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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I'm an amazing

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Speaker 3: show for everybody. Today will be Pristal and Dave.

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Speaker 2: We do lots continuing to break with regard to Iran.

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Speaker 2: Apparently Trump is choosing between a negotiated deal and a

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Speaker 2: major military operation will break all of that down for you.

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Speaker 2: He's also coming to the defense of Benjamin Netnahuo, as

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Speaker 2: Zorn floats the idea of arresting him when he's intown.

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Speaker 2: In September, China has erased our AI lead.

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Speaker 4: There's a possibility that the.

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Speaker 2: Trump administration is going to ban the Chinese open source models.

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Speaker 2: Big debate here, extremely extremely consequential for the economy, the future,

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Speaker 2: all those things. So we will break down what we

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Speaker 2: understand about this. Annie Jacobson is going to join us.

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Speaker 2: She has a new book sounding a dire warning about

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Speaker 2: the potential threat of biological weapons. Actually also ties in

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Speaker 2: with the AI block because that enables makes it more

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Speaker 2: easy to produce these weapons. And I've got an interview

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Speaker 2: today with Representative Adam Smith. He is the top Democrat

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Speaker 2: on the Armed Services Committee.

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Speaker 4: They actually reached out to us.

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Speaker 2: He wanted to have a conversation, slast debate about the

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Speaker 2: socialist the future of the Democratic Party. But he also

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Speaker 2: sager he's the ranking member on Armed Services just voted

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Speaker 2: for that Thomas Massey Amendment after a career supporting Israel.

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Speaker 2: Apak is kicking him to the curb. He's also the

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Speaker 2: most consequential or one of the most consequential people in

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Speaker 2: Washington with regard to that nbaa provision that would tie

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Speaker 2: us in with the Israeli military. So I'm really excited

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Speaker 2: to talk to him and press him on those issues.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually pretty cool that he reached out to us,

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Speaker 3: and again just to underscore the House Armed Services or

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Speaker 3: Ask as the Washington nerds call it, is genuinely besides

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Speaker 3: the Appropriations Committee, the most important committee in all of Congress.

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Speaker 1: So to be the ranking member.

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Speaker 3: You get to decide what gets in debate, what comes

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Speaker 3: out of committee before it reaches the overall floor. You

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Speaker 3: have immense, immense power in this town, and so it's

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Speaker 3: very interesting that he wants to stop by and to

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Speaker 3: debate Slash talk to Crystals come.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna enjoy watching it. I think some of you

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Speaker 1: will too.

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Speaker 3: Thank you everybody who's been supporting our show Breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 3: You are enabling the platform which allows members of Congress

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Speaker 3: and such powerful people to reach out to us on

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Speaker 3: the last minute notice, like we did with Thomas Massey

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Speaker 3: and Rocana. So seriously, thank you for the people will

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Speaker 3: enable our journalism and if you could support it. We

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Speaker 1: You can enjoy that.

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Speaker 3: If you're watching this on YouTube, please just hit subscribe

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Speaker 3: to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to the podcast,

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Speaker 3: please share an episode with the friend. It really helps

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Speaker 3: other people find the show. But as Crystal said, let's

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Speaker 3: go ahead and start with the situation with Iran remains

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Speaker 3: incredibly precarious. And we'll start with this from Donald Trump quote,

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Speaker 3: every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay

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Speaker 3: for that killing many times over. The directive has now

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Speaker 3: been passed on to the Secretary of Wars Pete Hegstath,

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Speaker 3: Chairman of the Joint Use of Staff, Daniel Kine, and

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Speaker 3: every other leader in the military. So obviously not really

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Speaker 3: something you want to see if you are hoping for

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Speaker 3: any potential slow down or cease fire. We also had

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Speaker 3: multiple ships in the Strait of Horror Moves, I mean

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Speaker 3: beyond count at this time. I recommend if you want

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Speaker 3: real time, you can go to the UK mto the

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Speaker 3: Maritime Authority. They put out a lot of the directives

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Speaker 3: about which ships are on fire. We don't have an

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Speaker 3: exact count of this morning's more than three or four

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Speaker 3: just in the last twenty four hours. Some video actually

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Speaker 3: coming out of the Strait we can show all of you.

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Speaker 3: This purports to show a Saudi vessel which was on

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Speaker 3: fire in the Strait of Horror Moves. This also comes

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Speaker 3: as multiple other vessels were on fire and had to

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Speaker 3: be abandoned in place, with the crew actually abandoning ship

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Speaker 3: in some of these cases or calling for distress. Now

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Speaker 3: at the same time, there is a critical decision point

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Speaker 3: here in Washington breaking this morning. Let's put it up

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Speaker 3: here on the screen from Barack Revid Basically, President Trump

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Speaker 3: quote is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war,

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Speaker 3: with US and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable end games.

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Speaker 3: Option one, you will pursue a new ten day ceasefire

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Speaker 3: aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option two, you

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Speaker 3: will launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to

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Speaker 3: force Tehran's capitulation. Obviously, ten day ceasefire does not have,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, a very very good chance of coming forward.

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Speaker 3: I was listening to our friend Tree de Parsi, he

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Speaker 3: was on Al Jazeera overnight.

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Speaker 1: Gave his immediate reaction.

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Speaker 3: Basically, he said, at this point, Iran has no choice

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Speaker 3: but to conclude that any ten day ceasefire would simply

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Speaker 3: be used as a way to get oil prices back

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Speaker 3: down without reaching the critical nexus point before they are

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Speaker 3: then bombed again and on and off and on and off,

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Speaker 3: with no memorandum of understanding, no reignition of the peace process,

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Speaker 3: the option to there being a quote massive military campaign

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Speaker 3: to take out Iran's nuclear program, And well, at this

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Speaker 3: point is I'm really sad about it.

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Speaker 4: I thought it was obliterated soccer what happens supposed.

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Speaker 3: To but I mean to even say it would be

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Speaker 3: about the nuclear program is disingenuous. This entire war is

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Speaker 3: the battle of horn moves. That's really what you could

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Speaker 3: call it. So the vast majority of the strikes, if

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Speaker 3: you're tracking inside of Iran, are either coming at nuclear facilities,

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Speaker 3: some indication potentially of civilian infrastructure, and you can always

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Speaker 3: see it lights.

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Speaker 1: Up right there along this strait.

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Speaker 3: But the fact that Iran retains that capability to shut

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Speaker 3: down the straight of horror.

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Speaker 1: Moves to target all of these different vessels.

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Speaker 3: On top of by the way, brand new announcement just

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Speaker 3: this morning, the Whothi's clarified we're not just shooting at

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Speaker 3: Saudi ships. Any vessel that docks at a Saudi port,

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Speaker 3: you are liable to be hit.

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Speaker 1: When you're in the Bab al Mandeb straight.

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Speaker 3: Obviously they still have Suez, they have a few other

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Speaker 3: ways that they can get out, so we shouldn't say

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Speaker 3: it's like a total closure, but it is adding pressure

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Speaker 3: to the global oil market at this time. So a

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Speaker 3: resumption of the war with Israel, all behind the scenes,

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Speaker 3: seems incredibly likely. Again, as of right now, things could

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Speaker 3: certainly change.

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Speaker 2: And the problem with the Suez Canal is it's not

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Speaker 2: large enough to accept the super large tankers that they

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Speaker 2: typically use for oil. But I'm sure they will try

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Speaker 2: to find as many workarounds as they possibly can because

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Speaker 2: the situation is very, very dire. Anytime I hear tree

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Speaker 2: to Parsi sounding negative on the possibilities of diplomacy and negotiations,

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Speaker 2: I pay attention because obviously he's a big believer in diplomacy.

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Speaker 2: I think he was genuinely optimistic when the MoU was signed.

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Speaker 2: Someone said, you know, this has a possibility because both

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Speaker 2: sides really don't want to go to all out war.

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Speaker 4: So when I hear.

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Speaker 2: Him being pessimistic about the near term prospects of any

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Speaker 2: sort of resolution, that is a real warning sign for

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Speaker 2: me that things are really quite dire.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, you know, the.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so let's say that there's some new military a

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Speaker 2: where to take cargyle and we bomb Pickaxe Mountain? Whatever,

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Speaker 2: What is this even going to lead to? Now, the

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Speaker 2: idea I think that's offered by the by the Hawks

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Speaker 2: in this situation is oh, we'll create more leverage so

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Speaker 2: that we get a better deal in the negotiations. Well,

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Speaker 2: our own intel community says that's very unlikely to be

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Speaker 2: the case. We can put a nine up on the

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Speaker 2: screen and look, this won't be surprised to any of

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Speaker 2: you guys watching this show, but it's still interesting when

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Speaker 2: our own intelligence community comes to the same conclusion. They

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Speaker 2: offer a pessimistic view of new rounds of US military

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Speaker 2: strikes against Iran. They are unlikely to have a significant

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Speaker 2: impact on Iran or soften a RAN's negotiating position. Current

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Speaker 2: and former officials tell these journalists. So you know, the

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Speaker 2: experts insider are saying, hey, guys, just like this hasn't

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Speaker 2: worked up to this point and has only actually weakened

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Speaker 2: our hand and strengthened Iran's hand. This is going to

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Speaker 2: continue to not work, which is why these more insane

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Speaker 2: options are being floated to do something that hasn't been

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Speaker 2: done before. But you know, this has been studied. This

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Speaker 2: is Professor Pape's area of expertise. It has never worked

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Speaker 2: that an air campaign alone is going to cause regime change,

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Speaker 2: is going to allow us to you know, defeat Iran,

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Speaker 2: defeat the government, and put us in a stronger physician

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Speaker 2: the negotiating table. At this point, it's very unlikely whenever

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Speaker 2: we do end up back at the negotiating table, that

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Speaker 2: will get something that is even as good as what

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Speaker 2: was on the table with the memo of understanding. We

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Speaker 2: should be so lucky to have such a humiliating deal.

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Speaker 2: From the US perspective, it is only set to get

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Speaker 2: worse from here.

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Speaker 3: It is so crazy to mean that we're still even

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Speaker 3: trying to do this one hundred years later. There's a

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Speaker 3: book called The uh Command of the Air I have

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Speaker 3: it in front of me from I can't really pronounce.

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Speaker 3: It's like General Douche. I think it's duche. Maybe Douhey.

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Speaker 3: Some of the air power nerds will get mad at me.

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Speaker 3: And this was this theory that we can compel and

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Speaker 3: win all wars from the air. And obviously the United

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Speaker 3: States tried at least some of this in the initial

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Speaker 3: build up to the invasion of Normandy. And what did

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Speaker 3: we conclude is that while we were able to do

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Speaker 3: significant amounts of damage to the Nazi war machine, nothing

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Speaker 3: is ultimately going to win a more than taking the territory. Now,

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Speaker 3: there's a second correlate to that, which is the atomic bomb,

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Speaker 3: which of course brought the war with Japan to a close.

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Speaker 3: But even that, you know, people say conventional air power

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Speaker 3: was able to destroy some of this, but they still

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Speaker 3: would have been able to put up some of a fight.

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Speaker 3: So it's one hundred years or so later and we're

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Speaker 3: still trying to do this from the air. Why because

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Speaker 3: it's easy and you take minimal amounts of casualties. And

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Speaker 3: I'm not in any way under you know, I'm not

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Speaker 3: trying to underplay the seventeen probably eighteen now Americans that

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Speaker 3: have been killed in this war. But it's not hundreds

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Speaker 3: and hundreds enough to mobilize true popular resistance in the

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Speaker 3: way that the war and he rocked it. But what

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Speaker 3: we see in front of us right now is a

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Speaker 3: crazy situation where the intelligence community, and I've asked around,

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Speaker 3: from what I understand, the intel from our side is

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Speaker 3: actually pretty good, our intel analysts from the beginning, where

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Speaker 3: like this Israeli stuff is nonsense.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't back up with what we're saying.

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Speaker 3: You can read the inside Maggie Haverman Jonathan Swan account.

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Speaker 3: The CIA director was like, I don't know about this.

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Speaker 3: This is not what where our people are showing Trump

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Speaker 3: advance and all of the guys in the situation room,

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Speaker 3: they have all the munition's numbers in front of them,

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Speaker 3: the real ones. We only have estimates they have, I

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Speaker 3: mean oil. Frankly, you know, for us, there's no secret

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Speaker 3: information on oil stockpile and all that is completely public.

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Speaker 3: We know exactly where we are. But these Raelis continue

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Speaker 3: to push their own versions, which Trump wants to believe

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Speaker 3: because they are both much more optimistic and they give

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Speaker 3: him the potential win. Let's put a nine up here

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Speaker 3: on the screen from the Wall Street Journal just this morning,

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Speaker 3: new magical analysis the magic bullet, if you will. Israel

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Speaker 3: believes Iran move nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain. The US

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Speaker 3: is now reviewed and is really assessment, and President Trump

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Speaker 3: has threatened to attack the site. Israeli intelligence believes Iran

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Speaker 3: has moved thousands of uranium and Richmond centrifuges into tunnels

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Speaker 3: deep inside of a mountain last fall wait, I thought

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Speaker 3: it was all destroyed. I thought it was unburied, unusable, unmovable.

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Speaker 3: You can't even get to it. And yet now magically

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Speaker 3: it's all in Pickaxe Mountain. Perhaps perhaps it is true.

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Speaker 3: If it is true, one might even ask why the

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Speaker 3: Twelve Day War even happened in the first place. And

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Speaker 3: they say Israel's war aims have now diverged from the

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Speaker 3: United States. Prime Minister Benatanyahu has tried to persuade Trump

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Speaker 3: to resume all out attacks on Iran into further set

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Speaker 3: back to Tehran's weapons program and rebuilding efforts, and the

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Speaker 3: US has now stepped up attacks in the past ten days.

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Speaker 3: Trump has said publicly that he would potentially target Pickaxe Mountain.

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Speaker 3: He said, a possible target for nice, big fat shot. Now,

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Speaker 3: many of you might remember the interview Trump gave last

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Speaker 3: week in which Hugh Hewitt magically seems to bring up

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Speaker 3: Pickaxe Mountain out of nowhere. I read the news, you

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Speaker 3: do too, I hadn't really seen a ton about Pickaxe Mountain. So, hmm,

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Speaker 3: Israeli intelligence tells Trump about this magical Pickaxe Mountain. Hugh Hewitt,

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Speaker 3: who is one of the major neocons radio hosts here

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Speaker 3: in Washington happens to have a show with a prime

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Speaker 3: mint or sorry, an interview with Trump in which he

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Speaker 3: goes president. He even signs off the interview. Do you

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Speaker 3: remember this, mister president, go get pickaxe Mountain. One may

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Speaker 3: ask mister Hewitt in which why he got and where

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Speaker 3: he got some of that information and planted it there

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Speaker 3: in the President's head, not in any way taking any

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Speaker 3: agency away from Trump, who of course could decide that

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Speaker 3: this is obviously it is Reeli info op. But you

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Speaker 3: can see if you want to read the tea leaves

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Speaker 3: where things are all coming from. We also, and this

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Speaker 3: is the thing too, about the other Gulf nations. They

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Speaker 3: are taking an absolute pounding. So professor Morandi from Tehran,

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Speaker 3: of course we've had him on here on the show

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Speaker 3: many times, and he is very much in touch with

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Speaker 3: the Iranian leadership.

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Speaker 1: We can put a three please. He put this out yesterday.

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Speaker 3: People should evacuate Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi via the UAE,

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Speaker 3: possibly Oman. If the Trump regime keeps pushing escalation, the

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Speaker 3: fate of key infrastructure across these complicit receives is not

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Speaker 3: in doubt.

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Speaker 1: They will become unlivable.

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Speaker 3: You can now see that in all of the attacks

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Speaker 3: that have happened on Kuwait multiple days in a row,

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Speaker 3: now of desalination energy plants that were all being targeted

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Speaker 3: in Kuwait. You also have critical energy infrastructure on top

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Speaker 3: of strikes all across the region Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan in particular,

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Speaker 3: where many of those US troops were killed. And we do,

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Speaker 3: by the way, have a four. These are the images

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Speaker 3: that we can show all of you of the American

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Speaker 3: service members we now know have confirmed who have been killed.

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Speaker 3: One of them Private Isabella Gonzales, nineteen years old. She

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Speaker 3: just graduated from high school in twenty twenty five in Carrollton, Texas.

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Speaker 3: The other first Lieutenant First Lieutenant Tyler James Fienn of

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Speaker 3: Ewa Beach, Hawaii, killed in action July eighteen, twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: We also getting some preliminary reports on the third casualty

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Speaker 3: in that strike appears to be a father of a

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Speaker 3: young girl. And so what we know also if we

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Speaker 3: put a five up here on the screen, is that

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Speaker 3: inside of Iran, many civilians, including two students, were actually

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Speaker 3: killed in the US strikes on a bridge in province

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Speaker 3: in Iran on Thursday. Iran has identified two of those students,

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Speaker 3: two of them also younger girls, so you can see

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Speaker 3: the human costs now so far. I also think it

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Speaker 3: is worth looking at the satellite imagery if we can

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Speaker 3: go to the next one A six please and Crystal,

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Speaker 3: this is just what's so devastating. Obviously we have the

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Speaker 3: video we showed everybody this yesterday. This appears to be

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Speaker 3: the strike on the barracks of the base in Jordan

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Speaker 3: where these soldiers seem to have been killed either in

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Speaker 3: their sleep or while they were running for cover. This

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Speaker 3: is satellite imagery for those of you who are watching,

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Speaker 3: which shows directly on the left side the damage that

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Speaker 3: was done to those containerized housing units on the right is.

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Speaker 1: What it looked like before.

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Speaker 3: So a direct strike on the barracks where these troops

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Speaker 3: are being housed, and many of them were killed in

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Speaker 3: this third strike, the details of which Chris will just

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Speaker 3: show the targeting data and the ability of Iran to

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Speaker 3: evade US defenses because this base was struck three separate

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Speaker 3: times in one day, and all three of the missiles

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Speaker 3: came through debris was able to.

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Speaker 1: Hit the first time around.

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Speaker 3: The second time around there was also a hit that

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Speaker 3: was on the base for incoming the third one is

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Speaker 3: where the direct strike happened in the middle of the night,

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Speaker 3: in this housing barrack, and obviously, i mean current indications

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Speaker 3: are that's where they were whenever they were hit.

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Speaker 4: It just makes it so well and it's just.

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Speaker 1: Such a horrific thing to even think about.

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Speaker 4: It is truly horrific.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that girl host nineteen, I mean, this is

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Speaker 2: basically my daughter's age. At her high school graduation, they

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Speaker 2: asked everybody who was enlisting the military to stand up.

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Speaker 2: There were quite a few in her glass who were

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Speaker 2: going in and it's like, for what, you know, for

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Speaker 2: what did this woman and the other service move for?

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Speaker 2: What did they die for? What did these Iranian civilians

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Speaker 2: get killed? I mean, it's just absolutely horrific, beyond belief,

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Speaker 2: you know. Going back to Pickaxe Mountain, and another reason

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Speaker 2: why everyone should be very very nervous when we start

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Speaker 2: talking about this shit is it's unlikely that conventional weapons

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Speaker 2: would be able to even come close to destroying Pickaxe Mountain.

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Speaker 2: It's much deeper, much more hardened than Fourdeaux and the

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Speaker 2: other sites that we've attacked. So could we collapse the entrances,

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Speaker 2: could we do some external damn sure?

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Speaker 4: With conventional weapons.

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Speaker 1: Sure.

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Speaker 2: So that's why I continue to be concerned, because Trump

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Speaker 2: is a complete maniac and is desperate for a win,

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Speaker 2: for pulling some sort of win out of this absolute

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Speaker 2: catastrophe that he himself has put us into. That he

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Speaker 2: could be crazy enough to consider a nuclear weapon and

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Speaker 2: breaking that taboo, and then, I mean, what a complete disaster.

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Speaker 2: I mean that then we're talking about any sort of

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Speaker 2: moral leadership of the UA, Are you kidding me?

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Speaker 4: Like the world will.

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Speaker 2: Run to China as they should if we you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, as they We've already given them plenty of reason.

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Speaker 4: To do that, by the way.

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Speaker 2: But that's why this is, you know, this is really

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Speaker 2: quite terrifying, these talks and the constant efforts from not

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Speaker 2: just the Israelis but all of the Hawks to push

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Speaker 2: Trump in the direction of and this is what he wants,

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Speaker 2: some sort of wild escalation that you know, this time

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Speaker 2: it'll be different. This time it will be the play

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Speaker 2: that is going to strengthen our hand and provide you

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Speaker 2: with the glorious victory that he is so anxious to

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Speaker 2: be able to achieve.

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Speaker 4: So that's very scary.

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Speaker 2: The last thing that I wanted to bring up is

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Speaker 2: This analysis from his name is policy tents are both

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Speaker 2: on Twitter and also he has a substack that is

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Speaker 2: really worth reading. He says he has says not only

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Speaker 2: does the US not have the military means to defeat Iran,

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Speaker 2: it does not have the military means to prevent Iran

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Speaker 2: from imposing its exclusive authority over HERMUZ. The US should

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Speaker 2: have honored the mouit signed. At least we could have

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Speaker 2: saved a bit of face, brought her on in from

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Speaker 2: the cold. The next one's going to be even more humiliating.

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Speaker 2: It's if a diplomatic is still not found, as would

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Speaker 2: be the case unless the US accepts Iranian authority over hermus.

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Speaker 2: This ends either with a nuclear armed Iran or with

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Speaker 2: the US Empire disarmed, or both. Regardless of how this ends,

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Speaker 2: Iran will keep Hormos forever for the same reason the

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Speaker 2: US will control the Panama Canal. The reason all this

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Speaker 2: is happening is very simple. The Empire is no longer

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Speaker 2: viable as an imperial project. Posn's command of the global

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Speaker 2: commons is gone. It was based on a decisive military

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Speaker 2: advantage that has vanished with the arrival of the mature

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Speaker 2: precision strike regime. You cannot argue with a technological era.

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Speaker 2: You can bash your head against the wall, but all

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Speaker 2: the head bashing is only going to yield more pain

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Speaker 2: and humiliation. Very important to know when to fold, to

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Speaker 2: accept defeat, and to understand it so that the means

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Speaker 2: and ends of foreign policy can be brought back into balance.

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Speaker 4: And Sager, I think that's really true.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's why, in particular in this war against Iran,

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Speaker 2: that's why it's hopeless that we're going to be able

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Speaker 2: to secure some sort of decisive victory here. It's a fantasy.

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Speaker 2: It's why Israel going up against Hamas, which has like nothing,

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Speaker 2: which has scraped together weapons from the ordinance that's dropped

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Speaker 2: on Gaza. That's why Israel was unable to defeat Hamas,

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Speaker 2: is not able to secure their military victory in the

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Speaker 2: way that they would want using bombs alone. It's the

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Speaker 2: reason why Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Again, Russia

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Speaker 2: vastly larger population, vastly larger military, technological superiority, all of

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Speaker 2: that stuff, and they're banging their head up against the

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Speaker 2: wall in Ukraine and basically completely bogged down at this point.

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Speaker 2: This is the era that we live in now. And

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Speaker 2: it is a completely different game than what was played

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Speaker 2: in the past. And you know, Trump at al just

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Speaker 2: refused to reckon with the fact that this is never

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Speaker 2: going to succeed. There is nothing that they can do

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Speaker 2: that would allow it to succeed.

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Speaker 3: Right, And actually the Russian experience is one where is

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Speaker 3: the United States prepared for what Russia is going to

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Speaker 3: do to eventually, in my opinion, win the war, which

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Speaker 3: is sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people for nothing. You know,

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Speaker 3: there's a new cias meant, who knows if it's true

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Speaker 3: where they say that the average estimate of lifespan on

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Speaker 3: the Russian Front for a new soldier is like thirty seconds.

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Speaker 3: I mean, is that actually true.

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Speaker 4: Probably I don't know if I really buy that, but yeah,

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Speaker 4: but you.

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Speaker 3: Know, it's one of those where okay, well, if it's

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Speaker 3: not thirty seconds, I forget the stat from the First

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Speaker 3: World War. I think it's like a new first lieutenant

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Speaker 3: on the Western Front for the British military that.

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Speaker 1: He survived like two weeks.

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Speaker 3: Let's say something like that, right, where okay, yeah, you can,

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Speaker 3: you can win, but it's going to take literally the

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Speaker 3: sacrifice of an entire generation.

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Speaker 1: Go and look up the statistics.

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Speaker 3: For Russian men born in the year nineteen it's like

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Speaker 3: nineteen twenty to nineteen twenty five. I forget the exact

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Speaker 3: number who were either wounded or killed, but it's insane,

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Speaker 3: like the vast majority of people who eventually saw service

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Speaker 3: on the Eastern Front?

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Speaker 5: Is that?

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Speaker 6: What?

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Speaker 1: Is that how we want to live? That's not how

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Speaker 1: I want to live.

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Speaker 3: Well, you want to see Isabella Gonzalezes and all of

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Speaker 3: her classmates and all of those people either get killed

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Speaker 3: or maimed for a generation for what And yeah, I

439
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 3: mean I talked a lot about this our in our

440
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 3: show yesterday about drones and how it was able to undermine,

441
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 3: specifically the entire idea that the US military was built

442
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 3: upon of which those trillions of dollars have been spent.

443
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 3: You just simply have to recognize reality. But this doesn't

444
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: happen when you read a history book. Every time we

445
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: say no, no, no, if we just do a little

446
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 3: bit more and a little bit more, it's not until

447
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,439
Speaker 3: you absolutely get bitch slapped in the face, like you

448
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 3: know multiple times when the Japanese did it to the

449
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 3: United States, or if you know there's multiple other battles.

450
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 3: I think it happened to a British I forget the

451
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: exact I think it might have been in Singapore something

452
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 3: like that in around December of nineteen forty one, where

453
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 3: it was the same thing where the entire navy just

454
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 3: wakes up and goes Our entire theory of the last

455
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: twenty five years was wrong, and you find out in

456
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 3: a two hour time span.

457
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 1: But we found out. And yet just like with them,

458
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 1: all the writing was on the wall. Everybody knew.

459
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 3: Basically, everybody had a chance to know if they wanted.

460
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 3: But it's willful blindness for too much money spent, sunk

461
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: cost fallacy. And that's why when I say we haven't

462
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 3: bled enough, we haven't. That's just the I wish it

463
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 3: were the case. To me, we have bled plenty. But

464
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 3: for the policymakers, for the imperial like for these people,

465
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 3: for the Duba Witzes of the world, for the journal

466
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal, for Trump, for Fox News, for these

467
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: people to admit catastrophic defeat, it takes, you know, something

468
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 3: like that like Pearl Harbor or something like thirty five

469
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 3: hundred people who are killed. I truly wish it weren't

470
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 3: the case, but it usually is. Yeah, and there's just

471
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 3: too much evidence to point in the other direction.

472
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,719
Speaker 2: Well, and with Putin and Russia, I mean, not only

473
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,200
Speaker 2: could they, you know, continue to just feed their people

474
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: into meet Griner, which what they've been doing, they're also

475
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 2: considering insane things, considering, you know, bombing further into Europe,

476
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 2: considering using a nuclear weapon. These are active debates that

477
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 2: are happening withinside of inside of Russia to try to

478
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: again secure something that they've been unable to fully secure

479
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 2: on the battlefield. You know, I think you're right over time,

480
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: it's enough time. You already have Ukrainian who are you know,

481
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 2: would like to see a resolution to the war, and

482
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: a war weary and have had an entire generation that

483
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: has been destroyed. But you know, this has not been

484
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 2: the easy pickings that Putin thought it was going to be.

485
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 2: And then with Iran, you know, Iran is we underestimated them.

486
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 2: They actually are a better industrial power than we are.

487
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 2: They've got their shit much more together in terms of manufacturing,

488
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: you know, the drones that they've developed and the things

489
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 2: that they need in order to succeed. They understand their

490
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: strengths in terms of their geography and what they need

491
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 2: to do, what our weaknesses are, et cetera. They believe

492
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: that they can withstand a lot more pain than we can.

493
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: I think that's absolutely the case. And so you know,

494
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 2: here we are with Trump considering, hey, do we pursue

495
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 2: this ten day deal, which Iran probably even if Trump

496
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,360
Speaker 2: was like, let's do it, Iran's probably like, no, I'm

497
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 2: not doing that, because you're just using that to calm

498
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: the oil markets and then go right back to war

499
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 2: or is there going to be some sort of a catastrophic,

500
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 2: disastrous escalation.

501
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 3: So that's also I have the stat sixty eight percent

502
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 3: of Soviet males born innineteen twenty three were dead by

503
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: the beginning of nineteen forty six.

504
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: Jesus, basically seven.

505
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 3: Out of ten, and the rest were probably horrifically scarred

506
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 3: by their PTSD year wounds.

507
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 1: So I don't want to live that way. All right,

508
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: Let's get to BB.

509
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 2: So you may recall that mayors are on mom Donnie,

510
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 2: when he was on the campaign trail, indicated that he

511
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: would have Netnaw who arrested for his war crimes or

512
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: overcall he the wanted criminal by the ICC, if he

513
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 2: were to come to New York. He was asked about

514
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 2: that in a recent New York Times interview, and he said, yeah,

515
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 2: we're still looking into that.

516
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

517
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,679
Speaker 7: I believe that Prime Mister Nettane, who belongs in the Hague,

518
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 7: he's a war criminal who has been charged by the

519
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 7: International Criminal Court. And what you will find is that

520
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 7: is an opinion that is held by many purely because

521
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 7: of what his actions have wrought over these last many years.

522
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 7: I've also said that I will follow the laws that

523
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 7: we have here in New York City because I believe

524
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 7: that there's an importance in following the law as a

525
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 7: leader who presides over our city. And that's something that

526
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 7: I plan to do.

527
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 4: Meaning I'm sorry, I don't understand what that means, meaning.

528
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 7: That whatever the law allows me to do in New

529
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 7: York City, that's what we will do. But we won't

530
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 7: be writing our own laws.

531
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: To that end.

532
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 6: What does the law allow you to do.

533
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 7: That's an active conversation with our legal department in seeing

534
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 7: what the prospects are we have here in our municipality. However,

535
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 7: what we've seen at the national level is a desire

536
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 7: sometimes to write your own laws, to go outside of

537
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 7: the bounds of legality.

538
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: That's not something we have an interest in.

539
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 2: So I'm very much read those comments as a way

540
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: to sort of walk back from the promise to arrest Natanya,

541
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: basically saying like, yeah, I'd love to do it, but

542
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: we got to be constrained by laws and we're looking

543
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 2: into it. And the reality is, I mean, we're not

544
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 2: even a signatory to the ICC. It's hard to imagine

545
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: what legitimate power he could use, even though I would

546
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 2: love for him to figure out one. Nevertheless, Sagar Trump

547
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 2: made sure to come to Netna, who's rescue and defense

548
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 2: here and can put Element one up on the screen

549
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: Benjamin Etna, who will not be arrested in any way,

550
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: shape or form.

551
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 4: While in the United States of America.

552
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: He's fighting against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which recently

553
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 2: killed fifty two thousand innocent protesters. I swear that number

554
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: goes up every time we see it, and has spent

555
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 2: the last forty seven years killing American soldiers and others.

556
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 2: The only ones that should be arrested are the people

557
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: that led Iran into this unprecedented spiral of death and destruction,

558
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: something that should have been dealt with years ago by

559
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 2: previous precedents. So there you go. Trump making sure that

560
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: met Nyahuu will be safe and sound when he comes

561
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 2: here in September. I think for the UN General Assembly

562
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: is the reason that he's planning to.

563
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 4: Be in town.

564
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: Zoran was asked again about the possibility of this arrest,

565
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 2: and they tried to play like, well, why do you

566
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: care so what about the treatment of Iran in New

567
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: York City? Is there some sort of a double standard

568
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 2: at work here? This is B three.

569
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and listen to that.

570
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 5: Our administration did not reach out to the Prime Minister

571
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 5: of Iran. Our administration received a request from the Iranian consulate,

572
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 5: and as soon as I heard of that, I made

573
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 5: it clear that we are noting and we will not

574
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 5: meet with the Israeli consulate here in New York City.

575
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 5: And when it comes to Benjamin Netanyaho, we're speaking about

576
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 5: someone who's the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant,

577
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 5: and he's the subject of this arrest warrant for alleged

578
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 5: crimes against humanity, for war crimes, and he's the architect

579
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 5: of the genocidegainst Palestinians and Gaza. As Israel's Prime minister,

580
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 5: these are not facts of my personal assessment. They are

581
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 5: facts of public record, and I believe that when someone

582
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 5: is charged with an international criminal court warrant, it's something

583
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 5: that should be taken seriously, whether it's Benjamin Nettniaho or

584
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 5: it's Vladimir Putin or whomever else. What I've also made

585
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 5: clear is that my administration will follow all applicable local laws.

586
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 5: That is our commitment. That is something that we will

587
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 5: follow through on when it comes to an adherence to

588
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 5: local law. And that's all I have to add on that.

589
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 4: Thank you looking, And now we're going to go to

590
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 4: Heather for law.

591
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 2: Are you looking at arresting anybody else on that list

592
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: of people who've committed international war crimes?

593
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 5: My point is that if someone is charged with a

594
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 5: warrant by the international Criminal court for these kinds of crimes,

595
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 5: that's something I believe that should be honored. And I've

596
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 5: also said that we will follow our local laws.

597
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 4: So there you go.

598
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 2: Unlikely that Netanyaho is going to be arrested on anytime soon, sadly,

599
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 2: although I mean possibly if he loses this election, maybe

600
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 2: in Israel, but over corruption, not of war crimes.

601
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 3: So overcome Atari corruption, which is the best part of it.

602
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: For all the accusations.

603
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, but in any case he's probably safe when

604
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: he comes to New York City. Sadly, it is wild though,

605
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: just to reflects Sager that this is the mayor of

606
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: New York, she's like under pressure to say that he

607
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: would arrest net in Yahoo just a couple years ago,

608
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 2: the idea that you would have an avowed anti Zionist

609
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 2: who wants to arrest net Yahoo, who support is a

610
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 2: supporter of the BDS movement to be the mayor of

611
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: New York City. Of course, the largest concentration of Jewish

612
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 2: Americans in the entire country, one of the largest concentrations

613
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: of use on the planet period. It just shows you

614
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: how radically things have shifted. And it's not, you know,

615
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 2: in spite of opposition from Jewish New Yorkers. It's in

616
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: part because of support from Jewish New Yorkers who were

617
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 2: also disgusted with the war crimes of NETANYAHUU and the

618
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: genocide that their tax dollars have funded. Along with of

619
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: course Urn's core campaign pitch, which was very appealing to me.

620
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: I do think what's interesting, first of all, are totally

621
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,479
Speaker 3: so like I went to GW which is like the

622
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: birthplace of Hillary Clinton liberalism, and I you know, when

623
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 3: I was in college, the median position was Hillary is great,

624
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 3: but BDS is support for terrorism, Like that was the

625
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: that was like the democratic you know, and most of

626
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: the people I went to school with, if they're involved

627
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 3: in politics, they probably all work and you know, the

628
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: centrist industrial complex. So but for them, I think a

629
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 3: lot of them shifted also on Israel. It is inconceivable

630
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 3: for something like that to happen. I also think it

631
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: is so obvious that if you watch that first comment,

632
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 3: he's backing himself out of what his most ardent supporters wanted,

633
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 3: which is like I won't name the person who are

634
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: arguing with this about where.

635
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: He's like, why does Zoron not arrest Ben.

636
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 3: Gavier whenever Ben Gavier Nao came to the Israel Day parade.

637
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 3: I'm like, dude, he's the NYPD, or is the New

638
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: York City commissioner or a mayor, Mike, he doesn't have

639
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: any statutory authority to arrest a foreign dignitary And don't

640
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 3: use that word in what it is based the technicality, Yeah,

641
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 3: what it means he has zero authority to arrest a

642
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: foreign dignitary on US soil.

643
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 7: Like.

644
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 3: The fact is this US State Department and the United

645
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 3: States government at the federal level has total authority whenever

646
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: it comes to that, So a local mayor has zero

647
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: capability whatsoever to do that, and himself would be in violation.

648
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: Of like multiple US laws.

649
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: He knows that, which is why he keeps saying, we're

650
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 3: going to focus all our local laws, even at a

651
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 3: higher level. As you said, we're not statutory through the ICC.

652
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 3: We don't even recognize authority the current administration currently and

653
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: actually long in the past, even Bill Clinton and all

654
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: of them, whenever they were under serious pressure to become signatories,

655
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 3: they didn't want to do it because explicitly, not just

656
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: for this reason, but because it would, you know, undermine

657
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 3: the empire status.

658
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: Of the US. So there is no way that this

659
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: would ever happen.

660
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 4: I know it'd be popular if it didn't.

661
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: I see, I don't know about that.

662
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: But oh yeah, if they found a way to arrest Danya,

663
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 2: it would be popular.

664
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: It would be very popular.

665
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: You know, he did live here.

666
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: Friends of mine and the government tell me basically everyone's

667
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 3: guilty of wire fraud in some way or the other.

668
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: So I'm sure you'd find something.

669
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: But you know, yeah, it was from Pennsylvania, right, I

670
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: think he's lived in Pennsylvania.

671
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe not born there, but he lived around there.

672
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I just know that he stayed in Jared

673
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: Kushner's bedroom when a street was in town.

674
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 3: And he would brack be like, Jared, I used to

675
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 3: sleep in your childhood bedroom. And I think I attended

676
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: a speech where he said that publicly. I'm looking around

677
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 3: in the press corps and I'm like everyone.

678
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: Else hear this.

679
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 4: I'm like's like normal weird?

680
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 3: Is this nobody else thinks this is super weird? Or

681
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 3: whenever you would you come to America and as frequent

682
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: visits and visit. Oh, I don't know Jonathan Pollard, the

683
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: convicted US or convicted spy in prison, but that's what

684
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 3: he's all about.

685
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: If we were to.

686
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 3: Zoom out a little bit about Bebe and Trump, I mean,

687
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: it's so hard to try and read the tea leaves.

688
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 3: Can we put this before up here on the screen.

689
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 3: This is from Barackravid inside Bbe's mystery Trump meeting, where

690
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: Bebe kept saying all day, I'm gonna meet with Trump.

691
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna meet with Trump.

692
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna meet with Trump via these anonymous accounts in

693
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: the Israeli press. No meeting has been scheduled Natagna, who

694
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 3: obviously has visited the Oval Office six times since Trump

695
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 3: has entered office, more than any world leader in under

696
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 3: the Trump administration. All of those meetings were scheduled quote

697
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 3: within an hour or days. This time, he's been trying

698
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 3: to get an appointment for more than two weeks. From

699
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: what we can see, A lot of this has to

700
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 3: do with Lindsey Graham's funeral. Now the funeral actually has

701
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 3: been delayed to the July twenty eighth. Now will be

702
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: Bbe is scheduled to attend the funeral, which okay, I

703
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: mean tells you a little bit about who's memorializing Senator Graham.

704
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 3: But what is fascinating to me is Trump doesn't seem

705
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 3: to want to meet him, or at least publicly as

706
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 3: of yet. But obviously they're on the phone and they

707
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: talk all the time. I just can't figure out who

708
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 3: exactly and what the optics behind this are, like, do

709
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 3: they recognize as toxic They don't want to send an

710
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: explicit message with Ron at the same time we're bombing

711
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 3: the hell out of them. It looks like a war

712
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 3: could resume literally at any moment, and why. And this

713
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 3: morning there's a report out of the Hebrew language press

714
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: where the Israelis are blaming the Vance team, saying Vance's

715
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: team is preventing Bbe from meeting with Donald Trump. I

716
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 3: don't think that that's true. I don't think if Trump

717
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: wanted to meet with me, would.

718
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: The questions of juice yeahrly.

719
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't think anybody has I kind

720
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 3: of juice to stop Trump from meeting with Bib. But

721
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: the question is why, Like, ultimately, why did he decide

722
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: Trump not to meet with Boebe? The White House came

723
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 3: out multiple times and said it's not happening as of

724
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 3: right now. So I have no idea, know, you got

725
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 3: to read tea leaves and all of that. But at

726
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 3: the same time, he comes out with some tweet being like, oh,

727
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 3: he's not going to get arrested.

728
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 1: Actually it's the Iranians who.

729
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 3: Should be are the ones who are arrested. It's like

730
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 3: he can't make up his mind about how to deal

731
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: with this man.

732
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, who knows what's going on in his head.

733
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: I really don't have a take on it either. It

734
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: could just be that like person on a personal level,

735
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 2: he finds bbe kind of annoying, you know, because they

736
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: add that, you know, he was irritated with him because

737
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: he congratulated Joe Biden on his victory, and he probably

738
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: still holds that grudge and he probably you know, maybe

739
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,839
Speaker 2: BB is to whatever. He may just find him sort

740
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 2: of personally irritating, but it doesn't really change the logic

741
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 2: of the direction that he's pushing and in terms of

742
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 2: the war with Iran.

743
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 4: So I don't know.

744
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: It's also interesting that Israel's not participating in this current

745
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 2: bombing campaign. They had a big security meeting, cabinet meeting

746
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 2: yesterday and said basically like, Okay, we're just going to

747
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: hold our position for now. We're not going to join

748
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 2: the US in this bombing campaign. I don't know if

749
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: they were invited to join or not, but it seems

750
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: that they're waiting for a bigger escalation and that they

751
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 2: would want to participate in.

752
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Finance Smotrich gave an interview yesterday in Israel,

753
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 3: and he says the State of Israel has no interest

754
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 3: in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States.

755
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: The current situation is the best one for us.

756
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 3: And you know, I think he might be right in

757
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 3: the sense where Israel, as we all know, was getting

758
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 3: the shit pounded out of it whenever the war was happening.

759
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 3: For forty days, they were genuinely rationing interceptors, so it

760
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 3: was a big problem for them, and they were not

761
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 3: accomplishing their regime change goals. When he says the current

762
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 3: situation is the best one possible for us, in some

763
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: ways he's not wrong because Israel's economy is basically fake

764
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 3: and a protectorate of the United States, so it's not

765
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 3: their economy which is in huge trouble.

766
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: It's ours.

767
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 3: So he's like, yeah, we didn't get our regime change,

768
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 3: and the Battle of Horne moves nothing to do with us.

769
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 3: That's Europe, the United States, and Asia's no regime change

770
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 3: on the horizon, So let them fight it out and

771
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 3: we'll continue to kill you know, random Palestinians in the

772
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 3: West Bank every other day just because we can.

773
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: Yeah.

774
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: Well, plus there missile inner suffances. We're down to like

775
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 2: single digits, double digits.

776
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 4: It was scraping the.

777
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 2: Bottom of the barrel there, So yeah, for them to

778
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: just say, we'll sit back and watch as plus, they

779
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,479
Speaker 2: don't care if Ron you know, destroys Kuwait and makes

780
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: the UAE unlivable or whatever, that.

781
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: They don't care at all. Yeah, you know.

782
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: And that's the funny part is if I Ron really

783
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 3: hated Israel now would be or not hate it, but

784
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 3: like if they really wanted to destroy you Israel, wipe

785
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 3: it off the face of the earth.

786
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: Now's the time, right, you're at war. We got nothing.

787
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like America's firing it you no matter what,

788
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 3: you could plow them off, but we could wipe them

789
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 3: off the face of the earth if you wanted to,

790
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: like you know, if you if you wanted to like

791
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 3: a full on military, if you've focused all your concentration,

792
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 3: or maybe they're actually a rational nation which just wants

793
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 3: to survive out of this and make a lot of

794
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: money for itself and its people and then keep its

795
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: regime in exactly the way that they decide. Just the thought.

796
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to AI. Turning down to AI.

797
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: Massive development that happened over the weekend. Let's gohead and

798
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: put this up here on the screen from Axios, which

799
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,280
Speaker 3: a general summary of the situation. Quote China just erase

800
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: America's AI lead. This is the number one non Iran

801
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 3: related story that we wanted to make sure that we

802
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 3: covered in extensive detail. So what happened is is that

803
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 3: over the weekend, Kimmy K three, which is a new

804
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 3: model by Beijing's based Moonshot AI, has now quote threatened

805
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 3: the foundations of America's AI boom. On Thursday, it dazzled developers,

806
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 3: jolted Silicon Valley, and reset the AI race. Overnight, the

807
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: AI Valuator arena actually put it in the number one

808
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 3: spot for the first time ever. Let's put C two

809
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 3: up there on the screen just to show everybody. Since

810
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,399
Speaker 3: this time, by the way, they have reevaluated and they've

811
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 3: dropped it, but at that time they said big news.

812
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 3: Kimmy K three is now the number one in front

813
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 3: end Code Arena with one thousand, six hundred and seventy

814
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: nine points, surpassing clause Fable five, a seventeen place jump

815
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 3: from the KIMMYK two model. In the front end, Kimmy

816
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 3: K three ranked number one in six of seven domains

817
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 3: brand and marketing, reference based design, data and analytics, consumer

818
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 3: product simulations and content creation tools, landing number two only

819
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 3: in gaming, behind Fable five. The full model weights will

820
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 3: be released by July twenty seven. This has basically enabled

821
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: a gold rush for Kimmi, which has found itself deluged

822
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 3: by new customers and other users. So much so, let's

823
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: put C three up here on the screen that they

824
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 3: have now released this statement. Kimmy K three has received

825
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 3: far more love than we expected. Our GPUs are feeling it.

826
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 3: Over the past forty eight hours, demand has pushed close

827
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the

828
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: experience of existing subscribers, we are temporarily pausing new subscriptions

829
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 3: and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are

830
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 3: not affected. We're adding capacity is fast as you can

831
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 3: and will reopen a new subscription spot in batches. Going forward,

832
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 3: we will also split membership into two more focus plans,

833
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 3: membership for Kimny Web app and work and then Kenny

834
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 3: Code for coding workflows. This will help us match compute

835
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 3: more precisely and keep the experience stable.

836
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: Thank you for your patience and understanding.

837
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 3: A lot of people reacted to this in AWE because

838
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 3: all of the other American companies they take your money.

839
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 3: One person responded, wait, so you're refusing to take money

840
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 3: to give people a better user experience. You're not taking

841
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 3: your best model out of the plans, and you're not

842
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,280
Speaker 3: bullshitting your users into thinking.

843
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: So very strange.

844
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 3: American customers are so used they'll take your money, then

845
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 3: they take the top model away, and then there's some

846
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 3: fuckery or something that's behind the scenes, and then they

847
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: rate limit you anyway, So a little bit of a

848
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 3: better Chinese customer experience, but.

849
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 4: This has caused like can I just stay on that note.

850
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 2: By the way, the very next time I logged into Claude,

851
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 2: got a message from aanthropic that's like, hey, oh, I know,

852
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: here's one hundred dollars credit to use stable.

853
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 3: Five our company our company account.

854
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 1: They keeps bombarding me by feeble five credit. I'm like,

855
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 1: we're fucking good man. You know we're not doing any

856
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: coding stuff over here.

857
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, but yeah, that's a little bit different. And by

858
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 3: the way, of course, we have a company account here

859
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 3: for a Claude and yet somehow they're still shaking.

860
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: Me down for money.

861
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 3: So a little interesting in terms of the difference in

862
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: what's going on. But you know, geopolitically, it's an earthquake moment,

863
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 3: and that's really what has been set off this new

864
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 3: discussion in the White House where let's put C five

865
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 3: up here on the screen. In the last three days,

866
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 3: there has now been an internal civil war over whether

867
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: they should just ban these cutting edge Chinese models that

868
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: which would lock in the dominance of Open Ai and

869
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 3: Anthropic in the US market. Basically, it's a divide between

870
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 3: the AI companies themselves, Open Ai and Anthropic, which are

871
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 3: saying that these open source and or Chinese subsidized AI companies,

872
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 3: which are able to charge dramatically less than what the

873
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: US companies are, would destroy their businesses and make it

874
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 3: completely unable for them to go IPO to remain dominant.

875
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 3: On the other side are the pro competition voices who say, actually,

876
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 3: the Chinese AI model is a kick in the ass,

877
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: exactly what the American companies need, and if anything, it

878
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: shows that the government is that the government has put

879
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 3: too much regulation on the AI companies. This voice, I

880
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 3: would say, is more like the David sachsfront, which is

881
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 3: enabled by a particular tweet I pulled it actually for

882
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 3: our segment. I have a report full of security issues

883
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,879
Speaker 3: of software I'm working on. Codex won't fix them because

884
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 3: of cyberguardrails. Fable won't fix them because of CyberGuard rails.

885
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: Kimmy K three fixed all of them, no restriction, It

886
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 3: just gets the job done. This will end badly for

887
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 3: open AI and Anthropic. The criticism there, elevated by Sachs

888
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 3: is that cyberguardrails and so called security movement within the

889
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 3: AI companies is actually holding back, you know, the competition.

890
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: So you can see how all of this.

891
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,439
Speaker 3: Is being used by open AI on Anthropic, which are like, hey,

892
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 3: you know, they're coming after us, They're stealing our technology

893
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: and they're undercutting us from one side. Some of the

894
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 3: pro AI voices with competition open source voices are like, no,

895
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 3: this is good and if anything, we just need to

896
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 3: let it all rip. Here in the US and the

897
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 3: way the China is, there's a medium ground kind of

898
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 3: analyst position which I kind of find myself in where

899
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: you're like.

900
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: Wow, this is crazy. Yeah, you're like well, you're like okay,

901
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: so well it destroys the economics of it. I think,

902
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: did you pull the Chamath thing?

903
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 4: Yeah?

904
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 1: Did? Why don't you summarize it?

905
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 5: Yeah?

906
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 4: Good, go ahead and put this up on the screen.

907
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 2: Guys. Is the last element in the block. So this

908
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 2: is Chamat, who obviously very close with David Zachs. He

909
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 2: says the leading AI has already forked into two options,

910
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 2: a a closed source American that costs twenty six to

911
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 2: fifty six per one million tokens, or an open weight

912
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: Chinese that cost fifty cents to one dollar per one

913
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 2: million tokens. If you force American companies to spend fifty

914
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 2: to one hundred times more than their competitors abroad, here's

915
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 2: what will happen on American companies spending fifty two one

916
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: hundred times will at some point become financially impaired. The

917
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 2: stock market will creater. This is the equivalent of the

918
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: US government saying we can only buy oil at eight

919
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,320
Speaker 2: hundred dollars a barrel, even when the free market sells

920
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 2: the same oil for eighty dollars a barrel.

921
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: Two.

922
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 2: In the short term, the revenues of the closed American

923
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 2: labs may remain high, But when their revenue will also

924
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 2: creater because their customers in the US will be impaired

925
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 2: and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions,

926
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 2: this would be a terribly self defeating form of intervention

927
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 2: if it were to happen. There is so much to say.

928
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,720
Speaker 2: I mean, he's right on the economics, right. The Chinese

929
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 2: models are vastly, vastly cheaper, and now they are affected.

930
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 2: You know, the thing that the American models had in

931
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 2: the past is they were a little bit better. They

932
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 2: were like six months ahead of the Chinese models. They're

933
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 2: not anymore. And it's not just Kimmy K three. There's

934
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 2: a few other models that have already been released in

935
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 2: the wake of Kimmy K three that are basically at

936
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,720
Speaker 2: the same level. A lot of competition within China, within

937
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 2: China between these different models and labs that are operating

938
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 2: in that space as well, so sort of, I don't know, ironically, hilariously, whatever,

939
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 2: however you want to describe it. Part of the reason

940
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: why their models are so much cheaper and so much

941
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 2: more efficient is because we ban them from having the

942
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: top of the line chips, so they were unable to

943
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 2: pursue the same like, let's just throw as much compute

944
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 2: at it as possible as our closed labs. So they

945
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 2: decided to go in this open model direction and try

946
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 2: to push the efficiency as much as possible.

947
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 4: And now it's paying off for them.

948
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: So in some ways, the policy that we thought would

949
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 2: help secure our company's AI lead is exactly what is

950
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 2: undercutting them at this point. So that's one aspect of this.

951
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: You know, from a business perspective, Anthropic and Open AI

952
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 2: these companies are not profitable. They have massive amounts of debt,

953
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: and they're able to float it because investors look at

954
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 2: the possibility of getting rid of the labor force and

955
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 2: all of these productivity gains and think that it's worth

956
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: the investment, and think that large companies in particular will

957
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 2: pay a lot of money to Anthropic and Open AI

958
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 2: once they get to the point where that labor saving

959
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 2: technology is truly truly comes of age and can be

960
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 2: fully implemented. That is what the whole bet is based upon.

961
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:18,919
Speaker 2: Kimmi K three open source model and other similar positioned competitors.

962
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 2: That just kills the economics. I mean just there's no

963
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 2: doubt about it. It kills the economics. Why are you

964
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 2: going to think that an American company is going to

965
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 2: choose Anthropic when they could choose something that's just as good,

966
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: that's way way cheaper. Of course, they're going to do that.

967
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: Microsoft already has announced they're evaluating Kimmy K three to

968
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: use with their copilot and to host on their platform.

969
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 4: Here's the other thing.

970
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 1: They own a stake in open ai too.

971
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 4: That's right, That's exactly right.

972
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:47,479
Speaker 2: And here's the other thing too, is okay, open model

973
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 2: versus closed model?

974
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 4: What does that mean?

975
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 2: Open source model means that anyone can get access to

976
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,240
Speaker 2: the model weights, which is the whole secret sauce behind

977
00:45:56,280 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 2: this thing. They can host it themselves, and you actually can't. Really,

978
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 2: it would be very difficult for the government even to

979
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 2: be able to block all American companies from using these models. Now,

980
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 2: what they could do is say, basically, you're not going

981
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: to contract with the US government, You're not going to

982
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 2: contract with Pentagon if you're using any of these models.

983
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 2: And that would work for all the large players, but

984
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: a lot of small players would still use the Chinese

985
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 2: models because they're not doing business with the US federal government.

986
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 2: So there's that if they do decide to ban the

987
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 2: Chinese models or make it functionally impossible for large US

988
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 2: corporations to use the Chinese models, there is no way

989
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 2: to look at that other than a bailout for Anthropic

990
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: and open Ai. However, because so much of our economy

991
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 2: is bet on the AI space.

992
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 4: It could be the case that if.

993
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 2: You don't prop up these now sort of like behind

994
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 2: the eight ball overly expensive models, that the whole ecosystem

995
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 2: could come crashing down. Now, what Chamath and others say

996
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: is that's fogus. Just because these frontier models turn out

997
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 2: to not be a good business and not profitable, that

998
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 2: doesn't change the demand for data centers and all the

999
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 2: other ecosystem that goes into this, so it won't be

1000
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: this catastrophic thing for the economy. Anthropic and open AI

1001
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: aren't even public yet, so they're not the things that

1002
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 2: are propping up the stock market.

1003
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:16,960
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1004
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 2: Maybe that's right, but it's hard for me to imagine

1005
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,240
Speaker 2: that that is the case. Sorry this is long winded,

1006
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 2: but the you know, the TLDR is that I think,

1007
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 2: whether it happens now or in the future, we are

1008
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:32,240
Speaker 2: very likely to move into a situation where the AI

1009
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 2: models are sort of like the Internet. It's not the

1010
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:37,240
Speaker 2: place where people are making gobs and gobs of money.

1011
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,799
Speaker 2: It's all in the layers, the applications, what you do

1012
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: with the Internet, there is a lot of you know,

1013
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:43,879
Speaker 2: it's going to be profoundly transformational.

1014
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 4: I think that is true.

1015
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 2: But the big you know, the business models are going

1016
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: to be what do you do with this?

1017
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: And the models themselves.

1018
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 2: Are like a utility or like the pipes, or like

1019
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 2: the internet, a you know, sort of common good thing

1020
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 2: that everyone has access to more or less, and is

1021
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 2: not the place where you're making these astronomical, world changing returns.

1022
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 6: Yeah.

1023
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:07,919
Speaker 3: I mean, we're running a bit short on times because

1024
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 3: we want to get to anti Jacobs and there's so

1025
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: much to say. I do think ultimately, what this demonstrates

1026
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 3: is the real problem for the overall US economy, the

1027
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,800
Speaker 3: US economy, and this reminds me a lot of the

1028
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 3: chips in general. Chip design is an industry which the

1029
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 3: America dominates.

1030
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 1: We designed the.

1031
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,720
Speaker 3: Best chips, but we never made the actual chips themselves.

1032
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 3: We allowed all that to be outsourced. So, from what

1033
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 3: I can understand, the deliberate frontier model business model is

1034
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 3: they spend oodles of money, trillions of dollars literally in

1035
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 3: the development of these, but they haven't figured out the

1036
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 3: actual way to price it so that they can make

1037
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 3: up for what's ultimately a money losing product. The Chinese

1038
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: basically are waiting for frontier model development using the open

1039
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 3: weight strategy. They also have a force constraint because of

1040
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 3: AI chip bands export bands. They had to train themselves

1041
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,839
Speaker 3: to be more efficient, which America never trained itself to

1042
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 3: do so.

1043
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 1: And then on top of that, there's.

1044
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:08,320
Speaker 3: A deliberate pricing strategy of the Chinese government where they subsidized, incentivize,

1045
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 3: and create and ecosystems such that they don't have to

1046
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 3: charge exactly at market price and they can have competition

1047
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 3: the ultimate and the sole goal.

1048
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: Very much.

1049
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 3: How they did EV's Like to say China just blessed

1050
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:24,280
Speaker 3: the BYD and said go forth and create, It's not true.

1051
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:27,919
Speaker 3: China's EV sector was propped up at a basic level

1052
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 3: from the Chinese.

1053
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 4: Government seedd an entire ecosystem.

1054
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 3: And then from there they were like, you guys, fight

1055
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 3: it out. I mean, one day some guy who can

1056
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 3: speak both languages will write a great book about that competition,

1057
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 3: because that is one of the most interesting stories of

1058
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 3: the last two decades.

1059
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 1: Like that business the genuine war.

1060
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 3: Like if you think our business price strategies and all

1061
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 3: that are interesting, it all just played out there one

1062
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 3: of the most capitalist wars in history. But it was

1063
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 3: controlled shaped and laid the groundwork for by the government.

1064
00:49:57,200 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 3: That's basically what they're doing here with That's basically what

1065
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,879
Speaker 3: they're doing in China with AI and Jijiping just gave

1066
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 3: a speech about AI.

1067
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:06,239
Speaker 1: Why should all be.

1068
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 3: Open source and more beneficial to the world Open AIS

1069
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 3: chief policy officer put out a long essay Yesterday's a

1070
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 3: former Trump administration official.

1071
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 1: This guy's out here being like, what are we going

1072
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 1: to do?

1073
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 3: Like, how can we how are we supposed to survive

1074
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 3: in this type of system?

1075
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: What are what you know?

1076
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 3: How can we be expected to compete in the future?

1077
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 3: And these are I mean there's trillions in both cases.

1078
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 3: They both expect to be value. They're currently valued in

1079
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 3: terms of the private market around the trillion dollars each.

1080
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 1: So that's two trillion in overall value.

1081
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,919
Speaker 3: And if that gets i mean even called by half,

1082
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 3: I mean, that's a catastrophe, right for the overall economy,

1083
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 3: not for maybe for US, but it's like for them.

1084
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,240
Speaker 3: For the data center build out, I mean, the capital

1085
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 3: crunch that would follow would be dot Com esque and

1086
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 3: the blowout from our overall, not to even mention.

1087
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 2: That's the case too. But then I look at the

1088
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 2: stock market and it's like, no, that's fine.

1089
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: It's up today. Yeah, okay, Actually I don't.

1090
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 4: Know what do I know?

1091
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1092
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 2: I mean I've been thinking about some parallels with the

1093
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 2: American auto industry, which I think is really in trouble.

1094
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 2: There's a big piece in the Wall Street Journal about

1095
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 2: how the fact that you had a Biden policy that

1096
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 2: was pushing EV's, there was some significant research and development,

1097
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 2: there were some improvements, new models coming out.

1098
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 4: Then Trump comes.

1099
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 2: In cuts all the subsidies, and you know, now they're

1100
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: shelving all the and ends the buildout of a charging network,

1101
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 2: which is one of the big barriers in a vast

1102
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: country such as ours, and so now they're pairing back,

1103
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: they're not investing in new research. So meanwhile, b WHYD

1104
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 2: and other Chinese car companies too are just lapping us

1105
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 2: in terms of technology. I mean, they're vastly ahead of

1106
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 2: even Tesla. They are wildly cheaper than certainly than Tesla

1107
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 2: or any of the other evs on the American market.

1108
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 2: And so by protecting the American auto industry from that

1109
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:59,320
Speaker 2: Chinese EV competition, you know, you're allowing them to persist longer.

1110
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 2: But it really is a pretty dim trajectory for them,

1111
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 2: because the rest of the world is going ev I mean,

1112
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,959
Speaker 2: this is this is happening right and at a really

1113
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 2: quite rapid clip. Once you have the charging infrastructure in place,

1114
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 2: it is a superior technology, There's just no doubt about it.

1115
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 2: That is where the future lies, and our car companies

1116
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 2: are being left behind. So if you have a similar

1117
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: situation where the American models are basically protected, yeah, that

1118
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 2: will allow them to persist. It will function effectively as

1119
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 2: a bailout for them. Corporate large corporations based here in

1120
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 2: the US will use their models, etc. But you're sort

1121
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: of setting yourself up for a broader failure in the

1122
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 2: world as these Chinese models continue to progress and are

1123
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 2: adopted by the entire rest of the world and by

1124
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 2: small companies by the way, here in the US, which

1125
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:51,439
Speaker 2: will just you know, sort of flo out the US

1126
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 2: regulation or go abroad so that they can use the

1127
00:52:55,960 --> 00:53:00,839
Speaker 2: much cheaper Chinese models. So, I don't know, to conundrum

1128
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:05,399
Speaker 2: and with major major consequences for the economy for these

1129
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:08,399
Speaker 2: frontier labs, and you know, for the way that we're

1130
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 2: all going to interact with this stuff going forward.

1131
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 3: Very true, all right, we got Annie Jacobson's standing Biolet's

1132
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 3: get to her. Very excited now to be joined by

1133
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 3: Annie Jacobson, one of my favorite authors and the author

1134
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 3: of this new book, Biological War comes on the heels

1135
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 3: of Nuclear war A scenario. Here we have Biological War

1136
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 3: a scenario. She is also the author of multiple New

1137
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 3: York Times best selling books, one of my personal favorites,

1138
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 3: Operation Paperclip. Very excited now to be joined by her,

1139
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 3: truly one of my favorite contemporary authors of all time.

1140
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:40,240
Speaker 1: Annie, thank you so much for joining.

1141
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 6: Us, well, thank you for having me, thank you for

1142
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 6: that intro, of.

1143
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 3: Course, and so you have now come out with this

1144
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 3: new book, Biological War. It is a warning of what

1145
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 3: you say could be even more of a terrifying apocalypse

1146
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 3: for mankind and for the United States. You divulge not

1147
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 3: only some of the reporting, but where you've uncovered a

1148
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 3: lot of the ways the United States is set up

1149
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 3: expec or to deal with the potential biological war, but

1150
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: also detail how exactly such a thing would happen. What

1151
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 3: inspired you to write this book after the Nuclear War book?

1152
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 6: It was many of my sources who also work in

1153
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 6: counter proliferation. It's a fancy word for keeping weapons of

1154
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 6: mass destruction out of bad guys hands, and many of

1155
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 6: them said, Annie, after you do nuclear you have to

1156
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 6: look at bio. I did not realize what an extraordinary

1157
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 6: threat it was until I really drilled down on the scenario.

1158
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 2: And so Annie talk to us about why it's such

1159
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,959
Speaker 2: a threat and what the vulnerabilities really are that people

1160
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 2: should be concerned about.

1161
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 6: One of the most stunning facts I learned was in

1162
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 6: a defense department doctrine sort of a threat spectrum, and

1163
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 6: it defines nuclear weapons as the most destructive, and it

1164
00:54:55,640 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 6: defines biological weapons as the greatest overall threat. And that

1165
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 6: has to do with this incredibly low barrier for entry.

1166
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 6: Unlike nuclear weapons, which are controlled. You know, first of all,

1167
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 6: they're very hard to access because you have to have

1168
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 6: fissile material, you have to have weapons systems for delivery,

1169
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 6: and they're controlled by a nation state's nuclear command. And

1170
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 6: controlled biological weapons, I learned, particularly now with AI systems

1171
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 6: in play, can be made in a basement by sort

1172
00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 6: of a high school student, if you will, with a

1173
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 6: very low knowledge of biology. That is terrifying.

1174
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1175
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 3: We actually, just before you came in, we're talking about

1176
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,839
Speaker 3: these open source models and potential guardrails and more. I

1177
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 3: know that you've highlighted the AI risk, but you've also

1178
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 3: talked about many of these labs. We have a map

1179
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 3: that we can put up here on the screen, which

1180
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 3: were provided to us by your team. These BSL four

1181
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 3: labs that are all around the world. Many of us

1182
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:59,240
Speaker 3: learn about some of these types of lads with COVID

1183
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,280
Speaker 3: and the of the COVID virus, but tell us about

1184
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:05,720
Speaker 3: the danger that has posed for a biological war scenario,

1185
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:08,879
Speaker 3: potentially even a lab leak of a biological apocalypse.

1186
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, thanks for showing that map, and

1187
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 6: let's give credit to the academics and scientists who keep

1188
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 6: track of those labs because they are there is no

1189
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:24,720
Speaker 6: government organization monitoring this. There are three thousand, five hundred

1190
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 6: BSL three labs around the world in places of you know,

1191
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 6: where wars are going on. You can work on plague

1192
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 6: and anthrax, hantavirus, and a BSL three lab. Ninety percent

1193
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 6: of those labs do not have safety standards. An astonishing fact.

1194
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 6: BSL four labs that's like the CDC's lab in Atlanta,

1195
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 6: the Defense Department's lab at Fort Dietrich. These are the

1196
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:56,319
Speaker 6: highest level of biosafety. There are now seventeen in the

1197
00:56:56,440 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 6: United States and one hundred and ten around the world.

1198
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 2: Help people understand because I think everybody knows that, or

1199
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:08,399
Speaker 2: most people know biological weapons are technically illegal. So how

1200
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 2: is this sort of bioengineering allowed?

1201
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 4: What enables this sort.

1202
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 2: Of research which we all learned, you know, with devastating consequences,

1203
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: can be extremely dangerous to humanity.

1204
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 6: Well, there's lots of different euphemisms for genetic engineering in

1205
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 6: this world. There's dual use research of concern. Everyone knows

1206
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 6: about dual use. You can use a kitchen knife to

1207
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 6: make your dinner or to kill someone. So then there's

1208
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 6: this idea of gain of function, which is exactly like

1209
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 6: it sounds. You modify, genetically modify a pathogen to give

1210
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 6: it more function, be it virulence, be it transmissibility, to

1211
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 6: defeat a countermeasure. This is often done in the name

1212
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 6: of science, in the name of medical countermeasures, looking for vaccines,

1213
00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 6: looking for antibiotics to defer feet a biological weapon in

1214
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 6: the event of an attack or incident. But you know,

1215
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 6: interviewing presidential advisors as I did, there's another side of

1216
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 6: the equation. People like Andy Weber, who is Obama's top

1217
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 6: biological weapons advisor will tell you gain of function is

1218
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 6: a euphemism for biological weapons engineering, and he is not alone, right.

1219
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 3: And of course we learned quite a bit about that

1220
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 3: term after the leak of COVID from the Wuhan lab.

1221
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 3: But what from the COVID experience did you see in

1222
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 3: terms of the breakdown of the US health infrastructure. A

1223
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 3: lot of the lack of trust between the mainstream population

1224
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 3: and the authorities that has also woven into this narrative

1225
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:48,919
Speaker 3: that you've written in Biological War.

1226
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 6: I think you pointed out like a really important point

1227
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 6: I found too. One In terms of lessons learned from COVID,

1228
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 6: or rather maybe lessons not learned, Number one was the

1229
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 6: United States is wofully unprepared despite spending billions of dollars.

1230
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 6: And I quickly take the reader through some of those numbers.

1231
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 6: But you know, it's remarkable to think that the case

1232
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 6: fatality rate of COVID was one percent. So that's the

1233
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 6: number of people per one hundred who die of the

1234
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 6: disease who catch the disease. There are pathogens out there

1235
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 6: with a hundred percent case fatality rate, and so that

1236
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:34,439
Speaker 6: fact that we are unprepared should really make people wake

1237
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 6: up and pay attention to what can be done. The

1238
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 6: second important point is what you mentioned, which is the

1239
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 6: absolute fracturing of public opinion about science, about medicine, about

1240
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 6: the trustworthiness of public health officials. This was a disaster

1241
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 6: in COVID, and to my eye, not only has it

1242
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,200
Speaker 6: not been sort of resolved, there hasn't been a sort

1243
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 6: of you know, denument about what really happened, and Okay,

1244
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 6: this happened, let's move on because this is a real threat. Instead,

1245
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 6: you just have this two sides digging deeper into their positions,

1246
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 6: and this is at the peril of the American people.

1247
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 2: Well, and let's talk about some of the moves that

1248
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 2: Trump administration has made. RFK Junior installed as HHS secretary.

1249
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 2: There have been something like twenty five percent of the

1250
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 2: CDC workforce which has been cut. We've withdrawn from the

1251
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 2: World Health Organization. You know, are you concerned when you

1252
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 2: see those cuts that that further degrades our readiness.

1253
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 6: I'm concerned because of the narrative. I'm concerned because what

1254
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 6: you know, the actions, of course, and those really need

1255
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 6: to be looked at, but the narrative on both sides.

1256
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:46,240
Speaker 6: I am doing this because we are doing this, because

1257
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:51,480
Speaker 6: it's very rarely in the name of the general public.

1258
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 6: It's instead, you know, sort of a dig at the

1259
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:58,240
Speaker 6: political opponent. And again I do not write about politics.

1260
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 6: I try to stay above the friend so that I

1261
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:03,440
Speaker 6: can just deliver the facts. But I think people that

1262
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 6: read bi biological war as an area and it's just

1263
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 6: one scenario, it's not only a scenario, will astonished when

1264
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 6: they learn of the government's own plans in the event

1265
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 6: of an outbreak or an incident of a genetically modified pathogen.

1266
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 6: When the people learn that the government has plans to

1267
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 6: save itself. It's a very classified program that I learned

1268
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 6: about from one of the authors of the program who

1269
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 6: took me. And therefore you up to the edge of

1270
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 6: what can legally be known about this program called devolution.

1271
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 6: You learn that there are plans in place for certain

1272
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 6: components of the government while in essence hate to be

1273
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 6: a dramatist here, but the rest of us die miserable

1274
01:01:49,360 --> 01:01:51,920
Speaker 6: deaths of some kind of horrible pathogen.

1275
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, you write that it's a classified last resort program

1276
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 3: that will transfer power to a hidden leadership group. So

1277
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:00,920
Speaker 3: can you maybe go into that a little bit more so,

1278
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:03,439
Speaker 3: we're not talking about elected officials necessarily. We're talking about

1279
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 3: civilian or military officials who would effectively govern or govern

1280
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 3: whatever's rests or left of us.

1281
01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 6: Absolutely, the program is even spookier than you would think.

1282
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 6: It's called devolution or devolution depends on how you pronounce it.

1283
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 6: I was taken through some of the details by Craig Fugate,

1284
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 6: who was Obama's former FEMA director and who signed off

1285
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 6: on the sort of last monograph about this program, which

1286
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 6: is classified. The name Devolution is not classified, and that's

1287
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 6: why we can learn a little bit about it from him.

1288
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 6: But it's a pre selected, pre designated subset of individuals

1289
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 6: who will move off to these secret sites bunkers, if

1290
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:52,120
Speaker 6: you will, called cold sites, warm sites, and hot sites,

1291
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 6: and they take over plans to restore the Constitution in

1292
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,640
Speaker 6: the event of anarchy and insurrection and this, you know,

1293
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 6: it's pretty astonishing to learn that. The idea is that

1294
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,880
Speaker 6: most of the powers that be that are in power

1295
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 6: will likely die, and so there has to be this

1296
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 6: secondary group of individuals. Those are the people you know

1297
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 6: who have a go bag stashed in the trunk of

1298
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 6: their car.

1299
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 2: So tell us a little bit more about this, because

1300
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:24,000
Speaker 2: it sounds wild. It sounds like the sort of thing

1301
01:03:24,080 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 2: like Alex Jones will be ranting or raving about. And

1302
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 2: yet you have, you know, hard reporting on the reality

1303
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 2: of this lasts or plan in what type of event

1304
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 2: would this process be triggered? Who has selected these people?

1305
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 2: Who decides that, okay, it's a devolution time? How does

1306
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 2: this all work?

1307
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: Yes?

1308
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 6: And anyone who doubts the reality of this can certainly

1309
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 6: google FCD one Federal Continuity Directive one. And that's the

1310
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 6: unclassified version of what I'm talking about. And you know,

1311
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 6: the list itself is classified. Who has been chosen, who

1312
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 6: is on that list is classified. What we can know

1313
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 6: is that the program actually exists, and the event that

1314
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 6: would trigger it is what is called a near extinction

1315
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 6: level event. It's kind of exactly like it sounds, which

1316
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 6: in itself is terribly unsettling. And the protocol that triggers it,

1317
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 6: I learned, is something called COGCN, and that stands for

1318
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:35,320
Speaker 6: Continuity of Government Readiness Condition, and in this case, it

1319
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 6: would be one number one. COGCN one triggers devolution. The

1320
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:42,440
Speaker 6: way that Fugate explained it to me, many people are

1321
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 6: familiar with deaf con, the system for the of defense

1322
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 6: readiness that the Defense Department runs by, And of course

1323
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 6: def Con one is nuclear war. And so you have

1324
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 6: this idea that COGCN one in a biological attack or

1325
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:01,880
Speaker 6: incident does have to be an attack. It can be

1326
01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 6: a lab league and if it begins to take over,

1327
01:05:05,640 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 6: an anarchy and insurrection occurs, which is what many of

1328
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:15,040
Speaker 6: these Defense Department wargames I looked at Anticipate were at devolution.

1329
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 3: Well, what concerns me about that ANNIE is that defcon

1330
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:20,320
Speaker 3: one is a definable condition that means the United States

1331
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 3: is under immediate nuclear attack COGCON one. I mean, who

1332
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:27,880
Speaker 3: defines what an extinction level event is like? Is there

1333
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 3: a percent I mean obviously you don't know exactly, but

1334
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:33,800
Speaker 3: like a percent lethality a lab league? Could it be

1335
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,440
Speaker 3: used potentially as a pretext for a seizure of power?

1336
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:39,840
Speaker 3: I mean, can you maybe go into a little bit

1337
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 3: of that, and then some more on the war games

1338
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 3: as well, which I know that you write about of

1339
01:05:43,720 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 3: the worry within the wargames that the civilians may technically

1340
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:49,960
Speaker 3: be in control, but they lack the ability to actually

1341
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:53,400
Speaker 3: enforce many of the laws that they necessarily would want to,

1342
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 3: which would enable effectively like a military takeover.

1343
01:05:56,920 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 6: One of the most stunning things about really looking at

1344
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 6: a biological attack or incident was that the real fear

1345
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 6: of the Defense Department and its partners HHS, you know, FEMA, DHS,

1346
01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 6: the fear is the secondary effects, the fear of infection.

1347
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 6: That is a quote I came across often, fear of

1348
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 6: infection is what will likely lead to anarchy and insurrection,

1349
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 6: and we all know what that's like. There's this visceral

1350
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 6: sense of you know, getting a disease, and of course

1351
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:33,560
Speaker 6: everyone's thinking, I have to make sure I don't catch this,

1352
01:06:34,040 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 6: and that's where you have insurrection come in. And so

1353
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:42,960
Speaker 6: what precisely triggers the level of COGCN. I certainly want

1354
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:45,480
Speaker 6: to know more, and I would hope that now that

1355
01:06:45,520 --> 01:06:49,400
Speaker 6: I've put some of this information into the public discourse,

1356
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 6: that others would begin to really drill down on this

1357
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 6: through foyas and other means and get awareness to the

1358
01:06:56,840 --> 01:07:00,240
Speaker 6: public about what we're up against. Not just to sort

1359
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 6: of be furious with the government that there's a group

1360
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,720
Speaker 6: that will save itself, but you know the point of

1361
01:07:05,760 --> 01:07:08,760
Speaker 6: me writing a book like this and nuclear war is

1362
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 6: not panic as much as I believe it is pressure,

1363
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:17,320
Speaker 6: pressure to begin looking at what systems need to be

1364
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:19,960
Speaker 6: put in place to protect all of us, because in

1365
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 6: the event of a near extinction level event, it's exactly

1366
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 6: like it sounds, we all die.

1367
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 2: Sober mentioned earlier, we just did a block on Kimmy

1368
01:07:28,680 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 2: K three and the development of these very powerful AI

1369
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:36,480
Speaker 2: tools which are now widely available with really no safety

1370
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 2: guardrails to speak of. How much does this concern you

1371
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:43,040
Speaker 2: when you're looking at these developments, you know what thoughts

1372
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:45,960
Speaker 2: are going through your head about the potential consequences.

1373
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 6: It's interesting you should ask that question, because I've often

1374
01:07:49,560 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 6: thought about that, and I'll give you a raally sort

1375
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 6: of disquieting answer, which is that last week I was

1376
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 6: asked to do a Q and A for DARPA for

1377
01:07:58,040 --> 01:08:04,000
Speaker 6: their Biology, Science and Technology Study group, and that was

1378
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 6: raised by others. There was a part of that Q

1379
01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 6: and A where I was just listening and one of

1380
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:14,440
Speaker 6: the charts that was put up was precisely how dangerous

1381
01:08:14,840 --> 01:08:19,880
Speaker 6: AI and biology are together. And there was even talk

1382
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:23,519
Speaker 6: about whether or not a situation needed to come about

1383
01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 6: where the plug would be pulled. It's just a fascinating

1384
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 6: concept that you could actually pull the plug on bio

1385
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 6: and AI. And from what I understand, the real hurdle

1386
01:08:36,120 --> 01:08:42,400
Speaker 6: in that is getting all six CEOs of these AI

1387
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:47,040
Speaker 6: companies to agree to all pull the plug, which is

1388
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 6: a very very bizarre concept when you're a national security

1389
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:53,040
Speaker 6: reporter who's been looking at this for twenty years and

1390
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:57,639
Speaker 6: is suddenly realizing this is actually true, that now there

1391
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:02,000
Speaker 6: is more power in the hands of six private individuals

1392
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:07,600
Speaker 6: full stop. Then the government organization that I myself have

1393
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:10,920
Speaker 6: written about DARPA, which I used to say when I

1394
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:13,880
Speaker 6: wrote the book The Pentagon's Brain, which published, you know,

1395
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 6: ten years ago, I used to say, no one is

1396
01:09:17,640 --> 01:09:22,720
Speaker 6: more scientifically advanced than DARPA, and I must shift that

1397
01:09:22,840 --> 01:09:25,679
Speaker 6: statement now based on new information.

1398
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:26,960
Speaker 1: That's fascinating.

1399
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, you really wrote the book on DARPA and blew

1400
01:09:29,920 --> 01:09:31,760
Speaker 3: a lot of the you know, so nobody really knew

1401
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 3: anything about it until I think your book came out.

1402
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 3: And so when you've written now multiple of these successes

1403
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:41,080
Speaker 3: from DARPA to nuclear war scenario to biological war a

1404
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 3: scenario kind of zooming out when you say you want

1405
01:09:45,120 --> 01:09:47,599
Speaker 3: to provide information so that things could be done. What

1406
01:09:47,640 --> 01:09:51,040
Speaker 3: recommendations then would you make Is it just awareness? Conversations

1407
01:09:51,360 --> 01:09:54,759
Speaker 3: like these so people like us know, for elected leaders,

1408
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 3: what should they be thinking about as they deal with

1409
01:09:57,280 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 3: the hullabluo of whatever is in the news today while

1410
01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 3: this kind of lurks in the shadows behind them.

1411
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:06,680
Speaker 6: I am an old school journalist trained that way, so

1412
01:10:06,800 --> 01:10:11,400
Speaker 6: I stay out of tribal politics. I think it's really

1413
01:10:11,439 --> 01:10:14,920
Speaker 6: important for people to sort of lay down their swords

1414
01:10:15,360 --> 01:10:20,519
Speaker 6: and begin to realize that uncertainty is a pathway towards success.

1415
01:10:21,040 --> 01:10:24,479
Speaker 6: If you can admit, you know, I don't really know,

1416
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 6: then I believe we can begin to make progress. You know.

1417
01:10:29,160 --> 01:10:33,080
Speaker 6: An interesting point that I raise in the book, and

1418
01:10:33,160 --> 01:10:36,120
Speaker 6: I stay away from sort of, you know, spending too

1419
01:10:36,160 --> 01:10:40,880
Speaker 6: much time on COVID, but a pathogen that is airborne

1420
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:47,880
Speaker 6: is the biggest fear within the biological community. Airborne means

1421
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:53,040
Speaker 6: the weapon system is our lungs, individual human lungs. For

1422
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 6: the first three months of the COVID pandemic, the WHO

1423
01:10:57,240 --> 01:11:00,880
Speaker 6: and the CDC tweeted repeatedly. I have a copy of

1424
01:11:00,920 --> 01:11:05,760
Speaker 6: the tweet in my book. COVID not airborne, not was

1425
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:10,599
Speaker 6: in capital letters. Millions of people were dying and they

1426
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:13,559
Speaker 6: were tweeting this, and of course we now know COVID

1427
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 6: was airborne. COVID is airborne, COVID is a respiratory disease,

1428
01:11:19,040 --> 01:11:23,679
Speaker 6: that is how it was being transmitted. And yet when

1429
01:11:23,680 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 6: I tried to get an answer from who from CDC,

1430
01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 6: why haven't you gone on the record and corrected this, apologized,

1431
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:38,240
Speaker 6: explain to people that uncertainty is inherent in biology. We

1432
01:11:38,360 --> 01:11:42,880
Speaker 6: all have different physiology. The answer was no comment.

1433
01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:45,080
Speaker 4: Annie.

1434
01:11:45,160 --> 01:11:47,960
Speaker 2: Lastly, since we have you and we've been covering the

1435
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 2: Iran war with great interest, we've been covering Russian Ukraine

1436
01:11:52,000 --> 01:11:54,840
Speaker 2: with a lot of interest. Obviously, nuclear weapons are at

1437
01:11:54,840 --> 01:11:57,800
Speaker 2: the heart of both of these conflicts. You know, as

1438
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:03,759
Speaker 2: you survey the current geo political landscape, what conflagrations concern

1439
01:12:03,880 --> 01:12:06,559
Speaker 2: you the most with regard to a potential break of

1440
01:12:06,600 --> 01:12:07,840
Speaker 2: the nuclear taboo.

1441
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:12,000
Speaker 6: Well, nuclear threats to may are profoundly dangerous. I've looked

1442
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:14,799
Speaker 6: at this since the book Nuclear War as Scenario first

1443
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:18,639
Speaker 6: published and putin was threatening the use of nuclear weapons,

1444
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:22,639
Speaker 6: which is extremely dangerous. But we must be factual here.

1445
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:27,080
Speaker 6: The current president in his first administration sort of set

1446
01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:32,400
Speaker 6: the bar by essentially, you know, rhetorically threatening nuclear war

1447
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:35,720
Speaker 6: with North Korea, and we all remember that exchange from

1448
01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:40,439
Speaker 6: the first Trump administration. So I believe that threats are

1449
01:12:40,479 --> 01:12:43,799
Speaker 6: extremely dangerous. And this is because I know from looking

1450
01:12:44,120 --> 01:12:50,040
Speaker 6: at Pentagon wargames involving nuclear war, that everybody in the

1451
01:12:50,040 --> 01:12:55,120
Speaker 6: Defense Department knows that nuclear war, no matter how it begins,

1452
01:12:56,000 --> 01:13:01,360
Speaker 6: only ends in one way, and that is total apocalyptic annihilation.

1453
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:04,320
Speaker 1: Well, Annie, as as always, thank you so much for

1454
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 1: joining us. I'm going to be reading the book.

1455
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:08,920
Speaker 3: I hope everybody reads the book, and then I hope

1456
01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 3: they pick up the rest of your catalog everything you've

1457
01:13:11,120 --> 01:13:13,200
Speaker 3: ever written. Again, as I said, one of my favorite

1458
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:15,280
Speaker 3: contemporary authors, thank you so much for joining us.

1459
01:13:15,280 --> 01:13:16,920
Speaker 4: Another thing for me to be terrified about.

1460
01:13:16,960 --> 01:13:19,920
Speaker 6: Thank you, Annie, pressure not panic.

1461
01:13:20,040 --> 01:13:21,479
Speaker 4: There you go, there you go, ik you.

1462
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:22,000
Speaker 1: Thank you