Speaker 1: So we talked about this some yesterday as the Russians
Speaker 1: announced they're pulling out of a Curson and the number
Speaker 1: of headlines, because I was looking for a lot of
Speaker 1: information on this yesterday, all the headlines said roughly the
Speaker 1: same thing. It's the biggest setback for Putin since the
Speaker 1: war started, or at least since he tried to go
Speaker 1: into Kiev. Uh, it's a disaster for the Russian military.
Speaker 1: We thought we ought to talk to somebody about how
Speaker 1: big a deal this is. Indeed, and Mike Lyons military
Speaker 1: analysts joins US. Mike served with various military organizations both
Speaker 1: the US and Europe throughout his career. On his a
Speaker 1: well known commentator on a number of networks. Et STERA, Mike,
Speaker 1: how are you, sir, Hey, guys, great to be with
Speaker 1: you this morning. Thank you, it's great to have you.
Speaker 1: What was your reaction to the news that it was
Speaker 1: announced on high that the Russians were withdrawing from Curson. Well,
Speaker 1: I think actually Russia avoided the disaster, so one would
Speaker 1: have been a disaster. Is there on the on the
Speaker 1: western side of the Nembro River, and they had anywhere
Speaker 1: from twenty to three thousand troops in outside of the river,
Speaker 1: and I think what would have been a bigger disaster
Speaker 1: if those troops surrendered and then then you have a
Speaker 1: real Russian problem. So Russia, it looks like they're finally
Speaker 1: getting general officers that are kind of getting it understanding
Speaker 1: the situation on the grounds. Wants taken nine months, but
Speaker 1: in order to you know, kind of save the troops
Speaker 1: and fight for their day, they got to bring them
Speaker 1: to the eastern side of that river, knowing full well
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian military doesn't have any capability to conduct a
Speaker 1: military type river crossing in an offensive operation. So Russia
Speaker 1: general says, we're gonna save these troops, We're gonna bring
Speaker 1: them back here, and now the long war is on
Speaker 1: for the wintertime to just kind of shut things down.
Speaker 1: So I think that Russia averted a disaster, and while
Speaker 1: it does look like defeat on their side, it really
Speaker 1: is going to save Russian troops for a future battle,
Speaker 1: of which you know, Ukraine still just doesn't have enough men. Well,
Speaker 1: it's interesting to me how many things have happened through
Speaker 1: this whole campaign that aren't any different than if we
Speaker 1: were talking about war a thousand years ago, you know,
Speaker 1: getting to the other bank of the river before winter.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's some classic old timy military stuff
Speaker 1: right there. Yeah. Yeah. For all the technology and precision
Speaker 1: bombing and all kinds of things, that does come down
Speaker 1: to geography. And you know, army guys like myself always
Speaker 1: look at that as well, and this is what what's
Speaker 1: what they're trying to do, and it's it's it's pretty
Speaker 1: clear that you've got to save these troops to fight
Speaker 1: them for another day. I mean, look, Russia is gonna Russia.
Speaker 1: What that means is they've got this kind of fighting
Speaker 1: in their DNA for the last hundred years and the
Speaker 1: last thousand years. They're not going to stop there. They're
Speaker 1: going to continue to use what weapons they have to
Speaker 1: to strike deep into keep. They're going to continue to
Speaker 1: try to take out infrastructure. Um, you know, the weather,
Speaker 1: the weather in Ukraine, there's not tundra, it's not Moscow,
Speaker 1: it's not this. You know, they're gonna like freeze them out.
Speaker 1: I guess I had a good analogy yesterday. I was
Speaker 1: talking to a friend of mine who we said, it's
Speaker 1: kind of like, uh, you know southern Illinois, you know
Speaker 1: Kentucky weather in the winter, it gets called but it's
Speaker 1: it's kind of survivable, so you know, there's not going
Speaker 1: to be this this challenge. Ukraine can kind of sort
Speaker 1: get through this. You know, I'm talking another guy like
Speaker 1: yesterday and another uh you know, high ranking guy we
Speaker 1: were talking about to where this thing is going, and
Speaker 1: it looks like you know, Q two of next year,
Speaker 1: at some point these both sides will be just exhausted
Speaker 1: and perhaps um NO will start to negotiate, but you're
Speaker 1: not going to see Russia quit at least through the winter. Well,
Speaker 1: so just to clarify then, I think you've made this point.
Speaker 1: The withdrawal from Cissan, it should not be read as
Speaker 1: some sort of trend or sign of weakness per se.
Speaker 1: It's just a reasonably intelligent strategic move. Yeah, exactly. And
Speaker 1: we want to prop up the Ukraine side. We want
Speaker 1: to obviously see them do well. They're they're on their
Speaker 1: the right cause for for freedom and justice and the
Speaker 1: Russians are the bad guys here. But the Russia is
Speaker 1: just doing what they have to do in order to
Speaker 1: fight for another day. So again I don't look at
Speaker 1: this as their defeating and I'm sure they're not telling
Speaker 1: their their troops that they're they're they're they're trying to
Speaker 1: make basically save twenty tho troops, because if twenty troops
Speaker 1: surrender on the east side of that river, that's the disaster,
Speaker 1: that's that would be something that would be the big
Speaker 1: victory that Ukraine then could claim. Well, I'm thinking about
Speaker 1: all the times that you know, Grant pulled back to
Speaker 1: regroup and just you know, kept at it, um, referring
Speaker 1: to the Civil War. Um not he listens, asked Grant,
Speaker 1: not Hugh Grant, clarify exactly. Um. Uh So. I guess
Speaker 1: that explains why it was announced, because when I heard
Speaker 1: it yesterday, I thought, why are the Russians announcing this
Speaker 1: with you know, um, not glee, but certainly with with
Speaker 1: such confidence. Well, I think you've explained it now, yeah,
Speaker 1: and and and so looking at other ways, like in
Speaker 1: normally in a regular military operation, now the Ukraine's on
Speaker 1: the offense, they would call this pursuit operations. But but
Speaker 1: that pursued stops at that river. They don't have that capability.
Speaker 1: They'd have to cross that river with three times the
Speaker 1: amount of men in order to have any kind of
Speaker 1: assured success to try to do that. And they just
Speaker 1: don't have that kind of capability that the West will
Speaker 1: continue to support them, no question about it, and that'll
Speaker 1: that'll last for a while. But I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a real stop in some of the fighting there
Speaker 1: in the southern region. So I find myself curious, Mike,
Speaker 1: if the United States UH was tasked with crossing that
Speaker 1: river and doing what needed to be done, what would
Speaker 1: that look like logistically and what is it the the
Speaker 1: Ukrainians lack. Yeah, it's good question. I think a lot
Speaker 1: of it though, is we wouldn't put ourselves in that
Speaker 1: place because we would have now looked to taken that
Speaker 1: position across the river already. We would have prepped that
Speaker 1: that area, and we would have tried to have cornered
Speaker 1: them before our enemy escaped. I mean that that would
Speaker 1: have been our commander's intent. But they just again don't
Speaker 1: have that kind of manpower to do that, So you know,
Speaker 1: they were not able to take advantage of something that
Speaker 1: we would have done. We would have had the capability
Speaker 1: in order to to really surround those twenty tho troops
Speaker 1: and try to make them surrender. But now if we
Speaker 1: had to do that, um, it would take months of
Speaker 1: planning and it would likely not. We wouldn't do it
Speaker 1: right away either, and given our our military um kind
Speaker 1: of what we do, it's it's old fashioned, you know,
Speaker 1: ribbon bridges, it's old fashioned, people up front, you know,
Speaker 1: getting shot at its old fashioned. Take storm in the
Speaker 1: beaches at Normandy. I mean this is there's no kind
Speaker 1: of technology that's gonna do that. It's gonna take brave
Speaker 1: people in order to get out in front and face,
Speaker 1: you know, face the enemy and a lot of fire.
Speaker 1: Well that's really interesting. So even if the mighty advanced,
Speaker 1: well funded US military we're going to try to cross
Speaker 1: that river, it would take months and planning and to
Speaker 1: to pull it off. Yeah, we probably wouldn't do it
Speaker 1: until the springtime. Interesting, we'd put people in place, and
Speaker 1: we would we wouldn't even try. I would like your
Speaker 1: reaction to this headline. This is from the Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 1: But I saw a number of places US refuses advanced
Speaker 1: drones for Ukraine to avoid escalation. The Biden administration won't
Speaker 1: give Ukraine the Gray Eagles, despite please from Kiev and
Speaker 1: a bipartisan group of members of Congress. How do you
Speaker 1: feel about that? Are are we are we only arguing
Speaker 1: with ourselves on this whole escalation thing, or does that
Speaker 1: make sense to you? Well, no, I think we have
Speaker 1: to be careful on escalation and we're doing everything we
Speaker 1: can to try to keep the playing field level, but
Speaker 1: we're gonna we can't risk giving them something that Ukraine
Speaker 1: decides to pour over the border into Russia. I think
Speaker 1: that's going to that would escalate it quickly. And that's
Speaker 1: why they still really don't have patriots, they don't have
Speaker 1: some of the eight tacoms, they don't have really the
Speaker 1: long range missile systems, because they believe that Ukraine would
Speaker 1: use them to its inside of Russia, that that would
Speaker 1: trigger then Russia maybe lear into the Baltic States, maybe
Speaker 1: doing something. And they're getting a trilier every day, no
Speaker 1: question about that. But but they're in it for the
Speaker 1: long run. I mean, they could be like the Chinese.
Speaker 1: They're they're gonna put a long run. This could be
Speaker 1: two to three years at this point um from their perspective.
Speaker 1: So I agree with that. I don't think we should
Speaker 1: be giving them things that that would likely tip the
Speaker 1: balance so far on their favor, or potentially be crossing
Speaker 1: that border. That's just a no go. So listen, Mike.
Speaker 1: I know your specialty is a military and analysis and
Speaker 1: you're not like part of a Russian study think tank,
Speaker 1: But what's your sense based on what you've heard about
Speaker 1: the Russian home front, the domestic approval for the war,
Speaker 1: the support and and doesn't matter at this point. I
Speaker 1: don't think it matters. I think, um, with a hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty plus million people Russia and eleven times zones,
Speaker 1: Russia grabs people from all over its its its geographies
Speaker 1: and only has to bring a couple hundred thousand of
Speaker 1: them to the battles to make a difference. And so
Speaker 1: why you've got TV reporters and mosque gown There might
Speaker 1: be protests going on there. There's places well east of
Speaker 1: that that I have no idea what's going on. That
Speaker 1: just gets told to the fight for the fatherland and
Speaker 1: they can, you know, can show up there. What what
Speaker 1: Russia should be doing right now is training divisions. They
Speaker 1: should be training soldiers at a time if they if
Speaker 1: they want to win this and go back on the offensive,
Speaker 1: they're going to have to do that, take the next
Speaker 1: six months and do that. Instead, they've been putting tropes
Speaker 1: in piecemeal, one at a time, a few at a time,
Speaker 1: and it's not proven to be effective because they're not
Speaker 1: really well trained. So they still have tremendous capability, and
Speaker 1: they still have all that infrastructure, They still have all
Speaker 1: of that ready to go. And I don't think you're
Speaker 1: gonna see this thing, you know, explode from within it.
Speaker 1: They're gonna still it's gonna go on for at least
Speaker 1: another six months if not more great stuff, really interesting
Speaker 1: military analystm Mike clients there. Mike, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: the time. Thanks, thanks for me