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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen, twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty.

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Speaker 4: Get the kicks block look College Football World, stundar.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he's stumbled and bumble the lateral, turn

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Speaker 2: a corner on the inside. Don't you be Ladna? Table

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Speaker 2: up the fail to night. It's not the side of

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Speaker 2: the game in the fight. It's the side of the

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Speaker 2: fight in the.

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Speaker 4: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: This is the week one preview. I'm stucky and with

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Speaker 4: me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 5: Are you ready to roll, buddy.

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Speaker 2: I'm ready. I've done enough time googling today whether Hugh

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Speaker 2: Freeze is going to be in a rascal or if

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Speaker 2: he's going to be using a walkie talkie to control

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Speaker 2: his team this weekend?

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Speaker 3: All right, well, yes, we will get to that. We

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Speaker 3: will get to whether Hugh frees as a walkie talkie

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Speaker 3: or not. It looks like no rascal unfortunately, but we'll

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Speaker 3: get to our beloved Liberty Boys. We'll also talk to

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Speaker 3: FCEs or no, we'll go through our favorite bets and

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Speaker 3: for those that are new here we end the Thursday podcast,

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Speaker 3: which comes out every Friday with a three and out.

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Speaker 3: So for this week, we'll talk on first Down about

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Speaker 3: Sunday and Monday night football, which we have in college.

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Speaker 5: This week, we'll also talk about our favorite Friday night bet.

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Speaker 3: We don't want to short you there, and then we'll

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Speaker 3: close out with our infamous underdog mondayline parlay for Saturdays slate.

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Speaker 3: So let's get things started with our first segment, as always,

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Speaker 3: look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 1: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 3: So for those not familiar, what we do with this

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Speaker 3: segment is we look at some situational spots which may

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Speaker 3: or may not apply, and really it comes down to

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Speaker 3: the number. And there's a lot of these, you know,

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Speaker 3: mid season, towards the end of the season, but it

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Speaker 3: still does apply in Week one and the reason for

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Speaker 3: that is, you know, you have everyone's focused effort. But

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Speaker 3: I think what it comes down to is who does

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Speaker 3: a certain team play Week two? A certain coach or

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Speaker 3: team might not want to show too much knowing that

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Speaker 3: you might not have a new scheme or some new receivers,

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Speaker 3: so you're not really going to show your new wrinkles.

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Speaker 3: If you're playing little Sisters of the Poor with a

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Speaker 3: big game on deck, you also might pull your starters

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Speaker 3: a little quicker than normal.

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Speaker 5: So that's what we look at here.

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Speaker 3: I think three games stick out in particular, and we'll

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Speaker 3: start with LSU. You and you know the big game

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Speaker 3: next week is LSU Texas one of them at least,

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Speaker 3: which we'll talk a lot about next week. But let's

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Speaker 3: start with LSU. And when we talked with LSU's beat

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Speaker 3: reporter from the Athletic, Brody Miller, he told us like, look,

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Speaker 3: he'd be surprised if they show anything here against Georgia Southern,

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Speaker 3: who's catching twenty seven points. Colin, you make it twenty

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Speaker 3: six point four over under fifty three. I'm already in

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Speaker 3: on the under at fifty three, knowing that I don't

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Speaker 3: think LSU's gonna show much. You have Georgia Southern, who's

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Speaker 3: a snail an option team. The clock's going to be moving.

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Speaker 3: I think you have two solid punters that'll help with

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Speaker 3: field position, So I'm in on the under.

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Speaker 2: What do you like here? Yeah? I actually found myself

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Speaker 2: getting to Georgia Southern twenty eight before that number finally

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Speaker 2: dipped down still suggested at twenty seven. Like you said,

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Speaker 2: you know, we talked to Brody Miller and he said,

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Speaker 2: you will see little of the playbook that's going to

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Speaker 2: be used next week when LSU goes to Austin and

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Speaker 2: plays Texas. So what that means is we're going to

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Speaker 2: see a lot of what LSU used to look like.

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Speaker 2: Probably line up, have a lot of running plays. They've

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Speaker 2: had some they've had some injuries on the offensive lines.

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Speaker 2: I think they might want to play it safe with

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Speaker 2: some of their blocking and try to rotate in maybe

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Speaker 2: you know, back up, and try to build some depth

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Speaker 2: in the offensive line. They're not going to do anything

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Speaker 2: too dynamic. I don't think we're going to see anything

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Speaker 2: that you know, we can study this tape all day

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Speaker 2: and it's not going to get as prepared for Texas,

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Speaker 2: and it's probably gonna look nothing like what that Bowl

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Speaker 2: performance was against Central Florida when they just you know,

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Speaker 2: threw downfield the entire time and had you know, explosive

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Speaker 2: plays for touchdowns all night. So, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: the thing with the over under is as I agree,

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Speaker 2: it's under City all the way, especially if LSU plays

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Speaker 2: the entire time. But I mean if the LSU defense

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Speaker 2: decides to do the same thing with depth, there could

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Speaker 2: be some points scored in the second half. Because Georgia

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Speaker 2: Southern is a triple option offense, you have to wonder

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Speaker 2: how much LSU on the defensive side of the ball

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Speaker 2: put practice into preparing for the triple option. It's the

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Speaker 2: only time they'll see it, and you don't know if

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Speaker 2: they've just moved on and started scheming for Tennessee. So

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Speaker 2: same thing for me. Georgia Southern is going to cover

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Speaker 2: I expected to be low scoring. You know, I'd be shocked.

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Speaker 2: I'd be shocked if this thing was a high scoring

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Speaker 2: affair with Joe Burrow throwing down the field.

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Speaker 3: You bring up a really good point with preparations. So

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Speaker 3: like a lot of times, if you're playing a triple

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Speaker 3: option team week one, then that gives you a lot

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Speaker 3: of time to prepare for It's a unique offense and

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Speaker 3: a lot of the advantage you have with an option

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Speaker 3: if you play a team midseason, as they might only

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Speaker 3: have a couple of days to.

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Speaker 2: Prepare for it.

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Speaker 3: But I don't necessarily think LSU is going to spend

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Speaker 3: a ton of time preparing for the option with Texas

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Speaker 3: on deck, you know, it just they can just go

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Speaker 3: out here with their athletes and win this game. So

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Speaker 3: I think you make a good point here.

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Speaker 2: I think we need to point out the fact that

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Speaker 2: both of them were top twenty in field position on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the ball, and they both bring back

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Speaker 2: their punters, they both bring back their placekickers, so it

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Speaker 2: should be excellent field position for the defense every time,

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Speaker 2: which is going to make plays, you know, make drives

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Speaker 2: even longer for Georgia Southern so special teams. It's usually

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Speaker 2: the thing that we cover here on the podcast, and

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Speaker 2: these two teams are not lacking that in their own respect.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe LSU's MVP lessure their kicker is gone, so

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Speaker 3: maybe they take a step back in that department as well.

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Speaker 3: So l's use opponent, which we mentioned was Texas. They

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Speaker 3: take on Louisiana Tech this week line twenty and a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm waiting for it to pop to twenty one to

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Speaker 3: get some Louisiana Tech.

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Speaker 5: You make it thirteen point seven.

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Speaker 3: I think the whole world, even your dentis knows by

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Speaker 3: now that Colin is low on Texas over under fifty five.

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Speaker 5: Look, I don't need to go too far into this.

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Speaker 5: Texas is a simple team people.

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Speaker 3: I have been preaching it for years. Tom Herman, you

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Speaker 3: take him as a dog. You fade him as a favorite,

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Speaker 3: sort of like Mike Tomlin. You know, as a favorite,

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Speaker 3: he's fourteen twenty two and two against the spread, that's

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Speaker 3: sub forty percent, and as an underdog he's thirteen to

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Speaker 3: two and one against the spread with a number of

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Speaker 3: just outright wins. So thirteen two and one against the

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Speaker 3: spread as an underdog, fourteen twenty two and two is

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Speaker 3: a favorite. He's a big time favorite here. La Tech

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Speaker 3: has some pieces that I like that are returning. But look,

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Speaker 3: I won't go too far into Texas is a simple

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Speaker 3: team people.

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Speaker 5: What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm trying to leave emotion out of this because

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Speaker 2: I've been a against Texas for I don't know, since January.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, since they beat Georgia and the Sugar

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Speaker 2: paraty line.

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Speaker 5: If I was already line.

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Speaker 2: Of me, yeah, we wait even get to the line

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Speaker 2: of me segment. Here we go. So let me be

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Speaker 2: analytical about this game. So my power rating is thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half on this game, and you know, even

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Speaker 2: sp plus is at fifteen. So the number is a

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Speaker 2: reflection of probably all the offseason noise and love that

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Speaker 2: Texas has generated, and bookmakers could you know, put the

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Speaker 2: number up that high and they know that they would

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Speaker 2: still take long Horn money. Circus Sports actually had this

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Speaker 2: at twenty one and a half for a little bit

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Speaker 2: of time before that got noticed and pulled down and

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Speaker 2: I was able to grab it at twenty once I

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Speaker 2: saw the twenty one and a half disappear a few

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, I knew twenty one was going to be

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Speaker 2: last call, and sure enough, here we are twenty and

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Speaker 2: a half. But I still think it's good enough to

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Speaker 2: take all the way, you know, even if it takes

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Speaker 2: a dip farther down to nineteen or twenty, I still

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Speaker 2: think it's worth worth it because Skip Holtz, he's dominant

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Speaker 2: and covering the spread when he's an underdog. He is

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Speaker 2: a very underrated coach, especially in a high underdog situation.

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Speaker 2: I think I've heard a stat photo like fourteen and

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Speaker 2: four when he's you know, double digit utderdog something like that.

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Speaker 2: But Tom Herman is the exact opposite. When you know,

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Speaker 2: we have a bet Labs over at Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: you know, there's a system out there that we use

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Speaker 2: that says, what does Tom Herman do to cover the

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Speaker 2: spread when he's at least a touchdown favorite? And that

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Speaker 2: number is ten and eighteen against the spread. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: he's just kind of the exact opposite Herman is as

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Speaker 2: a favorite as Holtz is is an underdog. So the

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Speaker 2: situation sets up really good for law Tech to go

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Speaker 2: in there. But I think it's way more than that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not going to get crazy here and

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Speaker 2: say that law Tech's going to win the game or anything.

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Speaker 2: But Texas had a whole bunch of injuries during camp

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Speaker 2: this year. During August. You know, Kante Ingram, their running

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Speaker 2: back up beat up. There's safety Cadence Stearns, which is

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Speaker 2: really the only stable thing that they had in that secondary.

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Speaker 2: He got beat up. Now both of these guys are

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Speaker 2: you know, looks like Stearns is gonna be problem and

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Speaker 2: he's gonna play the game. So we don't know the

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Speaker 2: extent of the injury. But Louisiana Tech has an explosive

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Speaker 2: pass connection of Jamar Smith to Jackois Dancy, though that

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Speaker 2: connection still exists, and that's going to give Texas a

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Speaker 2: bunch of problems and then not to mention Sam Ellinger,

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Speaker 2: who likes to stare down wide receivers and force the

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Speaker 2: ball into a receiver. He's going up against probably the

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Speaker 2: best G five cornerback out there in a Mick Robinson

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Speaker 2: if you don't know who that is. He's a lot

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Speaker 2: lawtech cornerback that will play at the next level. He

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Speaker 2: had twelve pass breakups last year. He is amazing and

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Speaker 2: he is probably going to tail and shut down Colin Johnson,

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Speaker 2: forcing sam Ellener to either look elsewhere or try to

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Speaker 2: pick up third and long on his feet. So I

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Speaker 2: love La tech in this spot one of my favorite

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Speaker 2: sides of the weekend. I haven't gotten so excited yet

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Speaker 2: to take a money line on it, but you know

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Speaker 2: that that would be the emotion part. The analytics part says,

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Speaker 2: definitely take the spread against the Horns this week.

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Speaker 3: Remember everybody, five seven five six five five zero six

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Speaker 3: six four. That's our voicemail number five seven five six

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Speaker 3: five five zero six six four. You can find it

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Speaker 3: on my Twitter at Stucky two, and I fully expect

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Speaker 3: Texas Nation to call and like Colin up.

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Speaker 5: You can line me up too, I'll be on LA Tech.

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Speaker 3: Also, look, we started this segment by saying Texas has

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Speaker 3: LSU on deck, so you know, if they do get

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Speaker 3: up by twenty four twenty seven, you can expect those

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Speaker 3: starters to come out really early. And I think, just overall,

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Speaker 3: they're not gonna show a ton.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 3: One of the ones is on the fringe of the

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Speaker 3: look ahead or look away segment is Tennessee Georgia State.

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Speaker 3: So the Viles, who I think should be improved overall

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Speaker 3: this year, they take on a Georgia State team who

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Speaker 3: was dreadful last year but brings back a ton. They

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Speaker 3: were so young, they bring back a pretty promising quarterback

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Speaker 3: with a new offensive coordinator, and that they did lose

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Speaker 3: heart who's gonna hurt on the outside end in the

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Speaker 3: return game. But this Georgia State team intrigues me because

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Speaker 3: with their new offensive coordinator, him and the head coach

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Speaker 3: were together when Apple State beat Michigan. I think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna spread it out and I think they're gonna try

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Speaker 3: and go at Tennessee, who does have a good secondary

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Speaker 3: on paper.

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Speaker 5: But there's a ton of injuries, including.

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Speaker 3: Balin Buchanan who's out, So maybe Tennessee who's came out

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Speaker 3: and said, look, we're not gonna show much. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: go very venillo. Maybe Georgia State can stay in the number,

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Speaker 3: because I do think they're gonna be really improved. The

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Speaker 3: problem is up front obvious they're going to be at

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Speaker 3: a huge disadvantage in the trenches. What do you see

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Speaker 3: here in a game, you make twenty five point three,

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Speaker 3: so right around the number.

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Speaker 2: I make the number right exactly where the market is

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Speaker 2: right now, and I've just kind of been sitting and

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Speaker 2: waiting all week. This is a game that's going to

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Speaker 2: be in the write up what we used to call

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Speaker 2: the CW nine over at the Action Network. It's going

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Speaker 2: to be in my weekly card, and I've just been

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Speaker 2: sitting on there's no reason to take twenty six. There's

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Speaker 2: no reason to take twenty five and a half. What

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Speaker 2: you're really hoping for is to get a key number.

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Speaker 2: At least twenty seven is a bit more key than

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Speaker 2: twenty six, not quite a twenty eight. And I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: be surprised to see this thing dip because I think

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Speaker 2: people aren't paying attention to the fact that Georgia State

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Speaker 2: does do something well and that is Dan Ellington can

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Speaker 2: throw the ball. I mean he comes back with ten

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Speaker 2: of his top eleven targets from last year coming back

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Speaker 2: to this team. Now Stuck mentioned it. This head coach

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Speaker 2: is reunited with an offensive coordinator. They were together for

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Speaker 2: that app State team that went into the big house

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Speaker 2: and beat Michigan. Now they're going into what I think

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Speaker 2: is even a bigger house. I think Tennessee and Michigan

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Speaker 2: likes to flip every year and say who the biggest

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Speaker 2: one is. But you know they're going to go in

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Speaker 2: here and they're going to try to expose what a

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Speaker 2: weakness in Tennessee is. And that is the fact that

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Speaker 2: cornerback Bryce Thompson is been you know, suspended, kicked off

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Speaker 2: the team. You can look up exactly what he did.

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Speaker 2: It's not a good situation. And then leading corner from

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Speaker 2: last year and nickel back Bayalin Buchanan is hurt and

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Speaker 2: he's out for this game too. So there is a

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Speaker 2: lot of injury and a lot of you know, names

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Speaker 2: that were supposed to be there, they're not going to

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Speaker 2: be there. For the volunteers and Georgia State's you know,

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Speaker 2: best way of attack is to throw it downfield and

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Speaker 2: that's something Ellington can do.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: Can they play defense? No? Can they stop what Tennessee's

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Speaker 2: going to do on offense? No? But I mean if

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Speaker 2: we can get to twenty seven and twenty eight, I'm

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Speaker 2: a full buyer. I'm gonna buy it at twenty six. Anyways,

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Speaker 2: it's just a dead number, and good gambling says. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to buy a number when it's not key.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to get something better. And if I

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Speaker 2: start to see a cave and the market starts to

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Speaker 2: catch on and say, hey, I think Georgia State can

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Speaker 2: make some noise here, then we'll see that and we'll

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Speaker 2: go ahead and get a play in the action app Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean I think that this game also warrants a

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Speaker 3: look at the over. While I don't think Tennessee wants

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Speaker 3: to show a ton with byu on. I mean, they

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Speaker 3: should just be able to run the ball at will

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Speaker 3: and the rush explosive in The numbers for Georgia State

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Speaker 3: last year were awful, their secondary was awful. Now they

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Speaker 3: were really young, but still with Tennessee's receivers and just

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Speaker 3: their horses up front, even though they have some questions

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Speaker 3: off its line. I mean This is an SEC team

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Speaker 3: versus Georgia State. So I do think that Georgia State

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Speaker 3: is going to have some success through the air, and

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Speaker 3: Tennessee should also put up points, So I think the

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Speaker 3: over is worth a look here as well. But keep

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Speaker 3: your eyes out for Collins right up on the action

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Speaker 3: app in Action network dot com. All right, so let's

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Speaker 3: move on to just the general Week one slate.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up bedding for week one.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with what I think is probably the most

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Speaker 3: anticipated game of the weekend.

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Speaker 5: It's kind of a deja vu game with Oregon Auburn.

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Speaker 3: Just like last year Auburn Washington on a neutral field,

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Speaker 3: this one will we played in a dome in Texas,

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Speaker 3: So Oregon Auburn in Texas. And this game is fascinating

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Speaker 3: to me. And because it's at three and a half

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Speaker 3: right now, and you make it what right around Auburn

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Speaker 3: two two. Because of the three and a half, I'm

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Speaker 3: starting to get tempted by Oregon. And look, what does

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Speaker 3: scare me is the po PAC twelve versus the SEC.

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Speaker 3: I know, that's just the popular narrative, but it's true.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you go back to two thousand and

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Speaker 3: five in games involving two top twenty five teams in

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Speaker 3: the non conference, the SEC is thirty and sixteen against

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Speaker 3: all other ranked teams out of conference, so that speaks

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Speaker 3: of their class in the spot.

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Speaker 5: When you look at both teams.

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Speaker 3: The matchup we've talked about in the offseason is Oregon's

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Speaker 3: offensive line versus Auburn's defensive line Auburn. Auburn does have

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Speaker 3: some defensive tackles that are banged up, but this is

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Speaker 3: still one of the best defensive lines in college football.

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Speaker 3: Oregon has the most experienced and one of the best

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Speaker 3: offensive lines. Great matchup. I also think it's worth mentioning.

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Speaker 3: Which is scaring me about Oregon is the kicking game.

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Speaker 3: Oregon has three kickers listed. Carlson has a big leg

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Speaker 3: for Auburn. That was a big advantage for Auburn last

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Speaker 3: year against Washington. It could be once again this year.

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Speaker 3: But I keep going back to Justin Herbert at quarterback

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Speaker 3: with Oregon. He's in his experiences thirty starts. He does

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Speaker 3: have some questions at receiver with a couple guys banged up,

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Speaker 3: and then there's been drop problems, but his experience versus

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Speaker 3: bo Nix, who's a true freshman, first true freshman making

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Speaker 3: a start in the season opener for Auburn, I think

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Speaker 3: over seventy years, they lost their top two receivers from

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Speaker 3: last year, and bow Knicks is really talented, but the

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Speaker 3: four receivers main receivers that he's going to be working

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Speaker 3: with are also super talented. One of the fastest players

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Speaker 3: in college football.

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Speaker 2: Is one of them.

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Speaker 3: But they've been hurt and have rarely practiced all during camp,

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Speaker 3: so there's almost no rapport in chemistry there. I'm thinking, So,

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Speaker 3: I don't know how effective bo Nix is going to

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Speaker 3: be with those receivers without really any time together against

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Speaker 3: an Oregon secondary that does bring back some experience. So

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Speaker 3: you know, that difference between Herbert and Nix and the

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Speaker 3: lack of time he's had with his receivers, I think

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Speaker 3: is is getting me to look a little harder at Oregon.

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Speaker 5: You what are you saying here?

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Speaker 2: I mean, backing a team with the true freshman quarterback

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Speaker 2: is a little you know, feels a little dicey with

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Speaker 2: college game day, I mean, it's it's such a huge event,

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Speaker 2: but I mean bo Nicks has been mentioned in the

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Speaker 2: Tua and Trevor type of quarterback to come out of college, So,

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Speaker 2: you know, Gus Mauzon has stated that Joey Gaatetwood's going

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Speaker 2: to get plenty of play. I think it really all

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Speaker 2: depends on what is the best plan of attack against

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Speaker 2: the Oregon defense. Is who's going to get the most

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Speaker 2: playing time, So expect to see both of them, just

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Speaker 2: depends on who's moving the ball. As far as the

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Speaker 2: other side, I mean, the highlight of this game is

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Speaker 2: going to be the Auburn defense against the Oregon offense.

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Speaker 2: Auburn has probably the best defensive line in the country.

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Speaker 2: Two players on that line are are going to go

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Speaker 2: in the in the first round of the NFL Draft.

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Speaker 2: They're going up against one of the best offensive lines

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Speaker 2: in the country against Oregon, you know, so Herbert Herbert's

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Speaker 2: still going to be under pressure. And Auburn was seventeenth

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Speaker 2: in defensive line havoc rate. I expect that to increase

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Speaker 2: seventeenth and havoc rate on the defensive line. They should be,

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Speaker 2: could be and should be top ten this year. So

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Speaker 2: we'll see how Herbert does. You know, as far as

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Speaker 2: being on the road. Being on the oh is not

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Speaker 2: a good thing for Orgon under Herbert. They're five and

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Speaker 2: thirteen on the roads. They've had a hard time trying

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Speaker 2: to find points. They've had a hard time trying to

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Speaker 2: find wins. You know, they've already lost wide receiver Making Pittman.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we'll see what happens here. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the new defensive coordinator for Orgon scares me a lot,

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Speaker 2: with Andy Avolos, not so much as and I don't

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Speaker 2: think he's a good defensive coordinator. He's gonna be blitzing

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Speaker 2: all the time, and why wouldn't you against a true

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Speaker 2: freshman quarterback. But my problem with him is is this

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Speaker 2: isn't Jim Livitz three four. This is Andy Avolos's three

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Speaker 2: to four where he likes to have a stud end

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Speaker 2: player move it around and all of a sudden, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna see like a two, two, three four, you know,

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Speaker 2: a one to five five. I mean, this guy's got

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Speaker 2: all different kinds of complexity in his playbook and the

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Speaker 2: where he wants to stunt from. Is that too much

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Speaker 2: for the Oregon defense to learn? Is that something that

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Speaker 2: they're gonna miss? Is that something that Gus Mauzon can

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Speaker 2: scheme out of Gus mentioned in his Monday presser that

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Speaker 2: the key to winning this game was in game adjustments,

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Speaker 2: not halftime adjustments, in game adjustments, and he says that

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Speaker 2: he will be very ready after two or three drives

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Speaker 2: to know exactly what he has to do to execute

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Speaker 2: and get this victory home. And if it comes down

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Speaker 2: to me taking Gus mauson against Mario Cristobal, then I'm

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Speaker 2: swallowing the I'm swallowing the points all day and going

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Speaker 2: with Auburn here. So I've already got to play on

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Speaker 2: at Auburn. You know, I got it minus two and

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Speaker 2: a half. I've got pieces of minus three. You know,

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Speaker 2: three and a half is where you start. I would

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Speaker 2: start lowering how much I'm actually going to bet on Auburn,

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Speaker 2: but you know I'm on Auburn all the way here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and we'll have a really in depth bet in

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Speaker 3: God on this game, So make sure you check that out.

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Speaker 3: And we might disagree on that Oregon Auburn gave it.

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Speaker 3: We vehemently disagree on Mississippi State Louisiana Lafayette.

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Speaker 5: Louisiana is catching twenty and a half here.

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Speaker 3: I did get them a little earlier over three touchdowns

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Speaker 3: if you follow me on the app. Now, the big

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Speaker 3: black cloud here is the Mississippi State suspensions. You know,

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Speaker 3: for those not familiar, Mississippi State received sanctions from like

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Speaker 3: a tutor because of a tutor, and there's ten players

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Speaker 3: I believe that are suspended, but because of like some

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Speaker 3: family and something act, Joe Moorehead is not allowed to

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Speaker 3: say who those players are until a couple hours before

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Speaker 3: game time on Saturday. So I think that the market

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Speaker 3: has come down a little bit, knowing that it can

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Speaker 3: only hurt Mississippi State, right, So the number came out

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Speaker 3: and then the suspension, so it came down across the

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Speaker 3: three touchdown mark. But if there's like seven starters that

435
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: are out, that line's going to come down more. If

436
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 3: it's no one impactful, the line's going to go up,

437
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 3: you know. So it's going to be what we're going

438
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,640
Speaker 3: to be looking for on Saturday morning. But the reason

439
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 3: that I like Louisiana, you know, for a number of reasons,

440
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 3: and I wrote up this game if you haven't checked

441
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: it out on the Action app, but they have to

442
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 3: replace a new quarterback. But I actually think it's a

443
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 3: step up. Andre Nuniaz was not that efficient. And I

444
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 3: actually believe in Levi Lewis, and he bring he gets

445
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 3: all five senior starting offensive lineman back, all of his

446
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 3: weapons on the outside back and then a three headed

447
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 3: monster at running back, which might be the best trio

448
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 3: and just running back group in general in the entire

449
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 3: group of five. Now, they got shut down last year

450
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 3: and they got blown out, you know, fifty six to

451
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 3: ten against Mississippi State in Stark, Vegas.

452
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:03,600
Speaker 2: And that game.

453
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 3: They've been talking about that game all summer. You know,

454
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 3: this is kind of their revenge spot. This will be

455
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 3: in New Orleans, so it's a neutral field, but you know,

456
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 3: a little closer to Louisiana, but there's not gonna be

457
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 3: a huge home field advantage. But they've been talking about

458
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 3: this game for a long time. They got shut down.

459
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 3: And this is a group of backs that averaged you know,

460
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 3: six point eight yards per carrying, ran for close to

461
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 3: three thousand yards last year. But Mississippi State shut down everyone.

462
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 3: They led the nation in yards per play, their top

463
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 3: five and rushing defense, but they lost their entire defensive line,

464
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 3: including two that went in the first round of the

465
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 3: NFL Draft. That's enormous two first rounders on the defensive line,

466
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 3: which set the tone for the entire defense. Now, Louisiana

467
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 3: is a Sunbelt defense, and you expect that Joe moorehead offense,

468
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: but now a capable quarterback you know in the transfer

469
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 3: Tommy Stevens who won that battle, to be able, and

470
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 3: I think Thompson is gonna end up transferring who he

471
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 3: beat out. But you expect their offense to take a

472
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 3: step forward. And Louisiana's defense is nothing to write home about,

473
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: but at least they bring back a ton of experience.

474
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 3: But I just think that they'll be able to move

475
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 3: the ball on the ground.

476
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 4: I do.

477
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 3: I'm not sure how much Mississippi State cares about this game.

478
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,360
Speaker 3: There's all these sanctions and suspensions that are distracting them.

479
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 3: So I think Louisiana's offense can have some success here.

480
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 3: But you completely disagree and make this number twenty six.

481
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm the only person that likes Mississippi State.

482
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: I have quietly liked MISSISST because I haven't said anything,

483
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 2: I haven't tweeted anything. I didn't want any part of

484
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 2: saying well, hey, wait a minute, what about this and

485
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 2: this and this So this isn't one of those podcasts

486
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 2: where I say, now we're just not going to give

487
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 2: you the answer. I'm going to blow up the market

488
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: and then I'm going to tell you what I did.

489
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 2: So No, Billy Napier has an excellent offense there. He

490
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 2: has created just this three headed running back monster that

491
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 2: they were fifth overall and explosive in isoppp that's explosive runs.

492
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 2: They were tenth and finishing drive. So anytime the Rage

493
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 2: of Cages get it down past the forty yard line,

494
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: they were able to convert it to points. They do

495
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 2: lose Andrey Nyunie as a quarterback, but they're going to

496
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 2: come back with Levi Lewis he steps in. There shouldn't

497
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 2: be that much change, at least from the under center.

498
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: You know, they're still going to be as explosive they

499
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: get all of their offensive line back. There is a

500
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: lot to love about UL This year we discussed this

501
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: on our G five podcasts about the sun Belt and

502
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: how explosive these guys are. Don't let the latest come

503
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 2: between you and the bill. But there's something on the

504
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: defense that just bothered me the entire time about these guys,

505
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 2: and it was the fact that they were one hundred

506
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: and twenty fifth against explosive plays last year when Nick

507
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 2: Fitzgerald took on the seam. Nick Fitzgerald, who had probably

508
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: one of the worst seasons as a college football quarterback,

509
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 2: you know, ever, went fourteen of twenty one, had over

510
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty yards passing, had two touchdowns, and

511
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 2: no I iNTS. Move the ball at will through the

512
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 2: air against ull And that just makes me a little

513
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: bit nervous. Because Joe Moorehead is back, but this time

514
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 2: he has his quarterback. I think it's I think it's hilarious.

515
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 2: The Keyton Thompson, you know, is upset and wanted to

516
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: transfer because he didn't win the starting position. He still

517
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: has two years of eligibility left. Tommy Stevens barely lost

518
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 2: the job to Trace McSorley under Joe Moorehead years ago

519
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: an State. This was always going to be the starter.

520
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 2: He just has one year left of eligibility after Tommy

521
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 2: Stevens has done. I'm sure Keyton Thompson maybe the guy

522
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 2: next year. You don't know what that conversation is, but

523
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 2: what the Cages have done, what the Sunbuilt defense has done,

524
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 2: is atrocious. When teams come in to pass, and Tommy

525
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 2: Stevens has the ability, has the potential to run anybody

526
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: up if they have a weakness in their secondary which

527
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 2: Ull does. Now, as far as these suspensions go, the

528
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 2: reason why the points sparat has come down because of

529
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 2: the suspensions, the sanctions that they were supposed to come

530
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: on them a tutor was doing their homework. This will

531
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 2: include the basketball team too. Apparently it's ten players. They

532
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: don't know who the ten players are. We don't know

533
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 2: if it's defense, we don't know it's offense. All I

534
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: know is is not Tommy Stevens because Tommy Stevens wasn't

535
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: there in school last year. So Tommy Stevens is still

536
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: going to be there. But the team has known who

537
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: these players are. Joe Moorehead said in his presser on Monday,

538
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: I will announce who it is before kickoff. But we

539
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 2: have adjusted our depth charts and we have played with

540
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 2: the first and second string that is going to be

541
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: the result of these suspensions. So it's not like it's

542
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: a big secret and these players are going to find

543
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,239
Speaker 2: out on everybody knows. The only people that are going

544
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 2: to be surprised by these names is the general public.

545
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: The people that are betting, so as the number has

546
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 2: come down below twenty one, and it since in twenty

547
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: twenty and a half, I expect when these suspensions are

548
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: announced about an hour before kick on Saturday morning, think

549
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: Youlo is going to take even more money. I think

550
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 2: it's going to get so outrageous and get down so

551
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 2: far that I mean, this is a Sun Belt offensive

552
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: line going up against what a bunch of guys that

553
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: don't have experience. For Mississippi State, they still field NFL

554
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: players all the time, So I mean, even though these

555
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: guys aren't experienced, I mean, I doubt these guys that

556
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 2: are playing offensive line for the you know, in a

557
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: Sun Belt school are big enough to push around even

558
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: guys without experience.

559
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 3: Even if it's an experienced defensive line, it's still a

560
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 3: huge drop off from two first rounders to whoever they're.

561
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 5: Putting in their defense is not gonna be as good

562
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 5: as it was last year.

563
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: The score was fifty six to ten with Nick Fitzgerald

564
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 2: all right, So all right, So from my standp point,

565
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 2: I'm waiting until Saturday, about thirty minutes before kick, I'm

566
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: waiting for the suspensions to come out. I'm waiting for

567
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: mass overreaction. I'm gonna be on Missipi state. I'll have

568
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 2: money down before the kick.

569
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 5: I will be against you there.

570
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 3: I mean, maybe we can both hit the lands twenty one,

571
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 3: but go raging cases and don't sleep on their special

572
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 3: teams as well.

573
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 5: Very solid.

574
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: All right, let's quickly cover Bama Duke. I'm sure there's

575
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,239
Speaker 3: a lot of Bama fans out there that want to hear.

576
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 3: We won't go to a depth. Everyone knows how good

577
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: Bama is. Duke is replacing Daniel Jones. I will say

578
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 3: that Kutlub's been phenomenal against the spread in his career

579
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 3: at the back, seventy two to fifty five and four

580
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 3: against the spread, and everyone knows. I think it's the

581
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 3: narrative that's out there now when Bama's a thirty plus

582
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 3: point favor they're terrible sabans eleven and twenty two against

583
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: the spread since two thousand and five when he's favored

584
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 3: by thirty plus. And the reason I'm not a trend

585
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: player unless there's you know, Corel that there's causality with

586
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 3: the correlation and there's meaning behind it, and there is

587
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: in this case. That's because Alabama it's generally gonna be

588
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 3: a little inflated. But also they just park the bus.

589
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: Saban just says, all right, I'm done to pull all

590
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: of our starters. Will go very vanilla. He's never going

591
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 3: to run it up. And this year, I think that

592
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: might even be the case, even more so because there's

593
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 3: a lot of depth issues with Alabama for the first

594
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 3: time in a while, so you know, they lost a

595
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: ton of NFL talent. There's you know, some injuries that

596
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: they're dealing with, So staying healthy I think this early

597
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 3: in the year is really important to save it. I've

598
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 3: been waiting for this thing to touch thirty five, and

599
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: I think it did for a second, and I was

600
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: in the shower, so I didn't get it. You can't

601
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: even shower during football season. But I don't think it's

602
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 3: going to touch thirty five again. But I like, I

603
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 3: like Duke over thirty one, you make it twenty eight.

604
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 3: Will you be on the Blue Devils with me?

605
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: And maybe only me? I've texted with you. You don't

606
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 2: have one of those androids that you can take into

607
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 2: the shower and get your bets in while that's going on.

608
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 3: No, I actually do take my phone into my to

609
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 3: my shower all the time, and then like eventually my

610
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 3: fingers get too wet, and then my screen is wet,

611
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 3: and then I have to put it down and throw

612
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 3: it out into a towel, so I actually do, and

613
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 3: then eventually I have to all right, I gotta watch myself.

614
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: I think that was the Dre song that you just yeah,

615
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 2: so okay, so yeah. Dylan Moses linebacker, he's out for

616
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: the season. That is an excruciating loss for Alabama. Joshua

617
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 2: McMillan has already been lost for the season. I don't

618
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 2: know what it is with this group. I don't know

619
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: what it is with the defense, you know. I don't

620
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 2: know if it's the strength and conditioning coaching that's going

621
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: on at Alabama. But this has just become a yearly thing.

622
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: And I've said this over and over and over and

623
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: at nauseum through the whole offseason. The offensive line lost

624
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,360
Speaker 2: a lot of career starts, and they the number one

625
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: job of this Alabama team is to keep to a

626
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: healthy If he's not healthy, we could be back in

627
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 2: the Greg McElroy days of having three losses. So that

628
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: would be crazy and a lot of people would be

629
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 2: flushing their money down the toilet, probably except for me.

630
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: But Duke is I don't think got the ability to

631
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,959
Speaker 2: beat them whatsoever. Their quarterback Quinton Harris, we saw him

632
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: come in and play Baylor.

633
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 5: You I think, I know.

634
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 2: I was on there for a lot of money. I

635
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 2: think you were too. But I mean Duke came out

636
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 2: and just thrashed Baylor last year. But Quentin Harris was

637
00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 2: in that game. The question is is can he hit

638
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 2: a tight end like Noah Gray or can he hit

639
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 2: one of his unproven targets over the middle where those

640
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,719
Speaker 2: Bama linebackers are. I have this number at twenty eight,

641
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: so even though it's taking a dip and I expected

642
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 2: to dip more, this is good. I think at thirty

643
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: one and a half, I think it's good all the

644
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 2: way up to thirty four. It's probably gonna bounce between there.

645
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 2: No matter how many injuries I think happened on the

646
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball, there's still gonna people that

647
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 2: are going to line up at the window looking to

648
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 2: bet Bama as much as possible, Throw them in as

649
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 2: many money lines and teasers and everything else as possible.

650
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: So I like Duke. I like all the numbers that

651
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: you can get thirty one and.

652
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 3: Above all, right, that's talk some acc ball and Pitt Virginia.

653
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 3: I think there's a big game in the a SEC

654
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 3: and that for both teams and win totals and division.

655
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 3: Early in the year, Virginia's two and a half point

656
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: favorite over under forty six forty six and a half.

657
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: I actually really like the under here. And you know,

658
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 3: Pitt lost two thousand yard backs who ran for They

659
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 3: ran wild on Virginia last year ran for two hundred

660
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: and fifty three yards. But now they you know, Kenny

661
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 3: Pickett's back at quarterback. You know they have Mark Whipple

662
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 3: comes in from UMass. You know, he might have some

663
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: air Nardoozzi, which is very unlike our Nardoozy, but they

664
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: might be more of a passing attack this year at

665
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: the losing those two backs. They have some talented receivers,

666
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 3: you know French at MAC but that's playing right into

667
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: UVa's strength. I mean, UVA has an excellent, excellent secondary,

668
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,719
Speaker 3: great set of linebackers, so you know it's I mean,

669
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 3: they have one of the best corners, I think, in

670
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: Bryce Hall in the country, so I think you know

671
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: he could shut down French. They can give help on

672
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: the other side with the other corner, so I think

673
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: they're going to struggle to be with the ball. Virginia.

674
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: You know, I'm just still not impressed with their offense.

675
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: They lost their you know, Bryce Perkins is back, They're

676
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 3: still going to struggle in the red zone. They lost

677
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: their top receiver. So I think this game is actually

678
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: ugly in a very meaningful game, and I'm taking the under.

679
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 5: What are you seeing here?

680
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, under is probably the look, although I'm not sure

681
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: there's much there's much value in it because it as

682
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: an opener of forty nine is down to forty six.

683
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: But Virginia was one hundred and twenty fifth in the

684
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: nation at adjusted pace, so they like to play a

685
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 2: really slow brand and a ball you know, Pittsburgh loses

686
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: their running backs, so there could be some passing going

687
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: with Kenny Pickett and their new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple,

688
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 2: who comes over from UMass, there's probably gonna be a

689
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: lot more throwing. So listen, pit won this game twenty

690
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 2: five or thirteen last year that you know, they weren't

691
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 2: supposed to win that game either. I just think Kny

692
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 2: Picktt will be a much better quarterback with Kenny Whipple

693
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 2: in the house. This number as you and I hit

694
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: the record here went from two and a half to three.

695
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 2: So as much as I want to take Pitt, and

696
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 2: I think that you know this, I think the game

697
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: is a complete coin flip. But you know, for reasons

698
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: of beating them before having experience, and I like Mark

699
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: Whipple is the addition, you know, Euva loss a starting

700
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 2: cornerback Darius Braxon, the injury. I think that helps for

701
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: Mark Whipple to game plan, for Kenny Pickett to throw.

702
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: There's just certain reasons why I like Pitt. I'm willing

703
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 2: to let it steam out, maybe get above three if

704
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: I can. I think if you lose this game, you

705
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: potentially might be knocked out of the coastal. It's crazy

706
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: to say that, but you know there's some of these

707
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 2: acc games are very important as far as tiebreakers go.

708
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 3: All right, so let's do some big and rapid fire.

709
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: I know there's a lot of Michigan and Ohio State

710
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 3: fans out there that listen to the pod. So kylein,

711
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say one sentence, ask you a question,

712
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: you answer, and give me one or two sentences back

713
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: Florida Atlantic, Ohio State. You make this line twenty point seven.

714
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 3: It's at twenty seven and.

715
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 5: A half right now.

716
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 3: Florida Atlantic I think could be a little better than

717
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 3: last year, and if they had a disappointed year, it

718
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 3: really comes down to ropes in a quarterback. Ohio State

719
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 3: hasn't been getting a lot of love national media. Maybe

720
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 3: they want to make a statement here and blow out Fau.

721
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 3: But if this gets to twenty eight, don't I have

722
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: to take Fau?

723
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 5: Yes?

724
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: Or no? You do until Ohio State learns how to

725
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: solve stopping explosive plays on defense, they're a play against team.

726
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 3: And Michigan Middle Tennessee State. I'm really high on Michigan.

727
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 3: They obviously have a new offense. How much are they

728
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 3: going to show we don't know, but they're playing a

729
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee's state team we think is going to be

730
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: dreadful that lost a ton.

731
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 5: Does Michigan name this here?

732
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: And should you lay thirty four and a half stay

733
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: away or look at the.

734
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: Blue Raiders, which I hope you don't say, do not

735
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: take Middle to this Sea State. They have one of

736
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: the worst returning production ranks and you can't understate how

737
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: much it is when a coach loses a five year

738
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: quarterback starter that was his son. The question is not

739
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: whether Michigan is going to win or by how much,

740
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: it's really when do they pull back that Josh Gaddis

741
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: playbook and say nope, We're just going to go play

742
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: bully ball. That's why maybe a first quarter in a

743
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: first half bet is better than a full game.

744
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: All right, fair enough. I just wanted to make sure

745
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 3: we covered both of those teams before we got to

746
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 3: the podcast.

747
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 5: Favorite team.

748
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're catching out at the nineteen and a half,

749
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 3: you make it fourteen and a half over under sixty eight.

750
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: We've mentioned Hugh Freeze. We have Buckshot back at quarterback,

751
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 3: and look Hugh Freeze, who's back in the fold. People

752
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 3: don't realize he was an against the spread machine covering

753
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 3: machine forty three to twenty eight and one against the

754
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 3: spread as a head coach.

755
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 2: Big Ray to start the game, but at halftime, if

756
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: things aren't going so, we'll going to go to Pazuka.

757
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 3: This has the potential to be one of the highest

758
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 3: scoring games the weekend. Does Liberty stay within the number

759
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 3: and could they potentially pull off a stunner?

760
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 2: Yeah? I love Liberty to stay within the number. I

761
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: got it at fourteen and a half. I think I'm

762
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 2: not gonna I would never mention names or call anybody out.

763
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 2: But there is a video I watched with somebody filming

764
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 2: their pick service what they were taking for the weekend.

765
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 2: They filmed it from a Vegas book and somebody said,

766
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: I'm taking Syracuse no matter what, because I don't even

767
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: know who Liberty is. I don't know where Liberty's at.

768
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: I don't even know Liberty had a football team. You

769
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: probably shouldn't be doing college football if you don't know

770
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: who Liberty is, or the fact that they have Buckshot Calvert.

771
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: You got a big chip on our SHOWLDO. We love Liberty.

772
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: You know they are you know they're nineteenth and adjusted

773
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: pace last year. They are a highly explosive team. This

774
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: Liberty team has who Freeze, which has proven at Arkansas

775
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: State and Old Miss to turn around programs not by

776
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: one or two wins, but by four wins or six wins.

777
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: He can get things moving fast. He's brought in some

778
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: new guys on defense. Maybe they can do better than

779
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: you know the one hundred and I think twelveth through

780
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 2: one hundred and nineteenth is what they ranked last year.

781
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 2: One hundred and twenty third against the rush. But Liberty

782
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 2: has a very capable offense. They have a very capable quarterback,

783
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: They have wide receivers that can get down the field. Syracuse,

784
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 2: on the other hand, you know, I don't know why

785
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: they're traveling deliberatey. I think the question should be is

786
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,919
Speaker 2: why Syracuse traveling to Liberty? How did that ever happen?

787
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 2: But you know, I don't think Syracuse cares about this

788
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: game one second. I'm not a big fan of Tommy DeVito.

789
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 2: His completion rate last year was off. He doesn't seem

790
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: to be able to make as clutch decisions as explosive

791
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: decisions as Eric Dungee did. Really, this is not a

792
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 2: typical Syracuse team that you've seen the last two years.

793
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: They don't have the same personnel. They don't have as

794
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: good of players on offensive side of the ball. So

795
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: I think what you're going to see is Liberty surprise

796
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: to people here. I like it all the way down

797
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: to fourteen, but I'm definitely gonna let the number rise.

798
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 2: He keeps going, and once it gets up to twenty

799
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 2: or twenty or twenty one, it's time to buy.

800
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 5: Yep. I'm with you.

801
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 3: I will be joining you. On Liberty and I'm also

802
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 3: waiting on that number to rise. So the last game

803
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 3: that we'll go through here is SMU Arkansas State. And

804
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 3: you know, I was looking to fade Arkansas State early

805
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 3: in the year because I was lower on them. With

806
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 3: this number, I have no value doing so, so I

807
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 3: didn't bet the side, but I actually bet the total.

808
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: So SMU, you know, has Shamee Bouchell in the transfer

809
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 3: from Texas at quarterback. They have two pretty talented receivers

810
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 3: in James Prochet and Reggie Roberson, you know, but they

811
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 3: couldn't run the ball las year. Their offensive line was

812
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 3: a mess. That's a disaster against Arkansas State, who has

813
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 3: one of the best defensive lines in the entire group

814
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: of five. And if you're gonna beat Arkansas State, you

815
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 3: got to really run at them. You can't let them

816
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: get pressure on your quarterback. But SMU can't really run

817
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 3: the ball, and I'm not hopeful that they'll be able

818
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 3: to this year. And the other side of the ball,

819
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 3: Arkansas State brings a ton back, especially at the skill positions,

820
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 3: but they lost you know, their quarterback has been there

821
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 3: forever and are replacing with Logan Bonner. Justin Hansen to

822
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 3: Logan Bonner. I think is an enormous drop off at

823
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 3: SMU's defense was surprisingly good last year and they bring

824
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 3: back a ton. You know, both these teams, their defensive

825
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 3: returning production is up there. So I think this is

826
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 3: going to be a lot lower scoring. I know that

827
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: it's you know, when you think SMU Arkansas State, you know,

828
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 3: you have Arkansas State usually as a prolific passing attack,

829
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 3: you know, and you think with sunny dikes, and you

830
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 3: think of you know, the air raid. But I actually

831
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,399
Speaker 3: think this is going to go under. I played under

832
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 3: fifty six. What are you seeing here?

833
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking Arkansas State. They're gonna have a lot

834
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: of high emotions going on with their head coach, whether

835
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: he's on the sideline or not. You know, I think

836
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 2: Arkansas State is playing with the reason. They're going to

837
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 2: have some passion. They'll play a full four quarters. They

838
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 2: have been prepared for what's going on off the field

839
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 2: the entire time. I actually make this number six. Earlier

840
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 2: in the week, this number was dummied down to about

841
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: one and a half before it had some extremely sharp

842
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 2: buy back up to three. So I think anything three

843
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: minus two and a half is the play here on

844
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: these guys sires major questions on the offensive line, not

845
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 2: only just how they played last year, but they have

846
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: a lot of losses while Arkansas State has one of

847
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: the most experienced from seven's at least in all of

848
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 2: the G five. You know, they were eleventh and sack

849
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: rate last year, so there's gonna be a lot of

850
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: pressure applied from that standpoint. And then in passing S

851
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: and P plus Arkansas State finished thirty first overall, they

852
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 2: were twenty first in opponent efficiency. There are a lot

853
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: to deal with when it comes to, you know, throwing,

854
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 2: and that's what some diyxas is going to want to

855
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 2: do all day. So for me, this is an Arkansas

856
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 2: State playing a home game, high emotions. You're going to

857
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: get a full four quarters and an SMU team that

858
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 2: is going to play right into the hands of what

859
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 2: Arkansas State's defense does best and struggling with an offensive line.

860
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 2: So Arkansas State all the way.

861
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you that what SMU does well,

862
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 3: Arkansas State can counter. And then I think Arkansas State,

863
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 3: with the drop off at quarterback, you know, and SMU's defense,

864
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: which was surprisingly good last year, I think will be

865
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: even more improved this year with a great coordinator. This

866
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 3: game is going to go under before we get to

867
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 3: FCS or No. One more quick rapid fire session. We

868
00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 3: hated on Northwestern all last year Cats Cats, and hated

869
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: on Stanford for their jump balls, Northwestern for their voodoo

870
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: black magic fuckery if you will. So which team of

871
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 3: the point of the podcast least favorite teams gets to

872
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 3: cover this weekend out in Cali.

873
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 2: We're gonna take Stanford, not Northwestern. I mean, Northwestern was

874
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 2: the one that I mean, at least at least Stanford

875
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 2: was exposed finally by Notre Dame, who could actually defend

876
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 2: the pass and defend you know, receivers receiving targets that

877
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 2: were six foot seven and could tip ball to themselves.

878
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 2: At least Stanford got exposed at one point. But this

879
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 2: Northwestern team is just you know, they should have lost

880
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: so many games last year that they that they ended

881
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: up winning. But this one, I don't think they're gonna

882
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: pull off the number. I have it at nine, sitting

883
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 2: at six right now, it's going to go up to seven.

884
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 2: Some sharp money in the market that's taking Stanford, even

885
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,280
Speaker 2: though it looks like, you know, most of the ticketcount

886
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: and most of the money is on Northwestern. The numbers

887
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 2: move in the other way. I mean, Northwestern loses their

888
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 2: best defensive back in pass breakups in Monterrey Hartage, he

889
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 2: cycles out, and kJ Costello should be able to throw

890
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: against a secondary that doesn't have a single player over

891
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 2: six foot one. Northwestern was one hundred and fifteenth in

892
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 2: sack rate last year and they were one hundred and

893
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: sixteenth in opponent completion rate, which means Stanford's going to

894
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: be able to just throw all day. And kJ Costello

895
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 2: is an excellent quarterback, so you know, this Northwestern defense

896
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 2: doesn't have the size on the back seven to keep

897
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 2: up or defend what kJ Costello wants to do. And

898
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 2: the best way to avoid Patty Fisher is to throw

899
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: over his head. So Stanford all the way and.

900
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 3: The second one Florida State Boise State notable because this

901
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 3: game has been moved to Tallahassee because of the hurricane.

902
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: So you obviously saw an adjustment with the game being

903
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 3: moved and now Florida State's up to seven. Is that

904
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 3: too much of adjustment? Do you like the Noles here?

905
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 3: I know you're high on them or staying away?

906
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's too much of an adjustment. I had the

907
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 2: number at five and a half. I think, let me see,

908
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 2: I did not include neutrals. So yeah, even with bringing

909
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 2: in Florida State's home field advantage, that would make the

910
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 2: game directly on seven. So there's no value in either side.

911
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,439
Speaker 2: But I will say there is a certain the level

912
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 2: of Florida State can blow you out. They have something

913
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: to prove, they have a chip on their shoulder. Kendall

914
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,760
Speaker 2: Briars is here not just to you know, rehabilitate an offense,

915
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 2: but to make a statement and save Willie Tagger's job.

916
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 2: You know, Boise State is starting a new quarterback of

917
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 2: their own. They have new defensive coordinator also because they

918
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: lost their defensive coordinator to Oregon. So everything here screams

919
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 2: Florida State, and now they're in their home stadium. So

920
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: if I had if I was in a pick and

921
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 2: pool and I had to take a side, hopefully there's

922
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 2: a stale line in there. But if it's an updated

923
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 2: line up to seven, I'd still take Florida State because

924
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: they definitely have the ability to blow you out if

925
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: they seem to get things figured out at the offensive line,

926
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 2: which will in turn make things in the other units

927
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 2: much better.

928
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all gonna It's all gonna come down the

929
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 3: offensive line for the Noles, who should be better this

930
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: year with a lot of upside.

931
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 5: All right, so let's move on to my favorite segment.

932
00:40:55,160 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 6: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big ten. It's time

933
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 6: to play FC yes or no?

934
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 3: All right, for those new who are need a refresher,

935
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 3: this is the segment where we talk about some of

936
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 3: the biggest FCS versus FBS matchups or.

937
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 5: The games that we really like an FCS team.

938
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 3: And I tend to not like a ton early in

939
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 3: the year in the FCS realm, but I had two

940
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 3: games circled this week with James Madison and Illinois State.

941
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 3: And Illinois State's going to Northern Illinois, James Madison is

942
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 3: going to West Virginia. I wanted to get over a

943
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,240
Speaker 3: touchdown with each and these lines can under a touchdown.

944
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 3: By the way, James Madison might be the best team

945
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 3: at the FCS level. You know, they bring back everyone

946
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 3: on defense, and they bring it back Ben Denucci, former

947
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 3: pit quarterback, a quarterback, a ton on offense. This team

948
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: is really good. Same could be said about Illinois State.

949
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 3: They bring back everyone. I think they're in the top

950
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 3: ten and FCS one of these team is going to

951
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 3: pull an upset, So maybe I'll just throw you know,

952
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 3: whatever you can and a couple of peanuts on both

953
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 3: for the money line. But you know, at the end

954
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 3: of the day, these are still two FCS teams going

955
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: on the road, and you know, one of them, especially

956
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 3: James Madison, going on the road against the Power five

957
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 3: team and getting under a touchdown. So I do I'll

958
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 3: have a ton in the FCS space this weekend. But

959
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 3: if I can get either one of them over a touchdown,

960
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 3: which it might, I'll take a bite.

961
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 5: What do you say you like Indiana State? You're fading

962
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 5: Kansas already?

963
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 2: Oh, of course already all year. No, to Stucky's point,

964
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: the bookmakers have gotten a lot better at making points

965
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 2: spreads for FCSFBS games because some of these are sharp,

966
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 2: they're under ten. Just the kind of the exposure of

967
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,919
Speaker 2: the FCS has gotten over the past couple of years,

968
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 2: people are starting to pay attention to returning production for FCS.

969
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: Teams are starting to be more coverage in the preseason,

970
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 2: and I think with that comes the fact that you know,

971
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 2: generally you would think a team like Northern Iowa is

972
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 2: a powerhouse on the FCS level, and you would think

973
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 2: that that might give Iowa stay a little bit of

974
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 2: a scare, but you know, it's easy to find out

975
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 2: that Northern Iowa can't pick between three different quarterbacks. They

976
00:42:57,840 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 2: have no clue who's going to start. And then at

977
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 2: the same time we met James Madison. You know, a

978
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: team that would be overlooked in the past could come

979
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: up and scare I think Eastern Carolina and other teams

980
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 2: like that, but now you know they're only i mean

981
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 2: six points against West Virginia. So I have to, you know,

982
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: get props to the bookmakers because they've made these lines,

983
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: you know, spot on from what all the projections that

984
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: I've seen, so the ones that I've keyed in on

985
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 2: as Kansas and Indiana State. Indiana State is a team

986
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 2: that is playing with a chip on its shoulder this year.

987
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 2: They were OHO in eleven two years ago, got to

988
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,240
Speaker 2: seven and four and just missed making the FCS playoffs.

989
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 2: So if you don't know how the FCS playoff works,

990
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 2: there's a whole selection and all that, so you can

991
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 2: you can look it up. But they were not selected.

992
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 2: They have a chip on their shoulder. They're still little

993
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 2: bit pissed off about that. They have a preseason rank

994
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 2: in the FCS top twenty five of sixteenth. They have

995
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 2: everything on their offense back. They are going to be

996
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 2: able to get the ball down the field with no problems.

997
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 2: They're one of the best in the FCS. We'll see,

998
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 2: you know how that goes as far as the Eastern

999
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 2: Washington's and the and the North Dakota states of the world.

1000
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 2: But you know, they had a terrible rush d which

1001
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: was their their achilles heel last year. And I'm not

1002
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,399
Speaker 2: sure Kansas can expose that because this is the game

1003
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 2: that Puka Williams is going to miss. This is the

1004
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 2: game that he suspended for probably should have been suspended

1005
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 2: for more, but he's leased out for this one, So

1006
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 2: maybe they can't expose what Indiana State's you know, biggest

1007
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 2: problem is on defense. So you know, both Malloy and Miles,

1008
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 2: the two head coaches for this game, they were in

1009
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: Michigan in nineteen ninety. They actually know each other. I

1010
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: believe Malloy was a linebacker at Michigan at the same

1011
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 2: time Les Miles was an assistant coach. I think there's

1012
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 2: a lot going on here. That spread is small, it's six,

1013
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 2: but I'm going to take the points and I'm going

1014
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 2: to take Indiana State on the money line. I think

1015
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 2: the other one that we need to talk about is

1016
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 2: Eastern Washington and Washington. So Eastern Washington is you know,

1017
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 2: they lost the FCS championship last year, in case you

1018
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 2: didn't know, they can't put up points in a second

1019
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 2: great quarterback. They had three different quarterbacks last year with

1020
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: some injuries, but the one who finished it up is

1021
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 2: going to be the one who's starting this game. Actually,

1022
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: one of their injured quarterbacks was Gage Gebrud, who's not

1023
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 2: going to be playing at Washington State. So Eastern Washington

1024
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 2: can throw up a whole bunch, you know. Sagern makes

1025
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 2: this game at twenty seven. I think that's the reason

1026
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,479
Speaker 2: I haven't played it yet on the Action app is because,

1027
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 2: like I said, they, you know, the bookmakers did a

1028
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: pretty good job setting this at twenty one. So I'm

1029
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: still waiting for a little bit of steam to come

1030
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: in before I jump on Eastern Washington. But Jake Hayner

1031
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 2: has left Washington. I mean he lost the starting job

1032
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: to Jacob Easton, And if you read all the reports

1033
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 2: up there at Washington. Easton only won the job because

1034
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 2: of his blue chip talent. They said it was neck

1035
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 2: and neck. Then neither of them had separated themselves from

1036
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,439
Speaker 2: each other. And because Jacob Eason had the pedigree coming

1037
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: into college football, that's the reason that he got the

1038
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 2: starting position. So Jake Hayner has left. That's one less Jake.

1039
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: For those of you counting on this podcast, who is it?

1040
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: It's Jake from State Farm. Eastan's now backed up by

1041
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 2: redshirt freshman Jacob Sermon, excuse me, Jake's on this. But

1042
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 2: you know, Eastern Washington is fourth in the FCS poll.

1043
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 2: They lost in the national championship last year. They're gonna

1044
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 2: be able to put up points in a half second.

1045
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 2: Washington's defensive line was one hundred and seventh and sack right.

1046
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be able to get any pressure on

1047
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 2: the Eastern Washington quarterback. Eastern Washington has three of their

1048
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 2: top four tacklers. Back Washington has cal on deck. So

1049
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 2: if we're talking about look ahead or look away, you

1050
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 2: know they have cal on deck next week. And Peterson

1051
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: mentioned that Eastern Washington always comes to Seattle and they

1052
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 2: always play the really tough and gives a max effort

1053
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 2: and have have. You know, might try to pull a

1054
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 2: surprise here, But I'm gonna wait on the number to steam.

1055
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: So if you're looking at it twenty one, I'm gonna

1056
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 2: look at it to steam. Once it does, I'll be

1057
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 2: on EWU.

1058
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 5: Before we go three.

1059
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 3: And now this wouldn't be an official podcast unless we

1060
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 3: talk Arkansas football. For those unfamiliar, that's Arkansas is Collins

1061
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: alma mater, My alma mater.

1062
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 5: George Washington doesn't have a football team. So yeah, it's

1063
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:36,879
Speaker 5: time for you to lie.

1064
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: I guess.

1065
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 5: Me all right.

1066
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: So Colin, you already lied to us about saying you

1067
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 3: won't bet Louisiana Tech money line, but we all know

1068
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: that you will. So Arkansas is favored by four touchdowns,

1069
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 3: maybe twenty eight and a half. It's Portland State. Portland

1070
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: State is dreadful. I want no part of this game.

1071
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 5: But lie to me. Are you betting this or not?

1072
00:46:59,760 --> 00:46:59,800
Speaker 2: What?

1073
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 5: Who are you saying? We know it's not gonna be true.

1074
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 2: I can't bet this game twenty eight and a half.

1075
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: I can't even make a point sp I can't make

1076
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 2: a point spread on Portland State. This team is the trash.

1077
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: The Vikings are trash of the FCS. Arkansas is the

1078
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 2: trash of the FBS twenty eight and a half. I

1079
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: wouldn't even know what to do with this game. We're

1080
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 2: gonna play, I don't know, four or five quarterbacks. I'm

1081
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 2: not gonna tweet about this game. I'm not gonna have

1082
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:22,839
Speaker 2: money on this game. I'm just gonna ignore it. Come

1083
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 2: back next week and maybe talk about the Razorbacks.

1084
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 3: All right, so you got you can expect a play

1085
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 3: on probably Portland State to come across the action app

1086
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 3: on Saturday morning. Maybe we poortly'sta can pull off the

1087
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:35,879
Speaker 3: stunner and help us with the Arkansas wind turble under.

1088
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 3: But let's close it out here with three.

1089
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 5: And now.

1090
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 6: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1091
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 5: We'll start on first down.

1092
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 3: And for those looking for action tonight that can't wait

1093
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: till tomorrow, we'll talk about our favorite Friday night bet.

1094
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna, you know, have a right up on

1095
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: Rice check it out. I'm basically fading the Service academies,

1096
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 3: and they're all big favorites this weekend. I love feeding

1097
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 3: the Service academies are their big favorites. And the reason

1098
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 3: is is they run the option, they bleed the clock,

1099
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 3: they limit possessions. It's hard to cover big numbers, regardless

1100
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 3: if they're favored or not. They're great at underdogs and

1101
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: they're terrible as favorites. Since two thousand and five, the

1102
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 3: three Service academies one hundred and twenty seven, one hundred

1103
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,959
Speaker 3: and ten and six against the spread, it's about fifty

1104
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 3: three and a half percent is underdogs one O six one,

1105
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 3: forty one and five. As a favorite, that's about forty

1106
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,360
Speaker 3: two point nine percent, and as a double digit favorite

1107
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 3: forty eight seventy one and two about forty percent against

1108
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,319
Speaker 3: the spread. Rice is a snail. They go as slow

1109
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 3: as anybody, and Army's gonna running their triple option. Rice

1110
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 3: should be better this year they were so young. Check

1111
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 3: on my right up. I think Rice can keep this

1112
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 3: within three touchdowns. Although it's going to be scary when

1113
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 3: Army's going for it on fourth downs and Army was

1114
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 3: the number one team on third downs last year in

1115
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,520
Speaker 3: the nation, Rice was dead last, so it's scary. There's

1116
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 3: gonna be some moments where it's fourth and goal and

1117
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 3: Army's going for it. But I think Rice stays within

1118
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: twenty one what's your favorite bet on Friday Night?

1119
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that one. I'm going to go with you, Mass.

1120
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 2: It's a game of the week here. I make the

1121
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 2: game thirteen and a half. Rutgers being favored by anybody,

1122
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 2: anybody over two touchdowns is kind of a joke. But

1123
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:13,399
Speaker 2: you Mass, there's actually an advantage here for U Mass.

1124
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 2: I know it's a new coach. I know we've lost

1125
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: these two great quarterbacks that we loved up at U

1126
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 2: Mass and Andy is Abel, who's now in the NFL.

1127
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 2: We've lost all this firepower on the offensive side of

1128
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 2: the ball. But I think the one thing that people

1129
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 2: aren't paying attention to is that Walt Bell, their new

1130
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 2: head coach, was an offensive coordinator at Maryland at the

1131
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 2: same time the defensive coordinator was Andy Booe. Andy Boo

1132
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: is now the defensive coordinator at Rutgers. So the scheme

1133
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: that Andy Boo is gonna run, Walt Bell is very

1134
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 2: familiar with it. The two know each other very well.

1135
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 2: I think that plays into the hands of the team

1136
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 2: that's you know, the market is at sixteen when it

1137
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 2: should actually be about thirteen. U Mass is the play gross.

1138
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 3: All right, So let's move on to second down here

1139
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 3: and talk Sunday and Monday night college football, which is

1140
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 3: what we we have this week with Houston Oklahoma Okoma

1141
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: favored by twenty three and a half ish on Sunday

1142
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 3: and Notre Dame Louisville Notre Dame eighteen eighteen and a

1143
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 3: half point favorites on Monday. I am looking at Louisville,

1144
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 3: who I think is going to be undervalued earlier in

1145
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 3: the year. It's all about effort. Under their new coach,

1146
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 3: you know, who came from app State, They're going to

1147
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: get that effort that they didn't have last year. I

1148
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 3: think they find a way to cover this game. I

1149
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 3: want no part of Houston Oklahoma quickly. Are you betting

1150
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 3: either one of these games and give out one pick? Yeah?

1151
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 2: I think the game I'm going to bet is Houston Oklahoma.

1152
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 2: I do want an under. I'd like for it to

1153
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: come up back above eighty before I go under. My

1154
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 2: projected number on this is seventy two. It was said

1155
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: by Dana Holgerson that there Derek King may not be

1156
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: putting up as many designed runs as he had before.

1157
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 2: So I think that that, you know, is one thing

1158
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 2: where if they have an offense where they're kind of,

1159
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:52,800
Speaker 2: you know, pull the reins back on deerret king. That

1160
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 2: might not result in as many points Oklahoma, on the

1161
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 2: other hand, there may be a lot more plays from

1162
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,439
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts that are on the ground that burns clock.

1163
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 2: I do want the under here. By the way, my

1164
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,399
Speaker 2: favorite thing in the offseason was Alex Grinch being hired

1165
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 2: by OU. I wouldn't be completely surprised here if Oklahoma

1166
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: actually put up an extremely good effort on defense and

1167
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 2: kept Houston from scoring as much as people think. So

1168
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 2: the other game, Notre Dame Louisville, I don't want anything

1169
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 2: to do with it. Nobody, nobody on this earth has

1170
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 2: a clue where Louisville is. They'd had one of the

1171
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 2: biggest power rating drops from last year from all that

1172
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 2: crap with Bobby Petrino. The players gave up. We couldn't

1173
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: tell where they were. Each week was just a complete mystery.

1174
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:33,839
Speaker 2: Would show up and even as far as you set

1175
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: the Louisville line, they would still find a way to

1176
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 2: get beat against the spread. So absolutely we have no

1177
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 2: clue where Louisville is. So I don't know how you

1178
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,759
Speaker 2: could actually set a number on the Notre Dame game,

1179
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 2: So that one is a watch and learn.

1180
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 3: All right, So let's close out here with third down

1181
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 3: and our money line underdog parlay.

1182
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1183
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1184
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 5: For those not familiar, we each give a money on underdog.

1185
00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 5: Wever right up for it.

1186
00:51:58,200 --> 00:51:58,359
Speaker 2: Two.

1187
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,919
Speaker 3: Look, I didn't find too many on the car worth taking.

1188
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 3: I think Oregon Auburn is a coin flip game. I'm

1189
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 3: gonna trust the veteran quarterback. I'm going with Oregon. Where

1190
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 3: are you rolling here?

1191
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1192
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 5: I didn't want to.

1193
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: The only one I can find is Boston College. That

1194
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: should be a pickup game. It's floated up way too

1195
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,839
Speaker 2: high at four and five. Boston College won this game

1196
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:16,880
Speaker 2: last year, and they're gonna be able to run on

1197
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 2: the Virginia Tech defense like they did last year. So

1198
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 2: be say for me.

1199
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 5: There you go.

1200
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 3: You know two games that we think are coin more

1201
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 3: coin flips in the lines. We're taking value that the

1202
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 3: part of money that probably plays about six to one.

1203
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 5: Hopefully that can cash.

1204
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 3: But we'll be tracking them and writing them up every

1205
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 3: week on the Action app Inaction network dot com. Thanks

1206
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 3: Colin for joining me. Thanks to everyone for listening. Make

1207
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 3: sure you keep the voicemail numbers, save it on your phone,

1208
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 3: write it down, write it on your forehead five seven

1209
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 3: five six five five zero six six'. Four we'll be

1210
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 3: back On monday with a recap of the. Weekend the

1211
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 3: best voicemails of the. Weekend make sure you, rate, review

1212
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:57,720
Speaker 3: you know the, deal spread the. Word thanks for, listening

1213
00:52:58,040 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 3: good luck this weekend.

1214
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 5: Tweers he's.

1215
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: Out