1 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The length of the moving average 2 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: is irrelevant, but the ratio between the short term moving 3 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: average and the long term moving average is absolutely critical. 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: Japan from a point of view of an equity investor, 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: is in deep doo doo. Am I allowed to say 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: that we had growth from the first quarta of only 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: ten and yet the labor market seem to remain fairly strong, 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: and we're not quite sure how that square. Bloomberg Surveillance 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment 10 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, Carl Weinberg, you're allowed to say that. 11 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: What an interesting interview with Carl Weinberg today, predicting much 12 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: of the turmoil we see in the markets this morning. 13 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: Good morning, markets on the move. Futures negative thirteen down, 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: futures negative one. I wait, Michael McKee and Tom Keene 15 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: worldwide across the nation. We welcome all of you to 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Let me get right to an important for 17 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: X brief, brought to you you by Interactive Broker's winner of 18 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: f X Week's two thousand fifteen award for the Best 19 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: Retail for X trading platform, visit ib at i b 20 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: k R dot Com slash four x on amazing market 21 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,919 Speaker 1: three hours ago, very strong end three standard deviation moving 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: euro dollar's come back a little bit, Euro one fifty 23 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: three stronger, Euro stronger. Again, we had a one oh 24 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: five handle right now, one oh six point zero two 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: d x Y ninety two point four nine. And let 26 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: me get the ENTR day low on that blended dollar index. 27 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: It was a ninety one two at four o'clock this morning, 28 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: nine two on a very weak dollar. But again we've 29 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: recovered a little bit. Let's let's leave it at that, 30 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: because the linkage over the equity markets always um uh 31 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:55,279 Speaker 1: moved by newsflow uh. And actually there was some pretty 32 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: good company news today. Well there was, I mean, certainly 33 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: you can point of Visor as an example about yeah, 34 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: two and a half percent at the moment. The drug 35 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 1: makers first quarter earnings beat analysts average, Estmate and Bloomberg Survey. 36 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: Revenue surpassed projections by the widest margin in more than 37 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: a decade, and Fightser raised full year profit and sales forecast. Well, 38 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: that's an example. The good news not so good news 39 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: out of American International Group a i G. Stocks down 40 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: two percent. The Insured post a third straight quarterly net 41 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: loss a G hurt by losses on hedge funds and 42 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: falling values from other investments. In the chief nacial officers 43 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: said this. Sen Caeron said, today a I G is 44 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: taking back four point one billion dollars from hedge funds, 45 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: so the exodus continues. You might say CBS Health up 46 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: one percent. First quarter profit at the pharmacy owner and 47 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: drug benefit manager beat estimates. Uh they've benefited from a 48 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: takeover the nursing home pharmacy company Omnicare last year. H 49 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 1: holdings though down four percent. It's all about EBADA earnings 50 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The hospital owners first 51 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: quarter EBADA was lower than estimates, even though adjusted profit 52 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: and revenue were higher. And I bring up Evada because 53 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: it also applies. It also applies to Sprint and those 54 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: shares are up three percent. The mobile phone company's fiscal 55 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,679 Speaker 1: fourth quarter EBAD and revenue exceeded projections with the help 56 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: of cost cuts. Now returning to the drug industry for 57 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: a moment, my Lands up three percent. The drug maker 58 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,359 Speaker 1: set earnings will rise about sixteen percent this year, even 59 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: though prices for generic medicines are under pressure. My Lands 60 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: first quarter profits are past estimates and Malon Crowd up 61 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: six percent. Fiscal second quarter earnings and sales at the 62 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: drug company beat projections and Maloncroft race it's full your 63 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: earnings forecast. Valero Energy down two and a half percent. 64 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: The oil refiners first quarter profit and revenue trailed estimates. 65 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: E q T this is a natural gas producer, down 66 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: one a half percent. They sold seven hundred and four 67 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: million dollars of stock to, among other things, pay for 68 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: sixty two five acres in West Virginia that they're buying 69 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: from Norway stat Oil for Follion. I'm not so sure 70 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: of the da on Ibada. I wonder about intangible bad 71 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: will on a lot of these balance sheets. Well, there 72 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: is that want you want to know who has goodwill though, 73 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 1: yelped us and I say that because it has the 74 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 1: good will of David Einhorn. That's one manager predicted that 75 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: the Consumer Review websites revenue made double by sat that 76 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 1: in this quarterly What are the folks at Greenlight habital 77 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: uh and yelped up five and providing ibada through the 78 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: day one. David Wilson, thank god, Michael McKee and our 79 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: American politics, there's no discussion of IBA. Well, if there were, 80 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: it would probably come across as an epithet um and 81 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: Donald Trump might call somebody in Ibada or something like that. 82 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 1: Greg is with the Horizon Investments. He's there a chief 83 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: global strategist on politics, and it is going to be 84 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: I mean, I I don't think there's any way around it. Greg. 85 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: This is gonna be one of the ugliest campaigns we 86 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: have seen since the eighteen hundreds when they were traditionally, 87 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: you know, really really ugly. You've got Donald Trump out 88 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: this morning repeating a National Inquirer story as if it 89 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: were true that Ted Cruz's father worked with Lee Harvey Oswald. 90 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: Oh lord, I haven't seen that yet, but I agree 91 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: with your premise. I think it's going to be an 92 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: extraordinary ugly campaign. Little known factoid yesterday, Donald Trump had 93 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: lunch with Edward Klein, who who has written these books 94 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: about you know, bill sexual adventures. He contends that Hillary 95 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: has serious health problems, on and on and on. Most 96 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: of what Klein has written has been thoroughly discredited. But 97 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: I think Trump probably believes this stuff, and Trump will 98 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: use it, and the question becomes, then, ken Hillary Clinton 99 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: fight back in a way that the Republicans who ran 100 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 1: against the Donald were unable to. Well, he counterpunches so 101 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: well that you have to think that she could be 102 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: in some trouble. And if if she tries to play 103 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,799 Speaker 1: the woman card aggressively, and I think she will, Uh, 104 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: he is going to say, I guarantee you guys. He's 105 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: going to say, not only did Hillary look the other 106 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: way when Bill had all these affairs, but Hillary enabled Bill. 107 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,799 Speaker 1: That's going to be a tough one. How will independent voters, 108 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: which I assume are a lot larger group than they 109 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 1: were years ago, how the how will they react to 110 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: the redux of the aliens edition election of eighteen o 111 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: two or whatever it was. It's going to be ugly, right, absolutely, 112 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: so how will we How will independent voters react to 113 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: the presume villier ugliness. Well, it all boils down to 114 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: one thing. Whoever has the highest negatives will lose. So 115 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: Trump is probably sixty five, maybe even a little higher 116 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: than sixty five. She's fifty. If he can bring her 117 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: negatives into the low sixties and lower is negatives a little, 118 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: if their negatives are relatively equal, he has a chance. Well, 119 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: the interesting question is going to be how he does 120 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 1: that in the sense that there isn't a whole lot 121 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: about Hillary Clinton that hasn't already been said. She's been 122 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: in American politics and the American consciousness for so many years. Uh, 123 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: it's certainly he will say anything, whether it's true or not. 124 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: But will the American people. Actually, you know, I think 125 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: less of her than they already do. And I don't 126 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: mean that pejoratively, but given given that they already know 127 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: what they know, well, I would point to the Trump 128 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: nicknames a low energy job, lion, ted, little Marco. I mean, 129 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: those nicknames have been devastating. Now he's got Crooked Hillary 130 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: and that maybe as well. You know, one other thing 131 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: I gotta throw out, Guys, it strikes me with the 132 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: economy still looking mediocre. I think it's getting better, but 133 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: I'm not positive with the economy, he's still looking mediocre. 134 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: It is striking that she does not have an agenda, 135 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: a prescription to jump start the economy. That's going to 136 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: be a problem for her, but she can do that later. 137 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: What do they do after Indiana, after California? What is 138 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: your reading, Gregg of the history of what front runners 139 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: do all they wait and wait and wait for their 140 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: grand entrance. Well, usually they divot to the center. Trump 141 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 1: will have that luxury. Now. Unfortunately for her, she still 142 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: has to deal with Bernie Sanders, and Sanders is really 143 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: aggravating her campaign and many Democrats in Washington. He won't 144 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 1: go away, so it's not going to be quite as 145 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: easy for her to adroitly pivot to the center until 146 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: until he's gone. Where did the grace of exiting stage 147 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: right gracefully go? Ye? This is not like I remember. 148 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: I think that he, like so many candidates, lives in 149 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: an echo chamber and adoring echo chamber, and he doesn't 150 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 1: want to leave. He wants to go to the convention 151 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: and influence the platform, and that's a real problem for her. 152 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: Let me go back to quickly just a minute left 153 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 1: here what Tom just said about the independence. Obviously, people 154 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: see the headlines about the nasty thing Donald Trump said 155 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 1: this day or that day, But are they paying attention 156 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: the average independent, non involved voter at this point to 157 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: what's going on in the campaign. No, they're not. But 158 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: an awful lot of these people want to blow up 159 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: the system. And the big wild card is would that 160 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: include some of Bernie Sanders young people with some of 161 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: them as strange as it might sound, actually vote for Trump. 162 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: When does it get serious? When do when do people 163 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: start caring? At tomorrow morning. I think tomorrow morning it 164 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: will be clear who the two nominees will be. They're 165 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: gonna start going out each other right away. Greg, just 166 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: a great firmer, Thank you so much. What we'll try 167 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: to do, folks, is avoid the hysteria. Mr Vlier is 168 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: from the state of New Hampshire and tries to speak 169 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 1: and measured the guys. Guy that has to, you know, 170 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: censor all these news stories so this can remain a 171 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: family program. Can you imagine, you know that you got 172 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: to center the politicians. Michael, do you never seen an 173 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: election like this? I have never seen anything like this 174 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: in my life. And I I just I look at 175 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: it and I've been covering these things since eight four 176 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: and I'm like, yeah, my goodness. I mean you have 177 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: to see it, folks. Early in the morning is Michael 178 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: Barr synthesizes all the news flow that comes in and 179 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: and tries to gracefully put out the news and what 180 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: we hope is non hysteria. It's difficult, isn't it. Oh yeah, yeah? 181 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: And it's something where you know, my kid is asking 182 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: me what is somebody saying on the on the trail 183 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: and I can't repeat what there's exactly. Yeah, I'm in 184 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: the same boat as old Michael Barr with the news 185 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: here in the bod Futures negative thirteen down, futures negative 186 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: unless I came with Mr Barr and get the latest 187 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: world of national headlines. Mike Tom, thank you very much. 188 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: The US military officials says a U S service man 189 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: was killed in Iraq when militants from the Islamic State 190 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 1: group attacked penetrating Kurdish forces. A Pentagon spokesman said as 191 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: the serviceman was killed near Mosul, Iraq's second largest city. 192 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: It has been in the hands of Islamic State militants 193 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: since they took portions of northern and western Iraq in 194 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: the summer. Of Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. They're hoping 195 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 1: to make a huge comeback and gain some ground on 196 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. Republican CRUs has 197 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: spent the past week camped out in Indiana, the side 198 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: of today's primary. Democrat Sanders has conceded that he faces 199 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: a difficult path to overtake Clinton. Global News twenty four 200 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists 201 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around 202 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: the world. Michael Bar Mike Tom, Michael Bar, thanks so much. 203 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: A better tape right now negative fifteen on the futures earlier, 204 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: right now negative twelve del futures negative one oh six 205 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: the euro one sixteen handle earlier, huge move, still stronging 206 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: the one fifteen sixty one on the euro Michael McKee 207 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 1: and Tom King Coast to Coast Bloomberg Surveillance Marcat Drivers 208 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: brought to you by American Psycho, the musical. The Huffington 209 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: Post says, American Psycho is not the traditional Broadway musical. 210 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:16,239 Speaker 1: It's something different, beautiful and terrifying. For tickets, visit telecharge 211 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: dot com. Of then, when this is nailed to the 212 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: church the very day they hang for science, How does 213 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: the finance come together to make the Crucible happen for 214 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: the umpteenth time, and yet it's always in every case 215 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: of success. This, this version of the Crucible, along with 216 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: this version of A View from the Bridge, I think 217 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: came together because it was a visionary director who really 218 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: has has reimagined these particular pieces in a way that 219 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: is very exciting. I mean, look, I think that a 220 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: lot of times revivals will happen because there's a star 221 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 1: interested in the star will drive the box office. But 222 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: this isn't. These were not particularly starry, you know, sort 223 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: of piccino level stars. Um that drove these productions. All Right, 224 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: we're going back to the Tony Awards, Nicky James and 225 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: Andrew Reynolds with addition additional nominees. Mhm, Okay, we were 226 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: we were misinformed. Okay, we're not there because what did 227 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: you say? You were writing feverishly? You looked like me 228 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 1: and McKee NHL hockey and I brought a sharpie. What 229 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: but it's it's it's it's an actor's equity association, sharpie. 230 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: What do you see on the sheet? Who's not there? 231 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: What was you know? Within the gossip of the business. Well, 232 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: I think that the thing that will jump out to 233 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: most people is the lack of um. Audrey McDonald, who 234 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: is the who would have been nominated, who is eligible 235 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: and the leading actress in a musical category for Shuffle Along, 236 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: She's won six times. I mean, she's a fantastic actor 237 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: and it was just it was an incredibly competitive year. 238 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: I mean, people have been just raving about Carmen cusack Um, 239 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 1: Cynthia Rivo I think is probably the front runner for 240 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: color purple. Jesse Mueller is always good, Laura and Auntie 241 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: is always good, and Philip Asus the leading actress in 242 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: Hamilton's and you know Hamilton's also I think benefits from 243 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 1: what I would say is as close to perfect cast 244 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: album as you will ever hear. They really spent money 245 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: on producing it, and a lot of the voters who 246 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: live outside New York don't get to see every show exactly. 247 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: This is so important. Well, I just was noting when 248 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: you were reading off names there there is a real 249 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: difference between the Tony's and the Oscars. I mean the 250 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: hashtag for the Oscars was Oscar so white, say Tony 251 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: is so diverse? Yes hashtag Yes. I mean, it's been 252 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: an incredibly diverse season. And the thing is, I've wrote 253 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: a guest column for Variety about diversity a few weeks ago, 254 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: and the thing about diversity, the next mountain that the 255 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: industry has to climb is casting actors of color in 256 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: shows wouldn't have originally featured actors of color. To Hamilton, 257 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: a good example, if you were writing about Alexander Hamilton's 258 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: and the founding Fathers. Sure, sure, but I'm also thinking 259 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: about shows like My Fair Lady or Oklahoma. You know, 260 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: everybody knows that an audience comes to watch people pretend 261 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: to be other people, and there's no reason that so 262 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: many of them just traditionally have to be Caucasian. We 263 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: would be pleased if you would come back sometime when 264 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: there aren't nominations. I think it's it's very interesting. Is 265 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: I would like to talk frankly more about Arder McDonald 266 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: is just extraordinary. Is going to be fine, but she 267 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: is one of the best actors I've ever seen in 268 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: my life. Back no, but one of the last problem 269 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: she worked with Mike Nichols, right, yeah, yeah, I mean 270 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: very interesting. Thank you so much. With the Actor's Equity Association. 271 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: The idea here of the Tony nominations, which all it 272 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: just always translates into other work later on down the 273 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: road within the Creative Arts for America again the Tony 274 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: Award nominations, and Carol Master and Corey Johnson will have 275 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: much more on that. Um through uh the day, let 276 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: me do a day to check down, and then we're 277 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: gonna switch to the politics. The acting of the moment 278 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: in Dana future is negative thirteen. We've had some stability 279 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: here after the shock and awe of the Australian Central Bank. 280 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: Futures negative thirteen down futures negative one twelve yields in 281 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: a solid seven basis points. A real idea of a 282 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 1: shift here um this morning that you see within foreign 283 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: exchange with the Euro one fifty five was much stronger earlier. 284 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: Same with the again is well, Mike. The research piece 285 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: yesterday that shocked me was the intensity of Greg Vlier's piece. 286 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: Re says, Look, it's flat out the Senates at risk. 287 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: Why don't you pick it up there? Well, the Republican 288 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: Party is probably after tonight gonna have to deal with 289 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: the fact that Donald Trump is going to be the 290 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: nominee if the polls are correct, and that's always a 291 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: big if. Uh. He's going to win the majority, if 292 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: not all the delegates coming out of Indiana, which pretty 293 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: much doesn't quite mathematically do it, but puts him so 294 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: close it would be hard for anyone to stop him. 295 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: And the one thing we do know is that Donald 296 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: Trump has extraordinarily high negatives and that can affect races 297 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: down the ballot, Greg, absolutely, I think they're an awful 298 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,959 Speaker 1: lot of Republican moderates in the North, people like Nick 299 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: Kelly Ayott or too Mey in Pennsylvania, Rob Portman in Ohio, 300 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: who have to be really worried that they're going to 301 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: go down to the seat with Donald Trump at the 302 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 1: top of the ticket. And yet your note today suggests 303 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: that we should take Trump seriously that he has a 304 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: chance to win. I really think he does. I mean 305 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: it's not but it ain't zero. I mean I do 306 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: think maybe one and treat chance. I mean, a lot 307 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: of things have to break the right way. I think 308 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: that you know, he needs Hillary's email scandal to stay prominent. 309 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: He needs to see the economy continue like we saw 310 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: in the first quarter, very sluggish and frankly, sadly, I 311 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: think you can probably more terrorism, which you can't rule out, 312 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: would benefit him. Every time we've seen an incident like 313 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: San Bernardino or Paris or Brussels, his numbers go up. 314 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 1: I I take your point, Greg, I think it's a 315 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: very valid point about this. If if if, if if. 316 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: This one of the ifs is he's got to find 317 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: a vice president to run with him. Oh wise, one 318 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: to help me here. I mean, speaker English's name has 319 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: popped up. But is there any wisdom here on how 320 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: this guy finds a legitimate vice president candidate A heart 321 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: beat away. Well, a lot of people I think will 322 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: say no, But there is a perfect tick who would 323 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 1: hit all three of Trump's big needs. Number One, he'd 324 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 1: be the oldest president ever, so we need somebody younger. 325 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: Number two, he has to mend fences with hispanics. Number Three, 326 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: he's got to get someone who understands geopolitics. Mark A. 327 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: Rubio feels all three. And even though Rubio called him 328 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: a con man two months ago, in the last week 329 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: or two Rubio has said some fairly positive things. I 330 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 1: think Rubio would be a brilliant pick. This is you 331 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: know it, what's great? Mike? If you and I said that, 332 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: we burst out laughing. Gregg says it with a completely 333 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 1: straight analysis. Gregg, you are so ja It's almost nine centric. 334 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: It could happen. And you know, guys, I've been joking. 335 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: I would take the job. Anyone would take the job. 336 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: Because Trump has said his favorite foods are cheeseburger's, french fries, steaks. 337 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: He doesn't go to the gym, I'd take the job 338 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 1: for actuarial reason. Well, there would be a lot of 339 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: people hoping that might be the case if you were 340 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: the vice president. But the problem for anybody who is 341 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: considering the job is if Trump were to go down 342 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: to what at the moment looks like and historic defeat, 343 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,360 Speaker 1: and goes down at as a racist, as a misogynist, um, 344 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: all the positions that he has taken. Haven't you just 345 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: toasted your political career? Well, let's say you do, you 346 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: do well, and whoever is running mate is does well 347 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: in the debates. Um, you know, then I think in 348 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: when you know Paul Ryan's running, you know, Rubio is running. 349 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: I think whoever acquits himself or herself well as a 350 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: running mate gets onto the shortlist as a serious candidate 351 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: in how much would they be tirred by the Trump reputation? Well, well, 352 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: we'll see. I mean, Trump obviously has extraordinary negatives, you know, 353 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 1: but as I wrote in my piece today, so does Hillary. 354 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: I mean, she's in the mid fifties. Trump is I 355 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: think the Zeker virus is more popular than Trump with women. 356 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: But you know, if if Trump's negatives come down a 357 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: bit too closely her level, you know, then we might 358 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: have a horse race. I think everyone who is saying 359 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: that Trump would lose in an historic landslide is being premature. 360 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 1: I think it's too early to rule out somebody who's 361 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: energized so many really angry voters. Well, he's going to 362 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: have a big uphill climb when you just look at 363 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,359 Speaker 1: the electoral map. When you look at the map of 364 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: the states that have historically voted Democrat Democrat in like 365 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 1: the last six elections, if Hillary held those, she'd only 366 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: need to pick up something like seven electoral votes somewhere else. 367 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: She'd win the state of Florida and win the election, 368 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: whereas Trump starts with like something like a hundred and 369 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: sixty three electoral vote. Uh, shortage, you make a great point, 370 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: and that's why she is the favorite. Uh maybe not 371 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: the shoe in, but she's the favorite. And for all 372 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: of the listeners who followed this, like I do, just 373 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: google the electoral college lock and you you you look 374 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: at numbers that you just mentioned, Mike. I mean, any 375 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: Democrat starts with about two forty and you only need 376 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: to seven. So that is an enormous obstacle unless Trump 377 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 1: can break the pattern. Unless he can win Michigan, New York, 378 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: New Jersey. I don't think he can, but he'd have 379 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: to to win the general election. What outcome does the 380 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: establishment want today? I mean the poles of poles and 381 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: let's assume they're accurate, etcetera, etcetera. What outcome does a 382 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: stunned Republican establishment want? Well, I'd say, Tom, there's only 383 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: three scenarios. Narrow Clinton win, blowout landslide for Hillary, narrow 384 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: Trump win. The latter two I don't think the markets 385 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: would like because a blowout win for her means not 386 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: only does the Senate flip, but the House could slip too, 387 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: And you really think the House of Representatives of jerrymandered 388 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: America would flip? Well, if it's if the final score 389 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,880 Speaker 1: is sixty two to thirty eight, Yeah, I think that 390 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: if if Hillary one in a landslide that big, you 391 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: could see. So for the market's going to your question, Tom, 392 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: it's gonna be humor. Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton. That's not 393 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,919 Speaker 1: a great scenario. A Trump victory as scenario. That second 394 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: scenario means trade war with China, fight with Jane Yellen, 395 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: on and on and on. So the one scenario the 396 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,440 Speaker 1: markets would live with with be a modest hillery wind 397 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: that keeps the House in the control of Republicans. We 398 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 1: are going to continue this discussion. It is a perfect 399 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: day to continue on our economic politics with Greg Vllier. 400 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: Another hour of Bloomberg surveillance