1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson 3 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: in this episode ten to sixty five of the Late 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Well, little uh, my voice is 5 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:24,600 Speaker 1: still jacked up, so I'm gonna save it as much 6 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: as I can for these mailback questions. I mean, I 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: even had my son do the Thanks for tuning in, 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: so let's get right to it. 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from David. 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: It says, is there a standard approach to limiting waiver 11 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: wires slash free agent activity for teams that are not 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: in competition for a league championship? In our league, we 13 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: have a mildly embarrassing reward for the team that comes 14 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: in last place, So technically everyone still has something to 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: play for even if they're not in the championship bracket. 16 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: Thoughts. 17 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: So I talk about this each year, but I got 18 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: this question a few times this week, so let's just 19 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: talk talk about it again so that we're all on 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: the same page. I also think it's an interesting discussion. 21 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: I think the common take for this from fantasy analysts 22 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 1: is to say that only teams in the actual playoffs 23 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: should be able to make moves off the waiver wire. 24 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: And while I understand that stance, here's the counterpoint to that, 25 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: why should playoff teams have an easier time getting. 26 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 2: Players off the waiver wire? To me, the best team 27 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 2: should win the Fantasy Championship. 28 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 1: I know we play these single elimination tournaments and it's 29 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: not always going to be that way. 30 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 2: That's fine. 31 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 1: It's the same deal in the actual NFL, but I 32 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: at least want those single elimination tournaments to be fair, 33 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: and to me, the best teams they're the ones who 34 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: are most prepared for that stretch run. It's the teams 35 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: who have the best rosters going in, not the ones 36 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: who luck into a couple of running back injuries and 37 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: get the handcuffs off the waiver wire going into Week seventeen. Now. 38 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: I know the other side of this argument is that 39 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: the team should just plan ahead, stash all the handcuffs, 40 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,919 Speaker 1: make sure you're blocking your opponents, and that's all fair. 41 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: I'm just saying as a counterpoint that I don't think 42 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: this is as black and white as people make it seem. 43 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 2: I see both sides. 44 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: Of the argument, and that's especially true if the non 45 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: playoff teams are playing for something like if there's a 46 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: punishment involved, Yeah, I would want to be adding players 47 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: off the waiver wire. If I was playing for last place. 48 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 1: How is that any different than the championship bracket. You're 49 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: still playing for something. Generally, if my teams are out 50 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: of the playoffs and there's nothing on the line, I'm 51 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: not adding players to my teams. There's no reason to. 52 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: It's kind of freeing knowing that there's one fewer league 53 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: that I have to deal with, if I'm being honest, 54 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: and that's probably the way that most leagues should act. 55 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: If you're not playing for anything, then don't add anyone. 56 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: If you are, then you should be able to add 57 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: during the regular waivers. Now, if you're in a situation 58 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: where maybe people are playing for something small, don't allow 59 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: them to add players during the waiver period, but allow 60 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: them to get guys in free agency once that period ends. 61 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: But I did want to introduce the Devil's Advocate to 62 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: all of that, because I think there's something to be 63 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: said about having an easier time getting the hot waiver 64 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: ad for that week, and it's not talked about enough. 65 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: It's at least something to think about this be'st question 66 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: from Jeff h It says, what do we do with 67 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson? His potential upside is still leading to consistently 68 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 1: high weekly rankings, but he just doesn't look right for 69 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: teams that have managed to make the playoffs or are 70 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 1: on the cusp. Despite rostering Lamar, where do we go 71 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: from here? I'm legitimately considering benching him for Jacoby Brissett 72 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: for the rest. 73 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: Of the season. 74 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 1: So one thing I'll say, and maybe this isn't relevant, 75 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'll often get questions like this 76 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: where it's like, should I play this fringe player rest 77 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: of season? And my answer is, why give yourself that 78 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: problem to answer right now? 79 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 2: Fantasy football is a weekly game. Take it week by week. 80 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: I have no issue if you're worried about Lamar Jackson 81 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: and you'd rather just use Jacoby Brissett this week, even 82 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: in a tougher matchup, because he's been giving us really 83 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: good fantasy production. But what if Lamar Jackson blows up 84 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: this week against Pittsburgh, You're just gonna start toa Kobe 85 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: Brissette rest of season because you said you would in 86 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 1: Week fourteen. If the questions about dropping Lamar Jackson. I 87 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: would not do that, but I agree with you he's 88 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: not totally looking right. But Jackson could have had a 89 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,919 Speaker 1: much much better outing last week in Fantasy if not 90 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: for a couple of things happening, like the Isaiah Likely 91 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: fumble or the pass interference call that doesn't always get 92 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: called on Zay Flowers. What was good to see was 93 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: that Lamar Jackson had two design rush attempts after having 94 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: just one and the two prior games combined, and he 95 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: was scrambling a little bit more too. The problem is 96 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh has historically played him pretty well, so I 97 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 1: think this week there's just a ton of volatility. You 98 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: have to ask yourself if you can handle that and 99 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: if your team needs that. But I can tell you 100 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: that I would not be dropping Lamar Jackson right now, 101 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: even if he still hasn't looked one hundred percent himself 102 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,119 Speaker 1: and they get the Bengals and the Patriots in weeks 103 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 1: fifteen and sixteen. You wouldn't be very happy if someone 104 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 1: else had Lamar Jackson in your fantasy playoff because you 105 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: dropped him, and then Lamar Jackson just goes off because 106 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: those are two very good matchups. So if you want 107 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: to bench him this week, if you want to wait 108 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: and see, I totally get that logic. I understand, but 109 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 1: there's no chance that right now I would be dropping 110 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. This best question is from Twitter. It's from 111 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: at TLW Travis. It says, in the playoffs and with benchroom, 112 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 1: what's your stance on having more than one quarterback and 113 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: tight end? I currently have three quarterbacks and two tight ends. 114 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: My wide receivers and running backs are strong. Tempted to 115 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: drop someone like Rodriguez to add Fannin and play matchups 116 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: with my tight ends. Free agents are bad. So I've 117 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: heard different iterations to this over the last couple of weeks, 118 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 1: and I think it just needs to be said. Guys, 119 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: you gotta do what you got to do during this 120 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: time of year with your bench. In the early parts 121 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,119 Speaker 1: of the season, you want more running back and wide 122 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: receiver flyers. That slowly shifts as you get closer to 123 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: the playoffs. You want more insurance. If you're a championship 124 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 1: caliber team, you want more volatility. If you're not having 125 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: multiple onesies, quarterbacks and tight ends, it's more of that insurance. 126 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: Play, even if. 127 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: It means that you're blocking other teams. When you have 128 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: an inferior team that's barely getting into the dance, you 129 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 1: might want to go with more running back handcuffs of 130 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: running backs that you don't have, like get Blake Koram 131 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: if you don't have Kien Williams. I mean, you should 132 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: have Blake Korum regardless, or just get some wide receivers 133 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: with upside, because those positions are objectively more important in 134 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: fantasy football. But if you feel good about those important positions, 135 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: then you need to do what you got to do 136 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: at quarterback and tight end. I have multiple quarterbacks and 137 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: tight ends and tons of my leagues. Rostering a lot 138 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: of them not only gives you flexibility for that three 139 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: week playoff run, but it can also block your opponents 140 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: from streaming. 141 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: So do as you wish. It's no big deal this 142 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: time of year. 143 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: This best question is also from Twitter's from at who 144 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: Dat's Say nine, It says, what does the playoff outlook 145 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: for Jacoby Myers Parker Washington's injured had twenty percent of 146 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: slot snaps last week and ninety four percent routeshare twenty 147 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: six percent target share. Seems like a ridiculously solid flex 148 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: play at worst moving forward, yeah, I agree. The more 149 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: I've dug into Jacoby Myers' profile and what he's done 150 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: over the last few weeks, the more I like him. 151 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: I talked about this on The Sleeper Show, but Myers 152 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: has seen target shares of twenty seven percent, twenty percent, 153 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: and twenty four percent over his last three games. He's 154 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: seen eleven fifteen to twenty one PPR points, and over 155 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: the last two weeks, he's had routshares of ninety one 156 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: percent and ninety four percent. According to Fantasy Points data, 157 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: Myers is a twenty eight percent first read target share 158 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: over his last three games. That's basically a top twenty 159 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: number on wide receiver across the league during that timeframe, 160 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: and during those three weeks, only five wide receivers have 161 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: more end zone targets. Now, Jacksonville does get Denver in 162 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: Week sixteen, so Myers is going to be tougher to 163 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: play in that matchup, and we'll see where Sauce Gardner 164 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: is at when they face off in week seventeen. But 165 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: at the very least, it's hard to not like him 166 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: over the next two weeks against the Colts and the Jets, 167 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: especially with his Parker Washington injury. Myers feels pretty underrated 168 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: right now. The last question this week is from robot 169 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: Randy on Bluesky. It says, should cammore Dynasty managers be 170 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: terrified or can we comfortably blame the dog you know 171 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: what ecosystem. So there are two levels to looking at 172 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: something like this. One is the first, analyze the player 173 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: and assess a proper hit rate to that player's profile. 174 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: I mean you don't need an actual number. I just 175 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: mean look at history, look at what the player's working with, 176 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: maybe find some comps and see what the odds are 177 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: that he's going to actually pan out into some super 178 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: usable fantasy asset. And then there's the cost element. A 179 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: lot of times I'll still invest in draft players who 180 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: I don't even love because the market doesn't love them either. 181 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: Like I didn't think Kyle Manungai was that great of 182 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: a prospect. I still doubt he becomes like a true 183 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 1: belcal back, but he's definitely been really good, don't get 184 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: me wrong. But I still drafted him in both Dynasty 185 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: and Reed draft leagues in Best Ball leagues because the 186 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: cost was nothing, and there were situational factors that were 187 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: really working in his favor, like the system that he 188 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: was in in the backfield competition that he had. So 189 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: let's look at that first piece first. What has cam 190 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: Wored done and have other quarterbacks in a similar boat 191 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: taken the leap in future years. Let's just look simply 192 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: at fantasy points per game wards averaging nine point seven 193 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 1: standard fantasy points per game right now, which is not great. 194 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: We've had forty nine rookie quarterbacks play eight or more 195 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: games since twenty eleven while also hitting two hundred pass attempts. Now, 196 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: looking at just points per game with those guys isn't 197 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: super helpful because a lot of them played in games 198 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: but didn't start, like Lamar Jackson, for example. So I 199 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: looked at those forty nine quarterbacks and found their points 200 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: per game averages and games where they had fifteen or 201 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: more pass attempts during their rookie season. There were four 202 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: quarterbacks who were under the ten points per game mark, 203 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: Bryce Young, Dwayne Haskins, rest In Peace, Josh Rosen, and 204 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: Blaine Gabbert. When you changed that filter to twelve points 205 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: per game, you add Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Kaiser, Mitch Trubisky, 206 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 1: Derek Carr, Austin Davis, and Brandon Weeden. Right now, cam 207 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 1: Mood has an adjusted net yards per attemporary of four 208 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: point zero among rookie quarterbacks since twenty eleven with two 209 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: hundred pass attempts. So this ignores games played, So our 210 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: samples a little bit bigger. Only Zach Wilson, Blake Bortles, 211 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: Deshaun Kaiser, Bryce Young, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Rosen, and Jared 212 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: Goff were worse. 213 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: Right above Ward in. 214 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: That statistic, it is Spencer Ratler, Gino Smith, Justin Fields, 215 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: Christian Ponder, and then Dwayne Haskins, and then after that 216 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: you finally get Josh Allen like a big hit. Now, 217 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: I could do this for days, no matter how you 218 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: slice it, no matter the metric you're looking at. 219 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: Cam Ward is. 220 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: Being placed with a bunch of bus because his numbers 221 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 1: are just really bad right now. But yeah, you layer 222 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 1: on the situation which have been horrible and you can 223 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: at least excuse some of this play. My problem with 224 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: this kind of thing is that, generally speaking, and this 225 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: isn't full proof, but generally speaking, we learn more than 226 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: we realize about a player after that player's rookie season. 227 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: There are always going to be exceptions to that rule. 228 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: At every position. But we're just talking about odds here, 229 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: and the odds that cam Ward becomes some stud in 230 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: fantasy football. They're not great objectively, I think we can 231 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: all agree on that. So what I really try to 232 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: do in these situations is not allow these excuses, which 233 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: are genuine excuses he has not been in a good situation, 234 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: but the excuses of supporting cast, of coaching, of situation. 235 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: I try to not let those overshadow absolutely everything. If 236 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: you want a really big breakdown of my thinking and 237 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 1: philosophy on that, you can go back and listen to 238 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: episode nine hundred and ninety, which is titled The Gray 239 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: Area of Fantasy Football. That's the now infamous episode where 240 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: I talked about trading Roma Dunesay essentially for Mecha Buca 241 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 1: back in May, because I was trying to look at 242 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: the range of outcomes for a Donsay and I didn't 243 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: simply want to give him all the benefit of the doubt. 244 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 2: Like you can almost think of it this way, think 245 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 2: of a scale of zero to one hundred. 246 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: One hundred of mean that you're dismissing all rookie season 247 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 1: production because of situation, because of environment. Zero means that 248 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: you're dismissing none of it. You don't think circumstance matters 249 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: at all. You don't want to be on either end 250 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: of that range. You want to look at it like 251 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 1: a slider. You'll get all the individual things, how they 252 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: were as prospects, what kind of teammates and support they 253 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: had on the field, what kind of coaching they had, 254 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: whether they had injuries, and you want to slide that 255 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: closer and clo closer to the right number. There's no 256 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: obvious formula for that. That's what makes fantasy football so awesome. 257 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: We can use numbers, but we use numbers to guide 258 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: us in the right direction, not to just give us 259 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: every single answer. 260 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 2: That's why this game is so awesome. 261 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: But this little example is just help you visualize how 262 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: this isn't some black and white thing. And I do 263 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: think Episode nine to ninety walks through that process in 264 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: more detail than I can today. But then on top 265 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: of all that is the cost. And that's really what 266 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: this comes down to. One of the issues that I 267 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: have with quarterbacks in Dynasty and we'll just talk superflex 268 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: here because they just don't matter nearly as much in 269 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: a single quarterback league, but historically speaking, quarterbacks have maintained 270 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: market value pretty well year over year in dynasty, like 271 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: from year one to year two. Like if you just 272 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: go look at keep trade cut right now and you 273 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: look at cam Ward's dynasty value, he was QB seventeen 274 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: over the summer. He peaked at QB fourteen, but he 275 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: was mostly QB seventeen even a couple of weeks into 276 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: the season. You know where he's at right now. He's 277 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: a QB twenty one, which, sure that's not unfair, but 278 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: he's literally had one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons 279 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 1: statistically that we've seen in recent memory, and he's only 280 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: lost four quarterback spots in value depending on the timeframe 281 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: that you're looking at. I did an episode on this 282 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: a while back, but this is not an uncommon thing 283 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: that we see at the quarterback position. Managers are really 284 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: patient with quarterbacks. I mean they were patient with Kenny Pickett. 285 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: He barely lost any value from his rookie season to 286 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: a second season. 287 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 2: And it wouldn't shock me at all. 288 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: That if in May and June we get a little 289 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: bit of that cam Ward hype train going and his 290 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: value goes even further north, it gets even better. So 291 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 1: from that perspective, I do think you're gonna be better 292 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: off selling this kind of player than buying him. That 293 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that I'm like a cam Moard hater or 294 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: that I think there's a zero percent chance that he 295 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: becomes something fantasy football so it is not real football. 296 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: We can make moves all the time and capitalize to 297 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: make our rosters better, and I'd much rather sell early 298 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: than late with an asset like this because if he 299 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: does go the direction that most quarterbacks with his numbers go, 300 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: regardless of situation. If he goes in that direction, he's 301 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: gonna look a lot worse in the dynasty market this 302 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: time next year. At the end of the day, this 303 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: is all a probability driven game. We're playing the odds. 304 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: Nothing in fantasy football is certain, but if you play 305 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: the odds correctly, you're gonna win out in the long run. 306 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of 307 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: you for listening. If you had subscribed to Late Round 308 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are but shooting for 309 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow 310 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Seriously, guys, 311 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much for putting up with my voice 312 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: this week. I greatly appreciate it. It's just as annoying 313 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: for me as it is for you. I promise you. 314 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: Later today you're gonna hear a late Round Perspective episode, 315 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: and then the Round Fantasy Football show will be live 316 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: at one pm Eastern, and then obviously that'll drop in 317 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: the feed tomorrow morning. 318 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 2: Appreciate all of you, guys. Good luck in Week fourteen.