WEBVTT - The Impact Of Liz Truss Resigning (Podcast) 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find a Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.520 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, the news 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:23.640 of the day, of course, list trust stepping down as 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.600 Prime Minister of the UK. We need to get some 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:31.200 perspective here of maybe some next steps, if we will. 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:36.040 Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion columnists. Uh joins us here, Marcus. Uh. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:37.960 It seems like every time we talk to you, there's 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:40.760 some weird news coming out of the UK. It's going 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.199 on over there with you guys. So I love I 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:44.919 love speaking to you guys, but it would be nice 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.720 to do it and something more measured way than uh. 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:50.920 I mean, we're all sort of flabbergasted here because you 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:54.120 may have heard that there is a chance it seems 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:58.560 that Boris Johnson, remember him him? Sure he may. He 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.040 may put his hat in the ring again out of 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:03.639 the national interests, which is one way of looking at it. Anyways, 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:09.240 Um yeah, absolutely, Um. Up to up to then, it 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:11.759 was thinking, well, you know, maybe it doesn't matter quite 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:15.200 so much that Truss has gone because she wasn't really empowered. 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.880 Because the new chance of Jeremy Hunt, who is much 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:21.320 more about physical stability and not quite the reversion to 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:25.520 austerity perhaps that we've seen ten years ago under George Osborne, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.720 but certainly far less of this dash for growth which 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.639 the previous Chancellor Quasi Kwarteng had obviously stumbled so badly, 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.880 and we set off this whole guilt crisis. Um well, 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.960 what seems years ago now, but it was only about 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.319 three or four weeks ago. Um, so you know, trust going. 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.840 And if Hunt stayed at least in in as Chancellor 0:01:45.319 --> 0:01:47.800 or possibly even as as as leader, would would have 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.400 been you know, it's fine. Um, I think it was 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.760 Richie Snak, It's fine, Ben Wallace. This is the other 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.760 sort of possible one who's the Defense secretary. Sort of 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.800 fine again, as long as Hunt stays in in number 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.000 of having the chance of things, which apparently said he's 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.080 not gonna run for leader. Looks you know, looks quite 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:08.040 certain until um we get the Boris news. As ever, 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:12.320 the wrecking ball so is that, you know, the programs 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:16.040 that Jeremy Hunt has now shifted trust and am X too. 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.600 Is that in line with what Rishi Sunac wanted to 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:23.600 do in the first place. It's complicated, yes, but no, 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:28.120 but maybe I mean largely largely year I'm gonna say yes, um, 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.120 but I mean the way that the order in which 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.080 you know, she said it was proposing to do it, 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:35.920 uh is quite different. But then again, so much has changed. 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.520 Would you imagine someone like Sanak and Hunt thinking pretty much, 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:43.280 very closely in line, yes, you would, whereas the Trust 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:47.639 Hunt relationship was clearly, you know, very much diametrically opposite 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:51.040 in economic viewpoint, but they were going through the motions 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.239 for it, you know, just to keep her alive. She's 0:02:53.240 --> 0:02:56.440 no longer there. But Marcus, would the I mean the 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:58.600 would would the UK be in a much better place 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:03.200 had they go was in soon act begin with oh 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.520 oh yes, in a sense of Okay, if you don't 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:09.680 want to risk premium into UK assets, the more the 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:12.200 more on risk people exactly, if you want to keep 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:14.119 the cost of borrowing down, and we need to borrow 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.040 a lot more than optically, yes, Now you could argue 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:21.880 that Richie Snack's view of of increasing taxes and into 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:25.120 what like was certainly gonna be recession now, and you know, 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:30.000 penalizing both employers employees and indeed corporates on the tax 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.520 rate was was madness. I personally thought it was a 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:38.600 very ill decided guided approach. Nonetheless, uh, you know, his 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:42.400 his views and what happened under his trust seemed totally precient. Now, 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.080 I mean, in that sense, he's a logical candidate to 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.560 take over. I would think, all right, so Marcus, you 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.760 have your finger on the pulse of the city of London, 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:53.840 the markets. Well what do you think the markets quote 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:56.920 unquote I would like to see over the next couple 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:58.640 of days, a couple of weeks, and maybe a couple 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.720 of years. That's that's he's I mean, that's you can 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:03.120 see how guilt yields have dropped back again once Hunts 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.000 in power, and that the fact that they barely reacted 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:09.240 with trust going because they expect Hunter stay in number 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:11.960 eleven as in Chancellor. Then you know that I think 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.480 that shows you very clearly Sterling has you know, slightly 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:16.839 risen on the news, never a good thing for an 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.719 upgoing prime ministers. Know that the markets take their demise 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.560 in as a bullish sign. So I think as long 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:28.039 as we don't get you know, an unexpected result, I 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:31.360 think markets you know, will will take this um as 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.560 you know, look, the political side is so bad, as 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:38.320 long as the economic management of the economy and the 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:40.760 narrowing and the funding gap and the whole physical approach 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:45.080 is back on on a level playing field, they'll take that. Obviously, 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:49.240 longer term you could argue a more growth centric approach 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:52.840 as opposed to purely fixating on on on certain sort 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.360 of types of austerity or cutting back of tax cuts 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:58.440 um you know, may not benefit the UK and a 0:04:58.480 --> 0:04:59.960 long one, but that depends on what you believe in 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:04.400 capitalism mora or quas by socialism. So Marcus, if I 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.400 were to walk the countryside of of England and stuff 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:09.599 in you know, a pub every once in a while, 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:12.600 what would the local folks tell me about the economy 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:16.640 kind of their outlook here? How is it in the UK? Well, 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.560 I mean, I think the Australians put it best is 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.479 that the whining doesn't stop when the engines are turned 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.279 off when a UK plane arrives in Sydney. So we 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:27.520 are a bunch of windows. We talked about the weather. 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.520 Where we we we we we have certain fixations like 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:33.960 chewing and as you need usually saw with the queenseral 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:36.960 um So, I think most people are focused obviously on 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:38.680 the cost of living crisis. I think they see this 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:43.080 as a shambles, which evidently is in number ten where 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:46.560 you've got a twelve year long government, you know, which 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.320 has been through several iterations, not able to choose amongst 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:52.000 itself who should be leading on what their policy should be. 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.800 And therefore, um I think there is a state of 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:59.560 general disbelief that we are and everyone else's focus. We 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:01.960 don't want to be where the heck is. David Cameron 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:06.080 right now, you know he's I don't know. Marcus Ashworth, 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:09.160 good stuff. As always, we really appreciate getting your perspective. 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:13.920 There are Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg opinion columnists in London. I'm 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:16.680 hoping he's gonna get out to a public later this evening, 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.240 maybe you know, checking with the people, see how the 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:25.640 local economy is going out there. Again, we need some 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:27.599 smart voices here to give us some context here for 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.480 what's going on in the UK at price. Principle of ERGO, 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.680 which is a global intelligence and Analysis consultancy. Is also 0:06:34.720 --> 0:06:38.680 a nonresident senior fellow at some little college downtown New York. 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.160 I think it's n y U or something like that. 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.920 He's also a former British Trade officials, so that makes 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.680 him sound kind of official. He's done a lot of 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.120 stuff stuff, right, So, ed, what's going on with you 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:50.839 guys over there? I mean, I we we look to 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:55.159 the UK for stability to feel bad? What's going on 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:57.960 over there? Right? I mean, you've introduced me as a 0:06:57.960 --> 0:06:59.920 smart person, but I'm like, have to disappoint you strike 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.480 off the bat because again I don't know, and I 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:05.600 don't think anyone knows. That's the nature of it. But 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:07.280 you know, the headline is that the Prime Minister has 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.160 resigned after twenty minutes, never a good look, and there 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:13.800 will be a new prime minister within weeks, if not days. 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.160 The immediate question, I think for your listeners is what's 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.280 going to happen with that new fiscal budget that the 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:21.520 Chancellor Hunt was talking about? Is he going to write 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:23.160 that and then it's going to appear and be a 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:25.280 fair company for the new prime minister. It's coming in 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:27.400 twelve days that he is supposed to present that right 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:31.080 at Cobra thirty one. I wonder and have been asking 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:35.360 people would we be in a similar situation had Rishi 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.720 Sunac been elected, or would we be in a much 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:43.360 better situation, and therefore should the parliament now elect him 0:07:43.400 --> 0:07:45.360 as the new leader. Okay, so we would have been 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:49.040 in a much better situation VISI V Markets visiby capital markets, 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:52.760 I contend um, But it doesn't necessarily mean that now 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.920 we can as a country get him in. Here's the problem. 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.960 Rishi lost the popular election within the Conservative Party to 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.760 List Trust. If we now turn around and say, just kidding, 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.400 the popular candidate is not the prime minister, You've actually 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:10.320 got the candidate that lost to that popular candidate. What 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.520 does that say about Well, the popular candidate almost drove 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.040 you into a situation where the I m F may 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:18.280 have had to come in and bail you out. I mean, 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:21.640 the popular candidate did things so bad. I can't remember 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.120 the leader of a Western world making such a huge 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:32.320 error in terms of the economy. So she's clearly gone. 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:34.719 And I guess anyone except for those people in the 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:37.200 Conservative Party that voted for Liz Trust Liz Trust should 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:38.840 have a say and who the next leader is. Well, 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:41.360 that you're talking about a general election, right. Essentially you're 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:43.240 saying that if and I agree with you, if this 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.240 disastrous piece of off road driving has ended, which it 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:51.080 has right with a sort of triple slow motion role, Um, 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:53.280 then you then you really do need to go back 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.040 and ask people, well, what do you want? The problem 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.199 is I think that we've kind of broken the seal 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.160 on Sterling, right. We've now got people in markets thinking 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.599 about parity, cable rate parity, which, by the way, is 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:05.520 going to happen. If not, you know it will be broken. 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:07.880 Oh yeah, oh boy. But then the question is, well, 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:10.000 what exactly is a pound anyway? And what's it worth? 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.000 What are the fundamentals? I think that we're going to 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.680 be okay. I think that the democratic process has got 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:16.640 rid of someone that clearly wasn't up to the job 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:18.960 quite quickly. You can't do that in Russia. You can't 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:20.800 do that in China, as we just saw. So I 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.079 would say, I'm I'm medium long UK. I would say that, um, 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.720 but we are talking about a general election, surely, all right. 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:28.600 So if I talked to if I go into a 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.240 local pub, which I tend to do when I'm in 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:33.040 England and asked a local person. They're sitting on the 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.559 bar stoll mining his or her own business. I would 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:40.560 think they would say, we just want stability. Boris Johnson, 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:43.920 I'm not sure would fit the bill for stability. What 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:46.280 do you think the odds are that he actually comes 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.839 back and represents the Conservative Party? Hi, I think he 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.520 would quite like to do that. Um, and I think 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.240 that he he said, has he not that he will? 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.480 He will appear and take another girl at least standing. 0:09:57.000 --> 0:09:59.360 But then, but then define stability because on the one hand, 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:02.160 we've always say the Brits want I want that s 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:05.000 word want stability. That's almost the same saying it's the 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:07.720 economy stupid. But on the other hand, we voted to 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.000 exit the largest single market in the world, with all 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:13.760 the volatility that yeah, well there's a question. Is there 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.559 any possibility that that gets turned around or at least 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:19.080 undone in some ways? Yes, I think the United Kingdom 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:23.319 will join the euro within twenty years. Wow, that's what 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.199 you both look shocked? Yes, Yes, well I am well. 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:30.160 I I was certainly against Brexit because I'm an internationalist 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:33.680 as it were, but and that's not really in vogue 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:38.720 right now arguably, But I mean you're globalist. I'm just 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.200 I'm so sad that Hong Kong. What's happening to Hong Kong, 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.360 because that is a great global financial love hung was exactly, 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.800 thank you very much, And that's sad what's happening there? 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:51.160 So what are next steps here? I mean the markets 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:54.360 are kind of calm here. I'm looking at st not 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:58.080 out twenty years, next week, next week, next week. Yeah, 0:10:58.120 --> 0:10:59.920 the markets do look a bit calmer. I think guilt's 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.319 armed down, um sterling calm down. I think it all 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:07.160 depends now on the cadence and presentation of the new leaders. 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:09.160 I think they will be watched in the manner of 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.880 central bankers. I think Jeremy Hunt's actually doing quite a 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:16.240 good job of, you know, presenting that stable, calm, rational 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.320 face that you'd like to see from any chancellor. But 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.560 it does depend, I think who the next leader is 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:25.040 and how markets extrapolate the a physical capacity and b 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.319 fisical behavior of the United Kingdom on the basis of 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.680 who that leader will be. And markets are essentially calling 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:31.200 the shot. Is that fair to say shots? Is that 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.480 fair to say? Absolutely? You can't buck the markets, but 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:36.079 the markets can buck you. Yeah, there you go, that's 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:40.319 are back. That's a headline for our podcast. Did you 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.839 coin that phrase? Because we could well, Margaret Thatcher coined 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:44.480 the first half of that phrase. I think I just 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:46.560 came up with the second. But now you know we 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:51.040 have a podcast. I do know. I apparently I disappointed 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.880 one listener to whom I've responded, Yes, that was very 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.480 nice with landish comment that I made last week. But 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.560 it's okay. Ed Price, thank you so much for joining 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.160 us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Worker studio. At Prices, 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:05.439 a principle at ERGO, a global intelligence and analysis consultancy, 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:09.199 is also a nonresident senior fellow at NYU and a 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.840 former British trade official. Uh you know, kind of walking 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:16.600 around making the Maya colpus to some various media outlets. So, 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.920 but which is it's not actually Adds fault just because 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.040 he's British. Asked him to explain it to what's been 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:27.040 going on here big news of course out of the 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:30.240 UK or Liz Trust stepping down as Prime Minister. What 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.400 we're trying to do this mornings. Just get some perspective, uh, 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.440 some context? Uh so, I said one of the people 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:40.160 we have to get in studio is John Author's Bloomberg 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.280 Opinion calumnists. I mean when I think England, when I 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.560 think proper England, when I think proper English, I think 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.080 John Authors. I mean he went to this trade school 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.440 over the Oxford. I think it's pretty good. I don't know. 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:56.120 Um we think of we think of football a pint 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.640 of Vale the Union, Jack and John Author. That's what 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:02.200 we do. So I'm throwing beetles and Shakespeare while we're 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.400 maybe they're maybe they're I'm throwing the blame it you, 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.600 my friend. What's going on over there? That's kind of 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.360 been my question of the morning. What are you guys 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:09.839 doing over there? I guess she was a quit or 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:14.760 not a fighter. H First of all, no, it's not 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.240 my fault. We did it. We did a Twitter spaces 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.520 conversation at the point in early in the summer when 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.800 the fields to replace Boris Johnson had been narrowed down 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.240 to two, which was Lizz Trust and pretty soon Neck 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:34.080 And it was me and three other Bloomberg Opinion columnists, 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:37.280 Marks Ashworth and Adrian Wildridge and Terry's Raphael. And it 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.360 was a somewhat uninteresting conversation because all four of us 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.920 did think soon it should win. And the reason or 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:45.680 four of us thought that was that we just didn't 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:49.040 believe that this trust was equal to the job, that 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:53.440 you just wasn't good enough to take this on. Um. 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.200 And we were completely right. It's not. It's not as 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:59.120 though anybody not as though it was difficult to see 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:03.840 this coming. Similarly, I and every other economic commentator, pretty 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.960 much one or two sort of very ideological exceptions, was 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.200 writing that, you know, the bond market isn't going to 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.880 stand for it if you try to do what you 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:17.600 wants to do. So so, I mean these are remarkable 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:24.320 unforced errors. Um. Basically, I think, I think almost unprecedented, right. 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:27.360 I mean, if you think it back to any other leader, 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:31.520 world leader who has made such a huge economic own goal, 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:35.800 it's difficult to I have been trying. I mean, there 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:39.840 are there are examples of forced errors, you know, emerging 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:45.840 market finance ministers who devalue and things cut out of control. UM, 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:50.320 you know Nevill Chamberlain at Munich. UM. I mean you 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:55.760 know that there are some awful mistakes out there, but 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.960 none of them were forced. I'm sorry, all of them 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.560 were forced. The idea of there was no pressure to 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:07.120 do this, UM. I and that's quite such big unfunded 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.800 tax cuts and give no detail at all of how 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:11.520 you were going to favorite There was there was no 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.880 pressure to do this apart from a pretty small group 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:20.960 within the Conservative Party, and it was there's there's nothing 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.240 ideological about this either, even if you do believe in 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.200 a small states and lower taxes, which we let's due 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:28.800 to an extent that this was not the time to 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.200 try and making a big leap towards it. So so, 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:33.680 and the other thing is um, this is obviously a 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:37.760 very juicy story for journalists and in some ways it's 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.560 fun and amusing. But for the British people this has 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.720 been awful. I mean, they were already in a tough 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:49.120 spot and the mistakes that she made, along with quasi 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:53.880 quar tang um, have very likely ruined the lives of 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:56.680 thousands of Britons right who need people who need to 0:15:56.760 --> 0:16:00.400 re mortgage and can't afford to do it. They're then 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.720 forced to sell their homes at a lower price. The 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:09.400 guilts market, moving into any conversation immediately gets a bit 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.680 deader when you you say things like the guilt market. 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:16.880 It is calming down, basically by Jeremy Hunt's coming in 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.360 and as firmly as he did just say no, we're 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:26.680 not doing any of that. Um. So it is possible that, 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.560 you know, the shake up to confidence and the shock 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:37.240 won't go away. So I'm sure it has done lasting damage. Um. 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:41.760 It shouldn't be necessary for the property markets to seize 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:48.160 up as totally as currently seems possible because mortgage rates, 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:51.640 you know, at one point, at one point long daily 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.840 guilts were yielding more than five percent. Now they're below four. 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.880 That's a very big difference to how much actual inter 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.560 people need to pay each month. Um. But but in 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.840 broader terms, yes, I mean it makes us look silly. 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:10.600 It happens immediately after, amazingly the co within days of 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.919 the funeral of Elizabeth the Second, which I had a 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.880 lot of people thinking quite hard about what was good 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:22.040 and bad about recent British history. And yes, it's it's 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:28.200 it's it's appalling. I actually feel sorry for plenty of 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:33.040 small c conservative people who aren't particularly ideological did votes 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:37.920 conservative and those are exactly the people who probably hurt 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.320 most and let down the most. And that's a large 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.600 junk of British society. All right, Johnny, if we fast 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:45.520 forward two years is an a fair assumption that the 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:48.320 Conservatives will not be in power when the next election comes. 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:50.520 Is it that bad that it will just be swiped 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:52.840 out across the book. I'll stick to the wording I 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.280 used in my column last night, which is that I 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.600 don't think it's possible for the Conservatives to win the 0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:01.119 next election up Moore, it is still possible for Labor 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.480 to lose it. The big comparison here is with John 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.560 Major in ninety two, took over from Margaret Thatcher in 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:12.040 very messy circumstances, not of an awful lot more charismatic 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:16.240 than than Liz trust Um, but he was a fairly 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:20.440 safe pair of hands. And yes he is a decent man, 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.920 and um I actually quite liked as a person the 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:27.879 Labor leader Neil Kinnock who ran against him. But but 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.240 you didn't look like a very credible prime minister. And 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:36.000 in remarkable circumstances, very big turn up for the books 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.480 major one. But it wasn't so much that major one. 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:43.320 He just avoided making serious mistakes and gave Labor the 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:46.520 space to lose it. That's I think that's less likely 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.120 to happen this time because Keir Starmer is if not 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.240 he's not the second coming Winston Churchill, but he's a 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:55.120 perfectly credible by as far as I can see. And 0:18:55.680 --> 0:19:00.159 the Labor Party is really determined to you know, this 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:01.760 is what happens in parties has been out of power 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:03.720 for a long time. They get really determined not to 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:05.919 mess up. John ed Brice was just in here and 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:07.800 he said, now that markets have got the taste of it, 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:11.240 the pound is bound for parody again. Do you agree? 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:19.160 Probably the question. Probably one of the ways the British country, 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:24.200 British economy moves forwards is by accepting the somewhat higher 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:30.040 level of inflation and also therefore a somewhat lower level 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.840 for the pound. It's one of the less painful options 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:37.320 available to the country at this point. Parity, I'm not 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:44.439 predicting it next week. Parities certainly very possible. Interesting, So 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:49.080 travel plans are including the UK and Europe. My friend 0:19:49.080 --> 0:19:52.240 we get a number of American friends have been asking 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.679 me advice some where by the country and bring it 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:59.399 back in the souvenirs exactly. John Arthur's great stuff has 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:02.960 always John, to his opinion calumnists for Bloomberg News, he 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:05.800 is the pride of Great Britain and he is on 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:10.440 our blue but somehow he's an Englishman in New York, 0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:15.360 he's a Red Sox fan. I don't get that. We 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:20.200 have a situation in the UK. The Prime culture has 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:23.240 resigned after forty four days in office. Liz trust becomes 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:28.560 the shortest ruling prime minister in great British history, and 0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:32.400 as far as I can tell, um, her economic policy 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:35.959 mistake is the worst own goal. Yeah. I like how 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:40.159 you put that in recent memory. I can't think of anything. Um, 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:44.320 you know, if you exclude like Latin America and dictatorships 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:47.960 like Turkey, I can't imagine. I can't remember a situation 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:49.520 that that was worse than this. Let's bring in our 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:54.359 editor in chief, John michel Thwaite. UM two, help me 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.920 remember if it? Do you think that's the case? John? 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.720 Is this the worst um at an amic blunder in 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:04.040 the surest amount of time that you can recall in 0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:08.760 the Western world? Yes, I can't. I can't immediately. I 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:13.200 have some dim reminiscence of I mean, I was Italian. 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:17.560 Italian governments have changed incredibly quickly, but that all, to 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:20.240 be honest, that was just sort of internal politics going 0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:24.320 backwards and forwards. In this case, it's a very simple thing. 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:28.000 There was an unbelievable own girl the extent it's like 0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:32.159 you and done so quickly. Sometimes again, to carry on 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:36.720 the analogy, in soccer, people score an own goal because 0:21:36.760 --> 0:21:39.120 the other side is attacking and you do it. This 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:41.359 was almost the opposite. It's like she started the match, 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:45.000 turned round and hit it as hard as possible as 0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:48.280 our own goal. But almost you know, within the seconds 0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:51.680 of the kickoff that that and that alone is an 0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:53.960 act of kind of that. That is the first I've 0:21:54.000 --> 0:21:57.560 never seen that. Yeah, so, and we were talking with 0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:01.240 John Authur's who said, you know, maybe Lehman Brothers fail, 0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:04.440 but that was something where you know, people in high 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:08.600 office is deliberated with each other for at least weeks, 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:12.520