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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 2: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: The off season rolls along and in the NFL as

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Speaker 1: we continue to take our tour around the sports world.

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Speaker 1: Today with Chat WBC, the World Baseball Classic has arrived.

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Speaker 2: We've got the big.

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Speaker 1: Guns joining us Shun Zarillo, lead baseball analyst from Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Brandon Kravitz, joined by the returning Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister of DJEN Nation Stucky Kendrim. Middleton is enjoying the

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Speaker 1: vibes of Portugal all the red wine that comes with it.

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Speaker 1: Stucky knee deep in college hoops. How's the pre tournament

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Speaker 1: process going for you?

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Speaker 3: Good grinding along putting out conference tournament previews all thirty

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Speaker 3: one conference tournaments. Big That's on Campus podcast, make sure

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Speaker 3: you check it out. We are put a lot of

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Speaker 3: work in for those and hopefully it pays off with

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Speaker 3: some winners following on the Action Map. But yeah, awesome

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Speaker 3: time of the year. The actual March starts tomorrow noon

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Speaker 3: yet Valley Tip.

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Speaker 1: We have seen that this is March posts, but we

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Speaker 1: need the what's the official what's the official conference that

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Speaker 1: kicks it off?

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Speaker 4: For you?

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Speaker 3: Valley Noon Tip in the Valley on Friday.

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Speaker 1: We had a big time trade, and the way we

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Speaker 1: had a few big time trades in the NFL, we

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Speaker 1: didn't get a chance to talk to you about David

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Speaker 1: Montgomery to the Texans. Saw Trent McDuffie traded from the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs to the Rams. We saw a shift in the

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Speaker 1: odds market with the Super Bowl. The Rams went from

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Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty to plus seven to fifty after

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Speaker 1: adding one of the best.

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Speaker 2: Dbs in football.

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Speaker 1: And the latest, DJ Moore traded from the Chicago Bears

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Speaker 1: to the Buffalo Bills. Remember Moore was traded to the

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Speaker 1: Bears from Carolina for as part of the number one

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Speaker 1: overall pick. So that was the hefty package that the

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Speaker 1: Bears gave up in order to get better at wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: And now they've moved on from him. This is something

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Speaker 1: that clearly Buffalo needed. They had to upgrade the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver position. I think DJ Moore, maybe you get a

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Speaker 1: Mike Evans in free agency and really revamp this thing.

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Speaker 1: But what do you think of the move DJ Moore

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Speaker 1: to Buffalo?

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Speaker 3: Like, I get it they need receiver help, but like,

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Speaker 3: is DJ Moore the answer for their contract? By the way,

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Speaker 3: would he yode one hundred million, you're gonna pay one

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Speaker 3: hundred million for he's gonna be thirty soon, ah, Like,

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Speaker 3: and it's not like he's torched the world on fire

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Speaker 3: of Lady might be like a little over the hill

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Speaker 3: in terms of his upside, I think they would need

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Speaker 3: like a like he's he gonna be. What they need

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Speaker 3: is like a reliable, speedy, young deep threat to open

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Speaker 3: up that offense. Is that Dj Moore for one hundred million? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think I think the Bears work are going to

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Speaker 3: make out in that uh and like they have enough

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Speaker 3: weapons and they it seemed like it wasn't working there,

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Speaker 3: So a change of scenery, you know, could be a

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Speaker 3: good thing. He could be rejuvenated and we'll see how

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Speaker 3: it works. But like, this isn't a huge needle mover

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Speaker 3: for me. It definitely improves to those just because they

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Speaker 3: needed receiver help. But with the contract and his age

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Speaker 3: not wowed, I think there was better options out there.

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Speaker 1: It's not gonna be a full hundred mil. He signed

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Speaker 1: a four year, one hundred and ten million dollar extension

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Speaker 1: a year ago, so the Bears have already paid a

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Speaker 1: part of that. I would think they'd want to still restructure.

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Speaker 1: He is an overpaid wide receiver. There's no doubt they

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Speaker 1: might want to look at restructuring this contract, but they

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Speaker 1: had to get better. DJ Moore has been a disappointment

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Speaker 1: over the last season, but he is a significant upgrade

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Speaker 1: from who was the number one wide receiver, Khalil Shakir.

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Speaker 2: They had to get somebody, uh a slot.

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Speaker 3: Guy, so yeah, they needed help. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: this is the most ideal unless they like restructure this

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Speaker 3: contract is something that's more digestible, then I'll be a

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Speaker 3: little more bullish on the move. But yeah, I mean

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Speaker 3: it's not like it definitely is helpful, but it's not like,

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Speaker 3: oh my god, now I'm all in on the Bills.

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Speaker 3: Same thing with the Rams, like like, but this is

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Speaker 3: a year too late. I was saying this last year.

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Speaker 3: The Rams just need to go get a corner like that.

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Speaker 3: That is like their one weakness is like just get

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Speaker 3: one really good corner and that would make everything on

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Speaker 3: the defense so much easier. And we'll see if that,

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Speaker 3: you know. But now there's like a lot more on certive.

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Speaker 3: You're going into a new season, right there's like you

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Speaker 3: could have injuries. But I feel like if they did

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Speaker 3: something like this last year. It could have been the

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Speaker 3: difference in them getting to a super Bowl. But prove

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Speaker 3: it move. They've made a lot of them. They drafted

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Speaker 3: well a position that they needed to get premium talent

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Speaker 3: at and so, and I like what, I don't mind

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Speaker 3: it for the Chiefs either. I think this could end

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Speaker 3: up being a win win trade, but neither where I'm

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Speaker 3: like at this point, I mean, it's March fifth where

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Speaker 3: I'm like running to bet anything as a result.

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Speaker 1: A pretty significant move in the market after that. Trent

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Speaker 1: McDuffie news though, Yeah, that's.

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Speaker 3: A little otrageous for one corner to go right. So,

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Speaker 3: but that's the NFL so overreaction season.

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Speaker 2: Still to come.

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Speaker 1: We've got WBC talk with Sean Zarillo, but first a

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Speaker 1: word about DraftKings from the First Lady.

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Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings Sportsbook, where

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Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.

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Speaker 2: All right, Stucky, you got a random question for me today? Hey,

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Speaker 2: this is a dumb question.

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Speaker 3: Let me ask you a personal question. Kind of question?

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Speaker 2: Is that is question?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So if well, number it's two parter one. What

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Speaker 3: is the best live sporting event you've ever been to?

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Speaker 3: So can you? I'll give you a second to think

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Speaker 3: about it, Zurollo, Mine is two thousand and eight. This

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Speaker 3: is a baseball episode, so it's kind of fitting two

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Speaker 3: thousand and eight NLDS Game four. It's really remember what

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Speaker 3: that game.

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Speaker 5: Was, Game four of the two thousand Alds.

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Speaker 3: Two thousand and eight No Brewers Phillies. Shane Victorino hit

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Speaker 3: a grand slam off CC Sabbathia and the bank was electric.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing like a huge home run live at a

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Speaker 3: at a baseball playoff game, the atmosphere is already electric.

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Speaker 3: But and then just the white cows everywhere. But those

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Speaker 3: are some of my favorite games to go to. Back

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and seven and Phillies in their playoff games.

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Speaker 3: The one, sorry to bring this up through, one of

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Speaker 3: my most unforgettable moments was when the Phillies chased down

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Speaker 3: the Mets, I think in seven and the Mets were

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Speaker 3: just completely melded down a huge division lead. But that's

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Speaker 3: that's my favorite in person, live sporting event. Brandon, how

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Speaker 3: about you, man?

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Speaker 2: I got a couple of ties there.

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Speaker 1: I think the number one for me is probably here

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Speaker 1: we can cash the Dolphins ticket today is the last

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins victory in the playoffs. I was there for that.

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Speaker 1: They beat Peyton Mannings Indianapolis Colts in the year two

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Speaker 1: thousand with Jay Fiedler and Lamar Smith at running back.

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Speaker 1: That was electric that game. I think it went to overtime.

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Speaker 1: If I remember, I have seen a Chris Davis walk

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Speaker 1: off home run since we have Sean Zarilla on the

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Speaker 1: pod today at Camden Yards against the A's. It was

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Speaker 1: a regular season game, but you still you never forget

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Speaker 1: seeing a walk off and that was like right after

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Speaker 1: he signed his massive contract. I'm not sure he hit

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Speaker 1: another one after that, but that was definitely one that

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Speaker 1: sticks in my mind and non technically sporting event related

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Speaker 1: I was there when the Undertaker's streak was broken against

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Speaker 1: brock Lesnar at WrestleMania thirty.

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Speaker 3: Derella. How about you.

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Speaker 5: I can't believe I'm gonna be the one who gives

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Speaker 5: out a college football game as my favorite event I've

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Speaker 5: ever been to on this pod, I figured Stucky was

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Speaker 5: like a minus one thousand favorite to.

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Speaker 3: I've been to a bunch of college I've never been to,

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Speaker 3: like one that's like amazing somehow, that's like so memorable.

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Speaker 3: That would be my favorite.

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Speaker 5: Bok ahead, My two favorite are both from college. One

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Speaker 5: was a Miami Duke basketball game, the other was and

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Speaker 5: the number one was Miami FSU season opener two thousand

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Speaker 5: and nine, my junior year of college Corey Harris Christian

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Speaker 5: Ponder Miami thirty eight, FSU thirty four a double goal

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Speaker 5: line stand, Yes, double goal line stand pass interference on

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Speaker 5: fourth down. They had to run it back for another

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Speaker 5: four downs in order to seal out the game at

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Speaker 5: their defensive goal line. So an absolutely stunning football game.

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Speaker 5: But more importantly, it was the first game of the

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Speaker 5: year between two teams who ended up not being very good.

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Speaker 5: But because of the first game of the year, it

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Speaker 5: meant the entire world. The other game was that Miami

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Speaker 5: Duke basketball game. I think that was from my freshman

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Speaker 5: or sophomore year, Greg Paulis on Duke and Miami's crowd.

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Speaker 5: This is the only time I've ever seen this happen, Stucky,

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Speaker 5: I'm curious. Have you ever seen this happen on TV?

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Speaker 5: With all the college basketball, You've watched Miami's student section

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Speaker 5: chanting fuck you paulas at Greg Paulis for so long

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Speaker 5: that the refs had to go over to the microphone

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Speaker 5: and tell the crowd to either stop or we were

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Speaker 5: going to get a technical foul for our home team.

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Speaker 5: I've never seen the refs warn't a crowd to stop

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Speaker 5: chanting something and the penalty would be a technical foul

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Speaker 5: for the home team.

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Speaker 2: Is that?

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Speaker 5: Is that something that you're even aware of as a rule?

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Speaker 3: Let alone?

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Speaker 5: Have you seen that before?

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Speaker 3: The couple just a couple of times, But like it's very,

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Speaker 3: very very very rare. I'm usually it's like a coach

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Speaker 3: getting on but like that's usually when like people are

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Speaker 3: throwing things.

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Speaker 5: Or yeah, just words, just words.

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Speaker 3: Words. That last week in Zaga Saint Mary's, the crowd

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Speaker 3: for long stretches was chanting fuck you e K about

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Speaker 3: Graham e K. All right, So second part of the

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Speaker 3: question that my Miami FSU game. I do remember that

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Speaker 3: name too, Cory Harris I think was the Miami quarterback.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Travis Benjamin elite Travis Benjamin.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Second part of the question, if I could give you

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Speaker 3: a you know, red carpet level experience, the best tickets,

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Speaker 3: anything that you want, it's just an A plus experience

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Speaker 3: to and you get free tickets you someone else to

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Speaker 3: go to any sporting event in the year twenty twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: so you don't really you don't know any about the

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Speaker 3: teams or anything. What are you choosing? So if you

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Speaker 3: could just be like, hey, I'm going to go to

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Speaker 3: like the Chiefs home game against the Broncos. I want

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Speaker 3: to go to the World Series, the Super Bowl, whatever

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Speaker 3: it is. What sporting event are you choosing?

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Speaker 2: I know?

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Speaker 3: So for me, I can't. I couldn't. I wish I

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Speaker 3: would choose the World Series, like World Series Game one.

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Speaker 5: There may not be a World Series in twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 3: I was going to bring that up. And also I

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Speaker 3: can't go to the World Series like it's during it's

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Speaker 3: certain football, So like I would I can't. I don't really,

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Speaker 3: I can't really leave my dungeon during football, and then

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Speaker 3: it really wouldn't be a football game cause I can't.

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Speaker 3: I don't even have time to travel or go to

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Speaker 3: football travel during football season. So like I'm out on football,

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Speaker 3: I also have no in I don't want to go

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Speaker 3: to the go to the super Bowl, rather watch it

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Speaker 3: at home or a party or the bar. So I

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Speaker 3: think I'm choosing for twenty twenty seven, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: choose a Duke Carolina basketball game. I guess I'll choose.

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Speaker 3: I've no I've never been to one. It's on my

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Speaker 3: bucket list. I guess I'll choose which one do I

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Speaker 3: want to go to first? I don't know. I guess

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Speaker 3: I'll go to Cameron or whoever one's on the schedule

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Speaker 3: for like the last the last, the last game of

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Speaker 3: the year. So I would choose to Carolina. You know

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Speaker 3: it's going to be electric, both teams are probably going

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Speaker 3: to be really good, and I've never been into on

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Speaker 3: my bucket list, So I'm gonna go do Carolina basketball game, Zorilla.

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Speaker 3: What can be your mind?

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Speaker 5: It's twenty twenty seven Belmont Stakes. It's going to come

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Speaker 5: back to Queen's where rightfully belongs after being at Saratoga

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Speaker 5: for a few years, but newly renovated Belmont Park right

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Speaker 5: next to right attend hockey games for my New York

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Speaker 5: Islanders as well. But I would imagine the facilities are

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Speaker 5: going to be beautiful and incredibly upgraded, and if I

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Speaker 5: have the chance to get VPU experience at that first

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Speaker 5: Belmont Steaks, I would take it. You know, I would

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Speaker 5: run towards it. So yeah, that's that's the first thing

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Speaker 5: that came to mind, just a Belmont coming back to Queens.

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Speaker 3: In twenty fifteen. I saw, I saw, I saw, I

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Speaker 3: had This was just random, but I saw American Pharaoh

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Speaker 3: at Preakness the and then I saw him at Breeders,

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Speaker 3: which was in Keenland, and I also saw him in

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Speaker 3: Saratoga at Traverse where he lost lost to keen Knights.

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Speaker 3: I think, but that's that's I like that pick, Brandon.

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Speaker 3: How are you You're gonna choose a Dolphins or magic game?

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Speaker 2: I go to plenty of magic games.

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Speaker 1: The Dolphins depressed me, So no, I'm gonna go non

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Speaker 1: fandom related. I'm gonna sit courtside at MSG for Knicks game.

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Speaker 1: I would love it to be like the Game seven

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Speaker 1: of the Eastern Conference.

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Speaker 3: For you don't know that. You gotta choose. So if

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Speaker 3: you choose Game seven and there's no Game seven, I

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Speaker 3: see you're not going.

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Speaker 2: I don't give the ticket.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well I'll take game I'll take game on

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Speaker 1: Eastern Conference Finals.

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Speaker 2: Something special about the.

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Speaker 1: Knicks going up You could go NBA Finals, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go Eastern Conference Finals. Something special about that conference

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Speaker 1: rivalry always feels more heated, like them and whoever they're

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Speaker 1: going up against. There's always a fight that might break out,

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Speaker 1: and you don't know who's.

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Speaker 3: Gonna be the Knicks. Why are you assuing there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be the Knicks?

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Speaker 2: Well, you said I could choose, Are not I choosing

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Speaker 2: my venue too?

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Speaker 3: Choose the event blindly. So like if you choose, you

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Speaker 3: could choose the College Wall National Championship, but you know

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Speaker 3: it could be like a twenty point spread. You could

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Speaker 3: choose the Eastern Conference Finals. You don't know who's going

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Speaker 3: to be in it, so you're you're choose that. That's

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Speaker 3: that's part of the exercise. Even pay attention. But East

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Speaker 3: Eastern Conference Finals Game one is fine, but it might

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Speaker 3: not be at MSG it could.

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Speaker 1: Be all right, well, I'll still, I'll still, I'll still

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Speaker 1: go Eastern Conference Finals game one, and if the Magic

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Speaker 1: are in it, then then I get paid to be there,

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Speaker 1: so even better.

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 3: And then with Adam your two quick answers with your

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Speaker 3: best live sporting man, would what would you pick?

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Speaker 7: I'm in twenty six and it hasn't happened yet. I

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Speaker 7: think the easy one would be World Cup Final No.

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Speaker 3: Twenty seven gotta be twenty seven, so.

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Speaker 2: No, I get it.

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Speaker 7: But twenty six you could say it because I don't

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Speaker 7: know who's gonna be in it, and it basically plays

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Speaker 7: with this story. In twenty seven, I guess NBA Finals

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Speaker 7: game one something like that.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 7: Without the teams, it's impossible. I mean, Kentucky Derby something

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Speaker 7: like that's always a good time.

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Speaker 3: Yep. And would you have our best sporting event Verben

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Speaker 3: Dow Live.

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Speaker 7: Oh, I mean, it's hard to beat the semi final

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Speaker 7: that I went to this year for Indiana Oregon, starting

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Speaker 7: with the pick six.

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Speaker 5: Being at that live in that arena, absolutely ridiculous.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I've been to some bad beats the super Bowl,

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Speaker 7: but that one comes to mind.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Ohio State Michigan would be a good answer.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna switch my answer. I've never been to that one.

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Speaker 1: Go Ohio State Michigan. We know it's gonna happen, So

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Speaker 1: now that I understand the assignment, stucky, but a soft

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Speaker 1: launch for a great guest today, Sean Zarillo from the

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Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch podcast joins a US Right now, We've got

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Speaker 1: WBC already underway. Great way to dig in to Baseball's

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Speaker 1: The twenty twenty six campaign is set to get started

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Speaker 1: at the end of this month. As a baseball fan, Sewan,

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Speaker 1: you have to love this, but as somebody who bets

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Speaker 1: the sport for a living, is it a welcome treat

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Speaker 1: that you get an event like this or a giant

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Speaker 1: pain in the ass to model a tournament on top

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Speaker 1: of everything.

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Speaker 2: Else that you do before the season starts.

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Speaker 5: Oh no, I'm fully cooking right now. I absolutely love this,

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Speaker 5: and the edges I'm going to find in this tournament,

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Speaker 5: not only in the futures market, but on a game

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Speaker 5: to gay market are substantial compared to what you can

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Speaker 5: find in a regular season baseball game. Because the differences

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Speaker 5: of opinion and how people are projecting these out are

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Speaker 5: going to be so wildly variable from one person to

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Speaker 5: the max. I'm sure people are with the advent of AI.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure there's some people who are wildly confident they're

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Speaker 5: able to, you know, just say things that basically vibe

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Speaker 5: code themselves a model, you know, and somebody doing this

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Speaker 5: for six years at this point, I know how to

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Speaker 5: speak to the bottles in terms of telling them, you know,

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Speaker 5: the prompts that I want and getting out of it

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Speaker 5: what I want and experimenting and back testing, etc. So no,

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Speaker 5: I'm very confident and in very hype for this tournament

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Speaker 5: just because I think the betting opportunities are going to

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Speaker 5: be abound. I mean, even the first game beating the

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Speaker 5: closing total by two runs shows that I feel like

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Speaker 5: I'm directionally correct in terms of the assessments here. So no,

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Speaker 5: this is a ton of fun and frankly, having a

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Speaker 5: competitive baseball game that mattered at ten pm on a

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Speaker 5: Wednesday with forty thousand people in the stands and the

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Speaker 5: Taiwanese fans just going absolutely nuts for a team who

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Speaker 5: didn't score a run for the entire nine innings against

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Speaker 5: one of the worst pitching staffs of the tournament. Like

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Speaker 5: what else do you want in early March other than

356
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Speaker 5: competitive baseball you can actually be locked in on. So

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Speaker 5: this is one of my favorite things to watch in

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Speaker 5: every three years. I really look forward to this, and

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Speaker 5: we'll continue to because I think the WBC is just

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Speaker 5: going to continue to grow an interest. Especially the quality

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Speaker 5: of the rosters in this tournament relative to the last

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00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 5: tournament is so much better with the eligi ability rules

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Speaker 5: that they're permitting for a lot of these players from

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Speaker 5: you know, countries who they may have ancestry too, and

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Speaker 5: players seem to be more interested in getting involved. So

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Speaker 5: I think we're gonna just see the tournament get gain

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Speaker 5: interest and become more and more competitive each time out.

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Speaker 3: Well, you mentioned modeling this out. I have a two

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Speaker 3: part question about one specific team. One, how did how

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Speaker 3: dies like check? How does chekia just in the air?

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Speaker 3: And how did they qualify? I don't know how they

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Speaker 3: picked the teams Like there's it's I guess there's some

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Speaker 3: qualifying rounds, but like the US did, wouldn't have done that?

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Speaker 7: Uh?

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Speaker 3: And then two, how do you go about modeling? Like

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00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 3: they're like guys with a they're like firefighters, right, and

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00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 3: like they're just guys with day jobs, so what how

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00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 3: are they in this tournament? And maybe there's just just

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Speaker 3: lack of other options. Uh. And then two, how do

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Speaker 3: you go about modeling like a plumber who's also playing baseball?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and one of these, one of these electricians actually

382
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 5: struck out Shoho Tani in the last WBC, which I

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Speaker 5: wonder if Tani ever thinks about that amidst all the

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Speaker 5: MVPs and World Series. He's runs like, I wonder if

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00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 5: he regrets striking out to that plumber.

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Speaker 3: Well, he had money on it, so I'm kidding, all right,

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Speaker 3: I'm getting I'm sure.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure his translator did. So, you know, that's it's

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Speaker 5: a great question. And that's probably the most difficult part

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Speaker 5: of this. So the way they qualify. First off, if

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00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 5: you got to win in the last of WBC, you

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00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 5: qualified automatically for this one. And they had China, not

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Speaker 5: Chinese type AI, but actual China in their group and

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Speaker 5: they were able to beat China. They do not have

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Speaker 5: a China in their pool this time. And teams who

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Speaker 5: didn't get a win in the last WBC, like Nicaragua

397
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 5: forgetting the other ones off hand, but there were several

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00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 5: teams who had to qualify and play through qualifier rounds

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Speaker 5: in order to get back into this tournament. That's why

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00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 5: China is not here this time. They didn't win a

401
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 5: game in the last WBC and they didn't end up

402
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Speaker 5: winning their qualifying pool, were finishing second in their qualifying pools.

403
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Speaker 5: So that's how you qualify for the tournament. The way

404
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 5: you measure these teams, how do you measure guys who

405
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 5: are semi pro players in Czech Republic compared to guys

406
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 5: who are professional players in the KBO or MPB or

407
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 5: for that matter, the major leagues. There's a multiplier major

408
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 5: league equivalency that you can basically use to measure these

409
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 5: players off of their domestic league stats compared to major

410
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 5: league stats. So, for example, a guy in the KBO

411
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 5: who posts like a one to seventy five or plus,

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00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 5: meaning he's seventy five percent better than the average for

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Speaker 5: that league, while the average for the KBO is about

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00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 5: sixty five percent of the major league average. So you're

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00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 5: going to reduce that player to about sixty five percent

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00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 5: on the major league scale, and then you can kind

417
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 5: of figure out how these leagues compared to one another.

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Speaker 5: The more difficult aspect, obviously, is comparing players from leagues

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00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 5: that don't really have data, like the Czech League or

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00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 5: like these Brazilian domestic players, So you sort of have

421
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 5: to use a baseline projection and kind of rate them

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00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 5: all as ten percent or fifteen percent of an ada

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00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 5: verge major league player, and then you can build out

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00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 5: a projection from there. So that's essentially what I have

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Speaker 5: for the checker players. There's a couple of guys who

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00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 5: are in the major league or who are in an

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00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 5: affiliated ball who are in the minor leagues four major

428
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 5: league clubs. The rest of the roster. The other twenty

429
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 5: three plus guys on the roster are all check extra

430
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Speaker 5: league players, So you kind of have to use a

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Speaker 5: baseline projection for all of them and assume that they're

432
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Speaker 5: ten percent or fifteen percent of the caliber of a

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Speaker 5: major league player. And when I compared, you know, when

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Speaker 5: I ran that through my model of the Korean players

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Speaker 5: on a major league scale and the check players on

436
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Speaker 5: a major league equivalent scale at ten to fifteen percent

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Speaker 5: of the major leagues, I got the line to minus

438
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 5: nine hundred and the total right in line with where

439
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 5: the market was. So feel pretty comfortable in terms of

440
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 5: those adjustments in the major league equivalencies. But that's that's

441
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 5: kind of how you're adjusting country versus country and domestic

442
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,719
Speaker 5: league versus domestic league. Is using those mls which other

443
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 5: people have figured out based upon players who have come

444
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 5: over and then put up major league stats and kind

445
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 5: of comparing how their major league production compared to their

446
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 5: pre major league production.

447
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 3: And on top of thank you that answer, by the way,

448
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 3: that is there any unique because the pools, there's four pools,

449
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 3: they're being played in four different locations, right, I assume

450
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 3: are there any you know, at ballpark, atmosphere, elevation or

451
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 3: ball like, is there a different way? Is is there

452
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 3: any ball controversy? You gotta Are you paying attention to

453
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 3: any of that early anything that could impact totals or

454
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 3: is it pretty straightforward? You know, you're getting from a

455
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: you know, gameplay and stadium perspective, So there's.

456
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 5: No automatic ball strike system like you're already seeing in

457
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: spring training and you'll see at the major league level

458
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 5: this year, which if you watched the game last night,

459
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 5: you were pulling your hair out in the first inning

460
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 5: because the umpire was all over the place and there

461
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 5: were probably five or six challengeable calls just within the

462
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 5: first couple of innings of the game that you know,

463
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 5: now that you see the abs instituted, it can drastically

464
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 5: impact the way an inning goes right, just like one

465
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 5: ball call or one strike call at the wrong moment

466
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 5: can drastically kind of impact the vibes of an inning

467
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 5: and the direction in it inning goes. But the ball

468
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 5: is slightly different than the Major league ball, and you

469
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 5: know the quality of teams is so disparate that you

470
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 5: can get just such blowout scores. You know, these semi

471
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 5: pro pitchers pitching against Korean Baseball organization like major league

472
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 5: caliber hitters, It's definitely gonna lead to some blowouts. And

473
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 5: there is a mercy rule in the tournament. So when

474
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 5: you have these teams in these games that are minus

475
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 5: nine hundred lines, and Japan, for instance, is playing the

476
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 5: Czech Republic, the total really just comes down to how

477
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 5: quickly does Japan reach the mercy threshold, which I believe

478
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 5: is leading by ten plus runs in the seventh inning.

479
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 5: I think if you're up by ten plus in the

480
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 5: seventh inning, the game just stops. So is Japan up

481
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 5: ten to nothing by the seventh inning, are they up

482
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 5: fourteen nothing or.

483
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,239
Speaker 3: Fourteen totals action In that scenario.

484
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 5: Totals remain action regardless of when the game settles. Interesting,

485
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 5: So you are handicapping and a lot of these blow

486
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 5: I would say you're handicapping the mercy rule and how

487
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 5: often I think the mercy role comes into effect. Korea

488
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 5: didn't hit it last night, but they did score six runs,

489
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 5: and they were up six to nothing after the first

490
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 5: three innings. But then they start to throw. They're lesser pitchers,

491
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 5: right because they don't need why way that game. So

492
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 5: then Czech Republics able to get some runs on the

493
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 5: board in the game extent and they ended up winning

494
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 5: eleven four, So they didn't hit the mercy threshold. I

495
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 5: expected them to hit it about one third of the

496
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,719
Speaker 5: time last night. They didn't get there. But this is

497
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 5: you know, this is my general like plea. There's no

498
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 5: good ways to bet on those games. So if you

499
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 5: work for a book, please start hanging a two way

500
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 5: mercy market so I have something interesting to potentially analyze

501
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 5: their bet on the game, because I'm not as interested

502
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 5: in betting a plus or minus six and a half

503
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 5: spread or an over under eleven and a half for

504
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 5: a game that may end be a mercy role. I'm

505
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 5: much more interested in betting whether or not that game

506
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 5: is gonna end be a mercary role.

507
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 1: And we're not seeing totals hung right now. I'm on DraftKings.

508
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: We just have money lines right now for all of

509
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: the games that are still to come. Is that that's

510
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: something that you think will change as the tournament gets

511
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: going and the books are more comfortable with how to

512
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: hang those totals or run lines in the game.

513
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,479
Speaker 5: Absolutely. I think the price discovery for though we were

514
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 5: chatting before the show, I think the price discovery for

515
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 5: the opening game was fascinating because the line was up there.

516
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 5: The money line was up there for hours, and none

517
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 5: of the books, offshore, on shore, whatever, none of them

518
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 5: are rolling to put up a total. Somebody offshore eventually

519
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 5: put one up eleven and a half juice to the over.

520
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 5: Other domestics put them up eleven and a half juice

521
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 5: to the under. I took eleven and a half minus

522
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 5: one fifteen because I made the total ten point six.

523
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 5: I could have made it even lower than that, and

524
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 5: the total ended up closing at nine and a half.

525
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,439
Speaker 5: So books probably got killed on that under in the

526
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 5: first game. I would imagine some people probably tried to

527
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 5: get the under in the second game after seeing, you know,

528
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 5: an offense like Taiwan's not score anything against the bad

529
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 5: pitching staff at Australia, disfiguring you know, it was playing

530
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 5: closer to a major league run environment. But you can't

531
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: really factor, as I said, for the lack of quality

532
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 5: of the CHECKI of pitching. So it is difficult for

533
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 5: these books I would imagine to measure some of the

534
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 5: quality of these teams, and again the emergency rule stuff

535
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 5: and when that's going to come into effect and how

536
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 5: that might affect the total. But also we don't have

537
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 5: a lot of starting pitchers for the matchups tomorrow as

538
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 5: of yet. As we get deeper into the tournament, we'll

539
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 5: know who's starting these games and as a result, they'll

540
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 5: be able to put out the projected totals a little

541
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 5: bit earlier. I think right now they're probably putting out

542
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 5: these games off of like an average of the pitching

543
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 5: staffs instead of taking a specific starter and putting them

544
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 5: for sixty five pitches or what have you at the

545
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 5: start of the game. So I think the probable pitching

546
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 5: unknown nature is actually impacting the lack of totals being

547
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 5: hung just as much as the price discovery aspect as well.

548
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 1: What about the I'm going to ask the super Chalky

549
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: question here because I think we all are looking at

550
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: this Team USA roster and going why would I not

551
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: bet them to be the champion at the end of

552
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: this Minus one to ten right now is the best

553
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: number I could find? Is that a good idea? Is

554
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: there a roster that you think can go toe to toe?

555
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 1: I know Dominican is strong, Japan obviously they've got Otani,

556
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 1: But can anybody stand up with the roster this super

557
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: team the Team USA has created.

558
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Dominicans certainly can. I think when you put

559
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 5: best nine versus best nine, they stack up really closely.

560
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 5: If you're playing a full season and talking about twenty

561
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 5: five man roster depth, USA is clearly better because I

562
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 5: think fourteen of their fifteen hitters and almost all of

563
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 5: their pitchers project for you know, a WRC plus over

564
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 5: one hundred and a fifth under four. When you compare

565
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 5: that to the DRS roster, there's a lot more below

566
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 5: average hitters on the DR bench. There's a lot more

567
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 5: below average pitchers or sub four foo pitchers in the

568
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 5: back of their bullpen. But when you're talking about one

569
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 5: nine in in game and being able to consolidate for

570
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: that game, and even with Crisanchez probably going again as

571
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,479
Speaker 5: Paul Skins in that game, and even if you give

572
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 5: the USA home field in that game in what is

573
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 5: likely to be the semi final on the left hand

574
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 5: side of the bracket, I still would have trouble getting

575
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 5: USA above fifty five percent in that one particular matchup.

576
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 5: I think these teams are super duper close Offensively. I

577
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 5: think the DR has the pitching style to suppress teams

578
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 5: in this tournament because they're going to keep the ball

579
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 5: on the ground. I think the USA's pitching staff is

580
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 5: going to permit a lot more fly balls than the

581
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 5: ERA that could turn into home runs, especially against the

582
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 5: potent offense like the Dominican Republic. And I think the

583
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 5: DR is a better defensive team as well. The other

584
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 5: thing I've discussed too in my Futures preview, it's a

585
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 5: lot easier for Albert Poolhols's the DR manager, to pick

586
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 5: his starting nine. His starting nine is very obvious, his

587
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 5: best nine players are very obvious, and frankly, the hierarchy

588
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 5: of his bullpen rankings is pretty obvious too. Mark de Rosa,

589
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 5: who's managing for Team USA, has a lot more difficult

590
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 5: decisions to make in terms of who are his best

591
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 5: nine players, whether to pinch hit for dudes, whether to

592
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 5: start pinch hitting left these for rightings. He almost is

593
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 5: like too many options that it could be paralysis by

594
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 5: analysis because he's going to make the wrong decisions just

595
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 5: because there's too many options for him to potentially make

596
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 5: the wrong decisions with. So it's almost like the US

597
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,239
Speaker 5: has an embarrassment of riches to the point where it

598
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,719
Speaker 5: may overload their managers decision making. But really, in a

599
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 5: in a one game format, which I ultimately expected to

600
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 5: come down to between these teams, it's very close to

601
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 5: a coin flip. So we could talk about Japan and

602
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 5: why I'm down on Japan, but I'm very much up

603
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 5: on the dr in this lineup, and I think it's

604
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 5: everybody as good as the team. He says, line up,

605
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 5: is there.

606
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 3: Anything that you can that you also have had the

607
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 3: fact that you have the US is going to have

608
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 3: a ton of players that aren't used to not being

609
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: full time players right that you're going to be calling

610
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 3: on to then come in to pinch it right, like.

611
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 5: So unfamiliar roles.

612
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, But.

613
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 3: Is there anything that you're looking for with the rosa

614
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: for like specific like with Howie or is it just

615
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 3: like an overall general how he handles things like over

616
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 3: the course of the tournament, whereas you would like maybe

617
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 3: penalize the US for you know, lack of managed like

618
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 3: you know, effective management as far as like how he

619
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 3: builds a line up, how when he's pinch hitting. Is

620
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 3: there you know, anything in the defense. Is there anything

621
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: that you're looking for specifically with what he does or

622
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: is it more just like a general observation over time?

623
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 5: How he the team he puts out is going to

624
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 5: affect the projection for the game. Because if he plays

625
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 5: an outfield with PCA and Buckston next to one another

626
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 5: somehow like that's as good of an elite defensive outfield

627
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 5: as you could get. Judge in the corner can bring

628
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 5: that down a little bit, but you know, I'm assuming

629
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 5: they're going to play like Roman Anthony in a corner

630
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 5: with Judge have a little bit better a hitter in

631
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 5: there than either PCA or Bucks. Then it's just like

632
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 5: the impact that that those roster boos are going to

633
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 5: have hitting judge second versus third, hitting Bregman fifth versus sixth,

634
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 5: and putting rally in front of him. Like, these are

635
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 5: decisions that you want to see the opthamal lineup be made.

636
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 5: But ultimately the impact on the projection is going to

637
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 5: be relatively minimal for one game over the course again

638
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 5: of one hundred and sixty two games. It has a

639
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 5: little bit more interest to me. That said, like, I

640
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: don't really factor in managers. I don't really handicap managers

641
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 5: a handicap Manager of the Year awards, because that's something

642
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 5: I can project out based on voter behavior relative to

643
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 5: how teams perform, you know, for an MLB regular season.

644
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 5: But I don't really give managers a specific handicap. It's

645
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 5: definitely much more anecdotal in terms of how I analyze them.

646
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 5: But no, I think the role familiarity is definitely something

647
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 5: to think about. You know, there are guys in the

648
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 5: DR bench who if you want to bring them in

649
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 5: off the bench or accustomed to doing that team USA,

650
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 5: all these guys are used to starting the game. You know,

651
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 5: if they bring in any starting pitchers and relief, those

652
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 5: guys aren't really used to handling that role. If they're

653
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 5: bringing in guys who are accustomed to closing and non

654
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 5: closing roles, that's not really a spot they're used to

655
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 5: coming into. So I do think the role familiarity aspect,

656
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 5: while it's not possible to quantify, is certainly something we're

657
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 5: thinking about. And again, consolidating everything to a one game

658
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 5: scenario just sort of stresses out the favoritism that the

659
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 5: USA has in the tournament, to be clear. To be

660
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 5: very clear, I modeled all of this out blindly, and

661
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 5: my model made the USA exactly minus one ten to

662
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 5: win the tournament, which is what they are. If you

663
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 5: can get plus money on Team you said when the tournament,

664
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 5: take it. But I show a bigger edge on the

665
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 5: Nvitican Republic. I make them about plus three fifty five.

666
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 5: So anything four to one or better on the DR

667
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 5: I think is a good bet right now. You don't

668
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 5: have to bet it huge, though, because I'm still expecting

669
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 5: them to face Team USA and then from there I'm

670
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 5: probably betting them straight up in that game and then

671
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 5: maybe even rolling it over against their likely finals opponents.

672
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 5: So the DR is the future, but you're probably gonna

673
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 5: have a chance to bet them head to head against

674
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 5: Team USA in the semi final.

675
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: Anyway, Sean Cammy Rollo, the one question I've been I'll

676
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 3: let Brandon ask maybe about a potential long shot or

677
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 3: anyone that could surprise, and we could We obviously want

678
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 3: to mention Japan. But is there and maybe that the

679
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 3: data on this is just too small a sample size,

680
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 3: but is there any impact to this tournament into the

681
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: MLB regular season for pitchers, for specific players, Is there

682
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: anything that you're thinking about? It could be awards market

683
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 3: and we're going to have an episode with you, Nat

684
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: and then we'll do team team previews in a few weeks.

685
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 3: But is there anything like carryover effect or like how

686
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: it impacts certain teams or players that you're thinking about,

687
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 3: or is that a mood.

688
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 5: Point Edwin Diaz got hurt in the last WBC, which

689
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,479
Speaker 5: obviously impacted the Mets chances very specifically in that year

690
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 5: because it kind of stretched out their bullpen. So I

691
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 5: think any injury news that arises all of this certainly

692
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 5: would impact the regular season. That's obvious though, right There

693
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 5: has been studies done to try to investigate whether pitchers

694
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 5: who throw in the WBC, because that pitches are a

695
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 5: little bit higher stressed than they would be in spring

696
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 5: training about whether those pitches are likelier to get hurt

697
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 5: during the regular season. It seems unclear, but leaning towards no,

698
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 5: that there's a negative correlation or no correlation, not a

699
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 5: strong correlation to that. So no, I think there's probably

700
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 5: minimal takeaways at this point, you know, to the mention

701
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 5: of longer shots or cinderellas that I like in this tournament, though,

702
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 5: I think it really mostly comes down to the group pairings,

703
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 5: because two of them, for me, are in Pool A,

704
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 5: and it has a lot to do with the fact

705
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 5: that Puerto Rico remains a name brand. I mean, they're

706
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 5: a name brand team and they're playing at home, but

707
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 5: the players on that roster are not reflective of what

708
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 5: you typically see from Puerto Rico, going back to like

709
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 5: the two thousand and six WBC. I mean, they're roster's hilarious.

710
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 5: It's Pad Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. It's like full of

711
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 5: Hall of famers. Really right now, it's just a bunch

712
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 5: of very good relievers, including Edwin Diaz Fernando Cruz from

713
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 5: the Yankees. But the other teams in that pool, in

714
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 5: my opinion. Panama Canada in particular are right there with

715
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 5: Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico's odds on to win Pool A

716
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 5: I make them about two to one, which means I

717
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 5: see value elsewhere. Canada is a massive edge. For me,

718
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 5: this is the best team Canada's ever sent. But Canada

719
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 5: has never been outside of a pool that had one

720
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 5: of Mexico or the USA, let alone both. They avoided

721
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 5: both this time around. This is actually the softest draw

722
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 5: they've ever had and the best roster they've ever sent.

723
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 5: And because of the fact that they've never advanced in

724
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 5: five WBCs previously, I think you're getting substantial value on Canada.

725
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 5: Panama has a very deep roster and also has a

726
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 5: lot of speed on there too. I think they're a

727
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 5: very interesting team to potentially eliminate Puerto Rico in advance,

728
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 5: and then the other team would be Italy, who I

729
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 5: believe is in Pool B along with the United States.

730
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure they are anyway, but Italy. For me,

731
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 5: they've recruited a lot of guys who are major league

732
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 5: caliber players or minor league caliber players. But what I

733
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 5: like for this tournament in particular, they have a lot

734
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 5: of power and they have a lot of major league

735
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 5: power going up against minor league pitching. And when you're

736
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 5: talking about these guys who have struggled a little bit

737
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 5: at the major league level, like Jack Kligly Noon to

738
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 5: put the bat on the ball, Well, you send them

739
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 5: out there against guys who are minor league caliber pitchers,

740
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 5: I think they're going to hit the piss out of

741
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 5: the ball. So a team like Italy in a tournament

742
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 5: like this, even though I project them as a below

743
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 5: average major league offense, they have very loud tools and

744
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,760
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna make a lot of noise against

745
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 5: a bit lesser pitching the USA is pitching, but teams

746
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 5: beyond USA who throw below average major league pitching. So yeah,

747
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 5: there's a lot of value to be had in this tournament.

748
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 5: I like all the all three of those teams that

749
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 5: I mentioned quite a bit to advance, uh to maybe

750
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 5: even win their pools, especially in Canada's case. But there's

751
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 5: there's value up and down the board here. And just

752
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 5: really excited to watch these games. And like I said,

753
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 5: I've mentioned the futures, like the dr future for example,

754
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 5: you're gonna have opportunities to bet your opinions on a

755
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 5: game to game basis as well. So if I'm high

756
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 5: on one team at a pulling low on another, yes,

757
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 5: you could bet the future, but I'm also anticipating that

758
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be betting that head to head matchup as well.

759
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: On Canada, just one not familiar with the Nailers, right

760
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 3: Bow nailor.

761
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 5: The Nailers are the main pieces there. They also have

762
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 5: Freddie Freeman unfortunately is not on the roster, but Tyler O'Neill, Owen, Casey,

763
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 5: Tyler Black, Otto Lopez. Denzel Clark is probably the most

764
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 5: important piece that most people are not aware of. Denzel

765
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 5: Clark was the center field briefly for the Sacramento As

766
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 5: last year. He put up a record setting number of

767
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 5: home run robberies and defensive run saved in a very

768
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 5: limited amount of playing time. So Denzel Clark might be

769
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 5: the best defender in the tournament. They make a lot

770
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 5: of contact. The pitching is okay. It's more so that

771
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 5: they have length as opposed to high quality arms though,

772
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 5: and again in any other pool, I would not be

773
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 5: as high in their pitching staff. But against the teams

774
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 5: that they're actually playing, Kyle Quantrell, Jamison, ty Mike Soroka,

775
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,479
Speaker 5: Logan Allen that might be enough to win their group,

776
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 5: let alone get through it. So yeah, I think this

777
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 5: is a very competent team that Canada is sent.

778
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: Again.

779
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 5: I wish Freddie Freeman was there, Nick Pavetta or Matt

780
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 5: Brash where they were with them, because then I think

781
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 5: it would be a really serious team that you can

782
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 5: consider a Tier two contender. But right now I still

783
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 5: think they win this group about a third of the time,

784
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 5: and you can get as tigh as plus three fifty.

785
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick peek at the MVP market. Aaron

786
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 1: Judge is the odds on favorite. He's a team captain

787
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: for Team USA plus seven to fifty, so Tani is

788
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: right behind him. If Japan is able to advance deep

789
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 1: into the tournament, and certainly if they were to win, He's.

790
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: An auto dub for this award.

791
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: But you're not expecting that, So I would think Otani

792
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: the name pops out and he'll draw action because he's Otani.

793
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: That seems like a bad bet. Is do you agree

794
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: with that? And is there somebody that you see, maybe

795
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 1: deeper down the board that you think has a shot

796
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:25,280
Speaker 1: at MVP.

797
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, really tough thing for me. To handicap. Obviously, because

798
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 5: I'm picking the dr to win, I would be looking

799
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 5: at guys from that team. I may as well mention,

800
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 5: you know, on the Otani piece, not only is Otani

801
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 5: not pitching for this team in this tournament, but U Darvish,

802
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 5: Roki Sasaki, showtem Naga, all of whom are key contributors

803
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 5: for them on the mound in the last tournament. None

804
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 5: of them are pitching in this tournament. You're either so

805
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 5: Japan's pitching DEPP is much worse than it was last time.

806
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 5: Their defensive quality is also awful. There's like four or

807
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 5: five guys on the team who are all better served

808
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 5: as dhs than they are position players. Otani is actually

809
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 5: their best defensive outfielder, probably when you break down by

810
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 5: actual skill set, he just is not allowed or permitted

811
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 5: to play the outfield. So I'm down on Japan in general.

812
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 3: Then is gonna pitch? Does this guy have an alien?

813
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 3: I know he has an alien arm is gonna pitch?

814
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 5: What's really funny about Yamamoto is they're actually so. Japan

815
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 5: lost to Chinese, Taipei or Taiwan in the last Premier

816
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 5: twelve tournament, which is basically the non Major League Baseball

817
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 5: players playing like a Olympic style of tournament in the

818
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 5: off years for the WBC. So the Japanese players were there,

819
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 5: their best players were there, the non MLB players. Taiwan

820
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 5: actually beat Japan in the final in Tokyo, and Japan

821
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 5: fired their manager. They have a new manager and they're starting.

822
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 5: They're so mad at Taiwan. They're starting Yamamoto against Taiwan,

823
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 5: who is already oh and one at five am on

824
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 5: Friday morning because they just want to eliminate Taiwan and

825
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 5: get them out of the tournament. That's how mad they

826
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 5: are about that Premier twelve result. So Yamamoto is pitching

827
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 5: for Japan. They also have the reigning Saurimura Award winner.

828
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 5: I believe he was the first one to win the

829
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 5: award since Yamamoto won it. If you're unaware, basically the

830
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 5: cy young in Japan, you can win it, but if

831
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 5: the media does not deem somebody as deserving of the award,

832
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 5: you just keep it until somebody else is deserving of it.

833
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 5: So Yamamoto I believe, has been the reigning winner or

834
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 5: holder of that award for like several years. At this point,

835
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 5: they finally deemed somebody else capable of winning that I

836
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 5: believe host start against Koreas. So they're still pitching quality

837
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,240
Speaker 5: on this team. I just don't think it's as deep

838
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 5: as it was last time out, and I don't think

839
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 5: the lineup for the defense is as good as it

840
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 5: was last time either, So that's kind of my takeaway

841
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 5: on Japan. I could talk about the splitter stuff too,

842
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 5: like Japan's success in the last tournament caused pitch type

843
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 5: changes in MLB, you saw splitter usage increase every year,

844
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 5: but splitters have also gotten worse at effectiveness every year.

845
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 5: And I actually think the players in this tournament are

846
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 5: more capable of hitting Japanese pitch types than they were

847
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 5: in the last tournament too. So there's a number of

848
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 5: reasons why I'm lower on Japan in this tournament and

849
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 5: why I do think the champion ultimately comes from the USA,

850
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 5: Dominican Republican.

851
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 2: Is there an MVP that you like in.

852
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 5: Shalah wants So? I don't know if you saw Wan

853
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 5: Soto take off the batting helmet yesterday and seemed like

854
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 5: he had converted his religion, but I just feel like

855
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 5: Juan Soto is absolutely locked in at this point right now,

856
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 5: the entire team DR looks like they're locked in. I

857
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 5: also think they may have sent some juice baseballs down

858
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 5: to the DR for their exhibition games against the Tigers

859
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 5: because they were just hitting piss missiles to all areas

860
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 5: of the field. But yeah, this DR lineup is loaded.

861
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 5: I'm expecting Juan Soto, with all the protection around him,

862
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 5: to absolutely feast in this tournament. So Wan Soto would

863
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 5: be my pick. But it's you know, it's purely from

864
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 5: the gut. It's just based off of thinking he's going

865
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 5: to mash for a team that I expect when the tournament.

866
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 3: Zarella relying on getting excited for Juan Soto. I think

867
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 3: he's betting the Mets to win the division, his Mets

868
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 3: for the first time in five years. We're setting up

869
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 3: setting up for quite the disappointing year for that typical

870
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 3: Mets pain. I will say, Brandon, just to Ecker sentiment,

871
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 3: MVP is hard to pick. I don't know how the

872
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 3: I assume it's voted for by some body or I

873
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 3: don't know, but I did just go back and look,

874
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 3: it's obviously a tiny sample size, and you have to

875
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 3: like the MVP has since two thousand and six. What

876
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 3: has there been five winners? Has all come from the

877
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 3: the winning team? Like I was trying to think, like,

878
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 3: is there a way that someone could win this MVP

879
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 3: without winning it all? They probably have to get pretty far.

880
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: But as far as other like a potential long shot,

881
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 3: I've just I can't say I handicapped this, but I've

882
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 3: just seen on the interwebs a couple people mention then

883
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 3: as well as a potential dark orse. Any thoughts there.

884
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I don't think their pitching is as deep

885
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 5: as what they sent last time. They have three arms

886
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,479
Speaker 5: that I trust. They they have a number of major league,

887
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 5: minor league guys. Their lineup is really good. There's some

888
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 5: decent speed there as well. I mean, Ronaldacuter Junior wasn't

889
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 5: there for the last tournament. He is there for this tournament.

890
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 5: So they upgraded the lineup, but I think they've downgraded

891
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 5: the pitching staff. I basically tiered out all these teams,

892
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 5: you know, Tiers one through five, check Brazil, Tier or

893
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 5: Tier five, USA, Japan, Dominican Republic, Tier one. Venezuela is

894
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 5: my loan team on Tier two. I think they are

895
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 5: a viable champion. I think They're a team who can

896
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 5: absolutely win the tournament. The Tier three teams like Korea, Italy,

897
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 5: Mexico I think can advance in the tournament. I think

898
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 5: they could maybe even surprise and make the finals. I

899
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,919
Speaker 5: do not expect them to win, though, Venezuela I still

900
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 5: think can win this tournament. I think I have them

901
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 5: at about six percent, whereas Japan, Italy USA are over

902
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 5: eighty percent combined, so there's a share of the tournament

903
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 5: where they win. There's absolutely talent there. They have some

904
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 5: nice relievers Danny Palencia, but I still think the talent

905
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 5: gap between them and a team like the DR is

906
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 5: wide enough that I'm actually picking the DR not only

907
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:45,919
Speaker 5: to win the tournament, but to win their group as well.

908
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 5: Or they're pool I make them about minus one seventy

909
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 5: five in Pool D, and I'm lower on Venezuela, So

910
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 5: that may indicate that in a head to head matchup

911
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 5: DR versus Venezuela, I might be betting the DR as

912
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 5: well in that matchup. So yeah, I think they're absolutely

913
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 5: viable champion. The lineup is really good. Just the pitching,

914
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 5: I don't know if it's quite enough to make it

915
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 5: and win the final.

916
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 1: Make sure, you go and follow all of his action

917
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 1: at the Action Network app or a Actionnetwork dot com.

918
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 1: Nobody handicapping the World Baseball Classic quite like this guy,

919
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: so go.

920
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 2: And tail those.

921
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo already mentioned to us that he's eyeing a

922
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: nice plus money play for tomorrow, so sit tight for

923
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: twenty four hours.

924
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: Heah your money line. I don't know when they play next.

925
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: We're coming right.

926
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 5: They play Australia at at ten pm on Thursday night,

927
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 5: so I think I make that game about plus three

928
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 5: fifty for check yea, so we'll see. Maybe I do

929
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 5: bet on the checks.

930
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,439
Speaker 2: Look at that handing out dubs on the way out.

931
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our

932
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, statsound to Evan Abrams

933
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: helping us in the background. More great content coming up

934
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 1: tomorrow with this man right here, Sean Zarillo.

935
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 2: The Favorites.

936
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: You can follow us on the Action Network YouTube page

937
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: and wherever you download your favorite podcast. We'll see you

938
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.

939
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 6: The Crown is yours.

940
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

941
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

942
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 5: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

943
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler