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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I don't want to be complainant.

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Speaker 1: There are things the world should be worrying about, but

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Speaker 1: it's just not as bad a world. If some people

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Speaker 1: are saying for what most families care about, it's not

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Speaker 1: GDP growth or the size of the economy as a whole.

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Speaker 1: That's how they're doing. Real capital investment is gray below average.

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Speaker 1: Why because businesspeople are very uncertain in our future. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and

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Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael McKay and

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Speaker 1: Time keen worldwide for Global Wall Street in this hour,

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Speaker 1: must listen. Seth Masters joined us some Burnsty. We're thrilled

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Speaker 1: to drag him in here from his travels four Alliance.

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Speaker 1: Burnstey and Seth Masters will join us in a moment.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance brought you on this Monday Central Bank week,

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Speaker 1: Bank of Japan, the Feller Reserve and in the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England. There's nothing going on this week. Were brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Cone RESNEC Accounting Tax Advisory. To keep

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Speaker 1: your business on top of issues in the evolving renewable

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Speaker 1: energy market. It takes dedicated industry experts like Cone find

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Speaker 1: out more at Cone Resnick dot com. Michael, this is

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Speaker 1: gonna be wonderful. Seth Masters is with Bernstein. You know them,

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Speaker 1: Michael is the keepers of the black books. Years ago,

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Speaker 1: before PDFs, you would you didn't even matter what was

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Speaker 1: in the black book. You just walked around with a

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Speaker 1: black like forty page or sixty page book just so

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Speaker 1: could you could look cool reading Bernstein research. He synthesizes

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Speaker 1: all of that for Bernstein out of Princeton and Oxford

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Speaker 1: and with a terrific eclectic international experience. Seth Master joins

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Speaker 1: us the cruny are there's still black books at Bernstein? Yes,

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Speaker 1: there are, but as you said, most of them are

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Speaker 1: actually distributed electronically. Now do you remember that you call

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Speaker 1: up somebody quick get me a black book. I have

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Speaker 1: to look like I know what I'm talking about. You're

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Speaker 1: not gonna look cool anymore. Top will get any too. Girls?

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Speaker 1: You know, yeah, you could you get a black book

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Speaker 1: from bursting your your girl magnet. Tell me about single

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Speaker 1: digit world. This is something that's a huge focus. It

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Speaker 1: seems to me that all of our audiences are unprepared.

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Speaker 1: After oh nine in the Bull market for a single

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Speaker 1: digit world. Is it going to be a low single

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Speaker 1: digit world? I think it is for some time and um, awkwardly,

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Speaker 1: in many parts of the world, if you're investing in

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Speaker 1: sovereign bonds, it's a negative single digit So that that's

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Speaker 1: a very tip. That's a trying environment, especially because volatility

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Speaker 1: is apt to be elevated for some time as well,

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Speaker 1: and the combination of relatively lower turns with relatively high

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Speaker 1: volatility is going to be uncomfortable. There is an enormous

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Speaker 1: We have been through a couple of waves of enormous volatility,

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Speaker 1: and you're suggesting, Um, that's not over with. What's driving that?

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Speaker 1: If I want to look at what's going to you know,

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Speaker 1: to predict what's coming, what do I want to look at? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the fundamentals in the long run and

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Speaker 1: are always what matters, and in the short run it

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Speaker 1: tends to be sentiment. And the problem that we have

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Speaker 1: right now is that the fundamentals um are actually okay

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Speaker 1: and much of the world, actually in the United States

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Speaker 1: we have moderate growth, and much of the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world it's anemic, but still it's growing. Um that

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Speaker 1: I think the problem is that people are so uncertain

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Speaker 1: about what lies ahead over the horizon, and over the

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Speaker 1: horizon matters more than ever because remember, markets discount of

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Speaker 1: future when interest rates are very very low, you're effectively

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Speaker 1: discounting further out into the future at a time when

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Speaker 1: it's harder to see what's out there. What issues are

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Speaker 1: driving sentiment right now? What's the major concern for investors

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Speaker 1: that they're watching. Well, one problem is there isn't one

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Speaker 1: major concern. People are really worried about what's happening in

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Speaker 1: energy markets. I think they've overestimated how much that feeds

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Speaker 1: directly through to the rest of the economy, but they

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Speaker 1: believe it and it becomes self fulfilling. They're very worried

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Speaker 1: about its Central banks are doing exactly as Tom said,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of lack of clarity about exactly how

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Speaker 1: these policies will play out with this big divergence between

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Speaker 1: the u US, which is clearly trying to tighten, and

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world, which is trying to stimulate,

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Speaker 1: and nobody knows if either of those will working. But

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Speaker 1: then how do you synthesize single digit organic revenue grows

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Speaker 1: at the top line with somehow grossing it up to

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Speaker 1: decent margins down the income statement. To me, the only

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Speaker 1: answers this dreaded ugly word synergy where it's all of

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Speaker 1: star wars today it's almost a merger frenzy is the

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Speaker 1: only way to create alpha. I think it's very company specific.

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be one of the big

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Speaker 1: themes in the years ahead, which is the you know,

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Speaker 1: the last five or six years of this amazing stock

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Speaker 1: market boom um, it was enough to just basically buy

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Speaker 1: an index or any tf and but I think the

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Speaker 1: next five to seven years are going to be really

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Speaker 1: about being very selective and choosing the companies. Well, you

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Speaker 1: don't do companies. But is Jeff mmel on the right

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Speaker 1: track with a reindustrialization of General Electric. I think it's

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Speaker 1: really about the company by company, any choice of what

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Speaker 1: is your competitive advantage and also do you have the

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Speaker 1: right um balance sheet strategy and the right people to

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Speaker 1: make it happen. It's you know, there's not there's not

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Speaker 1: one ingredient that's going to be correct for everybody. Um.

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Speaker 1: There are also some sectors that are going to be

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Speaker 1: structurally much more challenged than others. Obviously, energy right now

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Speaker 1: is really in this array that's gonna take some time

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Speaker 1: to resolve. UM. You know you you want to look

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Speaker 1: for companies that are well positioned in industries that have

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Speaker 1: a bit of a tail and and uh, and we

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Speaker 1: think that there are lots of opportunities today because the

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Speaker 1: massive flows out of active and inter passive have UM

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Speaker 1: I think created more irrational pricing at the stock level

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Speaker 1: than we've seen in sometimes. Well, I want to ask

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Speaker 1: you that is how far off are valuations from reality

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Speaker 1: in this world? If you look in aggregate, I think

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Speaker 1: the market is reasonably priced. It's a little bit above

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Speaker 1: historic averages. But then again inflation is low and the

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Speaker 1: discount hit is low. So those two things more or

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Speaker 1: less offset. The problem, though, is risk is high and

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Speaker 1: you're not actually being paid enough we think to take

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Speaker 1: the additional risk that you have today in stocks. So

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Speaker 1: in our portfolios, which we manage with a dynamic tilt,

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Speaker 1: we actually are slightly underweighted in stocks. And here's the reasoning.

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Speaker 1: If you think about what a person with a balanced portfolio,

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Speaker 1: say about sixty stocks forty cent in bonds is really

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Speaker 1: trying to achieve, you can think of it as a

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Speaker 1: risk target. Because of sixty forty portfolio like that historically

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Speaker 1: has had a risk that averages something like an eight

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Speaker 1: to eleven of volatility per year. But in today's environment,

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Speaker 1: you're actually taking more risk than that range if you

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Speaker 1: sit at your normal sixty forty allocation. So we adjust

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Speaker 1: clients allocations to keep them in that risk range that

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Speaker 1: they originally signed up for, and that means we'd be

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Speaker 1: selling underweight stocks from that risk perspective, but within that

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Speaker 1: we'd be taking a fair amount of concentration exposure in

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Speaker 1: the stocks we think are most attractive. Because we do

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Speaker 1: think there are these it's really important you're gonna take

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Speaker 1: a concentration exposure. You and I remember Fidelity fifty just

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Speaker 1: one idea of fun. It was unheard of to be

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Speaker 1: that non diversified. But if you say you're gonna migrate

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Speaker 1: sixty down to a lesser stock, do you just assume

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Speaker 1: more bonds? How do you get there? Well, you have

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Speaker 1: a number of choices. Right now, we would slightly overweight bonds,

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Speaker 1: and also it depends on which you know we would

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Speaker 1: be overweight in certain parts of the world. Like example

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Speaker 1: is how the overweight Japanese stocks because we think they're

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Speaker 1: cheaper and more diversifying than other flavors of stocks, but

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Speaker 1: we would be slightly tilted into bonds, and and we

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Speaker 1: do think it's a time when it's worth having diversifying

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Speaker 1: assets as well. Is cash an asset? Um? Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: can think of cash as effectively a very very short

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Speaker 1: duration asset. The problem is right now, um, it's not

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Speaker 1: very attractive. After all, there is inflation which is running

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Speaker 1: at somewhere between one and a half and two percent,

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Speaker 1: and so you're guaranteed to lose purchasing power when you

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Speaker 1: hold cash. Is cash an asset in negative right countries?

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Speaker 1: It's a really great question. That's my existential question for

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Speaker 1: the months. The problem is how do you actually invest

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Speaker 1: in it, apart from just being like screwed mcdou and

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Speaker 1: having a swing pool full of gold coins or yeah,

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Speaker 1: so what do you do with cash in the meantime?

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Speaker 1: I mean you don't get paid for that either, right,

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Speaker 1: So we actually don't think it's a great idea to

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Speaker 1: have a huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines.

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Speaker 1: I think what you should do is have a long

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Speaker 1: term plan that acknowledges that returns will be lower, but

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Speaker 1: they still will be positive. We don't think that this

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Speaker 1: is a terrible environment. It's just anemic growth with many

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Speaker 1: companies being challenged, so that the issue is to have

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Speaker 1: a long term plan that takes that low industry and

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Speaker 1: and UH and rate of return on stocks into account,

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Speaker 1: but still gets you to the long term objective you're

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Speaker 1: looking for and then trying to implement it really smart

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Speaker 1: by not just being discriminated about buying in debt. I

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Speaker 1: was just a herd right now is US large multinationals

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Speaker 1: large caps? Can you go the other way and find

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Speaker 1: value in emerging markets of some flavor? Great question, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think there's actually a very good argument now for

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Speaker 1: trying to find some of the areas that were most

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Speaker 1: irrationally beat up during the period of UM. So you

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Speaker 1: go for true value what Brazilian commodities tax versus a

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Speaker 1: bank in the Philippines. Well, there's a real problem in

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Speaker 1: some sectors because people aren't always wrong when they think

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Speaker 1: that things are bad. So in Brazil there really are

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Speaker 1: some very deep structural problems UM and many of the

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Speaker 1: Brazilian commodity companies UM actually won't necessarily recover quickly. But

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Speaker 1: to to our way of looking at it, there are

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Speaker 1: lots of specific opportunities in UM. In emerging markets in

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Speaker 1: small cap um. We would therefore want to be fully

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Speaker 1: exposed there um it would be as a little bit

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Speaker 1: underweight in large cap us as you suggest, but we

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Speaker 1: still think there are some interesting stories there too. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is wonderful Seth Masters. Where this with Bernstein Alliance Burnstein.

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Speaker 1: We're thrilled to bring him to you this morning. This

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Speaker 1: is a great hour pulse sank and uh Seth Masters,

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Speaker 1: but very very cool. Coming up, we're gonna talk to

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Speaker 1: Seth Masters about the flat out failure of Arissa and

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Speaker 1: defined contribution plans. Easy true expert on this. I think

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a timely conversation. Is John Tucker among others,

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Speaker 1: looks at his two oh one K three thirty sixteen statement. Also,

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Speaker 1: we've got a real surprise with Seth Masters on your

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Speaker 1: children and while getting ready for next autumn back to school,

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Speaker 1: what should you do in a certain grievous part of

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Speaker 1: your children's education. So we'll do that with Seth Masters

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Speaker 1: of Bernstein. Futures of negative five, futures negative twenty four

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Speaker 1: yen weaker fractionally dollars stronger a little bit. I would

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Speaker 1: go to oil two days in a row, South thirty

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Speaker 1: seven forty nine in West Texas, Brent under forty thirty

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Speaker 1: nine apparel. That's check. Get with Michael bar I get

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Speaker 1: the latest world to end national headlines. Michael, my Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. The political fireworks might not be

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Speaker 1: limited the presidential nominating campaigns. President Barack Obama will likely

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Speaker 1: announced his Supreme Court pick as early as this week.

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Speaker 1: The Republican Party is planning an intense campaign to target

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Speaker 1: vulnerable Democrats and try to stop whomever President Obama picks.

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Speaker 1: Amtrak says a train bound for Chicago from Los Angeles

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Speaker 1: derailed in Kansas, just west of Dodge City overnight, sending

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Speaker 1: about twenty people to a hospital. Forecasters saying any additional

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Speaker 1: rain will make flooding worse in Louisiana and Mississippi. Flooding

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Speaker 1: that began last week has damaged more than five thousand

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Speaker 1: homes and at least four people have died. In Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: the National Guard has rescued about thirty three hundred people

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