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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about these markets here.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's been around triple in the equity markets,

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Speaker 3: bonds are hanging in there, feels like we're in a

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Speaker 3: trading range.

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Speaker 2: The dollar nobody wants to buy the dollar.

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Speaker 3: The gold higher yet again, thirty four hundred bucks close

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Speaker 3: to and bitdog. I mean, is Tom kean to like

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Speaker 3: to say that's higher as well? So it seems like

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Speaker 3: people are rulling to take some risk out there. Let's

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Speaker 3: talk to us a professional who does this stuff for

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Speaker 3: a living. Mona Mahajan, Senior investment strategist for Edward Jones. Mona,

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Speaker 3: what are the conversations like when you go on the

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Speaker 3: road talking to your institutional investor clients at Edward Jones.

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Speaker 2: What's the conver station these days? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: And you know, over nine million households as clients. We

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Speaker 4: have twenty thousand financial advisors across North America. Every county

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Speaker 4: now in North America represent in the US representaation.

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Speaker 2: Edward Jones is based in Saint Louis.

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Speaker 5: Based in Saint Louis.

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Speaker 4: Wow, they've been r one hundred and two years, so yes,

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Speaker 4: to your point, you know, look, we were down twenty

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Speaker 4: percent earlier in the year. There was some anxiety building

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Speaker 4: around the tariffs, and to your point, as we pulled

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Speaker 4: tariffs back, or as the administration pulled tariffs back, and

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Speaker 4: as the economic data actually is surprised to the upside

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Speaker 4: for the large part, whether it was earnings growth GDP

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Speaker 4: now looking quite strong, labor market hanging in there. We

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Speaker 4: saw this round trip nearly now over twenty percent rally

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Speaker 4: in the S and P five hundred.

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Speaker 5: And I think.

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Speaker 4: Investors really want to know our investors are long term investors.

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Speaker 4: But one, should they still be in the tech magnificent

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Speaker 4: seven trade? That's a question that comes up often. And two,

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Speaker 4: how should they think about bonds here? And I think

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Speaker 4: that's one that will continue to come up. I know

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Speaker 4: we have a couple of interesting auctions later today, but

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Speaker 4: generally speaking, we say at four and a half percent,

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Speaker 4: you know, we always refer to that Tina trade. There

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Speaker 4: is no alternative US treasury market, deepest most liquid market

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Speaker 4: in the world, very regulated and offering interesting yield for

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Speaker 4: those long term investors.

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Speaker 6: We get CPI in just like two minutes. Are you

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Speaker 6: expecting it in anything?

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Speaker 4: You know, We're hopeful that it comes in line with

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Speaker 4: what consensus is. We will probably see a slight tick

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Speaker 4: up on headline and core CPI this month, but keep

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Speaker 4: in mind energy prices versus last year at least have

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Speaker 4: come down substantially. And the other thing we like to

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Speaker 4: point out, remember that two thirds of the CPI basket

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Speaker 4: is actually services inflation. And so while we are talking

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Speaker 4: about tariffs and trade that primarily impacts goods inflation about

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Speaker 4: a third of the CPI basket. But if we are

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Speaker 4: seeing a bit of cooling, you know, consumers maybe not

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Speaker 4: taking as many vacations or eating out as much, that

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Speaker 4: services number will cool as well.

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Speaker 3: What is the Edward Jones kind of economic call, be

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Speaker 3: guys thinking recession or we've kind of we've avoided that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, our base case continues to be no

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Speaker 4: recession and cooling an economic growth. Certainly, we were above

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Speaker 4: trend last couple of years, like two and a half percent,

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Speaker 4: really nice last year. Could we get a few quarters

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Speaker 4: as tariffs do settle in as consumers, maybe it's offten

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Speaker 4: a bit in the next couple of quarters below a

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Speaker 4: trend growth, so maybe sub two and a half two percent, absolutely,

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Speaker 4: but we don't yet see that negative GDP growth number emerging.

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Speaker 6: This actually looks like a pretty positive report. I mean,

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Speaker 6: inflation still has you know, that two handle on a

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Speaker 6: year on year basis, but it is lower, which means

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Speaker 6: that we're not seeing necessarily that feed through from any tariffs.

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Speaker 6: And then if you have the removal or an agreement

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Speaker 6: of tariffs and trade between China and the US, is

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Speaker 6: that remove another headwind all together. And that's sort of

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Speaker 6: why now we're seeing futures having a nice pop now

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Speaker 6: within the market.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if Michael mckeeber was sitting here, I

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Speaker 2: don't know where he is, by the way, he's on TV.

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Speaker 2: Oh he's on TV. There he goes, I'd say.

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Speaker 3: Hey, man, where's the inflation. I thought with all this

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Speaker 3: tariff stuff, there'd be some inflation.

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Speaker 2: I think he's proud of respond. You don't know. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're going to see it.

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Speaker 3: If we're going to see it, you will probably see

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Speaker 3: it sometime later in the summer. In July data, maybe

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Speaker 3: August data, I don't know. We're joined here by Mona Mahadgen,

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Speaker 3: Senior investment strategist Edward Jones.

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Speaker 2: She is in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, Mona. When

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Speaker 2: you see a.

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Speaker 3: Benign inflation print like this, does it give you a

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Speaker 3: sense that maybe this economy and maybe some of these

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Speaker 3: companies are going to be in a better position.

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Speaker 2: Then maybe we've maybe initially feared.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, A couple of things keep come to

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Speaker 4: mind when I see this type of print. Number one,

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Speaker 4: it does look like, as we just talked about, the

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Speaker 4: services side of the inflation print came out slightly softer

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Speaker 4: than expected. So as we talked about two thirds of

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Speaker 4: the basket is services, and if that part of the

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Speaker 4: economy is starting to just cool a bit, that will

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Speaker 4: be reflected in the broader CPI basket, I think a

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Speaker 4: two handle. To your point, we're still closer to that

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Speaker 4: two percent target than we were really any time over

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Speaker 4: the last year or so, so that is also probably

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Speaker 4: a benign factor as we think about inflation. But I'll

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Speaker 4: finally also note as we think about companies and how

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Speaker 4: they're managing tariffs, certainly during this period of pause, it

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Speaker 4: is possible that companies continue to build inventories, and as

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Speaker 4: they are building inventories, they don't have to then pass

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Speaker 4: through as much of that price increase, and so we

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Speaker 4: could see you know a lot of companies even thinking

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Speaker 4: about Christmas inventories. If that continues between now in July,

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Speaker 4: companies have adjusted their innovative they find a way around

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Speaker 4: some of these headwinds that we see in the economy.

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Speaker 6: Does that hurt them later though, if the consumer winds

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Speaker 6: up getting hurt and they're stuck with all that inventory.

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Speaker 4: You know, it will come down to consumer resilience. And

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Speaker 4: thus far consumption has held in there. We look at

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Speaker 4: second quarter GDP, potentially consumption looks above two percent higher

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Speaker 4: than the first quarter. So we are seeing a consumer

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Speaker 4: that's relatively resilient. But yes, overbuilding inventories can come back

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Speaker 4: to bite you, but from a consumer perspective, it's not

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Speaker 4: a bad place to be. They're not going to experience

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Speaker 4: some of this dramatic move.

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Speaker 6: And tariffs that we might have seen because you know

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Speaker 6: what overbuilding inventory means for me.

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Speaker 7: Paul, see there it is, yeah, and we all know

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Speaker 7: Alex and her sales not one of the seventy three

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Speaker 7: forecasters in Bloomberg survey had penciled in a zero point

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Speaker 7: one percent core CPI increased.

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Speaker 3: That's according to Chris Anstey, senior editor for Bloomberg News

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Speaker 3: on the Top Live, which is just awesome by the way, folks.

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Speaker 2: You've got a Bloomberg from On.

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Speaker 3: The Top Live folks, and when big stuff crosses to

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Speaker 3: take they're all over.

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Speaker 2: So mona, just real quick, We'll let you go.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, does this you know, kind of a

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Speaker 3: little bit more of a benign inflation outlook?

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Speaker 2: Does it kind of change the.

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Speaker 3: Way you guys are going to be talking to your

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Speaker 3: clients in every county of the United States.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Look, I think this one print alone

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Speaker 4: doesn't change the overall narrative. What we will say is

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Speaker 4: we're up twenty percent plus in a pretty short period

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Speaker 4: of time. Could we get more bounts of volatility ahead, Absolutely,

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Speaker 4: especially as we digest some of this summer news, you know,

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Speaker 4: post ninety day pause, et cetera. But as we look

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Speaker 4: towards the back half of the year, we do think

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Speaker 4: the setup back half into twenty six is not bad.

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Speaker 4: You know, we're seeing potentially a FED that could be

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Speaker 4: cutting rates. We are seeing ten a tax bill that

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Speaker 4: is in place and supporting on the fiscal front as well,

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Speaker 4: and then of course companies will have a little bit

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Speaker 4: more certainty in the earnings profile may reaccelerate in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty six. So we do think volatility can provide some

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Speaker 4: opportunities for our investors.

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Speaker 3: Well, you want smart equity talk here, Alex in this

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Speaker 3: studio right now, two of my all time phaves in

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Speaker 3: terms of equity strategy, Mona Mahadjen Senior investment strategist Aaric Jones,

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Speaker 3: and Gina Martin Adams and Bloomberg Intelligence doing the same thing.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it doesn't get any better than that. Mona,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate you coming

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Speaker 3: into our studio. Gina read on this inflation data. I

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Speaker 3: don't know I'm blaming Michael McKee here. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 3: there's no inflation, it seems like in this market.

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Speaker 8: No, And certainly the disceleration and services inflation is great

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Speaker 8: news broadly. I think, frankly, what matters and oftentimes gets

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Speaker 8: overlooked though, is the difference between producer price inflation and prices. Yeah,

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Speaker 8: this is something that we spend a lot of time

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Speaker 8: on is Okay, Sure, the headline level of CPI, you

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Speaker 8: want to pay attention to it, But the only real

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Speaker 8: reason to pay attention to it is because of the

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Speaker 8: FED and the implications for valuations. So this is valuation

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Speaker 8: supportive because it doesn't suggest the FED is going to

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Speaker 8: have to hike anytime soon. It may even support the

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Speaker 8: ease that is now priced into markets coming later this year.

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Speaker 8: But what will matter for profits is how does this

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Speaker 8: compare to PPI coming out tomorrow?

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Speaker 2: And so what do you think.

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Speaker 6: He guy is higher? Then we get a margin squeeze.

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Speaker 8: Right, yeah, we start to get a margin squeeze, and

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Speaker 8: that's frankly where we've been for the last several consecutive months.

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Speaker 8: It's just a tiny bit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I know switching, I know she did

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Speaker 2: the whole thing.

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Speaker 6: He was walking one out of the studio.

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Speaker 3: I know.

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Speaker 8: I know it is important for the FED, right, it

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Speaker 8: is important for valuations, But ultimately we care about where

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Speaker 8: profits are going, and we care about what's happening with

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Speaker 8: margins and companies are you know, despite what you know,

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Speaker 8: this low CPI is not a great sign of what

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Speaker 8: companies are contending with. When PPI is accelerating faster. So

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Speaker 8: you've got a little bit of margin pressure that has

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Speaker 8: emerged over the course of twenty twenty five. It is

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Speaker 8: likely to contain depending upon what we see in PPI tomorrow.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, So where do you think the industries are

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Speaker 6: going to be that have that margin.

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Speaker 8: Ability to control some degree of pricing of power. So far,

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Speaker 8: and we've certainly seen this after the tariff pause, it's

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Speaker 8: all Mag seven, right. If you look at the divergence

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Speaker 8: that has existed so far in the post tariff pause world,

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Speaker 8: it is companies outside of the MAG seven are experiencing

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Speaker 8: the greatest acceleration and earnings growth prospects. Inside the MAG

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Speaker 8: seven you still have that big moat. As a result,

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Speaker 8: the market has gone back to sort of pre twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty five trends and started to excessively price the stability

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Speaker 8: of the Mag seven earning stream. So where you this

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Speaker 8: is a very consistency theme over the last two to

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Speaker 8: three years, is any time we enter a period of

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Speaker 8: strain on earnings, investors believe just rush right back into

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Speaker 8: MAG seven because they do have some degree of stability,

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Speaker 8: They do have an incredible amount of cash, They generate

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Speaker 8: a lot of cash flow. They have relatively sticky margins,

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Speaker 8: but you get to a point where this group is

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Speaker 8: priced so excessively relative to the rest of the index,

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Speaker 8: and an he tweaks around the margin. Let's say we

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Speaker 8: get an easier PPI number tomorrow, that's actually great news

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Speaker 8: for the non mag seven. Any sort of tariff resolution

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Speaker 8: great news for the non Mag seven. So I think

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Speaker 8: you want to really play this as a MAG seven

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Speaker 8: versus x Mag seven trade, which started to emerge as

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Speaker 8: a real possibility in twenty twenty four, got squeezed out

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Speaker 8: by the tariff pause. As the tariff pause ends, we

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Speaker 8: might see the non Mag seven start to come back

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Speaker 8: to life.

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Speaker 3: Let's see what factors are you guys focusing on these

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Speaker 3: days to leave it there, Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, so the factors. Our factor strategy is run

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Speaker 8: by our con strategist, Chris Kaney. Just updated this, just

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Speaker 8: updated this late late last week, and one of the

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Speaker 8: things that just continues to shine in factor land is

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Speaker 8: low volatility stocks. It's kind of unbelievable, but even in

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Speaker 8: last year's rally in the equity market, low vall was

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Speaker 8: the best performing and just stuck at the top of

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Speaker 8: our factor scoring methodology. It still is at the top

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Speaker 8: of the scorecard. It's not terribly expensive to buy low

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Speaker 8: volatility stocks. It's all sector adjusted, so we sector neutralize

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Speaker 8: all our factors. But it means low volatility. It just

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Speaker 8: means how do the stock prices behave in an environment

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Speaker 8: where volatility is on trend rising from lows made back

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Speaker 8: in early late twenty twenty three early twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 8: It makes sense that lower volatility stacks would probably perform better.

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Speaker 8: They tend to also have better earnings revision momentum than

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Speaker 8: the rest of the index. They are more stable as

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Speaker 8: a general rule, and that stability is definitely shining in

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Speaker 8: today's world of volatility.

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Speaker 6: Before we let you go, do you think the equity

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Speaker 6: market is at risk for a melt up? As we

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Speaker 6: got the trade headlines today, we got the CPI, what

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Speaker 6: do you.

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Speaker 8: Think, Well, we've had an extra ary melt up already.

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Speaker 8: So when we look at what's really driven the equity

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Speaker 8: market since the tariff pause, it's been almost entirely technical.

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Speaker 8: So we can plot across global equity markets buy beta.

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Speaker 8: The higher beta markets have performed best. That would include,

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Speaker 8: of course, the S and P five hundred, especially the

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Speaker 8: MAG seven which tend to be generally higher beta than

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Speaker 8: the rest of the global equity markets. I think that

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Speaker 8: trade is largely coming to an end, and the next

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Speaker 8: layer of improvement in the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 8: probably has to be driven by one of two things.

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Speaker 8: Either of much better than expected recovery in the economy

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Speaker 8: because we get tariff resolution emerges and that drives rotation

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Speaker 8: into some of the higher volatility value type shares that

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Speaker 8: have really lagged in the recovery, or you get some

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Speaker 8: sort of fetties coming. If you get a fetties, there

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Speaker 8: certainly is room for more advancement in some of the

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Speaker 8: underappreciated segments of the index as well. So I think

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Speaker 8: you'll see the market rotate to new drivers. Clearly in

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Speaker 8: the post sort of the pause regime, it's been all beta,

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Speaker 8: it's been almost all technical. There's not been a great

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Speaker 8: fundamental case to kind of jump back into stocks. We've

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Speaker 8: repriced back to our pre tariff levels. We are, you know,

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Speaker 8: now up on the year, so we can maybe move

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Speaker 8: into an environment of rationality going forward. But we'll see.

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Speaker 3: I think there's more downside the upside. Yeah, if I

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Speaker 3: were to tell you that, what would you how would

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Speaker 3: you would you argue me, are.

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Speaker 8: You well your yeah, your suspicions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's still tires out there, yeah, like triple or

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Speaker 3: more than we had before.

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Speaker 8: You're what you're That statement is basically accurately reflecting what's

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Speaker 8: in our models, right. Our models are saying, fundamentally, there's

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Speaker 8: not a huge case for this. Right, We're in a

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Speaker 8: regime according to our market regime model as well as

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Speaker 8: our economic regime model, that we should expect very low

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Speaker 8: single digit returns in twenty twenty five. As a general rule,

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Speaker 8: we're there now. We just need to see some other

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Speaker 8: something change in order to justify a greater upside. I'm

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Speaker 8: always open to that. Remember, the default direction of stocks

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Speaker 8: is higher, so you have to keep that in the

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Speaker 8: back of your head at all times. Usually, to see

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Speaker 8: stocks correct to the downside, you need to see some

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Speaker 8: trigger manifest right now. That trigger very easily could be

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Speaker 8: weaker than expected economic growth, which emerges into the second

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Speaker 8: half of this year as well.

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Speaker 2: You're so right about just stocks up into the right

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Speaker 2: long term.

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Speaker 3: When I was very early in my career, I was

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Speaker 3: the third analyst covering America Online, so the third analysts

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Speaker 3: covering the Internet on Wall Street and I put a

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Speaker 3: by on it. I had no idea what I was doing.

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Speaker 3: I put a bio on It kept going up, up up.

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Speaker 2: But there's a big, big.

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Speaker 3: Short seller, I won't tell you his name, huge short seller,

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Speaker 3: and he was getting crushed and he called me.

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Speaker 2: Ten times a day. So what are you doing? What

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Speaker 2: do you do? So calls terrible? I'm like, I don't know, man.

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Speaker 2: The market's going up, stocks going up. Shorting stocks is

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Speaker 2: a tough very hard to make a living.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, very hard business.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, all right, but I remembered that that's it's kind

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Speaker 3: of go up into it right by and large.

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Speaker 2: All right, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 3: Geena Martin Adams, she is equity strategist for bloom Market

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Speaker 3: TELM appreciate getting Gena's time here in our studios. Let's

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Speaker 3: switch some stocks to bonds, Winning Season, Global head of

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Speaker 3: strategy for credit sites. So when do you see, I

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Speaker 3: guess kind of a benign ish kind of CPI number today?

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Speaker 3: What does that mean for your world of credit?

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Speaker 9: Sure, it's been a very benign number for CPI. I

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Speaker 9: do think that Gina Martin Adam's point around CPI versus

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Speaker 9: PPI and the read through to corporate profit margins is important,

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Speaker 9: but from a broad based macro perspective, it does seem

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Speaker 9: like the market is kind of coalescing along the lines

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Speaker 9: of the FED being on hold is actually an okay

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Speaker 9: thing for credit spreads, as you won't have seen a

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Speaker 9: big shift hire in inflation or a big downdraft in

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Speaker 9: the labor market, and that really allows spreads to just

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Speaker 9: kind of chug along as technicals continue to drive. Apparently

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Speaker 9: every financial market seems like all that liquidity we injected

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Speaker 9: into the system during COVID during twenty twenty one is

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Speaker 9: still having some long lasting effects.

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Speaker 6: So the reaction in the market to CPI was clear,

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Speaker 6: it was by the front end. This sort of clears

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Speaker 6: the runway a little bit for the FED to cut.

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Speaker 6: Do you think that that's a real good takeaway.

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Speaker 9: I think that it's a tricky takeaway. You know, we

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Speaker 9: are still very early in the tariff game. Who knows

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Speaker 9: where we're going to end up From an inflationary perspective.

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Speaker 9: I think also the fiscal side of the story, when

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Speaker 9: we think about incremental text breaks, which are retroactive to

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Speaker 9: twenty twenty five, that could be a little bit inflationary

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Speaker 9: as well. So to look at this one CPI report

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Speaker 9: and say, hey, we're in the clear. That makes me

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Speaker 9: a little bit hesitant. You know, I don't think that

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Speaker 9: the Fed is going to be looking at one report

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Speaker 9: and saying, okay, now we can begin to ease rates.

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Speaker 9: Although I do think that next week's messaging may be

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Speaker 9: a little bit more balanced now that we do have

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Speaker 9: a little bit more data under our belts.

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Speaker 3: So again, you can sit there winning, you know, a

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Speaker 3: ten year treasury four point four five percent roughly more

358
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Speaker 3: or less. Is that a place to kind of hang

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Speaker 3: your hat or you go on and take some credit risks,

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Speaker 3: because I do know that the best performance in fixed

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Speaker 3: income once again this year is US high yield.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's really interesting, and we have gotten a little

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Speaker 9: bit more comfortable with taking some duration risk within the

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Speaker 9: treasury market. We put that view out a couple of

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Speaker 9: weeks ago as long un yields kind of spiraled to

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Speaker 9: recent high levels. They've come down a little bit since then.

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Speaker 9: Credit is a little bit trickier, you know, when we

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00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 9: think about high yield especially, we're seeing very strong performance

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00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 9: from higher quality high yield. So the double b issuers,

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Speaker 9: the single be issuers who are going concerns with very

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00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,879
Speaker 9: limited near term liquidity needs. But within the world of

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Speaker 9: triple c's, there's been some pretty significant lagging as all

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00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 9: in borrowing costs are still pretty prohibitive to a number

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Speaker 9: of companies. You're still seeing some idiosyncratic sectors that are

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Speaker 9: being a bit stressed, some big issuers that are still

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Speaker 9: facing some pressure. And so to just say, hey, wave

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00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,199
Speaker 9: in all the credits, how yield looks good is a

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Speaker 9: little bit tricky, especially when we think about trying to

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Speaker 9: put together a portfolio that has a seven and a

380
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 9: half percent yield, which is pretty much where high yield

381
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 9: and aggregate is right now. You have to really be

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00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 9: taking some pretty significant risk, and that is a much

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Speaker 9: more challenging proposition, I would say right now, given this

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Speaker 9: still persistent uncertainty that we have within markets.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you're the bond person, so you're supposed to

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Speaker 6: be worried and pessimistic. Do you know, is the equity

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Speaker 6: person she's supposed to be up into the right at

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Speaker 6: the end of the day, where's the biggest miss price

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Speaker 6: within the fixed income market?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 9: I think that the biggest miss price is actually the

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00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 9: relative value of agency mortgage backed securities. Versus us investment

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Speaker 9: grade corporates. When we look at the long term history

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Speaker 9: of that relative value, MBS is screening wildly cheap right now.

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Speaker 9: And I realized there are a lot of factors, you know,

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Speaker 9: perhaps Fanny and Freddy exiting conservatorship, going back into the

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00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 9: private sectors making people nervous. There are some home building

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Speaker 9: and housing headwinds. But when we think about that relative

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00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 9: value and the downside outperformance NBS usually has relative to

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00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 9: investment grade corporates, we are scratching our heads a little bit.

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00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 2: Credit risk that.

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00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 3: Has not been a concern for credit investors really since

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00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 3: a great financial crisis, the pandemic.

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00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 2: How do you think about credit risk here?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, credit risk is interesting, and I would say that

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Speaker 9: we've had a few bouts of credit risk. We did

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Speaker 9: have a pretty nasty downgrade in default cycle and energy

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00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 9: and commodity sectors in twenty sixteen through twenty eighteen. In fact,

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00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 9: energy was a place that a lot of credit investors,

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00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 9: from investment grade all the way down to high yield,

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00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,679
Speaker 9: had a really hard time generating any sort of consistent

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00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,640
Speaker 9: returns credit risk. Right now, I think most investors are

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00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 9: looking at the IG market a double B rated part

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00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 9: of the market and saying, you know, these balance sheets

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00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 9: actually look like they're in pretty good shape. But there

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00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 9: are some outliers, for sure. We're seeing, you know, what's

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Speaker 9: going on with Warner brother Discoveries, what's going on with

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00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 9: Bousch Health, what's going on with Altese friends, And it

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Speaker 9: seems like there is a little bit of a game

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Speaker 9: of whack a mole on these idiosyncretic situations and trying

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Speaker 9: to get ahead of what is going to be the

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Speaker 9: next thing in a otherwise kind of vanilla benign market.

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Speaker 9: But you know, that's the thing with credit, it's, you know,

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Speaker 9: always a hurry up and wait type of situation.

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Speaker 3: All right, Wennie, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Always appreciate getting your perspective. When he sees her global

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Speaker 3: head of strategy for credit sites, I think when you

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00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 3: spent basically half for life, I'm going to say at

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Speaker 3: Emory University.

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Speaker 2: I knew you were going to say that. I'm a

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Speaker 2: huge fan of Emory University.

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Speaker 3: She did her undergraduate degree there and a jd Mbah,

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Speaker 3: All right, enough, we got the education, we get it smart,

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Speaker 3: all that kind of good stuff, and helping us out

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Speaker 3: on the fixed income site.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live

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00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Virginia Massado joins US Global CIO for the equity business

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00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 3: for Alian's global investors. Virginny, can you talk to us

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00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 3: about what we saw earlier this year, which was a

443
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 3: decisive move from a lot of global investors out of

444
00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 3: the US market, particularly US equities and into the rest

445
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 3: of the world, particularly Europe. Is that a short term trade?

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00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 3: Is that a long term investment strategy? How do you

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00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 3: view the geographic allocation?

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00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:12,719
Speaker 10: Thank you very much. So, I think you had a

449
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 10: pendulum swing. The exposure to the US, as you know,

450
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 10: was driven partially by the benchmarks which had reached a very,

451
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 10: very high level. The dollar was strong, and of course

452
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 10: the US exceptionalism, if you want, with the innovation and

453
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 10: the AID pushed a lot of people in that market.

454
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 10: The gap in terms of valuation versus Europe and Asia

455
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 10: had opened up, and with the uncertainty that we've seen

456
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 10: since the new presidency, that has created if you want

457
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 10: a wake up call for a lot of global investors

458
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 10: who said, well, maybe I don't need to be so

459
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 10: much underweight in other parts of the world. So that's

460
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 10: number one. Number two in other parts of the world

461
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 10: came up new dynamics such as the fiscal plan around

462
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 10: defense out of Europe, which is going to be quite transformational,

463
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 10: and of course the fact that most investors are not

464
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 10: invested in China anymore, wile China has surprised by some

465
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 10: of the innovation advantages that it has demonstrated, so as

466
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 10: well as Japan. Japan is now back on the map.

467
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 10: So you've had those push and pull factors. That's meant

468
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 10: that people have rebalanced their portfolios. However, it's not the

469
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 10: end of exposure to the US market for global investors.

470
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 10: There's just too many good companies there.

471
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 6: Right, So I'm glad you mentioned China because where to

472
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 6: reallocate out of the US Many go to Europe, but

473
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 6: also em maybe Brazil, other parts and China. Where else

474
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 6: is there interesting opportunity?

475
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 10: So if you look at em in general, Taiwan of

476
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 10: course is interesting, not without volatility, but if you think

477
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,959
Speaker 10: of it as one very large center of excellence for technology,

478
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 10: semiconductor and Ai definitely there. India is an area that

479
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 10: we still like very much, tipping point in terms of demographics,

480
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 10: tipping point in terms of growth if you want, and

481
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 10: that consumer wealth growth, and also perhaps a more apolitical

482
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 10: nation versus what everything else going on in the world,

483
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 10: you know, particularly around the tariff's negotiation. So that is

484
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 10: in Asia what we like. In Latin America, of course

485
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 10: some interesting countries and European emerging markets are quite small,

486
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 10: so there I would play it mostly through developed Europe.

487
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 3: So again, as we think about Europe, Virginia, as you

488
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 3: talk to your clients, is there a sense that Europe

489
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: as an economic entity and as an investment opportunity has

490
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 3: kind of been reborn and it's something you really need

491
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: to think more about.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, I agree. So first, you know valuation. Second, rates

493
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 10: are coming down. We've had Christine Legard's message from the

494
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 10: last cut in rates, so that's been positive. Inflation below

495
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 10: two percent, so you've got that macro element that's been supportive.

496
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 10: But it's really about that package and we're talking close

497
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 10: to a trillion dollar to be invested in infrastructure and defense,

498
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 10: which of course will if well implemented, and that's the

499
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 10: big question. We'll really create an energetic ecosystem around infrastructure

500
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 10: or technology, etc. So there is an element of rebirths

501
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 10: of Europe. But also markets are much cheaper than in

502
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 10: the US.

503
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Speaker 6: How does then the tarraff landscape fit into that? Do

504
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 6: you kind of ignore it? I mean, I hate to

505
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 6: say that, but you kind of put it on the

506
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 6: side and be like that's going to be what's going

507
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 6: to be? Or do you need to re rate based

508
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 6: on any sort of baseline ten percent?

509
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 10: Yeah, yeah, exactly. So Interestingly, the ECB has a model

510
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 10: that they've run on ten plus forty, so ten percent

511
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 10: sort of universal tariff plus forty on China, and their

512
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 10: finding is that it would have more of an impact

513
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 10: on growth than inflation. Of course, you can't ignore tariffs,

514
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 10: but we have a lack of clarity and I think

515
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 10: that except for very large unexpected news, the impact of

516
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 10: tariffs on markets is diminishing. If you want, the marginal

517
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 10: impact is diminishing. However, you have to be very careful

518
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 10: about the sector. So if you take the auto sector

519
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 10: in Europe, as you know, big employer are probably going

520
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 10: to be hit by tariffs given the you know, the

521
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,719
Speaker 10: competition between the US and Europe. I think that's an

522
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 10: area to be very careful about. But within Europe you

523
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 10: have a lot of companies that are relatively immune to

524
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 10: the tariffs, and that's where you can also if you

525
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 10: want to find good opportunities.

526
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 2: The US technology REGINI.

527
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 3: The technology sector has been the driver of the US

528
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 3: equity markets for the longest, as long as most investors

529
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 3: can remember.

530
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 2: That's still the case in your perspective.

531
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Speaker 10: Yeah, absolutely so you have you know, you've heard me

532
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 10: talk about this digital Darwinism trend in a shifting world order.

533
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 10: This is exactly you know, playing out. And the digital

534
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 10: Darwinism is about how AI and technology is really advancing

535
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 10: so fast because that's the way tech moves right, exponential

536
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 10: versus linear, that it's creating really a diystruction in competitiveness globally.

537
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 10: The US is a very very strong foothold in that area.

538
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 10: But of course, because of the rivalry for the top

539
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 10: spot with China, which explains a lot of restrictions that

540
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 10: we've put, you know, on China's access to semiconductors, etc.

541
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 10: You have a bifurcation of global standards, and this is

542
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 10: why I think you still play text through the US,

543
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 10: but you also want tech in China and other parts

544
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 10: of the world like Japan for example. But absolutely yes,

545
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 10: the leadership is still there on the innovation, the ecosystem,

546
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 10: and the spirit. I would say the mindset is an equaled.

547
00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 6: Is such a good point, and that's why you can't

548
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 6: really done out of the US. For example, before we

549
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 6: let you go, we got CPI in about an hour.

550
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 6: Is it going to move markets? Are you excited?

551
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 10: Well? I think you also have to add this new

552
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 10: element of oil right with the Iran negotiation. But I

553
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 10: think consensus is for a pickup in core. It is

554
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 10: an important number though, because you know the font loading

555
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 10: effects from Q one is fading that we had seen.

556
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:29,679
Speaker 10: And we'll see how tariffs will impact inflation because we

557
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 10: know some of the tariff will be absorbded by consumers,

558
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 10: some by companies margin, some of it by currency. So

559
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 10: it's going to be a very interesting number. But I

560
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 10: would bet on a slight pickup in court.

561
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: All right, Virginia, thanks so much for joining US. Virginia

562
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 3: Massive Global CIO covering the equity business for Alliance Global

563
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 3: Investors over there in London.

564
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

565
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

566
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

567
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

568
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

569
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 2: Let's go to the pros here.

570
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: Lori Calvacina, kind of US equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

571
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 3: and a former resident of the lawn at the University

572
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: of Virginia. If you don't know what it means to

573
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 3: live on the lawn at UVA, go google it.

574
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 2: Laurie, thanks so much for joining us here.

575
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: How do you view kind of the earnings out there

576
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 3: at the market's discounting right now?

577
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: Are we too low in our earnings expectations? Are we

578
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: too high? How do you view that?

579
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 11: Well, it's a great question, Paul, And look, I think

580
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 11: there's a lot of uncertainty in the earnings outlook. That

581
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 11: doesn't mean that people like me don't have to come

582
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 11: up with forecasts. And so we've got two fifty eight

583
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 11: for this year. We have not put out a twenty

584
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 11: twenty six earnings number yet. We don't typically do that

585
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 11: this early in the year, but we have said you

586
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 11: can look at the bottom up consensus for twenty twenty six,

587
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 11: which has been tracking around two ninety nine. And if

588
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 11: you apply the typical haircut to it, so in other words,

589
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 11: that you know, kind of the typical downward revision, it

590
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 11: would come in around two seventy two. So, you know,

591
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 11: still very healthy numbers overall. But you know, I will say, Paul,

592
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 11: it's kind of you know, intimidating to look at that

593
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 11: two ninety nine for next year and say it's way

594
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 11: too high. It's got to come down. We think it

595
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,719
Speaker 11: probably does need to come down. But that is actually

596
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 11: pretty typical for this point of the cycle.

597
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 6: There's some headlines here about President Trump talking about deal

598
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 6: with China, saying the deal with China is done, will

599
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 6: provide to China what was agreed to, Our deal with

600
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 6: China done subject to she's approval. We are getting a

601
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,719
Speaker 6: fifty five percent tariff, China is getting a ten percent tariff,

602
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 6: and the relationship is excellent. So I bring that up

603
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 6: just to say, how do you factor in the uncertainty

604
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 6: around tariffs? Is your baseline then for earnings like just

605
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 6: ten percent and then you kind of go from there.

606
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 11: So look, I would say, you know, when we think

607
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 11: about earnings. What we're saying is just very different reactions

608
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 11: to the tariffs by different sectors in the economy. If

609
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 11: you look at industrials, for example, they've been very confident

610
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 11: and they've been saying, look, you know, we can pass things,

611
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 11: you know, any kind of cost increase on through pricing.

612
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 11: They sound very confident about their ability to manage through

613
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 11: add just supply chain footprints. Things have gotten a lot

614
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 11: sloppier when you look at the consumer companies. Some have

615
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 11: had a better tone than others, but generally there's a

616
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 11: lot less certainty about whether or not they can pass

617
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,239
Speaker 11: on prices. And so we've actually seen, you know, not

618
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 11: necessarily great reactions to earning's beats from the consumer companies

619
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 11: that have reported in recent weeks, because there's all this

620
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 11: sort of cloud and noise in the outlook. I think

621
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 11: this next reporting season alex is going to be absolutely

622
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 11: pivotal because we're going to hear from those industrial companies

623
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 11: and whether or not they really were able to manage through,

624
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 11: whether or not they're seeing any kind of impact to demand.

625
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 11: It was all kind of sunshine and roses in the

626
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 11: last reporting season. We'll see if that sticks and we'll

627
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 11: get updates from the consumer companies on how consumers are

628
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 11: responding and how they're managing through. So I think we're

629
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 11: just you know, still in a discovery process frankly, even

630
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 11: as the numbers are still moving around.

631
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: So what's the sentiment out there?

632
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 3: I mean, I know that's one of the factors you

633
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 3: look at and other strategist look at.

634
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: What is what's this sentiment here? It seems to have

635
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 2: kind of whip saw this year.

636
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: We started the year feeling really really good about maybe

637
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 3: pro growth policies coming out of DC, and then the

638
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 3: terriff situation really put you know, a knife in that

639
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: who since kind of.

640
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 2: Come back here. So I don't know what the sentiment

641
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: is out there.

642
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 11: You know, it kind of depends on who you're talking to,

643
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 11: which day it is, you know, kind of what part

644
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 11: of the market they trade, to be honest, Paul. But

645
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 11: I would say the best kind of summary I still

646
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 11: think is the AAII Weekly Survey. It's technically a high

647
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 11: net worth retail investors, but you know, at the same time,

648
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 11: I think it captures the vibe that I hear from

649
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 11: the institutional community pretty well also. And what we saw

650
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 11: there is that you know, from kind of I think

651
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 11: like early March, you know, through early May, we were

652
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 11: sitting two standard deviations below the long term average. Sentiment

653
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 11: was as bad as twenty twenty two, as bad as

654
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 11: the financial crisis, and it has rebounded, and you know,

655
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 11: you're not sort of back in net bullish territory on

656
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 11: a consistent basis yet, but we're you know, we're less

657
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 11: than one standard deviation below the long term average. We're

658
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 11: heading back towards that average. Now, if you go back

659
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 11: to last fall, right around the election, we were one

660
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 11: standard deviation above the long term average. So you're absolutely

661
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 11: in your whipsaw. I would say we're healing right now.

662
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 11: We are healing very rapidly, and I'm actually starting to

663
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 11: worry we're going to get back to where we were

664
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 11: last October and November pretty quickly.

665
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 6: And just to reiterate President Trump posting on social media

666
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 6: that the deal with China's done subject to is She's

667
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 6: approval and also talking about how their relationship is excellent. Laurie,

668
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 6: if things calm down, where do we see the most

669
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 6: upside you mentioned going back to those October levels. Is

670
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 6: it going to be in small caps?

671
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 11: So you know, it's interesting question Alex. We've gotten you know,

672
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 11: a fair amount of questions on small caps in the

673
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 11: last few days, and if you look at a relative

674
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 11: ratio between small cap and large caps, you have seen

675
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 11: a tiny little sliver of small cap out performance.

676
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 5: You know.

677
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 11: It's been interesting to me that we've seen that because

678
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 11: small caps do generally whenever there's any kind of problem

679
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 11: in the market, they're less able to manage through. You know,

680
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 11: I would also say certain pockets of small cap though

681
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 11: things like financial do have less direct terrific it's more

682
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 11: kind of broader macro risk, so it's not sort of

683
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 11: a monolith down within small cap. You know, we think

684
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 11: that they're actually interesting from a de risking perspective in

685
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 11: that if you look at the CFTC data, we had

686
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 11: actually gone back into net short territory recently, which is

687
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 11: something we frankly never saw for the S and P,

688
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 11: never saw for Nasdaq. And if you look at valuations

689
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 11: on small cap around the April eighth lows, they kind

690
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 11: of hit their typical recession lows, believe it or not.

691
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 11: So I do think you had, you know, sort of

692
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 11: a really interesting kind of de risking opportunity here. But

693
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 11: the catalysts you know, have been you know, sort of

694
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 11: hard to identify, given that we're in an economic backdrop

695
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 11: that seems pretty sluggish and has been anticipated by many

696
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 11: investors to stay sluggish.

697
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 2: For a while.

698
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 11: So to get small caps going, I think you need

699
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 11: things like FED rate cuts to come back, or real

700
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 11: genuine economic excitement and tailwinds to come back.

701
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 3: So, Laurie, earlier this morning, Alex and I were speaking

702
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 3: with a couple investors based in London.

703
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: We were talking about that kind of the non.

704
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 3: US trade, the europe trade really coming front and center

705
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: earlier this year when some of the t and certainty

706
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 3: really started to crescendo.

707
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: How do you view when you talk.

708
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 3: To your clients US versus maybe non US, particularly European

709
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 3: in terms of allocations.

710
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 11: Yeah, so it's a great question, Paul. And you know,

711
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 11: I tend to focus mostly on the US. I'm a

712
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 11: US equity strategist, but we do have conversations about the

713
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 11: US and the context of that US versus non US trade,

714
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 11: and I would say that if you think about the

715
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 11: non US investor back in March, there was really, you know,

716
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 11: an intense apprehension about investing in the US, and we

717
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 11: did start to see, you know, money really push into

718
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 11: Europe in a pretty significant way. We had seen big

719
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 11: inflows into the US from both US investors and non

720
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 11: US investors back around the election, and that really eased back,

721
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 11: and we started to see some modest outflows, you know,

722
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 11: just in recent data generally for US equities. So we

723
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 11: the way we put it, Paul, is there are so

724
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 11: many headlines coming out right, whether you're talking about trade

725
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 11: or tariffs, whether you're talking about the tax bill and

726
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 11: this section eight ninety nine issue. But it does seem

727
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 11: to me what tariffs did was really kind of open

728
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 11: the door and a way to the non US investors

729
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 11: to look at other geographies like Europe in a more

730
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 11: serious way than they had in a long time. And

731
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 11: we think it's very difficult for that door to be

732
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 11: closed once it's been opened.

733
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 6: She just said, you had two good questions this whole segment.

734
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:13,720
Speaker 2: Wow.

735
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know. I think that's a I

736
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 6: got none. I'm just saying whatever. But the great thing

737
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 6: about Laurie is that she doesn't have let Ai do

738
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 6: her work for her, Like she goes line by line

739
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 6: through these conference calls. Amy with Silverman, the derivative strategist

740
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 6: at RBC has her weekly note Doubt, and she highlighted

741
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 6: going on a road trip with Laurie and how like

742
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 6: Amy's like, let's go have a drink and hang out.

743
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 6: Laurie is like, No, I'm line by line looking at

744
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 6: all the earnings reports. Almost Amy, I'm kind of with

745
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 6: Laurie on this one. Laurie, what is what is the

746
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 6: thing that you think investors are getting most wrong as

747
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 6: you kind of go line by line through some of

748
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 6: these details, because the narratives are really easy to sort

749
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 6: of look at and create, right, what do you think

750
00:36:58,520 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 6: the biggest misconception is?

751
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 11: So I think the biggest misconception is and you know, Alex,

752
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 11: we read transcripts, you know, sort of week to week

753
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 11: as they come out in reporting season, and I've been

754
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 11: reading mostly then we just focus on the SMP because

755
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 11: it's just like an avalanche. But then you know, in between,

756
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 11: you know, when things slowed down, I'll kind of read

757
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 11: through h. Russell two thousand, my old stomping Grounds, you know,

758
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 11: kind of across sectors, and I would say that what

759
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 11: I what I get the most frustrated about is that

760
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 11: there's no monolithic story out there, especially if you're talking

761
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 11: about Terris. If you're talking about the consumers, all the

762
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 11: financial companies, whether it's a credit card or a bank,

763
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 11: they're like, Hey, the consumer's spine, the spending levels are good,

764
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 11: the delinquency levels are low, all the stats look fine.

765
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 11: And then you fast forward like four weeks later and

766
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 11: you get all the consumer companies and they're like, the

767
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 11: high end is trading down. People aren't smoking as much,

768
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 11: people aren't snacking as much. You know, some companies are saying, yeah,

769
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 11: we did see and you know, purchases pulled forward. Other

770
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 11: people are saying, ah, We're not so sure. You know.

771
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 11: My my favorite sort of, you know, kind of discrepancy

772
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 11: that I saw was that the telecom companies all set

773
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 11: in this last reporting season or a bunch of them,

774
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:05,760
Speaker 11: did anyway that mobile devices were pulled forward by consumers.

775
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 11: And then we had some of the producers of those

776
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 11: instruments of those devices say, ah, we don't think that

777
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 11: consumers did that. Well, who are you going to believe.

778
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 11: Are you going to believe the manufacturer? Are you going

779
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 11: to believe the telecom company that actually knows when those

780
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 11: customers are due to get a new device? And so,

781
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 11: you know, I think that they're just sort of conflicting

782
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 11: stories out there. But people tend to latch on if

783
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 11: they're in a barish mood to the more bearish narrative.

784
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 11: If they are in a more bullish mood and trying

785
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 11: to make a more bullish argument, they latch on to

786
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 11: the more constructive narrative that's out there. And I think

787
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 11: it's just still really really messy, and I think we're

788
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 11: going to continue to sort that mess out in the

789
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 11: next reporting season, Laurie, is.

790
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 3: There any sector that screens well for you guys right now?

791
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 3: Is I know you guys screen all this by by

792
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 3: by industry, sector, by factor as well, growth quality, that

793
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 3: kind of stuff. What's kind of sticks out for you

794
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 3: guys these days?

795
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 11: Yeah, so I would say on growth value, you know,

796
00:38:55,160 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 11: this is everybody's favorite debate, megacap versus broadening, megacap, growth

797
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 11: versus browny, and I don't have a firm, you know,

798
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 11: kind of view on that. I think we've had a

799
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 11: tug of war between those two segments of the market,

800
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 11: and I think that tug of war is going to continue,

801
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 11: And you know, maybe that's a little bit more of

802
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 11: a nuanced call that's you know, too much to go

803
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 11: into here, But that's probably where I differ the most

804
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 11: from consensus, is I just I think that tug of

805
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 11: war is there for a reason. I think it's going

806
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 11: to continue. I would say on the sectors, you know, industrials,

807
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 11: they're just too expensive for me. You know, we're so

808
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 11: we're neutral there. You know, we do recognize that these

809
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 11: companies have a better tone on managing through the challenges

810
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 11: that are coming through, especially on the tariff side, but

811
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 11: we just don't like the valuations. Tech we're still neutral on,

812
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 11: but it has started looking better on both our earnings

813
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 11: revision and our valuation work, So we're keeping a close

814
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 11: eye there. If you look at financials, and I know

815
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 11: I've been talking about this one every single time I

816
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 11: talk to you, Paul, but it's still screens really well.

817
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,879
Speaker 11: You've got you know, really nice valuations. You're really seeing

818
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 11: those driven by the regional banks. And you know, even

819
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 11: though you know, I might kind of chide the banks

820
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 11: a little bit for not you know, reflecting all of

821
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 11: the stuff that the consumer companies are talking about, I

822
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 11: do think what I'm hearing from the banks is just

823
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 11: a really good ability to manage through and they're kind

824
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 11: of a boring sector right now. I think they got

825
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 11: stress tests during SVB, and they were a little expensive

826
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 11: before all this tariff stuff started, And now you know,

827
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 11: we've got a very reasonably valued sector attractive on certain metrics. Again,

828
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 11: So I would say our financials rather is probably the

829
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 11: one that's most interesting to me right now.

830
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 6: This may be literally the same question, but when if

831
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 6: we do have a tariff deal between the US and China,

832
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 6: what sector could benefit the most?

833
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 11: So I think if you're comparing sort of the tariff

834
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 11: sensitive areas, you know, the place that I've seen the

835
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 11: most commentary frankly, you know, and I wouldn't say it's

836
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 11: all of a worrisome nature, But where I would say

837
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 11: the relevancy seems to be highest, it's going to be industrials, healthcare,

838
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 11: and consumer discretionary. I think out of those three, you've

839
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 11: really got your better valuations on the consumer discretionary side

840
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 11: and the healthcare side. Now we're neutral all of those sectors,

841
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 11: but if I'm just looking at it from a pure

842
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 11: valuation perspective and who's gotten beaten up the most, I

843
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 11: would probably say consumer discretion and healthcare sector. You know,

844
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 11: they look better than the industrial sector, frankly, because there's

845
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 11: just been more worry priced into the consumer stocks, and

846
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 11: on the healthcare side, this is a little bit more.

847
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 11: You know, kind of weighted my comments to the medtech space.

848
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 11: But we actually when we had our healthcare conference a

849
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 11: few weeks ago, we did a write up on this

850
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 11: and if you looked at the tariff commentary and the

851
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 11: SMP sect, I believe we did the s and P

852
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 11: five hundred or SMP fifteen hundred healthcare sector. The tariff

853
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 11: commentary was so much higher this time around than what

854
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 11: we had seen back during the first China trade war. So,

855
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 11: you know, we think that's, you know, contributed to some

856
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 11: of those more attractive valuations that you started to see

857
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 11: develop on certain metrics in the healthcare space.

858
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 3: Lourie, are class asking you to appine on just the

859
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: valuation of the broader market these days, because we've had

860
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 3: that big move down and now back up, all in

861
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 3: the context of earning's coming down.

862
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, I think people are struggling with whether

863
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 11: they look at twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six.

864
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 11: I think that some people want to sort of skip

865
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 11: over twenty twenty five. We think it's probably a little

866
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 11: bit early to do that, and if you're really going

867
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 11: to have a high convicted view on twenty twenty six,

868
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 11: you at least need to understand the starting point and

869
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 11: how bad or not, frankly, the damage may have been

870
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,399
Speaker 11: to twenty twenty five. You know, what I will say

871
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 11: is we have one model that's very popular that we

872
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 11: developed back in twenty twenty two, and so it's something

873
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 11: you know, that people really remember about our work, where

874
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 11: we just basically looked at average trailing pees going back

875
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 11: to the nineteen sixties. We set up we tested a

876
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 11: bunch of macro variables to see what drivers of those

877
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 11: pes are and we came up with a set of

878
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 11: inflation fed funds in ten year yields, So we slot

879
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 11: in assumptions on those, put them into the model. It

880
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 11: spits out of pe. We put that, you know, we

881
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 11: marry it up with our earnings numbers and come up

882
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 11: with fair value. So the long and short of it

883
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 11: is that for twenty twenty five, we look like we're

884
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 11: a little bit over our skis right now, unless we

885
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 11: get some big step up in the GDP forecast or

886
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 11: some big decline in the inflation outlook. Our modeling comes

887
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 11: to fifty seven thirty for next year. You know, depending

888
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 11: on different scenarios, I look at I can get you

889
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 11: to sixty two hundred and sixty eight hundred for the

890
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 11: end of twenty twenty six. Un fair value for the

891
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,479
Speaker 11: S and P so near term over valued, but longer

892
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:04,439
Speaker 11: term opportunity.

893
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:05,320
Speaker 2: Great stuff.

894
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 3: As always Lori Cavsten ahead of US Equity Strategy RBC

895
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 3: at Capital Markets and a proud of University of Virginia Cavalier.

896
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

897
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cockplay and Android

898
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

899
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

900
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal.

901
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 2: Let's be honest.

902
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 3: I mean, if you're at a Cockta party and you

903
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: pump into like for the last fifteen years, you bump

904
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 3: into a fixed income person, you just turn.

905
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 2: Around and walk away. Already there's no yield, there's no yield.

906
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: They got nothing to offer you. Now, However, they're like

907
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 3: the kids at the party. I mean, you can send

908
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 3: it to your treasury and can get more than four percent.

909
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 2: Karen Mann is one of those people.

910
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: I mean investment director of fixed and come at Federator Hermes.

911
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 3: She's now the cool kid on the block. Karen, What

912
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: are you doing in fixed income these days? Because you

913
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 3: guys have real yield across the spectrum here?

914
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 2: What do you guys? How do you guys think about

915
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 2: allocating and fixed income these days?

916
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 5: Good morning, and thank you for having me. I don't

917
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 5: know if I'm quite the cool kid. I think I'm

918
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 5: probably it's a really thank you, Alex. It's still really

919
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 5: still nerd herd here. But the income is back in

920
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 5: fixed income, right, That's where you would pound the table

921
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 5: and focus on that yield. And the yields do offer

922
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 5: protection from the interest rate variability or what causes the

923
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 5: price action part of total return. So when we're thinking

924
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 5: about fixed income and allocations, first and foremost, it's our

925
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 5: goal to be boring. This is the boring part of

926
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 5: your portfolio. When you wake up in the morning, if

927
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 5: the world isn't right, you want to look at that

928
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 5: bird in hand, the yield that you've collected, and have

929
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 5: some level of satisfaction rather than overreaching. So at this

930
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 5: point in time, we continue to like up in quality.

931
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 5: We don't think that there's any need to really reach

932
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 5: into the lower realms of credit, and I think shorter

933
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 5: duration instruments now focusing on anywhere from cash liquidity, money

934
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 5: markets all the way out to the three year part

935
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:20,240
Speaker 5: of the curve, continue to be the most attractive part

936
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 5: of fixed income.

937
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 6: But it's funny because fixed income has not been boring,

938
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 6: Like you can make an argument that you looked at

939
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 6: your portfolio over the last few months and fixed income

940
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 6: was the scarier part in some ways, with volatility that

941
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 6: we're not used to, with rates moving to levels that

942
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 6: could be really painful for stocks and the economy.

943
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 5: So true, the volatility has been a little bit gut

944
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 5: wrenching and a little bit more than we anticipate from

945
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:50,240
Speaker 5: fixed income markets, but we've also heard and seen sharp

946
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 5: shifts in policies, and the bond market has reacted. I

947
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,280
Speaker 5: would comment, and this is a little bit more editorial,

948
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 5: but the bond market seems to really be looking and

949
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 5: trying to anticipate that next downturn in the market, so

950
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 5: sometimes prices aggressively to the downside on that softer news.

951
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 5: But as investors, I think that we're all discovering that

952
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 5: we could just muddle along somewhere in this higher than

953
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 5: target but not very high inflation environment and in a

954
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 5: pretty balanced labor economy. So while you might look at

955
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 5: the screens day to day and see fluctuations that aren't

956
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 5: what you like to see, we are now viewing data

957
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 5: over longer cycles because of the news headlines.

958
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 3: So, Karen, I'm looking at the GO function in the

959
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,800
Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminal. It gives you the Bloomberg Index browser. He're todate,

960
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 3: there's a lot of green on the screen for across

961
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: the fixed income space, led by US corporate high yield.

962
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 2: How do you guys think about the hig yield market?

963
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 5: I know high yield continues to reign supreme and fixed income,

964
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 5: but for US it's still a little little bit too expensive.

965
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 5: Our analysts when they're looking at these companies, they are

966
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 5: remarking that earnings are fairly flat. These are companies that

967
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 5: broadly speaking, don't have pricing power at this point in time.

968
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 5: They don't have an ability to grow volumes, so it

969
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 5: leaves them still in the situation that they can emerge

970
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 5: from the high yield construct. Moreover, the tariff shifts and

971
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 5: changes and the policies aren't really giving them the fodder

972
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 5: where they could necessarily grow. The light at the end

973
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 5: of the tunnel for the high yield market is really

974
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 5: when the FED would start to ease and ease considerably.

975
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 5: And that's not our forecast or the street. So for

976
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 5: us at option adjusted spreads or the risk that is

977
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 5: paid over the relevant treasury rates at an average of

978
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 5: about three hundred basis points right now, we think that

979
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 5: that's far too low.

980
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:58,439
Speaker 6: All right, Karen, Thanks so much, Karen Man and vice

981
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 6: president over at FEDERI. Herm means sort of the semi

982
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 6: cool kid now at the.

983
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 2: Party and a proud graduate of the Pennsylvania State University.

984
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 1: Happy that This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live

985
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay

986
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

987
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

988
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

989
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: Let's take a look at these newspapers today. We do

990
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 3: that at this time every single day. Well, Lisa Mateo, Lisha,

991
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 3: what you got for us in the newspapers?

992
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 12: Okay, I want to preface this first story by saying

993
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 12: I love my son and daughter the same.

994
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: Okay, So here we go.

995
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 12: This is from the Times.

996
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 2: Okay.

997
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 12: So they're pointing to this new analysis of global births

998
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 12: that suggests that, you know, this long standing pattern of

999
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 12: parents hoping for sons rather than daughters to kind of

1000
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 12: bring on the family name, you know that that kind

1001
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 12: of thing, that it's starting to shift, especially in places

1002
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 12: like China and India. So they're saying, what they say,

1003
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 12: quote is that baby boys are increasingly viewed as a

1004
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 12: burden and girl as a boon. So they're saying daughters

1005
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 12: are perceived as more nurturing, like, hey, they're going to

1006
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 12: take care of you.

1007
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 6: The son's going to go out and take care of

1008
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 6: his mother and his wife's smile. You're aware of this,

1009
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 6: Oh totally, yes.

1010
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 12: Yes, So that's what they're saying. But they're taking a

1011
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 12: different place like the you know China with the problem

1012
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 12: in China is that they're having is that some are

1013
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 12: since there's more males and females, the males are often unmarried,

1014
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 12: so other parents are worried that their son's going to

1015
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 12: be alone, so then they have that to worry about.

1016
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 6: Interesting, Oh my gosh, that's fascinating. When you have more

1017
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 6: girls they're definitely gonna get snapped up by They.

1018
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 3: Had that one child policy for the longest time, and

1019
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 3: now they said two. But I think that people have

1020
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,240
Speaker 3: been so ingrained with one that it's not happening.

1021
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 6: It's gonna take some time.

1022
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: It's gonna take some time. Those chickens and eggs exactly.

1023
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 3: I mean I have three, three sons and a daughter,

1024
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 3: and the daughters by far the one in charge, I

1025
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 3: mean not even She's the only one that got a

1026
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 3: head on straight.

1027
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 12: See, and she's going to take care of you.

1028
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 2: I He's like this.

1029
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: Thing.

1030
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 12: Okay, have you heard of these dolls? They're La booboo dolls.

1031
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 11: I don't know.

1032
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 12: Is your daughter into the This is a new thing

1033
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 12: for me.

1034
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 2: Okay, I have not heard.

1035
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 12: Oh just you wait. Okay, So these are there, like

1036
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 12: these toothy monster dolls. They're made by this Beijing company,

1037
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 12: PopMart International.

1038
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 2: Yes, but they're all the.

1039
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 12: Rage because Rihanna carries them like Black Pink's lease that

1040
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,399
Speaker 12: carries them around and it shares of searche like one

1041
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,400
Speaker 12: hundred and eighty percent this year. But there was an auction.

1042
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 12: They had this like one of a kind mint green

1043
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 12: Laboo Boo doll. I that's top dollar is an auction

1044
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 12: in Beijing.

1045
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 2: It was human size.

1046
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 12: It's old for about one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Yes,

1047
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 12: human size, human size or the human size Laboo Boo doll.

1048
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 12: But they were like a ton of stuff, like about

1049
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 12: forty seven other like different collectibles. So they all went

1050
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 12: for top dollars.

1051
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:49,800
Speaker 2: No pictures on YouTube.

1052
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 12: See there you go. You have to take a look

1053
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 12: at them. I'm sure your kids probably might have them.

1054
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 12: This is the reason to go to YouTube, the Christmas

1055
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 12: time thing.

1056
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 3: This is the reason to Bloomberg surnounced on YouTube to

1057
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 3: get the La Bubu dolls.

1058
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 2: And you don't get this on radio.

1059
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 12: On YouTube, Yes, your kids will be asking for them.

1060
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 11: No, no, no, no no.

1061
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 12: We're reaching out to Alex's daughter as we speak. So

1062
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 12: let's go to AI. So we've been talking like how

1063
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 12: AI could possibly take away jobs, right, A lot of

1064
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 12: companies are saying it's not going to happen. It's going

1065
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 12: to give people more time to take on bigger tasks, right.

1066
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 12: But the New York Times actually points to this one company.

1067
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 12: Excuse me if I'm mispronounced it, mackenzie. It's a San

1068
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 12: Francisco startup and what they basically want to do is

1069
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 12: take your job. So they have a goal of automating

1070
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 12: all jobs. Right, we're talking about doctors, lawyers, people who

1071
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 12: write your software, design buildings, care for your kids, things

1072
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 12: like that.

1073
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:46,240
Speaker 2: But they want to just start.

1074
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 12: With computer programming first. So that's that's their main focus.

1075
00:51:49,560 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take care jolly.

1076
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 12: There's only three people working there, no five people working there.

1077
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,799
Speaker 12: It started by three guys. But they have these big

1078
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 12: people backing them, like people from Stripe. You have Google's

1079
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 12: chief AI scientists, like they're all backing them. But it's

1080
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 12: an interesting thing because, like people have been worried about

1081
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 12: their let we get to.

1082
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 2: This last one.

1083
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, if time is your left story seconds.

1084
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 6: It's like whatever job's AI, who cares. Let's get to

1085
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 6: this important story.

1086
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 12: Okay, yeah, this one is from Business Insider.

1087
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: This is the important thing.

1088
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 8: Right.

1089
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 12: We've heard of Hooters a lot of trouble with the restaurants.

1090
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 2: Okay, good, Yes, I think you've heard of this one.

1091
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 12: So they've been having trouble with the restaurant. But who

1092
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:29,720
Speaker 12: can come to the rescue.

1093
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 2: It might be Hulk Hogan.

1094
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 12: His beer brand is trying to make a bid to

1095
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,359
Speaker 12: kind of save them, get the chain growing again. I

1096
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 12: didn't even know he had a beer brand, but apparently

1097
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 12: does real American beer.

1098
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:43,280
Speaker 2: Have you? Have you tried it? I haven't.

1099
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 3: The only Hooters I've been till my life is across

1100
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 3: the street from the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.

1101
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: That's where people hang at the Hooters. I'm telling you,

1102
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 3: I don't know why it is, but anyway, that's kind

1103
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 3: of the way it.

1104
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 6: Is, like make Hooters great again.

1105
00:52:55,680 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 3: There, Alex Steele and Paul swhen you were here, Lisa Taylor,

1106
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 3: thank you so much. We got the newspaper segment in

1107
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: there for you. There with Lisa Mittaylor.

1108
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

1109
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

1110
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

1111
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

1112
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

1113
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal