Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, What did we invent over twenty years ago?
Speaker 2: What we tried to event working off of all sorts
Speaker 2: of good analogs. You wouldn't believe the number of people
Speaker 2: that influenced this was the quality of the conversation. And
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean just get a lot of fancy muckety
Speaker 2: MUCKs and have them on twenty four to seven. It
Speaker 2: means a set of people. Lori Calvicina was fabulous today
Speaker 2: on a small stock effect and the courage to be
Speaker 2: in the markets, said some really good fixed income people.
Speaker 2: The other day, Ian Lincoln would be moo capital markets
Speaker 2: and on and on. But when it's something in macroeconomics
Speaker 2: or international economics, you have to go to the source.
Speaker 2: The source in America is at Dartmouth College. Douglas Irwin
Speaker 2: thirty years ago, as incredibly young at the time, wrote
Speaker 2: a book called Against the Tide, which was absolutely definitive
Speaker 2: about the history of free trade. And I went right
Speaker 2: to him on the first question, President Trump's fixation on
Speaker 2: a gilded age, his fixation on William McKinley.
Speaker 3: Well, I'd say the myth that the US economy grew
Speaker 3: in the late nineteenth century when we became an industrial
Speaker 3: power because of the tariff There's a classic case of
Speaker 3: correlation not being causation. So there are a lot of
Speaker 3: reasons why the US became an industrial power. After the
Speaker 3: Civil War up until World War One, we had massive immigration,
Speaker 3: not many people in come administration and mentioned that we
Speaker 3: were the recipient of major capital inflows from Britain and
Speaker 3: other countries. We were adopting technology from then the technological
Speaker 3: leader of Britain. We are pretty much open to the
Speaker 3: world except in trade. So we did have high tariffs,
Speaker 3: but they did promote manufacturing a bit. But if you
Speaker 3: look where the productivity growth was, it was in the
Speaker 3: service sector. It was railroads and then later electrification and telecommunications.
Speaker 3: It wasn't just manufacturing and becoming rich because of the
Speaker 3: tariff walls.
Speaker 2: I will editorialize here with Doug Irwin of Dartmouth that
Speaker 2: the set of reasons there of McKinley, and before McKinley,
Speaker 2: in the time of Blaine and grew, I call him
Speaker 2: President Grover Cleveland Alexander. President Grover Cleveland Alexander was a
Speaker 2: picture named after Groover Cleveland. It's a side story But
Speaker 2: the answer here is the capital inflow from the United
Speaker 2: Kingdom was extraordinary. Alan Nevins nails this, the great historian
Speaker 2: of Grover Cleveland. The gift that America got not even
Speaker 2: post Civil War, but eighteen after the Panic of eighteen
Speaker 2: seventy two, eighteen eighty onwards. The wall of money that
Speaker 2: came into America from the United Kingdom, to me is
Speaker 2: the great catalyst to our technological progress in the productivity
Speaker 2: that Professor Irwin talks about over the arch of Megdan
Speaker 2: de size long century, as he would call it. Another
Speaker 2: expert that we talked to today was god A Macunda
Speaker 2: of Yale University. What a spirited discussion here. He was
Speaker 2: just flat out heated Macunda of Yale on tariffs.
Speaker 1: If they don't realize it now, they will soon. The
Speaker 1: United States government has been uniquely stable for a couple
Speaker 1: of centuries, just basically longer than any other country in
Speaker 1: the world, and American business has been the extraordinary beneficiary
Speaker 1: of that. If that goes away, it will have consequences
Speaker 1: in ways that we cannot predict, but that are gargantuan.
Speaker 1: I'll just say as a general rule, it's when the
Speaker 1: things that you so deeply believe about the world that
Speaker 1: you don't even think about them turn out not to
Speaker 1: be true, that you have the biggest impact. And here
Speaker 1: is one where the basic underlying principle of everything in
Speaker 1: global economics and everything in global foreign policy has been
Speaker 1: the US government kind of knows what it's doing. That
Speaker 1: assumption is breaking while we speak.
Speaker 2: Got a mccunda. I'm sure we'll speak to him here
Speaker 2: in the coming weeks. Is well. I really can't say
Speaker 2: enough about the effort this weekend on this story. We
Speaker 2: go into midnight tonight, I feel like Cinderellic and midnight
Speaker 2: things are going to change with the tariff. Alex Steele
Speaker 2: was actually brilliant when we were off Mike today about
Speaker 2: really can we get to midnight. Maybe something will happen
Speaker 2: today to adjust the tariff story for tomorrow. On your
Speaker 2: commute across the nation, Apple Carplate, Android Auto in Philadelphia,
Speaker 2: Sirius XM Channel one twenty one. In Kansas City. I
Speaker 2: don't know what they do in Kansas City. Can you
Speaker 2: tell I'm rooting for the Eagles? I think I think so.
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