WEBVTT - Market Volatility, Supply Chain, And Electric Vehicles (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's turn to Omar Aguilar,

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<v Speaker 1>CEO and ce IO Schwab Asset Management. Omar, thanks so

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<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. I'm sure your phone is ringing

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<v Speaker 1>off the hook with your Schwab clients saying what do

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<v Speaker 1>I do in this market here? What are you telling

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<v Speaker 1>Schwab clients? Good morning, Thanks for having me And um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know we're we're telling clients to just take a

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<v Speaker 1>deep breath and in a stay of the screen set

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Um. It is is we have we

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<v Speaker 1>have a market that went away from fundamentals to focus

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<v Speaker 1>on mackero and right at this moment, it's really all

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<v Speaker 1>about sentiment. Um. You know, we clearly see significant amount

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<v Speaker 1>of client anxiety, UM, which is very understandable. Um about

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what's going on in the market, what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on in the economy, Um, you know, as you just

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<v Speaker 1>laid out what they see on their house and there

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<v Speaker 1>are gas prices anytime they go to the pump, anytime

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<v Speaker 1>that they go out to a restaurant. You know, they

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<v Speaker 1>clearly see that inflation numbers hitting them on their real

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<v Speaker 1>pockets and then at the time at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>they see everything that is going on overall. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is this is an area where we encourage clients

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<v Speaker 1>to top three advisors to look at their strategy. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a lot of strategies you can use

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<v Speaker 1>to try to minimize any any inside is that you

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<v Speaker 1>may have to do things that may not help you. So, UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I heard Paul Tutor Jones the other day. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure if Critty will know who Paul Tutor Jones is,

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<v Speaker 1>but to those of us who have been on the

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<v Speaker 1>street for a few decades, he is an absolute legend. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>He was saying capital preservation is his number one concern

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<v Speaker 1>right now, which kind of freaked me out a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>I wonder, are your investors reallocating right now or rebalancing

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<v Speaker 1>um in eiver of capital preservation rather than looking for

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<v Speaker 1>any more games? Well where where where that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you take a step back and you know, for

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<v Speaker 1>any of the business and economic cycles that we have

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<v Speaker 1>seen historically, we have clearly accelerated going through the last

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<v Speaker 1>part of the cycle. A lot of that as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of you know, the war in in Ukraine and

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<v Speaker 1>also just the fact that the Federal Reserve has you know,

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<v Speaker 1>probably been slow and reacting to what the inflation numbers

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<v Speaker 1>were going even in the last year. So when you

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<v Speaker 1>put that into perspective, um, you know, this is the

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<v Speaker 1>part where you need to become defensive. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>part where you need to start figure out how you

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<v Speaker 1>increase your duration in your bond portfolio. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>part where you need to be very selective in the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of issues that you have with cash flows, high

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<v Speaker 1>quality areas that will allow you to protect your balance sheet. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that capital preservation it is really a risk profile,

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<v Speaker 1>and the risk profile doesn't necessarily meet the investment objectives

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<v Speaker 1>of every investor. So when we encourage people to see

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<v Speaker 1>is that well, if your objective it still is to grow,

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<v Speaker 1>depending on what your situation is, you just need to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what is the right rebalancing strategy to maintain

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<v Speaker 1>that risk profile that makes you feel comfortable for some people,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, people that are close to retirement, people that

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<v Speaker 1>are in retirement where capital preservation is their main objective.

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<v Speaker 1>Clearly this is an opportunity to de risk, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not necessarily for every investor. So omar one of the

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<v Speaker 1>pieces of chatter I've picked up on the last maybe

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<v Speaker 1>day or two, it's just kind of where's the bottom

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<v Speaker 1>in this thing? In the selling phase here? Do you

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<v Speaker 1>even try to catch the bottom? Do you think about

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<v Speaker 1>identifying the bottom? And if you do, what are some

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<v Speaker 1>of the metrics you look at? Yes, Well, we encourage

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<v Speaker 1>clients to you know, try to speculate. You know, the

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<v Speaker 1>chances that you're going to find the bottom and actually

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<v Speaker 1>be there are very very low. We always, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>have these particular you encourage clients not to try to speculate.

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<v Speaker 1>That's correct, not to try to speculate. We you know,

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<v Speaker 1>market timing it's very very difficult, um And we have

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<v Speaker 1>this phrase that we tell clients, you know, time in

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<v Speaker 1>the market is better that timing the market. And what

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<v Speaker 1>that means is that is staying invested and stay consistent

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<v Speaker 1>with invested risk profile and the long term objectives is

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<v Speaker 1>more important than trying to find, you know, the dips

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<v Speaker 1>and the bottoms of the market and trying to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out where it is now. That being said, markets like

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<v Speaker 1>these provide opportunities for you know, tactless harvesting. This is

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to reallocate within the rest tolerance of every client.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is an opportunity just to find other opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>that they may have not had in the past. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>you know you know why sounds so smart man? You

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<v Speaker 1>want to do PhD from Duke there and you can

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<v Speaker 1>do it. Why, by the way, how much swab asset management?

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<v Speaker 1>Just we got ten seconds here? What are you? What

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<v Speaker 1>are you managing? What are the assets? We're close to

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<v Speaker 1>seven six hundred and ninety billion dollars? Alright, couple sucks

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<v Speaker 1>in the market change that is, oh Mar Aguilar CEO

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<v Speaker 1>and c i O schwab Asset Management PhD from Duke.

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<v Speaker 1>I will add giving us his thoughts on these markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Here again a little bit of bounced back. We're definitely

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<v Speaker 1>off our highest put some green on the screen today.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get to our next guest right away.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh Matt Faster our chief strategy obviously for XPO Logistics,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a publicly traded company on the New York socka Change.

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<v Speaker 1>XPO is the ticker there. It's got about a six

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollar market cap. Matt. One of the key issues

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<v Speaker 1>that Matt Miller and I have been focused on keenly

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<v Speaker 1>since the beginning of this pandemic from an economic perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>has been the supply chain, the global supply chain challenges.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's no company that I can think of that

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<v Speaker 1>has a more broader view of the global supply chain

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<v Speaker 1>than XPO Logistics. So, Matt, thanks so much for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us here. I'd love to get your expert opinion on

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<v Speaker 1>how we got here, i e. Supply chain problems that

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<v Speaker 1>are impacting everybody, and how we get out of this thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me really happy to be here, and

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<v Speaker 1>especially happy to be here on a day after we

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<v Speaker 1>reported strong results and a strong outlook. On your question

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<v Speaker 1>as to how we got here from the supply chain perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>think of it this way. First of all, in very

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<v Speaker 1>early two thousand and twenty, we saw some initial disruption

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<v Speaker 1>as the first round of COVID hit China and you

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<v Speaker 1>had to slow down in UH import and export activity

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<v Speaker 1>from China. We thought at the time that that was

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<v Speaker 1>going to be the crux of the impact. Little did

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<v Speaker 1>we know, obviously, in so many ways subsequent to that, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there was, as you know, virtually a halt in the

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<v Speaker 1>global economy at a moment in time, after which you

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<v Speaker 1>had a resumption of demand. Uh, and you had a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of goods making their way into the United States

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<v Speaker 1>and around the United States with finite capacity. And even

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<v Speaker 1>in a normal demand environment, it's sort of the pick

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<v Speaker 1>of the Python situation. You try to get an enormous

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<v Speaker 1>amount of goods through a fixed amount of infrastructure. Now

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<v Speaker 1>that infrastructure was even more constumed than it otherwise would

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<v Speaker 1>have been, because during the pandemic, lots of providers of

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<v Speaker 1>supply chain services pulled back on their orders of new equipment.

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<v Speaker 1>Beyond that, obviously, you had fiscal stimulus, and there was

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money in people's hands. Moreover, they were

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<v Speaker 1>spending a lot of that money on goods rather than services.

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<v Speaker 1>So you had more goods than usual making their way

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<v Speaker 1>through less infrastructure than usual, all at once. And then finally,

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<v Speaker 1>as you know, whether you call it a great resignation

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<v Speaker 1>or simply a labor shortage, there are fewer people to

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<v Speaker 1>help perform those tasks, so there was less infrastructure, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there was less labor to get the job done, there

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<v Speaker 1>was more demand. There was obviously in that sense, a

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<v Speaker 1>perfect storm. Now our role has been and remains helped

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<v Speaker 1>people are customers and ultimately their customers navigate through that.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's something that we've been able, thankfully to do.

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<v Speaker 1>And obviously your services have been a huge demand. You

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<v Speaker 1>just as you said, published results that beat estimates and

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<v Speaker 1>you raised your outlook as well for the full year.

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<v Speaker 1>Given that UM, you have a really good view of UM,

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<v Speaker 1>the US economy, the global economy. How do you see UM,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you see it developing right now? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously for XPO the picture looks great because the industry

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<v Speaker 1>that you're in, the area that you're in is in

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<v Speaker 1>is in huge demand. What about for the broader economy,

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<v Speaker 1>do you see a slowdown this year? There are cross winds,

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<v Speaker 1>for sure. There are a number of macro factors to

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<v Speaker 1>consider and for them to keep their eye on. The

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<v Speaker 1>said has obviously been has started the process of raising rates.

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<v Speaker 1>That's been an in partner sponse to an inflationary environment.

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<v Speaker 1>That's something we need to watch. There obviously is a

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<v Speaker 1>war in Ukraine, and that's something that we need to watch.

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<v Speaker 1>The Our European business has actually performed quite well. We're

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<v Speaker 1>primarily in the western part of Europe, UK, France, and Spain.

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<v Speaker 1>Organic revenue growth in that part of the world accelerated

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<v Speaker 1>for US in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>And then in China, obviously there have been COVID related

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<v Speaker 1>lockdowns that has led to UH some suspension or slow

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<v Speaker 1>down in the amount of freight making its way to

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<v Speaker 1>our shores from China. Obviously, something we're watching very carefully.

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<v Speaker 1>To our view is that once those lockdowns ease, you'll

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<v Speaker 1>see a flood of freight and certainly nothing like what

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<v Speaker 1>you saw in two thousand twenty that we spoke about

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<v Speaker 1>a moment ago, but potentially some retightening of the truckload

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<v Speaker 1>markets and other transportation markets. So definitely some cross winds

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<v Speaker 1>and things to watch. But if if our business is

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<v Speaker 1>a gauge of what we're seeing in truck brokerage, where

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<v Speaker 1>we were helped arrange truckload transportation UH for for many

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<v Speaker 1>many of the largest shippers in the country and the

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<v Speaker 1>world in the first In the first quarter, our load

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<v Speaker 1>growth was our volume growth has the sixth consecutive quarter

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<v Speaker 1>growth or more. And in April our volume growth was

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<v Speaker 1>quite strong. Our growth and revenue per day, and our

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<v Speaker 1>less than truckload business in April a bit stronger than

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<v Speaker 1>And you really focused the business, right, I mean you

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<v Speaker 1>were for years, for a couple of decades at least

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<v Speaker 1>at Goldman sachs Um and you came in to run XPO.

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<v Speaker 1>Just give us the shorthand version of what you've done

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<v Speaker 1>to to focus m this logistics business. Well, well, well, uh, my, my, my,

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<v Speaker 1>my boss. Brad Jacobs is our chairman, CEO and founders,

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<v Speaker 1>so he runs XPO. I'm the chief strategy officer, So

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<v Speaker 1>I want to put myself in my place, if you will,

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<v Speaker 1>about what we've what we've done, what we've done collectively.

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<v Speaker 1>I appreciate the motion, um, what we've done collectively of

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<v Speaker 1>late to your point, we have refocused the business we

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<v Speaker 1>used to operate within XPO, a supply chain or contract

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<v Speaker 1>logistics business offering warehousing and distribution services also for many

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<v Speaker 1>of the largest companies in the world. We spun that

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<v Speaker 1>company off as g XO last August. They've had a

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<v Speaker 1>very good run. They reported their numbers last week. That

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<v Speaker 1>was a very successful spin, and we are further focusing

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<v Speaker 1>our business. We recently divested our intermodal operation. We sold

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<v Speaker 1>that in March. We've indicated that we planned to divest

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<v Speaker 1>our European transportation operation, the business I spoke about a

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<v Speaker 1>moment ago, and and then also in the fourth quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>we plan on divesting our tech enabled brokera services platform

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<v Speaker 1>into a separate public company, which will leave the remain

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<v Speaker 1>COO if you will, XPO as an lt L enterprise

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<v Speaker 1>and then the brokerage business as a separate public company.

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<v Speaker 1>And what what we what we found through g x

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<v Speaker 1>O and what we expect to find when we complete

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<v Speaker 1>the spin, is that these companies each will be better

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<v Speaker 1>fit for their purposes of serving their customers and able

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<v Speaker 1>to engage in many decisions that are precisely specified to

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<v Speaker 1>their business missions, and we think will be quite successful.

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<v Speaker 1>About thirty seconds left, I love to get your best

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<v Speaker 1>guests as to when these supply chain issues will become

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<v Speaker 1>more normalized. Uh. We think that it's gonna stay tight

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<v Speaker 1>for a while. We think that disruption will persist for

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<v Speaker 1>a while. We think that things actually might tighten up

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<v Speaker 1>a bit more. Again, as I said in the second half,

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<v Speaker 1>if it has great flow resumes from China. Uh. We

0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.839
<v Speaker 1>we are there to help our customers. Were there last

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Christmas to help people get their gifts under their trees.

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Were there to help our industrial customers I get their

0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.600
<v Speaker 1>equipment out there, and and and I think next year

0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 1>you could see some normalization. But I think the value

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:01.640
<v Speaker 1>of outsourced transportation advice answer this says, has been proven

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 1>to show and that should endure. All Right, good stuff,

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:08.200
<v Speaker 1>Matt Fassler, chief strategy officer for XPO Logistics Logistics, giving

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.760
<v Speaker 1>us the latest on the supply chain issues still out there.

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 1>If I were to choose a diesel, a big diesel engine,

0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>I would definitely go with the power stroke. Ford has

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.840
<v Speaker 1>a six point seven Leader power stroke. It's only available

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 1>in the super duty trucks. I wish they sold it

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 1>in the half tons, but it puts out more than

0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 1>a thousand pound feet of torque pound feet unbelievable torque figures. Now.

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>I know Greg Jarrett because he was stuck in some

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:46.200
<v Speaker 1>oil field fires during the First Persian UH, during the

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.760
<v Speaker 1>First Golf War. UM is allergic diesel. He's gonna be

0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 1>very happy when they start putting out electric pickup trucks

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.240
<v Speaker 1>for a long time we thought Teslas was going to

0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.840
<v Speaker 1>make a cyber truck. I'm not sure if that's really

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 1>still happening. I've started to see some Rivyan's um on

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the street. Uh there, you know, a hundred thousand dollar vehicles,

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.720
<v Speaker 1>and they're not really what you think of that work truck,

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.079
<v Speaker 1>you know, although TfL did um use one on on

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.320
<v Speaker 1>on a farm for a little bit. Um. I think

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 1>most people are waiting for Ford to put out the

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 1>F one fifty Lightning. Obviously, the F one fifty or

0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the series pickup truck is like the best selling nameplate

0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>of all not just trucks but cars in the US

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and has been for at least forty years. I'm gonna

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 1>say that's not a joke. Um. Americans by by their

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 1>F Series trucks and absolutely love him. Jason Turnbull joins

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 1>us right now. He is the marketing manager for the

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 1>Lightning and he's been working at Forward for uh the

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.280
<v Speaker 1>better half of the better end of a decade, I

0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 1>should say a little more. I think what thirteen years? Jason,

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 1>great to have you on the program. Tell us when

0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.200
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna actually see this truck. I'm so worried that

0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be like, um, you know, not until because

0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:08.240
<v Speaker 1>the chip shortage and the supply chain issues are are

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 1>making us wait for all these automotive products. Well, thank you,

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 1>thank you for having me. Yeah. So that as the Lightning,

0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>It's are all electric, all electric basic pickup truck. And

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.680
<v Speaker 1>the greatest thing is we announced it two years ago,

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 1>we revealed it a year ago, and starting this month,

0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:32.080
<v Speaker 1>we're actually starting customer deliveries. So it's a real product

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 1>under UNDERT dollars and we're really excited about it this alright.

0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>So I knew, like Mike Lavine is a buddy of

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 1>mine over at Forward and he gets to test the

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.120
<v Speaker 1>coolest all the new products, you know, and I see

0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 1>pictures of him taking the Lightning out to like Moab

0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 1>or on the Baja or whatever. But I didn't know

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 1>that real people we're gonna start, So people are going

0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.920
<v Speaker 1>to start taking deliveries. What's the weight list? Though? If

0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:59.680
<v Speaker 1>I put my order in today for a Lightning, when

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 1>am I gonna be likely to go pick it up

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 1>from my from my four dealer. Yeah. So when we

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>revealed last May, we took reservations and last December we

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.120
<v Speaker 1>hit two hundred thousand reservations. We just had to shut

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.120
<v Speaker 1>off our reservation system because now our goal is to

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 1>fulfill and convert those all the orders. So if you

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.720
<v Speaker 1>don't have to have a have a resonance right now,

0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:27.760
<v Speaker 1>you're really gonna wait probably about eighteen months before that

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 1>you can place in order for a lightning because we're

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.720
<v Speaker 1>later focused on getting them out the door to the

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.800
<v Speaker 1>current customers that have ordered. Jason, I think you just

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.920
<v Speaker 1>answered my question because you know, it's one thing to

0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 1>drive around a Tesla around Coupertino, California. It's another thing

0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to go on my big ranch out in the middle

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 1>of Arizona where I have to do some real work

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 1>with a pickup truck and convert that to electric. Are

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Ford f one fifty buyers are are they ready to

0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:00.560
<v Speaker 1>go electric? So this is a key benefit of definitely

0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 1>like me as we are attracting a broad range of customers.

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:07.640
<v Speaker 1>So from that traditional truck customer, it is gonna tow

0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>and haul just like your current gas du towes up

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:14.199
<v Speaker 1>to ten thousand pounds, halls over two thousand pounds. It

0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 1>will have three range, so it will do the bill

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.359
<v Speaker 1>as well as it passed all their ability capability is

0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>built for tough and at the same time as we

0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>were attracting new to e V and new to Ford

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 1>customers that really want that technology to do. So we

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 1>have that hands free blue cruise highway driving. We have

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 1>onboard scales that actually measures what's in your pickup bed.

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.639
<v Speaker 1>So this product can do all the work stuff and

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>then also is loaded with advanced technology. For me, the

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.320
<v Speaker 1>coolest thing is you can power your house. So here

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 1>in the Northeast we have a lot of storms that

0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 1>knock out power. If you have this thing parked in

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.120
<v Speaker 1>your garage and it's charged, you can use it as

0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.639
<v Speaker 1>as use it as a generator. UM. I still have

0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:02.320
<v Speaker 1>range anxiety though, Jason, and I'm wondering, was there ever

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 1>any thought, even you know, as a as a dealer

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:11.400
<v Speaker 1>add on to offer like a diesel generator to put

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:13.880
<v Speaker 1>in the bed so that I don't have to worry

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.960
<v Speaker 1>about getting to a charging station. Yeah. So when we're

0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 1>developing the product, it was all about efficiency. So the

0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:24.240
<v Speaker 1>way that we package the battery and kind of how

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 1>it's within the frame rails and how it's a parallel system,

0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.439
<v Speaker 1>it is the most efficient. UM And what we found

0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:34.640
<v Speaker 1>is for customers, over of them charge at home. So

0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:38.520
<v Speaker 1>for the most part, you know they can they drive

0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.439
<v Speaker 1>less than that three miles rains a day when you

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:45.200
<v Speaker 1>go on a road trip. That's where EV infrastructure is critical.

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.240
<v Speaker 1>And we really believe that as we grow the footprint,

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:51.239
<v Speaker 1>it will meet our customers needs. So how quickly can

0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 1>you grow the footprint? I mean, um, you know, I

0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.240
<v Speaker 1>live in the great state of Ohio. I'm from there,

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:59.440
<v Speaker 1>thank God, and uh, but I live way out here

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:02.160
<v Speaker 1>in New York, and so I try and get back

0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 1>as much as possible. That's like a six mile trip.

0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.960
<v Speaker 1>I would have to I probably realistically charge up twice

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.320
<v Speaker 1>on the way back. And I'm driving through like legit

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 1>flyover country like I go when you when I go

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.600
<v Speaker 1>through Pennsylvania. Yeah, exactly. Happy Valley is like the only

0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 1>sign of life for six hours. How am I going

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 1>to charge this thing on the way home to Granville? Yeah.

0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>The key thing at Forward is we realize, you know,

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.640
<v Speaker 1>we're not the experts in basically e V basically charging.

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>So what we're doing is we're partnering with all the

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:42.520
<v Speaker 1>major UM charging station so Electry America EV go green lots,

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.920
<v Speaker 1>so to our customer is in our ford past app

0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:50.639
<v Speaker 1>it just kind of looked like Ford foard charges for

0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>charging stations and you can be folly lead the driveway.

0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:56.600
<v Speaker 1>You can plug in your address, your destination and it

0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.720
<v Speaker 1>will automatically tell you what's the most efficient route and

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>here to charge. So our goal is to be, which

0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:05.000
<v Speaker 1>we are right now, the largest EV network because we

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:08.240
<v Speaker 1>partner with all the charting stations, you know, instead of

0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:13.560
<v Speaker 1>going alone. So Jason, as you you know, ramp up

0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 1>your manufacturing gis a sense of supply chain challenges that

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:19.159
<v Speaker 1>you guys are feeling. Here can you get all the

0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.040
<v Speaker 1>chips you need for these evs and and plus the

0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:25.239
<v Speaker 1>old ice. Yeah, So what I can say is, you know,

0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 1>a macro kind of impact in the industry is is

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 1>the tip short at Ford? You know, we're managing that

0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:35.919
<v Speaker 1>as best we can. And lightning is a key product launched,

0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:40.359
<v Speaker 1>so we're prioritizing. So we're laser focused on having a

0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:45.280
<v Speaker 1>on time on track and a quality lawn for lightning Pacifically, dude,

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>that's two laser focused, two times you've focus. This is

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 1>an old phrase that Alan mollally brought to the Ford

0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.159
<v Speaker 1>Motor Company back in the day. I like it. I

0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.240
<v Speaker 1>like it. I'm sure you get points for it. Farley

0:20:57.280 --> 0:21:00.320
<v Speaker 1>Will Farley will allow it. By the way, Jim is

0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:02.600
<v Speaker 1>a good friend of mine, and I'm sure he won't

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:06.240
<v Speaker 1>mind you sharing just with us, just with me and Paul,

0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:10.480
<v Speaker 1>some of your secret plans. I've been driving the Broncho

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.560
<v Speaker 1>around for the last week and it is a ton

0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:16.639
<v Speaker 1>of fun. I gotta say, I'm super impressed by the

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:18.959
<v Speaker 1>two point seven leader V six in there, and I

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.560
<v Speaker 1>hate V six is traditionally. I think it's the most

0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:25.640
<v Speaker 1>boring if you're gonna choose an engine, obviously a V eight, right,

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:28.000
<v Speaker 1>but at least an in line six. They went with

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:29.719
<v Speaker 1>a V on this and I thought, oh no. But

0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:33.480
<v Speaker 1>it's so fast and it's so responsive, so I'm blown away.

0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:37.400
<v Speaker 1>My question, though, is, Jason, when do you go electric?

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:39.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know why you didn't introduce the Bronco as

0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:41.919
<v Speaker 1>an electric vehicle in the first place. How long do

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:43.879
<v Speaker 1>we have to wait for, at the very least, a

0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:48.199
<v Speaker 1>hybrid Bronco. Yeah, so I I can't count on that,

0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:51.000
<v Speaker 1>But what I can tell you is Ford strategies. We're

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:53.479
<v Speaker 1>not just saying we're going electric everything, because we know

0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a sucy in in the oment. There's different usage cases,

0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:02.760
<v Speaker 1>so someone's gonna tow heavyweight long distances frequently a dis

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:08.000
<v Speaker 1>or guest engine will work. Obviously, Bronco is a blasted

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:11.080
<v Speaker 1>drive currently, and we're always looking at kind of feature

0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:15.920
<v Speaker 1>plans electrified, so stay tuned in the future. All right, Jason,

0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:19.200
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us. Jason Turnbull their marketing manager,

0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:23.360
<v Speaker 1>clearly doing an excellent job talking about the F one

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:25.959
<v Speaker 1>fifty Lightning. We're pumped to see that come out. I'm

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.200
<v Speaker 1>also pumped to see an electric Broncho. It's got to happen.

0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:30.720
<v Speaker 1>I heard the Broncos is awesome. Dude, It's so much fun.

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>I've been driving it back and forth to Westchester. I

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:36.679
<v Speaker 1>dropped the top yesterday the sun was out. I'm like

0:22:36.760 --> 0:22:41.440
<v Speaker 1>blasting bad religion flying up the west Side Highway. Super

0:22:41.480 --> 0:22:44.320
<v Speaker 1>super fun. Alright, good stuff. Jason Turbull F one fifty Lightning,

0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:50.320
<v Speaker 1>marketing manager for the Ford Motor Company. I want to

0:22:50.320 --> 0:22:53.040
<v Speaker 1>bring in John Author. She covers all this great economy

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 1>market stuff for Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Opinion. John, you

0:22:57.119 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 1>know we're looking at the markets here. We had to.

0:22:58.840 --> 0:23:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Did you see the top of his colle I did not.

0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>I love it all right, let us I love it.

0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:07.679
<v Speaker 1>Party over Oops, out of time. Oh, I got it.

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Look at him being so hip there, um passing quoting

0:23:13.200 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>a song from forty years ago. But yes, okay, twenty

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.600
<v Speaker 1>three years ago. No, wait, the song was. But it

0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:22.439
<v Speaker 1>must have come out in the eighties, because I remember

0:23:22.520 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I had it was it was it was before Purple Rain.

0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:27.359
<v Speaker 1>I think it was about eighty two or eighty three. Yeah,

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:30.679
<v Speaker 1>it was on the Little Red Corvette album. Uh, what

0:23:30.760 --> 0:23:34.120
<v Speaker 1>a great record. I loved Prince. Not that we're all

0:23:34.160 --> 0:23:36.480
<v Speaker 1>more interested in Prince than what's going on in the

0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:39.080
<v Speaker 1>financial market, so on what is going on in the

0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:41.399
<v Speaker 1>financial markets from your perspective time. Yeah, the point is

0:23:41.400 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 1>you're comparing this to two thousands, so it's rough and

0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:48.880
<v Speaker 1>in some in something well, in some critical respect, it ease.

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:53.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, bear in mind, what what's different? Um Or

0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:56.480
<v Speaker 1>Until recently, I would have said this didn't have that

0:23:56.600 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 1>much in common with two thousand, because that was very

0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:07.560
<v Speaker 1>much an internally financially driven incidents, whereas this time around,

0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:10.960
<v Speaker 1>we're you know, we have a war, we have in

0:24:11.119 --> 0:24:14.080
<v Speaker 1>writing inflation, we have the shock from the pandemic. There

0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 1>were all kinds of very obvious external reasons why why

0:24:19.800 --> 0:24:22.240
<v Speaker 1>they're the markets are being shocked and having to react.

0:24:23.040 --> 0:24:26.880
<v Speaker 1>But what is interesting the last few days, in particular,

0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:30.879
<v Speaker 1>is how this has been about driven about, and the

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:35.400
<v Speaker 1>stock market has been driven all about valuation. It's the

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>most overpriced stocks that have sold off the most period

0:24:40.000 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 1>right the way through the markets that that that relatively

0:24:43.920 --> 0:24:47.440
<v Speaker 1>cheap stocks are barely down. Some of them are actually

0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:50.960
<v Speaker 1>gaining a bit. If wal Mart or you Will Brands

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:54.600
<v Speaker 1>or whatever doing moderately well, and the names that have

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 1>excited people are tanking very very somlicitus and maybe not

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe not enough yet, right John. I heard um Luke

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 1>Kawa was on the Odd Lots podcast on Friday, and

0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:12.639
<v Speaker 1>he said, you know, valuations have come in, um, but uh,

0:25:12.720 --> 0:25:16.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, terminal rate expectations are up a hundred basis points,

0:25:16.040 --> 0:25:21.000
<v Speaker 1>so maybe it's not worth it yet. I would I

0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:25.160
<v Speaker 1>would certainly say that there is no clarity over While

0:25:25.200 --> 0:25:27.880
<v Speaker 1>there isn't clarity over the terminal rate, while there isn't

0:25:27.920 --> 0:25:31.440
<v Speaker 1>clarity over how inflation comes under control, then there can't

0:25:31.440 --> 0:25:37.320
<v Speaker 1>be clarity over an appropriate valuation either. If you look,

0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:40.080
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, I don't want to get too technical,

0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 1>but if you look at the cyclically adjusted pe, which

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:49.440
<v Speaker 1>is Robert Schiller's great invention at university, which has been

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:54.440
<v Speaker 1>very good at predicting medium term returns, like returns over

0:25:54.480 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 1>the next ten years. Then it has come down sharply

0:25:59.240 --> 0:26:01.840
<v Speaker 1>in the last a few months, but it's still almost

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 1>exactly at the level it was at before the Great Crash.

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 1>So we've already been talking about Prince forty years ago,

0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 1>and we're about as expensive us we were almost a

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:19.480
<v Speaker 1>hundred years ago before that's crash. But by the way,

0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:22.119
<v Speaker 1>in particular reason of evaluation for things to stop selling

0:26:22.119 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 1>off now, and who knows what was on the charts,

0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:28.280
<v Speaker 1>then yes I don't. By the way, I wonder what

0:26:28.400 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 1>you how do you explain to a layman um like

0:26:33.200 --> 0:26:38.440
<v Speaker 1>me why rising rates are bad for these you know,

0:26:38.880 --> 0:26:44.200
<v Speaker 1>growthy text docs, for these disruptive innovators? Why is why

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:48.160
<v Speaker 1>are rising rates necessarily bad for you know, a Netflix

0:26:48.440 --> 0:26:53.359
<v Speaker 1>or maybe even an Amazon? What's the relationship there? Okay,

0:26:53.440 --> 0:26:56.800
<v Speaker 1>if your gross is in the future, if you if

0:26:56.800 --> 0:26:59.800
<v Speaker 1>all your earnings are in the future, you're not turning

0:26:59.840 --> 0:27:04.400
<v Speaker 1>out earnings regularly now, But all the hopes reasonably enough,

0:27:04.440 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 1>but all the hopes are for growth in the future,

0:27:08.000 --> 0:27:13.240
<v Speaker 1>then you need in any discounted cash flow analysis through

0:27:13.400 --> 0:27:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to account for the time value of money and discount

0:27:16.680 --> 0:27:23.040
<v Speaker 1>those future flows by a reasonable interest rate. In Layman's terms,

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.399
<v Speaker 1>money in the future isn't worth as much as money

0:27:26.520 --> 0:27:31.360
<v Speaker 1>is today. That's worth in the future declines as interest

0:27:31.480 --> 0:27:35.880
<v Speaker 1>rates rise, So if all your value is in the future,

0:27:37.040 --> 0:27:42.240
<v Speaker 1>higher rates will clover your valuation. Meanwhile, if you're mules

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:48.480
<v Speaker 1>brands making rubber made and sharpies and stuff, your valuation

0:27:48.560 --> 0:27:51.400
<v Speaker 1>is centered in the here and now and rates don't

0:27:51.440 --> 0:27:54.000
<v Speaker 1>matter anything like so much. John, if I'm a glass

0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:58.160
<v Speaker 1>half empty person, is it fair to say these markets

0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:02.360
<v Speaker 1>aren't going to rebound until industrate stuff one up? Still

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:06.160
<v Speaker 1>we're confident in terms of are they going to make

0:28:06.200 --> 0:28:11.280
<v Speaker 1>a firm rebounds and get above get above the levels

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:12.720
<v Speaker 1>they were at at the turn of the year. I

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:15.879
<v Speaker 1>don't see how that can happen until we have clarity

0:28:16.560 --> 0:28:20.600
<v Speaker 1>about where interest rates are headed. No, I that doesn't

0:28:20.600 --> 0:28:23.679
<v Speaker 1>mean that I doubt it. But it's possible that the

0:28:23.720 --> 0:28:25.919
<v Speaker 1>bottom is already in. But in terms of a really

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:30.240
<v Speaker 1>strong recovery to the levels that we've seen in the

0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:33.520
<v Speaker 1>seen as recently as the turn of the year, we

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:38.240
<v Speaker 1>need to know how bad inflation and the interest rates

0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 1>are going to get. Yeah, you need to know what

0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the Fed is going to do before you can price

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 1>it in, right, and and and the fad itself doesn't

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 1>know because the Fed itself doesn't know exactly how bad

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:50.479
<v Speaker 1>the inflation problem and how quickly it will come under control.

0:28:50.640 --> 0:28:53.880
<v Speaker 1>So I don't see a way. I'm sure there are

0:28:53.880 --> 0:28:55.960
<v Speaker 1>plenty of ways I'm not thinking of where people can

0:28:56.040 --> 0:29:00.760
<v Speaker 1>make money over the next few months. Um. In terms

0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 1>of a sustained clear buying opportunity taking us up to

0:29:05.200 --> 0:29:08.520
<v Speaker 1>new levels, I don't see how that's possible in the

0:29:08.560 --> 0:29:10.760
<v Speaker 1>next few months. Somebody clever up there is going to

0:29:10.800 --> 0:29:13.920
<v Speaker 1>make money in the next few months. They always do. Um.

0:29:13.960 --> 0:29:16.560
<v Speaker 1>But in terms of a secular uplift to the stock

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:20.440
<v Speaker 1>market of the kind we've been become accustomed to, that

0:29:20.440 --> 0:29:23.680
<v Speaker 1>that can't happen until we know what's happening with the

0:29:24.040 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 1>with inflation in rates. Well, you've got to be able

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 1>to see who lives through this if we have the

0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:31.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of drops like we had in at the end

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>of the Internet bubble. I remember a buddy of mine

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:36.640
<v Speaker 1>was working at bat Alex Brown and he said, I

0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:39.880
<v Speaker 1>don't care. Um, if you think all these you know,

0:29:40.000 --> 0:29:44.520
<v Speaker 1>revenue churning tech companies are worthless. I think Amazon is

0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:47.120
<v Speaker 1>still going to be a big behemoth someday. And I

0:29:47.200 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>always think about that because I should have bought Amazon

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:52.840
<v Speaker 1>when he was telling me. But we still I mean,

0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>the cruel math part of this is bt Alex Brown

0:29:58.280 --> 0:30:00.880
<v Speaker 1>that he is known to its friends of Deutsche Bank. Yeah. Yeah.

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:04.120
<v Speaker 1>The poor math thing is we have to in order

0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:06.400
<v Speaker 1>to get back to the turn of the year, we've

0:30:06.400 --> 0:30:08.400
<v Speaker 1>got to climb so much further than we've fallen because

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the denominator is smaller now, right, Um, the Nasdaq has

0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:16.800
<v Speaker 1>lost like, but it's got to go up to get

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:20.240
<v Speaker 1>back to where it was on January third, Math, Yes,

0:30:20.840 --> 0:30:24.960
<v Speaker 1>uh and uh. At some point that probably will happen,

0:30:25.320 --> 0:30:30.200
<v Speaker 1>but it's unlikely to happen this year unless inflation comes

0:30:30.640 --> 0:30:36.640
<v Speaker 1>really rapidly under control without hurting growth. So to that end,

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:39.080
<v Speaker 1>see how that can happen. So when we get the

0:30:39.080 --> 0:30:40.960
<v Speaker 1>CPI did it, tomar John, what what? What do you

0:30:40.960 --> 0:30:44.760
<v Speaker 1>think we should really be focusing on? You should be

0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:50.040
<v Speaker 1>focusing on rents, which is the big element that most

0:30:50.200 --> 0:30:54.400
<v Speaker 1>worries people that that um, that's a third of the index,

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:57.640
<v Speaker 1>and for one reason another it tends to show up

0:30:57.680 --> 0:31:01.080
<v Speaker 1>in in the CPI with a leg uh. And it's

0:31:01.080 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>been relatively under control and is now rising. So that

0:31:05.120 --> 0:31:09.880
<v Speaker 1>is a critical issue. Um. And beyond that, take a

0:31:09.960 --> 0:31:15.680
<v Speaker 1>look at the trimmed mean of inflation, where you remove

0:31:15.800 --> 0:31:21.760
<v Speaker 1>outliers in both directions. But by the way, it's lately Sorry, well,

0:31:21.800 --> 0:31:23.800
<v Speaker 1>I was gonna say, we're we're about to have to

0:31:23.960 --> 0:31:26.160
<v Speaker 1>listen to President Biden come out and talking to talk

0:31:26.200 --> 0:31:30.840
<v Speaker 1>about inflation. I can see the background, um behind his podium.

0:31:30.840 --> 0:31:33.520
<v Speaker 1>It says lowering costs and tackling inflation, which I'm sure

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:37.160
<v Speaker 1>he wants voters to think that he's doing. Um. This

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>brings very little he can do, certainly decide of the midsterms.

0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:43.080
<v Speaker 1>There's more or less nothing he can do. But it's

0:31:43.080 --> 0:31:45.800
<v Speaker 1>a It's a rule of politics, isn't it you If

0:31:45.840 --> 0:31:48.600
<v Speaker 1>you're the one in charge when the economy goes sour,

0:31:48.680 --> 0:31:52.080
<v Speaker 1>it's yours. It doesn't matter how much money the federal

0:31:52.160 --> 0:31:55.840
<v Speaker 1>government was spending even before he came into office, exactly. John,

0:31:56.000 --> 0:31:58.520
<v Speaker 1>I want to just finally ask you what your take

0:31:58.680 --> 0:32:03.200
<v Speaker 1>is on the housing market and interest rates, because we

0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 1>saw a mortgage rates climb to. I think at the

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:08.720
<v Speaker 1>end of last week it was already five point three percent,

0:32:09.360 --> 0:32:13.240
<v Speaker 1>and at least anecdotally, I have heard first time buyers

0:32:13.520 --> 0:32:16.320
<v Speaker 1>scared out of the market or people selling their homes

0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:20.440
<v Speaker 1>say well, we better lower the price now. Um is it?

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:24.440
<v Speaker 1>Is it problematic because you know, we've seen this huge

0:32:24.560 --> 0:32:28.600
<v Speaker 1>land grab and prices are unbelievable, there's no inventory, and

0:32:28.640 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 1>now you've got mortgage rates rising. Yes, it's it's very problematic.

0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:39.000
<v Speaker 1>And this is the big difference, bad difference from two thousands.

0:32:39.680 --> 0:32:42.880
<v Speaker 1>In the two thousand was an equity market bubble, a

0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>massive one, but it wasn't a housing market bubble as well.

0:32:47.240 --> 0:32:49.680
<v Speaker 1>This time we have something that looks as though it

0:32:49.760 --> 0:32:53.520
<v Speaker 1>might even be a bubble in American housing. Now. There's

0:32:53.560 --> 0:32:57.840
<v Speaker 1>one huge advantage that the US has compared to almost

0:32:57.880 --> 0:33:00.640
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world, which is that America for

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 1>years have preferred fixed rate mortgages. I happen to be

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:08.760
<v Speaker 1>looking into piece of research, so something like from Deutsche

0:33:08.760 --> 0:33:12.080
<v Speaker 1>Bank that shows that only about two percent of US

0:33:12.120 --> 0:33:17.000
<v Speaker 1>mortgages are on variable rates. In the UK, it's more

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:20.479
<v Speaker 1>like forty In Australia, Italy, Germany, We're talking about more

0:33:20.520 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 1>than are variable, so the impact of rising mortgages takes

0:33:26.520 --> 0:33:31.440
<v Speaker 1>longer to affect house prices here than it does in

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:36.479
<v Speaker 1>the other developed economies. But plainly, at this point it's uh,

0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:41.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is overextended and people have been making

0:33:41.520 --> 0:33:46.080
<v Speaker 1>their calculations on the assumption that money would stay phenomenally

0:33:46.200 --> 0:33:50.400
<v Speaker 1>historically cheap and it isn't anymore. So, yes, it's very concerning.

0:33:50.640 --> 0:33:53.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, John Authors, thank you so much. We appreciate that.

0:33:53.120 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 1>John Author's covers global markets and investments and the Red

0:33:55.960 --> 0:33:59.760
<v Speaker 1>so Thanks Bloomberg News and Bloinion. Rents really a year

0:33:59.800 --> 0:34:01.560
<v Speaker 1>for the right. He sounds like a soccer fan, I know,

0:34:01.680 --> 0:34:04.240
<v Speaker 1>but he's a big Red Sox guy. I didn't know that. Yeah. Absolutely,

0:34:05.880 --> 0:34:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:34:09.040 --> 0:34:12.800
<v Speaker 1>subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:16.560
<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:20.319
<v Speaker 1>at Matt Miller three and on Fall Sweeney I'm on

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:23.240
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can always

0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 1>catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.