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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roun Auto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition. You're on Bloomberg Radio, on

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Speaker 2: the satellite and on YouTube, where you can find us

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Speaker 2: right now by searching Bloomberg Business News Live. I'm Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, and we're just about twelve hours out

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Speaker 2: now from landfall as we track Hurricane Milton on its

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Speaker 2: way to the Gulf coast of Florida, just thirteen days

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Speaker 2: now after we did the same thing with Hurricane Helene.

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Speaker 2: The President and Vice President Joe Biden Kamala Harris are

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Speaker 2: being brief right now as a matter of fact, on

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Speaker 2: preparations for Milton, on recovery efforts from Helene, and we

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Speaker 2: are going to hear from Joe Biden later today, just

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Speaker 2: to set the baseline on where everybody's At five point

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Speaker 2: thirty pm that'll happen in the late edition of Balance

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Speaker 2: of Power will bring you remarks from Joe Biden as

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Speaker 2: he addresses the nation on this day, we're expecting the

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Speaker 2: storm to land. He'll be holding forth from the Roosevelt Room.

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Speaker 2: Kareeine John Pierre will brief before that happens. And the

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Speaker 2: candidates are on the road today. Kamala Harris heads to

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Speaker 2: Vegas tonight. Donald Trump in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Joe Biden's hometown

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Speaker 2: also in Redding, Pennsylvania. Later on, He's got a two

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Speaker 2: for today in the critical swing state. Jd Vance fresh

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Speaker 2: Off is op ed about the storm, criticizing the administration.

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Speaker 2: Is in Arizona, Tucson for a rally mesa later on

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Speaker 2: for a town hall, and Tim Walls is also in

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Speaker 2: the swing state of Arizona. He's with Reuben Diego of

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Speaker 2: course running for Senate, and a man named Jim McCain.

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Speaker 2: Interesting lineup today. So let's get to the story at hand,

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Speaker 2: and that's Milton. Of course. We're at Cap four now

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Speaker 2: and just barely underneath what is a Cap five storm

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Speaker 2: on its way to west central Florida overnight tonight. We're

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Speaker 2: talking about a fifteen foot storm surge. We're talking about

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Speaker 2: six to eighteen inches of rain, winds topping one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty miles an hour. Governor Ron de Santis back

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Speaker 2: in front of people for a storm briefing earlier today

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Speaker 2: in Florida.

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Speaker 3: Here he is, Hurricane Milton is still a major, very

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Speaker 3: strong hurricane. It's currently a Category four hurricane with maximum

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Speaker 3: sustained winds of one hundred and fifty five miles per hour.

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Speaker 3: That is just a whisker shy of a category five.

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Speaker 3: And while there is the hope that it will weaken

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Speaker 3: more before landfall, there is high confidence that this hurricane

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Speaker 3: is going to pack a major, major punch and do

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Speaker 3: an awful lot of damage undeniable.

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Speaker 2: At this point, DeSantis has activated thousands of National Guard

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Speaker 2: troops standing by to respond, of course, hundreds of thousands,

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Speaker 2: if not, maybe we learn a couple of million people

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Speaker 2: have evacuated the storm zone already. FEMA is already there.

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Speaker 2: Of course. We talked to Craig Fugate, the former administrator,

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Speaker 2: last evening on Balance of Power, suggesting that if there's

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Speaker 2: any silver lining here, and I don't mean to be

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Speaker 2: too cute about this is a terribly devastating storm that

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Speaker 2: is about to hit Florida. But the fact is FEMA

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Speaker 2: is already there. The equipment, the people are there from Helene,

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Speaker 2: and we'll hunker down and be ready to respond as

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Speaker 2: soon as the storm passes. David Baker covers climate and

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Speaker 2: Energy for us here at Bloomberg and joins us now

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Speaker 2: with his view on this historic storm. David, it's great

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Speaker 2: to have you with us in our San Francisco bureau.

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Speaker 2: What are you going to be watching as the storm

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Speaker 2: makes landfall tonight.

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Speaker 4: Two main things. We're looking for the track exactly where

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Speaker 4: it strikes land, and we are looking at that wind speed. Now,

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Speaker 4: the wind speed has been moving around quite a lot

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Speaker 4: over the last day. It's grown at times, dipped at times,

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Speaker 4: but it's still going to stay in major hurricane territory.

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Speaker 4: It's not going to drop out of that category at all,

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Speaker 4: and it's pushing a lot of water right towards the

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Speaker 4: west coast Florida. What we're really looking for in terms

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Speaker 4: of landfall is whether or not it lands north of Tampa,

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Speaker 4: which would be the worst case scenario, or south of Tampa,

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Speaker 4: which would be bad, but it might spare the city

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Speaker 4: some of the damage they'd experienced if it lands north.

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Speaker 4: Because if it comes in just north of the city,

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Speaker 4: the wall of water that it's shoving at the coast,

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Speaker 4: will go right into Tampa Bay, and that means a

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Speaker 4: lot of property damage.

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Speaker 2: Understood, So our viewers are on YouTube are looking at

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Speaker 2: a map of Florida as you're talking here, David. What

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Speaker 2: would it mean then, if the storm came in south

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Speaker 2: of Tampa. Is that dodging a bullet or still massive

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Speaker 2: destruction just on a slightly smaller scale.

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Speaker 4: Fortunately, it's probably the latter. I mean you're still going

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Speaker 4: to see a lot of flooding, a lot of destroyed

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Speaker 4: or damaged homes, and that the destruction could go very

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Speaker 4: far inland as well. We are most concerned with this

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Speaker 4: hurricane about the storm surge and the flooding along the coast.

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Speaker 4: But it's a big storm with very strong winds. When

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Speaker 4: strong enough to actually just knock down your house unless

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Speaker 4: you've got something very strong in terms of your own home.

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Speaker 4: So that's going to extend well into the state, not

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Speaker 4: just along the coast.

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Speaker 2: What are the chances of this strengthening back to cap

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Speaker 2: five since it's so close to that level, David, And

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen after it makes landfall. These models

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Speaker 2: show the storm crossing the center of Florida and touching

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Speaker 2: the East coast, what form or what strength would we

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Speaker 2: be showing by then.

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Speaker 4: So at the moment, it looks like the storm's top

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Speaker 4: winds are going to weaken a bit before it strikes Land,

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Speaker 4: weaken a bit more than they are right from what

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Speaker 4: they've done so far. We don't at the moment think

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Speaker 4: it's going to land as a Cat five, and in fact,

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Speaker 4: there's a possibility it will be back down to a

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Speaker 4: Category three. But I mean category three is still considered

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Speaker 4: a major hurricane. It's not a small storm right now.

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Speaker 4: It's getting kind of beaten up by some wind shear

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Speaker 4: in the upper atmosphere that's knocking down those top speeds

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Speaker 4: a bit, but it is still a very powerful storm

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Speaker 4: with a lot of water in front of it. It's

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Speaker 4: expected to go across the Peninsula and re emerge into

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Speaker 4: the Atlantic. Now, how organized it will still be at

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Speaker 4: that point is a big open question. If it's able

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Speaker 4: to regather strength, we could be dealing with problems with

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Speaker 4: us for a little while.

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Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could join us, David. I'd love

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Speaker 2: to check in with you tomorrow if you're still at

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Speaker 2: the desk. David Baker covering climate and energy for Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: and our storm expert today on Balance of Power. This

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Speaker 2: is a scary moment. We'll be tracking, of course, the

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Speaker 2: arrival of that storm and the response to it, knowing

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Speaker 2: as well that there is in some cases an unfortunate

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Speaker 2: political side to this, which we'll be talking about with

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Speaker 2: our political panel a little bit later on this hour.

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Speaker 2: Many thanks to David Baker. Producer James tells us. By

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Speaker 2: the way, Tampa officials are holding an emergency management briefing

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Speaker 2: right now as well, and we'll let you know if

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Speaker 2: any additional news comes out of that. With the closing

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Speaker 2: window here, the closing window of opportunity for people to evacuate.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 5: We are casting our eyes on Florida, which is bracing

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Speaker 5: for what is being described as a once in a

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Speaker 5: century storm as Hurricane Milton prepares to make landfall or

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Speaker 5: everybody prepares for its landfall that could come late this evening.

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Speaker 5: We know eleven counties have been evacuated millions of people

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Speaker 5: because lives are going to be dangerous. We have heard

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Speaker 5: very directly from the Mayor of Tampa herself. She says,

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Speaker 5: if you do not evacuate and you're in one of

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Speaker 5: those zones, you will die. And that is the serious

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Speaker 5: nature of this potential disaster that we're discussing here, Joe.

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Speaker 5: Not just the wind, as this has now been downgraded

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Speaker 5: again to a Category four still incredibly strong winds, not

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Speaker 5: necessarily Category five level.

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Speaker 6: But it's the.

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Speaker 5: Water and the storm surge that could result from this.

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Speaker 2: That's what we're hearing and why many are hoping that

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Speaker 2: this storm takes a path that goes south of Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 2: Either way, it's going to be very difficult here with

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Speaker 2: hundreds of thousands of people already evacuated, Governor Ron De

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Speaker 2: Santis activating thousands of National Guard troops, and following our

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Speaker 2: conversation with Craig Fugate last evening, the former FEMA administrator,

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Speaker 2: if there's any silver lining here having two back to

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Speaker 2: back storms, it's the fact that there are thousands of

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Speaker 2: FEMA workers already in Florida and all of the equipment

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Speaker 2: that they brought with them. They'll be hunkering down along

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Speaker 2: with everyone else there. Kaylee, we're looking at landfall just

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Speaker 2: after midnight. Is the current track. Cat four according to

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Speaker 2: the National Hurricane Center, and Bob Henson, meteorologist and journalists

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Speaker 2: with y L Climate Connections, joins us now with his

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Speaker 2: eyes on the storm as well. Bob, thanks for being

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Speaker 2: with us here. When we talk about category four versus

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Speaker 2: Category five? Is there any difference in your mind when

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Speaker 2: it comes to storm.

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Speaker 6: Surge in this case, not really. You know, the storm

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Speaker 6: surges is the cumulative surge produced over the time that

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Speaker 6: the hurricane is approaching the coast. And so we've had

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Speaker 6: a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico for more

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Speaker 6: than two days now, Cat five two times, which is

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Speaker 6: extremely unusual. Revived last night to Cat five strength, So

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Speaker 6: that water is baked in, it's pushing toward the coast,

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Speaker 6: and the winds may decrease to Pat three level by

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Speaker 6: the time it gets to the coast, but the wind

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Speaker 6: field is also expanding, so you've got a larger area

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Speaker 6: of winds that are going to be more than strong

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Speaker 6: enough to bring down trees and power lines. So there's

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Speaker 6: just going to be all kinds of unfortunately destruction over

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Speaker 6: a large area, and the storm surge is pretty much

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Speaker 6: baked in at this.

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Speaker 5: Point well, and that's why in so many of these

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Speaker 5: areas people have been told to evacuate or risk their

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Speaker 5: lives if they stay. Bob, Can we talk about the

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Speaker 5: speed of this storm as well, because we've seen in

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Speaker 5: hurricane seasons past that often is if a storm sits

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Speaker 5: over one area too long and is raining for longer,

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Speaker 5: producing more water, that that can cause a lot of

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Speaker 5: the catastrophic damage as well. Is this going to hit

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Speaker 5: hard and fast or is this going to be sitting

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Speaker 5: over the western coast for some time before it moves

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Speaker 5: across the rest of the state.

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Speaker 6: Well, the good news is it's a fast moving storm.

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Speaker 6: It's right now between fifteen and twenty miles an hour.

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Speaker 6: It will be reaching the coast sometime between six pm

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Speaker 6: and midnight tonight, maybe around nine or ten, moving across

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Speaker 6: the state. By tomorrow morning, it will already be off

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Speaker 6: the coast, probably somewhere between Melbourne and Daytona Beach now

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Speaker 6: at the Atlantics, so it will be versing the state

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Speaker 6: pretty quickly. However, there's going to be a lot of

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Speaker 6: problems regardless of that in terms of water, because not

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Speaker 6: only do we have what will probably be a record

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Speaker 6: storm surge along the coast roughly between Tampa's Sarasota and

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Speaker 6: down the coast from there, you know, almost toward Cape Coral,

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Speaker 6: we're also going to have extremely heavy rains. We're talking

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Speaker 6: ten to fifteen inches of rain, which may include the

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Speaker 6: Tampa Bay area. Now, if it's toward the high end

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Speaker 6: of that, that will be the heaviest two day rain

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Speaker 6: they've ever had in the history of tampas So given

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Speaker 6: the expanse of that metro area, there could be tremendous flooding.

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Speaker 6: The big question is will the storm surge be as

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Speaker 6: bad as feared in Tampa itself. Right now, it looks

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Speaker 6: like they're going to be right on the edge. It

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Speaker 6: could be there. They may end up on the north

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Speaker 6: side of the center. We're just going to have to see.

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Speaker 6: That cannot be predicted, because it could it comes down

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Speaker 6: to a wabble of the storm ten or twenty miles

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Speaker 6: will make all the difference.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're pointing us to what really counts your bob.

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Speaker 2: As we've all the track of the storm tonight and

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Speaker 2: it's landing likely early tomorrow morning. What is the differing

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Speaker 2: result between landfall just north of Tampa versus south.

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Speaker 6: Well, if you say that the center came in just

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Speaker 6: a little north of Tampa, and that looks very unlikely,

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Speaker 6: you would have west winds pushing right into the bay

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Speaker 6: as the hurricane came on shore, you know, pushing the

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Speaker 6: surge into the bay. That's pretty much the worst case

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Speaker 6: scenario that has been contemplated for a century for Tampa.

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Speaker 6: If the I comes in, say twenty miles south of Tampa,

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Speaker 6: then you're going to actually have water exiting the bay

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Speaker 6: or trying to exit the bay, and you simply won't

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Speaker 6: have the same surge disaster in Tampa. Now, this is

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Speaker 6: simply pushing the disaster down the coast, of course, and

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Speaker 6: it's important to keep in mind that a Manatee County,

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Speaker 6: Sarasota County, which are south of Tampa, Saint Petersburg, they

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Speaker 6: have close to a million people, almost half as much

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Speaker 6: as Vanellas and Hillsboro Counties, which are Tampa and Saint Petersburg.

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Speaker 6: So it's it's not negligible if those areas get hit

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Speaker 6: by the worst of the surge, and again this will

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Speaker 6: be record surge. Of people living now have not seen

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Speaker 6: the kind of surge that they will be getting just

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Speaker 6: south of the center.

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Speaker 5: Well, and as we consider that no living person will

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Speaker 5: have experienced this, that we are describing this as a

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Speaker 5: once in a century storm, it is worth pointing out

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Speaker 5: what has changed in terms of the climate over the

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Speaker 5: last century. We're talking about warmer waters in the Gulf,

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Speaker 5: for example, that have allowed this storm to become what

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Speaker 5: it is. How should we be considering the climate aspect

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Speaker 5: of this, Bob, and how this potentially will inform what

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Speaker 5: the storms of the future could look like.

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Speaker 6: Well, here's one anecdote to consider. There have only been

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Speaker 6: three hurricanes that have hit Cat five then weekends, then

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Speaker 6: hit Cat five again in the Gulf of Mexico. The

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Speaker 6: other two were Camille in nineteen sixty nine and Allen

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Speaker 6: in nineteen eighty. Now, both those occurred in August. Right, Well,

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Speaker 6: here we are almost in the middle of October and

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Speaker 6: we're getting this event happening again. So that tells you

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Speaker 6: something about the waters being warm enough in October sustained

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Speaker 6: event that previously it only occurred in August. Right, the

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Speaker 6: waters simply are warmer. You know, this is about a

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Speaker 6: straightforward as it gets. We are warming the oceans around

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Speaker 6: the world, and that means you're going to have periods

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Speaker 6: when you have record warm water for a given time

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Speaker 6: a year, and that's exactly what we have right now

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Speaker 6: in the Gulf. So that's not a complicated, you know concept.

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Speaker 6: It's a basic heat engine. You warm up the oceans

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Speaker 6: and that provides fuel for hurricanes. So we can expect

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Speaker 6: not every year we'll have a lot of hurricanes. The

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Speaker 6: number of hurricanes may not actually increase. What we've been

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Speaker 6: seeing so far is that the proportion of hurricanes that

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Speaker 6: get to really intense streams has been going up, and

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Speaker 6: also the rapidity with which they strengthened. And we saw

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Speaker 6: that manifested with Milton on Monday, where it cranked from

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Speaker 6: a tropical storm to category five in about twenty five hours.

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Speaker 7: Wow.

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Speaker 2: National Hurricane Center Bob says Milton could also spawn tornadoes

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Speaker 2: in the area. How likely is that? How much more

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Speaker 2: damage would that cause?

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Speaker 6: Well, it's already happening. We've had tornadoes near Fort Lauderdale

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Speaker 6: just in the last several hours. So we're going to

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Speaker 6: have a cluster of what are called super self thunderstorms.

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Speaker 6: So these are the ones that can produce the buonafide

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Speaker 6: substantial tornadoes like e F two or stronger. So we're

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Speaker 6: not talking about water spouts that may move just on shore.

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Speaker 6: These are the real thing, and there's there could be

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Speaker 6: dozens of them. You know, some hurricanes have spawned up

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Speaker 6: more than one hundred tornadoes. Now we're not expecting that,

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Speaker 6: but there could be quite a few. And this will

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Speaker 6: mainly affect areas roughly in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee,

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Speaker 6: maybe down towards South Florida, basically south of the track

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Speaker 6: of Milton. So what we're looking at is cord are

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Speaker 6: extremely heavy rains north of the track of Hilton of Milton,

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Speaker 6: and then a cord or a very strong winds nearing

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Speaker 6: just south of the center and the storm search. Obviously

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Speaker 6: the wind corridor could go all the way across the

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Speaker 6: state at a hurricane force and south of that the

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Speaker 6: super self thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially this afternoon and into tonight.

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Speaker 5: It's just frightening to consider what Florida, the entire state

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Speaker 5: could experience over the next twenty four to forty eight hours.

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Speaker 5: Bob and as we consider what emergency personnel are going

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Speaker 5: to have to respond to, including FEMA, and the resources

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Speaker 5: that will be required. Obviously, we're talking tens of billions

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Speaker 5: of dollars, if not hundreds of billion dollars of damages

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Speaker 5: over the course of these two storms we've seen in

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Speaker 5: the last two weeks. We heard from the Homeland Security

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Speaker 5: Secretary alle Hundre Mayworkis last week who said, well, FEMA

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Speaker 5: does have the means to immediately respond to these storms,

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Speaker 5: they may not be able to make it all the

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Speaker 5: way through hurricane season. And given what you just told

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Speaker 5: us a moment ago, this notion that we're seeing storms

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Speaker 5: this powerful in October when we used to see them

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Speaker 5: historically more so in August, say, are we going to

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Speaker 5: look at an extended hurricane season in the few sure,

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Speaker 5: because that has implications for the allotment of resources to

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Speaker 5: potential emergency responses that could need to happen over a

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Speaker 5: prolonged period of time.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, this is very similar to what's been

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Speaker 6: happening with wildfires. I live in Boulder, Colorado. We had

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Speaker 6: a had astrophic wildfire here three years ago on December thirtieth.

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Speaker 6: Nobody had seen anything close to something that bad that

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Speaker 6: late in the year destroyed a thousand homes just a

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Speaker 6: few miles from me, right And this is Colorado, where

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Speaker 6: we normally have at least a little snow on the

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Speaker 6: ground at the end of December. So wildfire season has expanded.

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Speaker 6: Hurricane season seems to be expanding a little bit. And

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Speaker 6: in particular, there are years like this year where we

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Speaker 6: were going into La Nina, which is a natural process,

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Speaker 6: but when you combine that with record warm motions, La

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Speaker 6: Nina's allowed the hurricane season to extend further into the

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Speaker 6: fall and late fall, and I'm afraid this year that's

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Speaker 6: exactly what we're seeing. There are already hints that we

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Speaker 6: may have yet another system developing in the Western Caribbean

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Speaker 6: about a week from now. So there's no sign that

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Speaker 6: this really heavy, backloaded season as we call it, is

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Speaker 6: going to be winding down in the immediate future, and

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Speaker 6: we certainly have to be prepared from an emergency response

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Speaker 6: standpoint for just protracted periods and multiple hits in short order,

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Speaker 6: as we're seeing right now in Florida and across the southeast.

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Speaker 2: Also, considering the strength of this storm, the impact of

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Speaker 2: warming waters, what does it mean once the storm goes inland.

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Speaker 2: In this case, Bob, what happens to Orlando? Can the

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Speaker 2: storm continue at hurricane strength until it reaches the east coast.

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Speaker 6: It's actually precisely predicted to do just that. It is

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Speaker 6: expected to come off shore tomorrow morning, still as a hurricane. Now,

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Speaker 6: the strongest winds will be just south of the center.

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Speaker 6: There may be a corridor maybe ten fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 6: miles across with you know, winds of you know, fifty

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Speaker 6: sixty seventy miles an hour and gus even a little

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Speaker 6: above that. That corridor will probably be just south of Orlando.

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Speaker 6: The way it's looking now, roughly from just south of

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Speaker 6: Landfall location between Tampa and for Myers up toward perhaps

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Speaker 6: reaching Melbourne to Daytona Beach and crossing the state a

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Speaker 6: little bit south of Orlando. But Orlando is squarely in

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Speaker 6: the crosstairs for extremely heavy rain. They could also see

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Speaker 6: ten inches or more of rain, and those rains will

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Speaker 6: have embedded downburst winds. So you're going to have the

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Speaker 6: problem of trees and power lines going down and very

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Speaker 6: heavy rains with severe inland flooding, potentially catastrophic, life threatening

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Speaker 6: flash floods well inland from the hurricane. So Orlando could

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Speaker 6: see a very very rough night as far as pure winds,

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Speaker 6: the worst of the hurricane style winds maybe just south

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Speaker 6: of them.

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Speaker 5: All right, Bob, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 5: That's Bob Henson, meteorologist and journalists with Yale Climate Connections,

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Speaker 5: also author of The Thinking Person's Guide to Climate Change.

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Speaker 5: We appreciate your insights as we track this very powerful storm,

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Speaker 5: and we also want to track the response from the

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Speaker 5: White House to this storm, as we just heard from

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Speaker 5: President Biden and Vice President Harris within the last hour.

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Speaker 5: So let's go now to the White House North Lawn

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Speaker 5: where we find Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. Tyler, what did we

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Speaker 5: learn from the briefing?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, hey, Kelly, So we know that President Biden is

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Speaker 8: still at that briefing in the White House on his

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Speaker 8: administration's response to Hurricane Milton. At the top, he gave

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Speaker 8: those remarks saying that this is quote literally a matter

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Speaker 8: of life and death when it comes to heating the

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Speaker 8: administration's safety guidance. We are expecting President Biden to deliver

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Speaker 8: remarks to the nation later tonight at five point thirty

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Speaker 8: pm Eastern. The White House also went ahead and canceled

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Speaker 8: some of President Biden's scheduled international travel, with stops to

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Speaker 8: Germany and Angola slated for later this week. Instead, he

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Speaker 8: will now remain in Washington to monitor the federal response

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Speaker 8: to the storm now. President Biden also said that he

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Speaker 8: has been in touch with all the governors in the

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Speaker 8: expected impacted states, that includes Florida Governor Ron Destantis. Of course,

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Speaker 8: Florida is a big focus of this White House briefing today,

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Speaker 8: and actually Governor DeSantis held a briefing this morning and

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Speaker 8: where he went ahead and he thinked the personnel that

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Speaker 8: are already on the ground when it comes to first responders,

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Speaker 8: but also the federal personnel that are already deploying to

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Speaker 8: the state.

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Speaker 3: There's so much that was done in the immediate aftermath

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Speaker 3: and is still being done in that Then you have

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Speaker 3: another storm that developed and immediately you're back on that

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Speaker 3: posture round the clock, no time to rest, no time

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Speaker 3: to sleep for a lot of these folks. And it's

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Speaker 3: not easy. And so I just want to say on

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Speaker 3: behalf of the say to Florida, thank you for discharging

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Speaker 3: your duties, thank you for accepting this mission. It's not

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Speaker 3: going to be easy.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 8: As you both have been covering, there's been this emerging

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Speaker 8: intersection between hurricanes Helene and Milton, which you heard the

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Speaker 8: governor eluded there, but also the race for the White House.

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Speaker 8: Just this morning, Vice presidential candidate Jade Vance Pendon off

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Speaker 8: ed in the Wall Street Journal alleging a slow response

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Speaker 8: from the White House. This comes on the heels of

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Speaker 8: North Carolina Center or Ted budd A, calling attention to

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Speaker 8: a delay in one thousand authorized troops getting to his

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Speaker 8: state after the Pentagon had said that they would be

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Speaker 8: deployed within twenty four hours. But for their part, the

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Speaker 8: White House has been defending its federal response. You heard

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Speaker 8: President Biden earlier here calling misinformation incredibly dangerous. FEMA put

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Speaker 8: out some new figures this morning on their response. They're

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Speaker 8: saying that now federal assistants for survivors of Hellen surpasses

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Speaker 8: two hundred and eighty six million dollars. There's also currently

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Speaker 8: seven thousand federal personnel deployed across the country when it

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Speaker 8: comes to these disaster zones.

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Speaker 2: Bringing us the facts from the North lawn of the

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Speaker 2: White House. Tyler Kendall reporting from Bloomberg. Tyler, thank you

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Speaker 2: so much. As we mentioned, Joe Biden will be speaking

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Speaker 2: from the White House around five thirty pm Eastern time,

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Speaker 2: and we'll bring you his remarks. As we get a

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Speaker 2: bit closer, we'll assemble our panel coming up next with

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Speaker 2: Kayleie Lions. I'm Joe Matthew on the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and

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00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 1: then Broudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 5: Welcome back to Balance Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio,

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00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 5: where we are continuing to keep track of this election

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00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 5: as it grows closer and closer. Now less than four

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00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 5: weeks away and with such a short time to go,

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00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 5: another natural disaster potentially throwing a wrench not just in

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Speaker 5: people's lives who are affected, but in this campaign as well.

444
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 5: As we have seen some politicization of the approaching Hurricane Milton,

445
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 5: which is getting ready to slam into Florida's west coast.

446
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 5: There's a lot of misinformation specifically circulating about these storms

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00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 5: and the way in which the government is responding to them.

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00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 5: This is something that was addressed by President Biden at

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Speaker 5: the White House earlier today.

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Speaker 9: There's been a reckless, irresponsible and relentless promotion of disinformation

451
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 9: and outright lives that are disturbing people. It's undermining confidence

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00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 9: and the incredible ruskin and recovery work that has already

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00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 9: been taken and will continue to be taken. It's harmful

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00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 9: of those who need help the most. There's simply no

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Speaker 9: place for this to happen.

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Speaker 2: Sere we start with our political panel with us today.

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, Republican Strategists and

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00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: of course Bloomberg Politics contributor alongside Laura Think of Rebel Communications,

459
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 2: she's founder and CEO of the firm, Democratic strategist. With

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00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 2: the pretty difficult conversation that we're having here in Washington,

461
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, how is the White House doing and setting

462
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 2: the record straight on this? Joe Biden and Kamala Harris

463
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: briefed earlier. The President will be addressing the American people

464
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: later today from the Roosevelt Room. Is he the voice

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00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: of credibility on this misinformation?

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Speaker 7: Yeah? I think the fact that he's addressing it raises

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00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 7: the level of importance to it significantly. I saw Secretary

468
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 7: my on morning shows today echoing his statements trying to

469
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 7: tamp down these kinds of misinformations. But I think it

470
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 7: needs to be comprehensive all through the government, which I

471
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 7: think they're in the process of doing. But also I

472
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 7: think they should sit down with as many members of

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Speaker 7: Congress as they can, those senators affected in the zones

474
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 7: that are being disrupted by these weather currencies, and ask

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00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 7: them to do the same thing. We've seen many Republican

476
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 7: mayors in North Carolina try to tamp down the rumors

477
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 7: on their own, maybe a concerted effort to put everybody

478
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 7: together and uniformly dispel these things because we're up against

479
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 7: We're not up against they are up against. People with

480
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 7: a bigger megaphone, a presidential campaign of Donald Trump's, and

481
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 7: a massive social media company like Elon Musk are the

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00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 7: ones who are putting fuel to the fire of these

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00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 7: rumors and falsehoods.

484
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Speaker 5: Well and of course affecting potentially real lives in the process.

485
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 5: If people don't understand what resources are available to them,

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00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 5: what the correct information is, which is why this effort

487
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 5: may be so critical. It does raise the question though,

488
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 5: as to other than the detrimental effect it could have,

489
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 5: what positive effect it could have, or why this information

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00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 5: is being circulated in the first place. These suggestions being made,

491
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 5: including Frankly, though it is not falls in all of

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00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 5: its allegations. The op ed from JD Vance about the

493
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 5: delayed response we did see in terms of troops going

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Speaker 5: into North Carolina after Hurricane Helene, Laura. When we consider

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00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 5: what this does and the people who may be most

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00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 5: open to receiving this misinformation and trusting what they hear

497
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 5: from these sources, are these people who are already going

498
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 5: to be supportive of Donald Trump already, or these people

499
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 5: who could actually change their minds about an incumbent in

500
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 5: Kamala Harris given the federal government response to this that

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Speaker 5: they believe is happening.

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00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 10: Well, you know, no one is going to find the

503
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 10: silver bullet on the issue that will impact, you know,

504
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 10: the swing voters that seem to be so elusive in

505
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 10: this election. But I will say this, they are changing

506
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 10: the conversation they understand and Donald Trump has an all

507
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 10: based strategy and so essentially he is tying this to immigration.

508
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 10: All of the false claims are about funding that has

509
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 10: nothing to do with the emergency aid that FEMA uses.

510
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 10: But by saying immigrants are stealing your funding, he's able

511
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 10: to bring that strength of an issue back to the

512
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 10: conversation and lying to do it. But I think that

513
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 10: this changes the subject for him, and he really has

514
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 10: shown and Jade Vance has really not shown any willingness

515
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 10: to stick to the facts. And you know, I agree

516
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 10: with Rick who said earlier in the hour that you know,

517
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 10: criticism is fair game with respect to response times, et cetera.

518
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 10: But I think we also have to focus on when

519
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 10: leadership is in the midst of a natural disaster, it's

520
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 10: absolutely critical that we're all speaking from the same playbook

521
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 10: when it comes to getting people age. So I would

522
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 10: like to see more prominent Republican voices get the airtime

523
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 10: to be able to speak to their audiences, because it's

524
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 10: true that arguments from authority really work and you have

525
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 10: the people who you trust, and so speaking from the

526
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 10: same set of talking points and the same truths is

527
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 10: really critical because people that are suffering are you know,

528
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 10: are are everyone's face? So really important that we change

529
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 10: what's happening here. But it is hard to do with

530
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 10: a national conversation. Eager to talk about the controversy and

531
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 10: give airtime to the misinformation.

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00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: Just ask Chuck Edwards, the congressman from North Carolina, out

533
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: with a list of rumors and just untruth that he's

534
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: trying to debunk. Referring to himself as one of the

535
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: Mountain people, he says, well, it's true FEMA's response to

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00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: Hurricane Helene has had its shortfalls. I'm here to dispel

537
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 2: outrageous rumors that have been circulated online, including Hurricane Helene

538
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: was not geo engineered by the government to seize and

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00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 2: access lithium deposits in Chimney Rock. This is the kind

540
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 2: of stuff that's going around here. Rick, To what extent

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00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: are the social media platforms, one of them owned by

542
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: Elon Musk, responsible for controlling this content?

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00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that Pok's on everyone's house for giving

544
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 7: air to this kind of information. I do think even

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00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 7: normal media outlets who report things like Marjorie Taylor Green's

546
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 7: claims that you know, Democrats were able to engineer the storm,

547
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 7: I mean, in order to only hit the Republican locations.

548
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 7: I mean, all these things are just complete fabrications of

549
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 7: the truth, and so at some point, I think, you know,

550
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 7: all of us have to get together, the media, elected officials,

551
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 7: and others and say, you know, we're just going to

552
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 7: stop giving air to this, because every time we talk

553
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 7: about it, we're actually, you know, raising doubts in people's mind. Gee, well,

554
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 7: I hadn't heard that rumor before. I wonder if there's

555
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 7: any veracity to it, you know, can we believe Rick

556
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 7: Davis and Joe Matthew. I don't know, And so I

557
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 7: think there's got to be a more comprehensive strategy than

558
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 7: just sort of wagging the finger at X or a

559
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 7: couple of these other social mediaut lists and say stop this.

560
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 7: I mean, I honestly, I think Congress owes it to

561
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 7: the American people to hold hearings and start coming up

562
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 7: with remedies to this, because otherwise misinformation is going to

563
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 7: control the agenda every day.

564
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: Well, it's a very fair point.

565
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 4: Rick.

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Speaker 5: Of course, we probably won't see Congress do anything like

567
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 5: that until this election is already over, as they're not

568
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 5: scheduled to come back until mid November, potentially still not

569
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 5: even going to return to address any supplemental funding requests

570
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 5: that may arise from these storms. But given that it

571
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 5: is the election that is dictating a lot of this timeline.

572
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 5: I do want to switch gears to the campaign which

573
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 5: is still underway, if not impacted by this. We just

574
00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 5: got some new reporting out of NBC which recording which

575
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 5: cites two people familiar with the numbers and says Kamala

576
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 5: Harris's presidential campaign operation has crossed the one billion dollar

577
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 5: fundraising threshold in September. Includes money raised by the campaign

578
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 5: committee itself, CAMPAID affiliated joint fundraising committee that also collects

579
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 5: for the DNC and state parties. If we look at

580
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 5: just the financial figures, it raises the question of whether

581
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 5: that momentum is sustaining for Kamala Harris, Laura, and Frankly,

582
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 5: what the incremental dollars still mean at this point when

583
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 5: a lot of the advis are already in.

584
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 10: An adviser One thing I would say campaign infrastructure. I

585
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 10: think what Kamala Harris has done well and I think

586
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 10: it's one of her strategic advantages over the Trump campaign

587
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 10: is she has field offices, and she's hired staff, and

588
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 10: they have resources that they're able to build out. They're

589
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 10: also able to work with community organizations and groups that

590
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 10: could also be deployed and be able to reach out

591
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 10: to voters in a trusted way. So the ability the

592
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 10: early infrastructure has made this money much much more effect

593
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 10: But you're right, there is a limit to the impact

594
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 10: of money. You know, you very well may lose if

595
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 10: you don't have it, and the delta is too big.

596
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 10: But money is not a guaranteur of a win, and

597
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 10: we've seen that time and time again. So but I

598
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 10: think the money is one thing, But I think there's

599
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 10: also momentum we see and you know, don't trust all

600
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 10: the polling, but in terms of direction, she's moving in

601
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:25,239
Speaker 10: the right direction, and her media appearances this week in

602
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 10: a narrow casted way, are really making the argument to

603
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 10: the targeted groups that she needs to continue to persuade

604
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 10: with messages that we now see are working in terms

605
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 10: of getting voters on her side.

606
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: Well, you know, we can still have another debate here.

607
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: I don't know if anybody thinks it's going to happen,

608
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 2: but Rick, Fox News is raising its hand again. Fox

609
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: News Media reporting it's made a final pitch to host

610
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: a debate between Kamala Harris former President Trump. Today, the

611
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: executives from Fox sent letters to both campaigns. This would

612
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: be October twenty fourth, or twenty seventh Brett Baar Martha

613
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 2: m McCollum as moderators, Rick, is there any chance this

614
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: happens if the money continues to be lopsided and the

615
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: race stays as tight as it is.

616
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm pretty sure that the Trump people do not

617
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 7: want him on the stage with Kamala Harris. He completely

618
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 7: schooled him in the last debate, and this puts him

619
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 7: in an awkward spot because he can't complain about the

620
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 7: network being against him. I don't think there's any scenario

621
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 7: where people would think Fox isn't the easiest option that

622
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 7: he could possibly have. And if I were the Harris campaign,

623
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 7: I would immediately agree to this debate. There's nothing they

624
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 7: can throw at her that is going to be any

625
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 7: tougher than what previous moderators have done, or even you know,

626
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 7: things like the sixty minutes interview, So she's more practiced

627
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 7: today than she was then. It really calls in a

628
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 7: question whether or not Donald Trump thinks he's winning or losing.

629
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 7: If he's losing, he better get on that stage because

630
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 7: otherwise he'll be criticized for having ducked.

631
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 5: We have less than a minute left, but there's another

632
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 5: debate that's happening today in a state you know, well, Arizona,

633
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 5: Carry Lake and Ruben Diego, the Senate candidates are going

634
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 5: to battle it out, apparently on the eve of carry

635
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 5: Lake voting early, which is something she didn't like in

636
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 5: past cycles. Is that going to move the needle at all?

637
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 5: Or do you see this one is already in the back?

638
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,879
Speaker 7: Yeah? No, I think this is a pretty competitive race.

639
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 7: Carry Lake is behind Ruben Diago by every poll that's

640
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 7: been taken in the last month, so I would suspect

641
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 7: you will see a very unhinged carry Lake trying to

642
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 7: throw as much mud at the wall and see what sticks.

643
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 7: And Ruben Diego is no pushover. I mean, he's an

644
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 7: attack politician who knows his way around a microphone. So

645
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 7: I think that this would be actually pretty good at

646
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 7: entertainment if there weren't any playoff games going on today.

647
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 5: All right, Rick Davis partner as Stone Cord Capital, and

648
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 5: Laura Fink Communication Rebel Rebel Communications founder and CEO, thank

649
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 5: you so much for being here with us on balance

650
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 5: of power and pointing out in Arizona, it's not just

651
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 5: debate day, it's also the start of early voting, a reminder,

652
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 5: this election is already well underway.

653
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: See Carrie Lake is going to be doing that herself,

654
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 2: and believe tomorrow casting the ballot. We'll be watching right

655
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg.

656
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

657
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplay in enroyd

658
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen

659
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

660
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: As we turn our attention to politics and the swing

662
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 2: states again, this is where we find our candidates almost

663
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: every day. Lest Donald Trump is throwing a rally at

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00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden, which is one of the more recent headlines.

665
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: But yes, it's Pennsylvania, it's Michigan, it's Wisconsin, where the

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00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: Cook Political Report plants a flag again today Jessica Taylor

667
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 2: writing that Wisconsin seeing its Senate race shift, Cook has

668
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 2: gone from Lean's Democrat to a toss up. And what

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00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 2: is a narrowing race here now a two point race

670
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 2: depending on the poll that you're looking at. Here, this

671
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: is Senator Tammy Baldwin versus Republican challenger Eric Hovdy and

672
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: Jessica Taylor is with us from the Cook Political Report

673
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 2: right now to talk about why and I wonder why

674
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: this is narrowing to such an extent here, Jessica, welcome back.

675
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 2: This was a seven point race in August.

676
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 11: I think that we're just seeing a natural tightening and

677
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 11: a lot of these races. Wisconsin is probably the closest

678
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 11: to an evenly split fifty to fifty states we have

679
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 11: in the country. These races are just always close, and

680
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 11: Wisconsin the twenty twenty two race with Ron Johnson the

681
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 11: Republican winning there was decided by just one point. What

682
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 11: we are seeing across particularly some of these blue wall

683
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 11: states is that Republicans were underperforming where Trump was. We're

684
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 11: seeing that sort of Republicans coming home. We saw in

685
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 11: our poll, our Swing State Project poll, which and found

686
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 11: that Timmy Baldwin, the Democratic senator there was a head

687
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 11: by two points forty nine to forty seven over her

688
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 11: Republican challenger. Since August, we have seen an eleven point

689
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 11: shift among Independents along with a slight shift among Republicans

690
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 11: toward Hubdy. And we're seeing that sort of you know, Democrats,

691
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 11: Democratic candidates we're running more ahead of Harris. I think

692
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 11: that those numbers have sort of become more in line

693
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 11: with the Senate races. Ultimately, what we see is that

694
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 11: these Senate races are just very closely aligned with the

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00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 11: presidential results in the state. Remember that in twenty sixteen,

696
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 11: every single Senate race went the same way as the

697
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 11: presidential result. And in twenty twenty only Susan Collins of

698
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 11: Maine managed to win reelection, out running Trump by seven points,

699
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 11: even as Biden won that state. So Wisconsin always a

700
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 11: very close race. We're seeing that Titan Huvedy is spending

701
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 11: millions of his own money. He's up to about twenty

702
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 11: million so far, and Democrats had the early spending advantage

703
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 11: that has now narrowed. Republicans even have a slight edge

704
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 11: when it comes to spending here in these last few weeks.

705
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 2: Well, I wanted to ask you about that. That's really interesting.

706
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 2: To what extent is this tightening just the natural course

707
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 2: of politics up and down the ballot, or to your point,

708
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 2: the spending, the massive spending by Hubby of his personal fortune.

709
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 11: I think it's a little bit of both. You know,

710
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 11: Hubby spent early, but his campaign got off to a

711
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 11: little bit of a rocky start. His ads weren't great.

712
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 11: He was featured in them. I think that that didn't

713
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 11: he didn't seem to endear himself to voters in that regard,

714
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 11: and Baldwin was able to sort of make the race

715
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 11: about him, about some of the controversial comments he said

716
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 11: about people voting in nursing homes, about obese people paying

717
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 11: more for healthcare, about single moms, and different things. But

718
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 11: now Hubby's ads are more focused on bald when more

719
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 11: focused on policy issues. They're not this direct a camera appeal,

720
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 11: and that does seem to be coming across even Democrats

721
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 11: I talked to, So I do think it's a combination

722
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 11: of both. It's the increased spending. I think it's more

723
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 11: targeted advertising. But just in the fact that you know,

724
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 11: Democrats admit, you know, they never believed this was going

725
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 11: to be a seven point race, that there was always

726
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 11: sort of going to be this natural tightening, just because

727
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 11: that's the way racism Wisconsin.

728
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 2: Are interesting that as we consider the money in this race,

729
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 2: Hovedy is actually attacking Tammy Baldwin for insider trading, essentially

730
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 2: accusing her of insider dealings on Wall Street, even attacking

731
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 2: her partner Maria Brisbane, who, as you point out, as

732
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: a private wealth manager in New York. How much of

733
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: that has to do with insider trading or reminding people

734
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 2: that Tammy Baldwin is openly gay.

735
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 11: I mean, Republicans deny that that's something, but you know,

736
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 11: Democrats are certainly saying this is reminding her of her sexuality.

737
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 11: She was the first lesbian elected to Congress to the

738
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 11: Senate rather and you know, one of the taglines actually

739
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 11: says she's in bed with Wall Street. So I mean,

740
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 11: it certainly does could have a subtle message there, But

741
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 11: you know, Republicans and these ads, they say it's just

742
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 11: targeted to say, you know, she's she's profiting or her

743
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 11: partner potentially is profiting. Because they aren't married, she does

744
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 11: not have to disclose as much as if they were

745
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 11: legally married in that regard. So I think it's you know,

746
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 11: but Republicans believe they found a salient line of attack,

747
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 11: but Democrats say, you know, again, this could backfire if

748
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 11: they're trying to hint at her sexuality.

749
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: Spending time with Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report,

750
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: and they're new ratings here on the Wisconsin Senate race.

751
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: If we can just pull out the lens here a

752
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 2: little bit here at Zoom Mount Jessica to some of

753
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 2: the other battlegrounds, we can even stay in the blue

754
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 2: wall of Pennsylvania Michigan. Are we seeing them all tighten

755
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 2: in the same way Wisconsin is.

756
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 11: We are seeing them more of a tightening. Now, Wisconsin

757
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 11: was the closest race that we had at the presidential level.

758
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 11: They're all within the margin of their where polling found,

759
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 11: and that's very consistent. The Michigan race was a four

760
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 11: point edge with the Democratic Now this is an open sea,

761
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,359
Speaker 11: so it's a we're seeing, you know, a little bit

762
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 11: more competitive there that Elissa Slocke in her first time

763
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 11: running statewide, she has far more money than her Republican opponent,

764
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 11: former Congressman Mike Rodgers there. But in both Wisconsin and

765
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 11: in Michigan, we're seeing the Senate Leadership Fund, the main

766
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 11: superpack backed by Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, pour millions of

767
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 11: dollars into there. They've also up there by there in Pennsylvania,

768
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 11: and this is a state, you know, we rate Michigan

769
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 11: still as a toss up, but Pennsylvania is still in

770
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 11: lean Democrat, but that one was a seven point race

771
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 11: in our poll. We have seen some internal GOP numbers

772
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 11: that have that closer. Both sides believe this certainly could tighten.

773
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 11: But right now, Bob Casey, who's you know, longtime senator

774
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 11: there father was governor, he is running slightly ahead of

775
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:38,280
Speaker 11: where Harris is, and Dave McCormick still running slightly behind

776
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 11: where Trump is. But would I be shocked to see

777
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 11: this one become closer? I wouldn't.

778
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 2: And that's something you know. It's not lost on us

779
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden was in Montgomery County stumping for Bob

780
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: Casey earlier this week. Do you believe in reverse coattails?

781
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 2: We only have a minute left here, Jessica, But could

782
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 2: Bob Casey actually help Kamala Harris or is it the

783
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: other way around?

784
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 11: I think in my I'm not. I think these presidential

785
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 11: results are just tied. And if voters, if members can

786
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 11: convince them to sort of see these as two distinct races.

787
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 11: But can we see these so closely tied? I'm a

788
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 11: little skeptical of this reverse coattails. You know, there's been

789
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 11: brought up in North Carolina with what's gone on with

790
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 11: the governor's race. We aren't seeing any evidence of that

791
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 11: in our polling yet.

792
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 2: Really glad to get you back, Jessica Taylor. This is

793
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,439
Speaker 2: the busy time, four weeks to go here, and we're

794
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 2: always looking at the Cook Political Report. Today it's Wisconsin,

795
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 2: and we'll be making our way through all the swing

796
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 2: states between now, of course November fifth. Jessica Taylor, thank

797
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 2: you so much.

798
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

799
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

800
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 1: Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

801
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

802
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Ballance of Power here

803
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. On YouTube as well search

804
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business News Live. You can always find our programs

805
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 2: here in Washington and in New York. With so much

806
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 2: attention paid to the arrival of Hurricane Milton, and that

807
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 2: will happen overnight, a major political story as it is

808
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 2: a natural disaster in the making. Here, we're keeping tabs

809
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: on what's happening in Israel. Of course, one of the

810
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 2: other major stories that we've been following for weeks and

811
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 2: the phone call we understand has happened. There was reporting

812
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: earlier that some questioned Joe Biden has had a telephone

813
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 2: meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo and

814
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 2: Kaylee lines it comes against the backdrop of the wait

815
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: for a response of course by Israel to Iran, and

816
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 2: Israel's defense minister you have Glan today says an attack

817
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: on Iran will be deadly, precise and above all surprising.

818
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, adding that they will not understand what happened and

819
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 5: how it happened, but they will see the results well.

820
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 5: With the reminder that Gallant was supposed to be here

821
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 5: in Washington today, specifically at the Pentagon meeting with Defense

822
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 5: Secretary Mary Lloyd Austin, and that trip was canceled because Netanyahu, essentially,

823
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 5: we understand, based on a reporting, said no, I'm talking

824
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 5: to Biden.

825
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 2: Yirse, you pulled him from the schedule here, which is

826
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 2: why some question whether this phone call would take place

827
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: today or not. Kaylee, We're waiting for a readout from

828
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 2: the White House and might have to wait till a

829
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 2: bit later in the White House briefing to learn what

830
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 2: was said.

831
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, that briefing is scheduled to begin in a few minutes,

832
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 5: will of course bring you any headlines we get out

833
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 5: of that, But in the meantime, we want to turn

834
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 5: to an expert on the Middle East joining us here

835
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 5: in our Washington, d C. Studio as Maara Rudman. She

836
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 5: is professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia,

837
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 5: also director of the Ripples of Hope project focused on

838
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 5: democratic solutions. Mar great to see you here, Thank you

839
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 5: for being with us on balance of power. As we

840
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 5: await the readout, I think we can still question what

841
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 5: the tenor of this call was between Biden and net Nyahu.

842
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 5: As we have seen born out in recent months and

843
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 5: in recent weeks, what the US wants doesn't necessarily always

844
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 5: matter to Israel. Do you think that will remain the

845
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 5: case when Israel does US have this surprising response that

846
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 5: Golant is alluding to.

847
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 12: So I think that what the US wants does matter

848
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 12: to Israel, it may not be determinative, and so I

849
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 12: would just caution with that. I think part of the

850
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 12: Secretary of the Minister of Defense Galant, coming to Washington

851
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 12: is a signal of the closeness of the relationship, the

852
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 12: need to talk through to take advice or to hear advice,

853
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 12: and to hear counsel. But ultimately you have a sovereign

854
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 12: country that's going to do what it feels is that

855
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 12: it's best interest to defend itself. The relationship between President

856
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 12: Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu is a different type of

857
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 12: sticking point challenge, and I think that was reflected in

858
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 12: Golant's visit being put on hold by the Prime minister.

859
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 2: Was his relationship maybe overstated at the beginning of this

860
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 2: conflict with Benjamin Netanya, who Joe Biden us to talk

861
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 2: about the strategy would be to hug Benjamin Netania, I

862
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 2: would hold him closer to steer phrase Bob Woodward's reporting

863
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 2: paints a picture of screaming, shouting matches on the phone

864
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: between these two leaders. What was their relationship before it

865
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: began to deteriorate.

866
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 12: So what I would say is, and I can't speak

867
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 12: specifically to President Biden's relationship with Prime Minister Netnaho. I

868
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 12: have been in the position to observe other presidents and

869
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 12: there back and forth with Prime mister netna who, given

870
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 12: the long term he has had and in and out

871
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 12: of government. But I definitely observed moments of deep irritation,

872
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 12: sometimes buried sometimes not between the presidents for whom I

873
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 12: worked and Prime Mister Neunyaho, and I heard private comments

874
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 12: made about the frustration, as well as sometimes some of

875
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 12: that seeping out into their dialogues with one another. So

876
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:02,839
Speaker 12: aside from the varas of Bob or Woodwood's reporting, which

877
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 12: has not been verified, I believe it's not hard to

878
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 12: understand that it's a contentious relationship. It's not the only

879
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 12: relationship like that the US presidents have with foreign leaders

880
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 12: at various points, and particularly ones where the countries have

881
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 12: the closeness of relationship the United States has with Israel.

882
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 5: Well, and certainly the closeness of that relationship was on

883
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 5: full display when the US aided Israel and defending against

884
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:31,479
Speaker 5: the hundreds of missiles around sent toward Israel last week.

885
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 5: So it's the response we're still waiting for from Israel

886
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 5: to that, what is your expectation about what form it

887
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 5: actually will take, how escalatory a move Israel would be

888
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 5: realistically considering.

889
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 12: Well, I listen closely to your description of what Defense

890
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 12: Minister Gallant said, and he strikes me as having chosen

891
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 12: his words with great care, and the equation in the

892
00:47:57,200 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 12: region between what various countries and Israel's not alone in

893
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 12: this see as necessary for deterrence and yet so deterring

894
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 12: your enemy, your adversary, and yet minimizing the degree of

895
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 12: escalation of the conflict is a pretty precise calibration that

896
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 12: can often go wrong, and I would expect that that

897
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 12: is part of the discussions the United States is having

898
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 12: with Israel, and also Israeli internal discussions. Defense Minister Galante

899
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,240
Speaker 12: has not had the easiest time interacting with Prime Minster Yaho,

900
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 12: nor has the entire defense establishment in Israel.

901
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 2: Well went on to say that Israel saw that Iran's

902
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:42,759
Speaker 2: attack failed because they were not precise. Is it possible

903
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 2: to impress your opponent without escalating in this case.

904
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 12: I think it's a definition of what escalation means and

905
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:54,760
Speaker 12: in which ways. There are a number of different ways

906
00:48:54,880 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 12: of going at Iran, and and so that's that's a

907
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 12: hard question to answer, and it may be in the

908
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 12: eye of the beholder or the eye of the I

909
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 12: think there are a number of reasons why it hasn't happened.

910
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 12: It's a tough call to make sure, and a question

911
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 12: of timing and wanting to catch by surprise when the

912
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 12: entire world of the tension is on as well. So

913
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 12: I think there are any number of factors. I wouldn't

914
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 12: read too much into the length of time it's taken.

915
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 5: You just described all of this as being in the

916
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 5: eye of the beholder. So it is also a question

917
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 5: not just of how Israel is viewing the situation, but

918
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 5: how Iran is likely to view these potentially different retaliatory

919
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 5: actions and how Iran will respond. We frequently hear at

920
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 5: Bloomberg look at oil prices, look at the map of

921
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 5: the Gulf and the amount of oil that is coming

922
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 5: through the Straight of Horror moves for example, each and

923
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 5: every day, and question how realistically disruptive this could be

924
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 5: to the global economy depending on how Iran decides to

925
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 5: make its next move. Would you expect that, especially this

926
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 5: close to an American election, when authorities are telling us

927
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 5: Iran is trying to be disruptive, how they would think

928
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 5: about the potential economic impacts of their next move when

929
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 5: it comes to global energy markets.

930
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 12: So Iran has its own domestic challenges on the economy

931
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:11,720
Speaker 12: as well. So there are a number of different factors

932
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 12: that play in as do how regional actors are going

933
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 12: to respond other than Israel, and I took note of

934
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 12: the fact that the Iranian Foreign Minister, I believe today

935
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 12: is in Saudi Arabia meeting with the crown Prince. So

936
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 12: there are a lot of discussions with a lot of actors,

937
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,280
Speaker 12: including folks who do not have good relationships with one another.

938
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 12: The Saudis and the Iranians are a good example of

939
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 12: that and a huge international aspect. The reason they're able

940
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 12: to talk to each other is because China broke with

941
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 12: a surprise deal about a year ago between the Saudis

942
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 12: and the Iranians. So there are so many different factors

943
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 12: at play, and you really have to look at who

944
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 12: benefits and who is who assumes the costs. And that's

945
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 12: a global picture, not just a regional picture.

946
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 2: Lot said, they will not understand what happened and how

947
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 2: it happened. Should we be thinking beyond a military response

948
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 2: in this case? Could it be cyber? Could it be

949
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 2: a diplomatic salvo that we didn't expect here that involves

950
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 2: the US. Maybe this is not simply a military response.

951
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 12: I think it's I think it's fair to assume it

952
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 12: would not be solely a military response. I think even

953
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 12: now in the calibrations going in, you see certainly diplomacy

954
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 12: hard at work, and there are a number of economic

955
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 12: tools or military kinetic action that would affect the economy

956
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:38,919
Speaker 12: as well as Israel's history on cyber actions within Iran.

957
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 2: For them to not know how it happened suggests something

958
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 2: other than a ballistic missile.

959
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: Isn't it.

960
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 12: It certainly raises questions, and I assume he if he

961
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 12: was making that statement publicly, he wanted people to be

962
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 12: thinking along some of the lines of your suggesting.

963
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 5: Well, it also brings my mind to say, pagers and

964
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 5: walkie talkies suddenly exploding in the hands of people in

965
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 5: Lebanon as we're still seeing that limited incursion into Lebanon underways,

966
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 5: we watch this relationship, there's still the battle being waged

967
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 5: against Hessela as it continues to target Israel, and.

968
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 12: The pages in walkie talkies are a great example of

969
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 12: because it wasn't just people in Lebanon, it was Hamas

970
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 12: people in Lebanon, Hamas fighters, people who were affiliated with

971
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 12: the organization. Those are the people, sorry, yes, thank you,

972
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:25,399
Speaker 12: hes Bla hes Blah fighters. Those are the people who

973
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 12: had those pages in Walkee Talkies. And so it's an

974
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 12: interesting illustration because it does fit Galam's language right of precise,

975
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 12: They won't know, they won't know how it happened. So

976
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 12: I think he is consciously opening up a wide range

977
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 12: of thoughts or concerns or fears for people.

978
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 2: We're waiting for a White House briefing to start here.

979
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 2: How public should Joe Biden be about his motivations right

980
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 2: now on a day when he's on the phone with

981
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 2: Benjamin Netanyah who how much does he need to disclose here,

982
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 2: assuming he wants to have another phone call with Benjamin Debt.

983
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 12: Yet well, part of maintaining a relationship with friends and

984
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 12: adversaries alike goes to the opposite of what you guys want,

985
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 12: which is full you know, which is as much public

986
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 12: disclosure as possible. Right, you have to constantly balance, as

987
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 12: you would when you're having any kind of tough conversation

988
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 12: with anyone in a personal relationship. If you go out

989
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 12: and tell the world about it or complain to all

990
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 12: your friends, you're unlikely to get them to move in

991
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:23,879
Speaker 12: the direction you.

992
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 2: Want, especially if your friends do not corroborate what you're

993
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 2: saying and that's been a recurring scenario for Joe Biden.

994
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 2: I just talked to Bebee, here's the deal, and net

995
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 2: and Yahoo says no, I never made that deal.

996
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 12: So there's definitely a tough call to be made as well.

997
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 12: There's no shortage of tough calls in this situation with

998
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 12: how much you say publicly to let people know there's

999
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 12: progress being made when you know you have a somewhat

1000
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 12: unreliable interlocutor on the other side, or someone who's making

1001
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 12: different calibrations about what they're going to say publicly and privately.

1002
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 5: So we've covered the US Israel relationship, We've covered the

1003
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 5: Iran relifationship even with other countries in the Gulf, and

1004
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 5: you alluded to in part the notion that China is

1005
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 5: part of this and broker in some China and Russians well.

1006
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 5: And when we talk with Republicans, specifically frequently on this

1007
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 5: program who say this administration has been too soft on

1008
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 5: Iran when it comes to sanctions, a lot of the

1009
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 5: impact we see, or the lack of impact, is because

1010
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 5: China is still buying Iranian oil. So as we look

1011
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 5: at this picture across the world, what role does China

1012
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 5: play and what role does Russia play in what comes next?

1013
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 12: Well, I think it's useful to bring up both of

1014
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 12: them because if you look at China buying Irani and oil. Also,

1015
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 12: part of the reason that Russia was able to sow

1016
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 12: quickly essentially defy US and international sanctions or not feel

1017
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 12: the impact was because of the side deals they had

1018
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 12: with China. And China has done it, frankly, very cleverly,

1019
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 12: sidestepping a lot of what international sanctions would be and

1020
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,240
Speaker 12: has given Russia the ability to be able to quickly

1021
00:54:54,360 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 12: rearm itself against Ukraine. And so China is playing is

1022
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 12: playing as is Russia all over the world. Iran is

1023
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 12: busy giving Russia as well munitions, and Russia and Iran

1024
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 12: have had a long standing relationship. So all of these

1025
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 12: actors are at play. It's part of the reason the

1026
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:18,239
Speaker 12: United States needs to look at all elements of its

1027
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 12: national power when it's figuring out how to deal with

1028
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:24,240
Speaker 12: these situations, and why it needs so strongly to maintain

1029
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 12: relationships with allies and partners to count watching.

1030
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: For the readout on this phone call. In the meantime, Mara,

1031
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us and for a

1032
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 2: smart conversation as always here at the table, no less

1033
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,799
Speaker 2: in studio. Amara Rudman, Professor at the Miller Center at

1034
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 2: the University of Virginia, director of the Ripples of Hope

1035
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 2: project focused on democratic solutions. We thank you for a

1036
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: great talk, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1037
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify,

1038
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1039
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, d C. At noontime

1040
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg KA