1 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Francesca Levi. Laura Carlson is out. 2 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,159 Speaker 1: It's day one hundred seventeen since coronavirus was declared a 3 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: global pandemic. Today's main story as another wave of the 4 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: virus bears down on the United States. Millions of people 5 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: who lost their jobs when the outbreak began are stranded 6 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: without health insurance. But first, here's what happened in virus 7 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: news today. India has become a global hotspot for the pandemic. 8 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: The country's outbreak is now the third biggest in the world, 9 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: surpassing Russia. India now has around seven hundred thousand COVID 10 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: nineteen cases. Only the US and Brazil have more. India 11 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: had one of the world's strictest lockdowns at the end 12 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: of March, when the country reported fewer than one thousand cases, 13 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: but infections have surged since June, when Prime Minister nor 14 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,479 Speaker 1: Und Remote eased restrictions to rescue the economy from collapse. 15 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: A New Jersey company has one approval to make a 16 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: portable COVID nineteen tests that delivers results in fifteen minutes. 17 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: The Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization for 18 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 1: Beckton Dickinson to make the handheld product, which is around 19 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: the size of a cell phone. It's part of a 20 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: new class of tests that promised to make detecting the 21 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 1: virus faster and cheaper. The first such test was cleared 22 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: for US use in May. The country has struggled with 23 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: the test shortage since the pandemics early weeks. That's led 24 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: to long lines for testing in new hotspots like Arizona, Texas, 25 00:01:55,600 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: and Florida. Finally, data kind firms that in the US, 26 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: black and Latino people are being harmed by the coronavirus 27 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: at higher rates than whites. The New York Times reported 28 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: on federal data that proves this data that was only 29 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: made available after the newspaper sued the Centers for Disease 30 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: Control and Prevention. Latinos and Blacks have been three times 31 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: as likely to become infected and twice as likely to 32 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: die from the virus, according to the new numbers. And 33 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: now for today's main story, as a second coronavirus wave 34 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: threatens America. The virus has endangered the health of millions, 35 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: not just because of the effects of COVID nineteen, but 36 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 1: because a wave of job losses since the disease first 37 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: hit has left them without health insurance. I spoke to 38 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg reporter Read Pickart, who explains that in other developed economies, 39 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: the newly unemployed could rely on systems of universal healthcare, 40 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: and I'm America, they've had to navigate a bewildering menu 41 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: of options to figure out if they have access to 42 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 1: have patched together safety. We know that the pandemic led 43 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: millions of people to lose their jobs, So what does 44 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: that mean more broadly for healthcare? So more than half 45 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: the US population relied on the workplace for health coverage 46 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: before the pandemic hit. So when tens of millions of 47 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: people lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic 48 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: and the recession that it's spurred, millions of people found 49 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: themselves not just out of work, but without health insurance. 50 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: And you know, the US is pretty unique in this way, 51 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: and the fact that many other countries have, you know, 52 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: a national health care system available to all regardless of 53 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: your work status. But in the US, whether you have 54 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: insurance or not, and therefore access to affordable healthcare largely 55 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: depends on whether you have a job or not. So 56 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: you know, Congress acknowledged that problem and set aside billions 57 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: of dollars to help pay for COVID nineteen testing and 58 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: treatment for the uninsured. But that aid doesn't cover regular 59 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: or more routine medical costs. And so when we talk 60 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 1: about all of these people who lost health insurance because 61 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: of the job losses during the pandemic, how many people 62 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: are we actually talking So there are several estimates to 63 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: how many people have lost their health insurance, and it 64 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: largely depends on how you want to look at the losses. 65 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: So the Economic Policy Institute, for instance, estimated that more 66 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: than sixteen million workers lost their employer provided health insurance 67 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: as of early May. If you were to include dependence 68 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: like spouses and children. The Kaiser Family Foundation actually estimated 69 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: that almost twenty seven million people could have lost their 70 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: employer responsive coverage and become uninsured between March and May. 71 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: And you know, the good news at least is that 72 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: most of these people who lost their health insurance were 73 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: in a position to join a family member's plan or 74 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 1: qualify for Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act marketplace tax 75 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 1: credits um and those are the tax credits that help 76 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,039 Speaker 1: reduce the costs of the private plans that you know 77 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: could replace job space coverage for households with lower moderate incomes. 78 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: But at least what we've found is that not everyone 79 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: fits into one of those buckets. So without Medicaid and 80 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: without a subsidy, paying for health insurance is incredibly expensive 81 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: and many people may choose to just go without. And 82 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: the whole seemed to be even bigger in states that 83 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: haven't expanded Medicaid, like Florida and Texas. Yeah, tell me 84 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: a little bit more about Florida and Texas. What is 85 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: unique about those states? So Florida and Texas are unique 86 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: in the fact that that they have enormous populations, but 87 00:05:55,120 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: they chose not to expand Medicaid. So in those states, 88 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: you know, if you don't qualify for an a s 89 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: A subsidy UM, and you don't qualify for their normal 90 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: Medicaid programs, you have this this gap that people are 91 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: falling into, and the gap can be exacerbated by the 92 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: fact that UM in those states, there have also been 93 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: issues with people getting their unemployment insurance and getting UM 94 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: approved for it. So, for instance, UM I talked to 95 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: someone in Texas who because it took them months to 96 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: get their unemployment insurance approved and that they didn't have 97 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: qualify for Medicaid. They ended up not qualifying for an 98 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: A C A tax credit either because they couldn't show 99 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: that they had that income. When in fact, if they 100 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: had gotten their jobless benefits in an appropriate amount of time, 101 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: then then they would have qualified and and the costs 102 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: would have been hundreds of dollars cheaper for that plan. 103 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: And of course the delay in getting these jobless benefits 104 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: is itself sort of a by product of the pandemic. Right, 105 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: so many people are applying for unemployment benefits at the 106 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: same time that people are having trouble even getting their 107 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: phone calls answered exactly. So so this is not something, 108 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: um that is normal for that unemployment insurance system. It's 109 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: they've gotten thousands and thousands of calls, and um, the 110 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: systems and the websites have been completely overwhelmed by the 111 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: amount of demand for these benefits, and and and so 112 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: you just have this issue where you know, the pandemic 113 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: itself has exposed holes in America's safety net. So you know, 114 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: those job losses strain the unemployment insurance system greatly, and 115 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: so you know, many out of work Americans found themselves 116 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: waiting weeks or even months for their entitled aid. Others 117 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: found that they didn't even qualify. And you know, the 118 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: loss of health insurance is just kind of the latest 119 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: issue to come to light. So, you know, while Medicaid 120 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: and a c A have helped many more from going 121 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: on an shirt UM, gaps remained, and those gaps show 122 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: an entirely different way the kind of safety net is 123 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 1: not quite working for all us workers. So is this 124 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: going to continue to be an issue going forward? Is 125 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: the problem going to get any better? When you know, 126 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: labor market statistics start start taking up and the outlook 127 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: looks more at beeat so what we've seen in the 128 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: weeks since these estimates were made. So so these estimates 129 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: you know, are going up through May basically, and and 130 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: since then we've gotten the employment reports from the Department 131 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 1: of Labor for both May and June, and the labor 132 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: market has changed a lot. Millions of people have been 133 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: brought back onto employers payrolls, especially in things like food services, 134 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: and the unemployment rate has dropped substantially from where it was, 135 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: though remains extremely high. But the problem is that this 136 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: rebound that we're seeing in the jobs market UM is 137 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: not exactly directly terrible to this problem being solved in 138 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: terms of health insurance, and that's because of the way 139 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: that these these rehirings are broken down. So the problem 140 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: is that employees and sectors like food services, where a 141 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: lot of those games have been seen, have relatively low 142 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: coverage rates for employer provided health insurance in the first place. Meanwhile, um, 143 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: you know, sectors like state governments, which often provide health insurance, 144 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: continue to lay off workers. So you know, you put 145 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: that together, and on top of that, you have more 146 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: than a million people apply for unemployment benefits each week, 147 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: and we're seeing that people are continuing to lose their 148 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,559 Speaker 1: jobs at an alarming rate. What does this kind of 149 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: tell us about the strength of our safety net and 150 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: about what might happen in the future with the way 151 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: that we think about how Americans are insured. This is 152 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: the first recession that we've been in where we've had 153 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act, and there's no doubt when all 154 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: of this is said and done with that the a 155 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: c A will have kept many from going uninsured in 156 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: the wake of losing their employer sponsored coverage. But I 157 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: think what it really shows is that in the best 158 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: of times, the safety net misses some people. And when 159 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: we talk about health insurance, we I think we've learned 160 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: that pairing extreme job loss with that patch together safety 161 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: net has let millions of people fall through. And now 162 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: some people are finding themselves in a scenario where they're 163 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:33,479 Speaker 1: having to decide, well, do I pay hundreds of dollars 164 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: towards having health insurance because my employer sponsored health coverage 165 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: is gone, or perhaps because my state decided not to 166 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: expand Medicaid? Where do I put food on the table 167 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: or pay my bills? And I think that is a 168 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: very unique problem America is facing um and one that's 169 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: really hard to swallow. That was read Picker. You can 170 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 1: read her story with John Tazzi on Bloomberg dot com. 171 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,319 Speaker 1: And that's it for our show. For coverage of the 172 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: outbreak from bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 173 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,839 Speaker 1: slash Coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 174 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 175 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: It's the best way to help more listeners find our 176 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by two 177 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: for foreheads, Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and Laura Carlson. Today's 178 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: main story was reported by Red Picker. Original music by 179 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:36,239 Speaker 1: Leo sidri Our. Editors are Rick Shine and me Francesco. 180 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: Leading Bloomberg's head of podcasts is