WEBVTT - You Won't See Russia Relent: Mike Lyons Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>So we talked about this some yesterday as the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>announced they're pulling out of a Curson and the number

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<v Speaker 1>of headlines, because I was looking for a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>information on this yesterday, all the headlines said roughly the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing. It's the biggest setback for Putin since the

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<v Speaker 1>war started, or at least since he tried to go

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<v Speaker 1>into Kiev. Uh, it's a disaster for the Russian military.

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<v Speaker 1>We thought we ought to talk to somebody about how

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<v Speaker 1>big a deal this is. Indeed, and Mike Lyons military

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<v Speaker 1>analysts joins US. Mike served with various military organizations both

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<v Speaker 1>the US and Europe throughout his career. On his a

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<v Speaker 1>well known commentator on a number of networks. Et STERA, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir, Hey, guys, great to be with

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<v Speaker 1>you this morning. Thank you, it's great to have you.

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<v Speaker 1>What was your reaction to the news that it was

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<v Speaker 1>announced on high that the Russians were withdrawing from Curson. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think actually Russia avoided the disaster, so one would

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<v Speaker 1>have been a disaster. Is there on the on the

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<v Speaker 1>western side of the Nembro River, and they had anywhere

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<v Speaker 1>from twenty to three thousand troops in outside of the river,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think what would have been a bigger disaster

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<v Speaker 1>if those troops surrendered and then then you have a

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<v Speaker 1>real Russian problem. So Russia, it looks like they're finally

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<v Speaker 1>getting general officers that are kind of getting it understanding

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<v Speaker 1>the situation on the grounds. Wants taken nine months, but

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<v Speaker 1>in order to you know, kind of save the troops

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<v Speaker 1>and fight for their day, they got to bring them

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<v Speaker 1>to the eastern side of that river, knowing full well

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian military doesn't have any capability to conduct a

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<v Speaker 1>military type river crossing in an offensive operation. So Russia

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<v Speaker 1>general says, we're gonna save these troops, We're gonna bring

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<v Speaker 1>them back here, and now the long war is on

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<v Speaker 1>for the wintertime to just kind of shut things down.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that Russia averted a disaster, and while

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<v Speaker 1>it does look like defeat on their side, it really

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<v Speaker 1>is going to save Russian troops for a future battle,

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<v Speaker 1>of which you know, Ukraine still just doesn't have enough men. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's interesting to me how many things have happened through

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<v Speaker 1>this whole campaign that aren't any different than if we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about war a thousand years ago, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>getting to the other bank of the river before winter.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's that's some classic old timy military stuff

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<v Speaker 1>right there. Yeah. Yeah. For all the technology and precision

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<v Speaker 1>bombing and all kinds of things, that does come down

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<v Speaker 1>to geography. And you know, army guys like myself always

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<v Speaker 1>look at that as well, and this is what what's

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<v Speaker 1>what they're trying to do, and it's it's it's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>clear that you've got to save these troops to fight

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<v Speaker 1>them for another day. I mean, look, Russia is gonna Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>What that means is they've got this kind of fighting

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<v Speaker 1>in their DNA for the last hundred years and the

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<v Speaker 1>last thousand years. They're not going to stop there. They're

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<v Speaker 1>going to continue to use what weapons they have to

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<v Speaker 1>to strike deep into keep. They're going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>try to take out infrastructure. Um, you know, the weather,

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<v Speaker 1>the weather in Ukraine, there's not tundra, it's not Moscow,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not this. You know, they're gonna like freeze them out.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess I had a good analogy yesterday. I was

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<v Speaker 1>talking to a friend of mine who we said, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like, uh, you know southern Illinois, you know

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<v Speaker 1>Kentucky weather in the winter, it gets called but it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of survivable, so you know, there's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to be this this challenge. Ukraine can kind of sort

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<v Speaker 1>get through this. You know, I'm talking another guy like

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday and another uh you know, high ranking guy we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about to where this thing is going, and

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like you know, Q two of next year,

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<v Speaker 1>at some point these both sides will be just exhausted

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<v Speaker 1>and perhaps um NO will start to negotiate, but you're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to see Russia quit at least through the winter. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>so just to clarify then, I think you've made this point.

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<v Speaker 1>The withdrawal from Cissan, it should not be read as

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of trend or sign of weakness per se.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just a reasonably intelligent strategic move. Yeah, exactly. And

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<v Speaker 1>we want to prop up the Ukraine side. We want

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<v Speaker 1>to obviously see them do well. They're they're on their

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<v Speaker 1>the right cause for for freedom and justice and the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians are the bad guys here. But the Russia is

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<v Speaker 1>just doing what they have to do in order to

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<v Speaker 1>fight for another day. So again I don't look at

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<v Speaker 1>this as their defeating and I'm sure they're not telling

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<v Speaker 1>their their troops that they're they're they're they're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>make basically save twenty tho troops, because if twenty troops

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<v Speaker 1>surrender on the east side of that river, that's the disaster,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that would be something that would be the big

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<v Speaker 1>victory that Ukraine then could claim. Well, I'm thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>all the times that you know, Grant pulled back to

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<v Speaker 1>regroup and just you know, kept at it, um, referring

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<v Speaker 1>to the Civil War. Um not he listens, asked Grant,

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<v Speaker 1>not Hugh Grant, clarify exactly. Um. Uh So. I guess

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<v Speaker 1>that explains why it was announced, because when I heard

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<v Speaker 1>it yesterday, I thought, why are the Russians announcing this

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<v Speaker 1>with you know, um, not glee, but certainly with with

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<v Speaker 1>such confidence. Well, I think you've explained it now, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and and and so looking at other ways, like in

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<v Speaker 1>normally in a regular military operation, now the Ukraine's on

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<v Speaker 1>the offense, they would call this pursuit operations. But but

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<v Speaker 1>that pursued stops at that river. They don't have that capability.

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<v Speaker 1>They'd have to cross that river with three times the

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<v Speaker 1>amount of men in order to have any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>assured success to try to do that. And they just

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<v Speaker 1>don't have that kind of capability that the West will

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<v Speaker 1>continue to support them, no question about it, and that'll

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<v Speaker 1>that'll last for a while. But I think you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>see a real stop in some of the fighting there

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<v Speaker 1>in the southern region. So I find myself curious, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>if the United States UH was tasked with crossing that

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<v Speaker 1>river and doing what needed to be done, what would

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<v Speaker 1>that look like logistically and what is it the the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians lack. Yeah, it's good question. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of it though, is we wouldn't put ourselves in that

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<v Speaker 1>place because we would have now looked to taken that

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<v Speaker 1>position across the river already. We would have prepped that

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<v Speaker 1>that area, and we would have tried to have cornered

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<v Speaker 1>them before our enemy escaped. I mean that that would

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<v Speaker 1>have been our commander's intent. But they just again don't

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<v Speaker 1>have that kind of manpower to do that, So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they were not able to take advantage of something that

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<v Speaker 1>we would have done. We would have had the capability

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<v Speaker 1>in order to to really surround those twenty tho troops

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<v Speaker 1>and try to make them surrender. But now if we

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<v Speaker 1>had to do that, um, it would take months of

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<v Speaker 1>planning and it would likely not. We wouldn't do it

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<v Speaker 1>right away either, and given our our military um kind

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<v Speaker 1>of what we do, it's it's old fashioned, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>ribbon bridges, it's old fashioned, people up front, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>getting shot at its old fashioned. Take storm in the

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<v Speaker 1>beaches at Normandy. I mean this is there's no kind

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<v Speaker 1>of technology that's gonna do that. It's gonna take brave

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<v Speaker 1>people in order to get out in front and face,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, face the enemy and a lot of fire.

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<v Speaker 1>Well that's really interesting. So even if the mighty advanced,

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<v Speaker 1>well funded US military we're going to try to cross

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<v Speaker 1>that river, it would take months and planning and to

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<v Speaker 1>to pull it off. Yeah, we probably wouldn't do it

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<v Speaker 1>until the springtime. Interesting, we'd put people in place, and

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<v Speaker 1>we would we wouldn't even try. I would like your

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<v Speaker 1>reaction to this headline. This is from the Wall Street Journal,

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<v Speaker 1>But I saw a number of places US refuses advanced

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<v Speaker 1>drones for Ukraine to avoid escalation. The Biden administration won't

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<v Speaker 1>give Ukraine the Gray Eagles, despite please from Kiev and

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<v Speaker 1>a bipartisan group of members of Congress. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>feel about that? Are are we are we only arguing

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<v Speaker 1>with ourselves on this whole escalation thing, or does that

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<v Speaker 1>make sense to you? Well, no, I think we have

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<v Speaker 1>to be careful on escalation and we're doing everything we

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<v Speaker 1>can to try to keep the playing field level, but

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna we can't risk giving them something that Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>decides to pour over the border into Russia. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to that would escalate it quickly. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>why they still really don't have patriots, they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>some of the eight tacoms, they don't have really the

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<v Speaker 1>long range missile systems, because they believe that Ukraine would

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<v Speaker 1>use them to its inside of Russia, that that would

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<v Speaker 1>trigger then Russia maybe lear into the Baltic States, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>doing something. And they're getting a trilier every day, no

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<v Speaker 1>question about that. But but they're in it for the

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<v Speaker 1>long run. I mean, they could be like the Chinese.

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<v Speaker 1>They're they're gonna put a long run. This could be

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<v Speaker 1>two to three years at this point um from their perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>So I agree with that. I don't think we should

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<v Speaker 1>be giving them things that that would likely tip the

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<v Speaker 1>balance so far on their favor, or potentially be crossing

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<v Speaker 1>that border. That's just a no go. So listen, Mike.

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<v Speaker 1>I know your specialty is a military and analysis and

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<v Speaker 1>you're not like part of a Russian study think tank,

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<v Speaker 1>But what's your sense based on what you've heard about

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian home front, the domestic approval for the war,

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<v Speaker 1>the support and and doesn't matter at this point. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think it matters. I think, um, with a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and sixty plus million people Russia and eleven times zones,

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<v Speaker 1>Russia grabs people from all over its its its geographies

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<v Speaker 1>and only has to bring a couple hundred thousand of

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<v Speaker 1>them to the battles to make a difference. And so

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<v Speaker 1>why you've got TV reporters and mosque gown There might

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<v Speaker 1>be protests going on there. There's places well east of

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<v Speaker 1>that that I have no idea what's going on. That

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<v Speaker 1>just gets told to the fight for the fatherland and

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<v Speaker 1>they can, you know, can show up there. What what

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<v Speaker 1>Russia should be doing right now is training divisions. They

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<v Speaker 1>should be training soldiers at a time if they if

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<v Speaker 1>they want to win this and go back on the offensive,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to have to do that, take the next

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<v Speaker 1>six months and do that. Instead, they've been putting tropes

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<v Speaker 1>in piecemeal, one at a time, a few at a time,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not proven to be effective because they're not

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<v Speaker 1>really well trained. So they still have tremendous capability, and

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<v Speaker 1>they still have all that infrastructure, They still have all

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<v Speaker 1>of that ready to go. And I don't think you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see this thing, you know, explode from within it.

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<v Speaker 1>They're gonna still it's gonna go on for at least

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<v Speaker 1>another six months if not more great stuff, really interesting

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<v Speaker 1>military analystm Mike clients there. Mike, thanks so much for

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<v Speaker 1>the time. Thanks, thanks for me