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Speaker 1: So this is our all star panel.

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Speaker 2: Christin Leagalde, President of the European Central Bank, Christian Wdner,

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Speaker 2: Federal Minister of Finance of Germany, Mohammad al Jadana, Minister

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Speaker 2: of Finance of Saudi Arabia, President Tharman Sham Gattam, the

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Speaker 2: President of Singapore, doctor and Goozi okonji Uela, Director Journal

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Speaker 2: of the World Trade Organization. And David Rubinstein, co founder

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Speaker 2: and co chairman of Carlisle. So thank you all for

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Speaker 2: joining us.

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Speaker 3: Mister President, let me start.

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Speaker 2: Off with you, twenty twenty three, really surprised expectations to

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Speaker 2: the upside. Is a global economy really now as resilient

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Speaker 2: as we think?

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Speaker 4: Well, it's we have to think about it not on

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Speaker 4: a year two year basis, because the largest challenges to

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Speaker 4: resilience that we face what's creeping beneath. It's the slow

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Speaker 4: moving changes that threaten us to the far more fundamental

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Speaker 4: way in the years to come.

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Speaker 3: We know what they are.

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Speaker 4: We know what's happening in the shift in the global

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Speaker 4: ecological balance. We know what's happening in terms of the

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Speaker 4: aging of societies, which we are by and large not

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Speaker 4: prepared for. We know what's happening in the gradual drift

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Speaker 4: towards polarization. These are the real threats to resilience and

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Speaker 4: to human security. And I'm not even talking about the wars,

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Speaker 4: including the stupid wars that we see.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much, made Miguel.

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Speaker 2: Can you talk to us about what you signed twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three that gives you hope for economies in the future.

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Speaker 5: Well, good morning to everyone, first, and thank you for

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Speaker 5: having on the panel, because I'm a strange panelist, actually,

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Speaker 5: because I cannot talk about the things that I spend

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Speaker 5: one hundred percent of my time on. I'm a central

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Speaker 5: bank president for European Central Bank. We have a monetary

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Speaker 5: policy meeting coming up on Wednesday and Thursday, and during

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Speaker 5: one week before that, I cannot talk about what I do,

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Speaker 5: what I hope for, what the analysis supporting our conclusions is.

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Speaker 5: So I thought long and hard, and I tried to

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Speaker 5: identify a few of the trends that we have seen

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Speaker 5: in twenty three that will have no impact on our

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Speaker 5: decision next week, and what we should sort of anticipate

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Speaker 5: for the future. And I came around to something that

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Speaker 5: I called normalization. That's what we have beginning to see,

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Speaker 5: especially in the end of twenty three, but towards something

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Speaker 5: that is not going to be normality. So from normalization

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Speaker 5: to non normality. So what do I mean by that?

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Speaker 5: The period before twenty three was strange, extraordinary, difficult to

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Speaker 5: analyze by many accounts, and twenty three we have seen

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Speaker 5: the beginning of normalization. When you look at consumption, for instance,

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Speaker 5: around the world. I'm not talking just about the your area.

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Speaker 1: Consumption is still a driving force for growth, but.

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Speaker 5: The tailwind that we had the benefit of are gradually fading.

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Speaker 5: This very strange, extremely tight labor market still tight, but

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Speaker 5: a little less, and some of the indices that we

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Speaker 5: use to identify the relationship, particularly between vacancies and unemployment,

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Speaker 5: are changing gradually, so less tightness on the.

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Speaker 1: Job on the job market.

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Speaker 5: When we look at savings around the world, there was

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Speaker 5: plenty of.

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Speaker 1: It, excess saving.

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Speaker 5: With that excess saving pretty much in all advanced economies

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Speaker 5: in particular, is coming down, and from this ten percent

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Speaker 5: excess saving we're getting close to virtually zero.

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Speaker 3: So if you.

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Speaker 5: Combine these two job less tight savings diminishing, clearly consumption

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Speaker 5: is not as strong a force as it used to be.

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Speaker 1: That's one thing. The second thing which is also beginning.

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Speaker 5: To normalize, and I hope and Guzzie will talk a

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Speaker 5: lot about that is trade. Trade when down and was

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Speaker 5: massively disrupted by the goods versus services versus good over

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Speaker 5: the course of the last two years preceding twenty three,

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Speaker 5: but it is beginning now to really pick up. In

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Speaker 5: October we had global trade numbers that for the first

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Speaker 5: time in many months was up and.

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Speaker 1: The pattern of train is changing.

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Speaker 5: But I will leave it to my friend and Guzi

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Speaker 5: to describe that better. And the third normalization, and I

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Speaker 5: have to say that is that around the world, not

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Speaker 5: including the EU area, around the world, inflation is coming down.

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Speaker 5: And we have seen it yet again in November, both

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Speaker 5: headline inflation and core inflation. So that's what I call

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Speaker 5: the normalization that we have observed in twenty three. And

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Speaker 5: maybe you'll give me the floor another time to talk

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Speaker 5: about how it is not normality that we're heading to.

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Speaker 2: Weill certainly will talk about that. Doctor Guziki, could you

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Speaker 2: talk to us a bit about the resilience that you've

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Speaker 2: seen in global supply chains and trade.

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Speaker 1: Well, thank you.

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Speaker 6: I think Christine has set me up nicely. Let's see

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Speaker 6: if I can if I can move on that. It

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Speaker 6: is true that in twenty twenty three trade was considerably down.

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Speaker 6: Actually we goods trade. We had to revise our forecast

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Speaker 6: down from one point seven percent for the year to

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Speaker 6: zero point eight percent. In the last quarter, as you said,

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Speaker 6: we saw an optic in the numbers, and trades showed

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Speaker 6: a recovery led by automobiles and components and parts. So

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Speaker 6: but only now when we look at the first three

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Speaker 6: quarters and the last quarter, we still think were coming

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Speaker 6: at about the number we projected or slightly less than that.

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Speaker 6: We had been more optimistic about twenty twenty four and

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Speaker 6: we were forecasting considerably a considerable recovery to three point

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Speaker 6: three percent. So, like Christine said, maybe moving towards normalization

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Speaker 6: or how you put it, but not normal because trade

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Speaker 6: growth is still below trend, is still trending below GDP growth.

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Speaker 6: But the problem that I have is the geopolitical conflicts

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Speaker 6: that we now see the problem in the Red Sea

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Speaker 6: and the Swiss Canal. We also have problems in the

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Speaker 6: Panama Canal because of climate change. There's so many uncertainties,

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Speaker 6: and of course all the elections that we see around

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Speaker 6: the world and what that may bring. I think there

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Speaker 6: are a lot of uncertainties that make forecasting difficult. However,

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Speaker 6: I'll take a bit of a risk and say I

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Speaker 6: think it was still it would be better than twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty three, coming at three point three percent below that,

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Speaker 6: but much better than what we saw in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 6: Unless a major war breaks out, than all bets are off.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, doctor and ministry learner.

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Speaker 2: Germany has prospered in part for many years from buying

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Speaker 2: energy from Russia and selling cars to China. All of

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Speaker 2: that is changing also because China is making so many evs.

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Speaker 3: How do you marry the two?

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Speaker 7: Given the historic shocks we have seen the last years,

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Speaker 7: the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and the German

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Speaker 7: economy has shown resilience as well. Think about the energy

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Speaker 7: situation you have mentioned. We had to reinvent the German

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Speaker 7: energy infrastructure and supply in the last eighteen months, and

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Speaker 7: so we have.

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Speaker 3: Not the growth perspective we.

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Speaker 7: Are expecting, but our economy has shown these resilience. Looking

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Speaker 7: to what will come over the next years, Christine said, Okay,

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Speaker 7: we are in the process of normalization. I would say

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Speaker 7: we are witnessing a new normal and twenty twenty three

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Speaker 7: marks this new normal.

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Speaker 8: Think about the.

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Speaker 7: Ways of artificial intelligence we all have discussing here in Doubles.

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Speaker 7: Think about the geopolitical tension and the threat of fragmentation

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Speaker 7: we will have to deal with over the next years,

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Speaker 7: the higher debt levels after the pandemic, and the energy

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Speaker 7: price hikes which has shrunk our physical space to finance transformation,

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Speaker 7: and given the very little growth perspective of the global economy,

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Speaker 7: we have to answer the question how we will be

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Speaker 7: able in the future to finance transition by the private

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Speaker 7: capital markets, and how to fight poverty around the world.

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Speaker 7: So for me, it's not normalization. It is a new

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Speaker 7: normal which we have to be prepared for and has

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Speaker 7: twenty and twenty three given me hope you asked, I

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Speaker 7: would put it this way. It was a call for

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Speaker 7: action because we have to rechange some policies, and probably

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Speaker 7: we see a new need for structural reforms. Probably we

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Speaker 7: are at the beginning of an era of new structural reforms.

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Speaker 2: Ministry algy Dan, What do you see as the main risks,

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Speaker 2: you know, compared to maybe the resilience that we saw

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Speaker 2: last year.

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Speaker 9: There are a few things I think I would just

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Speaker 9: possibly from what I've heard a little bit of context.

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Speaker 9: I think obviously there are the immediate risks that you

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Speaker 9: know will be obvious, which is geo politics, fragmentation, and

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Speaker 9: obviously the debt situation, particularly in low income countries, and

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Speaker 9: we are talking about them and we realize that they

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Speaker 9: actually pause restisant that will add to inflation and monetary tightening.

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Speaker 9: But these are the immediate ones. We need to attend

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Speaker 9: to them. But then I think we need to make

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Speaker 9: sure that we also attend to the medium term. I mean,

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Speaker 9: the projections that we have seen from the World Bank

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Speaker 9: or time of clearly suggests that this decade would be

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Speaker 9: the lowest growth potential for the world economy compared to

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Speaker 9: the first decade of essentially in the second decade. And

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Speaker 9: yesterday Aji Banga said in one of the banans a

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Speaker 9: very nice statement that will call him. He said, these

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Speaker 9: are projections, They are not our destiny, and therefore we

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Speaker 9: should actually.

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Speaker 10: See what can we do.

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Speaker 9: To form our destiny by actually changing the way we

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Speaker 9: do things, by adapting policies that will actually fuel growth.

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Speaker 9: These are very important and again in relation to know

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Speaker 9: income countries and countries are actually coming under a serious

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Speaker 9: crunch of debt, and for them to be able to grow,

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Speaker 9: they need to invest. And for them to invest, we

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Speaker 9: need to restructure their debt and allow them access to

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Speaker 9: money that they can then fuel their own growth, which

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Speaker 9: will help rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much, David Gubinstein. What do you worry

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Speaker 2: about the most in twenty twenty four? There are many

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Speaker 2: things to worry about.

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Speaker 11: Well, I worry about everything, but I would say the

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Speaker 11: most important thing I wanted to convey is that predictions

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Speaker 11: made in jan worry about what's going to happen the

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Speaker 11: of the year is generally wrong. Last year, at this

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Speaker 11: time here and other forums around the world, people were

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Speaker 11: predicting the US would likely have a hard landing, if

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Speaker 11: not a hard landing, a saft landing, but a saft

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Speaker 11: landing implies very low growth. As it turns out, while

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Speaker 11: the numbers aren't really in yet, the US will have

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Speaker 11: grown probably around two and a half percent for twenty

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Speaker 11: twenty three, which is much better than anybody really projected

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Speaker 11: at the time. The US has its challenges, for sure,

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Speaker 11: but inflation is coming down and as a result of that,

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Speaker 11: the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce interest rates relatively

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Speaker 11: in the near future. In our country, we have a

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Speaker 11: presidential election. I think everybody probably recognizes that, and as

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Speaker 11: a result, the Federal Reserve wants to get its I

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Speaker 11: think once, to get rate cuts out of the way

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Speaker 11: before the presidential election is in full steam, because if

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Speaker 11: you have president, if you have rate cuts in right

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Speaker 11: before a presidential election, it will be seen as helping

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Speaker 11: the candidate who's in the White House because it'll gin

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Speaker 11: up the economy, is the theory, and so the Republican

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Speaker 11: nominee would not be happy with that. So the Fed

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Speaker 11: is going to get three rate cuts in or more

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Speaker 11: this year, as I expect it will. It will have

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Speaker 11: to get those done relatively in the first quarter, certainly

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Speaker 11: in the first half, so you can expect to see

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Speaker 11: rate cuts and that will probably drive the US economy

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Speaker 11: During presidential election years. The US economy is generally does

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Speaker 11: pretty well. We tend not to be in recessions in

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Speaker 11: presidential election years because Congress spends a lot of money

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Speaker 11: and the FED tends to be relatively easy on monetary policy.

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Speaker 11: During presidential election years. The biggest risk for the US

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Speaker 11: economy is the usual risk that everybody has or are we

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Speaker 11: going to be in a war somewhere something like that.

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Speaker 11: Is there going to be another pandemic? But it's really

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Speaker 11: like we look in the mirror and the enemy is us,

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Speaker 11: because the biggest risk we really have is a dysfunction

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Speaker 11: of the US government. Our inability to pass appropriation bills

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Speaker 11: that fund the government on time, the inability of the

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Speaker 11: deal with the debt limit issues on time. Those are

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Speaker 11: the biggest things that worry me. Whether at some point

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Speaker 11: the US government just can't get these issues done because

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Speaker 11: of the political problems we have in the country, and

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Speaker 11: as a result, I worry more about that than other things.

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Speaker 11: In terms of the US economy going forward, we will

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Speaker 11: have a presidential election year, and almost everything every candidate

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Speaker 11: will say will probably not be true about what will

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Speaker 11: happen in the future because they probably won't be able

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Speaker 11: to get done what they say they're going to get done.

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Speaker 8: But it will be interesting to watch.

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Speaker 2: But David, a number of number of leaders have expressed

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Speaker 2: concern of what Donald Trump and the White House means

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Speaker 2: for fragmentation for foreign policy. Is there any way that

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world can trump proof their economies.

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Speaker 11: If somebody has a way to do that, I think

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Speaker 11: they should patent it and probably sell it to somebody else.

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Speaker 8: It'd be very difficult to do.

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Speaker 11: Clearly, the biggest political change that occurred in the United

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Speaker 11: States last year also was unpredictable or unpredicted. I should

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Speaker 11: say I don't think anybody outside of the Trump family

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Speaker 11: would have predicted that Donald Trump would be indicted four

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Speaker 11: times ninety one counts on various indictments, and that his

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Speaker 11: popularity would soar to the point where he has a

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Speaker 11: reasonably good chance of locking up the Republican nomination by March,

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Speaker 11: which is earlier than almost any contested presidential candidate has

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Speaker 11: been able to lock up the Republican nomination. If he

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Speaker 11: is nominated, be the first time ever that a Republican

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Speaker 11: party has nominated the same person three times in a row.

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Speaker 8: He clearly has a following.

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Speaker 11: That many of the analysts missed, and I don't think

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Speaker 11: any of the court cases are likely to change his momentum.

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Speaker 11: So I think people should recognize that he's a serious

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Speaker 11: political force and should not discount the fact that he

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Speaker 11: could well be elected again, despite the fact that many

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Speaker 11: people in Europe where we are now are not really

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Speaker 11: his biggest fans, and so I wouldn't rule out his

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Speaker 11: possibly getting elected again. Joe Biden shouldn't be discounted. Obviously,

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Speaker 11: we have two older candidates. People have suggested to me

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Speaker 11: that I should run for president. I say, I'm only

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Speaker 11: seventy four, and you need to be older to run.

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Speaker 11: But I do think, to be very serious, it'll be

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Speaker 11: a relatively close election.

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Speaker 8: The final comment is, in our country, in.

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Speaker 11: The last two presidential elections, forty five states out of

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Speaker 11: the fifty voted exactly the same way in each of

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Speaker 11: those two elections.

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Speaker 8: Only five states voted differently.

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Speaker 11: Those five states are Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

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Speaker 11: Those five states are the only ones that vote voted

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Speaker 11: differently in those two elections. Right now, Donald Trump has

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Speaker 11: ahead all five of those states. He lost all five

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Speaker 11: of those states last time. Hillary Clinton lost those five

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Speaker 11: states as well. Biden won them last time. So if

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Speaker 11: everything will get down to those five states and right now,

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Speaker 11: if the election were held today, it would be difficult

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Speaker 11: to see how Trump would lose that election today. But

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Speaker 11: it's a long way away. And the most important thing

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Speaker 11: you can tell about presidential elections in our country is

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Speaker 11: things change all the time, and we won't know for sure,

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Speaker 11: probably until a couple about a month before the election

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Speaker 11: where it's really going to go.

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Speaker 3: So how should you prepare?

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Speaker 2: And again, how difficult is it as a finance minister.

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Speaker 1: To look at models?

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Speaker 2: This is for Minister Liner for how difficult is it

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Speaker 2: to look at models to forecast given all the crises,

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Speaker 2: given the elections, and actually you don't really know what

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Speaker 2: you're left.

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Speaker 3: With in twelve months.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think we are talking too much about Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump in Europe and we should be prepare ourselves for

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Speaker 7: a possible second term for Donald Trump by fostering our

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Speaker 7: European competitiveness.

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Speaker 3: Doing our homework.

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Speaker 7: Is the best preparation for a possible second term of

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: And this includes our.

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Speaker 7: Capabilities to defend ourselves. Being an attractive partner on eye

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Speaker 7: level when it comes to the economic situation and it

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Speaker 7: comes to a fair burden sharing under the roof of

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Speaker 7: NATO is the best we can do to be in

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Speaker 7: a good partnership with the United States. And then it

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Speaker 7: doesn't matter which administration. If we are attractive, if we

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Speaker 7: do not have to ask others because we have capabilities ourselves,

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Speaker 7: is the best way to cooperate. And this is completely

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Speaker 7: for both possible outcomes of the election in the United

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Speaker 7: States doing our homework, Madame Miguel, I'd love.

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Speaker 5: To follow up on not Christian I'm saying, I think

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Speaker 5: the best defense, if that's the way we want to

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Speaker 5: look at it, is attack, and to attack properly, you

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Speaker 5: need to be strong at home. So being strong means

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Speaker 5: having a strong deep market, having a real single market,

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Speaker 5: and we should be expecting some suggestions by Enricolita, former

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Speaker 5: Prime Minister of Italy, who is in charge of producing

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Speaker 5: this report on how we can deepen and improve the

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Speaker 5: functioning of that single market, which is a huge economic

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Speaker 5: zone in the world, but which is not completely a

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Speaker 5: single market yet, as many CEOs I'm sure experience on

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Speaker 5: a daily basis.

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Speaker 1: And we should more importantly make.

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Speaker 5: Sure that the money that is saved in Europe, or

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Speaker 5: the money that is associated with pension is actually invested

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Speaker 5: in a capital market union that actually functions efficiently to

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Speaker 5: rally the investment that we badly need for the transition

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Speaker 5: towards a greener economy which relies certainly for a period

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Speaker 5: of time on fossile fuel, but less so as was

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Speaker 5: indicated in the last COP twenty eight and moves towards

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Speaker 5: renewable where investment is badly needed.

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Speaker 7: Madam, just one little aspect, because I am grateful that

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Speaker 7: Christine has mentioned the Capital Markets Union. I'm concerned that

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Speaker 7: some policymakers in the European Union tend to follow the

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Speaker 7: United States to subsidize almost everything. But we have to

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Speaker 7: avoid a subsidy US we cannot afford. I'm curious of

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Speaker 7: the next US administration can continue the way they support

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Speaker 7: the economy. I wonder if it's sustainable to pay.

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Speaker 3: So high subsidies. Why.

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Speaker 7: What we have to do is to improve our framework

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Speaker 7: conditions for our economies and to make further progress and

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Speaker 7: Capital Markets Union. Our competitive disadvantage compared to the US

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Speaker 7: is not subsidies, it's the function of our private capital market.

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Speaker 3: Mister President.

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Speaker 2: Singapore is, of course a country that does well when

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Speaker 2: the world is working well together, less well when China

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Speaker 2: and the US are falling apart. So what's your take

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Speaker 2: on this US China stress.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think the US China relationship is the central

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Speaker 4: access of tension when you look at the largest problems

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Speaker 4: we face in the world, and it has to be

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Speaker 4: ref fashioned into the central access of partnership. They look

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Speaker 4: at each other fundamentally as adversaries, and then they look

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Speaker 4: for opportunities to cooperate within that framework.

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Speaker 3: It has to be flipped around.

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Speaker 4: Fundamentally, they have to be partners because the challenges that

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Speaker 4: they both face.

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Speaker 3: Are the same.

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Speaker 4: Climate change, a lack of global order, a breaking up

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Speaker 4: of the global trading system. There challenges that both of

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Speaker 4: them face, and both of them will suffer for it,

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Speaker 4: and the two are absolutely essential to any solution to climate,

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Speaker 4: to peace and to an open global trading system. And

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Speaker 4: then within that you can argue, you can badger, you

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Speaker 4: can ensure fac competition, you can ensure that.

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Speaker 3: There's a way of dealing with each.

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Speaker 4: Other that's consistent with the principles or.

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Speaker 3: Witness and fair plea.

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Speaker 4: But we've got to flip things around where you're not

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Speaker 4: fundamentally adversaries to one where you're fundamentally partners, and then

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Speaker 4: you argue about specifics. That's the fundamental repositioning that's required.

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Speaker 4: So it's not just about a pause in the relationship.

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Speaker 4: It's really about a repositioning in the relationship.

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Speaker 2: Doctor and Goozie, what are if we move it forward?

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Speaker 2: There are three four pillars that we need to put

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Speaker 2: in place. To foster growth, and I don't know whether

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Speaker 2: this year there will be a lot of distractions that

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Speaker 2: keep us further away from that goal. But what would

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Speaker 2: you focus on to bring back longer sustainable growth.

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Speaker 6: Well, thank you, and I just wanted to say that

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Speaker 6: I strongly support what Christian and Christine said. I think

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Speaker 6: the best way to be prepared in the work for

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Speaker 6: any eventuality is to focus on those.

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Speaker 3: Things you need to do.

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Speaker 6: Anyway, for me at the WTO, I don't read about

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Speaker 6: who is going to come or what is happening. Maybe

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Speaker 6: that's an overstatement, but in a way, it's focusing on

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Speaker 6: what do we need to do to strengthen and reform

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Speaker 6: the organization so that whatever the circumstances will be able

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Speaker 6: to deliver what is supposed to deliver for people. So

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Speaker 6: if we keep doing that, I think that's a strong

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Speaker 6: and a bit of offense in that regard. But with

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Speaker 6: respect to what are the pillars we should look at

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Speaker 6: for restoring growth, I think that's a very good conversation

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Speaker 6: because we focus a lot on the pessimistic things that

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Speaker 6: might happen, but there are some bright shoots that I

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Speaker 6: want to talk about. On the trade side. First, I

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Speaker 6: want to mention that in spite of all the uncertainties

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Speaker 6: that we talk about and I pointed to in the beginning,

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Speaker 6: trade has been largely resilient. It is because of trade

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Speaker 6: that Europe was able to find other sources of energy

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Speaker 6: from the UN and the Golf and elsewhere to make

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Speaker 6: up for the withdrawal of energy from Russia.

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Speaker 3: It's because of trade.

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Speaker 6: That thirty five countries dependent on the Black Sea region

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Speaker 6: from Africa, we're able to find alternative sources of green fertilizer.

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Speaker 6: So trade has been a force for resilience. And there

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Speaker 6: are some bright spots in trade that we need to

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Speaker 6: be consciouself. There's digital trade and services trade is growing fast,

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Speaker 6: especially digitally delivered services trade growing at eight percent perannum.

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Speaker 6: And that is a very very interesting thing because now

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Speaker 6: we're all talking of digital platforms AI and this is

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Speaker 6: a positive sign and we should be preparing ourselves to say,

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Speaker 6: how do we support such trade, how do we make

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Speaker 6: sure that it benefits small and medium enterprises, women and

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Speaker 6: those at the margin. Green trade has tripled from two

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Speaker 6: thousand to now tripled in value to one point nine

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Speaker 6: trillion dollars. That's another opportunity and Finally, I want to

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Speaker 6: say that the reshaping of supply chains, I see that

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Speaker 6: as an opportunity and not a challenge.

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Speaker 8: And when you see.

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Speaker 6: It as an opportunity, it could help us look at

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Speaker 6: other sources of growth.

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Speaker 3: If you take just.

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Speaker 6: One supply chain that we talked about here, the critical

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Speaker 6: minerals and critical raw materials supply chain, we have the

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Speaker 6: possibility that these critical raw materials are found in many

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Speaker 6: developing countries who did not benefit as much from the

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Speaker 6: first phase of integration into the global economy.

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Speaker 1: There's nine chance to.

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Speaker 6: Bring them in through developing these supply chains in place,

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Speaker 6: because they have two advantages, not only the raw materials

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Speaker 6: but also green edgy. So combining those two and I'm

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Speaker 6: glad to say that Chancellor Shultz and Europe has got

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Speaker 6: onto this. You can go to Africa, Latin America and

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Speaker 6: develop these supply chains, bring in new sources of growth,

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Speaker 6: create new employment, lift people up from poverty in these countries.

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Speaker 6: So those are some good opportunities that are out there.

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Speaker 10: Some hope David.

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Speaker 11: Trade on trade, whoever is elected president, is not likely

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Speaker 11: to enter into a lot of trade agreements. The word

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Speaker 11: trade in the United States or trade agreements is almost

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Speaker 11: a curse word.

446
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 3: Now.

447
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 11: The man somebody who's in the audience here, Mike Frohman,

448
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 11: who negotiated the TPP agreement under President Omama, that couldn't

449
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 11: even get a vote in the United States Congress. And

450
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 11: I don't think any major trade agreement could be approved

451
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 11: by our current Congress, and I don't think it's going

452
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 11: to change for a while, no matter who the president is. Unfortunately,

453
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 11: because trade is often seen by certain constituencies in the United

454
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 11: States as favoring jobs offshore and not really is very

455
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 11: not popular at all. Even Hillary Clinton, when she was

456
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 11: running for president, was against the TPP, even though it

457
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 11: had been negotiated by Democratic administration in which she had served.

458
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 11: On US China US China is the most important bilatal

459
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 11: relationship in the world, there's no doubt about it. But

460
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 11: there is no political benefit in the United States about

461
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 11: saying anything beneficial or good about China or in a

462
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 11: presidential election year. So President Biden and President Trump, I

463
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 11: don't think or either one are going to say we

464
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 11: need to have closer ties with China and I'm going

465
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 11: to be nicer to China than I was before. It's

466
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 11: just not going to happen during a presidential election year,

467
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 11: hopefully after the election's over. The progress has been made

468
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 11: recently at the APEC meeting, can see something blossom, but

469
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 11: I don't think you'll see anything blossom before then, though

470
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 11: hopefully the Chinese will provide some pandas against the United States,

471
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 11: which we desperately would.

472
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 8: Like to have.

473
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: Miss eligident, What are some of the policies that you

474
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 2: think we need to put in place now to make

475
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: sure that there's success four or five years that were

476
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 2: maybe not thinking about as much as we should.

477
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 9: First of all, I would like just to follow up

478
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 9: on this.

479
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 10: I was talking to a US friend.

480
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 9: Yesterday about almost the same subject, and I asked him

481
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 9: whether he is optimistic, and he said, well, at least

482
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 9: it is only four years and someone else would come.

483
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 9: So it would be interesting to see what is going

484
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 9: to happen in the next four years. But more seriously,

485
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 9: I think what needs to be done is looking at

486
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 9: how can you actually mobilize your own resources, how can

487
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 9: you do structural reform? I can tell you from experience,

488
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 9: and I'm not here really to promote What'saudi is doing,

489
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 9: but from experience, what we have done in the last

490
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 9: seven years actually helped us significantly and our resilience to

491
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 9: deal with the multiple shops that we are facing, including

492
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 9: what the current situation geopiratical tension. So structure reforms are

493
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 9: critically important. Local revenue mobilization is actually very important for countries,

494
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 9: and obviously the support of multi latter development institutions to

495
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 9: catalyze private sector investments in developing nations and particularly low

496
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 9: income country is very critical. Catalyzing that is I think

497
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 9: will be and I'm actually very optimistic with the reform

498
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 9: that the World Bank is doing and actually bringing mega

499
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 9: if C and their own IBr D and IDEA together

500
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 9: to make sure that they provide that support and catalyze

501
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 9: more private investments in blow income countries. I think this

502
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 9: is promising and we'd love to see some results.

503
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 2: Actually this year, as a president, you worry about something

504
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: that we're not really talking about, and this.

505
00:29:58,840 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: Is fiscal spending.

506
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: Are we sewing now the seeds to have an even

507
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 2: bigger crisis four, five, six years from now?

508
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 4: Well, I think the most important and most neglected area

509
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 4: of public policy is physical reform. Christian spoke about the

510
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 4: already very high debt levels, so we're starting in the

511
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 4: wrong place. And we're going to have to address challenges

512
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 4: in the future that are going to have to require

513
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 4: more physical investments. We're neglecting the issues because it's never

514
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 4: pleasant to talk about raising revenues or raising taxes. It's

515
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 4: never pleasant to talk about redirecting subsidies or redirecting spending.

516
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 4: So we're just merrely gliding into the future, tinkering at

517
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: the edges. And even the most major international tax reform

518
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 4: of recent years, through the G twenty, was really about

519
00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 4: something very small to do with corporate taxes and rearranging

520
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 4: and reallocating corporate taxes. It's a very small issue compared

521
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 4: to the challenges we really face. The big issues are

522
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 4: how do we address the climate transition, how do we

523
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 4: address the needs of aging societies and broken social security systems,

524
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 4: and how do we address a challenge of a AI

525
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 4: era and ensuring that populations can cope with it and

526
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 4: benefit from it. It's all going to require the public sector.

527
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 4: So if I just take the first, there is no

528
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: realistic solution to the climate transition that does not involve

529
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 4: a globally coordinated system of carbon taxes. There's no realistic

530
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 4: or fair solution that does not involve the globally coordinated

531
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 4: system of carbon taxes and Angoesia. The WTO is coordinating

532
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 4: this with several other international organizations.

533
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: It's still early days. There's a perception that it's unjust,

534
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 3: it's unfair, it'll lead to inflation. In fact, quite the contrary.

535
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 4: If we don't do this, the countries that will suffer

536
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 4: most ultimately are the developing countries. They're going to be

537
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 4: the worst affected by climate change. If we don't do this,

538
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 4: it's ordinary vulnerable communities that will suffer the most. What

539
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 4: we need is a system of carbon taxies coupled with

540
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 4: subsidies for vulnerable households and a stream of funding for

541
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 4: the developing world to allow them to engage in investments

542
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 4: in mitigation and adaptation that allows them to keep growing.

543
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 3: And that's a real opportunity.

544
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 4: It's a fast solution and it's the only realistic solution,

545
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 4: and we can't keep ducking in. Second, there's a huge

546
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 4: opportunity of redirecting subsidies. The IMF is estimated that about

547
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 4: one point three trillion dollars is spent each year in

548
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 4: fuel subsidies. That's about five times more the amount of

549
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 4: subsidies that go into green technologies and green energy.

550
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 3: We've got to redirect it.

551
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 4: Redirect those fuel subsidies to helping vulnerable households, to helping

552
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 4: firms to adjust, and to spurring renewables and other green technologies.

553
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 4: That's a major redirection. It's fair, it's sustainable, and it's realistic.

554
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: It has to be achieved.

555
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: The third issue that's maybe the most neglected is preparing

556
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 4: for engaging society with confidence, and it means rejigging in

557
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 4: significant ways of social security systems and healthcare financing systems.

558
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 3: It's not sustainable. Too many people who don't need.

559
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 4: Support are getting support, and too many people who need

560
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 4: support the most in healthcare systems are not getting enough support.

561
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: So there has to be a reshaping.

562
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 4: Of that curve of subsidies within healthcare to benefit those

563
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 4: who need it the most.

564
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 3: There has to be more spending on.

565
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 4: Preventive or preemptive healthcare spending to help people stay healthy

566
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 4: for as long as for as long as they can,

567
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 4: rather than wait for the very expensive occasions when they

568
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 4: have to end up in hospital, particularly for acute care.

569
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 4: So fundamental reform to healthcare and fundamental reform to labor

570
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 4: markets to allow people to stay engaged at work if

571
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 4: they wish for as long as possible. Those are very

572
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 4: important shifts in social policy. So we have to get real.

573
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: The challenges we face are different from the past. We're

574
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 4: not going to address them by just stinkering around the

575
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 4: edges with rearranging corporate taxes and the like. It requires

576
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 4: raising taxes to take on the climate transition. It requires

577
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 4: redirecting subsidies to be fair and to ensure that as

578
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 4: we age, no one is vulnerable and we can actually

579
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: sustain high quality healthcare systems and social security systems. It

580
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 4: requires change, and we discussed this very value. We have

581
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 4: your five current and form of finance ministers have gone

582
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: through years of discussion at the G two and T

583
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 4: at the IMAF. We spend a lot of time talking

584
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 4: about monetary policy. We spend very little time talking about

585
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 4: fiscal policy reforms for a more secure future.

586
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 11: On that, can I just say on that point in

587
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 11: fiscal reform in the United States very difficult to do.

588
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 11: We now have thirty four trillion dollars of debt. Thirty

589
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 11: four trillion dollars of debt, the interest on it is

590
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 11: approaching our defense budget, and if we don't resolve this

591
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 11: in the near future, something's going to happen to the dollar.

592
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 11: The dollar has been the only reserve currency for quite

593
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 11: some time, but if the United States can't get its

594
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 11: fiscal act together, at some point, people are going to

595
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 11: do what they did to the British pound and the

596
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 11: Dutch guild. There are years ago when too much money

597
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 11: was borrowed by those countries and that their currency didn't

598
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 11: become as valuable and therefore or lost its reserve status.

599
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 11: The US doesn't have any real challenger right now to

600
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 11: reserve currency status for the dollar, but it will if

601
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 11: it keeps doing what it's doing. We have one hundred

602
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 11: and twenty two percent of our GDP and debt, and

603
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 11: we are each year our budget deficit is probably about

604
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 11: twenty five percent of our spending and we just can't

605
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 11: keep doing that. But there is nobody in the United

606
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 11: States government that I see is really seriously addressing that problem.

607
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 11: But it will be a big problem in the not

608
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 11: too distant future.

609
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 3: Thank you, doctor and Gozi.

610
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 6: Well, maybe you're pointing to me because I was not

611
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 6: in so much when Tomman was talking, and that's why

612
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 6: he's a favorite.

613
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 3: I mean, we have.

614
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 6: To look at what we need to do on the

615
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 6: physical side to finance the green transition. The money is uncoming.

616
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 6: The amounts are huge and the trillions needed. You know,

617
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,840
Speaker 6: you take Africa for instance, it needs one hundred and

618
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 6: ninety billion dollars to finance a year up to twenty

619
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 6: thirty to finance the green transition. What is it getting

620
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 6: now minute amounts?

621
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:05,280
Speaker 3: How is it going to be raised?

622
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 1: So we have to.

623
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,479
Speaker 6: Think of sensible things like how do we raise that money?

624
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 6: So that's one. The second is business. They're facing a

625
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 6: lot of regulatory fragmentation. There are seventy three different taxing

626
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 6: and pricing regimes in.

627
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 3: The world today.

628
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 6: They are confused when they go from one country to

629
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,319
Speaker 6: the other, they have to think about a different way

630
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 6: and a different system.

631
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: So how do we bring this together?

632
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 6: So if we have a common methodology or framework for

633
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 6: a global carbon pricing regime, I think that will help,

634
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 6: and then we can use some of those resources that

635
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 6: would be raised to help finance the green transition in

636
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 6: those vulnerable countries that don't.

637
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: Have the resources.

638
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 6: So that was why I was not in so vigorously,

639
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 6: and I think developed thin countries need to get behind

640
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 6: it now. The international financial institutions have all been working

641
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 6: on this in parallel, the IMF, the World Bank, the

642
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:15,240
Speaker 6: WT or the OECD. And finally we are coming together

643
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 6: in one task force to try to see if we

644
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 6: can put all our energies together and develop a common

645
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 6: methodology of framework. We know that not every country is

646
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 6: going to have a combon price or taxed. The US

647
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 6: will never do it. They will approach it through regulation

648
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 6: and subsidies and other means. But once we have a

649
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,959
Speaker 6: common framework, we can all measure what we are doing

650
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 6: against that, and more importantly, we can transfer some of

651
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 6: the resources raised to help finance the green transitions. So

652
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 6: thank you for reasing that money doctrine.

653
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 2: Does I know you have to leave in a couple

654
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: of minutes because you have an important meeting. So the

655
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 2: very quick question to you, why has it been so slow?

656
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: Is it because we're distracted with other crises? And are

657
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: you confident that actually all of this is going in

658
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: the right direction.

659
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 6: Well, it's so slow because I mean when you talk

660
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 6: of raising taxes of rise, it's never a popular subject

661
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 6: anywhere As Starmann said, you have so many former present

662
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 6: finance ministers on the panel.

663
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: We know what this means.

664
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 6: It's politically difficult to talk about raising taxes. It's also

665
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 6: politically difficult to phase out subsidies. We tried it when

666
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 6: I was in a finance minister in Nigeria and we

667
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 6: wanted to phase out our subsidies.

668
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: We went half way, but.

669
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 6: It was very politically sensitive. So that is why you

670
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 6: don't tear great enthusiasm when you talk about raising taxes

671
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 6: or facing out subsidies. But I think the world we

672
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 6: need to take some hard decisions. You cannot have a

673
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 6: situation in which you have one point two trillion dollars

674
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 6: in fossil world subsidies. A lot of it is in

675
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 6: developed countries, by the way, not developing, and then we

676
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 6: are trying to look for peanuts for a lots of

677
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 6: damage fund. You have of US six hundred billion, intrigue

678
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 6: is starting agricultural subsidies and we are looking for peanuts

679
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 6: for a lost and damage fund. When we get two

680
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 6: hundred billion, we're all happy.

681
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 1: We need to take those hard.

682
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 6: Decisions, but they are not being done because it's politically difficult,

683
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 6: and politicians we look at the short term horizon.

684
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 1: They want to be re elected.

685
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 10: Right, that's the problem.

686
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

687
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 3: Doctrine goes you know you have to you have to go.

688
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: Minister Outja Dan.

689
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 9: I think a few points and I listen to mister

690
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 9: President and we spoke briefly before.

691
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 10: We came on stage.

692
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 9: I would like, first of all, I think let's us

693
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 9: agree that climate change is real, risks from climate change

694
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 9: are real, and we should work all together to find

695
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 9: solutions that would help the planet and the livelihood of people.

696
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 9: I think we are all in agreement. I remember in

697
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 9: twenty fourteen when Betris Agreement was reached, developing developed nations

698
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 9: have committed one hundred billion dollars annually for developed countries

699
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 9: to deal with climate change and for them to transition

700
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 9: out of carbon intensive energy. What have we seen so far?

701
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 9: Almost zero? Almost zero. And I can understand mister President's

702
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 9: enthusiasm about carbon tax and how it may change the equation.

703
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 9: But then he linked to two things subsidies to those who.

704
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 10: Are in need. I agree, whenever you raise.

705
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 9: Cost on your community or others, you need to look

706
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 9: out for the less fortunate and provide social safety.

707
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 10: That agreed.

708
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 9: The second caveat Master President said is we need to

709
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 9: find a way that we channel part of that to

710
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 9: low income countries.

711
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 10: We tried that and it failed.

712
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 9: Now, so trying something else similar to what you have

713
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 9: tried before and expect different results, it's very difficult. There

714
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 9: are a lot of political resistance from developed nations politically internally.

715
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 9: I mean you have heard just now some of the comments.

716
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 9: So to say that we will put the tax, but

717
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 9: then we will direct some of it to low income

718
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:59,280
Speaker 9: countries is going to be very difficult politically, extremely difficult. Third,

719
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 9: I would just remind ourselves that why we are enjoying

720
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:08,840
Speaker 9: the hated conference place here, there are over six hundred

721
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 9: million people in Africa that have no basic electricity, not

722
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 9: intermitted basic, absolutely no electricity. So to say to them

723
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 9: go and eat cake, why are you looking for a

724
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 9: bread is hypocrasy in my opinion.

725
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 10: They have their own own endowment.

726
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 9: You should help them get that endowment from under their

727
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 9: feet gas for example, Let them fuel their own transition,

728
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 9: allow them to use their own endowment, help them to

729
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 9: use their youth, embower their youth, riskill their youth, train

730
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 9: their youth.

731
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 10: That is really what is going to change.

732
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 9: Africa and other blow income countries.

733
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Thank you so much, Minister Lenner.

734
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 7: I hope nobody tells my coalition partners and colleagues in

735
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 7: cabinet that we are here considering raising taxes would cause

736
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 7: serious problems for me domestically. Seriously, I would like to

737
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 7: winden the perspective a bit. I completely share the idea

738
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 7: of fighting a global warming by ambitious action, but we

739
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 7: should think about the the right methodology. I think there

740
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 7: is an alternative to carbon tax and the alternative is

741
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 7: a carbon market. In Germany, it is extremely costly to

742
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 7: avoid further emissions, and I wonder if the same amount

743
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 7: of money we have to spend in Germany would have

744
00:44:56,360 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 7: an even better effect on other places at other places

745
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 7: on the world. For example, to invest in electricity production

746
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 7: in Africa with renewable energy as part of a compensation

747
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:22,879
Speaker 7: of a germ steel industry and for their emissions could

748
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 7: have globally better effect with lower investment. And it doesn't

749
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 7: matter where carbon dioxide is emitted.

750
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 3: It is a global challenge.

751
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 7: So probably we should ask OCD to work on a

752
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 7: common framework for a global carbon market, as they did

753
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 7: successfully on the global minimum taxation. If I'm allowed to,

754
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 7: I would like to add a second remark.

755
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 3: To find all our needs.

756
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 7: For transition, fighting poverty, and to prepare for.

757
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: The aging society.

758
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 7: Either, I think there ares a bronze solution, given the demographics,

759
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 7: given the investment needs.

760
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 8: I think we have.

761
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 7: To foster our productivity and this is why I'm advocating

762
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 7: for structural reforms in the labor markets, in technology, cutting

763
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 7: a red tape, being more competitive when it comes to

764
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 7: corporate taxation, and well, obviously I'm talking about the former

765
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:45,720
Speaker 7: genda of Germany, but I think others have to face

766
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 7: similar challenges. We in Germany we have to do our

767
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 7: homework and probably we are part of the model because

768
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 7: others have similar challenges.

769
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 3: We had to to solve.

770
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 7: Our debt and deficit issues, which has made me becoming

771
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 7: the loneliest minister in cabinet.

772
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 3: But we succeeded to sort our dead.

773
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 7: Issues and now we have to strengthen the supply side.

774
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 7: And I know what some of you are thinking, Germany

775
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 7: probably the sick man.

776
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 3: Germany is not the sick man.

777
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:32,399
Speaker 7: Germany is after very successful period since twenty twelve and

778
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 7: these years of crisis.

779
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:35,799
Speaker 8: Germany is.

780
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 7: A tired man after a short night, and the low

781
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 7: growth expectations are probably a wake up call.

782
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 8: And now we have a.

783
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 7: Good cup of coffee which means structural reforms and then

784
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 7: we will be continuing to succeed economically.

785
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:00,399
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

786
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: We only have five minutes left, so I'm going to

787
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 2: call on Madame La Gabe and then David's our President

788
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 2: and minister.

789
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 3: So thank you very much.

790
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 5: I would like to flag a couple of areas where

791
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 5: I think there can be hope and they can be

792
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 5: trust if we deliver. And I'd like to start with

793
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 5: two observations as a follow up to Tharmen. Your point

794
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 5: is well taken about taxation, Tharmen, but you have in

795
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 5: this panel, in the discussion, we're having a good example

796
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 5: of how difficult it is because tax issues present a

797
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 5: huge hetoogy in eighty whether you're sitting in one country

798
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 5: or the other, you can have a tax burden of

799
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 5: fifty percent of GDP or ten percent of GDP and

800
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 5: you're starting from a completely different picture, so that should

801
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 5: be taken into account. Second, there are currently instruments that

802
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 5: have been laboriously negotiated at the OECD level to put

803
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 5: in place those two pillars, one that institutes a minimum

804
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 5: corporate taxation and the other one that proposes to allocate

805
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 5: profits of large corporates around the world on the basis

806
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 5: of where the activity is generated. These agreements have been

807
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 5: approved at the OECD level.

808
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,720
Speaker 1: They just need to be ratified, So it's there.

809
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 5: Let's get on with it and move because otherwise we

810
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 5: will move to more fragmentation of tax and we are

811
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 5: seeing it with the carbon tax border adjustment here and there,

812
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 5: and that would be more cacophony added to the risk

813
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 5: that we see. And that takes me to my second

814
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 5: area where I think there is hope if I'm sorry

815
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 5: that and Goozie had to go because it touches on trade.

816
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,720
Speaker 5: Everybody will agree, no matter how much we talk about deglobalization,

817
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:49,399
Speaker 5: that globalization had massive positive impact in pulling people out

818
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:53,240
Speaker 5: of poverty hundreds of millions. If we listen to ij

819
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 5: Banga from the World Bank, this virtuous path on which

820
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 5: we were heading is now best stable, at worst declining

821
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 5: more poverty than less poverty. Well, if we look at

822
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 5: trade and the decoupling or the deer risking, however we want.

823
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 3: To call it, it.

824
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:13,360
Speaker 1: Implies two things.

825
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,800
Speaker 5: One, there will be different and new sources of supply

826
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 5: and new patterns of trade number one. Number two, because

827
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 5: there is more vulnerability associated with supply it may well

828
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 5: be that the cost will be higher in the long term,

829
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 5: and maybe that's not such a bad thing. Maybe we've

830
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 5: been relying on this principle of efficiency over security a

831
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:41,240
Speaker 5: little bit too much, assuming that everything has virtually no cost,

832
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 5: assuming that labor cost had to be minimal and reduced

833
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 5: over the.

834
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 1: Course of time.

835
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 5: Well, this can change, and maybe can change for the

836
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 5: better to bring those people who had the benefit of

837
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 5: globalization and were taken out of poverty also out of

838
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 5: this recessing poverty that is at risk of bringing some

839
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 5: of them down again. So I see a lot of

840
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 5: positives on those two fronts. I had a few other items,

841
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 5: but I'll save them for next year.

842
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 11: So David and then naraphrase President in my country, ask

843
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 11: not what the World Economic Forum can do for you,

844
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:16,720
Speaker 11: but what you can do for the World Economic Forum?

845
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 8: Now, what do I mean by that? The purpose of

846
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 8: the forum?

847
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 11: And I can't speak for it, because Klaus is the

848
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 11: person who is really the most responsible will be able

849
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 11: to speak for it. But I can say that the

850
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 11: purpose of for this purpose is to inspire people. What

851
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 11: we've tried to do in this panel and in other

852
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 11: panels around the world economic form is inspire people and

853
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,240
Speaker 11: educate people, and hopefully when you go back to your country,

854
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 11: you'll educate yourself about some of the things that we

855
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 11: talked about here that you might be inspired to learn

856
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 11: more about and try to pick one issue of the

857
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 11: ones we talked about where you make yourself not only

858
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:54,359
Speaker 11: well educated about it, better educated than now, but try

859
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 11: to make some difference in your own country to try

860
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 11: to bring some forward some of these ideas. Because the

861
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 11: only way we're really going to be effective the World

862
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 11: Economic Forum is we have people that come to these sessions,

863
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 11: and those people are watching on streaming. They are going

864
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 11: to take these ideas and do something useful with them

865
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 11: by working in their own countries to kind of educate

866
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 11: people about these things. And that's what I really hope

867
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 11: all of you will do is take something away from

868
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,399
Speaker 11: this session and say, I am now inspired to learn

869
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 11: more about this issue or that issue, and I'm going

870
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 11: to try to do something in my country to make

871
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 11: it more likely that that will happen.

872
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 8: Thank you, Thank you.

873
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 2: In thirty seconds or one minute, mister president, what are

874
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 2: you positive about?

875
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 4: I agree entirely that we need combon markets. That itself

876
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 4: is a complex endeavor, but we need to develop it,

877
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,840
Speaker 4: and we need to make it global. It's not a

878
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 4: substitute for cobbon taxes. For very simple reason. Governments are

879
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 4: going to have to invest significantly more than they've invested before.

880
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 4: We won the private sector to fund most of the transition,

881
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 4: but about a third of the investment is going to

882
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 4: have to come from government because of externality and other reasons.

883
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 3: It has to be funded.

884
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 4: It has to be funded, and there's no magical thinking here.

885
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 4: Funding requires taxes of one form or another.

886
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:12,879
Speaker 3: The alternative is more and more borrowing.

887
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 4: Which Christian will be the first to agree is not sustainable.

888
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:19,800
Speaker 4: So let's not duckt the issue. Our real challenge is political.

889
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 4: It is unpopular to raise any taxes. You have to

890
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 4: design taxes together with subsidies so as to make it

891
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 4: acceptable and fair, and that's the task of finance ministers.

892
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 4: And we've got to coordinate this as much as possible

893
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 4: globally so there are no leakages. Design taxes and subsidies

894
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 4: so that we can get ahead on this invest at

895
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 4: a higher level and make it fair for ordinary people

896
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 4: the developing world. I quite agree with both al Jadon and.

897
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: Christine. It is an opportunity.

898
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 4: We have the opportunity in fact, of growing green energy

899
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 4: powered industry in parts of the world which have.

900
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 3: Lots of sun and wind.

901
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:14,839
Speaker 4: We have the opportunity of shaping growth strategies that are sustainable.

902
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 4: But it's going to require investment, is going to require

903
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:22,240
Speaker 4: support from the advanced world, going to require a much

904
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 4: enhanced role for the international financial institutions.

905
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 3: We can achieve it.

906
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,359
Speaker 4: So all I'm saying at the end of the day

907
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 4: is our political antennare have gotten too short. We're all

908
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 4: looking at the next elections in a whole range of countries,

909
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 4: and the consequence if we carry on that way is

910
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 4: going to be much more pain in future and a

911
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 4: much higher hurdle that future politicians.

912
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 3: Will need to cross. So let's start moving now.

913
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 4: Face things in realistically, make sure that it's fair and just,

914
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 4: and avoid piling up a large problem for the future.

915
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for SPRESO.

916
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 2: You got the Optimistic Guide to twenty twenty four and

917
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 2: the Pessimistic Guide to twenty twenty.

918
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:06,479
Speaker 3: Four and beyond.

919
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: Thank you so much to all of our panelists.