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Speaker 1: f D. I what up. It's dramas you may know

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Speaker 1: me from the recap on l A t V. Now

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Speaker 1: I've got my own podcast, Life as a Gringo coming

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Speaker 1: to you every Tuesday and Thursday. We'll be talking real

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Speaker 1: and unapologetic about all things life, Latin culture, and everything

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Speaker 1: in between from someone who's never quite been in Listen

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Speaker 1: to Life as a Gringo on the I Heart Radio

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Speaker 1: wall of old school matches at the Carlos Cologne Arena

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Speaker 1: in San Juan, and we would watch American wrestling and

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Speaker 1: Luta wrestling pretty much every day, and she, as did

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Speaker 1: many back then, was fully convinced that wrestling was a reel.

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Speaker 1: Listen to the Michael douta podcast network available on the

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Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen

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Speaker 1: to podcasts. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. It's

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Speaker 1: me Jason McIntyre. Thank you for joining me on this

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Speaker 1: lovely Tuesday morning, September twenty nine. Best bet come through.

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Speaker 1: Let's get started with that. How about that Kansas City

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Speaker 1: Chiefs easily cover three and a half best bet now

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Speaker 1: and two. I mentioned it off the top because I

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Speaker 1: knew Rob g would like that, and also because there

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Speaker 1: is no best bet tonight. I'm gonna take the night

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Speaker 1: off gambling, maybe spend some time with my family, turn

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Speaker 1: off the television, and get off social media. As soon

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Speaker 1: as that darn debate starts. But we gotta start with sports,

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Speaker 1: and obviously we have to start here. Patrick Mahomes, all

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Speaker 1: I was told all weekend, basically for the first couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks of the NFL season, Well, the Ravens are

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Speaker 1: the best team in football. We know that fourteen and

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Speaker 1: two last year. They got the m v P the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: You know they're good, they got my homes, But I

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Speaker 1: don't know, they look shaky against the Charges. Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: moved the ball well. And it's like we forget how

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Speaker 1: greatness can easily be turned on and off when you've

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Speaker 1: got a guy like Mahomes and a coach like Reid.

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Speaker 1: They played the Chargers, a divisional foe who started a

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback who had nobody had any tape on, and

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Speaker 1: they just sprung them on him, and Justin Herbert moved

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Speaker 1: the ball well, and the Chargers were competitive and nearly

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Speaker 1: stole that game. But nobody who watched Chiefs thirty four

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Speaker 1: Ravens twenty can look me in the eye today and say, hey, man,

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Speaker 1: the Ravens are still the best team in football. They

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Speaker 1: just you know, they had an off night. That's just

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Speaker 1: not how it works. That's just not The Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: in a level above everyone else. The Chiefs are the

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Speaker 1: best team in football. The Ravens there are distant second.

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Speaker 1: There's certainly second, no doubt about it. I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can make a case for anybody else better than them.

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Speaker 1: But the Chiefs are by far, by far the better team.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe they were an underdog in that game.

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Speaker 1: And I mean, I don't know where you guys want

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Speaker 1: to start. The Kansas City Chiefs basically looked Marcus Peters,

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Speaker 1: their former cornerback, and Calais Campbell and Patrick Queen, and

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Speaker 1: you know, that was a good Ravens defense totally shut

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Speaker 1: down the Browns and the opener and look good. In

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Speaker 1: Week two and the Kansas City Chiefs went three for

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Speaker 1: three in the red zone, seven point one yards per play,

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Speaker 1: five hundred and seventeen total yards, ten for thirteen on

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Speaker 1: third down. This was I mean, this was clinical. They

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Speaker 1: went up at halftime and essentially, you know, the Ravens

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Speaker 1: they just like toyed around with them in the second half.

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Speaker 1: It was like, oh, you know, we got this game.

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Speaker 1: It's all locked up. And the second half, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs puttered around and they had to turn over

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Speaker 1: here and uh turnover on downs there, and it's just

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Speaker 1: like whatever, and the Ravens got kind of back in it,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, oh hey, guys, let's just

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Speaker 1: put them away there within a touchdown and they drove

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Speaker 1: down the field and there was no resistance from Baltimore

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Speaker 1: and they went up thirty. And that's a rap, Like

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Speaker 1: I don't know how anybody can disagree with this analogy

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Speaker 1: that and the NFL loves this. By the way, Patrick

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Speaker 1: Mahomes is the new Tom Brady. Lamar Jackson is the

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Speaker 1: new Peyton Manning. Now, obviously Lamar is a different style

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Speaker 1: than Peyton Manning. I mean, they couldn't be bigger polar opposites.

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Speaker 1: Peyton the quintessential pocket quarterback, Lamar the modern quarterback um.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at the head to head, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady eleven, Peyton Manning six. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: the early years, early two thousand's, Tom Brady won the

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Speaker 1: first six against Peyton. He had his number. Now, he

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Speaker 1: had Belichick on his side, obviously, the great Bill Belichick,

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Speaker 1: greatest coach in NFL history, and he always had a

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Speaker 1: better defense. Won the first six and there was at

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Speaker 1: the time, Oh, Peyton Mann, it can't get over the hop,

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Speaker 1: Kipp Brady. Two of them were playoff games and now

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes three, Lamar Jackson zero. And at this stage

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Speaker 1: in the game, I think you gotta ask some questions

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Speaker 1: about Lamar Jackson and playing from behind, because, folks, Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson passed for nine seven yards on Monday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: That's it. It was sacked four times, pass for ninety

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Speaker 1: seven yards in the problem. We saw this against the

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Speaker 1: Titans in the playoff lass. If you can get a

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Speaker 1: lead and put Lamar Jackson to play from behind, he

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Speaker 1: really has not at this stage in his career displayed

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Speaker 1: the ability to come from behind against a really good

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Speaker 1: team and win the game. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 1: an indictment of his passing game. I mean nine seven

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Speaker 1: yards is jeez um or that they like to set

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Speaker 1: up the pass with the run and you can't really

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Speaker 1: do that when you're in comeback mode. But think about

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Speaker 1: this for a second. Baltimore had a kickoff return for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown on the first half. Other than that, I

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Speaker 1: mean the Baltimore Ravens had nothing at home in a

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Speaker 1: big spot that they had circled on the calendar since

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Speaker 1: the schedule came out. I don't think the Chief circle

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Speaker 1: this game on the calendar. This was just another game.

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Speaker 1: But you're the Super Bowl champions. You know you had

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Speaker 1: the first game of the season. Oh yeah, we have

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Speaker 1: we have the Ravens coming up. Okay, um, I this

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Speaker 1: was a game Baltimore needed. I'm not off the Baltimore

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Speaker 1: Ravens again. I'm gonna and I know Rob G's gonna

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Speaker 1: come in here killing Lamar because that's what he does.

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Speaker 1: He loves to go after Jamal Murray. And I was

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Speaker 1: gonna kill Lamar Jackson. I just think the Ravens are

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Speaker 1: a team that, in their heads, shucks man, we can't

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Speaker 1: fall behind. We just can't. And you know they listen.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be double digit favorites against the Washington Football

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Speaker 1: Club and then they get the Bengals and they'll probably

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Speaker 1: beat down both of those teams pretty darn good than

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Speaker 1: they have the Eagles, another team that is in disarray

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Speaker 1: and folks Lamar Jackson. Eventually they'll get the Steelers at

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Speaker 1: the end of October. Lamar Jackson is now twenty two

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Speaker 1: and one in the regular season against everyone except the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: He's oh and three against Kansas City. So the big

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Speaker 1: picture takeaway, Patrick Mahomes is the most exciting player in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. That's undeniable. And I know Lamar Jackson's exciting,

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Speaker 1: but Mahomes is a different level because he can beat

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Speaker 1: you so badly from the pocket. And this is I

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Speaker 1: went on the Dan Patrick Show. I hosted it, I

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Speaker 1: think with Rob Parker a few months back in July,

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Speaker 1: and I compared Mahomes to Steph Curry and I laid

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Speaker 1: it out and a lot of people liked and of course,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Curry haters hated it. But think about this,

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, his father played professional baseball. Steph Curry's father,

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Speaker 1: Dell Curry, played in the NBA. Patrick Mahomes was under

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Speaker 1: recruited in high school. This was not a five star recruit,

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Speaker 1: slam dunk guy. He ended up at Texas Tech. Steph

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Speaker 1: Curry obviously the story is very famous. Um his father

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Speaker 1: played at Virginia Tech. He tried to go to Virginia Tech.

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Speaker 1: They said we'll make you a walk on. He's like,

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Speaker 1: I'll take a free boat from Davidson. So both of

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Speaker 1: them were not highly recruited in high school, and I

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Speaker 1: love this one. If you look at Mahomes his last

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Speaker 1: year at Texas Tech, they didn't even play in a

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Speaker 1: bowl game. They were ineligible for a bowl game because

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Speaker 1: they didn't win enough games. Steph Curry, of course, missed

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Speaker 1: the n c A Tournament in his final year at Davidson.

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Speaker 1: His second year was the year they made that epic

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Speaker 1: run to the Elite eight and lost to Kansas. UM.

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Speaker 1: I usually watched that UM postseason, that postseason run that

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Speaker 1: Curry made on YouTube, like I don't know, every six months,

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Speaker 1: just because I love it. UM. Patrick Mahomes did not

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Speaker 1: get drafted in the top five. There were questions about

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Speaker 1: Pat Mahomes. I was one of the guys who was like,

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Speaker 1: come on, Big twelve, they don't play no defense. He

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Speaker 1: dropped in the draft. Chiefs had to trade up. I

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Speaker 1: believe to ten Rob. You can check that force in

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Speaker 1: a second. Um, you know, fell out of the top five.

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Speaker 1: Curry was not taken in the top five, And don't

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Speaker 1: make me go through that. My favorite story, what are

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Speaker 1: my all time favorite stories leading up to the NBA

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Speaker 1: Draft was the Sacramento Kings had Tyreek Evans work out

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Speaker 1: against Steph Curry and made them play one on one. Now,

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry's not a one on one guy, and Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Evans murdered him, just killed Curry one on one. I mean,

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Speaker 1: and they, you know, the executives, Oh gosh, Tyree Tyreek Evans,

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Speaker 1: what a superstar? Oh holy cow? How good is this guy?

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Speaker 1: And you know the reality is Steph Curry is a

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Speaker 1: two time m v P unanimous m v P. Michael

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Speaker 1: Jordan was not a unanimous MVP. Curry's got four I

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Speaker 1: have three or four rings. I forget um but like

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Speaker 1: falling in the draft can be a good thing. It

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Speaker 1: worked for Mahomes, it worked for Curry. And finally, and

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Speaker 1: I know the haters are gonna hate this one, but

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and Steph Curry both interrupted greatness came out

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Speaker 1: of nowhere. Remember Tom Brady was supposed to be the

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Speaker 1: guy in New England who was gonna win more Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl Super Bowl Championships as Peyton Manning retired. Remember Brady

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Speaker 1: got one beating the Rams, and boom, out of nowhere

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Speaker 1: comes Patrick Mahomes. Holy cow, He's gonna take over the league.

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Speaker 1: And like I don't think listen, Brady's gonna one another

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Speaker 1: one you know he wants one in Tampa. But Mahomes

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Speaker 1: is really taking the shine off the end of Brady's career.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is a superstar and as much as I

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Speaker 1: like Lebron, and I think he's gonna end up as

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Speaker 1: the greatest player in NBA history with the title this year,

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry really for about five years there interrupted Lebron's greatness.

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Speaker 1: Remember Lebron went back to Cleveland with Kyrie. They were

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Speaker 1: going to wreck the league and didn't totally work out

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Speaker 1: that way as Kevin Durant and Steph Curry went on

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Speaker 1: an incredible run. I get Mahomes and Curry. Some people

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Speaker 1: are not gonna like the match up on sir. Some

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Speaker 1: people are gonna toss them, oh Jason, it's a light

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Speaker 1: skinned brother thing. Um, But I do like it um

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Speaker 1: between Curry and Mahomes. Now. Rob G wants to come

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Speaker 1: in hot with some Lamar Jackson hay toade. He's guzzling

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Speaker 1: that hatorade this morning, Rob G, Producer to the Stars.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts on Lamar Jackson nine seven passing yards on

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Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. Lamari Jackson is who we thought he was.

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Speaker 1: He is a tremendous talent. He was a well deserving

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Speaker 1: Animus m v P. But he is just not an

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Speaker 1: elite quarterback. And when I say that, I don't mean

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Speaker 1: that he's not a good player, not an elite player.

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Speaker 1: I mean an elite quarterback. An elite quarterback should be

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Speaker 1: able to bring you back when you're behind. When you say, hey,

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Speaker 1: we're down by seventeen, we're gonna have to score, score quickly.

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Speaker 1: We gotta put the ball on your shoulders, on that

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Speaker 1: right arm of yours, and you're gonna have to bring

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Speaker 1: us back. Patrick Mahomes is an elite quarterback. He is

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Speaker 1: won his last six games while trailing by at least

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Speaker 1: ten points. That's that's I think three in the playoffs, right, Yes,

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Speaker 1: that is a a NFL quarterback record, So obviously at

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Speaker 1: a different level of this, but just to give you

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Speaker 1: some idea as to what exactly you're getting from Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson as a passer, especially when they fall behind in

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Speaker 1: games since two eighteen, the Baltimore Ravens are oh and

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Speaker 1: ten when trailing at halftime in any game, including now.

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Speaker 1: All of that's not all on the mark because he

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Speaker 1: wasn't only you know, he only lost what is it

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Speaker 1: five games total as as a starter, so you know,

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Speaker 1: not on him. But that's just one thing. Here's another one.

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Speaker 1: In games where the other team scores at least twenty

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Speaker 1: five points, which means you're in a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a shootout. Okay, Patrick mahomes seven and six, which is

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Speaker 1: you know, I honestly that'd be higher, but still very good.

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Speaker 1: Seven states me. He's winning a lot of shootouts. Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson is oh and five. So when teams he doesn't

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Speaker 1: get so if he doesn't get defense, no, I mean

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Speaker 1: not just defense, if he doesn't get ahead early, or

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Speaker 1: he can just their offense can just grind you out

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Speaker 1: and run the ball and kill the clock and that

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Speaker 1: kind of stuff. He he's not built to win with

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Speaker 1: his arm. And I know people are gonna say, well,

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Speaker 1: you have the highest quarterback rate. He threw at a

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty quarterback rating three different times already, it's a record.

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Speaker 1: Watch him play and tell me that he you're worried

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Speaker 1: about him beating you from the pocket, you're not, well,

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Speaker 1: it's good, hold on, hold on, Robbie. It's a tough

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Speaker 1: one because he can win from the pocket, but I

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Speaker 1: think coming from behind in the sucket is the real

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Speaker 1: issue because he can he could drop balls into a buckets.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's a great passer. Yeah, I know, it's different,

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Speaker 1: do you think no, it's different when teams know you

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Speaker 1: have to pass. That's why when teams are when they're

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Speaker 1: behind and they can't just run the ball down your throat,

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna win. And that's why. And I tweeted

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Speaker 1: this out last night after the game. This game on

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Speaker 1: Monday night was being hailed as Jackson Mahomes, is this

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Speaker 1: the new Manning? Brady? I think even you said it

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Speaker 1: on the podcast, saying that is so disrespectful to Peyton Manning.

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Speaker 1: And I know that he didn't have the greatest postseason careers,

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Speaker 1: kind of the Clinton Kershaw of the NFL. But at

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Speaker 1: least when Payton Manning was in, even if they were

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Speaker 1: down by three scores, you're like, you know what, we

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Speaker 1: got about ten minutes on the clock, paint. If he

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Speaker 1: Payton gets quick a touchdown here, you know we might

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Speaker 1: see something special down down the stretch. As soon as

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Speaker 1: Lamar is down by ten, you're like, well, they're not

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to come back. Now, enough time because

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Speaker 1: each drive is gonna take eight minutes They're not gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to win in big chunk plays when if

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Speaker 1: the defense is expecting to throw so until he develops

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Speaker 1: as a quarterback, not as a a Swiss army knife

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Speaker 1: who can run all over the field and and and

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Speaker 1: orchestrate this really unique offense, until you can say, hey,

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Speaker 1: we're down by ten, we got to score quick. You're

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Speaker 1: the guy. Until you trust him to do that, they're

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Speaker 1: not going to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It's

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Speaker 1: why I think as soon as they face the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, they're gonna get smashed. If something happens

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Speaker 1: to the Chiefs and they fall off early and the

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Speaker 1: Ravens make a run of the Super Bowl and they

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Speaker 1: run into Aaron Rodgers, they're gonna get smashed. Hm. They

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Speaker 1: they they are not built to win like that. Well,

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Speaker 1: where this one really hurts Rob G is now there

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Speaker 1: essentially a game and a half back for the number

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Speaker 1: one seed, right because there is no boy for the

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Speaker 1: number two seed this year with seven in playoff teams.

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Speaker 1: And I would assume, again maybe this is an idiotic

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Speaker 1: assumption on my part that there will be fans in

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Speaker 1: the stadium in the postseason. I don't either I mean

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Speaker 1: going to Kansas City is not gonna be easy. We

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Speaker 1: know it's snows there in January like every day basically,

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Speaker 1: um and and yeah, this is this is this is

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Speaker 1: not good news for the Ravens. I don't think the

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Speaker 1: sky is falling you. You're very much on the pissimistic

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Speaker 1: side for the Ravens. Um. But again, you look at

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Speaker 1: that schedule, rob Gi, they're gonna be right there. It'll

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Speaker 1: be a stunner if they're not the number two seeds

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Speaker 1: in the a f C. Yeah, I would agree with that,

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Speaker 1: but that you know, they're the Houston Rockets. You don't

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Speaker 1: care if you win in the regular At this point,

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Speaker 1: I've already seen what you can do in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: What can you do in the playoffs? And the playoff

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Speaker 1: history says that you get Lamar Jackson in the postseason

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Speaker 1: and he's team is behind or they and you can't

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Speaker 1: just run down your throat. Completion percentage, three touchdowns, three picks,

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Speaker 1: quarterback rating of sixty two fumbles per game numbers, never

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Speaker 1: lie man, all right, that puts a bowl on Monday

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Speaker 1: Night football. Rogis King of the Haters. This episode is

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Speaker 1: a guest coming up later in the show, really Smart Guy,

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Speaker 1: to preview the Major League Baseball postseason, which begins today.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you're listening to this podcast before the first pitch

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Speaker 1: is thrown Edward E. Gross. I've done some television with him,

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Speaker 1: Really sharp guy, analytically based. You want to get smarter,

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Speaker 1: you listen to that. But first, Rob G and I

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Speaker 1: Rob G, I know you're gonna want to weigh in

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Speaker 1: on this. It was a stunner for me. So I

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Speaker 1: get home from the studio on Monday, Rob and you know,

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Speaker 1: I take off the clothes. I'm relaxing. I check in

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Speaker 1: with the old parents because I try to call my

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Speaker 1: parents often during COVID, and I get off my phone

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Speaker 1: and I was hearing all the beeps coming in, all

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Speaker 1: these buses on my tea. What is all these texts?

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Speaker 1: And I see the Doc Rivers fired slash parted ways,

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Speaker 1: which we know really means fired by the l A Clippers. Now,

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Speaker 1: this to me was a massive shocker because Doc Rivers

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Speaker 1: is well liked. Right Balmer and him or Cozy Kawahi,

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Speaker 1: Leonard and Paul George I mean, according to reports, they

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Speaker 1: wanted to go to the Clippers to play for Doc Rivers,

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Speaker 1: who was a very big players coach um and I

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Speaker 1: was just I was stunned. So I checked in with

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Speaker 1: a source who I got to know out here a

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Speaker 1: little bit in l A. And if you guys remember

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Speaker 1: I had this guy on the show. He was against

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Speaker 1: Preston Johnson early in the podcast, and I had met

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Speaker 1: him out here in l A. And you know, we

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Speaker 1: talked about and I told him, listen, I've developed a

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Speaker 1: pretty good Clippers source. And this gentleman told me that

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Speaker 1: Lou Williams is going to really struggle in the bubble

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Speaker 1: because he likes to juggle tons of women. That's like

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Speaker 1: what he does. That's his thing. Out here. He's got

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Speaker 1: a lot of girls. And as soon as the Lou

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Speaker 1: Williams left the bubble and went to a strip club

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Speaker 1: to get chicken wing story Kape, Preston texted me and

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Speaker 1: was like, holy cow, you've got a good Clipper source.

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Speaker 1: And I remember, oh, yeah, this guy, So I check

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Speaker 1: in with him instantly. What the hell happened to Doc Rivers?

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Speaker 1: Oh man got ugly at the exit interviews. I guess

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Speaker 1: they did depart the bubble, you know, everybody unwinds and

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Speaker 1: they go in and meet with powers that be. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they met with balmber Uh, Jerry West

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Speaker 1: the front office, and apparently people were not happy, and

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Speaker 1: I guess it did not go swimmingly in the bubble

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Speaker 1: and the doc Rivers is the big news, but the

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Speaker 1: other leg that again, this is just what I've heard

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Speaker 1: that Paul George did not get rave reviews from his teammates.

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Speaker 1: And my person would not be shocked if Paul George

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Speaker 1: were shipped out of town and the potential landing spot

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Speaker 1: is the Brooklyn Nets, where he would then team with

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Speaker 1: Kyrie and Kevin Durant, and in exchange, the Clippers would

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Speaker 1: get something along the lines of Carriss Laverte, Spencer Dinwittie,

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Speaker 1: some sort of second round draft pick because we know

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Speaker 1: they don't how many first or whatever. To balance out

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Speaker 1: the rest of the deal. I'm sure the Clippers would

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Speaker 1: love to get Jared Allen, who had to take a

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Speaker 1: back seat to DeAndre Jordan because DeAndre Jordan's friends with

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Speaker 1: Kyrie and Kevin Durant. I can't imagine the Brooklyn Nets

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Speaker 1: parting with Jared Allen he's a good, young big We

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Speaker 1: know the Clippers just got humiliated by yr Kitchen the

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Speaker 1: bubble Um, but it's not just Paul George. Now, I

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Speaker 1: did tweak this out and a lot of people freaked out.

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of angry messages from Brooklyn Nets fans.

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Speaker 1: We don't want Paul George. But the interesting thing is here,

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Speaker 1: it's not just Paul George. Like Montraz, Harrold is a

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Speaker 1: free agent. I think he might have cost himself some

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Speaker 1: money in the bubble. He really struggled. We know he

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00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: the passing of a relative and he didn't respond well

426
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: to the play in the bubble. And it's I guess

427
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 1: it's not a lot that he's coming back to the Clippers. Now.

428
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: I don't know where he might land. We know, um

429
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: Houston would love a small ball center. Uh, you can't

430
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: go the whole season with Robert Covington. So I don't

431
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: know where Harold ends up. Um, maybe he stays with

432
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: the Clippers that are reduced costs. He has to eat it,

433
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 1: but it would be if it's gonna be fascinating to

434
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: monitor the Clippers this offseason. Remember Rob, this was an

435
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 1: offseason where it was basically, oh, Janice is gonna get

436
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: the super Max offer and rejected, and then we'll have

437
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 1: fun with that. But really nobody else he's gonna hit

438
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: the market coordinay, were probably going to stay in Boston,

439
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: although they might try to move him. Um, and now

440
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 1: this Paul George thing could spiral into um, who knows what.

441
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 1: Rob gi any thoughts first of all on on this

442
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: Paul George stuff, And I listen, I don't want any

443
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: aggregators to freak out and try to put this out there.

444
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 1: I'm just saying what I've heard. Okay, this is not

445
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: I checked in with the Clippers and they denied I'm

446
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: not doing that stuff. Okay, Um, any thoughts, Rob, Paul George,

447
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: do you think he returns to the Clippers? Yes, only

448
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 1: because I don't think you'll be able to get a

449
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 1: haul that helps offset all the picks you gave to

450
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: get him. I think that's number one. Number two. I'm

451
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 1: a little upset that you said this is not for

452
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: the aggregator because I was in the middle of flagging

453
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: this as a promo that I was going to push out,

454
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 1: So you made my job. You can feel afraid to

455
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: do that. That's fine. Uh, I just don't like, I know,

456
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: I know the haters like to come out and go

457
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: after people. Uh, here's your reporting this, and and like

458
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: the trade doesn't happen, or a different trade happens, you

459
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: are wrong, Like, hey, I'm just telling you guys what

460
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 1: I heard. But number go ahead, well at number three.

461
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 1: I think that a lot of people, especially in the

462
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 1: sports media business, owe a big apology to Stephen A. Smith,

463
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: because he said our First Takes a few weeks ago

464
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: that with what you've been hearing about Paul George, that

465
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: he was quickly becoming the Dwight Howe word of the NBA,

466
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: and by that he was saying like, look, this guy

467
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 1: just doesn't get it. There's something with his personality and

468
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: his mental makeup that he's just not built for championship

469
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: level basketball. And a lot of people pushed back on it.

470
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 1: They're like, well, I can't you say about Dwight Howard. Um,

471
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: you know, Dwight was a clown. He saw what happened

472
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: in Orlando and then in Houston, and then you know,

473
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 1: his track record was much longer. Dwight Howard was like,

474
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 1: I want to eat skittles, right, But then there was

475
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: a small contingent and a lot of it was, you know,

476
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 1: real hoop eds were saying, well, actually, you're being disrespectful

477
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: to Dwight Howard because Howard was a much better player

478
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: than Paul George ever was. So that was one thing

479
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,439
Speaker 1: I intended to be on that side. So now that

480
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: we're kind of seeing this come out a little bit

481
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 1: more and a little bit more so, Chris Haynes had something,

482
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: Sham's had something, McIntyre has something, So everybody has a

483
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: little bit to add to this story. And I think

484
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: you're starting to see, uh, Paul George's true colors. Man. Well,

485
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 1: when you have these huge letdowns, Rob g Um, you

486
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: can't listen. This was a total embarrassment for the franchise.

487
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: They got. They had a three one lead against the

488
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets and Lakers just dispatched the Nuggets, as Rob

489
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 1: g likes to say, hashtag Lakers in five like like

490
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: it was no, no big deal. I mean, dude, dude,

491
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: somebody sent me this, Rob, I don't I haven't totally

492
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: confirmed it, but in the close out game, Lebron had

493
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: something like thirty six, fourteen and ten or whatever it was.

494
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: In Game seven close out against the Nuggets, Kauai and

495
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: Paul George combined for fewer points, rebounds, and assist than Lebron. Now,

496
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,959
Speaker 1: unfortunately I'm not gonna google that on the internet here,

497
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: but if that's true, that franchise has some major problems,

498
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: and I should have taken more of that into consideration.

499
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: I wonder if you think if the Nuggets had pushed

500
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: the Lakers to seven, does does Doc rovers maybe not

501
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: get fired or was it a fat accompany that as

502
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: soon as they were they lost, He's got to go

503
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: because it's embarrassing that the Lakers beat them as soundly

504
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 1: as the Clippers lost to them. I think he would

505
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 1: have had to go either way. I mean, like I said,

506
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: I expected as soon as the season was over he

507
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: was going to stay on because he's so well liked

508
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: and because he seemed to put on a a good

509
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 1: face for the league and during the whole boycott situation.

510
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: But the fact remains. I mean, if they if they

511
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: had made it to seven, and I don't think it

512
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: really matters because this is a fun staff for you.

513
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 1: In his first season as the Lakers head coach, Frank

514
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,479
Speaker 1: Vogel has three playoff series wins. You know how many

515
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: playoff series wins Doc Rivers has had in his entire

516
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: seven years with the Clippers three so I mean, you know,

517
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: it is what it is now and again, as a

518
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,959
Speaker 1: Lakers fan, I kind of I'm sad to see him

519
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: go because he was a terrible coach. As I've told you,

520
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 1: I would have loved to see him across the hall.

521
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: But you know, we ripped on Paul Georgia, ripped on

522
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,959
Speaker 1: Doc Rivers a lot. I think what I'm surprised at

523
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: still is where is the Kauai Leonard slander. That's a

524
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: good question, but I know the answer, man. He don't

525
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: say he's not on social media. He's not stirring the pot.

526
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: He's not posted up like at a club or vacation

527
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: ng or like Lebron's on Instagram stories. Every day. There's

528
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: something for people to comment about Lebron every single day,

529
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: whether it's Instagram, Twitter or whatever. Kauai is a ghost.

530
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: We haven't heard anything from him. Now, maybe Rob g

531
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: what if this is by design that he's staying out

532
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: of the mix because he oft Doc and he's gonna

533
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: get Paul George shipped out of town. And guess what,

534
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 1: there's no brush back if you're not on social media.

535
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: You're out of it, right, are you safe? That's could

536
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: be it. But then let me just say, speaking to

537
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: social media, I follow a guy. I want to putcher

538
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: his name, but he's at D A M A N R,

539
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: so I don't want to push your his name. But

540
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: he did a Kauai Leonard threat. I think you'll appreciate this.

541
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: This is just some facts about Kawhi Leonter but begin

542
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,719
Speaker 1: because he didn't talk. Nobody ever mentioned any of this stuff.

543
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: Number one, Kauai Ghost did a coaching ledge in Great

544
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 1: Papa's Great organization in the Spurs, to the point where

545
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: players straight up called him out. That's factual. Number two

546
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: demanded a trade from that organization. Demanded to be traded

547
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: to Los Angeles only, thus hurting the organization's ability to

548
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: get a good return. That's true. Number two. Number three

549
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: the only Finals m v P in history to leave

550
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: his current team behind instead of trying to repeat, and

551
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 1: in the process so we could get Steve Bamber to

552
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: buy him in a legal house and new Balance to

553
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: give him a better shoe deal at the expense of winning.

554
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: Number four demanded that an already good team, which the

555
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: Clippers were gut its asset base where all the young

556
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: players and a slew A picks for a short sighted

557
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: move to go in for palm Dale. Wesley Johnson, that

558
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: was kind of means, hold on, I don't know. I

559
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: don't know if the non l A listeners will know that.

560
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 1: So palm Dale's what like an hour outside of like

561
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: like two hours like I want to have. That's like,

562
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: they's not it's not quite a one stop like town,

563
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 1: but it's palm Dale's nothing special. And Wesley Johnson, that

564
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: was just me. So there's there's there's two more. There's

565
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: two more here. Wait wait, Wesley Johnson is a former

566
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: Syracuse study who I think with third overall in the

567
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: draft like four years. Yeah, right, okay, so last two.

568
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 1: On top of all of this, Kauai only gave his

569
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: new team a two year commitment, forcing the organization to

570
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: continue to make shortsighted moves, hurting their long term chances

571
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 1: of winning, and finally, in his last year of being

572
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: the leader of a locker room in the team, his

573
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,959
Speaker 1: team spectacularly collapsed in historic fashion despite being the overwhelming

574
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: favorite to win at all, and ends with Doc Rivers

575
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: being fired. Now, if that's any other player how the

576
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: hell he avoid criticism. Okay, so what's this guy's handle again,

577
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: d at d A M or d A M A

578
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: n R. I think it's Demon Rangoula. Okay, Oh, he's

579
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: like a radio guy. I just know that he puts

580
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: out good Laker tweets. That is that is a beat down.

581
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Listen. At some point. Here's the thing, though,

582
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: Kauai can just duck the media. He doesn't have to

583
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: appear for the front of the media for anything. You

584
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: we won't hear from Kawhi Leonard until I don't even

585
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: know when the season is gonna start January December, Like

586
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: he's just gonna he's gonna just hide out. Now maybe

587
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: if I see, Well, there used to be u c

588
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: l A runs in the off season, but I guess

589
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: you can't do those now because u c l A

590
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: is like in session. Um yeah, I don't know what's

591
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: gonna happen. Uh, that was good stuff. So we just

592
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: did a good ten minutes on the Clippers. Love a

593
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: little Clipper bashing. And now let's get to our guest. Uh.

594
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 1: He's a baseball analytical mind, really sharp individual and if

595
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: you want tips on how to bet the Major League

596
00:32:54,760 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 1: Baseball postseason. Take a listen to Edward E. Gross. The

597
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: more we learn about COVID nineteen, the more questions we have.

598
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: The biggest question now, what's next? What will COVID bring

599
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Speaker 1: in six months a year? If you're feeling anxious about

600
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611
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612
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613
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626
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

627
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: I know what sports stands want, but for everything he doesn't.

628
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

629
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy. All right, Let's

630
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,959
Speaker 1: welcome in to the podcast a new guest. We've never

631
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,240
Speaker 1: had him on before. Edward E. Gross is a gross

632
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: or E Gross Gross? Yes, go with your first. I

633
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: did a TV show on the tv G network with

634
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 1: the horse Racing Network about sports gambling with Ed I

635
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Speaker 1: Guess two years ago, and you know, I excel or.

636
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: I like to think I excel at basketball and football

637
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: and they had to do baseball. So I was like,

638
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 1: all right, I gotta I got a bone up on baseball.

639
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: And they were like, listen, the guy who's coming on

640
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: to talk baseball is dominant on baseball. I was like,

641
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: oh my gosh. So I met Ed and we were

642
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: doing the show and he's killing it, and uh, I

643
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: figured to preview the Major League Baseball playoffs. We've being

644
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: in ed ed. You are a a sports analytic expert

645
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: and you teach a sports analytics class at SMU. Is

646
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: that in person or zoom? Oh, it's it's all over

647
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: the place right now. Analytics right now is is largely

648
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 1: on zoom where all the students chime in, they sign in,

649
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: and then uh we basically code together as a class

650
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: where we open up our programs and make sure the

651
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: code is correct and we're following along and we're all

652
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: doing it remotely from pretty much across the country. A

653
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: lot of people in Dallas, but certainly there's some in

654
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: other places. And it's it's a lot of fun. I mean,

655
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: it certainly has his challenges in terms of making sure

656
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 1: that the internet works, that the power goes down and

657
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: there's not much you can do as far as that's concerned,

658
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: but the students have been great and it's a lot

659
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: of fun to teacher. So Ed, let me ask you,

660
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: when you say code, I think a large segment of

661
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: the listening population is like, wait, wait, does this guy

662
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 1: have a model? Did he build a model? We've only

663
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: had one other guest on UM, Preston Johnson, who's a

664
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: k A sports cheetah. I don't know if you know him,

665
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: but he's he's a guy with a model. And I

666
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 1: have a couple of buddies who built a college basketball model. Um,

667
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: but explained to the audience, like how you built this model,

668
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: how it came to be in your background, how you

669
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: got to this spot. Yeah, definitely. So my my breadground

670
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 1: is is in journalism and television. I've I've done that

671
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 1: for years and so you know, certainly the comfort is

672
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: there about as much as it can be. But you

673
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: know the thing about data and coding and all that

674
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: stuff is that you know the world is more analytical

675
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 1: now than ever before, and basically there's a number and

676
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 1: a statistic for just about everything. And so my background

677
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: has always been whether it's statistical economics or basic stats,

678
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 1: whatever it is. I've always been intrigued by what trends

679
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: we can find within the data. And so with analytics

680
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,760
Speaker 1: and with free software that you can download online, our Python,

681
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 1: whatever you want, you can download data, put it in

682
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: your software, and then uncovered trends in a variety of ways.

683
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: Sometimes it can be simple things like just finding the

684
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 1: straight line that best represents the points, to far more

685
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: complex things like machine learning, black box athods, whatever they

686
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 1: might be. And what's cool about this is that you

687
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: can actually uncover what trends are and then use whatever

688
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: data you have to predict what you think is going

689
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: to happen. And that's basically what analytics and gambling is

690
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: all about, is finding the trends, finding the regressions, finding

691
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: the models that you come up with based upon past data,

692
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: based upon history, and then projecting what is going to

693
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 1: happen using that current model. And so when it comes

694
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: to say baseball, here you can look at models that

695
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 1: have worked in years past in terms of the best statistics,

696
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: the most telling analytics in terms of pitching and hitting

697
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 1: and defense, things like that, and then use those numbers,

698
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: wait them appropriately, and then come up with your prediction

699
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 1: based upon what we saw in the regular season this year.

700
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 1: I love this and it does. I'm sure there's gonna

701
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: be people who are like, man, that's too much work, um,

702
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: But I'm telling ed you know that you're at the

703
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 1: forefront of this. And basically, as states realize holy cal

704
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: Covid put us in a bad spot, we need to

705
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 1: generate money. Gambling is going to be legal in probably

706
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 1: all fifty states within the next decade. That's my guess.

707
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: Is that reasonable it? I think it's absolutely reasonable, and

708
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: I think there's a real appetite for it. In fact,

709
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: during the early stages of this pandemic, I can't remember

710
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: where the article was from, maybe the New York Times,

711
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: but a lot of sports gamblers actually went to the

712
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: stock market. They were not investors at all, but they

713
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: still had the itch to gamble on something. So they

714
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 1: started doing all of this research on various stocks and

715
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: businesses that they knew absolutely nothing about, but they looked

716
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: at the data and figured out the best ways to invest.

717
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you can invest money in the stock market

718
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: far more easily now than you ever could. And I

719
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: think because that itch and appetite is there by so

720
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 1: many people, I think it's only gonna be a matter

721
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: of time, maybe even less than ten years, where gambling

722
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 1: is pretty much legal pretty much everywhere. And you're also

723
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 1: seeing it in states that are relatively conservative states like

724
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: West Virginia they have sports books now. I know Mississippi

725
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: has been really big on getting gambling going in terms

726
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: of revenue for the state and things like that. So

727
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: the fact that it's happening in different places, it's not

728
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: necessarily a regional thing. It's happening, you know here, and

729
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 1: they're sort of a hodgepodge. I think that means that

730
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: gambling will be even faster than perhaps or all anticipating.

731
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 1: And and in baseball, where you know, data has ruled,

732
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: I would say it got it ruled before the NFL

733
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: got heavy into data and the NBA. You know, the

734
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 1: three point revolution happened. But you've got to go back

735
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 1: to Billy Bean and the saber metric guys. Probably about

736
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 1: two decades ago baseball was at the forefront. So and

737
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 1: I'm assuming that you've got a ton of of data

738
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 1: here that you want to unload heading into the Major

739
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: League Baseball playoffs where you can help us find some winners.

740
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna do a first it I do a

741
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: best bet every night on the podcast, and I've been

742
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: hitting at a pretty darn good clip thanks to the

743
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: chiefs covering. I know you've said this a few times now. Yes,

744
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: I like to brag about I'm sorry, but I got

745
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: nothing on baseball. I haven't paid as much attention to it,

746
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 1: and Ed, I gotta be honest. This like regional bubble

747
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: set up the sixteen teams. This is a unique postseason.

748
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: I want to get in your head to find out

749
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: how you are approaching, uh, this opening round of the

750
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: baseball playoffs. So I look at it in a couple

751
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: of ways. Number One, there was a time when, yes,

752
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball postseason is an absolute crapshoot. You

753
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 1: see random teams that have no business winning the World

754
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: Series being there at the end of October, Teams that

755
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: were slightly above five in the regular season just getting

756
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 1: hot and then winning the whole thing. So, yes, it

757
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: can be a bit of a crapshoot. And what makes

758
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: matters worse is that you have three game series to

759
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: start out the postseason just so we can get done

760
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: by the end of October. And I think that is

761
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: going to make things a little bit more vulnerable. I

762
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 1: think it perhaps puts your favorites like the Dodgers and

763
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,399
Speaker 1: the Yankees UH in greater peril just because I mean,

764
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: how many times do the best teams in baseball lose

765
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: a three game series. It happens all the time. It's

766
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: not like a five or seven game series where you

767
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: you rely on pitching, you rely on hitting. Something is

768
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 1: going to pull through to where you trust what will

769
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: happen in the longer series. So yeah, I I don't

770
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 1: think any one team is necessarily should be UH an

771
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: overwhelming favorite. But at the same time, what also makes

772
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: this interesting is that I've never bought into, say, home

773
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: field advantage in baseball, and the slightest it's not like

774
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,240
Speaker 1: say basketball, where you have communication may be affected. In football,

775
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 1: you may have inherent referee bias that favors the home team.

776
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: In baseball, you really don't have any of that, And

777
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: I think it's it's just further exacerbated that. Yes, the

778
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: regional bubbles, okay, home teams make it that, but then

779
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: you're going to neutral sites anyway. I almost view baseball

780
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: as being neutral sighted games, so to speak. So there's

781
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: some things that I think matter, but other things that

782
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 1: may very well be over exaggerated. It's okay. So let's

783
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 1: start with the regional site idea. Okay, Um one, I

784
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: don't think many people assume the Padres would be in

785
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: the postseason. Here we are Padres in the postseason. Do

786
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: they have an edge since the bubble? Correct me if

787
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I mean, they're gonna be sleeping in their

788
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: own houses, whereas other team, the Cardinals, are not. I

789
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think so. I mean I like the Padres

790
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: for other reasons. I think certainly they're they're more than

791
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 1: capable of winning this whole thing, um, you know, especially

792
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 1: because of the youth that they have on this team.

793
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: Fer Nato Satis Jr. Top two percent in baseball and

794
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: barrel percentage top one percent and exit below, Will Myers

795
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: great expected sling percentage, Drink cronin Worth is outstanding. There

796
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: are a lot of guys on this team that I

797
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: really do like with this ball club. The fact that

798
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 1: they're sleeping in their own beds for the first little

799
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: bit and then maybe they don't have to travel as

800
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: far compared with the other teams. I don't buy that

801
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: too much in terms of this process, because I think

802
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: everybody is sort of dealing with it themselves, and certainly

803
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: you've seen players and teams in the past, just in

804
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 1: baseball than in other sports, where being at home can

805
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 1: be a disadvantage because you have more distractions, more things

806
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 1: you have to worry about. Sometimes it's that sort of

807
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: inherent leadership that says, Okay, block out all of your

808
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 1: other tasks, block out all of your commitments, and just

809
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: focus on this one thing you have to do, which

810
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: is win this baseball game. Sometimes it's better to be

811
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: far away for that. Yeah, how about the pitching? Do

812
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: you would you give an advantage to teams who had

813
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,439
Speaker 1: an edge in the bullpen given the no days off

814
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: three game series or the starting pitching uh in a

815
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: short series like this where I would assume, you know,

816
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: Shane Bieber is gonna open things for the Indians, and

817
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 1: you're you're not just gonna use him once and that's

818
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: gonna be it. He's probably gonna be eligible if there

819
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 1: is a game three. Any idea how that will work here? Well?

820
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 1: In general for postseasons, not this one necessarily, but in

821
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: seasons past. I tend to weigh bullpen war bullpenny r

822
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 1: A a little bit more than I do say, in

823
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 1: the regular season. It's one of the reasons why last

824
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: year I love the Tampa Bay Rays. That bullpen was

825
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 1: absolutely unbelievable and it's still good this year. And normally

826
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: I look at that and go, Okay, that will probably

827
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 1: mean a little bit more down the stretch. But what

828
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: makes this interesting this year is that, yes, you have

829
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: these three game series, and certainly pitching matters no matter

830
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: the situation. I look at the Division Series the next

831
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 1: round as being what's really critical in terms of bullpen play,

832
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 1: because you have five games in the same place and

833
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 1: there are no days off. There, no travel days, no

834
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 1: rest days, nothing like that, and so whomever starts Game

835
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 1: one of this series will probably start Game five on

836
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 1: short rest if that series goes to five games. So

837
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 1: to me, I look at this and go, what matters here?

838
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: Bullpen matters, But then also your hitters if they can

839
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 1: basically work other pictures as it were, So can you

840
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: work counts, can you get deep into accounts with your

841
00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 1: opposing pitching? So to me, yeah, bullpen matters, but it's

842
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: hitters who can force a picture to throw additional pitches,

843
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 1: and then you get deeper into those bullpens, and then

844
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: really test a manager's ability to figure out who's available,

845
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 1: who's not available, who can handle righty lefty matchups. I

846
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 1: think those are the teams that I think are gonna

847
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: have a bit a greater advantage here. Okay, before we

848
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 1: get to actionable picks, we've got some teams who have

849
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 1: not been here in a while, Padres White Sox, I

850
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: mean the Marlins in their first postseason since two thousand

851
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 1: and three. Um, and I don't have There really isn't

852
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 1: a quantifiable angle here. But does experience, which is very generic,

853
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: does that matter at all to you here? I think

854
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:42,839
Speaker 1: experience matters only in so far as if you, let's say,

855
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 1: you know, spin the roulette wheel enough times and you're

856
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:49,439
Speaker 1: trying to get just the one number right, Well, what's

857
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:51,359
Speaker 1: the best way to guarantee that you'll get that one

858
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 1: number right by spending it more often? So I look

859
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 1: at certain teams, like say the Atlanta Braves. They're they're

860
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 1: making the postseason, they're getting there enough times, they're winning

861
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: the division, and it's not necessarily the experience of that

862
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 1: because this is unusual, having a three game series and

863
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 1: a five game series. I I don't know if experience

864
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 1: is gonna matter there. It's a little bit ambiguous to me,

865
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 1: but the fact that you're just getting there enough times,

866
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: Like the Nationals last year, they were getting to the postseason,

867
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 1: they just couldn't string it all together, and then all

868
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: of a sudden they did. I wouldn't be surprised if

869
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,760
Speaker 1: the winner this year is someone who is constantly making

870
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: the postseason, not getting all the way, but then ultimately

871
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: they do. So let's start with one of those teams.

872
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 1: How about in the National League, the number one seed,

873
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Uh, you know, as a new guy out

874
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 1: here in l A for four years, I will say,

875
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 1: I mean, Dodgers fans are just on edge all the time.

876
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 1: As soon as October hits waiting for the postseason meltdown ed?

877
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: Is I mean, is this the year the Dodgers breakthrough? There?

878
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 1: I mean they are heavy favorites here. They are heavy favorites.

879
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: And like I said before, I I am nervous about

880
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 1: heavy favorites in general, because a three game series naturally

881
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 1: makes the entire process a little bit more volnaible. However,

882
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 1: if you look at some advanced models in terms of

883
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: putting a probability on the Dodgers chances of winning the

884
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: World Series. It's about a one in three I think.

885
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: I think that's about the consensus as far as that's concerned.

886
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 1: And if you look at say odds like implied probability,

887
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 1: it's it's more like a chance. And so there's actually

888
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: value in going chalk here taking the Dodgers, and then

889
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 1: you look at the hitting and actually break down, uh,

890
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: you know, the roster itself, and there are a lot

891
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: of things to like Will Smith, Corey, Seeger Mookie Betts.

892
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: All of these guys had waited runs, created plus of

893
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: one or better, exit velo hard hit percentage. All of

894
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 1: these guys are good one through nine. And I understand

895
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,320
Speaker 1: having a lot of division penance without much else to

896
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: show for it. But again, you make it enough times

897
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,720
Speaker 1: and eventually you break through. I mean, there's a reason

898
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: why Dodgers fans were so upset about the Astros controversy

899
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: involving trash cans because they know, boy, it wouldn't take

900
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: that much just to get over the hump. And this

901
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: is just another example that yes, there are other good

902
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 1: teams that can very you can very well win the

903
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: World Series, but you get there enough times. The starting

904
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 1: pitching is obviously dominant for l A and I I

905
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: don't see a problem going chalk here. Um. So so you,

906
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm assuming you have any future plays on

907
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, or if not the Dodgers, give me a

908
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 1: sleeper here, someone who you think the numbers say may

909
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 1: have a chance to break through and make a run.

910
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: So I've got two teams here in particular, they are

911
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: actually both outd of the National League that I think

912
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 1: can make a run. One is sort of a middle dog,

913
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: and that I have an enormous dog. So I'll start

914
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 1: with my middle one, and that would be the Atlanta Braves.

915
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 1: So what I did was I looked at expected batting

916
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,360
Speaker 1: average this year in the last few years, and I

917
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: don't want to go too far back because I think

918
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: the data is not as as clean as perhaps it

919
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 1: should be. But in terms of measuring exit below and

920
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: launch angle and runners speed, the data should be pretty

921
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,720
Speaker 1: sound by this point. So I look at expected batting

922
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 1: average among all teams over the last few years, and

923
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: the winner of the World Series, and usually the World

924
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: Series participants are in the top five as far as

925
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: that's concerned. That's what we saw last year with the

926
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: Astros and the Nationals. They were in the top five

927
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: in terms of expecting batting average. So the four teams

928
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 1: that are in the top four in the stat Padres Dodgers, Braves,

929
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,399
Speaker 1: and Yankees. And in terms of the biggest payout that

930
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 1: belongs to Atlanta Ronald Acuna, he's amazing. Austin Riley in

931
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 1: a short series. You know, the injury may be a

932
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: bit of a concern there. But Max Freed, the starting pitcher,

933
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:38,240
Speaker 1: is absolutely outstanding. Ian Anderson Young but a powerful strikeout monster,

934
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 1: bullpen ranks ninth and fangraphs war It's not great in

935
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: terms of strikeout numbers, but they will limit any damage. Uh.

936
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: Freddie Freeman, solid iso hitting numbers, great point discipline as well,

937
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 1: Barcelo Zuna, Dansby Swanson, high offensive wars. There are a

938
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 1: lot of guys to like here, and they're getting to

939
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: the postseason enough times to where maybe this is finally

940
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: the time they break through. Okay, So Braves, now you

941
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 1: didn't mention the raise the number one seed in the

942
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 1: A l um, does your model not like them in

943
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: terms of relief pitching that they're great, no doubt about it.

944
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 1: And I think if I'm looking at just basic probability

945
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 1: of winning the World Series. Yeah, I think the Rays

946
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 1: should be up there. And you know, for all the

947
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 1: reasons that I mentioned, uh in terms of pitching, starting

948
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 1: and relief pitching. The problem with me and the Rays,

949
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 1: part of it is pay out, because I I think

950
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: Vegas is telling us that the Rays should be a

951
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 1: rather significant favorite, and my overall probability is perhaps a

952
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: little bit lower than say, what the payout is going

953
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 1: to be. So because of that, I'm not a big fan.

954
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 1: Also too, when you look at expecting expect batting averages

955
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: said I referenced earlier or second worst in baseball, even

956
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: though w RC plus was near the top of the

957
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 1: American League because of guys like Brandon Low, Kevin cure Meyer,

958
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:57,320
Speaker 1: and William Adams. This may be an offense that falls

959
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,359
Speaker 1: back down to reality because of the raw power that

960
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: maybe they don't exhibit as much as you would like,

961
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 1: even though their overall offense certainly did well in terms

962
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 1: of basic box score numbers. I just don't think the

963
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: offense is good enough for me to feel comfortable about

964
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 1: them making So is there any value and say taking

965
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:20,959
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays to shock them in the first round,

966
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 1: I mean, if they get Game one Uh, you know instantly,

967
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 1: like you said, this short series, who knows what can happen? Um,

968
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 1: any chance of the Blue Jays pulled that offer. The

969
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: Blue Jays have been pretty good in terms of forcing

970
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 1: Pictures to throw more pitches. I think that is certainly

971
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 1: an advantage there. But other than that, I still feel

972
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,839
Speaker 1: like the Rays can win that first series because again,

973
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 1: the bullpen is so deep, so many arms they can

974
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: utilize to to sort of keep the Blue Jays on

975
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 1: their heels, so to speak. But at the same time,

976
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 1: after that, I have some real concerns about the Rays

977
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 1: doing much more. Uh. If you had to find best

978
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: value in a World Series matchup, are there two teams

979
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 1: that you think? Um, I don't. I mean, I'm sure

980
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 1: I'm assuming a lot of people want to see Yankees Dodgers,

981
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: But the reality is, I don't know. I've I've I

982
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: talked to someone today. They like the A's a lot

983
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 1: to come out of the A. L Um. Is there

984
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 1: a matchup that you think you can see happening. Well,

985
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 1: let me for certainly, Well, let me say one thing

986
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: about the A's though, in terms of why I'm a

987
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: little bit barish about them, And I know we've we've

988
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 1: witnessed this sort of sixty game schedule and wondered, Okay,

989
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: how representative of the sixty game schedule is what we

990
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: witnessed in terms of overall talent, And to me, I

991
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 1: think we have enough information to know who's good and

992
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 1: not and not as good. I know a hundred sixty

993
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 1: two games would help in terms of having more data,

994
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: more games, more things to look at. But if you

995
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,800
Speaker 1: look at the history of baseball, those first sixty games

996
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 1: of any season is usually pretty representative of what we

997
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 1: will see at the end of the regular season. So

998
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 1: if you performed well in this year, then chances are

999
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 1: you are pretty darn good baseball team. So that's one thing.

1000
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 1: The other thing, too, though, is when you look at

1001
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 1: the worst divisions in all of baseball, it is clearly

1002
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 1: the American League West. I know, the Central was probably

1003
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: the team that the division that I thought would be

1004
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: the worst coming in because of the Tigers, because of

1005
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: the Royals. But when you look at run differential, seven

1006
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 1: of the worst teams are three of the seven worst

1007
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 1: teams in baseball in terms of run differential, we're in

1008
00:54:25,080 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: the American League West, the Rangers, the Mariners, and the Angels.

1009
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 1: Why is this important? Well, it certainly inflates the overall

1010
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 1: numbers and abilities of the A's of the Astros, and

1011
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,439
Speaker 1: in all seriousness, because the Als played the n L West,

1012
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 1: it could exaggerate the numbers for the Dodgers and the

1013
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 1: Padres as well. And so when I look at the A's,

1014
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 1: you know, past postseason experience doesn't matter to me as

1015
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: much for them. But I do think those overall numbers

1016
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 1: that we may look at are a little bit exaggerated

1017
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 1: because I think strength of schedule matal matters just a

1018
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: little bit more here, all right. So the listener says,

1019
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 1: I want to throw some pizza money on one baseball

1020
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 1: team to win the World Series, and I really want

1021
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: to put it on the Padres. And you know, I

1022
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:16,320
Speaker 1: put fifty fifty dollars. Maybe it's a little bit expensive

1023
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 1: of a pizza, but fifty bucks on the Padres or

1024
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 1: fifty fifty bucks on the red listen l A prices,

1025
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: I mean two extra large with a tip fifty Um, Indians,

1026
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: can you buy the Astros? Give me give me an

1027
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: actionable long shot ish to UH to win the World Series.

1028
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 1: So my my biggest dog that I absolutely love is

1029
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 1: one team you have not mentioned. It's the Cincinnati Reds.

1030
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:50,240
Speaker 1: I am crazy about the Reds plus twenty four hundred,

1031
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 1: plus hundred, Trevor Bauers, Sonny Gray, Louis Castillo. It constituted

1032
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 1: the best starting pitching war in all of baseball. Four

1033
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 1: of the five teams and the National League Central made

1034
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 1: the postseason. That was a gauntlet that they went through,

1035
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: and they did very well and looked more than respectable

1036
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 1: as far as that's concerned. Uh, relievers look to be good.

1037
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: Raizel Iglesias is swinging strike rate close to Archie Bradley

1038
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 1: has a fit below three point four something. Uh. You know.

1039
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 1: Fan graphs brought up that that's important. Like I mentioned,

1040
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 1: game one starter will probably have to pitch on short

1041
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 1: rest for that game. Five lineups that can work pictures

1042
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 1: could be a little bit more important. And hitting, like

1043
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned before, if you can find a bunch of

1044
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:35,439
Speaker 1: hitters who can really work pitchers, force them to throw

1045
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 1: more pitches, exhaust that bullpen a little bit sooner than

1046
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 1: the opposition would like than, you really have something. And

1047
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 1: there are a few lineups that can do that better

1048
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:48,879
Speaker 1: than what the Reds have. Nick Castiliano's Joey Votto, show

1049
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 1: go Akiyama, Mike Mustakas. They can do those things. The

1050
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 1: Reds did a lot of good stuff in the off

1051
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 1: season to put themselves in this win now mode and

1052
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 1: it could very well work out in short order. I

1053
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 1: love it, ed. I will be putting some money on

1054
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:07,279
Speaker 1: the Reds too to win the World Series. Uh this

1055
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,840
Speaker 1: morning certainly all right? You can follow ed on Twitter

1056
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 1: at ed with sports, and you may be besieged by

1057
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 1: questions about building a model. I'm telling you, like, this

1058
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 1: is where the action is at. I mean, it's gonna

1059
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 1: certainly be here. I don't know if I'm smart enough

1060
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 1: to build a model, but I definitely have been doing

1061
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 1: some practicing coding with my my fourth grade kid, and

1062
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 1: um a little I'm learning scraping and fun stuff like that.

1063
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: So I can build a website, but building a model,

1064
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,439
Speaker 1: and that's next level. I don't quite think I'm there yet.

1065
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 1: Don't you worry? Don't you worry? As as the professor

1066
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 1: in this duo, don't don't you worry in terms of

1067
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Speaker 1: you know, making sure you can get not to mention

1068
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 1: too and an amazing how much younger and younger kids

1069
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 1: are are becoming in terms of the ability to code,

1070
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Speaker 1: design websites, design apps, all that stuff. I mean, it's

1071
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 1: amazing that, like in college, if you could do these things,

1072
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: you were quite brilliant. Now you need to be in

1073
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: fourth grade, third grade just to get started to make

1074
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 1: sure you can stay competitive. I mean, I'm also old.

1075
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 1: The Internet wasn't even around when I was in elementary school.

1076
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 1: You're obviously a little younger, red, but alright ed. Great stuff.

1077
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Speaker 1: Thanks a lot. Hopefully the listeners can win some money

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Speaker 1: based on your baseball picks and uh enjoy the postseason.

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