a lot of really cool things,
Speaker 2: but he's the one that first told me about the
Speaker 2: Cowboys in the in Vegas and I was like, what
Speaker 2: do you mean? He's like every time we put a
Speaker 2: Cowboys lineup, we always add a point. Always doesn't matter
Speaker 2: of dogs are favorite, we always add a point because
Speaker 2: the Cowboys are the most public bet team in Vegas.
Speaker 2: So for that, I mean, and it happens all over
Speaker 2: the place, happens off sure, same place. I mean, Cowboy
Speaker 2: fans are everywhere that I do. I understand that point,
Speaker 2: you know, I think it's it's a valid point that, Okay,
Speaker 2: this line really could be like MINS one or a
Speaker 2: pick right, so that it's okay, flip a coin. But
Speaker 2: I still think the Cowboys are the better football team,
Speaker 2: and I still think there's some problems for that offense,
Speaker 2: for the cut for the for the Giants, I just
Speaker 2: don't think that they can score.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's let's put it on the maybe list,
Speaker 1: because I mean, I don't hate it. It just feels like, again,
Speaker 1: this is a bad week. This is just a very
Speaker 1: difficult week to sort of navigate because a lot of
Speaker 1: it is going to depend on, you know, who plays.
Speaker 1: I also think there's a tendency by the way of
Speaker 1: better is to think that if a team is out
Speaker 1: of it, one team's playing for something, one team isn't
Speaker 1: playing for something. That the team that's not playing for
Speaker 1: something is just going to roll over and everything that.
Speaker 1: I don't think that that's really how it works. I mean, right,
Speaker 1: you know, it's even even the Steelers, who I kind
Speaker 1: of like, we'll we'll get to that in a little bit.
Speaker 1: Not love. But and the line is dropping unfortunately.
Speaker 2: But this is the one week where I actually not
Speaker 2: I don't believe in parlaying. Okay, I've heard the Daily Juice,
Speaker 2: you know, I don't believe parloy this, but this is
Speaker 2: one of the weeks where money line parlays. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: don't actually mind them. Yeah, and you can take you know, Okay,
Speaker 2: do they just have to win? Like not, don't worry
Speaker 2: about the number, but do they just have to win
Speaker 2: a football game to get into the postseason? If you
Speaker 2: can line up two, three, four of those in a row,
Speaker 2: you can find you can bring down Like you know,
Speaker 2: the Vikings are minus two ninety five on the money
Speaker 2: line against the Lions. Right, and so Matthew Stafford maybe
Speaker 2: when he plays, doesn't play, if he could be his
Speaker 2: last game with the Lions and they may be totally
Speaker 2: you know, everyone knows the Lions or cleaning house and
Speaker 2: changing everything next year. So it's like, you know, those
Speaker 2: are the teams that you can be like, Okay, they're
Speaker 2: gonna lay down and get destroyed. Texans, maybe another one.
Speaker 2: You don't worry about the number. You just kind of
Speaker 2: stack up a bunch of those teams on money lines
Speaker 2: and then see, you know, a bunch of minus two
Speaker 2: fifty favorites and you could probably find yourself into like,
Speaker 2: you know, two to one, three to one type of
Speaker 2: wagers that I do tend to play a little bit
Speaker 2: more in week seventeen because it is so tricky with
Speaker 2: who gets pulled when right.
Speaker 1: So I mean, we might as well just talk about
Speaker 1: this game. It's not my favorite. I don't have a
Speaker 1: favorite really pick maybe I do, but it's not this one.
Speaker 1: But let's talk about it. Since you mentioned it, How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Vikings link six and a
Speaker 1: half the lines, because I know there's no Dalvin Cook,
Speaker 1: I get it, but I'm going to be shocked if
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford plays. At this point, Kenny Galley is already out.
Speaker 1: We have known who's going to be out. Chase Daniel.
Speaker 1: As bad as bad as this defense is for the Vikings,
Speaker 1: Chase Daniel just can't really do anything. I think Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins and the passing game is gonna have a huge
Speaker 1: day in this one in a bounce back effort. They
Speaker 1: were embarrassed. Of course, the whole team was embarrassed by
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara scoring six touchdowns last week. I just think
Speaker 1: that the Vikings are going to destroy the Lions with
Speaker 1: Chase Daniel back there, and if it's under a touchdown
Speaker 1: for me, it's one of the games I kind of like.
Speaker 1: And so I get this two teams not playing for anything,
Speaker 1: so you're sort of like, what are you going to see?
Speaker 1: But without Matthew Stafford as I'm expecting at this point,
Speaker 1: even if he plays, I think he gets knocked out
Speaker 1: early in the same way you saw with the Buck
Speaker 1: so sat him on the Vikings minus six and a half.
Speaker 2: Does Jefferson have any potentially.
Speaker 1: Over forty seven yards, I think is what he needs to.
Speaker 1: I believe set the rookie receiving record that's not a ton,
Speaker 1: so you could see him sort of have a fifty
Speaker 1: yard game. Same thing with Mike Evans. By the way,
Speaker 1: Mike Evans needs forty yards to get another one thousand
Speaker 1: yard season, which they were trying to do against the
Speaker 1: lie you saw that, they were like, definitely, just let's
Speaker 1: just get it so we can rest the guy. So
Speaker 1: you don't know whether or not when Jefferson gets the
Speaker 1: forty seven yards whether or not they'd be like whatever.
Speaker 1: But I don't think that's a team like the Vikings.
Speaker 1: That's not what they'll do.
Speaker 2: They'll I agree. I think one of the things to
Speaker 2: me the comments from Mike Zimmer about the defense after
Speaker 2: the loss when he was I mean, you never hear
Speaker 2: coaches say this is one of the worst defenses I've
Speaker 2: ever had, Like, I've never had a defense as bad.
Speaker 2: You don't normally hear a coach say that. What did
Speaker 2: you just say? So I wonder if going seven to
Speaker 2: nine actually me something to him. Oh and I wonder
Speaker 2: how much of a notice he put his defense on
Speaker 2: of Like, guys, here's your last chance to put some
Speaker 2: game film before I go through the whole entire roster
Speaker 2: and start cutting half of the guys here. Yeah, so
Speaker 2: like with Chase Daniel out there, plus that, I agree
Speaker 2: with you. I think the Viking's under a touchdown or
Speaker 2: a solid play.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So that's one of my plays this week, and
Speaker 1: you know it doesn't see I'm surprised a little bit.
Speaker 1: It's under a touchdown, and maybe if Stafford is ruled out,
Speaker 1: it'll pop to over it. So that's why I'm probably
Speaker 1: gonna bet it now, and I have bet it now
Speaker 1: at six and a half. But it is something where yeah,
Speaker 1: I think and the Vikings, they haven't quit. Their defense
Speaker 1: is terrible, it's injured, it's just a terrible defense. But
Speaker 1: I don't see them sort of you know, you see
Speaker 1: some teams, you watch them and you don't want to
Speaker 1: say quit, But it does look like they're kind of like, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm going through the motions. I'm not willing to really
Speaker 1: put my body online. Doesn't look like that. They're just
Speaker 1: not a very good defense, but they do have a
Speaker 1: good offense, even without Davin Cook, So I'm willing to
Speaker 1: roll with them at minus six and a half.
Speaker 2: Okay, my second play, and I again looking for spots
Speaker 2: here yep. Week seventeen. I think there is something to
Speaker 2: a thirteen and three record for the Buffalo Bills, and
Speaker 2: I think they actually want it, and I'm gonna be
Speaker 2: curious to see we talked about earlier. I'm curious to see.
Speaker 2: I think Matt Barkley can beat the Dolphins, and I
Speaker 2: think they can do it just running, throwing, and I
Speaker 2: gotta see how many before I would bet this. I
Speaker 2: gotta see how many receivers are playing. Okay, Colby's is hurt,
Speaker 2: so that's out.
Speaker 1: He's out. He's out, but he's out.
Speaker 2: Is Digs playing?
Speaker 1: I don't know the thing.
Speaker 2: If it's yes, okay, if Diggs is playing, and the
Speaker 2: answers yes, because you know, going thirteen and three is significant.
Speaker 2: And then I want to see what the Dolphins wind
Speaker 2: up doing with Tua.
Speaker 1: Okay, and oh you know what they're going to do
Speaker 1: with Tua. They're going to start him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but they may pull him if it looks like right.
Speaker 2: But if it looks like they're going to lose, do
Speaker 2: they put Fitzpatrick back in there? Or do they just
Speaker 2: leave two in there and just say, look, we're gonna
Speaker 2: be You know, Fitzpatrick may wind up playing the postseason.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what Brian Flores is doing. It
Speaker 2: is so insane what he's doing with the quarterback spot.
Speaker 2: How is this not Fitzpatrick's team? I'm saying it literally
Speaker 2: for weeks.
Speaker 1: You know what annoys me, Matt, And it's probably because
Speaker 1: I have a pretty large investment in Kevin Stefanskiez, coach
Speaker 1: of the Air, which may have died last week given
Speaker 1: the Jets game. But the fact that people are giving
Speaker 1: kudos to Flores for the way he's willing to pull
Speaker 1: Tua and go to Fitzpatrick, like that's a positive. You
Speaker 1: have to pull Tua because Tua does not play well
Speaker 1: and Ryan Fitzpatrick is your better option. So the fact
Speaker 1: that he's playing Tua to begin with, and I know
Speaker 1: you harped on this when it first happened to me,
Speaker 1: is mind boggling, because I think the team would be,
Speaker 1: you know, much better on offense if you just left
Speaker 1: fitz in there.
Speaker 2: I again, I says on Twitter, people got really mad
Speaker 2: at me. I'll say it here. I believe that ownership
Speaker 2: has told Brian Flores what to do. I think ownership
Speaker 2: has said, Tua tanga a Looa is our franchise face,
Speaker 2: and I need Tua to play as much as possible
Speaker 2: and then go all the way up to the point
Speaker 2: where you're gonna lose, and then it's the break in
Speaker 2: case of emergency, Okay, play Fitzpatrick. But then the second
Speaker 2: you have a chance to put to a back in there.
Speaker 2: You do it because this is funny that he was
Speaker 2: comparing it to a relief pitcher. This is like having
Speaker 2: like Randy Johnson out of the bullpen. Like you go
Speaker 2: and put Randy Johnson in the starting rotation, right, You
Speaker 2: don't have him in the bullpen. You use him as
Speaker 2: a starter because you need starters are more valuable. Like,
Speaker 2: it doesn't make any sense to me. That analogy is
Speaker 2: ridiculous and it's I cannot I've tried for the life
Speaker 2: of me to justify the decisions they're being made here
Speaker 2: with Miami, and if I'm a Dolphin fan, all I
Speaker 2: can hope is that when the postseason happens, like to
Speaker 2: if he struggles in the first quarter, or if they're
Speaker 2: down at halftime or whatever, that Brian Flores has the
Speaker 2: guts to go ahead and say we're playing Fitzpatrick because
Speaker 2: you're not winning a playoff game with Tua. I'm just
Speaker 2: call me a hater, but you're just you're not winning
Speaker 2: a playoff game with two at the quarterbacks, right.
Speaker 1: So I guess my issue is, I guess I don't
Speaker 1: know how to what to do with this game because
Speaker 1: I don't know who's playing. I don't know whether or
Speaker 1: not the Bills are motivated to win this game. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's the thirteen and three, but again, it could be
Speaker 1: the second seed because if you're if you're the third seed,
Speaker 1: I think you're probably getting I guess it depends on
Speaker 1: what happens with the Dolphins, but you you might be
Speaker 1: getting the Ravens. You know, they might be the sixth
Speaker 1: seed at this point, so maybe the number two seed.
Speaker 2: Does the fans start this week or next week?
Speaker 1: I think the fans start next week.
Speaker 2: The playoffs because if nine thousand fans are going to
Speaker 2: be there for their playoff games, right, so that's huge.
Speaker 2: That's huge for Bill's Mafia to be able to be
Speaker 2: in that building. That's good.
Speaker 1: I you know, I have a very soft spot for
Speaker 1: Bills fans and for Bill's Mafia because I went to
Speaker 1: school there. So I still have a lot of friends
Speaker 1: who are really investing in this. It's just it's hard
Speaker 1: for me to get a real And again, the fact
Speaker 1: that the Bills are favored in this game, I don't
Speaker 1: really know what to do with because I just if
Speaker 1: it's Matt Barkley and there's no Stefan Diggs and t
Speaker 1: Davious White, you know, doesn't play, Matt, I mean, do
Speaker 1: you still like the Bills?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that you still do, because I think the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: I think this is a game, just speaking generally, Okay,
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter all that much for the Dolphins, and
Speaker 2: it's gonna be cold.
Speaker 1: You're so it matters for the Dolphins, Matt. Well if
Speaker 1: they if they lose, they're probably not making the playoffs.
Speaker 1: You know that, right, because if they lose, the Ravens
Speaker 1: are gonna beat the Bengals.
Speaker 2: Right. Okay, you're walking around through how they miss the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Okay, Sure the Dolphins lose, Okay, they finish ten and six,
Speaker 1: okay with me, yep, the Ravens are ten and five.
Speaker 1: They're gonna beat the Bengals, right, eleven and five? Right,
Speaker 1: the Browns are playing a Steelers team that's resting all
Speaker 1: the starter.
Speaker 2: Correct, Brown's gonna win that game.
Speaker 1: Eleven and five. The Colts are playing the Jaguars. They're
Speaker 1: gonna beat the Jaguars. They're going to finish eleven and five.
Speaker 1: The Titans, right, yeah, are playing Detexans. If they win
Speaker 1: their eleven and five, they win the Division three playoff
Speaker 1: teams Seeds five, six, and seven, The wild card teams
Speaker 1: are the Ravens at eleven and five, the Browns at
Speaker 1: eleven and five, the Colts at eleven and five, the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: If they lose are ten and six, they're out of
Speaker 1: the playoffs. They have to win. Huh, they have to win.
Speaker 1: So does that affect the way they have to win?
Speaker 1: If they lose and any one of those teams.
Speaker 2: Loses, they're in. They're in. Okay, They're in. I knew
Speaker 2: there was something. I knew there was something like it
Speaker 2: looked like that they're.
Speaker 1: All playing at the same time, and all of the
Speaker 1: teams that they're going at our favored now the Browns
Speaker 1: because their COVID concerns are slightly less than double digits,
Speaker 1: but they're favored by nine over the backups for Steelers.
Speaker 1: I think the Steelers could pretty easily win that game still,
Speaker 1: even when Mason Rudolph. And again, that's probably gonna be
Speaker 1: one of the ones that I put out here, but
Speaker 1: I don't know what the spread is going to be
Speaker 1: by the time people listening right now, it's ten at
Speaker 1: It's dropping though, because this morning the more COVID concerns
Speaker 1: for the Browns.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, it's nine in the contest.
Speaker 1: Right, and it's nine now for the consentuves lines, and
Speaker 1: you can get it at ten. I like it. I
Speaker 1: think I still like it at nine. Remember that as
Speaker 1: bad as the Steelers were, I know we're switching jumping
Speaker 1: around a little bit here, but as bad as Steelers were,
Speaker 1: they still went eight to eight last year with Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 1: You know at the quarterback much time. You know they
Speaker 1: don't like the Browns that you know, there's certainly revenge factor, right, and.
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett's Miles Garrett's playing right.
Speaker 1: Yes, Miles Garrett's candn't play, so there's that. But the
Speaker 1: Browns need a win to get in against mostly backups.
Speaker 1: And the Browns are, you know, a solid team, they're
Speaker 1: they're well coached. If they have actual wide receivers, then
Speaker 1: they could do it.
Speaker 2: So so the Bills can knock out the Dolphins, I
Speaker 2: like it. So that's just okay. Now I like even more. Okay,
Speaker 2: if the Bills can knock out the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: They cannot get it. That's why it's really But the
Speaker 1: Steelers can knock out the Browns and it doesn't look
Speaker 1: like they're gonna go for it. It's very this is
Speaker 1: such a weird week, Matt.
Speaker 2: Oh, It's impossible. It's it literally is for to fourmentiononal chess,
Speaker 2: you have to be in the minds, you have to
Speaker 2: be inside of the minds of the coaches as to
Speaker 2: what they really care about. I just wonder. I mean,
Speaker 2: there is that factor of like everyone's saying, okay, who
Speaker 2: is the heir to the Patriots thrown? Which I don't
Speaker 2: think is gone by the way, but it's it's now
Speaker 2: okay here it's the Bill's division, and one's like, no,
Speaker 2: it's a Dolphins division. Well, okay, Now, it's kind of
Speaker 2: a way of flexing your muscle a little bit of
Speaker 2: a buffalo and keeping your rival out of the postseason
Speaker 2: if you beat them. So in this an area you
Speaker 2: just laid out. If you can knock the Dolphins out,
Speaker 2: I think there's some real motivation. I think Bills fans
Speaker 2: would be fired up to keep the dolphinsut of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I think it is sort of
Speaker 1: This is probably not something, but the two favorites for
Speaker 1: the Coach of the Year right now for the betting
Speaker 1: markets from what I've seen, are now Brian Flores and
Speaker 1: Sean mcdermoy. So if the Bills keep the Dolphins out
Speaker 1: of the playoffs, that certainly makes a difference, you know,
Speaker 1: and they could at least somewhat be thinking about that
Speaker 1: in terms of flexing your muscle.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just will Can we pause on that
Speaker 2: for one second? Yeah? How is Ron Rivera winning this award?
Speaker 1: He was up there, but they may not win the division.
Speaker 2: I don't care if they win the division or not.
Speaker 2: And Ron Rivera was getting cancer treatment at halftime, I understand,
Speaker 2: and his play and he had an Alex Smith quarterback
Speaker 2: with you know, coming back up the most horrific legg
Speaker 2: injury we've seen, Sinceneisman. I don't even know how is
Speaker 2: this even a conversation? Brian Flores has I got a
Speaker 2: great year, But I don't get how you don't vote
Speaker 2: when you're when it's pen to paper time. How are
Speaker 2: you not voting for Ron.
Speaker 1: Rivera because they're probably going to finish six and ten?
Speaker 2: Okay, you know, it's incredible. That's a great run for
Speaker 2: that team.
Speaker 1: I get it, I get it, But I mean to
Speaker 1: be like six and ten coach of the Year. I
Speaker 1: can't imagine what the lowest record for a Coach of
Speaker 1: the Year ever is. But I get it. He's up there,
Speaker 1: He's up there.
Speaker 2: I hate that. I hate it in college basketball too
Speaker 2: because it was, you know, same thing, like Belichick should
Speaker 2: have won that award like fifteen times, right point, saman
Speaker 2: should win that award every single exactly.
Speaker 1: Like it's funny. Yeah, we talked about it because I
Speaker 1: was in that sportsbook sort of contest about the most
Speaker 1: likely candidates, and you almost always need at least ten wins,
Speaker 1: and you almost always need to have a gain of
Speaker 1: at least three wins from one year to the next
Speaker 1: like that, that's the bottom line for it. So maybe
Speaker 1: Rivera and I'd have no problem with that.
Speaker 2: I thought, of course as well, should be right. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think the.
Speaker 1: Fancy is one of them. Yeah, but the loss of
Speaker 1: the Jets really hurt. If they make the playoffs, we'll see.
Speaker 1: But anyway, we're getting we're getting off topic here. Seventeen
Speaker 1: whatever we can do, whatever we want. Everybody listen, doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be amazing. Bill's one and a half to Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I'm fine with it. We'll put that in the baby
Speaker 1: category for sure. That that's fine to go in. But
Speaker 1: what do you think about the Steelers. I think the
Speaker 1: Steelers are going to keep this game, Cleo. I don't
Speaker 1: think Mike Tomlin is out there ever to say I'm not.
Speaker 1: I don't care.
Speaker 2: Oh no, I agree with that. Yeah, I mean Fanders
Speaker 2: down to eight and a half. I mean, yeah, there's
Speaker 2: stefrom steam coming in here on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: It's a lot of it is COVID though, Matt, this
Speaker 1: morning there's more COVID problems, like before you woke up,
Speaker 1: there's more COVID problems this morning already.
Speaker 2: So people are who's out anybody anybody know?
Speaker 1: No, I mean I think Harrison Bryant, you know, head end,
Speaker 1: but that that's not a big deal. The receivers are
Speaker 1: still penned to come back.
Speaker 2: But you know, it's just is this the third time
Speaker 2: the Browns have closed their facility?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Third time?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Like, come on, guys, what's going I mean, I know
Speaker 2: it's COVID, it's everywhere, it's horrible, but three times, yeah, Like,
Speaker 2: something's going on with the Browns that it's not great
Speaker 2: in terms of the where they're they're gods, you're behaving.
Speaker 1: But so this strikes me as a game that probably
Speaker 1: the Browns wind up winning. Although I don't hate the
Speaker 1: money line at the on the Steelers, but that if
Speaker 1: you're getting more than that, even more than a touchdown, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you're getting a ten, I love it. But
Speaker 1: if you're getting more in the touchdown, I think the
Speaker 1: Steelers are going to keep this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the nine will be that we be
Speaker 2: one of the consensus picks in the in the Westgate
Speaker 2: contest because it's plus nine and this is really large
Speaker 2: and right now is plus line Yeah it's not. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's ten at bet mgm uh, you know on the
Speaker 2: East Coast it's still nine. And then Fan Duels got
Speaker 2: an eight and a half. They're the market low currently
Speaker 2: and I'm guessing that the number is gonna come down
Speaker 2: even more. So It's like, if you like the Steelers,
Speaker 2: you got to take them early, get take them now
Speaker 2: to get the best number possible. But I mean, I
Speaker 2: think the Steelers should be I mean, they'll probably be
Speaker 2: included in in my two team teaser just because you
Speaker 2: get over fourteen and uh yeah, backdoor cover possibilities and
Speaker 2: there's just a lot of I mean guys in week seventeen,
Speaker 2: you know, you lose the big name guy but the
Speaker 2: fourth string and fifth string wide receiver on certain teams
Speaker 2: is good enough to be a second or a third
Speaker 2: on some other teams. So you put it on film,
Speaker 2: you know, you show, you're showing out, you're trying to
Speaker 2: prove yourself, you're trying to justify your job, and they'll
Speaker 2: play hard. And sometimes I would prefer a third string
Speaker 2: wide receiver over a you know, fifty percent first string guy.
Speaker 1: And don't forget when you're playing with these uh these
Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks and everything like that, they kind of have
Speaker 1: chemistry with the practice good point squad guys, right, these
Speaker 1: are the guys they know. These are the guys they
Speaker 1: work on the routes with, so good point they usually
Speaker 1: play a little bit better. So, yeah, it's a weird
Speaker 1: week though, as we Matt and I have harped on
Speaker 1: on this, it's a very weird week.
Speaker 2: It's times plus nine. I think it's a good pick.
Speaker 2: I think that that's a good side to be on
Speaker 2: in particular because I think, you know, if the Browns
Speaker 2: are gonna brown and they and they go ten and
Speaker 2: they lose the game outright, can go ten and six?
Speaker 1: Yeah, a ten and six Browns team where you lost
Speaker 1: to the Jets. To miss out on the playoffs is
Speaker 1: pretty brownsie. You know, that would be a pretty big year.
Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, so that's probably one of them.
Speaker 1: All Right, You got any others that you like?
Speaker 2: I mean there's only a couple that I again, I
Speaker 2: don't love the numbers like Titans Texans, Right, you mentioned
Speaker 2: it like seven and a half, Like yuck, Like keep
Speaker 2: me six and a half? Yes, Okay, now we're talking
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't know what to do
Speaker 2: with that, even though my inclination is they want to
Speaker 2: bounce back after being really embarrassed. And what's really frustrating
Speaker 2: about that entire game? I mean, have you ever seen
Speaker 2: a team want to get away from the weather faster
Speaker 2: than the Titans did?
Speaker 1: Oh no, that was weird, right, Like immediately you saw that,
Speaker 1: you're like, oh god.
Speaker 2: They didn't even call tight. They punted. Yeah, like I
Speaker 2: had a potential back door. I mean there were chances
Speaker 2: to get I mean, I've just never seen it. It
Speaker 2: was so weird to me to watch a team because
Speaker 2: I had the over in that game was to watch
Speaker 2: them down big with three timeouts, fourth down and like
Speaker 2: it was like six, like they're on like forty yard
Speaker 2: line and they punted. I was like, what are you?
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel ran off the field. He could not get
Speaker 2: into a warmer area faster. He wanted nothing to do
Speaker 2: with Green Bay. And that's really weird for a power
Speaker 2: run football team. That. I mean that to me concerns
Speaker 2: if the Titans are going to play the Bills or
Speaker 2: anybody any weather potential, I will fade the Titans if
Speaker 2: they're watching that performance that.
Speaker 1: Was It might really though it might have just been
Speaker 1: that they said. He was like, we can't stop green Bay.
Speaker 1: If they want to come down and score, they're going
Speaker 1: to be able to score. We have lost this game, Like,
Speaker 1: let's just move on, because the Colts had already lost
Speaker 1: the control their own destiny if they beat I mean
Speaker 1: teasing that. This strikes me as a game where you
Speaker 1: tease the Titans afinitely laying one and a half.
Speaker 2: Right, like or money line or just more money line at.
Speaker 1: Whatever you want to do, exactly like that. But that's
Speaker 1: what this strikes me to me. It's seven and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: because again the Tecans kept it close the last time
Speaker 1: they play. That's and kudos to the Texans and JJ
Speaker 1: Watts got that video that he's pumping everybody. You know,
Speaker 1: he's so mad at his defense. Scares me a little
Speaker 1: bit at that number.
Speaker 2: Of Texans number, that guy's career, by the way, we're
Speaker 2: gonna we're going to look back and to shake our
Speaker 2: head and be like JJ Watt was one of the
Speaker 2: all time great awful teams his whole career.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the doing you know, again,
Speaker 1: going back to the Ravens on another big number. It's
Speaker 1: big number. It's twelve and a half for the consensus.
Speaker 1: But I think the Ravens are going to come out here.
Speaker 1: I think they hate the Bengals by the way they
Speaker 1: destroyed the Bengals when it was Joe Burrow earlier in
Speaker 1: the year. I think they hate the Bengals. This is
Speaker 1: their chance for a playoff. You know, if they win,
Speaker 1: they're in. I think they're going to come out and
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be like, oh, the Bengals.
Speaker 1: You think the Bengals are playing well well, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, you know, I think they're gonna come out
Speaker 1: and I think they're going to It's a huge number,
Speaker 1: but I don't mind laying it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the biggest number on the board. Outside the
Speaker 2: cults and the Jags. So I mean it's it's it's a,
Speaker 2: it's a it's the biggest number where I guess the
Speaker 2: culture at culture at home, right, the culture at home
Speaker 2: against Jaggs fortunate. So yeah, so it's the biggest road,
Speaker 2: you know, you know, laying twelve and a half on
Speaker 2: the road is not often great to do that, but
Speaker 2: I do I concur I agree. I think you're going
Speaker 2: to see the Ravens. We talked about this three with
Speaker 2: three weeks ago when were sorry back in the Ravens. Yeah,
Speaker 2: this is them getting into form, right, this is them
Speaker 2: where this is almost like an exhibition game in some
Speaker 2: ways where it's like we need to work on us
Speaker 2: and if that means we score fifty, we score fifty.
Speaker 1: Okay, we need to work on both sides of the wall.
Speaker 1: By the way, so f.
Speaker 2: You starters are in the game, you know, if we
Speaker 2: if we need to punch in a late touchdown to
Speaker 2: work on a goal line situation, like we're going to
Speaker 2: do what we have to do to win, and that's
Speaker 2: just it. So like, yeah, yeah, I'm with it, La.
Speaker 2: I like that.
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a game I don't
Speaker 1: love laying huge numbers like this, especially not on the road.
Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. But I do think that this is gonna
Speaker 1: be a game where they are just gonna come out
Speaker 1: and they are just going to be this is we're
Speaker 1: gonna you don't want to play us in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and we're going to use this game to basically tighten
Speaker 1: up the screws. Just Lamar Jackson. I think he by
Speaker 1: the way, not that this matters because I want to
Speaker 1: get into the playoffs, but I think he needs something
Speaker 1: like eighty seven yards rushing to get to a thousand
Speaker 1: for the season. So my guess is that you'll see
Speaker 1: a lot of him getting out there. They're just gonna
Speaker 1: I think this is just gonna be a monster performance.
Speaker 2: Son.
Speaker 1: I'm okay with the big number. Anything else that you're
Speaker 1: looking at, whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm wearing so every week on the live stream,
Speaker 2: I wear different hats that I have for teams that
Speaker 2: I look to because either they're playing a game that
Speaker 2: I bet on heavily or playing a team that I hate.
Speaker 2: So I'm wearing a Packer's set. You can't see mer enough.
Speaker 2: I'm wearing a Packer set right now.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: So I'm all in green and a green T shirt
Speaker 2: and wearing a Packer. I hate the Bears because I
Speaker 2: think I'm ohing four this year on the Bears, and
Speaker 2: I have a small number here, and I got all
Speaker 2: these people telling me the Bears are going to win
Speaker 2: this game, and I as long as they don't bench
Speaker 2: and Rogers is playing right, Oh, they they still have
Speaker 2: to win, right to get the one seed.
Speaker 1: Well, they don't have to win to get the one seed.
Speaker 1: And this is if you listen to me on the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Bros. End of year recap sort of thing. I
Speaker 1: didn't get this because I knew that they had beaten
Speaker 1: the Saints in terms of a head dead match, but
Speaker 1: because the Seahawks won. Technically, if both I believe, if
Speaker 1: both the Saints and the Seahawks win and the Packers lose,
Speaker 1: then the Seahawks would tech would get the number one seeds.
Speaker 1: So technically they need the Packers still.
Speaker 2: Need to win, and it's the Bears, yes, and.
Speaker 1: They want to right, and they want to beat the Bears.
Speaker 2: They want to beat the Bears. Rogers isn't talking about
Speaker 2: how he's in love with like Soldier Field and playing
Speaker 2: there and he likes playing in the environment. He firs
Speaker 2: it with fans and what this whole idea that Matt
Speaker 2: Nagy and Mitchell Trubitski are going to be back next
Speaker 2: year for the Bears. Oh, I mean, uh uh.
Speaker 1: This is it's a it's a paraltism.
Speaker 2: That's five and a half. I would lay it up
Speaker 2: to ten. I think the Packers are going to destroy
Speaker 2: the Bears here, and it's it's not my number one
Speaker 2: pick because it's an emotion pick.
Speaker 1: So I like it though. I like it. I think
Speaker 1: you're right. Yeah, I think you have it correct. I
Speaker 1: think that the Bears are playing over their head and
Speaker 1: they've had a really soft schedule here that people are
Speaker 1: getting excited about. And I think that the Packers, with
Speaker 1: the level that Aaron Rodgers is playing at at this moment,
Speaker 1: ye are they could easily win this game by fourteen
Speaker 1: points without thinking too much about it at this point.
Speaker 1: And you know, it's funny, Matt, because you saw what
Speaker 1: they did, and I think they're gonna do a similar
Speaker 1: thing right now. Is they're gonna set they sold out
Speaker 1: to stop Derrick Henry. Yeah, they know their rush defense
Speaker 1: is not good, so they said, Okay, this is what
Speaker 1: we're gonna do, especially in the cold weather, we are
Speaker 1: going to do whatever we can to stop Derrick Henry,
Speaker 1: and we're going to rely on you know, Jay or
Speaker 1: Alexander and our corners to just hold down as best
Speaker 1: they can to pass defense by themselves. I think that
Speaker 1: you're going to see a very similar strategy here, except
Speaker 1: it's against a worse past offense. You're going to see
Speaker 1: them say, okay, Dave Montgomery, you've been having a great run.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do whatever we can to stop you. We're
Speaker 1: gonna let Mitchell Drubisky, you know, try to throw it
Speaker 1: at Alan Robinson's great, but you know who else you
Speaker 1: want to throw to Mooney or you know, Anthony Miller
Speaker 1: or the tight ends. I think that's what you're gonna see.
Speaker 1: So I like it, man, I like it as ed
Speaker 1: minus five and a half. Let's see. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about the Bucks laying six and a half two Falcons?
Speaker 2: I looked at it. I mean, who's got more to
Speaker 2: play for in this game?
Speaker 1: Well, what do the Falcons have to play for?
Speaker 2: Well? The Falcons of jobs? Right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Fine? Is this Matt Ryan's last start with the Falcons?
Speaker 2: This is it is? Is he head a Disan Francis.
Speaker 2: I mean the rumors are him going to San fran
Speaker 2: You know, if Garoppolo gets cut, they move Garoppolo, and
Speaker 2: then we wind up seeing a Matt Ryan be moved,
Speaker 2: and then it's and then it's Garoppolo goes to New
Speaker 2: England and Ryan goes to San Francisco. And so is
Speaker 2: this you know, he's been their franchise quarterback. Does he
Speaker 2: want to go out one last hurrah and beat Tom
Speaker 2: Brady in the Buccaneers? I mean, you know at ten
Speaker 2: and five the Bucks can get what seed? What's the
Speaker 2: best they can be at eleven to five? Fifth and
Speaker 2: they lose, They're the seventh.
Speaker 1: No, So I this is my understanding, and that this
Speaker 1: is not.
Speaker 2: Just by the way you guys listening. This year is
Speaker 2: so freaky because of the extra game, the extra team
Speaker 2: getting in only one bye week. We've never seen these
Speaker 2: tie breakers before. It's very complicated.
Speaker 1: So here's the deal. The Saints have won the division, right,
Speaker 1: so we know that's done. So that means that the
Speaker 1: best the Bucks can do is fifth. Right, the four
Speaker 1: division winners are going to be the top four seeds.
Speaker 1: The best they can do is fifth. I believe they
Speaker 1: can fall to sixth if they lose and the Jared
Speaker 1: Goff and Cooper cup Less Rams beat the Cardinals. If
Speaker 1: that happens, the Rams would jump them and they would
Speaker 1: go to six. Now they're not going to know because
Speaker 1: they should be playing I believe at the same time.
Speaker 2: They played early in the Rams.
Speaker 1: Uh late, Yes, so they won't know by the time
Speaker 1: they they won't know because the Rams. So they have
Speaker 1: to assume that the Rams are gonna win. And again,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Kyler Murray at less than one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: You've still got that defense. So they can't take that
Speaker 1: for granted. And is there a difference between the fifth
Speaker 1: seed and the sixth seed in my opinion? Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: big time. The fifth seed is going to get the
Speaker 1: winner of the NFC East. That team, whoever it is,
Speaker 1: is definitely going to be weaker than whoever the sixth
Speaker 1: seed is going to play.
Speaker 2: I want my prediction to be I want my right
Speaker 2: or the Saints right. Yeah, I made a call a
Speaker 2: while ago, as you laid that out, I picked the
Speaker 2: Bucks to lose was in the first round of the
Speaker 2: playoffs to the winner of the n FC East.
Speaker 1: Really yeah, wait, you made like a specific bet.
Speaker 2: No, I know, but I don't mean a bet. I
Speaker 2: mean a prediction that I'm going to bet. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: bet for the Bucks to lose that game on the
Speaker 2: on the road, whoever they play, they're gonna lose. That.
Speaker 2: I said. The winner of the NFC East is gonna
Speaker 2: play the Bucks and they're gonna win. They're gonna win
Speaker 2: the game. They're gonna beat the Buccaneers because I think
Speaker 2: the Bucks are fools gold right now. To be quite asked,
Speaker 2: in the postseason, I think that blowout victory they had
Speaker 2: was the best thing. I was so happy to see
Speaker 2: that blowout because it's gonna give us a great number
Speaker 2: when they go on the road and it's gonna be
Speaker 2: like an eight or nine. You know, Bucks are gonna
Speaker 2: be six, seven, eight, nine, somewhere in that range whoever
Speaker 2: they play. And that's beautiful for me because I think
Speaker 2: this Tampa team's got problems and no one wants to
Speaker 2: talk about them. Oh not here though, not here. I
Speaker 2: think they beat the Facings easily.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that I think with them being motivated at
Speaker 1: this point, they've already come out and said we're playing everybody.
Speaker 1: So it's six and a half. You know the Falcons
Speaker 1: hang around for the most part in these games, but
Speaker 1: I'd be willing to take.
Speaker 2: Him at what did you say, Julio Jones playing.
Speaker 1: I'm almost positive he's not. He's trying. He has he
Speaker 1: hasn't practiced yet this week. He's trying to get back
Speaker 1: out there. It'd be crazy for him to actually get
Speaker 1: back out there. So assume he's not playing. And it's
Speaker 1: just Ridley Engage and Hayden.
Speaker 2: Hurst and they can't really run the football.
Speaker 1: They can't run the football at all, and not against
Speaker 1: the Bocks. Yeah, I mean, I think Carlton Davis maybe
Speaker 1: I'm not sure about Carlton Davis playing. So Ridley is
Speaker 1: going to be able to to probably do some stuff,
Speaker 1: and you know they they were able to move the ball,
Speaker 1: you know Bucks.
Speaker 2: I mean it's ugly, but I like it. Six and
Speaker 2: a half. I'm a right cool with it, all right.
Speaker 1: Any other games that you've been thinking about or you want.
Speaker 2: Me to, Yeah, I mean, look at the think we
Speaker 2: think we have to talk about and have to look
Speaker 2: at it. It is Washington and the Eagles, and boy
Speaker 2: Alex Smith is gonna play for Washington, right.
Speaker 1: We think so?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: We we think so all right.
Speaker 2: If Alex Smith plays for Washington, I think the Washington
Speaker 2: football team wins this game. If it's not, though, Man,
Speaker 2: this is tough because you have the Dwayne Haskins thing.
Speaker 2: He's now gone, and I mean I did. There's just
Speaker 2: not anyone that I really could back for Washington if
Speaker 2: it's not.
Speaker 1: Al Keller Hennegy might be better than Dwayne Haskins.
Speaker 2: Very possible.
Speaker 1: Yes, And Kara mclaurin's gonna play.
Speaker 2: It.
Speaker 1: Worries me a little bit about McLaurin because he really
Speaker 1: without him, you're talking about Cam Sims, you know, as
Speaker 1: your number one wide receiver there that I mean Thomas.
Speaker 2: Yeah, not good. But here's the problem for the Eagles,
Speaker 2: just like we saw last week. I I just I
Speaker 2: don't think that Eagles defense is all that good.
Speaker 1: That's terrible.
Speaker 2: And and so I think there's a chance no matter
Speaker 2: who's out there, I think there's a chance to move
Speaker 2: the football. And you know, Gibson bane back and whatnot.
Speaker 2: And then I mean not to say that that you know,
Speaker 2: the blooms off the rose there for jam Hurts, but
Speaker 2: I think his mobility gets limited big time up against
Speaker 2: that defense line. Yeah, And I don't think he can
Speaker 2: pick up the same yardage normally. I mean he needs
Speaker 2: to run the football to be effective. I mean he's
Speaker 2: you know, yes, his passing abilities are still lacking. He
Speaker 2: still needs more seasoning, more time. He's not you know,
Speaker 2: he doesn't have this great route tree and yeah, you
Speaker 2: know so, I don't think he's got enough in the
Speaker 2: tank there to go up against a Washington defense that's
Speaker 2: been playing pretty well. So I would like Washington to
Speaker 2: win this game outright in prime time they go seven
Speaker 2: and nine. So if Washington wins, it goes seven and nine.
Speaker 1: What happens? I'm sorry say it again.
Speaker 2: So Washington wins the game outright? Yep, they win the division? Yes,
Speaker 2: and they're in correct. Yeah. I like Washington there.
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't. I don't hate it. I I My
Speaker 1: only worry with it. My only worry with it is
Speaker 1: that this is the last game of the year for
Speaker 1: the Eagles. You're as much as Doug Peterson I think
Speaker 1: has done a pretty terrible job with Carson Wentz at least,
Speaker 1: you know, in the way they call the games everything
Speaker 1: like that. I think you're gonna see as many ricks
Speaker 1: as can be pulled. Sure in this game, but I
Speaker 1: agree with you that that defense is very strong. This
Speaker 1: is the last game, right, this is Sunday night game
Speaker 1: or whatever, so they that's why they did it that way,
Speaker 1: because no matter what else happens, Washington wins and they're in.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't. I don't hate it. I originally
Speaker 1: when I looked at it, I was like, I think
Speaker 1: the Eagles might, but yeah, I think, you know, at
Speaker 1: this point, I think that's probably right. I like Washington.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get it there, Okay, any other ones
Speaker 1: you want to talk about before I run through the
Speaker 1: remaining games.
Speaker 2: No, I mean, you know, I I am selfishly I
Speaker 2: need the Raiders to beat the back.
Speaker 1: I'm aware I was going to ask you about that.
Speaker 1: I know you need them for your feet. Yeah, because
Speaker 1: I was looking and you know, putting together the five
Speaker 1: hundred bets that you have made on the Daily Juice
Speaker 1: podcast so I can get your win.
Speaker 2: Loss and more than I'm seven hundred now, I think whatever.
Speaker 1: Right, I was looking at it, I was like, oh,
Speaker 1: here's one that's still outstanding that I can't technically count yet.
Speaker 2: For it's the last future. We went five and one
Speaker 2: going into them four one or five and one on the
Speaker 2: futures in the NFL. So we did quite well with
Speaker 2: our future bets, but this is the last one that's outstanding,
Speaker 2: and it's a push currently because I got seven right,
Speaker 2: so I got slight plus money. And if you remember
Speaker 2: back way back in July, when we didn't have sports
Speaker 2: to bet on all that much, it was I talked
Speaker 2: to a bookmaker in Vegas who at that point had
Speaker 2: not taken a single under bet on the Raiders under seven.
Speaker 2: Like literally every single bet was on the over. So
Speaker 2: there is a monster liability for the books here when
Speaker 2: it comes to this game, Like they are pulling so
Speaker 2: hard for the Broncos, then they don't like refunds. But
Speaker 2: seven and a half was a number that closed a
Speaker 2: lot of places around Vegas. It was seven and a half.
Speaker 2: I got it early in the summer, so it was seven,
Speaker 2: but it was seven and a half for a lot
Speaker 2: of places. So Raiders lose this game to the Broncos,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a nice windfall for different different books
Speaker 2: around around the strip. So I mean the Raiders, gosh,
Speaker 2: I mean they they have to be able to win
Speaker 2: this game. But it's it's a mile high. It's just
Speaker 2: it's such a tough place to go play and have
Speaker 2: to win, and it does doesn't mean anything like it
Speaker 2: only means it's a football game, so you want to
Speaker 2: win it, but there's no playoff implications. It's this is
Speaker 2: this is so hard. I mean, my gut says Raiders
Speaker 2: can win it, but I don't know. I mean that's yeah.
Speaker 2: My My problem is I need it, so I'm a
Speaker 2: little biased.
Speaker 1: Right, No, I'm I'm actually the exact I don't need it,
Speaker 1: but I'm in the exact same situation in terms of
Speaker 1: how I view it. This everything to me says like
Speaker 1: the Raid, the Raiders are a better team than the Broncos,
Speaker 1: Like I don't have much doubt about that. Yeah, it
Speaker 1: says to me like they should be able to win
Speaker 1: this game. But in Mile High always scares me no
Speaker 1: matter what, nothing really to play for. It just makes
Speaker 1: me just makes me too hesitant. But awesome, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be investing in the Raiders because I'm invested.
Speaker 2: In you in your future, so I very well might
Speaker 2: be in this and on this simply personally, just you know,
Speaker 2: as a money line. You know, if you do one
Speaker 2: of these money line parlays we made to have the
Speaker 2: Raiders be a part of it. It's a small line
Speaker 2: at two and a half, so it's not horrible if
Speaker 2: you want to just lay it and I think they're
Speaker 2: gonna win the game. But like, does Waller have any
Speaker 2: I gotta look at something. I wonder if Darren Waller
Speaker 2: has any incentives because I didn't.
Speaker 1: I didn't see it. I've been trying hard to uh
Speaker 1: keep track of that if I can. I didn't see
Speaker 1: anything there.
Speaker 2: But I mean he because if he's the key to
Speaker 2: their entire team. So like, if Waller has a reason
Speaker 2: to ball and go out and have a two hundred,
Speaker 2: I got.
Speaker 1: I got one ready. Yees, six six catches from the
Speaker 1: single season record.
Speaker 2: They're going to force feed that. Okay, that's happening. So
Speaker 2: Waller's a prop bet reception over there?
Speaker 1: We go, Yeah, by the way, right, let's have some
Speaker 1: fun on prop bets this way. Yeah, you probably got
Speaker 1: all this sort of stuff to get there. But yes,
Speaker 1: apparently six receptions. There's somebody on on Twitter. I'll give
Speaker 1: me a shout out, Anthony Amico or amiccot at A
Speaker 1: M I C S T A. He has been listing
Speaker 1: all the notework the milestones slash bonuses the players can
Speaker 1: reach in week seventeen.
Speaker 2: So what's the handle again at.
Speaker 1: Amic style, which is a M I. C. S T.
Speaker 1: A Anthony Miko or Amigo. He's a good follow on Twitter,
Speaker 1: but he's been keeping track.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that's well, yeah, that's big. That's a Waller.
Speaker 2: You know, probably five and a half receptions probably will
Speaker 2: be set at and maybe he might be six and
Speaker 2: a half, knowing the books are probably gonna be aware
Speaker 2: of that, so maybe six and a half, but I
Speaker 2: still would bet the over there they're going to force
Speaker 2: feed Waller and get to get him the receptions record.
Speaker 2: So that's one thing I would look at. And so
Speaker 2: you know, if he's running down the sidelines with forty
Speaker 2: fifty yard receptions because he could, then yeah, okay, the
Speaker 2: Raiders very well might be in there. And you know,
Speaker 2: Derek Carr has a lot of pride. He's trying to
Speaker 2: prove himself. He's trying to say, this is my team.
Speaker 2: And you know, we're going to the fact.
Speaker 1: That he played last week and played well. Yeah, given
Speaker 1: you know, the the growing, you know, strain that he
Speaker 1: had is pretty remarkable in and of itself.
Speaker 2: And I do think the team wants to doesn't want
Speaker 2: to end a year on back to back losses and losing.
Speaker 2: It would be they would have lost. I think there
Speaker 2: were seven and three at one point, so they go
Speaker 2: seven and nine. They have lost the last six games, right, right, So.
Speaker 1: I think that's right.
Speaker 2: I don't think they want to go out like that
Speaker 2: on that type of losing streak, and you know, being
Speaker 2: in a playoff contention to just falling flat on their
Speaker 2: face like that. So them and the Patriots are both
Speaker 2: are in the in this spot where I just wonder
Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch the Patriots game, but just I'm wondering
Speaker 2: if they've got this we can't go out like that.
Speaker 1: Attitude, So what do you. Let's talk about the Patriots
Speaker 1: real quick. So you just they're laying three to the
Speaker 1: Jets in New England.
Speaker 2: Just I could see the Patriots lose that game by twenty. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I could see this. I could see everyone's coming for this.
Speaker 2: You know that this is the lion that has a
Speaker 2: broken leg. Okay, everyone's coming for him. Everyone wants a piece,
Speaker 2: they all. I mean, this is the only thing that's
Speaker 2: interesting about this game that leads me to believe the
Speaker 2: Jets might not do that is that Adam gaze is
Speaker 2: rumored to be joining the Patriots' staff.
Speaker 1: Okay, but is that rumor really just based on Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick being like, Oh, I think Sam Darnold has gotten
Speaker 1: the best coaching that he possibly could have gotten. I mean,
Speaker 1: is that or is there actual rumors about them?
Speaker 2: There's actual rumors that he could be joining the Patriots
Speaker 2: as an offensive There's rumors that Josh McDaniels is going
Speaker 2: to go and take a head coaching job and that,
Speaker 2: and then the Patriots would hire Adam Gasee to be
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're available, Matt, why don't they hire you
Speaker 1: as the offensive coordinator instead of Adam Gates?
Speaker 2: You know, I don't, look, I'm not a football mind.
Speaker 2: I can't tell you that if the offense is being
Speaker 2: run properly and it's the quarterbacks problem, or it's a
Speaker 2: receiving problem, or I don't know. Gates is a horrific leader,
Speaker 2: He's a horrific head coach. He's been that way. And
Speaker 2: I made the joke that maybe maybe the Saban rehab
Speaker 2: tour is going to come to the NFL and all
Speaker 2: these former head coaches are going to go work for
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick to get the to rehab their image and
Speaker 2: then go on and do something else. I mean Steve,
Speaker 2: Steve Sarkesian for the Forbama. You know he was he's
Speaker 2: obvious an alcoholic still, but he had all problems off
Speaker 2: the field, and now he's like the hottest name in
Speaker 2: coaching right now to get go to the job because
Speaker 2: of what he's done with with with Mac Jones and Alabama.
Speaker 2: So maybe you can turn the tide if the Patriots
Speaker 2: get a quarterback, if it's Matthew Stafford who comes in,
Speaker 2: which I would be all in on. Uh, you know,
Speaker 2: you get Stafford, you get Adam Gase. I mean maybe
Speaker 2: you changed the topic and change the conversation. But I
Speaker 2: just I don't know, man, Yeah, I could see that.
Speaker 1: I'm not going near that. Yeah, I just bring back
Speaker 1: to the game. I'm not going near it. I think
Speaker 1: the Jets might win, but I can never underestimate how
Speaker 1: much Belichick hates the Jets, so I never really want
Speaker 1: to get there.
Speaker 2: Sinham starting, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't think it matters, man, Matt. I think Cam
Speaker 1: Newton's terrible, but I think Dared Sidham's pretty terrible.
Speaker 2: From what I would agree, I mean, he but I
Speaker 2: wonder what I want is I want the narrative to
Speaker 2: be over. If you gave Art's sid him an entire
Speaker 2: week to prepare, like this is your week, kid, right,
Speaker 2: and then he goes off against the Jets and he
Speaker 2: loses and looks bad. It ends the conversation about who
Speaker 2: Jared Stinham is going to be for the Patriots. It's
Speaker 2: no longer He's not the guy. I mean, it's just done.
Speaker 2: And I think you've seen throughout the course of the
Speaker 2: year why he's not playing and cam is it's because
Speaker 2: the team knows he's not very good and they learned
Speaker 2: that as they went as they were like, uh oh,
Speaker 2: he really can't like he thought he might, but he
Speaker 2: really can't. So they're going to bring in a bunch.
Speaker 2: And that's where I just think. I mean, put this way,
Speaker 2: the Patriots may have a chance to bring back both
Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo next year. Yeah, like that's possible.
Speaker 2: They could bring it. They could bring both quarterbacks back
Speaker 2: that they had, not that they will, but I think
Speaker 2: they could bring Garoppolo back if they if they have
Speaker 2: to have a chance to do it. If the forty
Speaker 2: Nunders do release him, so I just I would rather
Speaker 2: if it was Stinham, I might back the Patriots, but
Speaker 2: with Cam, I can't the Patriots. I just it's no
Speaker 2: and you have to run the football for the Patriots,
Speaker 2: and the Jets are decent and stop in the run.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the one thing the Jets do fairly well.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm not really going near that game. Just
Speaker 1: I think the Jets might win, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1: How about the what do you think about the Seahawks
Speaker 1: laying six to the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: Look, this is a game with the Niners that they
Speaker 2: play hard. I'd be concerned and I think the numbers
Speaker 2: too heavy. Personally, I think Seattle wins the game. But
Speaker 2: I think if I was a back aside on this,
Speaker 2: I would take the six points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would too. I like the under.
Speaker 1: I have it at forty six. You know, I go
Speaker 1: and you can get the picks on betting press because
Speaker 1: I think there's just gonna be one of those kind
Speaker 1: of close games. I kind of do like the Niners,
Speaker 1: but the Seahawks they do still have something to play for,
Speaker 1: of course, because they can win it. So I'm probably
Speaker 1: not going near it. But I agree that if there
Speaker 1: is a side, the forty nine ers. But the bet
Speaker 1: I like in this game if there is one, is
Speaker 1: the under on the forty six when I got it,
Speaker 1: because I do think that this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: game where both teams are gonna run and control the clock,
Speaker 1: and you know you've got all the offensive pieces out
Speaker 1: for the forty nine ers. But yeah, I agree, I would.
Speaker 2: Prefer the game not being in Arizona.
Speaker 1: Though, yes, it's an Arizona, right, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Would prefer not being there because that leads to more offense.
Speaker 2: If it was in sam fran I would be one
Speaker 2: hundred percent of the under.
Speaker 1: But it's a good point. Good point, very good point.
Speaker 1: How about the Chargers laying three and a half to
Speaker 1: the backup Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of that. That just
Speaker 2: feels like the Casey's punting on the game.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, so like completely punting.
Speaker 2: Can the Chargers win a game at Arrowhead and the
Speaker 2: weather outside? I mean, I mean, here's the question, how
Speaker 2: does Anthony wit Lynn manage to win this game by
Speaker 2: three points and not cover? That's my question? Right, He's
Speaker 2: not gonna come, you know, he's not covering Like Anthony
Speaker 2: Lyn's not going to do anyone a favor on the
Speaker 2: way out the door. He's not going to cover against
Speaker 2: Kansas City, right, So, like, how does he backdoor lose
Speaker 2: by if they win the win by three, they won't
Speaker 2: the hook there matters.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I don't want it. I just don't. This
Speaker 1: is a type of game where I'm like, I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: I'm not going anywhere. Second Cardinals laying three to the Rams.
Speaker 2: Look, something tells me that Rams are gonna win that game. Now,
Speaker 2: I'm not touching it, Okay, because I've been way off
Speaker 2: on this, But McVeigh has been talking about this backup
Speaker 2: quarterback like it's his son, like he likes this kid
Speaker 2: a lot, and and supposedly he says that ninety percent
Speaker 2: of the playbook is in for the Rams here, So no,
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's not gonna be one hundred percent, It's gonna
Speaker 2: be a you know, seventy five eighty percent. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I just think after the Rams away they've played recently,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put it past them. If the Rams win
Speaker 2: and go ten and six, are they they in?
Speaker 1: If the Rams win and go ten and six, they
Speaker 1: are in.
Speaker 2: Yes, so they got to win to get in correct.
Speaker 1: This is a game basically for the playoffs, so.
Speaker 2: It's a home dog with a win to get in scenario. Yes,
Speaker 2: how do we not take the Rams there?
Speaker 1: Because they have no running back and they have no quarterback.
Speaker 1: That that's the only way.
Speaker 2: Huh. So you need the defense to make a bunch
Speaker 2: of plays. Yeah, and they are fully healthy at defense. Yes,
Speaker 2: I'd buy the half a point, go three and a half.
Speaker 2: I'd lay it, would I would take the three and half,
Speaker 2: not late, Sorry, I take the three and a half. Sorry,
Speaker 2: I would. I would take Rams plus three and a
Speaker 2: half if it gets there. I know one book fandels
Speaker 2: at three and a half right now, but everybody else
Speaker 2: is at three points bets is three even money, So
Speaker 2: they don't want to get they don't want to get
Speaker 2: off of it. It looks like there's Chargers that there's
Speaker 2: Cardinals money coming in though, So let the public bet
Speaker 2: the Cardinals and take the Rams late.
Speaker 1: Okay, I like it. I like where your heads are. Actually,
Speaker 1: yeah it is. It's at three and a half right
Speaker 1: now on DraftKings.
Speaker 2: For the ramsay, so so that hook matters for me.
Speaker 2: It's two and a half in the Westgate Contest. I
Speaker 2: will not be playing that. I probably would take that.
Speaker 2: I may do. The Cardinals are two and a half.
Speaker 2: I think I think it's a big I think it's
Speaker 2: one of those games where it's going to be nip
Speaker 2: and tuck coming down. I would expect both quarterbacks to
Speaker 2: make mistakes. I think both defenses need to rise up.
Speaker 2: One thing that drove me nuts and I'm wondering is
Speaker 2: it a Jared Goff thing or a Sean McVay thing.
Speaker 2: But the amount of horizontal running that this team that
Speaker 2: the Rams do on offense drives me crazy. Now everything
Speaker 2: is a is a bubble screen or a jet sweep
Speaker 2: or a toss. I mean, they just don't go north
Speaker 2: and south enough. And it drives me crazy with with
Speaker 2: with Jared Goff the quarterback spot, So I wonder with
Speaker 2: the backup do they throw the ball more vertically? Can
Speaker 2: they throw the ball vertically more? Can they be more
Speaker 2: north and south against the Cardinals? I guess we'll find out.
Speaker 2: Is it the offense or is it golf?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I don't know. I you got if you talked
Speaker 1: me into taking the Rams plus three and a half,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be really mad at you because I'm just
Speaker 1: I'm not ready, not ready to do it. I have
Speaker 1: no idea what we just wait.
Speaker 2: I think public money is coming into the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: I think I know, of course it is.
Speaker 2: Of course, I think the line is gonna be higher.
Speaker 2: I think the lines.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm on draftings right now, I'm looking at it,
Speaker 1: and over the last hour it has moved to three
Speaker 1: and a half. That so you're you're right. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is man.
Speaker 2: To watch it. I mean you you might get four,
Speaker 2: you might get, but you might get more. I mean
Speaker 2: it's a it's a home dog in a must win situation.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just I don't really care. I mean again,
Speaker 2: if this backup kid can be at eighty five to
Speaker 2: ninety pero of the playbook, okay, I mean I don't
Speaker 2: I know. The running back situation is horrible. You got
Speaker 2: third string running backs back there. Who is Henderson? Who's running?
Speaker 1: No, Henderson's out, He's on ir It's gonna be Malcolm Brown,
Speaker 1: assuming that Cam Akers can't come back, which I'm assuming
Speaker 1: at the moment.
Speaker 2: So but if he does come back, does that change
Speaker 2: your opinion? Maybe?
Speaker 1: Maybe? I don't know. I don't know enough about Walford.
Speaker 1: You know, I just don't know enough about him, like
Speaker 1: they do, be really tough to back.
Speaker 2: Them at every RAMS person I follow says this kid
Speaker 2: can play.
Speaker 1: Okay, but I mean who knows.
Speaker 2: But everyone everyone covers the Rams says, if you think
Speaker 2: the offense is not gonna work because of the backup quarterback,
Speaker 2: you're wrong. Like all right, I mean, oh.
Speaker 1: Man, okay, all right, Well again, Darren Goff has you know,
Speaker 1: rarely impressed me anyway, So we'll maybe.
Speaker 2: Sir, teaser three and a half, four and a half
Speaker 2: get to ten RAM plus ten at home, right, all right,
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 1: Austin, already, I'm gonna give my teaser at the end
Speaker 1: of this because I do have a two team the
Speaker 1: patented paral two team teaser six on the year you're crushing, man,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I've just made mine as we were doing this,
Speaker 1: I was betting it on draftings as we were talking
Speaker 1: through this. Sometimes this helps my process. I have just
Speaker 1: bet it. I will give it at the end. Let's
Speaker 1: finish up the last two games that we haven't talked about.
Speaker 1: Colt slaying fourteen to the Jaguars in Indianapolis.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think this is a game they win, right,
Speaker 2: that don't cover?
Speaker 1: Right? I don't. I don't. I don't think that it's
Speaker 1: something where I could feel comfortable.
Speaker 2: It feels like a twenty to three type of game
Speaker 2: where yes, they just do enough to win, the Jags
Speaker 2: do nothing, and then it's just an ugly awful Week
Speaker 2: seventeen slop fest. Yes, and like, okay, maybe one bounce
Speaker 2: of the ball, the Jags lose it by twenty to
Speaker 2: tw ten and you lose your bet. So like, no way,
Speaker 2: you can never beat the Jaguars or the Colts in
Speaker 2: this game.
Speaker 1: I agree. And finally the Saints slank six and a
Speaker 1: half to the Panthers.
Speaker 2: So this is an interesting game for me because I
Speaker 2: want to tease. This is a game I want to
Speaker 2: tease down and take the Saints. Yep, just because the
Speaker 2: Saints have to win this game, right, like going But
Speaker 2: will they know they're They don't.
Speaker 1: They don't have to. I think the only way they
Speaker 1: get the number one seed is if they the Packers
Speaker 1: have to lose, right guaranteed, and they have to win
Speaker 1: and the Seahawks have to win. That's the only way
Speaker 1: they get it. So they lose the Seahawks have to
Speaker 1: win because if it's a head, this is my understanding.
Speaker 2: It's a three headed monster.
Speaker 1: Right now, I had to head with the with the Packers,
Speaker 1: they lose a three a three way tie.
Speaker 2: They win, okay because that third Yeah, okay, and that's right.
Speaker 2: I'm receive Krannaky doing that. Yeah, I would, just I mean,
Speaker 2: if I played this, tease, just tease down to a point,
Speaker 2: say it's gona win the game, that's all.
Speaker 1: I don't even like it. I don't like it. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Panthers are down. Every running back, not even Mike
Speaker 1: Davis is playing in this one. Right, I don't even know.
Speaker 1: But it's Steady Covers. I don't know who knows. I
Speaker 1: just i'd stay away from it, all right, Matt. So
Speaker 1: we'll have our five official picks. Here are the ones
Speaker 1: that are under consideration right now. Vikings lank six and
Speaker 1: a half to the Lions, yep. The Steelers getting nine
Speaker 1: from the Browns yep. The Ravens laying twelve and a
Speaker 1: half to the Bengals, the Packers laying five and a
Speaker 1: half to the Bears, the Bucks laying six and a
Speaker 1: half to the Falcons, Washington laying one and a half
Speaker 1: to the Eagles, Bills laying one and a half to
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, the Cowboys, I think it was right laying
Speaker 1: two and a half to the Giants, and maybe the
Speaker 1: Raiders laying two and a half to the Browns.
Speaker 2: Were way too many favorites.
Speaker 1: No, no, that's fine.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I like the Steelers, you know that, Okay, getting
Speaker 1: nine and a half? Yeah, you're okay with that? Yep, okay,
Speaker 1: very good. All right, what else do you like? You
Speaker 1: like the Packers, right, you're big on the Packers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like like I like the Packer Kers and
Speaker 2: the Vikings both to be go out to be home.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's get those, Okay, So there we go. So
Speaker 1: the other ones are I mean, I like the Ravens,
Speaker 1: but that's a big number, of course.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Washington basically just needs to win the game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like, I like Washington. There. I wish it
Speaker 2: was a dog though, man, that's I got.
Speaker 1: Well, we don't have any other dogs, man, Like that's it.
Speaker 1: It's it's it's the Steelers.
Speaker 2: I guess. I mean, there is some logic to laying
Speaker 2: favorites in Week seventeen, just because of the fact that
Speaker 2: there are teams who need to win and at this point,
Speaker 2: the books have all the algorithm data that they need
Speaker 2: right to come up with and tell you who is
Speaker 2: going to be you know, where the money is going
Speaker 2: to go and where people are going to get into. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but I've gone I've done more study into why lines
Speaker 2: are made where they are this year than I ever
Speaker 2: have before. And it is a fascinating year because in
Speaker 2: Las Vegas, in the month of November it was the
Speaker 2: most profitable month in the history of Vegas, and nine
Speaker 2: out of every ten bets made were one in the
Speaker 2: NFL by the books. Wow, okay, ninety percent wagers in
Speaker 2: the NFL were won by the books.
Speaker 1: Holy cow, that's insane.
Speaker 2: The public got annihilated this year in the NFL. Just
Speaker 2: week after week after week, they got killed. The only
Speaker 2: thing that really hurt the books was two team teasers,
Speaker 2: and a lot of people did very well, including myself
Speaker 2: on two team teasers. But other than that, I mean
Speaker 2: like literally everything else. So the lines this year have
Speaker 2: been super sharp, and they've dangled in from of the
Speaker 2: public without fans in the stands. I think that's when
Speaker 2: we look back on the NFL year, I think that's
Speaker 2: gonna be the most difficult thing for all of us
Speaker 2: to realize is that fans in the stands really did
Speaker 2: play a pretty big factor in how these games went
Speaker 2: and just straight up playing football without any real influence
Speaker 2: of an environment. The books took advantage of us, of
Speaker 2: everyone pros and Joe's I.
Speaker 1: Got one for you then? Are you ready?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Technically the consensus line is at three, but it hasn't
Speaker 1: as the DraftKings just moved. Why don't we just take
Speaker 1: the Rams getting three and a half against the Cardinals? Yes,
Speaker 1: love it, Okay, okay.
Speaker 2: It's two and a half for me in my contest,
Speaker 2: but let's take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So that'll be our official five plays,
Speaker 1: even though again we don't have a contest. Yes, but
Speaker 1: it's the Vikings laying six and a half the lines,
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting nine. It's nine or nine and a half,
Speaker 1: but we'll do it at nine to the Browns, the
Speaker 1: Packers length five and a half to the Bears, Washington
Speaker 1: Lane one and a half to the Eagles, and the
Speaker 1: Rams getting three and a half from the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Two dogs, three favorites, right, yeah, I like two dogs.
Speaker 1: Tore your favorites, yes, and one of the favorites is Washington,
Speaker 1: which is a point and a half.
Speaker 2: Yes, like it.
Speaker 1: You go with that. Go all right, and let me
Speaker 1: tell you the two team teasers that I bet while
Speaker 1: we were doing this as we were talking through it
Speaker 1: is h and again this is on DraftKings because I'm
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire sale place. Second bet the Steelers. I'm
Speaker 1: teasing them up from which is currently plus nine two
Speaker 1: plus fifteen like it, and the Titans. I'm teasing down
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to laying one and a half.
Speaker 2: Like.
Speaker 1: That's my two team teaser. It's at minus one twelve.
Speaker 1: By the way, didn't two team teasers Matt used to
Speaker 1: be at minus one forty last year. Well, but whenever.
Speaker 2: I are shopping, books are trying to attract different business. Interesting,
Speaker 2: So the Westgate in Vegas is miss one forty. Circa
Speaker 2: in Vegas is the low at mass one twenty five.
Speaker 2: That's why I bet all my two team teasers at
Speaker 2: Circa Sports. What is DraftKings offering it at?
Speaker 1: This? One is at minus one twelve. I had another
Speaker 1: one that I did. Yeah, last it's mostly been at
Speaker 1: minus one twenty for me. Yes, so minus one twelve
Speaker 1: I don't know, But.
Speaker 2: So Johnny Avello in Week seventeen is trying to entice
Speaker 2: people to bet teasers. Yeah, which is scary to.
Speaker 1: Me, to be honest, it is scary what I saw
Speaker 1: it was minus one twelve. I sort of had the moment.
Speaker 1: But I feel very, very confident that the Titans are
Speaker 1: going to beat the Texans. I don't feel confident about
Speaker 1: seven and a half whatsoever. Right one and a half
Speaker 1: close to a pick them. I feel confident that they're
Speaker 1: going to win that game by you know whatever, more
Speaker 1: than you know a point. So I have that, and
Speaker 1: I'm very big on the Steelers not getting come I
Speaker 1: mean over you know, fifteen points. I'm confident the Steelers
Speaker 1: are gonna be able to keep this game close. I'll
Speaker 1: take the extra six, so I feel I feel pretty
Speaker 1: pretty good about it. So that's my two team teaser.
Speaker 1: Matt will get you'll give your two team teaser. I
Speaker 1: assume on the daily juice like you always do.
Speaker 2: As always, we will have well, I may have two
Speaker 2: this week just because this is a we have no
Speaker 2: Thursday night football, we have no Monday night football, no
Speaker 2: Saturday football. We got sixteen games on Sunday. It is
Speaker 2: one of the best eating and lounging days of the year,
Speaker 2: so I may have a couple, I may have a
Speaker 2: bit more action than normal, so maybe two teams well,
Speaker 2: and the year with a couple of two team teasers excellent.
Speaker 1: And again don't forget Sunday morning, we're still doing the
Speaker 1: live stream and then for the first round the playoffs, Matt,
Speaker 1: We're good on that. We're gonna do a half hour
Speaker 1: live stream on Saturday before the games and then a
Speaker 1: half hour live stream on Sunday. That's at YouTube dot
Speaker 1: com slash Betting Pros, so you can get all your
Speaker 1: little great you know, last minute advice you can get
Speaker 1: from Matt. Don't forget to join again Discord, which is nuts, Matt.
Speaker 1: What is it twenty five hundred.
Speaker 2: Something like that. Yeah, I mean it's it's just during
Speaker 2: games there's about three hundred people, you know a night
Speaker 2: who are in there chat. Yeah, and I mean some
Speaker 2: really funny stuff comes up, something I don't even like.
Speaker 2: It's become its own little community. I mean, they're betting
Speaker 2: on Chinese basketball, so I mean, yeah, go figure.
Speaker 1: Yeah crazy, Okay. So also we are going to we're
Speaker 1: trying to cook up something special for you guys for
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. We're working on that. We'll be back
Speaker 1: with more on that, but in the meantime, enjoy the
Speaker 1: last NFL betting weekend of the regular season. There's gonna
Speaker 1: be a ton of great playoffs stuff, and Matt and
Speaker 1: I will talk to you here next week