1 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: Hey guys, So are you welcome into a Thursday morning, 2 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: a Thanksgiving edition of the Daily Judice podcast. I'm your host, 3 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: Matt Parolt here on Bettingpros dot Com, always being brought 4 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. And we are obviously here, 5 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: not in my home studio or obviously here in Boston 6 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: or outside of Boston, in my hometown of andre vermass 7 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: And this is where we're gonna be for the next 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: couple of podcasts. Okay, so we're gonna go right into 9 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: it here today. I've already given you guys three plays. 10 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,279 Speaker 1: The numbers have moved a little bit, so you get 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: some better numbers than what we actually bet yesterday. If 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: you guys haven't come in yet with the Bears that 13 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: number now it's gone below three. A ton of money's 14 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: come in here on the Lions, all the respected money 15 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 1: coming in here on the Lions. The Pros really are 16 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: fading the Bears after what's going on here with Matt Nagi. 17 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: But I'm just gonna take the better football team here. 18 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: I don't like the Lions at all. They're O nine 19 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: and one, and I still like the Bears. Even in 20 00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You get a better number. 21 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: I'm not stressed out about the line move. I'm not 22 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: stressed out about the professional line movement on this and 23 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: people thinking the lines are going to win a game 24 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: here or cover. I just I'll take the three, like 25 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: two and a half even better here for Chicago. So 26 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: the first play gave you yesterday minus two and a 27 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: half on the Bears. Second number is the Raiders on 28 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: the road at the Cowboys. That number was eight for 29 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 1: a moment. It's been seven and a half and it's 30 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: kind of been stuck there for a while. We same 31 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,639 Speaker 1: game parlayed this. We pulled this number down Cowboys minus 32 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: one and a half, took the total from fifty one, 33 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 1: which is now fifty one and a half. We put 34 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: it up to fifty seven and took the under. I 35 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: think this is a public line move here for the 36 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: unders to come in. I don't actually think that the 37 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: over is the right side here, given where we are 38 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: defensively for the Raiders and just how many games have 39 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: gone under for the Cowboys in a row. So I 40 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: think the public is just expecting points here. But I'm 41 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: not really sure we're going to see points, even though 42 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: I know that the Cowboys offense could put up big points, 43 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: and that's why people are kind of hammering that. But 44 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: I think that that number for the for the Raiders 45 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: kind of leads me to believe that maybe it's a 46 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: lower scoring game that people think. So we're going same 47 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: game park on that with the Raiders and the Cowboys, 48 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: and then we're going with the Bills that number now 49 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: with six and a half, we laid six. It's six 50 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: and a half with the Bills and the Saints coming 51 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: up here today for Thursday for Thanksgiving. So, as Alton 52 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 1: have often happens here, these podcasts when I'm on the road, 53 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: when I'm on vacation, tend to be a little faster 54 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: than normal, a little quicker than normal. So I kind 55 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: of get right to it. I give you guys the plays, 56 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: and we kind of get out of here. So a 57 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: little bit of a quicker pod than what we normally have, 58 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 1: simply because it's the holidays, it's Thanksgiving, you guys, I 59 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: want I don't want you spending time listening to the podcast. 60 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: I want you to being with your family and taking 61 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: a second to be thankful for everything you got. Your 62 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: health first and foremost, your family's health first and foremost 63 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: as well, Hopefully everything's going well for you. Forget the wagers, 64 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: get the betting. Hopefully it hits for us and does 65 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: well for us. But you know, not that big of 66 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: a deal. We have fun with this, right The real 67 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: important thing is the food, the fun, the family and 68 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: the entertainment and things you guys are going to have 69 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: coming up here today watching football and hanging out. So 70 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: I'll be with my brothers and you know, I'm making 71 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: my drive up to New Hampshire to place my bets today. 72 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: I've already loaded the account, which I learned you can 73 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: load the account when you're in masks. You just can't 74 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: go and bet when you're in mass use its. So 75 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: the account's already loaded and going to go on up 76 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: there and make the plays, and then I'll do the 77 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 1: bet MGM offer coming up in New Jersey, which hopefully 78 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: will happen for Monday night football. We'll talk more about 79 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: that coming up a libit later on. But you guys 80 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: always know that code ten that offer ten dollars to 81 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: win one hundred and fifty bucks on any event. Use 82 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: that promo code Juice one fifty at BETMGM and betmgym 83 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: dot com. Promo code juice one fifty to jump in 84 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: with that. We're always on YouTube, so if you guys 85 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 1: want to see where I'm at, you can see the 86 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: hotel room that I'm in, you guys, you'll go ahead 87 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: and take a look at that as to where we 88 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: are here at the courtyard Marriott and andover mass jusits 89 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: is where I'm located here taping this. So okay, let's 90 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: get to the picks for today. Let's start in college football. 91 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: Let's start with the egg Bowl here. Egg Bowl is 92 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: really going to be interesting. I love Ole Miss. You 93 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: guys know this, but it's interesting straight up. Ole Miss 94 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: Mssippi State over the last twenty games is ten and 95 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: ten both teams ole Miss nine, ten and one against 96 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: the spread. The total has gone over only five times 97 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: in the last fifteen meetings between ole Miss and Missippi State. 98 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: Big play on the under if you want to jump 99 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: in here on the under for this game. I'm not 100 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: gonna hate on it by any means. I think there 101 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: could be some value jumping in here on the under 102 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: for this. But for me, I look at ole Miss 103 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: and I look at the fact that this team has 104 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: had a tremendous run this season with Matt Carral. I 105 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: know there's been some good bright spots for Missippi State, 106 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,119 Speaker 1: but if you go through the history here, Ole Miss 107 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: has lost two of the last four of these games, 108 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: which is typical, right ten and ten, you'd expect that 109 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: Ole Miss was nine and a half point favorites at 110 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: home last year and they won the game by seven. 111 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: It did not cover. Ole Miss was catching two and 112 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 1: a half points against Missipi against misss State last year 113 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: and they wound up losing the game. Actually sorry, they're 114 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: laying one and a half and they wound up or 115 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: losing the game by one to They are one a 116 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: half point favorites and they lost by one on the road. 117 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: Last time we played in twenty eighteen in Starkville, it 118 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: was a twelve and a half point number for ole Miss. 119 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 1: Mississ State was heavily favored and they won the game easily, 120 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: going away thirty five to three. Game before that, in 121 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, back in Starkfille, where this game is getting 122 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: played here today, it was a thirty one to twenty 123 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: eight victory for ole Miss coming up against Mississippi State. 124 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: They were fourteen point favorites in that game. They did 125 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: not cover in that game, they won, but they didn't cover, 126 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: so I'm sorry. They were catching fourteen points and then 127 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: one outright, so they did cover in that game. So 128 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: you know, when you look at the offenses here and 129 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: look at where we've been between these two teams, it's 130 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,239 Speaker 1: pretty interesting. So let's just take a look at against 131 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: the spread so far this season. Missippi State this year 132 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: seven sorry, six and four and one against the spread. 133 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: Missippi State is seven and four against the spread at 134 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: home three and three for the Bulldogs, Ole missed the 135 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: Rebels two and two on the roads. Not a lot 136 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: you can glean form that except the run. The Missippi 137 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: State has been on against the number, and this is 138 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: one reason why I think the number is plus two 139 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: here and why it's been climbing from the opener of 140 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: minus one to plus two. Missisippi State has covered their 141 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: last five games and six of the last seven they 142 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: have covered. They have been very very good blowout win 143 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: last week, they beat Auburn as six point dogs. They 144 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: lost by three to Arkansas as four point dogs lost 145 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: they won by fourteen points, laying one to Kentucky, they 146 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: won by thirty nine points again Vanderbilt laying twenty one 147 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: points on the road they got killed by Bama, But 148 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: before that they beat Texas A and M, which surprised 149 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: a lot of people when they were on the road 150 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: going into College Station and getting that big victory, winning 151 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: it by four as seven point road dogs. On the 152 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: other side, ole Miss did not cover last week against Vanderbilt. 153 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: Didn't look great, But maybe a look ahead spot to 154 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: this game for them coming up here attance to win 155 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: ten football games for ole Miss and maybe play in 156 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: a New Year six Bowl game. Ten point win over 157 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: Texas A and M. They covered that eleven point line there. 158 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: Both these teams beat A and M. Against Liberty they 159 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: won by thirteen, laying seven and a half. At home 160 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 1: against Auburn they lost by eleven, laying three. They didn't 161 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 1: cover that game, but they covered against LSU at home 162 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: and Tennessee on the road laying one and they won 163 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: by five. So I think a lot of people are 164 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: just naturally saying bet the over sixty four sixty five 165 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: for this game. But I think there's actually more value 166 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: on the under here in this game if you want 167 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: to play on a total here. But I just think 168 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: if you get two or two and a half points, 169 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: the heck maybe you can get three points here. I'm 170 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: gonna take Matt corrall. I'm going to take this offense 171 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: for ole Miss to go in there, and I think 172 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: it's still an open race for the heisman. Matt Correll 173 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: is still there. He's got to pick up first downs 174 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: with his legs, really really important for them to be 175 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: able to move the chains with his legs, but he 176 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: was able to do that. I just think that this 177 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: offense Lane Kivn is gonna go for it on fourth down. 178 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: I just think that they've got the better quarterback and 179 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: they got the better offense. Here. Between these two teams, 180 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: you got an ole Miss offense that's averaging thirty five 181 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: points per game. Misispi State's only giving up twenty six 182 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: points per game. On the other side, the Bulldogs are 183 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: scoring twenty nine point five points per game. Ole Miss 184 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: defense hasn't been bad this year, twenty six point two 185 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: points per game given up for them. You got a 186 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: four point nine yards per rush for Mississippi. But the 187 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: key there is they've got to get Matt Correll involved 188 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: in the running attack, passing attack. We know what it is. 189 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: They're averaging over two hundred and eighty five yards per game. 190 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: Through the air, Missippi State gives up some passing yards 191 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty five yards per game given up. That's, 192 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: you know, outside the top seventy in the country. And 193 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: on the other side, Missippi State they like to throw 194 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: the ball a lot. In fact, they throw the ball 195 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,119 Speaker 1: with the air raid offense and Mike Leach the most 196 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: of anybody in football in college football. Fifty four point 197 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: six passes per game. That's really high. In fact, that's 198 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: nearly double what Missippi State. Sorry what Mississippi normally gives 199 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: up thirty two point two yards per game. You can 200 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: run these guys, but you can kind of pass on them. 201 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: It's okay, two hundred and thirty five yards per game 202 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: given up. The pass rush for Mississippi is pretty good. 203 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 1: They get after the quarterback and well, frankly, this is 204 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: a team that you know, if you are going to 205 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 1: turn the football over, Missippi State is a team that 206 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: may be able to do that. Ole miss one point 207 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: eight takeaways per game, that's top twenty in the country. 208 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: On the other side, giveaways per game Mississippi one point 209 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: three giveaways per game. That's not great for them, and 210 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: so this game could be hinging on a turnover or two. Here, 211 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: I got a road dog catching two two and a 212 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: half points. Shop around, grab two and a half. They're 213 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: out there. Take it, Ole Miss plus two and a 214 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 1: half for a half a unit here in the egg 215 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: Bowl half a unit Ole Miss on the road catching 216 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 1: two and a half. I don't mind a money line 217 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: sprinkle here at all. I think almost wins the game outright. 218 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: But I'll take the two and a half points here 219 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: two and a half plus plus two and a half 220 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: Ole Miss up against Missippi State for a half a unit. Okay, 221 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 1: so let's talk a little bit about some two NFL 222 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 1: player props to jump in here, and let's start with 223 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: what's happening for the New Orleans Saints. So this is 224 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: from our guy one, mister Dan Harris, who made a 225 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: pretty good to point. Send me some text messages saying, hey, 226 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: I know you're looking for props. We're not gonna talk, 227 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: but here's a prop that I would play, and I 228 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: think there's some really good value on this. You can 229 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: get this at DraftKings at plus four hundred or maybe 230 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: even as high as plus five hundred. I'm gonna play 231 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: this here for a quarter unit. So exactly how are 232 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: the Saints going to score? Okay, so Alvin Kamara is 233 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: probably out. They gave this out on the Betting pros 234 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,199 Speaker 1: pod earlier. And you have a team that's had a 235 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: tough time scoring in the red zone and a tough 236 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: time scoring period. Taysom Hill most likely is going to 237 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: be the goal line offense for the Saints here today 238 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: against the Bills. And frankly, you can run on the Bills. 239 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 1: We know you can run on the Bills. You can 240 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: run the Bills in the red zone. How are you 241 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: gonna do that when you've got backup mark Ingram could 242 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: be a vulture here, but Tasom Hill very well might be. 243 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: In any time touchdown score and at plus four hundred, 244 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: you put a quarter unit down and you can literally 245 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: quadruple that bet. I think it's a hell of a bet. 246 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: I think that's a really nice play. It's worth it's 247 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,079 Speaker 1: great value. I'm gonna give that for sure here. I 248 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: like Dan Harris on this, I'm gonna trail them. We're 249 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 1: gonna go Taysom Hill anytime touchdown score today for a 250 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: quarter unit plus four hundreds. Where I'm gonna get it. 251 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: At DraftKings, you guys may get it at plus five 252 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: hundred other places. Let's go plus four hundred Taysom Hill 253 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: anytime touchdown score for a quarter unit for the Bills 254 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: and the Saints, and for the last quarter unit. Because 255 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: we don't leave quarter unit hanging. We're gonna come in 256 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: and we're gonna look at the passing numbers. For one 257 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 1: mister Derek Carr. DraftKings has him right now at two 258 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two. Bet MGM has him at two 259 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty one yards per for an over under 260 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: for passing yards. The projection on the prop bet cheat 261 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: sheet is two hundred and ninety two yards, and that's 262 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: over thirty one yards of value you're getting here with 263 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: Derek Carr passing the football. And you might go, who 264 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: they gonna to the football too? Okay. I get that 265 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to work in some other players potentially 266 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: here Edwards and Waller and whatnot. But I'm betting this 267 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 1: because I think there's a good chance that the Raiders 268 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: could be down big in this game. I think that 269 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: they could be I mean, the running game might be 270 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,199 Speaker 1: out the window. I don't know if they're gonna be 271 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: able to slow down the Cowboys here I think this 272 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: is a wide open game. Again, we tease this to 273 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: fifty seven and bet the under, but it could be 274 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: like a thirty to ten type of game here and 275 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: in Derek Carr is having to pass the football like crazy. 276 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: I think over two hundred and sixty one yards is 277 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 1: a good bet here, Derek Carr over two hundred and 278 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: sixty one yards for a quarter unit is the last 279 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: bet of the day here for us. Two prop bets 280 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: going for us here for the Daily Juice podcast. Okay, 281 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 1: so to recap the entire card, we're taking the Bills 282 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 1: minus three, although you get two and a half now 283 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: same game parlayed Cowboys down to mius one and a half, 284 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: teasing it up to fifty seven now seven and a 285 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: half and taking the under, and that for one unit 286 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: play one unit play in the Bills, SOS play on 287 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: the sorry on the Bears, and minus three against the Lions. 288 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 1: And then we are taking the Bills minus six now 289 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: six and a half. I would not go any higher 290 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: than I like six. Really, I mean serious, I don't 291 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: like six and a half. I like six. So I 292 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: mean I if it's six and a half, you can 293 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: buy a half a point buy to half a point. 294 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 1: I like six because if it goes to overtime, you 295 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: guys can we're guaranteed at least a push if they 296 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: wind up losing to the Saints. Here Bill is minus six. 297 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: It's an important number to me with this for one unit, 298 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: and then we're taking Ole Miss plus two and a 299 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: half in the Egg Bowl, we're going Taysom Hill anytime 300 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: touchdown score for plus four hundred, and we're taking over 301 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: Derek Carr passing numbers of two hundred sixty one yards 302 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: for Derek Carr for a quarter unit for us. Here 303 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 1: for one more unit in play, Happy Thanksgiving, enjoy your food, 304 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: have a great time. We'll have a lot more coming 305 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: up as we continue here during this Thanksgiving Day week 306 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: minus Matt parlat You can follow me on Twitter at 307 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt. Each and the morning, it's the Daily 308 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: Juice podcast, always being brought to you by Bett MGM.