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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple Car playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Caroline Hid and Paul Sweeney, we are live here in

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Speaker 2: our Bloomberg Radio studio here in New York City, Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: HQ special edition of Bloomberg Markets here on this Black Friday.

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Speaker 2: Renowned economist Nouriel Rabini is warning that Donald Trump's agenda

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Speaker 2: of tax cuts and tariffs is shaping up as a

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Speaker 2: double edge sword for the United States. The CEO of

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Speaker 2: Rbini Macro Associates told us more about the potential impacts

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Speaker 2: of Trump's plans on inflation and growth.

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Speaker 3: The economic policies of Trump may lead to high economic growth,

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Speaker 3: to being for business, keeping tax or it's a low

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Speaker 3: dilate economy, but unfortunately many of the other policies are

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Speaker 3: going to have an implication of hiring, inflation and lower

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Speaker 3: economic growth. The first thing he has already announced is

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Speaker 3: going to be tariff against Mexico, Canada and China. And

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Speaker 3: that's only the beginning, he said, we might have up

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Speaker 3: to twenty percent tarif on all our trade partners, up

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Speaker 3: to sixty percent against China. He wants to have massive

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Speaker 3: deportation of people. In the last few years, the increase

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Speaker 3: in migration has kept the lead on wage growth, has

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Speaker 3: increased the labor supply has increased economic growth. So definitely

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Speaker 3: mass deportation is t inflationary. He wants not only to

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Speaker 3: make all those tax cuts permanent, but you made other

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Speaker 3: promises and no taxes on tips, on overtime and so

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Speaker 3: security on income earn abroad, and so on and so on.

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Speaker 3: This estimate that these things we add to the deficit

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Speaker 3: by eight thrillion dollars. Too much demand inflationary. You might

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Speaker 3: want to weekend a dollar that's going to be inflationary.

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Speaker 3: You may interfere with the independence of the FED. Getting

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Speaker 3: out of the Paris Accord is going to make climate

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Speaker 3: change much worse, in create a food price and things

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Speaker 3: of that sort.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting, Nouriel, a lot of things you just said,

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Speaker 4: or what a bitcoiner would say as to why you

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Speaker 4: should buy bitcoin. There's now the Bitcoin etf there over

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Speaker 4: one hundred billion dollars. Clearly a big hit there's talk

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Speaker 4: that it could be a strategic reserve. You have gold

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Speaker 4: in the portfolio. Is there anything that could move you

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Speaker 4: to add bitcoin to your ETF to help accomplish some

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Speaker 4: of these goals.

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Speaker 3: You know, the bitcoin is highly volatile. It can go

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Speaker 3: up by ten percent one day and down ten to

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Speaker 3: fifteen percent another day. If you want to a stable

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Speaker 3: store of value, you will not put bitcoin into your portfolio.

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Speaker 3: The kind of acids we're actually thinking about are all

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Speaker 3: acid that do well when you have over growth and

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Speaker 3: you have higher inflation, whether it's tapes, shortened treasuries. Gold

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Speaker 3: is a hedge against inflation. The basement did Alara shown geopolitics,

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Speaker 3: financial crises, some exposure to a commodities, they're going to

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Speaker 3: do well in a world of inflation, amid change, and

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Speaker 3: environmentally sustainable rids. So it's a diversified pulfolio of acids

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Speaker 3: that historical have done well in these types of tail risks.

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Speaker 3: I'm skeptical for a lot of reasons about cryptocurrency is

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Speaker 3: a bitcoin because they're not currencies. They're not the unit

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Speaker 3: of account, they're not the scale of means of payment,

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Speaker 3: they're not the stable store of value. And if you

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Speaker 3: want well preservation rather than high relativity. You want to

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Speaker 3: stay away from those types of assets.

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Speaker 5: That was Noria Rubini speaking with Blue Bag Intelligence analyst

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Speaker 5: Eric Beltunus. Meanwhile, we want to delve in a little

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Speaker 5: bit more to just these markets and the SP five hundred,

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Speaker 5: of course on a tear one of the best years

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Speaker 5: in history. Tho those investors have just been methodically shrugging

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Speaker 5: off geopolitical risk, of the geopolitical risk of central bank

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Speaker 5: temper concern and inflation perhaps running a little bit warmer

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Speaker 5: than had been anticipated. We've got to sort of try

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Speaker 5: and analyze therefore and market it's been for the money

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Speaker 5: makers out there, the banks in particular, it's not been pleasant.

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Speaker 5: If you've been trying to make these markets in flour

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Speaker 5: X and rates, they've not been having a great year

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Speaker 5: for traders there the hit by title margins by challenging

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Speaker 5: macroeconomic backdrops. We want to get to it with jess Menton,

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Speaker 5: who's been going through what is a great story of

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Speaker 5: how difficult it has been to trade the macro of late,

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Speaker 5: because there's been these shock moves that go against everyone.

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Speaker 6: It really is, and especially because Paul and I have

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Speaker 6: spoken so much over the last couple of years about

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Speaker 6: especially going into not even just this past year, but

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Speaker 6: in twenty twenty three, after we saw the loan, the

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Speaker 6: S and P five hundred and October of twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 6: There's still so much gloom and doom, and a lot

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Speaker 6: of it has been especially when you're coming out of

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Speaker 6: COVID and what the disruptions from the pandemic did, because

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Speaker 6: a lot of people were trading off of playbooks that

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Speaker 6: would have worked maybe prior to the pandemic, but when

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Speaker 6: you have a once in a century pandemic like that

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Speaker 6: and it up ends business activity, it made a lot

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Speaker 6: of the trades tougher to call because there are certain

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Speaker 6: strategies where you would use for instance, if this happened,

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Speaker 6: you'd buy this or only you know there would be

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Speaker 6: one hundred percent track records for certain thresholds where you

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Speaker 6: know you wouldn't see the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 6: hit another low. But there are a lot of things

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Speaker 6: that they had to like throw that playbook out, And

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Speaker 6: I'm sure paul In like your career with a lot

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Speaker 6: of things you saw, especially if you thought about like

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Speaker 6: the housing crisis or I know you were on the

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Speaker 6: floor a couple of weeks before the eighty seven crash,

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Speaker 6: things were very different when you think about pre COVID

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Speaker 6: versus now. So especially on the macro side, if you're

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Speaker 6: looking at the City Economic Surprise Index, particularly for the US,

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Speaker 6: I mean, that's continuing to outpace those expectations. And even

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Speaker 6: if you're looking at fourth quarter GDP growth for the

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Speaker 6: Atlanta Fed GDP now model, I mean, that's above two

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Speaker 6: and a half percent. So still you're continuing to see

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Speaker 6: strong consumer but also on the corporate side of things,

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Speaker 6: for particularly the stock market, that's continued to power things higher.

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Speaker 6: And Gina Martin Adams always talks about that too, So

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Speaker 6: those have been some communicators Caroline, why a lot of

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Speaker 6: these things just haven't panned out for some of these banks.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and some of that it used to be.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna used to but some of the biggest

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Speaker 2: profit geners were from the macro traders. They were at

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Speaker 2: the south side firms and then the hedge funds. Particularly

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Speaker 2: you're a macro trader, that just meant you were smarter

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Speaker 2: than everybody else.

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Speaker 7: I didn't think that equities or pods.

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Speaker 2: I think about the macro picture everything and those are

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Speaker 2: the guys and gals that made huge amounts of money.

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Speaker 7: But I've heard that again the performance has not been there.

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Speaker 8: No, they haven't.

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Speaker 2: I have the funds are pulling out, I mean in

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Speaker 2: the fun flows out of that, out of those strategies.

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Speaker 6: So that's a key thing too, because even the S

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Speaker 6: and P five hundred right now, I mean, it's on

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Speaker 6: pace for over twenty percent gain this year. I mean,

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Speaker 6: that's the first time you'd see back to back gains

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Speaker 6: of that type of magnitude since the late nineteen nineties,

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Speaker 6: and we saw that happen twice during the dot com bubble,

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Speaker 6: but continuing to see even going into next year. It

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Speaker 6: seems like every year when the calendar turns, there wants

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Speaker 6: to be this kind of doom and gloom. I know

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Speaker 6: a lot of people are pointing at valuations, say like

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Speaker 6: the S and P five hundred right now trading around

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Speaker 6: twenty two times forward earnings on a blended basis if

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Speaker 6: you're looking in the terminal, if you look at the

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Speaker 6: average over the last decade, es around eighteen. But even

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Speaker 6: if you strip out the Magnificent seven, it's still around twenty.

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Speaker 6: But a lot of traders I speak with, they'll point

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Speaker 6: to how valuations if you look over the last ten years,

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Speaker 6: or even if you want to look at sentiment, that

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Speaker 6: stuff can stay kind of frothy and grow on for

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Speaker 6: weeks once even potentially years there. So they tend to

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Speaker 6: not like to use that for trading strategies right now.

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Speaker 5: What's interesting, I mean, I think it's Coolish and Greenwich,

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Speaker 5: which has been putting together a lot of these stata

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Speaker 5: around the moon music for rates traders and for four

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Speaker 5: X a little bit more optimism if you're trading foreign exchange.

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Speaker 5: But rates is painful in large part because of electronification

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Speaker 5: here as well. I mean, things look very different twenty

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Speaker 5: years ago because there were a few at market makers

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Speaker 5: and most people are still picking up a phone.

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Speaker 6: That's a good point, and it's just a different dynamic

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Speaker 6: of how interconnected the global economy is as well as technology,

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Speaker 6: and when you're trying to make some of these trades too,

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Speaker 6: and so when you're looking at kind of the four

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Speaker 6: X market versus the rates markets too, I mean, especially

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Speaker 6: because the conundrum of when you're seeing yields rise, whether

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Speaker 6: that's okay, was that on a strengthening economy or is

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Speaker 6: that trying to tell you something about federal reserve policy.

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Speaker 8: It's make it a lot.

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Speaker 6: More of a conundrum coming out COVID too, Caroline, So.

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Speaker 2: What's the smart trade for twenty twenty five is or

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Speaker 2: such a thing?

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Speaker 6: I might just buy a Nvidia, right, I know, because

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Speaker 6: especially with that, I mean Nvidia the third quarter I

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Speaker 6: didn't do as well as it had in prior quarters,

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Speaker 6: but still the best stock in the S and P

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Speaker 6: five hundred, not over even just the last year, but

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Speaker 6: the last two years. But something that people are watching.

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Speaker 6: If you look at the ETF that tracks semiconductor companies

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Speaker 6: and chip makers smh, that's important because there's a level

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Speaker 6: around two forty. It's trading around to forty two right now,

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Speaker 6: but the two forty is kind of more of a

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Speaker 6: broad support measure that they're looking at. So you kind

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Speaker 6: of want to look at that as a gauge, not

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Speaker 6: even just for semi conductor companies, but also kind of

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Speaker 6: more broadly for the stock market to see what that

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Speaker 6: could mean because not surprisingly, the big waiting that chip makers.

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Speaker 8: Have good software.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly why there's going to be the need, right,

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Speaker 6: And so that's a big thing too, because it's beyond

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Speaker 6: even just some of the big AI type players there

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Speaker 6: and what. But when I'm speaking with a lot of

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Speaker 6: portfolio managers, that actually is a space like Marion Bartel's.

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Speaker 6: She's on Bloomberg a lot too, but software companies is

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Speaker 6: one of the ones that she continues to plow money into.

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Speaker 2: All right, Jess ESPN dot Com Texas five and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorite little action down there.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you know, I was not able to get

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Speaker 6: a ticket. Unfortunately, we're talking about how expensive there is.

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Speaker 6: I think at the average purchase price was over one

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Speaker 6: thousand bucks.

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Speaker 8: This experiential, right.

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Speaker 2: That's what the kids are doing Texas at Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M College Station Texas.

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Speaker 8: It's going to be great.

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Speaker 6: But just watch it here.

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Speaker 7: Exactly, jess Man, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 7: Christmas Trees yougo Hill, No, of course not.

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Speaker 2: I buy my Christmas tree honor about my birthday, which

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Speaker 2: is early one yes, but we've gone. I've gone both

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Speaker 2: ways over the years. Because my kids were younger, they

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Speaker 2: had some allergies. We would go for several years we

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Speaker 2: went to fake tree. I'm kind of indifferent.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, we got a bit of both.

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Speaker 5: Do We got like we get one real one for

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Speaker 5: the smell and one fake one for the downstairs.

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Speaker 7: Right five, So let's how you do it, all right,

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Speaker 7: It all works out. People have their their play there.

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Speaker 2: Chris Butler Joints is National Tree Company CEO joining us here,

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Speaker 2: I believe from Cranford, New Jersey, which is a cool

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Speaker 2: little town there. So Chris talk to us about kind

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Speaker 2: of Christmas decorations.

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Speaker 7: What are people doing these days?

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Speaker 2: What's different today versus I don't know, ten years fifteen

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Speaker 2: years ago. It seems like people are going nuts for

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Speaker 2: Christmas decorations.

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Speaker 9: They are going nuts. Yeah, And I like what both

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Speaker 9: of you guys said. You switch between the artificial the reel.

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Speaker 9: Were big fans of real as well as artificial. Obviously,

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Speaker 9: eighty percent of US consumers by artificial trees, and so

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Speaker 9: the reel is definitely the minor. But again, obviously we're

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Speaker 9: big fans of trees in general. But you know, it's

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Speaker 9: the pre lit now, so trees come pre lit. Obviously,

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Speaker 9: there's no mess, they're a lot cheaper, the materials are

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Speaker 9: a lot better. There's a lot of functionality with the

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Speaker 9: lights that you can get today, and so that's really

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Speaker 9: what we're seeing. And there's a lot of extra wreaths

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Speaker 9: and garlands and things being brought as well. And I

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Speaker 9: think with the Instagram generation, the show me generation, people

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Speaker 9: are really now decorating to kind of show their friends

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Speaker 9: and show their followers just how beautiful our homes can be.

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Speaker 9: And so you know, as you said, Carolyn, they have

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Speaker 9: a lot of trees in a lot of different rooms

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Speaker 9: and so you know, maybe the kids have a tree now,

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Speaker 9: the kitchen has a small tree putting the mantlepiece with

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Speaker 9: garlands and small trees. So you know, we're seeing a

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Speaker 9: lot of incremental decorating with a lot of different items

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Speaker 9: and in terms of getting back to that swell thing.

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Speaker 9: So you're right, the main reason people buy a real

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Speaker 9: tree is for that real Christmas smell. We bought a

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Speaker 9: company called Sensicles a few years ago and they are

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Speaker 9: scented ornament which smells just like Christmas. So if you

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Speaker 9: hang your centered ornament on an artificial tree, you get

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Speaker 9: that real tree, that real tree smell as well, and

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Speaker 9: no allergies.

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Speaker 5: Assume I'm looking at god onto your website. First thing,

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Speaker 5: holiday magic begins. Enter a week, win a gift card,

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Speaker 5: Blackout Friday blowout deals up to eighty percent off. How

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Speaker 5: much are you having to think about discounting? How much

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Speaker 5: amid perhaps fear of some that where you're getting your

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Speaker 5: supplies from the cost might have to go up in

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Speaker 5: the future.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, that's a great question. So look, Black Friday through

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Speaker 9: Cyber Monday this year obviously is one week later, so

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Speaker 9: the holiday season is a week later. So I think

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Speaker 9: every retail as ourselves included, are really discounting to make

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Speaker 9: sure that we can take it kind of capture those

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Speaker 9: sales that we might have missed otherwise given given the

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Speaker 9: week's delay. In terms of the tariffs, Look, you know,

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Speaker 9: we've been on a diversification kind of trend over the

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Speaker 9: last few years now any way, trying to diversify ourselves

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Speaker 9: out of just one source of manufacturing, which which would

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Speaker 9: be China. You know, I think if the tariffs go through,

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Speaker 9: who knows what the tariffs will be or when they

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Speaker 9: will go into effect, but you know, from our standpoint, obviously,

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Speaker 9: it's it's impactful, and so we're trying to diversify a

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Speaker 9: manufacturing base between now and you know, now in kind

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Speaker 9: of twenty twenty six. You know, the promotional things we're

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Speaker 9: doing right now really aren't in answer to that. It's

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Speaker 9: really more just to kind of capture those sales for

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Speaker 9: this season. But if you are a consumer and you're

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Speaker 9: looking for a tree and you're thinking of buying a

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Speaker 9: tree or other holiday de corps, this year is a

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Speaker 9: great time to buy it because if those tariffs go

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Speaker 9: into effect, prices will definitely go up in the next

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Speaker 9: year or so.

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Speaker 5: Can you give us a breakdown of sort of how

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Speaker 5: much of your supply chain is dependent on China?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's very large today, so I can't give you

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Speaker 9: the exact numbers, but it's very large. But we are

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Speaker 9: diversifying out. We've been on this diversification journey for a

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Speaker 9: few years now, and so you know, probably by the

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Speaker 9: end of twenty twenty six we could be completely out

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Speaker 9: of China, which you know is a significant change.

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Speaker 2: So anything particularly the hot cellar this year, Chris.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, so it's funny. So my wife loves

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Speaker 9: the sparkly trees, the snowy trees, and many consumers love

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Speaker 9: those things. But you know what we see year after

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Speaker 9: year after year is that green triangle, you know, the

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Speaker 9: kind of the staid, good drink green triangle, solid materials,

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Speaker 9: great lights, multi multi function lights. So you know, it's

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Speaker 9: not a trend driven it's not a trend driven industry.

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Speaker 9: I will say this year, disco is back. So who

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Speaker 9: doesn't love a bit of disco with their Christmas trees?

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Speaker 9: So disco is back. So we've definitely seen some sales

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Speaker 9: on some of our kind of disco themed items. But

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Speaker 9: again it is you know, people still do prefer that

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Speaker 9: traditional green tree with either the white lights, clear lights,

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Speaker 9: the multicolor or again we have the dual color functionality.

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Speaker 9: So that's that's what we every year.

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Speaker 2: Are you white lights, Caroline? Are you a different colored I.

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Speaker 5: Think one of ours has multicolored, but I think in

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Speaker 5: general I'm a boring person. I like a white light

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Speaker 5: with only red and gold vibes going on. And then

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Speaker 5: our thing is we collect Christmas decorations from.

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Speaker 8: Any city that we go.

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Speaker 5: So and then you have to remind yourself where the

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Speaker 5: hell you've got some of these random items. But I'm

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Speaker 5: really interested in not just about the idea of what

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Speaker 5: color lights or what you're whether you're doing sparkle or disco,

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Speaker 5: but you must be talking, Chris, to people in your

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Speaker 5: industry that are doing the real tree situation too. How

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Speaker 5: much you're going to have help this year by the

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Speaker 5: fact that we're here in the Northeast, we've had terrible

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Speaker 5: lack of water, We've had droughts, and the local Christmas

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Speaker 5: fruit tree farms next to me have been struggling.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, it's a great question. Eighty percent of

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Speaker 9: like I said, eighty percent of consumers already buy artificial

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Speaker 9: trees versus twenty percent of consumers buying the real trees.

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Speaker 9: So it's a small market already. And yeah, I'm unfortunate

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Speaker 9: with you know, with some climate change or with some

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Speaker 9: just whether in general is definitely hurting. Look, Oregon a

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Speaker 9: few years ago got hit. You know, there's some fungus

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Speaker 9: issues in the Carolinas. So it's it's a tough business

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Speaker 9: to be in making the kind of doing those real trees.

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Speaker 9: And look, we're here to pick up the pieces when

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Speaker 9: when you know they falter with some of their supply chain.

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Speaker 7: Chris is there any regionality in your business.

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Speaker 2: Do people in the South, I don't know, spend more

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Speaker 2: on their decorations per capita than the Midwest or anything

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Speaker 2: like that as a pretty standard across the.

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Speaker 10: Board, it's pretty standard.

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Speaker 9: You know, we do see the coastal towns going more

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Speaker 9: for kind of Christmas by the Sea type themes. But typically,

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Speaker 9: you know, our sales are driven by population centers, so,

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Speaker 9: you know, very good sales in the Northeast, obviously California, Texas, Florida.

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Speaker 9: It's really population driven. We don't necessarily see big regional

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Speaker 9: differences in our sales. Anyway. We sell, you know, most

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Speaker 9: of our sales are online, so we sell through Amazon, wafair,

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Speaker 9: home depot based, et cetera. And so we really see

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Speaker 9: sales driven by, you know, by where people live.

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Speaker 7: Hey, Chris, thanks so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Really appreciate it. Chris Butler, National Tree Company CEO, Carolyn,

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Speaker 2: If you noticed differences the way people decorate their houses

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Speaker 2: here in the US versus growing up in England, that's

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Speaker 2: a great question.

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Speaker 8: More is always less here?

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Speaker 5: We're more, right, Yeah, you are more. You are more

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Speaker 5: here in the United States. And I love that there's

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Speaker 5: like a tree for every room, a tree for every

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Speaker 5: person in the family, every animal that you might have.

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Speaker 8: So I'm all in on that.

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Speaker 5: I feel in the UK we were a bit more

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Speaker 5: dependent on real trees right, just as a general I

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Speaker 5: mean we're a smaller country and easier access to them.

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Speaker 2: But is there something that you guys do in England

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Speaker 2: that we don't do here decoration.

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Speaker 8: Wise, so Advent calendars.

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Speaker 5: Advent isn't deemed like a religious taking part in the

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Speaker 5: UK obviously, you know the Queen of England and King

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Speaker 5: of England. I mean generally there is a little bit

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Speaker 5: more focus on on Church of England within the country.

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Speaker 5: But actually the countdown and a twenty four day opening

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Speaker 5: of a calendar, whether there's a suite, candy and active

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Speaker 5: kindness in it, that was something.

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Speaker 8: That I grew up with. I found it much harder

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Speaker 8: to get here and Crackers is my other one. Now

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Speaker 8: suddenly we've getting them everywhere.

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Speaker 5: I'm seeing my local storehouse Crackers has Advent calendars.

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Speaker 8: I'm thankful you're.

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Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Affo card playing Android otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 7: Black Friday. It's important for retailers. This is it, folks.

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Speaker 7: Do you know why it's called Black Friday?

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Speaker 2: Because you're running the red all year and then Black

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Speaker 2: Friday Friday comes into a big advertising year, I mean

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Speaker 2: big sales year, and you kind of go into the black.

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Speaker 2: You become profitable Black Friday. Dana Tellsley knows that better

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Speaker 2: than anybody. Dana Tellsey tells the Advisory Group CEO and

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Speaker 2: Chief re church Officer, the go to voice on Wall

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Speaker 2: Street for all things retail for I'm going to say

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Speaker 2: twenty five years and I'll.

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Speaker 7: Leave it there.

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Speaker 2: Dana, It's been a wild four or five six years

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Speaker 2: for folks trying to figure out how they spend their money,

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Speaker 2: where they go, did they spend it on goods, services, experiences?

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Speaker 2: Give us a lay of the land of retail here

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Speaker 2: on a Black Friday, twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 11: First of all, you're exactly right, and thank you for

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Speaker 11: having me. It is the super Bowl of retail always

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Speaker 11: on Black Friday. Retailer is prepared for months in order

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Speaker 11: to get it right. So what do you do? What

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Speaker 11: is happening right now with retail I think the consumer's resilient.

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Speaker 11: I think a bit it's about product newness that's driving

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Speaker 11: sell through in conversion. Look what you have with companies

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Speaker 11: like a Birkenstock or Ralph Lauren Deckers and on. And

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Speaker 11: then it's also about value because that lower income consumer,

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Speaker 11: they are being very watchful about their dollars given what

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Speaker 11: they're seeing out there, the continued pressure of elevated prices.

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Speaker 11: Inflation might not be going up, but it couldn't come

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Speaker 11: down fast enough for them. And that's why you saw

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Speaker 11: Walmart talk about the fact that most of their share

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Speaker 11: gains came from the higher income consumer. And given that

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Speaker 11: sixty to sixty five percent of their sales come from grocery,

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Speaker 11: you look at Target, which has more coming from discretionary

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Speaker 11: nearly half. That was the headwinds. And then you look

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Speaker 11: at what's happening with gift giving. Who would have thought

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Speaker 11: that the off price was like TJX. They're getting in

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Speaker 11: the throes of gift giving and they're gaining more traffic.

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Speaker 11: But what every retailer is doing this holiday season increasing

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Speaker 11: the marketing. You have a very social consumer who basically

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Speaker 11: is enticed, whether it's by their phone, whether it's by

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Speaker 11: emails or in store. And yes, what we saw this

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Speaker 11: morning so far, because I was at Macy's two already

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Speaker 11: as the mornings come on, you've seen traffic increase, and

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Speaker 11: I think that social engagement with the physical store is helping.

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Speaker 11: We also have a compressed holiday season. Don't discount that

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Speaker 11: Thanksgiving on the twenty eighth last year, it was on

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Speaker 11: the twenty third. The pull forward to promotions led to

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Speaker 11: more conversion earlier in the season, but consumers are still

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Speaker 11: going to spend a lot of them are procrastinators.

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Speaker 7: Am I going to get deals?

436
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 6: Dan?

437
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: And what's the promotional environment like ethic? Cause that impacts

438
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:57,120
Speaker 2: the margins for your companies.

439
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 10: It does.

440
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 11: Average promotion these days seems like around thirty percent. When

441
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 11: I did my walkthroughs yesterday, I even found a store

442
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 11: that's open because you know me, I have to be

443
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 11: in a store every day. Ritzia in Soho was open,

444
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 11: just open on Tuesday, brand new store, absolutely beautiful. But

445
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 11: overall it's around thirty percent. That's the discounts. Some of

446
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 11: them may be higher, some may be a little bit lower.

447
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 11: Luxury goods is having a tough time, but you never

448
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 11: see discounts at luxury goods. What you need to see

449
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 11: on fifty seventh Street is those Louis Vuitton trunks.

450
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 8: But overall, yes, beautiful.

451
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,199
Speaker 11: I think it'll be a resilient holiday of three to

452
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 11: three and a half percent increase on the margin side,

453
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 11: Increased marketing is planned, the promotional levels are planned. I

454
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 11: think there's more stability in the margins, more uncertainty what

455
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 11: the top line looks.

456
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 8: Like, more uncertainy.

457
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 5: If you're starting to think the costs are going to

458
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 5: go up because of tariffs, I'll consume is even considering that,

459
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 5: because I'm pretty sure the reten is.

460
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 11: All the retailers are considering a big time, and the

461
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 11: diversification from China is playing at every single retailer. Look

462
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 11: what you had this week when even a Abercrombie and

463
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 11: Fitch talked about less than ten percent their goods coming

464
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 11: from China. Look what you had with Gap talking the

465
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 11: same thing on apparel with those who have significant exposure,

466
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 11: and a lot of it is footwear companies, they're working

467
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 11: to diversify fast because if anything, look at the NRF

468
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 11: study where nearly eighty percent of consumer spend dollars would

469
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 11: be impacted by tariffs requiring nearly a double digit price increase.

470
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 11: Consumers don't want that.

471
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 8: They definitely don't.

472
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 5: Do they want to be shopping via influencers or do

473
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 5: they want to be shopping via their own viewpoint and

474
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,959
Speaker 5: long term love affair with certain companies and brands.

475
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 11: I think influencers create the viewpoints. I think influencers help

476
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 11: the consumers overall see what's working for them. The brands

477
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 11: also advocate for influencers too, because they want that awareness

478
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 11: given to expand their demographics. Because influencers today, it could

479
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 11: be for millennials, it could be for baby boomers. What

480
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 11: you know is consumers are watching pictures. Pictures are on Instagram,

481
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 11: they're on social media, and I think that's going to

482
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 11: be one of the bigger themes as we move through

483
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 11: twenty twenty five.

484
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 7: Dana e commerce versus bricks and mortar.

485
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 2: I know the pandemic brought a lot of e commerce

486
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: market share forward.

487
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 7: How's that dynamic? These days?

488
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 11: Overall, you need both. You can't have one or the other.

489
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 11: It's got to be both. And what you're seeing is

490
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 11: the store fills a broader function. They do buy online,

491
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 11: pickup and store. They do ship from store, and you

492
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 11: know what they do back to that word again, social.

493
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 11: They create social engagement. So I think overall, you're continuing

494
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 11: to see bigger gains in the holiday season from online

495
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 11: should be high single digits this year, but you need

496
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 11: that bricks and mortar in order to drive awareness, and

497
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 11: you're seeing more retailers invest in their stores. You have

498
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 11: more stores being opened in terms of retailers and net openers,

499
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 11: but of a smaller sized box than in the past.

500
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 11: Go physical is what I'm about. Go physical.

501
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 5: I mean even on Thanksgiving, you mind to go and

502
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 5: find a store that's open. I mean, I feel that

503
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 5: Black Friday deals have been thrown at me for the

504
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 5: past week, if not longer. I mean we were reporting

505
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 5: on of course eleven and eleven and what happened with

506
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 5: the Chinese discounts that just were never.

507
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 8: Ending in terms of length that we had for Singles Day?

508
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 8: Is this just the new world order? Do we feel

509
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 8: like there evident isn't.

510
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 11: A discount on I think one of the things that

511
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 11: happened this year, it just started earlier the minute Amazon

512
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 11: had their their Prime Day, and then you had the

513
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 11: Target Circle week in Walmart in October. It was game

514
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 11: on for the holiday season because every wanted one, wanted

515
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 11: to capture as much as they could of that consumer

516
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 11: spending dollar because it's back to school in the fall

517
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 11: and it's holiday. That are your two key shopping time periods.

518
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,479
Speaker 7: Anything the go to gift or item this season.

519
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 11: I mean, you're gonna look for Birkenstock closed toe shoes.

520
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 11: Told you ag that's going to be a go to

521
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 11: that people.

522
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 2: Want Birkenstock closed toe shoe as opposed to Birkenstock sandal.

523
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 8: Yes, but you know you gotta have both, okay.

524
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 11: So and then you know what, look at the Brooklyn

525
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 11: bag coach that's been super popular lately on running in

526
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 11: their foot that's been working very well too. So we've

527
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 11: got and you know what, even some of the private

528
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 11: companies with intimate apparel like Skims, you got to watch

529
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 11: what they're doing.

530
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 8: They have some cool marketing campaigns as well. Daniels is

531
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 8: great to have you. Thank you for me, Thank you

532
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 8: for pas.

533
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 5: Stop up to Bloomingdale's next door, a Dantel going there

534
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 5: next and CEO and chief revenue officer and a Telsey

535
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 5: advisory group.

536
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 8: Always a joy to have.

537
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 1: A you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us

538
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and

539
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

540
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

541
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

542
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 7: I haven't seen Gladiator two.

543
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,719
Speaker 2: I haven't seen Wicked, but I got to do that

544
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 2: maybe over the weekend. But that's been some positive story

545
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: here for the US box office. Daniel Laurier joins US

546
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 2: editorial director at The Box Office Company. Dan, you'll talk

547
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: to us about kind of the of North American box office.

548
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 7: Here are people going to the movies.

549
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 12: Oh, it's a hot streak, Paul. We've seen great recovery

550
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 12: so far this year. Remember we entered the year expecting

551
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 12: down season year over year twenty four to twenty three.

552
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 12: But really since June it's been a hot streak. We're

553
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 12: expecting to finish the year close to even to twenty

554
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 12: three after beginning of the year expecting a ten percent slide.

555
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 12: So it's been a really, really big recovery thanks to

556
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 12: films like this.

557
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 5: I mean, Disney just knocking it out the park at

558
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 5: the moment they've had winning Formula after winning Formula, how

559
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 5: big a deal is Mana Are you going to be?

560
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 10: I think it's going to be huge.

561
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 12: We just posted the largest Thanksgiving Day ever for a title,

562
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 12: Maana Tuo did that yesterday, over eighty million dollars in

563
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 12: box office for the first two days in release.

564
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 10: For Mawana Too, we're.

565
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 12: Expecting maybe two hundred million dollars plus from that title

566
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 12: this weekend. To give you an idea, guys, this might

567
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 12: be the highest earning Thanksgiving weekend of fall time.

568
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 5: And is that because they've got the formula right of

569
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 5: this something for everyone as well. When one of my

570
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 5: producers she was off to go and see or not

571
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 5: to typecast, but she was going to go and see

572
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 5: Wicked while her husband was going to go and see

573
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 5: Gladiator Too.

574
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,479
Speaker 8: Everyone there's something for everyone. And then there's the family

575
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 8: formula with Mahana two. So we're all satiated.

576
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 10: Caroline. I think you nailed it right there.

577
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 12: We have something there for every type of audience at

578
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 12: the movies this weekend. The Gladiator to opening weekend's opening

579
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 12: weekend audience was sixty one percent male, for Wicked seventy

580
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 12: two percent female, and obviously, family audiences are coming out

581
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 12: to support Moana to on mass. This weekend, those three

582
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 12: movies occupy seventy five percent of all showtimes in North

583
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 12: America according to our data at the Box Office Company.

584
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 12: That's a massive response from theaters to the overwhelming demand

585
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 12: from audience is to watch these movies in theaters.

586
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: So Daniel give us a sense of maybe how the

587
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 2: Hollywood movie make he moguls out in LA. How are

588
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: they thinking about the theater release window versus the streaming

589
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 2: and all that kind of stuff today versus pandemic? Is

590
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: it still what it used to be or is it

591
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: a different world?

592
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 10: It's different from twenty nineteen. But which industry isn't right?

593
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 12: The big lesson I think that the entire industry in

594
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 12: Hollywood has learned is the overwhelming role that a theatrical

595
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 12: release has in promoting your title downstream. So streaming is

596
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 12: still very important, but that theatrical performance is crucial. Let's

597
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 12: take Mona two for example, a year ago today, that

598
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 12: was supposed to be a Disney Plus animated series just

599
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 12: for streaming. Today this is a billion dollar plus global

600
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 12: box office hit for Disney. Disney now with two huge

601
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 12: animated movies, one earlier this year, inside Out two, this

602
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 12: one Moana two, and then you have other titles like

603
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 12: Deadpool and Wolverine from over the summer and in December,

604
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 12: I fas had that Lion King prequel. You have a

605
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 12: lot of energy from Disney to go big on theatrical

606
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 12: and we see the box office numbers to back that up.

607
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: Hey, Dan, I'd listened to some of the conference calls

608
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 2: from some of the big media companies that Disney's, the

609
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: Warner Brothers, they're kind of pointing us to twenty twenty

610
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: five is a really big theatrical release year, you know,

611
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: do in large part to some of the writers and

612
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 2: actor strikes that push some production out.

613
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 7: Talk to us about next.

614
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,959
Speaker 10: Year, Paul, I think you're absolutely right on that.

615
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 12: If we look at the at the last four years

616
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 12: in production, Hollywood hasn't had an uninterrupted year in their

617
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 12: production capabilities since twenty nineteen. You had the pandemic in

618
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 12: twenty and the strikes last year. Twenty twenty four is

619
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 12: the first full year of production in Hollywood.

620
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 10: Since twenty nineteen.

621
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 12: So twenty five is going to be a huge bounce

622
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 12: back for the theatrical industry. We're right now forecasting between

623
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 12: nine point five and ten billion dollars in box office

624
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 12: in twenty five and in twenty six we have a

625
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 12: ceiling of eleven billion dollars. That benchmark that this industry

626
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 12: hit in the latter half of the twenty tens.

627
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 8: What is spending like when you're actually going to the theater?

628
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 10: I'm sorry, what is suspending like?

629
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, people like embracing it wholeheartedly. How much of margin

630
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 5: is accrued to those that are running them movies as

631
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 5: well as making them.

632
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 12: I think you're seeing a lot more embrace from movie

633
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 12: theaters right now in reinvesting back in their theaters to

634
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 12: make sure that that experience is as perfect as possible

635
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 12: for the audiences. Let's face it, the technology we have

636
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 12: at home is great, so the theatrical experience has really

637
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 12: invested a lot in making that experience, either inside of

638
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 12: the auditorium in advancements inside and sound, or in the

639
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 12: lobbies with alcoholic beverages or expanded menus, in making that

640
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 12: more of that experience, and I think audiences are responding

641
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 12: to that. You listen to some of those conference calls

642
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 12: that Paul was saying a second ago. On the movie

643
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 12: theater side, you're seeing huge margins on the spending side,

644
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 12: on food and beverage that's been a big, big uptick

645
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 12: since the pandemic, and formats like premium format that means

646
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 12: our friend over at Imax or at a Dolby or

647
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 12: other of those companies with a higher ticket price. Consumers

648
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 12: are looking for that to have the best possible experience

649
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 12: at the movies.

650
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 5: The thing is for a Gladiator two or for a Wicked.

651
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 5: These movies in particular cost a lot to make, and

652
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 5: I'm interested as to the marketing spend that's gone with

653
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 5: Wicked or the shit technology effort that was needed with

654
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 5: a Gladiator two. Are they making that money back? And

655
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 5: then some how much are they managing to crack the

656
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 5: code that the movie that they spend a lot on

657
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 5: is the one that they bring in a lot of

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00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 5: money on.

659
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 12: Carolyn, What you just said right now, I think is

660
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 12: a big reason why these studios are highlighting and emphasizing

661
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 12: a theatrical release. The more release windows you have in

662
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 12: different formats, the more of a possibility you have to

663
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 12: break even and make more money over the lifetime of

664
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 12: a film. If you go to streaming too early, or

665
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 12: if you only did streaming, you only.

666
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 10: Have one revenue cycle.

667
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 12: There one small window to get there with the theatrical release,

668
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 12: you could have three months of success at the box

669
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 12: office and from there have that amplify your marketing when

670
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 12: it goes into streaming to have that second dip in

671
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 12: the revenues. So having a long life cycle for films

672
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 12: is crucial, and that's why I think a lot of

673
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 12: movies and a lot of studios have gone back to

674
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 12: this windowing a theatrical first and streaming second to make

675
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 12: sure they can hit the numbers they need for their shareholders.

676
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 7: Dane talk to us about China.

677
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 2: Before the pandemic, China was rivaling North American terms of

678
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 2: total box office.

679
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 7: It was really a gold mine for Hollywood. Is that

680
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 7: still the case.

681
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 12: You know, I don't think it has as much of

682
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 12: a role as it did in the pre pandemic era. Obviously,

683
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 12: the pandemic raised a lot of question marks on who

684
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 12: was going to be the box office king. But really

685
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 12: from the studios, what we've seen is less of an

686
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 12: emphasis to make sure that they lock down that Chinese release.

687
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,719
Speaker 12: It's just such a gamble, Paul. You don't know what

688
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 12: you're going to get from a release in that market.

689
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 12: If you get it, it's great. A movie like the

690
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 12: third installment of the Venom series is doing fantastically in

691
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 12: China right now, but it's far from a guarantee. I

692
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 12: think studios agree that having a strong domestic release and

693
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 12: the reliable turnout from overseas audiences and markets in Europe,

694
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 12: Latin America and in other markets in Asia, that's still

695
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 12: the winning formula for most movies.

696
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 8: What about AI and whether it will be a doctor next.

697
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 12: Year huge talking point, right I think that's still up

698
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 12: in the air. There's a lot of things that we

699
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 12: need to figure out, and what that means for actors,

700
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 12: what that means in labor relations, a big part of

701
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 12: the strikes last year. We're around these questions. Like in

702
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 12: many industries, AI has a lot of potential. I'm not

703
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 12: sure it's a reality just yet.

704
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 5: I have so much more to debate on all of that.

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00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 5: We thank you so much for joining us. Daniel Laurier,

706
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 5: Senior Vice president of Content Strategy and editorial director at

707
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 5: The Box Office Company, making us all want to go

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00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 5: out and watch some movies.

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00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:02,280
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710
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,680
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00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,080
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00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,799
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713
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