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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. It

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Speaker 1: is a massive week of issuance. Over the next three days,

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Speaker 1: we will have two hundred and fifty eight billion dollars

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Speaker 1: worth of supply from the Treasury, record issuance of three

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Speaker 1: and six month bills. Three month bills worth fifty one

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Speaker 1: billion dollars, six month bills for forty five billion dollars,

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Speaker 1: both unprecedented in their size. So let's ask what price

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Speaker 1: will the tready get for them? Joe, I guess now

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Speaker 1: is Jack Alvin Here is Crescent found ending partner and

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Speaker 1: chief investment officer. Jack Great cant shop with you on

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Speaker 1: a on a newly founded firm as well, So congratulations

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Speaker 1: to that, Jack Caplin. Let's just get to the bond

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Speaker 1: market if we can, first a huge week of issuance.

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Speaker 1: What price is the Treasury're gonna have to cough up

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Speaker 1: for that much supply They've already had to suffer with

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Speaker 1: a higher than expected yield on the tenure when they

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Speaker 1: came a week or two ago. Uh. Supply is an

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Speaker 1: issue at least near term. Longer term, however, and I

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Speaker 1: think that you know, remember we have to keep in

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Speaker 1: mind that the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan

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Speaker 1: are still pedal the metal monetary policy. UH. And it's remarkable,

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Speaker 1: but over two trillion dollars of printed money has found

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Speaker 1: its way in the financial system over the last twelve months,

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Speaker 1: so there's still a tailwind of buying going on from

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Speaker 1: the central Bank. It's two ninety enough on a US

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Speaker 1: tenure to attract foreign capital at a time when the

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Speaker 1: budget deficit is seemingly getting wider and wide. To Jack Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I think if you look at the

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Speaker 1: ten your treasury, it tends to track at least over

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Speaker 1: time before two thousand nine, tends to track nominal GDP.

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Speaker 1: If I take a snapshot of nominal GDP right now,

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Speaker 1: it's about four percent. So I think fair value on

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Speaker 1: the ten years four not two point nine. UM. So

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Speaker 1: we at some point, I think we have to migrate

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Speaker 1: our way back to four. And if that happens, then

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Speaker 1: the premium that equities have enjoyed over that bond. UH

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Speaker 1: price has has has to come down. So the big

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Speaker 1: night that came from Andrew Sheets over a Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 1: that is one of the most red stories on the Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: He's basically with you. We've had the appet size, with

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Speaker 1: the potential damage that high yields can do to the

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Speaker 1: equity market, the main course is still to come. What's

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Speaker 1: your base case of what the main course looks like,

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Speaker 1: Jack Well, I would say a lot of it just

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Speaker 1: depends on what the European Central Bank and the Bank

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Speaker 1: of Japan ultimately do. E c B has said they're

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Speaker 1: going to continue its current policy through the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. Bank in Japan hasn't really articulated any specific

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Speaker 1: plan UH and as they start to pull back, I

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Speaker 1: quite honestly, I also think that the tenure treasury is

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Speaker 1: probably more closely linked to the German bond than it

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Speaker 1: is to the Fed funds rate. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that um that as that Fed funds rate rises, if

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Speaker 1: we don't see a concombinant rise in the bond, we

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Speaker 1: could invert the yield curve in inadvertently, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's something power has to pay attention what I keep

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Speaker 1: hearing again and again, Jack, is this is okay so

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Speaker 1: long as the move higher is slow and gradual and

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Speaker 1: treasury yields. Would you say a doubling at the front

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Speaker 1: end on a two year note over just five months

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Speaker 1: it's slow and gradual, because that's probably not what I

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Speaker 1: would define as slow and gradual. This has actually been

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Speaker 1: quite quick through September, from around two percent on a

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Speaker 1: ten year through to two ninety where we are now

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Speaker 1: and at doubling on a two year note yielding just

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Speaker 1: five months. That ain't slow and grandtual. No. I mean

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Speaker 1: the fact that even the tenure was was pushing two percent,

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Speaker 1: uh you know, six not more than six months ago. Um,

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Speaker 1: so we have a spike there. You know. It reminds

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Speaker 1: when the Fed doubled the overnight right from three to

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Speaker 1: six percent in a period of of twelve months. And

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Speaker 1: of course we had Orange County, California, we had some

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Speaker 1: mortgage problems. It was too too much, too fast, Jack, Kevin,

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Speaker 1: let's fold in the news right now. We have a

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Speaker 1: mega merger in retail in America. This morning, the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal reporting that Albertson's, which you and I know

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Speaker 1: is a iconic Western Grocer Private owned by Cerberus among others,

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Speaker 1: is going to do a bolt on with right aid,

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Speaker 1: right age. Shareholders will own twenty eight to twenty nine

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Speaker 1: point six percent of the new company the dominant company

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Speaker 1: buys in the publicly traded small company. We've seen this

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Speaker 1: before and what it amounts to is corporations desperate for

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Speaker 1: revenue growth in this word scale. You're expert of this.

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Speaker 1: You you know, you've been known for decades to have

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Speaker 1: the idea of folding our economics into where we are

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Speaker 1: right now. Is this a scale decade? I think it is. Tom.

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Speaker 1: The fact is that the pie is not growing fast enough, uh,

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Speaker 1: to um satisfy shareholders, to satisfy management, to satisfy anybody,

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Speaker 1: and so um, you know, the next best thing is

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Speaker 1: to increase the pie slice. Um. Best way to do

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Speaker 1: it is to grow faster than than what the pie

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Speaker 1: is allowing. Is is acquisition, I mean within the press release, John,

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Speaker 1: and it goes on forever and ever. Ever. This is

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Speaker 1: a well thought up plan of synergy, which is again,

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Speaker 1: we can't make it the way we are. We've got

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Speaker 1: a mate. We you know, forget about the names. We've

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Speaker 1: got a mate. We've got a bond to get revenue

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Speaker 1: growth that's six seven, eight nine, and then work down

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Speaker 1: the income statement from there. That's all this is about. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and it's a first of all, a very thinly margin

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Speaker 1: business to begin with. And so uh you know that

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Speaker 1: that that's problematic too, of course, right a wider margins

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Speaker 1: uh than a grocer. But uh still, and I will

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Speaker 1: say that it also had the Amazon effect that created problems. John,

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Speaker 1: it's some eighty billion, eighty three billion, and is is

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Speaker 1: Jack mentions they come down to about eight nine. But

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Speaker 1: of the three point seven billion, is I love this John,

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Speaker 1: run rate cost synergy. I thought we had a rule

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg's surveilance that we didn't use the word corporate

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Speaker 1: spaces one of job cuts and slashing costs. So we

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Speaker 1: staid in the cost stripping business in twenty eight Saint Jack, No,

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Speaker 1: I think we I I will say that companies have

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Speaker 1: a scene a remarkable amount of pricing power, much more

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Speaker 1: so than I would have expected recently. You know, of

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Speaker 1: course we're starting that's the pricing how a chat that's

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Speaker 1: gonna be surprising to a lot of paper well pricing

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Speaker 1: path it's gonna come around where we start running out

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Speaker 1: of capacity trucking, for example, we're running out of trucking capacity. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Shipping prices are are rising. Amazon is gonna try to

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Speaker 1: fight back with its own aircraft and infrastructure. Well, I understand, Jack.

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Speaker 1: Can I apologize to jump in that supply constraints, I

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Speaker 1: get that, But pricing power usually assumes this tolerance on

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Speaker 1: the other side. I don't see where the tolerance is

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Speaker 1: on the other side, it's the tolerance for higher prices,

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Speaker 1: don't I'm not sure. I mean, I do think that

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Speaker 1: consumers and businesses are are used to continually lower prices,

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Speaker 1: but we also haven't been in an environment where we

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Speaker 1: we are bumping against supply constraints. So uh, in in

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Speaker 1: a world where we're now growing faster than potential GDP

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Speaker 1: is probably the third quarter where we're outstripping our our

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Speaker 1: potential run rate, we are starting to use up capacity.

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Speaker 1: And that's really what I'm on the lookout for. The

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Speaker 1: fact is that if we do start running out of

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Speaker 1: capacity in certain parts of the market, Yeah, maybe labor

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Speaker 1: um maybe its certainly as as I mentioned trucking, but

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Speaker 1: other productive capacity we could see higher prices and so

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Speaker 1: so a question we usually lean on in this program,

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Speaker 1: and others are on Bloomberg is the optimal cool option

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Speaker 1: on inflation this year? What is it? Is it something

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Speaker 1: as vanilla as tips or is there something else you

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Speaker 1: need to do? Jack to already hedge that exposure. The

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Speaker 1: potential that you do get a pop pie in prices

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Speaker 1: this year, Well, I think it all depends on how

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Speaker 1: bonds react, if if if bonds overshoot inflation, which I

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Speaker 1: expect they will, unless the central banks continue to hold

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Speaker 1: rates lower than they should, Um, we will see real

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Speaker 1: rates rise. We will say, well, we will see uh,

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Speaker 1: potentially equity premium fall uh. And so in an environment

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Speaker 1: like that, you want to own, you know, things related

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Speaker 1: to commodities like master limited partnerships. Remarkably, of all the

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Speaker 1: incomasca classes, master partnerships actually have a positive correlation to

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Speaker 1: interest rates. Interesting. Jack Amplerman is the Crescent founding partner

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Speaker 1: and chief investment officer. Let's not guess in the politics

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Speaker 1: of our nation. He knows that it's February twelfth. In

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Speaker 1: February two, Greg val joins us with Horizon, and that's

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Speaker 1: what's right now. Greg, We've got to go to jerrymandering.

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Speaker 1: Mr Jerry of Salem Massachusetts. We all understand it's nationwide,

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Speaker 1: it's Pennsylvania unique and it's jerrymandering. Or will there be

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Speaker 1: other Pennsylvania's where the courts say you've got to redraw

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Speaker 1: the map. Well, Pennsylvania, Tom was uniquely blatant with their

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Speaker 1: jerryman Just look at the map and it's like it's crazy.

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Speaker 1: So I do think they stand out, but there will

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Speaker 1: be other states. And in general, this trend of maybe

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Speaker 1: dealing with jerry mandering will help the Democrats. Within your

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Speaker 1: note today, and you don't talk specifically about this, but

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Speaker 1: you're so up to speed, we're gonna do it. Lay

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Speaker 1: out the special elections is we get to summer when

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Speaker 1: the campaigns really heat up for November of two thousand eighteen. Well,

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Speaker 1: first of all, the big story is Republican retirements. They're

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Speaker 1: up to about thirty now, which is very unusually high,

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Speaker 1: indicating there's a lot of House Republicans who do not

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Speaker 1: want to serve under Nancy Pelosi if she returns as speaker.

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Speaker 1: So you do see a lot of retirements, and you

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Speaker 1: do see some special elections, and so far, in general,

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Speaker 1: the special elections have broken for the party that has

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Speaker 1: the most motivated voters in that party is a Democrat.

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Speaker 1: That's right where I wanted to go. I put out

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Speaker 1: a tweet this weekend about turnout, and you know where

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Speaker 1: we want to be a political here at Bloomberg Surveillance,

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Speaker 1: we try and full disclosure. We fail at that sometimes, folks.

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Speaker 1: But but but within this is the turnout? What is

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Speaker 1: the turnout dynamic you see in your research? Greg, Well,

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Speaker 1: you certainly start in Virginia the goobernatorial race. Alabama's Senate

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Speaker 1: race was kind of flukey. That judge was pretty weird.

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Speaker 1: But I think in most races we've seen so far

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Speaker 1: show there are a lot of angry women, angry people

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Speaker 1: of color, angry young people as we're seeing with guns,

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Speaker 1: and they tend to break for the Democrats. Some would

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Speaker 1: suggest our president is angry. Maybe all would suggest that

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Speaker 1: how is his advice this week, General Kelly have any

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Speaker 1: impact with an angry president. I think the General has

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Speaker 1: had decreased clout is halo has slipped, and I think

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Speaker 1: Trump was almost unsupervised this weekend where he went on

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Speaker 1: just a rant, a Twitter storm rant for the entire weekend. Uh,

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Speaker 1: he has to show some sign. I talked to Republicans

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Speaker 1: who say, he's got to show some sign of displeasure

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Speaker 1: over what the Russians have done. He blames everybody, but

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Speaker 1: doesn't blame Russia for hacking into our election last fall. So, Greg,

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Speaker 1: big question, when is the gip with the president? If

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Speaker 1: it's home, they're too chicken, Jonathan, I think that they

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Speaker 1: talked to their voters back home, and we all have

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Speaker 1: to remember Trump has about approval among Republicans, so a

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Speaker 1: lot of Republicans are scared to do anything. And to

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Speaker 1: be fair, they're also hoping that by Labor Day this

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Speaker 1: economy will look even stronger because people have more money

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Speaker 1: in their pockets. And are you going to see that

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Speaker 1: tax cup in the mid terms. You're going to see

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Speaker 1: them come up in the numbers. Absolutely. There's a new

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Speaker 1: poll out now showing a slim majority of Americans now

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Speaker 1: support the tax cup. The number has been going straight

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Speaker 1: up for the last few weeks. I think the White

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Speaker 1: House is counting on GDP of three or better, unemployment

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Speaker 1: under under four, and I think that could help them

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Speaker 1: in the fall. Despite all of these motivated voters for

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Speaker 1: the Democrats you mentioned earlier, did the House Democrat would

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Speaker 1: you explain to our global audience why this Senate isn't

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Speaker 1: part of the VILLI a mass. Sure, it's sort of

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Speaker 1: a fluke. As we all know, one third of the

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Speaker 1: Senate is up every two years. It just so happens

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Speaker 1: that the third three seats that are up this time

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Speaker 1: have our twenty five Democrats, including ten in states that

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Speaker 1: Trump carried, including five and states that Trump won in

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Speaker 1: a landslide. So just based on who's up, the Republicans

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Speaker 1: have a decent chance. Then does that mean the Senate

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Speaker 1: is more in play in two thousand twenty? Is it's

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Speaker 1: one in twenty, there would be an opportunity for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: But it's just a it's a weird break right now,

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Speaker 1: greg I. One, you're insight on one thing and it

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Speaker 1: came up at the back end of last week and

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Speaker 1: it it breads some life into this week as well.

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Speaker 1: Mitt Romney, how does that change things if it's all

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Speaker 1: and what you'll read on what's going going on there?

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Speaker 1: You know we've all been to weddings where people at

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Speaker 1: the reception have looked at the bride groom and said

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Speaker 1: this is not going to last. This is one that

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Speaker 1: will not last. I think it's it's just a matter

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Speaker 1: of time. Guys, before Romney and Trump get into a

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Speaker 1: big tweet storm. You can just see that one coming.

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Speaker 1: Oh my word, therapy with Dr Greg this morning, Bob John,

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Speaker 1: Please so Greg, if it's not gonna last, I just

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Speaker 1: wonder what it means. Does it change the calculus on

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Speaker 1: what they can and can't get done if Romney gets

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Speaker 1: in I don't think so. Let me make two really

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Speaker 1: quick points. Even if the Republicans lose both houses, Trump

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Speaker 1: still has his zto. That's why the market shouldn't worry

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Speaker 1: too much if the Democrats have a big, big election.

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Speaker 1: You know. The other thing is that I think when

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Speaker 1: you've got someone like Romney as maybe a lightning rod,

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Speaker 1: the chances that he could take out Trump, I mean

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Speaker 1: the same as the chances for k Sake or Flake.

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Speaker 1: The base would never go along with Mitt. Romney has

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Speaker 1: a replacement for Trump, and I think everybody in the

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Speaker 1: party knows that. But John's a good question on the

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Speaker 1: governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the Olympian from Utah. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Where are the moderate Republicans now? I mean, Mitt Romney's

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Speaker 1: got a certain cachet, do what he wants. What are

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Speaker 1: the mere mortals of the moderate Republican Party do. They're adrift,

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Speaker 1: and you know, there's no place for them to go.

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Speaker 1: The Chamber of Commerce, pro business, pro free trade program

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Speaker 1: controlled moderate Republicans are becoming an anachronism. There aren't enough

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Speaker 1: of them. The base of the party hates them. So

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Speaker 1: where do they go? I mean, I could be after

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Speaker 1: three glasses of wine, I could be persuaded that we

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Speaker 1: might get a third party. But you know, Michael Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: is probably too old. He's seventy four. We can't comment

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Speaker 1: on that. This program, we can't do that. Surveillance trap door.

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Speaker 1: I got you, I got you, Greg. Yeah, let's get

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Speaker 1: out of trouble quickly and move on to to what

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Speaker 1: we could get in terms of policy. Who's going to

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Speaker 1: inherit the fiscal discipline position? And does the fiscal discipline

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Speaker 1: position win you any budge these dice? No, it really doesn't.

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Speaker 1: I mean, no one can see what bad things the

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Speaker 1: deficit can do. I would argue in two or three years,

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Speaker 1: but be crowding out bond markets, vigilantes all that stuff.

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Speaker 1: But for right now, everybody says, hey, the stock and

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Speaker 1: bond markets look pretty good. They're fat and happy. Why

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Speaker 1: should we care? So who was to take on that

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Speaker 1: thankless task being the prescriptions we all know are curves, security, curb, medicare.

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Speaker 1: Nobody wants to do that, Greg, Thank you for the briefing. Greg,

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Speaker 1: alright with us today and Bloomberg, it's just a huge yeah.

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Speaker 1: We can. We can have him back, We can want exception.

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Speaker 1: It is good after the uproar of the last eleven

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Speaker 1: days to have a modest quiet and we do that

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Speaker 1: with Sam Stovill of c f A. Sam, would you

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Speaker 1: learn in the last week and a half? Good morning, Tom, Well,

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Speaker 1: what I learned is at the mark it does tend

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Speaker 1: to look forward bottoms um. Sometimes they're simply relief rallies,

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Speaker 1: as we might have gotten last week. But then typically

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Speaker 1: what we do is retest those loaves to see if

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Speaker 1: they indeed are the lows for this correction. Do you

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Speaker 1: believe in technical analysis, I mean your standardum Poor's heritage

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Speaker 1: is fundamental based, outlook based, five star based, and that

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Speaker 1: the charts matter. To Sam stoval yes they do. I

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Speaker 1: think that fundamentals tell you what, but technicals tell you

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Speaker 1: when and how far. So the combination of the two,

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Speaker 1: and I also like to add history as a third

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Speaker 1: element to help to sort of read the tea leaves

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Speaker 1: of the market. Mr Fox agree with what Mr Stovall

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Speaker 1: said there with the wisdom he learned from his father,

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Speaker 1: I would say fundamentals, technicals, history, maybe adding a little

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Speaker 1: economics to that's a Himan way. Okay, I was going

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Speaker 1: to add in behavioral sam because I'm just I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to understand why we're not hearing more calls to sell

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Speaker 1: into the rally in equities. Well, I think because people

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Speaker 1: have been convincing themselves for so long that we are

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Speaker 1: in need of a correction, and indeed we were. We

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Speaker 1: went the longest stretch since World War Two, five hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty four calendar days without a decline of five

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Speaker 1: or more, and it was just a matter of time.

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Speaker 1: But I think most people say we don't see a

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Speaker 1: recession on the horizon, and we are among those. So

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Speaker 1: as a result of the feeling, is you want to

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Speaker 1: be buying into this kind of a decline? Uh? The

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Speaker 1: real question is how low will it go? No? But

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Speaker 1: I want to know, Okay, buy into the decline. I

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Speaker 1: get that you know you buy the dips. I've heard

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Speaker 1: that you know a bazillion times, But I'm just trying

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Speaker 1: to understand how come you don't hear the calls for

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Speaker 1: sell into the rally and come back and play another day. Well,

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Speaker 1: I guess it all depends on what your overall approaches.

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Speaker 1: As Tom had mentioned. You know, I've come from an

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Speaker 1: S ANDP heritage which looks a year out. We don't

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Speaker 1: look a week out, so we're not going to be

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Speaker 1: able to time when to get out one to get

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Speaker 1: in in simply a matter of days. I mean, you've

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Speaker 1: got your traders who can do that, but that's not

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Speaker 1: our forte Okay, But I guess what I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: understand is it always seems time to buy, it never

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Speaker 1: seems time to sell. And that might be great if

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Speaker 1: your time horizon is indefinite, but if you're looking to

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Speaker 1: actually pay for things like tuition or retirement or a home,

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Speaker 1: you need cash at those moments where you've got to

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Speaker 1: write the big check in particularly if you're buying something

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Speaker 1: like a house, you want to take advantage. Unfortunately, if

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Speaker 1: someone else is misfortune and you want to make your

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Speaker 1: money when you make the purchase, not when you sell it.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, that's a good point. As Tom had

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Speaker 1: mentioned before about technical analysis, I learned a lot from

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Speaker 1: Mark Arbiter, somebody who used to work at S and P,

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Speaker 1: and he likes to look at moving averages that tend

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Speaker 1: to cross one another. Seventeen three in particular, the seventeen

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Speaker 1: week moving average breaking below the forty three week moving average.

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Speaker 1: That gave him a longer term perspective as to our

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Speaker 1: heading into very challenge. We had did not see that

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Speaker 1: this time. We did see that in January of two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight, however, so it did give you a

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Speaker 1: pretty good lead time into the financial mega meltdown. So

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Speaker 1: what are you looking at right now? What are the

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Speaker 1: areas of the market that you think of the most underpriced? Well,

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Speaker 1: I wrote an article a couple of weeks ago that

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Speaker 1: talked about, UM, what you want to do as you

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Speaker 1: go for those areas that actually lost the most UH

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Speaker 1: in the overall decline. UH areas such as technology, consumer discretionary,

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Speaker 1: which were beaten up the most because investors had the

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Speaker 1: greatest number of profits that they could take from those groups.

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Speaker 1: And as a result, I think you want to be

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Speaker 1: buying into those companies. So areas where we have favorable

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Speaker 1: stock recommendations, and these are companies with consistent track records

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Speaker 1: of raising earnings and dividends would include companies like um

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Speaker 1: Walt Disney, would also include Comcast foot Locker, UM Window Worldwide.

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Speaker 1: So our belief is that you can take advantage of

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Speaker 1: some cyclical sectors at this point, uh and buy into them,

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Speaker 1: especially when they offer lower beta and higher quality of earnings.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly, Sam, what about rebalancing the portfolio? Do

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Speaker 1: you find that people have been doing that consistently? Um?

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Speaker 1: I think that it's one of those things that if

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Speaker 1: you are too afraid to buy, but you also realize

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Speaker 1: you don't want to be selling, by engaging and rebalancing,

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Speaker 1: you're sort of forcing yourself to to do that. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And if nothing else, it's a behavioral thing because it

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Speaker 1: helps an investor to say, say, I'm actually doing something

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Speaker 1: during this decline, but I'm not really messing up my portfolio. Sam, So, well,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate that up to here

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Speaker 1: eleven days and it's been very kind of him to

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Speaker 1: join us here we roop up the script and migrate

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Speaker 1: to Washington or Chief Washington correspondent Kevin so really is

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Speaker 1: within Mike Ellen's note this morning, Mr Mueller works fast. Kevin,

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Speaker 1: what does it say that Mr Mueller seems to be

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Speaker 1: doing an indictment or an allegation charges every other day

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Speaker 1: or maybe every third day. What is that signal? Who

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Speaker 1: signals that they have essentially build a case. Look headline's

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Speaker 1: crossing terminal down that Rick Gates. You'll remember the deputy

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Speaker 1: the Paul mana FOURT Trump campaign manager, charge of inspiring

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Speaker 1: against the United States. His right hand man, Rick Gates

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Speaker 1: is also charged and that round of charges he's gonna

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Speaker 1: plead guilty in the next couple of days. That suggests

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Speaker 1: that Rick Gates is totally cooperating with the authorities, with

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Speaker 1: Thought Mueller's team and could potentially, you know, provide information

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Speaker 1: against Palm Maniport or against the administration officials. There's also

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Speaker 1: another associate names in this latest round of charges who

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Speaker 1: essentially is gonna be wrapped up in the Ukraine money

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Speaker 1: laundering connected to Paul Maniport. So it appears, based on

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Speaker 1: these latest round of charges that the Mollo probe is

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Speaker 1: really intensifying and building a case against Manifoard, which from

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Speaker 1: a political standpoint, if you're the Trump administration, still doesn't

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Speaker 1: penetrate the inner circle as a now and on Friday,

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Speaker 1: you know, we all we all remember that of the

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Speaker 1: Russian uh as now it still hasn't penetrated into the

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Speaker 1: inner circle as fits well within that And again David

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Speaker 1: Voracious writing it up. Scanner's lawyer charged with role in

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Speaker 1: US Russia probe. Alex vanders One who has been very

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Speaker 1: visible in Ukrainian debates on money moving around, charged in

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Speaker 1: federal court in Washington. And this is and again drawing

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine that he helped prepare on the trial of

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian politician Yulia timos Chenko and the key sentence. Kevin Crelli.

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Speaker 1: Vander Swan was charged with a quote criminal information unquote,

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Speaker 1: which typically precedes a guilty plea. How would you assume

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Speaker 1: that the President's attorneys or administration attorneys react to this

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Speaker 1: or do they just ignore it because it's they're not

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Speaker 1: touched by this? I won't. I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 1: bad news for Paul Maniport, and I think we should

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Speaker 1: we should know. I mean, Paul Maniport is the former

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Speaker 1: campaign manager of the President of the United States too,

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Speaker 1: and the campaign manager was charged with conspiring against the

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Speaker 1: United States. I mean, let's just like that in and

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Speaker 1: of itself is a very serious charge. Obviously, but you're

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Speaker 1: right to your point, and I don't you know when

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Speaker 1: we covering this, you know this time I hate to

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Speaker 1: speculate about like where this is going to go, but

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Speaker 1: as of today, I mean, it's it's important note none

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Speaker 1: of these charges touched the inner circle, and none of

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Speaker 1: nothing in that thirty plus page document on Friday touched

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Speaker 1: the inner circle. But how the administration is responding to

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Speaker 1: what the intelligence community has found, which is a a

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Speaker 1: well orchestrated cyber attack on a democratic institution, on Silicon Valiance.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I just haven't seen a core, accorded, organized

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Speaker 1: response and that is something that Americans can take, whether

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Speaker 1: or not the acid in a moren issue in the

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Speaker 1: midsterm So I do think there's no timetable on this.

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Speaker 1: Remember James Comey, who, by the way, it's coming out

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Speaker 1: with a book next month. Uh. Having released these types

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Speaker 1: of finding a couple of days before the election, where

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Speaker 1: in a situation and an environment where a Mueller indictment

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Speaker 1: could drop any second of any day. Kevin CURRELLI do

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Speaker 1: we know the extent of the interest of Robert Muller

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Speaker 1: in scatting arms because it wasn't Paul Man of Furt

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Speaker 1: the person that arranged for scatting arms to put together

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Speaker 1: a report that was used by Victor Janakovich. This was

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Speaker 1: the Russian Aligne president of the Ukraine to justify the

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Speaker 1: jailing of a political rival. Yes, so yes, So essentially

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Speaker 1: you had a situation where Paul Manaford was working with

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Speaker 1: the pro Russian factions of the Ukraine and the the

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Speaker 1: individual charge today whose name I'm not gonna butcher is

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Speaker 1: Um because I'm literally walking into the White House. Um

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Speaker 1: is the person who helps to range those financial dealings.

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Speaker 1: And so again, the you're you're outside of Washington, if

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Speaker 1: you're trying to figure out where this is all headed,

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Speaker 1: there's an intense focus on uh, the former campaign manager

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Speaker 1: of the President of the United States, I mean, press

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Speaker 1: Kevin that you're walking to the White House instead of

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Speaker 1: taking the surveillance Sikorski. That's always uh noted. One more

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Speaker 1: one more question, Kevin, if we could, you're walking towards

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Speaker 1: the White House. Who is advising the president this morning

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Speaker 1: at the White House? Does General Kelly still have critical mass?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I thought it was interesting over the weekend

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Speaker 1: was to see the President tret out a criticism of

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Speaker 1: Secretary Maddis for his public speech that he gave on

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Speaker 1: Saturday saying that Russian clearly had um a concerted effort

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Speaker 1: to medal in the two thousand and sixteen elections. President

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Speaker 1: treated right after that speech criticism of him, saying, well,

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Speaker 1: what he forgot to mention was that there was no

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Speaker 1: collusion that would suggest that he since turned his ire

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Speaker 1: and his latest jury of the day fire and fury

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Speaker 1: for act of a better time on UM on that

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Speaker 1: Secretary maddist as opposed to General Kelly. So maybe you

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Speaker 1: know how this guy is. When you're at the dog house,

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Speaker 1: you're out of the dog house. Yeah, who's up and

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Speaker 1: who's down? It looks like General Kelly has for now survived.

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Speaker 1: We will see Kevin Surli. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: the briefing. I'm here. I'm sure folks across our Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: platforms today we'll hear much more from Mr sir. Really,

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Speaker 1: thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene Before

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Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: radio