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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're throwing in so spec I'm sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash stop.

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Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined

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Speaker 2: as always by the one, the only, Brandon Anderson for

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Speaker 2: some best bets for this divisional round. We'll get to

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Speaker 2: some best bets shortly, but Brandon first, what's up man?

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Speaker 2: How are you?

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Speaker 1: I'm good man. We had a lot of fun watching

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Speaker 1: a glorious stretch of football from my money, even though

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Speaker 1: we had the five days stretch. This three days coming up.

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Speaker 1: Now that we got the Ohio State Dame on the

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Speaker 1: back end and these matchups, like we know, look, I

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Speaker 1: know it's hindsight twenty twenty. We had a lot of

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Speaker 1: blowouts last weekend. We warned of that. We knew that

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Speaker 1: we get a lot of blowouts on a wild card

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Speaker 1: I think divisional round. We have the final eight teams.

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Speaker 1: Now these matchups are so good to dig into. Just

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Speaker 1: like even last weekend, you kind of can tell, like,

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Speaker 1: I'll probably have to watch Buffalo Denver all too closely.

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Speaker 1: You can kind of set your schedule. We're watching all

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Speaker 1: these games, baby, like this is good football, gonna be

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Speaker 1: a good weekend ahead, and a lot of bets here.

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Speaker 2: Historically this is the weekend that we get the good games,

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Speaker 2: So I mean, this is kind of what we wait

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Speaker 2: for all year. I know everyone was watching those games

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Speaker 2: last week and being like, oh, I hope Buffalo and

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Speaker 2: Baltimore don't blow this, just looking ahead literally to this game.

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Speaker 2: So all right, but we're gonna start first with some

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Speaker 2: trends and just some topics around the NFL before we

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Speaker 2: get We're gonna go game by game here with Brandon

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Speaker 2: Brandon's bets, but right now, let's just start. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: start with Matt Mike Rabel go into the Patriots, so,

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Speaker 2: you know, off the bat, obviously Mayo out Rabel in, Well,

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Speaker 2: what's your thoughts. I have a few notes here on

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Speaker 2: what I think Rabel will bring to New England, but

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Speaker 2: I'm just curious your thoughts. Off the bat.

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Speaker 1: I don't love it. It feels rushed to me, it

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Speaker 1: feels like, Okay, it feels like the Patriots rushed into

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Speaker 1: girod Mayo last year as the Belichick replacement, and it

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Speaker 1: feels like they're doing more of the same when I

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Speaker 1: would rather like you, you can't replace the legend. There's

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Speaker 1: no Belichick left. The Patriot way is a thing of

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Speaker 1: the past. I think i'd be excited, genuinely about Drake

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Speaker 1: may who I think is maybe a top ten potential

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Speaker 1: quarterback going in the next year with something new, something fresh,

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Speaker 1: and instead it feels like just a little more of

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Speaker 1: the same. It felt rushed the way that they immediately

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Speaker 1: made the decision, like, Okay, were those other interviews really

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Speaker 1: interviews or were you just gonna hire Rabel all the

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Speaker 1: way along. I get it. I get the culture aspect,

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Speaker 1: I get the toughness aspect. Very Dan Campbell sort of

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Speaker 1: feel higher to it. I don't love Mike Rabel as

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Speaker 1: a head coach honestly either. I thought in game a

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Speaker 1: thing that head coaches are especially important, that those decisions

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Speaker 1: on when to be aggressive, when to punt on fourth

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Speaker 1: down and go for it. A couple of Rabel decisions

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Speaker 1: stick out positively, But he made a lot of very

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Speaker 1: conservative in game decisions. I don't love that. And also

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Speaker 1: a main thing for me that I think is underrated

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Speaker 1: skill for head coaches. You've got to hire the right coordinators,

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Speaker 1: and I don't love the coordinators that he is hired

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Speaker 1: in the past. Defensively, it's not gone well. Offensively, chooses

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Speaker 1: a very conservative run first type offense. Guys also again

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Speaker 1: don't love that. For Drake May, you got a quarterback

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Speaker 1: that I think, can you know, grip and rip it

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So I think he's going to get

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Speaker 1: a good grade because everybody knows Mike Rabel, He's going

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Speaker 1: to be a guy that all the ATS trends are

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Speaker 1: telling you to bet on as the underdog because that

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Speaker 1: that all worked out well and we probably will. But

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Speaker 1: as a hier for the team, it leaves me a

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Speaker 1: little cold.

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Speaker 2: It is just funny that the two guys right after

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Speaker 2: Belichick were you know, players for the team. Like it

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Speaker 2: felt very easy to go in internal, at least at first,

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Speaker 2: to try to go away from the legend and try

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Speaker 2: to find your way out of this. I did look

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Speaker 2: up some stats. Now. The thing at the end here

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Speaker 2: after I give you just some raw numbers is my

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Speaker 2: question mark, which is the end game stuff. Like I

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Speaker 2: felt like when he was with Tennessee, all the raw

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Speaker 2: data was good at certain points for his teams, but

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Speaker 2: the in game adjustments or the you know, decide to

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Speaker 2: go forward or not go forward on fourth down, there

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Speaker 2: is just certain things I you know, didn't love at points.

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Speaker 2: But Tennessee caused opposing teams to commit the most penalties

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Speaker 2: in the NFL and third most yards in his six

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Speaker 2: years there, which is always a good thing. It's a

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Speaker 2: discipline team. His defense had the seventh most pressures on

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Speaker 2: the twentieth most blitzes, so like decent overall, Like he

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Speaker 2: made other quarterbacks, you know, not make it so easy.

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Speaker 2: And then his offense had the fourth fewest turnovers, which

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Speaker 2: I tend to like. So in terms of like just

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Speaker 2: a numbers point of view, with the quarterbacks that he

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Speaker 2: had there and the job he did, I think he

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Speaker 2: did a dec job. You mentioned it fifty six ats

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Speaker 2: Dog forty four percent favorite, But none of that really matters.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think we love Drake May in a sense,

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Speaker 2: so we hope that that's like a positive going forward.

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Speaker 2: But I think that's our assessment on Frabel good there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think he's an excellent floor raiser,

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Speaker 1: for sure, But I think it was interesting. You know

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Speaker 1: that the Steelers go out and lose with Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 1: and everyone's all upset about it, and the next morning

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Speaker 1: the Patriots hire Mike Rabel and it feels like a

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Speaker 1: very similar sort of hire. And I guess just like

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Speaker 1: when you have Drake May in a fresh start, I

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Speaker 1: want the ceiling. I want to go for Ben Johnson.

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Speaker 1: I want to go for something big, And I think

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel certainly is a good hire, like he is

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Speaker 1: going to get you to outperform expectations. That is a

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Speaker 1: good thing. But is it a good thing? And is

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Speaker 1: it enough of a good thing? Because look how happy

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Speaker 1: our Steelers fans outperformed guy a winneror two and then

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Speaker 1: getting crushed in the playoffs every year. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's what you want with the fresh start here. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you thought about barely going over expectations, and we

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Speaker 2: literally both thought about the Steelers Steelers at the same time. Okay,

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Speaker 2: next one here, Cowboys, dunt McCarthy. And then the question

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Speaker 2: is for what I'll let you kind of ride first

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Speaker 2: here since the Cowboys don't have their guy yet, But

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Speaker 2: I have a few notes on McCarthy we could talk

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Speaker 2: about and then we could kind of move on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like we've talked about this a few

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Speaker 1: times throughout the year. I think this was a little

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Speaker 1: too late to move on from McCarthy. So certainly better

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Speaker 1: late than never. I mean, just what are we doing

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Speaker 1: with the Like we don't allow him to interview with

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Speaker 1: Chicago and then a week later we move on from

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Speaker 1: him anyway, Like that whole thing is just a mass.

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Speaker 1: Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones. They got to find a

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Speaker 1: way to be in the conversation or on the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So that's about the way they did it. This was

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Speaker 1: a lame duck season, I think for McCarthy. I'm disappointed myself.

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Speaker 1: Way back in like February March last year, getting ready

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Speaker 1: for the season, I was all out on Dallas. I

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Speaker 1: was ready to fade this team into oblivion. They kept

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Speaker 1: the coaches. We watched them get destroyed last year and

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Speaker 1: then the next day be like, yeah, we're keeping everyone.

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Speaker 1: What that doesn't make any sense? And that kind of

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Speaker 1: played out like we expected. In the meantime, I came

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Speaker 1: back around and I was like, I don't know, they'll

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Speaker 1: probably be good in the regular season, and then choking

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Speaker 1: the playoffs again didn't happen. I don't want McCarthy going forward.

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Speaker 1: I know he's gonna be a popular name mentioned with

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Speaker 1: some of these other teams. Again, I want something new,

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Speaker 1: I want something fresh. I don't think that McCarthy, even

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Speaker 1: as a floor raising offensive guy for quarterbacks, they get it,

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Speaker 1: but not a name I'm excited about. I think personally that,

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Speaker 1: even though I'd have to wait, I believe until June first.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Bill Belichick thing is completely dead here.

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Speaker 1: I think that that is a possibility if they decide

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Speaker 1: to go that route. Certainly Jerry would pay what he

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Speaker 1: needs to. But I'm gonna kind of go off the

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Speaker 1: books here, not really off the books. This is on

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Speaker 1: the books. I'm here for the Dion thing. Bring the chaos.

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Speaker 1: Dion coaching Dallas is just fun. It's just entertaining. The

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Speaker 1: Cowboys are America's team in the sense of we all

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Speaker 1: have to pay attention and talk about them like they're

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Speaker 1: the lebron of the NFL. Whatever the Cowboys do, we're

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Speaker 1: leading with that on the show we have to because

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Speaker 1: you all want to hear about it, and I want

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Speaker 1: to hear about Dion. I want to talk about Dion.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about Dean doing ridiculous things as

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Speaker 1: the coach. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me,

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Speaker 1: But just from a content standpoint, let's go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean other than Dion. I mean people have

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Speaker 2: talked about Jason Witten, I believe as another option obviously,

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Speaker 2: Ben Johnson, Bill Belichick. You know, what if what if

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Speaker 2: Jerry gets enamored with like Cliff Kingsbury? Does that feel insane?

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Speaker 2: Like what if Washington wins like a game or two?

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Speaker 2: But I'm just trying to like kind of see a

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Speaker 2: path down a road here. I mean, if if Dion

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Speaker 2: is a sexy aspect for him and Cliff could be

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Speaker 2: kind of similar there. But the stat I had here,

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Speaker 2: which I think McCarthy's best is probably behind him. But

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Speaker 2: he has eleven seasons of ten plus covers, which feels

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Speaker 2: impressive two seasons a fewer than seven covers because he

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Speaker 2: usually from like a betting point of view, keeps his

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Speaker 2: teams afloat. Uh. The thing that kind of says who

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Speaker 2: he is as a coach with Rogers in far fifty

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Speaker 2: nine percent against the spread one sixteen and eighty one.

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Speaker 2: All other quarterbacks he's even fifty three and fifty three.

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Speaker 2: So it's just kind of what he's gotten along the way.

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Speaker 2: Obviously he's been with Dak Rogers and far of in

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Speaker 2: his career, so it's been kind of nice, nice at points,

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Speaker 2: but interesting nonetheless anything else there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Kellen Moore probably is the sort of

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Speaker 1: more vanilla fit that is is shit bringing him back.

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Speaker 1: I haven't really loved what he's done with the Eagles

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Speaker 1: this year. I'm not sure i'd love the fit there.

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Speaker 1: That again, to me is I'm looking for splash, Like

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Speaker 1: I would way rather try and fail with the coach

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Speaker 1: for two years than try again then bring in one

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Speaker 1: of these kind of like retread middle of the roads

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Speaker 1: like Joe Brady. I don't know about Joe Brady O'Brady.

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Speaker 1: He's done well with Buffalo that you know. Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: I think has played like the MVP this year under

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Speaker 1: his offense. You've got like we're going to get into

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Speaker 1: the coach openings now. It's I guess it's a good

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Speaker 1: way of transition into it. But I personally of the

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Speaker 1: seven coaching openings. I have Dallas number one. You've got

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Speaker 1: a star quarterback in Dak Prescott, who I think is

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Speaker 1: still a top seven guy. You got a stud receiver.

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Speaker 1: You got a superstar defender who I thought was probably

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Speaker 1: the best defender in the league this year, Micah Parsons

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Speaker 1: just in play enough to win DPOY. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of talent there. I know it's Jerry Jones. I know

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Speaker 1: it's all the media circus. I think Dallas is the

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Speaker 1: top job available, and so I don't want to bring

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Speaker 1: in in middle of the road vanilla Mike McCarthy sort

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Speaker 1: of guy. I want to go for this, like, of

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Speaker 1: all the jobs available, the right coach and the right

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Speaker 1: turnaround in Dallas that can make this a super Bowl

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Speaker 1: team this year and or for next year. So I

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Speaker 1: think Dallas is the number one job. Where do you

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Speaker 1: have Dallas on your head coach openings?

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Speaker 2: Well, so I guess the question is is, like how

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Speaker 2: do you rank openings? Like what is your pillar system

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Speaker 2: for what an opening means? I mean, I think the

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Speaker 2: easiest way to look at an opening is by quarterback.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four, twenty five, it's just probably the

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Speaker 2: most important aspect so like you would rank New England

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Speaker 2: above probably a few teams on this list that you

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Speaker 2: probably don't have a quarterback, Like the Jets have good pieces.

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Speaker 2: You would be in New York. Your owner's a bit

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Speaker 2: of a pain, but you don't have a quarterback. So

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Speaker 2: like New England situation. I mean, I think everyone agrees

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Speaker 2: Drake May is good. You have very little around Drake May.

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Speaker 2: We don't really know how your ownership because it's pretty

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Speaker 2: much been Belichick for twenty plus years and now you're

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Speaker 2: in a little disarray disarray. But so I would say

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Speaker 2: that from Dallas's point of view, I don't necessarily love

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Speaker 2: Dak at this point. I think having Ceedee Lamb is great.

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Speaker 2: I think you know, a few things go one way

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Speaker 2: or the other next year, you can end up in

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Speaker 2: a wild card kind of running back something similar. Like

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Rosters too over the hill, but

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Speaker 2: do I prefer Philly of course kind of at this point,

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Speaker 2: so I think New Orleans is a tough one because

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Speaker 2: they have no structure. But I kind of like the

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Speaker 2: situation in New Orleans. It feels a little open. It

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Speaker 2: feels like you could create something you want down there,

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Speaker 2: and you have a great fan base, and you know,

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Speaker 2: there's all sorts of positives around that. So I think

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Speaker 2: the Raiders actually are probably almost last on the list

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Speaker 2: for me in terms of the openings. There's just not

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Speaker 2: a lot of positives other than being in Vegas. And

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Speaker 2: when Vegas is the only thing that's nice about the

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Speaker 2: job other than the football team, that there's probably an

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Speaker 2: issue there.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I have the Raiders clearly last. Do you

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Speaker 1: have no quarterback? You really just don't have a lot

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Speaker 1: of talent. I love the defense played pretty well, but

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Speaker 1: I think that's Patrick Graham. And if you bring in

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Speaker 1: a new coach, do you keep the defensive coordinator? And

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Speaker 1: not often? And I know it's kind of short term thinking,

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Speaker 1: but look at the competition. To me, that's part of

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Speaker 1: it too. Is there a path here? And in the

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Speaker 1: Raiders you gotta kill against two games, Mahomes two games,

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Speaker 1: Herbert two games, Sean Payton and the Broncos. I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to quite put him with those other two. But

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Speaker 1: even just the coaching, you're up against Sean Payton twice

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Speaker 1: a year, Jim Hart twice a year, Andy Reid twice

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Speaker 1: a year, and Andy's probably not gonna be around forever.

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Speaker 1: But pat is so like that doesn't sound like a

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Speaker 1: real path to me. Tom Brady doesn't do much for

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Speaker 1: me there. That's clearly the worst I have. Saints second

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Speaker 1: worst from there, just not to me, Like, I think

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Speaker 1: you're right that if you want to, if I trust

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Speaker 1: that they're gonna hire me for five years and keep me,

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Speaker 1: and I can slow build toward that. Okay, it's like

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Speaker 1: a it's an empty slate. I can start over, but

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Speaker 1: it is an empty slate, and I do have to

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Speaker 1: start over, Like I think the Saints are still maybe

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Speaker 1: on the way down before they come back up. The

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Speaker 1: middle three for me Bears Caleb Williams, Patriots, Drake May, Jacksonville,

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. I put them in that order, with the

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Speaker 1: Bears last because I have Caleb Williams, last of those quarterbacks, Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: I didn't expect to be so high. But here's the

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Speaker 1: thing with the Jaguars. Don't love that they still have

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Speaker 1: trend Balky. The GM do not love that. That's not great.

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Speaker 1: If it wasn't for that, they got some interesting defensive pieces.

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Speaker 1: They have Trevor Lawrence, who I like, I think needs

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Speaker 1: a better start, and Brian Thomas, who looked awesome this year.

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Speaker 1: So you have two pieces. You've got the quarterback receiver

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Speaker 1: combo and you got the AFC South and we know

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Speaker 1: how we talked about that all year long. That is

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Speaker 1: screaming for a turnaround sort of roster there. So I

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Speaker 1: like that best about them. I had the Jets number

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Speaker 1: two and then Dallas. I think the Jets still have

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Speaker 1: Brace Hallid, Garrett Wilson, lots of defensive talent, Winna Bowl Division,

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Speaker 1: probably depending on where direction Miami's going in, but it's

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Speaker 1: the New York media mess. I don't know what's happened

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Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers and the ownership in GM. If you

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Speaker 1: have a quarterback, maybe they're not number two on this list.

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Speaker 1: I think maybe I should have put them a little

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Speaker 1: bit lower, but I think you're right. Getting that young quarterback,

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Speaker 1: or at least an avenue to get the quarterback, I

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Speaker 1: think is the way to go. I would just put

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Speaker 1: in a word for Dax still. I think that he

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Speaker 1: is perpetually underrated. I know we see him choking these

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Speaker 1: big moments. I thought last season he was the MVP

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Speaker 1: or played like an MVP pretty much the entire season.

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Speaker 1: So I think Dallas, to me, with the talent they have,

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Speaker 1: is still a potential Super Bowl roster if they can

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Speaker 1: get things the right direction.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Dallas is worth the top. I think

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Speaker 2: the tough one in Chicago and Jacksonville on the list.

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Speaker 2: I'm just not sure what to do with those. Depends

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Speaker 2: who you like better. All right, let's go to the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: So ranking the quarterbacks here, I don't really want to

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Speaker 2: spend much time. I'll let you go first. But my

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Speaker 2: list is purely off of gut. I did no research,

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Speaker 2: I looked nothing into this. I looked at the eight

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks and said to myself, who do I feel the

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Speaker 2: best about and more comfortable with? And my results are

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Speaker 2: very odd, But I'll let you go first.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so this ringing the eight guys left. I thought

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Speaker 1: this was a new thing for a one particular reason.

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Speaker 1: So Mahomes at the top. If you have any other

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Speaker 1: thing than that, get out of Mahomes at the top,

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Speaker 1: then Alan Lamar you can go whatever order. I personally,

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Speaker 1: and I know it's controversial, I'm gonna have Lamar third

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Speaker 1: and a tier below I have Mahomes Allan, then I

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Speaker 1: have Lamar Jane Daniels. That's its own tier. I think

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Speaker 1: Jane and It's had a pretty smilar season to Lamar,

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Speaker 1: and I personally would put them a lot closer than

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Speaker 1: most people would. Then I go Stafford Stroud, And if

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Speaker 1: I really had to pick at gunpoint, I probably would

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Speaker 1: go a Stroud over Stafford, but he's not at a

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Speaker 1: great year. Stafford's been really good in the playoffs. Especially

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Speaker 1: why I think this is interesting is because to me,

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Speaker 1: the clear bottom two for me, and I'm not really

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Speaker 1: positive which order, but it's Jared Goff and it's Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts and those are the one and two seeds in

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Speaker 1: the NFC against these kind of upstart teams, So not

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Speaker 1: to me is why I thought this question was interesting.

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Speaker 1: Because NFC versus AFC in the Super Bowl is either

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Speaker 1: going to be a quarterback that is the worst of

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Speaker 1: this group of eight or it is not those guys,

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Speaker 1: and the NFC path is open for the Rams or

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Speaker 1: the Commanders who get the better quarterback in their matchup

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Speaker 1: this weekend. And I think that makes us fascinating.

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Speaker 2: Brandon Brandon, Brandon, Brandon, my order and you were literally

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Speaker 2: going and I can't believe we did this. So on

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Speaker 2: top of the mountain, is past. There's no question Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: My Level two was Lamar and Allen. I don't want

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Speaker 2: to separate them. There's nothing about not trusting them because

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Speaker 2: I do trust them. I think their playoff resume and

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Speaker 2: their poor you know play is kind of a myth,

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Speaker 2: like I think they're great. The level three I actually

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Speaker 2: and I know his history in terms of outdoor games

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Speaker 2: and what he's gonna have to go through this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I still put Stafford there. He's won it, he's done it.

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Speaker 2: I believe he's nineteen and three in it's either November

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Speaker 2: or December or later. With the Rams, he has been

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Speaker 2: the man until he you know, blows this game for them.

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Speaker 2: I still think he deserves that uh tier. And it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be weird to say that because of how I

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Speaker 2: end this. But after Stafford is Jaden and Stroud same

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Speaker 2: level to me. They've both very young in their careers.

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Speaker 2: Stroud's won two playoff games. Jayden looks like he's won

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Speaker 2: two or three playoff games. By the way he's playing.

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Speaker 2: I think they're on the same level. I think Goff

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Speaker 2: is because I think he could make the game for Detroit,

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Speaker 2: but I also think they could move without him. I

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Speaker 2: also think he could throw it away, and it's the

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Speaker 2: fear I kind of have with him. Uh And I

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Speaker 2: just feel like in this situation with a high total,

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Speaker 2: I don't know why, I just the rookie to me

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Speaker 2: without anything to lose, and I know Goff had. These

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Speaker 2: next two guys, Goff and I've hurt and Hurts, I've

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Speaker 2: both been to the super Bowl, like they've both done this,

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Speaker 2: but those are the bottom too. I feel like they

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Speaker 2: both have the ability in my heart and soul to

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Speaker 2: throw it away while the other guys don't know better.

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Speaker 2: And maybe that's a dumb decision because the other two

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Speaker 2: have been to the super Bowl. But it's weird that, uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, I kind of let my soul let do

390
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Speaker 2: the writing here and that's kind of where it ended

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Speaker 2: up so on.

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Speaker 1: I mean, maybe it just is very simply that we

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Speaker 1: have seen Goth and Hurts lose at the highest level,

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Speaker 1: Daniel and Stroud do it, so they almost get the

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Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt in absence we're like, oh, we

396
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Speaker 1: can imagine them being really good, similar to Dak Prescott. Honestly,

397
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Speaker 1: I think we put Dak instinctively with your heart of

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Speaker 1: hearts would go into this bottom group, probably because like, ah, well,

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Speaker 1: dak Al's choking these playoff moments. Stafford is one of

400
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Speaker 1: these playoff moments, so yeah, he should get credit for that.

401
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Speaker 1: Is that's how this goes like, that's that's legacies, that's

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Speaker 1: rings culture. Like I'm not even pointing fingers. We only

403
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Speaker 1: have so much data. That's how we have to do

404
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Speaker 1: this thing. To me, this whole thing has stemmed from

405
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Speaker 1: watching the game, Like, look, I have Eagles futures. I'm

406
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Speaker 1: in on the Eagles. We know all that. I'll be

407
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Speaker 1: picking the Eagles again in a few minutes. Jalen Hurts

408
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Speaker 1: really scares me. I've really lost a lot of faith

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Speaker 1: in Jalen Hurts. I do my quarterback rankings going into

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Speaker 1: the season each year. I think two years ago, coming

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Speaker 1: out the Super Bowl, I talked myself into Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: I kept sliding him up. I'm pretty sure I had

413
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Speaker 1: him fourth in my quarterback rankings going into that season

414
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Speaker 1: of just the thirty two opening day starters. I posted

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Speaker 1: this on Twitter. I ask people to rank, where would

416
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Speaker 1: you put him? Is he like a top eight quarterback?

417
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Speaker 1: Is he in that next range? Is he league average

418
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Speaker 1: or worst? I don't think that you can make a

419
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Speaker 1: case personally that he's better than the league average group.

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Speaker 1: And I think he's below the average quarterback now. And

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Speaker 1: the running value as a runner itself, not scrambling, I

422
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 1: think is actually negative at this point. Design runs have

423
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: not gone well for him outside of the push push,

424
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Speaker 1: and I don't trust his arm. I don't trust the

425
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Speaker 1: way that he's navigating those decisions. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: become like quietly somewhat of a problem for Philadelphia and

427
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Speaker 1: why I really like the team on the roster. But

428
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Speaker 1: man put it differently, if I put not Jared Goff

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Speaker 1: since I had him the Hurts group, if I could

430
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 1: put any of these other quarterbacks on the Eagles, I

431
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 1: got the super Bowl favorite. Like I'm picking that team

432
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 1: to win right now because Jared hurts, Jalen Hurts. So

433
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 1: I don't know how I feel about them.

434
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: You really nailed it in terms of how I've seen

435
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 2: them be bad, and that's something I can't get out

436
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: of my head because all I ever think about is

437
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: that Hurts fumble in the Super Bowl, and those types

438
00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 2: of moments just stick at me. Okay, next category, playoff

439
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 2: stat leader bets. We're gonna do this and one more

440
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 2: before we get to Brandon's best bets, and we will

441
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,440
Speaker 2: go back and forth game to game. But these markets

442
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: are just so fascinating because, okay, you're a game in.

443
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 2: We had the conversation last week about the guys who

444
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 2: usually play three or four games end up kind of

445
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 2: leading these categories, but revisiting after one week to say, okay,

446
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: well maybe they didn't get as big of a lead

447
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 2: as we thought they did. Is just an interesting topic.

448
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 2: So you can go first first, we can go one

449
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: by one here, but any markets you want to attack,

450
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 2: just hit it.

451
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. So one that we mentioned last week, You and

452
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 1: I talked last week about the Chiefs and Lions guys

453
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 1: that you like. Maybe wait and see what happens on those.

454
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 1: So we mentioned last week Travis Kelcey receiving touchdowns that

455
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 1: one hasn't really budged. I still see a plus nine

456
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: to fifty. I love that one. We'll come back to

457
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey in touchdowns. I got some props on him later,

458
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 1: Am and Ra Saint Brown we talked about for receiving yards.

459
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: That one's on me. I said to wait, we thought

460
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: that they maybe the linement drop well, I think mostly

461
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: because I don't know if it's money came in on

462
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: him or it's just that there weren't really any great

463
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: other opposition receivers, but his price cut in half, So

464
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's value there anymore to me.

465
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 1: If you want to do these stat leader bets right now,

466
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 1: I think the intriguing way we saw Derrick Henry have

467
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 1: a huge game, I was on Henry with the props

468
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 1: last week. I'm in on Baltimore. I will be in

469
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 1: on Baltimore again. We already know this. If you're not

470
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: as in on Baltimore, I think a direct bet against

471
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry by betting on Bills runners is a really

472
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 1: interesting way to play stat leaders. So James Cook for

473
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 1: the Bills had a big game last week, ten to

474
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 1: one for most rushing yards. If the Bills win, probably

475
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 1: Cook has a good game. And more importantly, Derrick Henry's

476
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 1: out and isn't gonna win the category anymore because he's

477
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: gonna not get more games to go forward. So you've

478
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: knocked out the minus odds favorite, and you've got Jared sorry,

479
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 1: James Cooke looking at much better number. I like even better.

480
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,479
Speaker 1: Josh Allen most rushing touchdowns. That one's twenty to one.

481
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts fifteen to one. I like that one too.

482
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 1: It's not as direct to bet Josh Allen rushing touchdowns.

483
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: If he gets a couple of touchdowns, they probably are

484
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: gonna win the game. And Derek Henry's out with his

485
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, and now you've knocked out the favorite and

486
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: advanced to your guy. I'm on Ravens, but I think

487
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 1: if you want to maybe hedge a little bit against that,

488
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: or if you like the Bills, I think that's a

489
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 1: smart way to bet these where you're saying, Okay, how

490
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 1: can I knock out somebody with the pick that is

491
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: advancing for me and kind of add to my edge.

492
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 1: What names stuck out to you here?

493
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think trying to figure out who you like

494
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 2: in the game and then cross referencing it with each

495
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 2: of these different categories is a little bit of a

496
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: puzzle to try to figure out. But one category I

497
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 2: do think is interesting. So just talking about Travis Kelcey,

498
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 2: so we were on receiving yards. I nibbled on it

499
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: last week. It was twenty six to one. Well now

500
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 2: it's fourteen to one, and without even playing yet. And

501
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: even though the receiving category, you know your leader right

502
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 2: now is Nico because lads out at one ninety seven.

503
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: So Nico is one twenty two, and he's the favorite

504
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 2: in that market. And I mean, Houston's probably done in

505
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 2: this round. And we're going to talk about Houston again

506
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 2: in a second because I like another one of their players,

507
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: but I'm not necessarily sure he probably should be the

508
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: favorite unless you like Houston to win the game. So

509
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 2: I do think a Chief or a Lion or a

510
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 2: raven or a bill, depending on who you like that game,

511
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 2: has an easy chance to overtake Nico. So I do

512
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: think there's an opportunity in receiving yards. That's why I

513
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: still kind of like Washington. So I was looking at McLaurin.

514
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,239
Speaker 2: McLaurin has eighty nine receiving yards. He's only a you know,

515
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 2: thirty back of Nico, and I believe he's fifteen to

516
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 2: one to lead receiving yards. So that was one that

517
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: I looked at. But we talked about this last week.

518
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 2: Touchdowns way more volatile. I think I do want to

519
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: attack the touchdown markets more so, I one hundred percent

520
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 2: agreed with you on Cook. He was seven to one

521
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 2: in touchdowns and hurts twelve to one. Both I think

522
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: are good bets based on who you like in this

523
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 2: round receiving touchdowns, I wrote down Kelsey, so that was

524
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: one that I feel like has to be touched at

525
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: the moment. My only fear with the Kelsey bets that

526
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: have hit in previous years. Again I said this last week,

527
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 2: they just have way more targets than they have and

528
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 2: someone like Noah Gray, who's more in the mix now

529
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: than he has been, I think, is going to vulture

530
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: away and probably take one or two that would have

531
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 2: gone to Kelsey in a younger, more dominant season that

532
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: they needed him and they just don't need that now.

533
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 2: One other bet I'll give you then we can kind

534
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 2: of toss it back to you. I bet Joe Mixon

535
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,199
Speaker 2: at eighty five to one at rushing yards. Yes, I

536
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 2: understand the whole deal in terms of them potentially losing

537
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: to Kansas City, but right now he's behind Henry and

538
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: Cook and Barkley, So yeah, understood, You're gonna get probably

539
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 2: two of those guys to advance, but Mixing right now

540
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 2: is only seventy yards back of Henry, and if they

541
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 2: beat Kansas City. He was eighty five to one entering

542
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 2: this game fifty five to one last week, and the

543
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: other one is Lamar one hundred and twenty five to

544
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: one in terms of yards. If they advance and he

545
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 2: continues to kind of run the load there, I think

546
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: it's an interesting ticket to hold.

547
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. The only thing I would add is, I think

548
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: if you really like the Commanders or the Rams this weekend,

549
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 1: the NFC has a much easier path of defenses for

550
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: guys to wrack up big stats, like look the Detroit

551
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: game as a what a fifty five and a half

552
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: total this week. Yeah, So if you are like, let's

553
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 1: say that you like the Rams, I'm not on the

554
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: Rams this week. I got mygels jersey on. But if

555
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: you're in on the Rams and you like Stafford, maybe

556
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: you like Puka Nakula for receiving yards, that'd make a

557
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: lot of sense. Presumably Pook would have to have a

558
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: pretty good game this week for them to win, and

559
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: then you know, next week you're gonna play their Detroit

560
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: or Washington, which is going to be a really good

561
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: matchup for you. The AFC has four pretty good defenses,

562
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 1: depending what you think of Buffalo the NFC, other than Philly,

563
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: has three pretty not great defenses. So I think if

564
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 1: there's a sleep where you like there or value you like,

565
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: I think NFC does give a little bit more path,

566
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: especially for probably yardage on those or touchdowns too, just

567
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 1: because maybe we get more points on that side of

568
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: the ball.

569
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: I think you're probably right. Those categories are just a

570
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 2: lot of fun to try to have some projection going

571
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: forward versus like, I know there's markets out there for

572
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 2: like Super Bowl anytime touchdown, but those are action like

573
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 2: these are, you know, just a bit of a different situation.

574
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: You're kind of betting game to game, while those is

575
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 2: like I'm just hoping they get there and then you

576
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 2: get a better price. So I think these are a

577
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 2: little bit more fun. All right, next category here hypothetical

578
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 2: conference championship matchups, and then we're going to get to

579
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: Brandon's best bets. So there's just markets out right now

580
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: for all the conference championship games. I'll remind what we

581
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: did last week. At least on my end, I liked

582
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: Baltimore Buffalo under fifty two and a half. It sits

583
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: at fifty one and a half now, so sure I'll

584
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: take a point but kind of still like the situation.

585
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: And I liked Detroit rams under fifty three and a half.

586
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: The game just never came to fruition anything on your end,

587
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 2: and then I can give you two angles and I

588
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 2: think are kind of good.

589
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: Yeah. I last week I gave out Philly against whoever

590
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: was there playing. I liked them against all three opponents.

591
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 1: And I'm on Philly again for next week if they

592
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: play Washington. There is a Philly minus six and a

593
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: half against Washington. It's at minus one oh two right

594
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: now also, so you might even get it down to

595
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 1: a six. I make that one about eight and a half,

596
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: and that's a key as a couple of numbers. And

597
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: it's also the flip side of the touchdown where I

598
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: think that we end up getting there. Now, it's a

599
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: little tricky because the only a Philly can play a

600
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: Washington is Washington just beat Detroit, and thus the market

601
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: value for Washington has to go up, but the market

602
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: value for Philly goes up if they win as well.

603
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: These team just played December twenty second, so what like

604
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: three weeks ago, four weeks ago, Philly was in Washington

605
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: minus four, so they're minus four in Washington how is

606
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: it minus six and a half in Philly in the

607
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: conference championship with a rookie quarterback on the road. I

608
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: know we like Jane Daniels, but only at two and

609
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: a half point line twin doesn't make sense to me.

610
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 1: Two games they play this year, Eagles had four and

611
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: thirty nine rushing yards. I'm gonna like that for Philly,

612
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: even though Washington did win that game. Recently, they were

613
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: down twenty seven to fourteen into the fourth quarter and

614
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 1: then they just got like one really good quarter there,

615
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: which I think actually Philly would maybe be alone prepared

616
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: for because of it. So that's the one that stuck out.

617
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: The only other one that I think if you want

618
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: to have a decision on, And already we assume the

619
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: AFC Championship is Chiefs somebody, Chiefs Pills or Chiefs Ravens

620
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: right now, most books have those priced evenly, Chiefs minus

621
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: one and a half against either one of those. Now

622
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: the juice is so slightly off, but that doesn't make

623
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: any sense to me. The Bills are playing the Ravens

624
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: right now, and the Ravens are favored on the road

625
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: in Buffalo, so we clearly are not rating these teams equal.

626
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: One of those lines has to be wrong. Either the

627
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: Ravens should be favored against the Chiefs, which good luck

628
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: because you're gonna get a lot of money on underdog

629
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes at home, or the Bills line is wrong.

630
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: I personally, I can't believe this. I'm makes Chiefs minus

631
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: five against the Bills. I have Buffalo well below Baltimore.

632
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: The Bills were minus one and a half against the

633
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: Chiefs in Buffalo in November, so minus one and a

634
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: half Chiefs here. I don't know. I think you're to

635
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: make a decision if you want to go ahead on

636
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: those two. But also they're both so close to a

637
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: pick them, I'm not necessarily sure how much value're getting.

638
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: Like if I actually thought the Chiefs might get to

639
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: minus five or minus four against the Bills, then I

640
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: should be grabbing this because that's huge value across the key.

641
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: We're not getting that, Like they're not gonna put it

642
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: above a field goal Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. So

643
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if I need to rush into that one,

644
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,959
Speaker 1: but at least caunt my attention knowing which way I'm

645
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: probably leaning early on as a better So those are

646
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: the two that cut my Eagles minus six and a

647
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: half as one I'll actually beat.

648
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're on the same side, and then we're not,

649
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,719
Speaker 2: which is interesting. So I'll start with Washington and Philly.

650
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: I just like Washington in the game. And I was

651
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: actually gonna say I'm nibbling on the six and a half,

652
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: just small, because I do think that, you know, if

653
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 2: Washington up sets Detroit and then Philly does whatever they

654
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: do to the Rams, like even if they demolish the Rams,

655
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: the Washington over Detroit upset should keep that line in

656
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: check and people will be salivating to bet Jaden. So

657
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 2: I think it's kind of interesting, Like I would probably

658
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 2: make that line about six and a half or seven.

659
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 2: I don't think it's much more. If Washington wins the game,

660
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: which you know they need to in this spot, I

661
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: just have to think you upgrade them a tiny bit.

662
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: So I'm a little wishy washy on that one. And

663
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: I like the Baltimore line in case and the case

664
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: C line against Buffalo, So I like Baltimore this weekend.

665
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: If Buffalo somehow wins the game, I think the minus

666
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: one eighteen on Kansas City's money line next week is

667
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 2: a good bet and then the other way around. I'm

668
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: not necessarily sure if Baltimore gets through Buffalo they should

669
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 2: be underdogs, now do I like? Looks like right now

670
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: it's minus one twenty two on plus one and a

671
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: half and minus one oh six on the money line,

672
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 2: so you're really not getting anything on either side. So

673
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: I think the case over Buffalo bet is a better

674
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: one at the moment, while you kind of have to

675
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 2: just wait and see. I just don't have much of

676
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 2: an appetite to lay one twenty two on that Baltimore line,

677
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 2: even though I do like the one and a half.

678
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was exact same analysis I would like. I

679
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: would like the Baltimore side, but yeah, plus one twenty

680
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: two to me as books just being like, let's see

681
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: what people do with us. Let's let's see we think

682
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: this is going to move forward Baltimore, but we don't

683
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: really want to give the farm away here. Let's see

684
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 1: exactly how much people are willing to bet on Baltimore. Oh,

685
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: they're still betting it even minus one twenty two. I

686
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 1: think that's maybe what's happening, and then maybe that moves,

687
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: But I don't need it that early because minus one

688
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: and a half minus one plus one one and a half.

689
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 1: I don't feel like I lost much value there, even

690
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: if I miss out on one of them.

691
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 2: I wonder if these markets are I haven't even checked

692
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: if they're open live, because if they're open live and

693
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: Lamar throws a first f I'm gonna got the Ravens

694
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 2: live anyway. But I wonder if these adjust it all

695
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: based off of play. All right, it's time to get

696
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 2: into some divisional best bets.

697
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: This is your best bet.

698
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: If you want to tail some of these best bets,

699
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: we have them in quick slip links in the podcast

700
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 2: and video description for you. Just click those and a

701
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: bet slip will open in your sportsbook app so you

702
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: can tail easy. Is that Just check the description. They

703
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: will all be there and we will go one by

704
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: one right now, from game to game. So Brandon, we're

705
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 2: going to start with Houston and Kansas City. Now, I'm

706
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 2: just going to toss to you initially for your bet here,

707
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 2: and we can kind of go back and forth on

708
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 2: some of your analysis. You've got props, I've got some

709
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: notes and stats. So you start first, Casey Houston.

710
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: So I knew from the moment that Houston one the

711
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: opening playoff game. I knew it. I knew I would

712
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: have to be on Houston this week after dumping on

713
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: them all. I knew that I'd be begging myself to

714
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: try to take the Texans here to me this game

715
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: right off the bad This is the trend spot of

716
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: the week. So I'm gonna start with the trends. In

717
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: the wild card round, you bet on the big home favorite.

718
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 1: We did that last week. We got the Buffalo Escalator,

719
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: we got the Rams Escalator. We should have had the

720
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore Escually, I don't know what happened with that. In

721
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: the division round, you fade the home favorites home favorites

722
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 1: Division round thirty four forty six and the one ats

723
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: forty two percent covering the spread. Division round favorites that

724
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 1: are seventy five percent win rate or better, so let's

725
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: say thirteen and four record or better, eighteen and thirty

726
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 1: two against the spread thirty six percent cover rates getting

727
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 1: the worse. The better you were in the season, the

728
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: worse the trend is for you home one seed after

729
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: the bye week in the division round fifteen twenty seven

730
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 1: and one against the spread thirty six percent cover rate.

731
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: If the underdog is a dog of ten or less

732
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: seventy one percent cover rate for the underdog in those,

733
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: they've won eleven of the last thirty two. Outright, that's

734
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: against the one seed. That's the team that we knew

735
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: all year long was the best team allowing a thirty

736
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: two outright, I'll do the math for you. Sixteen is

737
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 1: half they shouldn't be winning, like somewhat close to half

738
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: of those games against the rested juggernaut one seed. In addition,

739
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: some chief specific trends because they lost that Week eighteen game,

740
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: which I know they didn't try, it shouldn't matter. But

741
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 1: here's some trends. Home division round team on a one

742
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 1: game losing streak. Now, let me help you with that.

743
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: You can't be on a one game losing streak unless

744
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: you just had a buy because you had to win

745
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 1: last week otherwise. So the only way you can do

746
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: that is if you're one of the bye teams that

747
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: lost a quote meaningless game in Week eighteen. Turns out

748
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 1: not so meaningless. Those teams are four and sixteen ats

749
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: twenty percent cover rate That fits the Chiefs here. Underdogs

750
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: those nine or less than those games are a perfect

751
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: thirteen to zero in that spot. Seven out of the

752
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: thirteen to one outright. That's more than one outright against

753
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: a team that had a week off and maybe a

754
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 1: second week off, and maybe that's the rust factor coming in.

755
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 1: Here's another one playoff teams off a three score loss,

756
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 1: seventeen points or more. Again, it's either got to be

757
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: the opening round or it's got to be a bye

758
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: week team because you had to win otherwise. The Chiefs

759
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 1: lost by more than seventeen. I know, I bet on

760
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: them in that game. The Chiefs here are six and

761
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,919
Speaker 1: twenty ats teams off a three score loss, twenty three

762
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: percent cover rate. It's a brash of really bad trends

763
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: warning you about the Chiefs. Here. Here's what all the

764
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 1: trends say. Books and betters get way too overconfident in

765
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: those rested one seeds. We saw them dominate all year.

766
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: We add in some tax on the one seeds, and

767
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: I think it's especially bad per the trends if the

768
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 1: team is rusty in coming off and not a great

769
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: last game. So to the matchup stuff, I do think

770
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: there's reason for the Chiefs to be a little bit

771
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,919
Speaker 1: learer about some of the matchup stuff. We talked about

772
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 1: this with the hot red Houston two big matchup advantages

773
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: that they can exploit here. Kansas City's tackles offensive line

774
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: have been a problem all year long. Houston's best thing

775
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: on the team is their edge rushers, so I think

776
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,839
Speaker 1: that that sets up well for a possible matchup where

777
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: Mahomes again a pressured all game. When the Chiefs lose

778
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: or perform poorly in the playoffs, it's almost always something

779
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 1: to do with Mahomes getting a pressured all game. The

780
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: other edge is Nico Collins, the only good receiver left

781
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 1: for Houston, but Kansas City is bottom ten against wide

782
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 1: receero one by DVA on the season, so that's the

783
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: best stuff about Houston. I think it just happens to

784
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: match up well with the Chiefs in this spot. Both defenses,

785
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 1: I think have the advantage here. That makes eight and

786
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 1: a half points even more valuable. I would lean under

787
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: on this game, so I think it kind of tilts

788
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 1: that direction. The Chiefs have played a top thirteen defense

789
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: DVA nine games this season. They scored twenty one or

790
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: less over half of those games. Games. They haven't scored

791
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: thirty one all season, so I think the Chiefs get

792
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: to like twenty twenty one points. I think Houston probably

793
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: only gets like fourteen seventeen twenty points, but you can

794
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: do the math. That's enough to cover one other little thing.

795
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: The Chiefs got their rest game right, well, don't forget

796
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: the Texans had a rest week. Also, they didn't really

797
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,399
Speaker 1: play in Week eighteen either, so I think that sort

798
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: of mutes the whole arrest advantage. I'm not going to

799
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,919
Speaker 1: be playing the Chiefs all right, sorry, I'm not gonna

800
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: be playing a Texans money line here. The trends want

801
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: me to. The trends say the Texans are alive. They

802
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: gave you some of the numbers for it. I think

803
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: the game will be one on third downs advantage Mahomes advantage,

804
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: Chiefs defense. I'm a little leary about some of the

805
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 1: Houston injuries the offensive line, as z al Shaer is

806
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 1: not practiced this week. That makes me a little scared.

807
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: Texans plus eight and a half. That's the pick here.

808
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 1: But then a couple other correlated bets because this is

809
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: what we've seen all season. What do the Chiefs do?

810
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: They win close games. They're eleven to zero in one

811
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: score game. So give me the Texans eight and a

812
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: half with the Chiefs money line together. That's plus two

813
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: oh nine. That bet is basically, the Texans keep it

814
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 1: within one score, the Chiefs win a one score game.

815
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: That bet this year, when the Chiefs are at least

816
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,920
Speaker 1: seven point favorite is six and zero and we're getting

817
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: a plus two nine and just a little narrative sprinkle.

818
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 1: I like Chiefs to win by field goal or less,

819
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: so you basically go Houston plus three and a half

820
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: Chiefs money line. Put it together six to one. The

821
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 1: Chiefs did that five times this year, won by three

822
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: or less, and four of their last six playoff wins

823
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 1: have been by three or less. That's the Chiefs magic,

824
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: that's what they do. I think this game gets interesting.

825
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: I think Houston's confident after their last game. They kept

826
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: it close all the way along. I like the Texans

827
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: to keep it close.

828
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 2: I'm coining a new bet and I'm making a name

829
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,479
Speaker 2: for it, and I don't necessarily think it's going to stick,

830
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: but I'm calling it the accordion. And what you're doing

831
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: is and I kind of want to do it across

832
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 2: numbers is I won Houston at like six and a

833
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 2: half and seven and a half and four and a

834
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 2: half as well, and put it with Casey's money line.

835
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 2: I'm calling it the accordion. It's stupid, but you know,

836
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 2: kind of getting both sides and taking like the dungeon

837
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: or taking the basement run on it and taking all

838
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 2: those key numbers. I think it'll be a fun one

839
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,919
Speaker 2: because my gut is that Casey's not going to blow

840
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: them out. And you know, even at like seventeen or

841
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 2: twenty and Casey's kind of running their gamut here, I

842
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 2: think Houston will have an opportunity to get some touchdowns.

843
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 2: So getting back into that game, into those zones that

844
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,240
Speaker 2: we would be betting, I think is a fun one.

845
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 2: The one trend I'll give you before we move to

846
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 2: your next one here. So the total is forty one

847
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 2: and a half at the moment in this game, and

848
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 2: of Mahomes's eighteen career playoff games, this would be his

849
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 2: lowest total. His previous lowest forty three and a half

850
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 2: against the Dolphins last year. His sixty nine career home starts,

851
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,959
Speaker 2: He's only closed below forty one and a half once

852
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: and I was forty and a half in the Raiders

853
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 2: game last year on Christmas that he lost. So interesting

854
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: situation there, I'll toss to you for your prop and

855
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 2: then I have something to back you up there. So

856
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 2: give us your prop and then we can go from there.

857
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: All right, So I got props on two Chiefs players,

858
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: so we'll start with Xavier Worthy, the Rokie receiver. I

859
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 1: want a receptions escalator and Xavier Worthy. So if you

860
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 1: look at his splits first twelve weeks compared to week

861
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 1: thirteen forward since then, it's very clear to me they're

862
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 1: just using him completely differently. His target share jump from

863
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: fourteen percent to twenty one percent. His targets per route

864
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 1: jumped almost fifty percent as well. They're changing how they're

865
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,399
Speaker 1: using him as a dot basically cut in half. It's

866
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: only down to like six yards, so rather than go

867
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,479
Speaker 1: deep your Tyreek kill, we're chucking at fifty yards. That's

868
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: what he was now. I think they're using him more

869
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 1: like the user Rashi Rice way back in those first

870
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 1: few games. They're building the thing out of Xavier Worthy.

871
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: They're trusting him in these underneath routes. Let's get you

872
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: the ball close and let you do your thing from there.

873
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: Let's give you a punt return. Basically, his catch raid

874
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: has gone a way up in last three games. He's

875
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: playing most snaps of the season over eighty percent. Every

876
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: game he's averaging more than ten targets a game six

877
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 1: catches sorry, seven catches for sixty three yards six seven

878
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: and eight catches in those games. So the Texans top

879
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 1: ten most fantasy points to receivers, number two most touchdowns

880
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: plus two to twenty. If you want the touchdown, I

881
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 1: don't mind it. I want receptions, not yards, because he

882
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: got the low a dot. Now we can always bust

883
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 1: a long one, but I want the catches escalator, So

884
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: over four and a half catches is the baseline minus

885
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: one thirty six. I think that's worth the play, given

886
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: that he is averaging seven catches a game this last stretch.

887
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: And then here's the escalator. You can get this whole

888
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 1: thing in the quick slip check the notes for it.

889
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: It'll load all these for you. Six catches plus one,

890
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: fifty seven catches plus two to eighty eight catches plus

891
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: five twenty five a little bit less all the way

892
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: up there. And if you do want the yards, a

893
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: little trick here. He's also running the ball more this

894
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 1: three game stretch with all the targets. He's also ran

895
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 1: eight times in that stretch for fifty yards. So if

896
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: you can play rushing and receiving yards together, which some

897
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 1: books will offer you, I like seventy five plus rushing

898
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: and receiving. That's plus one nineties hit that three in

899
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: a row. You get a little boost from the running

900
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,399
Speaker 1: game and maybe just get along one somewhere in there.

901
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 1: So I think the rookie is to become really the

902
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: go to guy in this offense. We'll see if it

903
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: holds up. Maybe it's just my next guy, Travis Kelcey,

904
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: but I don't mind playing both these guys together. What

905
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: do you think about Xavier Worthy?

906
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 2: I love Worthy and the stat that I looked up

907
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 2: which is attached to him is since week ten, the

908
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 2: trivia was which chief has the most first read slash

909
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:35,240
Speaker 2: design targets from mahomes. The answer is Worthy, not Kelsey,

910
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,919
Speaker 2: so Worthy as forty four, Kelsey forty three, Hopkins thirty eight,

911
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: and then Noah Gray at nineteen fourth on the list.

912
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: So I think Gray is really sneaky, but I think

913
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 2: Worthy like is the man. Now I think Kelsey. Come

914
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 2: playoff time, everyone's going to assume a boost. Everyone's going

915
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 2: to assume people are They're going to look, you know,

916
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,399
Speaker 2: look to him more and more and more in these

917
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 2: tight knit situationations. But Worthy is by far their most

918
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 2: explosive player. And if they trail, which you and I

919
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 2: have talked about Houston and maybe sneakily kind of liking

920
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 2: them to me, it makes Worthy even more explosive in

921
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 2: this game because they're going to need him to do

922
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,919
Speaker 2: things versus them trailing and maybe just trying to burn

923
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 2: some clocks. So I'm all about it. Talk to me

924
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 2: about Kelsey.

925
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think too, the trailing idea, or even a

926
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 1: close game you get like a two minute drive, you

927
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 1: get some short passes. Xavier Worthy and Kelsey are going

928
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 1: to be the short pass jump off sort of guys.

929
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 1: So I'm going to play both guys here because I

930
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 1: think Xavier Worthy is the volume guy. I think Travis

931
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 1: Kelcey is the red zone guy. So I'm playing what

932
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,760
Speaker 1: I'm calling the Travis Kelcey Legacy Escalator. Here's this guy's

933
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 1: stats the last four playoffs, thirteen games, which is crazy

934
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: enough as it is. In thirteen games, he has one

935
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen catches, twelve hundred and seventy one yards,

936
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: and thirteen touchdowns. He's averaging a touchdown a game. He

937
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 1: scored in ten of the thirteen games. He has at

938
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 1: least seventy one yards all thirteen games in that playoff stretch.

939
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: And with Mahomes now played eighteen playoff games, he's eighteen

940
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: touchdowns at least one in thirteen of those games. So

941
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 1: I look at the stats from the season, the game

942
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: by game log, throw it out because I learned the

943
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 1: hard way last year. Throw out last year's stats too.

944
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: His stats from this year almost identical the last year.

945
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 1: Then we got to the playoffs, they took off the

946
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 1: kid gloves and we're like, okay, we saved you all

947
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: year for this, go do your thing, And he instantly

948
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 1: was a different player by the way off three weeks.

949
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 1: The rest probably doesn't hurt either. So I'm on the touchdowns.

950
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 1: You can get the touchdown for Travis kelcey plus one sixty.

951
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: That is insulting to what he has done in his

952
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: playoff legacy, playoff history for him. Should make that more

953
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: like minus two to fifty. So I know it's somewhere

954
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: in between because he is getting a little older and

955
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: he hasn't been the same this year. But plus one

956
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 1: sixty for the touchdown, and then this is the Jill

957
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 1: Golant special. He tipped me off to this. I'm I

958
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,879
Speaker 1: was watching it. First Chiefs touchdown plus four to seventy five.

959
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,800
Speaker 1: You can get this one with a quick slip. The Chiefs.

960
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, the playoffs just go to Travis Kelcey

961
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 1: raut the gates. He scored the first Chiefs touchdown five

962
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: of seven playoff games the last two years. He's always

963
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: the guy like this is how we know that Saturday

964
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: football love started. Is Mahomes throwing it to Kelsey touchdown? Okay, good?

965
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: The playoffs have begun divisional round us here. He's had

966
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: the first touchdown in three of those games. If you

967
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,320
Speaker 1: just want the whole thing, I like this one better.

968
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 1: First Chiefs touchdown in a win is plus eight to fifty.

969
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 1: So I like the Chiefs to win anyway. I like

970
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: the first Chiefs touchdown. That's a crazy number to me

971
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: for what I think ends up becoming like hopefully gets

972
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: the first one and then you just have a Chiefs

973
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 1: money line with probably an early lead plus eight to fifty.

974
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: So I like that one. You mentioned the receiving touchdowns already,

975
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: just for the entire playoffs. The leader on that one

976
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty he's four touchdowns away right now

977
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 1: from passing Jerry Rice for the postseason record. You can

978
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 1: bet that four touchdowns are more at twenty to one.

979
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,879
Speaker 1: And I don't know about the yards. His yards line

980
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: is fifty one and a half. Again, he's seventy one

981
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 1: yards in thirteen straight playoff games. That's an insulting line.

982
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: But I'm not positive the yards will be there. He's

983
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: averaging ninety eight yards a game the last four playoffs.

984
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you hit that one. There is

985
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 1: a book offering right now most receiving yards by a

986
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 1: tight end in the playoffs, Travis Kelcey is plus three

987
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 1: to fifty. I don't care who anybody else is. We're

988
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: probably getting two, maybe three games from Travis Kelcey, and

989
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the legacy. So give me the Kelsey

990
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: legacy escalator, get the touchdown, get the first Chiefs touchdown,

991
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: get the most receiving yards tight ends, play the whole thing.

992
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: Maybe he's just cooked at this point. Maybe he's going

993
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 1: off making music with Taylor Swift and that's the whole thing.

994
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: He shows up every playoff game, and I'm willing to

995
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 1: lose money betting that he keeps doing it.

996
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: The sneaky thing about that tight end market is obviously

997
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: noahgree is there, But a lot of these other teams

998
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 2: have two tight ends that tend to take away from

999
00:47:56,400 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: each other, likely and Andrews, Knox and Kink. So you know,

1000
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 2: maybe there is something there where. If Kelsey is Kelsey,

1001
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 2: there might be a ton of a tiny bit of value.

1002
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,800
Speaker 2: The stat that I had, which just kind of tells

1003
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 2: to what he's been is is five plus receptions and

1004
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 2: fourteen straight playoff games. That's absolute insane, longest streak by

1005
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 2: any player since the merger. But five plus receptions, so

1006
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,720
Speaker 2: you know, at five receptions and what'd you say, fifty

1007
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 2: seven yards, that's still a little difficult depending on the

1008
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 2: depth of the targets. So I can definitely see him

1009
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 2: one or two touchdowns, a bunch of receptions, and maybe

1010
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 2: under that yardage. So let's move on to the next

1011
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 2: game here, Washington and the Lions Detroit, so you can

1012
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 2: break down the game and then we can kind of

1013
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 2: go one by one there. So start with the game.

1014
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: So similar trends to the other one. All of the

1015
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: same trends pretty much apply here. I gotta be on

1016
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 1: the commander. So I'm on Commanders plus nine and a half.

1017
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 1: And what I want to know is, are we sure

1018
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 1: we think what we think about these teams, because on

1019
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: the season long numbers, what we think is both offenses

1020
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,839
Speaker 1: are really good. Detroit's is a little better. And what

1021
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: we think by DVOA is Detroit is the top five defense,

1022
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: Washington bottom ten. That's the big mismatch. Trust the defense

1023
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: that's been a little better. They're getting a little healthier.

1024
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: We think that's how the skill is put last six

1025
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,800
Speaker 1: games down the season, Detroit was the bottom five defense,

1026
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 1: including number thirty pass defense before the Minnesota game. For

1027
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: three games, Washington was up to tenth by DVA defense,

1028
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: and I don't know if I trust that. However, they

1029
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: just played the Bucks, who were top seven offense. They

1030
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: held them at twenty points. That was I think maybe

1031
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: their best defensive game of the season against a really

1032
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 1: good opponent. Detroit defense has played a top ten offense

1033
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:46,240
Speaker 1: six times, and over the final six weeks they allowed

1034
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 1: thirty one in one of those games, allowed thirty four,

1035
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: and they allowed forty eight points. They allowed almost twenty

1036
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 1: eight points a game against top ten offenses, which Washington is.

1037
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: So we got a high total here, fifty five and

1038
00:49:56,320 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: a half, crazy number, clear shootout potential. I think I

1039
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 1: want the better quarterback. I think I want the quarterback

1040
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,479
Speaker 1: that trust in this matchup, like we talked up there

1041
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: at the top of the show. And I think too,

1042
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 1: both these teams are aggressive on fourth downs. I think

1043
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,439
Speaker 1: this game ultimately comes down to maybe three to five

1044
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: fourth down plays. That's screams volatile to me. That screams

1045
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 1: danger for Detroit. You don't want Washington and Jane Daniels

1046
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 1: on the field against the defense that's a little banged

1047
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: up and missing guys. You don't want the game to

1048
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 1: come down to two three fourth downs or a two

1049
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: point conversion. That's not what you want as the one seed.

1050
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 1: So some of the trends here similar to before, fade

1051
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,720
Speaker 1: the division home favorites fifty eight percent against the spread,

1052
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,320
Speaker 1: fade the one seed after the buy sixty four percent

1053
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:42,720
Speaker 1: against the spread. One unique for this one here, division round.

1054
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: If you're on the road and you miss last year's playoffs,

1055
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: so you're proven. Now you've won a game even though

1056
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,240
Speaker 1: you're on the road. Now you're twenty eight and fourteen

1057
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 1: against the spread. That's sixty seven percent for the Commanders here,

1058
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 1: so I think the number is just too high. Detroit

1059
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: six and two in playoff opponents this year, but six

1060
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 1: of those eight games were close. They only won twice

1061
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 1: by seven or more points. Washington has not lost been

1062
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 1: more than eight since the season opener. Since Jayden Daniel's

1063
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: rookie debut in the NFL, They've played thirteen out of

1064
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 1: their eighteen games within eight points, including four of their

1065
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 1: five losses, everything except just that opener. So Commanders plus

1066
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 1: nine and a half to keep it within one score.

1067
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna keep going because I think that they're

1068
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 1: alive to win, and I am playing them to win

1069
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,240
Speaker 1: in this case. Those same trends that I just mentioned,

1070
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 1: every one of those trends says to also play the

1071
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 1: money line. Every one of them is anywhere from like

1072
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 1: a fifteen to thirty five percent ROI, including Division round

1073
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: underdogs of seven to eleven points, twelve and twenty five

1074
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 1: straight up better than one in three forty three percent

1075
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 1: ROI on those teams. Now, look, that fits Houston too,

1076
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: and I'll go the other way. You have this trend

1077
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:52,800
Speaker 1: in your article. Underdog winners from the wild card round

1078
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 1: do not win in this round history is very bad

1079
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,800
Speaker 1: to them since twenty twelve, I think one in twenty

1080
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 1: straight up. So they probably don't win. They probably keep

1081
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 1: it close. But again, if we're going to a high

1082
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 1: scoring game, if I have the better quarterback that I

1083
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: like better than Jane Daniels, and if there's this fourth

1084
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: down volatility, and can they have that magical touch to

1085
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:15,919
Speaker 1: get over the line, I want Washington with a magical touch.

1086
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 1: They have seven wins this season in the final ten seconds,

1087
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 1: including five straight games right now to stop the Saints

1088
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 1: on a two point conversion with Zeros on the clock.

1089
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: They score a touchdown against Philly six seconds left, touchdown

1090
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 1: against Atlanta in overtime, walkoff touchdown against the Cowboys three

1091
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 1: seconds left, and now we got the DC doink last week,

1092
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 1: the walkoff field goal winner. I think this is a

1093
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: team of destiny. Pick. I'm not gonna play the money

1094
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 1: line plus four to ten because I think Washington win

1095
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 1: by much. Washington by one to six points, six hundred

1096
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 1: six to one odds, that's my pick. I think the

1097
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: Commanders can actually pull this thing off.

1098
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is you say magic and you say destiny,

1099
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 2: and I'm like, is he talking about the Lions, and

1100
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 2: then you yourself, No, he's talking about Washington. I mean,

1101
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,760
Speaker 2: both these teams feel like we've called magic and destiny

1102
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:08,359
Speaker 2: over and over again, and it's just fascinating that they

1103
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 2: have to play each other. One stat I'll give you

1104
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 2: before I just give you a concept playoff underdogs of

1105
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 2: seven and a half for more thirty two and twenty

1106
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 2: nine ats last twenty years, we get it. The thing

1107
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 2: I thought was interesting, if the dog scores seventeen or more,

1108
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 2: they're twenty six and thirteen ats sixty seven percent. If

1109
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 2: that dog scores twenty one or more, eighteen and eight

1110
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 2: sixty nine percent, just really a question of Washington's averaging

1111
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 2: twenty eight points per game. Washington tends to put up

1112
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 2: a bunch of points in these games. How many points

1113
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 2: do you think Washington can get in this one? Because yeah,

1114
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 2: Detroit could win forty nine twenty nine or something like that.

1115
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 2: But I think if you get to twenty four twenty eight,

1116
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 2: you're gonna hope Washington gets the cover, and the data

1117
00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 2: kind of says you probably will. The other one i'll

1118
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 2: toss here, which I just thought was interesting before you

1119
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 2: get into your prop. When I started looking up this

1120
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 2: Washington Detroit game. Just beginning of the week, I asked myself,

1121
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 2: has a running quarterback ever won a Super Bowl? And

1122
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 2: I believe the most rushing attempts from a regular season

1123
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 2: from a QB to win it was Russ with ninety

1124
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: six in twenty thirteen. Since we've had like Cam and

1125
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:18,399
Speaker 2: Hurts and even Russ again, they've lost in the Super

1126
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 2: Bowl with one hundred plus, So this year hurts Jaden,

1127
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 2: Lamar and Josh all one hundred plus. Now, obviously that

1128
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 2: leaves Goff and a few others in terms of like

1129
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 2: who could not make them win. But we've seen forty

1130
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 2: nine quarterbacks one hundred plus rush attempts, three made the

1131
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:37,720
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, none have won it. So we're really trying

1132
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 2: to say to ourselves, like we're looking into something different here.

1133
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 2: I like, Washington, I'm with you, but this is also

1134
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: something that you know, we just haven't seen, Like Jayden

1135
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:51,240
Speaker 2: could lead all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns by the time

1136
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 2: this is over if he gets there, or he can

1137
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 2: lead them in rushing. And I know we can say

1138
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:58,400
Speaker 2: that about Lamar, but I do think it's possible with

1139
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 2: this Washington team, which may this weekend so interesting. Sorry,

1140
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 2: for the little spiel there, but I thought it was fascinating.

1141
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 2: Talk to me about your prop, what do you think?

1142
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I actually looked at Jane Daniel's rushing props here.

1143
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 1: I was on the escalator last week. It was feeling good.

1144
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:15,320
Speaker 1: I think he had like eight carries for thirty something

1145
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 1: yards at the half, and then they just didn't really

1146
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 1: use them a lot. As a runners second I have,

1147
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,479
Speaker 1: including all those red zone chances, I'm like, run the ball,

1148
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:24,919
Speaker 1: stop standing in the pocket. Beyond that and the fact

1149
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 1: they moved the Lions, his line is now nine and

1150
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 1: a half attempts fifty five rushing yards even our fifteen

1151
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:32,720
Speaker 1: plus attempts that one cut in half. I was looking

1152
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,319
Speaker 1: at that. I looked at Terry McLaurin. He's been red

1153
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: hot on touchdowns, Am and Ra. I think in chew

1154
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 1: up the middle of the field. All these guys got

1155
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,880
Speaker 1: really boosted lines because they're playing in a total with

1156
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,919
Speaker 1: fifty five and a half. So I'm going totally off here.

1157
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play Austin Eckler, a guy that we talked

1158
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 1: about in our Sunday Night podcast, because I think it's

1159
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,959
Speaker 1: a good matchup for him. The Lions are bottom five

1160
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 1: by DVA against running back receiving top ten most running

1161
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: back receiving yards, and they got worse late in the season.

1162
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 1: Why because all those injuries, all those linebacker injuries. Six

1163
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:05,399
Speaker 1: of their last nine games they had a running back

1164
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: get thirty yards or more against them receiving. Don't forget

1165
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:12,240
Speaker 1: remember that Buffalo game right out of the gates, Ty Johnson,

1166
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 1: Ty Johnson catching passes, five catches, one hundred and fourteen yards.

1167
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 1: That was a targeted attack throwing to the running back. Well,

1168
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: who in the last ten years of football would you

1169
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 1: rather throw the ball to at a running back than

1170
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 1: Austin Ekeler. I know he's old, but that's what you

1171
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,359
Speaker 1: have on the team for. You have him out there

1172
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:31,800
Speaker 1: to protect the quarterback and to play those third downs

1173
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 1: in passing situations. He was back last week, three catches,

1174
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 1: four touchdowns, even though he played under half the snaps.

1175
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 1: He was still kind of ramping up from injury. When

1176
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 1: he played at least half the snaps this year, seven

1177
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: times he averaged three point three catches thirty two yards,

1178
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: including he played fifty percent of the snaps or better

1179
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:53,840
Speaker 1: all five Washington losses. So I think this one fits

1180
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 1: the script here of what's an expected Washington loss. Even

1181
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: though I'm picking the other side, I don't want the

1182
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 1: meeting outcome. The line is like twenty one twenty two yards.

1183
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 1: If you'll get his game by game stats, he can

1184
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:07,280
Speaker 1: have like five yards one game or seven or forty

1185
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 1: a different game. I don't need the middle ground, so

1186
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 1: I'm just playing the high end here. Three times this

1187
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 1: season Heckler caught four passes that was in losses to

1188
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens, the Bucks, and the Eagles. He had forty

1189
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 1: seven yards or better all three of those games. And

1190
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 1: I think that's basically what the presumed expectation is for

1191
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 1: this game. The Lions fit those teams. So give me

1192
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler forty receiving yards is three to one. Fifty

1193
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 1: receiving yards plus five twenty five both of those in

1194
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 1: the quick slip. Just a little prop here, and otherwise

1195
00:57:37,600 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: I'm just in the Washington in this game.

1196
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 2: All we can hope is that they've learned their lesson

1197
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 2: and played Brian Robinson Less and Alison Eckler Moore. We

1198
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:46,280
Speaker 2: just had so much efficiency and a bunch of us

1199
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 2: were on props last week. It was frustrating. As heck,

1200
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:52,480
Speaker 2: just get him on the field, all right, Rams, Eagles,

1201
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 2: let you start. Let's go. What do you like?

1202
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I got the jersey on. I think we

1203
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 1: know where I'm going with this one. Give me the

1204
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 1: Eagles minus six on the Eagles the only real big

1205
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 1: favorite I trust this weekend, and I think, look, we

1206
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 1: can argue about which offense is better here, but this

1207
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 1: is about the defense. And this is a huge mismatch.

1208
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 1: Since the byweek Eagles are the clear by far number

1209
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 1: one defense. The Rams are still a bottom ten defense.

1210
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 1: And I know they played really well Monday, and I

1211
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:22,920
Speaker 1: thought that was more about the Vikings, but more importantly

1212
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 1: in this matcho, I think it's a really bad matchup

1213
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: for the Rams. They are a small defense. They are

1214
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 1: a fast defense. They've built that way on purpose. That's

1215
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 1: great against Minnesota. They're quick getting after Sam Darnold. It's

1216
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 1: not so good against power run teams like the Eagles.

1217
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 1: They just played this game in Los Angeles in November

1218
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 1: thirty seven to twenty for the Eagles. Philadelphia in that

1219
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 1: game ran forty five times for three hundred and fourteen yards.

1220
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:50,240
Speaker 1: They dominated that game four hundred and eighty yards to

1221
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 1: two hundred ninety. That's a huge margin. They had scoring

1222
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:56,480
Speaker 1: plays of eight, ten, ten, twelve, twelve. They're just chewing

1223
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 1: up the clock moving it down the field. Saquon had

1224
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,439
Speaker 1: his biggest gameless season, twenty six carries for two undred

1225
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: and fifty five yards. Two really long ones added to that.

1226
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting. Saquon in that game averaged seven point

1227
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 1: three yards before contact. That's not just Saquon, that's the

1228
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,080
Speaker 1: old line. This is an old line win to me, dominating.

1229
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:18,920
Speaker 1: You can tell too, because they played last year without Saquon.

1230
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 1: In La the Eagles won twenty three to fourteen, four

1231
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four yards to two hundred and forty nine,

1232
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 1: again a huge margin, thirty eight minutes of possession. The

1233
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 1: Eagles ran thirty nine times in that game, less yards

1234
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: because they didn't have as good as running backs as Saquon,

1235
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 1: but the old line dominated. They know what they are

1236
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 1: and they do it that way. Rams defense on early

1237
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 1: downs has not been great this season, so I think

1238
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: the Eagles just stay ahead of the chains and keep

1239
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 1: moving things. And the Rams, especially against top ten runoffenses,

1240
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 1: have not been good this year. Two and four against

1241
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: top ten runoffense by DVA over twenty eight points a

1242
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 1: game they've allowed in one of those the two wins

1243
00:59:57,760 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 1: was the forty four to forty two Buffalo win the

1244
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 1: sh out where they played like perfect ball the whole game.

1245
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 1: The other win was against Arizona when James Connor is out,

1246
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 1: who's the power run guy for them? Signing on a

1247
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 1: thousand counts. If you look at those six games against

1248
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,880
Speaker 1: the top run opponents, five of the six six worst

1249
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 1: games they played defensively all season were those games against

1250
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:18,600
Speaker 1: run opponents. Twenty four points are more allowed all but

1251
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:21,480
Speaker 1: one of those, twenty four or less in all but

1252
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 1: one of the other games against not top running teams.

1253
01:00:25,280 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 1: So I think that is a pretty damning stat for

1254
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 1: the Rams here. Defensively, I like vig Fangio kind of

1255
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: eliminating the deep stuff, forcing Stafford in the Rams to

1256
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 1: matriculate down the field, let Stafford make a mistake or two.

1257
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 1: Looks like maybe a snow game. That to me feels

1258
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 1: like a run heavy script as well.

1259
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 2: But the Eagles.

1260
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 1: Played the Rams two times in the last two years

1261
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 1: in LA they won by nine to seventeen. What is

1262
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 1: this line? Eagles minus six in Philly. I just think

1263
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 1: Eagles are the right pick here. Now. I can't get

1264
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 1: too confident because all the trends tell me to not

1265
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 1: trust the division home favorites, So I'm not gonna go

1266
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 1: too crazy here looking for an escalator. But I do

1267
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 1: think if you like an escalator, to look at Philly's

1268
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: team total to just rack up points, just run the

1269
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:14,920
Speaker 1: ball on them all game. Since the bye week, the

1270
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 1: Eagles have twenty six or more points eight out of

1271
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 1: fourteen games, So you just do the team total over

1272
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: twenty five and a half. That's the line if you want.

1273
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:25,320
Speaker 1: But they've scored thirty three five times, thirty seven three

1274
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 1: times including that Rams game, So a little bit on

1275
01:01:28,520 --> 01:01:31,600
Speaker 1: the Philly team total escalator. Twenty eight points or more

1276
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 1: is plus one, seventy thirty five or more is five

1277
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:36,840
Speaker 1: to one odds. I won't go too crazy on this

1278
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 1: one because the trends tell me I should fear betting

1279
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: too much on the favorite here. But I just think

1280
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: this is a really bad matchup for the Rams, and

1281
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 1: I like the Egles a lot here. Given all my

1282
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: fears with Jalen Hurtz, I don't think they come into

1283
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:50,919
Speaker 1: play here, because why even let him throw the game?

1284
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 1: Just run the ball all game long.

1285
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't necessarily think Hurtz needs to throw it

1286
01:01:57,520 --> 01:01:59,600
Speaker 2: a ton. I mean, historically he's been better at home

1287
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 2: than on the road, especially in the playoffs. Three home

1288
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 2: playoff games, he's three and oh straight up ats. They're

1289
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 2: covering by almost seventeen points per game in those three

1290
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 2: home playoff games. Philly's defense also allowing only twenty four

1291
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 2: total points in those three games. So, I mean, history

1292
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 2: is on your side. And I also like that Hurts

1293
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:23,000
Speaker 2: lead the playoffs and rushing touchdowns. Bet. I think something

1294
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 2: like that could come alive here where her Hurts scores

1295
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:27,640
Speaker 2: two and all of a sudden, maybe he's leading at

1296
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 2: the end of the round, it's like twelve to one.

1297
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 2: All right, your prop? What are you thinking?

1298
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 1: Yeah? My prop goes right along with that. I do

1299
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 1: like that Jalen Hurts touchdown here, So just give me

1300
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:40,320
Speaker 1: the Hurts anytime touchdown Mius one to fifteen. We got

1301
01:02:40,360 --> 01:02:42,439
Speaker 1: that quick slip in there for you, just a very easy,

1302
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 1: straightforward bet. You want Philadelphia rushing something here, that's what

1303
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: you want. But if you want Saquan good luck, you're

1304
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 1: gonna be playing twenty two attempts or his rushing line

1305
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,240
Speaker 1: is one hundred and thirteen and a half yards right now,

1306
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 1: which I haven't projected higher than. But that's a really

1307
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 1: high number. To get to Hurts ten attempts, you got

1308
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:01,520
Speaker 1: to go on the over. I just think he gets

1309
01:03:01,520 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 1: a rushing touchdown he scored against Washington earlier this year.

1310
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 1: He barely played in the other Washington game. So if

1311
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,520
Speaker 1: you look at basically fifteen games he played this year,

1312
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 1: fourteen rushing touchdowns, scored a touchdown at least in ten

1313
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:15,479
Speaker 1: of the fifteen. If you look back now, he's scored

1314
01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 1: a touchdown on the ground twenty nine of his last

1315
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 1: forty three games. That's sixty seven percent. That should be

1316
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,680
Speaker 1: minus two hundred. We're getting minus one fifteen. It's just

1317
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 1: too low for me. I don't really love the escalator

1318
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:29,280
Speaker 1: prices here. If you want the three touchdown hurt spat,

1319
01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 1: he has done that a couple of times. Did it

1320
01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl thirty three to one for three touchdowns.

1321
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 1: He's probably not gonna do it, but I think it's

1322
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 1: a bad number. I think it's like a three x

1323
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 1: value what it should be. And then I think better

1324
01:03:39,800 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 1: is if you like the Hurts touchdown here and you

1325
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 1: like the Eagles. Like you said, you're gonna get a

1326
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 1: good matchup next round. You're gonna like him against either

1327
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 1: Detroit or Washington. The next round. Five rushing touchdowns and

1328
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 1: three games in the Super Bowl. When he made the

1329
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, he scored five times. So I think you

1330
01:03:57,280 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 1: look at a hurt future of some sort. Three times

1331
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 1: Towns on the ground of the playoffs is plus six

1332
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 1: fifty four more is nineteen to one. I like the

1333
01:04:05,200 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 1: nineteen to one there, fifteen to one for touchdown leader.

1334
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 1: Some way investing in the future for Feely, I think

1335
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 1: is a good way. But the main beat here is

1336
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 1: just keep it simple. Jalen Hurts, get one on the

1337
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 1: ground minus one fifteen, Get that in the quick slot.

1338
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that. First of all, hit the

1339
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:23,520
Speaker 2: quick slip, but also kind of climb the ladder a

1340
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 2: little bit there with some different angles. All right, Game

1341
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 2: of the weekend. Game of the weekend, let's do it,

1342
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 2: Baltimore Buffalo. Game is basically one every direction you look at,

1343
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 2: from open to close. Nobody has any idea. If you

1344
01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 2: have an opinion, take it here. But let's start with

1345
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: the game first, and then we can get into some

1346
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 2: props Buffalo Baltimore.

1347
01:04:43,560 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 1: So I have an opinion. I love the Ravens. Here,

1348
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 1: I think that this line has moved toward Baltimore being

1349
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 1: a favorite as I expected. And look, I just think

1350
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 1: the Bills have been really great offensively for the season,

1351
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 1: but the Ravens are even better. They're the only offense

1352
01:04:56,800 --> 01:04:59,280
Speaker 1: it's even better than the Bills. Baltimore's defense has been

1353
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 1: better Uber two by DVA since Week nine. The Bills

1354
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:04,640
Speaker 1: kim barely off the field against Boe Nicks in the

1355
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 1: last round. Baltimore's defense looking much better. They had the

1356
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:10,040
Speaker 1: better run game, They're a better passing team right now,

1357
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: they have the better coaches. They're even better at special teams,

1358
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:15,320
Speaker 1: the one weakness Baltimore is supposed to have. Buffalo special

1359
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:18,040
Speaker 1: team has been even worse so far. So again here,

1360
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,960
Speaker 1: I think weirdly, the two Sunday games sort of mirror

1361
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 1: each other in a way that you might not expect

1362
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:26,080
Speaker 1: because I think Buffalo's defense is a bad matchup for

1363
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:29,040
Speaker 1: them against a power rushing attack. The Bills are not

1364
01:05:29,120 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 1: great covering middle of the field. Their linebackers, their safeties

1365
01:05:32,520 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: have not been great this year, and I think that's

1366
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:38,680
Speaker 1: a bad matchup against the Ravens the Bills on you

1367
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: look at run fits. The Bills prefer to run inside

1368
01:05:41,120 --> 01:05:43,440
Speaker 1: when they have the ball. That's where Baltimore's run d

1369
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:46,720
Speaker 1: is best. Defensively, the Bills want you to run outside.

1370
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:49,120
Speaker 1: That's where they're really good with their speed. They're not

1371
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 1: so good against power run up the middle. Well, hello,

1372
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:55,080
Speaker 1: welcome to the Ravens. So Ravens this season had an

1373
01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:58,280
Speaker 1: explosive play that's ten yards or more twenty five percent

1374
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:00,720
Speaker 1: of their plays. That's number one in the NFL. Guess

1375
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 1: who was worst in the NFL defensively explosive plays? The

1376
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:07,439
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills were ten plus or yards on twenty four

1377
01:06:07,480 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 1: percent of their plays that played out. In Week four,

1378
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:13,320
Speaker 1: first play of the game for Baltimore, Derrick Henry eighty

1379
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 1: seven yards to the house finishes with two hundred yards

1380
01:06:15,800 --> 01:06:19,439
Speaker 1: almost thirty five to ten. In that matchup, Baltimore had

1381
01:06:19,480 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 1: fourteen plays of ten or more yards. Buffalo had four.

1382
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 1: That's a really good way to lose fast is just

1383
01:06:25,080 --> 01:06:28,280
Speaker 1: giving up chunks of yards down the field. If you

1384
01:06:28,280 --> 01:06:31,520
Speaker 1: look at the defense, Buffalo is three and three against

1385
01:06:31,560 --> 01:06:34,160
Speaker 1: playoff teams. When they faced the top twelve opponent, they

1386
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 1: have allowed thirty points a game in six games there

1387
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 1: Buffalo against top running offenses like we just did, and

1388
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 1: the other game with the Rams. Five games they've allowed

1389
01:06:43,800 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 1: against top eleven run offenses twenty twenty eight, thirty five,

1390
01:06:47,520 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 1: forty two, and forty four points in those games. That's

1391
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 1: their four worst defensive games of the season. That's a

1392
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:56,120
Speaker 1: shootout with the Cardinals back in the opener, James Connor,

1393
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 1: that's a forty eight to forty two eighth, the Lions,

1394
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: forty two to forty four with the Rams, and obviously

1395
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:04,600
Speaker 1: this Ravens game. So I think it's just the wrong

1396
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 1: game for the Bills defense worse early in the game.

1397
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:09,800
Speaker 1: We know how good the Ravens are early. To get

1398
01:07:09,840 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 1: out early, the Ravens offense has been pretty battle tested.

1399
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,600
Speaker 1: Here's the thing for me. I think people are gonna

1400
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 1: make this the MVP narrative game because it's Lamar and

1401
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:22,680
Speaker 1: it's Josh Allen. Anyone's gonna say whoever wins that should

1402
01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 1: be the MVP. I think that whole conversation is backwards.

1403
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: Let me say this clearly, Baltimore won't win because the MVP.

1404
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:35,000
Speaker 1: Baltimore is going to win because they don't have the MVP.

1405
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:38,680
Speaker 1: The Ravens have nine Pro Bowlers, the Bills have two.

1406
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 1: They had two last year. Josh Allen is the MVP

1407
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:44,960
Speaker 1: because he's so important and has to do everything for

1408
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:48,600
Speaker 1: this team. The Ravens are good at all the things.

1409
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:50,960
Speaker 1: They run, they pass, they defend, they have all the

1410
01:07:50,960 --> 01:07:54,960
Speaker 1: coaches and the special teams. Baltimore is the better team

1411
01:07:55,080 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 1: all around. The Bills only win if Josh Allen is

1412
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:02,360
Speaker 1: just that much better than Lamar Jackson, because that's the

1413
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,280
Speaker 1: only real edge they can have here. Being the MVP

1414
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 1: is not a compliment to your team. It is a

1415
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:10,120
Speaker 1: fact that the team is not good enough, so you

1416
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:13,920
Speaker 1: have to be that valuable. I think the Bills lose

1417
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:17,519
Speaker 1: because Josh was that valuable to them this year. So

1418
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 1: Ravens minus one. I will also play Ravens minus six

1419
01:08:22,280 --> 01:08:25,599
Speaker 1: and a half plus two fifteen all eight wins they

1420
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:27,760
Speaker 1: had against playoff teams this year but were by seven

1421
01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:30,799
Speaker 1: or more points, and I will nibble thirty five Baltimore

1422
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:33,120
Speaker 1: points at plus three ninety. They did it last time

1423
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 1: against Buffalo, They've done it six other times. I know

1424
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:37,840
Speaker 1: it's the game of the week. I know it's the

1425
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 1: one we're waiting for. I think it's a bad matchup

1426
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:43,439
Speaker 1: for Buffalo. I think Baltimore is the better team and

1427
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:45,400
Speaker 1: that's why they win, not because of the quarterback.

1428
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:51,080
Speaker 2: Josh is more important to his team. Lamar had the

1429
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:54,240
Speaker 2: better season. With that. You can figure out how you

1430
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 2: want what the award means, but to me, that's the situation.

1431
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:01,680
Speaker 2: You one stat and then I'll toss it back to you.

1432
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:04,599
Speaker 2: Lamar opened as an underdog in this game plus one

1433
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:06,840
Speaker 2: and a half, now sitting at minus one and a

1434
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:10,040
Speaker 2: half when he opens as an underdog. For getting the situation.

1435
01:09:10,360 --> 01:09:13,600
Speaker 2: He is seventeen and three against spreading his career, including

1436
01:09:13,960 --> 01:09:17,719
Speaker 2: nineteen and one in a six point teaser, so usually

1437
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 2: the right angle. But we will see what happens there.

1438
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 2: I'll toss it back to you. You like one prop

1439
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 2: and then I'll get us out of here.

1440
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, last prop here for this game. Now, Like, if

1441
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:29,040
Speaker 1: you want to just do the Derrick Henry prop, we've

1442
01:09:29,080 --> 01:09:31,599
Speaker 1: been doing one hundred yards and two scores this week.

1443
01:09:31,600 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: Add the win ins and the line is close. That's

1444
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:35,880
Speaker 1: plus four eighty. I don't mind that when he's still

1445
01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:38,040
Speaker 1: doing in over a quarter the Baltimore wins. If you

1446
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:40,120
Speaker 1: like the Ravens well, he did that against the Bills

1447
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:42,479
Speaker 1: earlier this season, So I don't mind that. I'm gonna

1448
01:09:42,479 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 1: play the other Baltimore running back, Justice Hill. I'm gonna

1449
01:09:45,360 --> 01:09:46,880
Speaker 1: do a little bit of an ausneckler here. I like

1450
01:09:47,040 --> 01:09:50,040
Speaker 1: Justice Hill as a receiver in this one. Last week,

1451
01:09:50,080 --> 01:09:52,840
Speaker 1: we tried to fade the Bills as a receiving running back,

1452
01:09:52,920 --> 01:09:55,640
Speaker 1: Javonta Williams didn't do anything for me. Going back to

1453
01:09:55,680 --> 01:09:59,559
Speaker 1: the well, Buffalo allows top two most receptions and yards

1454
01:09:59,560 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 1: and touch downs the running back forty two yards a game.

1455
01:10:02,520 --> 01:10:05,720
Speaker 1: Receiving to running backs, they're not good short, They're not

1456
01:10:05,760 --> 01:10:08,080
Speaker 1: good over middle of the field. If you look at

1457
01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:11,240
Speaker 1: Justice Hill last game against Buffalo this season, that was

1458
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 1: his best game of the season. Six catches, seventy eight

1459
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:17,879
Speaker 1: yards and a score. He only actually played twenty snaps

1460
01:10:17,880 --> 01:10:19,920
Speaker 1: in that game, so it's not like that was a

1461
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:21,880
Speaker 1: script thing. Oh yeah, Well, they were behind all games,

1462
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:23,960
Speaker 1: so they had their receiving backout. No, no, no, they were

1463
01:10:24,000 --> 01:10:26,000
Speaker 1: way ahead all game. He was barely on the field,

1464
01:10:26,200 --> 01:10:28,360
Speaker 1: but when he was on the field, he was just

1465
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: carving up this Buffalo defense. So here's what's interesting with

1466
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 1: Justice Hill. He's had three catches or more eight times

1467
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 1: this season. He scored a touchdown for those eight games,

1468
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:40,400
Speaker 1: so when he's getting some volume, he's kind of actually

1469
01:10:40,439 --> 01:10:43,120
Speaker 1: doing some damage. Because yeah, Baltimore is really good. Everyone

1470
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:45,680
Speaker 1: does some damage. He's averaging forty two yards a game

1471
01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 1: when he gets those three catches. So I kind of

1472
01:10:48,400 --> 01:10:51,680
Speaker 1: like this also with the Baltimore play because there's a

1473
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 1: little bit of a negative Baltimore script. Yet the Ravens

1474
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,760
Speaker 1: aren't as good as I think, and they're behind. I

1475
01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 1: like this even better here. I like it anyways, but

1476
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 1: I think it gives me a little protection in case

1477
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:04,719
Speaker 1: I'm wrong about Ravens. Justice Hill has had four catches

1478
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:07,600
Speaker 1: and more six times. Three of those six times have

1479
01:11:07,680 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 1: been in losses, So if I'm wrong about Baltimore, I

1480
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:13,320
Speaker 1: could be right here. Even more so so Justice Hill

1481
01:11:13,600 --> 01:11:16,400
Speaker 1: over twenty and a half receiving yards, that's the main bet,

1482
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 1: and I like the over twenty and a half with

1483
01:11:18,320 --> 01:11:21,639
Speaker 1: a touchdown is eight to one. That's one last quick

1484
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:24,320
Speaker 1: slip for you on the Justice Hill prop. There. Get

1485
01:11:24,400 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 1: him in. Let's get him in for twenty five yards

1486
01:11:26,880 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 1: and a touchdown. Let's get the big Baltimore win to

1487
01:11:29,120 --> 01:11:31,280
Speaker 1: wrap the weekend. And then we'll come back your Sunday

1488
01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:32,920
Speaker 1: night and wrap everything up and do it again.

1489
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:37,280
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that Justice Hill prop because it also

1490
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 2: doesn't matter about the script of the game mostly, and

1491
01:11:40,600 --> 01:11:42,760
Speaker 2: if they're trailing and you're wrong and they come back,

1492
01:11:42,840 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 2: you end up possibly hitting both. That's why that eight

1493
01:11:46,040 --> 01:11:49,360
Speaker 2: to one is pretty interesting. One sat I will give

1494
01:11:49,360 --> 01:11:52,120
Speaker 2: you here before we move into the end, and I

1495
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:54,160
Speaker 2: thought this is just it kind of worked towards your

1496
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:57,479
Speaker 2: Ravens team total bet. But when opponents score twenty one

1497
01:11:57,479 --> 01:11:59,680
Speaker 2: points or more against the Bills, Buffalo just four and

1498
01:12:00,800 --> 01:12:03,800
Speaker 2: four and twenty two against the spread since twenty twenty two,

1499
01:12:03,880 --> 01:12:07,120
Speaker 2: worst mark in the NFL. So I mean at that point,

1500
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:09,639
Speaker 2: you could get into a shootout here and the spread

1501
01:12:09,800 --> 01:12:12,479
Speaker 2: pretty much means nothing in this game. And I'm guessing

1502
01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:14,479
Speaker 2: a lot of those numbers are a little large in

1503
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 2: that stat but it just tells to Buffalo's defense. So

1504
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:20,440
Speaker 2: we will see how it goes. We're both on Baltimore

1505
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:22,759
Speaker 2: and we've even given you some ways to play Buffalo

1506
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:25,599
Speaker 2: in this game. So that is it for the Action

1507
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:29,839
Speaker 2: Network podcast for our Derive Visional Round episode Best Bets.

1508
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:32,760
Speaker 2: Do not forget to download the free award winning Action

1509
01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 2: Network app to see more from all of our Action

1510
01:12:35,160 --> 01:12:37,880
Speaker 2: Network contributors, Plus you can track your own picks. Also

1511
01:12:38,479 --> 01:12:40,800
Speaker 2: check out the action Ework discord server to chop it

1512
01:12:40,880 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 2: up with experts, follow gamblers. I'm in there. A bunch

1513
01:12:44,320 --> 01:12:46,679
Speaker 2: of people are taught chatting during games all the time.

1514
01:12:46,920 --> 01:12:50,120
Speaker 2: There's a link to join in the description of this podcast. Plus,

1515
01:12:50,360 --> 01:12:52,080
Speaker 2: if you want to tell some of the bets that

1516
01:12:52,160 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 2: we gave out today on this episode, make sure to

1517
01:12:54,360 --> 01:12:56,960
Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

1518
01:12:57,080 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 2: video description below. We will be back Sunday night for

1519
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 2: the recap episode. Thank you for listening, Good luck with

1520
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:06,479
Speaker 2: all your bets this weekend, and here's to the best

1521
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:24,879
Speaker 2: weekend in sports. Let's do it again. Action Network reminds

1522
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:28,760
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1523
01:13:28,800 --> 01:13:31,920
Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1524
01:13:31,960 --> 01:13:33,960
Speaker 2: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler