WEBVTT - Bloomberg Intelligence: Black Friday Special 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:09.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:13.320 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:16.320 Eastern on Apple Car playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.680 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.280 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.680 Caroline Hid and Paul Sweeney, we are live here in 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:29.400 our Bloomberg Radio studio here in New York City, Bloomberg 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:33.440 HQ special edition of Bloomberg Markets here on this Black Friday. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:37.560 Renowned economist Nouriel Rabini is warning that Donald Trump's agenda 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:40.479 of tax cuts and tariffs is shaping up as a 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.879 double edge sword for the United States. The CEO of 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:47.440 Rbini Macro Associates told us more about the potential impacts 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.360 of Trump's plans on inflation and growth. 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.800 The economic policies of Trump may lead to high economic growth, 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:58.440 to being for business, keeping tax or it's a low 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:03.560 dilate economy, but unfortunately many of the other policies are 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.559 going to have an implication of hiring, inflation and lower 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.520 economic growth. The first thing he has already announced is 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:14.040 going to be tariff against Mexico, Canada and China. And 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.280 that's only the beginning, he said, we might have up 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:20.280 to twenty percent tarif on all our trade partners, up 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:23.520 to sixty percent against China. He wants to have massive 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:27.200 deportation of people. In the last few years, the increase 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:30.360 in migration has kept the lead on wage growth, has 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:34.160 increased the labor supply has increased economic growth. So definitely 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:37.720 mass deportation is t inflationary. He wants not only to 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.680 make all those tax cuts permanent, but you made other 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:44.200 promises and no taxes on tips, on overtime and so 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.840 security on income earn abroad, and so on and so on. 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.840 This estimate that these things we add to the deficit 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:55.320 by eight thrillion dollars. Too much demand inflationary. You might 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:58.600 want to weekend a dollar that's going to be inflationary. 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:02.960 You may interfere with the independence of the FED. Getting 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.280 out of the Paris Accord is going to make climate 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:08.400 change much worse, in create a food price and things 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:08.960 of that sort. 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:11.560 It's interesting, Nouriel, a lot of things you just said, 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.440 or what a bitcoiner would say as to why you 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:18.079 should buy bitcoin. There's now the Bitcoin etf there over 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.079 one hundred billion dollars. Clearly a big hit there's talk 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:24.240 that it could be a strategic reserve. You have gold 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:26.480 in the portfolio. Is there anything that could move you 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:31.600 to add bitcoin to your ETF to help accomplish some 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:32.639 of these goals. 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:35.720 You know, the bitcoin is highly volatile. It can go 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.679 up by ten percent one day and down ten to 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:42.720 fifteen percent another day. If you want to a stable 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:46.160 store of value, you will not put bitcoin into your portfolio. 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.520 The kind of acids we're actually thinking about are all 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:52.680 acid that do well when you have over growth and 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:57.000 you have higher inflation, whether it's tapes, shortened treasuries. Gold 0:02:57.080 --> 0:03:01.400 is a hedge against inflation. The basement did Alara shown geopolitics, 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:05.359 financial crises, some exposure to a commodities, they're going to 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.959 do well in a world of inflation, amid change, and 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:13.760 environmentally sustainable rids. So it's a diversified pulfolio of acids 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:17.080 that historical have done well in these types of tail risks. 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:21.400 I'm skeptical for a lot of reasons about cryptocurrency is 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:24.239 a bitcoin because they're not currencies. They're not the unit 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.560 of account, they're not the scale of means of payment, 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:28.880 they're not the stable store of value. And if you 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:31.959 want well preservation rather than high relativity. You want to 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.799 stay away from those types of assets. 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.760 That was Noria Rubini speaking with Blue Bag Intelligence analyst 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:39.720 Eric Beltunus. Meanwhile, we want to delve in a little 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.720 bit more to just these markets and the SP five hundred, 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:43.680 of course on a tear one of the best years 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:48.680 in history. Tho those investors have just been methodically shrugging 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.760 off geopolitical risk, of the geopolitical risk of central bank 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:55.560 temper concern and inflation perhaps running a little bit warmer 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.960 than had been anticipated. We've got to sort of try 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:01.600 and analyze therefore and market it's been for the money 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.600 makers out there, the banks in particular, it's not been pleasant. 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:06.760 If you've been trying to make these markets in flour 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:09.040 X and rates, they've not been having a great year 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.680 for traders there the hit by title margins by challenging 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:14.560 macroeconomic backdrops. We want to get to it with jess Menton, 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.320 who's been going through what is a great story of 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.120 how difficult it has been to trade the macro of late, 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:24.159 because there's been these shock moves that go against everyone. 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.640 It really is, and especially because Paul and I have 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.040 spoken so much over the last couple of years about 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:31.560 especially going into not even just this past year, but 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:33.960 in twenty twenty three, after we saw the loan, the 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.440 S and P five hundred and October of twenty twenty two. 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:38.520 There's still so much gloom and doom, and a lot 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:40.599 of it has been especially when you're coming out of 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:44.039 COVID and what the disruptions from the pandemic did, because 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.040 a lot of people were trading off of playbooks that 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.320 would have worked maybe prior to the pandemic, but when 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.680 you have a once in a century pandemic like that 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.360 and it up ends business activity, it made a lot 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.960 of the trades tougher to call because there are certain 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.599 strategies where you would use for instance, if this happened, 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.560 you'd buy this or only you know there would be 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.360 one hundred percent track records for certain thresholds where you 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:06.039 know you wouldn't see the S and P five hundred 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:07.840 hit another low. But there are a lot of things 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.039 that they had to like throw that playbook out, And 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:11.960 I'm sure paul In like your career with a lot 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.160 of things you saw, especially if you thought about like 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:16.120 the housing crisis or I know you were on the 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.840 floor a couple of weeks before the eighty seven crash, 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.520 things were very different when you think about pre COVID 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:23.840 versus now. So especially on the macro side, if you're 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.039 looking at the City Economic Surprise Index, particularly for the US, 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.839 I mean, that's continuing to outpace those expectations. And even 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.440 if you're looking at fourth quarter GDP growth for the 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:35.520 Atlanta Fed GDP now model, I mean, that's above two 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:37.920 and a half percent. So still you're continuing to see 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:40.760 strong consumer but also on the corporate side of things, 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.400 for particularly the stock market, that's continued to power things higher. 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:46.719 And Gina Martin Adams always talks about that too, So 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:48.960 those have been some communicators Caroline, why a lot of 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.400 these things just haven't panned out for some of these banks. 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:52.800 I mean, and some of that it used to be. 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.800 I'm not gonna used to but some of the biggest 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.720 profit geners were from the macro traders. They were at 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.680 the south side firms and then the hedge funds. Particularly 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.799 you're a macro trader, that just meant you were smarter 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:05.440 than everybody else. 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.280 I didn't think that equities or pods. 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:10.800 I think about the macro picture everything and those are 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:14.320 the guys and gals that made huge amounts of money. 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.039 But I've heard that again the performance has not been there. 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:17.960 No, they haven't. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:20.160 I have the funds are pulling out, I mean in 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.320 the fun flows out of that, out of those strategies. 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:24.760 So that's a key thing too, because even the S 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.440 and P five hundred right now, I mean, it's on 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.560 pace for over twenty percent gain this year. I mean, 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:30.440 that's the first time you'd see back to back gains 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:33.600 of that type of magnitude since the late nineteen nineties, 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.520 and we saw that happen twice during the dot com bubble, 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:38.880 but continuing to see even going into next year. It 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.080 seems like every year when the calendar turns, there wants 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:42.479 to be this kind of doom and gloom. I know 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.880 a lot of people are pointing at valuations, say like 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:46.960 the S and P five hundred right now trading around 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.599 twenty two times forward earnings on a blended basis if 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.400 you're looking in the terminal, if you look at the 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:53.920 average over the last decade, es around eighteen. But even 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.520 if you strip out the Magnificent seven, it's still around twenty. 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.360 But a lot of traders I speak with, they'll point 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.560 to how valuations if you look over the last ten years, 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:03.840 or even if you want to look at sentiment, that 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:06.839 stuff can stay kind of frothy and grow on for 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:09.480 weeks once even potentially years there. So they tend to 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:12.200 not like to use that for trading strategies right now. 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.000 What's interesting, I mean, I think it's Coolish and Greenwich, 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.080 which has been putting together a lot of these stata 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:21.000 around the moon music for rates traders and for four 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.080 X a little bit more optimism if you're trading foreign exchange. 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:27.840 But rates is painful in large part because of electronification 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.320 here as well. I mean, things look very different twenty 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:32.920 years ago because there were a few at market makers 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:34.800 and most people are still picking up a phone. 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.320 That's a good point, and it's just a different dynamic 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:42.160 of how interconnected the global economy is as well as technology, 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:44.280 and when you're trying to make some of these trades too, 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:45.760 and so when you're looking at kind of the four 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:49.000 X market versus the rates markets too, I mean, especially 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:52.360 because the conundrum of when you're seeing yields rise, whether 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.080 that's okay, was that on a strengthening economy or is 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.480 that trying to tell you something about federal reserve policy. 0:07:57.520 --> 0:07:58.920 It's make it a lot. 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.960 More of a conundrum coming out COVID too, Caroline, So. 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:04.920 What's the smart trade for twenty twenty five is or 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:05.520 such a thing? 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:08.480 I might just buy a Nvidia, right, I know, because 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.920 especially with that, I mean Nvidia the third quarter I 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.600 didn't do as well as it had in prior quarters, 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.760 but still the best stock in the S and P 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.280 five hundred, not over even just the last year, but 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.360 the last two years. But something that people are watching. 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:24.920 If you look at the ETF that tracks semiconductor companies 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.280 and chip makers smh, that's important because there's a level 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.600 around two forty. It's trading around to forty two right now, 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:33.280 but the two forty is kind of more of a 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:35.800 broad support measure that they're looking at. So you kind 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:37.480 of want to look at that as a gauge, not 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:39.680 even just for semi conductor companies, but also kind of 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.760 more broadly for the stock market to see what that 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:45.040 could mean because not surprisingly, the big waiting that chip makers. 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:46.560 Have good software. 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.240 Yeah, exactly why there's going to be the need, right, 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:51.040 And so that's a big thing too, because it's beyond 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.520 even just some of the big AI type players there 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:55.040 and what. But when I'm speaking with a lot of 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:58.160 portfolio managers, that actually is a space like Marion Bartel's. 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.640 She's on Bloomberg a lot too, but software companies is 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:02.560 one of the ones that she continues to plow money into. 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:06.280 All right, Jess ESPN dot Com Texas five and a 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.880 half point favorite little action down there. 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:11.440 I mean, you know, I was not able to get 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:14.480 a ticket. Unfortunately, we're talking about how expensive there is. 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.319 I think at the average purchase price was over one 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:18.000 thousand bucks. 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:20.520 This experiential, right. 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:23.880 That's what the kids are doing Texas at Texas A 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:26.480 and M College Station Texas. 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:27.320 It's going to be great. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:28.559 But just watch it here. 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:30.600 Exactly, jess Man, thank you so much. We appreciate it. 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:35.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:39.320 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.120 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:45.320 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:52.559 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:54.080 Christmas Trees yougo Hill, No, of course not. 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.439 I buy my Christmas tree honor about my birthday, which 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:00.559 is early one yes, but we've gone. I've gone both 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.520 ways over the years. Because my kids were younger, they 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:05.000 had some allergies. We would go for several years we 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:06.800 went to fake tree. I'm kind of indifferent. 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:08.080 Yeah, we got a bit of both. 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:10.760 Do We got like we get one real one for 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:14.080 the smell and one fake one for the downstairs. 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:16.040 Right five, So let's how you do it, all right, 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.000 It all works out. People have their their play there. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:23.480 Chris Butler Joints is National Tree Company CEO joining us here, 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:25.559 I believe from Cranford, New Jersey, which is a cool 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:30.000 little town there. So Chris talk to us about kind 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.280 of Christmas decorations. 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:34.320 What are people doing these days? 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:37.080 What's different today versus I don't know, ten years fifteen 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.040 years ago. It seems like people are going nuts for 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:41.360 Christmas decorations. 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:43.960 They are going nuts. Yeah, And I like what both 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.800 of you guys said. You switch between the artificial the reel. 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.959 Were big fans of real as well as artificial. Obviously, 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:56.600 eighty percent of US consumers by artificial trees, and so 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:01.400 the reel is definitely the minor. But again, obviously we're 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:04.440 big fans of trees in general. But you know, it's 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:08.199 the pre lit now, so trees come pre lit. Obviously, 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.560 there's no mess, they're a lot cheaper, the materials are 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:12.680 a lot better. There's a lot of functionality with the 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:14.960 lights that you can get today, and so that's really 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.520 what we're seeing. And there's a lot of extra wreaths 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:20.640 and garlands and things being brought as well. And I 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:24.400 think with the Instagram generation, the show me generation, people 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.800 are really now decorating to kind of show their friends 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.840 and show their followers just how beautiful our homes can be. 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.280 And so you know, as you said, Carolyn, they have 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.120 a lot of trees in a lot of different rooms 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.439 and so you know, maybe the kids have a tree now, 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.880 the kitchen has a small tree putting the mantlepiece with 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.640 garlands and small trees. So you know, we're seeing a 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:47.480 lot of incremental decorating with a lot of different items 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:49.400 and in terms of getting back to that swell thing. 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:52.839 So you're right, the main reason people buy a real 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.720 tree is for that real Christmas smell. We bought a 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.960 company called Sensicles a few years ago and they are 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:03.080 scented ornament which smells just like Christmas. So if you 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.320 hang your centered ornament on an artificial tree, you get 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.680 that real tree, that real tree smell as well, and 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:10.400 no allergies. 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:16.160 Assume I'm looking at god onto your website. First thing, 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.800 holiday magic begins. Enter a week, win a gift card, 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.080 Blackout Friday blowout deals up to eighty percent off. How 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.280 much are you having to think about discounting? How much 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:29.480 amid perhaps fear of some that where you're getting your 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.839 supplies from the cost might have to go up in 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:32.320 the future. 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.840 Yeah, that's a great question. So look, Black Friday through 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:39.839 Cyber Monday this year obviously is one week later, so 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:41.800 the holiday season is a week later. So I think 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:46.600 every retail as ourselves included, are really discounting to make 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.439 sure that we can take it kind of capture those 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.839 sales that we might have missed otherwise given given the 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.640 week's delay. In terms of the tariffs, Look, you know, 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.880 we've been on a diversification kind of trend over the 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:02.160 last few years now any way, trying to diversify ourselves 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.000 out of just one source of manufacturing, which which would 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.199 be China. You know, I think if the tariffs go through, 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.320 who knows what the tariffs will be or when they 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.520 will go into effect, but you know, from our standpoint, obviously, 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.200 it's it's impactful, and so we're trying to diversify a 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.600 manufacturing base between now and you know, now in kind 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.079 of twenty twenty six. You know, the promotional things we're 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:26.439 doing right now really aren't in answer to that. It's 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.760 really more just to kind of capture those sales for 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.280 this season. But if you are a consumer and you're 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.040 looking for a tree and you're thinking of buying a 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.040 tree or other holiday de corps, this year is a 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:38.880 great time to buy it because if those tariffs go 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:41.839 into effect, prices will definitely go up in the next 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:42.280 year or so. 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:44.120 Can you give us a breakdown of sort of how 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.360 much of your supply chain is dependent on China? 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:49.280 Yeah, it's very large today, so I can't give you 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:51.080 the exact numbers, but it's very large. But we are 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.800 diversifying out. We've been on this diversification journey for a 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:58.640 few years now, and so you know, probably by the 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:00.719 end of twenty twenty six we could be completely out 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:04.560 of China, which you know is a significant change. 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:10.280 So anything particularly the hot cellar this year, Chris. 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.760 Yeah, you know, so it's funny. So my wife loves 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.719 the sparkly trees, the snowy trees, and many consumers love 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.440 those things. But you know what we see year after 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:22.840 year after year is that green triangle, you know, the 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:27.280 kind of the staid, good drink green triangle, solid materials, 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:31.560 great lights, multi multi function lights. So you know, it's 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:35.520 not a trend driven it's not a trend driven industry. 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:41.240 I will say this year, disco is back. So who 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.120 doesn't love a bit of disco with their Christmas trees? 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.680 So disco is back. So we've definitely seen some sales 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.520 on some of our kind of disco themed items. But 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.120 again it is you know, people still do prefer that 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:56.240 traditional green tree with either the white lights, clear lights, 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.080 the multicolor or again we have the dual color functionality. 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:00.600 So that's that's what we every year. 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.360 Are you white lights, Caroline? Are you a different colored I. 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.440 Think one of ours has multicolored, but I think in 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.440 general I'm a boring person. I like a white light 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:13.280 with only red and gold vibes going on. And then 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.120 our thing is we collect Christmas decorations from. 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:16.920 Any city that we go. 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:18.920 So and then you have to remind yourself where the 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:22.960 hell you've got some of these random items. But I'm 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:26.880 really interested in not just about the idea of what 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.840 color lights or what you're whether you're doing sparkle or disco, 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.960 but you must be talking, Chris, to people in your 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.520 industry that are doing the real tree situation too. How 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:37.360 much you're going to have help this year by the 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.720 fact that we're here in the Northeast, we've had terrible 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.200 lack of water, We've had droughts, and the local Christmas 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.120 fruit tree farms next to me have been struggling. 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.240 Yeah, you know, it's a great question. Eighty percent of 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:53.120 like I said, eighty percent of consumers already buy artificial 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.440 trees versus twenty percent of consumers buying the real trees. 0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.000 So it's a small market already. And yeah, I'm unfortunate 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.320 with you know, with some climate change or with some 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:05.760 just whether in general is definitely hurting. Look, Oregon a 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.080 few years ago got hit. You know, there's some fungus 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.640 issues in the Carolinas. So it's it's a tough business 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:13.760 to be in making the kind of doing those real trees. 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.960 And look, we're here to pick up the pieces when 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.160 when you know they falter with some of their supply chain. 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:21.880 Chris is there any regionality in your business. 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.640 Do people in the South, I don't know, spend more 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.520 on their decorations per capita than the Midwest or anything 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.080 like that as a pretty standard across the. 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:30.840 Board, it's pretty standard. 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:33.240 You know, we do see the coastal towns going more 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.840 for kind of Christmas by the Sea type themes. But typically, 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:40.280 you know, our sales are driven by population centers, so, 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:45.040 you know, very good sales in the Northeast, obviously California, Texas, Florida. 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:49.760 It's really population driven. We don't necessarily see big regional 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.520 differences in our sales. Anyway. We sell, you know, most 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:55.120 of our sales are online, so we sell through Amazon, wafair, 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.800 home depot based, et cetera. And so we really see 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.040 sales driven by, you know, by where people live. 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:03.560 Hey, Chris, thanks so much for joining us. 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:07.439 Really appreciate it. Chris Butler, National Tree Company CEO, Carolyn, 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.440 If you noticed differences the way people decorate their houses 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.800 here in the US versus growing up in England, that's 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:14.600 a great question. 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.760 More is always less here? 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.440 We're more, right, Yeah, you are more. You are more 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:22.080 here in the United States. And I love that there's 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:24.160 like a tree for every room, a tree for every 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.760 person in the family, every animal that you might have. 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:27.760 So I'm all in on that. 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:29.479 I feel in the UK we were a bit more 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:31.800 dependent on real trees right, just as a general I 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:34.600 mean we're a smaller country and easier access to them. 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:36.879 But is there something that you guys do in England 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:38.720 that we don't do here decoration. 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:40.560 Wise, so Advent calendars. 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:45.040 Advent isn't deemed like a religious taking part in the 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.520 UK obviously, you know the Queen of England and King 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:49.359 of England. I mean generally there is a little bit 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:52.920 more focus on on Church of England within the country. 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.760 But actually the countdown and a twenty four day opening 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.280 of a calendar, whether there's a suite, candy and active 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:00.680 kindness in it, that was something. 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.679 That I grew up with. I found it much harder 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.360 to get here and Crackers is my other one. Now 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.280 suddenly we've getting them everywhere. 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.840 I'm seeing my local storehouse Crackers has Advent calendars. 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.960 I'm thankful you're. 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:17.000 Listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.760 at ten am Eastern on Affo card playing Android otto 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.840 with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:26.560 get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.120 Black Friday. It's important for retailers. This is it, folks. 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:31.399 Do you know why it's called Black Friday? 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:34.920 Because you're running the red all year and then Black 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:37.439 Friday Friday comes into a big advertising year, I mean 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:39.760 big sales year, and you kind of go into the black. 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.800 You become profitable Black Friday. Dana Tellsley knows that better 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.680 than anybody. Dana Tellsey tells the Advisory Group CEO and 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:49.720 Chief re church Officer, the go to voice on Wall 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.120 Street for all things retail for I'm going to say 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:53.960 twenty five years and I'll. 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:54.400 Leave it there. 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.879 Dana, It's been a wild four or five six years 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.560 for folks trying to figure out how they spend their money, 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:04.480 where they go, did they spend it on goods, services, experiences? 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:06.720 Give us a lay of the land of retail here 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:08.760