1 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: Hey everyone, welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors Show. Today, 2 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: I am sitting down with Brent Johnson. He is the 3 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,600 Speaker 1: CEO of Santiago Capital. It's a wealth management firm in 4 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: San Francisco. Um. He's also been talking a lot about 5 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: the dollar milkship theory theory. I know a lot of 6 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 1: people have been asking me about that and I got 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: questions too. So, Brent, thank you so much for sitting 8 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: down and talking to us today. Yeah. Absolutely, thank you 9 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: for having me. I'm looking forward to talking to you great. So. UM. 10 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: I gave a quick background, of course, but maybe you 11 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: can just kind of give us a little bit of 12 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: a bigger picture, um, kind of what you've been doing 13 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: recently and what you're doing. Yeah, so, um, so, long 14 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: story short, I've got a Santiago Capital is uh SEC 15 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: registered investment advisor based in San Francisco. I do customized 16 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: wealth management for a couple of dozen clients uh and 17 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: then in addition to that, we run a private fund 18 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: that it's kind of focused on the dollar milkshake theory 19 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: for lack of a better word. Um. You know, I've 20 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: been doing this for a little over twenty years. I 21 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: was with Credit Swiss for a number of years. I 22 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: went independent about ten years ago, and um, you know, 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: worked with a buddy of mine at his firm and 24 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: then transitioned everything under Santiago Capital. So you know, I've 25 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: been doing kind of overall wealth management and been involved 26 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: in the market since uh, kind of the middle late nineties. 27 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: I guess, yeah great, and yeah, you know, Um, you 28 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: have such a good I mean, I guess you know, 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: you're one of the big macro economic people, and I 30 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: just love how you kind of take that big picture approach. Um. 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 1: And so of course a lot of that uh incorporates 32 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: a bunch of different assets, but really it looks deeper 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: into what the dollars do in the economy is doing, 34 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: the politics are doing, and so forth. Um is that 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: is Is that about accurate? Is that kind of your viewpoint? Yeah, exactly. 36 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: I've always kind of been a big picture guy. Um. 37 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: You know, when we get really really down into the weeds, 38 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: my eyes start to glaze over a little bit, and 39 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: I kind of lean on other people for that. Um. 40 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: The tricky part is that the devil is in the details, 41 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: so you can't ignore the details. But I just always 42 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: kind of naturally gravitated to look towards the big picture. 43 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: Um and so that's part, that's the part that I 44 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: really enjoy. And um, I think it's probably more important. 45 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: I think the big picture is probably more important than 46 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: now than you know, in the last twenty or thirty years. Yeah, 47 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: I agree, and I'm I'm really fascinated by the macro 48 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: picture as well. I love going back to history because 49 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 1: it's almost like, um, you see these these changes that happen, 50 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: and then you can see how they affected the future, 51 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: almost like a like a movie if I went back 52 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: in time and oh, don't touch anything because it changes 53 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: the future. Um. So do you think when you look 54 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: at the big macro economic picture, maybe like the big 55 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: moves are easier to predict in the short moves. I 56 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: think so. I think so. And I think if you 57 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: can kind of just get in front of the big 58 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: move and don't make any big mistakes, then you can 59 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 1: kind of ride that wave and you don't have to 60 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: get all the details correct. Um And I also believe 61 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: you can have the details a percent correct, but if 62 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: you get the big move or the big wave wrong, 63 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter how much you know about the details. 64 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: Um So. I So I do think that the big 65 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: picture is extremely important, and I think it's probably more 66 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: important right now because if if you're in the middle 67 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: of a twenty year wave, you don't really have to 68 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: focus on the big wave, right, you can just focus 69 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: on the details and ride the big wave. But if 70 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: you think that the big wave is going to turn 71 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: or crash, or we're at kind of an inflection point 72 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: of the big wave, the big wave becomes really important. 73 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: And I think we're kind of maybe we're not at 74 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: the apex of that big wave, but we're fast approaching it. 75 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: So I think it's a it's a very important time 76 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: to understand the big picture. Yeah. Well, I'm in southern 77 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: California and I'm a surfer, so I I think about 78 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: catching waves all the time. So I love that analogy. Um, 79 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: but you know, also, I think like the way that 80 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: you approach the market from a macro picture, it kind 81 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: of gives you more of like a top down approach, right, 82 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: so like, hey, this is where the money is moving, 83 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: let's focus there and then you kind of zoom in, 84 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: as opposed to saying, hey, Brent, what do you think 85 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: about this stock? Right? That's absolutely right, I mean I'll 86 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: tell you. I mean, there there's a few stocks that 87 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: I kind of fall allow individually. But I'm I'm not 88 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: a stock picker. You know, I have friends and colleagues 89 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: and you know, experts that I can reach out to 90 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: on the individual names. So I'm not going to sit 91 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: here and say I'm a great stock picker like Warren 92 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: Buffett or you know somebody else with David Ironhorn or 93 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: somebody like that, who really gets into the weeds on 94 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: an individual position. UM. What I try to do is, again, 95 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: I try to find the big wave and try to 96 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: figure out what what do you do? What sector or 97 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 1: what what market segment? And then from there, if I can, 98 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: if I feel like I can get that right, then 99 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: I can, you know, through through the help of some 100 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 1: friends and colleagues and partners, you know, go down into 101 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: the individual positions. Right. Okay, Well that's that. That's a 102 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 1: really good background. It kind of sets up everything we're 103 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: talking about. So, UM, I know you have this this thesis, 104 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: the dollar mix milkshake theory, and you talking about it 105 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: a lot, so you're probably getting sick of it, but UM, 106 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: it's such a great it's such a great illustration to 107 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: look at in UM, there's been a lot of moves 108 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: in the US dollar. I mean, there's a big wave 109 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: of the U S dollar, but maybe even more turbulence 110 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: which makes me have even a questions about it. But 111 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: maybe just kind of set the stage, give us the 112 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: background on what the dollar milkshake theory is, and then 113 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: we'll dig into that a little bit. Sure. So, the 114 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 1: first time I used the term dollar milkshake theory in 115 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: an interview or presentation was a little over two years ago. 116 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 1: It was late spring of two thousand eighteen. And at 117 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: the time, the US was embarking upon raising interest rates 118 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: while the rest of the world was still stuck at 119 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: zero or lowering interest rates, and you know that, so 120 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: so I was I was making the point that as 121 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 1: we have higher interest rates than the rest of the world, 122 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: that acts as a straw, and the straw goes down 123 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: into this currency milkshake that all the central banks around 124 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: the world had been mixing, you know, since the Great 125 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: financial Crisis, you know, euros, gen pounds, dollars, you know, 126 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,679 Speaker 1: pace those had all been injected into the global market 127 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: and it's just created this liquidity um and it was 128 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: all looking for a home. And in today's day, and 129 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: you know, world, you know just because money gets injected 130 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: in Germany doesn't even mean it needs to stay there. 131 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: You know, German investors convested in the U s. Or 132 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: South America or Asia or wherever it is. And so 133 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: my point was, it's not so important who injects the 134 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: liquidity's who captures the liquidity. At the time, UM, we 135 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: were raising rates, the rest of the world was either 136 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: lower in rates or keeping rates low. And I said 137 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: that will act as a straw which will help draw 138 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: that capital in the United States. And that that did 139 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 1: happen for about another year year and a half UM. 140 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 1: But the point that I like to make is that 141 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: while that has reversed, and as soon as they started 142 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: cutting rates, I came right out and said, you know what, 143 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: it's over. I thought we were going to get a 144 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: couple more rate hikes than they did. But we still 145 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: got nine rate hikes in two years. And many people 146 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: thought we wouldn't even get one or two, and I 147 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: said that we would get several, and we did. We 148 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: got nine rate hikes. I thought we'd get ten, eleven 149 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: or twelve. Maybe we didn't. We got nine, and they reversed. 150 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: But the point I like to make two people is 151 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: that while the higher interest rates was the most dominant 152 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: part of the straw that would suck up that couple, 153 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: it's it has never been the only part of the straw. 154 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is if we of gold, 155 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: and because I'm sure we'll probably talk about gold or 156 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: bitcoin or something at some point, but if we just 157 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: focus on fiat currencies for a minute, and let's say 158 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: you've already got your gold allocation, you've already got your 159 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin allocation, whatever percent of your portfolio it is, now 160 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: we can't talk about those anymore. And now we're just 161 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: going to focus on ten fiat currencies. One of those 162 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: fiat currencies, even if they are all horrible currencies, one 163 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: of them is going to do better than the rest 164 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: of the other nine. And the fiat game is rigged 165 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: in favor of the dollar. Um the whole system is 166 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: set up to be an advantageous to the United States. 167 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: And the reason it's set up that way is because 168 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: we set it up, and we were through global hedgemon. 169 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: So the idea that it's a fair game, it's just 170 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: not true. It's it is rigged, and it's rigged in 171 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: our favor. And so the point that I wanted to 172 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: make for a number of these other reasons in addition 173 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: to interest rates. And even though interest rates have come 174 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: down a lot in the United States, they're still higher 175 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: than the rest of the world, or or the majority 176 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: of the rest of the world. And so there's all 177 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: of these factors that I believe over the next two 178 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: or three years will lead to global capital flowing into 179 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: the US dollar, and by transition or whatever, once it 180 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: gets into the U S dollar, it will find its 181 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: way into US dollar assets, whether that's treasury bonds, or 182 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: real estate or cat or equities. I think the US 183 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: assets will outperform foreign assets over the next two or 184 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: three years as this big kind of fiat currency game 185 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: kind of comes to an end and the and as 186 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: a result of that, um I think that the fiat 187 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: currency game is kind of coming towards an end um 188 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: or there will have to be some kind of a 189 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: reset of some kind. But the point I like to 190 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: make two people is that the US dollar will die 191 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: from its strength, not its weakness, or it's it's It 192 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 1: is its strength which will cause the system to be reset, 193 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: not its weakness. That's my belief. Anyway, We'll see if 194 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: I turn out to be right, but that's my belief. Yeah. So, um, 195 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: would you say that it's the weakness because of the 196 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,319 Speaker 1: trade imbalances then, because if the dollar is too strong, 197 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: it it makes the US less competitive. That's part of it. Well, 198 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: that's part of it, but it's also it recks the 199 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: rest of the world. It recks the entire monetary system. 200 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is this gets a 201 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 1: little bit complicated. Now. I try. I try to keep 202 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: everything simple because but it is a very complicated topic. 203 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: But in our world, money is loaned into existence. Um 204 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: so as for the system to keep functioning, it has 205 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: to grow. That It's just it's the way the system 206 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: is designed. There is no reverse gear. Is that because 207 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: we have an inflationary system. We have an in place. 208 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: We have an inherent inflationary inflationary system because the debt 209 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: and the credit has to continually be extended. If it's 210 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 1: not continually extended, then it crashes. If you look at 211 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 1: the curve of any exponential system, well I should let 212 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: me take one step back. If you take a number 213 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: and you increase it every year, even if you want 214 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: to increase it by one percent every year. But if 215 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: you take something and you always increase it a little 216 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 1: bit every year, you will eventually get an exponential curve, 217 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: which means it goes straight up. And if you ever 218 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: look at any exponential curve, they never level off, they 219 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: go straight it up and then they crash. And that's 220 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: the type of system that we have. And so it 221 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: is inherently inflationary, and if it doesn't continue to inflate, 222 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: it will crash. And the point I'm trying to make 223 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: two people is if they keep extending it, it will 224 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: be inflationary. But if they can't keep it, it's going 225 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: to crash, and that's going to be a deflationary movement. 226 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: And a deflationary move the dollar spikes, which is already 227 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: maybe the problem we're seeing on a smaller scale, right, 228 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 1: I mean, over the last couple of decades, we continually 229 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: see the contraction, the deflation. Yes, the FED rushes back 230 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: in with the inflation. Right, that's exactly right. And that 231 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: the reason this is you've just hit on the key topic. Um, 232 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 1: there are two Most people don't know this, but there's 233 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: actually two dollar markets in the world. There's the U s. 234 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: Domestic dollar market and there's the dollar market outside the 235 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: United States. When the when dollars exist outside the United States, 236 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: they're called euro dollars. Um. You don't don't confuse it 237 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: with euros. A lot of people confuse it with euros. 238 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: That has nothing to do with euros. It's just if 239 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: there's a dollar account or a dollar credit or a 240 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: dollar um you know, deenomena, or if there's a currency 241 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: outside the United States, and they refer to that as 242 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: euro dollars. And the extension of euro dollar credit again 243 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: outside the United States has grown to where it's probably 244 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: the size, potentially even bigger than the dollar market inside 245 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: the United States. And to your point, when you get 246 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: these booms in these bus and and the role of 247 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: a central bank, the point of the central bank is 248 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 1: when these bus comes, they come in and they inject 249 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: new collateral into the system. The problem that we have 250 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: now is that the euro dollar market rivals the size 251 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 1: of the U S dollar market. But there is no 252 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: entity outside the United States that has the either the 253 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: authority of the ability to inject new dollar collateral into 254 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 1: the euro dollar market. Only the FED can create new dollars. 255 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: And so the only way that this is going to 256 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 1: not crash is if the US Federal Reserve decides to 257 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: bail out the rest of the world. Now, I think 258 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 1: me and many of the dollar bears agree on that point. 259 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: We we agree right up into that point, and it's 260 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: worth it's at that point where our opinions start to diverge. UM. 261 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: A lot of the bears dollar bears um say that 262 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: the FED will absolutely bail out the rest of the world. 263 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 1: They will provide every dollar that is needed. They will 264 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: print and tell the cows come home, and that will 265 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: decrease the value of the dollar over time. And I 266 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: don't necessarily disagree with that, but I don't think it 267 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 1: will be as easy as many of these people think 268 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: it will be. I think it will not actually be 269 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: very difficult for them to do. Uh. It works completely 270 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: fine in theory. I think in actual practicality it's gonna 271 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: be a lot harder. And I think as they get 272 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: to those points where they I think they will be reactionary. 273 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 1: So they will print, but they will print in reaction 274 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: to the downturn. You know, we're talking about that exponence 275 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: of curve. As soon as it starts to come down, 276 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: they'll start to print. But I don't think they're going 277 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: to print a while it's going up. I think they're 278 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: gonna you know, so you'll go up, you'll come down, 279 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 1: they'll print, it'll go back up, it'll come down, they'll print. 280 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: And I think it's those those draw downs are going 281 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: to be extremely painful, and I think that is what's 282 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 1: going to stare step the dollar higher over the next 283 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: couple of years as those drawdowns. Yeah. Great, Well, UM, 284 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: just for everybody that's tuned in and and and watching 285 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: right now, UM, don't leave until the end, because I'm 286 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: going to ask Brent what all this means, what we 287 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 1: should be watching and maybe what we should be doing, 288 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: So make sure you stick around for that. But to 289 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: jump back to what you talked about, Um, you said 290 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: that only the FED can create more dollars and inject them. 291 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: And you talked about those foreign markets, the euro dollar, 292 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: the shadow banking system, etcetera. But I thought they create 293 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: their own dollars and that's why the US has no 294 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: idea how many dollars exist in that shadow being fair point, 295 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: fair point, I should clarify this. So there's there's there's 296 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 1: three ways that dollars can be created. The Treasury can 297 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: actually physically print new dollar bills and put those into 298 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: the system. The Treasury can inject new or the FED 299 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: can inject a new capital into the system by doing quewie. 300 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: You know, they exchange new dollar for bonds that they're 301 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 1: buying from the banks. And then the third way is 302 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: that commercial banks can extend dollar credit, right, so they 303 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 1: can get extended that way. So when I say that 304 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: only the FED can create dollars, what I mean is 305 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: they they're the only ones that can create new collateral 306 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: from zero. So if we're if if we're talking about 307 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: the euro dollar system and we get a contraction, that 308 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: is the opposite of extending new credit. So they can 309 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: extend new credit. But if they stop extending new credit 310 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: and you get this credit contraction, there is no entity 311 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: other than the FED that can go out and just 312 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 1: inject newly created collateral into the system other than the 313 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: central bank. And the FED isn't like the the e 314 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: c B cannot print dollars. The Bank of Japan cannot 315 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: print dollars. They can print euros and yen you want, 316 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: but they cannot inject new dollars. Got it, Okay? So, um, 317 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: the dollar is the reserve currency and we've exported those 318 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: all over the world, But the US has to continue 319 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: to print in order to keep the game going, keep 320 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: the charade going. UM. Maybe it's already contracted a couple 321 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: of times. Now. Recently with the pandemic, we saw like 322 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: a massive demand for dollars and there was a shortage, right, 323 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: which pushed the dollar way higher um. And then I 324 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: think the FED response was to print a lot more 325 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: for the demand um, and then it's brought the value 326 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: back down a little bit. Is that right? That's exactly right. 327 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: That's exactly what they did. And the way that they 328 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: got collateral, the way they got collateral into the system, 329 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: both domestically and off shores. Domestically, they did kiwi, so 330 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: they bought bonds from banks and gave them new cash. 331 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: The way they got it offshore was they did swap 332 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: lines with foreign central banks. So Europe would pledge euros, 333 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: we would give them dollars in exchange, and then they 334 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: could lend those out to the banks. And really what 335 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: it did is it's it's it's a psychological thing as 336 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: much as anything. If if if, if the foreign banks 337 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: know they're going to get new dollars from the e 338 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: c B or the Bank of Japan as a reasonab 339 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: to the swap lines, well then they are more likely 340 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: to extend credit, you know, and create dollars that way too, 341 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: So you know that. But but but basically, the FEDS actions, um, 342 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: you know, in March and April did stem that tide. 343 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: And we you know, it's funny. I even put out 344 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: a tweet literally the day of the dollar high, and 345 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 1: I said, Okay, anybody knew to this game, get ready, 346 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 1: because the FED is going to do something and the 347 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: dollar is gonna fall and if you're a dollar, bullet's 348 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: going to hurt, you know, So you know this is 349 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: the way it goes. And that's exactly what they did. Now. 350 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: I did not think it was gonna fall as far 351 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 1: as it has um, but it has, you know, and 352 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: it might fall further. I don't know. But what I 353 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: do know is that fundamentally nothing has changed. The problem 354 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: has not been fixed. It's just been kicked down the road. 355 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 1: Maybe they can kick it down the road for another 356 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: six months, everything kick it down for I don't know, 357 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: maybe another year. But if they continue to everything they've 358 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: done has only made the problem bigger. They haven't actually 359 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: solved the underlying issue. And so that's why I remain 360 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: of the opinion that while the FED and the other 361 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: central banks and monetary authorities can do things to stem 362 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: the tide in the short term. I still think the 363 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: potential for a dollar spike much higher than we saw 364 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: in March is still very much on the table. Yeah. 365 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: So I heard you say, UM in another interview that UM, 366 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: much like the gold bugs want to believe, or maybe 367 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: the bitcoin bugs and I've talked about many times, Um, 368 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: the death of the dollar isn't imminent and maybe not 369 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: even likely. Is that kind of what you're saying, or 370 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: is that a short term or is that even like 371 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: a mid term? Well, I think the point I want 372 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: to make is that it's inevitable. Absolutely. I listen, I'm 373 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 1: a gold bug. A lot of gold bugs don't like 374 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 1: me because I say it might not go to five 375 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: thousand dollars tomorrow. But every time I talked about it, 376 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: I say it's going to five thousand dollars. They don't 377 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 1: like it when I say it might go down before 378 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: it goes up. But I am a gold bug and 379 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 1: I and I also I like bitcoin. I think everybody 380 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: if you can afford doing bitcoin on some bitcoin or 381 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 1: a theorium or I think you have to have some 382 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 1: assets in this you know digital space if you can 383 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: afford to do so. Um, it is inevitable. This is 384 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: this is just math. It's not even hard math. It's 385 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 1: very simple math. That this system is not going to survive. Now. 386 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to last fifty days 387 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: or five years, but it's not going to survive in 388 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: its current form. Um. I just happen to think that 389 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: because of all the way the system is designed, I 390 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: think it will end by the dollar going higher rather 391 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: than lower. I completely understand. The endgame is the dollar 392 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 1: going lower, because after it goes higher and it just 393 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 1: crushes every the rest of the world, then they're going 394 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: to have to devalue it or work together to come 395 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: up with a new system or reset or a jet 396 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: debt jubilee or whatever it is. Um. So the endgame 397 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: is the dollar losing value. But I think the road 398 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: to losing value. It's kind of a ironic, but I 399 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: think I think what leads to it going lower is 400 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: its fight. If that makes sense. Yeah, it kills everything 401 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: else and then as the last one left and it 402 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: dies itself. Maybe And part of the reason, and I 403 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 1: should I should say this just real quick. Part of 404 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: the reason that the dollar going higher. Is so such 405 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: a problem is the rest of the world has borrowed, 406 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: you know, anywhere from thirteen trillion trillion in dollars. It's 407 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: again it's hard to measure because it's the shadowy, offshore 408 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 1: you know, Euro dollar system that you can't even measure. Um. 409 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 1: But the point is is that as much as people 410 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 1: hate the dollar and maybe don't like the dollar, they 411 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: have borrowed in dollars. And until it crashes, that debt 412 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: is demand for dollars. As long as the system exists, 413 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: the debt is demand for dollars. Now, if the whole 414 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: system comes down, then yeah, that demand disappears, right But 415 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: but but but the reason that disappears but that that's 416 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 1: the dollar spike and that no, that's what I'm talking 417 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 1: about anyway, go ahead, right, So the dollar met chack 418 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 1: theory is that the dollar gets stronger in the meantime, 419 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: sucks all the liquidy from the world, which then brings 420 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: asset prices it up in US dollar terms. Um. I 421 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: want to jump back into that, like I said, and 422 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: we'll chase that down to see where you think that's going. 423 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: But before we do, I just maybe wanted to ask 424 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: them maybe not trying to poke a couple more holes. 425 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: But UM, some some recent things that have been happening, 426 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: particularly UM during Trump's presidency, really starting to push back 427 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 1: on China. Um. We've always known that China held the 428 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: mass amount of US dollars, they could crash the system 429 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: anytime I wanted, and blah blah blah. But things have 430 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: been amical to say the best, right and and now 431 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: they're not. Um. We seem just recently in the last 432 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, uh, the sanctions with the Hong Kong situation, 433 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: and now UM that happening. And after that move, we 434 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: saw Hong Kong, or I should say, China, Russia, Turkey, 435 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: and Iran start doing their own trades outside. We saw 436 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: Russia say they're going to start d dollarization UM. And 437 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: potentially I mean, uh, now you know, China has surpassed 438 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: the US and oil imports UM in most consumer things, 439 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: and they could easily say hey Europe, Hey Australia, Hey Russia, 440 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: no more US dollar. Um. Do you see that happening? 441 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: And if so, does that change what could potentially happen 442 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:02,120 Speaker 1: with this milkshake? So I definitely see it happening, and 443 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: I am not uh I'm not blind to the fact 444 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: that de dollarization is happening. De dollarization is absolutely happening, 445 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,640 Speaker 1: But in my opinion, it's too little, too late. So 446 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: I can't sit here and deny that what you just 447 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 1: described is not happening. It is absolutely happening. And China 448 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: is no doubt furiously negotiating deal after deal after deal 449 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: to try to get a price in you on, rather 450 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,959 Speaker 1: than dollars. Again, I and and and do they have 451 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: power in these negotiations. Of course they have power in 452 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: these negotiations, but what they've succeeded in doing so far, 453 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: in my opinion, as a drop in the bucket to 454 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: what is needed to avert this crisis that I see coming. Again, 455 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 1: I think that they're definitely trying to do it. But 456 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 1: you know, having the desire to do something and having 457 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: the ability to actually execute it are two completely different things. 458 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: You know. I always use the example that I would 459 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 1: very much like to be able to hit the golf 460 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: ball like phil mental stism um, you you know, but 461 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: just be just because I want to do it doesn't 462 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 1: mean that I'm able to do it. Um. And the 463 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: other problem is that again, the dollar debt issued by 464 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 1: entities outside the United States is a huge part of 465 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: my thesis. So even if the rest of the world 466 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: were too, or let's say half of the rest of 467 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,199 Speaker 1: the world were just stop trading dollars, that means that 468 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: the dollar circulation would fall by half. Let's say, but 469 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: all the dollar debts still exists, so they would still 470 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: If they would still, that would mean there would be 471 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: less circulation of dollars. The supply of dollars would fall, 472 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: but the demand for dollars is still just as high 473 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: because all that debt still exists. And you know, if 474 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: you've got less supply and you've got the same level 475 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: of demand, that pushes price higher. So again, I can't. 476 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say these things can't happen. They can happen. 477 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: I don't think they're happening fast enough, um to avert 478 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,640 Speaker 1: the crisis. And even if they do start to pick up, 479 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 1: I think the U. S. Dollar debt is still exists. 480 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: So UM I just again, I can I can figure 481 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: out how we eventually, UM I can. I can figure 482 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: out how they pushed the problem down the road, and 483 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: I can figure out how eventually the dollar falls. But 484 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: in the short term, I can't figure out how they 485 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: get out of this mess without the dollar spiking. Right. 486 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: One thing I just want to remind everybody listening is 487 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: that things would be so much easier for us if 488 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: we had crystal balls. We don't. Um, and I'm guessing 489 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 1: I'm speaking for Brent, but I'm I'm guessing that he's 490 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,200 Speaker 1: probably a lot like me and other other people where 491 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: we're not trying to make predictions here. Um, it's about probabilities, right, 492 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: So we're looking at potential outcomes and then we watch 493 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: the way they progress, and then we shift and move 494 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: as we need. I mean, is that about, right, Brent? 495 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: That's right. I'll get, and I'll get. I mean, my job, 496 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: to a certain extent is a little bit ridiculous, And 497 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: it's kind of funny to say that, because I feel 498 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 1: like my job is a very serious job, but it's 499 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 1: also completely Essentially, what we have to try to do 500 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: as macro analysts is predict the future. And anybody who 501 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: thinks they can predict the future is crazy, right, I mean, 502 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: nobody can predict the future. But to your point, what 503 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: you try to do is figure out the probabilities. And 504 00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: I'll give you an example. So my whole milkshake. There 505 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: is that the US assets will rise versus the rest 506 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: of the world. Okay, and I think that will happen 507 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: because the dollar is going higher. And as a result, 508 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: I've said, own gold, own US equities for lack of 509 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: a better word, own some U S treasuries, and and 510 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: just avoid the rest of the world for now, right, 511 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: and then allocate a small portion of your portfolio to 512 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: some of these asymmetric trades that would pay off in 513 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 1: a big way if the dollar spikes. Okay, let's pretend 514 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: that I'm completely wrong on the way the dollar goes. 515 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 1: Let's pretend the dollar gets keeps going down and down 516 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 1: and down. What would that do to US equity prices, Well, 517 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: they would probably push them higher. Right, So, even even 518 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, I still think I'm in the ask 519 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 1: the right asset class. Right, And so one of the 520 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: kind of tricks in our businesses try to figure out 521 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: how much money do you make when you're right and 522 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: how much do you lose when you're wrong. So so 523 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,959 Speaker 1: in my you know, my thesis sort of has a 524 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: safety measure built into it. If I'm completely wrong on 525 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: this and the dollar just continues to fall, the real 526 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 1: estate that my client's own should continue to appreciate in 527 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: US dollar terms, the equities that they owned should continue 528 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: to appreciate in US dollar terms, and the goal that 529 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: they owned should continue to appreciate in U s dollar terms. 530 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: So in that scenario, the only thing that makes a 531 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: hit is my reputation, and I can live with that. 532 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to be wrong. But if I'm wrong, 533 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 1: I'm wrong, Well, you got it right, you would, you 534 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: would get it right. Just the reading behind it didn't 535 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: necessarily work on I guess. And that's my point, does it? 536 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: You know? Again, if you can, you have to have 537 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: risk controls in this business, and you have to be 538 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: able to check your ego. And and I've told this 539 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: to people before. You know, of course I have an ego. 540 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 1: I haven't. You know. I'm not going to deny I 541 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: have an ego. It's hard to do this job without 542 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: having an ego. But I've had to check my ego 543 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,160 Speaker 1: on several times in the past. I've had to say 544 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: I'm wrong several times in the past. And if I 545 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,239 Speaker 1: get to a point where I feel like I've been 546 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: proven wrong, I will say that I was wrong. M 547 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,679 Speaker 1: I don't think they were there yet. But it might happen, 548 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: got it. So, Um, that's a perfect segue to jump 549 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 1: back into that a little bit. So you talk about 550 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: the dollar getting stronger, sucking liquidity in um. And when 551 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 1: you say liquidity in do you mainly mean like sucking 552 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 1: investment dollars in like people wanting to invest back into 553 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: the US because it's the strongest current uh economy essentially? 554 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 1: I mean I think it'll act like a safe haven. 555 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: You know, it'll, it'll And the thing is is, you 556 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: know people talk about let's let's use gold as an example. 557 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: As gold goes higher, a lot of people want more 558 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: of it, right because it's a harbinger of danger to come. 559 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: So as you've seen gold rising over the last six months, um, 560 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 1: you know, more and more people when it's a gift 561 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,159 Speaker 1: and good which is that that that means that a 562 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: good or a product that increases in value and demand 563 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: the higher the price goes um And so you know, 564 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 1: and as that was why gold, if you were on 565 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 1: a gold standard gold, the gold price would be the 566 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 1: interest rate. In other words, as the gold price rose, 567 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: it would suck capital into it, taking capital away from 568 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 1: other endeavors. That would act as an inflationary hedge. As 569 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: the gold price fell, then dollars would flow out of 570 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 1: gold into other more productive of means. And so that 571 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: that's why the gold price would be a very good 572 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: way to manage an economy. Right um, now, for many reasons, 573 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: the government isn't going to do that as much as 574 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 1: I would like them to. But they're just not going to. 575 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: But I guess think of the dollars the same way 576 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: as as the dollar rises, you know, it sucks capital 577 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 1: from around the world into it. And and as it 578 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,640 Speaker 1: as that happens, people from the rest of the world 579 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,679 Speaker 1: start saying, holy cow, I'm losing more liquidity. The only 580 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: place that's getting in liquidity the United States. I want 581 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 1: to invest there, So they put more into it, which 582 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,880 Speaker 1: makes the dollar go even higher and sucks out even 583 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 1: so it becomes this vicious circle. Right now, we will 584 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: get to a point where the dollar will be too strong, 585 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 1: capital will flow out of it, that will go back 586 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: to the rest of the world. The dollar will come down, 587 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 1: and the rest of the world will start to rise. 588 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 1: I just think that we're going to have that big 589 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: rise in the dollar first. So when we talk about assets, 590 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: you know, one thing that I've looked at is obviously 591 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 1: the dollars lost whatever its purchasing power, and so when 592 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 1: you look at you know, real estate and gold things 593 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 1: like that, it's like, well, maybe real estate and gold 594 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 1: isn't getting more expensive, just taking more dollars to buy 595 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 1: those things. And so we know the dollar lost like 596 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: ten percent in the last couple of months, and at 597 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: the same time the prices of things went up in 598 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: dollar terms. Um, so I'm curious how they work together. 599 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,199 Speaker 1: So I would think the opposite would be true. If 600 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: the dollar is getting stronger than the asset prices should 601 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: come down. But you're saying that maybe the dollar can 602 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: get stronger and asset prices go up at the same time. Yeah, 603 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: I think this is something that that many people miss 604 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 1: and not necessarily miss. That's not the right way to 605 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: say it, but just they haven't seen it before. So 606 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 1: maybe that's just not the first thing that comes to 607 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 1: their mind, is that you can actually have inflation. Of all, 608 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: the dollar is getting stronger. Um, you know, I I 609 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 1: can prove it to you right now and again when 610 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: I stay stronger. When I talk about a stronger dollar, 611 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,959 Speaker 1: I mean versus other field currencies. Okay, I'm not necessarily 612 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: meaning and purchasing power. Sure, The point I always I'm 613 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 1: gonna take this step back real quick. The point I 614 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: say when you can you can make a fortune by 615 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: betting on the dollar is that if you find trade, 616 00:28:58,440 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: there's a number of trades out there that if I'm 617 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: right and the dollar rises against foreign currencies, in other words, 618 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 1: in the fiat world, you can make a fortune. Okay. 619 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: Now that doesn't necessarily mean in purchasing power terms. It 620 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: just means versus you know, fiat currency pairs. Now if 621 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: if if I'm right and the dollar, well, let me 622 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: just I can for the last ten years. Ten years ago, 623 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: in two thousand eighth, the dollar was priced, as an example, 624 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: around seventy five. Now, since then, the FED the national 625 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: debt has gone from six or seven trillion to twenty 626 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: six trillion, the FED balance sheet has gone from five 627 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: or six hundred billion to six or seven trillion, And 628 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: over that time, the dollar d X, Y and X 629 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 1: went And I would argue most people would say that 630 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: their cost of living went up over the last ten years, 631 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: whether it's healthcare or tuition, whatever, whatever it is. But 632 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 1: since two thousand and eight, when the dollar was seventy five, 633 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 1: mid seventies it's now nine mid nineties, you know, or 634 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 1: loan nineties. However you measure it. The dollar has risen 635 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: versus fied ot currencies over the last ten years, spite 636 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 1: massive printing, despite massive balance sheet expansion, despite you know, quee, um, 637 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: all of the despite cost of living going up, the 638 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 1: dollar has risen. So uh. And look at asset prices, 639 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: stock crisis have gone up three or four times over 640 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: that time period. So that's that's that's the point where 641 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 1: you can get and you can get asset inflation and 642 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 1: some consumer price inflation and the dollar going higher together. 643 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: So this idea that you have to have the dollar 644 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 1: going lower in order to get inflation is just demonstrably wrong. 645 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: Sure so um, then that brings us back to like 646 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: now working our way down from the top down. Now 647 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: we get into like individual like asset classes, I would guess. 648 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 1: So like, okay, so the dollar is getting stronger. People 649 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 1: want to be parked in dollars. People want to be 650 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 1: in the United States, I guess the United States markets, 651 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: maybe even real estate equities, et cetera. But what about 652 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 1: international assets like golden bitcoin? Why would they benefit from 653 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 1: a stronger dollar or well at all? Well, I think 654 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: they would because for for two reasons, I think we're 655 00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 1: going to get into a point where the dollar and 656 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 1: biting in gold all rise together because I think they 657 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 1: will be seen as safe haven currencies or assets away 658 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 1: from this global storm. And you've got to remember if 659 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 1: if if I'm right, and the dollar goes higher, it's 660 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 1: gonna put extreme pressure on the rest of the world. 661 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: And so from just a from a crisis standpoint, people 662 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: tend to go to gold in a crisis. So from 663 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: that perspective, they would go to gold. And if I'm 664 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: right and the dollar goal is going higher, then that 665 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: means the ends going down, the real's going down, the 666 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 1: euros going down, which means gold is going up even 667 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: more in those foreign currency terms than it is in dollars. 668 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: And the same thing with bitcoin. So I I you know, 669 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 1: I I'm a big believer in that everybody should own 670 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: gold for sure, physical gold if you can, if you 671 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: can afford silver and bitcoin, and maybe some of the miners, 672 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 1: and you want to take that extra risk, but then 673 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 1: do that. I just have bullion right now. I'm not 674 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,959 Speaker 1: in the miners right now. Um, but it doesn't mean 675 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: that it doesn't have a place in the portfolio. Um, 676 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 1: but I again, I think, you know, I think that 677 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: the dollar's strength is going to create this vicious storm 678 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 1: where but want even more of the things other than 679 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: their own currency. So so that means gold, um at 680 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: US equities, US assets, fixed income, and you know, maybe 681 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:14,560 Speaker 1: a bitcoin or you know some of these other assets. Okay, Um, yeah, 682 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 1: So I mean it definitely makes sense. And and in 683 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 1: that scenario you could see how um, dollar up, dollar down, 684 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: bitcoin and gold are probably gonna do really well. Especially 685 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: I mean, we saw a gold hit new all time 686 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: highs in almost every currency out there besides the dollar 687 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: quite a while ago, and then just today today in 688 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: a new all time high in the dollar today. So 689 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 1: we're we're kind of in this period where the the 690 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: gold is rising in every currency right now, right and 691 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: and because everybody's seeing seeing what's happening. Um, what about 692 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 1: real estate? You mentioned real estate. Um, I've talked about 693 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: real estate quite a number of times. I saw you 694 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 1: were on my friend Jason Hartman show, So shout out 695 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: to Jason, um and he we've talked about real estate 696 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 1: quite a bit. Um. A lot of people just say, well, 697 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, fifty people out of work, the economy 698 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 1: is going to hell in hambasket. There's no way real 699 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 1: estate can continue to prosper. But I think that some 700 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: sectors could. And I think you may agree with that. Yeah, 701 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: And the first thing I'm gonna say, you get you 702 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 1: and Jason are better real estate experts than I am, 703 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 1: so that you know, real estate is not my area 704 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 1: of expertise. But you know, I don't. I mean it's 705 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 1: first of all, if I'm wrong and the dollar goes down, 706 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 1: then real estate is gonna be a very good place 707 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 1: to be. Um. But even if I'm right, um, I don't. 708 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if real estate is gonna return the 709 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: same way have returned the same way it has for 710 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: the last ten twenty years. But I don't necessarily think 711 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: the real estate is gonna crash either. So as a 712 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: portfolio diversifier, as a hard asset, you know, against the 713 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 1: currency crisis, I think it can be good. Um. You know, 714 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 1: And you know I was up in Tahoua a couple 715 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 1: of months ago. We all went up there, uh, you know, 716 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: during this the quarantine. And you know, I was talking 717 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 1: to a local guy and he's I was asking him 718 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 1: what the real estate market was like and He's like, 719 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: you know, it's really starting to pick up, and it's crazy. 720 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: Just in the last two months, Um, they've gone from 721 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: too many buyers to you know, the multiple buyers on 722 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 1: all properties because people are leaving the cities. You know, 723 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,320 Speaker 1: if you're if one of the reasons you live in 724 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 1: a city so that you can go out and enjoy 725 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: the city. You can go to restaurants, go to bars, 726 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 1: you know, go to the museum, go to a theater 727 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: or whatever it is. But if you can't do those things, 728 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 1: there's no there's no point in paying three or four 729 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 1: times the rent or the mortgage as you could if 730 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,320 Speaker 1: you live in Tahoe or Bend, Oregon or Boise or 731 00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 1: whatever wherever it is, right, So, so I can definitely 732 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: see areas like that continue to do well from real estate. Now, 733 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,760 Speaker 1: another question, when you're looking at the big macroeconomic picture, 734 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 1: um and and and specifically talking about the US, potentially 735 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: you're doing really well. I guess that what you think, UM, 736 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 1: what about the economy? I mean the economy right now, 737 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 1: we know the economy of the markets seem to be 738 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 1: completely disconnected. UM, but at some point doesn't the economy 739 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 1: have to get back on track? With this and um, 740 00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,399 Speaker 1: and and just to add, I mean, it looks like 741 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 1: the future of the economy isn't super bright, especially depending 742 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,920 Speaker 1: on what happens with the next presidential election and so forth. 743 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: So do you look at that matter. We don't need to. Oh, yeah, no, 744 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 1: I absolutely do. And so this brings up two good points. 745 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 1: And so the first thing I should say is when 746 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: I talk about US asset prices going higher in US 747 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 1: equities in particular, I fully believe we're gonna have all 748 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 1: time highs in US equities, but that I think that's 749 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,280 Speaker 1: over the next two to three years. I don't necessarily 750 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: think that's over the next two to three months or 751 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 1: even six to nine months. I actually think it's more 752 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: than likely that we're gonna have another downturn. Um. I 753 00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 1: think it will happen leading up to the election, but 754 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't happen until the first quarter or something. 755 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have another downturn on equities. I 756 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: don't know if we'll go down to the levels we 757 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:33,600 Speaker 1: saw in March, but I think we're gonna have another 758 00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,879 Speaker 1: hard sell off. So tactically, even though I own US 759 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 1: equities and have clients that own equity we would, you know, 760 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 1: we we have some hedges on them because we we 761 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: think we're gonna we're gonna come back down. Um. But 762 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 1: the other thing I want to say, uh, is that 763 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,280 Speaker 1: you know, in the very first time I ever started 764 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 1: talking about this milkshake theory is I said, US equities 765 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: are good. Don't buy US equities because things are good, 766 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: by US equities beau as things are bad. And I said, 767 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:03,880 Speaker 1: this is not a story that ends well, It's a 768 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 1: story that ends horribly. And I don't think that US 769 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,319 Speaker 1: equities are going to go higher because the US is 770 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 1: doing great. I think US equities are going to do 771 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,719 Speaker 1: higher because the rest of the world is doing horribly. 772 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,600 Speaker 1: So again it you can get this massive inflationary move 773 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 1: in the US of you know, and and some goods 774 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: will even go higher, prices will rise in inflationary terms. 775 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: And my point is, I think we're going to get 776 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,800 Speaker 1: to a point where US equities, big blue chip dividend 777 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 1: paying US equities will be seen as a store of value. 778 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 1: And I think valuations will go through the roof. They 779 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 1: already are through the roof. And you know, I think 780 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 1: you know, the Microsoft's, the Google's, the Apples, the you know, 781 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,440 Speaker 1: Amazon's I think valuations could double from here over next 782 00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,400 Speaker 1: two or three years, which I completely understand sounds ridiculous, 783 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 1: and I agree it is ridiculous. I just think it's 784 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,480 Speaker 1: gonna happen anyway. Um Now, I think of when you 785 00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,720 Speaker 1: when you talk about, you know, the prices of stocks 786 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: double in our stock or goal doubling. Is what does 787 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: that mean for the dollar? Right? Like? Okay, so so 788 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 1: gold hits ten thousand dollars and ounce, but like, what 789 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 1: does that mean bitcoins a hundred thousand dollars? But what 790 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 1: does that mean for the dollar? Right? Well, again, I 791 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 1: think I think it goes up in purchasing power versus 792 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,920 Speaker 1: other FID currencies, but it might not go up in 793 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 1: purchasing power versus gold or bitcoin or land or whatever. 794 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,720 Speaker 1: I mean, those those those could go up even higher. 795 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 1: So again it's all relative, um, you know, And again 796 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 1: this is all gonna end really really badly. You know, 797 00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,360 Speaker 1: I'm not this Pollyanna who's saying put your head in 798 00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,000 Speaker 1: the stand biosequities, because everything are great. Things are not great, 799 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 1: things are horrible, and they're probably gonna get worse. But 800 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 1: I just think one of the one of the knock 801 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,400 Speaker 1: on effects of things getting worse as US equities going higher. 802 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:44,880 Speaker 1: So really, if I if I kind of want to 803 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,879 Speaker 1: summarize it, then I'm guessing that like, um, the rise 804 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 1: we see in the dollar strength and the equities and 805 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 1: all the you know other assets, gold, bitcoins, et cetera, 806 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: isn't so much dependent on the US doing well. It's 807 00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:00,719 Speaker 1: dependent on the US doing better than everybody exactly. That. 808 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,280 Speaker 1: That's absolutely right. It's a it's a relative game. Global 809 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 1: capital has to go somewhere. I think on a relative basis, 810 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 1: they will choose the United States more than the rest 811 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 1: of the world. And and we're just continue to see 812 00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,760 Speaker 1: more and more reasons why nobody should be holding dollars 813 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,200 Speaker 1: or cash or whatever FIAT in their accounts, right, so 814 00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,799 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to put into some type of asset. Yeah. Yeah. 815 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 1: Now again I think in the short term, I think 816 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 1: deflation is the bigger scare in the short term, so 817 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 1: I think we will have another pullback and asset prices 818 00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 1: both in the U s and and globally. But I 819 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 1: think after that then maybe it's just off to the 820 00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 1: race is higher. Yeah. So, um, that's that's great. I 821 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,400 Speaker 1: appreciate that. Now to put put you a little bit 822 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,760 Speaker 1: more in the hot seat. UM, if you've you've already 823 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,719 Speaker 1: kind of hinted to you know, well, I don't I 824 00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 1: don't want to say hot seat, but I know we're 825 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,319 Speaker 1: not let me let me, let me let me readjust yeah, 826 00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I know we're not trying to predict things, 827 00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 1: but just you know what you're seeing, what your thesis 828 00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,120 Speaker 1: is or whatever you've already talked about. You know, a 829 00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 1: potential downturn maybe not as bad as March, happening sometime 830 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 1: in the next several months to six months or something 831 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,600 Speaker 1: like that, six or nine months, maybe three to nine months, um, 832 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 1: and then the dollar and assets going higher over the 833 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,399 Speaker 1: next two to three years. Give us kind of like 834 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,880 Speaker 1: uh the big asset sectors and time frames that you 835 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,919 Speaker 1: that you think as of right now? If again, yeah, 836 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,440 Speaker 1: so I think very short term, I would want to 837 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,040 Speaker 1: be in short term fixed income cash. I have equities, 838 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,160 Speaker 1: but again, their heads, so if they go higher, that's fine, 839 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,279 Speaker 1: if they go down, that's fine, I would you know, 840 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,879 Speaker 1: I I think gold will probably have a pullback here, 841 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 1: might go hired over the next couple of days, but 842 00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,000 Speaker 1: I think it's going to have a pullback before you know, 843 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,719 Speaker 1: it goes keeps going to all time highs um. I 844 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:35,800 Speaker 1: think that the emerging markets are in a lot of trouble. 845 00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:37,359 Speaker 1: The last thing I would want to own right now 846 00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,080 Speaker 1: is the emerging markets. The last thing I'd want to 847 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 1: own is anything in China. I think Hong Kong and 848 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: Turkey are on the edge of chaos. Um. So I think, 849 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,879 Speaker 1: you know, just being very careful over the next six 850 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 1: to nine months is probably the best thing to do. 851 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,120 Speaker 1: Try to avoid if you don't have the ability to 852 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 1: try to make money off the chaos, just try not 853 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,000 Speaker 1: to get killed in the chaos, survived the chaos, and 854 00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,080 Speaker 1: then after that, you know how then and then after that, 855 00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,880 Speaker 1: I think I would want to to be you know that. 856 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,239 Speaker 1: I think that's when the quote unquote milkshake theory really 857 00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 1: starts to play out, because I think that's when the 858 00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,560 Speaker 1: dollar will rise, US assets will rise, and the rest 859 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,560 Speaker 1: of the world will like I think Canada is in 860 00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,680 Speaker 1: very big trouble. I think they're gonna have a tremendous 861 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,480 Speaker 1: problem with their real estate I think Australia the same thing. 862 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,360 Speaker 1: I think they are going to have tremendous problem with 863 00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 1: their real estate markets and it will affect their currencies 864 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:27,520 Speaker 1: and there and the their their sovereign bonds. Ultimately, what 865 00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,839 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have is a sovereign sovereign bond 866 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,200 Speaker 1: and sovereign currency crisis over the next two to three years. 867 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,480 Speaker 1: And as as as investors around the world decide that 868 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:41,040 Speaker 1: they don't want to own sovereign bonds off of which 869 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,600 Speaker 1: they're never going to get paid back, that money will 870 00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:46,719 Speaker 1: find its way into US equities. So then if I'm 871 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,239 Speaker 1: if I'm deciphering that correctly, sometime over the next six 872 00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:53,080 Speaker 1: to nine months, maybe continuing to bubble a little bit higher, 873 00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,719 Speaker 1: maybe not shooting too higher UM, probably some sort of 874 00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: a correction, maybe not as bad as March in the 875 00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,719 Speaker 1: sixth and nine month range UM. And after that point 876 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,440 Speaker 1: then maybe a pretty consistent client for the next four 877 00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 1: or thirty six months before the whole world basically implodes 878 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,240 Speaker 1: and crashes, that's right. And when the whole world implodes 879 00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,120 Speaker 1: in crashes, where do we want to be? Then you 880 00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,040 Speaker 1: want to go buy E M and International and get 881 00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,399 Speaker 1: out of the US because when the doll that that 882 00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 1: that that will be the high I believe that will 883 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 1: be the high of the US, the high of the dollar, 884 00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,080 Speaker 1: and so then you go around what you take all 885 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:27,560 Speaker 1: your profits that you made in the U S and 886 00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,960 Speaker 1: you go deploy them and you buy you know, beat 887 00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 1: up properties in Italy and Argentina and Brazil and Australia 888 00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,759 Speaker 1: and you know, Hong Kong and well, I don't know 889 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,480 Speaker 1: if you want to be it depends on what's going 890 00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,680 Speaker 1: on with China at that point. But basically you want 891 00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: to go around and you you want to buy up 892 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,200 Speaker 1: all the things that are in pieces, and you want 893 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,480 Speaker 1: to sell the things that's overvalued, which is the US. Yeah, 894 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,960 Speaker 1: all right, Well, I know we're kind of running out 895 00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,640 Speaker 1: of time. We're gonna wrap it up. I would like 896 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 1: to just dive into one more little topic. And I 897 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: know this is a very top touchy topic for a 898 00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,680 Speaker 1: lot of people. Um, And really, UM, I think you 899 00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:02,600 Speaker 1: can't really understand macro without understanding politics to at least 900 00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,920 Speaker 1: some some extent, right, And maybe you don't have to 901 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 1: make your belief known or even agree with one side, 902 00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,759 Speaker 1: but you have to understand the arguments and things that 903 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,960 Speaker 1: are being proposed. Right. And so we obviously have an 904 00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:17,000 Speaker 1: election cycle coming up. Um. I mean you could argue 905 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:21,719 Speaker 1: that who no matter who wins, like the game goes on, right. Um, 906 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,920 Speaker 1: but I look at like, uh, you know, if if 907 00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,560 Speaker 1: Biden wins, he's already said he's going to take away 908 00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,920 Speaker 1: a bunch of tax breaks, increased taxes across the board, 909 00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:35,319 Speaker 1: which I think would obviously hurt in the investment landscape. Um. 910 00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,759 Speaker 1: You know, some some people have said that we see 911 00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: the stock market dropped by ten percent just off of 912 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,560 Speaker 1: that alone. And then on top of it, you have 913 00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,239 Speaker 1: like you know, his AOC and Sanders group wanted to 914 00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,440 Speaker 1: push like a green New Deal, which if they had 915 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,080 Speaker 1: their way, you could get rid of airlines. I mean, 916 00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,360 Speaker 1: that's one point five trillion dollars plus it would add 917 00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 1: twenty to ninety trillion dollars of spending. Um. I guess 918 00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,560 Speaker 1: that type of stuff. I mean, and there's a legitimate 919 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,479 Speaker 1: chance that that stuff actually happens. Um, does that fall 920 00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,279 Speaker 1: into like your I mean, that's that's three years out, 921 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,959 Speaker 1: three years out plus kind of thing. Yeah, So I 922 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,400 Speaker 1: will I will say that. You know, it's funny. I 923 00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,480 Speaker 1: did an interview a couple of days or maybe a 924 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,280 Speaker 1: week before the last election in two thousand and sixteen, 925 00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 1: and I said I thought Trump was gonna win. And 926 00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:17,279 Speaker 1: the reason I thought he was gonna win then is 927 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,280 Speaker 1: I have a lot of friends and family in the Midwest, 928 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,319 Speaker 1: and you know, I'm just talking to them. I just 929 00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,640 Speaker 1: I couldn't nobody was going to vote for Hillary that 930 00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:26,719 Speaker 1: I talked to back there, despite all the polls. And 931 00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:30,400 Speaker 1: so I thought that there was this undercurrent of you know, 932 00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,040 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, that that was going 933 00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,239 Speaker 1: to ground swell, that was gonna have Trump point. I 934 00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:37,440 Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be close. But I thought he 935 00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,560 Speaker 1: went and you know, and that's what happened. And I 936 00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,359 Speaker 1: think that Trump is going to win again this time, 937 00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,600 Speaker 1: but I'm much less certain this time than I was 938 00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:48,360 Speaker 1: last time. I think, uh, you know, I think he 939 00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,640 Speaker 1: has done some good things with regards to China, but 940 00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 1: he you know, he's handled uh this whole um, not 941 00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,359 Speaker 1: just the COVID but he the protests. I think more 942 00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,400 Speaker 1: than anything, I think he has handled not well, you know, 943 00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:05,040 Speaker 1: and the timing could not be much worse. Um. And 944 00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,880 Speaker 1: so I think it's gonna be close. I think it. 945 00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:09,600 Speaker 1: I do think he'll win, but I think it's gonna 946 00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,839 Speaker 1: be close. Now. I think if Trump wins, that would 947 00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:16,000 Speaker 1: probably be better for the dollar in the markets in general. 948 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,440 Speaker 1: And I think if Biden. You know again you mentioned 949 00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:21,960 Speaker 1: that the popular opinion is that Biden wins, the market 950 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,440 Speaker 1: crashes because of his tax policies, and and there I 951 00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:26,719 Speaker 1: kind of get that. But you know a lot of 952 00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,000 Speaker 1: people said that when Trump was gonna win too, you know, 953 00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,000 Speaker 1: they said, if Trump wins, the market's going to crash, 954 00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:32,759 Speaker 1: and dada da da, And you know it didn't. So 955 00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,080 Speaker 1: but he proposed he proposed tax breaks and incentives or 956 00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:40,279 Speaker 1: business and and he proposed getting rid of two regulations 957 00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:42,719 Speaker 1: for every new one, which he did eight, where now 958 00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:44,520 Speaker 1: we have one saying we're gonna give you more burdens 959 00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,880 Speaker 1: and take away. So it's it's a little different. Absolutely, 960 00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:50,239 Speaker 1: it absolutely is different. So you know, if if if 961 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,319 Speaker 1: Trump wins, I think that would probably better be better 962 00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,080 Speaker 1: for the dollar initially, um I largely, I don't know 963 00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,719 Speaker 1: if it matters too much in the big picture. I 964 00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,760 Speaker 1: think in the in the in the first six months, 965 00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,399 Speaker 1: it might matter. At the first six to nine months, 966 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:06,719 Speaker 1: it might matter. Um But I think, you know, regardless 967 00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:08,160 Speaker 1: of who wins, they're going to print a lot of 968 00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,120 Speaker 1: dollars over the next couple of years. But the euro 969 00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:11,680 Speaker 1: is gonna be They're gonna print a lot of euros. 970 00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,200 Speaker 1: They're gonna print a lot of yen. Um, you know, 971 00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,080 Speaker 1: the one the point I wanted to make with Trump earlier. 972 00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:18,920 Speaker 1: But I think he's done some good things on China's 973 00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,200 Speaker 1: I think, regardless of who wins, one thing that I 974 00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,880 Speaker 1: think Trump has done well is he's he's brought to 975 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,560 Speaker 1: the level of consciousness that that maybe China, our our 976 00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,359 Speaker 1: friendship with China was not to our betterment right and 977 00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,359 Speaker 1: perhaps to our detriment. And regardless of who gets in 978 00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,359 Speaker 1: and who is president, whose secretary of State, I don't 979 00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,160 Speaker 1: think the next administration can go easy on China. So 980 00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,239 Speaker 1: I think that kind of that that horse has left 981 00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,040 Speaker 1: the barn. I think whoever is in, you know, we 982 00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,239 Speaker 1: we've gone to this G two world with China on 983 00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,440 Speaker 1: one side in the US on the other. And I 984 00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,560 Speaker 1: don't see that rehearsing. Yeah, yeah, alright, Well, I think 985 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,520 Speaker 1: that would be short term pain but long term gain 986 00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,919 Speaker 1: if if that happens. But but I kind of hope 987 00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,239 Speaker 1: to see that happen. But we'll wrap it up with that. 988 00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,920 Speaker 1: I appreciate you've given us so much time already. It's 989 00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:06,120 Speaker 1: a very um, I don't want to say interesting. I mean, 990 00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:07,680 Speaker 1: it's very believable. It's kind of the way that I 991 00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,040 Speaker 1: see things I I have. I agree with you. I 992 00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,680 Speaker 1: think there's um definitely some things to watch that could 993 00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:16,120 Speaker 1: change things. But uh, it seems seems to be the 994 00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:17,839 Speaker 1: way we always have. You always have to be ready 995 00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,600 Speaker 1: to be wrong right and you know, we'll just have 996 00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,400 Speaker 1: to see how it plays out now, Brent Um, where 997 00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,560 Speaker 1: would people um want to keep up with you? Where's 998 00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,279 Speaker 1: a good place you want to send people? Sure? So 999 00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,120 Speaker 1: on My contact information is listed on my website. It's 1000 00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,160 Speaker 1: just a landing page with contact info. But if you 1001 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,000 Speaker 1: go to Santiago Capital dot com, um, feel free to 1002 00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,279 Speaker 1: email me, feel free to call me. I always tell 1003 00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,440 Speaker 1: people feel if I don't get back to your right away, 1004 00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,000 Speaker 1: it's not because you're bothering me. It's just because I'm swamped. 1005 00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,839 Speaker 1: So don't feel like, you know, email me again. I'll 1006 00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:46,960 Speaker 1: try to get back to you. If it takes me 1007 00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,600 Speaker 1: a little while, I apologize. I'm also very active on Twitter. UM. 1008 00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,400 Speaker 1: You can look me up Santiago Capital on Twitter. UM. 1009 00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:55,799 Speaker 1: You know, I do a lot of stuff there and 1010 00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:57,680 Speaker 1: then I do a number of these podcasts with with 1011 00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,520 Speaker 1: people like you, and you know, I'm happy to come 1012 00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,080 Speaker 1: back at some point if you want to talk again. 1013 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,399 Speaker 1: And I appreciate you having me on today. Yeah. Great, 1014 00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,200 Speaker 1: So for everybody, I'll go ahead and linked to his 1015 00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,640 Speaker 1: his stuff, his Twitter, and his website in the show notes. 1016 00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,799 Speaker 1: Um so you can look for there. But um yeah, 1017 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,279 Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and wrap it up with that again. Brand, 1018 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,480 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Awesome. Thank you for 1019 00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,279 Speaker 1: having me. I appreciate it awesome. Thank you for having me. 1020 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:17,800 Speaker 1: I appreciate it awesome. Thank you for having me. I 1021 00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,640 Speaker 1: appreciate it awesome. Thank you for having me. Appreciate