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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Every year, at the G twenty summit, a group of

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Speaker 2: leaders who represent some of the world's largest economies get

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Speaker 2: together to hammer out deals that will shape how money

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Speaker 2: flows around the world, and Bloomberg Executive editor Flavia Cross

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Speaker 2: Jackson says, there's one tradition that looms large.

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Speaker 1: There are a few things that are more iconic and

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Speaker 1: memorable and important from an optics point of view than

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Speaker 1: the family photo.

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Speaker 2: That's so called family photo happens every G twenty. All

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Speaker 2: the leaders at the conference lineup, often in front of

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Speaker 2: their flags or a scenic backdrop, for a formal portrait.

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Speaker 2: This time around leaders like UK Prime Minister Kir Starmer,

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Speaker 2: Chinese President Shi Jinping, Argentinian President Javier Malay, and this

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Speaker 2: year's G twenty host Brazil's President Luise and Nacio da Silva.

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Speaker 2: It's a picture that shared around the world and scrutinized

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Speaker 2: for clues.

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Speaker 1: That is when you really get a sense of how

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Speaker 1: these men and women really get on. It can tell

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Speaker 1: you a lot about the shifting balance of power. So

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Speaker 1: people pay a lot of attention to, well, who's in

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Speaker 1: the center, who's got their arms around someone else.

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Speaker 2: But when the family photo was taken at this year's

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Speaker 2: G twenty summit, which wrapped up yesterday in Rio de Janeiro,

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Speaker 2: it took the world by surprise because some important people

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Speaker 2: were missing.

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Speaker 1: The fact that Joe Biden was not to be seen

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Speaker 1: in that photo, that that photo was taken speaks volumes

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Speaker 1: really about some of the concerns that people have about

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Speaker 1: the status of the US and where it's headed.

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Speaker 2: G twenty organizers said President Biden and other leaders like

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Speaker 2: Italy's Georgia Maloney and Canada's Justin Trudeau were missing from

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Speaker 2: the photo because they were late. Biden's can blamed logistical

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Speaker 2: issues and said the photo was taken too early, and

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Speaker 2: while they did ultimately take a second photo with Biden

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Speaker 2: in the center, Flavia says.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to get any more lasting

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Speaker 1: symbolis about the vanishing sort of influence of America than

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Speaker 1: the fact that you have a G twenty picture without

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Speaker 1: the president of the biggest, most powerful nation in it.

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Speaker 2: As the summit grappled with breaking news out of Ukraine

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday, the country launched its first US made long

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Speaker 2: range missiles into Russia, leaders faced another reality as Biden

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Speaker 2: wraps up his final months in office. As global conflicts

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Speaker 2: escalate and as the world prepares for the second term

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Speaker 2: of President elect Donald Trump, the world order is shifting.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, my co host David

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Speaker 2: Gura takes us to Rio di Janeiro. He and Flavia

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Speaker 2: break down the biggest takeaways from this year's G twenty summit.

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Speaker 3: Flavia, it's great to speak with you from our perch

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Speaker 3: here above Copacabana Beach, and I want to start with Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: There was a formal agenda for this summit that was

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Speaker 3: kind of scuttled by developments halfway around the world. Just

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Speaker 3: get us up to speed on what happened on that battleground.

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Speaker 1: I mean yes, as the G twenty leaders were getting

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Speaker 1: ready to start the second day here in Rio de Janeiro,

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Speaker 1: the news hit them that thinks had suddenly escalated. We'd

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Speaker 1: broken the news along with the New York Times in

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Speaker 1: Washington Posts that the US had finally decided to come

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine's rescue and send them some long range missiles.

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Speaker 1: And on the one thousandth day since the start of

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Speaker 1: the conflict Iu when Vladimir Putin decided to invade his

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Speaker 1: neighbor Zelenski, who was not invited here in Rio and

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Speaker 1: was not very happy about it, decided to take advantage

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Speaker 1: of its newly grand missile capabilities to strike a military

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Speaker 1: base inside Russian territory, and Moscow sort of essentially responded

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Speaker 1: in kind on the same day up to its threat

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Speaker 1: of a nuclear response to conventional attacks. So this was

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Speaker 1: essentially what leaders here at the G twenty woke up to.

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Speaker 1: And it's no coincidence really that Ukraine and the war

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Speaker 1: also in the Middle East have essentially dominated the agenda

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Speaker 1: and really exposed the extent to which the world's biggest

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Speaker 1: powers and economies are just can't seem to agree on anything.

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Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the reaction to what's

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Speaker 3: happened among members of the G twenty. And we should

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Speaker 3: say this is a group of nations, not all of

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Speaker 3: whom are allied with one another. There are disagreements among

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Speaker 3: these members of the Group of twenty. How did they respond?

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Speaker 3: How did this kind of color the conversations they were

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Speaker 3: having with each other on the sidelines of this event.

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Speaker 1: I would say that flat out the biggest thing that

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Speaker 1: they were talking about privately is how the hell they're

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Speaker 1: going to handle Donald Trump when he comes back in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. And you know the takeaways the following

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Speaker 1: flattery will only get you so far those weakness, never

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Speaker 1: grovel and always ask the difficult questions. And you're going

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Speaker 1: to see people like Emanuel Macron who have like that

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Speaker 1: personal chemistry with Donald Trump, who are really going to

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Speaker 1: try and play upon it.

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Speaker 3: I want to ask you where all of this might

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Speaker 3: be headed, and I think in particular about the German

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Speaker 3: Chancellor all Up Schultz, who is here on the heels

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Speaker 3: of having a phone conversation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

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Speaker 3: I think so to say, a lot of leaders here

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Speaker 3: wanted to hear about how that phone call went. Did

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Speaker 3: we learn anything from him, from those who spoke with

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Speaker 3: him about what was discussed and sort of what a

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Speaker 3: negotiated settlement might look like if Ukrainian Ands Allies were

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Speaker 3: to go down that path.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you what we learned that a lot

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Speaker 1: of leaders were not happy with him having that phone

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Speaker 1: call at all. They didn't feel like he consulted with

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Speaker 1: them particularly, they felt that he didn't get much out

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Speaker 1: of it, and it felt a little bit like he

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Speaker 1: was trying to sort of, you know, almost ingratiate himself

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Speaker 1: with Trump. I mean, well, the interesting thing that happened,

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Speaker 1: obviously is that after the league on the US missiles,

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Speaker 1: there was sort of an expectation that perhaps some of

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Speaker 1: the other countries would act in kind, and Schultz immediately

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Speaker 1: came out and said that Germany wasn't going to volunteer

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Speaker 1: any tauruses, and so people immediately were like, hold on

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Speaker 1: a second, You're a massive lame duck. He's being forced

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Speaker 1: into early elections. He might even be heading back into

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Speaker 1: a palace coup. Things are looking very grim for him domestically.

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Speaker 1: He had this call that really a lot of his

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Speaker 1: colleagues didn't appreciate, and also he blatantly backed the wrong course,

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Speaker 1: and he was kept waiting by Trump for ages before

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Speaker 1: he could even get a phone call with him.

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Speaker 3: Stepping back a little further, here we are on what

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Speaker 3: is the thousandth day of the war in Ukraine. Do

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Speaker 3: we have a sense of sort of where this is

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Speaker 3: head at Bloomberg News had reported in the run up

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Speaker 3: to this summit, there is more agreement among allies that

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Speaker 3: perhaps this ends at the negotiating table. What's your best

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Speaker 3: sense of sort of where we go from here as

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Speaker 3: this summit dissolves.

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Speaker 1: I think it would be a fool's errand to try

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Speaker 1: and predict how this will end. I mean, of course

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Speaker 1: Trump has come in and said he would like click

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Speaker 1: his fingers and edit in a day. But I think

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Speaker 1: there is a growing sense that we're headed towards some

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Speaker 1: kind of frozen conflict. The appearance of you know, ten

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Speaker 1: thousand North Korean soldiers by the border certainly was a

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Speaker 1: wake up call. We reported over the weekend that there

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Speaker 1: might go up to as much as one hundred thousand,

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Speaker 1: and that's certainly a game changer. You have countries like

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Speaker 1: China sheet jimping, who's not particularly happy about that development

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Speaker 1: and sort of wondering, okay, where is this headed. But again,

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Speaker 1: Zelensky wants to end this. Putin doesn't respect anyone when

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Speaker 1: he thinks they're coming into a position of weakness. So

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Speaker 1: also one should interpret some of the actions by Biden,

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Speaker 1: who's in his last two months in power, as someone

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Speaker 1: who's essentially trying to do whatever he can to prop

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Speaker 1: Zelensky up, to try and give him a little bit

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Speaker 1: of an edge, a bit more of a head start

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Speaker 1: before he kind of sits at the table and negotiates.

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Speaker 1: But I think, you know, ultimately you're looking at the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's going to have to give up some territory,

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Speaker 1: and no one really wants to say the quiet part

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Speaker 1: out loud.

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Speaker 2: More from Flavia and David's conversation After the break, we're back.

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Speaker 2: My co host David Gera spoke with Bloomberg's Flavia Krass

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Speaker 2: Jackson on the ground in Rio de Janeiro about the

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Speaker 2: shifting world order at this year's G twenty summit. Here's

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Speaker 2: more from their conversation.

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Speaker 3: So in years past, you've kind of watched the American

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Speaker 3: President at events like these, and he plays a central role.

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Speaker 3: How different was Joe Biden's stature at the summit here

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Speaker 3: in Rio.

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Speaker 1: It was interesting to sort of observe Biden in this

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Speaker 1: setting because it's clear that you know, people will miss him,

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Speaker 1: they will sort of remember Joe Biden, perhaps fondly. Yesterday

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Speaker 1: during cocktail hour, everyone wanted to have a selfie with him,

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Speaker 1: you know, when he was being a good sport, and

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Speaker 1: there's this general idea that you know, he represents a

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Speaker 1: set of values about what the US is, what it

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Speaker 1: represents in terms of the force of good, its duties

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Speaker 1: towards other nations, and preserving peace that will simply be

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Speaker 1: lost in the next four years under a very, very

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Speaker 1: different president who represents incredibly different values, whose approach to geopolitics,

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Speaker 1: as has been said repeatedly, is incredibly transactional. Probably his

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Speaker 1: biggest meeting was with President she and of course things

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Speaker 1: had gone differently if Kamala Harris said one, he would

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Speaker 1: have shown up at Apex with her, and that would

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Speaker 1: have been an incredibly important meeting. And I think it

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Speaker 1: would be interesting to sort of think about what the

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Speaker 1: two of them had to say to each other. That

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Speaker 1: sort of meeting took on a different, more understated meaning

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Speaker 1: given current events, and one can only imagine that perhaps

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Speaker 1: I'd tried to sort of impart some of his wisdom

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Speaker 1: gleaned over the past few years. I think what people

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Speaker 1: will remember is that four years ago Joe Biden declared

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Speaker 1: America's back, and the image that people will recall is

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Speaker 1: him quite literally fading into the jungle as he landed

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Speaker 1: in the Amazon in Manaos.

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Speaker 3: As he watched all of this unfold. This he kind

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Speaker 3: of faded into the background here in Rio, who was

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Speaker 3: in the foreground, who was stepping forward, who was kind

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Speaker 3: of taking up the mantle that he once had.

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Speaker 1: Javier Milat was rocking it. He absolutely reveled in really

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Speaker 1: kind of almost taunting Lula. They are complete opposite ideologically,

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Speaker 1: and you could tell that he was really enjoying kind

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Speaker 1: of needling Lula. There's a picture of them when they

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Speaker 1: kind of stood side by side and there was stony faced,

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Speaker 1: but you know, he is incredibly charismatic. He rocked up

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Speaker 1: with his girlfriend and his sister, who is his biggest

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Speaker 1: confidante and is in every meeting. He and Macron were

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Speaker 1: like kind of grasping at each other and kind of

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Speaker 1: striking manly poses. He was going off on rants about

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Speaker 1: the free market. He was flushed with the enjoyment of

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Speaker 1: having just come here from having been in mar Lago,

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Speaker 1: where you know, he was hanging out with Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: and Trump. So I think for many, you know, he

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Speaker 1: was a gravitational pull of like, okay, this is a

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Speaker 1: guy who has access. And I think that's very much

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Speaker 1: what you saw here at the G twenty. Everyone was

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Speaker 1: kind of looking out for themselves and trying to work

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Speaker 1: out Okay, how can I ingratiate myself with the new

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Speaker 1: powerbrokers in this group?

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Speaker 3: Well, talk about that other poll, that other center of

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Speaker 3: gravity kind of drawing these leaders toward it. That is

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Speaker 3: mar Lago, that is South Florida, where Donald Trump, the

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Speaker 3: president elect, is waiting for his inauguration. You mentioned that

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Speaker 3: Pafo Malay of Argentina went there were other leaders thinking

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Speaker 3: about making a trip there. Did other leaders make a

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Speaker 3: trip there in advance or after this summit?

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Speaker 1: Everyone who's anyone is trying to get there. And if

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Speaker 1: they're telling you they're not, they're lying. Jojia Miloney has

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Speaker 1: kind of put out the feelers her in is. Elon

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Speaker 1: Muski absolutely adores her. He has a sort of strange

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Speaker 1: fixation with birth rates if he has one of the lowest,

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Speaker 1: so he's beater Rum several times. Macron has a good

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Speaker 1: relationship with Trump and it is probably trying to leverage

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Speaker 1: that as well. Starmer God bless him, is in really

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Speaker 1: bad shape. He managed to put his foot in it

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Speaker 1: with she Thy Child China on human rights in Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: and he doesn't have many inroads with Trump. But you

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Speaker 1: know a lot of people have already had conversations with Trump,

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Speaker 1: and one quite interesting development there is how many times

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Speaker 1: Elon Moscuez popped up in those conversations, So for example,

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Speaker 1: with Serbia's Vuchik or even Urdigan, Turkey's president and leader.

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Speaker 1: He was here today. He has a good relationship with Trump,

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Speaker 1: so it's very interesting to see, you know, just these

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Speaker 1: sort of unusual ways in which people are trying to

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Speaker 1: get to him, and of course everyone's trying to brush

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Speaker 1: up on their golf skills.

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Speaker 3: Going into the summit. I talked to Ben Rhodes, who

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Speaker 3: was a foreign policy advisor to President Obama, and he

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Speaker 3: told me it was a distraction to look at how

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Speaker 3: the participants in this summit would be thinking about a

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Speaker 3: Trump presidency. What would be more interesting, as he put it,

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Speaker 3: is to look at what new relationships were forming, what

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Speaker 3: kind of new trade alliances we're seeing formed on the

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Speaker 3: sidelines of this the g twenty summit. Did you see

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Speaker 3: anything that stood out to you about the way that

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Speaker 3: sand is shifting, the way the terrain is shifting.

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Speaker 1: I think what really stood out for me, and you

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Speaker 1: could see it in the family picture when she was

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Speaker 1: in the middle holding hands and putting them up, is

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Speaker 1: that the Global South felt pretty unified. That you know,

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Speaker 1: Moody and she and Ramaphosa and these other countries. There

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Speaker 1: was a clarity to what they were bringing to the table,

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Speaker 1: how they saw things. The shambles was on the other

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Speaker 1: side of the table. And so the idea that actually

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Speaker 1: in a world where Trump is back, where things are

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Speaker 1: delineated and very clear, you're either on the good side

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Speaker 1: or the bad side. You either run a trade deficit

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Speaker 1: or trade surplus. That the rules of engagement were quite clear,

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Speaker 1: and it wasn't masked by some of the other stuff,

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Speaker 1: which is you know, democratic values and human rights and

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Speaker 1: all of that.

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Speaker 2: That it was.

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Speaker 1: It really boiled down to the sheer economics of it.

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Speaker 1: And of course that's where the rubber meets the road,

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Speaker 1: because if Trump does come in and slap China with

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Speaker 1: sixty percent tariffs and everyone starts escalating, then that is

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Speaker 1: going to be a very interesting scenario and a very

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Speaker 1: complicated scenario for a lot of the powers that we'll

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Speaker 1: be meeting next to you.

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Speaker 2: That was David Gera with Bloomberg's Flavia Kraus Jackson in

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Speaker 2: Rio de Janeiro. And this is the big take from

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by

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Speaker 2: David Fox. It was edited by Aaron Edwards and Greg White,

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Speaker 2: fact checked by Adriannatapia, and mixed by Alex Sugia. Our

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Speaker 2: senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso.

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Speaker 2: Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster. Borr Sage Bauman is

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you liked this episode, make

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Speaker 2: sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever you

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Speaker 2: listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for listening. We'll be back tomorrow