WEBVTT - P&L: We Need to Deploy New Tech Faster to Prevent Cyber Attacks

0:00:04.760 --> 0:00:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.

0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:11.159
<v Speaker 1>Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we

0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:14.480
<v Speaker 1>bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for

0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:16.880
<v Speaker 1>you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:20.680
<v Speaker 1>the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes,

0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:31.960
<v Speaker 1>SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Cybersecurity, hacking, it's all

0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.800
<v Speaker 1>in the news, and it's all in everybody's corporate minds.

0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:38.120
<v Speaker 1>Worried about it. Gil Schwed doesn't worry. He has a solution.

0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:42.120
<v Speaker 1>He's the chief executive officer of Checkpoint and they can

0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.199
<v Speaker 1>be followed, of course on Twitter at Checkpoint sw and

0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:47.599
<v Speaker 1>Gilshwed joins us here in the studio. Thanks very much

0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.440
<v Speaker 1>for being here. You are described by many people as

0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:57.279
<v Speaker 1>the creator, the inventor of the modern firewall. First, well,

0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:00.080
<v Speaker 1>do you use that name, you know, in public at

0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:03.560
<v Speaker 1>any time? And if you do, maybe explain what is

0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:10.760
<v Speaker 1>this idea of stateful inspection? What is this? Okay, good afternoon.

0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:14.640
<v Speaker 1>The first day I did invent the technology stateful inspection,

0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:18.600
<v Speaker 1>and the technology which was which is quite all today,

0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:22.120
<v Speaker 1>but it's actually still relevant. Basically knows how to inspect

0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:25.480
<v Speaker 1>every traffic flow, analyze it at all levels and understand

0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.959
<v Speaker 1>what's going on, and based on the organizational policy, decide

0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.679
<v Speaker 1>whether it's something that should be accepted, which is allowed

0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:34.280
<v Speaker 1>or not allowed. Now, over the years there is a

0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.760
<v Speaker 1>twenty three years have passed since it was invented. The

0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:40.520
<v Speaker 1>technology ground grown and has many more layers that can

0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.920
<v Speaker 1>actually even today prevent and stop some of the most

0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:47.000
<v Speaker 1>sophisticated attacks. So it's grown well well beyond what I

0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.440
<v Speaker 1>could have dreamt of twenty five years ago when I

0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:54.160
<v Speaker 1>started started thinking about the idea. Can you tell us

0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.800
<v Speaker 1>about the sort of mechanics behind some of the more

0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:03.120
<v Speaker 1>sophisticated hack attacks. I mean, how people or how different

0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:09.200
<v Speaker 1>operatives try to break into different systems. So I think

0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:12.440
<v Speaker 1>many of the first very many, many types of attacks,

0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:16.000
<v Speaker 1>and they use every possible bug or issue that we

0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:18.000
<v Speaker 1>have in all the software that we are surrounded with.

0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.080
<v Speaker 1>But many of them starts today by sending you something

0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.760
<v Speaker 1>that looks like an innocent up fred your mobile phone

0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.080
<v Speaker 1>or an innocent file. You get a CV from a

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:31.200
<v Speaker 1>work candidate, vet up or let's c V includes something

0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:34.640
<v Speaker 1>that would break into your computer from their point on.

0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:37.680
<v Speaker 1>It basically owns your computer and can download off the

0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.560
<v Speaker 1>web or of its control servers, any kind of software

0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:43.639
<v Speaker 1>that can control the device. Is this a type of

0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:48.160
<v Speaker 1>attack that got into, for example, the JP Morgan system

0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.400
<v Speaker 1>when the JP Morgan was dealing with a hack, or

0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:54.720
<v Speaker 1>the type of hack that could have gotten into the

0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:56.680
<v Speaker 1>R and C and the deans the Democratic and then

0:02:56.680 --> 0:03:00.600
<v Speaker 1>the Republican national committees during the the election in this

0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:02.960
<v Speaker 1>is exactly the same kind of attacks. Again, we use

0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:07.200
<v Speaker 1>different problems, different bags, different vectors, but this is always

0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:09.639
<v Speaker 1>attacks sharevice in common and now we live into your

0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:13.640
<v Speaker 1>computer controlled by somebody in a different country or or

0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:15.800
<v Speaker 1>somebody that you don't know, and that person can use

0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:19.640
<v Speaker 1>your computer to just click on some people's websites, or

0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:22.240
<v Speaker 1>to destroy everything, or to get all your data, or

0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.400
<v Speaker 1>basically to do whatever they want. In your mind, are

0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:29.639
<v Speaker 1>there specific things that President elect Donald Trump can initiate

0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:33.280
<v Speaker 1>that would increase the level of cybersecurity for let's say,

0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:37.280
<v Speaker 1>US government offices as well as for the general public

0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:40.000
<v Speaker 1>in the United States. I think what can be done

0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.640
<v Speaker 1>is to really escalate the level of technology that the

0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:46.840
<v Speaker 1>government or the public use. It's less about regulation. I

0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:49.560
<v Speaker 1>think the issue of the government is something is sometimes

0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:53.320
<v Speaker 1>with the bureaucracy and the complexity and the sophistication makes

0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:55.920
<v Speaker 1>everything takes five years. So by now they start to

0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.520
<v Speaker 1>draft and new RFP on a new technology, by the

0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:02.080
<v Speaker 1>time it's completed, it's ten years have passed and the

0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.600
<v Speaker 1>technology is outdated. So I think there should be a

0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:08.800
<v Speaker 1>way to encourage the government agencies to deploy new technologies

0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:13.520
<v Speaker 1>fast in a in a less structured manner, even because

0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:16.560
<v Speaker 1>that's the only way to work fast. One big concern

0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.200
<v Speaker 1>is that right now the safety is not very good

0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:24.520
<v Speaker 1>to protect important US files from a cyber attack. UH,

0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.240
<v Speaker 1>do you have any insight into that? I mean, is

0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.160
<v Speaker 1>your sense that Corporate America and UH and and the

0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:34.120
<v Speaker 1>US government have been taking some serious and fast steps

0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.880
<v Speaker 1>towards cybersecurity. So I think, first America is relatively sophisticated

0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.080
<v Speaker 1>in technology that that we all use here more than

0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:43.480
<v Speaker 1>any other country in the world. But still I think

0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:47.359
<v Speaker 1>that you're absolutely right, we're not safe. Corporate America is

0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.360
<v Speaker 1>not a percent safe. And again today with lou if

0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:55.280
<v Speaker 1>you look at the most advanced security technologies, less than

0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.640
<v Speaker 1>five percent of companies use them company wide, so they

0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:02.360
<v Speaker 1>actually block every every incoming threat. So we are wide

0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:06.719
<v Speaker 1>open today. Let's talk about Checkpoint a company and what

0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:08.560
<v Speaker 1>it's doing. I was looking, you're going at a run

0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.800
<v Speaker 1>rate of about four hundred and twenties seven eight million

0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:15.480
<v Speaker 1>a quarter. What's the biggest seller right now for Checkpoint?

0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:18.359
<v Speaker 1>I think the fastest growing is what we call the

0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.240
<v Speaker 1>sund blessed technology, which is the most advanced. Is a

0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:25.920
<v Speaker 1>set of technologies that blocks the attacks of tomorrow. Whereas

0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:29.039
<v Speaker 1>under that umbrella overs at least twenty seven different technologies

0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:32.400
<v Speaker 1>that each one can block a different variant of attacks.

0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:35.599
<v Speaker 1>And again we're talking mainly about the unknown attacks. That's

0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.200
<v Speaker 1>the biggest challenge is how do we block something that

0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.479
<v Speaker 1>we didn't see before. Have you seen an incredible increase

0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:44.960
<v Speaker 1>in interest recently? Um, it's growing. The interest level is growing.

0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.640
<v Speaker 1>If you look at corporate buying, which is where we are,

0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.760
<v Speaker 1>unfortunately doesn't behave I mean, when you see a big attack,

0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:54.960
<v Speaker 1>it's not tomorrow morning, you get five hundred more enterprises

0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:58.760
<v Speaker 1>being interested. And that's something that can be changed because

0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.960
<v Speaker 1>I think some of the enterprises should be foster to act.

0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:05.920
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for being with us. Gil Schwed,

0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:09.799
<v Speaker 1>chief executive officer of Checkpoint, which is based in Tel Aviv.

0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.640
<v Speaker 1>Coming up today at Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan, a

0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:30.920
<v Speaker 1>meeting of the elite in technology. Chief executives of Amazon

0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:34.760
<v Speaker 1>dot Com as well as Alphabet, parent company of Google,

0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.920
<v Speaker 1>and IBM. They will all be speaking with President elect

0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:42.000
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump. We want to speak with Ching Kao, now,

0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.680
<v Speaker 1>our technology reporter for Bloomberg News, to find out what

0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.719
<v Speaker 1>this meeting is all about and how companies have perhaps

0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:52.640
<v Speaker 1>positioned themselves prior to the meeting in order to perhaps

0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.560
<v Speaker 1>make that conversation a little smoother. One of the executives

0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.920
<v Speaker 1>who is going to be at this meeting, Jenny Roman

0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.599
<v Speaker 1>of my BM, wrote a letter, an open letter to

0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump while he was running for uh president, I believe,

0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.600
<v Speaker 1>and I'm just curious, does that have the President elect?

0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.040
<v Speaker 1>After he won the election and he She got a

0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:19.880
<v Speaker 1>lot of pushback because apparently IBM employees didn't necessarily think

0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:22.800
<v Speaker 1>that she was speaking for the company's there any combination,

0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.640
<v Speaker 1>who didn't she on the Stephen Schwartzman council that is

0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.480
<v Speaker 1>going to advise the president elect. That's right. So she

0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.000
<v Speaker 1>did write the letter after he was elected. It laid

0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:34.680
<v Speaker 1>out some issues she thought were important, which included vocational education,

0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:39.360
<v Speaker 1>it included, um, things about bringing more tech to government,

0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:42.240
<v Speaker 1>her focus on healthcare of that kind of thing. Um,

0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.120
<v Speaker 1>she is on that council, and the council is basically

0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:50.040
<v Speaker 1>too bring private sector expertise to the table. She's basically

0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:52.880
<v Speaker 1>the only tech CEO on the panel as well, which

0:07:52.920 --> 0:07:55.360
<v Speaker 1>means I think she will focus a lot on bringing

0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:57.920
<v Speaker 1>more technology to the federal government, which of course helps

0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.000
<v Speaker 1>IBM if they get those contracts. Yeah, you can. Image

0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.800
<v Speaker 1>and Genie Remedia actually also announced last night that you

0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:07.119
<v Speaker 1>planned to hire as the CEO of IBM about people

0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.080
<v Speaker 1>in the US and invest one billion dollars of the

0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:13.080
<v Speaker 1>next four years. Was there any reason why she released

0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.800
<v Speaker 1>this other than as sort of a bargaining chip ahead

0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.000
<v Speaker 1>of the meeting with the tech leaders and President electro Well.

0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.560
<v Speaker 1>The company told me that these plans have been in

0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:26.280
<v Speaker 1>the works for months. Obviously the timing is pretty nice

0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:30.800
<v Speaker 1>for them, right, Um, But you know this, people, the

0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:33.560
<v Speaker 1>one billion dollars in education and retraining, I think have

0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:36.760
<v Speaker 1>been part of IBM's plans to try to attract the

0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:39.160
<v Speaker 1>workers that they need, which are folks who have the

0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.560
<v Speaker 1>skills or who want want to learn the skills, and

0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.080
<v Speaker 1>things like cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Thank you so much,

0:08:45.240 --> 0:09:02.319
<v Speaker 1>Jing Cow Bloomberg Technology reported solve the problem. Let's solve

0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:05.839
<v Speaker 1>the problem of increasing interest rates and people who hold

0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:09.920
<v Speaker 1>fixed income. Marvin Low, senior global market strategist for b

0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:12.360
<v Speaker 1>n Y Melon joins us. Now, Marvin, thank you very

0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:15.800
<v Speaker 1>much for being with us. So what is the prevailing

0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.000
<v Speaker 1>zeitgeist when it comes to owning bonds, holding onto what

0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.760
<v Speaker 1>you've got, and perhaps buying or selling UM. You know,

0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.760
<v Speaker 1>I think that we're in a period where we're all

0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.280
<v Speaker 1>trying to guess what the new administration UM is going

0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:32.080
<v Speaker 1>to pursue, what would winds up being UH their main

0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:35.160
<v Speaker 1>UM focus. And depending on how you come out with that,

0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:36.960
<v Speaker 1>and you know, we're all making these decisions with a

0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.160
<v Speaker 1>limited amount of information, UM, it's going to guide how

0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:42.840
<v Speaker 1>you should look at your portfolio. If you're in the

0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:47.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation camp. You know, certainly UM, the curve steepening type

0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:50.240
<v Speaker 1>of trend that we see that we've seen UM is

0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.400
<v Speaker 1>going to be a concern. And with rates having been

0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.280
<v Speaker 1>that low for that long, you see an outsized movement

0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.880
<v Speaker 1>in yields percentagewise. So, Marvin, is the global search for

0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:03.840
<v Speaker 1>yield over I mean, why is this divergence between US

0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.560
<v Speaker 1>and German yields in particular, and the divergence is the

0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.560
<v Speaker 1>widest on record. Why is this able to continue without

0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.680
<v Speaker 1>European investors flooding into the US to capture the higher yields. Well,

0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that we have to remember that

0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.559
<v Speaker 1>the central banks, even though there's a concern that they're

0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:24.200
<v Speaker 1>stepping away from UM the heavy policy tools that they've

0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.400
<v Speaker 1>been using, they're still actively in there. So in Europe

0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.400
<v Speaker 1>you are still very much influenced by UM n ECB

0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.360
<v Speaker 1>that while they're buying less per month, they're still buying,

0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:35.520
<v Speaker 1>and there's still our supply issues around there, and you

0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.160
<v Speaker 1>kind of see the changes in the shape of their curve,

0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:40.320
<v Speaker 1>but they're still buying. The set isn't buying. They haven't

0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:44.600
<v Speaker 1>been buying for for several years. And UM, we are

0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.520
<v Speaker 1>going down this kind of fiscal path that people have

0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:49.920
<v Speaker 1>been talking about for a while before everybody else is

0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.160
<v Speaker 1>and you know, whether or not that revives the economy,

0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.800
<v Speaker 1>whether or not that drives inflation. UM. Further, you know,

0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.679
<v Speaker 1>we can make an argument that it might or might

0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:00.520
<v Speaker 1>not get out of hand, but that it really is

0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the concern. But there is still that policy divergence. Marvin,

0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:07.720
<v Speaker 1>there are many institutions which have been buying bonds throughout

0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:11.720
<v Speaker 1>the last decade. If you are an institution and you

0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.920
<v Speaker 1>have bonds that are currently underwater in terms of capital appreciation,

0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.160
<v Speaker 1>should you sell them or should you hold them? You know,

0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:22.720
<v Speaker 1>every every every situation is is unique out there. I'm

0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:25.560
<v Speaker 1>in the camp that yields UM do have the potential

0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.800
<v Speaker 1>to continue to go higher UM I I do UM

0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:31.200
<v Speaker 1>remain concerned about the steeping of the curve, and you

0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.520
<v Speaker 1>know that trend continuing. So if you are a total

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:37.120
<v Speaker 1>return type of investor where you're not locking in that income,

0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.720
<v Speaker 1>I think you have to bring that into the equation.

0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:43.160
<v Speaker 1>The Bank of International Settlements had an interesting report in

0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.280
<v Speaker 1>the past five days or so where analysts who were

0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.679
<v Speaker 1>talking about why we haven't seen a more disorderly rotation

0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:51.839
<v Speaker 1>out of bonds. I mean a lot of been a

0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.839
<v Speaker 1>lot of concern leading up to this year has been

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.520
<v Speaker 1>focused on bond market liquidity and the ability for investors

0:11:57.520 --> 0:11:59.640
<v Speaker 1>to move around. It seems like that hasn't been a

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 1>huge problem this time around. The b i S was

0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.520
<v Speaker 1>attributing this to the fact that so many sticky investors.

0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 1>The Central bankers, the pensions own these bonds and aren't

0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.520
<v Speaker 1>going to sell them. Do you think that that's accurate

0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:13.280
<v Speaker 1>or do you think that that we still are at

0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 1>risk of a potential disorderly unwind of the market. You

0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.400
<v Speaker 1>know what, I'm not really concerned about disorderly unwind. I

0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 1>do think that those large pools of money UM are

0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:24.360
<v Speaker 1>out there. I think that it takes a while to

0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.360
<v Speaker 1>to change them. That doesn't mean that we UM I

0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:29.840
<v Speaker 1>won't see and may continue to see kind of these

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:33.240
<v Speaker 1>momentary flash crash type of of events which seemed to

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:35.240
<v Speaker 1>be more common rather than you know, once a decade

0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.960
<v Speaker 1>type of events. And I think that that's where the

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.280
<v Speaker 1>market is at this point. You know that those liquidity

0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 1>pools UM are ultimately a thin when you get that volatility,

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:45.960
<v Speaker 1>and you know, I think that we have to build

0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.080
<v Speaker 1>that into UM into our thought process. What about how

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:53.360
<v Speaker 1>yield debt? You know what UM so so I think

0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:58.079
<v Speaker 1>that's UM HI You'll still remains a decent asset class

0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>to think about. We talked about the talked about that

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.520
<v Speaker 1>the last time I was here. And if anything with

0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.439
<v Speaker 1>kind of this UM UH stabilizing growth profile and potential

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:11.680
<v Speaker 1>for UH some physical stimulus around. It pushes the credit story,

0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 1>um a little further out. You know, you might want

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:16.840
<v Speaker 1>to be short in that type of discussion, particularly you're short,

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:19.600
<v Speaker 1>uh particularly concerned with the curve. I mean, would you

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.120
<v Speaker 1>take any would you take the game? I mean, I'm

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:23.679
<v Speaker 1>just looking at, for example, the exchange traded fund j

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.320
<v Speaker 1>n K up fifteen and a quarter percent this year,

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 1>which is actually lagging behind the broader index. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.

0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:35.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, um, you'll you'll never get reprimanded for for

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.080
<v Speaker 1>taking some gains, particularly as we go into the beginning

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 1>of the year, and if we remember how this year began,

0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:43.920
<v Speaker 1>there was certainly volatility in it um as an asset class. However,

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 1>with the income that you might need to be feeling,

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 1>I still like that as a class. You know, Mortgages

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.439
<v Speaker 1>is some is an area that I'm really intrigued by

0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 1>right now. You have some investors saying, look, yields are rising.

0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.319
<v Speaker 1>That could be a problem for mortgages because people, it

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.560
<v Speaker 1>will make credit tighter. It'll make it, uh, it'll make

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:06.520
<v Speaker 1>it harder to refinance your home or less uh less

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 1>worthwhile the refinance. But I hear other people saying this

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 1>is a fantastic opportunity because you will not get that refinancing,

0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.520
<v Speaker 1>so people will actually be paying you what they say

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.559
<v Speaker 1>they would paying you for a longer period of time.

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Where do you weigh in on this? You know, I

0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 1>think that's true, and I think that there's so many

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.240
<v Speaker 1>different flavors of mortgages, with so many different types of

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.160
<v Speaker 1>structures out there that you know, you kind of need

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 1>the expertise to to get in there. But you know, certainly, um,

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>that refi risk goes down with with this rising yields,

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>which is positive right for for for mortgage it yes,

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 1>So is that something that you're bullish on right now? Um?

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:39.480
<v Speaker 1>You know what I think I'm I think I'm on

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 1>the sidelines with that at the moment. There's, um, you know,

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of influences that we're still trying to figure out.

0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, I'm just looking at mortgage rates right now,

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 1>and there are four four and a half percent four

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:55.120
<v Speaker 1>point four five percent for a thirty year fixed refi

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 1>in the New York metropolitan region and that is a

0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>big increase from when you saw those rate under four percent.

0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Uh Marvin one of the area automobile loans. We've been

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>tracking those as well, particularly in the in light of uh, well,

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 1>the link when payments have been increasing. Yeah, everyone's read

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>about up primato bubble, are you, um yeah, But from

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 1>from a global market, from a global micro perspective, um, absolutely,

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.880
<v Speaker 1>given how um long that that asset class and um

0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:26.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of that durable discussion has driven a lot of

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 1>the economic growth that we've seen. So yeah, I mean

0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 1>it's it's certainly flashing red. Thank you so much, Marvin

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 1>low It's always great to hear what you have to say.

0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.840
<v Speaker 1>Marvin Lowe, senior global market strategist at b n Y Melan,

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:44.240
<v Speaker 1>talking about what he sees in the year ahead of uncertainty.

0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast.

0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:15:56.560 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm him Fox, I'm

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 1>out there on Twitter at him Fox. I'm out there

0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.000
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast.

0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 1>You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.