1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: We are fortunate, we get lucky. We've got a great 7 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: set of conversations today, but. 8 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 3: We don't know the news flow. Here's the news flow. 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 2: Bank of England they leave raids, they say interest rates 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 2: quote likely to be reduced further, they do not talk 11 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 2: about Liverpool's a defensive strategy. Bank of England sees inflation 12 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 2: at one point eight percent Q one twenty twenty eight. 13 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 3: None of that matters. What matters is and. 14 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: This is particularly for the United States crew listening this morning. 15 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: It was a five to four vote joining as Senior 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 2: Vice president descent at a missoo. Jordan Rochester joins us 17 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,320 Speaker 2: this morning. Jordan, let's rip up the script and you 18 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: can do this because you're encyclopedic. 19 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 3: Do Americans have to get used to a Bank of 20 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 3: England descent with the upset over our new chairman? 21 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 4: No, I don't think they're going to be upset at all. 22 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 4: The Bank of England is doing what Donald Trump would 23 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 4: like his own Center Act to do, which is they're 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 4: slowly cutting interest rates. And the annoying part about the 25 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 4: banking is how slow it's kind of been in the 26 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: past few months. There's a little bit of a political 27 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 4: problem the budgets that we've had from Rachel Reeves. The 28 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 4: Chancellor had raised inflation in twenty twenty four when she 29 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 4: gave that budget, so last year we had sticky inflation. 30 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 4: A good half percent of the inflation the UK had 31 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 4: came from her tax raising measures. 32 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 5: It's now flipped the other way. 33 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 4: The Chancellor learned her lesson and in the budget she's 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 4: cut taxes in certain areas. So the banking is looking 35 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 4: at a more dubbish outlook. Inflation is going to hit 36 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 4: their target pretty much by the spring into the summer, 37 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 4: and in our view, we're going to get more rate 38 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: cuts from them today. 39 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 2: We didn't get it from said would we be better 40 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 2: in the United States? Were they more fractious Central Bank, 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 2: Federal Open Market Committee where we see Bailey and Catherine 42 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 2: Mann of City Group in brandeis where we see certain 43 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: presidents and governors at the Fed descent more and more visibly. 44 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 5: I see what you mean. It's going to happen, I think. 45 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 4: And the new administration with Kevin Walsh coming in if 46 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 4: he gets confirmed, of course, the banking is very we're very, 47 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 4: very used to it. 48 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 5: All. 49 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 4: The individual members of Embassy are encouraged to have their 50 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 4: own different views and in the sort of minutes we 51 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,959 Speaker 4: got today all their different views as to where rates 52 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 4: should go and how quickly are all there from each member. 53 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 4: That's something they took on from Ben Bernanke's review just 54 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 4: last year. They implemented those changes to be more transparent 55 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 4: where at the Fed, You're right, it's been much less 56 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 4: of ascent. 57 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 5: Descent are kind of a sort of red sort of. 58 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 4: Headline on Bloomberg terminals and when we get them, but 59 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 4: we've already started to get them with Stephen Myron and 60 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 4: other and Waller, So I think under wall should have tricked. 61 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 4: The hard part for him will be he might want 62 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 4: to cut rates, but maybe the regional governers don't. 63 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 6: So Jordan, when you talk to clients, what do they 64 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 6: feel like the trade is in the fixed income space? 65 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 6: In twenty twenty six, we've got the bank giving and 66 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 6: likely to continue to cut rags here the FED presumably 67 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 6: will continue to cut rates here. 68 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 7: What's the trade in twenty. 69 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 4: Six I think the trade here is to kind of 70 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 4: take the opposite sort of stances to what we've got 71 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 4: into some spaces of last year. So in US rates 72 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 4: it was all about how far they could go in 73 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 4: terms of the neutral rate being three percent. The long 74 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 4: term dots are therefore we should receive, which is going 75 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 4: long US rates on the back of that, that's now 76 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 4: turning the labor market data in the US it should 77 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 4: pick up. 78 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 5: We've already got the. 79 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 4: Growth data storming higher in the data surprises of the US. 80 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: Look at the ism manufacturing this past week. So I 81 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,839 Speaker 4: think the trade is actually to bet on a US 82 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: rebound in growth and therefore in the labor markets as well, 83 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 4: and were higher interest rates in the US to come. 84 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 6: So it's interesting here we can starting to see that 85 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 6: a little bit in the US yield curve. Jordan, the 86 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 6: twos and tens, you know you've got sixty seventy basis 87 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 6: points of steepening. What is that telling you there? 88 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 4: Well, the steepness comes partially from the front end being 89 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 4: quite anchored to the dots. There's still just shy of 90 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 4: two cuts priced him for this year. The long end's 91 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 4: been driven by what's going on with the one big 92 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 4: beautiful bill, the fiscal stillness that we're getting, and also 93 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 4: not just from America but from Japan, from Germany and 94 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 4: other parts of the world. 95 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 5: Everyone's increasing them out there issuing this year. 96 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 4: It's just very difficult for long end yields not to 97 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 4: go higher when you've got the issuance coming out the 98 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 4: way it is and the growth picking upt the same time. 99 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 4: I'm not sure why interest rates should fall. Then you've got, 100 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 4: on top of that, Kevin Walsh's view on the balance sheet, 101 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 4: which is all about reducing the size of it, which 102 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: is active. 103 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 5: Sales of US treasuries. 104 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 4: If he was to do so, that would put further 105 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 4: pressure on yields as well. 106 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 6: Did have it in the European Union here there was 107 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 6: about earlier last year where boy Germany was talking about 108 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 6: really stepping up spending on defense and other parts of 109 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 6: its economy. Maybe a little fall on from some other 110 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 6: parts of Europe. That is that still the feel there 111 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 6: or what's the thought about europ right here? 112 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 4: It's still a feel. The problem is is it in 113 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 4: the price? Is it a stale narrative? Could things turn 114 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,119 Speaker 4: against us? While we've started to get a similar story 115 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 4: in European data surprises. We had a very strong German 116 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 4: factory orders this morning, for example, thirteen percent of year 117 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 4: to date. What we've been waiting for, We've been waiting 118 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 4: to see if this huge defense order through companies like 119 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 4: Lion Mattau for further tanks, drones, planes, etc. 120 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 5: Would it feed through to the data. And what about the. 121 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 4: Infrastructure spending as well, which is five hundred billion euros 122 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 4: over twelve years. 123 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 5: Yes it is, I think, is the answer from the 124 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 5: data so far. 125 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 4: If that carries on the market could revise up its 126 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 4: ECB assumptions and we're talking about hikes being possible really 127 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 4: not this year but next year. 128 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 3: Wow Bloomberg surveillance. 129 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: So as we continue with Jordan Rochester of Missoul, wonderful 130 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 2: team working with Dominic Constant and Stephen Mershudo among others, we. 131 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 3: Welcome all of you across the nation. Good morning on 132 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 3: the Pacific RAM. 133 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 2: Good evening, i should say, on Spotify it's a podcast. 134 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your attention out on the 135 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: Pacific RAM and of course on YouTube podcast as well. Jordan, 136 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 2: I look at where we are and once again, I 137 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 2: sit down. I got got bit dog with a sixty 138 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 2: nine handle, which gets my attention, but far more Jordan Rochester, 139 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: I got a dollar that just won't strengthen. I mean, 140 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 2: I got a ninety seven point eight dx y I 141 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 2: got yen. Excuse me, I got yen backed up to 142 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: one fifty seven weaker yen and all what. I just 143 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,679 Speaker 2: don't see the catalysts to get into a new leg 144 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 2: of dollar weakness. 145 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the FX space is one of the 146 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 4: most difficult sectors to have a strong conviction on. You 147 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 4: onist out there talking about a weeker dollar on the 148 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 4: debasement trade. I subscribe to that, which is, I do 149 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 4: see the sort of real assets outperforming due to the 150 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 4: fiscal and monetary policy we're talking about. 151 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 5: But that's real assets. We'm talking about gold and silver, 152 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 5: and is bitcoin real? Who knows. But when it comes 153 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 5: to when it comes to the. 154 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 4: FX space, which is eure overs the dollar, the dollar 155 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 4: versus the yen, the correlations that we're used to, that 156 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 4: the frameworks that we use to try and understand how 157 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 4: do we make money from this? The broken liberation? They 158 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 4: completely changed it. Donald Trump told basically all the European 159 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 4: investors through other words, of course, to hedge their exposures more. 160 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 4: And so we're having much more dollar selling in foreign exchange, forwards, swaps, options. 161 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 5: However you want to do it. 162 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 4: But what I think is going to happen is the 163 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: dollar is going to rebound in February and we're getting 164 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 4: that dollary in's heading hire into this election. This weekend, 165 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 4: we're having euro dollar four cables falling against the pound. 166 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 4: Why because while I talked about US data surprises rebounding 167 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 4: thanks to the FIST and monetary policy kicking in bigger picture, 168 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 4: I do think the dollar weekens Tom Why global growth? 169 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 5: Where's the recession coming from? I don't see it. 170 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 4: And when you have a global rebound as I think 171 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: we're going to have, typically that's an environment where the 172 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 4: dollar underperforms and risk assets do well. So in the 173 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 4: second half this year we could be looking at your 174 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 4: dollar one twenty two quite easily. 175 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 2: I mean, wow, your meetings are tense. He goes into 176 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: a room with like twelve people. Yeah, and nobody's taken notes, 177 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 2: so just listening. They got their digital lie pads out 178 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: taking Rochester no ites. 179 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 3: What's the number one question you get right now? Jordan Rochester. 180 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 5: Will the Bank Japan hike in April or not? 181 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 4: I think is one of the most common questions, and 182 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: it's one of those ones where it's really up to 183 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 4: dollar yen as to whether they will hike or not. 184 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 4: If we look at the pricing, it's twenty basis points price, 185 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 4: so it's eighty percent probability it's going to happen according 186 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 4: to the market. 187 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 5: We thought for a long time. 188 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 4: July was going to be the base case, but it 189 00:08:55,960 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 4: does each seem that expectations, expectations are shifting forward. And 190 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 4: you want to learn I'd learned some new Japanese phrase 191 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 4: whilst I was in Tokyo last week. If you want 192 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 4: to hear it, go. 193 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 5: More commercial and let's make money. 194 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 3: Let's me. 195 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 7: There we go. 196 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 6: I mean you got to get out of the office 197 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 6: and go see clients a run in the world. That's 198 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 6: what you pick up here. And Jordan, how closely are 199 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 6: European investors following the I guess the upcoming confirmation hearings 200 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 6: of mister Warsh and what it may mean for US 201 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 6: physical policy here? How critical is that to kind of 202 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 6: twenty twenty six views for a lot of your clients. 203 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 5: I think for a lot of them. I think it's done. 204 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 4: Whether Mkowski or Tillis holds it up in the Banking 205 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 4: Senate Committee is kind of for the Wall Street Post 206 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 4: to talk about Wall Street Journal. But I don't think 207 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 4: that it's going to really matter to markets too much 208 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 4: because most people just think eventually the case will probably 209 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 4: be dropped in some way and it will just go through. 210 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 4: I think if Powell hangs on or not is more 211 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 4: of a crucial question for markets rather than will walk 212 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 4: thank you. 213 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 2: So much, thank you, thank you, thank you. Frame that 214 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 2: out Jordan Rochester. What happens if he leaves, What happens 215 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 2: if he stays. 216 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 4: Well, if he stays, he's probably got the attention of 217 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 4: the room, probably more than Kevin Walsh possible, because he's 218 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 4: built the connections of all the other governments. And if 219 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 4: Powell's arguing against the idea of cutting interest rates when 220 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 4: it comes to the June meeting when wash takes over, 221 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 4: that's where you could see a descent for the first time. 222 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 5: I think since Volker, you have to go back to 223 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 5: Volka for. 224 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 4: When you last had the Federal Reserve chair have a 225 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 4: descent go against them. 226 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 5: Now. 227 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 4: If Powell bows out, that means that's another seat that 228 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 4: Trump can nominate somebody for. And then we start and 229 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 4: if Lisa Cook's Supreme Court hearing doesn't go her way, 230 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 4: then we're talking about a board that's highly governed by 231 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 4: Trump appointees, and then things could get more interesting. 232 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester, thank you so much, greatly appreciated this morning 233 00:10:54,320 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 2: with Miszoo fascinating. Stay with us more from Bloomberg's coming 234 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 2: up after this. 235 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 236 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, 237 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 238 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 239 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 2: Danielize with this is Wedbush, of course, coming off the 240 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 2: glory of a Baron's cover showed. Were you surprised by 241 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 2: the Baron's article like they had like a float chart 242 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: of all your business interests? 243 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 3: Are you on speaking terms with Wedbush? Compliance? 244 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 8: Of course? 245 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 9: Look, I mean it's one like look I understand like 246 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 9: the nature of like when you expand opportunities outside just 247 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 9: traditional analysts, it's something where like you know you're breaking 248 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 9: new ground, right, but it's something like if I chew 249 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 9: gum webbush news. 250 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 7: And the reality is is that I. 251 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 9: Get the criticism, but look, it's something like for twenty 252 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 9: five years being bullsh in tech, being bullsh and AI revolution. 253 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 9: It's led to obviously other opportunities, but it's something where 254 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 9: you know, it's I get the crisis. 255 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 2: I want to go back to first principles here. There 256 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 2: was a there's a couple of courses we took on 257 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 2: network effect, on Metcalf's law, on ethernet study here, and 258 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: the answers that devolved into spectacular profits for a very 259 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 2: few Michael Mobison just being iconic on this early work 260 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 2: as well. It's still in play right when I look 261 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 2: at Google's profit machine, it's about Metcalf's law. They're playing 262 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 2: a different rule book and we don't understand it exactly. 263 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 7: I mean. 264 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 9: And that's why, to further your point, if you look 265 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 9: at the cloud growth forty eight percent, you look at Capex, 266 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 9: now that's basically going to be you're. 267 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 7: Really almost doubling. 268 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 9: This just shows that these companies they see the modernization path. 269 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 9: It's happening now. Just investors beg why would you not 270 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 9: slow up? Because they have to accelerate because of the 271 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 9: arms race, that's playing out. So when you look at 272 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 9: earning season the last few weeks, it's further validated that 273 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 9: this is not a bubble. This is an AI revolution. 274 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,599 Speaker 9: The monization's just started. And it's my view like to 275 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 9: view it that software and it's essentially what I'll call 276 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 9: an arm and getting like environment for software. And I 277 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 9: think this is going to be viewed as I think 278 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 9: a time where software names have gotten so over sold. 279 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 9: I'd have to go back twenty five years, maybe two 280 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 9: or three times they've ever seen a moment like this. 281 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 6: So how do you respond to the concern that some 282 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 6: people have that AI posts a fundamental threat to certain 283 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 6: aspects of software, specialized software, application software. 284 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 9: Look, I think on the edges down the road, is 285 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 9: it a headwind? Yeah, But then on the other hand, 286 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 9: like for a salesforce service now fro an Adobe for 287 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 9: large and work that you could argue that AI is 288 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 9: actually a talent, but they just haven't seen the modernization 289 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,599 Speaker 9: yet because it's ultimately the use cases are going to 290 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 9: be well by software and pallunteer being the first one 291 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 9: you say, snowflake, mango or our necks in line. And 292 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 9: I just think the view that software is done that 293 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 9: you're gonna have companies you're that are gonna go away 294 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 9: from a salesforce toward a clod or an anthropic model. 295 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 9: Is just it's it's somewhere between ridiculous to fictional or whatever. 296 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,119 Speaker 2: Are you seeing the major software companies, let's pick on MSFT. 297 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: Are they having conversations at Redman to say we're down 298 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 2: twenty six percent? Do we take depth to buy back 299 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 2: shares and other creative I mean are they are. 300 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 3: They do they want to be opportunistic? Given this AI frenzy? 301 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 9: Well, look, I think this is going to create a 302 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 9: massive m and a cycle in software because to Tom's pointing, 303 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 9: like if you look at the cash flow both on 304 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 9: the on the pe side as well as in the 305 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 9: strategic and you look now where the where these software 306 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 9: comings right, if you think about maintenance ar are you 307 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 9: to basically would have to assume that numbers come down 308 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 9: twenty five percent the next three years not to buy 309 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 9: the sector. 310 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: Danives with this folks worldwide or thrilled day of min 311 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 2: robbers shipping with us later the best in conversation on technology. 312 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 3: Okay, you know where I am on Tesla. 313 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 2: You and I sit up in the food court over cheesus, 314 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 2: I have cheese its Isaay has something. 315 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 7: Great a bullish scar you were wearing too. 316 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 2: Okay, but yeah, But the bottom line, Dan ives, is 317 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 2: there going to take Tesla taking out two vehicles, something 318 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 2: new's going to happen. They're going to run it into 319 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 2: x AI whatever the hell that is, and they're going 320 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 2: to fund it through starlink. Are things in space going 321 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: to make this accounting work? 322 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 9: Well, it's my view that Tesla and SpaceX eventually merge, 323 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 9: I guay. So this is x An, XAI, XAI space. 324 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 2: Is there going to be a legitimate red herring? Is 325 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: there going to be a legitimate process or is just 326 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: musk blather? 327 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 9: No, it's I think it's Jim and Pat. I think 328 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 9: this is all step by step in terms of what's 329 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 9: going to happen. 330 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 7: I think the reality is okay, Like, why would Must. 331 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 9: Do this because essentially when you look at XAI, that's 332 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 9: so much of the AI technology now that's within SpaceX, 333 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 9: SpaceX basically being the vehicle that obviously gets you to space. 334 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 9: It's must view where this he's basically creating his own ecosystem. 335 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 9: You do about circular financing and everything else. He's internally 336 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 9: building this what I would argue is probably going to 337 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 9: be the biggest AI company in the world. 338 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 6: Is this whole new thing, this SpaceX slash xai, is 339 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 6: that gonna go public this year? 340 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 9: Well yeah, I mean I think it's one that would 341 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 9: make a ton of sense for SpaceX to go public. 342 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 9: Then you think about Xai being a key component to that. 343 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 9: I think then the other the thing for investors is 344 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 9: trying to figure out how does this affect Tesla and 345 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 9: when does that cross pollination start. 346 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 3: Okay, bitcoin is sixty nine thousand. 347 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 2: We haven't broken down below, but everybody's paying attention sixty 348 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 2: nine five hundred. The fancy people at cryptos say, where's 349 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: the underlying where's the underlying on the combination of SpaceX, 350 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 2: XAI and Tesla, what's the underlying free cash flow generation? 351 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 9: I mean you look, it's my view, autonomous and robotics 352 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 9: alone for Tesla numbers today. If you've got free cashow, 353 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 9: free cash flow will be up five six acts the 354 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 9: next four or five years. 355 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 7: Just basing that. Then when you actually will, if you. 356 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 9: Actually combine it all, you're essentially looking at something where 357 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 9: they could when you think about the longer term model, 358 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 9: they would generate free cash flow potentia on par with 359 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 9: any of these. 360 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 3: So you're saying, Paul's got any questions. This is my 361 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 3: last one. 362 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 2: Called Alexis, get out the surveillance cork and put it 363 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 2: in my mouth. When I've done with this question, you 364 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 2: got a red herring out right now. Basically there's no 365 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: profit model and it's an innovation hope five years out 366 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 2: is that weix struction. 367 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 9: I mean Xai, let's say a billion dollars a month 368 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 9: or whatever that they're burning. So you but tom My 369 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 9: view is like, it's no different than the one hundred 370 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 9: ey five billion that Google's in a spending cap backs 371 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 9: or Microsoft's doing cap backs right now. You are betting 372 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,400 Speaker 9: on the next two, three, four, five years. Now, does 373 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 9: that is you have? Do you have to be a believer? 374 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 9: And does that impact the near term in terms of 375 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 9: these names? 376 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 7: Of course? 377 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 9: But the view from an investor perspective, it's my view 378 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 9: is that we're in a fourth and ducal revolution. We're 379 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 9: in year three of a ten year buildout. 380 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 6: We've had some great reporting from Bloomberg News on Elon 381 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 6: Musk and SpaceX and Xai and this merger here, and 382 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 6: I think two themes out there. The bulls are saying, hey, 383 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 6: you're putting together the great SpaceX with the arguably the 384 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 6: leading AI company. 385 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 10: Put those two together, what a great story. 386 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 6: Others might say, wait, it kind of feels like SpaceX 387 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 6: is bailing out XAI or vice versa. Do we But 388 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 6: we don't know because we don't know any numbers there. 389 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 7: Do we know? We don't. 390 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 9: I mean, obviously the burn you which which we know 391 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 9: is probably you know, about billion a month. But for SpaceX, 392 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 9: they're getting the AI technology from Xai so that they 393 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 9: ultimately need. If you think about this being what i'll 394 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 9: call it AI play, it was the first step then, 395 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 9: but they eventually go down the aisle with Tesla. 396 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 2: Okay, just just published moments ago. We did this in 397 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 2: real time, folks. We'll make it up as we go, 398 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 2: Dan Eyes. So this was Bush Robert Schiffman, who'll be 399 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 2: with us in the next hour, publishes moments ago. This 400 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 2: is on the credit on the build out of Google 401 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 2: on AI Alphabet now AI Capex poster child. 402 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 3: But risk is low. 403 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 2: He looks at one hundred and twenty seven billion cash balance, 404 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 2: and again, Dan Eyes, I go back to these things 405 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 2: are profit machine like do you say the KPEX is 406 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 2: almost a rounding error spread out over two three five years. 407 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 9: Every hour you're spending in cap backs, you're basically going 408 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 9: to generate forty fifty percent freak ask for in every 409 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 9: hour that you're investing in CA. 410 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 7: I mean, if you if you go through the numbers, 411 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 7: and that's why it's my. 412 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 9: View, you're going to continue to put as much into 413 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 9: this given the cash flow machine that you've seen Alphabet produce. 414 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 9: Would I believe Microsoft is going to produce? And I 415 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 9: think so many other tech companies that are going down 416 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 9: this path and they have no choice but to go 417 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 9: down the path despite maybe like stocks this week. 418 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 7: Or whatever over the last week, this paragraph. 419 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 3: Below is Oracle. 420 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 2: Do you say you've envisioned the Ellisons that gotta at 421 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 2: some point jettison Oracle because they don't have the EBITTA 422 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 2: fund all those hopes. 423 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 9: But I think that's why they did the forty five 424 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 9: to fifty billion. They laid it out in terms of 425 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 9: the transparency of how they're going to raise the capitol. 426 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 9: And I just continue to say, investors, Okay, let's say 427 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 9: Oracle never touched. 428 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 7: Open Ai the three hundred billion. They didn't touch any 429 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 7: of these deals. 430 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 9: Okay, So you're saying, would you spend thirty billion forty 431 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 9: billion in the hopes that you could get five six 432 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 9: hundred billion over the next four or five years. Any 433 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 9: company in the world is going to take that. 434 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 3: Now. That's why like Oracle stock. 435 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 9: Being so such an overhang on this. The math of 436 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 9: it is, this is essentially giving them the opportunity to 437 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 9: change the trajector they're coming become a huge player when 438 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,479 Speaker 9: it comes to you know, the four to five trillion 439 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 9: that's going to be spent. 440 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 7: That's why they're doing it. 441 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 6: Give us some of the solve here in software stocks, 442 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 6: what are your top picks here? 443 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 3: On the weakness look, I. 444 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 9: Think the one that is the most over sold relative 445 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 9: to the install base, free cast flow and where they 446 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 9: sit is Salesforce. Okay, am I saying, like has Bloom 447 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 9: come off to Rose and benioven Salesforce? Is this disruptive 448 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,439 Speaker 9: to the business model? Yes, But to say that the 449 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 9: stock right now is basically trading in almost you have 450 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 9: to assume that this is a structurally broken company, which 451 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 9: is not. And then I'd say cybersecurity looking name my 452 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 9: crowd striking. Then on the hypersceptive look, if you look 453 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 9: at the If you look at the selloff on Microsoft here, 454 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 9: I think it's one of the most head scratching sell 455 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 9: offs that I've seen my twenty sh How. 456 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,439 Speaker 3: Do they respond to that? That's what I want to know. 457 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 3: And they're gonna have their CFO has got to be 458 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 3: who's their CFI? I don't even know? Are you their CFO? 459 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 10: No? 460 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 9: Again, it's it's one where to me, they're going to 461 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 9: have to do something significant here to make a statement 462 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 9: to the market about their stock and about their confidence. 463 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 9: And I think, look, and I think it's ultimately Amyhood. 464 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 9: What does Amy Hoods say to Adella? Are you kidding me? 465 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 9: But Amy Hood, in my opinion, not just in tech, 466 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 9: but across I think I think just across any major 467 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 9: public company is probably top five CFO out there. So 468 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 9: Amyhood's not someone that's just gonna sit here and watch 469 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 9: this and do nothing. 470 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 3: Wait a minute, she went to duke exact problem exactly. 471 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 6: So what is the conversation you're having with clients? 472 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 3: Is it? Is it panic? 473 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 6: Is it I'm selling now and off I'll think about 474 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 6: it later. 475 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 9: It's I mean, I'm hearing from clients I haven't heard 476 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 9: from in a decade, seven years, ten years, because my 477 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 9: mind is like they're that panicked or nervous not to 478 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 9: explain some of these selloffs trying to say something that 479 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 9: they're missing. And my whole point is like booking covering 480 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 9: that's going back to late nineties, like we've been through 481 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 9: times where like whether the it's bubble burst, you know, 482 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 9: financial crisis. This is one is a massive it's a 483 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,640 Speaker 9: structural sell off and software that's unlike anything in terms 484 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 9: of just core structure that I've ever seen, Like. 485 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 2: Okay, in ninety days when Microsoft does Q two, so 486 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 2: like you know, ending March thirty and your wait, thirty 487 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 2: days or forty days, they're gonna come out with the report. 488 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 2: It's the same old, same old cash generation, the. 489 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 9: Same or and I take accelerated relative to what they got. 490 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,159 Speaker 9: I think the only reason this st sold off so 491 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 9: dramatically it's because not all the cap backs is being 492 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 9: allocad the azure, which that's what investors want to see. 493 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 9: And then it was kind of splitting hairs as you're 494 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 9: not having a foreign front of it. And from a 495 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 9: growth perspective, it's at thirty eight thirty nine percent, but 496 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 9: I think that is like missing the overall point the 497 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 9: enterprise AI revolution goes through Redmond. 498 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 7: That's in their core backyard. 499 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 6: So what's the what's the message you have today, which 500 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 6: is hey ride this out or or try to pick. 501 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 7: Winners and losers. 502 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 6: What's the message? 503 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 9: The messages the winners you buy them table pound their levels. 504 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 7: Because it's my view, just like last year we had 505 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 7: Deep Seat. 506 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 9: And Liberation Day and maybe some other sort of you know, geopolitical, 507 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 9: you'll have these moments four or five times in a year. 508 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 9: This is not the end of the AI trade. This 509 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 9: is not a bubble that's burst thing. You remember, the 510 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 9: bears will come out and the usual. To me, it's 511 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 9: like look at her season, look at structure, looking montization 512 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 9: and looking that's that's the reality. But look like when 513 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 9: out in a restaurant last night and the chef comes 514 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 9: out and ask about if he should be buying intact 515 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,880 Speaker 9: it's which actually happened. 516 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 7: It's definitely no, it happened. It happened at an. 517 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,679 Speaker 9: Awesome Italian restaurant that would actually be a very keen 518 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 9: style of Sweeney styles. 519 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 7: But look when that happens, it shows I got. 520 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 2: Fifty seven seconds because Michael Barnet's this timer he's gonna 521 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 2: have a tantrum. 522 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 3: I'm looking at Apple just for you. 523 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 2: I did a log charge of Apple Computer and the 524 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 2: bottom line, folks, is in April of this year, the 525 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 2: world says, shut up, it's gonna die. It's going to 526 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 2: be terrible. And Dan I said, you know, one hundred 527 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 2: and eighty out to two hundred and eighty as well 528 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 2: on a long term trend, it's trading just below trend line. 529 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 3: I mean there's room to move to the upside. What 530 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 3: will be that catalyst? Look at the stock. 531 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 9: Movement the last two three weeks right against the broader 532 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 9: you know tech saf To me, it's just look what 533 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 9: Google's yesterday. 534 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 7: AI is now coming to Coopertina. That's gonna be huge. 535 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 9: I think investors are underestimating what that is going to 536 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 9: mean about monization four Apple, and I think that is 537 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 9: ultimately what it comes down to. You are not factoring 538 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 9: in any premium to AI that goes through Coopatino and 539 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 9: what ultimately is the two point five billion iOS device. 540 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 2: It's like clockwork Saturday, I have to go to an 541 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,560 Speaker 2: Apple store because one of the cherubs on MG my 542 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 2: phone is dead. 543 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 3: That's the reality. 544 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 2: Paul Yep I mean it's just, you know, it's endless 545 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 2: like read by Toys. Dane ives go away. Thank you 546 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 2: so much with Webers. Congratulations on your cover Barons. 547 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 7: Thanks stay with us. 548 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 549 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 550 00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 551 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 552 00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 553 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,479 Speaker 2: I want to show where this was Brown University, and 554 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 2: of course your book on Civics absolutely definitive across the 555 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 2: education of America, Professor Schuller. I want to look at ICE. 556 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,199 Speaker 2: So we had a small matter on September eleventh of 557 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 2: two thousand and one. We had legislation a bit of 558 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 2: a month's later two thousand and two, and in two 559 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 2: thousand and three we merged customs in some justice department. 560 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 2: I ins thing together, and I guess we named it ice. 561 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 2: When did ICE morph from those two original jurisdictions institutions? 562 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 2: I should say, when did it morph into what we 563 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 2: observe today? 564 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 11: Well, I mean Tommy Wright to sort of point out 565 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 11: things also like the Coastguard. When I mean, basically, the 566 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 11: whole idea is sort of internal security against external forces. 567 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 8: That's really what ICE was not ICE, Sorry, I see 568 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 8: when I'm doing it. 569 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 11: What homeland security was supposed to do. And the justification 570 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 11: for homeo security was communication. That there were people who 571 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 11: thought that the two thousand and one tragedy was a 572 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 11: failure of communication across independent agencies that didn't talk to 573 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 11: each other. And so if you are in the same 574 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 11: cabinet department led by a single secretary, you're going to 575 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 11: talk to each other and you're be better coordinated and 576 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:17,919 Speaker 11: that would make the country safer. 577 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 8: That was the rationale. 578 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 11: And so this is what it was always supposed to be, 579 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 11: internal security, but against external forces. So the question is 580 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 11: do you think people who have been living here for 581 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 11: ten years or fifteen years are the external enemy? 582 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,439 Speaker 8: And that's what the tru administration is arguing. 583 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 2: My oldest cash flow, I mean Shanghai, having a beverage 584 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 2: of my choice at the Peace Hotel with cash flow 585 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 2: and Wendy, he's explaining to me the police state of China, 586 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 2: like the three or four levels of police officers on 587 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 2: the streets of Shanghai or wherever have we become China 588 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 2: with our domestic enforcement. 589 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 8: I don't think across the country we've become China. But 590 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 8: I think if you're living. 591 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 11: In cities where you used to walk down the street 592 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 11: and there were police officers that you knew, your local 593 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 11: town or your local county, and maybe a state e 594 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 11: as we call them in Rhode Island on the highway. 595 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 8: You accepted that that's part of what you expected. 596 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 11: You don't expect to mass people with, you know, machine 597 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 11: guns on the street that can stop you and ask. 598 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 8: You who you are. 599 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 11: And I think that is what has really rattled the 600 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 11: American voter, the independence some Republicans in polling and all 601 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 11: Democrats thinking I don't want to live in a country where. 602 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 8: This is possible. 603 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 11: Certainly, the United States government has had surveillance powers over 604 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 11: the last twenty years that are extraordinary. 605 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 8: Ben Franklin would. 606 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 11: Be absolutely appalled at the extent to which this government 607 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 11: can survey any citizen for any reason, but to stop 608 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 11: physically people dragging out of cars ask for identification. 609 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 8: That is not the kind of country America wants to 610 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 8: live in. Sixty three percent of. 611 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 11: America says we don't want this, and so this is 612 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 11: an interesting thing going into the midterms. Tom In twenty eighteen, 613 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 11: it was about Trump, the person Trump. You know, we 614 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 11: don't like Trump. We like Trump, but this is different. 615 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 11: This election is about policy. This election about how the 616 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 11: policy of the trumpministration are affecting your daily life and 617 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 11: your sense of security. And I think that's really where 618 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 11: the sort of presence of Ice and the way they 619 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 11: look with the masks and sort of all the videos 620 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 11: we've seen this is scary. It's scary to people. But 621 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 11: we're not yet China, are Russia? 622 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:24,480 Speaker 8: For that matter? 623 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,960 Speaker 6: What is the political I guess pushback that the administration 624 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 6: is getting now as it relates to homeland security. We've 625 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 6: seen President Trump ordered a partial pullback in Minneapolis. How 626 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 6: are they viewing it these days in DC? 627 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 8: Well, I think you can see from some of the 628 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 8: comments that the President's made. 629 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 11: And we'll hear more from the president and that interview, 630 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 11: it's already been leaked before the Super Bowl, a traditional 631 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 11: presidential interview. But what we're seeing is I think a 632 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 11: difficulty in the White House, Right, are you going to 633 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 11: be Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon or are you going 634 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 11: to be Tom Holman? 635 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 2: Like? 636 00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 8: Who are you going to be? 637 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 11: And what are your policies now, mister President, And he 638 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 11: has really sort of swung to the right, and I 639 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 11: think now he recognizes that this policy could cost him 640 00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 11: not just the House, but the Senate as well, and 641 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 11: he doesn't want to be president with a completely democratic Congress. 642 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,719 Speaker 8: And that's the argument. I think more of the meremadera. 643 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 11: Voices in the White House are saying to him, we 644 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 11: can do this, we don't have to do it this way. 645 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 7: Okay. 646 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 2: So, Wendy Schiller, political advisor inside Baseball, Wendy Schiller, you're 647 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 2: on the team trying to get Susan Collins re elected 648 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 2: in Maine. What is your advice to Senator Collins? 649 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 11: Well, Senator Collins has made an argument, I think to 650 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 11: the President. I wasn't on the phone call, but I 651 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 11: think this is the argument. I'm the chair of the 652 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:43,479 Speaker 11: Appropriations Committee. I can help you hold the Republican Senate. 653 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 11: And if you don't get your your ice folks out 654 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 11: of Maine, I'm going to lose this election. 655 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 8: And if I lose this election. 656 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 11: You can lose Ohio, you can lose North Carolina. 657 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 8: I don't know. Texas is always a pipe. 658 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 11: Dream for the Democrats as far as I'm concerned, but 659 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:58,520 Speaker 11: now they're making noises. 660 00:31:58,800 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 8: So she's basically. 661 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 11: Saying, miss as a president, I'm not just another senator 662 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 11: running in Maine. I'm the lynchpin to your keeping the 663 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 11: Republican Senate. 664 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 8: And I think that's what. 665 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,920 Speaker 11: She has been saying to the White House. And she 666 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 11: probably has to come out stronger against ICE, but getting 667 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 11: them out of Maine is a pretty strong first. 668 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 6: Step for her in reopening the government the mini shutdown, 669 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 6: did the Democrats get what they wanted as it relates 670 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 6: to homeland security and ICE agents. 671 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 11: Well, they didn't get what they wanted necessarily to sort 672 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:28,720 Speaker 11: of you know. 673 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,000 Speaker 8: Now, Christine says they'll wear body. 674 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 11: Cameras, But the idea of sort of the warrants and 675 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 11: stopping people, I think that's still pretty murky. And we 676 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 11: still got people in detention centers, and they're planning to 677 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 11: build another detention center, for example in New Hampshire, and 678 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 11: the governor didn't even know about it, the Republican governor 679 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 11: in New Hampshire. 680 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 8: So I think they. 681 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,680 Speaker 11: Still haven't decided, and that means the Democrats still have 682 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 11: some fodder. 683 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 8: But I tell you what that they did get. 684 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,920 Speaker 11: They got all the funding for research for science and 685 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 11: health restored and increased, and they took away some of 686 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 11: you know, the ability of the administration to cut that funding. 687 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 11: That's a very big win for a lot of Democrats 688 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 11: running in the House who want to say that they've 689 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 11: helped their local communities. 690 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 3: Just one final thing here. 691 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 2: You mentioned sixty three percent against ice or whatever the 692 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:17,240 Speaker 2: coloring is that I believe tells me that thirty percent 693 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 2: plus of Americans are really really happy with ice in 694 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 2: these communities. What is the president's relationship right now with 695 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 2: traditional die hard law and order It. 696 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 3: Sound like Nixon? What is the mess? 697 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,640 Speaker 2: What is the relationship now of the president to law 698 00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 2: and order America? 699 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 11: You know, Tom, I think the president has thirty four 700 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 11: percent of this country. 701 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 8: Period. 702 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 11: They have been loyal since he first ran in twenty sixteen. 703 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 8: They stayed loyal in twenty twenty. 704 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 11: And they came back and stayed loyal in twenty twenty four. 705 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 8: He's got thirty four percent. It's not enough to win 706 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 8: obviously can't run for president. 707 00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,680 Speaker 11: But it's not enough for the Republicans to keep the 708 00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 11: House in the Senate. 709 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 8: Thirty four percent is not going to win you the day. 710 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 11: So you know, he may have these folks, but you know, 711 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 11: you can't win the elections with them, So that's the problem. 712 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 11: He expanded his coalition and now that coalition has contracted significantly, 713 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,839 Speaker 11: and that is really a challenge for the GOP heading 714 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 11: into the midterm. 715 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 8: So this is this is where he is. 716 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 11: And I would also say, law and order in your community, 717 00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 11: no robberies, assaults, murders, rapes, all the horrible things we 718 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,840 Speaker 11: think about is different, I think for Americans than grabbing 719 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,359 Speaker 11: people up the street and deporting them. 720 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 8: I think they're different kinds of law and order, and 721 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 8: I think that's where you're getting some of the differentiation 722 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 8: within the. 723 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 2: Publican Party twenty Shiller Brown hugely valuable. Thank you so much. 724 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,839 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 725 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,359 Speaker 1: You are listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us 726 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,760 Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen 727 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,360 Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 728 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:04,879 Speaker 1: or watch us live on. 729 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 3: YouTube with our newspapers. 730 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,880 Speaker 12: Alexis Christopher's all right, I'm going to start with a 731 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 12: super Bowl story. 732 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 10: We've been doing that. 733 00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 12: That's sort of been the theme for our listeners this week. Right, 734 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 12: we've at least pulled one Super Bowl story for newspapers, 735 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 12: and this one's from the New York Post. 736 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 10: You knew what was going to happen sometime. 737 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 12: We have our first AI related ad on the Super 738 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 12: Bowl this year. It's Anthropics, So it's going to take 739 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 12: a jab at its rival Open Ai in its first 740 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,560 Speaker 12: ever Super Bowl ad. It's blasting the company for introducing 741 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 12: advertising to its chat GPT chatbot. It's something that Anthropic 742 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 12: has promised to never do with its chatbot called Claude. 743 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,399 Speaker 12: Remember when Netflix said no ads ever ever? Yep, yeah, 744 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 12: that went out the window. 745 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:45,719 Speaker 10: You're saying. 746 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,360 Speaker 12: So, so they're going to spend big time thirty second 747 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 12: ad on this year's Super Bowl. We've talked about it 748 00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,040 Speaker 12: more than eight million dollars and you know what that 749 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,919 Speaker 12: turns out to per second? Two hundred and sixty five 750 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,200 Speaker 12: thousand dollars per second. 751 00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 10: I did the matter? 752 00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:58,759 Speaker 3: Oh look at you? 753 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:00,879 Speaker 10: Yeah, I can do that. 754 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 12: So yeah, I mean so among other ads that we're 755 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 12: going to be lots of celebrities in the Super Bowl 756 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:05,880 Speaker 12: ads is here. 757 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 10: You're going to see some AI ads as well. 758 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:08,480 Speaker 5: Okay, all right? 759 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,279 Speaker 12: In the Washington Post today they're telling us what we've 760 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 12: been getting wrong when it comes to exercise, and I think, 761 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 12: if you're like me, you're gonna like this. It turns 762 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 12: out taking the stairs can really do your body a 763 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 12: world of good. So when given the choice between the escalator, 764 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,799 Speaker 12: like we have the the almost circular escalator here, one 765 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 12: of the only in the world, or the stairs, take 766 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,799 Speaker 12: the stairs. Because the World Health Organization now is no 767 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 12: longer specifying a minimum duration of moderate or vigorous aerobic activity, 768 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 12: studies are showing even tiny, regular burst of efforts We're 769 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 12: talking as short as thirty sex seconds can capture much 770 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 12: of the health benefits of the gym. 771 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:52,839 Speaker 3: Whe'res ten thousand steps now? 772 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 6: Are we still doing that? 773 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:54,400 Speaker 5: Are we? 774 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 3: Yeah? 775 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,400 Speaker 10: On your Apple watch? Are you still doing that? 776 00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 3: I still try to do that. 777 00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 10: I mean, look, it's something's better than nothing. 778 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 3: In this way. I mean I must froze to death. 779 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,879 Speaker 12: I still speak some people running I don't know, but wait, 780 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:07,680 Speaker 12: I like this one just to give people out there 781 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,320 Speaker 12: like myself some hope. Climbing two to three flights of 782 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,919 Speaker 12: stairs just a few times a day lowers the risk 783 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 12: of dying by forty percent. 784 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,280 Speaker 10: Wow, do you need more incentives? Up the stairs. 785 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 3: Where did they come up with having a bag of 786 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 3: cheese its today? How much does that? 787 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:24,759 Speaker 1: Well? 788 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 12: Maybe if you eat the jesuits while you're walking up 789 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 12: the stairs, all right. 790 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 10: And then this one, this is a fun one. 791 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 12: So it's from the Hollywood Reporter about a Christie's auction 792 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 12: next month with some iconic memorabilia. So this collection belonged 793 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:43,320 Speaker 12: to the late Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Ursay. And here 794 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,839 Speaker 12: are just a few of the items. Sylvester Stallone's handwritten 795 00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 12: script notebook from Rocky that's pretty cool, the volleyball that 796 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,399 Speaker 12: kept Tom Hanks company in the film cast Away Your Mother, 797 00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 12: Wilson Wilson very good. And Ringo Star's drumhead from the 798 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 12: Beatles debut on The Ed Sullivan Show. And I've a 799 00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 12: quick story here. I interviewed Ringo years ago when I 800 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,719 Speaker 12: was at CBS when he was touring with his all 801 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 12: star band, and we referred to the Beatles as his 802 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 12: quote other band. I thought that was kind of cute. 803 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,680 Speaker 12: By the way, Ringo is still touring. He's got like 804 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 12: twelve to twour days. This here, it's crazy. So look, 805 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 12: I know you're gonna want to start bidding on this guys. 806 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 12: It's going to start opening the online bids March third. 807 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,760 Speaker 12: They're expecting to make over forty million dollars from this collection. 808 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 12: It's also free if you're in the city. It's free 809 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,080 Speaker 12: to the public. You can go look at the display 810 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:32,839 Speaker 12: at Christie's. I'm going to make some time to do that. 811 00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 2: Okay, very cool, Okay, thanks, any so, let's starve the newspapers. 812 00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 813 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 814 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,400 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 815 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:53,360 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 816 00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,800 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 817 00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,759 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.