1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:07,480
Speaker 1: What's two three Brits down in the middle of the fie?

2
00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: Hello's football? Who's got it down in the one yard line?

3
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:17,360
Speaker 2: How about that?

4
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:25,640
Speaker 3: That is the ultimate kabash and we are underway.

5
00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,480
Speaker 4: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action Network NFL podcast.

6
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,560
Speaker 4: It is the week fifteen Friday Show. I'm Matthew Friedman,

7
00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,239
Speaker 4: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and joining me

8
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 4: to break down the weekends action Its Chris Raybond, a

9
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 4: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network at a

10
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,960
Speaker 4: co host, I'll take that bets on ESPN Plus. You

11
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:48,159
Speaker 4: can follow him in the Action Network app at Chris Raybon. Chris,

12
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,199
Speaker 4: it is the season forgiving, so right now we are

13
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,080
Speaker 4: giving away a free Action Network subscription to a listener,

14
00:00:55,240 --> 00:01:00,680
Speaker 4: a lucky listener, and that person is Andrew Farren. Andrew,

15
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:05,360
Speaker 4: you have just won an Action Network Edge subscription. If

16
00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 4: you want more information on that, email us at podcast

17
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,520
Speaker 4: at Actionnetwork dot com. That is the plural podcast. We're

18
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,120
Speaker 4: going to give away some more subs in becoming episodes,

19
00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,679
Speaker 4: So if you want a shot at one of those

20
00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,039
Speaker 4: free subscriptions, follow Chris, follow me, and also our co

21
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,480
Speaker 4: host Peter, Jenny and Shawn Corner and Ian Hartitz in

22
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,399
Speaker 4: the Action Network app. Rate to interview the podcast on

23
00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,360
Speaker 4: iTunes and send a screenshot of the follows and review

24
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,120
Speaker 4: to podcasts at actionnetwork dot com, and then listen to

25
00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,959
Speaker 4: future shows to hear if you are the lucky recipient. Also,

26
00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,080
Speaker 4: right now I should mention we are running our biggest

27
00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,920
Speaker 4: sale ever on the premium Edge product in honor of

28
00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,640
Speaker 4: the forty college bowl games. And by the way, those

29
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,280
Speaker 4: are kicking off on Saturday. We have breakdowns for all

30
00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 4: of those games. You can subscribe to Action Network for

31
00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 4: a year, an entire calendar year, for just forty dollars.

32
00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:56,280
Speaker 4: I think this is a great way to lock in

33
00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 4: a subscription for next year's football season. And also you

34
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,720
Speaker 4: can get access to all the bowl game and NFL

35
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,200
Speaker 4: postseason content. And then I think just kind of like

36
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,520
Speaker 4: the gravy on top of all of that is just

37
00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 4: for forty dollars. You get all of our NBA content, PGA,

38
00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:15,080
Speaker 4: MLB Soccer, MMA, all of our content for just forty dollars,

39
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,520
Speaker 4: So a great deal. Head over to Action Network to

40
00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,799
Speaker 4: get your forty dollars year long subscription. Chris, you did

41
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,760
Speaker 4: the Monday Show with Ian who happened to be on

42
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:25,560
Speaker 4: the Wednesday show.

43
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:26,480
Speaker 3: That was great.

44
00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 4: Everyone should check that out. Let's kick off the Friday

45
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,680
Speaker 4: Show by looking back at week fourteen, which I don't

46
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,959
Speaker 4: really want to do because we all know how that went.

47
00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 3: What you're wing for in too.

48
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,680
Speaker 4: I went to and four you are good looking, I

49
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,080
Speaker 4: am not. You beat me head to head and picking

50
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,800
Speaker 4: San Francisco versus Denver. You were right, I was wrong.

51
00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:54,200
Speaker 4: You had Chicago. I had the Los Angeles Rams. That

52
00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 4: didn't go well for me. I was on the right

53
00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 4: side of Indianapolis going over there total and hit the

54
00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,959
Speaker 4: over for that game. Here's one thing I noticed, small sample,

55
00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,519
Speaker 4: of course, but I went to and oh when picking

56
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,560
Speaker 4: a team total and oh and four the spread.

57
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,919
Speaker 5: Because all of your I gets the spread picks start

58
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 5: the exact same way. It's like, I know I'm not

59
00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:17,520
Speaker 5: on the sharp side.

60
00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,560
Speaker 3: I have the squarest tendency.

61
00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,959
Speaker 4: The thing is like, I think I'm decent at being

62
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,960
Speaker 4: able to kind of spot when teams will be like

63
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 4: in good situations or bad situations, kind of like in

64
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,280
Speaker 4: a vacuum, but not good at comparing that to what

65
00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,320
Speaker 4: will happen on the other side for the team, you know,

66
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 4: So like I think it's just kind of it's harder

67
00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 4: for me to pick the matchups versus just thinking of

68
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,560
Speaker 4: like what will happen with this offense versus this defense?

69
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,920
Speaker 4: So uh, in general, just it brings it back home.

70
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,680
Speaker 4: I need to stick to the team totals and I

71
00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 4: need to avoid against the spread when possible.

72
00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,640
Speaker 5: Ah, I was having fun. I was having fun picking

73
00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,080
Speaker 5: against you with your head to heads man.

74
00:03:59,160 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah.

75
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 4: So well, I'm sure that the fun will continue. I'm

76
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,840
Speaker 4: such a donkey that I probably will venture back into

77
00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,440
Speaker 4: some against the spread picks. Okay, let's get into our

78
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,960
Speaker 4: opening first and five segment. We're going to break down

79
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,200
Speaker 4: the five games that right now are getting the most

80
00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,000
Speaker 4: action and the action network gap, and let's start with

81
00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,760
Speaker 4: this is. I mean, it's not the game of the week,

82
00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,680
Speaker 4: but it's a great game. Cowboys a Colts Colts favored

83
00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,440
Speaker 4: by three a forty seven point over under. The majority

84
00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,480
Speaker 4: of the money right now is on the Colts and

85
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,320
Speaker 4: also on the under. The Cowboys have won five in

86
00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 4: a row. They have a two game lead in the

87
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 4: NFC East Bath, but they are two and four on

88
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,040
Speaker 4: the road. The Colts have won six to seven games

89
00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:38,279
Speaker 4: and are coming off a convincing twenty four to twenty

90
00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 4: one victory the Texans, no big deal, breaking the Texans

91
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 4: nine game winning streak in the process. The Colts are

92
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,320
Speaker 4: in the running for the number six seed in the

93
00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,200
Speaker 4: AFC at seven and six, Chris.

94
00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 3: What are you doing with this game?

95
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 5: So I think when you look at this game, first thing,

96
00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,280
Speaker 5: you kind of look at the tote for the Colts

97
00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 5: and you say, okay, and they could probably they could

98
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,480
Speaker 5: probably cover this. You know, I think there will be

99
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,520
Speaker 5: some overreaction to Dallas, as you mentioned, going on the

100
00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,600
Speaker 5: hot streak, But at the same time, you know, I

101
00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:12,440
Speaker 5: think Dallas is there have been tangible, tangible improvements with

102
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,480
Speaker 5: the Dallas Cowboys when we talk about Amari Cooper and

103
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,640
Speaker 5: what he's given that offense and on defense as well,

104
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,000
Speaker 5: with the linebackers and Van dersh really playing well. So

105
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 5: I'm thinking about this and the under for this game,

106
00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:28,800
Speaker 5: because if you look at Dak Prescott in his career,

107
00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 5: just the Cowboys are still you know, that game against Philadelphia,

108
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,599
Speaker 5: I mean, we're well, I have the over in that game,

109
00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,520
Speaker 5: and like I thought, I was done by by like

110
00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,640
Speaker 5: this end of the first quarter, because it was I

111
00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,599
Speaker 5: think it was three nothing, it was about three. It

112
00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 5: was like a single digit score into the fourth or

113
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,680
Speaker 5: into the Wight third, and then you know they they

114
00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 5: team started going back and forth. But you know, I

115
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,320
Speaker 5: don't necessarily think that that's always going to be the case.

116
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,400
Speaker 5: We saw the coach kind of go under last week.

117
00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,200
Speaker 5: It's kind of a fine line they're toning where they're

118
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,039
Speaker 5: playing excellent situational football, playing you know, one of the

119
00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,120
Speaker 5: top third down teams, one of the top red zone teams.

120
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,440
Speaker 5: Dallas defense on defense has been able to limit that somewhat.

121
00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,200
Speaker 5: So I think that I see a little bit more

122
00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,479
Speaker 5: It's a pretty good line both ways with the spread

123
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,400
Speaker 5: and over under, I think, but I see a little

124
00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:17,279
Speaker 5: bit more value here on the under, which is twenty

125
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 5: seven and eighteen and Dak Prescott's career.

126
00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:20,719
Speaker 3: Yeah.

127
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,839
Speaker 4: So I mean, you know me, I am a self

128
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 4: loathing Cowboys fan. I have really tried to remain level

129
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:32,159
Speaker 4: headed and if anything Cowboys hating during this five game

130
00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,720
Speaker 4: winning streak, I don't know, maybe it's just something because

131
00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 4: like it's not that I hate the Eagles, but it's

132
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,240
Speaker 4: just for the Cowboys to beat the Eagles two times

133
00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,839
Speaker 4: in one year, Like that's you know that's a thing,

134
00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,080
Speaker 4: Like that's a sign kind of just in general, that

135
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:48,279
Speaker 4: this Cowboys team is not a total mirage. So I've

136
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,920
Speaker 4: gone from kind of trying to be like keeping them

137
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 4: at arm's length to being like, Okay, I kind of

138
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,120
Speaker 4: believe in this team, and this is a sign of

139
00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,440
Speaker 4: how bad my read is on this team. I thought

140
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,200
Speaker 4: they should be favored in this game. Like, if you

141
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,560
Speaker 4: had told me one of these teams is going to

142
00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,000
Speaker 4: enter this game favored by three, I would have said

143
00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 4: it was the Cowboys. Like I just like, I can't

144
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 4: be objective about this team, basically, that's what I'm saying.

145
00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,960
Speaker 4: But I do think pretty highly of this defense. And

146
00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 4: the offense has obviously been transformed with the addition of

147
00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 4: Mariy Cooper, which I think, like in general, kind of

148
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:28,000
Speaker 4: speaks to the importance of the passing game in this league.

149
00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,760
Speaker 4: Like the Cowboys spent the number four overall pick on

150
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,960
Speaker 4: Ezekiel Elliott. They've tried to run the system with him

151
00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,640
Speaker 4: where he's just getting the ball forty times per game,

152
00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,880
Speaker 4: and that hasn't worked, except when they've had a legitimate

153
00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 4: wide receiver on the team, you know, like Amari Cooper

154
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 4: comes in and he opens things up for the rest

155
00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,720
Speaker 4: of the team. So that's like on the offensive side,

156
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 4: but on the defensive side, I think pretty highly of

157
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,920
Speaker 4: what they are doing. And like it's weird to say

158
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,000
Speaker 4: that an off ball linebacker is really important to the

159
00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 4: defense because I think in general, like that's one of

160
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,720
Speaker 4: the least important positions on a defense. In like the

161
00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,600
Speaker 4: modern NFL, quarnerbacks are really important and edge rushers are

162
00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,680
Speaker 4: really important. But for the Cowboys defense, like Shawn Lee

163
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,960
Speaker 4: is really important. And in previous seasons when he was out,

164
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,280
Speaker 4: that defense was just total trash. And now with Jalen

165
00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,240
Speaker 4: Smith kind of finally recovering from that college injury that

166
00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,520
Speaker 4: he suffered and with the addition of Leyton Vanderesh, like,

167
00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,080
Speaker 4: this defense is actually still a pretty good unit even

168
00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,760
Speaker 4: when Shawn Lee isn't there. So I'm taking the under

169
00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,920
Speaker 4: on the team total for Indianapolis. And part of it

170
00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:38,760
Speaker 4: is also because we don't know what's going on with

171
00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,000
Speaker 4: t Y Hilton. He's missed practice for two days straight.

172
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,800
Speaker 4: I'm imagining that he's going to play, but there's still

173
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,720
Speaker 4: a possibility that he doesn't play. Even if he does play,

174
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,320
Speaker 4: maybe he's not at his best and the Cowboys. Looking

175
00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 4: at what their opponents have done, they have been the

176
00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,000
Speaker 4: number one team in the league at holding their opponents

177
00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,679
Speaker 4: under their implied total, just based on kind of like

178
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,920
Speaker 4: a points per game metric. So I'm gonna take the

179
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,840
Speaker 4: under here. I don't want to take against the spread

180
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,760
Speaker 4: picking the Cowboys. If I had to, I probably would

181
00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 4: take the Cowboys, although I know that's the donkey side

182
00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,559
Speaker 4: of this, but I'm going to take the under. I

183
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 4: could see it being as you are picking the under

184
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,480
Speaker 4: for the game, I could see it being a lower

185
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:21,680
Speaker 4: scoring game in general.

186
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:23,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, And just to go back one real quick to

187
00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,080
Speaker 5: your point on Amari, and you know how how much

188
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,360
Speaker 5: you know receivers in a passing game, manager, there has

189
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,920
Speaker 5: been like a bunch of that renewed chatter about pass

190
00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 5: versus run. So I went back and actually ran the

191
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,240
Speaker 5: correlations for this season only because I feel like this

192
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,120
Speaker 5: season has been such a kind of unique season, and

193
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,560
Speaker 5: you know, the teams and offenses are ever evolving, and

194
00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,839
Speaker 5: so just looking at it from this season alone, net

195
00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,240
Speaker 5: yards per pass attempt has a point six to four

196
00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 5: are squared, So that's a sixty four percent of the variance.

197
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,199
Speaker 5: That's not even a correlation, which would be absolutely be

198
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,560
Speaker 5: a little higher. But point sixty four are squared two

199
00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 5: point differential, so net yards and a top point sixty

200
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,679
Speaker 5: four yard per carry only point one to one. And

201
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,360
Speaker 5: then early down pass rate so first the second down

202
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,960
Speaker 5: pass rates positive is a point seven are squared in

203
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,679
Speaker 5: favor of passing, So teams that are passing more hon

204
00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 5: early downs and teams that can gain more yardage with

205
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,360
Speaker 5: the pass overall have been by far the more successful teams.

206
00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:20,840
Speaker 5: And it's not even even close.

207
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like it's not a coincidence that Amari Cooper

208
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,680
Speaker 4: since he joined the Cowboys has led the league in

209
00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 4: receiving and receiving touchdowns, and that kind of correlated with that.

210
00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:36,120
Speaker 4: You have seen Ezekiel Elliott's fantasy production just skyrocket, Like

211
00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,040
Speaker 4: those two things are correlated, you know.

212
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,600
Speaker 5: So yeah, oh, I just don't say one thing like that.

213
00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,559
Speaker 5: It doesn't make me feel great about like the dack trend,

214
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:47,400
Speaker 5: you know, with because I think it's a kind of

215
00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,800
Speaker 5: a new offense with the Marios. But the one thing

216
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:51,920
Speaker 5: I will say is that you know that last game

217
00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,080
Speaker 5: against Philly, for example, you know it ended up being

218
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,560
Speaker 5: a tie, which you know kind of raised the score up,

219
00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,560
Speaker 5: and also Amari was scoring, you know, like a eighty

220
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:01,600
Speaker 5: R touch Like these things are hard to repeat. So

221
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,120
Speaker 5: I think even with you know, Amari here, I don't

222
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,520
Speaker 5: think he scores like an eighty R touchdown every game.

223
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I still, if I had to take a side,

224
00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 4: I still like the DAC under just as a general principle.

225
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,360
Speaker 4: The second game, we were talking about the Seahawks at

226
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:17,160
Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers. Seahawks favored by three and a

227
00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,000
Speaker 4: half a forty four point over under. The spread is

228
00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,120
Speaker 4: down from five and a half. The super majority of

229
00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:25,200
Speaker 4: the money is backing the forty nine ers. The sharp

230
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,559
Speaker 4: money is definitely on the forty nine Ers. The Seahawks

231
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 4: have won four straight and are almost a lock to

232
00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,200
Speaker 4: make the playoffs at eight and five. The forty nine

233
00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,320
Speaker 4: Ers are coming off of a big home win last

234
00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,640
Speaker 4: week against the motivated Broncos. This is a rematch of

235
00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 4: the seahawks forty three to sixteen Week thirteen home victory.

236
00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 3: It's pretty rare to have two.

237
00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,760
Speaker 4: Teams playing each other just kind of two weeks apart,

238
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,440
Speaker 4: but the NFL has started to do that more recently.

239
00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:51,440
Speaker 3: Chris, what are your thoughts on this game?

240
00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,880
Speaker 5: You know, this one was I kind of figured I

241
00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 5: was gonna end up on Seattle here, because you know,

242
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 5: I was on fan franlinelast week. Usually in these kind

243
00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:06,040
Speaker 5: of situations, a team like San Francisco quote unquote surprises

244
00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,040
Speaker 5: and get gets kind of an upset win, and then

245
00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,679
Speaker 5: they get overrated. But you know, the more I look

246
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,439
Speaker 5: at this game and the more I look at these

247
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,520
Speaker 5: two teams, you know, Seattle is another team kind of

248
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 5: like the Colts, where they's just a really thin line

249
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,960
Speaker 5: between them having a lot of success and them face planning.

250
00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,640
Speaker 5: And I think you saw and I think that's why

251
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,960
Speaker 5: people were getting fired in Minnesota after that Monday night game,

252
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:36,400
Speaker 5: because that game was there for Minnesota. I mean, we

253
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 5: had to be what the third quarter, and they hadn't

254
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:39,960
Speaker 5: done a thing all game, and they were down like

255
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,440
Speaker 5: six nothing, one touchdown and they ended the lead and

256
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,320
Speaker 5: they couldn't do it. Russell Wilson, I mean throws one

257
00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,679
Speaker 5: of the worst inter sessions I've ever seen in my life.

258
00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 5: And this is coming from a quarterback who we saw

259
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,000
Speaker 5: throw a Super Bowl away. So I gotta go San

260
00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,120
Speaker 5: Francisco here. I actually have this game in my model

261
00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,680
Speaker 5: edge San Francisco out right, So I don't hate the

262
00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,199
Speaker 5: money line either. For this game. San Francisco is better

263
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,400
Speaker 5: on first downs per play, which is another one of

264
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,880
Speaker 5: those metrics when you look at point differential, one of

265
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,000
Speaker 5: the highest correlated metrics you'll find. So first downs per play,

266
00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:17,079
Speaker 5: San Francisco's better on both offense and defense, so they

267
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,560
Speaker 5: more first downs per playing on offense for San fran

268
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,680
Speaker 5: than Seattle's offense, and less first downs per play allowed

269
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,120
Speaker 5: on defense than Seattle's defense. San Francisco is better in

270
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 5: terms of net yard per pass, whether you're looking at

271
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 5: full season including Jimmy g and BETHI where, whether you're

272
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,720
Speaker 5: just looking at Nick Mullins, whether you're looking at Nick

273
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 5: Mullins without the Raider game included, anyway you slice it,

274
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,640
Speaker 5: they're better in that they're at home. Wouldn't be surprised

275
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,200
Speaker 5: if Russell Wilson Pos went out of another one out,

276
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 5: but the last game, I'm not taking that score too seriously.

277
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,920
Speaker 5: There was a ninety eight yard return by Bobby Wagner.

278
00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:50,520
Speaker 5: A lot of turnovers, which are the thing that I

279
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,959
Speaker 5: think would do San Fran in, but those are kind

280
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,320
Speaker 5: of hard to reliably predict, so you kind of got

281
00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,439
Speaker 5: to regress those to the meaning a little bit when

282
00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 5: you kind of project them. I'm taking San Fran anything

283
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,559
Speaker 5: more than a field goal. It's still at three and

284
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,640
Speaker 5: a half, So taking San Fran again.

285
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:05,640
Speaker 3: I mean, So, here's the thing.

286
00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 4: I wouldn't actually bet on this game, but for the

287
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 4: purposes of our little back and forth here, there's no

288
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,760
Speaker 4: way I want San Francisco. And like I understand I should.

289
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:23,080
Speaker 4: I know, I know I said it last week, but

290
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 4: there's still no way I want Cisco. I don't want

291
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,760
Speaker 4: the third string quarterback on a team that is motivated

292
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 4: to lose. And I know that from like the player perspective,

293
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,720
Speaker 4: like the eleven guys on the field on any given play,

294
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 4: they are trying their hardest. But actually I want to

295
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,840
Speaker 4: question that a little bit, like like I want to

296
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,880
Speaker 4: question it. So one is Shanahan in certain situations, is

297
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:49,000
Speaker 4: he motivated to be as aggressive as possible? I don't

298
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,160
Speaker 4: think so. And then a player on a what are

299
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,480
Speaker 4: they now? Are they three and ten? On a three

300
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,880
Speaker 4: and ten team? A player like at some point maybe

301
00:14:57,920 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 4: it's like, you know, I'm not going to run as hard.

302
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,080
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna try to like put my body in

303
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 4: a position where I might get injured, Like I'm gonna

304
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,520
Speaker 4: make a business decision because like I'm not in a

305
00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 4: position to put my team into the playoffs if I

306
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,280
Speaker 4: make this tackle, you know what I mean? Like, I

307
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 4: think there are some points, like just a little bit,

308
00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:14,800
Speaker 4: even if it's like these guys are just playing at

309
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 4: ninety eight percent capacity instead of one hundred percent capacity,

310
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 4: Like these are guys who are not entirely motivated to win.

311
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 4: So I want to take the maybe borderline Hall of

312
00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,480
Speaker 4: Fame quarterback getting three or getting three and a half

313
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,320
Speaker 4: points against a third string quarterback on a team that

314
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 4: is not good and has reasons to lose. Okay, our

315
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:41,560
Speaker 4: third game here, Packers at Bears. Bears favored by six.

316
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 4: And by the way, there's an article at Action that

317
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 4: we're talking about how this is the first time in

318
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,920
Speaker 4: almost a decade that Aaron Rodgers has been an underdog

319
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 4: to the Bears. But the total is down for forty

320
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 4: six and a half. Almost all of the money is

321
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 4: on the under The Packers are coming off a win

322
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 4: in their first game without head coach Mike McCarthy. They

323
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 4: are still technically in the running for a playoff spot

324
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 4: at five seven and one. The Bears can clinch the

325
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 4: NFC ors with the win. They're coming off and emboldening

326
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,600
Speaker 4: fifteen to six home victory over the Rams. This is

327
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 4: a rematch of the Week one game, on which the

328
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 4: Packers came back to win twenty four to twenty three.

329
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers returned from injury famously to lead the team

330
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: to victory. Should be a very interesting game. These two

331
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,320
Speaker 4: teams are in very different places than where they were

332
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 4: in Week one.

333
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 3: Chris, what are your thoughts here?

334
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 5: I think I'm getting off Chicago here. I think I'm

335
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 5: going with Green Bay. I think it's a little bit

336
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 5: inflated in favor of the Bears, you know, National TV,

337
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,280
Speaker 5: big win in a spot again where a lot of

338
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,120
Speaker 5: people didn't expect them to cover, no less win the game.

339
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 5: And so I think that this line there's probably a

340
00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 5: point inflated at least, which is interesting because usually you

341
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 5: see it the other way in Packers games. Usually see

342
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 5: Packers lines inflated. But I don't think this to be

343
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 5: the case. I'm a little bit worried about that the

344
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 5: Bears offense, I mean, Mitchell Trubrisky might not be one

345
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 5: hundred percent healthy. The Bears offense didn't play very well

346
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,919
Speaker 5: at all against the Rams. And you know, I know

347
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 5: the Rams have a key to lead back, but that's

348
00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 5: still a defense that they should have been able to

349
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 5: put up to do more damage against them. Green Bay

350
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,760
Speaker 5: can get some pressure on a quarterback, will be a

351
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 5: little tougher, you know, not in Green Bay, but Aaron

352
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,959
Speaker 5: Rodgers new life, you know, without without Mike McCarthy here,

353
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,719
Speaker 5: I don't think we quite know what to expect. I

354
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,119
Speaker 5: expect them to keep it close, and I don't trust

355
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 5: going on the under the unders probably the sharp play

356
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 5: because they could have another game like last week, but

357
00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 5: I don't trust it with with this, you know, not

358
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 5: knowing exactly what this Green Bay offense is going to

359
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 5: be now, you know, without McCarthy, it's not going to

360
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 5: be quite as conservative. And you have at Aaron Rodgers

361
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,679
Speaker 5: and just I mean against a divisional opponent with a

362
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 5: sliver of playoff hope. I got to back Rogers here.

363
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, I am very much with you on this. The

364
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,119
Speaker 4: one thing that gives me pause is that Trubisky is

365
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,120
Speaker 4: very like he's very night and day. He's very volatile.

366
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:03,400
Speaker 4: It's hard to know which version of the Bears offense

367
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,679
Speaker 4: he is going to allow to show up with his play.

368
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,080
Speaker 4: So I could see the Bears putting up a lot

369
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 4: of points. I could see them putting up very few points,

370
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So that makes me very

371
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,199
Speaker 4: nervous about this spread. But I am with you in

372
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,119
Speaker 4: your analysis of the Packers themselves. Right now, the imply

373
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,160
Speaker 4: total is nineteen and a half points. I feel very

374
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 4: confident that a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers, where he

375
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 4: has a healthy number one receiver, he has a good

376
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,840
Speaker 4: running back with him, that team can score twenty points.

377
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,640
Speaker 4: That team should be able to score twenty points, I think,

378
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 4: almost regardless of who they're playing. And I have respect

379
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 4: for the Bears defense in PFF coverage grade. They're number

380
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 4: one in DVA, number one overall from the defensive perspective.

381
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 4: I respect that unit. Still, Aaron Rodgers should be able

382
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 4: to score twenty points against the best defense in the league,

383
00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 4: even if you think they are the best defense in

384
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 4: the league. Like, that's the side I clearly want to

385
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 4: go on. I'm taking the over on Green Bay very easily.

386
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna say that's my favorite bet of the week,

387
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 4: but like I am actually betting that, you know what

388
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 4: I mean? Like I feel confident in that.

389
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not mad at you because I think you

390
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 5: know all these stats about the Bears and whatnot. They

391
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 5: start with you start with a plus seven, like a

392
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,920
Speaker 5: seven point handicap anytime you're facing Aaron Rodgers because DeVante Adams,

393
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 5: just pencil him in for a touchdown, like just right right, yeah,

394
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 5: just penclerm in, Like I don't care who the defender is.

395
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 5: I mean, he scored. I believe it's in eleven of

396
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 5: fourteen games this year. I want to say, I don't

397
00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 5: have it in front of me, but.

398
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, since twenty sixteen, he leads the league in receptions

399
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 4: or sorry, receiving touchdowns, you know. So it's it's a thing,

400
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 4: like he's the only wide receiver in the last three

401
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 4: years to have ten plus touchdowns each year. So yeah,

402
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 4: you lock him in for a certain number of touchdown

403
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 4: equity each game, Like he has a high likelihood of scoring.

404
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 5: Three of the games he hasn't scored it, so he

405
00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 5: scored in ten to thirteen.

406
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, all right, next game here, Patriots at Steelers.

407
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 4: Patriots favored by two, a fifty two point over under.

408
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 4: Almost all of the money is on the Pats. The

409
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 4: Sharps will presumably be on the Steelers at the Action Network.

410
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 4: Right now, we have an article pointing out that, based

411
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 4: on our power rankings, the Steelers are the most underrated

412
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 4: team of the week. Of course, from a betting perspective,

413
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 4: the Patriots are coming off a devastating road loss, a

414
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 4: last second road loss to the Dolphins. The Steelers have

415
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 4: lost three games in a row. They are at risk

416
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 4: of losing the AFC North and falling out of the

417
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 4: playoffs altogether. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a rib injury.

418
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 4: He is expected to play, but running back James Connor

419
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 4: is expected to sit with an ankle injury.

420
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,199
Speaker 3: Chris, give it to me, what do you think of

421
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 3: this game?

422
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 5: This is gonna be an interesting game. I think you know,

423
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,239
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is a sharp play here. They should probably be.

424
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 5: It should probably no worse than a pick them, even

425
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh favorite. But I think kind of the uncertainty was

426
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 5: big Ben and the loss to the Raiders kind of

427
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 5: is depressing that a little bit. That being said, don't

428
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 5: want to back Pittsburgh in this spot because they always

429
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 5: seem to find a way to do something stupid against

430
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 5: the Patriots or either that or to just get out

431
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 5: coached by the Patriots. I mean you have Tom win

432
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 5: On maybe on the hot seat right now. I mean,

433
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 5: it just kind of underscores it. And the Patriots, I

434
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 5: mean they're coming off. I mean Rob Brink, I mean,

435
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 5: I guess it looks bad worse in hindsight, but like

436
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 5: I guess you have to kind of wait the chances

437
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,479
Speaker 5: of a Hail Mary being anywhere close to complete in

438
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 5: that area versus what the Dolphins did. But I mean,

439
00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 5: that looks bad for New England, but I still think

440
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 5: that they have a massive coaching advantage on these Steelers,

441
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 5: and I'm gonna go with the over here. I think again,

442
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 5: I think some of the uncertainty regarding Big Ben kind

443
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 5: of keeping this this total in check. But you know,

444
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 5: you know we always talk about it, you know, overs

445
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,440
Speaker 5: in Hinsfield and the Big Bean Antonio era. What is

446
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 5: a covering over sixty percent? I believe I usually quote

447
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 5: it like every week in your quarterback breakdown.

448
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 4: But yeah, it's it's high, and then it's even higher

449
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 4: when it is against non divisional opponents, So it's it's

450
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 4: even more of a smash spot for the over here.

451
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 5: Right, And you know, I still think both of these offenses.

452
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 5: I think that you know, James Connors, it's lost not

453
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 5: ideal for that Steelers offense. But if anything, you know

454
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 5: Big Ben does one of the reasons that he puts

455
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 5: up such good home numbers is not just efficiency, it's

456
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 5: because they tend to attempt a lot of passes at home.

457
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 5: New England still has an offense that matches up very

458
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 5: well with Pittsburgh. By the way. You know they Pittsburgh's

459
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,679
Speaker 5: weakest kind of area of the field to defend is

460
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 5: the is the middle and no ry right, Yeah, for

461
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 5: for a while now, and they rank what is it

462
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 5: twenty seventh. I believe in passes over the middle, uh

463
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 5: in terms of DVOA whether whereas they're nineteenth passes to

464
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 5: the left, seventeenth on pass to the right. Now, if

465
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 5: you're the Patriots, you have two ways to exploit that.

466
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 5: I mean, Pittsburgh rank's number thirty one against tight end.

467
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 5: So you know, you could go with Ronk, you can

468
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 5: go with you know Edelman out there. You know, Pittsburgh

469
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 5: probably going to play a lot of his own because

470
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 5: they're in man. You know, Mike Hilton has you know,

471
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 5: as far as just giving up yardage per coverage snap.

472
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 5: He's been their worst corner and then you know Morgan

473
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 5: Burnet's not matching up with Crop like that. So it's

474
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,120
Speaker 5: I think they're going to have to play a out

475
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 5: his own and Tom Brady's gonna be able to pick

476
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 5: that apart. But at home, I think the Steelers are

477
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 5: going to throw, They're going to be able to kind

478
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 5: of get in a shootout essentially with them. So yeah,

479
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 5: I'm going with you over here.

480
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm right there with you, And I should say

481
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 4: as we were recording this, the line has moved to

482
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: two and a half Patriots. There's so much for me

483
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 4: that points to the over the splits without Shazier. I mean,

484
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 4: and granted at this point now it's been eighteen games

485
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 4: including the playoffs, since they had him, but if you

486
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 4: look at the twenty seventeen twenty eighteen seasons, when the

487
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 4: Steelers had Chasier, they held opponents to seventeen point eight

488
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 4: points per game. Without Chaser, that's been twenty four point

489
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 4: eight points per game. So a pretty decent sample there

490
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 4: across the two seasons. And then obviously the sample that

491
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 4: we have of Steelers at home being able to score

492
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 4: points and because these two teams have actually played each other,

493
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 4: like at this point, I think it's like five times

494
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 4: in the last five years. These teams, considering they are

495
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 4: not divisional opponents, they know each other about as well

496
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 4: as they can. And even though they've played each other

497
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 4: that often, you've seen an average over under of around

498
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 4: forty nine points, but they've combined on average to score

499
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 4: around fifty seven or fifty eight points per game. So

500
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 4: just historically, even though these teams know each other, they

501
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 4: still combine to score a lot of points. In terms

502
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 4: of thinking of one side or the other, I don't

503
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 4: want to take, Like I know the Steelers are going

504
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 4: to be the sharp side, I don't. I still I

505
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: don't want to back the team that's lost three games

506
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 4: in a row and that has an injured quarterback, you know,

507
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 4: is on its third string running back. I definitely don't

508
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 4: want to go against Bill Belichick coming off of an

509
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 4: embarrassing loss, you know. I mean, I don't know how

510
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 4: much like that narrative stuff actually matters, but like I don't,

511
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 4: I just I don't want to take a side.

512
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 3: On this, you know what I mean?

513
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 4: Like, I don't want to go against the sharp but

514
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 4: I don't want to go against Belichick. Okay, our fifth game,

515
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 4: which was a game picked by the listeners, they want

516
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 4: us to talk about.

517
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 3: Buccaneers at Ravens.

518
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 4: Ravens favored by seven and a half a forty six

519
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 4: point five over under. The Bucks are coming off of

520
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 4: a home loss to the Saints. They have one of

521
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 4: the worst defenses in the league, last in the league

522
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 4: in PFF rush defense. As Evan Silva pointed out on Twitter,

523
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 4: the defense has been particularly poor this year on the road.

524
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: The Ravens are coming off of a morale boosting overtime

525
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 4: loss to the Chiefs. First round quarterback Lamar Jackson is

526
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 4: locked in formally as the starter. The Ravens are three

527
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 4: to one in his starts, and they have featured an

528
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 4: extremely run, heavy ball control offense with Lamar Jackson running it.

529
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 4: Chris thoughts on this game.

530
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 5: Ravens definitely off an edge here over the books because

531
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 5: the Ravens are able to kind of they play good defense,

532
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 5: and you know, they want to run a ball like

533
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 5: ridiculous amounts. With Lamar as the starting quarterback, this kind

534
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 5: of sets up as a game where they can do

535
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 5: it because they you know, in general, they play really

536
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 5: good defense, so they're able to do that even against

537
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 5: the Chiefs. I mean, they were able to kind of

538
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 5: keep that game close and continue to run the football.

539
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 5: But I still think that this line is a bit

540
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 5: much for this game. I would have it as Ravens

541
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 5: by seven. It's that it's still at Ravens seven and

542
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 5: a half, so I'm taking the little half point value

543
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 5: with the Bucks. It's just a tough one for me

544
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,719
Speaker 5: with with Lamar because it's there's almost no precedent for

545
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 5: teams that have kind of run this much, and you know,

546
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 5: with this kind of the level at which they're running,

547
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 5: and it's just just a lot of unknowns. For me,

548
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 5: I would probably lean under, but I don't really see

549
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 5: as much value on the under, Like I think it's

550
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 5: a pretty fair line where it is. You know, it's

551
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 5: just Tampa Bay's defense is bad. They turn the ball over,

552
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 5: so that that's that's kind of my worries, Like they

553
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 5: haven't turned the ball over as much lately, but that

554
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 5: could always rear its uglyhead against the defense like the Ravens,

555
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 5: and like that's what could end up I think putting

556
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 5: it over to total because I think, you know, the

557
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 5: Ravens will be able to move the ball and you know,

558
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 5: convert first downs. Because you mentioned Tampa Ba's run defense

559
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 5: so bad, especially in early down it's one of the

560
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 5: worst in the league. So staying away from the total

561
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 5: and just gonna take Tampa Bay plus seven and a half.

562
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna be Chalky here and go with the

563
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 4: over team total for the Ravens. As you mentioned, the

564
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 4: Buccaneers haven't turned the ball over recently, but like, this is.

565
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 3: What they do.

566
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: They turn the ball over. Like Winston has more interceptions

567
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 4: than any other quarterback in the league since he entered

568
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 4: the league, He's going to turn the ball over at

569
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 4: some point. I feel pretty confident in that, especially against

570
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 4: a defense as good as the Ravens. So I think

571
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 4: whether it's a defensive touchdown or just good field position,

572
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 4: whatever it is, I feel confident in both the ability

573
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 4: of the Ravens to move the ball against this defense

574
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: and then also confident in the ability of the defense

575
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 4: to give up lots of points. So I'm going to

576
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 4: take the Ravens over twenty seven points. If it goes

577
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 4: up to twenty seven and a half, I might be

578
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 4: a little it's likely to do it, but I think

579
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 4: I probably still do it.

580
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:04,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the Ravens have been it's kind of

581
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 5: they've been right there in like similar type of games.

582
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 5: So they had that game against the Falcons when they

583
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 5: went into Atlanta and was the final score twenty six

584
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 5: to sixteen. So they came, you know, they scored twenty six,

585
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 5: and then they played the Chiefs and what does that

586
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 5: score end up?

587
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: Thirty I think twenty seven to twenty four, maybe.

588
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 5: Twenty seven to twenty four. Yeah, yeah, yeah, twenty seven

589
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 5: twenty four. Right, So they've been kind of right there

590
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 5: in those mid twenties. I think, you know, the thing is,

591
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 5: the Chiefs and the Falcons aren't quite as turnover prone

592
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 5: as the as the Bucks, so we'll see. You know,

593
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 5: I think that that turn of might end up making

594
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 5: that difference there.

595
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 3: I agree with that.

596
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 4: I like, you think it's going to be be close

597
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 4: either way. It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't get it.

598
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 4: But I feel confident that if they were able to

599
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 4: put up you know, twenty ish points like mid twenties

600
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: points around some other teams against the Buccaneers when they're

601
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 4: playing at home, they should be able to get twenty seven.

602
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 5: I do I will say this though, I think, you know,

603
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 5: I kind of alluded to it last week. I think,

604
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 5: like I think the Bucks were going to be able

605
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 5: to overrat it last week. Doubt that the public was

606
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 5: actually on the Saints that at a big number, which

607
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 5: was kind of surprising, but I thought that, you know,

608
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 5: the Bucks kind of they were playing the Saints last

609
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 5: week and the Saints were just like such a good team,

610
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 5: and people were kind of down on them. And now

611
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 5: I feel like it might have switched a little bit

612
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 5: where now kind of down on the Bucks because they

613
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 5: just got blown out, and now it's like they're not

614
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 5: They think they can hang close with the Ravens. They do,

615
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 5: they should be able to move the ball. It's just

616
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 5: about the turnovers to you, Like, I think like the

617
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 5: Bucks are good enough, even with as good as the

618
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 5: Ravens defense has been. We know that, you know, a

619
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 5: team's offense is kind of gonna still impose a twelve

620
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 5: a little more. Like, I think they can move the ball,

621
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 5: it's just the turnovers worry.

622
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

623
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think it's a question so whether

624
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 4: they can accumulate yards, it's just to whether they can

625
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 4: like translate those yards into points like They've shown a

626
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: remarkable inability in some games to do that, So yeah,

627
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 4: it's just a question whether they can. Okay, we have

628
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 4: the two minute drill next. Right after Josh Applebaum tells

629
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 4: us which game the wise guys are betting this.

630
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: Week, Money Talks and Action, Apple Bomb is all ears.

631
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: This is the Sharp Report.

632
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 6: NFL Week fifteen. We are traveling to San Francisco for

633
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 6: a divisional showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the San

634
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 6: Francisco forty nine ers. Recreational betters take one look at

635
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 6: the win loss records and say, easy, layup with Seattle

636
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 6: on the road, laying a short spread. Seattle's eight and five,

637
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 6: San Fran is three and ten. However, sharps are buying

638
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 6: low on San Fran at home.

639
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 3: In this spot.

640
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 6: San fran opened as a six point dog, and even

641
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 6: though nearly seventy percent of spread bets are laying the

642
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 6: points with Seattle, we've seen Seattle fall from minus six

643
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 6: all the way down to minus three and a half.

644
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 6: This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement.

645
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 6: Even though the public is loading up on Russell Wilson Seattle,

646
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 6: the line has moved biglely towards San Fran. Why would

647
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 6: the odds makers drop the line to give public Seattle

648
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 6: betters an easier shot at covering. It's because they got

649
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 6: hit with a big wave of sharp action on the

650
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 6: forty nine.

651
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 3: Ers plus two points.

652
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 6: Using our Sports Insights bet signals, we saw different steaming

653
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 6: reverse line moves on San Fran. Sharp hit san Fran

654
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 6: at four and a half and then hit san Fran

655
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 6: at four twice at Buckeye and FanDuel. This overload of

656
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 6: sharp action caused that line to fall toward the forty

657
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 6: nine ers. Forty nine ers also enjoy a huge bet

658
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 6: first dollar split. They're only getting thirty two percent of bets,

659
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 6: but eighty one percent of dollars classic case here of

660
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 6: the bigger sharper wagers here grabbing the points with average

661
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 6: Joe's laying the points. San Fran is also in a

662
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 6: profitable historical spot. The forty nine ers fit two profitable

663
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 6: bet Labs pro systems. The first one is team ATS records. Basically,

664
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 6: you are buying low on a team that doesn't cover

665
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 6: a lot against a team that does cover a lot.

666
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 6: This match on Seattle is sixty two percent ATS since

667
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 6: two thousand and three, and they also fit the Fade

668
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 6: Streaks NFL spread Pro system, which is fifty seven percent

669
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 6: ats since two thousand and three. San fran is also

670
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 6: just a classic divisional dog with a low total total

671
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,479
Speaker 6: now is at forty four. Divisional dogs always have an

672
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 6: edge because of the built in familiarity. The low total

673
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 6: also benefits a dog. Lower amount points expected to be

674
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 6: scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover. So

675
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 6: even though the public is all over Seattle and a

676
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 6: game looks like they have to cover, the wise guys

677
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 6: are buying low on San France at home plus the points.

678
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 4: Okay that was Josh. Be sure to check out his

679
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 4: article The Sharp Reports on the Action Network. Okay, Chris,

680
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 4: instead of doing the two minute drill, I'm going to

681
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 4: call an audible. We're going to look at the Saturday

682
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 4: slate of games from a sports betting and DFS perspective.

683
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 4: The first weekend this year that we have games on Saturday.

684
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 4: Two games we have first one the Texans at the Jets.

685
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 4: The Texans favored by seven a forty one point five

686
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 4: over under. The spread is up from six and a half,

687
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 4: the total is down from forty two and a half over.

688
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 4: Eighty percent of the money is on the under. The

689
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: Texans are coming off a home loss to the Colts.

690
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: Don't forget it, but they are in the running for

691
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: a playoff by the Jets snapped a six game losing

692
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 4: streak last week with the return of rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Chris,

693
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm looking at our picks here in the

694
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 4: Google doc. It's like we're on opposite side. It's where

695
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 4: we should be. Tell me what is going on here?

696
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going against the hashtag brand and I'm going

697
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 5: against the Texans in this spot. And it's not because

698
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 5: I don't think they're the better team or that I

699
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 5: think they don't still have like a sneaky Super Bowl

700
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 5: shot or anything like that. But again, I just think

701
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 5: the margins are so slim with these with these literal

702
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 5: margins of victory in the NFL. Late in the year

703
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 5: on the road, you know, there was this whole thing

704
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 5: about you know, we had an article about it, very

705
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 5: interesting on actionnetwork dot com about how there is a

706
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 5: believe it was a high five figure bet at one

707
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 5: of the books that kind of they skipped six and

708
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 5: a half for the Texans, so they jumped straight from

709
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 5: six to seven because it was like a sharp guy.

710
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 5: It was a high fair bet, and you know, I

711
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 5: get all that, but I think that's kind of so

712
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 5: the line opened in most spots at six and a half.

713
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,959
Speaker 5: I think that was the correct line, and that you know,

714
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 5: this kind of this whole thing with that one sharp

715
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 5: guy doing this, and then and like the public and

716
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 5: the sharps are on the same page, like it is

717
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 5: just a lot. It's just a little fishy to me.

718
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 5: There was a huge beck that came in on the

719
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 5: Redskins last week too, and we still had out turned out.

720
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 5: You know, the under just forty one. I think if

721
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 5: you are betting on the over under it's still at

722
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 5: forty one and a half. I think you do kind

723
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 5: of lean toward that forty one tends to be a

724
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 5: more common score than forty two. But I don't. This

725
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 5: is another team a game where I think there's a

726
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 5: lot of turnover volatility at play. You know, Houston tends

727
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 5: to get sacked a lot. You know, sacks can always

728
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 5: end up in chaos and fumbles and things. And then

729
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 5: on the other side, Sam Donald's been one of the

730
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 5: most turnover if not the most turnover prone quarterback.

731
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 3: In the league.

732
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 5: This season, I believe, you know, even with him missing games,

733
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 5: he still has that league lead in interceptions, So you know,

734
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 5: there's a lot of way, like I could see the

735
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 5: turnovers kind of pushing this game over, even though Houston

736
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 5: has a really good run defense, and I think that

737
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 5: that's a little problematic for the Jets because they would

738
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 5: they already kind of little banged up with Isaiah Crowell out.

739
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 5: Elijah McGuire looks like he's gonna go, but it's just

740
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 5: the turnovers that make me a little shaky with the

741
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 5: over under. I think it's too big of a spot,

742
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 5: a too big of a number for Houston. It's kind

743
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 5: of a classic letdown spot. If you look at the

744
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 5: market trends road favorites twenty and twenty six against the

745
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 5: spread in their first game on the road after a

746
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 5: three game homestand which Houston has. They've been on a

747
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 5: three game homestand and if you look at their road games,

748
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 5: I mean most of their games in general, they're they're

749
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 5: not really separated by they're not winning by a lot

750
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 5: of points. You know, they a couple point win against

751
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 5: the Broncos. You know, they there's some close games in there.

752
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 5: They're they're twelve point one against Cleveland came home, so

753
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 5: you know, like the Texans, but just not big enough

754
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 5: for seven on the on the road.

755
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 4: Here, I hear what you're saying, but sometimes I am

756
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 4: so square that I am sharp, And I bet this

757
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 4: at six because there was just no way like Houston. Okay,

758
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 4: I think that their nine straight wins came against teams

759
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 4: that are nobody's but that is exactly what the Jets are.

760
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 4: The Jets are a nobody and the Texans. You know,

761
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 4: some of those wins, we were close, but like some

762
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 4: of those wins were decent sized wins, like you know,

763
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 4: they they took it to some of these teams that

764
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 4: are basically running out like non entity quarterbacks. And as

765
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 4: highly as I think of Sam Darnold, he is still

766
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 4: a rookie who has missed significant time, who's playing in

767
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 4: an offense coordinated by a guy who probably won't be

768
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 4: there next year, right, Like, it's just not a great

769
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 4: situation for him or for that team. And I can

770
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 4: see why this could be a leftown spot, but like

771
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 4: I also see this as like a bounce back spot

772
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: for Houston, like they could have won that game, and

773
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 4: if they had won last week, right, they would have

774
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 4: gained like massive edge on everyone else in the AFC,

775
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 4: right because the Steelers low lost, the Patriots lost, right,

776
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 4: Like it was just kind of like setting up to

777
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 4: be like this this perfect shot for them to get

778
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 4: the number two seed, and they blew it right, but

779
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 4: they still they still have a chance at it. And

780
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 4: all they have to do is beat the Jets. One

781
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 4: of the Steelers or the Patriots is going to lose

782
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 4: this week. One if the Chiefs or the Chargers is

783
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 4: going to lose this week. All they have to do

784
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 4: is beat the Jets. They can be like in a

785
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 4: very good situation.

786
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 5: But they and they knew that all week and that's

787
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 5: why to let the spot because they know that they

788
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 5: know that, you.

789
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 3: Know, I think it could get upcake, it's a get

790
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 3: right spot.

791
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 5: Two of our right was going to lose, Like.

792
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 3: No, it's this is this is a get right spot.

793
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 4: Like they go in to New York and it's like, oh,

794
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 4: you know, a warm weather quarterback going going to the Northeast,

795
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 4: playing in the cold whatever, Like he's not throwing the

796
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 4: ball all that often to begin with, going to run

797
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: the ball a lot.

798
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 3: He's going to throw it to Hopkins he's going to dominate.

799
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 4: I mean, I probably I wouldn't bet it now at seven,

800
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 4: but I felt very confident betting it at six. And

801
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 4: if I had to choose a side, I would still

802
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 4: go with with Houston pretty easily because I just, I mean,

803
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 4: the Jets are so bad at this point, and I

804
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 4: think it would be very easy for them just at

805
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 4: the end of the season just to kind of like

806
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: go ahead and die, you know what I mean?

807
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, No, I mean I wouldn't be surprised, like this

808
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 5: was one of the tougher ones. I spent some time

809
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 5: kind of going back and forth as what kind of

810
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 5: what side I wanted here as far as the total

811
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 5: or Houston, but I mean the Jets. But I just again,

812
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 5: I think it should be six point five. It's seven

813
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 5: going Jets.

814
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 3: All right.

815
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 4: The night cap on this the Browns at the Broncos.

816
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 4: Broncos favored by two and a half a forty five

817
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 4: point five over Under the Bread is down from four,

818
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 4: the total is up from forty four and a half.

819
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 4: Bob Scucci said on the Favorites podcast that the sharps

820
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 4: are on the Browns, a majority of the money is

821
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 4: on the under the Bread are coming off of a win.

822
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 4: They are three and two since firing head coach Hugh

823
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 4: Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. The Broncos are still

824
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 4: technically alive for the number six seed in the AFC,

825
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: but they are coming off a disheartening road loss to

826
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 4: the league worst forty nine Ers. Chris, give it to me.

827
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 4: What do you think of this game?

828
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 5: Oh, the forty nine ers aren't league worst?

829
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 4: First, yes, they are one of They are one of

830
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 4: the league worst.

831
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 5: Oh my god, they're all Their metrics are like on

832
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 5: par with Seattle. That means Seattle's the league worst even No, see,

833
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 5: Stan Francisco is just the average team that we thought

834
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,919
Speaker 5: was worse than it was because they lost the one

835
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 5: guy that we thought made them better than than average,

836
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 5: which was Jimmy G. Turns out that Jimmy G. Well,

837
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 5: I mean, we didn't get to see a lot of them,

838
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 5: but like Nick Mallens is essentially not hurting them any

839
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 5: more than Jimmy G. Really at this point, like he's

840
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 5: not doing anything. He hasn't done anything yet to really

841
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 5: like be any different.

842
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 4: But anyway, Chris, you are you are protesting too much.

843
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 4: The forty nine Ers are one of the worst.

844
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 3: Teams in the league.

845
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 4: We're playing with a drafted third string quarterback and under

846
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 4: should fifth string running back, and they are without their

847
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 4: quote unquote number one.

848
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: Wide receiver in Peer Garson.

849
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 4: He's not really a number one, but he's like one

850
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 4: of the better receivers they have.

851
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 5: Rethrowing Pierre Arson at the end zone. Feels the same

852
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 5: way about Pierre Garson's back. Okay, but Bones was like again,

853
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 5: top seven net yards per pass. He's got like seven

854
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 5: hundred over the past couple of games. He got Dante,

855
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 5: I mean whatever, anyway, Okay, back to this game. Denver, Yeah, Denver,

856
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 5: Vance Joseph not a fan. I like the Browns here,

857
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 5: like the money line. I think the Browns could go

858
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 5: in here win this game. I don't think this will

859
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 5: be quite as big as a struggle, and I think

860
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 5: it will be close. And so I can understand if

861
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 5: you just take the points and not the money line.

862
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 5: But you know they're gonna have more time to prepare,

863
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 5: Like I did. I knew that was kind of gonna

864
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 5: be bad for them, like losing their top receiver midweek

865
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 5: in the midst of also losing one of their top players.

866
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 5: If they're their top player in the secondary, you know,

867
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 5: just from a you know, overall communication all that standpoint

868
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 5: as well just wasn't a good good thing. And we

869
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 5: saw them start really really slow. They rebounded. So I

870
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 5: do think they'll play a better, more competitive game at home.

871
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 5: You know, I don't think they'll come out as flat

872
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 5: as they did against stan Fran. But I just think

873
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 5: this Browns team has been a better team since you

874
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 5: Jackson got fired. Uh their net yards per past attempt

875
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 5: right up there top of the league. Still played better

876
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 5: on pass defense, you know, number five and DVA outside

877
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 5: of the top twenty five against the run, but you know,

878
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 5: pass defense a little bit more important. And you know,

879
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 5: even you know, Denzel war doesn't is he what's his status?

880
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 5: Is he gonna believe he's out? Yeah, so he's gonna

881
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 5: miss this game. So that's that's the one thing that's

882
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 5: not ideal. But it actually it's not ideal. But it

883
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 5: also comes at like the best time it could for

884
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 5: a nap sense from him because Tim Patrick did some

885
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 5: good things last week. DeShawn got the touchdown, but Denver

886
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,439
Speaker 5: is still you know, the cupboards pretty bare as far

887
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 5: as as far as what they you know, what they

888
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 5: have at at the you know, at the pass catcher position.

889
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,959
Speaker 5: So I think they're going to want to run the ball,

890
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 5: and you know that always kind of I think kind

891
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 5: of favors the underdog a little bit because he keeps

892
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 5: the game a little a little tighter. And I think

893
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 5: Cleveland's going to be able to pull this out against

894
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 5: the Denver secondary that's you know, not nearly as formidable

895
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 5: anymore as what we're used to. You know, they just

896
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 5: have to kind of worry about pass blocking, you know,

897
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 5: blocking up those two those two rushers, which you know

898
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,840
Speaker 5: San Francisco was able to do. And uh, you know,

899
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 5: I think Cleveland has some matchup advantages they can exploit.

900
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, we saw it George Kittle did

901
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 5: to Denver. You know, you have a Ni Djoku. He

902
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 5: hasn't quite been as utilized as heavily. They've been spreading

903
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 5: the ball around a lot more since Freddie Kitchens took over,

904
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 5: But they have a bunch of different ways I think

905
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 5: to exploit Denver. You can you can use Jarvis Landry

906
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 5: now a little bit more because you don't have to

907
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 5: worry about the coverage of Chris Harris and a slot

908
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 5: on him. So I just think that Cleveland's probably a

909
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 5: better team, and it's fair to favorite Denver there at home,

910
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 5: but it should probably probably be no more than a

911
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 5: point for me anyway, And so I'm going I'm going

912
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 5: with Cleveland here. I think I like them to get

913
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 5: the win too.

914
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm one hundred percent with you on this. I

915
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 4: really don't even need to add anything. I think Cleveland's

916
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 4: the better team. Yeah, and I agree. I don't think

917
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 4: they should be favored in this game, but I think

918
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 4: if they were on a neutral field, they would definitely

919
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 4: be favored. And I wouldn't be surprised if this line

920
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:22,919
Speaker 4: continued to move towards them as we closer to Saturday. Yeah,

921
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Cleveland two and a half. Let's talk

922
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 4: a little DFS for this two games slate. The two

923
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 4: quarterbacks who are really standing out, Deshaun Watson Baker Mayfield,

924
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,760
Speaker 4: the two expensive quarterbacks on the slate.

925
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on them?

926
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 5: The issue with both of these guys, both of those

927
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 5: guys is that there are any these kind of game

928
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 5: scripts where they could kind of have a really down game,

929
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 5: not by playing bad, but just because the opponent is

930
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 5: not pressuring them into scoring a lot of points. I

931
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:53,479
Speaker 5: think I feel a little better about a little better

932
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 5: about Mayfield just overall, just because I think that, you know,

933
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 5: he's just been really impressive ever since Kitchens stickle over

934
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 5: and Houston, on the other hand, they've been playing really conservatively,

935
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 5: really run heavy. And again is you know, the Jets

936
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 5: are a turnover prone team, so there's a chance that

937
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 5: Houston could kind of miss out on a driver to

938
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 5: because they end up returning a turnover for a touchdown

939
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 5: or something like that. Tase Keenum not quite you know,

940
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 5: Denver not quite as as turnover prone. Don't expect them

941
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 5: to be at home with a run focused offense. So

942
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 5: I think Mayfield gives you a little bit, a little

943
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 5: bit more upside in the spot. I think Deshaun's always

944
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 5: like every week, he's a great ceiling play ins of

945
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 5: in terms of tournaments. But if I had to choose

946
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 5: a guy who I feel better about his floor, I

947
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 5: would go Mayfield.

948
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you.

949
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 4: There the running backs who are catching my eye, Nick Chubb,

950
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 4: Philip Lindsay.

951
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 3: Lamar Miller. How are you choosing between those three?

952
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 5: Well, I think Chubb is at this point he's an

953
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 5: auto play. I mean the way he's been used ever

954
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 5: since Kitchens took over, really but really ever since they

955
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 5: traded Carlos Hot. I mean he's getting most games. He

956
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 5: gets over ninety percent of the backs the old carries,

957
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 5: which is very rare in this day and age. I mean,

958
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 5: you look at you maybe get Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott,

959
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey. Uh, and then depending on the week, sometimes

960
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 5: you get you know, Connors or something like that. But

961
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 5: it's really rare for a back to get that much

962
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 5: work in terms of the carries. And he's also getting

963
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 5: a ten percent target share since Kitchens took over, which

964
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 5: I think is big because that that really aids his

965
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 5: slower in case. And then they kind of run into

966
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 5: a little bit of trouble and just the way they're

967
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 5: spreading the ball around that that means, you know, Chubb

968
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 5: is getting more than maybe he would get in another

969
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 5: kind of offense. So and then I think at that

970
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 5: other spot, I mean, it's got to be it's got

971
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 5: to be Lindsy, because you mentioned it last week. What

972
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,240
Speaker 5: is their offense outside of Wendsley at this point. I mean, again,

973
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 5: they had some receiver steff Up, but that was in

974
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 5: a that was in a game where it was essentially

975
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 5: a comeback kind of garbage time environment from like the

976
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 5: first what early second quarter on or something like that.

977
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 5: So those numbers, I don't know if you can respect

978
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 5: expect those to repeat every week. And I mean day

979
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 5: Sean Hamilton wasn't particularly you know, explosive or efficient. You know,

980
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 5: he just kind of got a lot of a lot

981
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 5: of quote a lot of balls for not many yards

982
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 5: got to touch. But yeah, I think I think Wendsy

983
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 5: good spot for him to get back on track. Good matchup.

984
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 5: And I think though that that running back combination is

985
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 5: a pretty high floor, high steeling combination that unless I'm

986
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 5: in a in a tournament, I don't really want to

987
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 5: deviate too much from.

988
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, one guy to keep an eye on Elijah McGuire.

989
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,919
Speaker 4: It seems like he's going to play, and he does

990
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 4: have undraftings four thousand dollars salary, which you know is

991
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 4: pretty reasonable. So someone to to keep an eye on.

992
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 5: Uh, Yeah, I think I mean he should. Yeah, he

993
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 5: should be your flex Like if you're if he's healthy,

994
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:44,479
Speaker 5: you know, you go, you go to the third running

995
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 5: back in the flex. He should be that guy.

996
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, the wide receivers there are two expensive guys in

997
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 4: the slate, DeAndre Hopkins Jarvis Landry. How are you choosing

998
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 4: between them?

999
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 5: So, I mean if you go with McGuire, you know,

1000
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,919
Speaker 5: I mean Lindsey and Chaumont, like super high stud salary guys,

1001
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 5: so you can you still have some money to play

1002
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 5: with here. So definitely want DeAndre Hopkins in there. I mean,

1003
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 5: you know, he finds a way to you know, even

1004
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 5: to save bad days. I mean last week, you know

1005
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 5: he had a thirty six yards on ten targets, but

1006
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 5: still you know, caught a touchdown. He's over twelve draftings points,

1007
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 5: looks like in every single game this season. So yeah,

1008
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 5: just more consistency with DeAndre Hopkins. He's the one guy

1009
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 5: that you kind of feel confident about with Houston, even

1010
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 5: if they do get into kind of one of those

1011
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 5: defensive games for Landry, you know, like his matchup a

1012
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 5: lot more with Chris Harris out. But if I'm choosing

1013
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 5: between Hopkins and Landry, it's definitely Hopkins. Just for the floor.

1014
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 5: He's shown Cleveland again spreading the ball around to the

1015
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 5: point that under Kitchens their top receiver in terms of

1016
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 5: target share is Jarvis Landry, not even twenty percent nineteen

1017
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 5: percent of the targets, which is very rare that you

1018
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 5: just can That just kind of shows how much Cleveland

1019
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 5: has been spreading around the ball and how I mean,

1020
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 5: he's still a good play compared relative to other receivers

1021
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 5: on the slate. But if I'm choosing between those top

1022
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 5: two guys, definitely paying up for DeAndre.

1023
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 4: Okay, and then a few of the cheaper guys who

1024
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 4: have caught my eye, Damarius Thomas is going to be

1025
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 4: someone people consider Dayshawn Hamilton, Robbie Anderson.

1026
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on those guys?

1027
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 1: Uh?

1028
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 5: You know, I like Robbie in this spot. I think

1029
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 5: I think the Marius. You know, if you look at

1030
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 5: our our models on DraftKings, the Maarius closer to the

1031
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 5: bottom along with Jarvis Landry in terms of projected plus minus,

1032
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 5: and Robbie Anderson is the number two on DraftKings at

1033
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 5: a salary of forty two hundred. So I think Robbie

1034
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 5: would be the clear kind of the better play in

1035
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 5: terms of he gives you some upside, uh you know,

1036
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 5: he has he gets the air yards. Damarius is kind

1037
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 5: of really outside. I mean he's kind of been hot

1038
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 5: and cold, so I don't hate him as a tournament play,

1039
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 5: but I don't think he's somebody really want to rely

1040
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 5: on as a as a core play on this late

1041
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 5: just based on his track record and what we've see

1042
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 5: from him out Houston. I mean, Courtland Sutton's another guy

1043
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 5: I think you could kind of argue for going back to,

1044
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 5: you know, but he's also kind of more of a

1045
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 5: tournament play, even though he does top all of the

1046
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 5: receivers in terms of projective plus minus on draftings in

1047
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 5: our models dayshaw On Fandal, So one of those Denver

1048
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 5: receivers you're probably gonna have to go with. I think

1049
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,399
Speaker 5: you kind of just play it by price because it's

1050
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 5: probably not going to be another quite as pass heavy

1051
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 5: of a game script. It sounds crazy, you know, as

1052
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 5: as it is when you're going against the juggernaut that

1053
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 5: is San Francisco.

1054
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 3: Of course, they force you to throw the ball to

1055
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 3: keep up.

1056
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 5: I mean when you give up two hundred yards to

1057
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 5: George Kittle in the first app Yeah yeah, but I

1058
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 5: mean vance Joseph, you know, defensive mind to head coach

1059
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 5: h Yeah. So yeah, that's what I am with that.

1060
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 5: I think Quincy and Nonewell, he's he looks he's looking

1061
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 5: on the wrong side questionable as well, if I'm not

1062
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 5: mistaken correct.

1063
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think it's a good situation for you. Yeah,

1064
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 4: and then also some unknown with.

1065
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 5: Oh I mean as usual. Yeah, and that's I mean,

1066
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 5: that's the whole thing with Demarrius. If Kute comes back,

1067
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,719
Speaker 5: then it's even less ideal for Damarius. I think maybe

1068
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 5: then Kute probably becomes the better play because you know,

1069
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 5: going against those jets, Jets in the slot, good situation

1070
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 5: generally for for oppos and wide receivers. But you know,

1071
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 5: it's kind of a toss up. I think you just

1072
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 5: have to kind of it just depends in a roster construction,

1073
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 5: which which are the cheap receivers you end up using,

1074
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 5: because they're essentially all in the same kind of dark

1075
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 5: throw you know, on a low scoring, bad pass offense

1076
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 5: kind of team, they could all pop. None of them

1077
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 5: have like terribly difficult or prohibitive matchups.

1078
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, So looking at this more nowon on has been

1079
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 4: rolled out, Okay, looking at the tight ends in Djoku,

1080
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 4: Chris Herndon, Jordan Thomas, Matt Lacosse. I mean it's embarrassing

1081
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 4: even to mention lacass but he is a player technically

1082
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 4: on the Denver Broncos.

1083
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts with these guys?

1084
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think you know, Herndon stands out

1085
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 5: because of the matchup, so you know Houston, And the

1086
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 5: only issue with this is that you know this is

1087
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 5: a matchup that the DJOKU didn't exploit. But you know Herndon.

1088
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 5: You know, the Texans are twenty seventh and dvo against

1089
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 5: tight ends. They really struggled to defend tight ends all season. Herndon,

1090
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 5: you know, is a guy that for the Jets, he's

1091
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 5: especially with a noon On out, I think Herndon should

1092
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 5: get a little bit of an upticking usage. He's been

1093
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 5: playing about three quarters of the snaps, so I think

1094
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 5: Herndon's in a good spot just from a value perspective

1095
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 5: and a matchive perspective to pay off his salary. It's

1096
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 5: a little higher on FANDO at fifty seven, that is

1097
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 5: on draftings at at three K, so a little better

1098
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,399
Speaker 5: of a play on DK where he leads all tight

1099
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 5: ends and projected plus minus. And then you still got

1100
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 5: to look at Najoku here. I mean, we saw the

1101
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 5: only thing I you know, I you know, after a

1102
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 5: guy like George Ko, you know, goes off for two

1103
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 5: hundred yards, especially against the team that is supposed to

1104
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,880
Speaker 5: be defense first. Head coach is a defensive guy. I

1105
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 5: think they do pay a little extra attention to the

1106
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 5: tight end. I think the last thing they want to

1107
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 5: see is nadjok who go anywhere near a George Kittle

1108
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 5: type of staff line. So I think there will be

1109
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,919
Speaker 5: kind of a more attention than would otherwise be even

1110
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 5: for a player of Nadjoku's caliber. And he's been kind

1111
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 5: of a victim of this spread around kitchens offense where

1112
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 5: he's his target share is down there at thirteen percent

1113
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 5: since since Kitchens took over. So I think Herndon's a

1114
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 5: little bit better of a value, but Najoku's that he's

1115
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:22,840
Speaker 5: got that upside just based on talent and to some

1116
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 5: extent based on the matchup as well. But it could

1117
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 5: be one of those situations where it's kind of a

1118
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 5: letdown just because there's extra attension.

1119
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:29,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're right.

1120
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 4: Like for me, one of the questions that this late

1121
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 4: comes down to, and it sounds so stupid to say this,

1122
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:36,839
Speaker 4: but like Unjoku or Herndon, you know, because that kind

1123
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 4: of determines what you're going to be able to do

1124
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 4: with the rest of your salary, and I think pretty

1125
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 4: clearly like I don't want to go with Jordan Thomas

1126
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 4: or Matt Lakos, so I think it will come down

1127
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 4: to one of those two guys, and Unjoku, for as

1128
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 4: talented as he is, as you mentioned, like, he's just

1129
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 4: not getting the target share that he previously was getting

1130
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 4: because you know, Mayfield is spreading the ball around, which

1131
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 4: which makes sense, and Mayfield's having success with it, so

1132
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 4: you know, it's hard to say that he's.

1133
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 3: Doing anything wrong.

1134
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 4: It's just not as good of a situation for a

1135
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 4: joker as you might want to see. Okay, anything further

1136
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 4: to talk about with this late?

1137
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think our sleeper is Ryan Griffin

1138
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 5: at tight end if because, like you know, he's he's

1139
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 5: been unreliable, but he did kind of pop for eighty

1140
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 5: yards on five targets his last game. Both of the

1141
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 5: Houston tight ends I think are kind of a little

1142
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 5: bit have some sleeper appeal. Like Jordan Thomas is really

1143
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 5: good leverage play because his main his main asset, his

1144
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 5: main function when he's catching passes is to catch touchdowns,

1145
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:35,839
Speaker 5: and so in a game like this, with an over under,

1146
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 5: you know, with a total hovering in that forty one

1147
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 5: to forty two range, there's a chance there's not much

1148
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 5: scoring and there's a chance that you know, even a

1149
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 5: guy like Hopkins maybe doesn't get a touchdown, and if

1150
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 5: Thomas gets like that only touchdown or like one of

1151
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 5: the two or two of the you know, something to

1152
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 5: that extent, or like if Thomas and the defense are

1153
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 5: the only people that get the players that get touchdowns,

1154
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 5: you could be in a really good spot in tournament.

1155
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,320
Speaker 5: So that those both consider those tournaments. I guess what

1156
00:53:59,360 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 5: I'm saying.

1157
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 3: Okay.

1158
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 4: Coming up as our third and long segment on lineup

1159
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 4: building and slave strategy. Right after, we checked in with

1160
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,720
Speaker 4: Johnny Owen for some trend based sports betting insights.

1161
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 2: Good data is always in passion. Here's John Ewing with

1162
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 2: trend of the week.

1163
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 7: We have just three weeks of regular season football left,

1164
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 7: and much is to be determined. If you're a fringe

1165
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 7: postseason team, games played in weeks fifteen through seventeen are

1166
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 7: must win. Take Baltimore for example. The Ravens are seven

1167
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 7: and six and currently own the second wildcard in the AFC.

1168
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,760
Speaker 7: If everything breaks right, Lamar Jackson and co. Could host

1169
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 7: a playoff game as a division winner, or could miss

1170
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 7: out on the postseason entirely if the team stumbles down

1171
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 7: the stretch. The Ravens need to win On Sunday. Odds

1172
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,879
Speaker 7: makers like Baltimore's Chance, listing the team as eight point

1173
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 7: favorites at home over the five and eight Buccaneers. It's

1174
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 7: easy to talk yourself into wagering on Baltimore. They are

1175
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 7: at home and have playoff motivation. However, history shows that

1176
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 7: such teams are off and over value. Since two thousand

1177
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 7: and three, betting against fringe playoff teams, which we'll define

1178
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 7: as having a five hundred to six seventy win percentage

1179
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 7: at home, has gone one hundred and eighteen eighty eight

1180
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 7: and five. That's a fifty seven percent win rate against

1181
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 7: the spread. More than sixty percent of spread tickets are

1182
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 7: on the Ravens, making them a popular public play in

1183
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 7: Week fifteen. But I'll take the points with the Bucks.

1184
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 3: All right? That would John.

1185
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out his sports betting articles each

1186
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 4: week at the Action Network.

1187
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,240
Speaker 3: Chris Let's look at the main slate for Sunday.

1188
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 4: Let's look at the highest owned players in the fantasy

1189
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 4: LABS models. Let's think about who we want a roster,

1190
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 4: who we might pivot away from, and who we might

1191
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 4: pivot to. Let's started the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger, Tom

1192
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 4: Brady playing in that high scoring game or what we

1193
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 4: were expecting to be a high scoring game in Pittsburgh,

1194
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 4: the highest total on the slate. Both of those guys

1195
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 4: have high ish ownership projections in our models, although you know,

1196
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 4: for the slate, ownership projections are relatively spread around the

1197
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 4: cohort of quarterbacks. But these two guys, what are you

1198
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 4: doing with them?

1199
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 5: Yeah? So you know, these two guys, I think it

1200
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 5: is going to be a high scoring game. So I

1201
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 5: think those guys are clearly the guys you want. I

1202
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 5: mean Ben at home. I know he's coming off the

1203
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 5: rib injury, but I mean we saw with Big Bennis.

1204
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 5: You know, he comes back in the game and just casually,

1205
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 5: I mean, picks up another eighty rs passing or something

1206
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 5: like that. So I don't think you can really go

1207
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 5: too wrong with Big with a guy like Big Ben

1208
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 5: at home in a game with a high total. Brady,

1209
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 5: you know, feel fine with him as well. But if

1210
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 5: I had to choose, I think I would probably lean

1211
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 5: Big Bend just because I know he's more expensive, but

1212
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 5: he's just had such ridiculous upside at home historically that

1213
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 5: I'm willing to pay the few extra your bucks or

1214
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 5: at a point in the season where you could generally

1215
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 5: find value on the slate, whereas you can kind of

1216
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 5: choose the quarterback you want, like you don't need to

1217
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 5: just pay down a quarterback just because it's that reliable

1218
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 5: floor position.

1219
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and he's got such a number, such a good

1220
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 4: number one wide receiver in juju I think that No,

1221
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 4: so yeah, in Tono Brown, you know he's he's going

1222
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 4: to be great at home. You have Jujus, it's a

1223
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 4: good situation for Big Ben at home. So it's it's

1224
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 4: understandable if you want to pay up for him. The

1225
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 4: situation with Brady historically, you know, at least for like

1226
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 4: the half the last half decade, he hasn't been as

1227
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 4: good in the second half of the season, and for

1228
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 4: the last half decade, he hasn't been as good on

1229
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 4: the road. And when you put that together, those two

1230
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 4: factors together, he really hasn't been good on the road

1231
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 4: in the second half of the season. But one thing

1232
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 4: that he does have going for him right now is

1233
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 4: that he has like his full arsenal, he has like

1234
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 4: all of the offensive weapons there. He has Gronk back,

1235
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 4: Sony Michelle is back, he has a healthy Edelman, He's

1236
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 4: got Josh Gordon rounding into form. And if you just

1237
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 4: look at the splits of Brady with all of those guys,

1238
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 4: that's when he's been at his best this year. So

1239
00:57:58,320 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 4: it is a pretty decent situation for him. He's not

1240
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 4: the cheapest he's been all year, but he's still pretty

1241
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 4: close to his bottom in terms of salary, So a

1242
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 4: decent spot potentially to by low on him.

1243
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I mean and also you know he like

1244
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 5: he's by no means like if I land on Brady,

1245
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 5: you know, it ends up coming down a roster construction

1246
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 5: a lot, which sometimes changes from the time we record,

1247
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 5: yeah to like Sunday, just based on like one value

1248
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 5: play might switch everything up. But like if I land

1249
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 5: on Brady, like I'm not viewing them in a totally

1250
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 5: different tier like at all, Like I think you know,

1251
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 5: they're both viable cash game quarterbacks big Ben. The correlation

1252
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 5: between the fantasy production of Big Ben and the opponent

1253
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 5: quarterback around league average, so you know, zero point four

1254
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 5: to five this year. But I mean you're still it's

1255
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 5: still that's still a significant correlation. And so you know,

1256
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 5: you're kind of benefiting from whatever Roethlisberger does if you

1257
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 5: take that discount with Brady. So definitely viable.

1258
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, And one thing that is notable, you know, Brady

1259
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 4: is I mean, I would say significantly cheaper, but like

1260
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 4: he's he's clearly cheaper than Roethlisberger. He might enable you

1261
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 4: to do some other things with your roster construction. And

1262
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 4: he has just as high of a ceiling as Roethlisberger does, and.

1263
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 5: He's not he's not as much of a risk to

1264
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 5: leave the game, right, he doesn't have the injury risk.

1265
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 5: I might actually yes, which my I think I actually

1266
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:18,919
Speaker 5: do favor Brady a little bit now that I think

1267
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 5: about that, that injury risk, because it's like if you

1268
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 5: don't have to take that chance, yeah, you know, why

1269
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 5: do it?

1270
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 4: So you're right, And if you look at our models,

1271
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 4: you know that have the ceiling and the floor projections,

1272
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 4: which are you know, created using the kind of Pakoda

1273
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 4: style similarity score method, Brady has a significantly higher.

1274
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 3: Floor than Roethlisberger does.

1275
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 4: Something to keep in mind, let's look at the two

1276
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 4: running quarterbacks on the slate who are popping in our models,

1277
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson Josh Allen.

1278
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 3: Man, I mean, what are you doing with these guys?

1279
00:59:51,960 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 3: If anything?

1280
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 4: I mean, I think Lamar Jackson is is a pretty

1281
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 4: good mid priced cash game play. I think he has

1282
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 4: a pretty high floor in as we mentioned, he has

1283
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:01,560
Speaker 4: a good matchup.

1284
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 3: What are you doing with him? And potentially Josh Allen?

1285
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 5: I mean, I think Josh Allen has been everything from

1286
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:10,160
Speaker 5: a fantasy perspective that we want like Lamar to be

1287
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 5: as well. Like like Josh Allen has been like Lamar

1288
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 5: with with like some added ceiling just because he's like

1289
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 5: he's just a better thrower. It sounds crazy, but like

1290
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 5: in terms of being able to throw down the field

1291
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 5: and give his receivers like Lamar is just kind of yeah,

1292
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 5: it's kind of it's still more of a struggle for him,

1293
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 5: which is kind of crazy to say, because I mean,

1294
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 5: we all know how you know, all the criticisms about Allen,

1295
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 5: but I love that one I've been. I mean, I

1296
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 5: think it was a couple of weeks ago where he

1297
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 5: like he just like popped a lot higher than I

1298
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 5: thought he would in my rankings. Model, and like he's

1299
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,080
Speaker 5: kind of stayed there just because he's rushing the person.

1300
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 5: You know, the percentage of rushes that he's you know,

1301
01:00:47,680 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 5: using for that Bill's team gives him a chance essentially

1302
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 5: at a top five ceiling every time he steps out

1303
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 5: because he's just he's just running the ball to the

1304
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 5: point where he's he can put up like one hundred

1305
01:00:56,720 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 5: yard games on the ground. He's using twenty four percent

1306
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,960
Speaker 5: of their a quarter essentially of their carries. So that's

1307
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 5: a that's a big number Detroit. You know that we

1308
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 5: know that they're a lot better in run defense since

1309
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 5: they got Harrison defending the interior, and so I think

1310
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 5: you're going to continue to see Allen on the perimeter.

1311
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 5: That's gonna be one of the Bill's main means of

1312
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 5: offense in this game is they're gonna have to use

1313
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 5: Allen on the perimeter, and they're bad and the Lions

1314
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:24,200
Speaker 5: are really bad in pass defense. So I think this

1315
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 5: sets up as another good spot for Allen and then

1316
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 5: for Lamar Jackson. I think more of the same with him.

1317
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 5: The only thing you start to worry about with with

1318
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson a little bit is that Flacco he is

1319
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 5: going to be active as the backup this week if

1320
01:01:39,240 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 5: I'm not mistaken, and we did see Lamar start to

1321
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 5: take We're starting to take some hits, and you know,

1322
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 5: he left the game a couple of games ago, so

1323
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:49,680
Speaker 5: it's another one of those similar situations where their outlooks

1324
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 5: aren't too different. But at this point, you know, it's

1325
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 5: Lamar just seems like a little bit of a risk

1326
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 5: for for for something to go h for something to

1327
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 5: go wrong, and uh, you know it that in addition

1328
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 5: to Flacco being his presence being here, you know, you

1329
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 5: could always see him start to lose some snaps a lah.

1330
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 5: You know, Drew brees to Taysom Hill except backwards. But

1331
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 5: you get what I'm saying. I just feel a little

1332
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 5: better about Josh is what I'm trying to say. But

1333
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 5: you know, both of them in good spots. I mean

1334
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 5: that Bucks defense again not not very good against the run,

1335
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:19,640
Speaker 5: which plays right into Baltimore's hands.

1336
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, Lamar Jackson has the higher median projection. Josh Allen

1337
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:27,600
Speaker 4: pretty easily has the higher ceiling projection in our mind.

1338
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:28,520
Speaker 3: Ye oh yeah.

1339
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 4: The thing with with Alan and you mentioned, you know,

1340
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 4: like he has the potential for huge yardage games as

1341
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 4: a passer because of his strong arm, because because they

1342
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,439
Speaker 4: are willing for him to throw the ball deep.

1343
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 3: And but it's an interesting situation.

1344
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 4: I mentioned this on the Wednesday podcast whereas Lamar Jackson

1345
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 4: is getting a lot of his rushing production from designed runs.

1346
01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 4: For Josh Allen, his rushing production a lot of it

1347
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 4: is coming on quarterback scrambles. It's hard to say that

1348
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 4: that is by design, but I think it almost kind

1349
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 4: of is. Like I think, if his first read isn't there,

1350
01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 4: his default at this point is to run. It's almost

1351
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 4: like the opposite of like a run pass option. It's

1352
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 4: like a pass run option, you know what I mean.

1353
01:03:14,280 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 4: It's like pass if it's not there, run and they're

1354
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:21,919
Speaker 4: rolling him out in situations where he's focusing on half

1355
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 4: of the field. If his throat isn't there, he's already

1356
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:28,520
Speaker 4: in this situation to just take off and run. So yeah,

1357
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of upside with him, even

1358
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 4: though I have to say, I mean, just like, you know,

1359
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 4: he's not a good quarterback, but like he's a perfect

1360
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,880
Speaker 4: fantasy quarterback, you know what I mean? Long term, he

1361
01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:42,040
Speaker 4: has like Blake Bortles type of potential where maybe he

1362
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 4: actually could become like a better version of what Bortles is,

1363
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:48,080
Speaker 4: you know what I mean, Like he could become a

1364
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 4: good real life quarterback, Like he has amazing raw skills

1365
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 4: right now. It's just it's not coming into anything except

1366
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 4: for fantasy production. But it's glorious, I.

1367
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 5: Would say, more than like a Richmond's Lake Borders. He

1368
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:05,520
Speaker 5: almost reminds me of like a really poor man's Cam Newton.

1369
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:08,440
Speaker 5: And you know why, because I mean, we all forget that,

1370
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,320
Speaker 5: Like Cam has turned himself into a really good quarterback,

1371
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 5: especially this year with nor of I know they had

1372
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 5: a rough game against Cleveland, but all things considered, you know,

1373
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 5: Cam's been been good. Just missed Keith throws at bad

1374
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 5: times that have kind of made it look worse than

1375
01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 5: it is. But he did. Cam wasn't you know, for

1376
01:04:24,760 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 5: most of his career. Not no accurate, not the accuracy there,

1377
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 5: stars for attempt isn't there, and it's all rushing And

1378
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 5: that's kind of what that's kind of what Josh reminds

1379
01:04:33,440 --> 01:04:36,080
Speaker 5: me of. I think the key for Josh Allen really

1380
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 5: is gonna be ball control in the game skirt, because

1381
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:43,960
Speaker 5: Josh Allen has had these games where he has run

1382
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 5: so he had this straight stretch of games weeks five, six,

1383
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 5: and then twelve when he came back nineteen attempts four runs,

1384
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 5: seventeen attempts four runs, nineteen attempts thirteen runs. So it's like,

1385
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 5: but then he goes thirty three attempts nine runs and

1386
01:04:58,160 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 5: thirty six attempts nine runs over the last two So

1387
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 5: it is kind of like what you're saying. If he's

1388
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 5: running on a lot of these undesigned runs quarterback scrambles,

1389
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 5: it's kind of a ratio of Okay, he's running, you know,

1390
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 5: every four or five dropbacks or whatever, and if he

1391
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:14,720
Speaker 5: has a game where he only has you know, those

1392
01:05:14,760 --> 01:05:18,520
Speaker 5: twenty twenty five dropbacks, then he could underwhelm, and he

1393
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:21,800
Speaker 5: could he could give you a bottom five performance. If

1394
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:23,560
Speaker 5: it's a normal kind of game script where he had

1395
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 5: drops back thirty thirty five times, then he has top

1396
01:05:26,360 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 5: five ceilings. So it depends on the Lions. They have

1397
01:05:28,520 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 5: not really been able to control the ball with any

1398
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 5: degree of regularity since trading Golden Tate. I mean, I

1399
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 5: know other things have gone wrong since then. Marvin Jones

1400
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:39,840
Speaker 5: went on injured reserve and the line hasn't been good.

1401
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 5: But the Lions don't project as a team that can

1402
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 5: necessarily keep the ball away from Buffalo. So I think

1403
01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 5: that Allen was probably on the right side, on the

1404
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 5: right side of his outlooks just because it doesn't take

1405
01:05:52,960 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 5: much and the Linons pass defense is still bad. So

1406
01:05:55,040 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 5: I mean, he still has the chance of like like

1407
01:05:57,440 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 5: an outside shot of throwing for three hundred, you know,

1408
01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 5: if he hits one or two to Robert Foster or

1409
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 5: whoever you know.

1410
01:06:03,520 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, agree, So side note. If I were a betting man,

1411
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:10,680
Speaker 4: which I am, I would bet that I will probably

1412
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 4: end up betting on their rushing props. Just saying pretty

1413
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 4: high probability I will end up betting on the rushing props,

1414
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:20,000
Speaker 4: and of course I will be using the Fantasy Labs

1415
01:06:20,040 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 4: Props tool, which is powered by our industry leading projections

1416
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,959
Speaker 4: created by Sean Corner aka the Odds Maker. This season,

1417
01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:28,520
Speaker 4: the NFL props with the bet quality of ten are

1418
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:30,920
Speaker 4: two hundred and seven, ninety two and eleven, good for

1419
01:06:30,960 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 4: a hit rate of sixty seven percent. To access the tool,

1420
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:36,200
Speaker 4: subscribe to Fantasy Labs, where you can get a five

1421
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 4: day trial for just fifteen ninety five. Okay, let's talk

1422
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:42,400
Speaker 4: about the running backs. The two guys at the top

1423
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 4: Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. We are expecting them to

1424
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 4: be the highest owned guys on the slate and not coincidentally,

1425
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 4: they are the guys at the top of our rankings

1426
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,240
Speaker 4: and by the way, you can find those at actionnetwork

1427
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 4: dot com slash fantasy. How are you choosing between these

1428
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 4: two guys?

1429
01:07:00,800 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 5: You know, Sequon has just been amazing even with you know,

1430
01:07:05,480 --> 01:07:07,920
Speaker 5: the offense that he's been in. Yeah, have Zeke in

1431
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 5: a situation where, you know, going on the road after

1432
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 5: a big home game, but you mentioned it, you know,

1433
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:15,439
Speaker 5: with the Mari it's it's kind of helped Zeke out

1434
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:20,360
Speaker 5: as well. So I don't think you can necessarily go

1435
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,959
Speaker 5: like wrong with either of these guys. It just really

1436
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:27,920
Speaker 5: comes down to two roster construction because you know, we

1437
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:30,560
Speaker 5: have Zeke as the the you know in Barkley within

1438
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 5: like tensive a point of each other. But Barkley is

1439
01:07:33,800 --> 01:07:38,680
Speaker 5: four hundred more expensive on on DraftKings and he is

1440
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 5: let's see, what is he on fandel He is six

1441
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:45,000
Speaker 5: hundred more expensive on fansul. So you know you're not

1442
01:07:45,040 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 5: always gonna have that maybe that salary to get up

1443
01:07:47,200 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 5: there at that at the high of an extreme, So

1444
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:52,520
Speaker 5: I think you kind of favor it favors Elliott a

1445
01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 5: little bit. But and I think that the Titans are

1446
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 5: they are also a better run defense than than than

1447
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 5: a pass defense, so it kind of plays more into

1448
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 5: Zeke as well. But the Colts are also a good

1449
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:07,560
Speaker 5: run defense. But I just think Zeke makes me feel

1450
01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:10,320
Speaker 5: a little better. I think they have like an equal outlook,

1451
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:11,880
Speaker 5: and Zeke is a cheaper guy, so that's kind of

1452
01:08:11,880 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 5: how deciding it.

1453
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:14,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do agree with you.

1454
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 4: Zeke is popping a little bit more in our models,

1455
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 4: and I think a big part of that is just

1456
01:08:19,360 --> 01:08:22,599
Speaker 4: that he's a little bit cheaper. At this point, He's

1457
01:08:22,600 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 4: been used enough in the passing game for me to

1458
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:28,360
Speaker 4: feel more comfortable with him as a road dog. In

1459
01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 4: the past, I really wouldn't have wanted to take him

1460
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 4: in that position, but he's been used enough as a

1461
01:08:33,439 --> 01:08:38,080
Speaker 4: receiving back that I think he's pretty game script independent

1462
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:42,280
Speaker 4: at this point, So a safer situation for him. Jalen

1463
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 4: Samuels taking on the Patriots at home. Of course, we

1464
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:49,400
Speaker 4: are assuming that he will be the starter, assuming that

1465
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:51,800
Speaker 4: James Connor is out. We are expecting him to be

1466
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 4: fairly popular as he was last week. What are you

1467
01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 4: doing with him.

1468
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:59,960
Speaker 5: In a tournament at this ownership in this kind of matchup,

1469
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 5: I don't think you necessarily need to do it too much,

1470
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:06,679
Speaker 5: because we see this repeatedly in tournaments that the chalk

1471
01:09:06,800 --> 01:09:09,920
Speaker 5: running backs generally end up in the winning lineups. And

1472
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 5: by the chalk I don't just mean like the chalk

1473
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 5: value plays with just the Chalk studs in general. So

1474
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:19,719
Speaker 5: I don't think you necessarily need to go the Samuel's route.

1475
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:23,200
Speaker 5: I do think he has some upside because this again,

1476
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh tends to attempt a lot of passes at home,

1477
01:09:25,439 --> 01:09:28,360
Speaker 5: and if New England's kind of playing back in coverage,

1478
01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:31,599
Speaker 5: and if they decide not to single up Antonio Brown

1479
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:35,599
Speaker 5: and play with more coverage, they will have you know,

1480
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:38,320
Speaker 5: Samuel is the guy that's gonna benefit. He's gonna catch

1481
01:09:38,360 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 5: him dump off. So I don't hate to play, but

1482
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:43,880
Speaker 5: at that ownership level, not necessarily somebody I'm excited about

1483
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:47,680
Speaker 5: in tournaments. I think there's enough. Either you go with

1484
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 5: like kind of a higher, more expensive backfield, or you

1485
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:53,200
Speaker 5: kind of take some of those mid range you have.

1486
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:55,759
Speaker 5: You have Joe Mixon up there as well. High ownership,

1487
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:58,840
Speaker 5: but a bit of a higher ceiling. So there's there's

1488
01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:00,479
Speaker 5: a there's a bunch of ways to go where you

1489
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 5: don't kind of get stuck with the with Samuel's chalk.

1490
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about the wide receivers, and of

1491
01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:10,200
Speaker 4: course let's start with Antonio Brown and Juju Smith Schuster

1492
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:13,559
Speaker 4: going against New England. I mean, good spot for them

1493
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:14,960
Speaker 4: at home. What are your thoughts.

1494
01:10:16,160 --> 01:10:19,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting because Brown actually has a negative projective

1495
01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:21,640
Speaker 5: plus minus in our models, even though he's one of

1496
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:23,400
Speaker 5: the top projective receivers.

1497
01:10:23,439 --> 01:10:28,000
Speaker 3: Obviously, No, you don't say what is surprise? Sorry, go ahead.

1498
01:10:28,040 --> 01:10:32,640
Speaker 5: I think I think Freeman hacked Sean Cloter. Yeah, projections,

1499
01:10:33,040 --> 01:10:34,880
Speaker 5: but that one. But no, you know, I mean, I

1500
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 5: don't think you have to trick yourself into feeling like

1501
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 5: you have to play a Steelers wide receiver.

1502
01:10:39,560 --> 01:10:39,720
Speaker 3: You know.

1503
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:41,840
Speaker 5: Juju's also been priced up to where he's not a

1504
01:10:41,880 --> 01:10:45,920
Speaker 5: great value either in this spot, so you know, but

1505
01:10:46,080 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 5: with with both of those guys, I think that the

1506
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 5: pricing has come so close together that I'd still favorite

1507
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:53,080
Speaker 5: Antonio Brown here. I mean, he's five he's only five

1508
01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 5: hundred more expensive than Juju on draftings in seven hundred

1509
01:10:56,920 --> 01:11:01,639
Speaker 5: on FanDuel. Antonio Brown is still a guy who I think,

1510
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,240
Speaker 5: just because of the way he plays in the position

1511
01:11:04,320 --> 01:11:07,720
Speaker 5: he plays, will still end up having more upside more

1512
01:11:07,760 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 5: often than out of though Juju has been right there.

1513
01:11:09,400 --> 01:11:11,840
Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean Antonio Brown leads the league in

1514
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:13,760
Speaker 4: end zone targets. Yeah, I mean he has it. He

1515
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:16,080
Speaker 4: has a very high ceiling ques exactly.

1516
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:18,160
Speaker 5: So it's like with the with the way the prices are,

1517
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:21,519
Speaker 5: I still favor the Emens best.

1518
01:11:21,400 --> 01:11:27,280
Speaker 4: Live Okay uh Amari and t Y Hilton, assuming, of course,

1519
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 4: the t Y Hilton plays both of them in the

1520
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 4: Dome in Indianapolis. That game has the second highest total

1521
01:11:34,320 --> 01:11:36,840
Speaker 4: on the slate. How are you approaching them?

1522
01:11:37,000 --> 01:11:38,880
Speaker 5: That's weird because it's not even a high total at all.

1523
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:40,960
Speaker 3: It's not, it's not it's it's a throwback week.

1524
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:44,320
Speaker 4: It feels like twenty sixteen with with some some games.

1525
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:45,480
Speaker 3: That really don't have high totals.

1526
01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:50,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I think who he said, Amri and

1527
01:11:50,160 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 5: Ty Who?

1528
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:52,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Mario you.

1529
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:55,360
Speaker 5: Kind of hit on it. I think you gotta kind

1530
01:11:55,360 --> 01:11:58,360
Speaker 5: of weave. I mean, we'll see what happens. Because it's

1531
01:11:58,360 --> 01:12:01,000
Speaker 5: it's still Thursday. When recording this, he's on Friday, then

1532
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:04,679
Speaker 5: I guess treated I think Ty does become interesting. He's

1533
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:08,840
Speaker 5: actually got a out of all the top receivers on

1534
01:12:08,880 --> 01:12:11,479
Speaker 5: the main slate on DraftKings, he's got the best projected

1535
01:12:11,520 --> 01:12:14,280
Speaker 5: plus minus. It just depends if he's actually going to

1536
01:12:14,280 --> 01:12:17,320
Speaker 5: be healthy. I think Amar's stilling in a solid spot,

1537
01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:19,599
Speaker 5: but his pricice is getting up there. And Indian Aldamis

1538
01:12:19,600 --> 01:12:22,360
Speaker 5: did a good job on DeAndre Hopkins last week. I

1539
01:12:22,400 --> 01:12:25,200
Speaker 5: mentioned it earlier. Ten targets on for thirty six yards,

1540
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,799
Speaker 5: So I don't think it's necessarily a gimme matchup for Amari.

1541
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:31,680
Speaker 5: It's kind of probably gonna depend on gamescript, but I

1542
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:33,800
Speaker 5: think the targets will be there just when we score

1543
01:12:33,800 --> 01:12:36,439
Speaker 5: a touchdown, and what will the gamescript, because remember his

1544
01:12:36,560 --> 01:12:39,040
Speaker 5: numbers as good as he was last week, that it

1545
01:12:39,080 --> 01:12:41,040
Speaker 5: was a lot of it was a game script driven

1546
01:12:41,520 --> 01:12:44,200
Speaker 5: just with the games staying so close and then ultimately

1547
01:12:44,200 --> 01:12:46,799
Speaker 5: going overtime, so and Dallas controlling the ball for essentially

1548
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:49,320
Speaker 5: that whole period. So I would favorite Ty if we

1549
01:12:49,439 --> 01:12:51,160
Speaker 5: knew that he was that he was healthy.

1550
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:56,840
Speaker 4: Okay, the Antonio Brown and Juju Smith Schuster doppel gangers

1551
01:12:57,200 --> 01:13:00,879
Speaker 4: and Stefan Diggs and Adam Thalen playing against Miami.

1552
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:03,120
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts with these two guys.

1553
01:13:03,479 --> 01:13:07,080
Speaker 5: So I worry a little bit about the scoring potential

1554
01:13:07,120 --> 01:13:10,400
Speaker 5: for this game because John d Philippo, the Vikings OC

1555
01:13:10,600 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 5: got fired. Apparently it was mainly because Mike Zimmer, head coach,

1556
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:17,880
Speaker 5: felt like he did not run the ball enough. He

1557
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 5: was too quick to abandon the run. I don't think

1558
01:13:21,400 --> 01:13:23,640
Speaker 5: that's exactly true. I think that's one of those examples

1559
01:13:23,680 --> 01:13:26,680
Speaker 5: of how kind of old thinking kind of gets in

1560
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:30,320
Speaker 5: the way of smart coaching in the NFL, because if

1561
01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:33,439
Speaker 5: you look at the at the Vikings and you look

1562
01:13:33,439 --> 01:13:36,280
Speaker 5: at their numbers, they were one of the worst teams

1563
01:13:36,439 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 5: in early down success rate when they're running the football

1564
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,799
Speaker 5: twenty six en yards per carry on early downs, thirty

1565
01:13:42,800 --> 01:13:45,160
Speaker 5: first in first down rate on early down rushes. But

1566
01:13:45,760 --> 01:13:47,920
Speaker 5: in terms of the past their number fourteen in net

1567
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,400
Speaker 5: yards per pass on first and second down and the

1568
01:13:50,520 --> 01:13:53,360
Speaker 5: number thirteen in first down rate on first or second

1569
01:13:53,360 --> 01:13:55,720
Speaker 5: down when they passed the ball. So de Philippo is

1570
01:13:55,800 --> 01:13:57,720
Speaker 5: right to abandon the run. But I worry now that

1571
01:13:58,280 --> 01:14:02,720
Speaker 5: promoting the quarterback coach that they're going to recommit to

1572
01:14:03,560 --> 01:14:08,280
Speaker 5: establishing the run. That might ultimately just result in another

1573
01:14:08,760 --> 01:14:11,720
Speaker 5: kind of SOSO game. I'm sure I'm guessing that one

1574
01:14:11,760 --> 01:14:14,160
Speaker 5: of Dealing and Diggs will probably still have a use

1575
01:14:14,280 --> 01:14:17,760
Speaker 5: like a smash enough of a smash spot, But it's

1576
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 5: hard to kind of get as excited when you have

1577
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:22,560
Speaker 5: a team that's pretty clearly going to want to re

1578
01:14:22,760 --> 01:14:25,200
Speaker 5: establish the run in Miami. Their weakness is more so

1579
01:14:25,240 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 5: against the past. They ranked nine spots better in DV

1580
01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:31,000
Speaker 5: away against the run. They are the second worst team

1581
01:14:31,040 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 5: in terms of giving up yards per net yards per

1582
01:14:33,280 --> 01:14:35,600
Speaker 5: past attempt on first and second down on defense. So

1583
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:37,760
Speaker 5: this is a team that you want to be aggressive with.

1584
01:14:38,240 --> 01:14:40,639
Speaker 5: De Filippo's real problems that he just didn't he thought

1585
01:14:40,640 --> 01:14:42,559
Speaker 5: that because his run game wasn't good, he couldn't use

1586
01:14:42,560 --> 01:14:44,920
Speaker 5: the play action, couldn't take take as many deep shots.

1587
01:14:45,120 --> 01:14:48,120
Speaker 5: Minnesota is one of the lowest play action teams, and

1588
01:14:48,160 --> 01:14:50,320
Speaker 5: so I just I worry that they're going to be

1589
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:52,080
Speaker 5: a little to run heavy. It's probably gonna end up

1590
01:14:52,080 --> 01:14:55,559
Speaker 5: benefiting Dalvin Cook the most, and these guys could They'll

1591
01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:57,760
Speaker 5: probably have their volume, but it's hard to say, like,

1592
01:14:57,800 --> 01:14:59,639
Speaker 5: oh my god, smash spot. The one thing that helps

1593
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:02,320
Speaker 5: is o Xavier and Howard looks like he's not going

1594
01:15:02,360 --> 01:15:04,000
Speaker 5: to play for Miami, which is a big, a big

1595
01:15:04,040 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 5: downgrade because none of their other corners are in the

1596
01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:08,160
Speaker 5: top seventy in PFF grades.

1597
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,800
Speaker 4: Yep, sorry about tight ends. Four guys near the top

1598
01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:15,200
Speaker 4: of the salary scale, not really much separating them in

1599
01:15:15,280 --> 01:15:20,160
Speaker 4: terms of salaries. George Kittle versus Seattle, Eric Ebron against Dallas,

1600
01:15:20,520 --> 01:15:25,040
Speaker 4: Rob Gronkowski in Pittsburgh, and then Jared Cook in Cincinnati.

1601
01:15:25,439 --> 01:15:28,439
Speaker 4: How are you discerning between those four guys?

1602
01:15:28,720 --> 01:15:30,920
Speaker 5: Well, I do like the matchup for Gronk. You know,

1603
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:32,519
Speaker 5: you never know what a defense is going to do

1604
01:15:33,560 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 5: in terms of the defensive attention. But Pittsburgh is down

1605
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:39,840
Speaker 5: to thirty first in DV away against the tight end.

1606
01:15:40,000 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 5: All the other guys you mentioned their matchups more more

1607
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:48,679
Speaker 5: middle of the pack. Still favor Gronk as a smash play.

1608
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:53,639
Speaker 5: I think Kittle will probably get a little inflated ownership

1609
01:15:53,720 --> 01:15:57,200
Speaker 5: after the blow up spot last week, So that's someone

1610
01:15:57,240 --> 01:15:59,640
Speaker 5: that probably tried to get off a little bit. So

1611
01:15:59,680 --> 01:16:01,519
Speaker 5: I think I think Gronk is the guy here still

1612
01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:03,080
Speaker 5: that I'm looking at the most.

1613
01:16:03,400 --> 01:16:05,960
Speaker 3: Okay, any other tight end catcher eye.

1614
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, So Ferks, there is interesting. Uh, Anthony Ferkster for

1615
01:16:09,320 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 5: the Titans against the Giants, kind of under the radar

1616
01:16:12,040 --> 01:16:15,680
Speaker 5: guy that you know, kind of you've seen, you know,

1617
01:16:15,800 --> 01:16:18,240
Speaker 5: all these a lot of these low end tight end

1618
01:16:18,400 --> 01:16:20,400
Speaker 5: bus so I wouldn't go too crazy with it, but

1619
01:16:20,680 --> 01:16:22,920
Speaker 5: he's a guy that kind of primary pass catching tight

1620
01:16:23,040 --> 01:16:26,200
Speaker 5: ends on a team that really outside of Corey Davis,

1621
01:16:26,479 --> 01:16:28,439
Speaker 5: they're they're always looking for for pass catchers. So if

1622
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:30,439
Speaker 5: this guy starts to he's going to get nearly a

1623
01:16:30,439 --> 01:16:33,280
Speaker 5: full compliment of snaps, perhaps with or at least passing

1624
01:16:33,280 --> 01:16:35,639
Speaker 5: down snaps with John new Smith out. He's a guy

1625
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:37,599
Speaker 5: that could give you some cheap production at at only

1626
01:16:37,600 --> 01:16:38,480
Speaker 5: twenty nine.

1627
01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 4: Okay, we're going to close out the show with our

1628
01:16:42,320 --> 01:16:45,200
Speaker 4: fourth and Goal segment previewing Sunday Night Football. But first

1629
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:47,280
Speaker 4: let's kick it to Ian Harden, who runs through the

1630
01:16:47,320 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 4: key week fifteen coverage situations, the press.

1631
01:16:52,680 --> 01:16:57,439
Speaker 2: The jam, and the five yard bump. Ian Harden springs

1632
01:16:57,479 --> 01:17:04,160
Speaker 2: you dance of what Divas.

1633
01:17:03,320 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 8: Week fifteen has eight key wide receiver quarterbacks shadow matchups.

1634
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 8: Monster first is Kenny golladavers Tradavius White. It's another tough

1635
01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:12,840
Speaker 8: matchup for Galladay as Tradavius has held the likes of

1636
01:17:12,880 --> 01:17:16,320
Speaker 8: Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, DeVante Adams, and Josh Gordon under

1637
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:18,000
Speaker 8: one hundred and out of the end zone in shadow

1638
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:20,639
Speaker 8: dates this season. Mike Evans will take on Jimmy Smith.

1639
01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 8: Jimmy Smith has farewell and shadow matchups for Michael Thomas

1640
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:25,760
Speaker 8: and Julio Jones this year, but Evans obviously has the

1641
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:28,400
Speaker 8: physical tools to win any matchup. Julio Jones will take

1642
01:17:28,439 --> 01:17:31,519
Speaker 8: on Patrick Peterson. They should line up against each other

1643
01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:33,960
Speaker 8: most of the time on the outside, but Peterson has

1644
01:17:33,960 --> 01:17:36,559
Speaker 8: only played eleven total snaps in the slot all season,

1645
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:39,160
Speaker 8: and Julio runs twenty one percent of his routes from

1646
01:17:39,160 --> 01:17:41,880
Speaker 8: the inside the formation. Although Beckham will take on adri

1647
01:17:42,000 --> 01:17:44,439
Speaker 8: Jackson remains to be seen. I f obj will play

1648
01:17:44,479 --> 01:17:47,240
Speaker 8: through this squad injury, but he's capable of winning any matchup,

1649
01:17:47,400 --> 01:17:50,559
Speaker 8: especially this one. Devonte Parker will take on Xavier Rhodes.

1650
01:17:50,640 --> 01:17:52,679
Speaker 8: It's a really tough matchup for Parker. With how big

1651
01:17:52,720 --> 01:17:54,960
Speaker 8: an athletic Roads is, He's able to match up very

1652
01:17:54,960 --> 01:17:57,960
Speaker 8: well and with so much uncertainty. The Dolphins run first

1653
01:17:58,040 --> 01:18:01,880
Speaker 8: offense situation to avoid Antonio Brown Juju Smith Schuster will

1654
01:18:01,880 --> 01:18:05,280
Speaker 8: face off against Stefan Gilmore and Jason mccordy. Against the Vikings,

1655
01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:08,240
Speaker 8: the Patriots had Gilmore shadow Stefan Diggs on the outside,

1656
01:18:08,320 --> 01:18:11,320
Speaker 8: with mccordy in a safety bracketing Adam Feeling from the slot.

1657
01:18:11,360 --> 01:18:13,839
Speaker 8: I expect them to use the same strategy against the Patriots,

1658
01:18:13,840 --> 01:18:17,000
Speaker 8: with Gilmore shadowing ab and Juju seeing more attention from

1659
01:18:17,040 --> 01:18:19,519
Speaker 8: the inside. Josh Gordon will face off against Joe Hayden.

1660
01:18:19,680 --> 01:18:21,920
Speaker 8: Steelers have really asked Joe Hayden to shadow, but he's

1661
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:23,920
Speaker 8: been good when he's done it. But Gordon at least

1662
01:18:23,960 --> 01:18:25,920
Speaker 8: has a decent floor, considering he has at least seventy

1663
01:18:26,000 --> 01:18:27,960
Speaker 8: yards and or a touchdown in seven of ten games

1664
01:18:28,000 --> 01:18:30,280
Speaker 8: with the Patriots. And finally, Michael Thomas and trey Quan

1665
01:18:30,360 --> 01:18:33,080
Speaker 8: Smith will face off against James Broberry and Dante Jackson.

1666
01:18:33,280 --> 01:18:35,920
Speaker 8: Thomas has dominated the Panthers, caught thirty of thirty six

1667
01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:38,520
Speaker 8: targets for four hun thirty four yards and three touchdowns

1668
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:41,240
Speaker 8: and five crew games against the Panthers. My favorite matchup

1669
01:18:41,240 --> 01:18:44,439
Speaker 8: of the week Julian Edelman. He's gone for eleven catches

1670
01:18:44,600 --> 01:18:47,479
Speaker 8: ninety seven yards, no scores, nine catches sixty yards, no

1671
01:18:47,560 --> 01:18:49,840
Speaker 8: scores and eight catches one hundred and eighteen yards and

1672
01:18:49,880 --> 01:18:52,439
Speaker 8: one score in his last three games against the Steelers.

1673
01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 8: We saw Keenan Allen get nine targets for Steeler linebackers

1674
01:18:56,120 --> 01:18:58,640
Speaker 8: when the Chargers played them, So I'm expecting Julan and

1675
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:01,240
Speaker 8: Edam to get favorable match up from the inside all game,

1676
01:19:01,760 --> 01:19:04,280
Speaker 8: and they should be fine fantasy frontly near the end

1677
01:19:04,360 --> 01:19:07,200
Speaker 8: zone as well, considering he's already one of four seriers

1678
01:19:07,280 --> 01:19:09,599
Speaker 8: with at least ten targets inside the ten yard line

1679
01:19:09,720 --> 01:19:11,760
Speaker 8: despite being suspended for four games.

1680
01:19:12,000 --> 01:19:13,679
Speaker 4: All right, that was I be sure to check out

1681
01:19:13,720 --> 01:19:16,840
Speaker 4: his wide receiver cornerback matchup column each week at the

1682
01:19:16,880 --> 01:19:22,639
Speaker 4: Action Network. Chris Sunday Night Football Eagles at Rams Rams favored.

1683
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:25,160
Speaker 4: Right now, the line is eleven and a half a

1684
01:19:25,200 --> 01:19:28,240
Speaker 4: fifty two point five over under. The spread is up

1685
01:19:28,320 --> 01:19:30,679
Speaker 4: from nine and a half on news that Eagles quarterback

1686
01:19:30,680 --> 01:19:34,960
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz is expected not to play with a back

1687
01:19:35,000 --> 01:19:38,759
Speaker 4: injury a broken vertebra. The total is down from fifty

1688
01:19:38,760 --> 01:19:41,760
Speaker 4: four over. Eighty percent of the money is currently on

1689
01:19:41,800 --> 01:19:44,599
Speaker 4: the under. The Eagles are coming off an overtime loss

1690
01:19:44,600 --> 01:19:47,599
Speaker 4: and a must win game against the Cowboys. The Rams

1691
01:19:47,600 --> 01:19:49,920
Speaker 4: are coming off of a disappointing Sunday night football loss

1692
01:19:49,960 --> 01:19:52,519
Speaker 4: to the Bears, but they still have a shot at

1693
01:19:52,520 --> 01:19:55,400
Speaker 4: the number one seed. What are you doing with this game?

1694
01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:58,240
Speaker 5: You know, I think at first glance, you know, it's

1695
01:19:58,320 --> 01:20:00,600
Speaker 5: kind of everyone's kind of first in is going to

1696
01:20:00,640 --> 01:20:03,599
Speaker 5: be to follow that money. It's you know, Wentz is out.

1697
01:20:03,720 --> 01:20:07,880
Speaker 5: You know, spread goes up, total go down. I understand it.

1698
01:20:07,920 --> 01:20:10,360
Speaker 5: But I actually and this is probably a kind of

1699
01:20:10,400 --> 01:20:13,479
Speaker 5: an unrabound like put pick, but I'm going Rams at

1700
01:20:13,479 --> 01:20:16,519
Speaker 5: the big at the big number here because the thing

1701
01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,840
Speaker 5: that gives me pause about the total is that I

1702
01:20:19,840 --> 01:20:23,520
Speaker 5: think the Rams could come close to covering it by themselves.

1703
01:20:23,600 --> 01:20:27,599
Speaker 5: And you know, and like I mean, let you know,

1704
01:20:27,840 --> 01:20:30,759
Speaker 5: Dallas put up where they end up twenty nine against

1705
01:20:30,760 --> 01:20:33,080
Speaker 5: the Eagles. I mean that's Dallas, and Dallas is not

1706
01:20:33,600 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 5: you know, a very explosive offensive team, and they gave

1707
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:40,080
Speaker 5: up three touchdowns to the number one wide receiver. I mean,

1708
01:20:40,160 --> 01:20:41,800
Speaker 5: this is a game. You know, last week I was

1709
01:20:41,840 --> 01:20:45,280
Speaker 5: worried about the Rams going into Chicago, no Cooper cub

1710
01:20:45,360 --> 01:20:47,759
Speaker 5: you a tough spot for them. This is a spot

1711
01:20:47,920 --> 01:20:52,000
Speaker 5: at home, no weather to deal with against a secondary.

1712
01:20:52,040 --> 01:20:54,840
Speaker 5: That is just I mean, they're they're about as bad

1713
01:20:54,840 --> 01:20:57,280
Speaker 5: as it can get right now. This is I think

1714
01:20:57,280 --> 01:20:59,559
Speaker 5: this is a get right game for their offense, and

1715
01:20:59,640 --> 01:21:01,800
Speaker 5: so so I get why the money is kind of

1716
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,240
Speaker 5: on the total, but I just worry that again the

1717
01:21:05,320 --> 01:21:08,639
Speaker 5: Rams could cover it nearly by themselves, you know, Nick Foles.

1718
01:21:08,920 --> 01:21:12,200
Speaker 5: And at the same time, I think the Rams defense

1719
01:21:12,560 --> 01:21:15,080
Speaker 5: probably not as good as they looked last week. You know,

1720
01:21:15,400 --> 01:21:17,759
Speaker 5: I think there might need some issues still with mister Risky.

1721
01:21:17,840 --> 01:21:19,800
Speaker 5: It wasn't the cold weather, so a lot of things

1722
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:22,840
Speaker 5: going on there. But the Rams against Nick Foles. This

1723
01:21:23,040 --> 01:21:26,040
Speaker 5: Nick Foles, We've seen him in the playoffs have a

1724
01:21:26,120 --> 01:21:28,559
Speaker 5: remarkable three game stretch. We've seen him have a remarkable season.

1725
01:21:28,600 --> 01:21:31,920
Speaker 5: But besides that Nick Foles, there's been there has been

1726
01:21:31,960 --> 01:21:35,719
Speaker 5: a pretty significant downgrade from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles.

1727
01:21:35,760 --> 01:21:38,600
Speaker 5: I mean, Nick Foles is averaging last year in the

1728
01:21:38,640 --> 01:21:41,360
Speaker 5: regular season four point sixty five net yards in attempt

1729
01:21:41,680 --> 01:21:45,000
Speaker 5: this year in his two appearances four point eight nine

1730
01:21:45,200 --> 01:21:47,680
Speaker 5: net yards per attempt, and no, that was against the

1731
01:21:47,720 --> 01:21:51,439
Speaker 5: Falcons and the Bucks. Four point eight nine net yards

1732
01:21:51,479 --> 01:21:54,120
Speaker 5: per attempt against the Falcons and the Bucks. Like I

1733
01:21:55,040 --> 01:21:59,760
Speaker 5: remember his going Nuts in the playoffs, but we've only

1734
01:21:59,800 --> 01:22:02,439
Speaker 5: seen this nick Foles in the playoffs. Like in the

1735
01:22:02,479 --> 01:22:07,240
Speaker 5: regular season, he's been a very, very bad quarterback. I

1736
01:22:07,280 --> 01:22:08,680
Speaker 5: just think that it's going to be easy for the

1737
01:22:08,760 --> 01:22:10,760
Speaker 5: Rams to blow this one open. It's hard for me

1738
01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:13,080
Speaker 5: to call where the total is gonna land, because again,

1739
01:22:13,120 --> 01:22:15,600
Speaker 5: I think the Rams could end up scoring forty some

1740
01:22:16,040 --> 01:22:18,479
Speaker 5: odd points themselves. I'm not sure exactly how to gauge

1741
01:22:18,520 --> 01:22:21,240
Speaker 5: their defense, but I think the Rams Bomo.

1742
01:22:21,240 --> 01:22:23,599
Speaker 4: I think that's possible. If I were betting, I would

1743
01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:26,880
Speaker 4: say it's probably even likely. And I did grab this

1744
01:22:27,680 --> 01:22:30,679
Speaker 4: actually at nine as soon as I heard that Carson

1745
01:22:30,680 --> 01:22:32,880
Speaker 4: Wentz was out, and I was amazed that it hadn't

1746
01:22:32,880 --> 01:22:34,920
Speaker 4: been taken off the board yet. And part of it

1747
01:22:34,960 --> 01:22:37,559
Speaker 4: is now that I am anchoring to that number of nine.

1748
01:22:37,960 --> 01:22:40,160
Speaker 4: So like, my head won't let me bet this at

1749
01:22:40,160 --> 01:22:42,599
Speaker 4: eleven and a half because I already betted at nine.

1750
01:22:42,640 --> 01:22:43,160
Speaker 3: You know what I mean.

1751
01:22:43,360 --> 01:22:46,439
Speaker 4: But I'm looking at everything you said about Nick Foles

1752
01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:49,639
Speaker 4: is right. He's totally inconsistent. But if you considered the

1753
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:54,040
Speaker 4: hashtag revenge game perspective, going I'm kind of joking about that,

1754
01:22:54,120 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 4: but going against the Rams. The thing that Foles didn't

1755
01:22:58,479 --> 01:23:01,240
Speaker 4: have at the beginning of the season, and these you

1756
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:03,479
Speaker 4: might not think these are big things, but I think

1757
01:23:03,520 --> 01:23:06,479
Speaker 4: it's maybe enough to push me over twenty and a

1758
01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:10,400
Speaker 4: half for the Eagles, which is where the imply total

1759
01:23:10,479 --> 01:23:14,679
Speaker 4: is right now. He didn't have al Seon Jeffery, Golden

1760
01:23:14,680 --> 01:23:18,800
Speaker 4: Tate has been added to that offense. Darren Sproles, I believe,

1761
01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:21,439
Speaker 4: was injured early in the season, so he didn't have

1762
01:23:21,520 --> 01:23:24,400
Speaker 4: Sprolls in the second game of the season, so he

1763
01:23:24,520 --> 01:23:28,200
Speaker 4: has as full of a complement of weapons as he's

1764
01:23:28,360 --> 01:23:31,360
Speaker 4: going to have. So I don't know, twenty and a

1765
01:23:31,400 --> 01:23:34,400
Speaker 4: half like that's not that many points like the Eagles,

1766
01:23:34,680 --> 01:23:37,000
Speaker 4: even if you think at this point that kind of

1767
01:23:37,040 --> 01:23:40,800
Speaker 4: like retrospectively, Frank Reich was a much bigger part of

1768
01:23:40,840 --> 01:23:44,120
Speaker 4: what that offense was doing than Doug Peterson last year,

1769
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:46,120
Speaker 4: and I think that's the case. I still have enough

1770
01:23:46,160 --> 01:23:49,760
Speaker 4: respect for Peterson to think that in a game that

1771
01:23:50,000 --> 01:23:53,240
Speaker 4: is must win for them because they can still technically

1772
01:23:53,360 --> 01:23:55,800
Speaker 4: make the playoffs if a lot of things break out right,

1773
01:23:55,880 --> 01:23:57,760
Speaker 4: and maybe they still have like the quote unquote heart

1774
01:23:57,800 --> 01:24:00,400
Speaker 4: of a champion and they're going against a very good

1775
01:24:00,439 --> 01:24:02,400
Speaker 4: team like I think they will want to be like

1776
01:24:02,560 --> 01:24:06,240
Speaker 4: motivated where even if they lose, they lose playing like

1777
01:24:06,439 --> 01:24:09,400
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl champion. All of those things factor together.

1778
01:24:09,880 --> 01:24:11,640
Speaker 4: I think they have to be able to score at

1779
01:24:11,680 --> 01:24:13,160
Speaker 4: least twenty one points.

1780
01:24:13,200 --> 01:24:15,519
Speaker 3: You know what I mean. Like, so that's that's where

1781
01:24:15,560 --> 01:24:16,240
Speaker 3: I'm going to go.

1782
01:24:17,120 --> 01:24:18,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't, like I said, I don't hate it.

1783
01:24:18,920 --> 01:24:20,320
Speaker 5: I just I just really don't feel like I have

1784
01:24:20,360 --> 01:24:22,439
Speaker 5: a gauge on it. That's that's I just have a

1785
01:24:22,479 --> 01:24:24,400
Speaker 5: much stronger feeling. And this is not usual for me

1786
01:24:24,400 --> 01:24:26,640
Speaker 5: because usually I'm like, ah, I could see how this

1787
01:24:26,680 --> 01:24:29,280
Speaker 5: other team keeps it close, but in this one, I

1788
01:24:29,439 --> 01:24:32,920
Speaker 5: just Rams smash spot. I think that's why the line, Like,

1789
01:24:32,960 --> 01:24:34,519
Speaker 5: I think a lot of people are going to look

1790
01:24:34,520 --> 01:24:36,439
Speaker 5: at that line into the gods too much and probably

1791
01:24:36,479 --> 01:24:37,120
Speaker 5: bet the Eagles.

1792
01:24:37,160 --> 01:24:39,439
Speaker 3: The Rams could win by like thirty points. I mean,

1793
01:24:39,479 --> 01:24:41,240
Speaker 3: like they they could be. The thing is, it's just

1794
01:24:41,280 --> 01:24:42,160
Speaker 3: that their defense.

1795
01:24:42,360 --> 01:24:44,679
Speaker 4: And here's the thing, even if they win by a lot,

1796
01:24:45,040 --> 01:24:47,840
Speaker 4: I think that would just kind of put the the

1797
01:24:47,920 --> 01:24:51,040
Speaker 4: Eagles in a position to score more points and the

1798
01:24:51,120 --> 01:24:54,479
Speaker 4: Rams defense can give up points, like they haven't been

1799
01:24:54,600 --> 01:24:57,000
Speaker 4: very good to this point in the season at preventing

1800
01:24:57,080 --> 01:25:00,880
Speaker 4: opponents from scoring points. So you know, like that's that's

1801
01:25:00,920 --> 01:25:03,439
Speaker 4: where I'm I'm I'm going with this here.

1802
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:08,599
Speaker 5: It's interesting Golden Tate last four games, snap rates seventy one,

1803
01:25:09,280 --> 01:25:13,679
Speaker 5: sixty forty eight, thirty nine, targets eight eight, seven to three.

1804
01:25:14,000 --> 01:25:17,040
Speaker 5: So I wonder if they kind of I don't know

1805
01:25:17,080 --> 01:25:19,800
Speaker 5: if that's noise or I mean, obviously the snap counts

1806
01:25:19,800 --> 01:25:23,400
Speaker 5: are deliberate that you're going down, but yeah, it's it's

1807
01:25:23,600 --> 01:25:26,920
Speaker 5: kind of like they're kind of finding a balance where

1808
01:25:27,000 --> 01:25:30,519
Speaker 5: they don't feature him quite as much, so that that's

1809
01:25:30,560 --> 01:25:34,120
Speaker 5: something interesting to watch it And note for the FS purposes, Well.

1810
01:25:34,080 --> 01:25:36,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was the the rare trade in which both

1811
01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:38,120
Speaker 3: sides lost, you.

1812
01:25:38,080 --> 01:25:42,320
Speaker 5: Know, but it's like it's like for Oaken, i mean

1813
01:25:42,360 --> 01:25:45,000
Speaker 5: opens up there like eleventh and passing Dvoa. It seems like,

1814
01:25:45,360 --> 01:25:47,720
Speaker 5: I mean, obviously we're not talking about the draftings more

1815
01:25:47,760 --> 01:25:50,680
Speaker 5: on on the field, but like on the field, it's

1816
01:25:50,720 --> 01:25:54,000
Speaker 5: like open and Dallas both won that that that Cooper trade. Yeah,

1817
01:25:54,040 --> 01:25:58,559
Speaker 5: and Detroit and Philly both lost that gold Tate trade

1818
01:25:58,560 --> 01:25:59,120
Speaker 5: on the field.

1819
01:25:59,280 --> 01:25:59,519
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1820
01:25:59,600 --> 01:26:02,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay, that's what we got for the show. You

1821
01:26:02,280 --> 01:26:05,200
Speaker 4: are breaking down the Monday night game within on our

1822
01:26:05,240 --> 01:26:06,160
Speaker 4: next show Man.

1823
01:26:06,200 --> 01:26:09,200
Speaker 3: This has been a long one. Any final words, Let's

1824
01:26:09,200 --> 01:26:11,240
Speaker 3: get this money. That is going to do it.

1825
01:26:11,280 --> 01:26:14,240
Speaker 4: For the Friday episode of the Action Network NFL podcast.

1826
01:26:14,400 --> 01:26:16,760
Speaker 4: Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe for all of

1827
01:26:16,760 --> 01:26:19,839
Speaker 4: our upcoming episodes for Chris Raybond, I Am, Matthew Friedman,

1828
01:26:19,880 --> 01:26:27,679
Speaker 4: Matt at the Oracle, See you again next episode,