1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find a Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, the news 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: of the day, of course, list trust stepping down as 8 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: Prime Minister of the UK. We need to get some 9 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: perspective here of maybe some next steps, if we will. 10 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion columnists. Uh joins us here, Marcus. Uh. 11 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: It seems like every time we talk to you, there's 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: some weird news coming out of the UK. It's going 13 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: on over there with you guys. So I love I 14 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:44,919 Speaker 1: love speaking to you guys, but it would be nice 15 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: to do it and something more measured way than uh. 16 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: I mean, we're all sort of flabbergasted here because you 17 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: may have heard that there is a chance it seems 18 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: that Boris Johnson, remember him him? Sure he may. He 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: may put his hat in the ring again out of 20 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:03,639 Speaker 1: the national interests, which is one way of looking at it. Anyways, 21 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: Um yeah, absolutely, Um. Up to up to then, it 22 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 1: was thinking, well, you know, maybe it doesn't matter quite 23 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: so much that Truss has gone because she wasn't really empowered. 24 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: Because the new chance of Jeremy Hunt, who is much 25 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: more about physical stability and not quite the reversion to 26 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: austerity perhaps that we've seen ten years ago under George Osborne, 27 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: but certainly far less of this dash for growth which 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,639 Speaker 1: the previous Chancellor Quasi Kwarteng had obviously stumbled so badly, 29 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: and we set off this whole guilt crisis. Um well, 30 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: what seems years ago now, but it was only about 31 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: three or four weeks ago. Um, so you know, trust going. 32 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: And if Hunt stayed at least in in as Chancellor 33 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: or possibly even as as as leader, would would have 34 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: been you know, it's fine. Um, I think it was 35 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: Richie Snak, It's fine, Ben Wallace. This is the other 36 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: sort of possible one who's the Defense secretary. Sort of 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: fine again, as long as Hunt stays in in number 38 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: of having the chance of things, which apparently said he's 39 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: not gonna run for leader. Looks you know, looks quite 40 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: certain until um we get the Boris news. As ever, 41 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: the wrecking ball so is that, you know, the programs 42 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: that Jeremy Hunt has now shifted trust and am X too. 43 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: Is that in line with what Rishi Sunac wanted to 44 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: do in the first place. It's complicated, yes, but no, 45 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: but maybe I mean largely largely year I'm gonna say yes, um, 46 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: but I mean the way that the order in which 47 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 1: you know, she said it was proposing to do it, 48 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 1: uh is quite different. But then again, so much has changed. 49 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: Would you imagine someone like Sanak and Hunt thinking pretty much, 50 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: very closely in line, yes, you would, whereas the Trust 51 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: Hunt relationship was clearly, you know, very much diametrically opposite 52 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: in economic viewpoint, but they were going through the motions 53 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: for it, you know, just to keep her alive. She's 54 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: no longer there. But Marcus, would the I mean the 55 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: would would the UK be in a much better place 56 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: had they go was in soon act begin with oh 57 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: oh yes, in a sense of Okay, if you don't 58 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: want to risk premium into UK assets, the more the 59 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: more on risk people exactly, if you want to keep 60 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,119 Speaker 1: the cost of borrowing down, and we need to borrow 61 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: a lot more than optically, yes, Now you could argue 62 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: that Richie Snack's view of of increasing taxes and into 63 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: what like was certainly gonna be recession now, and you know, 64 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: penalizing both employers employees and indeed corporates on the tax 65 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: rate was was madness. I personally thought it was a 66 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: very ill decided guided approach. Nonetheless, uh, you know, his 67 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: his views and what happened under his trust seemed totally precient. Now, 68 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: I mean, in that sense, he's a logical candidate to 69 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: take over. I would think, all right, so Marcus, you 70 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: have your finger on the pulse of the city of London, 71 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: the markets. Well what do you think the markets quote 72 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: unquote I would like to see over the next couple 73 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: of days, a couple of weeks, and maybe a couple 74 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: of years. That's that's he's I mean, that's you can 75 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: see how guilt yields have dropped back again once Hunts 76 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: in power, and that the fact that they barely reacted 77 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: with trust going because they expect Hunter stay in number 78 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: eleven as in Chancellor. Then you know that I think 79 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: that shows you very clearly Sterling has you know, slightly 80 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: risen on the news, never a good thing for an 81 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: upgoing prime ministers. Know that the markets take their demise 82 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: in as a bullish sign. So I think as long 83 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: as we don't get you know, an unexpected result, I 84 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: think markets you know, will will take this um as 85 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: you know, look, the political side is so bad, as 86 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 1: long as the economic management of the economy and the 87 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: narrowing and the funding gap and the whole physical approach 88 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: is back on on a level playing field, they'll take that. Obviously, 89 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: longer term you could argue a more growth centric approach 90 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: as opposed to purely fixating on on on certain sort 91 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 1: of types of austerity or cutting back of tax cuts 92 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: um you know, may not benefit the UK and a 93 00:04:58,480 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: long one, but that depends on what you believe in 94 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: capitalism mora or quas by socialism. So Marcus, if I 95 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: were to walk the countryside of of England and stuff 96 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: in you know, a pub every once in a while, 97 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: what would the local folks tell me about the economy 98 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: kind of their outlook here? How is it in the UK? Well, 99 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Australians put it best is 100 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: that the whining doesn't stop when the engines are turned 101 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 1: off when a UK plane arrives in Sydney. So we 102 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: are a bunch of windows. We talked about the weather. 103 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: Where we we we we we have certain fixations like 104 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: chewing and as you need usually saw with the queenseral 105 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: um So, I think most people are focused obviously on 106 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: the cost of living crisis. I think they see this 107 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: as a shambles, which evidently is in number ten where 108 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: you've got a twelve year long government, you know, which 109 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: has been through several iterations, not able to choose amongst 110 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: itself who should be leading on what their policy should be. 111 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: And therefore, um I think there is a state of 112 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: general disbelief that we are and everyone else's focus. We 113 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: don't want to be where the heck is. David Cameron 114 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: right now, you know he's I don't know. Marcus Ashworth, 115 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 1: good stuff. As always, we really appreciate getting your perspective. 116 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: There are Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg opinion columnists in London. I'm 117 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: hoping he's gonna get out to a public later this evening, 118 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: maybe you know, checking with the people, see how the 119 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: local economy is going out there. Again, we need some 120 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: smart voices here to give us some context here for 121 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: what's going on in the UK at price. Principle of ERGO, 122 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: which is a global intelligence and Analysis consultancy. Is also 123 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: a nonresident senior fellow at some little college downtown New York. 124 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: I think it's n y U or something like that. 125 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: He's also a former British Trade officials, so that makes 126 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: him sound kind of official. He's done a lot of 127 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: stuff stuff, right, So, ed, what's going on with you 128 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 1: guys over there? I mean, I we we look to 129 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 1: the UK for stability to feel bad? What's going on 130 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: over there? Right? I mean, you've introduced me as a 131 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: smart person, but I'm like, have to disappoint you strike 132 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: off the bat because again I don't know, and I 133 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: don't think anyone knows. That's the nature of it. But 134 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 1: you know, the headline is that the Prime Minister has 135 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: resigned after twenty minutes, never a good look, and there 136 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: will be a new prime minister within weeks, if not days. 137 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: The immediate question, I think for your listeners is what's 138 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: going to happen with that new fiscal budget that the 139 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: Chancellor Hunt was talking about? Is he going to write 140 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: that and then it's going to appear and be a 141 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: fair company for the new prime minister. It's coming in 142 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: twelve days that he is supposed to present that right 143 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: at Cobra thirty one. I wonder and have been asking 144 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: people would we be in a similar situation had Rishi 145 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: Sunac been elected, or would we be in a much 146 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: better situation, and therefore should the parliament now elect him 147 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: as the new leader. Okay, so we would have been 148 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: in a much better situation VISI V Markets visiby capital markets, 149 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: I contend um, But it doesn't necessarily mean that now 150 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: we can as a country get him in. Here's the problem. 151 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: Rishi lost the popular election within the Conservative Party to 152 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: List Trust. If we now turn around and say, just kidding, 153 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: the popular candidate is not the prime minister, You've actually 154 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: got the candidate that lost to that popular candidate. What 155 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: does that say about Well, the popular candidate almost drove 156 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: you into a situation where the I m F may 157 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: have had to come in and bail you out. I mean, 158 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: the popular candidate did things so bad. I can't remember 159 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: the leader of a Western world making such a huge 160 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: error in terms of the economy. So she's clearly gone. 161 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: And I guess anyone except for those people in the 162 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: Conservative Party that voted for Liz Trust Liz Trust should 163 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 1: have a say and who the next leader is. Well, 164 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: that you're talking about a general election, right. Essentially you're 165 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: saying that if and I agree with you, if this 166 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: disastrous piece of off road driving has ended, which it 167 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: has right with a sort of triple slow motion role, Um, 168 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: then you then you really do need to go back 169 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: and ask people, well, what do you want? The problem 170 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: is I think that we've kind of broken the seal 171 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: on Sterling, right. We've now got people in markets thinking 172 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,599 Speaker 1: about parity, cable rate parity, which, by the way, is 173 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: going to happen. If not, you know it will be broken. 174 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh boy. But then the question is, well, 175 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: what exactly is a pound anyway? And what's it worth? 176 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: What are the fundamentals? I think that we're going to 177 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: be okay. I think that the democratic process has got 178 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: rid of someone that clearly wasn't up to the job 179 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: quite quickly. You can't do that in Russia. You can't 180 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: do that in China, as we just saw. So I 181 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 1: would say, I'm I'm medium long UK. I would say that, um, 182 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: but we are talking about a general election, surely, all right. 183 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: So if I talked to if I go into a 184 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: local pub, which I tend to do when I'm in 185 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: England and asked a local person. They're sitting on the 186 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: bar stoll mining his or her own business. I would 187 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: think they would say, we just want stability. Boris Johnson, 188 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: I'm not sure would fit the bill for stability. What 189 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: do you think the odds are that he actually comes 190 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,839 Speaker 1: back and represents the Conservative Party? Hi, I think he 191 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: would quite like to do that. Um, and I think 192 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: that he he said, has he not that he will? 193 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: He will appear and take another girl at least standing. 194 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: But then, but then define stability because on the one hand, 195 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: we've always say the Brits want I want that s 196 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: word want stability. That's almost the same saying it's the 197 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: economy stupid. But on the other hand, we voted to 198 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: exit the largest single market in the world, with all 199 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: the volatility that yeah, well there's a question. Is there 200 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 1: any possibility that that gets turned around or at least 201 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 1: undone in some ways? Yes, I think the United Kingdom 202 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 1: will join the euro within twenty years. Wow, that's what 203 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: you both look shocked? Yes, Yes, well I am well. 204 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: I I was certainly against Brexit because I'm an internationalist 205 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 1: as it were, but and that's not really in vogue 206 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: right now arguably, But I mean you're globalist. I'm just 207 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: I'm so sad that Hong Kong. What's happening to Hong Kong, 208 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: because that is a great global financial love hung was exactly, 209 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: thank you very much, And that's sad what's happening there? 210 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: So what are next steps here? I mean the markets 211 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: are kind of calm here. I'm looking at st not 212 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: out twenty years, next week, next week, next week. Yeah, 213 00:10:58,120 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: the markets do look a bit calmer. I think guilt's 214 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: armed down, um sterling calm down. I think it all 215 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: depends now on the cadence and presentation of the new leaders. 216 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: I think they will be watched in the manner of 217 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: central bankers. I think Jeremy Hunt's actually doing quite a 218 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: good job of, you know, presenting that stable, calm, rational 219 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: face that you'd like to see from any chancellor. But 220 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: it does depend, I think who the next leader is 221 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: and how markets extrapolate the a physical capacity and b 222 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: fisical behavior of the United Kingdom on the basis of 223 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: who that leader will be. And markets are essentially calling 224 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: the shot. Is that fair to say shots? Is that 225 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: fair to say? Absolutely? You can't buck the markets, but 226 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 1: the markets can buck you. Yeah, there you go, that's 227 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 1: are back. That's a headline for our podcast. Did you 228 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: coin that phrase? Because we could well, Margaret Thatcher coined 229 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: the first half of that phrase. I think I just 230 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: came up with the second. But now you know we 231 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: have a podcast. I do know. I apparently I disappointed 232 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: one listener to whom I've responded, Yes, that was very 233 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: nice with landish comment that I made last week. But 234 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: it's okay. Ed Price, thank you so much for joining 235 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Worker studio. At Prices, 236 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 1: a principle at ERGO, a global intelligence and analysis consultancy, 237 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: is also a nonresident senior fellow at NYU and a 238 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: former British trade official. Uh you know, kind of walking 239 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: around making the Maya colpus to some various media outlets. So, 240 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: but which is it's not actually Adds fault just because 241 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: he's British. Asked him to explain it to what's been 242 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: going on here big news of course out of the 243 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: UK or Liz Trust stepping down as Prime Minister. What 244 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: we're trying to do this mornings. Just get some perspective, uh, 245 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 1: some context? Uh so, I said one of the people 246 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: we have to get in studio is John Author's Bloomberg 247 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 1: Opinion calumnists. I mean when I think England, when I 248 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 1: think proper England, when I think proper English, I think 249 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: John Authors. I mean he went to this trade school 250 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: over the Oxford. I think it's pretty good. I don't know. 251 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: Um we think of we think of football a pint 252 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: of Vale the Union, Jack and John Author. That's what 253 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 1: we do. So I'm throwing beetles and Shakespeare while we're 254 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: maybe they're maybe they're I'm throwing the blame it you, 255 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: my friend. What's going on over there? That's kind of 256 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: been my question of the morning. What are you guys 257 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 1: doing over there? I guess she was a quit or 258 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: not a fighter. H First of all, no, it's not 259 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: my fault. We did it. We did a Twitter spaces 260 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: conversation at the point in early in the summer when 261 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: the fields to replace Boris Johnson had been narrowed down 262 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: to two, which was Lizz Trust and pretty soon Neck 263 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 1: And it was me and three other Bloomberg Opinion columnists, 264 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: Marks Ashworth and Adrian Wildridge and Terry's Raphael. And it 265 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: was a somewhat uninteresting conversation because all four of us 266 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: did think soon it should win. And the reason or 267 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: four of us thought that was that we just didn't 268 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: believe that this trust was equal to the job, that 269 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: you just wasn't good enough to take this on. Um. 270 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: And we were completely right. It's not. It's not as 271 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: though anybody not as though it was difficult to see 272 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: this coming. Similarly, I and every other economic commentator, pretty 273 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: much one or two sort of very ideological exceptions, was 274 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: writing that, you know, the bond market isn't going to 275 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: stand for it if you try to do what you 276 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: wants to do. So so, I mean these are remarkable 277 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: unforced errors. Um. Basically, I think, I think almost unprecedented, right. 278 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: I mean, if you think it back to any other leader, 279 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: world leader who has made such a huge economic own goal, 280 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: it's difficult to I have been trying. I mean, there 281 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: are there are examples of forced errors, you know, emerging 282 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: market finance ministers who devalue and things cut out of control. UM, 283 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: you know Nevill Chamberlain at Munich. UM. I mean you 284 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: know that there are some awful mistakes out there, but 285 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: none of them were forced. I'm sorry, all of them 286 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: were forced. The idea of there was no pressure to 287 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: do this, UM. I and that's quite such big unfunded 288 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 1: tax cuts and give no detail at all of how 289 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: you were going to favorite There was there was no 290 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 1: pressure to do this apart from a pretty small group 291 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: within the Conservative Party, and it was there's there's nothing 292 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: ideological about this either, even if you do believe in 293 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: a small states and lower taxes, which we let's due 294 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: to an extent that this was not the time to 295 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: try and making a big leap towards it. So so, 296 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: and the other thing is um, this is obviously a 297 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: very juicy story for journalists and in some ways it's 298 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: fun and amusing. But for the British people this has 299 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: been awful. I mean, they were already in a tough 300 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: spot and the mistakes that she made, along with quasi 301 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: quar tang um, have very likely ruined the lives of 302 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 1: thousands of Britons right who need people who need to 303 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: re mortgage and can't afford to do it. They're then 304 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: forced to sell their homes at a lower price. The 305 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: guilts market, moving into any conversation immediately gets a bit 306 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: deader when you you say things like the guilt market. 307 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: It is calming down, basically by Jeremy Hunt's coming in 308 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: and as firmly as he did just say no, we're 309 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: not doing any of that. Um. So it is possible that, 310 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: you know, the shake up to confidence and the shock 311 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: won't go away. So I'm sure it has done lasting damage. Um. 312 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: It shouldn't be necessary for the property markets to seize 313 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: up as totally as currently seems possible because mortgage rates, 314 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: you know, at one point, at one point long daily 315 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: guilts were yielding more than five percent. Now they're below four. 316 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: That's a very big difference to how much actual inter 317 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: people need to pay each month. Um. But but in 318 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: broader terms, yes, I mean it makes us look silly. 319 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: It happens immediately after, amazingly the co within days of 320 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,919 Speaker 1: the funeral of Elizabeth the Second, which I had a 321 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: lot of people thinking quite hard about what was good 322 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 1: and bad about recent British history. And yes, it's it's 323 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: it's it's appalling. I actually feel sorry for plenty of 324 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 1: small c conservative people who aren't particularly ideological did votes 325 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: conservative and those are exactly the people who probably hurt 326 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: most and let down the most. And that's a large 327 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: junk of British society. All right, Johnny, if we fast 328 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: forward two years is an a fair assumption that the 329 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 1: Conservatives will not be in power when the next election comes. 330 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: Is it that bad that it will just be swiped 331 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: out across the book. I'll stick to the wording I 332 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: used in my column last night, which is that I 333 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: don't think it's possible for the Conservatives to win the 334 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: next election up Moore, it is still possible for Labor 335 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: to lose it. The big comparison here is with John 336 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: Major in ninety two, took over from Margaret Thatcher in 337 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: very messy circumstances, not of an awful lot more charismatic 338 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: than than Liz trust Um, but he was a fairly 339 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: safe pair of hands. And yes he is a decent man, 340 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 1: and um I actually quite liked as a person the 341 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: Labor leader Neil Kinnock who ran against him. But but 342 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: you didn't look like a very credible prime minister. And 343 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: in remarkable circumstances, very big turn up for the books 344 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: major one. But it wasn't so much that major one. 345 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: He just avoided making serious mistakes and gave Labor the 346 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: space to lose it. That's I think that's less likely 347 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: to happen this time because Keir Starmer is if not 348 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: he's not the second coming Winston Churchill, but he's a 349 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 1: perfectly credible by as far as I can see. And 350 00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 1: the Labor Party is really determined to you know, this 351 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: is what happens in parties has been out of power 352 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: for a long time. They get really determined not to 353 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: mess up. John ed Brice was just in here and 354 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: he said, now that markets have got the taste of it, 355 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: the pound is bound for parody again. Do you agree? 356 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: Probably the question. Probably one of the ways the British country, 357 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: British economy moves forwards is by accepting the somewhat higher 358 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: level of inflation and also therefore a somewhat lower level 359 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: for the pound. It's one of the less painful options 360 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: available to the country at this point. Parity, I'm not 361 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 1: predicting it next week. Parities certainly very possible. Interesting, So 362 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: travel plans are including the UK and Europe. My friend 363 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: we get a number of American friends have been asking 364 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 1: me advice some where by the country and bring it 365 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: back in the souvenirs exactly. John Arthur's great stuff has 366 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: always John, to his opinion calumnists for Bloomberg News, he 367 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: is the pride of Great Britain and he is on 368 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: our blue but somehow he's an Englishman in New York, 369 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 1: he's a Red Sox fan. I don't get that. We 370 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: have a situation in the UK. The Prime culture has 371 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: resigned after forty four days in office. Liz trust becomes 372 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: the shortest ruling prime minister in great British history, and 373 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 1: as far as I can tell, um, her economic policy 374 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,959 Speaker 1: mistake is the worst own goal. Yeah. I like how 375 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 1: you put that in recent memory. I can't think of anything. Um, 376 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: you know, if you exclude like Latin America and dictatorships 377 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: like Turkey, I can't imagine. I can't remember a situation 378 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: that that was worse than this. Let's bring in our 379 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 1: editor in chief, John michel Thwaite. UM two, help me 380 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 1: remember if it? Do you think that's the case? John? 381 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: Is this the worst um at an amic blunder in 382 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 1: the surest amount of time that you can recall in 383 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: the Western world? Yes, I can't. I can't immediately. I 384 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: have some dim reminiscence of I mean, I was Italian. 385 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: Italian governments have changed incredibly quickly, but that all, to 386 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: be honest, that was just sort of internal politics going 387 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: backwards and forwards. In this case, it's a very simple thing. 388 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: There was an unbelievable own girl the extent it's like 389 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: you and done so quickly. Sometimes again, to carry on 390 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: the analogy, in soccer, people score an own goal because 391 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,120 Speaker 1: the other side is attacking and you do it. This 392 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: was almost the opposite. It's like she started the match, 393 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: turned round and hit it as hard as possible as 394 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: our own goal. But almost you know, within the seconds 395 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 1: of the kickoff that that and that alone is an 396 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: act of kind of that. That is the first I've 397 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: never seen that. Yeah, so, and we were talking with 398 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: John Authur's who said, you know, maybe Lehman Brothers fail, 399 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: but that was something where you know, people in high 400 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: office is deliberated with each other for at least weeks, 401 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: if not months. This, as far as we can see, 402 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: is something that Liz Trust and Quasi Quartang kind of 403 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: just did without telling anyone. Yeah, it is. I mean, 404 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,959 Speaker 1: basically I said earlier, it's possible, you know, it's possible 405 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: to feel sorry for Trust. She's wanted to get this 406 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 1: job all her life, She's done all that sort of thing. 407 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: But the damage she has caused in that short time 408 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: has been utterly extraordinary. I mean, to the country, most 409 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: obviously to lots of people whose mortgage rates have now 410 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: shut up, but also rather weirdly, you know, to the 411 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: party that elected her. Um too. You know, in some 412 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 1: ways it's also made life incredibly difficult for labor because 413 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: whatever whoever comes in, and this applies to the people 414 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 1: running for leadership as well, whoever comes in, there's now 415 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 1: very narrow there's a very narrow room for maneuver. You 416 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: can't do that much because the markets have lost confidence 417 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: in us. John Baris Johnson, is there an option? Really? 418 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 1: I know that's that's a question many people are asking themselves. Um. 419 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: I think the simple answer is, in terms of stability, 420 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: um stability and Boris are not words that go together, 421 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 1: and indeed that has been the true all his life. 422 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: It's like you'd rather sit on the back of that 423 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 1: Miller's motorbike going high speed without a crash on it. 424 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: You would be you would be better, you'd stand a 425 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: better chance of getting through things. Boris has never been stable. 426 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: That's that's he's inventive, he's clever, he's all those things. 427 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: The one argument for him at all is that he 428 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 1: is possibly the one person in the Conservative Party who's 429 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: shown an ability to make the current coalition of the 430 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 1: Conservative Party work that taking these what they call red 431 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 1: walls seats from labor in the north, persuading working class 432 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: Brexiteers that he was the answer, whilst at the same 433 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 1: time hanging on to most of the normal kind suburban 434 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: Tory heartlands as well. But but he did that by 435 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: telling them both the same thing at the you know, 436 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: the the opposite things at the same time, with a 437 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: lot of charm. But I think everything went wrong. So 438 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 1: I didn't and it certainly I was in Westminster last 439 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: night and you did not get a lot of feelings 440 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: of support for Boris. They got rid of Boris and 441 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: and and he was I think people see him as 442 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: a symptom of the chaos. He didn't do anything quite 443 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: as terrible as Trusted, but he still made a mess 444 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: of a lot of things quite quickly. Why isn't Rishie 445 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: Sunac the obvious choice? I mean, I still can't understand 446 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 1: why he lost versus Liz trust, But at this point 447 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: you can see that she was the wrong choice. And um, 448 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: Jeremy Hunt is running some rather Sunakian policy, so why 449 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 1: not bring him in? Yes, I mean that the it's 450 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 1: difficult basically that the argument for Sunac is very simple 451 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 1: is you know I told do you so? Is that 452 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 1: he was the choice of the MPs. He was the 453 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: person who said this would happen, and it's happened. The 454 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 1: difficulty this time around is that you have to get 455 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 1: it sort of just through the MPs, and there there 456 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: is a group of people who are still very cross 457 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: from the right wing of the party about the idea 458 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: that Sunac was somehow guilty of getting rid of Boris 459 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: Johnson and Hunt. By contrast, there generally more well disposed 460 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: to Hunt ran against Buck Johnson for the leadership a 461 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: long time ago, but then he behaved sort of relatively 462 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: well from then on, and people look at they don't 463 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: have the same animous towards Hunt that they do towards Sunac. 464 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 1: So from that point of view, actually, you know, Jeremy 465 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: Hunter has played that yet another very clever candidate card 466 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: by immediately announcing that he won't stand. You could imagine 467 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: a situation that maybe in four or five days that 468 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: will come back and not unlike Boris Johnson's heroes Cincinnatus, 469 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: he gets dragged from the plow in the same way 470 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 1: as people in this cool to run large editorial developments 471 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,199 Speaker 1: and be told to be told you know you're the 472 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: only person who can do this right, and that that 473 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: there may be a bit of that in it. And 474 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 1: the conservative partly a party writ large over you know, 475 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: two years from now, do they have a shot of 476 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 1: keeping power here or is it just gotten beyond the 477 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: pall Here They have a shot, but only in the 478 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: sense of you're sitting there on the par three there 479 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: is a chance of you getting a hole in one, um, 480 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 1: but the odds are generally not in your favor. Yeah, 481 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: they do. There is a narrow room whereby they go 482 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 1: through the following things. Number one is they do elect 483 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: probably either sac or Hunt. They elect someone who looks 484 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: grown up and looks as if he knows what he's doing. 485 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: Penny more than conceivably um if she had the other 486 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 1: two next daughter. But they suddenly look much more stable, 487 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 1: much more responsible. They somehow managed to keep the head 488 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 1: bangers in order, and at the same token, the core 489 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: bin Easta's inside the Labor Party goes slightly mad. And 490 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: then finally some event happens that changes things, and that 491 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 1: in the end it's almost like events as your hope. 492 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: You look at British politics, like politics in several other countries, 493 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: to be fair, at least in this way, it is 494 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 1: astonishingly febrile. You know, things change unbelievably. It was only 495 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 1: probably a year or so ago, a bit more than 496 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: a year ago, that we were talking about Boris Johnson 497 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: being you know, definitely instable and definitely out of control, 498 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 1: but being totally unbeatable, where he was then got rid 499 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,919 Speaker 1: of because he parties and all that sort of stuff. 500 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 1: So it's possible that something similar will happen, which makes 501 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: whoever the incoming Prime minister is look very good and 502 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,399 Speaker 1: makes Starma look bad. But at the moment a people 503 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 1: haven't seen a thirty point lead in British politics for 504 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 1: a very very long time. John I might be old 505 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 1: school here, but you know, when I look across the 506 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: pond too, the you know, great Britain, I think of 507 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: a world leader, stable, strong, uh you know, obviously a key, key, 508 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: key partner for the United States. Is that feeling I mean? 509 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: But then you know, the last several years, I've seen 510 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 1: Brexit boy, and then I've seen you know, kind of this, 511 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 1: the volatility we've seen in the political circles here and 512 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: are is Great Britain concerned that they have lost are 513 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: losing that type of reputation. Yeah, I think they are. 514 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 1: I mean most obviously because you can see what the 515 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: way the markets are treating, you know, treating the economy. 516 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: We are looking to see what markets think of us 517 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 1: in the same way as I can last remember that 518 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 1: very kind of dimly obviously in the in the nineteen seventies. 519 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: You know that was when you watched the British Chancellor 520 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: going off to the I m F to see if 521 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 1: they get some money. But more generally, you know, that 522 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 1: was the type of thing that we imagined happened to 523 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 1: countries like Italy. Um. And that's two points. That one 524 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: one is actually and I'm not trying to sound defensively 525 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: British about it, but there aren't There are a number 526 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: of other places that could make the same kind of mistake. 527 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 1: Italy is a per absolute prize example. You go, not 528 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 1: only coming in with a somewhat truscy and style of 529 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 1: doing things, well, you know, Italy has got even more debt. 530 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 1: So that's that be careful. Britain has a long record 531 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,840 Speaker 1: in politics of being a harbinger of of what happens 532 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 1: in other places. Well that there's a bit there, the 533 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: bit which is different about Britain and which you mentioned 534 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: the very beginning, that is Brexit. And the truth is 535 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 1: that ever since Brexit it's got harder. And the part 536 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,959 Speaker 1: of the hardness is that you have a group of 537 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: people in the Conservative Party who have exactly the same 538 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: approach that people in the Labor Party. Some people in 539 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: the Labor Party had in the nineteen seventies. Was the 540 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 1: only reason why socialism didn't work was it hadn't been 541 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: done properly. Well, there's a group of people within the 542 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: Tory Party who's only you've you were Brexit, as you know, 543 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: the only reason why it hasn't appeared to work because 544 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,200 Speaker 1: it hasn't been done properly, hasn't been as radical and 545 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: extreme as they would like it to be. That's that 546 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 1: was what Trust came in sort of sucking up to, 547 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: and it didn't really help. But the underlying point is 548 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: really simple. We we are a medium upper medium sized 549 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: economy on the edge of an absolutely gigantic one in 550 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 1: the shape of the European Union. And it's quite strong allies, 551 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: as you pointed out to the you know, so it's 552 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 1: strong historic links. But we trust Trust came in saying 553 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 1: we are a big place. We can get away with this. Well, 554 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: it's a bit like Sewers in the nineteen fifties. Is 555 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 1: Britain is not as robust and independently as as it 556 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 1: thought it was. I mean Britain. Of course, the Empire 557 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 1: has shrunk dramatically over the last century, most most regretfully 558 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 1: in North America. But but but my point was going 559 00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 1: to be, you're London is still a financial capital, I mean, 560 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 1: a huge hub of trade. And the pound has managed 561 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 1: to recover from big problems before. Look at you know 562 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:16,719 Speaker 1: how strong it got even after Soros. So I wonder, 563 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 1: you know it does the pound recover from this or 564 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: are we headed for parody now? Or does it? Does 565 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 1: it recover? There seems to be again, if I knew 566 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: how to gamble on the pound, I would be richer 567 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,479 Speaker 1: than I am. But that but basically I think the 568 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: argument that we're in a kind of one ten to 569 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 1: one fift against the dollar bit, which means that you know, 570 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: there is there is definitely a cost of having had 571 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 1: Liz Trust is that it's you know, the pound has 572 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: gone down a slought. On the other hand, the idea 573 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 1: that it's unlikely to get down further, largely because the 574 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: government's the government in power can't do that much going forward. 575 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 1: So we sort of know. One of the interesting things 576 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: about the drum the British and pitched themselves into is 577 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 1: that actually, if if you divided yourselves into one is 578 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 1: labor Sweeney Labor Miller conservative, there's not a lot of 579 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: difference between what you could do, um that that that 580 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: one of you might want to borrow a bit more 581 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: to spend a bit more in terms of um social 582 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 1: equality and stuff, and the other one might be trying 583 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 1: to be a bit more entrepreneurial. But there's not a 584 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: big difference because there simply isn't much. There's not much 585 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,960 Speaker 1: money left and there's very little at the markets are 586 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 1: going to let you do, and that people have just 587 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: seen the cost of doing that. By any measure, Britain 588 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 1: is going to have to borrow a lot of money 589 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 1: next year anyway. Just start dealing with the problems. It's 590 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,560 Speaker 1: already paid for, alright. Great, great to get your time. 591 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: You really appreciate your perspective. John Michael Waite, Bloombert News 592 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 1: editor in Chief, reporting from London. Let's stay on the 593 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 1: geopolitical track here, Mick mulroy, cofan of the Lobo Institute, 594 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 1: joins us. Mike Weird, we've been focusing on the uk 595 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,959 Speaker 1: here that the potential of the coming pending change in 596 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 1: leadership there. It just kind of helps us refocus, you know, 597 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 1: the attention on Europe. I mean, it's it's started with 598 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 1: Russia and the Ukraine and that is still front and center. 599 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: So let's I'd love to just get your thoughts about 600 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 1: where we are in Ukraine, how we should be thinking 601 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 1: about it, and most importantly, how it might play out 602 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:27,320 Speaker 1: going forward. Yeah, so great to be with you guys. 603 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 1: Um where we are in Ukraine right now. I think 604 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: Russia has seen that they failed and they're objected to 605 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 1: take the country. Now they're failing, and they're objective to 606 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: maintain the terrain essentially that they've taken to The Ukrainian 607 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: counterfest is still being successful and he is he being president. 608 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: Putin has resorted to just terrorizing the civilian population through 609 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 1: MRS strikes and now drown strikes, and now it looks 610 00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: like wholesale hostage taking of civilians in the Kirsan region, 611 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: both to cover their with jaw and potentially to force 612 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:08,120 Speaker 1: into some kind of constricted service against our own country. So, uh, 613 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: where we go from here? Where do they go from here? Um? 614 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: You know without the US putting boots in the ground 615 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: or apparently planes in the air. Um, does Ukraine have 616 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 1: a chance? Yes? I think Ukraine has the initiative right 617 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,359 Speaker 1: now in the momentum I see them. Uh. It's gonna 618 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 1: slow down in the winter, as you would expect due 619 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,839 Speaker 1: to the conditions, but they will continue to take terrain back. Uh. 620 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 1: And it looks like the even the massive call up 621 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 1: is not going to turn that around. So Ukraine will 622 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 1: take incrementally take terrain back from the Russians throughout the winter, 623 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 1: and then when the spring heads, I can see the 624 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 1: counter offensive going in the full swing. The problem that 625 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,400 Speaker 1: everybody is most concerned about is what will President Putin 626 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,719 Speaker 1: do once he once he fully understands that he is 627 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 1: not going to win this by the by staying within 628 00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: the bounds that he is right now, which is already uh, 629 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 1: you know, essentially a series of war crimes that's masquerading 630 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 1: as a military campaign. You know, Mike, you know you've 631 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,720 Speaker 1: got the perspective here, your former US Marine, former power 632 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: military operations officer, at c I A. You know how 633 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 1: these things can play out. My question is in Russia itself, 634 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: is there any scenario where Putin loses popular support and 635 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:32,919 Speaker 1: there's a change at that level? You know, at first 636 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,800 Speaker 1: I did not think that, and I'm no Russian expert, 637 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,319 Speaker 1: but i do know Russian experts and I've talked to them, 638 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:42,719 Speaker 1: and it would appear that he is losing public support rapidly. 639 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 1: Part of it is the fact that he's losing and 640 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 1: you know, the citizens and uncertainly the elite. Uh, I 641 00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,839 Speaker 1: don't want to see that. But also this massive called 642 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: up turned everybody against the war. You know, before then, um, 643 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,400 Speaker 1: it was it was somebody else's war essentially for the 644 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 1: average Russian. Now it's Russia's war. So in that might 645 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: be why he's not only created this martial law situation 646 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 1: and the four illegally annexed areas of Ukraine, but he's 647 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: also uh setting a martial law in and around Moscow 648 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 1: and other regions. So he might know that this is 649 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,600 Speaker 1: something that could cause him to be removed from power. 650 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,280 Speaker 1: And essentially dictators don't do well once they're removed from power. 651 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 1: I mean, they usually have a very short lifespan. So this. 652 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: This is something that's caused an issue back home. The 653 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 1: biggest concern is that he'll he'll go up and and 654 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 1: escalate this and potentially use uh tactic nuclear weapon or 655 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:43,279 Speaker 1: something like that. I am going to bring us back 656 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: to the UK firm and in a way that maybe 657 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,000 Speaker 1: you wouldn't expect. But word has it. You've just come 658 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:53,880 Speaker 1: back from a philosophy conference in um in Athens, and Um, 659 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 1: I've I've read your posed a case for a philosopher 660 00:36:56,640 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 1: king on Modern Stoicism dot com. I was saying King 661 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,879 Speaker 1: um all day about how rough this must be for Liz. Trust. Yes, 662 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,840 Speaker 1: it's her own fault, she brought it on ourselves, but 663 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 1: she has just gone through what must feel like the 664 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,720 Speaker 1: ultimate failure. You know, this is not like just failing 665 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: at your business or you know, making a mistake getting 666 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,360 Speaker 1: fired at work. She's gone all the way up to 667 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,680 Speaker 1: prime minister and has now lost and become the shortest 668 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 1: ruling prime minister in UK history. And Um kind of 669 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 1: reminded me a bit of Marcus Aurelius when he was 670 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 1: in a difficult situation. Um, how does a Stoic deal 671 00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 1: with this kind of horrific failure? With this kind of um, 672 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 1: just humiliation. Well, first of all, thanks for reading my paper. 673 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 1: Thank you, and my mom read that, so that's cool. Uh. 674 00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:49,400 Speaker 1: And then I had a great time at the conference 675 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,279 Speaker 1: by the way, and not to get off topic, but 676 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,759 Speaker 1: they're about to escavate Plato's academy, which is currently right 677 00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 1: now park But it's super cool, very cool. So how 678 00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: does it? How does I mean? The one thing that 679 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:06,440 Speaker 1: I would say, UM, from the stoic perspective is failures 680 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:10,640 Speaker 1: in life are expected. Um, They're going to happen. Sometimes 681 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:15,320 Speaker 1: they're completely outside of your control. Not that this was um, 682 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: but it's part of it. Is not is not that 683 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:22,279 Speaker 1: you try to avoid those failures. It's how you deal 684 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 1: with the failure. Right. So you know, I used to 685 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 1: be a boxing coach and I tell my boxers is 686 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,879 Speaker 1: not whether you're getting knocked down, it's whether you get 687 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: back up, which I think is a very stoic way 688 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,600 Speaker 1: of looking at things. So she doesn't need advice from me, 689 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,839 Speaker 1: but I would you know, you know, the stiff upper 690 00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,919 Speaker 1: lip and keep come and carry off. That's UK, that's 691 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 1: the that's the UK saying, right, But it's also a 692 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:48,120 Speaker 1: very stoic I would just tell her to basically do that. 693 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,959 Speaker 1: Winston Churchill also had some significant failures in his life, 694 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:54,759 Speaker 1: and you know what, he's going to go down as 695 00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,760 Speaker 1: the most one of the most significant leaders in history 696 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 1: quite frankly. So I'm not, you know, don't know how 697 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,920 Speaker 1: it'll work out for her, but I would certainly I 698 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,319 Speaker 1: would certainly have a broader perspective, uh and and ask 699 00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,280 Speaker 1: her to consider that the UK is a significant major 700 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,480 Speaker 1: ally in the So this is obviously concerned for us 701 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 1: when it comes to not only the war in Ukraine 702 00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 1: but everything that we deal with internationally. Absolutely all right, Mick, 703 00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:21,600 Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking a time to join us. 704 00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 1: We always appreciate getting your perspective. Mc mulroy, co founder 705 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:31,360 Speaker 1: of the Lobo Institute. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 706 00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,840 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at 707 00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 708 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Pet On Ball 709 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,719 Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 710 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,239 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.