1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Within this 11 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: crisis that we see of violence and assassination attempt, we 12 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: are drawing upon our great historians and if I can 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: paint this picture from Watergate in a book was issued 14 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 2: in my ute, Paul Arthur Schlessinger did a book called 15 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 2: The Imperial Presidency. It was hugely successful, even as detractors 16 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: had to read it. Going back Paul to James K. 17 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 2: Polk and the stunning advancement of the presidency that we 18 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: saw in the Mexican War, and then onto the uproar 19 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: of Watergate, and then it's the toughest thing to do 20 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 2: to take a classic book like that and follow up 21 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 2: with the sequel that was successful. Andy Rude Levitch joined 22 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 2: sim Bowden, who had the courage to take on the 23 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: Imperial presidency with his classic The New Imperial Presidency. Professor, 24 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,559 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us with the shock 25 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: of this assassination attempt. What does the next Imperial presidency 26 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 2: look like? 27 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 3: Well, that's a great question. Obviously, the shape of presidential 28 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 3: behavior is going to still depend on who get did 29 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 3: in November. I think, you know, we can agree probably 30 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: to the former presid then we'll get a political boost 31 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 3: out of the week's events. But it is a you know, 32 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 3: an institution that has just gotten stronger over time, partly 33 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 3: because it has taken power, been ambitious in making claims 34 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: about its own authority, and partly because Congress has tended 35 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 3: to delegate a lot to it. Right, they've kind of 36 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: backed out of their own responsibilities in a lot of cases, 37 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 3: and the president has stepped in with whoever wins. I 38 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: expect a more powerful president to continue with you. 39 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: As a true expert on this. Can you imagine a 40 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 2: Trump Hailey tandem? I mean, you know, I think in 41 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 2: Nixon Agnew I'm going to suggest they didn't get along. 42 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 2: But can Trump Hailey occur in the rutal leviage? 43 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 3: Bind, I think it's unlikely to be honest, there is 44 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: one scenario. Let me circle back to it. I mean Trump, Well, sorry, 45 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 3: so Nixon right picked Agnew sort of out of obscurity. 46 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 3: Ragneu was the governor of Maryland. He had impressed Nixon 47 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 3: by being really tough on anti were demonstrators during Vietnam, 48 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 3: and it turned out that Agnew had not been vetted 49 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 3: very well. He of course wiped up having resigned because 50 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 3: he took bribes, you know, everywhere from being county executive 51 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 3: up to being vice presial. There piles of cash in 52 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 3: paper bags on the desk of the vice president. Right. 53 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,519 Speaker 3: So so whenever we think of something bad, now there's 54 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 3: worst things have happened anyway. But with Trump and Haley, 55 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 3: it's interesting because Haley of course wasn't even going to 56 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 3: speak at the convention until a few days ago. She 57 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 3: was his last, you know, sort of standing competitor in 58 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 3: the primary race. And you know, they exchanged words, right, 59 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 3: He attacked her. He attacked her husband, who was serving 60 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 3: abroad in the military. She said he was unfit, that 61 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 3: he too was old and decrepit. You know, Matis Biden 62 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: in some ways, which is fighting words of course as 63 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 3: the Republican Party, and so you know, it would be 64 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 3: a shock to the system. I think it's just very 65 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 3: interesting to see how Trump will decide whether he needs 66 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 3: to reset his campaign a little bit. I mean J. D. 67 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: Ranks has gotten all the talk right, and he's of 68 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 3: course went on the attack immediately after the assassination attempts 69 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: effectively blame the Democrats for it. Hailey would be a 70 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 3: different kind of pick, more unifying pick, because she want 71 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 3: it right. She want her to you know, to President 72 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 3: Trump who you know in this. 73 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 2: Speech, in the speech thing in the speech, right, Paul, 74 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 2: maybe we can get President Trump to say nattering nabobs 75 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: of negativism exactly, I can see, we can see. 76 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 4: So Professor Tom was referring to the imperial presidency. And 77 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 4: we've seen claims by former President Trump that if he's 78 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 4: reelected that perhaps you will take that to a new level. 79 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 4: How would you envision a second Trump presidency here, given 80 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 4: that the odds from a lot of folks this morning 81 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 4: a little bit higher. 82 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, he's made no secret about his desire to 83 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 3: sort of make the executive branch a better instrument of 84 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 3: his own will, right, Yeah, I think he was frustrated 85 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 3: in the for term. He kind of came in, of course, 86 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: to office without any background of public service, didn't have 87 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 3: a lot of people that he knew well as loyalists 88 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 3: that he could appoint to various places, you know, as 89 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 3: we come, you know, nine years later from his first appointment, 90 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 3: you know, his first announcement back in twenty fifteen, he 91 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: knows a lot more people. He has a better network 92 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,799 Speaker 3: of loyalists. He's got people he could put into office. 93 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 3: And so you know, he's been talking about trying to 94 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: bring the independent agencies, you know, the regulatory agencies better 95 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 3: under his will. He's talked about using sort of a 96 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: quirk in the Civil Service Code to effectively fire a 97 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 3: whole bunch of civil servants, maybe as many as fifty 98 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 3: thousand civil servants, and to put political appointees in their 99 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 3: place to make you know, those spots you know, less 100 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 3: based on expertise and more based on loyalty to President Trump. 101 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: And if we want to go back to the Imperial presidency. 102 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 3: That was a big part of what Lessenser is writing about. 103 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 3: You know, the idea that there is not a check 104 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 3: you know, even within the effecutive branch on the president. 105 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 3: And when we add into that the president's stated desire 106 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,119 Speaker 3: to make the Justice Department an instriment of his quote 107 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: retribution un quote, you know, this is what begins to 108 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 3: get people nervous. 109 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 4: President Biden, what do you believe his response will be 110 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: in the coming days and weeks here? 111 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean I think it was appropriate for 112 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 3: him to, you know, obviously to denounce the assassination attempt, 113 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 3: but also to reach out to call the former president 114 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 3: to you know, speak a couple of times now to 115 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: a national audience about the problematic use of political violence 116 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 3: and polarization. You know, from Biden's point of view, of course, 117 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 3: you know, he wants to be able to focus, though 118 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 3: on the divisiveness of Trump. It's going to be hard, 119 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,679 Speaker 3: I think for Team Biden to attack the Trump Trump 120 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 3: as a person. I suppose the Republican National Convention this week, 121 00:06:56,120 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 3: by putting Republican policies first and foremost, do offer a 122 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 3: potential target, I guess, for the Biden administration so that 123 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 3: they can be sympathetic to the former president as a 124 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 3: victim of violence, but also you know, continue on the 125 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 3: offensive to some degree. 126 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 2: Professor Ruodlevitch, thank you so much. At Boden University is 127 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: classic the New Imperial Presidency, Andy Ruoda Levitch. The excellence 128 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 2: of our analysis of the ramifications for Washington of this 129 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 2: assassination attempt has been the wonderful perspective of Henrietta Trees 130 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: with veda partner. She was really quite something yesterday and 131 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: we're thrilled she could revisit this morning as well. Henriette, 132 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: I've got to go narrow, as I just did with 133 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. The amendment in Milwaukee is the former governor 134 00:07:55,800 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 2: of South Carolina will darken the door? Will they listen? 135 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 2: Will the great and worthy of the Trump future listen 136 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 2: to Nicki Hailey? 137 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 5: I heard your last segment. I think that's the penultimate question. 138 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 5: Nikki Hailey was able to get a huge swath a 139 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 5: just a few weeks back, two percent, if I remember correctly, 140 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 5: that was your suburban, female, married, educated white voter. That 141 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 5: is the difference between Trump most likely being ahead to. 142 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 6: Lock on the selection. 143 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 2: But the heart of the matter is, is Joe Matthew 144 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 2: always put out in your expert on is presidents and 145 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: Vice presidents don't necessarily have to get along. That's what 146 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 2: I learned when I read Wendy Schulder's textbook forty years ago. 147 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: It's okay that the vice president's not on the same 148 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: page as a president. That's business as usual, isn't it. 149 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 6: Absolutely? 150 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 5: And I think people perpetually are overestimating, particularly in this 151 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 5: day and age, how important the vice president is. It 152 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 5: used to be that the geographic basket of voters that 153 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 5: he or she could bring to the table was really 154 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 5: all that you wanted. So when you hear about, you know, 155 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 5: a potential Kamala Harris campaign, would she pick you know, 156 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 5: the governor of Pennsylvania who performs so ably this weekend? 157 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 5: That makes sense if you're gunning for Pennsylvania. With this situation, 158 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 5: I think what I really struggle with, and I don't 159 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 5: see it happening, is mostly because I think there's a 160 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 5: lot of consternation within the campaign between. 161 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 6: Trump and Haley camps. 162 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:30,839 Speaker 5: So I think the actual campaign, folks, I think a 163 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 5: lot of Trump's supporters do not want to see Nikky 164 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 5: Haley on the ticket, and that's what's going to prevent her, 165 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 5: not any of their ideological differences, all right. 166 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 4: So Henryetta. With a little bit of hindsight here, how important, 167 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 4: how impactful were the events from this weekend on the 168 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 4: Trump candidacy. Here, some folks are saying this just created 169 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 4: a lopsided victory for the former president. Are you in 170 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 4: that camp? 171 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 5: I think that we've already had two June and July surprises, 172 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 5: and I don't even know what's coming in October. You know, 173 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 5: that's usually what we So I think it's extraordinary that 174 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 5: anything was able to knock the Biden versus Kamala Harris 175 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 5: dynamic off of the front page news. I didn't anticipate 176 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 5: that would be possible, and now here we are. So 177 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 5: I think there's a long way to go. It's been 178 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 5: what you know, forty eight hours of everybody saying, kumba yah, 179 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:21,839 Speaker 5: let's have a unity moment. 180 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 6: We'll see if the former president can carry that through 181 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 6: the convention. 182 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 5: I do think that what's going to come our way, though, 183 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 5: is a sequence of bounces that should benefit the former 184 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 5: President Trump and really serve as a further deteriorator for 185 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 5: Joe Biden. So any candidate going into a convention should 186 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 5: expect a three or four point bump. We were expecting 187 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 5: the polls that came out this weekend showing effectively Trump 188 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 5: and Biden tied, to show something different, the show Trump 189 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 5: surging ahead, you know, two three points that did not materialize. 190 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 5: So what we have is a really divided public and 191 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 5: I don't know that if the unity message is going 192 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 5: to carry through or if the chaos message is going 193 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 5: to carry through. I mean, this is a assascinitation attempt. We 194 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 5: were still learning all the details, but that fraught dynamic 195 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 5: is not something that I think most Americans want, which 196 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 5: is why Trump has not falled ahead even with all 197 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 5: the weaknesses of Joe Biden. 198 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 6: I think there's a long way ago. 199 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 2: Henrietta out on YouTube on our live chat, really informed 200 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 2: and smart. Someone goes right back to the former governor 201 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 2: of California and the fancy guy from Houston and Yale, 202 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 2: George Bush Sr. I mean, just as a model here 203 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: of what a Republican convention be like Reagan and Bush Senior. 204 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 2: That in itself was a shock, wasn't it? 205 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 5: Absolutely? And I think you could see that shock. I 206 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 5: means it makes perfect electoral sense. If your biggest downfall 207 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 5: on the widest gap in polling right now is with women, 208 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 5: I'm not trying to imply that women vote for women. 209 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 5: We have seen that that is not true. But Trump 210 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 5: has a serious gender gap. It's the largest that we've 211 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 5: seen in years. And I think that Nicki Haley would 212 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 5: go a long way where jd Vance has no shot. 213 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 5: You know, you certainly always want to bring Ohio with you, 214 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 5: but Trump is ahead by nine ten points there. You 215 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 5: don't need jd Vance to shoot additional shots in the 216 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 5: arm on Ohio. You do need something different. I think 217 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 5: the gender gap is a big issue for Trump, and 218 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 5: I think me Haley makes a lot of sense. 219 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 4: What do you think the Republic, the Democratic Party is 220 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 4: doing today? President Biden and the campaign are doing today 221 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 4: in the days ahead. 222 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 5: I mean, look, I went out on a pretty heavy 223 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 5: limb a couple of weeks back and said, you know, 224 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 5: with very high adds in the range of seventy percent, 225 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 5: that Biden was not going to be the nominee. And 226 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 5: the way that I see this race shaping up, both 227 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 5: with Nicki Haley and with everybody else waiting in the wings, 228 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 5: is a lot of attention from everybody not named Biden. 229 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 6: And Trump is on twenty twenty. 230 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 5: Eight right now, so the next steps are really going 231 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 5: to be who decides to throw. 232 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 6: Their hat in the ring and get involved here. 233 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 5: I think Kamala Harris is the only person who can 234 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 5: replace Biden on the ticket, and I think that those 235 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 5: conversations have put on the back burner. Di perences of 236 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 5: opinion in DC is as disparate as I've ever seen. 237 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 5: The people that I trust most are saying, you know, 238 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 5: fifteen percent odds it best that Biden gets off the ticket. 239 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 5: But in what I'm seeing from donors, from the voters, 240 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 5: and from the forecasting saying, you know, we just don't 241 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 5: see a path ahead. Biden has to get off here. 242 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 2: Henrian and I about a question like, away from the 243 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 2: politics of the moment, the market's up today, and off 244 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 2: of Greg Villier's essay on landslide, how does the betting 245 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 2: on text policy fold into our enthusiasm of the market. 246 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 5: Well, I think that really belies and lack of understanding 247 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 5: of what it takes to turn a tax built into law. 248 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 6: You need fifty one votes in the Senate. 249 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 5: If Greg Billary just noted right and it's a landslide, 250 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 5: then you're talking maybe fifty five to fifty six Senate seats. 251 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 5: It makes it easier to lose a couple of votes, 252 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 5: it would make maintain in the salt cap, for example, 253 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 5: probably a lot easier. You need that one point two 254 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 5: trillion dollar revenue razor to off set the cost of 255 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 5: the rest of the bill, so certain things would be easier. 256 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 5: But without sixty votes, without a super majority, it doesn't 257 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 5: make a difference. You're still not passing an immigration reform bill. 258 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 5: That means you still need to enact anything via tariffs, 259 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 5: and the tax bill is going to be partisan, it 260 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 5: will not have that partisan support. 261 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 2: Henrietta, Thank you so much for the perspective. It's really treasured, Henrietta. 262 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: Praise huge value to us with Veda Partners. Michael Purvis 263 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: from up where the moose live. He's up in New Hampshire. Wow, 264 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 2: I mean the deer fly up there, the like be 265 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: fifty two bombers that kept Druma over in New York. 266 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 2: Michael Purvis, I really just would like to talk about 267 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: the extension of this great bull market. Is that we 268 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 2: first leaves change in You're New Hampshire. 269 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the like I I think that the 270 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: market is extraordinarily resilient. Right now, I've talked about uh, 271 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: you know, I was at fifty four hundred for the 272 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: S and P five hund from last December. I've talked 273 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 1: about six thousand being a realistic number to get to 274 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: this year. We may even get past that there. It's just, 275 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: you know, you have a few things. You know, there's 276 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: obviously a lot going on politically and geopolitically, but I 277 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: think right now you're looking at basically the FED. It's 278 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: pivoted from a hawking stance to some sort of easing stance. 279 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: We'll see what that really means, but it's certainly not 280 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: a hawk you know, it's certainly not a hiking stance. 281 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: And you've got fantastic earnings and you've got to you know, 282 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: the the rally, unlike so many rallies we've had over 283 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: the last twelve thirteen years, is really an earnings driven rally. Right, 284 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: so the earnings are growing in one particular sector group, 285 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: it's going to go up. And if it's going up 286 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: hired another sector group, it's going to go up even more. 287 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: I mean, so it's a very healthy, fundamentally driven rally 288 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: as opposed to you know, oh, you know, let's get 289 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: some P expansion because the Fed's gonna take inter straights 290 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: down to in the basis points as we saw, you know, 291 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: before COVID and during the earlier part of COVID. 292 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 4: Michael, how concerned are you about this the concentration of 293 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 4: performance in this market and with just a handful of 294 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 4: stocks and if you kind of you know, look out 295 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 4: beyond that, there's really not much performance at all. 296 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's it's it's interesting, it's it's a 297 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: great question. I think the the reality is that you've 298 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: got you know, the Mag six, sometimes the Bag seven, 299 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: depending on the day, there are are are fantastic earnings 300 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: growth and fat fantastic returns. Right, You've actually had pe 301 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: compression in the in the MAG six this year. And 302 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: if you look at the price earnings to growth ratios 303 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: for the MAG six, they are actually considerably more healthier 304 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: than they are than compared to, for example, the SPX 305 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: equal weight in decks. Right, So so yeah, higher pees, 306 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: but much higher growth there, so they get and that 307 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: sort of says that if if the Mag six are 308 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: driving the overall equity returns, and it's and it's a 309 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: really fundamentally driven thing, I'm much. 310 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 7: Less concerned about the breath issue there. 311 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: Look, the SPA's equal weight is up on the air 312 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: and their earnings are up in the air. 313 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 7: It is just a lot smaller there. 314 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: So I don't really I'm not really bothered by the 315 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,679 Speaker 1: bread issue. The way we're like the textbook sort of 316 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,639 Speaker 1: tells us we're supposed to be in this respect. I 317 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: just think it's a very unusual market structure where you've 318 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 1: got six companies that are, you know, effectively forty percent 319 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: of the marketcap way to descipte five hundred, and they're 320 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: driving the bus, but the other ones are not. They're 321 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: not growing as fast working as well. But but I 322 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: sort of like, who cares, right if you if you 323 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,880 Speaker 1: have you know, so. 324 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 4: Where outside of these mag six seven names do you 325 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 4: see opportunities here? 326 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: That's that's the hard part, because everyone's been sort of 327 00:17:56,119 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: raw raw rotation there. I think it's you you can 328 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 1: rotate out of out of some overheated names like Nvidio 329 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: and stuff like that. 330 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 7: Where you but just to blankly. 331 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: Rotate into say like this, you know, the i w 332 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: M the small caps or to the SPX equal weight, 333 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: I'm not sure it is a good strategy. I think 334 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: we're the sectors that I particularly like, I think continue. 335 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 7: To be. 336 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: In the metal space. I think there's opportunities and energy, 337 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: and you know the leaguered banking sector, you know, the 338 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: sort of the Rodney dangerfield of industry groups and for 339 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: so many years, you know that's that's I think, you know, 340 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 1: that's that's a place where I think we're going to 341 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: start seeing you know, some better returns there there. 342 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 7: But but again, these rotations into. 343 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: These value in cyclical parts, you have to be sort 344 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: of a nimble trader. It's not I think you have 345 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: to be very careful about your entry and exit points. 346 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: If you had to put a gun to my head 347 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: and say, okay, I can only you know, buy one 348 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: group of stocks for the next three years. 349 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 7: I can't trade them. It's going to be the mag six. 350 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 2: Okay, well this is really this is right where I 351 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 2: wanted to go. I mean, the bottom line is people, 352 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 2: even if they're participating in this lift in the market, 353 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 2: we're all sort of shell shock because we can't remember 354 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 2: an extended bull market like this. What is the purpose 355 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 2: strategy for someone that has a three year perspective? You 356 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 2: just said it, it's continue to buy Apple and the rest, right, 357 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: That's right? 358 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you need to be allocated to equities 359 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: and I think you need to be allocated to where 360 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: you're seeing the most probable earnings growth. And let's not 361 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 1: forget these giant tech companies have fantastic balance sheets that 362 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: affords them the ability to uh to to do more 363 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: stock buybacks. They're about uh, you know, vulnerable to the 364 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: you know, economic vicissitudes they have. Most of them have 365 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: fantastic overseas exposure as well, so they're they're they're they're 366 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,479 Speaker 1: really fantastic business models that I think, you know, with 367 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 1: the with the AI theme, are going to be the 368 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: most obvious beneficiaries of whatever happens in AI. I do 369 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: think you have to be careful these because they're so loved. 370 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,120 Speaker 1: They get over loved at times, and they get over 371 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: you know, you can see the technicals. 372 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 3: The R S I s on on on this getting. 373 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:15,959 Speaker 1: Overstretched and then you you know, you can use those 374 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,400 Speaker 1: those tactical uh cell periods. 375 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 7: But again these are tactical short term things. 376 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: The broader frend here is that these shocks are going 377 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: to outperform the broader index. 378 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 2: And for those of you not on YouTube, I mean, 379 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 2: we got we got the casual purpose. Sure, you know, 380 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 2: it looks like the keyboard player for the dead. You know, Michael, 381 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 2: you're up in New Hampshire. Okay, you're up in New Hampshire. 382 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 6: And let's be. 383 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 2: Honest here, which canoe are you using this summer? Are 384 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 2: you using the Merrimack canoe? You know, five thousand large? 385 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 2: It's sort of holistic and nice. Or do you got 386 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 2: the old ll being aluminum. 387 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,959 Speaker 7: Going tom uh? 388 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 1: You're a New England or you should know better than 389 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: you know the old town and wooden canvas. 390 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 7: Old town is where you want to go. 391 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 2: You're doing if there's a John mcpheena, you know, the 392 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 2: survival Yeah, the birch bark canoe. I mean, I mean, 393 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 2: I mean this guy so granola. How many mosquito bites 394 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: do you have now underneath the blazer you put on for. 395 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,199 Speaker 7: I you know, I don't know. I doesn't. Shall we 396 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 7: say that doesn't? 397 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 2: Shall we say? Michael Purvis, thank you so much. Use 398 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 2: the natsfoot oil and if that doesn't work, just spray 399 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 2: some you know, put some Budweiser ond the mosquitoes on. 400 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 2: Michael Purvis, thank you so much. This is our conversation 401 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 2: of a day on an assassination attempt of Donald Trump. 402 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 2: Robert D. Kaplan is absolutely definitive. The arch answer is 403 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 2: the geography of our international relations. It's widely understood that 404 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 2: his Look of the Year last year, stretching from Rocco 405 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 2: over to the various stands. But there's another book, which 406 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 2: is the book to read if you are shaken by 407 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 2: violence in America, The Tragic Mind. Robert, thank you so 408 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,439 Speaker 2: much for joining us. I want to talk about a 409 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 2: single half sentence in your book, the Semblance of Order? 410 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 2: Have we lost our semblance of order? 411 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 8: Well, thank you for having me on the show. We're 412 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 8: losing it, as I would say, you know that's you know, 413 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,479 Speaker 8: you know, that's where we are. But keep in mind 414 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 8: historically America is a very young democracy, only two hundred 415 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,239 Speaker 8: and fifty years old, one third of the time of 416 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 8: the Moorish occupation of Spain, and it has been very tumultuous. 417 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 8: We have had four successful presidential assassinations, remember Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, 418 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 8: and Kennedy. And we've had several other attempted assassinations of 419 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 8: presidents and former presidents. So this is not completely unusual 420 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 8: in American history. So I would ask people to calm down. 421 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:19,880 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, a mass democracy is by definition tumultuous, 422 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 8: especially in a social media age. 423 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 4: And Robert, you know, a lot of folks were saying, boy, 424 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 4: the divisions in this country over the last you know, 425 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 4: I don't know, four or five, six years, whatever time 426 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 4: period you want to say, Boy, they as seem as 427 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 4: bad or maybe even worse than the sixties. But I remember, 428 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 4: you know, in the sixties again, as you know, assassinations 429 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 4: were just much more frequent and much more problematic than 430 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 4: we've had here. I'm not sure if this weekend change that. 431 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 8: No, I do not know either. Keep one thing in mind, though, 432 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 8: historically speaking, assassinations are very tragic affairs in this sense, 433 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 8: had Kennedy not been assassinated, given his thinking up until 434 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 8: that point, he was becoming more and more skeptical of 435 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 8: our involvement in Vietnam, we may not have had the 436 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 8: Vietnam War with five hundred thousand troops deployed as we did, 437 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 8: and with it all the divisions that it caused an 438 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 8: American society for decades afterwards. You know, it really did 439 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 8: put you know, move history on a different pivot by 440 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 8: moving from Kennedy, who is a genuine war hero and 441 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 8: expert in foreign policy, to Johnson, who is a neophyt 442 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 8: in foreign policy. So success, you know, without the Lincoln assassination, 443 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 8: civil rights might have come fifty years sooner. So these 444 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 8: are big things, right. 445 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 4: So social media you mentioned it earlier, Robert, what role 446 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 4: does that play? Is there any defense against that? Dissemination 447 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 4: of information and missis. 448 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 8: A print and typewriter age was about moderation because you 449 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 8: had to argue out complex issues at length with fact 450 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 8: checking set, you know, so it enabled moderation. Social media 451 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 8: enables the extremes. It's about passion and shortness, and passion 452 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 8: and shortness are the enemy of analysis. So social media 453 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 8: is what is one of the main drivers behind the 454 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 8: polarization in the country, behind both political parties moving further 455 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 8: to their own extremes. It, you know, it's harder and 456 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:54,400 Speaker 8: harder to keep you know, a mass democracy at peace 457 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 8: in a social media age. 458 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 2: Robert, You Kavin. We were talking yesterday in our special 459 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 2: coverage of any number of presidential pairings, and one of 460 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 2: them we came up with was Nixon and Spira Agnew, 461 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 2: the governor of Maryland at the time, completely obscure as well, 462 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 2: and there was an idea of a silent majority. Does 463 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 2: Robert D. Kaplan discern a silent majority in America today. 464 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 8: Yes, I do. It's not large in a in a 465 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 8: numerical sense, but it's large in an electoral pivotal sense 466 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 8: because we're so divided. They are only about five or 467 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,679 Speaker 8: six swing states now there used to be a dozen, 468 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 8: because you know, you know, the other states, the other 469 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 8: forty five states or so, are all already spoken for 470 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 8: to a significant extent. So even though we're increasingly divided, 471 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,959 Speaker 8: it's going to be silent swing voters, maybe totaling one 472 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 8: hundred two hundred thousand in those five states that are 473 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 8: going to determ in the election. 474 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 2: Do you have any idea, I'm thinking of your blistering 475 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: us in the Washington Post about Trump foreign policy and 476 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 2: the Trump reach across the Pacific to China. Will this 477 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 2: assassination attempt give us a new Donald Trump? Do you 478 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:16,679 Speaker 2: have any wisdom on that? 479 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:18,439 Speaker 1: Uh? 480 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 8: No, not really. Trump is a really you know, he's 481 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 8: a character out of Shakespeare, even if he's never read Shakespeare. 482 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 8: But he I don't, I don't know. He's pretty he's 483 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 8: pretty aggressive towards China. And keep in mind that the 484 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 8: that the you know that the actions between the US 485 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 8: and the Chinese are getting more and more aggressive, and 486 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 8: that is dangerous, you know, because this is what happened 487 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 8: before the Cuban Missile crisis. It was only after the 488 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 8: Cuban Missile crisis, after both superpowers stared into the Abyss, 489 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,359 Speaker 8: that they went on to have a taunt and you know, 490 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:02,400 Speaker 8: strategic arms limitation treaties and all of that stuff. So 491 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 8: what we need is a real cooling of relations between 492 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 8: the US and China. I mean cooling down the rhetoric. 493 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 2: People ask me what I'm gonna read. I'll tell you 494 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 2: what I'm gonna read next. I got a stack of 495 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,640 Speaker 2: books going on right now, and off of this assassination, 496 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: as Paul Sweeney, I have to pull an audible surveillance 497 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 2: audible The Tragic Mind, Fear, Fate, and the Burden of Power. 498 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 2: Robert T. Kaplan, Yale University Press. It is definitive back 499 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 2: to the Greeks and Romans on violence and tragedy of 500 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 2: our interesting politics. Robert T. Kaplin, thank you so much 501 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 2: for joining us. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing 502 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 2: you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 503 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit 504 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. To see the show 505 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our 506 00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcasts 507 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always 508 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.