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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're all for running again,

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Speaker 2: so smooth, so sweet, slid sixteen just glorious text procution. Guys,

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Speaker 2: all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 2: why you see yours beautiful tis. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 2: the most dangerous mountain of the planet. Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up along.

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Speaker 3: Its left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled, confused?

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Speaker 2: How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba.

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Speaker 4: Joining me night is my buddy and colleague Anthony Dubundo.

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Speaker 4: BJ Cunningham and his wife welcomed their first kit, Maddox Cunningham,

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Speaker 4: to the world the other day. So BJ is off

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Speaker 4: And if you haven't heard, we did a special podcast

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Speaker 4: this morning. This today's Wednesday. This is a Thursday release obviously,

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Speaker 4: but on Wednesday morning we spoke with the pre eminent

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Speaker 4: newsbreaker in the world when it comes to soccer and transfers,

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Speaker 4: Fabrizio Romano. He gave us a bunch of information on

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Speaker 4: Killian and Boppe, Gabrielle, jay Zus, Christiano Ronaldo, basically all

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Speaker 4: the big names in the transfer market coming up in

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Speaker 4: a few weeks, so be sure to watch or listen

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Speaker 4: to that on our Wonder Goal YouTube or the Action

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Speaker 4: Network YouTube or the Wonder Goal podcast channel. But this

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Speaker 4: episode we will be looking ahead to the FA Cup

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Speaker 4: Final on Saturday, and then the Premier League weekend ahead

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Speaker 4: Sunday and Monday. Plus we'll we'll touch on some some

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Speaker 4: bets in Europe, the other European leagues we like, Anthony.

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Speaker 4: We'll start though with the FA Cup Final, Liverpool plus

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Speaker 4: one oh five taking on Chelsea plus two sixty, the

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Speaker 4: draw also sitting at plus two sixty. A reminder, if

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Speaker 4: you bet either team on the three way money line

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Speaker 4: and the game goes extra time, you lost that bet, right,

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Speaker 4: You're just something always keep.

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Speaker 1: In mind in these cup competitions.

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Speaker 4: So for me, I think it's it's Chelsea or nothing

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Speaker 4: at the price we've talked about, you know, the Liverpool

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Speaker 4: fatigue factor, and the game's gonna start catching up to

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Speaker 4: them and they start to show some cracks. I mean

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Speaker 4: they go down one nil the villa, they had the

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Speaker 4: draw the game before that, and you know they had

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Speaker 4: to come back against via Reale to make sure they

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Speaker 4: took care of that. Like, so it's just been a

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Speaker 4: whirlwind for Liverpool there. Obviously it's a it's a cup

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Speaker 4: final at Wembley, so it's a huge, huge deal and

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Speaker 4: they're still within you know, they do have a slight, slight,

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Speaker 4: slight chance at winning the quadruple, so they're gonna give

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Speaker 4: it there all there. I think we all expect to

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Speaker 4: really strong starting elevens here, but I just think you're

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Speaker 4: getting Chelsea at a good time. You're going you're still

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Speaker 4: going against Liverpool at.

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Speaker 1: A good time. So it would be Chelsea or nothing

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Speaker 1: for me at the price.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, hard for me to disagree with regards to the side.

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Speaker 3: I mean, let's consider kind of the evolution of this

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Speaker 3: matchup because they have played three times. This is the

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Speaker 3: fourth meeting between Chelsea and Liverpool this season. We all,

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Speaker 3: I believe, had Chelsea the first time these two teams

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Speaker 3: met at and Field in September. Chelsea was a slight

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Speaker 3: road underdog, so they were lined as a better team

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Speaker 3: than Liverpool at the time.

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Speaker 2: That is of course not aged particularly.

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Speaker 3: Well, but Liverpool closed a favorite at Stanford Bridge in

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Speaker 3: the second meeting, and then when they played on a

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Speaker 3: neutral site, Liverpool was plus one thirty on the money line.

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Speaker 3: That was just a couple months ago in February, so

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Speaker 3: now we're here in May Liverpool was now down to

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Speaker 3: plus one oh five. So we are at about the

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Speaker 3: height of the market on Liverpool. I think briefly they

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Speaker 3: were the number one team in my power ratings. Believe

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Speaker 3: it or not, I had them better than City very briefly,

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Speaker 3: and after a couple they got knocked down by the

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Speaker 3: game against Virial and then a pretty black luster performance

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Speaker 3: against Spurs, and then, like I said, it's very close,

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Speaker 3: but I've got them back below City again after City

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Speaker 3: routed Wolves and newcast dominant performances. But as far as

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Speaker 3: this goes, both teams to score is juice now too.

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Speaker 3: I mean the first Cup final was minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: I had it, both teams had over one and a

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Speaker 3: half expected goals, neither team scored. Now it's minus one

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Speaker 3: forty for this match. So Fabinho will not play, it

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Speaker 3: appears for Liverpool that is a bit of a loss.

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Speaker 3: But I genuinely think this game is going to be

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Speaker 3: pretty back and forth and not your traditional cup final.

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Speaker 3: Remember you know the narrative round cup final is, Oh,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be back and forth. It's going to

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Speaker 3: be very tight, very congested cage. Nobody's going to take chances.

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Speaker 3: That was not the case in the care About Cup Final,

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Speaker 3: and I don't think it's gonna be the case on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think Liverpool play that way. Chelsea are

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Speaker 3: more than capable of going up tempo with them and

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Speaker 3: what they.

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Speaker 2: Do really well.

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Speaker 3: I mean they played Verner and Haverts in that last

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Speaker 3: match with Mount that was the front three.

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Speaker 2: Verner's pacing behind was very effective.

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Speaker 3: Haverds especially found some great runs and then Mount with

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Speaker 3: the third man run really broke open Liverpool a couple

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Speaker 3: of times they should have scored. Liverpool did dominate the shots.

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Speaker 3: You expect that. You expect them to get more shots

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Speaker 3: in this game as well. But Chelsea is going to

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Speaker 3: get the better, the bigger scoring chances in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: So I look toward the over here and I think

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Speaker 3: that's the only way I would play this two and

107
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Speaker 3: a half is minus one fifteen. That's where I would look.

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Speaker 3: I also think the bigger pitch at Wembley helps Chelsea

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Speaker 3: because there's more space in behind. It is a little

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Speaker 3: bit wider, a little bit bigger, a little bit longer

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Speaker 3: compared to say Anfield or even Stanford Bridge. So I

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Speaker 3: think that all you know, kind of plays into Chelsea here.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to play probably the over two and

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Speaker 3: a half when we get there come Sunday or Saturday, rather.

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Speaker 2: That that would be my look.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool's defense has shown some cracks. They've been flat five

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Speaker 3: of the last six halves at this point.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think it's now is the time, right,

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Speaker 4: Like we've been saying it all year. We've been wrong

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Speaker 4: all year basically, and now it's just time and you're

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Speaker 4: getting to bet a good team, I guess them, rather

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Speaker 4: than either a mediocre or a poor one. All right,

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Speaker 4: that wraps up the f A Cup Final. Let's move

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Speaker 4: to the Premier League. Full disclosure, we are recording this

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Speaker 4: on Wednesday night, so the North London Derby hasn't happened yet.

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Speaker 4: That'll take place on Thursday afternoon between Spurs and Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: If you want to hear a preview for that, you

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Speaker 4: can go back to our episode that we recorded for

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Speaker 4: on Monday morning. But we will still look at these

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Speaker 4: Spurs Burnley match. That's the first match on Sunday. There

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Speaker 4: are no Premier League matches on Saturday because they cleared

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Speaker 4: the schedule for the FA Cup final. Spurs mnus two

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Speaker 4: ninety five against Burnley plus eight ninety five.

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Speaker 1: The draw here is four to one.

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Speaker 4: No matter what happens in the in the North London Derby.

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Speaker 1: I think you can look at this as a bad

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Speaker 1: spot for.

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Speaker 4: Tottenham right like it's either a letdown spot off a

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Speaker 4: big win or you know, this a leftdown spot off

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Speaker 4: of being eliminated for the Top four challenge, and I like,

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Speaker 4: they just don't They've had they had trouble with Burnley

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Speaker 4: in February. Burnley is a tricky opponent for a team

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Speaker 4: like Spurs that likes to do what basically do what

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Speaker 4: Burnley's built to do, except a hunt one hundred times better,

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Speaker 4: which is absorbed and counter and that's just not gonna

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Speaker 4: be the case here. Burnley will not have much of

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Speaker 4: the ball, although you know they've been a little bit

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Speaker 4: more adventurous under mac Jackson, but they just I don't

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Speaker 4: think that they're gonna be sitting going into this game

150
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Speaker 4: thinking we want the ball they're going to let They're

151
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Speaker 4: gonna let Spurs knock it around and hopefully try to

152
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Speaker 4: catch them going the other way or not gonna set peace.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a big price for a reason.

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Speaker 4: Burnley did look like they came undone a bit against

155
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Speaker 4: aston Villa and that three zero loss. They're missing key

156
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Speaker 4: pieces James Tarkowski, Vedra's out, so it probably won't be

157
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Speaker 4: enough for me to get to this Burnley number. But

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Speaker 4: I'm not even coming close to laying anything with Spurs,

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Speaker 4: So Burnley or nothing for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a strong lean here to Burnley plus

161
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Speaker 2: one and a half.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait to see how the derby plays out,

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Speaker 3: how the market reacts off of that.

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Speaker 2: I think you're right though.

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Speaker 3: I think remember what happened last time Spurs played Burnley

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Speaker 3: and what happened right before that.

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Speaker 2: That was the win over City.

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Speaker 3: They were nine or ten or eleven to one underdogs,

169
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Speaker 3: had the biggest win of their season on the road

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Speaker 3: Manchester in stoppage time, very emotional victory. Three days later,

171
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,080
Speaker 3: they have a makeup fixture at Burnley and it was

172
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Speaker 3: probably their worst and it was their worst performance under

173
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Speaker 3: Antonio Conte for sure. That they've had, and they went

174
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Speaker 3: and they lost one nil on a set piece and

175
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Speaker 3: created like zero point six expected goals. And I think

176
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Speaker 3: Burnley does create matchup problems for Tottenham. And you mentioned

177
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Speaker 3: the Mike Jackson thing, they've been playing more open I'm

178
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Speaker 3: not thinking that's going to be the case here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: look at the opponents they've played, right, like South Pampton, Everton, Watford, like,

180
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Speaker 3: these games are a little different than your game at

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Speaker 3: home against Spurs. So they have not played a real

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Speaker 3: top top side under Jackson, and I think that that

183
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,679
Speaker 3: is where we're going to see them to be a

184
00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,680
Speaker 3: little more conservative, playing for the point, desperate to hold

185
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:48,280
Speaker 3: out for it.

186
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Speaker 2: And I think the.

187
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Speaker 3: Reason that Spurs have these problems is, look, we saw

188
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 3: how impressive Sessignon and Emerson Royal were on the wings

189
00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 3: on Saturday when they were defending and running into space behind.

190
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,720
Speaker 3: But when they get the ball at their feet with

191
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,480
Speaker 3: the you know, eight defenders in front of them, they're

192
00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:12,080
Speaker 3: not great crossers. They're inconsistent passers. Everson especially not a

193
00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 3: great decision maker all the time. They're just inconsistent. And

194
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,520
Speaker 3: what we saw teams have done is they've just said

195
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:18,800
Speaker 3: all right, Emerson, you can have the ball. They're not

196
00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 3: gonna you know, they're gonna dare Emerson to beat them.

197
00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:23,880
Speaker 3: And then he really hasn't always done that. Sometimes he does,

198
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 3: sometimes he doesn't, and so that's a big problem when

199
00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 3: I'm laying a goal and a half, which is what

200
00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,280
Speaker 3: the spread is. And so I like, I like Burnley here,

201
00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 3: especially if Spurs win. I think Spurs win, everybody's gonna

202
00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,440
Speaker 3: be doing there. Okay, they should roll Burnley and roll

203
00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,800
Speaker 3: Norwich and then the pressure's on Arsenal, which is true,

204
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,440
Speaker 3: and I do think Spurs probably win this match. But again,

205
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,040
Speaker 3: it's a very easy path to like a one to

206
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,080
Speaker 3: one draw or say a two to one Spurs kind

207
00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,840
Speaker 3: of win. So I we definitely have a strong lean

208
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:52,920
Speaker 3: towards the one and a half, and I even show

209
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,080
Speaker 3: a little bit of value on it. I've only got

210
00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 3: Spurs at minus two twenty. They're sitting at you know,

211
00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,719
Speaker 3: minus two ninety. We may even see this go up

212
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,160
Speaker 3: if they win, which I think they might on Thursday.

213
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 3: I don't know, but if they do win Thursday, I

214
00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,559
Speaker 3: think this goes up. And I think you can get

215
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:06,680
Speaker 3: Burnley at a good number.

216
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:08,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd agree with that.

217
00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 4: And if they lose, like you could see this number

218
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Speaker 4: come crashing down because people will be onto what I

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Speaker 4: was just talking about with the fact that it's nothing

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Speaker 4: left to play for any more. Huge huge letdown spot.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to City and west Ham.

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Speaker 4: West Ham at home plus seven hundred underdog City minus

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Speaker 4: two seventy. The draw here is four to one. City

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Speaker 4: up three points on Liverpool two to play and now

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Speaker 4: have a pretty decided goal differential advantage. But we do

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Speaker 4: know that Liverpool obviously could score in buckets, so I'm

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Speaker 4: sure that City's not going to wrestle the Laurels with

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Speaker 4: the seven goal advantage. But still, you got to make

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Speaker 4: City big favorites here the bookmakers do to get the title.

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Speaker 4: It worked last week for me and I'm just going

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Speaker 4: to keep doing it. With the way that this offense

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Speaker 4: is clicking. The City team total is where I'm looking

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Speaker 4: over two and a half plus one twenty over three

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Speaker 4: and a half plus three twenty. They just should not

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Speaker 4: have any problems scoring on this west Ham defense. I mean,

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Speaker 4: other teams Wolves scored to tie it up against City

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Speaker 4: today one to one early on, so other teams are

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Speaker 4: having some success against the Citizens but over the last

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Speaker 4: four games going forward, fourteen point one to four expected

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Speaker 4: goals and nineteen goals.

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Speaker 1: The offense is just humming and it just they are.

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Speaker 4: Like I said last week on last week's episode before,

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Speaker 4: as I was making the case for this bet against Wolves,

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Speaker 4: they're still highly incentivized to run up the score. So

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Speaker 4: against a west Ham defense that has just been trending

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Speaker 4: down basically since they beat Liverpool in November, I'm very

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Speaker 4: happy to back City to score over two and a

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Speaker 4: half at a plus number.

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Speaker 1: So that's where I'm looking.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I tweeted this earlier during the match against Wolves.

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Speaker 3: I said, you know, Pet, realizing his defense is going

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Speaker 3: to have problems and turning up the offensive throttle for

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Speaker 3: the last few weeks should make for some fun matches.

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Speaker 2: And that's basically what we got today. I mean it

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Speaker 2: was fun.

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Speaker 3: Mus you're a Wolves fan. By the way, Wolves conceding

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Speaker 3: sixteen goals is it now in their last seven matches,

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Speaker 3: so that that defense has fallen off, cliff As we

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Speaker 3: got one right there. Anyway, as far as City goes, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I would look toward the team total over west Ham

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Speaker 3: is a lot better defensively than Wolves.

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Speaker 2: I think that should be noted.

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Speaker 3: I know that the goals allowed won't tell you that,

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Speaker 3: but when we look at expected goals allowed and ability

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Speaker 3: to absorb pressure, west Ham's just better at it, and

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Speaker 3: they are dangers on the counter attack. I think Laporte

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Speaker 3: is now out, so who's left bernandin you're going to

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Speaker 3: play center back? Nathan Ake is their only healthy center

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Speaker 3: back right now. So it gets a little dicey for City,

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Speaker 3: like if they if they were in the Champions League Final,

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Speaker 3: it would have been really hard to bet them given

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Speaker 3: their injuries now, but they're not, and they.

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Speaker 2: Just need to win this match basically to win the league.

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Speaker 3: So I do think they're going to just open up

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Speaker 3: the throttle and look for goals and so overs again

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Speaker 3: would be the look for me.

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Speaker 4: Wolves, the team you're just talking about, there mights to forty.

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Speaker 4: I gainst already relegated, been relegated for a while. Norch

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Speaker 4: City plus six fifty, the draw plus three sixty. It's

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Speaker 4: really hard to make a case for either of these

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Speaker 4: teams right now, but I will do say this in

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Speaker 4: Norwich's favor. Last five matches for Wolves three and a

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Speaker 4: half expected goals for and like you said, they're giving

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Speaker 4: up goals now. So it's at home, so it's not

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Speaker 4: like Wolves are just gonna lay down and they're quote

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Speaker 4: unquote on the beach. But it's their final home match

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Speaker 4: of the season, so it's not gonna be an unmotivated

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Speaker 4: squad here. These are professional soccer players. However, it's I mean,

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Speaker 4: I have no betting interest in either one of these sides,

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Speaker 4: is what I'm trying to say.

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Speaker 2: And how do you lay a goal and a half

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Speaker 2: with Wolves? Yeah, don't know.

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Speaker 3: The way their attack has been, I mean it's been

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Speaker 3: so bad, and it actually has been better the last

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Speaker 3: two games when they've been able to play on the

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Speaker 3: counter against City and Chelsea. But they're not gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to do that here. That being said, Norwich embarrassed

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Speaker 3: again on the road. They've thrown in the towel and

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Speaker 3: this is the easiest pass maybe of the season for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the next one's pretty easy too.

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Speaker 4: I think Watford plus two twenty five, Leicester plus one

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Speaker 4: to fifteen on the road to draw here plus two.

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Speaker 2: How about those hornets?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Watford an impressed of defensive performance. They did something

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Speaker 4: I didn't expect them to do, which was they basically

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Speaker 4: played for the clean sheet and to do everything they

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Speaker 4: could to end the home losing streak, which I guess

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Speaker 4: I should have saw a comment considering they had nothing

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Speaker 4: else to play for. They're already relegated. Roy Hodgson is

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Speaker 4: a lame duck coach with a new manager coming in,

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Speaker 4: so you know, maybe maybe a blind spot there that

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Speaker 4: I just missed, but they I mean it was it

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Speaker 4: was a fine performance.

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Speaker 1: They're missing so many guys.

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Speaker 4: Their only attacking thread is really Gel Patron right now,

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Speaker 4: so it's really hard to back them even against a

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Speaker 4: lesser team that I just could see completely not showing

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Speaker 4: up in a meaningless game on the road, and they're

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Speaker 4: you know, lesser of course, is a very very flawed

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Speaker 4: team defensively, especially so it's it's another easy pass for

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Speaker 4: me here. If you were, you know, doing a pickup

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Speaker 4: contest or something, I would I would pick Watford at

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Speaker 4: the price, but that's not what we're doing.

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Speaker 3: It is convenient that all their players are now injured

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Speaker 3: now that they're relegated.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was funny today. And how about the market.

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Speaker 3: You know that that was something we talked about on

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Speaker 3: the pod, like I'm gonna bet Watford, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: wait because I Thinkon might get steamed. Of course, now

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Speaker 3: that wasn't just like the oh they have to win

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Speaker 3: motivation steam.

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Speaker 2: That was the who the hell of the guys?

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Speaker 3: Watford are thrown out there and attack today and like

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Speaker 3: they were really bad.

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Speaker 2: Going forward.

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Speaker 3: They had six shots point thirty nine expected goals against

337
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Speaker 3: Everton at home.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's true.

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Speaker 3: That's bad, uh, And so that's not great if you're

340
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Speaker 3: looking to back them in this match. Lester does have

341
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Speaker 3: a lot more firepower than Everton right now. They have

342
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,360
Speaker 3: been creating chances and their attack is pretty good. Their

343
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Speaker 3: defense is of course worse. But think about that. Think

344
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Speaker 3: about the market for a second. Everton closed minus one

345
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Speaker 3: eighty against this team today. Lester, who I think we

346
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Speaker 3: can agree is marginally better, maybe even solidly better than Everton,

347
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Speaker 3: is now plus one fifteen on the road and that's insane.

348
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Speaker 3: And so you know, maybe Watford's getting guys back, but

349
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Speaker 3: I can't bet them at this number unless they're all

350
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Speaker 3: back and something else, you know, like that, Lester takes

351
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Speaker 3: more money that they're on odds on and I can

352
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Speaker 3: get a better number at WAD for plus a half

353
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Speaker 3: because otherwise I have no interest in this game.

354
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Speaker 4: A big game now that we've gotten through those two

355
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Speaker 4: is Leeds plus one fifty five Brighton. They're hosting Brighton

356
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Speaker 4: plus one sixty five. The draw here is plus two fifty.

357
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Speaker 4: Leeds United is in eighteenth place, so they are in

358
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Speaker 4: the relegation zone right now. They're minus one fifty to

359
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Speaker 4: be relegated, sitting on thirty four points. They've played one

360
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 4: more game than Everton and Burnley, so this is their

361
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,600
Speaker 4: second and last game on the season. I believe it's

362
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 4: Brentford after Brighton, so not neither of these upcoming matches

363
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 4: are easy for them. Burnley on thirty four points, they're

364
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,000
Speaker 4: plus one fifty to go down. Everden thirty six points,

365
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 4: twelve to one. Burnley, as we said, has Tottenham coming

366
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 4: up next. Everdon plays Brentford Palace and then Arsenal, So

367
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Speaker 4: Leeds is going through something like I think what they're

368
00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 4: going through is something very similar to what Everdon was

369
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 4: going through when they capitulated in late January till like

370
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Speaker 4: mid March, culminating with that loss to Burnley. Daniel James

371
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 4: Luke ailing straight reds in back to back matches. They're

372
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,719
Speaker 4: important players for Leeds they're now out, they're already going

373
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Speaker 4: through an injury crisis. On our podcast with Fabrizio Romano,

374
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Speaker 4: he had noted that Rafina is basically angling for a

375
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Speaker 4: move to Barcelona, and so you don't know, I mean,

376
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,679
Speaker 4: you hate to question anything, but you know that that

377
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 4: is happening. And he's an obviously an incredibly important player

378
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 4: for Jesse Marsh's side. And that's just off the field stuff,

379
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,360
Speaker 4: right Like the on the field stuff doesn't look good

380
00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 4: either for leads right now, and you're playing a Brighton

381
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 4: team that will just pick you apart, and they'll pick

382
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 4: this this kind of lead style apart passed through. It

383
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:40,880
Speaker 4: passed through that man marking system where you know, now

384
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,879
Speaker 4: it's modified I guess under March. But still you know

385
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 4: he's trying to be up tempo and that's the type

386
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 4: of side that Brighton should pass through without a problem.

387
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,400
Speaker 4: I do think the lines look about right. I would

388
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 4: possibly look at Brighton as an underdog just because of

389
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 4: the way things are going with Leeds, but I would

390
00:17:58,840 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 4: need a little bit more.

391
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:02,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I don't show value on leads here,

392
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:04,880
Speaker 3: which is ideal because I didn't really I really didn't

393
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 3: want to bet them but I don't know what to

394
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 3: make of the last two matches. You said it right,

395
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 3: like we can kind of throw out the data from

396
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 3: it because you get a red card against Arsenal, you

397
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 3: get a red card against Chelsea, and those matches become

398
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 3: very different situations.

399
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 2: But now they don't have these guys.

400
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 3: So like they're out and they already had, you know,

401
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 3: injury issues defensively, and they lose James, who's probably the

402
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 3: one of the other key attackers, sides Raphini of course

403
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,920
Speaker 3: and Rodrigo, and so now it's like, all right.

404
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 2: Who's left. I mean, they don't have a ton of depth.

405
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 3: That was a major issue with them, and now they're

406
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 3: dealing with all this injury issue. So I can't back

407
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 3: Leads here. I'm now officially concerned. I mean I was

408
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 3: concerned before, but we're like def con two with Leads.

409
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,360
Speaker 3: As far as getting relegated here, it seems like they're

410
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: the team that's going to.

411
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 2: End up there.

412
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,639
Speaker 3: With that being said, Brighton is going to probably be

413
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 3: flat here. I mean they've been up for a while.

414
00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 3: I mean Saturday was so much fun against Manchester United,

415
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:01,120
Speaker 3: and then they had the winn against Arsenal.

416
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 2: The winn against Spurs, so.

417
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 3: They are going to be probably flat here, and you figure,

418
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 3: you know, one last hurrah at home next weekend is

419
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 3: going to be the last Brighton you know, all in spots,

420
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 3: So they could be flat here, and I think it's

421
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 3: a very real possibility. But Brighton also dominated the reverse

422
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 3: fixture with ease. I mean, they had over one and

423
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 3: a half expected goals. They were throttling the Leads net

424
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 3: just never quite found the winner. It was a classic

425
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 3: Brighton performance. And I'm concerned for Leads here. I just

426
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 3: I just don't know how deep we're going into this

427
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 3: bench now and they're being inflated. I mean, my projections,

428
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 3: I'm generally high on both of these teams. I've got

429
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,880
Speaker 3: Brighton as a favorite. There's like dog clearly Leads getting

430
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 3: juiced up because of the must win motivational number and factor,

431
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 3: and so.

432
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 2: I'm probably passing here as well.

433
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 4: A couple a couple of things to note about this game.

434
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, Leads Leads plays Brighton. They're at home on

435
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,680
Speaker 4: Leads and then they go to Brentford for their season finale.

436
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 4: They need at least, you know, one point to get

437
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 4: out of the delegation zone, and they would need Burnley

438
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 4: to not pick up a point in their last three matches. Burnley,

439
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 4: like I said, they have Spurs Villa again and then

440
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 4: Newcastle Newcastle to close it out. So it's not an

441
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 4: outlandish to suggest that Burnley loses its last four matches,

442
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 4: going back to the villain match from last weekend. But

443
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:18,679
Speaker 4: I think you know, if you are looking at this

444
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 4: as a as Leads United looking at these, this is

445
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 4: like one hundred and eighty minute Cup Cup tie. This

446
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 4: is the part of the Cup tie that you would

447
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 4: say we need to get three points out of this

448
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 4: this one because going on the road against a team

449
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,959
Speaker 4: that's just been dynamite at home all season and like

450
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: Brighton will be a tough team to beat in a

451
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 4: similar fashion. So I'm expecting, you know, Leads to to

452
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,680
Speaker 4: be like a little more aggressive going going forward, going

453
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 4: for the win here, And that makes me feel a

454
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 4: little less comfortable betting them, honestly, because they are so

455
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 4: mistake prone and Brighton are just so good at at

456
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 4: you know, turning mistakes into opportunities going to board. Of

457
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 4: course they don't finish them off all the time, but yeah,

458
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 4: that's a different story. And also lately, yeah, but that's

459
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 4: like you just said, that's.

460
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: When you want to go against Brighton.

461
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 2: Right likes why they're a fam I mean, you know, right,

462
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: I mean they're not actually a favorite here.

463
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, pick up right.

464
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 4: And one other thing to notice that Burnley plays at

465
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 4: seven am on Sunday, Leads plays at nine am, and

466
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 4: then Everton plays at eleven thirty am. Those three teams

467
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 4: obviously battling for that that last those last two spots

468
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 4: in the Premier League next year. So let's say Burnley

469
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 4: lose two Spurs. That does change things maybe a little bit. Obviously,

470
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 4: they're still going to want to win and go go

471
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 4: go for the three points because of like I just said,

472
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: with their schedule, but they can maybe then be a

473
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 4: little more conservative. If Burnley win, then it's like you

474
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 4: just got to throw all caution to the wind if

475
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 4: your leads and go for the go for the win, right,

476
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 4: because not only do you have to catch Burnley by winning,

477
00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: then you also have to catch uh'll, you'll have to

478
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 4: beat them in the following weekend as well. And they

479
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 4: have a game in hand because of the goal differential

480
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 4: that Leads is going to they have the worst goal

481
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 4: differential the three teams.

482
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things just.

483
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 4: To consider with this line, and it's it's the match

484
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 4: that I'm most interested in watching, obviously as an everating

485
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 4: fan of this block, but I think for Neutrals too,

486
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 4: it will be the most interesting one to kind of

487
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 4: sit back and just watch how this one unfolds, because

488
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 4: it could go so many different ways, but because at

489
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 4: the same time, like this leads team what their biggest

490
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 4: kind of strength in under Marcelo Bielsa in his tenuere

491
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 4: going into last year and for much of this year,

492
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 4: even when they aren't going well, is it they just

493
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 4: didn't give up like this. They went ninety minutes no

494
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 4: matter what the score was, So you're not going to

495
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 4: get like a soft effort out of them. Anyways, Long

496
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 4: story short, I got nothing for this one, and neither

497
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: do you. I do have betting interest in the next game,

498
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 4: though it's a weird card for betters, but asen Villa

499
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 4: they're hosting Crystal Palace plus two forty five. Palace is

500
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 4: the underdog Billip plus one oh five at home the

501
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 4: draw plus two fifty five.

502
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: I like Palace.

503
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: I think they're just a better team. You're getting a

504
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 4: good number on them. If you look at the stats

505
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 4: on the year, Crystal Palace have the sixth sixth best

506
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 4: expected gold differentially EPL better than west Ham. They're you know,

507
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 4: in terms of the expected points table, they're a Big

508
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 4: six club. It's just been an incredibly impressive season for

509
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 4: this team. It looks like a meaningless game for both sides.

510
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 4: But Palace have an opportunity to get crash the top ten.

511
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: They can finish as high as eighth if if they

512
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 4: want so, or if they get the results. So I

513
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 4: like Palace on the spot. I think it's we've talked

514
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 4: about their struggles on the road. They've started to play

515
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 4: better away from Seller's Park, so you're getting a good

516
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 4: number on a good team, I think the better team,

517
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 4: especially this year.

518
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: So it's Palace for me here.

519
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 2: I lean that way.

520
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,959
Speaker 3: I show a little bit of value on Palace. I

521
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: have them as a slightly better team. They're on the

522
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: road where they've been much worse this season. But I'm

523
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 3: actually targeting the total here. I'm gonna play the under

524
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 3: two and a half. I just think both defenses kind

525
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 3: of have the edge. We're dealing with two of the

526
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: better defense in the Premier League. Two attacks that have

527
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: struggled at various points of the season. Both teams like

528
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 3: to play on the counter a little bit, transitioning better

529
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 3: in those situations, and I think when you get those

530
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 3: two teams.

531
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: Playing at the end of the season with not a

532
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: lot on the line, you.

533
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: Tend to have a potential for a bit of a

534
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 3: flat game that just doesn't have a ton in it.

535
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:27,880
Speaker 2: To begin with, I show value on the ander.

536
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: I only have two point three goals projected two point

537
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 3: five under his minus one ten. Pallas do have some

538
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 3: extra rest here, which also benefits you. I think, you know,

539
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 3: playing Liverpool on a Tuesday is tough and then you

540
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 3: know you have to you know it is five days,

541
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 3: so it's not the end of the world, but it

542
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 3: also is a tough fixture to have in the midweek. Villa,

543
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 3: when you look at their underlying numbers, they've been a

544
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 3: team who's underperformed defensively most of the season, and that's

545
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 3: really where the Gerrard differences between performance and results has

546
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 3: come from. The fact their defense is never really run well.

547
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: And some of that was Martinez had a bad shot

548
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,719
Speaker 3: stopping year, and some of that was just bad finishing

549
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 3: luck by their opponents, and Palace has had.

550
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 2: Various issues creating chances away from home.

551
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 3: They're fourth lowest in the league with point eight eight

552
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: expected goals per match on the road, so they've really

553
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: struggled to create away from Selhurst. So I'm going under

554
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 3: two and a half here. I like it a lot,

555
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 3: and you know, it's kind of like a tease. Palace

556
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: hosts United next weekend. They haven't opened. I haven't found

557
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 3: a line yet. Draft Kings is not doing look Aheads

558
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 3: for you know, motivational reasons. But I can't wait to

559
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 3: see what the line is for that match because if

560
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 3: United's a favored again like they were.

561
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: Home against Brighton, that's on the road again against Brighton.

562
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 2: That's pretty scary.

563
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 4: It's the Brighton situation all over again. And yeah, then

564
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 4: Palace plays Everden at Goodison Park in between that, so

565
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 4: it's it's they have a lot to say here for

566
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 4: for how I go into the summer Crystal Palace and

567
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 4: it's a team that I've been back.

568
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: I think I think you should be found pretty good.

569
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 2: I think, look, we're.

570
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 4: Talking about everyting now, we can do it now right

571
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 4: eleven thirty am on Sunday. It's evident they're even money

572
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 4: at home against Brentford. Plus two sixty five is plus

573
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 4: two sixty five as well. I do feel good the

574
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 4: probabilities is certainly in evidence favor here.

575
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: Great road point today.

576
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: It was a great road point at Watford.

577
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 4: They ended Watford's twelve game losing streak at home.

578
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 1: Congratulations.

579
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 4: But I do think it was it was interesting the

580
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 4: approach from Lampard, which was they set up in that

581
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 4: same five four to one that they played against Leicester

582
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 4: and Chelsea and Man United and Liverpool and Liverpool. They

583
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 4: did it against Watford and I almost looked at it

584
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,479
Speaker 4: as a We're just looking at this as almost a

585
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: practice game to keep this shape and to continue to

586
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 4: stay in form with with the shape which they'll be

587
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 4: playing against their remaining opponents, especially Brentford, a team that

588
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 4: loves to have the ball. They'll definitely do it against

589
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: Arsenal on the road and they'll likely do it against

590
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 4: Pallace as well. And I think this matchup it sounds

591
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,080
Speaker 4: crazy and I'm saying this matchup suits Everden better in

592
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 4: the Watford one. I'm not saying that they're more likely

593
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 4: to beat Brentford than they were to beat Watford.

594
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 1: They're not.

595
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 4: The odds told us that. However, just this this with

596
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 4: the way that everytton is setting up with with what

597
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 4: Lampard's trying to get them to do, they're on the

598
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 4: same page against these sides like Brentford where they're gonna

599
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 4: up so orb as much pressure and then try to

600
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 4: hit on the counter with Demari Gray for Charlison and

601
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 4: Anthony Gordon, it's been working. They've They've done a really

602
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 4: good job with those two mid blocks in front, and

603
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 4: Fabian delf and Ducrey have been really good in front

604
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 4: of the back five. So it's it's a tricky spot

605
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 4: to handicap because I think if you show me this

606
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 4: number a few weeks ago, I would say it's it's

607
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 4: Brentford all day. But things have changed and I think

608
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 4: that this is now turning into a trickier spot for

609
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 4: Brentford against a team that is been in great form

610
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 4: at home as well. So it's I'm gonna likely pass.

611
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 4: I have enough riding on this game as a fan,

612
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 4: as an evident fan, but like you said, I do

613
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 4: think that they have you know, they're twelve to one

614
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 4: to go down now. They were odds on what eighteen

615
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 4: days ago, about so of course I feel much better

616
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 4: now than I did then.

617
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: However, like it's there's no it's Brentford, Palace and Arsenal.

618
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 4: So like I was just saying with Burnley, it's not

619
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 4: there's no If Everyden lose these last three games, nobody's

620
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 4: going to be like all that shocked because those teams

621
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 4: are all better than Everton, and I know two of

622
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 4: them at our home.

623
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: But it's still they're gonna need to get at.

624
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 4: Least two points I think out of these last three games,

625
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 4: or honestly two points at least two points out of

626
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 4: Brentford and Palace to avoid a nightmare scenario where they're

627
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 4: going to need to get something out of that Arsenal

628
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 4: game on the last day. But how do you see

629
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 4: Brentford and the Coffees.

630
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's the same thing from Watford. You know,

631
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: they're favored against Brentford at home, and I understand that

632
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: the motivation is different, But I don't think Brentford's a

633
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 3: team who looks like they've quit. I mean, they just

634
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 3: had a very inspired performance last weekend. They've been one

635
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: of the better teams in the league over the second half.

636
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 3: You know, they had that dip in January February, but

637
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 3: since then they've been flying, pulling off good wins. They

638
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: thrash Southampton and so I don't expect Brentford to have

639
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: a bad effort here and to be on the beach.

640
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 3: I don't see that for a team who's in their

641
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 3: first year in the prem who wants to seal off

642
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 3: a potential. I mean they have an outside chance at

643
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 3: the top ten as well, depending on how their final

644
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 3: two results go, and they're playing a big role in

645
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 3: the relegation fight. And you know, a team like Brentford

646
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: wants to be able to play spoiler for these bigger,

647
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 3: so called bigger clubs, and I mean Leeds and Everton

648
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: are bigger clubs and they have a big say kind

649
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: of in who gets relegated over the next week and

650
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 3: a half.

651
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 2: And so I think that you factor that in.

652
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: I'm not quite sure how Everton is all of a

653
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: sudden a plus one hundred favorite at home, even at

654
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 3: home where they have been better. But let's consider those wins, right,

655
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: So you beat United, who was incredibly flat in that game,

656
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 3: You catch a couple of bounces to beat Chelsea. Pickford

657
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 3: has a great game. Credit to him, same thing with Lester.

658
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 3: I think Brentford's better than Lester. And what was Everton?

659
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: Everton was just what an underdog at Leicester. Now they're

660
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: pretty sizable favorite at home.

661
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 4: I think they ended up as it was close to

662
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 4: a pick them by the time it closed, right.

663
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 3: But when they played Lester like three weeks ago, they

664
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 3: were they were like yeah, yeah, they were like a

665
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 3: slight favorite, right right, yep. And now they're like a

666
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 3: sizeable favorite against Brentford. So I can't get there. I

667
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: can't get there on the number. So I have a

668
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: strong lean toward Brentford. I probably wound up flying them

669
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: come Sunday. I just I'm very surprised by this number.

670
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 3: And as long as Brentford healthy, which they seem to be,

671
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: and Everton's set piece defense is a major question mark

672
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: here too. It's been better, been better, to say it

673
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: much better better, but it wasn't good the first half,

674
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: first two thirds, and so Brentford might be able to

675
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: exploit that.

676
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, wouldn't be surprised at all. It's uh, this, I

677
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: don't I.

678
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 3: Would go as far to say that Everton, I gotta

679
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 3: look at it now. So it's it's two points, right,

680
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 3: to plus they have goal difference again to.

681
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: Ensure to ensure safety.

682
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 4: Right, so Leads has six maximum six points left, Everyding

683
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 4: has their thirty. They're two points ahead of Leads, right,

684
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 4: so they would need four points to be mathematically safe.

685
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: Right, basically, you know, unless they lose a Yeah.

686
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: I think I think two is enough. So I think

687
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: they're going to get well built.

688
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: Here's what I'm gonna say, also taking they're taking a

689
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: point from Marshall on the final day if they need it.

690
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 4: Here's the other thing, right, and say it again, just

691
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: how it's going to be, same point, same point I

692
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 4: just made with Leads. Burnley's playing at seven am, Leeds

693
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 4: is playing at nine am. Everdence playing at eleven thirty am.

694
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: So this could go a number of different ways. Where

695
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 4: like Burnley and Leads both win evidence back in the

696
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 4: relegation zone against Brentford, right at home need a win

697
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 4: or at least a point, right, that's unlikely of course,

698
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 4: Leads is U plus one fifty five burn least nine

699
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 4: to one, So of course it's unlike likely that that's

700
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 4: the scenario. But the point is that we'll Everyden will

701
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 4: know kind of what the job ask at hand. Is

702
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 4: because if Leeds do lose, then yeah, it's one point

703
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: that they need for safety. And I would imagine we'd

704
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 4: see a very similar performance to what we saw today,

705
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 4: which was we will basically do everything in our power

706
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 4: to limit to lose. Yeah, to limit the mistake.

707
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, And like Brentford has better attackers than Watford. Like again,

708
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 3: I think a lot of today just came down to

709
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 3: Watford playing some really bad players and not having any

710
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 3: threat on the attack and point three to nine x G.

711
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: But I do, yeah, I think I think this is

712
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: one where you know, you're not usually you know, for me,

713
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 3: I'll put a lot of bets in the app Wednesday Thursday,

714
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 3: because we kind of know where the market's going to

715
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 3: settle generally. This is this is a situation where I'm

716
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 3: I'm kind of waiting across the board and get as

717
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: we get a little closer to Sunday, because you tend

718
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 3: to get some wonkier lineups and the market tends to

719
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: get a little bit out of whack, especially generally shaded

720
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: toward these must win teams. I said this on the

721
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: last episode, everyting got steamed eighty cents.

722
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: They might get seem again.

723
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna wait until we get closer to game time,

724
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 3: and as long as it's the same number, I'm going

725
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 3: to probably play Brentford, and then I may even get

726
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 3: a better number. If we can get like a plus

727
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 3: one ten one twenty on Brentford.

728
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: A plus a half.

729
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 2: I like it even more.

730
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 3: I you know, and I understand, you know, we talk

731
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 3: about closing line value sometimes, but at the end of

732
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: the day, the market just gets out of whack at.

733
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: The end of the seasons if Leads loses.

734
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 4: I think the under all of a sudden it becomes

735
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 4: a very very viable bet in Everton and Brentford, because,

736
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 4: like I said, Everden will just park, park the bus

737
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 4: and try to just get over the line.

738
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: With the point in.

739
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 4: That contest, all right, Monday Night football Newcastle plus three

740
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 4: ten hosting Arsenal minus one fifteen.

741
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: The draw here is plus two sixty five.

742
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 4: We're normally in the camp saying that Newcastle is inflated.

743
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 4: It's just the market has loved them for since Eddie

744
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 4: how basically took over. It's it's not gone well for

745
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 4: us thinking that, but I actually think that they're worth

746
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 4: consider iteration here. Of course, we'll wait to see what

747
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 4: happens with Tottenham and Arsenal on Thursday. But if I'm

748
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: gonna like Newcastle more, if Arsenal loses against Tottenham and

749
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 4: this is all of a sudden a must win game

750
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 4: for them, is I think you know, usually we'll see

751
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 4: the market react poorly on a team or move away

752
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 4: from the line if if the team loses. However, like

753
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 4: we've been talking about, more bookmakers bake motivation into into

754
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 4: the lines, and I think that Arsenal will take money

755
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 4: if they need the win to keep pace with Tottenham,

756
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 4: especially if Tottenham beats Burnley on Sunday morning. So I've

757
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 4: Newcastle circles, Uh, I think that three to one at

758
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 4: home in a in as to close out a season

759
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 4: that has uh to get a season that has been

760
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:47,720
Speaker 4: very impressive and encouraging for the fan base going forward.

761
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 4: Of course, uh, you know, we we we're not going

762
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 4: to condone the people that took over the club, but

763
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 4: the the fact of the matter is they they've done

764
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 4: well uh since Eddie House to take it over, and

765
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 4: they'll be looking at head to next year and so

766
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 4: they're gonna want to finish on a high note in

767
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 4: front of their fans and they're a good team. You know,

768
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 4: I don't think they're as good as maybe people say,

769
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 4: but they're still solid, you know, in that eight to

770
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 4: twelve mark right now, and that's good enough at home

771
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 4: in what should be an inflated Arsenal line to go against.

772
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 3: You know, I think we should maybe we'll touch on

773
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: this Sunday after we know the result, because we'll be

774
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 3: doing a Sunday pod. There's like five midweek games we

775
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 3: could maybe just touch on this again, because I do

776
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 3: think so much depends on Thursday. Right Either Arsenal have

777
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 3: clinched top four and they've won it Tottenham, or they

778
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 3: draw this match and Spurs don't get a result on

779
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 3: Sunday and they've clinched top four, or they lose this match,

780
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 3: Spurs beat Burnley and then they're in a must win

781
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 3: situation to stay above Spurs. So there's just so much

782
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 3: that rides and like, yeah, narrative street like is overrated

783
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 3: this time of year, and I feel like we've kind

784
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: of hammered that. So I'm not gonna keep saying it,

785
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 3: but the market will react, and until we know where

786
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 3: the market's going on this, I don't want to bet it.

787
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: And but but with that being said, in terms of

788
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,399
Speaker 3: like my projected number, I'm right on the number.

789
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: I've got Arsenal minus one twenty two.

790
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 3: They're minus one fifteen, so I have no interest in

791
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 3: betting either side at the current number. But again, if

792
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 3: Arsenal isn't a Musclan spot they get juiced up, they're

793
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 3: minus one fifty minus one forty. They're a Newcastle at

794
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 3: home plus a half is probably going to be a bet.

795
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 3: With the pressure, you know, building on Arsenal to get

796
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 3: the result, we will see. I don't know where we're

797
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 3: going to be at that point. Newcastle has regressed a

798
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 3: little bit now. Granted they played Liverpool and City and

799
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 3: you know they got thrashed, but what can you say,

800
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 3: it's Liverpool and City. Depping said they have fallen back

801
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: to fourteenth, which is coincidentally right where I now have

802
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 3: them in my Power ratings, and so I feel pretty

803
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 3: good about my read on Newcastle. I think the market

804
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 3: I was a little low on them. I think they

805
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 3: got some pretty fortunate results. Then they have fallen off.

806
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 3: The market has corrected them downward, and we're sitting here

807
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 3: and there about right. So at the current number, I

808
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 3: probably wouldn't pay the match, but again we're gonna have

809
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 3: to wait to see what happens, and we'll talk about

810
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 3: this on Sunday Nights Pod.

811
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 4: All right, let's uh now move into the rest of Europe.

812
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 4: I'll be sitting out basically everything, just with NHL playoffs

813
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 4: and the everd in relegation Battleman, I'm fighting a warren

814
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: on so many fronts, so I'm going to be passing

815
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 4: all cross plus like the motivational lines.

816
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: Everything's just so out of whack here.

817
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 2: This is crazy.

818
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: So some goo get we get down the street.

819
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: You know.

820
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna flip it over to you.

821
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 4: You can go through Bundesliga, La Liga, Syria and Legal

822
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 4: before we get to our underdogs.

823
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 3: All right, so we'll start in the Bundesliga. We have

824
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 3: to say goodbye to my second favorite league, the Bundesliga,

825
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: because they are done this weekend. It is the final Saturday,

826
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: so all nine matches, all eighteen teams will play nine

827
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 3: thirty am Eastern time.

828
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 2: You can find it on ESPN plus. I'm very excited

829
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 2: for it.

830
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 3: There's not a ton on the line, of course, the

831
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 3: title is decided. Relegation is basically decided unless BLFL goes

832
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 3: out and wins by five plus goals. It's going to

833
00:37:59,960 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 3: be Bilafeld and Firth getting relegated, and Stutgart is has

834
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 3: a chance to get out of the playoff if they win.

835
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: So that's I guess, you know, that's the interesting thing.

836
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: They have Coln at home.

837
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 3: Coln is undervalued, but they're also chasing Europe, so Colin

838
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 3: is a potential look if you're looking for like the

839
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 3: motivational line, but the one line I can't get to

840
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 3: and there's no motivation at stake. Fert is already relegated,

841
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 3: Osburg is safe. Osburg is minus one eighty at home

842
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: against Fert. I understand FT collapse against Dortmann, but they've

843
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 3: played really well in that match. Now they're plus one

844
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 3: against FT or against Osburg. Rather, I only make them

845
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 3: plus about four tenths of a goal. I've got Osburg

846
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: right around even money to win the match. They're a

847
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 3: slightly better team, they're at home. They're not good enough

848
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 3: to be laying a full goal, so I'm gonna take

849
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 3: great their Firth plus one. Leverkuzen and Freiburg will be

850
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 3: the big match if you're looking to watch any of

851
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 3: them that have anything on the line because Freiburg is

852
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 3: trying to crash the top four. Unlikely to get there though,

853
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 3: because Leipstick is probably going to beat Bilafeld on Saturday.

854
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 3: So that's it for the Bundesliga. It's been a great

855
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 3: year except for Gladbach hopefully Goldbock. That's a result for

856
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 3: that I have. But we'll move on to Italy. We've

857
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 3: got two weeks ago in Italy. The title race is

858
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 3: pretty much all we have left. The relegation battle is

859
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 3: also someone interesting at the bottom. But I'm going to

860
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 3: the mid table for my favorite bet and it's Tarno

861
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 3: draw no bet plus one thirty on the road at Verona.

862
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 3: Verona took an early lead against Milan last weekend, then

863
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 3: they collapsed. I was not particularly impressed with their performance.

864
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 3: They got caught out defending in transition often and.

865
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 2: Milan was able to really exploit them.

866
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about Verona and why they're overrated,

867
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: because their attack has run ridiculously well all season. Well,

868
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: now they get one of the best defenses in all

869
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 3: of Italy and all of Europe. It's gonna be very

870
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 3: hard for them to score and Toarino is just a

871
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 3: great underdog They've paid us off well and I still

872
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: think they're undervalued.

873
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: I'm going to take them plus one thirty. I've got

874
00:39:58,200 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 2: this is a pickup. We got a lot.

875
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 3: They also have two matches left. Atletico Madrid did clinch

876
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 3: top four, but so did Sevilla. They're playing each other.

877
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 3: I like at Letti at home plus one twenty on

878
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 3: the money line. I project them odds on. They're much

879
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 3: better team. As the rematch of earlier this season, at

880
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 3: Leti dominated the match, lost two to one on some flukes.

881
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 3: Savia has been a run of flukes all season long.

882
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 3: They're not good, extremely overrated side. I'm taking at Letti

883
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: to win at home, final home match of the season,

884
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 3: expect them to show up. And then in league I'm

885
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 3: taking stud Dreams BJ's new squad on the road against

886
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 3: Sennaten classic relegation line. Sanatan is minus one twenty at

887
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 3: home against Reams Dams. Pretty good defensively and should not

888
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 3: be that number, so I'm taking them plus half.

889
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 4: All right, I'll give you a breather here and do

890
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 4: my underdog first. It's Crystal Palace. They're plus two forty

891
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: five on the road against essen Villa. Crystal Palace sixth

892
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 4: best expectacle differential on the season Patrick Vieira's team. The

893
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 4: job he's done with this team has just been incredible.

894
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 4: If they had maybe a little bit of better luck

895
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 4: in the fall, in kind of the dog days of

896
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 4: the winter, this team could be challenging for you know,

897
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 4: Europa Conference League spot ory, maybe even a Europa League spot. Nonetheless,

898
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,959
Speaker 4: top ten finished for the side is a big, big deal,

899
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 4: so they will be fully motivated here and they're in

900
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 4: decent form. They've not been defeated in the last three

901
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 4: matches and the one draw that they had in that

902
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 4: batch was a dominant performance against Leeds that they just

903
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 4: didn't finish their chances. They won the expected goals battle

904
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 4: one point six three point three seven in that one.

905
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 4: Then they defeated Southampton in a good performance away from home,

906
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 4: and then you know, laid a beat down on on

907
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 4: Rory Hodgson's Watford. Although finished one nil, it was not

908
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 4: that close at all, two point five too point five or.

909
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 1: Less expected goals in that one.

910
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 4: So I like Palace's form, I like the spot, and

911
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 4: I like the fact that they are by expected goal

912
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 4: differential the sixth best team in Europe INSU in the

913
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 4: Premier League Europe would be maybe a step too far

914
00:41:58,640 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 4: for the team.

915
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: Maybe they might be my six favorite team.

916
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 2: Here last year they're going to be best team ye.

917
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 4: Up, yeah yeah, but yeah, this Palace team continues to

918
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 4: be a team you want to be on at in

919
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 4: prices like this. So I'll takeing Palace plus two forty

920
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 4: five on the road. It's my favorite dog.

921
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 3: Are we not going to talk about last week and

922
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 3: the how close we came on the one forty to one.

923
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just sick and tired of it.

924
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 3: I'm ready for the season to end so I don't

925
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 3: have to deal with this pain every single weekend of

926
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 3: us hitting the first two legs like run, I'd much

927
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 3: rather Actually that's not true, because you know we're here

928
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 3: for the journey, right, but in some weeks I would

929
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 3: much rather lose the first leg than have to drag

930
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 3: it all the way out and have Taughtenham to take

931
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: a one zer lead on Liverpool, a result that mattered

932
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 3: a lot to me as well as you know our podcast,

933
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 3: and then to have a deflected luck box goal and

934
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 3: then in stoppage time Kuoy Beer heads it back across

935
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 3: the goal instead.

936
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 2: Of into the open corner of the goal. Very frustrating.

937
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 3: That being said, take it Atalanta plus three thirty. It

938
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: feels like it's pickets. Last charge hopefully goes better than that.

939
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 3: We'll go by Alamo, you know, the last stand of Atalanta.

940
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 3: It seems like the wheels are coming off of the club.

941
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 3: Shouldn't go that far, but of the golden era of

942
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 3: the club where they were the most dominant team in

943
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 3: Italy over a four year period, and now they're starting

944
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 3: to slip as their older strikers are aging and not

945
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: quite producing. And I'll be honest, I'm sad about it,

946
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 3: but Milan's a little overvalued here. They're at home, they're

947
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 3: chasing the Scudetto and Atalanta is still very dangerous, and

948
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 3: I think at plus three thirty it's a very good

949
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: price to fade Milan as they chase the Scudetto.

950
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: I will say, just real quick on that one hundred

951
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 4: and forty to one that didn't come through. People are

952
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 4: catching on that we're doing well at picking two out

953
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 4: of three and they'll either round robin them or you know,

954
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 4: maybe rolling parlay or just bet these three teams at

955
00:43:58,120 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 4: sides rather.

956
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 3: Than well, yeah, I usually I usually throw a couple

957
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 3: bucks on the on the on the parlay, but I'm

958
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 3: mostly betting the separate bets. I mean they're just better

959
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 3: ideas generally than trying to parlay. Well, you'll know one

960
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 3: hundred plus six hundred dogs.

961
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 4: You'll know we'll hit one when I forget to bet it.

962
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 4: The odds for this one are obviously a lot less

963
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,479
Speaker 4: robust because we don't have a third leg, because BJ

964
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,879
Speaker 4: like I said, is a new dat fourteen to one.

965
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 4: If our two teams come through here, it would be

966
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 4: just sad if we had a fourteen n I know

967
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 4: it would, because the whole point is that you just

968
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 4: need to hit one, and all of a sudden you're

969
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 4: extremely profitable. If we hit this one, which we'd still

970
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 4: we're still being the red in this exercise. All right,

971
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 4: let's move to our favorite bets for the Premier League.

972
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 4: I'll go first. I like Manchester City. If it ain't broke,

973
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:48,919
Speaker 4: don't fix it. Team total over two and a half

974
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 4: plus one twenty five. I actually don't hate the over

975
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 4: three and a half at better than three to one.

976
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 4: Last four games for Manchester City as they are ropping

977
00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 4: towards the title. Four games fourteen point one four expected

978
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 4: goals in nineteen goals scored. So yeah, sure they're due

979
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 4: for some regression, but even if they do regress, they're

980
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 4: still creating over three expected goals per game. So giving

981
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: me plus money on them to score at least three goals,

982
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,799
Speaker 4: I guess the west Ham defense that has been just

983
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 4: trending down for basically the entire second half of the season,

984
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 4: I'm going to take it.

985
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: City team total over two and a half of the

986
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: second straight week.

987
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 3: I'm going with an under aston Villa hosting Crystal Palace

988
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 3: under two and a half at minus one ten. This

989
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 3: is two of the better defenses in the Premier League

990
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 3: the entire season. Of course, Palace has been one of

991
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 3: the best surprise packages of the season. Defensively, there are

992
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 3: fourth and expected goals allowed, fourth and big scoring chances allowed.

993
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 3: Villa has not been efficient at turning attacks into shots

994
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 3: and into chances. They're eighteenth and big scoring chances and

995
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 3: only twelve in creating expected goals, despite pretty solid ball

996
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 3: progression numbers. Both these teams like to play in counter

997
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 3: attacking sits, but when they're playing one another, it has

998
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: the tendency to lead toward a bit of a stalemate,

999
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 3: and both teams are better defensively, struggle a bit in attack,

1000
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 3: and of course Palace only zero point eighty eight expected

1001
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,280
Speaker 3: goals away from home this season. That is the fourth

1002
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 3: worst in the prem so they have not been nearly

1003
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 3: as dynamite going forward when they're away from Seller's Park.

1004
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 2: I think this has all.

1005
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 3: The makings of a bit of a sleepy game, so

1006
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,399
Speaker 3: I'm going under two and a half at minus one ten.

1007
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 1: All right, That does it for another episode of one

1008
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: to goal two in one day for you and I, Anthony.

1009
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 4: Make sure you listen to our interview with Fabrizio Romano

1010
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 4: and then listen of course, listen to every episode and

1011
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 4: we'll catch you again on the other side of the

1012
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 4: weekend one day morning, as we head towards the final

1013
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 4: weekend of the Premier League season.