1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 2: Single best idea, What did we invent over twenty years ago? 3 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,319 Speaker 2: What we tried to event working off of all sorts 4 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 2: of good analogs. You wouldn't believe the number of people 5 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 2: that influenced this was the quality of the conversation. And 6 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: it doesn't mean just get a lot of fancy muckety 7 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: MUCKs and have them on twenty four to seven. It 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 2: means a set of people. Lori Calvicina was fabulous today 9 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 2: on a small stock effect and the courage to be 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: in the markets, said some really good fixed income people. 11 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: The other day, Ian Lincoln would be moo capital markets 12 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 2: and on and on. But when it's something in macroeconomics 13 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: or international economics, you have to go to the source. 14 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: The source in America is at Dartmouth College. Douglas Irwin 15 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 2: thirty years ago, as incredibly young at the time, wrote 16 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: a book called Against the Tide, which was absolutely definitive 17 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 2: about the history of free trade. And I went right 18 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 2: to him on the first question, President Trump's fixation on 19 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: a gilded age, his fixation on William McKinley. 20 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 3: Well, I'd say the myth that the US economy grew 21 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: in the late nineteenth century when we became an industrial 22 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 3: power because of the tariff There's a classic case of 23 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 3: correlation not being causation. So there are a lot of 24 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 3: reasons why the US became an industrial power. After the 25 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 3: Civil War up until World War One, we had massive immigration, 26 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 3: not many people in come administration and mentioned that we 27 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 3: were the recipient of major capital inflows from Britain and 28 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 3: other countries. We were adopting technology from then the technological 29 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: leader of Britain. We are pretty much open to the 30 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 3: world except in trade. So we did have high tariffs, 31 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 3: but they did promote manufacturing a bit. But if you 32 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 3: look where the productivity growth was, it was in the 33 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 3: service sector. It was railroads and then later electrification and telecommunications. 34 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 3: It wasn't just manufacturing and becoming rich because of the 35 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 3: tariff walls. 36 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 2: I will editorialize here with Doug Irwin of Dartmouth that 37 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 2: the set of reasons there of McKinley, and before McKinley, 38 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 2: in the time of Blaine and grew, I call him 39 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: President Grover Cleveland Alexander. President Grover Cleveland Alexander was a 40 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: picture named after Groover Cleveland. It's a side story But 41 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: the answer here is the capital inflow from the United 42 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: Kingdom was extraordinary. Alan Nevins nails this, the great historian 43 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: of Grover Cleveland. The gift that America got not even 44 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 2: post Civil War, but eighteen after the Panic of eighteen 45 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: seventy two, eighteen eighty onwards. The wall of money that 46 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 2: came into America from the United Kingdom, to me is 47 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 2: the great catalyst to our technological progress in the productivity 48 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: that Professor Irwin talks about over the arch of Megdan 49 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: de size long century, as he would call it. Another 50 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: expert that we talked to today was god A Macunda 51 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: of Yale University. What a spirited discussion here. He was 52 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: just flat out heated Macunda of Yale on tariffs. 53 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: If they don't realize it now, they will soon. The 54 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: United States government has been uniquely stable for a couple 55 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: of centuries, just basically longer than any other country in 56 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: the world, and American business has been the extraordinary beneficiary 57 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: of that. If that goes away, it will have consequences 58 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: in ways that we cannot predict, but that are gargantuan. 59 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: I'll just say as a general rule, it's when the 60 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: things that you so deeply believe about the world that 61 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: you don't even think about them turn out not to 62 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: be true, that you have the biggest impact. And here 63 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: is one where the basic underlying principle of everything in 64 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: global economics and everything in global foreign policy has been 65 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: the US government kind of knows what it's doing. That 66 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: assumption is breaking while we speak. 67 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: Got a mccunda. I'm sure we'll speak to him here 68 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,119 Speaker 2: in the coming weeks. Is well. I really can't say 69 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: enough about the effort this weekend on this story. We 70 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: go into midnight tonight, I feel like Cinderellic and midnight 71 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 2: things are going to change with the tariff. Alex Steele 72 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 2: was actually brilliant when we were off Mike today about 73 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: really can we get to midnight. Maybe something will happen 74 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 2: today to adjust the tariff story for tomorrow. On your 75 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: commute across the nation, Apple Carplate, Android Auto in Philadelphia, 76 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 2: Sirius XM Channel one twenty one. In Kansas City. I 77 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 2: don't know what they do in Kansas City. Can you 78 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 2: tell I'm rooting for the Eagles? I think I think so. 79 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 2: But what we know is on YouTube, you subscribe to 80 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast. It's building each and every day on YouTube podcast. 81 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: This is single best I do 82 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 3: Seven