WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Seema Shah & Michael Ball

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea here is the single best idea.

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<v Speaker 2>Today is one of the most extraordinary groupings of news,

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<v Speaker 2>cacophony of news that I have seen in umpteen decades.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't even describe the multiple big stories that we're

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<v Speaker 2>looking at. I worry about the subsome stories that we're

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<v Speaker 2>not talking about that maybe we should be looking at.

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<v Speaker 2>But the newsflow absolutely overwhelming. Our team doing everything they

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<v Speaker 2>can to try to keep up with the news. Some

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<v Speaker 2>very good work today on the war. Susan Maloney was

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<v Speaker 2>just brilliant out of Foreign Affairs magazine, and all their

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<v Speaker 2>work at Brookings is well pick up on as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Sema Shaw joined from principal asset manager. She was really

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<v Speaker 2>quite good in the global economy. But your Sema Shaw

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<v Speaker 2>and the choice set for central banks.

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<v Speaker 3>They're frozen. I mean, this isn't far too early for

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<v Speaker 3>any central bank to try and react to what's happening

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<v Speaker 3>with the conflict, partly because we don't know what's going

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<v Speaker 3>to happen on a day to day basis, but they

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<v Speaker 3>do need to still see what is the impact to

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<v Speaker 3>inflation expectations. You are going to see these divergents building

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<v Speaker 3>out across the Atlantic with the You know, we expect

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<v Speaker 3>the FED to cut rates at least once later this year.

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<v Speaker 3>We delayed the rate cut through to the end of

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<v Speaker 3>the year. But in Europe their focused possibility to focus

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<v Speaker 3>on inflation expectations is that much stronger. So we are

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<v Speaker 3>anticipately a couple of rate heights from the ECB and

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<v Speaker 3>certainly potentially from the Bank of England as well, but

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<v Speaker 3>right now it is too early for these central banks

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<v Speaker 3>to be responding.

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<v Speaker 2>Shaw from London with principal asset manager. She was really

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<v Speaker 2>quite good on how different regions are affected by what

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing right now, which is one fifteen, one sixteen

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<v Speaker 2>and one seventeen Brent crude. As I tape this, it's

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<v Speaker 2>one sixteen eighty. But wait for a cup of Senca

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<v Speaker 2>and we'll get a different price. Michael Ball of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Markets has made an immense splash worldwide. He's being picked

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<v Speaker 2>up by all sorts of news services for his acute

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<v Speaker 2>analysis any number of topics today with Michael Ball. But

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<v Speaker 2>he started out with not the MAG seven, but maybe

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<v Speaker 2>it's called the MAG fifty.

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<v Speaker 1>And like as I walked out, I told you guys

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<v Speaker 1>like Blue Energy and Seagate coming out of the gates

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<v Speaker 1>this morning real strong. And we know from ASML, from

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<v Speaker 1>basically TSMC that you know we should expect good thing

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<v Speaker 1>from the hyper scales. We're not yet near the peak.

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<v Speaker 1>We're looking third fourth quarter maybe for some of these

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<v Speaker 1>capecks numbers to finally start coming down. They're not coming

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<v Speaker 1>down yet. What we're just looking for right now, I guess,

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<v Speaker 1>is the trickle of smaller data points from Asia moving

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<v Speaker 1>into Europe and eventually hitting the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's where we got to start thinking about that.

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<v Speaker 1>This AI capex isn't enough to offset the real economic

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<v Speaker 1>damage being done from the short of not only oil,

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<v Speaker 1>but all these other products, fertilizers, you name it.

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<v Speaker 2>It is an incredible set of dynamics. Each conversation we're having,

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<v Speaker 2>I hope adds a richness to your questions on my

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<v Speaker 2>head spending just as much as yours is over the

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<v Speaker 2>statics and the dynamics of economics, finance, investment, and international

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<v Speaker 2>relations on podcasts or at Spotify, at Apple on YouTube

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<v Speaker 2>podcasts its single best idea