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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat fitz Morris.

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Speaker 1: That's Bou mcbraer. We finally got some final round drama

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Speaker 1: on a Sunday afternoon, and now the PGA Tour is

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Speaker 1: giving us the first signature event of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to our betting preview of the AT and

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Speaker 1: T Pebble Beach Pro Am in just a moment, but

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Speaker 1: first a brief recap of the WM Phoenix Open. Chris

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Speaker 1: Godderup gets his second win of the year. He won

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Speaker 1: the very first event of twenty twenty six, the Sony

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Speaker 1: Open last month, and on Sunday he won the Phoenix

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Speaker 1: Open after beating Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff. We hadn't

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Speaker 1: gotten an exciting finish in four previous twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: PGA Tour events, but there was plenty of drama and Phoenix.

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Speaker 1: We had a lot of good players in contention throughout

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Speaker 1: the weekend, and there were usually half a dozen players

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Speaker 1: within striking distance of the lead when we were getting

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Speaker 1: TV time on Saturday and Sunday, so that was pretty cool.

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Speaker 1: Hideki Matsuyama either had the lead to himself or was

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Speaker 1: tied for the lead for much of the weekend, even

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Speaker 1: though he was having all sorts of trouble finding fairways

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Speaker 1: with his tee shots, especially on Sunday. Matsuyama came to

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Speaker 1: the eighteenth hole on Sunday with a one shot lead

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Speaker 1: over got Her Up, who's already done with his round.

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Speaker 1: Matsuyama hit his tee shot into the church pew bunkers

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Speaker 1: on the left. Then he failed to clear a glass

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Speaker 1: a grass mound with his shot from the fairway bunker,

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Speaker 1: pitched it to about twenty four feet, and then with

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Speaker 1: a par putt to win the tournament. Padeki took the

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Speaker 1: putter away but then had to abort the pott when

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Speaker 1: a rowdy person yelled something in his backswing of his pott.

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Speaker 1: I guess you would say, got over the ball again,

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Speaker 1: and this time he missed on the right side, but

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Speaker 1: he made his three foot comebacker, setting up the playoff

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Speaker 1: with got Her Up. They played the eighteenth hole again.

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Speaker 1: Got Her Up hit a beautiful drive that left him

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Speaker 1: less than one hundred yards into the green. Matsuyama was

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Speaker 1: about to start the down swing on his tee shot

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Speaker 1: when a courseworker apparently dropped a chair nearby. Somehow Matsuyama

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Speaker 1: aborted his drive on the downswing, stepped away, and when

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Speaker 1: he stepped back in to hit his t shot, he

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Speaker 1: pulled it into the water on the left. That pretty

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Speaker 1: much wrapped it up for got her up who hit

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Speaker 1: his approach to twenty seven feet and then just for

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Speaker 1: good measure, rolled in the pot for a birdie and

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Speaker 1: the victory. Poor Hideki. I mean he was trying for

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Speaker 1: his third Phoenix Open win, but loud noises and wildness

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Speaker 1: off the tea conspired against him. I'm imagining bo when

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Speaker 1: he was sitting down to dinner on Sunday night, someone

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Speaker 1: probably blasted in airhorn as he was about to take

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Speaker 1: his first bites. Yeah, he had to settle for second place,

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Speaker 1: finishing tied for third, one shot behind Godurub and metsu Yama,

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Speaker 1: where Scotti Scheffler, Sewu kim Aksha Batiya, Nikolai Hoigard and

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Speaker 1: Michael Thorbjornsen. Scotty was great for three rounds bow but

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Speaker 1: put himself behind the eight ball with a two over

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Speaker 1: par seventy three on Thursday. Your general thoughts on the

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Speaker 1: Phoenix Open.

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Speaker 2: I noticed more of those loud noises and or distractions,

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Speaker 2: and during Hideki's final round there were there were four

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Speaker 2: or five of them that you mentioned, and then his

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Speaker 2: approach shot before the chair dropped on eighteen the first

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Speaker 2: time around, the blimp was flying over and it cast

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Speaker 2: a shadow over him while he was trying to hit,

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Speaker 2: and like, that's just gotta be weird, a weird feeling.

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Speaker 2: And it seemed like the blimp was flying overhead every

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Speaker 2: hole that Hideki was on, and those aren't quiet. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're quieter than a jet overhead, but there's still plenty

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Speaker 2: of noise when they're flying over your head. And of

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Speaker 2: course you have the huge crowds that are out there

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Speaker 2: on Sunday following the lead groups. Tons of distractions, but

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Speaker 2: it was still the same tournament in the same conditions

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Speaker 2: for everybody, and typically Hideki's really good under pressure. It

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Speaker 2: just seemed like his game was he was fighting his

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Speaker 2: game a little bit more on Sunday than usual, and

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Speaker 2: so those distractions just kind of added up. But God,

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Speaker 2: rep man, he was one of my first looks earlier

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Speaker 2: in the week and he didn't make the cut, and

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Speaker 2: I'm kicking myself because I thought he could well at Scottsdale.

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Speaker 2: And then when I ran my model, I talked myself

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Speaker 2: out of it because he didn't do well in the model. Well,

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Speaker 2: I'm throwing that I'm pitching that model for Phoenix away.

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Speaker 2: Other than the four or five guys that we did

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Speaker 2: have in contention, we had the whole field surrounded with

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Speaker 2: good picks. But Chris Goddrup, the guy who didn't make

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Speaker 2: the cut, was the one who won. So I guess

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Speaker 2: we'll just take our take our l and move on

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Speaker 2: to the first signature event in Northern California. Shout out sir.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we did have the bullseye surrounded. I had a

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Speaker 1: top five on Pearson Cootie that I thought was looking

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Speaker 1: pretty good for a while. We both I think, had

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Speaker 1: top five's on Thigala. He was flirting with near the

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Speaker 1: lead for a while.

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Speaker 2: I had a top ten I added on thorby Jornsen

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Speaker 2: later in the week, and that didn't I mean it

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Speaker 2: paid out for top ten, but I thought he might win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, thorpe Jornsen. Where was it, Thor? Yeah it

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Speaker 1: was thorpe Bjornson, who, if he had birdied the eighteenth hole,

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Speaker 1: could have gotten into the play off at a long pot.

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Speaker 1: Couldn't get it. To sync. He was in that final group,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, that was it was an interesting tournament. Good

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Speaker 1: to see a close one. And now I think we've

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Speaker 1: had playoffs in seven of the last eleven years at Phoenix,

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Speaker 1: so that is definitely a tournament that seems to attract

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Speaker 1: drama and of course routiness too. And now the tour

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Speaker 1: heads back to California for two more events, both of

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Speaker 1: them signature events. It'll be the AT and T Pebble

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Speaker 1: Beach Pro Am this week than the Genesis Invitational next week.

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Speaker 1: The AT and T Pebble Beach Prime as a field

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Speaker 1: of eighty players and there will not be a cut

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Speaker 1: in this tournament, and the first two rounds players will

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Speaker 1: alternate between the Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill.

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Speaker 1: Then in each of the final two rounds they'll be

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Speaker 1: played at Pebble Beach. Spy Glass Hill is a par

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Speaker 1: seventy two measuring seven seventy one yards, not a very

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Speaker 1: long course. A lot of the par fours are pretty

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Speaker 1: short by tour standards, but the poe greens at Spyglass

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Speaker 1: Hill are on the small side. Five of the holes

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Speaker 1: at Spyglass play along the Pacific Coast, thirteen of the

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Speaker 1: holes play through the del Monte Forest. The fairways at

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Speaker 1: Spyglass Hill are pretty narrow and there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of elevation changes, so challenging course. Then you've got Pebble Beach,

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Speaker 1: of course, the classic venue on the PGA too, are

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Speaker 1: par seventy two that plays to just six nine eighty

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Speaker 1: nine yards, a very short course by tour standards. But

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach also has the smallest greens on the PGA tour.

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Speaker 1: The fairways are a little more generous than they are

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Speaker 1: at Spyglass Hill. You're going to see a lot of

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Speaker 1: players hitting less than driver off the tee and then

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Speaker 1: just hitting wedges into these small greens. But these POA

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Speaker 1: greens bo they're devilish. At Pebble Beach, you will see

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Speaker 1: a higher percentage of misses on pots of less than

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Speaker 1: ten feet than you will just about anywhere else except

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Speaker 1: maybe Augusta. It's going to be chilly for the pros

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Speaker 1: this week, with high temperatures in the upper fifties. They're

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Speaker 1: expecting winds of ten to fifteen miles per hour the

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Speaker 1: first two days, lighter breezes on Saturday, and windier conditions

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. There's also some rain in the forecast for Sunday.

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Speaker 1: That's not uncommon for Pebble Beach this time of year unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: so hopefully they'll be able to get all three rounds in.

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Speaker 1: Rory McElroy is the defending Pebble Beach Pro Am Pebble

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Speaker 1: Beach AT and T Pro Am Champ. He finished twenty

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Speaker 1: one under par last year to beat good buddy Shane

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Speaker 1: Lowry by two shots. Wyndam Clark won in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: That event was shortened three rounds because of weather. Clark

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Speaker 1: shot a final round sixty to beat Ludwig Oberg by

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Speaker 1: one stroke that year. Justin Rose here one in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three with a score of eighteen under par, and

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Speaker 1: Tom Hogy won the AT and T Pebble Beach Pro

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Speaker 1: Am in twenty twenty two with the score of nineteen

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Speaker 1: under par. But what do you make of the AT

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Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am.

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Speaker 2: That's a lot. It's my home it's my home tournament.

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Speaker 2: It's the first tournament that I went to as a kid.

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Speaker 2: My dad brought me when I was about to turn thirteen,

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Speaker 2: and I got to meet Phil Mickelson, and VJ. Singh.

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Speaker 2: Tiger Woods had knee surgery that year, so we didn't

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Speaker 2: get to see him, but we walked Spyglass, we walked

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach, we walked Poppy Hills back when that was

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Speaker 2: the third course in the rotation. Then for a while

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Speaker 2: it was Monterey Peninsula Country Club, which was a terrible idea.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad it's back to just Spyglass and Pebble Beach.

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Speaker 2: Spy Glass when the wind is up, is a devilish

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Speaker 2: golf course, extremely difficult, makes Pebble Beach look like a

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Speaker 2: cake walk if the wind is up. And I will

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Speaker 2: tell you that the forecast as we're getting closer to

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Speaker 2: Thursday is looking more windy and more wet, at least

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Speaker 2: for the weekend. So I am expecting more difficult conditions

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Speaker 2: wind wise, but also softer conditions course wise. So I

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Speaker 2: think you'll still be in that fifteen to twenty two

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Speaker 2: under par range because it's still short golf courses. The

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Speaker 2: greens are very tough. Poema is extremely difficult, especially later

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Speaker 2: in the day if the sunshine comes out, then you

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Speaker 2: get those weird bumps on the greens. Good luck making anything.

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Speaker 2: It's a lot of elevation changes. Walking the course, the

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Speaker 2: forest and spy Glass Hill is it makes you feel

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Speaker 2: like you're basically in a phone booth. It's a really

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Speaker 2: tight golf course, extremely difficult if you're not hitting your

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Speaker 2: shots where you're intending. I think this tournament's going to

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Speaker 2: be won by somebody who just completely is locked in

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Speaker 2: ball striking wise accurate. It's gonna take accuracy. It's going

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Speaker 2: to take a command of your distance control because even

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Speaker 2: if you're hitting a gap wedge or a sand wedge

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Speaker 2: into these greens, you have to be really precise because

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Speaker 2: the landing areas are even smaller than those tiny greens.

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Speaker 2: If you're on the wrong side of the green complex

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Speaker 2: that you want to be in, you're short sighted, and

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Speaker 2: being short sighted at Pebble Beach and Spyglasses certain death.

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Speaker 2: It's a tricky golf course where you can go low,

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Speaker 2: but if you're not on your game, you can put

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Speaker 2: up a huge number and luckily there's no cut. But

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Speaker 2: it's gonna take a special four days to win this tournament.

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Speaker 2: This is the tournament that's the nearest and dearest to

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Speaker 2: my heart, and I love analyzing this tournament because it's

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Speaker 2: been since what the last twenty years, I've been basically

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Speaker 2: following this tournament more than any other.

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Speaker 1: Nice. We will get to the odds for the AT

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Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: but first.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the odds for the AT and T

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach Proram. Scottie Scheffler checks in at plus two ninety.

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Speaker 1: Rory McElroy makes his twenty twenty six PGA Tour debut.

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Speaker 1: He's thirteen to one. Xander Schoffley and the red hot

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Speaker 1: Seawoo Kim are twenty five to one. Cameron Young and

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Speaker 1: Victor Hobland are twenty seven to one. Tommy Fleetwood and

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Speaker 1: Justin Rose are twenty eight to one. Matverick McNeely coming

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Speaker 1: off a pretty good week at the Phoenix Open, He's

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Speaker 1: twenty nine to one. Chris godder Up and Russell Henley

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Speaker 1: are thirty to one. Ben Griffin is thirty one to one,

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Speaker 1: Hideki Matsiama is thirty two to one, and Matt Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: is thirty four to one. Who do you like among

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Speaker 1: the players with the shortest odds?

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Speaker 3: Bow?

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Speaker 2: So everybody likes Scotty here. I don't and a lot

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Speaker 2: of people think, oh, that Rory's victory last year was

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Speaker 2: a fluke because he's typically not the strongest wedge player.

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Speaker 2: I think he's gonna win again. Not only is this

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Speaker 2: just his debut on the PGA Tour this year, but

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Speaker 2: he already looked really good in Dubai a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. This is Rory's tournament to win. He bullied

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Speaker 2: golf this golf course is last year, completely took them down,

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Speaker 2: torched the place, left it ransacked. Rory mcelroy' is the

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Speaker 2: type of player who can bully a golf course like

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach because even if he's hitting an iron off

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Speaker 2: the tee, he's flipping a wedge in there. And I

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Speaker 2: think if if Rory stays on the game that he's

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Speaker 2: been on, there's even Scotty Scheffler doesn't have the form

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Speaker 2: from what we saw last week to beat Rory on

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Speaker 2: this on these two golf courses. So Rory at thirteen

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Speaker 2: to one is a steal. I would probably bet him

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Speaker 2: as short as nine to one. But since I'm getting

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Speaker 2: thirteen to one in most places, I like that a lot.

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Speaker 2: I really like it. I'm gonna full laterate top outright,

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Speaker 2: top five, top ten, everything Rory. It's gonna be pretty

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Speaker 2: aggressive too, because I think he will win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the wedge thing scares me a little. I'm not

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Speaker 1: gonna lie, butll we just plays such a key to

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Speaker 1: this event. Guys are hitting a lot of shots from

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Speaker 1: that one hundred yard to one hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 1: yard range. But to your point, I mean, Rory saw

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Speaker 1: a lot of that last year and was fine. And

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Speaker 1: if we get weather, if we do get rain and wind,

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Speaker 1: I mean I like to think Irish that certainly favors him,

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Speaker 1: and Scotty has been playing some great golf, but He's

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Speaker 1: been doing it on you know, sunny windless horses at

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Speaker 1: the American Express and in Phoenix, and this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a different, a difference out of circumstances and

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Speaker 1: all agether.

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Speaker 2: Honestly, Scotty's weakness this season so far has been his

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Speaker 2: approach game, which ironically he's usually the best in the

258
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Speaker 2: world in that category. But he's been kind of overcoming

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Speaker 2: his approach game with the short game these days. And

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Speaker 2: it might be enough to win a lot of tournaments.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's enough to win here. So we're

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Speaker 2: not even doing Scotty Live this week. We're just saying

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Speaker 2: no Scotty, no thank you. We'll take our Rory McElroy

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Speaker 2: odds in double digits and run away.

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Speaker 1: What about the red hot Seawu Cambo. He has played

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Speaker 1: each of the first four PGA Tour events of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six. He's finished eleventh, sixth, second, and third. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: his Pebble Beach track record is kind of a mixed bag,

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Speaker 1: but he has finished top fifteen of Pebble Beach each

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Speaker 1: of the last two years, and he had a fourth

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Speaker 1: place finish at this event in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: He's he's the type of golfer that gives me the

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Speaker 2: willies on a tournament like this because he's so aggressive,

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Speaker 2: and the way you play and dominated Pebble Beach is

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Speaker 2: not with aggression. It's attacked and restraint, and I don't

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Speaker 2: think see what Kim has that in his game. So yes,

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Speaker 2: he might finish top twenty, top ten, but I don't

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Speaker 2: think he can win with what he's coming in with.

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Speaker 2: He's very hot, but those again, on those windless golf

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Speaker 2: courses where you can take risks and make shots and

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Speaker 2: recover from shots. If you miss your spots at Pebble

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Speaker 2: Beach or Spyglass, you're not gonna be making par. You're

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Speaker 2: not gonna be making bogie. You're gonna be making a

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Speaker 2: big number. And see what Kim might be sunk by

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Speaker 2: mistakes down the stretch where he gets too aggressive, because

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach will take that from you.

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Speaker 1: Justin Rose is looking for his second win on the

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Speaker 1: California Swing and the PGA Tour. He won the Farmers

289
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Speaker 1: Insurance Open at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. He's been

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Speaker 1: terrific at Pebble Beach in recent years. He won here

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three. He was eleventh and twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: and he was third last year. Any interest in him?

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Speaker 2: I like him, I don't love him at the line

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Speaker 2: he's at. I think it's a little too short, and

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Speaker 2: I think that the next guy you're about to ask

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Speaker 2: me about is also too short, even though he's the

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Speaker 2: hometown favorite.

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Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely. Yeah, he's from the Bay Area, played his

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Speaker 1: college golf at Stanford. Loves this course. I believe he

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Speaker 1: said it's his favorite tour venue.

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Speaker 2: He's from Pebble Beach, California.

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Speaker 1: Is he from Pebble Beach? All right? So he's finished

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Speaker 1: outside the top thirty here in each of his last

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Speaker 1: four trips, but he did finish fifth at Pebble in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty second in twenty twenty one. I think AT

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Speaker 1: and T is one of Maverick mcneely's sponsors and coming

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Speaker 1: off a pretty good week at Phoenix.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the player. I like the spot. I

309
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Speaker 2: hate the number. I'm not finding him any shorter than

310
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Speaker 2: thirty to one or Andandy longer than thirty to one,

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Speaker 2: and that's unacceptable. I think that he's good, but I'm

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Speaker 2: not on him because he has shown very poor form here.

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Speaker 2: The last couple of years. Despite playing well in his

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Speaker 2: overall seasons, he's been getting better. He's even cracked the

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Speaker 2: top ten in the official World Golf rankings. Briefly, it

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Speaker 2: was not based on what he did at Pebble Beach

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Speaker 2: last couple of years. Let's just say that I think

318
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Speaker 2: that the hometown advantage is there, but not enough for

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Speaker 2: me to bet him unless he slips past thirty to one.

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Speaker 1: What about Chris got Her Up. He's never played this event,

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Speaker 1: but he does have two wins under his belt already.

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Speaker 1: It's any value at thirty to one on got Her Up.

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Speaker 2: That's about right where he should be. I think he's

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Speaker 2: still a risk reward play, but he's got the upside

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Speaker 2: to win anywhere. He's got the game to win anywhere.

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Speaker 2: This is a guy who's taking his game to a

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Speaker 2: different level this season. We've already seen it with the

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Speaker 2: two wins. I wouldn't surprise me at all if he

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Speaker 2: won the tournament again. But it's his first look at

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Speaker 2: Pebble Beach. And sometimes this course isn't entirely predictive on

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Speaker 2: who does well here. It's not the most repetitive course

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Speaker 2: on like you're going for your horses for courses. But

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Speaker 2: with the way he's been showing up with his short

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Speaker 2: game based on last year and the year before, where

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Speaker 2: he's just gotten at everything, I think that he could

336
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Speaker 2: be a guy who styles his play after Rory McIlroy

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Speaker 2: and can take this down. Do I expect him to?

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Speaker 2: I think it's it's a fun bet. I like Chris

339
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Speaker 2: godder Up, I don't know that he can win in

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Speaker 2: his first trip here, not being familiar with all the

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Speaker 2: little tricks of the trade that pebble Beach has.

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Speaker 1: I agree it's a tough course to make your maiden

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Speaker 1: voyage and win even with the here that he is on.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at more of the odds. Michael Thorbe,

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Speaker 1: Bjornsen is thirty six to one, Patrick can't Ley, Ludwig

346
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Speaker 1: Oberg and Jake Knapp are thirty eight to one. Jj

347
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 1: Spon is forty five to one. Jason Day is forty

348
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 1: six to one. Harris English checks in at fifty four

349
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Speaker 1: to one, Sam Burns fifty six to one, Pearson Cootie

350
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Speaker 1: fifty seven to one, Ryan Gerard sixty one to one.

351
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Speaker 1: Sepstraca and Ricky Follower are sixty three to one. Shane

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Speaker 1: Lowry and minou Lee are sixty four to one, and

353
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 1: Daniel Berger and Colin Morikawa are sixty five to one.

354
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Speaker 1: Do you like anyone from this group?

355
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Speaker 2: Bo This group is loaded. I like thorpe Jornsen. I

356
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Speaker 2: think he's a little short because he's been playing. He's

357
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 2: a good resort golfer, like we saw him at Scottsdale

358
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,719
Speaker 2: do really well. He's the kind of guy that can

359
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,880
Speaker 2: light it up in good scoring conditions, which might very

360
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Speaker 2: well happen here this week with a little bit of

361
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Speaker 2: rain in the forecast. But Patrick Can'tley is the guy

362
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Speaker 2: I'm looking at thirty eight to one. Can't Lee is

363
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Speaker 2: red hot to start the season. He hasn't really shown

364
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Speaker 2: it in the results, like he's finished top ten a

365
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Speaker 2: couple times. But Patrick Can'tley at Pebble Beach, he's the

366
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 2: best putter there is on Poeanna Greens. He knows Pebble

367
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Speaker 2: Beach like the back of his hand. As a California guy,

368
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 2: Patrick Cantley is the one I focus on because he's

369
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 2: just a Pebble Beach lifer. He's the guy that I

370
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 2: want this week. Thirty eight to one is a great

371
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,360
Speaker 2: value for him, especially with the results we've gotten from

372
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Speaker 2: him over the years at Pebble Beach. I also love

373
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Speaker 2: Shane Lowry. I was shocked to see him at sixty

374
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Speaker 2: four to one because he has great history here. He's

375
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Speaker 2: an Irish golfer. It goes without saying that the climate

376
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 2: along the northern California coast and the climate of Ireland

377
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 2: not that much different. So if you get a little

378
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Speaker 2: bit of weather like we're expecting this week, I think

379
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Speaker 2: Shane Lowry could be a very sneaky play with an

380
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:18,120
Speaker 2: incredible value of sixty four to one. And along those

381
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Speaker 2: same lines, we saw Colin Moricawa kind of struggle a

382
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, but that wasn't a golf course

383
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: that fits his game like Pebble Beach does. Pebble Beach

384
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 2: rewards players who played the game like Colin Marcawa. And

385
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Speaker 2: remember the one major he won was in San Francisco

386
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: at the Olympic Club, very similar climate, very similar. He

387
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,919
Speaker 2: played golf in Northern California and college at cal This

388
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 2: is the kind of game where the Pebble Beach pro

389
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 2: am is kind of your salvo into not necessarily the

390
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 2: end of the California Swing, but the preparation for the

391
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 2: Florida Swing, where you get more of that target golf,

392
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Speaker 2: you get more of the strategic golf involved where you're

393
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Speaker 2: not just bombing gouge. You can't bomb in gouge Pebble Beach.

394
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,959
Speaker 2: It simply does not work. And this is Colin Workawa's wheelhouse,

395
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Speaker 2: and sixty five to one, that's insane value for a

396
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 2: guy who quite literally can dominate a tournament of this

397
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 2: caliber just by the way he plays. His style fits

398
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: this course perfectly, and.

399
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Speaker 1: I get why his odds are what they are. He's off.

400
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's started terribly so far.

401
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, miss missed the caught at the Sony fifty

402
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: sixth place last week in Phoenix. The short game just

403
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: looks like it's a mess right now. Body, I agree bo.

404
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 1: If he gets hot with the approach shots and starts

405
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: playing that pinpoint golf like he could make those seems silly.

406
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: He's as good as it gets at finding fairways too.

407
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 2: He's third in this field on that par four range

408
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 2: between three hundred and fifty and four hundred yards that

409
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: a ton of these holes are bert fifth and birdies

410
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: are better gained on short courses. He's lights out when

411
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 2: it comes to inside of one hundred and fifty yards

412
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Speaker 2: on approach. This is this is Colin work How's week

413
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 2: to show us that he can actually play in twenty

414
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 2: twenty six. We haven't seen it in a while, but

415
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 2: this is the week to show us Colin.

416
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm with you on can't lay. I

417
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: don't know if I like him outright. I love the

418
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 1: top five market with him. The long Beach Kid California

419
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 1: guy has finished eleventh or better and four of his

420
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Speaker 1: last five trips to Pebble Beach, including a third and

421
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and a fourth and twenty twenty two.

422
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Speaker 1: And by the way, bo I would imagine the slow

423
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Speaker 1: pace of a pro am is not going to bother

424
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Speaker 1: the ponderous Patrick cantlay all that he might.

425
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Speaker 2: He might grow some moss, but that's about it. Yeah.

426
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: And Shane Lowry's second here to Rory last year yep

427
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: and in pretty good form. Finished third in the Dubai

428
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 1: Invitational on the DP World Tour about a month ago.

429
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 1: And last year I think he was I want to

430
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: say he was inside the top ten statistically in those

431
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: one and twenty five yard approach shots. Yeah, last year

432
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: he was knocking those staff. Just two others to mention.

433
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: Over the last ten years, Jason Day has eight top

434
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: fifteens and four top fives at Pebble Beach. He is

435
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 1: a horse for the course, but he just you know,

436
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 1: hasn't been able to win here. And Daniel Berger has

437
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: not played this event since twenty twenty one, but he

438
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: did win here at Pebble Beach that year twenty twenty

439
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: one and was fifth in twenty twenty. Burger finished sixteenth

440
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 1: last week in Phoenix, so he comes in pretty good form.

441
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 1: Before we get to our favorite long shots, I just

442
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: want to tell you guys how much I appreciate the

443
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445
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446
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: is that she's mostly a vegetarian. She'll occasionally eat meat.

447
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Speaker 1: She'll even indulge in a steak. She had one when

448
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Speaker 1: our dad give us some Omaha steaks for Christmas. I'm

449
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Speaker 1: a full fledged carnivore, though, and I like to eat

450
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Speaker 1: a high quality protein on the regular. The great thing

451
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Speaker 1: about Omaha steaks is that I can get a box

452
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Speaker 1: of individually portioned proteins, and I know the quality is

453
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Speaker 1: going to be top shelf. Can make a nice medium

454
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Speaker 1: rare filet mignon for myself, and it's so convenience. I've

455
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Speaker 1: got my box of Omaha Steaks on hand. I don't

456
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Speaker 1: single steak for myself, which would be silly. Omaha Steaks

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Speaker 1: who do you see? Is the compelling long shots? At

469
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: the at and T Pebble Beach pro am guys with

470
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: odds of seventy to one or longer.

471
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: I have three guys and two are Canadians. Oh, I

472
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 2: don't know what the odds are that. But Nick Taylor

473
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 2: at eighty four to one, he's just a great overall player.

474
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 2: This is the kind of course where we saw when

475
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 2: he won the Canadian Open. Very similar type course to

476
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 2: this one shorter under seven thousand yards really rewards the

477
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 2: short wedge game on approach accuracy off the tee, and

478
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: he's a grinder, so if the weather gets tough, I've

479
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: seen Nick Taylor just buckle down and make pars where

480
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: he can and make birdies where they're present. This is

481
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 2: a great value for him at eighty four to one.

482
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 2: The next one is also Canadian, and other than not

483
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: being able to have a short game to speak of,

484
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 2: Corey Connors has done a lot of great things at

485
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: Pebble Beach. Corey Connor's great ball striker off the tee,

486
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 2: very very good approach game and makes a ton of birdies.

487
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: Can he put on poa No, but he can't put

488
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: on any surface, so I'm not really worried about it.

489
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,719
Speaker 2: And my model for all surfaces, and he was seventy seventh,

490
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: which is third worst in this field. And then I

491
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 2: ran it for POA and he was sixty seventh, so

492
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 2: it seems to be his strongest surface. I'll take it

493
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 2: because Corey Connor's overall great pick as far as ball striking,

494
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: birdie making. If you just don't look at his scrambling

495
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 2: or short game numbers, it looks great. It's all green,

496
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: and that's kind of beaked into the price at ninety

497
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 2: four to one. And finally, a guy who I never

498
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 2: bet because I can't stand watching him play. I don't

499
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: like anything about him watching him play golf, It's it's

500
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 2: incredibly dull. It makes Patrick can't Lay look like a

501
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: bad bunny at the super Bowl where Brian Harmon two

502
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty to one. But this is a course

503
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 2: that's fitting his game. He came in number one on

504
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: my model. That's impossible to ignore. He's top ten and

505
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: pretty much every category when when I filter for shorter

506
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: courses POA Greens, number one of my model gets a bet.

507
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: So even at two hundred eighty to one, outright, I'll

508
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 2: throw a couple bucks on him. Top twenty bed is

509
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: about nine to one. That's a pretty good value as well.

510
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: Brian Harmon, I guess you repped this week, dude.

511
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, normally, I'm the Brian Harmon guy

512
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: and you're holding your nose while I'm here touting and

513
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: but the shoes in the other foot this week.

514
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 2: But I saw number one of my model and I

515
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: let out a laugh. It was a chort, It was

516
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 2: a chortal, it was It was incredulous laughter that that

517
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: was the guy who came out at number one over

518
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: Rory Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantley and Scotti Scheffler in my model.

519
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 2: So yes, color me surprised here he is.

520
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have taken a look at Taylor

521
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: Pendrith at seventy two to one. Another Canadian, another Canadian.

522
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: He's finished top ten at Pebble Beach each of the

523
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: last two years, although Pendrith has missed two straight cuts

524
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: after finishing sixth that the Sony Open Jordan Speith seventy

525
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: six to one. He did win here back in twenty

526
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: seventeen and had top three finishes here in twenty twenty

527
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 1: one and twenty twenty two. But we know the form

528
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: has not been great. Here are the two with even

529
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: longer odds. I'm kind of interested in Jacob Bridgeman one

530
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty to one, finished fourth at the Sony

531
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: Top twenty at the American Express and the Phoenix Open.

532
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: Outstanding putter, and his putter has been red hot this year.

533
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 1: So Jacob Bridgman kind of interests me. And then Tom

534
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: Hogy is two hundred and seventy to one bow a

535
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: guy who won here in twenty twenty two and has

536
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 1: three top fifteens at Pebble Beach in his last five appearances.

537
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 1: Hogy seems to love Pebble Beach and he is terrific

538
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: with his irons. I feel like this course just sets

539
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: up really well for him. Two hundred and seventy to one, Yeah,

540
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: I'm interested.

541
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, he came in tenth of my model, so absolutely good.

542
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: Tom Hogy's good for a top ten or top twenty

543
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 2: bet pretty much every year at Pebble Beach, and I

544
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: think at the Cognizant in Houston. Those are those are

545
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 2: the two that I ared a Cognizant. It's in Northern Florida, Florida.

546
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 2: Those yeah, those two tournaments. I really like Tom Hovey

547
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: because anytime you can flip a short iron. Tom Hogy

548
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: is your guy, but I like Connor's absolutely no short

549
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: game to speak of.

550
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: Exactly, Bo tell people about our presenting sponsor.

551
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583
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Speaker 2: Pat give me your hard Rock Bet of the w.

584
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 1: My hard Rock Bet of the Week, bo is Maverick

585
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: McNeely at thirty to one to win outright at hard

586
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: Rock Beat Illinois. I am I know you don't love

587
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: the value. I understand it, but I am falling. I'm

588
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: a hook line and snicker on the hometown boy narrative

589
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: with Maverick McNeely. I think he's going to make a

590
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: run this week. What about your hard rock Better the Week?

591
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: Bow? My hard rock better of the week is Rory

592
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: McElroy thirteen to one outright. That's solid, It's beautiful. It's

593
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 2: double digits for Rory McElroy. Guys defending champion of the

594
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 2: AT and T Pebble Beach Program. How much easier does

595
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 2: it get to bet on a guy than that? And

596
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: did you know that Maverick McNeely is a licensed pilot?

597
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: I did not know that.

598
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, he flies his own private planeto a lot of events.

599
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: Wow. Interesting. What does the rest of your early betting

600
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: card look like?

601
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: So I do have Rory full ladder outright? Top five,

602
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 2: Top ten, Patrick Cantley thirty eight to one, Shane Lowry

603
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 2: sixty four to one, Colin Moricaba sixty five to one,

604
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: Nick Taylor eighty four to one, Corey Connors ninety four

605
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: to one, And I guess I'll do it. Brian Harmon

606
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 2: of the University of Georgia go dogs two hundred and

607
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,959
Speaker 2: eighty to one. Top twenty is at plus nine hundred.

608
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: You could do that.

609
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: So in addition to taking Maverick McNeely, I have also

610
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: got Daniel Berger at sixty five to one. I've got

611
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: Shane Lowry at sixty one to one to win and

612
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: at plus eight ninety for a top five. I'm also

613
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: betting Patrick Cantlay for a top five at plus five

614
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: seventy five. I just don't have the guts to bet

615
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: him to win because I don't think he's a winner.

616
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: And finally, I'm throwing a couple bucks on Tom Hogy

617
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: to win outright at two hundred and seventy to one,

618
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: and I'm taking him for a top ten at juicy

619
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: eleven to one odds now for a one and done competition.

620
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: I had Hideki Matsuyama last week, almost got to win

621
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: out of it, but had to settle for second place money,

622
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 1: which was one million, forty six thousand and four one

623
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: hundred dollars bo head Saheith Tagala. He had a solid week,

624
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: finished tied for eighteenth, earned one hundred and twenty two,

625
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 1: seven hundred and twenty dollars. Bo, you have the honors

626
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: at Pebble Beach. Who are you taking?

627
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get a little bit of flack for this

628
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 2: because it's risky, but Colin Morikawa is my guy this.

629
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 1: Week, Colin Morikawa and Boa, I am all in shoving

630
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: my chips into the pot like Teddy kgb Maverick McNeely.

631
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 2: The men is money in the one.

632
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: That is all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast.

633
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: We'll be back next week to preview the Genesis Invitational

634
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: at one of my favorite golf courses, Riviera Country Club

635
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles. Until then, so long everyone.

636
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

637
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

638
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

639
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 3: or Spotify.

640
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Speaker 1: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

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Speaker 1: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros