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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Lyle him Baugh he

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Speaker 1: is co founder at Granite Group Advisors. They're an independent

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Speaker 1: wealth management firm, and he joins us on the phone

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Speaker 1: on his Black Friday. Lyle, Hey, good to have you

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Speaker 1: here with Paul and myself. So it's been quite a year.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to wrapping it up, but I'm a

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Speaker 1: little cautious and concerned about what three brings. How do

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Speaker 1: you see it? Well, thanks for having me and happy

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Speaker 1: trip to fend overload day. So I think you know

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Speaker 1: right now the way we're looking at the market. You know,

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Speaker 1: the market. Just to give you some contacts, the market

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Speaker 1: historically trade at fifteen to sixteen times forward numbers. Right

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Speaker 1: now the market refrain to the smp uh, we're trading

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Speaker 1: around almost seventeen and a half times forward numbers, which

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Speaker 1: is not really terribly expensive. But when you overlay the

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Speaker 1: backdrop of uh, you know, a potential slow down or

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Speaker 1: even a recession. We don't believe we're going to go

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Speaker 1: to a recession. We think we're just going to slow down.

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Speaker 1: To that of spending is pretty pretty strong. But what

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Speaker 1: really concerns me is, you know, the personal savings rate

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Speaker 1: as a percentage of disposal income is right where it

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Speaker 1: was back in O eight, and we all knew what

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Speaker 1: happened after that, right from O to O nine. So um,

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Speaker 1: so I'm a little concerned. I mean, if I'm a

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Speaker 1: if I'm a short term trader investor, I would be

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Speaker 1: very cautious here. I would not put on new positions.

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Speaker 1: If you have your gigantic profits and Apple that you've

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Speaker 1: held for ten years, great, keep going Uh I went

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Speaker 1: buy uh too much? I'd be I'd wait for the

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Speaker 1: market to present an opportunity to get a better entry point.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, lie, we're up about twelve off of

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Speaker 1: the recent lows in the SMP. That feels kind of

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Speaker 1: real to me or my getting a head fake here, No,

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Speaker 1: that it's real, But I just think you know, people

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Speaker 1: have you know, there's a lot of hope built in

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Speaker 1: this market that the FED is gonna slow the rate

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Speaker 1: to increase, and and they're going to but you have

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Speaker 1: to understand the FED is data driven, and they can't

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Speaker 1: get all the data until January for the fourth quarters,

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Speaker 1: so they're going to raise rates again, you know, I

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Speaker 1: would you know, I think the investors need to take

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Speaker 1: a real hard listen to what Mr Powell says. And

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Speaker 1: he's raising rates. Is it fifty, it's seventy five. It's

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Speaker 1: still a raise, and he's probably gonna raise again in

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Speaker 1: the future. It's just gonna be a slow rate. So

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Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of expectation built in that.

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Speaker 1: Uh it's it's gonna really slow or stop and right

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Speaker 1: now I don't see it. But then you have the

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Speaker 1: market valuation on top of that, so there's not a

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Speaker 1: real lot. I don't see a big catalyst for the

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Speaker 1: markets to go up here in the short term. Well

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Speaker 1: what do you make that when, as you said, the

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Speaker 1: FED is data driven. Doubt about a great story from

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Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal today, how the Fed's gonna be

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Speaker 1: watching Black Friday Cyber Monday for insights into the health

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Speaker 1: of the US consumer. Wall Street Journal putting it this way,

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Speaker 1: the diagnosis this year takes on UH increased significance in

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Speaker 1: light of the deteriorating economic landscape. We know how important

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Speaker 1: the consumer is to the US economy. So if we

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Speaker 1: see some sobering consumer spending numbers, might that change your

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Speaker 1: thought about maybe when the FED is done. Absolutely listen

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Speaker 1: of GDPs retail sales, right, So that's why they have

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Speaker 1: to look at that. So when you when you take

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Speaker 1: that consideration, if we have a tough UH, if we

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Speaker 1: have a tough retail sales numbers come out after this weekend,

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Speaker 1: I think the Fed's going to really keep going. They haven't.

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Speaker 1: They haven't really seen anything different. They say they're going

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Speaker 1: to keep going, So I think he'll just But you

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Speaker 1: know what I have to say, I was thinking about

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Speaker 1: this Paul coming in, which is pretty sobering since I

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Speaker 1: was half awake, and this is what I was thinking about.

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Speaker 1: But FED policy that if they do smaller increments, that

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Speaker 1: leaves the door open that they might not go to

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Speaker 1: that higher FED funds. Right, they might see data points

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Speaker 1: that say we don't have to go as high as

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Speaker 1: we thought, and it could change the thinking in terms

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Speaker 1: of evaluations. Well, that would that would absolutely change the thinking.

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Speaker 1: But as of today, you know, or maybe we'll find

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Speaker 1: out on Monday that thinking hasn't changed. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to be one of those you know, hoping, hoping,

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Speaker 1: pray for, you know, the power to change his mind. Right,

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Speaker 1: So you've you've got to listen to what the man

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Speaker 1: is saying, right, he's and he's not going to get

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Speaker 1: all the data he really needs to make a really

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Speaker 1: informed decision until really January, Lyle, you've got a call

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Speaker 1: on Mickey Mouse the Walt Disney Company. They made a

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Speaker 1: CEO change, shocking change in the CEO. What's you're calling

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Speaker 1: the Walt Disney Company? You know, I think Disney is

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Speaker 1: a great company for the long term. It's it's one

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Speaker 1: of the few stocks I fold, uh intimately, Um, but

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Speaker 1: I think you know, Disney is fairly valued. I do

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Speaker 1: think there's some upside there. I think that Mr Iger

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Speaker 1: I always called him Mr Positivity. He is an absolute

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Speaker 1: phenomenal leader. Bob Jacob Speck was clearly not the right

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Speaker 1: guy here at this moment in time. And we'll see

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Speaker 1: what happens down the road. But uh Iger is going

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Speaker 1: to do a great job. But here's the reality is

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Speaker 1: as great as is it's going to take some time

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Speaker 1: for him to you know, turn the battleship around. It's

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Speaker 1: not going to happen overnight. He will turn around. It's

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Speaker 1: just amount of time. Right now. The valuation on Disney

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Speaker 1: is fair. Canna go up to one ten, one tw absolutely,

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Speaker 1: I think eventually gets there. They've got the world's largest library,

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Speaker 1: They've got you know, ESPN and all the other ABC

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Speaker 1: and everything else in there in Disney. Plus it's just

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Speaker 1: going to take some time. I would not be a

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Speaker 1: seller here, and in fact, if we have any type

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Speaker 1: of pull back, I'd be a pretty strong barrier of it.

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Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna leave it on that note. Listen,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Disney shares, by the way, they're

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Speaker 1: down thirty six percent so far. Here in Lyle Himba,

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Speaker 1: partner at Granted Group Advisors, joining us on the phone.

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Speaker 1: You might recall a Bloomberg story last month. It was

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Speaker 1: a pretty big deal, and I think she and I

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Speaker 1: are next guest. We talked about this, and I think

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Speaker 1: even Paul you might have been there. It was about

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Speaker 1: University of Pennsylvania's warton announcing it's NBA class was the

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Speaker 1: first in the programs a hundred and forty year history

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Speaker 1: to be majority female, because you just don't see that happen.

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Speaker 1: So let's see what Alyssa's sankster has to say. She

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Speaker 1: is CEO at Forte Foundation. She joins us on the

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Speaker 1: phone on this Friday, ALYSSA, nice to have you here

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Speaker 1: with Paul and myself. UM tell us and remind our

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Speaker 1: audience exactly what you guys do at Forte Sure, Hi Carol,

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Speaker 1: Hi Paul. It's nice to be with you. And we

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Speaker 1: are celebrating twenty years this year. Forte Foundation is and

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Speaker 1: our goal is to increase opportunities for women in business leadership,

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Speaker 1: and we partner with top business schools like the Wharton

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Speaker 1: School m among many others. And this year we were

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Speaker 1: really excited to see that number and then also that

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Speaker 1: about seventeen of our member schools had reached or greater,

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Speaker 1: which is also a really significant milestone. And we've been

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Speaker 1: following this trend for the twenty years we've been working.

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Speaker 1: So UNLESSA, I see you've got your undergraduate degree from

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M and proud Aggie and then the

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Speaker 1: m b A from the Lowry Mayze School of Business.

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Speaker 1: And I know Lowry very well from Clear Channel Communications.

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Speaker 1: Great great individual when you see women going into an

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Speaker 1: NBA program, what are they looking to do? Is it

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Speaker 1: a career change? Is it just I want to better myself?

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Speaker 1: And from a career perspective, what do most women look

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Speaker 1: for when they go into a business program? Sure, and

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Speaker 1: and NBA students generally our career changers, especially in full

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Speaker 1: time programs, And so when they make that commitment to

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Speaker 1: go back, they really are looking for a different type

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Speaker 1: of opportunity. And so women, much like men and women

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Speaker 1: going back to NBA programs are also doing that. But

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Speaker 1: what we see on the back side of that is

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Speaker 1: that women report higher levels of confidence. They feel like

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Speaker 1: they're specialists in particular areas. They're able to walk back

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Speaker 1: out into the workforce and feel empowered and um respected

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Speaker 1: for the degree that they have and for the knowledge

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Speaker 1: that they bring to the table. So it really does

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Speaker 1: build that confidence and um set them on that trajectory

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Speaker 1: towards leadership. And leadership is really where the NBA pathway

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Speaker 1: h takes you. Unlus, it sounds so it sounds like,

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Speaker 1: you know, like poke pol a little bit. So it

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Speaker 1: sounds like men and women both go to get an

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Speaker 1: NBA for the same reason. But I do wonder a

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Speaker 1: man having an NBA versus a woman having an NBA,

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Speaker 1: what's the difference? Does truly an m B A A

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Speaker 1: give a woman a huge leg up when it comes

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Speaker 1: to climbing the corporate ladder? Um? Well, about six point

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Speaker 1: six percent of CEOs or women, and of that six

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Speaker 1: point six percent of them have an m B A.

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Speaker 1: That statistic is a little bit stronger for the men.

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Speaker 1: So if you look at all of the other CEOs um,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, closer to So it's clearly a very

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Speaker 1: significant pathway leading to that c suite UM. The difference

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Speaker 1: between men and women is that when women get that

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Speaker 1: m B A it almost levels the playing field versus

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Speaker 1: giving them a leg up. And so where you see

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Speaker 1: women walking into a room to talk about business with

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Speaker 1: other men, if they don't have that NBA, their competence

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Speaker 1: level can sometimes not be as strong, and then they're

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Speaker 1: not feeling like they are contributing it the same way.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's more of a leveling the playing

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Speaker 1: field than it is um necessarily giving them a leg up.

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Speaker 1: And listen, I serve on the Fuqua School of Business

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Speaker 1: at Duke University on their board of Visitors and and

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Speaker 1: and it seems that at Duke there's a real focus

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Speaker 1: on attracting UH a diverse class into their business school.

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Speaker 1: Is that typical of some of the leading schools out there?

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Speaker 1: Do you find? Yes? I think that the schools we

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Speaker 1: work with UM, you know, gender equity has been very

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Speaker 1: much a focus UM. But at the same time they

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Speaker 1: are very interested in the intersection of race and gender

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Speaker 1: and making sure that UM that their their student body

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Speaker 1: is diverse. We do a lot of work around UH

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Speaker 1: female protagonists in case studies. They're they're looking at how

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Speaker 1: they teach the students, how many faculty members are diverse.

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Speaker 1: They're trying to create a diverse student profile. But they're

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Speaker 1: also looking at many other dimensions and how they deliver

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Speaker 1: business education. And that's because companies want that as well.

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Speaker 1: And the companies are saying to the business schools, we

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Speaker 1: want diversity in our pipeline, and we we need your

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Speaker 1: help and your partnership to create that diverse pipeline to

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Speaker 1: schools and businesses hand to hand, Alyssa, And forgive my sarcasm,

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Speaker 1: but I do feel like I had this conversation ten

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Speaker 1: years go, twenty years ago. I know it sometimes gets

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Speaker 1: better and all of a sudden, we see more women

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Speaker 1: who are CEOs, and then those numbers dwind alls. So

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Speaker 1: I and I get building out the pipeline. But what

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Speaker 1: is the real problem in terms of more women penetrating

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Speaker 1: really the C suite? If you will, Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: it's um gosh, you know, I wish I had a

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Speaker 1: silver bullet. UM. It really has been this layered onion

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Speaker 1: approach more that we've seen, and you know, the pipeline

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Speaker 1: getting more as many women in business school as there

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Speaker 1: were in law in medicine. I think that's healthy. I

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Speaker 1: think though, when companies bring an onboard these classes of employees,

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Speaker 1: they've got to really think about monitoring and watching and

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Speaker 1: closely UM investing in all populations and making sure they

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Speaker 1: have the same access and they have the same mentors

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Speaker 1: and sponsors. And so that's hard work. I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: every single day you have to be thinking intentionally about

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Speaker 1: how you're advancing employees into these leadership ranks. And if

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Speaker 1: you're not doing it care fully, and if you're not

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Speaker 1: UM monitoring it and looking at metrics and making sure

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Speaker 1: that you push those metrics UM, then you're not going

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Speaker 1: to see success UM. And it really is about access

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Speaker 1: and opportunity, because you can't go to the C suite

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Speaker 1: if somebody hasn't pulled you forward into those leadership UM ranks.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's hard work and there's always something more

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Speaker 1: to be done. But I am encouraged because when I started,

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Speaker 1: there were zero CEOs. Now there's at least close to

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Speaker 1: seven women's CEO. Hey, hey, listen, how did this all

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Speaker 1: play out during the pandemic? Were there any meaningful changes

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Speaker 1: in the trends of women in NBA programs? Um? No,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the enrollment in NBA programs is

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Speaker 1: watches the markets, and it it goes. When economy is strong,

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Speaker 1: you see more UM students staying in the economy, and

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Speaker 1: when the economy weakens a little bit, you see more

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Speaker 1: students going back to get their NBA women held their own.

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Speaker 1: They really stayed consistent in terms of their percentages. I

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Speaker 1: think in NBA enrollment to dipped a little bit this

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Speaker 1: year over the pandemic, they were quite strong, UM, and

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Speaker 1: so we're seeing the women are retaining that percentage that

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Speaker 1: they've always had. All right, UM, I think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: leave it at that. Really appreciate your time, Alyssa. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Have a great holiday season. Alyssa Sankster,

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Speaker 1: she's CEO at Forte Foundation, joining us on the on

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Speaker 1: this Friday. I may drive past the Short Hills mal tonight,

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Speaker 1: but that's as bad as close as it's a full

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Speaker 1: contact sport in the parking lot there. Man, you have

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Speaker 1: to be really aggressive to get a spot. I guess

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Speaker 1: it's a good thing for the retailers inside they do,

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Speaker 1: but I don't do that. I'm a man at the

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Speaker 1: people here. UM put them Coyle. She covers all that

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Speaker 1: retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. She's been doing that for

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Speaker 1: a long time. She's seen her share of black Fridays.

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Speaker 1: Where are you now in the great state of New Jersey? Putament,

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Speaker 1: what are you seeing? I am on my way to

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Speaker 1: Dick Sporting Goods. Um, it's crowded. You know. We have

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Speaker 1: analysts out on the West coast in Massachusetts. Um. In Chicago,

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Speaker 1: it is crowded and it is only getting more crowded. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's it's boss flowing down. I mean, you know, we

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Speaker 1: came into the season thinking that sales would be a little,

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Speaker 1: a little muted. If this day is proof of anything,

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Speaker 1: it's that people are spending I gotta tell you, Pam,

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Speaker 1: I like to do Twitter polls, and I said, are

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Speaker 1: you shopping at stores this Black Friday? It's been out

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Speaker 1: there for about three hours this Paul fifteen, almost six

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Speaker 1: say yes, they're out shopping at stores. Six said no,

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Speaker 1: said yes, but they're shopping online today, So I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Maybe my poll is just people are just sitting at

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Speaker 1: home listening to us, so that's why they're not out shopping.

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Speaker 1: But it sounds like you and your team are really

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Speaker 1: surprised by the people coming back to the stores. And

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Speaker 1: the lines are there too, right, so that means they're

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Speaker 1: not only just looking at stuff, they're buying. Yeah. No,

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Speaker 1: I mean the poles are the poles. But as I

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Speaker 1: said earlier, it's really the younger generation. I mean it

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Speaker 1: is the team, the teenager is, the millennials. They are

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Speaker 1: who aren't in the store. So depending on who took

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Speaker 1: that pole. But they're spending. Um, there's lots of shopping

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Speaker 1: bags floating around. It's busy and it's just getting busier.

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Speaker 1: Put And we were just talking to Daniel di Martino Booth.

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Speaker 1: She's the CEO and chief strategist that Quill Intelligence, and

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Speaker 1: she was just pointing out that the consumers not as

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Speaker 1: strong as maybe we think. The consumer has drawn down savings,

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Speaker 1: credit card debt is going up. What are the retail

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Speaker 1: companies say about the health of the consumer. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'd agree with that. I mean, retailers have been concerned

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Speaker 1: for some time that consumers are going to be pinged,

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Speaker 1: and that's why their bargain hunting and deal hunting, which

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Speaker 1: is maybe why it's so busy today, right because somewhere

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Speaker 1: in their minds they know that's the best field they're

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Speaker 1: going to occur this weekend. So if they want to

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Speaker 1: save money, if they want to get maximized what's on

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Speaker 1: their wallets, they need to be out today. They need

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Speaker 1: to be buying over this weekend. Yeah, I was thinking

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Speaker 1: about I was just looking at Visa uh, and I'm

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Speaker 1: going to be interested to see what Visa master card

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Speaker 1: all of those folks have to say. No, no, are

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Speaker 1: you still there? Punham? Maybe we lost her? Um, she's dropped. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: she's out and about and she's checking out she said

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Speaker 1: Dick Sporting good which I do think like when it

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Speaker 1: comes to shopping around the holidays, sometimes those specialty stores,

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Speaker 1: like people have very specific things on their wish lists

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Speaker 1: and they tend to do well. Um, I feel like,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether it's electronics, whether it's sports, whether it's

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of different items like this. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: was interested. I'm gonna be interested to see how this

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Speaker 1: all plays out in terms of the retail sales. Because

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Speaker 1: you come out of the pandemic and it's all about experiences, traveling. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know that kind of thing. But the consumers still

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Speaker 1: out there in Strantham and Punam. We we we got you back.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us again. So when you

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Speaker 1: think about a small segment of retail like sporting goods,

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Speaker 1: what do you look for? What do analysts look for

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Speaker 1: when I go to a sporting goods store and trying

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Speaker 1: to get a channel check, I think it's really the

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Speaker 1: inventory levels, right, So when you see the shelves, how

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Speaker 1: high are they stopped? Are they picked through? Our consumers

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Speaker 1: gravitating towards one brand versus another, and then looking across

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Speaker 1: the brand, right, is Nike more on sale than Idia does?

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Speaker 1: It's a lot more discounted. What are consumers picking after?

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Speaker 1: Those are kind of the things that we look for.

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Speaker 1: Dick Sporting Goods guys from about mid June it is

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Speaker 1: up almost seventy percent, so it has had quite a

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Speaker 1: run and quite a rally. Is there something to it?

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Speaker 1: You know, we were talking Paula myself put it just

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Speaker 1: this whole idea that when it comes to holidays, you know,

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Speaker 1: when it's something very special or specialty store, I feel

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Speaker 1: like those are the things that tend to show up

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Speaker 1: on wish lists. Um, and I wonder if that's the

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Speaker 1: case when you look at retail and what tends to

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Speaker 1: do better? Is it? Is it those firms and those

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Speaker 1: companies and those retailers that have something very special and

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Speaker 1: unique to offer. Yeah, I think it's value or it's

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Speaker 1: something very special and very special. The only name that

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Speaker 1: comes to mind really is that See. I think that's

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Speaker 1: where at he's been driving all year and they will

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Speaker 1: continue to because they truly offer differentiated products, customer and

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Speaker 1: more personalized products. And put when we talk to retail

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Speaker 1: experts like yourself, you know, a topic that comes up

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Speaker 1: as kind of the US being overstored. There's still too

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Speaker 1: many stores for the demand out there. But this is

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Speaker 1: an issue we've been talking about for years and years.

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Speaker 1: Where are we now in terms of the industry, and

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's retail footprint. I think there still are

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Speaker 1: too many stores, and I think you will continue to

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Speaker 1: see see store consolidation. But then there are stores that

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Speaker 1: need to expand. To write, whether it's the off price retailer,

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Speaker 1: there's some of the growth groups where some of the

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Speaker 1: international retailers, they're trying to gain presence here, whether it's

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Speaker 1: like a Prime Mark which is a value oriented retailer,

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Speaker 1: or um some of the brands that are just looking

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Speaker 1: to open up some retail out with but they're all

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Speaker 1: looking in the same space. They're all looking at area,

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Speaker 1: so you know, the shorthills mall and malls like the

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Speaker 1: Garden State Plausa. It's hard to still find real estates

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Speaker 1: there because that's where people want to be. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's interesting. I was looking at Etsy to you like there.

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Speaker 1: I guess it was like around mid June there a

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Speaker 1: lot of retailers kind of bottomed out, or at least

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Speaker 1: a recent bottom. It is up sevent since. Made you

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Speaker 1: like that is pretty remarkable. Um. I was thinking about

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Speaker 1: so many stories put them coming into Black Friday that

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Speaker 1: we said, you know, maybe tempered demand, maybe it's not

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Speaker 1: going to be as optimism. Are you getting ready to

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Speaker 1: kind of rethink your research based on what you're seeing

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Speaker 1: and what you're hearing from the team. What we see

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Speaker 1: today is that it's Black Friday is back in motion.

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Speaker 1: People are shopping, people are spending. It doesn't look muted

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Speaker 1: to me by any means, but you know, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of holiday shopping still to go. This weekend is

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Speaker 1: just the beginning. So if everyone has shopped this weekend

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Speaker 1: and they don't go back out over the next three weeks,

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Speaker 1: then holiday sales could still come in at the estimates

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Speaker 1: that we've seen around which are normalized to be four

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Speaker 1: to eight percent growth. So it really the beginning is

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Speaker 1: off to a great start, but we need to see

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Speaker 1: if that momentum continues for the next three weeks because

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Speaker 1: the bulk of holiday shopping still lies ahead of us,

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Speaker 1: especially as bill's are to come in. It's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: well that we needed to hey, put them. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure if you've spoken to your counterpart in London, Charles Allen,

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Speaker 1: who covers retail for Bloomberg Intelligence. What's the expectation for

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Speaker 1: good friends over there in England or maybe just you're

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Speaker 1: broadly defined. I have not spoken to my London London counterproducts.

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Speaker 1: I have spoken of people on the West Coast and

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Speaker 1: they're seeing the same trend. We have an analyst at

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Speaker 1: in the malls there and it's busy. It's the same

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Speaker 1: stores that are seeing the traffic. Where do you go

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Speaker 1: from here? And we've you've been so great talking to

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Speaker 1: us at the top of each hour. You know, you

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Speaker 1: started off at the Freehold Freehold Mall, mall? Excuse me,

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Speaker 1: you went to Coals, You're off to Dicks. Where else

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Speaker 1: are you going to go check out? Today? So there's

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Speaker 1: another smaller mall, and I do want to go check

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Speaker 1: out the off price retailers which are in Black Friday destination,

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Speaker 1: but they do offer a lot of value to see

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Speaker 1: if traffic picks up. It usually picks up later in

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Speaker 1: the day. They're at the tv xs of the world.

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Speaker 1: But um, and then maybe take another trip back to

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Speaker 1: the mall to see does it get busier or is

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Speaker 1: it just you know through three four o'clock and then

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Speaker 1: the mall is kind of normalized it all right? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe I'll go out and if you want,

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Speaker 1: I'll go to shorth Host Mall for you and report back.

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Speaker 1: But that would you don't have to pay me a lot,

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Speaker 1: get a drive by. He's already said it. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think I might just drive by and I'll take a

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Speaker 1: picture of the parking lot and send it to you. Uh, Danielle, sorry,

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Speaker 1: but put him Goyle, thanks so much for joining us

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Speaker 1: again at the top of the hour giving us the

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Speaker 1: latest on what's going on in Black Friday, and put him.

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Speaker 1: Goyle covers all that retail stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. So

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Speaker 1: it just seems like every FED president speaks all the time.

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Speaker 1: Has that always been the case? It just seems like

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Speaker 1: more and more every time we turn around when they're

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Speaker 1: not in the quiet period, we're hearing from a FED Now.

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Speaker 1: I guess it's Yeah, the only person I care about

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Speaker 1: is a j pal, and I guess we're gonna hear

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Speaker 1: from him next week. And so when I want to

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Speaker 1: get a sense on what's going on at the FED

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Speaker 1: and on the economy, large return to Danielle di Martino Booth.

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Speaker 1: She's the CEO and chief strategist that Quill Intelligence, former

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Speaker 1: advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She's or

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Speaker 1: go to voice on this stuff. So, Danielle, what is

428
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,719
Speaker 1: my FED chairman going to tell me next week? Uh?

429
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: I think, I think if that chair Um come Wednesday

430
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 1: is going to be resolute, even though reading through those

431
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: minutes on Wednesday it revealed that he is increasingly alone

432
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: in standing up against the doves. Um. By the way,

433
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 1: it is Friday, so I've got the Some people have

434
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: the clock running down to New Year's Eve. I've got

435
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 1: the clock running down to blackout, which is seven days

436
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: from now, which is when those set officials. Now, that's

437
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: a really good point, Um. And it did feel like

438
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: the minutes, you know, even though they were a few

439
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: weeks old, at this point, there was something almost for

440
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 1: everyone Danielle and that maybe we'll see smaller increases by

441
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: the f O m C, but still we're talking about

442
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: a higher ultimate Fed funds rate. UM, So it did

443
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: feel like there was something for everyone. What could J

444
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 1: Powell say when he addresses the Brookings Institution in wash

445
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 1: Ington on Wednesday. He's going to talk economy, is going

446
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: to talk about the labor market, He's going to take

447
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: audience questions, brave man. What could he say that could

448
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: change the thinking about Fed policy? I think as long

449
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 1: as J. Powell sticks to his narrative that you know,

450
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: going from to fifty is still unusually large. Right, we

451
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: didn't have fifty until before this there were still at

452
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: twice the magnitude, and that and that he sees nothing

453
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,719
Speaker 1: on the immediate horizon that suggests that the FED has

454
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: achieved returning to two percent, meaning we're not accustomed to

455
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: the FED bringing the FED funds rate up and keeping

456
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: it there. And I think he's going to re emphasize

457
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 1: his idea of until the job is done, and that

458
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: is going to fly in the face of those who

459
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: are expecting some kind of easing in the near term.

460
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: I say near term meaning six to nine months. I

461
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 1: think he's going to refute that idea. So the Bolk

462
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: case out there for risk assets, I guess Daniel is

463
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 1: particated to some degree that, Hey, the FED has already

464
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: raised the interest rates pretty substantially and lo and behold,

465
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: it's actually working. Whether you look at the housing market

466
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: and maybe look at some of the commodity prices rolling

467
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: over that a pause is a reasonable thing. But you're

468
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 1: suggesting that's not where our FED chairman is. It's not

469
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: that he doesn't remember he's the lawyer. He's not a

470
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 1: PhD in economics. He follows the real time data, probably

471
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: more closely than a PhD in economics who would follow

472
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: only seconally adjusted long data series. He knows what's happening

473
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: in the in the in the market, but again, financial

474
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 1: conditions remain very loose historically speaking, and I think that

475
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: that is more of his target, is trying to flush

476
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 1: out this whole speculative nature that we've had in the

477
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: markets for the last forty years. If his I've been maintaining,

478
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: he's got a grander plan. He's trying to put monetary

479
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 1: policy making back in the hands of the people. The

480
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: officials at the Federal Reserve as opposed to the market

481
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: make monetary policy on behalf of the Fed the tail

482
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: wagging the dog. But it is hard for to be

483
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: fair for the Fed. It feels like Danielle, especially when

484
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: you do whether it's the pandemic that causes all of

485
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: a sudden precedented stimulus to be out there. Uh, you know,

486
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: we constantly see when we run into trouble that it

487
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: does feel like lawmakers UM in Washington are quick to

488
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,239
Speaker 1: kind of help out and lend a hand, and that

489
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: create changes kind of the liquidity story and does make

490
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: it trickier for the FED. It does, UM and you know,

491
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: to the point of some St. Louis Fed research. You know,

492
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: we injected forty three of g d P into the

493
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: economy inside of twelve months. You know that compares to

494
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: that the entire New Dealer forty fort of GDP. It

495
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: does make it more difficult, but we have to remember

496
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: that they monetized every last penny of that. So the

497
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 1: Fed played the role of enabler um. By the way,

498
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: I don't think you get that out of this next congress.

499
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: I don't think you get the same form of stimulus

500
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: as we as there's a greater recognition of recession. Eight

501
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 1: weeks ago, we had one stay with rising unemployment state

502
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: initial unemployment claims. As of the nineteenth Wednesday's report, we

503
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 1: have twenty nine states with rising initial state unemployment claims.

504
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: But that's a real shift. That's kind of where I

505
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: want to go, Danielle, because we're gonna get a jobs

506
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: numbered next week. But we've got record low unemployment. We've

507
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: been hearing from our retail analyst on the top of

508
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: every hour, here is out at the shopping malls. People

509
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: are out there shopping. It seems like we've got a

510
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: pretty strong consumer judging. If nothing else everybody's kind of

511
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 1: got a job, well, but everybody doesn't kind of have

512
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: a job. If if if jobless claims were down forty

513
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: eight point nine percent, that was the best that it

514
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: was right down as good jobless claims down, you over

515
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,479
Speaker 1: your nationwide As of September, as of the nineteenth, jobless

516
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: claims were only down two point zero percent. In other words,

517
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: the time we get Thursday's print, this next Thursday's print,

518
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: jobless claims nationwide are going to be rising year over year.

519
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: That's why I think high high income consumers in University

520
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 1: of Michigan data are telling you that they expect the

521
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 1: unemployment rate to rise as opposed to that middle here

522
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 1: and the lowest tier. They don't see it coming yet,

523
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: so do you. We go as far as to say

524
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: that FED policy it is working. We see it in

525
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: the housing market. And I agree with you that last

526
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: weekly jobless print showed, you know that things are starting

527
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: to slow down in the labor market. We still have

528
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: ways to go. And you know, we certainly saw in

529
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 1: the FOMC minutes to you know, FED staff warning of

530
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: a chance of recession in next year's now near fifty percent.

531
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: So FED policy is working. Oh, it absolutely is. I mean,

532
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: obviously you see it most in interest rate sensitive sectors.

533
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: But for heaven's sake, I was I was just telling

534
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 1: a friend we had a furniture Manufacturerloyees announced that they

535
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: were closing, like shutting up shop. We're not talking young

536
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 1: furniture manufacturer in Mississippi. Let's go on Tuesday period end.

537
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: There will be ripple effects into the economy from this

538
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: slamming the brakes on the housing market. It's not just

539
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,479
Speaker 1: going to be contained mortgage lenders. It's going to have

540
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: broader economic rammifications. And we're beginning to see that. I

541
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 1: suspect we'll see a lull in layoff activity in the

542
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: month of December, because who wants to lay people off

543
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: right in front of the holidays? And then we get January,

544
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: and then we get January, and it's gonna hurt. Hey, Danielle,

545
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: you're in When I think of one of the most

546
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: vibrant markets in the United States, Dallas Fort Worth area,

547
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 1: that metroplex down there, how's the economy down there? Well,

548
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: the economy down here is still relatively strong. If you

549
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: look at the nation as a whole. Um Texas unemployment claims,

550
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,479
Speaker 1: you're still down four. So we're just on the cusp

551
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 1: of starting to enter recession in Texas. It has certainly

552
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: been delayed because of the mass um migration here to

553
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: these markets, but even here you're seeing homebuilders put incentives

554
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 1: out there, cut home prices and not gain any traction.

555
00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: And that tells you something about basically, if you follow

556
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: the entrails of consumer confidence, there's now a recognition. And

557
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: I think that that's what's critical is nationwide people have

558
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: recognized that we're going into recessions. This isn't just a

559
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: CEO survey. This is a broader recognition among the public

560
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 1: and that's a game change. Or whenever in any cycle,

561
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: whenever you get to that point of recognition, that's when

562
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: things start to change. Danielle. We heard from Lyle him

563
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: back him by earlier of Grantit Group Advisors reminding us

564
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: g d P is retail sales. So this is something

565
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: obviously we're focused on today. Because of Black Friday. We've

566
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: been talking with our Punum Goyle, a Bloomberg intelligence out

567
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: at the malls. They're busy, they're getting busier, people waiting

568
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: for parking spots. Black Friday can be a great data

569
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: point for the Federal Reserve in terms of whether or

570
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 1: not consumers feel confident about shopping. At the same time,

571
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: I think it was maybe the New York FED that

572
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: put out some data about, you know, Americans, consumers are

573
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: adding more to their credit cards. So how might the

574
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: FED take Black Friday Cyber Monday data and kind of

575
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 1: at it into their thinking about FED policy. Well, I

576
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: think I think consumer confidence, in the way you describe

577
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: it um really speaks to people's willingness to completely max

578
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: out their credit cards. And the data that's not being

579
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: followed as closely is that we're about tapped out in

580
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: terms of credit card lines, so and we've taken savings

581
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 1: down to such a level on a nominal basis that

582
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: there wasn't enough savings to spend what Americans spent last

583
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: December in terms of burning through their savings. The willingness

584
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: is a corollary, if you will, to financial conditions being easy.

585
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: Many Americans have never lived through the double difpercession of

586
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties, and they don't they don't know of

587
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: a FED that doesn't come in and rescue the economy

588
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: very quickly and not let the pain be failed. And

589
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: I think that's how many. That's how many households and

590
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: many investors are operating. Daniel. We're gonna get the Jolts

591
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: data next week job openings, and it's still a big number.

592
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 1: It seems to me more than ten million. How do

593
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: you interpret the Jolt's number or do you just kind

594
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: of toss it aside? You know, I don't toss it aside.

595
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: I allowed some FED staff papers to allow me to

596
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: tos us it aside. If you if you net FED research,

597
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: there's the irony is that Powell is ignoring FED research.

598
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: If you net out job postings that are written specifically

599
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: to poach existing employed individuals. So I want to get

600
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: a good employee from my competition and hire them for

601
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: more money. If you net those types of job postings out,

602
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: according to Federal research data, your job openings are basically flat.

603
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: There was a little bumped during COVID, but otherwise basically

604
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: flat job openings for people who are unemployed. So there's

605
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: a critical distinction to be made there. It's a weird economy,

606
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: I think, making sense of it and coming out of

607
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: this pandemic, right, we haven't lived through this before. Um,

608
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: so what is this thing? I mean? FED policy monetary policy,

609
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: never never assure thing there is in a playbook that

610
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: says this is exactly what you have to do. Daniel,

611
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: you know this better than most. So what is the

612
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: tricky thing? What is the major risk factor right here

613
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: at this point in time for J. Powell and Company.

614
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: So the way I liken it's for for Quill's clients

615
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: is cycle compression. So the way that he brushed off

616
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: the idea of lag when he was the podium, as

617
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: opposed to being recognized and written into the statement up

618
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: by the doves. And my greatest concern is that fannimated

619
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: research that showed that on average it takes five quarters

620
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: for home price increases in home price declines to manifest

621
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: in the consumer price inflation consumer price index. It's taking

622
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: only half of that time. In other words, the magnitude

623
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: of the FED rate hiking cycle plus q T in

624
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: the background is moving monetary policy into the real economy

625
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 1: at twice the speed as what we've seen when it

626
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 1: used to be Alan Greenspan seventeen rate hikes in a row,

627
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: only any five basis points at a time. So I

628
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: think that that's what we have to pay attention to,

629
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: is the rapidity with which lag is making its mark

630
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: on the real economy. Hey, Danielle, just thirty seconds left.

631
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 1: What's the what do you get asked the most right

632
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: now by your clients? Hey? Explain this to us what

633
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: my clients want to know the most right now? Or

634
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: why are credit spreads as wide as they are and

635
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: what's going to break? And my stock answer is you

636
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: have to pay attention to other parts of the world.

637
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: How yielding in Europe is degrading at a much faster pace.

638
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: The credit event will happen, but so far because financial

639
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: conditions remain easy. It's going to keep the Feds pedal

640
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: to the metal, so to speak. But credit remains on

641
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: everybody's front mind. It always does end in credit. Danielle,

642
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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Really appreciate and have a great weekend.

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Speaker 1: Danielle de Martinez de Martino excuse me, Booth CEO and

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Speaker 1: chief strategist over at Quill Intelligence. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

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Speaker 1: interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three

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Speaker 1: on Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before

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Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio