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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.

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Speaker 1: We have an amazing everybody today.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, we do Trump making new threats against the Iranians

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Speaker 2: as they mock him relentlessly. A lot to dig into there.

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Speaker 2: We've also got a new Barock revied report about what

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Speaker 2: the next steps in the war may be, so we'll

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Speaker 2: dissect that. New polls on just how unpopular the war is,

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Speaker 2: and those numbers are only going down along with Trump's

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Speaker 2: approval rating, which is truly hitting new lows. Oil markets

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Speaker 2: are extremely confusing at this point. The market seemed to

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Speaker 2: be perhaps irrationally expecting that the war is going to

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Speaker 2: end and things are just going to go back to normal.

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Speaker 2: That does not seem to be the case to us

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Speaker 2: Layman here, but we'll dig into what we can tell.

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Speaker 2: Professor Robert Pape is going to join us again. Always

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Speaker 2: an honor to get to speak with him and hear

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Speaker 2: his thoughts on where we are and where we are going.

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Speaker 2: And we're also going to include in this show an

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Speaker 2: interview that Ryan did when he was down in Cuba

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Speaker 2: with the top official there who offered some, you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty significant accommodations to the United States of America, the

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Speaker 2: kind of deal that you would think that Trump would

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Speaker 2: be eager to take. Unfortunately, doesn't look like he has

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Speaker 2: headed in that direction, but we will will share that

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Speaker 2: with you today. Very significant reporting from Ryan.

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Speaker 3: That's right perhaps to Ryan went on the ground already

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Speaker 3: caused a lot of discourse here in the United States

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Speaker 3: debating newsma's hosts.

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Speaker 2: Could you so good as for you know, Ryan, I

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Speaker 2: don't see him give that exercise. That was the most

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Speaker 2: exercise I think I've ever seen Ryan in that Newsmax interview.

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Speaker 2: That was amazing.

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Speaker 1: You got to give you got to give the man.

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Speaker 3: Thank you everybody who's been subscribing to the show Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Also, we are at one point nine to

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Speaker 3: six now YouTube, one point nine six million YouTube subscribers.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to two million. Let's just get to two million.

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Speaker 3: Then we can all just relax. We can sail off

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Speaker 3: into the sunset. I really never thought we would hit

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Speaker 3: two million, I mean theoretically, but I was like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know, we'll get there.

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Speaker 1: Eventually.

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Speaker 3: We hit one, that's all you need. But we're so

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Speaker 3: tantalizingly close. Okay, so let's go ahead. Hit the subscribe

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Speaker 3: button if you will, and if you listen to the podcast,

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Speaker 3: please share an episode with a friend. We've had titanic

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Speaker 3: growth on our podcast, probably the most in our at

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Speaker 3: least in the last several years.

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Speaker 1: So seriously, thank you to all of you.

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Speaker 2: There's most in our history.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, it probably I'd have to check the Lifetime charts,

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Speaker 3: but the growth has been unbelievable over the last month,

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Speaker 3: which means a lot of you are sharing. It is

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Speaker 3: the hardest platform actually to grow, So seriously, if you,

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Speaker 3: if one of your relatives or a friend or something

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Speaker 3: like that is like, hey, what's going on with you, Ron,

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Speaker 3: please just send them one of your favorite episodes on

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Speaker 3: the subject so they can be informed as well.

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Speaker 1: With that, let's go ahead and art with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so he made some new comments last night about

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Speaker 2: these alleged negotiations which he swears is happening and the

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Speaker 2: irradiance swear are not happening. Let's take a listen to that.

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Speaker 4: We settled eight wars, people, so to forget, and we're

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Speaker 4: winning another one. I tell you, we're winning so big.

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Speaker 4: Nobody has ever seen anything like we're doing in the

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Speaker 4: Middle East with Iran, and they are negotiating, by the way,

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Speaker 4: and they want to make a deal so badly, but

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Speaker 4: they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be

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Speaker 4: killed by their own people. They're also afraid they'll be

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Speaker 4: killed by US. There's never been ahead of a country

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Speaker 4: that wanted that job less than being the head of Iran.

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Speaker 2: So, as best we can tell, these negotiations are a fantasy.

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Speaker 2: Not that things have not been sent from the US

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Speaker 2: two around via intermediaries, but in terms of any either

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Speaker 2: direct or indirect negotiations, you know, the reporting from Skayhill

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Speaker 2: and others indicates that is simply not the case in

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Speaker 2: the iraniance have been quite adamant that that is not

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Speaker 2: the case. Let me play another p here from Trump,

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Speaker 2: which I thought was very revealing in a way that he,

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Speaker 2: you know, sort of uniquely can be, where he talks

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Speaker 2: about how well he doesn't want to call it a

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Speaker 2: war because that would mean he needs to get approval

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Speaker 2: from Congress. Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 4: But they're doing it for two reasons. Number one is

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Speaker 4: they want to deflect from all of the tremendous success

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Speaker 4: that we're having in this military operation. I won't use

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Speaker 4: the word war because they say, if you used the

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Speaker 4: word war, that's maybe not a good thing to do.

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Speaker 4: They don't like the word war because you're supposed to

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Speaker 4: get approval, So I'll use the word military operation, which

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Speaker 4: is really what it is. It's called a military decimation.

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Speaker 4: But they don't like the good publicity. They don't like

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Speaker 4: to see us succeed. They want to see our country fail.

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Speaker 2: And I know it seems quaint at this point, but

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Speaker 2: just all but acknowledging Zager how he's flagrantly violating the Constitution.

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Speaker 2: Knows damn well he's supposed to get approval from Congress.

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Speaker 2: Congress on the other hand, you know, equally pathetic. There

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Speaker 2: is a push for War Powers Resolution another vote in

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Speaker 2: the House, and Democratic leaders, because it looks like it

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Speaker 2: may actually succeed, they are trying to push that back

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Speaker 2: a month. I don't know why the war is happening now,

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Speaker 2: like you need to take this vote right now, but

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Speaker 2: you know they low key support ideologically the war. They

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Speaker 2: also think that it is damaging for Trump, so they

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Speaker 2: also low key wanted to continue to go on. It

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Speaker 2: is deeply cynical and disgusting, but that's.

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Speaker 1: Where we see exactly. Thank you.

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Speaker 3: Let me give a huge shout out to all of

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Speaker 3: the war powers activists who are working on this behind

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Speaker 3: the scenes, to people like Thomas Massey, to Rocana and

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Speaker 3: many of the other heroes in the House who are

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Speaker 3: actually trying to do this. Everybody else is either looking

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Speaker 3: at through a political lens or some you know, cowardly. Really,

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Speaker 3: the Senate Republicans just yesterday moved to make sure that

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Speaker 3: a War Powers Act, a war Power's vote would not

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Speaker 3: come before Congress. And this is so important for our

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Speaker 3: democratic process because it's what shows the ability for the

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Speaker 3: populace to buy and if we're going to talk later

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Speaker 3: about military recruitment and a draft. I mean, look, I

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Speaker 3: don't think any of that is going to happen, but

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Speaker 3: this is the path that we are now on, and

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Speaker 3: you cannot have I mean, look, even in Vietnam we

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Speaker 3: had the sham Gulf of Talkkin resolution. Even during Iraq

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Speaker 3: we had the actual vote, there was a debate, people

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Speaker 3: had to live and die on that. But they do

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Speaker 3: not want to be held accountable for their actions now

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Speaker 3: so far. And it's really important that we all just

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Speaker 3: like put a pin in this for our democratic process,

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Speaker 3: especially as we move to some potential ground invasion. To

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Speaker 3: have boots on the ground in a foreign country with

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Speaker 3: no authorization is the absolute height of cowardice from every

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Speaker 3: single member of the United States Congress.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's absolutely right. And if nothing else, like, I

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Speaker 2: don't think any of us really expect that even a

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Speaker 2: vote in favor War Powers resolution end ultimately against the war,

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Speaker 2: that that would constrain this administration. I don't think we're

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Speaker 2: naive enough. It would create some problems for them, as

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Speaker 2: I think it's sort of like an It would create

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Speaker 2: problems acknowledgement of that from Trump here, But just to

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Speaker 2: have everyone on the record is extremely important because it

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Speaker 2: will be hard to hold people accountable after the fact

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Speaker 2: because they'll you know, oh, well I did express my concerns, etc. Etc. No,

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Speaker 2: what did you do at the moment? How did you vote?

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Speaker 2: Where were you on these issues? And so you know,

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Speaker 2: it's just extremely disgusting the way that Congress continues to

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Speaker 2: seed all of their power to the White House. Just

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Speaker 2: go and be a podcast or if you don't want

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Speaker 2: to have like actual power in the political arena. In

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Speaker 2: any case, we've got let's put a too b up

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Speaker 2: on the screen new True Social here from Trump. He says,

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Speaker 2: the Iranian negotiators are very different and strange and scare quotes.

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Speaker 2: For some reason, they are begging us to make a

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Speaker 2: deal again with the scare quotes, which they should be

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Speaker 2: doing since they have been militarily obliterated. Doesn't seem like

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Speaker 2: it anyway, with zero chance of a comeback, also doesn't

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Speaker 2: seem like it. And yet they publicly state that they

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Speaker 2: are only looking at our proposal wrong. They better get

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Speaker 2: serious soon before it is too late, because once that happens,

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Speaker 2: there is no turning back and it won't be pretty.

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Speaker 2: President DJT. You know, the Iranians seemed I mean understandably,

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Speaker 2: like just thinking about this rattling from their perspective. Number one,

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Speaker 2: the terms that the supposed fifteen points that were offered

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Speaker 2: from the Trump administration were completely unserious. You know, the

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Speaker 2: Iranians view, and I think rightfully so, view themselves as

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Speaker 2: winning this war at this point. You know, the US

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Speaker 2: has failed to accomplish any of the stated strategic objectives.

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Speaker 2: The Iranians are, you know, have escalation dominance here. They've

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Speaker 2: been able to match what the US and Israel are doing,

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Speaker 2: not in terms of total damage, but in terms of Okay,

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Speaker 2: you hit our gas field, We're going to hit you back.

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Speaker 2: We're going to make you pay. We're in exact pain

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Speaker 2: in the global economy. Uh. There's a new report we'll

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Speaker 2: get to in a moment here from the Washington Post.

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Speaker 2: You know, all of our troops in the region are

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Speaker 2: basically working remotely now because the all of the bases

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Speaker 2: are effectively unusable because of the damage that has been

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Speaker 2: inflicted and you know, and also dangerous. So that is

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is extraordinary. That is different from anything

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Speaker 2: we've seen before. It's you know, we make these comparisons

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Speaker 2: to Vietnam, and obviously the parallels are not exact, but

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Speaker 2: you know this is the ability to project power from

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Speaker 2: the Iranians is unlike any adversary we've faced in a

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Speaker 2: very long time.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's just a proof of twenty first century warfare

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Speaker 3: we have. There's every big war, there are signs of

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Speaker 3: where things could have been. So like the script for

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Speaker 3: the First World War, the trench warfare was written in

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Speaker 3: the Siege of Petersburg at the end of the Civil Wars,

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Speaker 3: just the Europeans thought that they were better than us

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Speaker 3: and they would be able to fight differently.

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Speaker 1: They were totally wrong.

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Speaker 3: The script for the Second World War there are multiple

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Speaker 3: skirmishes and other I mean even before the US entrance,

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Speaker 3: you could see how things were working with Poland, with

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Speaker 3: the Iraq War, Vietnam obviously, even with Vietnam. It was

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Speaker 3: not our Vietnam, but France's Vietnam. We just decided to

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Speaker 3: redo that. And for this one, the proof has been

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Speaker 3: there for four years now in Russia and Ukraine is

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Speaker 3: that it doesn't matter. Like you can have all of

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Speaker 3: this fancy stuff, but at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: these cheap lit drones have the ability to destroy infrastructure,

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Speaker 3: to kill troops. Suicide drones and the asymmetry of a

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Speaker 3: global powerhouse like Russia, which has all these awesome tanks

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Speaker 3: and all that, just gets completely mired in the mud

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Speaker 3: and held up by the Ukrainians with not you know,

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Speaker 3: all that expensive military technology. Now I'm not saying they're

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Speaker 3: gonna win, but you can hold off for a long time.

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Speaker 3: It's the asymmetry in the cost. And the perfect example

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Speaker 3: of that is suicide drones taking out billions of dollars

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Speaker 3: worth of natural gas infrastructure, while a multi billion dollar

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Speaker 3: carrier gets taken out by a laundry fire or whatever

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Speaker 3: and has to sail to port and is out of

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Speaker 3: commission now for two years. So you know, at every turn,

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Speaker 3: you see very quickly that anyone paying attention to warfare.

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Speaker 3: And you know, for literally for the last four years,

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Speaker 3: and even before that in Syria we saw that for

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Speaker 3: you know, with the and even you know the Isis war,

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Speaker 3: with the body cams and the drones and all that,

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Speaker 3: like everything was there for the last fifteen years.

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Speaker 2: A seventh as well, October sevenths doesn't have anything like

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Speaker 2: the capabilities of Aron, and you still couldn't defeat them,

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Speaker 2: and they were able to penetrate into Israel and create

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Speaker 2: havoc and you know, kill all kinds of both civilians

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Speaker 2: and IDF and you know, again using just some of

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Speaker 2: this little drone technology to take out the cameras. So

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Speaker 2: you know, you're you're full if you think this is

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Speaker 2: going to be easy. And the Iranians of course, willing

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Speaker 2: to take on much more pain and damage because for

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Speaker 2: them this is ex essential. For us, we don't even

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Speaker 2: want to be there. Let's go and play a little

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Speaker 2: bit of Caroline Levitt here, because clearly the memo went

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Speaker 2: out yesterday. Okay, the Iranians are ruthlessly mocking these you know,

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Speaker 2: the supposed negotiation from Trump. I mean, all these videos

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Speaker 2: that they're putting out, the rhetoric that they're using. I'm

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Speaker 2: really just like trolling and mocking the White House. And

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Speaker 2: so they've rebuffed these fake negotiations. And so now the

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Speaker 2: move has shifted from Trump and from Caroline Levitt and

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Speaker 2: others too. Okay, now we're going to we're going to

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Speaker 2: threaten you. We're going to threaten to punish you for

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Speaker 2: not acceding to our demands. Here, let's go and take

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Speaker 2: a listen to Caroline Levet yesterday at the White House.

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Speaker 5: But the President's preference is always peace. There does not

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Speaker 5: need to be any more death and destruction. But if

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Speaker 5: Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,

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Speaker 5: if they fail to understand that they have been defeated

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Speaker 5: militarily and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure

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Speaker 5: they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before.

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Speaker 5: President Trump does not bluff, and he is prepared to

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Speaker 5: unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate.

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Speaker 2: Again, prepared to unleash hell. Sager what you make of

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Speaker 2: the White House tactics here, because the Iranians feel that

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Speaker 2: these negotiations, again the demands are faked, but also they

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Speaker 2: feel it could be like an intelligence gathering op which

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Speaker 2: they're right to figure out where their leadership is so

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Speaker 2: they can murder them, which of course they've done many

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Speaker 2: times in the past. They're probably correct about that. It

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Speaker 2: may also be a stalling tactic. It's also obviously designed

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Speaker 2: to calm the markets, which you know Trump has a

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Speaker 2: problem with, not only with the oil prices, but also

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Speaker 2: with the bond yields, maybe even more of a significant issue.

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Speaker 2: So that seems to be the sort of desperate strategy

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Speaker 2: here being employed by the White.

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Speaker 3: House absolutely so what you're seeing is a lot of

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Speaker 3: wish casting. And this is why we talked earlier and

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Speaker 3: Trump actually reminds me a lot of LBJ. I think

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Speaker 3: we're going to talk a lot about this with Professor

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Speaker 3: Pape in that LBJ was the ultimate deal maker, the

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Speaker 3: ultimate consonant Washington politician. His problem always is he would

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Speaker 3: apply that deal making domestic political skill to war with

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Speaker 3: Ho Chi Minh, who fundamentally was an anti colonialist communist,

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Speaker 3: who was like, I will basically never make a deal

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Speaker 3: with you. I have the ultimate and total objective of

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Speaker 3: keeping my country first safe, and second of the reunification

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Speaker 3: Northern South and taking over. There was no deal really

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Speaker 3: to be made. There was only just we have to

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Speaker 3: get out. And that's very difficult for these type of

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Speaker 3: people to accept. You would say over and over again,

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to be the first son of a

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Speaker 3: bitch to lose on a war like the first American president.

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Speaker 1: And you can watch how well.

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Speaker 3: Trump is trying to do what he did in politics

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Speaker 3: too great, obviously for victory for himself. He's trying to

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Speaker 3: shape the conversation. He's making sure and pushing things. He's like,

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Speaker 3: they want to negotiate so bad, but I'm not gonna

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Speaker 3: let them. That works maybe when you're dealing with Chuck

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Speaker 3: Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. It works when you're dealing with

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Speaker 3: Ted Kruz in the twenty sixteen primary, but doesn't work

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Speaker 3: whenever you're dealing with an enemy who you basically have

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Speaker 3: given no choice. He declared unconditional surrender. You've killed the Ayatola,

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Speaker 3: You've made it a war of total survival on their part,

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Speaker 3: and you've actually, you know, so far, have ballooned their

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Speaker 3: ego because the Iranians are right now in the best

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Speaker 3: pole position that they could be. But the biggest mistake

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Speaker 3: that Trump has made is that he has made it

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Speaker 3: so that the ground that could be laid for any

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Speaker 3: negotiation is gone. They can never actually trust our word.

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Speaker 3: They can't trust wit cough. They've been bombed twice. And

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Speaker 3: this is why when that happened, I remember thinking, I go,

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Speaker 3: how are we ever going to be able to make

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Speaker 3: a deal in the future with Russia, with Ukraine, with China,

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Speaker 3: with anyone if you're going to bomb somebody other than

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Speaker 3: the cover of diploma. And so you can see the

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Speaker 3: consequences of his actions, and he's trying to work in

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Speaker 3: a vacuum and not in the context now fully of

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Speaker 3: how he has behaved in his administration. Yeah, that's the

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Speaker 3: prison that he has locked himself into. It locked all

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Speaker 3: of us into. That's the tragedy of it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And part of what's different from Vietnam is you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean it destroyed obviously Lbj's presidency. But the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, they could just walk away. You can't

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Speaker 2: just walk away here. I mean, it will destroy Trump.

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Speaker 2: I think Trump's presidency will be destroyed either way at

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Speaker 2: this point. But you know, the Iranians have projected like

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Speaker 2: now we say when this ends, so you may want

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Speaker 2: to leave, but it is Israel going to stop firing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is they want to make this the

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Speaker 2: last time that they have to deal with the US

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Speaker 2: and Israel coming in and bombing them. And that is

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Speaker 2: what they are trying to achieve. That's what they feel

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Speaker 2: like they can achieve. But I don't believe that they

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Speaker 2: think that they're there yet. And to your point about

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Speaker 2: the you know, the arrogance and the hubris of doing

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Speaker 2: these you know, negotiation ruses and then murdering the people involved.

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Speaker 2: Let's say the Iranians did want to talk to the US.

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Speaker 2: Let's say they wanted to have some sort of a

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Speaker 2: channel of communication just to keep the lines open, See

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Speaker 2: what was possible, et cetera. How would you do that?

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Speaker 2: They certainly aren't going to meet anyone in person and

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Speaker 2: give up their location. They certainly don't want to communicate

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Speaker 2: electronically with them, because the cell phone can be tracked,

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Speaker 2: the communication, we track whatever. Literally, how are you going

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Speaker 2: to communicate? I mean, so the US has basically made

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Speaker 2: it impossible even to have those negotiations if the Iranians

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Speaker 2: want to. Now, what we know right now is, you know,

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Speaker 2: they're passing the US is passing things through Pakistan, They're

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Speaker 2: path through Turkey, you know, through Egypt, and Iran is

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Speaker 2: also in communication with them. But if you were going

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Speaker 2: to have any sort of direct exchange, it's effectively impossible

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Speaker 2: at this point. You've also got let's get ahead to

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Speaker 2: a five. You've also got this, you know, continuing victory narrative,

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Speaker 2: which is increasingly just completely impopus plausible, and American people

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Speaker 2: are not buying it one bit. The vast majority of

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Speaker 2: Americans think the war is going really badly or somewhat

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Speaker 2: badly in any case, This is Caroline Levitt talking about

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Speaker 2: how we're very close to meeting the objectives of Operation

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Speaker 2: Epstein Fury. Let's take a listen to that.

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Speaker 5: We are very close to meeting the core objectives of

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Speaker 5: Operation Epic Fury, and this military mission continues unabated from

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Speaker 5: the outset. President Trump and the Department of War estimated

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Speaker 5: it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve

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Speaker 5: this critical mission. Twenty five days in the greatest military

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Speaker 5: the world has ever known, is a head of schedule

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Speaker 5: and performing exceptionally.

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Speaker 3: This is very Vietnam esque. This is exactly what they

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Speaker 3: said before the tet offensive. They were like, oh, well

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Speaker 3: we've Operation Rolling Thunder, but you know, people really should

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Speaker 3: go and study Rolling Thunder. Rolling Thunder had the exact

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Speaker 3: same escalation logic. We're going to go in, we're going

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Speaker 3: to bomb, we have men. Every time that they bat,

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Speaker 3: don't back down. We're going to do a little bit more,

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Speaker 3: and then we're going to do a little bit more,

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Speaker 3: and then we're going to do a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: And the entire time they're telling the American public, Hey,

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Speaker 3: what we've done. We've degraded ten thousand hectakers or whatever.

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Speaker 1: We've taken a ninety million Vietcong.

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Speaker 3: I'm exaggerating obviously, but and then what happened, and then

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Speaker 3: what happened is exactly very similar circumstance to what we

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Speaker 3: see right now. Where US troops are working remotely. You

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Speaker 3: have multiple US bases which are declared uninhabitable. You have

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Speaker 3: an aircraft carrier which has to leave the region. We're

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Speaker 3: running dramatically low on interceptors. The military logic of it

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Speaker 3: all starts to be foreseen, and then you have a

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Speaker 3: big event which shows for the final moment you're like,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, everything they told us is a total lie. Remember,

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Speaker 3: the vast majority of people are still not paying attention

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Speaker 3: to this war.

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Speaker 1: They're mostly just going on with their lives.

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Speaker 3: To the extent that they have paid any attention whatsoever,

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Speaker 3: probably gas prices, if I had to guess, that's basically it.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're mostly going about their lives. They know

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Speaker 3: something is kind of happening, but it's not yet. They're

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Speaker 3: they're hearing some of the White House stuff and they're like,

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Speaker 3: has sounds ridiculous, but whatever, just moving on. But the

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Speaker 3: big one when it comes, that's what you want to

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Speaker 3: avoid at all costs because that is those Emperor have

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Speaker 3: no close or even empire has no close moments. You

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Speaker 3: never come back from you absolutely never come back for it.

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Speaker 3: And we're ready, we're inching towards it.

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Speaker 2: We're already in a place where things will never be

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Speaker 2: quite the same. That's right, We're all right. However this ends,

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Speaker 2: things will not be the same on the other side

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Speaker 2: of it. Let's go and put Iran's five conditions that

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Speaker 2: they've been pretty consistently holding out here about what they

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Speaker 2: would need in order to end the war, so they say.

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Speaker 2: Tehran is therefore characterized the latest overture, which was delivered

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Speaker 2: by a friendly regional intermediary as a ploy to heighten

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Speaker 2: tentions and as responded negatively, The official outline five specific

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Speaker 2: conditions under which Iron would agree to end the war.

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Speaker 2: They include number one, a complete halt to aggression and

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Speaker 2: assassinations by the enemy. Number two, the establishment of concrete

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Speaker 2: mechanisms to ensure the war is not reimposed on the

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Speaker 2: Islamic Republic. Number three guaranteed and clearly defined payment of

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Speaker 2: war damages and reparations. Number four the conclusion of the

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Speaker 2: war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved

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Speaker 2: throughout the region, and just to pause on that when

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Speaker 2: there's reporting that they want to make sure Lebanon is

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Speaker 2: included in any sort of you know, war ending deal

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Speaker 2: here and Hesbalah is included in that. So they want

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Speaker 2: to make sure not only is the war ended here,

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Speaker 2: but also on the additional front that Israel's opened up

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Speaker 2: there international recognition and guarantees regarding Iran's sovereign right to

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Speaker 2: exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz. The official further

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Speaker 2: note of these stipulations are an addition to demands previously

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Speaker 2: presented by Tehran during the second round of negotiations in Geneva,

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Speaker 2: which took place just to days before the US and

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Speaker 2: Israel carried out a fresh round of aggression on February

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth. So they say they want everything to stop,

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Speaker 2: they want to make sure it can't restart in the future,

433
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 2: and they want reparations because they feel correctly they were attacked,

434
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: that it was they were illegally attacked. All kinds of

435
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 2: damage has been done to their country and they think

436
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,479
Speaker 2: that the US and Israel should pay them that for

437
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: what they have done to them. Now I ask you,

438
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 2: you know, in the Iranians minds. They feel they're winning.

439
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 2: You know, they feel they blocked the US from being

440
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 2: able to achieve any of their strategic objectives. They feel

441
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 2: they are you know, they're in control of the strait

442
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: of her moves. They get to say how big and

443
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 2: how quickly this war, you know, how much this expands,

444
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 2: how much pain the region and the US and the

445
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 2: globe ultimately are going to you know, going to feel.

446
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: And so they think it's entirely reasonable that they get

447
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 2: paid back reparations. Do you think that Trump and Israel

448
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: do you think they're anywhere near feeling like this is

449
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 2: you know, this is something we're going to accept. No Trump,

450
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: Trump has to save face here. He has to save

451
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,719
Speaker 2: face because if he, let's say, he accepted these conditions

452
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: and walked away, it is the end of his present.

453
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: I mean it is humiliating. Like already we're in a

454
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 2: situation where you know, they've Washington Post is saying they've

455
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: given up on regime change, they've given up on ending

456
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: the nuclear program. Now the war is to reopen the

457
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: straight of horror moves, which the war closed. So I

458
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: saw our no bertrand He's like, it's the war to

459
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 2: re opened the thing the war closed. Yes, that's how

460
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 2: much of a disaster this has already been to the US.

461
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 3: Our logic, though, this is how it always works, and

462
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 3: this is why the traders and the markets they're all like, oh, well,

463
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: Trump wants to end the war. You think that the

464
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,479
Speaker 3: Kaiser didn't want to end the war in nineteen fourteen,

465
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,360
Speaker 3: Like you think LBJ didn't want to end the war

466
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty six. You think that, you know, the

467
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 3: Abraham Lincoln didn't want the war to end in eighteen

468
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: sixty one.

469
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: Everybody wants to end the war. Yeah, it doesn't think

470
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 1: it'll end.

471
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 2: Speaking to this, this is what you're referring to as

472
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 2: Wall Street journal piece that's like, oh, let's put it

473
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 2: up there on this Trump wants to speedy end. He's

474
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: looking for an off ran. It's like, okay, good luck,

475
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 2: good luck, because this is what we've always warned about.

476
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 2: Once you're in, it's not so easy just to walk away.

477
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,239
Speaker 2: It's you don't get to just on board with it.

478
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: I mean they talk in this article about how he's

479
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 2: basically like boored with the war and wants to get

480
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: back to like I don't know, talking about his ballroom

481
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 2: or sicking ice agents on America. Whatever. I'm kind of

482
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 2: over this, and it's kind of a prom for the

483
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: mid terms. Okay, you may feel that way. How are

484
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: you going to get out of this? Because it doesn't

485
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 2: seem obvious to me at all, or a lot of

486
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 2: experts that I've been listening to, how you could even

487
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: end this thing at this point.

488
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: Yes, and that is why, that's actually why I just

489
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: feel really despondent, because it would take the most supreme

490
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 3: act of courage from now two separate individuals, not just one.

491
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: First is the Ayatola or whoever is running an Iran.

492
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: He would have to have the recognition this is probably

493
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 3: the best we're going to get. Let's drive it home

494
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: and let's actually do something with the Americans and have

495
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 3: a last and a final piece. However, and if I'm

496
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 3: being honest, if I was one of his advisers, I

497
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 3: would tell him not to do it, because if I'm

498
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,959
Speaker 3: looking purely from the lens of an Iranian who is

499
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 3: now fighting, we cannot trust these people. What actual confidence

500
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 3: can we have that they're going to restrain the Israelis?

501
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 3: And then second on Donald Trump, it would actually take

502
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 3: genuinely the act of supreme courage to restrain now all

503
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: of the Israeli action for forever, for now and forever,

504
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 3: to make sure that we're not going to let that happen,

505
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 3: and that we're actually going to take this massive political hit,

506
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 3: which we know that we are where it's better in

507
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: the long run to just say enough, we're not doing

508
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 3: this anymore. We're going to sign a deal. But all

509
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: of the bellicosity moving the troops. The easy decision from

510
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: Donald Trump's perspective right now is to do what every

511
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: wartime leader has always done. Escalate, to de escalate. We'll

512
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 3: break the back of the enemy, and then what we'll

513
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: do is make a deal on the other side.

514
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: For the Iranians, it's very similar.

515
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 3: They're like, well, we haven't even hit oil at two

516
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 3: hundred yet, we haven't made them feel the pain. We

517
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: need to feel the pain. Ultimately, this is a power mismatch.

518
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 3: And what it means though is that this, you know,

519
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 3: the actual power of the US Empire is going to

520
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 3: have to fully get involved ground troops. And even then,

521
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 3: remember we're only talking about a couple thousand ground troops

522
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 3: right now. This could be you know, tens of thousands,

523
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 3: hundreds of thousand.

524
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 1: That's how it works.

525
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: It starts with a few oh and then you know,

526
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 3: twenty guys get killed. What we have to avenge their death,

527
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: and now we're on. And this is why you don't

528
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: want to get into this situation in the first place.

529
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 3: And anybody who had a hand in this can never

530
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 3: be forgiven because what they've unleashed already do not only

531
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 3: the damage to our credibility diplomatically, our standing in the world.

532
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I remember how.

533
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 3: Many of these neocons used to talk about America's humiliation

534
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 3: after Afghanistan and how that encouraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

535
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: Let's say that that's true, which I don't even think

536
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: it's fully true, but let's say it's partially it had.

537
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: Some impact on it.

538
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 3: What do you think if you're China and Russia, any

539
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: of these countries looking at how the United States just

540
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 3: held up in a very limited ballistic missile exchange with Iran,

541
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 3: and think and then our own, you know, political capacity

542
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 3: to stand for a war of choice like this. What

543
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: are you going to take away from that? You're like, Wow,

544
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 3: this is much easier than we ever thought it would be.

545
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 3: This is why this is really really bad, and we

546
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 3: also see the escalation that continues.

547
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 1: Let's put a ten up here on the screen. Iran.

548
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 3: Just yesterday they struck a chemical complex in the Negev

549
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 3: Desert which is linked to white phosphorus production.

550
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: So sick missile program is there.

551
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 3: They're hitting targets in israel chemical complexes, is causing a

552
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 3: huge blast.

553
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: What does that mean? Why does that matter?

554
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: Because the interceptors are running low, they're able to take

555
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 3: out more critical infrastructure. And when you can take out

556
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: critical infrastructure, you can take out interceptors, you actually become

557
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 3: the great boogieman threat that the Israelis always said you were.

558
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 3: Now they really could be an existential threat to Israel.

559
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: So what does Israel do. They might have to use

560
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon. They don't have any forces. That's why,

561
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: like you know, everybody thinks you sound hysterical, but things

562
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 3: move very very quickly in war, and you can already

563
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: see the strategic logic from the Israeli perspective. That's why

564
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: they're opening, that's why they're expanding their borders, That's why

565
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: they want and are pushing the United States because now

566
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 3: this really is the boogeyman for the United states. We

567
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 3: have to save face, we need to save the global

568
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: oil market. We can't just sign a deal and then

569
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 3: from the Iranians, same thing, like they haven't exacted the

570
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 3: pain that they want because they want this to be

571
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 3: the last war, not just one war. And you know,

572
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 3: all this, all this language WI every history book you'll read,

573
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 3: you hear them all say the same thing.

574
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: This needs to be the war to end all wars.

575
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 3: This needs to be you know, if we find if

576
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 3: we just do this, then the enemy will capitulate. It

577
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: turns out, especially when you put people in a total

578
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: war situation, which is what Trump's threat is, it's only

579
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: going to drag on even longer and longer and longer.

580
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: And I'm just I do not see a way out

581
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 3: of this. None of these people have the courage to

582
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 3: do this needs to be done.

583
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: Israeli logic, which apparently the Trump administration Trump is bought

584
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: into completely. Is there just one bombing campaign away from

585
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: like perfect piece of super always one more bombing campaign,

586
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: one more round of assassination.

587
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: More square miles, more of territory, yeah outside.

588
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. And I mean they're already projecting they're going

589
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: to go to war with Turkey next after this, and

590
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: they've already picked their next target, like this is the

591
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 2: this is the logic that they operate under. And of

592
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: course there is no like, there is no final answer here.

593
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, You're going to have

594
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 2: to figure out some negotiated settlement, figure out how to

595
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: live with people so you're not constantly at war with them.

596
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: But that is the polar opposite of the Israeli approach

597
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 2: and certainly the net Yahoo approach. To your point about

598
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 2: the amount of damage that Iran continues to be able

599
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 2: to inflict, and I want you all to really take

600
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 2: in how much you were gas lit by this administration

601
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 2: and by the Western media about how, oh they've taken

602
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 2: on all of Iran's missile launchers and they're not going

603
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: to be able to do anything anymore. And oh, look

604
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 2: at how their missile launchers are going down, et cetera,

605
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 2: et cetera. Yeah, the number of missiles they're launching has

606
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: gone down, but those missiles are finding their targets far

607
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: more often because Iran, unlike us, they didn't underestimate us.

608
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 2: They took us seriously. We thought that, you know, we

609
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 2: Trump came into this like, oh, they're going to close

610
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 2: down the straight armers. I can't believe that they've been

611
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: planning for this for decades. They've expected this conflict and

612
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 2: planned for it so smartly. What did they do first?

613
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: They tried to blind us, you know, take out the

614
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: radar capabilities, exhaust the interceptors, and now they're at the

615
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 2: point where their missiles are finding their targets more frequently.

616
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 2: So put a eleven up on the screen. This is

617
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 2: the other way that you've been gas lit and lied to.

618
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 2: And a lot of the image in the region has

619
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: been actively covered up by this administration, with the collaboration

620
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: of these private satellite companies. By the way, but in

621
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 2: any case, this is Aaron Basani of Navara Media. By

622
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 2: the way, they do great work. You guys should check

623
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: them out. Many of the thirteen military bases in the

624
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 2: region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable. He says,

625
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: a pretty extraordinary mission in the New York Times. You

626
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 2: know it's bad when they are being that candid. A

627
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 2: ground invasion certainly makes a lot more sense after reading that.

628
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 2: And let me just read you a little bit of

629
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: this piece from the New York Times that he's quoting here,

630
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: he says Iran has bombed US bases across the Middle

631
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: East in retaliation for the US Israeli war, forcing many

632
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: American troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout

633
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 2: the region. According to military personnel and American officials, Now

634
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 2: we've been told many times, this is them using civilians

635
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: as human shields, right, isn't that what's going on here?

636
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: Isn't that you know, the definite Oh you're you're in

637
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: these civilian population, these civilian hotels. Aren't you putting civilians

638
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: at risk? Isn't it? Now? Not Iran's fault if civilians

639
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: get killed when they're targeting US military personnel. That's what

640
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 2: we were told by the Israelis for years and years,

641
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: it says. So now much of the land based military

642
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: is in essence working remotely, with the exception of fighter

643
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 2: pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes.

644
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 2: They go on to talk about, you know, some of

645
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: the specific damage to the various bases in the region,

646
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 2: but you know, Saga, the fact that meant most of

647
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: the thirteen military bases have been damaged to the extent

648
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 2: that they are effectively uninhabitable, and that our personnel feels

649
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: so endangered there that now they're in civilian hotels and office.

650
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: I mean, this is extraordinary, I mean shocking. I would

651
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 2: not have thought, Yeah, I wouldn't. I genuinely would not

652
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 2: have thought. At the beginning of this one, I thought

653
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: iron could do damage. I thought they could definitely strangle

654
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 2: the global economy. I didn't think that they could just

655
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: you know, Willy Milly hit our military bases and force

656
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: our troops to have to relocate to hotels and office.

657
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: But I knew it intellectually. I didn't know it for real.

658
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 3: And that's really what I meant is, you know, having

659
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 3: watched I mean, anybody can download Telegram and you can

660
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 3: watch which men die every single day on the Russian Front.

661
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: You actually can, And that's part of the tragedy is

662
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 3: that you can see the exact same playbook as I

663
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 3: don't know if anybody's seen the videos, the first person

664
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 3: of view videos of them taking out like an army

665
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 3: ambulance helicopter, ten million dollar helicopter.

666
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: Twenty thousand dollars DRN. I mean, it's just story.

667
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 3: You could see this every time that we are in

668
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: one of these types of conflicts, but we didn't prepare properly.

669
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: At the end of the day, we had a ton

670
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 3: of confidence in our interceptors. Imperial hubris a tale as

671
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 3: old as time, right, that's the tragedy of it. And

672
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: now you have tens of thousands of troops working remotely.

673
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 3: God help us if some hacker or something takes out

674
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 3: Internet access. Now what, I hope it works outright. I

675
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 3: hope starlink keeps working up. There doesn't take much. Actually,

676
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 3: just think about the actual problem with that. And then

677
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: also you have all this dispersal, which causes kinds of chaos.

678
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 3: You have also the humiliation of having to evacuate a

679
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 3: large base. By the way, as I just said earlier,

680
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 3: this shows you how having these large concentrated basis, aircraft carriers, etc.

681
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: Probably not the way that you want to be prepared. Oops,

682
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 3: that's the way our entire empire is structured right now.

683
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: Very you know, very what is it very vulnerable.

684
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 3: To attacks and to tactics like this, which every military

685
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: in the world who's an adversary of the United States

686
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 3: will now be studying for all time. So you can

687
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 3: just see how the script for the next big one

688
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: you can study this very easily, the vulnerabilities. Do we

689
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: really trust our military industrial complex and our leaders to

690
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 3: make any changes. They're going to keep buying these multimillion

691
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: dollar weapons systems. They're going to keep investing in these things.

692
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: Even with the interceptors. They're going to spend fifteen million

693
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 3: to shoot down a ten thousand dollars drone, will probably

694
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: even more, And that logic will make it so that

695
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 3: when it truly becomes existential, that we could be left

696
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 3: genuinely defenseless or it could invite real aggression in the future.

697
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: Is why we never ever should have done this. So

698
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: I don't see a way out. I just don't.

699
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 2: The last thing I want to do in this block

700
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: if we could put a seven up on the screen,

701
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 2: just to get a taste of how the Iranians are

702
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: talking about this. This is their military spokesperson. He says,

703
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: have your internal conflicts reach the point where you're negotiating

704
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 2: with yourselves, don't call your defeat an agreement. You will

705
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: see neither your investments in the region, nor previous energy

706
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: and oil prices return until it is our will. Nothing

707
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 2: will return to how it was. That will only happen

708
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: when the idea of acting against the Iranian people is

709
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: completely a RaSE from your minds Our position from day

710
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 2: one has been clear and remains unchanged. Someone like us

711
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: will never come to terms with someone like you, not

712
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 2: now and not ever. So that is the message the

713
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: Iranians are putting out in response to Charal Trump's talks

714
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: of Ohther's. So they're desperate to negotiator, They're begging for

715
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: an end to this, etcetera, et cetera. This is the

716
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: message they're putting out to the world and to their people, right.

717
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And you know, you can see exactly the

718
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 3: logic around this about the message of the Iranian regime

719
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 3: internally and then here in the US, this desperate want

720
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 3: for negotiation. By the way, this is part of the

721
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 3: problem with Trump's timelines because at a certain point he

722
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: only ever has taco or fulfillment, and both are bad, right,

723
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 3: because if he continues to taco while I am pro

724
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 3: ultimate taco in the interim, He's just going to keep

725
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: leaving things open ended. So let's say, if you look

726
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 3: at what's the only real peace piece deal Trump has

727
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 3: signed was Gaza, Right, Well, was it really a peace deal?

728
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: We have this weird Board of Peace. People continue to

729
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 3: die in Gaza every single day. There's no lasting settlement

730
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: for what post you know, governance is going to look like.

731
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 3: Hamas remains largely in power over the population. The Israelis

732
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 3: have total security control, like of the ability to impose

733
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 3: a blockade and everything. On top of that, nobody has

734
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 3: any future that that will work out. And by the way,

735
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: for the Iranians, they see that very clearly. They're like,

736
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 3: we can't enter in open ended some sort of fake

737
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 3: scene fire where Israel just gets to continue to attack

738
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: us every day. The only option is to continue to

739
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 3: bomb the shit out of them and continue.

740
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 1: To bomb us.

741
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 3: So the existing framework and infrastructure is not a real

742
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 3: pathway to real peace with this conflict. So you can

743
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: actually see how Trump's preference for deal making is to

744
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: keep everything open ended, where you're dealing with an adversary

745
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 3: which can still punch back, not like Hamas could, which

746
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: could only internally but could actually inflict some sort of

747
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 3: damage and remains largely politically intact. Well, they're never going

748
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 3: to accede to that. The only way to get them

749
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 3: to do that would be to invade and to occupy them.

750
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: And yeah, we can we could do that, it would

751
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 3: be a nightmare, right and for politically, for the people

752
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 3: of Iran and also our own service members.

753
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 2: I mean we at our peak, I think we had

754
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 2: like one hundred and seventy thousand service members on the

755
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 2: ground in a rock. And Iran is four times the

756
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: size of a rock and has notoriously extraordinarily difficult geography

757
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: to control, by the way, because it's so mountainous. So

758
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, yeah, we could, but even

759
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 2: if we like went all in, it still would be

760
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 2: a very difficult military Jeah, this is not you know,

761
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: this isn't a gimme. Even if we did do a

762
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 2: full on hundreds of thousands of troops on the ground

763
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 2: type invasion, I don't know. What a mess, That's all

764
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: you can say. What a mess?

765
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think in Vietnam, I'm looking it up.

766
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 3: I want to say it was several hundred thousand at

767
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: its absolute Yeah, five hundred and forty three thousand troops

768
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 3: in country in Vietnam. And that's South Vietnam, which is

769
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 3: half of Vietnam, which is not a very big country.

770
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 3: Now compare that to Iran, right, So I mean when

771
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 3: I say we could do it like we could do

772
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 3: it politically, like we could take over Tehran and a

773
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 3: few of the population centers.

774
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: Can you truly occupy the old country?

775
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 2: No?

776
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: I mean even that it's and why would you even

777
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: want to write?

778
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly so you could see I hate to be

779
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 3: so catastrophic.

780
00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: I've just been mulling it. You know.

781
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 3: I see the Iranian response. I see the way that

782
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 3: Trump is talking. He doesn't have a way out. You

783
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 3: see the Israelis who are assassinating everybody that they possibly can.

784
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: Just yesterday came out and they go, we have taken

785
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: the Foreign minister off the kill list. And you're like, oh, okay,

786
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 3: I mean so you were trying to kill him before that.

787
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: You're like, thank you, I guess. But they want they want.

788
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 2: It's what they did with who could even believe them also, and.

789
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 3: They want they just want to kill everybody who could

790
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 3: possibly negotiate. That's literally what they did with Hamas to

791
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 3: make it so that the only viable option was total destruction,

792
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 3: which even then they weren't able to achieve. So with

793
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: all that big preamble, let's get to the ground troop stuff.

794
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: Turning now to the ground troop section, let's go ahead

795
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 3: and put this up here on the screen. Some breaking

796
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,720
Speaker 3: news here from Barak Ravid, who is of course a

797
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: White House scribe. Could it all be posturing, certainly could,

798
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 3: but we should take it seriously.

799
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:52,959
Speaker 1: He says.

800
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 3: The Pentagon is preparing for a massive quote final blow of.

801
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 1: The Iran war.

802
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 3: A fine I have never heard that word before in history,

803
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 3: have I. Usually it accompanies a massive invasion that doesn't

804
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 3: work out. It has to lead to another final blow,

805
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: and just this time it will break the enemy. The

806
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 3: Pentagon is developing military options for the final blow. A

807
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 3: dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress

808
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 3: is made. They think a crushing show of force to

809
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 3: conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks,

810
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 3: or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory. Iran,

811
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 3: of course, has a say in how the war ends.

812
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: Many of the scenarios would risk prolonging and intensifying the conflict.

813
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:38,320
Speaker 3: It would include potentially invading or blockading carg Island, invading Larak,

814
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 3: an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the

815
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 3: Straits of Hormuz, seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa,

816
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 3: and two smaller islands which lie near the western entrance

817
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 3: to the Strait and are controlled by Iran but also

818
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 3: claimed by the UAE and blocking or seizing ships that

819
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 3: are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the

820
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 3: Hormuz Straight. The military has also prepared plans for ground

821
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 3: operations deep inside the interior of Iran to secure the

822
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 3: highly enriched uranium buried within nuclear facilities. Instead of conducting

823
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 3: such a complicated and risky operation, they could also carry

824
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,479
Speaker 3: out large scale air strikes on those facilities to try

825
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 3: to prevent Iran from ever accessing that material. Now you

826
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 3: put this together with all of the troops that are

827
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: currently on their way to the region, and you could

828
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 3: be reasonably confident that something like this could happen absent

829
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 3: a huge diplomatic breakthrough in the next four hours. Starting

830
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 3: tomorrow is when the is when the five day deadline

831
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 3: Slash extensions Slash expires. Slash Market is closed right exactly

832
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 3: tomorrow at four thirty pm. Everybody opened their eyes. I joked,

833
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: it brings a whole new meaning to weekend warriors. You

834
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 3: can only fight, you know, we literally are weekend warriors.

835
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 3: We can only fight when the market is closed. What

836
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 3: imagine trying to time D Day with when the S

837
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 3: and P was going to open in New York City.

838
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 2: Book, that's the way to which stage?

839
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 1: God, I don't even know. Let's go to the the

840
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 1: next one. Let's put this up here on the screen.

841
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 3: Big indication that something is happening is that at least

842
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 3: three Congressional Republicans, including the chair of the House and

843
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 3: the Senate Armed Services Committees, are quote hinting strongly that

844
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 3: a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially

845
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: be underway soon. All of them have voiced frustration with

846
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 3: the lack of information that has been shared from the Pentagon.

847
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 3: One of them, also, Nancy Mace. Senate Armed Services Committee,

848
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: of course, is the committee responsible for appropriating funds for

849
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 3: the Pentagon. They are doing many of the leaks that

850
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 3: we've gotten, for example about the billions in damage, how

851
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 3: much munitions, et cetera. Has been fired, that comes from

852
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: legal updates that the Pentagon must make to the Senate

853
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 3: Armed Services Committee. And especially why remember that they're going

854
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: to request some two hundred billion in the future. This

855
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 3: is the way that it's all going to play out. Now,

856
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 3: why do we need to do a ground invasion. Why

857
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 3: does something need to change. It's very simple, flagged on

858
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 3: the show from day one. Interceptors doesn't math. Let's put

859
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 3: this up here on the screen. So this is from

860
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 3: the Royal United Services Institute. It is one of the

861
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 3: oldest I believe it might be the oldest defense think

862
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 3: tank in the world. It's a UK based think tank

863
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: and very similar, let's say here to the United States

864
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 3: the CSIS what is its Center for Strategic Institute Studies

865
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: something like that. But these are very respected defense think tanks,

866
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 3: usually very tied into the military industrial complex and almost

867
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 3: always actually have a pro war bias.

868
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 1: However, they're very good at what they do.

869
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: They do a lot of analysis around interceptors, math, They

870
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 3: read budget proposals, they look at open source and they

871
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 3: compile all the data together. So I want to be

872
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 3: clear here they don't have the exact data, but they

873
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 3: have a very good track record. Now here is what

874
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 3: they warn Let's put my tweet please up here on

875
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 3: the screen. So the Royal Services, the Royal United Service

876
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 3: Institute now estimates Israel is days away from running out

877
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: of aerow interceptors and that the United States has already

878
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 3: burned about forty percent of the available FAD stockpile in

879
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 3: the Iran war and only has.

880
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: About three weeks left.

881
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 3: So let me linger here a little bit on all

882
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,399
Speaker 3: of the types of munitions, the Arrow two and Arow

883
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: three munitions. These are the interceptors that come up hit

884
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 3: the Iranian missiles.

885
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 1: By the way, they haven't even been working that well.

886
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: Do you notice crystal of the date on the projected

887
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 3: depletion date March twenty seventh, twenty twenty six. The current

888
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: date is March twenty six. Now they could be wrong.

889
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 3: They could be wrong. This was based on the projections

890
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 3: of the first sixteen days of the conflict. And you

891
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 3: know one reason they might be wrong is they had

892
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 3: to stop firing them, so they might extend the runway

893
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 3: a little bit.

894
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 1: But that's not good.

895
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 3: The second Allied FAD interceptors partner operated UAE, etcet Jordan, Right,

896
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 3: et cetera. Other countries which have access projected run date

897
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 3: is April third, twenty twenty six. Israel they have the

898
00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 3: Blue Sparrow air launched ballistic missile. Projected runout date April fifth,

899
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. David Sling Defensive April sixth, twenty twenty six.

900
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 3: Israel rampage supersonic missile April ninth, twenty twenty six, US

901
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 3: okay April twelfth, April twenty twenty six, THAD Israel operated

902
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 3: April eleventh, and then THAD US operated April seventeen, twenty

903
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 3: twenty six, only a couple of weeks. And then if

904
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: you actually look at the percent of the total stockpile,

905
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 3: ARO three in the first sixteen days was already eighty

906
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: percent depletion, US was at forty and so just imagine

907
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 3: at forty and we'd already burned twenty five percent of

908
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 3: the existing stockpile in the twelve day.

909
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: War and we're already at forty in the first sixteen days.

910
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 3: So the mac is almost almost certainly correct if you

911
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 3: just look at how things worked in the twelve day

912
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: war to today. This means that the current way that

913
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 3: things are going is is impossible. We cannot keep this

914
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 3: happening because all critical infrastructure, US bases, everything is now free.

915
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: It's going to be free game if things just continue

916
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 3: to operate as they do. Because we have been unable

917
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 3: to take out all the drones or all the ballistic

918
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 3: missile programs as we warned, you could take out ninety

919
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 3: five percent. But even that five percent, if the interceptors

920
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 3: are low, they can do a shit ton of damage.

921
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 1: So here we are.

922
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 3: Now we have to do something to change the strategic

923
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 3: calculus because the status quo is not going to work.

924
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 3: So you could either have diplomacy or you would have

925
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 3: to have an invasion to go in and to secure

926
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: and to change the status quo.

927
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: And that is the problem. Also, don't just take my

928
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: word for it. Put B four up there on the screen.

929
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 3: Another piece of analysis this is from the Jerusalem Posts,

930
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 3: who obviously would know Operation Epic Fury has drained one

931
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: third of the bad supply, so their estimates even higher

932
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 3: are a little bit lower, and replenishment could take eight years.

933
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,760
Speaker 3: While the ninety percent hit rate is elite, every launch

934
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 3: against Iran depletes the readiness needed for potential conflict with China.

935
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 3: And remember we already stripped a decent amount out of

936
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 3: South Korea of a lot of these interceptors and they

937
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 3: take years to rebuild. Literally only what you know for

938
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 3: some patriot, I think it's just like one facility, et cetera.

939
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 3: The biggest problem now is okay, so ground troops to

940
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,240
Speaker 3: do what well, as they said, for this final blow

941
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: to take control of the Straits of Hormuz. I think

942
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 3: that the nuclear facility option is the one that makes

943
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 3: the most sense, and it's because for every one of

944
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 3: these wartime leaders to change things, they need to do

945
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 3: something big and especially trump spectacular, and you can declare victory.

946
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:37,919
Speaker 3: So taking control of the strait is basically a continuation

947
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 3: of the war.

948
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: Now.

949
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 3: I could see it as in, I'll take control of

950
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 3: the straight away from Iran, which means that they'll have

951
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 3: to break because they'll have no more money and that's

952
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,919
Speaker 3: their only real point of leverage. But that isn't something

953
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 3: that's actually going to wind up the war. The only

954
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 3: way that I see that he could truly try to

955
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 3: declare victory and say this is all over is to

956
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 3: go in and actually take out their entire nuclear for

957
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 3: their entire nuclear stockpile, of the material that could be enriched,

958
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 3: and some of their facilities. But that is fraught with

959
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 3: risk in the middle of mountains, they're going to turn

960
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 3: it into a death trap.

961
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: A lot of it is buried.

962
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 3: Under rubble because we did that, and so it's not

963
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 3: even that easy to go and get there's no good

964
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 3: options here. Yeah, Like in terms of ground options, taking islands,

965
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 3: you're sitting ducks for drones, for missiles for you.

966
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 1: Know, they want us to invade. They've even said that.

967
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 3: They're like, we've been preparing for this, and we want

968
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 3: you to come and to try and take our territory.

969
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: We're happy to try and to fight you. A lot

970
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 3: of them will die, but it will actually probably mobilize

971
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 3: their population more than ever. And of course they want

972
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: the American populace to turn against casualties, so for them

973
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,479
Speaker 3: it might even be a good thing. Now on the

974
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 3: islands and the straits and all that stuff. The military

975
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 3: logic would not necessarily be one that would truly break,

976
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 3: you know, the negotiation power. I really think that the

977
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: nuclear option is the only one, or is the only

978
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: one where he could potentially try and sell it as

979
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 3: the end. Now I don't even think it would be.

980
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 3: I don't even think it would be the end. I

981
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 3: think it would probably get us deeper into it. But

982
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 3: in his mind, and a true surrender is not on

983
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 3: the table. You have to do something, that's all I

984
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 3: can see them and trying to do right now.

985
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 1: Of course, Gambler, it's just me. I could be wrong.

986
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 2: He's a big risk taker. He's a big ambler. So

987
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 2: I mean, I think there's a logic to what you're saying.

988
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 2: Because they name all these different islands that they could

989
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 2: come in and occupy. The problem with all the islands

990
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 2: is the same. I mean, first of all, it's not easy.

991
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 2: You're like a sitting duck there. But let's say you're

992
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 2: able to take over the island, then you're there and

993
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 2: you continue to be a sitting duck and then you

994
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 2: have to occupy it what forever. So no, that's not

995
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 2: if you're looking to be able to declare mission accomplished

996
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: and walk away. That's the opposite of that. That's you

997
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 2: being embedded indefinitely on this Iranian island, you know, getting

998
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 2: your troops expo having your troops exposed and killed whatever

999
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 2: the Iranians feel like it, and doesn't take that much

1000
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 2: for them to be able to again exact pain. If

1001
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: you've got American service members occupying one of these islands,

1002
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 2: it will not fully solve the problem with the straight

1003
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 2: of horm mooves. And again you're there indefinitely. So okay,

1004
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 2: that's that's one option. If you're trying to find some

1005
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 2: spectacular off ramp and you've you know, you're still high

1006
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:11,360
Speaker 2: on your quote unquote success in Venezuela. Yeah, maybe you

1007
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 2: go with the what is truly like an insane and

1008
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 2: insanely risky option to try to drop you know, paratroopers

1009
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: on the ground in Iran and secure this loose nuclear

1010
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 2: material that is buried underground in some of which they

1011
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 2: don't even know where it is, and try to use

1012
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 2: that to declare mission accomplish. Problem is there too, not

1013
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,319
Speaker 2: only Okay, let's say that by some miracle, you pull

1014
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 2: this off or some facsimile of it off enough so

1015
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 2: that you can say, look, we did it. Okay, we're

1016
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 2: going away. You think Israel's going to stop? Are you

1017
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 2: going to constrain Israel? Because there's no evidence of that,

1018
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 2: and the Iranians do not you know, accept the idea

1019
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 2: that Israel acts independently of us, because they don't. So

1020
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 2: you know, they're not fools enough to buy intoel. That's

1021
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 2: just Israel doing that. We have nothing to do with it.

1022
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 2: So if Israel continues to attack them and mess with them,

1023
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: and they're going to continue to you know, hit our service,

1024
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: hit our bases in the region, etc. And then we're

1025
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: right back where we started, So I don't know. That's

1026
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 2: why we look at all of this and it's very

1027
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 2: hard to see how any of it, even if in

1028
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: the fantasy land where it succeeds spectacularly beyond anyone's wildest dreams,

1029
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 2: it still doesn't seem like it's any way to get

1030
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 2: to an off ramp. It seems more likely to get

1031
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 2: a bunch of service members killed, and you know, push

1032
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: us one war, cheating up the escalation ladder, and get

1033
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:28,240
Speaker 2: us further embedded and meshed and think this thing indefinitely.

1034
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 3: The other thing I've been thinking a lot about, let's

1035
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 3: put the next one up here just to kind of

1036
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 3: prove this point out, is that we actually have made

1037
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 3: this ex essential for a couple of parties. One is Israel,

1038
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 3: because now they're screwed. They have to finish the job right,

1039
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 3: because now they really are a threat and they're really

1040
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 3: low on interceptors.

1041
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 1: The other is the golf.

1042
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 3: So how can the golf truly be safe with an

1043
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 3: existing Iranian regime? They can't, right, they need regime change

1044
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 3: now at this point, even though they wanted to avoid

1045
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 3: it in the past. Well, here we have some reporting

1046
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 3: from the New York Times that Emily flagged, which is

1047
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 3: that the MBS. The leader of Saudi Arabia, has been

1048
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 3: arguing that the United States should consider putting ground troops

1049
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 3: in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and to force the

1050
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 3: government out of power. Why because for them, they've taken

1051
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 3: hits now with in Aramco, Dahron, They've got these hoothies

1052
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 3: down in the Red Sea. They've had their refineries at

1053
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 3: Yanbu hit, they've had the straits closed. This is an insane,

1054
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 3: actual existential threat to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, to Qatar,

1055
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 3: to all of these countries. So Qatar has been courageous.

1056
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 3: I'll give them credit. They're like, look, we have to

1057
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: live with Iran. It is what it is. You know,

1058
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 3: we're a small country. They're a big country. We're not

1059
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 3: that far away from each other. But Saudi Ua means

1060
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 3: are filthy rich, large powers. For them, they've had tremendous

1061
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 3: economic damage and they rely on foreign investment and foreign

1062
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 3: buyers more than anything. So you messed with oil, you can't.

1063
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,439
Speaker 3: We can't be having this right. So for them, they're

1064
00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: actually itching to try and get into the war. The Saudis,

1065
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: they've been Trump, Hey, yeah, let's do it. Let's put

1066
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 3: ground troops in there. That's another issue is now you

1067
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 3: have allies who have divergent interests from ours. They need

1068
00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 3: us to go all in to finish the job for them.

1069
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 3: They don't have the capacity. So that's a big problem.

1070
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,839
Speaker 3: Now you have Israel and you have the Golf, who

1071
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 3: again we put them in danger, but the Golf at

1072
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 3: this point they're stuck with us. It's like a marriage

1073
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 3: and they're like, well, no, you have to go. And

1074
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 3: so that escalates the logic.

1075
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: Well, and how much money does Trump and his family

1076
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 2: have tens of business investments throughout the region too, that

1077
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 2: are totally cooked as long as you have, you know,

1078
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 2: an Iranian government in there that could any day send

1079
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,320
Speaker 2: one of their shawhead drones over and bomb your hotel.

1080
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 3: Not just Trump, right, We've got our entire VC, you

1081
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 3: know class Yeah, the entire Silicon Valley ego. You know

1082
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 3: how much Saudi money is sitting in Uber or even

1083
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 3: in Twitter, I mean the current on Twitter. You want

1084
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:58,240
Speaker 3: to talk about all these massive fortune five hundred companies.

1085
00:51:58,280 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 1: Do you have any idea how.

1086
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 3: Much the Saudi ra the Saudis, the Kuwaits, the Amurtis,

1087
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 3: how much money they have flown in US banks and

1088
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 3: all that, and of course for them, they're like, hey,

1089
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 3: all right, well maybe we'll pull it out if you

1090
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 3: don't finish the job and secure our interest. For us

1091
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 3: not even to mention here, the backbone of the Northern

1092
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 3: Virginia economy is what defense contractors. Who do you think

1093
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 3: keeps these people afloat? Not just the us UA and everybody.

1094
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 3: They've already purchased multip They've already put in purchase orders

1095
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 3: in the last month for more thads, for more missiles,

1096
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 3: all granted under emergency authority, which is a huge boon

1097
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 3: to the defense contracting industry. So put all that together,

1098
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: so you have the region itself which actually is aligned Israel,

1099
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 3: the Gulf. They need regime change. America's got the only

1100
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 3: troops that actually do anything about it. And now though,

1101
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 3: let's look at the other side to close the loop.

1102
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen. The Iranians

1103
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 3: here now saying, based on some data, Iran's enemies, with

1104
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,800
Speaker 3: the support of one of the regional countries, are preparing

1105
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 3: to occupy one of Iranian islands. All enemy movements are

1106
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: under full survey as if they step out of line

1107
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 3: all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction,

1108
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 3: become the target of relentless attacks, probably a shot at

1109
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, We're not exactly sure. We have also seen

1110
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:17,320
Speaker 3: some reporting from many of the analysts in the Gulf

1111
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 3: is that one thing about Iran is that they've done

1112
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 3: horizontal escalation, right, is they've gone all the way out. Well,

1113
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 3: if we try to see some of their coasts, what

1114
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 3: if they tries to seize the UAE or Kuwait or Qatar, Right,

1115
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 3: you only need a couple of boats and some you know,

1116
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 3: I mean, how how well defended are these countries from

1117
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:37,320
Speaker 3: an amphibious assault.

1118
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 1: Nobody knows. Have they even thought about it?

1119
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 2: The tops not I saw most theories were UAE and Bahrain, right,

1120
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 2: and Bahrain is you know, roughly fifty to fifty Shia Muslim.

1121
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 2: We've already seen some unrest there where the population is like, yo,

1122
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: we're actually on a run side. We're not on your side.

1123
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:58,400
Speaker 2: We don't like these I mean, these are installed family

1124
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 2: dictatorships that you know, we prop up because they do

1125
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 2: what we want them to do, and in exchange for that,

1126
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: you know, we protect them and do these deals with them. Etc.

1127
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 2: Although I don't think they're to feeling too protected anymore

1128
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 2: in any case. I mean, you a, how many actual

1129
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 2: like UA citizens even are there? Not many?

1130
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 5: Oh?

1131
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm the only thing of Dubai, but yeah, yeah,

1132
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: it's probably like five to one foreigners to to actual

1133
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 3: natives in the UAE.

1134
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean if and that's why Iran hasn't

1135
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 2: come close to exhausting the things they could get. They

1136
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 2: haven't come close, right, I mean they in the early

1137
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 2: days we saw some luxury hotels and things hit, which

1138
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:38,839
Speaker 2: is not totally clear that it was Iran, but there

1139
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 2: was definitely you know, damage in Dubai and some shocking things.

1140
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 2: How easy would it be to I mean, you've got

1141
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 2: US service members staying in hotels now throughout the region.

1142
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 2: You don't think they have any idea where any of

1143
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 2: them are. Of course they do, they know where some

1144
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 2: of them are. You know, you've got a population some

1145
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 2: of them are hostile to their own governments. You don't

1146
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 2: think they're feeding information to the Iranians, posting things on

1147
00:54:57,520 --> 00:54:59,799
Speaker 2: social media to let people know, you know, what's going

1148
00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 2: on there, so they could do they could do that.

1149
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,240
Speaker 2: The Huthias have not gotten involved over on the red seat.

1150
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 2: They could do that. They could actually, like you said,

1151
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,800
Speaker 2: change the change the borders themselves. Okay, you're gonna invade

1152
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 2: and occupy us in Lebanon whatever. Okay, Well, we've got

1153
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 2: our own ideas for the region, and you know, going

1154
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 2: into Bahrain or going into U eight. There are so

1155
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 2: many more things they could more aggressively even shut down

1156
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: the straight up homos where right now they're letting friendly

1157
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 2: ships through, which is easing some of the pain in

1158
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 2: the oil market. We'll talk about that in a moment.

1159
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:29,839
Speaker 2: You know, by at least having some of that oil

1160
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:32,240
Speaker 2: in the global market, they could take a more hardline

1161
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:36,400
Speaker 2: approach there as well. So there are many more things

1162
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 2: that the Iranians actually could do. So they have far

1163
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 2: from exhausted their capabilities in terms of the pain that

1164
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 2: they could inflict here.

1165
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 3: Yes, and then finally, I think what we need to

1166
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 3: mention here is about tomorrow.

1167
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 1: Tomorrow is a very important day.

1168
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen B nine, please,

1169
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 3: is that the thousands of Marines are now set to

1170
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 3: arrive in the region in sentcom on the exact same

1171
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,919
Speaker 3: day as the Trump deadline. So keep that very much

1172
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 3: in mind. That is the Japan based amphibious assault ship

1173
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 3: USS Tripoli, roughly twenty two hundred marines on board. From

1174
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:15,919
Speaker 3: the thirty first Marine Expeditionary Unit. You have another one

1175
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 3: which is on its way, and of course you also

1176
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:21,960
Speaker 3: had the eighty second Airborne where. Look, we don't know exactly.

1177
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 3: We do know based on the reporting, we know a

1178
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:27,360
Speaker 3: couple of things. Number One, the command element was given

1179
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 3: orders to go to Sencam to go to the region.

1180
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 3: The actual number of troops it's probably classified. They're going

1181
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 3: to try and keep it as under wraps as possible.

1182
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: They could already be there, They might be on their way.

1183
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,280
Speaker 3: Their mission is to be able to deploy in eighteen

1184
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 3: hours anywhere in the world, so obviously they're well trained

1185
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 3: for this. It would probably happen under the cover of darkness.

1186
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 3: It'll be decoys, et cetera. So we're never actually going

1187
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,280
Speaker 3: to know. They really already could be there and prepared

1188
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 3: ready to go. So keep that in mind as well.

1189
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 3: Is that you have marines and a lot some of

1190
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,839
Speaker 3: this is feints. If you were to ask me, I

1191
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 3: think that the marine element is probably the faint because

1192
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 3: what I would think is that they're going to try

1193
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 3: and pose as if they're about to take over some island.

1194
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 3: That's kind of what they want to concentrate their military resources,

1195
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 3: while you have a paratrobe re unit which is capable

1196
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,600
Speaker 3: of coming in and deploying anywhere across the country. So

1197
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 3: they want to keep the Iranian attention divided and uncertain

1198
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 3: as to where actually some sort of landing or some

1199
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 3: sort of attack is going to actually take place. But

1200
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 3: some of these units may be employed at any time

1201
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 3: obviously to go in and to participate in a very

1202
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 3: very risky operation. Yeah, and the reason why it's truly

1203
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 3: risky is that it's not a lot of people, like

1204
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 3: they would have to come in for something for what

1205
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 3: and are they really going to have the protection that

1206
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 3: they need.

1207
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 1: Very unlikely. That's the danger.

1208
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: And Iran is taunting us. They're saying, too American soldiers,

1209
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 2: come closer, you know, sending out memes. Arachi from the

1210
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 2: beginning has been like we are waiting for them, come on,

1211
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 2: like we're waiting for I mean, they're practically begging us

1212
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 2: to do some sort of ground invasion because they think that,

1213
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: you know, they can drop this in effectively a killbox.

1214
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, and I don't think it's

1215
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 2: just bluster. I think they do feel I think they

1216
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 2: feel very confident about the amount of pain that they

1217
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 2: could inflict there. So it's you know, and so you'd

1218
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 2: look at it and go, well, I mean these options

1219
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 2: all seem insane, and even as I agree with your

1220
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: logic about, you know, the way Trump would probably think,

1221
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 2: although he is so erratic that it's just very hard

1222
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 2: to say and changes his mind on a dime, depending

1223
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 2: on a whim blah blah blah. And we've seen that

1224
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 2: many times. But I will say one thing. You know,

1225
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 2: you really can't take anything he says seriously because he's

1226
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 2: such a fabulous a liar. I mean, you just make

1227
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 2: things up with the fly, et cetera. We did learn

1228
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 2: allegedly this big gift that the Iranians supposedly gave was

1229
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 2: allowing some tanker through the straight of Hormos, but they

1230
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 2: were already doing that anyway. In any case, you can't

1231
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 2: listen to what he says. But I will say, you know,

1232
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 2: the build up to Venezuela, there were actually you know,

1233
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 2: they actually move things, move military assets into the regional

1234
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 2: So I mean, we've paid very close attention to and

1235
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 2: unlike with his the other various threats against Greenland or

1236
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: Mexico or Canada or whatever, there were actually military assets there, exactly.

1237
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,560
Speaker 2: And in the build up to Iran, same thing. All

1238
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 2: of these military assets brought into the region. So I

1239
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 2: would pay much more close attention to what assets are

1240
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 2: being mustered versus the words that you know constantly flow

1241
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 2: out of his mouth, which oftentimes are contradictory and make

1242
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:25,200
Speaker 2: no sense. When he has brought military assets to the region,

1243
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 2: he has used them. So I think that's the you know,

1244
00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 2: that's the thing to look at from past behavior. That

1245
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 2: is the indication of.

1246
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 3: Where we are very like absolutely, and you know, you know,

1247
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,439
Speaker 3: part of the reason why almost every president does it

1248
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 3: is it's the easy option. The diplomacy stuff that's actually hard,

1249
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 3: that's way harder. Couple right now, and you've got some

1250
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 3: guy raising Cain. He's wearing his Patagonia vest and he's

1251
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 3: sitting there and they're selling you a dream.

1252
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 1: Of course we could do it, right. Couple a tepid thing.

1253
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 3: You got an idiot like Pete Hegseth and others in

1254
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 3: the oval or in the situation room. You've got a

1255
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,200
Speaker 3: bunch of people who allegedly were against the walls or

1256
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 3: just not. You know, they're telling Trump whatever he wants

1257
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 3: to hear. You know, did we do the highlight reel thing?

1258
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 2: Oh? Have that now? I thought we had it. I

1259
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:08,919
Speaker 2: was looking forward too. Maybe we can add it and post.

1260
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 2: But Ryan and Emily mentioned it yesterday. But it really

1261
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 2: is an important window into Trump's information bubble. And this

1262
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 2: is all, by the way, the way he constructed his administration. Okay,

1263
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 2: what he gets in terms of a briefing is like

1264
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 2: a boom boom, pew pew highlight reel of Americans doing

1265
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 2: badass bombings. It's like this, you know, yeah, and very

1266
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 2: little information coming from you know, about the amount of

1267
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 2: damage the Iranians have been able to do. He's getting

1268
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 2: very little information about that. He's getting these little short,

1269
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:45,760
Speaker 2: couple of minute long brief like hype reels. That's the

1270
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: president of the United States. That is what he's getting,

1271
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 2: Like the equivalent of the stupid fucking like DHS Twitter feed.

1272
01:00:53,400 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 2: That is what he's taking in. I mean, it's just

1273
01:00:56,160 --> 01:01:00,560
Speaker 2: it's it's so disturbing and disgusting. But when you're thinking

1274
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 2: about how he's viewing all of this and all of

1275
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:05,480
Speaker 2: these insane things, and all the victory narrative about oh,

1276
01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 2: they're obliterated and we've won, and victory is ours and

1277
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 2: they're begging us to talk, et cetera. Just keep in

1278
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 2: mind that his old ass, declining brain is just being

1279
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 2: fed like Fox News propaganda condensed down into these two

1280
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 2: minute reels.

1281
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:23,720
Speaker 1: It's the two minute reels plus Fox News propaganda. So

1282
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 1: those two things are very devastating, repotent, and dangerous.

1283
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 2: How do we get to this point where it's I mean,

1284
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 2: it's just like you see these around like multiple PhDs

1285
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 2: and whatever, and they're actually like have thought about this

1286
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 2: and have a strategy, and we're just like Middle Eastern war.

1287
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:45,560
Speaker 2: I don't think that'll affect the oil markets.

1288
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 3: Do you be careful when you go down this road,

1289
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 3: because you may find out that totalitarianism often can breed decently.

1290
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 1: That's a whole other that's a whole other conversation.

1291
01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 3: Turning now to enlistment and part of the other potential

1292
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 3: dangers here for the United State. It's going to put

1293
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 3: this up here on the screen. The US Army has

1294
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:09,960
Speaker 3: now raised enlistment age to forty two and eased marijuana

1295
01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 3: policies to bolster their ranks. The change takes effect April twentieth,

1296
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 3: alongside a new rule dropping restrictions for recruits with a

1297
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 3: single marijuana possession conviction. Obviously, I think people know my

1298
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 3: feelings on the marijuana front, but generally not usually a

1299
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,840
Speaker 3: good thing. Whenever you have to say, hey, you've been

1300
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:33,880
Speaker 3: caught with drugs before, no worries. Oh oh you're only

1301
01:02:33,920 --> 01:02:37,280
Speaker 3: thirty six. Come on in here, let's raise the age up.

1302
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 2: You're only in your early forties, right, I'm come on down.

1303
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're only for this is like Ukraine level stuff, right.

1304
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:46,680
Speaker 3: In addition to the age requirement, the Army has removed

1305
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:49,680
Speaker 3: restrictions for recruits who have a single possession of marijuana

1306
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 3: or drug paraphernalia. Previously that would have required a waiver

1307
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 3: from the Pentagon and the passing of a drugged Wait,

1308
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 3: we're not going to drug test guys who've been caught

1309
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 3: with drugs before.

1310
01:02:58,200 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 1: What are we doing here? All right?

1311
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 3: You want some a weed addict to be serving in

1312
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 3: the military behind behind drug at a gun military?

1313
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 1: According to Seth Hearts, oh that's even worse. Okay, get

1314
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:08,439
Speaker 1: them out too.

1315
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 3: Currently, the Navy and Air Force permit recruits over the

1316
01:03:11,280 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 3: age of forty, but the Marine Corps as a maximum

1317
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 3: age of enlistment for twenty eight fiscal year twenty twenty five.

1318
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:19,680
Speaker 3: The Army did see a recruiting bump following seven years

1319
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 3: of decline, but in twenty twenty two. In many of

1320
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 3: the years prior, they significantly missed.

1321
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 1: A recruitment goal.

1322
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,240
Speaker 3: Part of the problem, I'm assuming is that the twenty

1323
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:32,440
Speaker 3: twenty five Army recruitment bump or US military recruitment bump

1324
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:34,200
Speaker 3: is not enough to make up for like a twenty

1325
01:03:34,240 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 3: five percent deficit for years under the Biden administration, and

1326
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 3: so having to raise the recruitment age. It's just not

1327
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 3: something I would personally do in a time of war.

1328
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 3: Because this was by far of all the news that's

1329
01:03:47,320 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 3: broken through. I saw this one break through the normy

1330
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:51,439
Speaker 3: firewall more than anything.

1331
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 1: People are like, wait what, They're like, whoa, whoa, whoa.

1332
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 1: They're like, I didn't sign up for any of this.

1333
01:03:57,200 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 3: I will say, this is personally why I support a draft,

1334
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 3: because part of the problem with a volunteer all volunteer

1335
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 3: and military, while yes, I think it makes it much

1336
01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:09,480
Speaker 3: more professional, is it makes it much easier to deploy

1337
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 3: without democratic consent and I mean of the governed. So

1338
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 3: for example, post Vietnam, they said, well, what was the

1339
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 3: most unpopular part of Vietnam the draft?

1340
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 1: Well, let's just get rid of the draft part.

1341
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 3: And by getting rid of that, Iraq, Afghanistan, the years

1342
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:26,920
Speaker 3: of the forever Wars. You take the best in the

1343
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 3: brightest of these poorer areas, promise them the moon who

1344
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 3: sign ups in Ford f one, fifties and all this

1345
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:35,920
Speaker 3: other stuff, and then you just ship them off and

1346
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 3: it actually enables you to keep it going for a

1347
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 3: longer period of time. So that's what I look at

1348
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:44,080
Speaker 3: this recruitment age expansion as is to try and expand

1349
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,760
Speaker 3: the pool to be able to offer all of these incentives,

1350
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:49,520
Speaker 3: like the financial incentives and stuff, which I don't I'm

1351
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 3: not opposed to any of that per se, But what

1352
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 3: it does is it creates the space to actually bring

1353
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:59,120
Speaker 3: more people in the military and have less democratic consent.

1354
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 3: Like only one percent of people have ever served in

1355
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:03,840
Speaker 3: the US Armed forces. Very few people actually know people

1356
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 3: who've served in the armed forces. It's one of the

1357
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:09,040
Speaker 3: biggest class divides. If your upper income, you probably don't

1358
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 3: know anybody who's served in the military. It's extremely rare

1359
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 3: if you're college educated, again very very rare. Your closest

1360
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 3: connection might be like ROTC people on your campus, but

1361
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 3: you're not even going to know necessarily like enlisted folks.

1362
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 3: And that's the issue which we saw, is that with Vietnam.

1363
01:05:25,160 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 3: You know, yes we had a draft, but we had

1364
01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 3: basically the draft exclusion for a lot of the upper

1365
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 3: elite who didn't have to go into serve. Is it

1366
01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 3: ends up becoming like the poor the uneducated who are

1367
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:39,520
Speaker 3: either forced by circumstances or tricked or told to go

1368
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 3: into the war. And it creates exactly this type of situation.

1369
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 3: When you are expanding recruitment age, it's usually a sign

1370
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:50,080
Speaker 3: either that the populace is to obese, which is true,

1371
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:52,960
Speaker 3: true drug addicted true to you know, for a variety

1372
01:05:53,000 --> 01:05:56,640
Speaker 3: of reasons, like ineligible to serve. You have to create this,

1373
01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:59,760
Speaker 3: we have to like suck people more in for incentives,

1374
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 3: and it sends the message of we don't have enough

1375
01:06:02,200 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 3: people and we might be coming for you.

1376
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's the danger.

1377
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 3: Even though I do support a draft, but it's one

1378
01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 3: of those where I support it because I know that

1379
01:06:08,960 --> 01:06:11,040
Speaker 3: it would do what it did under Vietnam, where people

1380
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 3: were like I am not going for this war, like

1381
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 3: this is not happening, which will force you to engage

1382
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:17,360
Speaker 3: harder in the democratic process.

1383
01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:19,040
Speaker 1: It's a matter of life and death.

1384
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 2: We also have reports that, you know, the number of

1385
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:27,600
Speaker 2: conscientious objectors is surging, that you have service members who

1386
01:06:27,640 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 2: are saying things like I don't want to die for Israel.

1387
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 2: So there is a lack I mean, think of who

1388
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:37,160
Speaker 2: the military is, largely young men, right some of many

1389
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 2: of whom may have supported President Trump.

1390
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:42,560
Speaker 1: And statistically vast we did.

1391
01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 2: The vast majority of whom very likely opposed this war

1392
01:06:46,040 --> 01:06:48,560
Speaker 2: because I mean, if you look at the numbers generationally,

1393
01:06:48,720 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 2: you know, young people are the most opposed to it.

1394
01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:53,280
Speaker 2: So you're going to have a lot of service members

1395
01:06:53,360 --> 01:06:56,080
Speaker 2: who are you know, in the military right now who

1396
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 2: are not down with this mission. So you have that

1397
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:02,280
Speaker 2: is you you also you know, just zooming out to

1398
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 2: the sort of like more macro perspective. The best recruitment

1399
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 2: tool is the like a miseration of the population because

1400
01:07:08,640 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 2: if people are desperate, then and you're like, oh, we'll

1401
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 2: give you this perk and that perk, and you'll be

1402
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 2: able to like live and earn a decent salary and

1403
01:07:14,520 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 2: you know and have some prospects in life, and so

1404
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 2: as AI comes for like the you know, it's already

1405
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 2: destroyed a lot of the blue collar job path. As

1406
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 2: AI now comes for the white collar jobs as well.

1407
01:07:26,800 --> 01:07:28,880
Speaker 2: With my daughter's graduating high school, I know a lot

1408
01:07:28,920 --> 01:07:32,000
Speaker 2: of kids who she's graduating with that in my era

1409
01:07:32,040 --> 01:07:34,080
Speaker 2: would have definitely been college bound who are now going

1410
01:07:34,120 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 2: to the military. I know a lot. And so, you know,

1411
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 2: I think you've got now this expansion. Obviously, it's very

1412
01:07:40,360 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 2: ominous at a time of war, when you're looking at

1413
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:46,520
Speaker 2: a giant country like Iran, ninety plus million people, you know,

1414
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 2: all sorts of capabilities present, threatening ground evasion. And that's

1415
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,760
Speaker 2: the moment when you jump the enlistment age from thirty

1416
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 2: four to forty two. I mean that's also big jump, right,

1417
01:07:57,440 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 2: and we've seen what's happened in Ukraine. I mean it's

1418
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:03,120
Speaker 2: just very disturbing. And to your point about the draft,

1419
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,960
Speaker 2: if that doesn't give them the numbers and we end

1420
01:08:07,040 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 2: up in some big war in Iran, guess what the

1421
01:08:09,720 --> 01:08:12,200
Speaker 2: next tool is. It is a draft. So I know

1422
01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:14,760
Speaker 2: these things seem insane right now, but let's not forget

1423
01:08:15,240 --> 01:08:18,679
Speaker 2: Caroline Levitt was asked Hey, people are worried about a draft.

1424
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:20,679
Speaker 2: What do you have to say to that she wouldn't

1425
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 2: rule it out. Let's take a listen to that moment.

1426
01:08:23,640 --> 01:08:25,920
Speaker 6: Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have

1427
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,400
Speaker 6: a draft, that they're going to see their sons get

1428
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 6: and daughters get involved in this. What do you want

1429
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:34,799
Speaker 6: to say about the president's plans for troops on the ground.

1430
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 6: As we know, it's been largely an air campaign up

1431
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:38,559
Speaker 6: until now.

1432
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 5: It has been and it will continue to be. And

1433
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:47,360
Speaker 5: President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table.

1434
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:49,839
Speaker 5: I know a lot of politicians like to do that quickly,

1435
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 5: but the president, as commander in chief, wants to continue

1436
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 5: to assess the success of this military operation. It's not

1437
01:08:58,200 --> 01:09:00,639
Speaker 5: part of the current plan right now. But the again

1438
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 5: wisely keeps his options on the table.

1439
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 2: And you know, the most charitable reading of that Tsager

1440
01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:07,559
Speaker 2: is that she was not responding directly to the peace

1441
01:09:07,600 --> 01:09:09,880
Speaker 2: about the draft. She was responding to like, you know,

1442
01:09:10,000 --> 01:09:12,720
Speaker 2: ground troops or whatever. But did they ever come out

1443
01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:14,919
Speaker 2: and be like no, no, no, no, no, no drafts

1444
01:09:14,920 --> 01:09:17,439
Speaker 2: like you guys took that out. No they didn't. They

1445
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 2: let it just like they let you know stand what

1446
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:22,200
Speaker 2: Mike Kakabi said about Greater Israel project. Let that stand.

1447
01:09:22,240 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 2: They let this stand. Look, they're they're happy to put

1448
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 2: out a tweet. You know, the fake news media is

1449
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 2: twisting her words. No, we didn't get any of that.

1450
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:29,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

1451
01:09:29,320 --> 01:09:32,040
Speaker 3: And this is why I mean as I said intellectually,

1452
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:33,720
Speaker 3: I support a draft, like if you want me to

1453
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 3: leave my wife and my daughter, well it better be

1454
01:09:36,400 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 3: first and good reason, like the entire populis and also

1455
01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:42,640
Speaker 3: me and nobody else should be able to buy their

1456
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 3: way out like they have in the past. Like if

1457
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 3: we're in, okay, let's go, but then we all better

1458
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:48,679
Speaker 3: be bought in.

1459
01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:49,679
Speaker 1: To this decision.

1460
01:09:49,720 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 3: As a populist, we have clear defined ends. All of

1461
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:54,519
Speaker 3: our congressmen and others have voted for it. Fine, I

1462
01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:56,599
Speaker 3: actually I can make I can make peace with that.

1463
01:09:56,880 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 3: I can't make peace with some sort of piecemeal system.

1464
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 3: And to watch the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Because

1465
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:03,880
Speaker 3: you were talking about economical thing, this is part of

1466
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:04,640
Speaker 3: the tragedy of it.

1467
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 1: Because here's the truth.

1468
01:10:05,479 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 3: Joining the military is a fantastic financial decision. You will

1469
01:10:08,439 --> 01:10:12,759
Speaker 3: get free education, you get paid actually pretty decently compared

1470
01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:15,280
Speaker 3: to like a normal market wage, especially if you're a

1471
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:17,840
Speaker 3: newer graduate, if you're trying to buy a house in

1472
01:10:17,880 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 3: the future USAA. I mean, there's no better program in

1473
01:10:21,120 --> 01:10:24,599
Speaker 3: America than if you join the military, and that's part

1474
01:10:24,640 --> 01:10:26,280
Speaker 3: of the why a lot of people.

1475
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:28,559
Speaker 1: Do it, which I have zero issue with.

1476
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:32,600
Speaker 3: I do have an issue whenever it creates this economic

1477
01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:35,800
Speaker 3: incentive at a time of war to potentially have to

1478
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 3: go and serve in something which other people who are

1479
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:41,559
Speaker 3: more financially privileged don't have to do when they're not

1480
01:10:41,680 --> 01:10:44,559
Speaker 3: bought into it. If the whole populace is not and

1481
01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:49,120
Speaker 3: then those people are economically disenfranchised, it creates this There's

1482
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:50,280
Speaker 3: also a cultural difference.

1483
01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 1: There's you know a lot of people talking about it.

1484
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 3: In the South, there's a military culture, so you're more

1485
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,240
Speaker 3: likely to join the military, and then it creates a

1486
01:10:56,240 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 3: lot of division in our society. We lost four or

1487
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:02,719
Speaker 3: five thousand people during the Global War, and maybe actually

1488
01:11:02,720 --> 01:11:05,000
Speaker 3: no seventy to five hundred people in the Global Warrant tear.

1489
01:11:05,080 --> 01:11:07,840
Speaker 3: But if you look statistically at the counties that they're

1490
01:11:07,840 --> 01:11:11,479
Speaker 3: concentrated in, the people who are quote unquote elite or

1491
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:14,799
Speaker 3: richer had almost no contact with those people or those families.

1492
01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 3: So Iraq was a distant conversation, and unfortunately it looks

1493
01:11:18,600 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 3: like that's.

1494
01:11:19,000 --> 01:11:20,560
Speaker 1: What they want to recreate.

1495
01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, who are the type of people we even

1496
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:25,640
Speaker 3: have marijuana convictions or drug paraphernalia conviction.

1497
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:26,360
Speaker 1: In the first place.

1498
01:11:26,439 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 3: Who are the type of people who are going to

1499
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 3: want to join the military at age thirty? I mean,

1500
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 3: who's a thirty nine year old who wants to join

1501
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:35,960
Speaker 3: the military. It's usually not like uber patriot. It could

1502
01:11:35,960 --> 01:11:37,680
Speaker 3: be And no, you know, if you are one of

1503
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:40,360
Speaker 3: those people, God bless you. Most of the time, it's

1504
01:11:40,360 --> 01:11:43,240
Speaker 3: probably I've got two kids, I need you know, I

1505
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 3: need health insurance, I need a mortgage. I got to

1506
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 3: make the shit work. Yeah, that's the worst possible thing.

1507
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:52,880
Speaker 2: Look, I understand your and I don't even disagree with

1508
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 2: your like philosophical argument in favor of a draft, But

1509
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:57,800
Speaker 2: let me tell you if they try to implement a

1510
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:02,240
Speaker 2: draft right now for this fucking unpopular, monstrous, idiotic, illegal,

1511
01:12:02,360 --> 01:12:06,920
Speaker 2: offensive war of choice, abs of fucking lutely not, American

1512
01:12:06,920 --> 01:12:09,519
Speaker 2: people didn't want this, They didn't vote for this. You

1513
01:12:09,600 --> 01:12:14,200
Speaker 2: explicitly ran against this, like no, no, no, no, no,

1514
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:16,720
Speaker 2: we are not doing this and the people who've already died.

1515
01:12:16,760 --> 01:12:18,960
Speaker 2: It's been way too I mean, every single one has

1516
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:20,920
Speaker 2: been too many. And to your point, I mean a

1517
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:24,240
Speaker 2: bunch of like Reserve, you know, Reserve. They were thinking

1518
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,640
Speaker 2: I'm on this base and you know and kuwait, like

1519
01:12:27,680 --> 01:12:29,960
Speaker 2: they're not thinking that they're at risk. And it does

1520
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,120
Speaker 2: sitting there in a double wide trailer getting blown up

1521
01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 2: by a shad drone or whatever. I mean, it's just

1522
01:12:35,240 --> 01:12:39,800
Speaker 2: the cavalier way that they will just throw lives into

1523
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:42,839
Speaker 2: a meat grinder. And you know, I have to connect

1524
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:45,800
Speaker 2: it to the AI piece because they know that there's

1525
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:49,080
Speaker 2: going to be tons of extra superfluous human beings that

1526
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:51,880
Speaker 2: have nothing to do, and what better to do with

1527
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:55,360
Speaker 2: them than send them into some meat grinder. I honestly,

1528
01:12:55,600 --> 01:12:57,880
Speaker 2: I genuinely think that's part of what's going on here too.

1529
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 2: The logic of the oligarchs, as exposed in the Epstein files,

1530
01:13:02,320 --> 01:13:05,840
Speaker 2: if it's perfectly with that notion. They don't see your

1531
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:09,439
Speaker 2: sons and daughters as fully human. They don't care about

1532
01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:12,160
Speaker 2: whether they live or die. What they're looking at is

1533
01:13:12,280 --> 01:13:14,679
Speaker 2: how do I profit? What does this do for me personally?

1534
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:17,840
Speaker 2: What does it do for my legacy? That is or

1535
01:13:18,040 --> 01:13:20,880
Speaker 2: you know, what sort of compromising material might people have

1536
01:13:21,000 --> 01:13:23,240
Speaker 2: on me. That is the way that these people think

1537
01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:25,200
Speaker 2: and the way that they operate, and it shows in

1538
01:13:25,240 --> 01:13:25,599
Speaker 2: this war.

1539
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's get to polling.