1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: The following program has been prerecorded. Ronanian, my wife forgot 2 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: to charge her car overnight, meaning she didn't plug it in. 3 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: So I just plugged it in at twenty eight percent. 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: It needs three hours and fifteen minutes the fully charged. 5 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: We won't be able to use it for all our driving. 6 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: Today's planned. There's a candidate, honest response from an electric 7 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: vehicle owner, the car Doctor. The operator of New England's 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: power grid said it could be forced to shut off 9 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: power if there was a long period of very cold 10 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: temperatures this winter. If New England has a prolonged cold snap, 11 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: the operator of the grit And warn they may have 12 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: to shut up the power to homes and businesses. Welcome 13 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: to the radio home of Ron and Anian, the Car Doctor, 14 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: since this is where car owners the world overturned to 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: for their definitive opinion on automotive repair. If you're a 16 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: mechanics giving you a busy signal, pick up the phone 17 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: and call in The garage doors are open, but I 18 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: am here to take your calls. At eight five five 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: s now he running. You know, we've got a great 20 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: hour of radio for you here. It's uh um, I've 21 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: had so much phone already talking to our guest pre show. 22 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: Just just listening and I know where this conversation is 23 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: gonna go, but you guys are gonna love this. And 24 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: and actually I have to thank all of you the listenership, 25 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: because you sent in more than a few emails showing 26 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: me his recent interview. Well maybe it's not so recent, 27 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 1: but some of his other interviews Mark Mills from the 28 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: Manhattan Institute UM with John Stossel among other people, and 29 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: talking about electricity and electric cars. And we reached out 30 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: to Mark. He got right back to us, and we're 31 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: so thrilled to have him here. He's his reputation precedes him. 32 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: Mr Mills, Are you there, sir? I'm here. Thanks for 33 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: having me on. You're very welcome. We're so glad to 34 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: have you. I uh, you know, we I just want 35 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: to I'm gonna start at the beginning, Mark, because you 36 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: and I have already had half the interview and we'll 37 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: just go home and have a drink. We're done. Um uh, 38 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: you know, full disclosure, So you know, tell us about yourself. 39 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: You know what, Why did I pick you? Why are 40 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 1: you the guy that everybody seems to be talking to? 41 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: Um when we're talking about electricity and energy because this 42 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: is a car repair show. But you know, this electric 43 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: car thing is just the tip of the iceberg of 44 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: what they want to do and how they want to 45 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: change the way energy is in this country. Yeah. Well, 46 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: I could first say it's not my fault. Well that's 47 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: good to know, but I'm hoping you're the guy that 48 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: fixes it. Uh. You know, it's funny. I I studied 49 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,519 Speaker 1: degrees in physics. I quick graduate school because because well 50 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: I would like to work, and I was building semi conductors. 51 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: My my first job was in a manufacturing plant for 52 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: semi conductors. But from very early in my my life, 53 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: I liked how things work. They're like building things. You know, 54 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: worked on engines. I worked on motorcycles, raced one summer 55 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 1: in Grand Prix in Canada, and you know, I'm Canadian. 56 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: Like engines, like electric motors are like semi conductors. I 57 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: like how stuff works. And that's why the part I 58 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: study physics. And then I ended up getting a job 59 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: as an engineer and semi conductors and missile guidance and 60 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: stuff like that, and I got sort of dragged in 61 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: the back door to the energy domain simply because nothing 62 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: is possible without energy. So it doesn't matter whether you're 63 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to make cars go fast 64 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: or be more efficient, depends what your proclivities are. Our 65 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: rockets fly, or make semi conductors more powerful, computers faster. 66 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: Everything everything redounds ultimately to figuring out both the materials 67 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: and the energy energetics of things. So yeah, that that 68 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 1: was sort of the intellectual part, but the practical part 69 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: was very real for me and jobs I had in 70 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: my hobbies. And then you know, we've got the energy 71 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: debate started. As you know, we had oil embargoes and 72 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: that a couple of them to cause the people have forgotten. 73 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: The people of a certain age will remember oil prices 74 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: went up overnight in then they went up more again 75 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 1: in seventy nine. Uh, these are these are shocking events. 76 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: They really changed how the Western world thought about energy, 77 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: and people thought we were running out of energy. So 78 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: I ended up getting evolved in energy issues, probably because 79 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: of the silliness of the idea that we were running 80 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: out of energy, running out of oil. And then now 81 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: we have another silly idea that we should never use 82 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 1: oil and gas again. Well let me stop you right there, Mark, 83 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: are we are we running out of oil. No, that's 84 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: the right, I mean the nuances. Can you can you 85 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: exhaust an oil field? Uh? That uses technology you have 86 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: available today to deliver oil at a price you're willing 87 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: to pay. Yes, that's a that's a form of running 88 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: out of oil. The geophysical question is a different one. 89 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: Is there enough oil we are aware of as a 90 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: resource to fuel society for centuries? Yeah? Easily centuries. Centuries 91 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 1: is essentially forever. The availability of oil or natural gas 92 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: or any frankly, any mineral, any resource in the Earth 93 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: is dictated not by this physical quantity but the kind 94 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 1: of technology we have to find it and extracted at 95 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: a price. Yeah, and that so that's it's a technology question. 96 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: That's the key question is what kind of technologies are there, 97 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: how do they change, and what are their limits? So 98 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: you know, we're not running out of oil, but you 99 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: can run out of the capacity to produce it at 100 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,840 Speaker 1: the volumes and prices the markets will need and will pay. 101 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: And governments can cause that to happen, not just engineers. 102 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: Governments banned things that you can't drill here um. Governments 103 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: can pass regulations that are punitive oil or gas or 104 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: any mineral to expensive. So the when I start up, 105 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: I say no, I mean, I'm answering that your physical question. 106 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: But obviously governments can do really dumb things, and they 107 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: have and they will continue to do that. I guess 108 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: that's what makes them politicians and governments do a degree. Well, 109 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: the good news is, you know, not to go politically. 110 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: I would, I would really have democracies that do dumb 111 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: things and dictatorships. Well, there's always that, Yes, I agree. Well, listen, 112 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: I gotta tell you we're gonna get political comments after 113 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: this conversation. I know I'm going to get because I 114 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: already get hate email that i'm trying to ben Do 115 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: you know that I single handedly am trying to eliminate 116 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: the electric car industry if you believe some of the listeners. Um, 117 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: and I just keep trying to point out. You know, 118 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: as I said in our pre interview interview, you know 119 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: one of my favorite lines from one of my favorite movies, 120 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: Hitting Figures, math doesn't lie to and two has to 121 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: before Um, where are we gonna get the electricity from? Well, 122 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: like Dr Carwin is it is actually a terrific example 123 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: of two two domains at fascinating. One. One is sort 124 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: of a law called misdirection of interest in the future. 125 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: I've got a new book out as you as you 126 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: probably know. But when one writes a new book, one 127 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: is not an obligated but eager eager to promote it. 128 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: And I write about cars and transportation. In the book. 129 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: It's called the Cloud Revolution. As you can guess for 130 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: the title, it's not about cars. It's about computing and 131 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: technology for the future. Cars. Cars are interesting new kinds 132 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: of fuel for cars, using batteries instead of gasoline. It's 133 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: a portant. You know, that's a very interesting option, and 134 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: it will be lots more of it. But the idea 135 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: that that's revolutionary in the same sense the invention of 136 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: the cars revolutionary is profoundly misguided. It's would be equivalent 137 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: in the nineteenth century of coming up a new way 138 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: to feed horses and imagining that you had a revolution. 139 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: You know, the be winners and losers. If you change 140 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 1: what you feed, the horse says, it's still a horse. 141 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: A car with a battery is still a car. Is 142 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: different food that is meaningful. The real question you'd want 143 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: to know is can we make enough of that food? 144 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: And by that I mean, you know you're referring to 145 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: electricity electricity is the least of it. That's not the problem. Obviously, 146 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: you have to charge an electric car with electricity equally. 147 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: Obviously the electricity you use is determined by when you 148 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: charge the car and where you charge it. I mean 149 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: by that is most people probably know. If you happen 150 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 1: living a part of the world of a country where 151 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: there's lots of wind and solar and it happens to 152 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: be funny or a lot of windy at that very moment, 153 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: if you charge your car, you're probably using a lot 154 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: of electrons made with wind and solar. And if you 155 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: happen to charge a car when it's cloudy or be cobbed, 156 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: which happened for roughly two weeks in northern Europe this 157 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: last month, as you know, then you're you're charging your 158 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: car with natural gas and coal dominantly, which is what 159 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: happened in Germany and England when they fired up whole 160 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: plants that they fortunately still had around. So that that's 161 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: a factor. The bigger factor that is profoundly absent from 162 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: this whole trope that we're going to eliminate the use 163 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: of internal combustion engines by virtue of electric cars being better. 164 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: We could talk about whether they're better or not. That's 165 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: a different subject, and whether they become cheaper another subject. 166 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: But the idea that electric cars will eliminate the need 167 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: to have oil internal combustion engines is just arithmetically silly. 168 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: It's not not happening, and it won't happen for two reasons. 169 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: One the scaling up that people imagine that is we're 170 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: going from a world today tenllion electric cars in the 171 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: world today, which is a lot considering there were a 172 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: decade ago not even a million, so it's a big deal. 173 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: But it's in a world that has over a billion 174 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: cars on the roads. So you know, again, if you 175 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: do your math, you're not you're out. You're now approaching 176 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: one percent of all vehicles. The optimists believe that there 177 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: will be hundreds of millions of electric cars within the decades, 178 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: say three or four. That would be an astonishing increase 179 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: in the physical infrastructure that would at that point in 180 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: time eliminate roughly of world's oil use. So let me 181 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: say that again. If we get the optimist vision happening 182 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,439 Speaker 1: in the next decade, and we get four million or 183 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: so electric vehicles on the roads, the reduction of world 184 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: oil demand would be about that's it. That's it. So 185 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: how does that an existential threat to anything? If you're 186 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: in the oil business, what do you care? In fact, 187 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: I would say the opposite. If I'm a consumer, Let's 188 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: hope there's that many electric cars, because the competition will 189 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: help keep the price of gas laying down for everybody 190 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: else that doesn't want to pay high price for gas. 191 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: You want competition, absolutely, Hey, Mark, let me pull over 192 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: and take a poise. But let me just say this. 193 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: You just convinced me you must be a physicist. Then 194 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: you really do have a degree. I used to be one. 195 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 1: I don't practice anymore. I just talk like one on 196 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: TV and radio. You sound you sound pretty good to me. 197 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: You got me convinced. When I come back, maybe we'll 198 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,719 Speaker 1: talk about time travel and a DeLorean ronating of the 199 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: car Doctor here with Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. 200 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: We'll both return right after this. Don't go away for 201 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: the best in car advice. Give Ron a call eight 202 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: five five five six zero nine zero zero. Now back 203 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: to Ron. Hey, thanks for staying with us. We're here 204 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: today with Mark Mills. He is a senior Fellow with 205 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: the Manhattan Institute. He's a faculty fellow at Northwestern University's 206 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: McCormick School of Engineering, and he's just a whole lot 207 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: of fun to talk to. I think he's like my 208 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: new best buddy. UM. We we we could talk. Probably 209 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,319 Speaker 1: we need it. We need at least, you know, I 210 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 1: think I need like an eight hour show here, Mark. Um, 211 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: so let me let me recap the first segment, all right, 212 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 1: just so I can for those that are just is 213 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: joining us. We we've you know, you've made your case. 214 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: Obviously you're a physicist. You've got some really great knowledge 215 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: as far as uh, you know, energy application, the theories 216 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: of the future, use where it came from. Um, you've 217 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: convinced this of that. Um, you've written more than more 218 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: than just a recently, you've written a few books, the 219 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: most recent being The Cloud Revolution and that just came 220 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: out this year and it's a fascinating read. Um. You 221 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: were sort of talking about electric cars, trying to keep 222 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: us about electric cars, but then the whole energy issue 223 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: comes into play. So so when you look at I'm 224 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: gonna pick on a state, when you look at California, 225 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: by this must make your hair spin. By twenty five, 226 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 1: there they've banned the internal combustion engine vehicle? Can they 227 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,839 Speaker 1: do it well? Like governments can do almost almost as 228 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: we've discovered recently, almost anything you want to do. So 229 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: I'll make a I'll make a prediction in two parts 230 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: about californ s will be true for England, which has 231 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: made a similar declaration. The bands, if if they stay 232 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: in place, will result in extraordinary escalation and the value 233 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: of used cars. First, right, imagine because not every way 234 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 1: is gonna be able to buy an expensive electric car, 235 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: because the electric car will still by then be more 236 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: expensive than an internal combustion engine, which we can talk 237 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: about it that that will that will boost the number 238 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: of years use cars stay on the market, on the road, 239 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 1: and the value of them. But will more likely happen 240 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: is the bands will be softened or ignored, or just 241 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: abandoned entirely because the whole world, in fact, just the 242 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: country that are now in states that are now proposing 243 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:51,599 Speaker 1: to do that, can't all do it and have enough batteries, 244 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 1: never mind manufacturing cars. The central problem that's being ignored 245 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: here is not whether the electric car is nice and 246 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: tussles are nice. Of course, you're nice, pressive car are 247 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: incredible company and kudos to somebody building a car company 248 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 1: that's successful by all measures, even counting you know, some 249 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: help from subsidies. That doesn't explain it. It's a successful 250 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: car company. Absolutely achievement. In fact, the most impressive engineering 251 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: of a battery probably on the planet. Without being hyperbolic. 252 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: It deserves enormous credit. Really something. The last guy to 253 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: try and do it, yeah, was Tucker exactly, or you 254 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: can pick the Lorian if you like, in the Brooklyn 255 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: total total, total failures, hard, hard to build a car company, 256 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: even with help, and he's done it. And look, if 257 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: you think about this, I mean, what an incredible achievement. 258 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: I believe the last I checked that something on the 259 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: order of six of all automobiles sold in the Western 260 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: world at a price over th range are now testless. 261 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: He's utterly dominated that market. Watch is why Mercedes and 262 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: Jaguar and BMW are all making e v s and 263 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: that price range because he just ate the lunch. Uh. 264 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: And that's that's not nothing. That's not the whole car 265 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: market obviously, but it's it's not nothing, and it's very impressive. 266 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: But here's this is the nub of the problem, and 267 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 1: it's not that electric cars are profoundly useful vehicles and 268 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: having niches bigger than now exists. So if I were 269 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: predicting another sort of future snapshot, there's ten million electric 270 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: cars today, it will be unsurprising if there were hundreds 271 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: of millions, at least a hundred million in the next decade. 272 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: There will be a lots more electric cars. The problem 273 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: is that the batteries are not these simple things that 274 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: I think are many people's had. They think the electric 275 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: cars quote simple and simpler to build than the internal 276 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: combustion engine, because you have this engine, which you know 277 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: better thiing to have taken a few engines a part 278 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: of my life, but not recently. The engine has got 279 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: a lot of parts in it, and it's all I'm 280 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: moving parts and it can wear out. And you have 281 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: so you have a simple fuel tank, and it's a 282 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: complicated engine, maybe a thousand parts. And the trope is 283 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: we have replaced a simple engine with the complex engine 284 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: with a simple motor with two moving parts, maybe two 285 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: motors two parts each. But the battery, the swap is 286 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: for complexity in the fuel system. The battery has thousands 287 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: of welds in it. Tesla battery has fourteen thousand welds 288 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: in it. It has seven thousand cells. He's hoping to 289 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: get the next generation designed down to a few thousand cells. 290 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: That has a cooling system, a heating system, a structural system, 291 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: and it has electronic control systems in it to keep 292 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: it from the keep it from self immolating, the burning 293 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: up to maximize its performance. Is an extraordinary complex electrochemical machine. 294 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: And the engine that we're replacing it with this very 295 00:16:55,760 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: complex electro chemical mechanical machine. Rather so you're swapping complexities, 296 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 1: you haven't eliminated complexity. More importantly, the materials the battery 297 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: made from the minerals cobalt, the lithium, nickel, manganese, those 298 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: those minerals. The quantities of the metals you're required to 299 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: make a battery are roughly over the life scent of 300 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: a car. If you count count apples to apples, you 301 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: increase the quanty materials you need to drive a vehicle 302 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: over to in your life by tenfold. But think about this, 303 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: a thousand percent increase, and the quantity materials have to 304 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: extract from the Earth to have to make a vehicle. 305 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: The parts of the vehicles that are the same electric 306 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: and non electric. You know, the wheels, tires, the frame, 307 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 1: they're all the same, right it seeds the battery. An 308 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: electric car weighs about a thousand pounds. The fuel tank 309 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: is again you know you and your audience now seventy 310 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 1: pounds maybe the car. So I have a thousand pound 311 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: fuel system and it takes five hundred thousand pounds of 312 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: materials mine from the earth to make that one battery. 313 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: Oh my god, Mark, hold that thought. Let me pull 314 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: over and take this pause. When we return, we'll rejoin 315 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: us romenading the Car Doctor, Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. 316 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: Don't go away. We'll be back right after this, coming 317 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: by clocome back round naming the car Doctor here today 318 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 1: with Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. Mark, when we 319 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: pulled over and took that pause, we were talking in 320 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: terms of the impact of what it takes to make 321 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: that electric car battery. Can you just recap that for 322 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: the listeners real quick? Yeah? I think this this is 323 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: the part that's critical perspective. Visions of a magical future 324 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: where every car has a battery in it. They won't 325 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: be the kind of batteries that we're making today because 326 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 1: we can't make that many batteries because the thousand pound battery, 327 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,199 Speaker 1: which is what a battery ways in a car to 328 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: get several hundred miles of range, requires mining a variety 329 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: of minerals to make the battery. Let's is the scientific term. 330 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: No doc you go, you need steel, of course, but 331 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: it's you know, aluminum, but you need nickel and maganese 332 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: and cobalt and lithium the main launge of minerals that 333 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: go into a battery. So a thousand pounds is a 334 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,479 Speaker 1: finished the form. But to make the battery you have 335 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: to mine pounds of materials rock and process it, turn 336 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: it into finished minerals and make a battery that There's 337 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: two things about that that matter. First, it takes energy 338 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 1: to do that. It has environmental impacts to do that. 339 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: And you want to know how much that you're going 340 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 1: to do If you want to know the total, we'll 341 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: call it the energy debt of making the batteries, because 342 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: batteries are the form of energy, and obviously they start energy, 343 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: so you spend energy to star energy, and you spend 344 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: a lot. It takes somewhere between one and three hundred 345 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: barrels of oil equivalent of energy. So dred barrels spoil 346 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: equivalent of energy to fabricate a battery that could hold 347 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: one barrel of oil equivalent of energy. And then you're 348 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:33,120 Speaker 1: doing all this mining and digging and you know, gathering 349 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: of rocks to get the material. With these giant machines 350 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: that are emitting, well, they burn diesel fuel. Some of 351 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 1: them are electric, but if they're remote, because they have 352 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: electric machines and remote minds. But if they're in a 353 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: remote mine, not close to a grid, the the generation 354 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: of electricity comes from diesel machines using oil. Uh. In fact, 355 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: the global mining industry uses almost as much oil as 356 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: a global aviation industry. It's much oil. And now now 357 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: to fabricate batteries that the scales people are talking about 358 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 1: will require that the largest increase in mining the world 359 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: has ever seen. And I'm saying this. It sounds hyperbolic 360 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 1: to say that I'm saying this based on not my research. 361 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: My research is finding other people's research. So the U. S. 362 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: Geological Survey or the International Energy Agency itself, which is 363 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: one of the big advocates for more electric cars. What 364 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 1: what the researchers will tell you who look at the 365 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 1: mineral requirements is that the world today is not mining 366 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: nor planning to mind enough copper, never mind everything else, 367 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,719 Speaker 1: or not enough nickel, never mind the exotic things like 368 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: lithium or cobalt, but just the basic metals to make 369 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: the quantities of batteries and electric cars and windmills and 370 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: solar solar arrays that are contemplated. An electric car uses 371 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: three times more copper than internal combustion engine. That should 372 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: be on surprising considering you're replacing you know, steel engine 373 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 1: with you know, a copper round electric motor and a 374 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: lot of electric bus bar But the increase is not nothing. 375 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: I mean, if you start making millions of vehicles, uh, 376 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: with increase in copper per vehicle, you become a significant 377 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 1: consumer of copper. And that's not counting the batteries consumption 378 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: of other minerals. So what's the solution. Well, I can 379 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: tell you as a as a fact, and this is 380 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: easy to find in the magic Google machine, that the 381 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: world is not now planning to and no governments are 382 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: expanding mining sufficient to make enough cars the banned internal 383 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: combustion engines in the next decade or two. So so 384 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: are we being you know, California banning sale of internal 385 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: combustion engines by thirty five, car companies saying will be 386 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: all electric by Are they showing us the extreme and 387 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 1: over the next couple of years, as I've been saying, 388 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: are they going to back pedal and all of a 389 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 1: sudden by you know, three or four years from now. Well, 390 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 1: we can't achieve that, But here's what we really want. 391 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: I'd take the bet the back they go to backpedal, 392 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: it won't take them a decade decade to backpedal. The 393 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: backpedal will start sooner, and it'll start when the prices 394 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 1: started going up. I mean, if you put this kind 395 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: of demand, the demand on minerals that these green energy 396 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: plans have represents a four hundred to four thousand percent 397 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,959 Speaker 1: increase in demand for depends on the middle of you pick. 398 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: So it's increase in demand for copper, It's a four 399 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 1: thousand percent increase in the demand for cobalt. It's a 400 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 1: thousand percent increase demand for nickel. This is these are 401 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 1: global increases in demand to meet these plans that governments 402 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: are proposing. These are these are astonishing increases in demand 403 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: in a world where market prices for these minerals rises. 404 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,360 Speaker 1: If the demand goes up by ten percent or so. 405 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 1: What will happen is the prices will go up. So 406 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: we saw this already this year. The average price for 407 00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 1: a battery for electric car has been going down this 408 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: leek because Elon Musk and everybody who falls for a decade, 409 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: and which is pretty quite remarkable. But this year it 410 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: went down. This year, I mean the trailing in twelve months, 411 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: it went down by a single digit percentage point, that's 412 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 1: eight percent or something ten percent, which is not a 413 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: big decline. Next year, almost all forecasts the battery prices 414 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: going up, not down up. The trend will reverse itself 415 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: because of the costs of the minerals. Here's here's the 416 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: key fact when you when you buy it, when you 417 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: buy a car, the materials that are going too the car, 418 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: the bill of materials cost something and labor to those 419 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: setting aside profits. There's just two things, right. You have 420 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: labor for machines and human beings that you pay for, 421 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: and you have materials. The same is true when you 422 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: build a battery batteries and electric cars. Today, the cost 423 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: of making the batteries just the raw minerals materials, and 424 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: if I double the price of those minerals, how how 425 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: can we possibly say the battery is gonna get cheaper 426 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 1: even if even if I take the remaining which is 427 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: the manufacturing machinery and labor and electronics and a cooling 428 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: system and make that half as expensive, how is that. 429 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,880 Speaker 1: How's that going to get you a cheaper battery when 430 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,959 Speaker 1: the cost of the battery, which are the minerals. Everything 431 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 1: that's happening in the world today is leading to those 432 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: going up in price. And none of the environmental organizations, 433 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: and I say this, I think pretty confidently not a 434 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 1: single environment organization in the world that's pushing to have 435 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,439 Speaker 1: more electric cars is supporting more mining to make it 436 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: possible to have more electric cars. So it's sort of 437 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: like they want us to clean up the environment, but 438 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 1: don't touch the environment to do it. Look, I can't 439 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: blame them, they're honestly like you're mining. But let's be 440 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 1: honest about what has to be done. So if you 441 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 1: if you drive a car for a decade, we can 442 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: calculate easy to do the total tonnage. Let's just do 443 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: it in tons of oil, gas sling you'll need depending 444 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: if you're no matter, we know what the number. And 445 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 1: if you do the same ten years for electric car, 446 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: you get to another tonnage which in a sence, you 447 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: pay for upfront by the battery. Forget how you make electricity, 448 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: just look at the car. And if you make those 449 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: two comparisons, you get a thousand percent increase in the 450 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 1: tonnage of materials you need to extract from the Earth 451 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: to drive a vehicle for ten years. This is this 452 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 1: is consequential economic terms and environmental terms, and it's not sustainable. 453 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: Won't it won't emanate. It sounds like I'm being hyperbolic again. 454 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: It won't happen. It just it won't happen because it 455 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 1: can't happen. So we're not going to get there. But 456 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 1: we will have more electric cars because you could get 457 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: to I don't pick a number, ten percent of the 458 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 1: fleet being electric or but we're not gonna We're not 459 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 1: gonna get to fifty or sixty or a hundred. Hey, 460 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,360 Speaker 1: Mark called that thought. Let me let me pull over 461 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 1: and take this pause. I'll run any of the Car 462 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: Doctor here today with Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. 463 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 1: Will both be back right after this. Don't go away, 464 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 1: Welcome back. We're on any of the Car Doctor here 465 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 1: today with Mark Mills, of the Manhattan Institute. He's also 466 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: an accomplished author, has written more than a few books, 467 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,919 Speaker 1: his most recent being The Cloud Revolution, talking about the 468 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 1: convergence of new technologies and the next economic boom. And 469 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 1: I think part of that is some of the conversation 470 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: we're having here today, right Mark, with regard to electric 471 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 1: vehicles and the electric vehicle future. Yeah, I think, you know, 472 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: let's let's talk about the future. The idea that I 473 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: don't think electric cars are going to take over the 474 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 1: world has a lot of people saying to me, well, 475 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, you're not a technical, you're not an optimist. 476 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: You don't understand how technology changes and the future is 477 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: going to be better and the better batteries. Look, uh, 478 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 1: I'm I'm really probably over the optimist what technologists can 479 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: do when engineers, the innovators can do. But I also 480 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: know what the physics limits are and things that can't 481 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: be done. With the physics and the engineering. We know 482 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: how to use. Cars in the future are going to be, 483 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 1: as you know, more reliable, safer, more comfortable. All these 484 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: things are coming from credible advances and engineering and technology. 485 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 1: The automatic safety systems that are emerging, and not talking 486 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,360 Speaker 1: about self driving. But the you know, let's call them 487 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 1: self stopping technologies that are emerging prevent us from doing 488 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: bad and stupid things. This is, this is very exciting. 489 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: It's a great stuff. We're going to reduce the carnage 490 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: on the road, so we're gonna make driving more comfortable. 491 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: How we change how we fuel a car. Really it's 492 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 1: a small ball stuff. I mean, it's really it's not 493 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: very imaginative. The revolutions that are going to be exciting 494 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: it will be in things like robotics and manufacturing and 495 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: you know, how we how we how we do medical diagnostics, 496 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: and how we train people, how we learn how to 497 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: repair a car. That's but back to the car here. 498 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 1: Let me let me calibrate a core physics point to 499 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: make it clear to people who say and when I 500 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: when I talk about the difference between electric car it's 501 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 1: battery and the gasoline power car battery ways of thousand 502 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: pounds you fuel tank weighed seventy pounds, and you have 503 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: to mind five thousand pounds of stuff to make the 504 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 1: one battery the one battery, So a half ton battery 505 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: two fifty tons of stuff dug out of the earth today. 506 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 1: In the future, it will be five hundred tons, because 507 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: you know we're chasing lower grade ores. The answer is 508 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: it'll get better. My technology will get better. Well, of 509 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: course it will get better. Internal combustion edgines can get 510 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: better too, but they can't get better than the underlying 511 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: physical chemistry of the materials that you're using to create energy. 512 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: So put put this way. Everybody who has electric car, 513 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 1: who has heard of electric cars knows you measure the 514 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 1: storage of electricity in kill one hours, the same things 515 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: you pay for with your house. So what you'd want 516 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: to know is if you have a car, what you 517 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 1: care about is the power to weight ratio. What you 518 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 1: know what gearhead doesn't care about power to weight? What 519 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 1: I care about what I raised motorcycles. So the physical 520 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: chemistry of the all aviated chemicals from which we make 521 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: a battery, not the battery's power to weight ratio, but 522 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: it's underlying chemistry. Maximum of the chemicals that we use, 523 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 1: alleviated cost of chemicals per kilograms, that's what you can 524 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: you can that's what the energetics of the chemistry is. 525 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 1: The battery is realized in the tesla is about a 526 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: hundred fifty per kilogram. By the way, So it's a 527 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: lot less because it build things around machinery, hardware, controllical existence, 528 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 1: but the physics limits. So what you want to know 529 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 1: if you were designing a fast car or say a drone, 530 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 1: is what's oil because that's when you start with, when 531 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: you convert it in, it's twelve thousand wat hours per kilograms, 532 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: that's what oil is, what the oil contains, and that's 533 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 1: what's available. Now can you get twelve hours out of it? No? 534 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: But I get half out? And what I ever get 535 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: half of the energy out of the pilogram and let's 536 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 1: get a chemisture. Yeah, but theoretical you know best best 537 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 1: the prototype batteries can do that already, So now I'm comparing. 538 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: We can do the arithtic here. It's not complicated. A 539 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 1: six thousand one protelogram in total combustion capability versus a 540 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 1: two battery capability. These are extraordinary differences. So can you 541 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: make electric cars or electric drones and airplace? Sure, But 542 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: if you want to go real fast and carry heavy 543 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: loads for long distances, you can be burning oil and 544 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 1: the long time and that's the bottom one, hey, mark 545 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,960 Speaker 1: our our our time is just about up. Um. Can 546 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 1: I shamelessly plug you as there are website the listeners 547 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 1: can go to from information lay it on us. You 548 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: can do the tech hyphen pundit dot com mill and 549 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 1: so it's a tech pundit with a hyphen. And the 550 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 1: Manhattan Institute website. If you use a magic Google machine, 551 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: just type in Mark T. Mills Manhattan Institute. They'll they'll 552 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: get you to the web page. You can use the 553 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 1: Amazon Magic machine to type in my name, Mark P. 554 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: Mills and you'll get my book. And that's what we 555 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 1: want everybody to do because they need they need this information. 556 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: They really do. And you know, and you'll find a lot. 557 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 1: They're about the change, the materials, materials revolution, the change 558 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: and in virtual reality it will help us to learn 559 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: how to repair vehicles, change jobs, and about how to 560 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: I think drones are coming big time, not for people soon, 561 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 1: but but not not not too far in the future. Well, 562 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna bring you 563 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: back after the first of the year. I'm I'm asking 564 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 1: you and telling you after the first of the year, 565 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 1: off the new year with some exciting Look all want 566 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: to talk about cars and a little bit further into detail. 567 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: I gotta run Mark, but listen. It was an absolute pleasure, sir. 568 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 1: You uh, you kind of lit up everybody's world today. 569 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 1: No pun intended with electric cars. So you have yourself 570 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 1: for good rest of the holiday season. You have a 571 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,400 Speaker 1: great have a great Thank you, Mary, thank you, Marry 572 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 1: Christmas to you. Yes, sir, I'm running any of the 573 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 1: Car Doctor. We'll be back right after this bucko back 574 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 1: round name of the Car Doctor. You know, the mistake 575 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: I made Tom was I should have asked Mark that, 576 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: you know, if we could invent the flux capacity, would 577 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 1: we then have because he's right. You know, he started 578 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: talking about the comic book magic, and I saw in 579 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 1: one of his interviews he talks about comic book magic 580 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: that everybody thinks all of this technology is gonna fall 581 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 1: out of the sky, and it's just not going to 582 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: What do you mean if we if you go to 583 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: the Oreilly website, they're already advertising it. They're waiting for 584 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 1: them to come in a flux capacity. I know that 585 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,120 Speaker 1: is actually that is actually there on the Rally website. 586 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 1: But I could listen to him for hours. He just 587 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,480 Speaker 1: makes so much sense. It was just a great interview. 588 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 1: You know. It's I don't see how anybody could argue 589 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: his points. I just don't because you know, two and 590 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 1: two has to be four. Two and two is never seven. 591 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 1: And you know his commentary and one of his other 592 00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 1: interviews that I saw him do, he also talks about 593 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 1: how okay, so now you've got this electric car future 594 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 1: on the table. The amount of transmission lines and towers 595 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 1: and cables that you have to run in order to 596 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: support this this grid that everybody is talking about building, 597 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 1: and the support to the infrastructure, it's all got to 598 00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 1: be put somewhere. The material has to be found somewhere. Uh. 599 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,400 Speaker 1: You know, they also talked about solar. We didn't we 600 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 1: have so much to talk about with him. Um, with 601 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 1: regards to the way solar and renewables and and and windmills. Listen, 602 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're not going to have electric cars, 603 00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 1: and and Mark certainly proved that point tonight today that 604 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 1: we're gonna have electric vehicles in the future. It's just 605 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: not at the volume they're predicting. Um. You know, we're 606 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 1: not gonna have transporters like Star Trek in the next 607 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: ten to fifteen years. A hundred baby two hundred probably, 608 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 1: but not in the next ten to fifteen, and we're 609 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: not gonna see a massive amount of electric cars by 610 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 1: five like they're predicting either, so the back pedaling will 611 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 1: begin soon. I'm ron Anadi in the Guard Doctor, reminding 612 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,040 Speaker 1: you this time, like every time, for a great time. 613 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,279 Speaker 1: Good mechanics aren't expensive, they're priceless. See you