WEBVTT - When to Hold 'Em, When to Fold 'Em.  Lanhee Chen talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>When you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to

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<v Speaker 1>know we're ready for you. Here are just a few

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<v Speaker 1>doing our part to keep riders safe. We're cleaning like

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<v Speaker 1>Noble before Great you're found half sign of sound of statist,

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<v Speaker 1>no mask, no Metro need one. We have a few

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<v Speaker 1>extras at Metro. We're doing our part to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>DC area moving. Find out more at well mata dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash doing our part. You know, we could have

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<v Speaker 1>signed something that I couldn't signs something today. We actually

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<v Speaker 1>had papers ready to be signs but it just wasn't appropriate.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to do it right much around, to do

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<v Speaker 1>it right than do it fast, just like in prison.

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<v Speaker 1>Um you so sometimes you gotta walk away. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>the President said about the North Korean summit. Sure absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss the summit and other matters political. We are

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<v Speaker 1>pleased to welcome back to the Armstrong and Getty Show.

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<v Speaker 1>Lon Heach and most of the podcast Crossing Lines with

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<v Speaker 1>lanh Chen, also a Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Director

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<v Speaker 1>of Domestic Policy Studies, Lecture and Public Policy at Stanford

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<v Speaker 1>University of Quaint Little Community College in northern California. Loni,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir? Good morning, gentlemen, how are you?

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<v Speaker 1>It's merely my inferiority complex that makes me make those

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<v Speaker 1>little jokes at Stanford's expense. I hope you will forgive

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<v Speaker 1>me and or pity me. Okay, I'm sure you already

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<v Speaker 1>pity me anyway. So Hey, my theory I Joe have

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<v Speaker 1>been saying for quite some time the most likely outcome,

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<v Speaker 1>by far is that North Korea gets a usable nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>arsenal and we just have to live with it, and

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<v Speaker 1>any hope to the contrary has been a long shot.

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<v Speaker 1>Would you agree or how do you see the question? Well?

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<v Speaker 1>I think that a fair amount of pessimism is warranted

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<v Speaker 1>in this entire process, and you know, from from all

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<v Speaker 1>along leading up to the Hannois Summit, leading up to

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<v Speaker 1>the most recent set of discussions, I was warning people that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to expect a deal I think is overly

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic because of the conditions on the ground that we

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<v Speaker 1>know of in North Korea. And I say we know

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<v Speaker 1>of because the reality is, we really don't know how

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<v Speaker 1>far along they are in many respects. They've got elements

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<v Speaker 1>of nuclear capability that we're not aware of, which, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, was one of the reasons why in this

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<v Speaker 1>negotiation the United States was demanding a full accounting from

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<v Speaker 1>the North Koreans of what they had and and even

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<v Speaker 1>that they were unwilling to do so. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>to a certain degree, the North Koreans are far enough

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<v Speaker 1>along in their nuclear program, they have enough to sell

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<v Speaker 1>material developed, they have warheads, they're able to put that

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<v Speaker 1>material on warheads, that that this is a serious set

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<v Speaker 1>of considerations. And so I'm glad that we're engaging in

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<v Speaker 1>discussions with them, but I'm not surprised we weren't able

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<v Speaker 1>to reach a breakthrough in this summit with North Korea.

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<v Speaker 1>If if, if they just are accepted as a nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>state by the world, would they be the craziest nuclear state?

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<v Speaker 1>Or with Pakistan still have that tidally thing. Well. This week,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there's been a lot of a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>conflict between Pakistan and India in the Castian Region, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the disputed region between the two countries. The pakistanis

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<v Speaker 1>the problem with Pakistan is that it's never entirely clear

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<v Speaker 1>he's in charge. You've got the sort of triumvirate of

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<v Speaker 1>authorities there, You've got the intelligence services, which are incredibly powerful.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got the military, and then of course you've got

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<v Speaker 1>the civilian leadership. And the problem with Pakistan is less

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<v Speaker 1>that there is unpredictable or eccentric as Kim jonga, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's more that you just never know who's in charge when.

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<v Speaker 1>So we are out of places. Yeah, well, and and

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<v Speaker 1>and it's it's not unusual to see in in that

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<v Speaker 1>part of the world. So I feel like the North

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<v Speaker 1>Korean we shouldn't simply accept that North Korea is a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear power. We should we should want to do something

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<v Speaker 1>about that the Korean peninsula to seek the nuclearization. But

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<v Speaker 1>the reality is they're quite far along, and we have

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<v Speaker 1>to we have to accept that they are where they

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<v Speaker 1>are and do our best to try and push them

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<v Speaker 1>away from nuclear folly. One of these we like best

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<v Speaker 1>about talking to you, Alan, he is that you're you're

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<v Speaker 1>thoroughly acquainted with the conventional wisdom, but you're not a

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<v Speaker 1>slave to it. Having said that, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>of the unconventional Trump approach to summits and getting together

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<v Speaker 1>with world leaders and and Kim Jong un in particular.

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<v Speaker 1>You want to go, you want to meet to share,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll meet where you were when, Okay, I'll be there talk. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I I he is someone who obviously has

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<v Speaker 1>managed throughout his whole career to get things done in

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<v Speaker 1>an unconventional way. So I'm not going to sit here

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<v Speaker 1>and say that his technique is wrong because it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>follow ninety years of the way we've conducted diplomacy. That

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<v Speaker 1>having been said, I think there's a reason why you

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<v Speaker 1>want the subordinates to get together and hammer out something

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<v Speaker 1>and then bring it up to the next level and

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<v Speaker 1>let them hammer something out and really just let the

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<v Speaker 1>leaders come together. But you know, I was thinking and

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<v Speaker 1>reflecting last night, guys on the discussions that Reagan had

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<v Speaker 1>with Gordon Shop in the eighties, and recall that that

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<v Speaker 1>took several in person meetings I think five before they

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<v Speaker 1>were able to reach some substantial agreement. Reagan had to

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<v Speaker 1>walk away from the table at one point. Reagan wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>hesitant to meet directly with gorbu Chaw. So I don't

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<v Speaker 1>have a problem with Trump trying to do this one

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<v Speaker 1>on one. What I hope though, and actually I don't hope.

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<v Speaker 1>I know this is happening. There are very good people

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<v Speaker 1>in our government who know a lot about these issues,

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<v Speaker 1>who very much want to describe the reasonable agreement with

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<v Speaker 1>North Korea, who are putting in an awful lot of

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<v Speaker 1>time and effort into UH into getting things done. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>very close to someone who's very deeply involved in the

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<v Speaker 1>process now, and I know that with the negotiations partly

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<v Speaker 1>in his hands, and I feel very good about the

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<v Speaker 1>possibility of the good outcome. I also felt very good

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<v Speaker 1>by the way that President Trump wasn't gonna sign a

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<v Speaker 1>bad deal. I know there's a lot of people on

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<v Speaker 1>the left were like, oh, Trump's gonna give away the farm.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's not forget we have a system around the president.

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<v Speaker 1>And at the end of the day, the President, I

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<v Speaker 1>think did the right thing by listening to the Council

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<v Speaker 1>of people like Pompeio, the Secretary of State, and John

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<v Speaker 1>Bolt in the National Coecurity Produces probably told him, look,

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<v Speaker 1>trading sanctions for the destruction of one non nuclear facility

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<v Speaker 1>is probably not a good idea. Well, Kim swung for

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<v Speaker 1>the fences, And my theory is they got smart people

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<v Speaker 1>watching cable news all the time they're here, and all

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<v Speaker 1>the talking heads say, you know, the Cohen hearings are happening,

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<v Speaker 1>and Trump's under the gun and he might give away

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<v Speaker 1>the farm. They thought, why not, why not throw him

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<v Speaker 1>our best deal and see if he bites. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean it's it's a negotiation, and that the North Koreans

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<v Speaker 1>are clearly savvy enough to have gotten to where. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>let's just step back and take a look at North Korea.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a country with a miniscule g d p Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>They've got massive areas that don't even have power. They've

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<v Speaker 1>got people who are starving. Uh. The number of people

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<v Speaker 1>who are doing well economically is probably fewer than the

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<v Speaker 1>number of goolags in the country. So, you know, for

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<v Speaker 1>them to have gotten to this place suggests that they're

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<v Speaker 1>actually pretty savvy, pretty savvy bunch. And so yeah, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they looked at the conditions that we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>do everything we can to try to seize on the press.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't when they proceed, he's weak. But obviously they said

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<v Speaker 1>that the system in place, the system was effective, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm glad to see that we ended up where we did.

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<v Speaker 1>His podcast is Crossing Lines with lon Hea Chen. You

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<v Speaker 1>should check it out. Did you see the videos of

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<v Speaker 1>Kim smoking cigarettes during the breaks? His sister has to

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<v Speaker 1>run around with the ashtray. I don't have a sister,

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<v Speaker 1>but if I did, I don't think she'd follow me

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<v Speaker 1>around with if I wonder, it's quite it's it's really

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<v Speaker 1>terrific service they had over there. That's pretty awesome. Good

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<v Speaker 1>to be a dictator, soln he as long as h

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<v Speaker 1>Jack brought up the unholy specter of the coin hearings yesterday, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and and your specialty is indeed in domestic policy. Overall

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<v Speaker 1>impressions of the spectacle of that hearing the testimony, how

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<v Speaker 1>much did you get to see? Um? I thought a

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<v Speaker 1>decent amount of it. Actually, that was on a plane

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday and they had the direct TV on. So how

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<v Speaker 1>many people seem to be watching it on the plane?

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of people, I would say about sel around

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<v Speaker 1>me were watching it. I was shocked, actually, maybe because

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<v Speaker 1>there was nothing else to watch. That's it. Yeah, although

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<v Speaker 1>although although there was a spring training which was which

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<v Speaker 1>was a nice distraction. But I tend to think that, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a couple of things about the testimon I mean one, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>Cohen's credibility is not the greatest out of all of

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<v Speaker 1>the witnesses we've seen appear before. Congress. That having been said,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that he was with the president before he

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<v Speaker 1>was the president for so long, and you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>recall Michael Cohen in two thousand twelve when I was

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<v Speaker 1>working for Mitt Romney as a as a senior aid

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<v Speaker 1>on that campaign and we were dealing with the Trump orbit,

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<v Speaker 1>the Trump community. Uh, it was Michael Cohen who we

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<v Speaker 1>dealt with primarily. And so Michael Cohen is somebody who

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<v Speaker 1>has clearly been around the president, knows a lot, has

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<v Speaker 1>reason to know a lot, and so I don't doubt

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<v Speaker 1>that at least some of what he said yesterday was true.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think it was a spectacle in the sense

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<v Speaker 1>that both sides have already decided what they want to use.

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<v Speaker 1>Is for the Democrats are going to use it to

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<v Speaker 1>pursue impeachment. The Republicans are going to use it as

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to defend the president and to slander Cohen.

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<v Speaker 1>So he bothi'es already decided what was going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know that we learned a whole lot of

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<v Speaker 1>new stuff from the hearings yesterday, but what I do

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<v Speaker 1>think is that for the Democrats who have held the

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<v Speaker 1>hearings during the North Korea talks was not an accident,

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<v Speaker 1>and I do wish that they I think they could

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<v Speaker 1>have accomplished the same thing that they only waited a

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<v Speaker 1>few days. That's a really really weak Is there a

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<v Speaker 1>fictional voter out there that doesn't believe Trump's the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of guy that Cohen presented him as yesterday? I just,

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<v Speaker 1>I just I think everybody knows when they heard he

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he got a phony bidder to buy his

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<v Speaker 1>own painting. I think most Trumps reporters think, yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think he's Donald sounds like Donald Trump. To me, I

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<v Speaker 1>still like him better than Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that someone I forgot who was put

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<v Speaker 1>it well yesterday when they said there was a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of embarrassment but not a whole lot of illegality. I

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<v Speaker 1>do think there was a lot of embarrassment. Now that

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<v Speaker 1>the the bigger investigation than the Mueller investigation, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>is this investigation that's going on in this othern district

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<v Speaker 1>of New York, which is the district which covers New

0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:13.120
<v Speaker 1>York City and obviously has prostratorial oversight on on violation

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<v Speaker 1>of the federal law that happened in New York City,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the question is, did the Trump organization or

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<v Speaker 1>any that Trump charities violate UH campaign finance and other laws?

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<v Speaker 1>I think I think that may be the legal exposure

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<v Speaker 1>the president has. But it's not like I walked away

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<v Speaker 1>from yesterday thinking, you know that the president had colluded

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<v Speaker 1>with Russia anymore than I saw before, which is I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not convinced that happened, and so we didn't learn anything

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<v Speaker 1>new legally, but it was embarrassing for the president and

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<v Speaker 1>probably not a great thing for him to had to

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<v Speaker 1>had to go through or to watch for that matter.

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<v Speaker 1>I do find myself wondering what the fate of the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump empire is going to be, though, given the investigation

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<v Speaker 1>you referenced and the complexity and creativity of their dealings

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<v Speaker 1>through the decades. Um we will see, I guess. H

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<v Speaker 1>lan is the host of the podcast Cross Thing Lines

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<v Speaker 1>with Lana he Chen. We will have a link so

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<v Speaker 1>you can find it and listen to it easily. He's

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<v Speaker 1>also a David and Diane Stephy Research Fellow with too

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<v Speaker 1>Over Institution, Director Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University. Lanhi,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's always enlightening. We thank you for your time

0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:18.880
<v Speaker 1>when you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to

0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:21.480
<v Speaker 1>know we're ready for you. Here are just a few

0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:23.320
<v Speaker 1>of the people at Metro to tell you how we're

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<v Speaker 1>doing our part to keep writers safe. We're cleaning like

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<v Speaker 1>never before. You've found half stunt of sound, of stations,

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<v Speaker 1>no mask, no Metro need one. We have a few

0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:38.839
<v Speaker 1>extras at Metro. We're doing our part to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>DC area moving. Find out more at well mata dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash doing our part