WEBVTT - Rachel Reeves Calms Some Nerves

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to in the City.

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<v Speaker 1>Each week we unpack a story that's crucial to the

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<v Speaker 1>world's financial capitals. I'm Allegristratton. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has delivered

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<v Speaker 1>her Spring statement, and in Reeves's address to Parliament, she

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<v Speaker 1>said her task is to secure Britain's future in a

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<v Speaker 1>world that is changing before our eyes.

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<v Speaker 2>Mister speaker, the job of a responsible government is not

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<v Speaker 2>simply to watch this change. This moment demands an active government,

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<v Speaker 2>a government not stepping back, but stepping up.

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<v Speaker 1>So this week on the podcast, we are looking at

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<v Speaker 1>whether the government's effort to step up is enough to

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<v Speaker 1>secure the UK economy and whether Britain now has a

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<v Speaker 1>financial plan that factors in the unstable global outlook.

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<v Speaker 3>Welcome to the City of London.

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<v Speaker 2>The City of the City, The City of London.

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<v Speaker 4>Again between and the financial heart of the country.

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<v Speaker 3>The City, the City.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to in the City, then clear of the doors.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm joined by Chief UK Economists with Bloomberg Economics Dan

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<v Speaker 1>Hansen and senior Economics reporter Phil Aldrich. And for those

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<v Speaker 1>that you can't see, which is everyone, They've both been

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<v Speaker 1>on their mobiles.

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<v Speaker 4>Trying to work out what's going on.

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<v Speaker 1>Swopping and sharing.

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<v Speaker 3>Did you see this?

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<v Speaker 1>Did you see that? Okay, I thought there was a

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<v Speaker 1>mini spring in the spring statement. I felt like Rachel

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<v Speaker 1>Reeves seemed quite chipper.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Phil, Yeah, I think it definitely was not the

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<v Speaker 3>sort of gloomy show that we thought it was going

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<v Speaker 3>to be. The growth forecast from the OBR was largely unchanged.

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<v Speaker 3>Right at the end of the forecast. In their tables

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<v Speaker 3>they suggest it's well, they say it's the economy is

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<v Speaker 3>slightly bigger. They did this dynamic scoring on the planning reforms,

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<v Speaker 3>which wasn't predicted. They say that by the end of

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<v Speaker 3>the parliament you'll be getting zero point two percent permanent

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<v Speaker 3>growth as a result of these deregulation early deregulations of

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<v Speaker 3>the planning system. They say that adds one hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>seventy thousand homes you get to one point three million,

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<v Speaker 3>which is not far off their one point five million

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<v Speaker 3>home target. So those are really positive things for the markets.

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<v Speaker 3>The big thing was her headroom had disappeared was actually

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<v Speaker 3>it was pretty nasty. They went from nine point nine

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<v Speaker 3>billion down to four point one billion deficit. The whole

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<v Speaker 3>lot she's made the whole lot back and it didn't

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<v Speaker 3>require quite such severe public service cuts and welfare cuts

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<v Speaker 3>as were expected. There's been a bit of jiggery pokery

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<v Speaker 3>around the changing from current spending that's the day to

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<v Speaker 3>day staff to casual spending. Yeah, so that's some largely

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<v Speaker 3>from aid to defense, which is relatively painless compared with.

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<v Speaker 1>Nasty Tree when you wrote about didn't you.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, trickery wizardry exactly. But ultimately it hasn't been

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<v Speaker 3>quite the horror show that some people were theory.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're all in Bloomberg HQ, not in the

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<v Speaker 1>Commons chamber, and I suspect we'll hear quite quickly from

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<v Speaker 1>our reporters who will be able to see the looks

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<v Speaker 1>on Labor MP's faces, because that was quite striking when

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<v Speaker 1>you see the doughnut around the Chancellor, you've got the

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<v Speaker 1>PM and then the cabinet Minster's either side, and obviously

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<v Speaker 1>their poker face. But it will be interesting to learn whether,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, the mood from the back benches is

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<v Speaker 1>that could have been worse or goodness me, even though

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't as bad as we thought, it's still going

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<v Speaker 1>to hurt in our mailboxes and in our constituents hearts

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<v Speaker 1>and minds. Dan, you're still are you writing? You texting?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you?

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<v Speaker 4>I am looking at the OBR documentary, not texting my wife.

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<v Speaker 1>I wasn't going to suggest that, but you would get

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<v Speaker 1>to grips with it.

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<v Speaker 4>I think feel something up really nicely. I think when

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<v Speaker 4>I listen to it, it feels like the OBR hand

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<v Speaker 4>is her a bit of a gift. To be honest

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<v Speaker 4>with you, I think it's interesting your point about the

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<v Speaker 4>politics of it. If you look at where the cuts

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<v Speaker 4>of land is in terms of getting the headroom back,

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<v Speaker 4>it's really all welfare. There's a bit on departmental spending.

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<v Speaker 4>We thought there would be something there, we thought would

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<v Speaker 4>probably be a little bit more, but actually it's all

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<v Speaker 4>on welfare and that's really interesting. And I mean the

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<v Speaker 4>other thing, I'm not sure how to interpret it at

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<v Speaker 4>the moment, but just getting yourself back to the headroom

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<v Speaker 4>you had exactly to the decimal point that you had

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<v Speaker 4>in October. It feels very much like I'm just gonna

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<v Speaker 4>do the absolute minimum possible here to get myself down

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<v Speaker 4>to the autumn, which is the next staging post. That

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<v Speaker 4>was my takeaway and I think she would have initially thought,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to have to do a lot more here

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<v Speaker 4>on departmental spending. We're going to have the usual questions

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<v Speaker 4>about fiscal fiction. Actually there's been pretty much nothing done

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<v Speaker 4>on it. As a small amount of change in departmental spending,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's not very much. So I think the general

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<v Speaker 4>takeaway is that she has been given For me, at least,

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<v Speaker 4>she's been given a bit of a gift from the OBR.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not going to sort of start we can get

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<v Speaker 4>into this if you want, but whether it's delayed the

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<v Speaker 4>tough choices, whether the OBR might come back in the

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<v Speaker 4>autumn and say, look, the economy isn't as strong as

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<v Speaker 4>we thought. There's a box in the OBR document about

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs and the impact that could have on the economy.

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<v Speaker 4>So all of those things taken together, I think she's

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<v Speaker 4>on the minimum she needed to get through the event.

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<v Speaker 1>For me, the head room being exactly the same is

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<v Speaker 1>interesting because I think it was criticized that it was low,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was low back in November, and then to

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<v Speaker 1>go for the same low number. Is it she's got

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<v Speaker 1>away with the minimum she can do to lessen the

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<v Speaker 1>political pain, or is it she hasn't learned that lesson

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<v Speaker 1>and actually there'll be another physical event in six months

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<v Speaker 1>time that could be yet more painful, and we'll find

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<v Speaker 1>out in the days ahead, which you know, when we

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<v Speaker 1>get the briefing from the Chancellor's team on why they've

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<v Speaker 1>made that judgment. But before we sort of look look ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>you keep saying, the OBI has been very kind to her.

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<v Speaker 1>They've been kind in being dynamic about how they think

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<v Speaker 1>planning reforms will in the end deliver the growth that

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<v Speaker 1>the government wants.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean there are a couple of bits of it,

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<v Speaker 4>so that there's that bit of it which we weren't expecting.

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<v Speaker 4>And we spoke on the podcast previously about all of

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<v Speaker 4>these policies, said it in that speech. They take a

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<v Speaker 4>bit of time and you've got to be patient. And

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<v Speaker 4>sort of point two on the level of the economy

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<v Speaker 4>after five years is it's not very much. It's peanuts.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, it's a rounding error on growth and things

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<v Speaker 4>like that, so it's not very much. So she was

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<v Speaker 4>sort of given a bit of a boost there and

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<v Speaker 4>that actually because of that, it meant that the savings

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<v Speaker 4>she needed to fund and find in terms of spending

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<v Speaker 4>cups were smaller because if the economy is bigger, it

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<v Speaker 4>generates more tax receipts. That's a good news story for her.

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<v Speaker 4>And the other side of it is we've spoken about

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<v Speaker 4>this before as well, is that the Ober is at

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<v Speaker 4>the top end of the pack, if not at the

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<v Speaker 4>top of the pack, when it comes to growth forecasts,

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<v Speaker 4>and that stems from a view about productivity growth. And

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<v Speaker 4>they've sort of made a point in their document that

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<v Speaker 4>they think the level of productivity will be a bit

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<v Speaker 4>lower than they thought in October. But actually if you

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<v Speaker 4>look at the growth numbers, they're still pretty strong. You're

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<v Speaker 4>not shy of two percent in most years, and that

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<v Speaker 4>given recent.

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<v Speaker 3>History, will take that absolutely.

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<v Speaker 4>Absolutely, given recent history, we would definitely take that relative

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<v Speaker 4>to the consensus vieme, certainly relative to our view. So

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<v Speaker 4>I think when you go back to this point of

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<v Speaker 4>moving to the autumn, we'll see what the OBR says.

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<v Speaker 4>They'll have a briefing as well, but whether they're going

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<v Speaker 4>to have sort of look at this in more detail

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<v Speaker 4>over the next six months or so, that's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be something very important to watch as of course, is

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<v Speaker 4>what's going on globally, particularly with the tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the tariff box saying.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's basically I think I can't remember the specific

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<v Speaker 3>but it's basically saying, if we get if you get

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<v Speaker 3>twenty percent, that was, if you get twenty percent of

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs across the world, as Trump is threatening, that'll knock

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<v Speaker 3>one percent off GDP and all her headroom is gone,

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<v Speaker 3>just like that. So Trump will eliminate her headroom again.

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<v Speaker 3>But then there's other mechanisms as well. They say, should

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<v Speaker 3>our productivity forecast be changed and lowered, then you know

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<v Speaker 3>she loses her headroom and more. There's a couple of

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<v Speaker 3>other warnings in there. I think again there's a debt,

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<v Speaker 3>interest risk, et cetera. So they are pointing out again

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<v Speaker 3>that this is this is a tight margin for sort

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<v Speaker 3>of insurance that she's left herself.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the point is it doesn't And of course it

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<v Speaker 4>matters to people's lives whether these things happen, but purely

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of setting fiscal policy, if you set yourself

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<v Speaker 4>or you set aside a big buffer, then whether the

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<v Speaker 4>OBR downgrades productivity forecast, whether the Trump hits US with tariffs,

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<v Speaker 4>you know you're safe. You're not having to go after

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<v Speaker 4>and constantly rebuilding and every physical event is just this

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<v Speaker 4>obsession with the headroom. If you have a broader fiscal

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<v Speaker 4>strategy where you set yourself some money aside, and of

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<v Speaker 4>course you'll come back to me and you'll say, well,

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<v Speaker 4>they can't. They haven't got the options for that. They

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<v Speaker 4>can't raise taxes, spending two time, they won't. They were welfare, welfare,

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<v Speaker 4>welfare cut. I'm just like heading over the past, but

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<v Speaker 4>welfare cuts. They've not gone too far, but they've already

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<v Speaker 4>done that.

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<v Speaker 1>Uctually, she doesn't have.

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<v Speaker 4>You're caught between the politics of it, which goes I

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<v Speaker 4>think is about the nine point nine where we sort

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<v Speaker 4>of started, and that there's just no political appetite to

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<v Speaker 4>go further than that because the choices it involves, and

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<v Speaker 4>you've caught on the other side of all these potential

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<v Speaker 4>economic shocks that could hit you. And I guess the

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<v Speaker 4>path that they think is the path of least resistance

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<v Speaker 4>is that they do increment. They take the government takes

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<v Speaker 4>incremental action at every fiscal event, which is not in

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<v Speaker 4>an ideal world, that's not how you'd set fiscal policy.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you'd like to think she's got a hail Mary,

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<v Speaker 1>she's got something she can see that she can do

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<v Speaker 1>between now and the autumn in order to make that

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<v Speaker 1>not be the case. Phil's raising his eyebrows. The reason

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<v Speaker 1>I'm saying that is because we all know that, because

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<v Speaker 1>of the head round being so small, the story will

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<v Speaker 1>start up tomorrow or right now, what will she do?

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<v Speaker 1>What taxes will she increase? And that isn't just oh,

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<v Speaker 1>how annoying the British press is so annoying, though obviously

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<v Speaker 1>she will be starting to think that. But but it's

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<v Speaker 1>also about confidence, and it's also that people make businesses,

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<v Speaker 1>making families, making choices about the future, which she needs people,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to be quite kind of bullish about.

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<v Speaker 3>That's definitely the risk is that we get back into

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<v Speaker 3>that terrible cycle of like what is she going to

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<v Speaker 3>do next? Then you get up with the policy uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>The fact this time, though, the positive for her this

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<v Speaker 3>time is that the markets have actually responded positively and

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<v Speaker 3>actually imediately. After the budget in October there was a

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<v Speaker 3>big shift up in borrowing costs, which effectively had wiped

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<v Speaker 3>her whole headroom out within days. The reaction this time

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<v Speaker 3>has looks like it's going the other way. So you know,

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<v Speaker 3>if there is a hail Mary. It may be that

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<v Speaker 3>they that the markets are beginning to swing behind the

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<v Speaker 3>labor agenda and that could help her. Obviously, these the

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<v Speaker 3>other things out there in the world that you just

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<v Speaker 3>can't ever plan for this stuff, which is why you do.

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<v Speaker 3>You should have twenty five billion of headroom because it

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<v Speaker 3>gives you enough to absorb any shocks. But if they

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<v Speaker 3>haven't done that, so outside of you know, something external

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<v Speaker 3>which they'll blame on the world is changing as is

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<v Speaker 3>now the repeated mantra, this appears to have been received

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<v Speaker 3>a lot better than October.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned that the labor agenda in the market swinging

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<v Speaker 1>behind it. You guys did this amazing piece of work

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<v Speaker 1>that was in one of our podcasts recently about that's

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<v Speaker 1>the schoolcard, we'll call it, you call it, and you

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<v Speaker 1>gave numbers out of ten for each area, and obviously

0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.360
<v Speaker 1>seven out of ten you gave to planning. And today

0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:01.920
<v Speaker 1>the OBR has kind of done the same.

0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:02.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.960
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely, I mean that was we've been saying for a while.

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<v Speaker 4>Of all the things that labor have they've announced, I personally,

0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:09.480
<v Speaker 4>I think they've announced a lot of positive things. So

0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.240
<v Speaker 4>investment spending, they've lifted that, so it's at least flatter

0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:13.719
<v Speaker 4>as a share of GDP. It was falling as a

0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:17.800
<v Speaker 4>share of the GDP before Planning reform. You know these

0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.560
<v Speaker 4>you obviously have to take it, as we said in

0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:22.679
<v Speaker 4>the scorecards, slightly with a pinch of salt. In the

0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:25.320
<v Speaker 4>getting up to three hundred thousand homes a year is

0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.880
<v Speaker 4>basically doubling the number of homes that are built every year.

0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:32.239
<v Speaker 4>So it's quite a big, big number and a big move. Nonetheless,

0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:35.720
<v Speaker 4>the economic benefit from it, which the OBR have recognized,

0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.319
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's not huge. Point two percent on the

0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.000
<v Speaker 4>level of GDP isn't massive, but it's not nothing. And

0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:45.200
<v Speaker 4>I think the OBR, going back to your point your

0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:48.199
<v Speaker 4>questions fill about questions in Downing Street about the OBR.

0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.360
<v Speaker 4>Are they getting people's backs up? I think they are.

0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:54.680
<v Speaker 4>They have certainly lowered the bar for scoring policies like

0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.160
<v Speaker 4>this and putting it into the forecast, so things like

0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:58.800
<v Speaker 4>planning reform, things like labor supply.

0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 3>So that's new as well, it has.

0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:02.960
<v Speaker 4>Been you over the past few years. So Jeremy Hunt's

0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.120
<v Speaker 4>Knicks cuts they scored positively. Obviously, the flip side of

0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 4>the rise in employer national insurance in October was that

0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 4>they scored that negatively for the economy, but capital expenses

0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:14.640
<v Speaker 4>they scored that positively, sort of in the medium term.

0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:17.240
<v Speaker 4>It's a long term and they hadn't been doing that.

0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 4>So I think they're listening, certainly to the criticisms that

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 4>have been made. But as I said at the start,

0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.640
<v Speaker 4>these things do take time. But I think the planning

0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 4>reform thing, yes, of all the things that have been announced,

0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.559
<v Speaker 4>that's if you're trying to get out of the sort

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.560
<v Speaker 4>of malaise and thinking about that's the most exciting policy

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.120
<v Speaker 4>for me that the labor have announced. They've come out

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 4>and they seem pretty serious about making in roads into

0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:39.520
<v Speaker 4>the planning system.

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.679
<v Speaker 1>As well phil other bits of the schoolcard. Would you

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>make any changes in the quite brutal numbers you go

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:45.920
<v Speaker 1>some of the other bits of the agenda.

0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:49.840
<v Speaker 3>I suppose we could raise the labor market. We had

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.840
<v Speaker 3>score for their efforts to get employment up to eighty percent,

0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 3>And you could say that some of the welfare changes

0:12:56.480 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 3>may deliver some change, some positive change. And I think

0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.960
<v Speaker 3>the OBR has one of the one of the generous

0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.800
<v Speaker 3>gifts that, as Dan put it, that they've given them

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 3>as a sort of better labor market outlook. So they're

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 3>just saying that the picture is generally a little bit

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.439
<v Speaker 3>more positive there, so maybe we could go from one

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.679
<v Speaker 3>to three.

0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:20.319
<v Speaker 1>I suspect that's a pretty good place to leave it.

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.840
<v Speaker 1>And you both have to write now, don't you try

0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:26.200
<v Speaker 1>to hear all right? Dan Hansen, Phil Aldric, thank you

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 1>very much, thanks for listening to this week's In the

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>City from Bloomberg. This episode was hosted by me alegra Stratton.

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.439
<v Speaker 1>It was produced by Summersadi and Moses and Am Sand

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:45.200
<v Speaker 1>designed by Blake Maples. Brendan frantzis Newnham is our executive producer.

0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:49.640
<v Speaker 1>Special thanks to Dan Hanson and Phil Aldric. Please subscribe, rate,

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 1>and review wherever you listen to podcasts.