1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Cybersecurity, hacking, it's all 7 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: in the news, and it's all in everybody's corporate minds. 8 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: Worried about it. Gil Schwed doesn't worry. He has a solution. 9 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: He's the chief executive officer of Checkpoint and they can 10 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: be followed, of course on Twitter at Checkpoint sw and 11 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 1: Gilshwed joins us here in the studio. Thanks very much 12 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: for being here. You are described by many people as 13 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:57,279 Speaker 1: the creator, the inventor of the modern firewall. First, well, 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: do you use that name, you know, in public at 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: any time? And if you do, maybe explain what is 16 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 1: this idea of stateful inspection? What is this? Okay, good afternoon. 17 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: The first day I did invent the technology stateful inspection, 18 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: and the technology which was which is quite all today, 19 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: but it's actually still relevant. Basically knows how to inspect 20 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: every traffic flow, analyze it at all levels and understand 21 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: what's going on, and based on the organizational policy, decide 22 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: whether it's something that should be accepted, which is allowed 23 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: or not allowed. Now, over the years there is a 24 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: twenty three years have passed since it was invented. The 25 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: technology ground grown and has many more layers that can 26 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: actually even today prevent and stop some of the most 27 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: sophisticated attacks. So it's grown well well beyond what I 28 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: could have dreamt of twenty five years ago when I 29 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: started started thinking about the idea. Can you tell us 30 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: about the sort of mechanics behind some of the more 31 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: sophisticated hack attacks. I mean, how people or how different 32 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: operatives try to break into different systems. So I think 33 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: many of the first very many, many types of attacks, 34 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: and they use every possible bug or issue that we 35 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: have in all the software that we are surrounded with. 36 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 1: But many of them starts today by sending you something 37 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: that looks like an innocent up fred your mobile phone 38 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: or an innocent file. You get a CV from a 39 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: work candidate, vet up or let's c V includes something 40 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: that would break into your computer from their point on. 41 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: It basically owns your computer and can download off the 42 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: web or of its control servers, any kind of software 43 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 1: that can control the device. Is this a type of 44 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: attack that got into, for example, the JP Morgan system 45 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: when the JP Morgan was dealing with a hack, or 46 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: the type of hack that could have gotten into the 47 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: R and C and the deans the Democratic and then 48 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: the Republican national committees during the the election in this 49 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: is exactly the same kind of attacks. Again, we use 50 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: different problems, different bags, different vectors, but this is always 51 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 1: attacks sharevice in common and now we live into your 52 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: computer controlled by somebody in a different country or or 53 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: somebody that you don't know, and that person can use 54 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: your computer to just click on some people's websites, or 55 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: to destroy everything, or to get all your data, or 56 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: basically to do whatever they want. In your mind, are 57 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: there specific things that President elect Donald Trump can initiate 58 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: that would increase the level of cybersecurity for let's say, 59 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: US government offices as well as for the general public 60 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: in the United States. I think what can be done 61 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: is to really escalate the level of technology that the 62 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: government or the public use. It's less about regulation. I 63 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: think the issue of the government is something is sometimes 64 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: with the bureaucracy and the complexity and the sophistication makes 65 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: everything takes five years. So by now they start to 66 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: draft and new RFP on a new technology, by the 67 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: time it's completed, it's ten years have passed and the 68 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: technology is outdated. So I think there should be a 69 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: way to encourage the government agencies to deploy new technologies 70 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: fast in a in a less structured manner, even because 71 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: that's the only way to work fast. One big concern 72 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: is that right now the safety is not very good 73 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: to protect important US files from a cyber attack. UH, 74 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: do you have any insight into that? I mean, is 75 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: your sense that Corporate America and UH and and the 76 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: US government have been taking some serious and fast steps 77 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: towards cybersecurity. So I think, first America is relatively sophisticated 78 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: in technology that that we all use here more than 79 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 1: any other country in the world. But still I think 80 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 1: that you're absolutely right, we're not safe. Corporate America is 81 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: not a percent safe. And again today with lou if 82 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: you look at the most advanced security technologies, less than 83 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: five percent of companies use them company wide, so they 84 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: actually block every every incoming threat. So we are wide 85 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: open today. Let's talk about Checkpoint a company and what 86 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: it's doing. I was looking, you're going at a run 87 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: rate of about four hundred and twenties seven eight million 88 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: a quarter. What's the biggest seller right now for Checkpoint? 89 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 1: I think the fastest growing is what we call the 90 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: sund blessed technology, which is the most advanced. Is a 91 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: set of technologies that blocks the attacks of tomorrow. Whereas 92 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: under that umbrella overs at least twenty seven different technologies 93 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: that each one can block a different variant of attacks. 94 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: And again we're talking mainly about the unknown attacks. That's 95 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: the biggest challenge is how do we block something that 96 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: we didn't see before. Have you seen an incredible increase 97 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: in interest recently? Um, it's growing. The interest level is growing. 98 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: If you look at corporate buying, which is where we are, 99 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: unfortunately doesn't behave I mean, when you see a big attack, 100 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: it's not tomorrow morning, you get five hundred more enterprises 101 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: being interested. And that's something that can be changed because 102 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: I think some of the enterprises should be foster to act. 103 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being with us. Gil Schwed, 104 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,799 Speaker 1: chief executive officer of Checkpoint, which is based in Tel Aviv. 105 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Coming up today at Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan, a 106 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: meeting of the elite in technology. Chief executives of Amazon 107 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: dot Com as well as Alphabet, parent company of Google, 108 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: and IBM. They will all be speaking with President elect 109 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. We want to speak with Ching Kao, now, 110 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: our technology reporter for Bloomberg News, to find out what 111 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: this meeting is all about and how companies have perhaps 112 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: positioned themselves prior to the meeting in order to perhaps 113 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: make that conversation a little smoother. One of the executives 114 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: who is going to be at this meeting, Jenny Roman 115 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 1: of my BM, wrote a letter, an open letter to 116 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: Donald Trump while he was running for uh president, I believe, 117 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: and I'm just curious, does that have the President elect? 118 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: After he won the election and he She got a 119 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: lot of pushback because apparently IBM employees didn't necessarily think 120 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: that she was speaking for the company's there any combination, 121 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: who didn't she on the Stephen Schwartzman council that is 122 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: going to advise the president elect. That's right. So she 123 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: did write the letter after he was elected. It laid 124 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: out some issues she thought were important, which included vocational education, 125 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: it included, um, things about bringing more tech to government, 126 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: her focus on healthcare of that kind of thing. Um, 127 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: she is on that council, and the council is basically 128 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: too bring private sector expertise to the table. She's basically 129 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: the only tech CEO on the panel as well, which 130 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: means I think she will focus a lot on bringing 131 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: more technology to the federal government, which of course helps 132 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: IBM if they get those contracts. Yeah, you can. Image 133 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: and Genie Remedia actually also announced last night that you 134 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,119 Speaker 1: planned to hire as the CEO of IBM about people 135 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: in the US and invest one billion dollars of the 136 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: next four years. Was there any reason why she released 137 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: this other than as sort of a bargaining chip ahead 138 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: of the meeting with the tech leaders and President electro Well. 139 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: The company told me that these plans have been in 140 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 1: the works for months. Obviously the timing is pretty nice 141 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: for them, right, Um, But you know this, people, the 142 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: one billion dollars in education and retraining, I think have 143 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: been part of IBM's plans to try to attract the 144 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: workers that they need, which are folks who have the 145 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: skills or who want want to learn the skills, and 146 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: things like cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Thank you so much, 147 00:08:45,240 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: Jing Cow Bloomberg Technology reported solve the problem. Let's solve 148 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,839 Speaker 1: the problem of increasing interest rates and people who hold 149 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: fixed income. Marvin Low, senior global market strategist for b 150 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: n Y Melon joins us. Now, Marvin, thank you very 151 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: much for being with us. So what is the prevailing 152 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: zeitgeist when it comes to owning bonds, holding onto what 153 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: you've got, and perhaps buying or selling UM. You know, 154 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: I think that we're in a period where we're all 155 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: trying to guess what the new administration UM is going 156 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 1: to pursue, what would winds up being UH their main 157 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: UM focus. And depending on how you come out with that, 158 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: and you know, we're all making these decisions with a 159 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: limited amount of information, UM, it's going to guide how 160 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 1: you should look at your portfolio. If you're in the 161 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: inflation camp. You know, certainly UM, the curve steepening type 162 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: of trend that we see that we've seen UM is 163 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: going to be a concern. And with rates having been 164 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: that low for that long, you see an outsized movement 165 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: in yields percentagewise. So, Marvin, is the global search for 166 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 1: yield over I mean, why is this divergence between US 167 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: and German yields in particular, and the divergence is the 168 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: widest on record. Why is this able to continue without 169 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: European investors flooding into the US to capture the higher yields. Well, 170 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: you know, I think that we have to remember that 171 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 1: the central banks, even though there's a concern that they're 172 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: stepping away from UM the heavy policy tools that they've 173 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: been using, they're still actively in there. So in Europe 174 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: you are still very much influenced by UM n ECB 175 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: that while they're buying less per month, they're still buying, 176 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 1: and there's still our supply issues around there, and you 177 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 1: kind of see the changes in the shape of their curve, 178 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: but they're still buying. The set isn't buying. They haven't 179 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: been buying for for several years. And UM, we are 180 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: going down this kind of fiscal path that people have 181 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: been talking about for a while before everybody else is 182 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: and you know, whether or not that revives the economy, 183 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: whether or not that drives inflation. UM. Further, you know, 184 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: we can make an argument that it might or might 185 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: not get out of hand, but that it really is 186 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: the concern. But there is still that policy divergence. Marvin, 187 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 1: there are many institutions which have been buying bonds throughout 188 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: the last decade. If you are an institution and you 189 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: have bonds that are currently underwater in terms of capital appreciation, 190 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: should you sell them or should you hold them? You know, 191 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 1: every every every situation is is unique out there. I'm 192 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: in the camp that yields UM do have the potential 193 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: to continue to go higher UM I I do UM 194 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: remain concerned about the steeping of the curve, and you 195 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: know that trend continuing. So if you are a total 196 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: return type of investor where you're not locking in that income, 197 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: I think you have to bring that into the equation. 198 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: The Bank of International Settlements had an interesting report in 199 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: the past five days or so where analysts who were 200 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: talking about why we haven't seen a more disorderly rotation 201 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 1: out of bonds. I mean a lot of been a 202 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,839 Speaker 1: lot of concern leading up to this year has been 203 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: focused on bond market liquidity and the ability for investors 204 00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: to move around. It seems like that hasn't been a 205 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: huge problem this time around. The b i S was 206 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: attributing this to the fact that so many sticky investors. 207 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: The Central bankers, the pensions own these bonds and aren't 208 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: going to sell them. Do you think that that's accurate 209 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: or do you think that that we still are at 210 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: risk of a potential disorderly unwind of the market. You 211 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: know what, I'm not really concerned about disorderly unwind. I 212 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: do think that those large pools of money UM are 213 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: out there. I think that it takes a while to 214 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: to change them. That doesn't mean that we UM I 215 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: won't see and may continue to see kind of these 216 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: momentary flash crash type of of events which seemed to 217 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: be more common rather than you know, once a decade 218 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: type of events. And I think that that's where the 219 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: market is at this point. You know that those liquidity 220 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: pools UM are ultimately a thin when you get that volatility, 221 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: and you know, I think that we have to build 222 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: that into UM into our thought process. What about how 223 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: yield debt? You know what UM so so I think 224 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 1: that's UM HI You'll still remains a decent asset class 225 00:12:58,080 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: to think about. We talked about the talked about that 226 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: the last time I was here. And if anything with 227 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 1: kind of this UM UH stabilizing growth profile and potential 228 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: for UH some physical stimulus around. It pushes the credit story, 229 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: um a little further out. You know, you might want 230 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: to be short in that type of discussion, particularly you're short, 231 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 1: uh particularly concerned with the curve. I mean, would you 232 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: take any would you take the game? I mean, I'm 233 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 1: just looking at, for example, the exchange traded fund j 234 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: n K up fifteen and a quarter percent this year, 235 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: which is actually lagging behind the broader index. Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. 236 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: I mean, um, you'll you'll never get reprimanded for for 237 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: taking some gains, particularly as we go into the beginning 238 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: of the year, and if we remember how this year began, 239 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: there was certainly volatility in it um as an asset class. However, 240 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: with the income that you might need to be feeling, 241 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: I still like that as a class. You know, Mortgages 242 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 1: is some is an area that I'm really intrigued by 243 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: right now. You have some investors saying, look, yields are rising. 244 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 1: That could be a problem for mortgages because people, it 245 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: will make credit tighter. It'll make it, uh, it'll make 246 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: it harder to refinance your home or less uh less 247 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: worthwhile the refinance. But I hear other people saying this 248 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: is a fantastic opportunity because you will not get that refinancing, 249 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: so people will actually be paying you what they say 250 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 1: they would paying you for a longer period of time. 251 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 1: Where do you weigh in on this? You know, I 252 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: think that's true, and I think that there's so many 253 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: different flavors of mortgages, with so many different types of 254 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: structures out there that you know, you kind of need 255 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: the expertise to to get in there. But you know, certainly, um, 256 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: that refi risk goes down with with this rising yields, 257 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: which is positive right for for for mortgage it yes, 258 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: So is that something that you're bullish on right now? Um? 259 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: You know what I think I'm I think I'm on 260 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: the sidelines with that at the moment. There's, um, you know, 261 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: a lot of influences that we're still trying to figure out. 262 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: You know, I'm just looking at mortgage rates right now, 263 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: and there are four four and a half percent four 264 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: point four five percent for a thirty year fixed refi 265 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: in the New York metropolitan region and that is a 266 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: big increase from when you saw those rate under four percent. 267 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: Uh Marvin one of the area automobile loans. We've been 268 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: tracking those as well, particularly in the in light of uh, well, 269 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: the link when payments have been increasing. Yeah, everyone's read 270 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: about up primato bubble, are you, um yeah, But from 271 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: from a global market, from a global micro perspective, um, absolutely, 272 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: given how um long that that asset class and um 273 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: kind of that durable discussion has driven a lot of 274 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: the economic growth that we've seen. So yeah, I mean 275 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: it's it's certainly flashing red. Thank you so much, Marvin 276 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: low It's always great to hear what you have to say. 277 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: Marvin Lowe, senior global market strategist at b n Y Melan, 278 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: talking about what he sees in the year ahead of uncertainty. 279 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 280 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, 281 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm him Fox, I'm 282 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: out there on Twitter at him Fox. I'm out there 283 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. 284 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.