Speaker 1: Welcome in. We'll drive in the great episode three seventy
Speaker 1: one hour Week four NFL Picks Show, gambling show. This
Speaker 1: episode is brought to you, as always by our friends
Speaker 1: at boost Mobile, and we would greatly appreciate if you like, rate, subscribe,
Speaker 1: review to the pod, and a reminder to all of you.
Speaker 1: All lines are from hard Rock bet all right. Deman's
Speaker 1: last week was a stumble. Your teasers will get to
Speaker 1: him in a minute. No longer undefeated and two. Week three.
Speaker 1: I told you I felt I deserved better than I got.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry week week two, I told you my Week
Speaker 1: two picks. I think we went two and three or
Speaker 1: three and two, it doesn't matter. I felt. I know that,
Speaker 1: I felt like I was on the absolute right side
Speaker 1: on four of those games and got, for lack of
Speaker 1: better term, screwed.
Speaker 2: That happened.
Speaker 1: That is not what happened in week three. My three
Speaker 1: losses in Week three, Demons are as bad a picks
Speaker 1: as anyone's ever gonna have. So we was two and
Speaker 1: three last week, a game under five hundred for the year.
Speaker 1: That part's fine. But these losses, some of them should
Speaker 1: have counted double they were so bad. So let's go
Speaker 1: through them. Green Bay minus seven and a half against Cleveland.
Speaker 1: They lose outright, I lose all my survivors. I'm just
Speaker 1: cooked that they were never covering they I mean they
Speaker 1: were up ten nothing. I guess they were covering briefly.
Speaker 1: That was a terrible pick. Awful job road team against
Speaker 1: a great defense and a look ahead spot. I should
Speaker 1: have known. I took the bait. Somehow, that was my
Speaker 1: best of the bad ones. Tennessee plus three and a
Speaker 1: half against the Colts, pick six, first play of the game.
Speaker 1: Brian call Hand can't figure out how to call a
Speaker 1: field goal unit out there that they kicking just to
Speaker 1: just routed by the Colts. And somehow that wasn't my
Speaker 1: worst one of the day because I laid five points
Speaker 1: with a divisional road favorite with a shaky quarterback, broke
Speaker 1: all the rules I laid. Here's the thing. I for
Speaker 1: my Atlanta minus five bet to win, Carolina would have
Speaker 1: had to score negative six points because Atlanta, I laid
Speaker 1: five points with a team that got shut out and
Speaker 1: allowed thirty That was.
Speaker 2: The weirdest I was. That one was super weird. I
Speaker 2: guess s green Bay Brown is pretty weird.
Speaker 1: But I was thirty five points off on this one.
Speaker 1: I thought Atlanta could win by five. They lost by thirty.
Speaker 1: Just awful. Now the Chargers controlled the early part of
Speaker 1: that game, Denver came back Chargers field goal at the gun,
Speaker 1: so a little lucky there, and then Detroit was clearly
Speaker 1: the right side and it went kind of how I
Speaker 1: thought it was going to go where I was like,
Speaker 1: last team with the ball wins. Detroit ended up adding
Speaker 1: an extra score on it, but they went for that
Speaker 1: fourth down late ice the game. So we go two
Speaker 1: and three this week. Luckily, I feel great.
Speaker 2: I like this week's sleep.
Speaker 1: I feel I feel like we're going to start off
Speaker 1: one to zero before ten am West Coast time because
Speaker 1: there's a London game, and there's a London game we love.
Speaker 1: We will get to that in a moment. First, let
Speaker 1: me remind you guys, today's show was brought to you
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. All right, Deman's let's
Speaker 1: quickly roll through the games that I am not touching. Okay,
Speaker 1: so what is the first? One?
Speaker 2: Thursday night? I guess we talked about now because.
Speaker 1: This is where doing this on a Thursday, but people
Speaker 1: are gonna hear it on Friday. So Thursday night, I
Speaker 1: don't have a lean, I don't have a feel. I'm
Speaker 1: not touching it. You guys will have already heard it.
Speaker 2: You got Washington minus oneed Atlanta stand away from that one.
Speaker 1: Well, that's the line. I don't have the I don't
Speaker 1: have you're just gonna have that. This is one of
Speaker 1: the I guess the downsides to us doing these early.
Speaker 1: We don't know the quarterback situation. I can't give you
Speaker 1: any handicap on it. What I can't tell you is
Speaker 1: Michael Pinnix is very lucky that the Atlanta Falcons don't
Speaker 1: have a real fan base outside of Atlanta, or else
Speaker 1: we'd be talking about it more because he has looked shaky.
Speaker 1: The next game, go ahead.
Speaker 2: New Orleans and Buffalo. New Orleans at Buffalo.
Speaker 1: Yeah, New Orleans getting fifteen and a half, That to
Speaker 1: me is a vintage stay away. It's just so many points.
Speaker 1: Buffalo can dominate this game and should dominate this game,
Speaker 1: and New Orleans can backdoor cover. I just I'm also,
Speaker 1: full disclosure, not gonna be really locked into that game.
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be a seventeen to three early
Speaker 1: second quarter game over game. Next one, you.
Speaker 2: Got Tennessee plus seven at Houston.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I have decided I am not betting on
Speaker 1: Tennessee again with Brian Callahan as the head coach, just
Speaker 1: not doing it until he until he's gone. I will
Speaker 1: not put any money on the Titans. I've made this
Speaker 1: mistake twice this year. I'm not doing it again. With
Speaker 1: that said, I can't lay a touchdown with the Texans
Speaker 1: team that can't score, So that's the definition of a
Speaker 1: stay away. Next.
Speaker 2: Next, the Chargers minus six and a half of the Giants.
Speaker 1: I almost included this one. I almost included the Giants
Speaker 1: six and a half. But it's a rookie quarterback against
Speaker 1: a great defense. It's too many points to lay with
Speaker 1: the Chargers team that's been, you know, been playing very
Speaker 1: tight games. So I'm not going to lay the touchdown
Speaker 1: with the Chargers. I kind of like the Giants, but
Speaker 1: it's a rookie quarterbacks first start against a good defense.
Speaker 1: Will stay away from it.
Speaker 2: Next. Next, you've got Philly minus three and a half
Speaker 2: at Tampa.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Philly is the right side in this,
Speaker 1: but Philly plays so conservatively that laying more than a
Speaker 1: field goal on the road just feels foolish. I can't
Speaker 1: bet Tampa with all those injuries, but if I were
Speaker 1: to Philly, to me, is the right side of it.
Speaker 2: Next, Carolina plus five and a half at New England.
Speaker 1: Gross. Neither these teams is trustworthy. I understand. Carolina just
Speaker 1: scored thirty I think that's, you know, an aberration. The
Speaker 1: Patriots can't you know, just had five turnovers in a game.
Speaker 1: It's just to stay away, just flatly. I'm not interested
Speaker 1: in either team, either side of this game, just flatly
Speaker 1: staying away.
Speaker 2: Next, you got Indie plus three and a half at
Speaker 2: the Rams.
Speaker 1: I lean Rams, but I have you know consistently and
Speaker 1: I you know, what I don't want to do is
Speaker 1: after betting against Indy a couple of times, then overcorrect
Speaker 1: bet on them and have that be the week that
Speaker 1: I'm right about them for the season where any think
Speaker 1: they were that good. But I can't keep betting against them,
Speaker 1: and so I'm very excited to watch that game. If
Speaker 1: Indye wins that game, I will have to take them serious.
Speaker 1: But I'm staying away from that one.
Speaker 2: Next Chicago plus one at the Raiders. I might have
Speaker 2: been wrong about the Raiders. I believed in the Raiders
Speaker 2: going into the year. I thought the defense would be
Speaker 2: better than people said it would be.
Speaker 1: It kind of has been. I thought Gino was a
Speaker 1: huge upgrade aside from Week two he has been I
Speaker 1: might have underrated how awful that offensive line is. With
Speaker 1: that said, because I have some real stakes in the
Speaker 1: ground on the Raiders. I don't want to flip entirely
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden go with the Bears this week.
Speaker 1: So this is just I'm just staying away.
Speaker 2: Sunday night, Green Bay minus six and a half at Dallas.
Speaker 1: If I had to bet a side here, I would
Speaker 1: definitely bet green Bay. I think though Dak Prescott at
Speaker 1: home getting almost a full touchdown back door cover is
Speaker 1: going to be wide open the whole game. I think
Speaker 1: that a blowout is far more likely than a Dallas victory.
Speaker 1: But I just don't want to lay a full touchdown
Speaker 1: on the road in what could be an emotional spot
Speaker 1: for both teams. And I certainly can't bet on Dallas
Speaker 1: after what their defense has been all year long. All right,
Speaker 1: last one we're not doing.
Speaker 2: Uh you got the Jets plus two and a half
Speaker 2: at Miami.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how you can put believe in
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I also don't think you can right now
Speaker 1: bet on the Jets getting less than a field goal.
Speaker 1: So those are stay aways. It's always a good sign,
Speaker 1: Demanse when a few of the stay away games, I
Speaker 1: actually like, it's never a good sign. When we're down
Speaker 1: we're to the fourth pick of my five. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: I just have to have five. It's a great sign
Speaker 1: when there's a game like the Giants getting six and
Speaker 1: a half that I kind of like, or what was
Speaker 1: the other one, Philly laying three and a half that
Speaker 1: I kind of like that. I just am saying, we're
Speaker 1: not doing it because I love these five so much.
Speaker 1: Let's start in Dublin, Demons.
Speaker 2: You've got Minnesota minus two and a half versus pitt
Speaker 2: or Pittsburgh. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they'd be minus more against pitt the College, but
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, I can't believe. I don't have to lay
Speaker 1: a full field goal here. Aaron Rodgers played in overseas
Speaker 1: last year against Minnesota. That was the famous Mike Mike's
Speaker 1: gotta be on the red line game. He turned the
Speaker 1: ball over three times against that Flores defense. I just
Speaker 1: all this Minnesota defense absolutely demolish Jake Browning, who right
Speaker 1: now stylistically is not that dissimilar to Rogers. Accurate, gotta
Speaker 1: get the ball out quick. Favorites and international games are
Speaker 1: covering machines thirty two and eighteen against the spread. Rogers
Speaker 1: has been awful against pressure this year. Bottom three quarterback
Speaker 1: in the league win pressured, and the Vikings are the
Speaker 1: top three in the league at bringing pressure. I love
Speaker 1: Minnesota laying a field laying less than a field goal.
Speaker 1: I understand that means I'm betting Carson Wentz as a favorite.
Speaker 1: I don't care. I'm not betting Carson Wentz. I'm betting
Speaker 1: the Vikings defense minus two and Alfagans Pittsburgh. And I
Speaker 1: don't clip this. We don't want this to be correct,
Speaker 1: but I'm just flagging it. It's on the board. You're
Speaker 1: shaking your head, Demnsey, What do you think I'm gonna
Speaker 1: say here?
Speaker 2: You're gonna say Aaron Rodgers might end his season and
Speaker 2: or something like that.
Speaker 1: You said it. It's on the board against this defense
Speaker 1: with that Pittsburgh offensive line, that this is the last
Speaker 1: we see of Aaron, Like, I think you gotta be
Speaker 1: prepared for that. Like I am legitimately worried for Rogers
Speaker 1: in this game. I don't think that offensive line has
Speaker 1: been good. He's not mobile and they are gonna heat
Speaker 1: him up. So I love Minnesota minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: Next Cleveland plus ten at Detroit.
Speaker 1: So listen, the Cleveland defense is awesome. They're awesome. The
Speaker 1: Lions offensive line was great against Baltimore's D line. Cleveland's
Speaker 1: d line with rookie Mason Graham, who's been great Miles Garrett,
Speaker 1: who's just an all time great, is very different than
Speaker 1: Baltimore's defensive line. I also think you've got Detroit short
Speaker 1: week coming off that emotional win. The trends of teams
Speaker 1: that had a win like Cleveland did an early season touchdown,
Speaker 1: bigger dogs that win a game out right the next week.
Speaker 1: Eighteen nine to four against the spread, I know Detroit's
Speaker 1: been covering machines. Ten is just too many points for
Speaker 1: a game that I think is going to not be
Speaker 1: super high scoring. I think Cleveland's defense can keep them
Speaker 1: in games. Week one, Cleveland defense kept him in the
Speaker 1: Sincy game. Week three, Cleveland's defense one in the game.
Speaker 1: Week four against Baltimore, Cleveland's defense was good. Cleveland had
Speaker 1: more passing yards, rushing yards, third down, more time possession
Speaker 1: than Baltimore. Lost by a million because they had a
Speaker 1: pump blocked, there's a fumble, there's a pick. If Cleveland
Speaker 1: just takes care of the ball, they can keep this
Speaker 1: to within single digits. I'll take Cleveland plus ten next.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jacksonville plus three at the Niners.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I I think that Trevor's going to have time
Speaker 1: to throw with Nicki Bosa out. I also think that
Speaker 1: whether it's Mac Jones or Party, that Jacksonville d line
Speaker 1: is legitimate and is is scary. And I think that
Speaker 1: the Niners, to their credit, have found ways to win.
Speaker 1: They It's been close games, and I think those three
Speaker 1: points are super, super valuable. Now, I will tell you this,
Speaker 1: because we're recording this on Thursday. If you like Jacksonville
Speaker 1: on this spot, I would wait to bet them because
Speaker 1: I think perty is going to play and I think
Speaker 1: that this line goes at least to three and a
Speaker 1: half and maybe to four. But the Niners, it's not
Speaker 1: only that obviously Bosa is out, but as of Wednesday,
Speaker 1: Juwan Jennings and Ricky pearsall weren't practicing. Another defensive lineman,
Speaker 1: Gross Mattos, was not practicing. They Trent Williams the he's
Speaker 1: healthy but and so he didn't practice, but that was
Speaker 1: just rest related. I just I think Jacksonville is as
Speaker 1: good as San Francisco, and I'm getting a field goal.
Speaker 1: I'll take Jacksonville next.
Speaker 2: Can't Who would have known Kansas City plus two and
Speaker 2: a half versus Baltimore.
Speaker 1: I mean, Mahomes doesn't lose to Lamar. The Ravens are
Speaker 1: on a short week. The Ravens D line Wednesday, demanday,
Speaker 1: every single one of the Ravens starting d linemen misspractice,
Speaker 1: every single one. We know Mattebouquet is not playing, and
Speaker 1: that's a bigger story for them for the whole season
Speaker 1: because he might be. His neck injury is like really scary.
Speaker 1: But the Chiefs are at home. I believe the Chiefs
Speaker 1: are better than Baltimore. The Chiefs need it. They are
Speaker 1: getting Xavier Worthy back. They are the more rested team,
Speaker 1: they are the more put together team right now. They
Speaker 1: are the team that comes into this game more confident.
Speaker 1: And I I think the Lamar versus the Chiefs thing
Speaker 1: is real. And the fact that I am getting points
Speaker 1: in Kansas City against a Ravens team that right now
Speaker 1: has the worst defense in the conference. I'll just take it.
Speaker 1: And Patrick, by the way five and one in his
Speaker 1: career against Lamar, four and two against the spread. I'll
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs here. This is also where you and
Speaker 1: I need to discuss.
Speaker 2: That two oh yeah, oh what do you want to line.
Speaker 1: So what do you if the Ravens win? What do
Speaker 1: you want from me?
Speaker 2: The best thing I could think of, I mean this
Speaker 2: is way later down the road. I think this is
Speaker 2: in March. Grand Theft Auto six is coming out, and
Speaker 2: the prices of games these days gone up. Used to
Speaker 2: be sixty, it's like seventy now. But that's like a
Speaker 2: game everybody's been waiting on, so that one might be
Speaker 2: like one hundred dollars. So I would love to like
Speaker 2: not have to come out of pocket for Grand that
Speaker 2: was six when the game straight up?
Speaker 1: All right, So if the Ravens win the game straight up,
Speaker 1: this is a straight.
Speaker 2: Up bet, not ah, not spread. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Is there anything else game related that you're gonna want
Speaker 1: when that comes out? Like a headset or anything else related? Like,
Speaker 1: I don't know how Grand Theft works these days, is there?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, if you want to throw some extra money,
Speaker 2: I could buy a Shark card, throw some money on there.
Speaker 2: Immediately it's like, what's a card? It's like, okay, it's
Speaker 2: like in game currency five million, It's like what's it
Speaker 2: v bucks exactly exactly. It's great, okay, done, Here's what
Speaker 2: I want from you? Okay, whatever the next holiday you
Speaker 2: come home for from all.
Speaker 1: Of my all of my kitchen clean up responsibilities fall
Speaker 1: to you. Okay, not for the whole time. What whe
Speaker 1: there it's Thanksgiving dinner or Christmas dinner, whatever, big, the big,
Speaker 1: the one big meal. Kitchen clean up responsibilities are yours
Speaker 1: and yours like you, there's not gonna be any you're
Speaker 1: gonna have. You're the one that tells your mom I
Speaker 1: lost a bet. I have to do this. He's not
Speaker 1: allowed to.
Speaker 2: Yeh, I'll take it. Thanksgiving is rough.
Speaker 1: But that's why I added that short card, because yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: all right, we have a best all right, all right deal,
Speaker 1: all right, what's the last pick of the way?
Speaker 2: Last pick is Cincinnati plus seven and a half at Denver.
Speaker 1: I couldn't believe this line. I couldn't believe it. Listen,
Speaker 1: I understand Cincinnati has not looked good with Browning. I
Speaker 1: get that he's not gonna turn the ball over three
Speaker 1: times every game. They still have those skill position guys Denver.
Speaker 1: Why would you trust Denver to blow anybody out like
Speaker 1: I just I'm getting more than a touchdown. Cincinnati plus
Speaker 1: seven and a half in a game, I think they
Speaker 1: could win outright, so yeah, I don't overthink this one.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus seven and a half, they can win outright
Speaker 1: if Pat Sartan's not playing great, Denver's offense is shaky
Speaker 1: at best. Yes, give me the seven and a half.
Speaker 1: All right? So our five picks this week four dogs,
Speaker 1: one favorite in Ireland, Minnesota minus two and a half
Speaker 1: against Bitsburgh, Cleveland getting tanneg at Detroit, Jacksonville getting three
Speaker 1: at San Francisco, Kansas City getting two and a half
Speaker 1: at home against Baltimore, and Cincinnati getting seven and a
Speaker 1: half at Denver. Before we get to Demanse's teaser, let
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Speaker 1: do apply, all right, Demanse, you took one on the
Speaker 1: chin last week with the teaser three team eight pointer. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was plus eleven was a great one. Houston plus ten.
Speaker 1: I don't we can show Houston plus ten solid Cincinnati
Speaker 1: plus eleven. Brian Flores did it to your pal?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was That was just a problem in my
Speaker 2: process there. I should have There were a lot of
Speaker 2: other games on the slate that I could have chosen
Speaker 2: Cincinnati after dealing with the backup quarterback in their second game,
Speaker 2: there's this other landscape I should have chosen differently, and
Speaker 2: you could have doubled the teaser and it STI would
Speaker 2: have lost. But this week is a three team eight
Speaker 2: point teaser for plus one hundred. We were teasing Kansas
Speaker 2: City up to plus ten and a half, the Jets
Speaker 2: up to plus ten and a half, and Green Bay
Speaker 2: up to plus one and a half.
Speaker 1: I am aware, yeah, that way till one and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm aware that the Browns are out there. That
Speaker 2: was another another one that I liked a lot. I
Speaker 2: would have liked to tease that one. But this is
Speaker 2: the one that we're going with. I don't see green
Speaker 2: Bay losing that game. And but yeah, I.
Speaker 1: Agree with that. I listen, Kansas City doesn't get blown out.
Speaker 1: Green Bay is not gonna lose. You're also not getting
Speaker 1: as much value if you do Cleveland because you're not
Speaker 1: getting through as key of numbers. With the Jets, you
Speaker 1: get through all the key numbers. And the question is
Speaker 1: can the Dolphins blow anybody out? The answer that's probably no,
Speaker 1: because you are teasing through the zero. I can't give
Speaker 1: you a straight A. I will give you an a minus.
Speaker 1: I like this one a lot. Okay, I like this
Speaker 1: one a lot. Producers, you guys had in there an
Speaker 1: offer earlier that I was going to take. Oh wow,
Speaker 1: the the and it's gone now. So see, so demons,
Speaker 1: let's go to the offer that they the offers they
Speaker 1: have in there now, and I'm gonna tell you if
Speaker 1: I'll take those as well. But there is one that
Speaker 1: I'm interested in.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you said that this was time for Kelsey
Speaker 2: to use one of his good games. So Kelsey six
Speaker 2: plus receptions is at plus two thirty or if you
Speaker 2: want to get really spicy and dangerous with it, you
Speaker 2: can go Kelsey eight plus receptions for plus nine hundred.
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna take either one of those. But
Speaker 1: they had in there earlier, like Kelsey here it is.
Speaker 1: This one is plus money, and I like it a lot.
Speaker 1: I like this offer, and I'm gonna take this offer.
Speaker 1: You got it? Demanse Yeah.
Speaker 2: Oh so Kelsey four plus receptions and Parsons over to
Speaker 2: have a sack at plus one forty six.
Speaker 1: So half a sack over half a sack. So that
Speaker 1: so if he gets half a sack, we don't lose it.
Speaker 1: Ohka reduces. Yeah, because you can get half sacks. So
Speaker 1: Kelsey have at least four catches Micah over half a
Speaker 1: sack plus one forty six. I am taking that offer.
Speaker 1: I think Kelsey's gonna have at least four catches. I
Speaker 1: think Micah will get home at least once. I'm taking
Speaker 1: that offer. Done and done first off the year that
Speaker 1: we're taking. I love it all right. Thank you to
Speaker 1: all our great sponsors, Thank you to Blue Duck, thank
Speaker 1: you to Volume, thank you to all you guys. Please
Speaker 1: like great, subscribe review. Good luck to everybody this week
Speaker 1: and Ryder Cup. Amazing day of college football on Saturday,
Speaker 1: Ireland game Sunday morning, Chiefs Ravens Sunday afternoon. Great weekend
Speaker 1: of football. Talk to you guys later. What's right? All right?
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, appreciate you guys. Gotta run bye,