WEBVTT - Markets Weekly: Inflation Falls, Wage Growth Cools, and Bets on BOE Cuts

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Merton Talks Money Market rap where we

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and

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<v Speaker 2>what's driving them. I'm join Stebick, senior reporting author of

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<v Speaker 2>the Money Distilled newsletter. Merion is offer on the slope

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<v Speaker 2>somewhere hopefully not falling over. So I'm stepping into lead

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<v Speaker 2>this week's market debrief and with me in the studio

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<v Speaker 2>is always is Bloomberg Increasingly as always is a Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Opinions market sash and a new guests. So from our

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<v Speaker 2>Marcus Today team, Morwenia Conium, thanks for joining us this

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<v Speaker 2>week more whena and thank you once again Marcus. Very

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<v Speaker 2>good of you as always. And I thought, actually we'd

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<v Speaker 2>start with Morewena because so Morwena goes. You need watch

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<v Speaker 2>this blog on the Bloomberg website in markets today and

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<v Speaker 2>this is the basically the ruling market report and more

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<v Speaker 2>when there's one of the great reporters on there and

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<v Speaker 2>has been covered closely this week. So I just wanted

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<v Speaker 2>to see what's the thing that stood out to you

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<v Speaker 2>more was the big story this week? More inflation a haha.

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<v Speaker 3>Started off on Tuesday when we had labor market data

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<v Speaker 3>which showed wage growth slowing, the pace of increases slowing

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<v Speaker 3>a lot more than had been expected. That put the

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<v Speaker 3>wind and sales of those who are looking for the

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<v Speaker 3>Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner rather than later,

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<v Speaker 3>because obviously if wages aren't increasing as fast, then that

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<v Speaker 3>suggests that that pressure and inflation is coming down. And

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<v Speaker 3>we actually saw markets adjusting their bets on interest rate

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<v Speaker 3>cuts from the Bank of England to fully pricing in

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<v Speaker 3>at one point for April and over sort of seventy

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<v Speaker 3>percent chance of that happening as soon as March. What

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<v Speaker 3>we thought was going to be the really big story

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<v Speaker 3>was actually inflation data on Wednesday CPI reading, that is

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<v Speaker 3>the final CPI reading before the March interest rate decision

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<v Speaker 3>from the Bank of England. It was expected to show

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<v Speaker 3>inflation had called, and it did, but the reading was

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<v Speaker 3>actually in line with expectations. There are a few pockets

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<v Speaker 3>of things that were slightly higher than we'd have liked

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<v Speaker 3>to have seen, but it really did solidify that narrative

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<v Speaker 3>of disinflation. Didn't see a huge change in what traders

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<v Speaker 3>were expecting from the Bank of England, but it certainly didn't.

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<v Speaker 3>Also what had already happened the day before. We've seen

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<v Speaker 3>the pound therefore coming down this week quite substantially, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's actually been added to today by policymaker Catherine Mann

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<v Speaker 3>saying that the inflation was better than she hoped it

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<v Speaker 3>would be, which suggests that the balance may well be

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<v Speaker 3>in favor of a rate cut very very soon.

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<v Speaker 2>I got this sense, certainly from just the vebes of

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<v Speaker 2>the last meeting. They basically Andrew Bailey is now looking

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<v Speaker 2>for an excuse to join the dovish side, and the

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<v Speaker 2>blank in general is no more freaked out about the

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<v Speaker 2>employment market than as a bit inflation. I don't know, Marcus,

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<v Speaker 2>you've been talked about. There's quite a lot recently in

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<v Speaker 2>the podcast. You think they're behind, don't you completely?

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<v Speaker 1>And I think I think they should have cut last

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<v Speaker 1>week or whatever it was, for every fifth part of me.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think the reason they didn't was they hadn't

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<v Speaker 1>prepped it. But I think Bailey was literally needs an

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<v Speaker 1>excuse not to cut. I think man as we want

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<v Speaker 1>of saying, would almost go fifty basis points now. She's

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<v Speaker 1>quite curial. I definitely think Taylor would, and probably so

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<v Speaker 1>dingerous so I think they will almost certainly cut on

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<v Speaker 1>Mars the nineteenth. I think they will cut again, possibly

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<v Speaker 1>the next meeting, but certainly by June, and I expect

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<v Speaker 1>a further one later than the year. I've for that,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that they've they've got, they missed the boat.

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<v Speaker 1>They made a policy mistake. I don't know what Hugh

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<v Speaker 1>pill is on. He thinks indistrates should be higher. So

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<v Speaker 1>the one to watch is Clailon Bardelli, I think, who

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<v Speaker 1>is quite hawkish, and she actually moved much more to

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<v Speaker 1>neutral last time around, so I wouldn't be surprised to

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<v Speaker 1>see a seven two vote even for a cut. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got we've got some serious problems and youth unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>is coming front and center everywhere. I mean, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>really trust any of the OECD data, however, when it's useful,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll choose it. And this time around they're actually saying

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<v Speaker 1>that youth unemployment in the UK has actually risen above

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<v Speaker 1>the EU average. That is shocking, and it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>down to this current government, but this current gol is

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<v Speaker 1>making it worse, and largely as it's coming from all

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<v Speaker 1>angles against ractual reason, it's including the ifs are saying

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<v Speaker 1>that minimum wage rises, and particularly this sort of eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>year old. You know, by upping minimum wages for eighteen years,

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<v Speaker 1>it's price to the matter of the jobs market. We

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<v Speaker 1>all know the graduate situation is pretty poor, but the

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen to twenty five bucket is in unnecessary stress. There

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<v Speaker 1>are lots of medical reasons apparently about it. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think the government is going to have to and will

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<v Speaker 1>backtrack on this very soon, I think.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, how do you think that may occur? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>do you think they're all because part of those too

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<v Speaker 2>the shoe see I don't know when is that the

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<v Speaker 2>minimum wage itself is very high. It's one of the

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<v Speaker 2>highest in the world relative to the median wage, so

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<v Speaker 2>it's about sixty six percent, which is the kind of target.

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<v Speaker 2>But obviously people don't consider that that's much much higher

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<v Speaker 2>in the northeast of England than it is in London,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, But that there's also this other issue of them.

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<v Speaker 2>Basically there's a lower minimum wage for eighteen year olds

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<v Speaker 2>than there is for twenty five year olds, but they've

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<v Speaker 2>started to harmonize that. So basically it's going to cost

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<v Speaker 2>you almost the same.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's much more expensive to hard people anyway. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and then this is the point that people who are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be mostly joining will be the younger ones

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<v Speaker 1>coming in as trainees or whatever you want to call it.

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<v Speaker 1>But particularly in hospitality, in retail, and even in construction,

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<v Speaker 1>and those areas are getting killed.

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<v Speaker 3>I was going to say the increased national insurance and

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<v Speaker 3>employers in the budget before last mostly impacted those kind

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<v Speaker 3>of businesses which have a lot of employees, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>all of whom they now who may be near at

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<v Speaker 3>the minimum wage, they're going to have to pay more

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<v Speaker 3>on that. But also the national insurance contributions going up,

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<v Speaker 3>and so it seems to be impacting the same group

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<v Speaker 3>of people.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we're having what's such a strange market. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>so much people getting fired. Its employers having been sort

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<v Speaker 1>of holding on to employees' post pandemic, worried they wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be a replacement, are now not hiring. It's it's a

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<v Speaker 1>lack of hiring which is coming through. And therefore as

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<v Speaker 1>the youth come through and we'll look for jobs, there

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<v Speaker 1>aren't the jobs there.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, just an interest because on this, because

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<v Speaker 2>I do think this is quite interesting, because there's that

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<v Speaker 2>thing where Okay, so the economy is in a sticky situation,

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<v Speaker 2>but it feels as though if we get interest rate,

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<v Speaker 2>it's coming through, and if the government doesn't keep going

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<v Speaker 2>in the direction is being going in, then there's still

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<v Speaker 2>a chance to perceive things or ton things that don't

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<v Speaker 2>make this better this year. I don't know if you

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<v Speaker 2>would you think, Mawena.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's difficult to backtrack on things that they've

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<v Speaker 3>announced as their planship policies fifteen.

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<v Speaker 1>I think let got on new turns.

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<v Speaker 3>That's true, but usually after usually before they actually announced them.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it feels like they've announced sorts of things

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<v Speaker 3>and you turned on them, but usually, you know. I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's a tricky one. And whether we see you know,

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<v Speaker 3>waging inflation continuing to sort of come down overall probably

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<v Speaker 3>also kind of makes the difference as to expectations at

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<v Speaker 3>the top of the pile. So I don't know whether

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<v Speaker 3>it's something that they can easily resolve. You can't stop

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<v Speaker 3>people kind of progressing through life, graduating. You've got a

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<v Speaker 3>population that you've got, you've got the employment needs that

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<v Speaker 3>you have. It's a really tricky one.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we haven't had the Employment Rights Bill really

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<v Speaker 1>yet kick in, and that's another thing which is going

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<v Speaker 1>to hurt the employment. It makes again much more expensive

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<v Speaker 1>for employers are going to have to give rights much

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<v Speaker 1>earlier and don't have the ability to be set to

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<v Speaker 1>say higher and fire or you know, people don't work out.

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<v Speaker 1>And then we also have the renter's rights coming through,

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<v Speaker 1>which is again going to impact on the housing market.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of stuff to come through which

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<v Speaker 1>could be worse. Having said all that, I'm actually quite

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<v Speaker 1>optimist on the UK economy despite the best efforts of

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<v Speaker 1>this government.

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<v Speaker 2>Give us the bullish cays then.

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<v Speaker 1>What I mean we are seeing bag of England saying

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<v Speaker 1>zero point nine this year. I think that's too low.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we will be in the early mid ones,

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<v Speaker 1>which saying definitely, oh yeah, absolutely, yeah, you know, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>all around, but I mean it's it's to my mind,

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<v Speaker 1>what's impacting is is the shift from the private sector

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<v Speaker 1>has been hampered by all the things we just mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>and the state sector is is still waiting for the

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<v Speaker 1>big boosts coming through from all the various plans that

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<v Speaker 1>all the taxes and all the various different measures we

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<v Speaker 1>spoke about or were designed to raise money's for so

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<v Speaker 1>I think the state sector is in rude health in

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<v Speaker 1>that sense, and we saw the last the last data,

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<v Speaker 1>the strongest bit was very much government spending. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's an ongoing trend. However, this private sector real data,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly things like purchasing managers surveys, even the British are

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<v Speaker 1>retail consortiums, sales are actually more optimistic than we thought.

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<v Speaker 1>This always the first quarter in the UK. Maybe it's

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<v Speaker 1>our seasonals in our stats, I don't know, but the

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<v Speaker 1>first quarter is normally pretty strong and it looks like

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<v Speaker 1>this first quarter is going to be again quite good.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm blast half full.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's good. And obviously if industry it has come

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<v Speaker 2>doing hose and market maybe kicks another and it's been

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<v Speaker 2>really weak for a good couple of years now, I

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<v Speaker 2>presumably we can get better.

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<v Speaker 3>And rents have actually well, the pace of rent increases

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<v Speaker 3>has been coming down quite substantially, and it's you know

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<v Speaker 3>in London even you know, we're seeing it sort of

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<v Speaker 3>the lowest rate inflation I think since the peak in

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty four. You know, it really has come down

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<v Speaker 3>a lot, and so that helps interest rates coming down

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<v Speaker 3>may help landlords further. Although I think there's quite a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of other things that need to be done to

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<v Speaker 3>help landlords further, to make that a more attractive proposition.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think you know you've got certainly some backways,

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<v Speaker 3>and like you said, the purchasing manager's surveys are indicating

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<v Speaker 3>increasing confidence. Perhaps now some of that uncertainty from the

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<v Speaker 3>last budget has passed. I don't think we're necessarily expecting

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<v Speaker 3>the same kind of drama around the next one. We

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<v Speaker 3>haven't been talking about it so much this time last year.

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<v Speaker 3>We were already on it.

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<v Speaker 1>The statement last year was was an important thing because

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<v Speaker 1>they missed. This time around, we're allowed to believe marks.

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<v Speaker 1>The third I think will be a non event. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like the headroom. The headroom very boring, ongoing problem,

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<v Speaker 1>looks for the moment not to be an issue in

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<v Speaker 1>that that I think is more saying is this.

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<v Speaker 3>Bond yields actually coming down as well means that the

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<v Speaker 3>government does have true money potentially, So that's good for everybody.

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<v Speaker 1>We hope it just there would be a lot cheaper

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't for the the political milestrom strum ash.

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<v Speaker 3>Still thrist into an extent there as much.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's guilts of forty fifty basis points high

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<v Speaker 1>than they would otherwise be if we weren't worrying about

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<v Speaker 1>from one day at the next the fate of who

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<v Speaker 1>will be leading covenment.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I know that will be interesting because obviously next

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<v Speaker 2>week we've got that big buy election and then me

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<v Speaker 2>we've got more elections and a loll beacon a trap

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<v Speaker 2>by her points for Kistat up presumably, But I guess

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<v Speaker 2>we just have to wait and see what happens with that.

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<v Speaker 2>But there was another big story this week, A massive

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<v Speaker 2>name in the city, another kind of monsters UK asset

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<v Speaker 2>was snapped up by foreign bayals. Marcus, what do you

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<v Speaker 2>make of the shrewder still?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean I think ever since Bruno Shoda died

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<v Speaker 1>and his daughter the only sort of essentially became the

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<v Speaker 1>most important person to represent the family, it always looked

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<v Speaker 1>like she wanted to sell. And I think that's clearly

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.360
<v Speaker 1>what has been shown. It's it's they wanted to sell

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 1>all of it, and they want to sell all of

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.439
<v Speaker 1>it for cash, and they found a very interesting buyer.

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.640
<v Speaker 1>Nuveene is not a very well known name in the

0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:57.199
<v Speaker 1>in the UK anyway, I wasn't sure it was a

0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:00.640
<v Speaker 1>cleaning product at first, but it isn't. It actually very

0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.000
<v Speaker 1>long older company based in Chicago, but it's owned by

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:10.080
<v Speaker 1>the Teachers Pension Fund, Insurance and Annuity Association, which is

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 1>a big thing in the States, you know, and this

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.120
<v Speaker 1>is this is legacy money, and this is retirement, very safe, secure.

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:20.840
<v Speaker 1>But they're actually really smart guys, and I think they've

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 1>had the strategy for quite some while within what they're

0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 1>doing in the States, from private AIRCUA to private credit

0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 1>to all sorts of different types of things. But they've

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:32.640
<v Speaker 1>realized that the one big missing point they've got was

0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.199
<v Speaker 1>exposure outside of the States. Now, as the dollar we've

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 1>seen weekend ten percent or so this year, a lot

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 1>of US money, not just foreigners putting money into US assets,

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>they're going to have to think about, Okay, maybe we

0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 1>hedge your dollar exposure, but also American investors thinking, hang,

0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.079
<v Speaker 1>do I not need some offshore exposure. It could be

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets, could be in commodities, doesn't have to be

0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 1>in Europe, but it could be in Asia. And the

0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.440
<v Speaker 1>one thing that Schroder's got is large exposure. Has got

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:06.440
<v Speaker 1>three joint ventures China, India, and Japan, and obviously a

0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 1>huge suite of products in Europe and the UK, and

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a very interesting move for them, for

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>teachers and moving to gain you know, extra trillion dollars

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 1>worth of assets. It's probably cheap of them to buy

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>an old city name which wanted to sell. Then buying

0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>in the States give some better diversification.

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 2>So you're sort of seeing this as part of the

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.520
<v Speaker 2>dollar hedge and story almost.

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think it is. I I think, you know,

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:35.080
<v Speaker 1>obviously the big black Rocks and Wellington's and Fidelities. I've

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 1>long been offshore, but a lot of the sort of

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:42.200
<v Speaker 1>endowment money and university and all that sort of stuff

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 1>money in the States, and there's lots and lots and

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 1>lots of pension funds haven't much exposure offshore. And this

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 1>is a very smart move I think for teachers to

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.600
<v Speaker 1>offer a wide range of products at a cheaper price

0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 1>for them, and it gets some you know, exposure outside

0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 1>the dollar, and obviously their internal client based a lot

0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>more options. There will be a lot more I think.

0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying it's time to buy Aberdeen or the

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 1>rather different companies that there might be in a comparable

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 1>situation to Schroeders but certainly I think US money managers

0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:18.920
<v Speaker 1>buying overseas money managers is I think that's what we'll

0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>see more of that.

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 2>Oh okay, that's interesting because that all sector and the

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.680
<v Speaker 2>UK has been can out armored, hasn't it. I kind

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 2>of if it's come back a bet, No, hasn't it.

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 2>But it's still one of the cheaper bets to see

0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 2>the fund management as management.

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the AI scare trade of course very well. Yeah,

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:38.120
<v Speaker 3>so I mean already, yes, we do have quite a

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.800
<v Speaker 3>lot of value potentially in new stocks. They are relatively cheap.

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 3>But there are particularly quite a few sectors which usually

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 3>would be immune from all the technology hype. I suppose

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 3>this week were impacted because it's sort of started to

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:58.239
<v Speaker 3>seep into areas that had previously been seen as very unexciting,

0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:03.840
<v Speaker 3>like sort of software information firms and publishers and wealth managers.

0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:05.880
<v Speaker 3>So that did take a chunk out of those, but

0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 3>like I said, they have mostly recovered a little bit. Well,

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 3>it's just because the.

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.320
<v Speaker 2>FIRSTY one hundred that was checking the starts from the

0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 2>start of the year and I actually we're up about

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 2>eight percent this year as the S and PECE flat

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 2>and I think Japine's the base. It's of a bit

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 2>twelve percent in stealing terms. But I mean have you

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 2>been have you been noticing that and noticed because obviously

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 2>they one hundred has been doing quite well. Was the

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.760
<v Speaker 2>two fifties still lagging a bit? Any scenes of a

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:36.760
<v Speaker 2>chef the med caps or.

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean they have been favored by quite a

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 3>lot of strategists coming into the year, and I think

0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 3>we are seeing quite a bit of value still to

0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.040
<v Speaker 3>be found in those mid caps. Of course, you look

0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.160
<v Speaker 3>at the Footsy one hundred, you have a lot of

0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 3>effects from the dollar actually because a lot of them

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 3>earn their earning overseas, particularly in US dollars, so you

0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:03.000
<v Speaker 3>have a huge currency effect there. And the Footsy one

0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:05.760
<v Speaker 3>hundred is also driven by these big international companies which

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:10.680
<v Speaker 3>have had a lot of strong drivers this year, like miners.

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:12.800
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, precious Meussiles have been absolutely through

0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.560
<v Speaker 3>the roof and that's really benefited those companies' defense has

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.359
<v Speaker 3>become another theme. So there's more sort of thematic trades

0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:20.280
<v Speaker 3>I think going on that are helping the Footsy one hundred,

0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.760
<v Speaker 3>which aren't necessarily about being in the UK, Whereas I

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.480
<v Speaker 3>think when you're yeah, looking at the mid caps, then

0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:31.640
<v Speaker 3>they are generally undervalued, and we have started to see

0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.000
<v Speaker 3>I suppose sometimes it misses out, but sometimes it's been

0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:35.720
<v Speaker 3>relatively said.

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.200
<v Speaker 1>And even energy, I mean, especially if you get something

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:40.760
<v Speaker 1>goes on in the Middle East over the next few days,

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.200
<v Speaker 1>which is a possibility. You know, the energy is doing better,

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, and that's that's a definite for evaluation of

0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:50.320
<v Speaker 1>lots of different types of industrials and staples and and

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.840
<v Speaker 1>you said sort of value. And the old companies that

0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 1>burn profits and pay dividends.

0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:59.000
<v Speaker 3>Shall you know, biggest company in the futsy one hundred.

0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.760
<v Speaker 3>You know, you're always in the top three caps change,

0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 3>So that's a big, bigger driver overall success.

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:11.879
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so old fashioned stocks still doing well. Watch the

0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.639
<v Speaker 2>al praise okay for I mean you were seeing the

0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:19.680
<v Speaker 2>elttle and you thought that maybe something mate happening around.

0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 2>I won't give you that feeling.

0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>For two reasons. One because if you remember the lead

0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:26.880
<v Speaker 1>up to the Ukraine or everyone went, oh, yes, he's

0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:30.200
<v Speaker 1>putting all these he's putting all those troops on the border,

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:32.879
<v Speaker 1>but he won't do it, will he Well he did,

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:35.520
<v Speaker 1>and he did because there was a sense of momentum.

0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:38.160
<v Speaker 1>And I think when you have two sets of aircraft

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 1>carrier fleets, there is a momentum there whereby you know,

0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 1>you have to think, well, if a deal isn't shown

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 1>from the ittolers in the Iranian regime fairly soon, which

0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>is exactly what Trump wants, and it's gonna be quite hard,

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:58.040
<v Speaker 1>I think to resist that sort of momentum. So and

0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.080
<v Speaker 1>I think, to my mind, I cannot see you're on

0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 1>backing down, and therefore I think there will be almost

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.720
<v Speaker 1>a yeah, we fall into wall. But I mean I

0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>think that's a there's a high chance that this is

0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.359
<v Speaker 1>not backing down. And the more and more munitions have

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 1>been put in in the zone, it becomes almost sadly

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:16.960
<v Speaker 1>self fulfilling.

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:20.400
<v Speaker 2>Okay, well, I think I think when that one will

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:24.120
<v Speaker 2>we'll wrap up. We'll see what that pomp show. Well,

0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:27.680
<v Speaker 2>you see what happens next week. But but it's not. Well,

0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:30.800
<v Speaker 2>thanks very much for that, Marcus, Thanks very much for weather.

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.000
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to this week's Merton Talks Money Debrief.

0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 2>If you like our show, rate review, and subscribe wherever

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.560
<v Speaker 2>you listen to podcasts. Also be sure to follow me

0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:46.199
<v Speaker 2>and Merin on x slash Twitter, Merrin's at Meren s

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:50.439
<v Speaker 2>W and I'm joined Underscore Step. This episode was produced

0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.959
<v Speaker 2>by Summer Sadi, Production support and sound designed by Aaron Casper.

0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:56.639
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0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:59.000
<v Speaker 2>are always welcome. Our show email is mereon Money at

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