Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Ukraine's president of Blosmore Zelenski says he expects a decision
Speaker 2: this week by the European Union on a new sanctions
Speaker 2: package on Russia. The measures the nineteenth package would be
Speaker 2: expected to focus on entities in third countries like China
Speaker 2: and India, but the role of the United States will
Speaker 2: be key to make the measures work. Joining us now
Speaker 2: to discuss Daniel Tanabam, who is global anti financial crime
Speaker 2: practice leader at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Daniel, great
Speaker 2: to see us with the with us in the Brussels
Speaker 2: Radio studio. You're here in the city for an Atlantic
Speaker 2: Council event that's happening later this morning, with among others,
Speaker 2: the EU sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan. So we appreciate having
Speaker 2: your perspective this morning. We're talking about this nineteenth package
Speaker 2: of sanctions by the EU on Russia. Is there much
Speaker 2: more pressure that can be exerted by the European Union
Speaker 2: at this stage on Russia and its economy?
Speaker 1: There is, Stephen, and I think it's important to note
Speaker 1: enforcement is a key element of any saying regime. I
Speaker 1: say this is an alarm of the US government. Sanctions
Speaker 1: agency enforcement has largely been lacking, not just from Europe,
Speaker 1: but from the US and UK as it relates to
Speaker 1: all of the earlier sanctions. There's more sanctions that can
Speaker 1: be levied on third countries like India and China. Although
Speaker 1: I do think there's a difference of view between the
Speaker 1: US and the U on tariffing versus sanctions. My president
Speaker 1: seems to have fallen off on sanctions as of Leyden
Speaker 1: likes tariffs because they generate revenue, supposedly.
Speaker 3: In terms of whether there is willingness in the Trump administration,
Speaker 3: I mean, it's interesting that you don't think that there's
Speaker 3: been enough follow through in Europe despite the concerns that
Speaker 3: obviously the EU and the UK have around Russia. Is
Speaker 3: there willingness?
Speaker 1: Do you think?
Speaker 3: Is there anything changing in the Trump administration? It all
Speaker 3: does seem to depend on President Trump's attitude of Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 1: Sadly it does, and I think it's important to note
Speaker 1: the President has imposed absolutely zero new soundctions on Russia
Speaker 1: since he's taken office. There have been sanctions on the
Speaker 1: International Criminal Court, there have been sanctions on a Brazilian judge,
Speaker 1: and the guy's wife. There have been no sanctions on
Speaker 1: Russia in nine months, and now you have a new
Speaker 1: strategy on secondary tariffs, which didn't really exist before someone
Speaker 1: uttered it. I think in April or May. It is
Speaker 1: a real question of what the president wants to do.
Speaker 1: He's had a sanctions package drawn up on the shadow
Speaker 1: fleet for months, he has not signed.
Speaker 2: It yet, so what should be reached into that.
Speaker 1: I think the argument that's been made is that sanctions
Speaker 1: will be an impediment to a negotiation with Russia. Well,
Speaker 1: then what are the missiles that keep being launched into
Speaker 1: Ukraine as it relates to Russia as a continued aggression
Speaker 1: increasing only since the Alaska summit. I think there is
Speaker 1: a real question of why this president will not impose
Speaker 1: sanctions and the Senate will not impose them without the
Speaker 1: president's go ahead either.
Speaker 2: Where does that leave the European Union and all of this.
Speaker 2: We've got you leaders gathering in copah Hagen in a
Speaker 2: couple of days. What do they do if they can't
Speaker 2: seem to get the support of action that's needed out
Speaker 2: of Washington.
Speaker 1: I think the only positive I can glean out of
Speaker 1: the last few weeks is David O'Sullivan, who I'm speaking
Speaker 1: with in a few hours, was in Washington with a
Speaker 1: delegation from the EU. I think about two weeks ago
Speaker 1: was the first real meaningful discussion as I understand that
Speaker 1: the US and Europeans have had on Russia sanctions, but
Speaker 1: it means that the EU will continue to need to
Speaker 1: be out in front and it really does need to
Speaker 1: educate the block in how to effectively enforce and police
Speaker 1: these sanctions as a meaningful reminder for companies who would
Speaker 1: be on the wrong side of this regime.
Speaker 3: Having said that, if you look at the date on
Speaker 3: Russia's economy, I mean there are fewer petro dollars expected
Speaker 3: by the Russian government and obviously their war spending is increasing,
Speaker 3: so it is having some impact in terms of what
Speaker 3: Moscow is managing together.
Speaker 1: There's no doubt it's having an impact. However, the trade,
Speaker 1: especially for oil between India, China and Russia is not insignificant,
Speaker 1: and those countries have not really felt the pressure to
Speaker 1: make a choice. Now China the US kind of puts aside.
Speaker 1: India is the one where the US is attempted to
Speaker 1: exert pressure over the last few months because it isn't
Speaker 1: focused as much on a trade deal like it is
Speaker 1: with China. But until you begin to get India and
Speaker 1: China to kick their Russian oil habit, it is difficult
Speaker 1: to really disrupt the flow of funds that they're getting
Speaker 1: to finance this war in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Do you think that we're any way close to that?
Speaker 2: Is there any sign that the Trump administration could move
Speaker 2: towards particularly India one entity been sanctioned.
Speaker 1: Look, there's never been a country and economy the scale
Speaker 1: of Russias that have been sanctioned, so any thought that
Speaker 1: the sanctions would so immediately impact them, we're always a
Speaker 1: bit of a misnomer that it will take time. Even
Speaker 1: the fact that the Europeans in this nineteenth Package are
Speaker 1: willing to push up a year kicking LNG that is meaningful,
Speaker 1: But it was always going to take time to isolate
Speaker 1: and really impact the economy of this size, which I
Speaker 1: do think you are beginning to see, judging by the
Speaker 1: taxation changes you're seeing reported out of Russia.
Speaker 3: In terms of what that means, I'm trying to understand
Speaker 3: what this means for your clients. Then if you know
Speaker 3: we're talking about the ineffectiveness, as you see it, of
Speaker 3: what the EU and what the US has done against
Speaker 3: Russia economically, How do your clients view then these sanctions
Speaker 3: efforts and how do you advise them. Surely they would
Speaker 3: be less concerned about doing business with Russia. Is that's
Speaker 3: not the case.
Speaker 1: So most of my clients have been out of Russia
Speaker 1: for years and abandoned ship pretty quickly after the invasion.
Speaker 1: Now there's a number of European clients that are still
Speaker 1: operating in Russia because it's not illegal. There's certain business
Speaker 1: that they can do. Now should they be doing that?
Speaker 1: That's certainly the real existential question. Without enforcement that was
Speaker 1: so famously done for sanctions of Asian related to Iran
Speaker 1: and Libya, Cuba and North Korea for years reminding companies
Speaker 1: the consequences of getting this wrong, they don't feel the
Speaker 1: pressure to make that choice either, and that is where
Speaker 1: Europe can really step up in administering and enforcing these
Speaker 1: sanctions a lot more aggressively within the block, because that
Speaker 1: stick works to make companies feel the need to make
Speaker 1: a choice of things that could be on the border
Speaker 1: of legality.
Speaker 2: What's the key change that needs to happen on that
Speaker 2: policy of the divisions among U countries as well, So
Speaker 2: what will be the most effective move that leaders could
Speaker 2: decide on now, Well, some of.
Speaker 1: It's a maturity issue. I mean, European sanctions haven't been
Speaker 1: that big a deal historically until this invasion in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two. I don't take for granted the fact that
Speaker 1: in the US we've had the Office of Foreign Assets Control,
Speaker 1: a singular agency task with administering and enforcing sanctions. There
Speaker 1: is no equivalent in Europe. There's no equivalent in any
Speaker 1: European country. The UK is the only other country that
Speaker 1: has an equivalent. So it's a maturity of governments beginning
Speaker 1: to figure route who is on point to really enforce
Speaker 1: these sanctions, and then getting on with it, essentially,