WEBVTT - Investing, Education, Retail, and the Fed (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.200 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Lyle him Baugh he 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.160 is co founder at Granite Group Advisors. They're an independent 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:28.960 wealth management firm, and he joins us on the phone 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:30.960 on his Black Friday. Lyle, Hey, good to have you 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:34.279 here with Paul and myself. So it's been quite a year. 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:36.080 I'm looking forward to wrapping it up, but I'm a 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:40.479 little cautious and concerned about what three brings. How do 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:44.040 you see it? Well, thanks for having me and happy 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:48.920 trip to fend overload day. So I think you know 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.600 right now the way we're looking at the market. You know, 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:53.920 the market. Just to give you some contacts, the market 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:57.840 historically trade at fifteen to sixteen times forward numbers. Right 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:02.040 now the market refrain to the smp uh, we're trading 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:05.800 around almost seventeen and a half times forward numbers, which 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.920 is not really terribly expensive. But when you overlay the 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:13.000 backdrop of uh, you know, a potential slow down or 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:14.760 even a recession. We don't believe we're going to go 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:16.720 to a recession. We think we're just going to slow down. 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:19.399 To that of spending is pretty pretty strong. But what 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:23.560 really concerns me is, you know, the personal savings rate 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:27.039 as a percentage of disposal income is right where it 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.480 was back in O eight, and we all knew what 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:33.840 happened after that, right from O to O nine. So um, 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:35.920 so I'm a little concerned. I mean, if I'm a 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:40.840 if I'm a short term trader investor, I would be 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:44.640 very cautious here. I would not put on new positions. 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:48.120 If you have your gigantic profits and Apple that you've 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.640 held for ten years, great, keep going Uh I went 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.880 buy uh too much? I'd be I'd wait for the 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.120 market to present an opportunity to get a better entry point. 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:02.960 So I mean, lie, we're up about twelve off of 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:07.000 the recent lows in the SMP. That feels kind of 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.240 real to me or my getting a head fake here, No, 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.560 that it's real, But I just think you know, people 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:14.040 have you know, there's a lot of hope built in 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.440 this market that the FED is gonna slow the rate 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:20.079 to increase, and and they're going to but you have 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.399 to understand the FED is data driven, and they can't 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:24.920 get all the data until January for the fourth quarters, 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:27.640 so they're going to raise rates again, you know, I 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:29.600 would you know, I think the investors need to take 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.880 a real hard listen to what Mr Powell says. And 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.560 he's raising rates. Is it fifty, it's seventy five. It's 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.240 still a raise, and he's probably gonna raise again in 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.000 the future. It's just gonna be a slow rate. So 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.120 I think there's a lot of expectation built in that. 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.520 Uh it's it's gonna really slow or stop and right 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:50.000 now I don't see it. But then you have the 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.960 market valuation on top of that, so there's not a 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:55.240 real lot. I don't see a big catalyst for the 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.360 markets to go up here in the short term. Well 0:02:57.400 --> 0:02:58.880 what do you make that when, as you said, the 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:01.560 FED is data driven. Doubt about a great story from 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.320 the Wall Street Journal today, how the Fed's gonna be 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:07.160 watching Black Friday Cyber Monday for insights into the health 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.720 of the US consumer. Wall Street Journal putting it this way, 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:14.520 the diagnosis this year takes on UH increased significance in 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:17.519 light of the deteriorating economic landscape. We know how important 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.160 the consumer is to the US economy. So if we 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:24.920 see some sobering consumer spending numbers, might that change your 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.840 thought about maybe when the FED is done. Absolutely listen 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:33.280 of GDPs retail sales, right, So that's why they have 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.320 to look at that. So when you when you take 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.440 that consideration, if we have a tough UH, if we 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.240 have a tough retail sales numbers come out after this weekend, 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.880 I think the Fed's going to really keep going. They haven't. 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.400 They haven't really seen anything different. They say they're going 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:51.520 to keep going, So I think he'll just But you 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:53.760 know what I have to say, I was thinking about 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:55.760 this Paul coming in, which is pretty sobering since I 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:57.960 was half awake, and this is what I was thinking about. 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:01.839 But FED policy that if they do smaller increments, that 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:04.280 leaves the door open that they might not go to 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.760 that higher FED funds. Right, they might see data points 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:09.040 that say we don't have to go as high as 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.600 we thought, and it could change the thinking in terms 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:17.880 of evaluations. Well, that would that would absolutely change the thinking. 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.320 But as of today, you know, or maybe we'll find 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:24.880 out on Monday that thinking hasn't changed. So I'm not 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:27.919 going to be one of those you know, hoping, hoping, 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:32.120 pray for, you know, the power to change his mind. Right, 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:34.280 So you've you've got to listen to what the man 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.280 is saying, right, he's and he's not going to get 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.279 all the data he really needs to make a really 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:43.160 informed decision until really January, Lyle, you've got a call 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:47.240 on Mickey Mouse the Walt Disney Company. They made a 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:52.279 CEO change, shocking change in the CEO. What's you're calling 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:55.600 the Walt Disney Company? You know, I think Disney is 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:58.640 a great company for the long term. It's it's one 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:03.200 of the few stocks I fold, uh intimately, Um, but 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:05.840 I think you know, Disney is fairly valued. I do 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.400 think there's some upside there. I think that Mr Iger 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.480 I always called him Mr Positivity. He is an absolute 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:18.160 phenomenal leader. Bob Jacob Speck was clearly not the right 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.680 guy here at this moment in time. And we'll see 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:24.000 what happens down the road. But uh Iger is going 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:27.040 to do a great job. But here's the reality is 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.039 as great as is it's going to take some time 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:33.159 for him to you know, turn the battleship around. It's 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:36.160 not going to happen overnight. He will turn around. It's 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:38.960 just amount of time. Right now. The valuation on Disney 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:43.320 is fair. Canna go up to one ten, one tw absolutely, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.600 I think eventually gets there. They've got the world's largest library, 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:51.960 They've got you know, ESPN and all the other ABC 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:55.359 and everything else in there in Disney. Plus it's just 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:57.359 going to take some time. I would not be a 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.560 seller here, and in fact, if we have any type 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:01.760 of pull back, I'd be a pretty strong barrier of it. 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:03.599 All right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen, 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.840 thank you so much. Disney shares, by the way, they're 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:10.479 down thirty six percent so far. Here in Lyle Himba, 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:16.440 partner at Granted Group Advisors, joining us on the phone. 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:21.280 You might recall a Bloomberg story last month. It was 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:22.960 a pretty big deal, and I think she and I 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.560 are next guest. We talked about this, and I think 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.240 even Paul you might have been there. It was about 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:31.520 University of Pennsylvania's warton announcing it's NBA class was the 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:34.040 first in the programs a hundred and forty year history 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:37.520 to be majority female, because you just don't see that happen. 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:40.640 So let's see what Alyssa's sankster has to say. She 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.640 is CEO at Forte Foundation. She joins us on the 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.640 phone on this Friday, ALYSSA, nice to have you here 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.520 with Paul and myself. UM tell us and remind our 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:55.039 audience exactly what you guys do at Forte Sure, Hi Carol, 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.640 Hi Paul. It's nice to be with you. And we 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.520 are celebrating twenty years this year. Forte Foundation is and 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:05.480 our goal is to increase opportunities for women in business leadership, 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.240 and we partner with top business schools like the Wharton 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.840 School m among many others. And this year we were 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.400 really excited to see that number and then also that 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:19.280 about seventeen of our member schools had reached or greater, 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:21.800 which is also a really significant milestone. And we've been 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:24.600 following this trend for the twenty years we've been working. 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:30.040 So UNLESSA, I see you've got your undergraduate degree from 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.360 Texas A and M and proud Aggie and then the 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:35.960 m b A from the Lowry Mayze School of Business. 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:38.640 And I know Lowry very well from Clear Channel Communications. 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:42.640 Great great individual when you see women going into an 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.400 NBA program, what are they looking to do? Is it 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.200 a career change? Is it just I want to better myself? 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:53.160 And from a career perspective, what do most women look 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:57.080 for when they go into a business program? Sure, and 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:01.600 and NBA students generally our career changers, especially in full 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.120 time programs, And so when they make that commitment to 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.119 go back, they really are looking for a different type 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:10.800 of opportunity. And so women, much like men and women 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.240 going back to NBA programs are also doing that. But 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.120 what we see on the back side of that is 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.720 that women report higher levels of confidence. They feel like 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.000 they're specialists in particular areas. They're able to walk back 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:28.120 out into the workforce and feel empowered and um respected 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.560 for the degree that they have and for the knowledge 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.840 that they bring to the table. So it really does 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.800 build that confidence and um set them on that trajectory 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:40.720 towards leadership. And leadership is really where the NBA pathway 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:43.320 h takes you. Unlus, it sounds so it sounds like, 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:45.400 you know, like poke pol a little bit. So it 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:47.679 sounds like men and women both go to get an 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.680 NBA for the same reason. But I do wonder a 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.199 man having an NBA versus a woman having an NBA, 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:55.680 what's the difference? Does truly an m B A A 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:58.040 give a woman a huge leg up when it comes 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:03.280 to climbing the corporate ladder? Um? Well, about six point 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.800 six percent of CEOs or women, and of that six 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:10.280 point six percent of them have an m B A. 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.360 That statistic is a little bit stronger for the men. 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:16.080 So if you look at all of the other CEOs um, 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.199 it's you know, closer to So it's clearly a very 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:23.640 significant pathway leading to that c suite UM. The difference 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:25.880 between men and women is that when women get that 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:29.280 m B A it almost levels the playing field versus 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.520 giving them a leg up. And so where you see 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:36.640 women walking into a room to talk about business with 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:40.559 other men, if they don't have that NBA, their competence 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:43.480 level can sometimes not be as strong, and then they're 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:45.559 not feeling like they are contributing it the same way. 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:47.720 So I think it's more of a leveling the playing 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:50.920 field than it is um necessarily giving them a leg up. 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:55.400 And listen, I serve on the Fuqua School of Business 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:57.760 at Duke University on their board of Visitors and and 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.920 and it seems that at Duke there's a real focus 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:06.160 on attracting UH a diverse class into their business school. 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.800 Is that typical of some of the leading schools out there? 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.920 Do you find? Yes? I think that the schools we 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.800 work with UM, you know, gender equity has been very 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.320 much a focus UM. But at the same time they 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.840 are very interested in the intersection of race and gender 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:26.040 and making sure that UM that their their student body 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.679 is diverse. We do a lot of work around UH 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:33.000 female protagonists in case studies. They're they're looking at how 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:36.680 they teach the students, how many faculty members are diverse. 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.880 They're trying to create a diverse student profile. But they're 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.400 also looking at many other dimensions and how they deliver 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:45.959 business education. And that's because companies want that as well. 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.000 And the companies are saying to the business schools, we 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.360 want diversity in our pipeline, and we we need your 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.160 help and your partnership to create that diverse pipeline to 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:57.640 schools and businesses hand to hand, Alyssa, And forgive my sarcasm, 0:10:57.640 --> 0:10:59.600 but I do feel like I had this conversation ten 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.520 years go, twenty years ago. I know it sometimes gets 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:04.079 better and all of a sudden, we see more women 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:06.400 who are CEOs, and then those numbers dwind alls. So 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:10.000 I and I get building out the pipeline. But what 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:14.280 is the real problem in terms of more women penetrating 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:18.800 really the C suite? If you will, Yeah, I think 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.320 it's um gosh, you know, I wish I had a 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.440 silver bullet. UM. It really has been this layered onion 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.760 approach more that we've seen, and you know, the pipeline 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:29.920 getting more as many women in business school as there 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.520 were in law in medicine. I think that's healthy. I 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:38.319 think though, when companies bring an onboard these classes of employees, 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:41.320 they've got to really think about monitoring and watching and 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:45.800 closely UM investing in all populations and making sure they 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:48.720 have the same access and they have the same mentors 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.440 and sponsors. And so that's hard work. I mean, that's 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.280 every single day you have to be thinking intentionally about 0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:59.000 how you're advancing employees into these leadership ranks. And if 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:00.800 you're not doing it care fully, and if you're not 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:05.200 UM monitoring it and looking at metrics and making sure 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.480 that you push those metrics UM, then you're not going 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.480 to see success UM. And it really is about access 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.920 and opportunity, because you can't go to the C suite 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:18.760 if somebody hasn't pulled you forward into those leadership UM ranks. 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.720 So it's it's hard work and there's always something more 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.840 to be done. But I am encouraged because when I started, 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:28.000 there were zero CEOs. Now there's at least close to 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:32.960 seven women's CEO. Hey, hey, listen, how did this all 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:35.360 play out during the pandemic? Were there any meaningful changes 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:40.200 in the trends of women in NBA programs? Um? No, 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.360 I mean, I think the enrollment in NBA programs is 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:46.960 watches the markets, and it it goes. When economy is strong, 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.080 you see more UM students staying in the economy, and 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.160 when the economy weakens a little bit, you see more 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:55.079 students going back to get their NBA women held their own. 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.480 They really stayed consistent in terms of their percentages. I 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.280 think in NBA enrollment to dipped a little bit this 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:05.040 year over the pandemic, they were quite strong, UM, and 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.120 so we're seeing the women are retaining that percentage that 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.840 they've always had. All right, UM, I think we're gonna 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.640 leave it at that. Really appreciate your time, Alyssa. Thank 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.480 you so much. Have a great holiday season. Alyssa Sankster, 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.880 she's CEO at Forte Foundation, joining us on the on 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:27.880 this Friday. I may drive past the Short Hills mal tonight, 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.760 but that's as bad as close as it's a full 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.040 contact sport in the parking lot there. Man, you have 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:36.160 to be really aggressive to get a spot. I guess 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.640 it's a good thing for the retailers inside they do, 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.760 but I don't do that. I'm a man at the 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.680 people here. UM put them Coyle. She covers all that 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.079 retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. She's been doing that for 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.520 a long time. She's seen her share of black Fridays. 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:54.440 Where are you now in the great state of New Jersey? Putament, 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:56.719 what are you seeing? I am on my way to 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.360 Dick Sporting Goods. Um, it's crowded. You know. We have 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:03.520 analysts out on the West coast in Massachusetts. Um. In Chicago, 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:08.400 it is crowded and it is only getting more crowded. Um, 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.200 it's it's boss flowing down. I mean, you know, we 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.280 came into the season thinking that sales would be a little, 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.200 a little muted. If this day is proof of anything, 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:19.000 it's that people are spending I gotta tell you, Pam, 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:20.520 I like to do Twitter polls, and I said, are 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.000 you shopping at stores this Black Friday? It's been out 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:26.240 there for about three hours this Paul fifteen, almost six 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:30.680 say yes, they're out shopping at stores. Six said no, 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.360 said yes, but they're shopping online today, So I don't know. 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.040 Maybe my poll is just people are just sitting at 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.200 home listening to us, so that's why they're not out shopping. 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.400 But it sounds like you and your team are really 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.400 surprised by the people coming back to the stores. And 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.720 the lines are there too, right, so that means they're 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.520 not only just looking at stuff, they're buying. Yeah. No, 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.520 I mean the poles are the poles. But as I 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.000 said earlier, it's really the younger generation. I mean it 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.800 is the team, the teenager is, the millennials. They are 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.360 who aren't in the store. So depending on who took 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.520 that pole. But they're spending. Um, there's lots of shopping 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:10.960 bags floating around. It's busy and it's just getting busier. 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.680 Put And we were just talking to Daniel di Martino Booth. 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.800 She's the CEO and chief strategist that Quill Intelligence, and 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.280 she was just pointing out that the consumers not as 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.920 strong as maybe we think. The consumer has drawn down savings, 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.320 credit card debt is going up. What are the retail 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:30.000 companies say about the health of the consumer. You know, 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.600 I'd agree with that. I mean, retailers have been concerned 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.680 for some time that consumers are going to be pinged, 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.440 and that's why their bargain hunting and deal hunting, which 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:42.200 is maybe why it's so busy today, right because somewhere 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.360 in their minds they know that's the best field they're 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.640 going to occur this weekend. So if they want to 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.800 save money, if they want to get maximized what's on 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.040 their wallets, they need to be out today. They need 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.120 to be buying over this weekend. Yeah, I was thinking 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.720 about I was just looking at Visa uh, and I'm 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.040 going to be interested to see what Visa master card 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:01.840 all of those folks have to say. No, no, are 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:07.440 you still there? Punham? Maybe we lost her? Um, she's dropped. Yeah, 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.560 she's out and about and she's checking out she said 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.040 Dick Sporting good which I do think like when it 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.640 comes to shopping around the holidays, sometimes those specialty stores, 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.240 like people have very specific things on their wish lists 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:22.400 and they tend to do well. Um, I feel like, 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.720 you know, whether it's electronics, whether it's sports, whether it's 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:27.640 you know, kind of different items like this. Yeah, I 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:29.400 was interested. I'm gonna be interested to see how this 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.280 all plays out in terms of the retail sales. Because 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:36.440 you come out of the pandemic and it's all about experiences, traveling. Um, 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.320 you know that kind of thing. But the consumers still 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:41.320 out there in Strantham and Punam. We we we got you back. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:43.640 Thanks so much for joining us again. So when you 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.560 think about a small segment of retail like sporting goods, 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.120 what do you look for? What do analysts look for 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.640 when I go to a sporting goods store and trying 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:55.720 to get a channel check, I think it's really the 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.480 inventory levels, right, So when you see the shelves, how 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.640 high are they stopped? Are they picked through? Our consumers 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:06.600 gravitating towards one brand versus another, and then looking across 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.320 the brand, right, is Nike more on sale than Idia does? 0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:13.720 It's a lot more discounted. What are consumers picking after? 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.560 Those are kind of the things that we look for. 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.639 Dick Sporting Goods guys from about mid June it is 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.040 up almost seventy percent, so it has had quite a 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.480 run and quite a rally. Is there something to it? 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:27.959 You know, we were talking Paula myself put it just 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:31.000 this whole idea that when it comes to holidays, you know, 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.800 when it's something very special or specialty store, I feel 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.040 like those are the things that tend to show up 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.600 on wish lists. Um, and I wonder if that's the 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:40.439 case when you look at retail and what tends to 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:42.800 do better? Is it? Is it those firms and those 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.800 companies and those retailers that have something very special and 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:49.160 unique to offer. Yeah, I think it's value or it's 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.720 something very special and very special. The only name that 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:53.960 comes to mind really is that See. I think that's 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.200 where at he's been driving all year and they will 0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:00.040 continue to because they truly offer differentiated products, customer and 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.280 more personalized products. And put when we talk to retail 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.679 experts like yourself, you know, a topic that comes up 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:10.920 as kind of the US being overstored. There's still too 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:14.399 many stores for the demand out there. But this is 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.960 an issue we've been talking about for years and years. 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.840 Where are we now in terms of the industry, and 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.760 it's it's it's retail footprint. I think there still are 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:26.919 too many stores, and I think you will continue to 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:29.959 see see store consolidation. But then there are stores that 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:33.000 need to expand. To write, whether it's the off price retailer, 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.240 there's some of the growth groups where some of the 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.760 international retailers, they're trying to gain presence here, whether it's 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.240 like a Prime Mark which is a value oriented retailer, 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:44.160 or um some of the brands that are just looking 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:46.480 to open up some retail out with but they're all 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:50.639 looking in the same space. They're all looking at area, 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:53.080 so you know, the shorthills mall and malls like the 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:55.720 Garden State Plausa. It's hard to still find real estates 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:58.520 there because that's where people want to be. You know, 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:00.520 it's interesting. I was looking at Etsy to you like there. 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:02.200 I guess it was like around mid June there a 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.440 lot of retailers kind of bottomed out, or at least 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.560 a recent bottom. It is up sevent since. Made you 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:11.040 like that is pretty remarkable. Um. I was thinking about 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.000 so many stories put them coming into Black Friday that 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.320 we said, you know, maybe tempered demand, maybe it's not 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.159 going to be as optimism. Are you getting ready to 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.400 kind of rethink your research based on what you're seeing 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:24.280 and what you're hearing from the team. What we see 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:28.160 today is that it's Black Friday is back in motion. 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.480 People are shopping, people are spending. It doesn't look muted 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.119 to me by any means, but you know, there's a 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:37.399 lot of holiday shopping still to go. This weekend is 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.400 just the beginning. So if everyone has shopped this weekend 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:42.840 and they don't go back out over the next three weeks, 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.280 then holiday sales could still come in at the estimates 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:49.600 that we've seen around which are normalized to be four 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.560 to eight percent growth. So it really the beginning is 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:54.600 off to a great start, but we need to see 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.000 if that momentum continues for the next three weeks because 0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.199 the bulk of holiday shopping still lies ahead of us, 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.439 especially as bill's are to come in. It's like, okay, 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:03.920 well that we needed to hey, put them. I'm not 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.040 sure if you've spoken to your counterpart in London, Charles Allen, 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:10.560 who covers retail for Bloomberg Intelligence. What's the expectation for 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.080 good friends over there in England or maybe just you're 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:17.560 broadly defined. I have not spoken to my London London counterproducts. 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:19.760 I have spoken of people on the West Coast and 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.320 they're seeing the same trend. We have an analyst at 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:24.400 in the malls there and it's busy. It's the same 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:26.919 stores that are seeing the traffic. Where do you go 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.600 from here? And we've you've been so great talking to 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:31.240 us at the top of each hour. You know, you 0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:35.119 started off at the Freehold Freehold Mall, mall? Excuse me, 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:37.160 you went to Coals, You're off to Dicks. Where else 0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:39.800 are you going to go check out? Today? So there's 0:20:39.840 --> 0:20:42.280 another smaller mall, and I do want to go check 0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:45.679 out the off price retailers which are in Black Friday destination, 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:47.600 but they do offer a lot of value to see 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:49.680 if traffic picks up. It usually picks up later in 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:51.560